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Either keep holding the gains or enjoy the show fully
Fresh market data is here, and the two biggest stars in the crypto world are putting on a strong performance today: BTC is oscillating around 78785, while ETH is strengthening in sync, surging to 2494. The slight dip in US stocks doesn't matter; Nvidia single-handedly held the market up, with earnings far exceeding expectations, pushing the after-hours session up over 4%.
The macro picture has suddenly shifted. PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, month-over-month 0.2%, both exceeding expectations, confirming inflation stickiness once again. So the most critical variable this week falls on Wash's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. CME data shows that maintaining rates in September is still the baseline scenario, but with inflation data this hot, the pricing for rate hikes stubbornly refuses to fully retreat—it's like the person left but the shoes remain at the door.
Breaking down Nvidia's earnings: Q2 revenue $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year; data center revenue $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year; EPS $2.22, up 120% year-over-year. The sustainability of AI demand has now been truly validated with real money, and order visibility has significantly improved. But don't get ahead of yourself—the pre-market 4%+ gain started to be digested during the session, indicating the market had already priced in part of the earnings ahead of time, essentially selling the good news with the left hand and realizing expectations with the right.
On the geopolitical front, Trump talked about Iran returning to the negotiating table: no timetable, not in a hurry at all. Since he's not in a rush, the market's expectations for geopolitical easing have cooled by half.
Finally, let's talk about the main event. BTC is currently at 78785, with heavy short liquidation pressure gathering between 79500 and 80000. Once it breaks 80,000, shorts will be squeezed and queued for takeoff; on the downside, heavy long liquidation is concentrated between 76500 and 78000. If it falls below 78000, leveraged longs will have to accelerate their exit. Both sides are minefields—one wrong move by BTC and it's lights out and instant noodles time.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC $QQQ
In July, during a live stream discussing Bitcoin and Nasdaq exchange rate conversion, I shared a chart showing the long-term comparison of the BTCUSD/NAS100 exchange rate.
1.
At that time, BTCUSD/NAS100 was around 2, now it is around 3.
In the previous cycle, Bitcoin's exchange rate dropped by 72%.
At the beginning of July, in this bear market cycle, Bitcoin has already fallen 65% relative to the Nasdaq.
2.
This chart is very interesting. Friends familiar with Bitcoin cycles can clearly see that the 4-year cycle is still valid.
From 2021 to 2025, the exchange rate peaks are all near 5.
The recent bull market's exchange rate peak did not break much higher.
Also, Bitcoin's exchange rate drop in each cycle is decreasing, with smaller fluctuations.
3.
Based on these signs, I predicted that in July and August the exchange rate would start to rebound, the probability of Bitcoin bottoming out would greatly increase, and there would be a relatively smooth upward trend.
Bitcoin already showed signs of a bottom reversal, so I increased my dollar-cost averaging and actively tried bottom-side long positions on Bitcoin.
Looking back now, all those predictions came true.
If you don't understand the capital flows in various markets or the complex institutional data, just simply look at this Bitcoin exchange rate chart, and you can basically understand the current position of Bitcoin and the Nasdaq. BTC's current rally is driven by "short squeeze ignition + ETF/spot real capital relay," and it currently looks more like a phase recovery rather than a top; however, it has entered a critical supply testing phase.
The current focus is on three levels:
Around 70.4K: Core defense/short-term holder cost zone; holding this means the overall bullish structure remains intact.
80–83K: First layer of supply absorption test.
83–86K: The real battleground between bulls and bears, also a resonance pressure zone involving multiple on-chain costs, chip supply, order books, and derivatives structures.
Next, don't guess the top; watch the capital:
ETF continues inflow + Spot CVD/large buy orders strong + sell walls gradually eaten away + OI/Funding not overheated → leans toward a genuine breakout.
Price surges, but spot weakens + sell walls increase + OI/Funding spikes → beware of false breakout and phase top.
Current judgment: 🟡 Slightly bullish, testing supply rather than confirming a top. Only a firm hold and absorption at 83–86K will mean further upside potential is unlocked.
Personal research and sharing, not investment advice #JaneStreet holds 5% of SanDisk, AI storage valuation under renewed scrutiny
"Jane Street holds over 5% of SanDisk_The $9 billion heavy position behind the AI storage layout"
Quant giant Jane Street just disclosed a blockbuster filing: increasing its stake in SanDisk more than fivefold, directly surpassing the 5% takeover threshold, holding a full $9 billion in chips.
Besides large-cap index funds, SanDisk has surged to become its largest single stock holding, leaving Apple and Nvidia far behind.
Many think SanDisk still sells ordinary USB drives, but after its independent listing, it has completely transformed into AI data center high-bandwidth storage.
The latest quarterly gross margin soared from just over 20% to 85%, and it signed a guaranteed minimum four-year contract worth over $93 billion with cloud giants.
Quant firms hold spot positions to market-make and hedge on exchange-traded options, earning liquidity spreads while positioning themselves at the core bottleneck of AI computing power. $BTC $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level BTC is just one step away from $80,000, and I am more inclined to believe it can break through this time
BTC is currently around $78,800, up 13.7% in the past 7 days, about 1.5% away from $80,000.
I am currently bullish, not because "$80,000 will definitely rise," but because the conditions for a breakout are gradually maturing.
First, $80,000 itself is the most direct short-term watershed. On August 28, about $6.44 billion in BTC options will expire, with a call/put nominal amount ratio of about 0.83, and a large number of options concentrated near $75,000 and $80,000, meaning the price has entered a highly sensitive zone.
What’s really interesting is: once BTC effectively breaks through $80,000, market makers’ hedging may further amplify upward volatility; conversely, if it falls below $75,000, it could trigger deleveraging.
Currently, the total market capitalization is about $2.65 trillion, still up 12.16% over 7 days, and BTC’s market dominance has risen from 58.81% to 59.65%, indicating this rally is still BTC-led.
Although derivatives open interest has risen 9.24% in the past 7 days and funding rates remain positive, there is no extreme leverage buildup. For me, this is healthier than "price surging + leverage crazily increasing."
So my judgment is very clear:
If $75,000 holds, I remain bullish; once $80,000 is firmly held, the market may shift from a consolidation breakout to acceleration.
What I’m most focused on next is not "whether it will hit $80,000," but:
After BTC breaks through $80,000, can it turn that into real support? $BTC $BICO
1. Chips are highly concentrated, with the top 100 wallets holding 96.58% of the chips; large whale holders control the vast majority of the coins, exerting strong market control.
2. Net capital outflow during the rally: The candlestick shows a big rise, but large and extra-large orders are selling, only small retail orders are entering to take over, a typical pattern of a pump-and-dump.
3. The token has no profit-sharing mechanism; project profits are not distributed to token holders; historically, large holders transfer coins to exchanges at highs to sell, which tends to suppress upward potential.
4. The market cap is very small, the market fluctuates wildly, and after a sharp rise, a rapid correction can occur at any time.
Currently, bulls and bears are fiercely battling; the bullish candlestick looks good, but the capital flow does not support a sustained rally.
Do not be fooled by short-term gains; chasing highs carries great risk. This is a personal view to see if it can hold above the 0.0326 high tonight. This time, the US sanctions on Iran have shifted from "sanctioning Iran" to "sanctioning those who do business with Iran."
New round of measures implemented:
Cryptocurrency, gold, technology, aviation, shipping—all are included.
More importantly, the US has started directly pressuring third countries:
Continuing financial and economic ties with Iran may face secondary sanctions or even be cut off from the US financial system.
Chinese companies and Asian trade networks have already appeared on the list.
But today's reaction in crude oil is quite unusual.
Normally, with sanctions escalating and supply risks rising, oil prices should go up.
Instead, Brent crude fell 3.9% yesterday and continued to drop to around $86 today.
The market seems to be starting to bet that:
The US is not prepared to continue relying on bombing to solve the Hormuz issue.
Next, it will rely on sanctions and negotiations to force Iran to hand over the shipping lanes.
Should I bottom-fish some VOO tonight 🤔 $BTC's real critical point
I think it's next Tuesday
These days, no matter how BTC fluctuates around $80,000, I think that's not the most important.
I'm now more focused on next Tuesday, September 1st.
On that day, the US will release the August ISM Manufacturing PMI. Last month's data surged to 55.6, showing economic resilience much stronger than market expectations.
#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest $BTC failed to break through 80,000 in the past two days. On August 25, it peaked at $81,238, then quickly fell back to around 79,000 and oscillated. 78K is support, while 80K-81K is strong resistance.
There are two reasons for the pullback:
First, the short squeeze fuel has run out. This rally from 63,000 to 81,000 saw about $3 billion in short positions liquidated within two days. Once the forced liquidation-driven violent surge ends, mechanical buying stops, and profit-taking follows.
Second, the PCE data dampened the bulls' enthusiasm. July's PCE year-over-year was 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. The market priced in a 38% chance of a rate hike in September. The dollar surged to an eight-day high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield returned to 4.667%, hitting risk assets first.
For the shorts, now is the best window to escape.
The logic is straightforward: 80K-81K is a dense trading resistance zone, so every rebound near it is a golden opportunity to reduce positions; the fear and greed index is still at 71 in the greed zone, meaning sentiment hasn't been fully wiped out, and a rebound could happen anytime. Don't expect it to plunge straight to 50,000.
If 78K is truly broken on the daily chart, concentrated long leverage liquidations below will trigger a chain of forced liquidations, causing panic selling, and then you might be reluctant to close your positions.
Quietly closing short positions in the 79,000-81,000 resistance zone to lock in profits is much more reliable than betting on a one-sided move. This bottom was ground out, not smashed down—the best outcome for shorts is to exit during the consolidation, not to wait for a one-sided move and find themselves deeply trapped halfway up the mountain.The real Jackson Hole debate may not be about rate cuts.
Treasury Secretary Bessent wants lower long-term yields.
But Warsh has argued for letting markets play a bigger role in determining the cost of long-term money.
That creates a bigger question:
Who is really setting the cost of capital — policymakers or the bond market?
Bitcoin may be one of the clearest places to watch the answer.PCE exceeds expectations + Nvidia no surprise
The market holds its breath waiting for Wash's speech tomorrow night
Last night, the market's two most watched events both had results:
· PCE inflation data: year-on-year 3.7%, unchanged from last month, higher than the expected 3.6%. The probability of a rate hike in September rose to 38%, while expectations for a rate cut cooled down.
· Nvidia earnings report: barely met expectations, but no surprise beat.
The negative news has been partially digested by the market, but the US Treasury yield remains steady at 4.66%, and the US dollar index rebounded to 99.17, continuing to exert pressure on crypto prices.
Signals from on-chain capital flow
BTC previously surged above 81,000 but then faced resistance and fell back, currently oscillating around 78,600.
On-chain data reveals concerns:
· When the price hit the 81,000 high, long-term holders were continuously taking profits and cashing out
· US spot ETF buying momentum is weak, Coinbase trading premium remains negative
· Short-term new buying cannot temporarily absorb the selling pressure emerging at high levels
Key price levels reference
Support below:
· 77,000-77,500: first support zone
· 76,000: key strong support
· 73,500: mid-term trend watershed in this rally. If the price later tests above this level, it is a good opportunity for phased accumulation
From a long-term perspective, unless a major black swan event occurs, prices below 70,000 are unlikely to be seen again.
Resistance above:
· 81,500-82,500: resistance zone. Only by stabilizing above this range can bulls open a new upward space
Focus tomorrow night: Wash's speech
All remaining uncertainties this week are concentrated on the Fed Chair Wash's speech tomorrow night.
Dovish → market sees a short-term rebound
Hawkish → further drives price correction
Based on the current market environment, this speech is unlikely to provide very clear policy signals.
Direction undecided, better to wait for the shoe to drop before taking action.
$BTC
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 A true bull market is never a straight rise; it is a pattern of rising, pulling back, then rising again, continuously washing out those without patience. Currently, BTC still holds the strongest position in the entire market, but more and more capital has started flowing into ETH, SOL, SUI, and OKB, indicating the market is entering the second phase of capital rotation. Many ask if it's still possible to chase now. My answer is yes, you can participate, but do not go all in chasing highs. The more euphoric the sentiment, the more important it is to prioritize position management. Any 10% to 15% pullback could become the starting point for the next rally, not the end of the bull market. Next, I am focusing on three key signals: first, whether BTC continues to break previous highs with volume; second, whether ETH can sustain strength over BTC; third, whether on-chain activity for SOL and SUI continues to increase. As long as these three signals do not deteriorate, the bull market structure remains healthy. My strategy is simple: hold core positions in BTC and ETH, build growth positions in SOL, SUI, and OKB, take profits in batches during each rally, and buy back in batches during each pullback. Always keep some bullets in reserve. The market rewards not those who predict best, but those who execute discipline best. In the latter half of the bull market, controlling greed and protecting profits is more important than coin selection to make it to the end. #BTC #ETH #SOL #SUI #OKB #Bitcoin #Ethereum #OKXPlanet #BullMarket #Cryptocurrency @BTC动态 @ETH生态 @SOLANA中文 @SUI中文 @OKX华语 Now guessing whether the next round of the Bitcoin ecosystem will be BRC20, Runes, or Alkanes is really unpredictable.
Each round the hotspots change.
In the last round, everyone thought inscriptions were everything, then Runes came along, and surely there will be new things after that.
Those things that can keep being used no matter how the hotspots change.
Wallets, indexes, and trading markets hold that kind of position.
UniSat is now taking the path of supporting multiple protocols, and I’m starting to understand it more and more.
No need to bet on who will win, just set the table first.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 A quick chat about where BTC is headed next
First, the market situation: BTC is pacing back and forth around 78785, unable to rise or fall, just grinding. ETH is more promising, strengthening alongside and touching 2494. US stocks closed slightly down, but Nvidia alone held the market up, with earnings far exceeding expectations, jumping over 4% in after-hours trading.
Inflation isn't looking good: PCE year-over-year at 3.7%, month-over-month at 0.2%, both above expectations. This inflation stickiness is like chewing gum—it just won’t let go. So what Wash said at Jackson Hole on Friday is the biggest suspense this week. CME data shows the baseline scenario is to hold steady in September, but with data this hot, the "rate hike" drama is still waiting in the wings, not fully off the table.
Breaking down Nvidia’s report: Q2 revenue $96.2 billion, +106% year-over-year; data center $89 billion, +117% year-over-year; EPS $2.22, +120% year-over-year. Translation: AI demand isn’t just hype, it’s real money lining up, with order visibility maxed out. But don’t get too excited—after a 4%+ pre-market jump, the market started digesting, meaning some expectations were already priced in before the report.
On geopolitics, Trump mentioned Iran returning to the negotiating table: no timetable, I’m not in a hurry. Well, if he’s not in a hurry, the market’s hopes for easing have cooled off halfway.
Finally, the main event. BTC is now at 78785, surrounded by minefields: above, from 79500 to 80000 there’s a large cluster of short liquidation orders; if it breaks 80,000, shorts will have to queue up like a meat sandwich. Below, from 76500 to 78000 is a dense area of long liquidations; if it falls below 78000, leveraged longs will accelerate their liquidation. Fire above, fire below, BTC is walking a tightrope in the middle.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $BTC $ETH $SOL Structural impacts of ARB and OP token unlocks, treasury allocation, and DAO governance differences on the ecosystem I. Differences in token unlock rhythms: Different structures of sustained selling pressure ARB unlock characteristics 1. Total supply fixed at 10 billion tokens, no new inflation, team and investor shares about 44.47%, monthly fixed unlock of 92.65 million ARB, unlocking cycle continuing until March 2027, indicating stable and predictable sustained selling pressure. 2. Treasury holds over 4.2 billion ARB, foundation operating accounts continuously release tokens for ecosystem subsidies and team expenses, and large amounts of treasury tokens are frequently transferred on-chain to secondary markets, further amplifying circulating supply pressure. 3. Currently, ARB protocol fees are retained in ETH, with no token buyback, burning, or fee dividend mechanisms. Network revenue cannot be offset by unlock dilution, tokens lack value capture channels, and selling pressure suppresses token valuations for a long time, indirectly affecting the market purchasing power of ecosystem incentive budgets. OP Unlock Characteristics 1. The unlock pace is smoother and involves strong human intervention. Early airdrops account for 19%, ecosystem funds 25%, foundation grants decrease annually (15% in year 2, 10% in year 3, 4% in year 4), and no ARB-style fixed monthly cliff unlocks. 2. In August 2026, the core team conducted a governance vote to transfer 547 million OP tokens originally reserved for user airdrops (12.7% total supply, 24% circulating market) to the foundation-controlled strategic ecosystem fund, artificially changing the token allocation pathThe hottest topic in the market today has to be $xNVDA Nvidia's explosive earnings report released early this morning.
Q2 revenue hit $96.2 billion, more than doubling year-over-year by 106%, with adjusted EPS of $2.22, all surpassing expectations. Even more aggressively, management directly issued guidance for 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, while the market had only dared to expect 45%. After hours, Nvidia's stock jumped from down 3% to up 5%, igniting the entire AI chain.
What does this mean for crypto? Risk appetite was instantly ignited. You can see Hyperliquid's $HYPE rose nearly 3% against the trend today, and high-beta assets like SOL also strengthened, indicating capital is flowing into higher-risk assets.
The logic is simple: Nvidia represents the real demand for AI computing power, and the AI narrative has always been the easiest story to tell in crypto. Capital sentiment is contagious. Plus, the ETH spot ETF set a record inflow of $307 million on the same day, clearly warming on-chain risk appetite.
My reminder is about $HYPE — it’s a relatively elastic asset in this cycle but also highly volatile. Today's rise doesn't necessarily mean it has good value; position management comes first.
The core conclusion today is that earnings reports from major US stocks can directly spill over into crypto. This is the cross-market linkage we will increasingly have to get used to by 2026. To ride this wave of sentiment, pick high-beta assets but don’t get carried away. Waiting for a pullback is more respectable than chasing highs; profits are made by waiting, not chasing. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $ETH Long-term value: Optimists value its core role in on-chain settlement, betting on incremental demand driven by tokenization and AI; cautious observers believe that regulatory implementation only removes uncertainty, and the complexity of the narrative limits its potential to become a reserve currency.
· Valuation references: Institutions provide different dimensional benchmarks: cash flow floor models (bear market bottom support), network effect models (amplifying ecosystem activity), and macro adaptation mechanisms.
· Current status: Recently, ETH has shown relative strength, but technical indicators have also entered overbought territory. Whether the short-term rally can continue largely depends on whether ETF capital inflows can maintain high levels.
Essentially, Ethereum's value lies at the intersection of "on-chain financial infrastructure" and "potential macro hedge asset." The current price (around $2,500) is far below optimistic institutional targets, but the core disagreement about its valuation logic—whether it is a "network asset" or "digital gold"—remains unresolved.The latest financial report of $NVDA (Nvidia) continues to create a positive on a global scale, affirming the unique power of AI chips in era technology. Below is a detailed analysis of the growth numbers, causes of fluctuations and spillover activities of the $NVDA: 1. Detailed analysis of the record growth of the $NVDA Revenue rises and explodes vertically: $NVDA recorded a record revenue of 96.2 billion USD last quarter, a 106% year-on-year growth. Particularly in the Central segment $BTC ETF has been aggressively bought for 7 consecutive days!
This is a streak of gains not seen for over three months.
Institutional spot demand continues to increase!
But the continuous rise is making the short-term market increasingly crowded.
This week, we should be wary of an active shakeout!
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days, with about $314 million entering on the latest single day shown in the chart. More importantly, the ETF asset size and BTC price have risen rapidly almost in sync, indicating that this rally is indeed supported by spot capital.
However, 7 consecutive days of net inflows is already very strong, and BTC has quickly surged from a low to nearly 80K, causing short-term profit-taking and leverage to accumulate. Even if the overall trend is bullish, it’s entirely possible to first see a downward shakeout to clear some chasing positions before choosing a new direction.
The ETF is responsible for steadily building a stronger base, while the market is responsible for aggressively cleaning out leverage.
If a pullback happens and spot quickly absorbs it, that would actually be the strongest signal of this rally!$BTC short-term trends are mainly driven by macro factors rather than the halving narrative.
· Core macro drivers: The recent breakthrough of $80,000 was mainly due to the US debt reaching $40 trillion, causing market concerns about fiat currency depreciation ("currency devaluation trade"), combined with a weakening dollar and nearly $2 billion net inflow into ETFs over 7 days.
· Risks and high volatility: BTC is highly correlated with AI tech stocks (such as Nvidia), and tends to fall in sync when risk appetite wanes; short-term technical indicators show overbought conditions, with around $83,000 being the key resistance to open up further upside.
Summary: Evolution of value anchors
· Long-term value: Evolving from the "digital gold" narrative to a strategic reserve asset on national and institutional balance sheets.
· Valuation references: Institutions provide different value benchmarks: production cost anchor ($60k-$95k), relative value anchor (26% undervalued relative to gold), grand narrative anchor ($224k-$300k).
· Cycle assessment: The four-year cycle remains intact, but institutional participation has made volatility milder than previous bear markets, with stronger bottom support.
Essentially, Bitcoin's value is in a validation phase transitioning from a "high-risk speculative asset" to a "macro hedge asset." The current price (around $78,000) is below production cost valuation but above bottom support, and is strongly influenced by macro sentiment.Gold holding near $4,700 after $6.38B entered global physical gold ETFs last week is more than a defensive signal. With Citi pointing to futures-led momentum while Asian physical demand remains soft, the move appears increasingly shaped by institutional allocation rather than broad end-user demand.
BTC staying near its rebound highs adds a useful test: parallel strength in gold and spot BTC ETF flows would suggest investors are expanding non-sovereign exposure, not simply rotating into safety. Divergence would reveal a clearer preference between defense and higher beta. Not advice, just analysis.
#GoldVsBTCETFFlows$BTC: Resilience Amid Divergence
BTC encountered profit-taking near its historical highs, with a pullback exceeding 23% considered normal volatility. The key point is that spot ETFs have seen strong inflows for 7 consecutive days, reaching $314 million in a single day on Tuesday, indicating that traditional financial institutions are accelerating their accumulation during the pullback.
On-chain data further confirms this: short-term holders (STH) are selling, but long-term holders (LTH) continue to accumulate, absorbing supply. As long as the price remains above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (around $58,000), this is a healthy "mid-air refuel" rather than a trend reversal. The real risk lies in a slowdown of ETF inflows, not the price pullback itself.
$ETH: Greater Catch-up Potential than Pullback Risk
ETH has not formed a top structure; the current retracement to the 61.8% Fibonacci support is a standard "pullback confirmation" after breaking the long-term downtrend line. Compared to BTC, ETH's gains have lagged significantly, and BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) is near its peak. Once ETH confirms support, capital may rotate from BTC to ETH, triggering a stronger catch-up rally.
Conclusion
This is not a moment of panic. Large capital is stepping in, and the technicals are correcting overbought conditions. As long as BTC holds the $58,000 support and ETH holds the key Fibonacci level, the pullback is a right-side entry opportunity. Focus on the sustainability of ETF capital flows.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 After-hours surge of 5%
Continuously positioning to buy $xSMH $DRAM
Jensen Huang said: "AI has reached a turning point. It is doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, computing power equals income.
I also believe the AI track has not cooled down; strong profits will gradually nourish the entire industry.
The current situation is not due to lack of demand but because production capacity cannot keep up. This is painful in the entire semiconductor cycle history.
Q3 gross margin guidance is 74%, and it is clearly stated that Q4 will further bottom out to the 71%-72% range, mainly affected by rising memory prices, so I think this will be beneficial for DRAM #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest This trade made me notice $SKHY's habit of "falling with the market but not rising with it." Opened long at 152.84, now at 162.96. When the market rises, it moves sluggishly; when the market falls, it’s the first to drop.
The 6% gain this time was because the market happened to stabilize for a few days. Once the environment changes, it will most likely return to the "gradual decline mode."
All positions closed. This trade confirmed: going long must be timed with a market window that supports it; looking at its own structure alone is not enough. Next time, wait for the market weekly confirmation before touching it. $BTC $ETH BTC now feels a bit like reaching the last big question on an exam.
The earlier multiple-choice questions were completed with the help of the shorts.
Now, it's finally the turn of the real money players to write the answers.
After BTC surged to $80,000 and then dropped back down, I actually feel the most awkward party right now isn't the bulls, but that the "momentum" behind this rally is suddenly about to change shifts.
The earlier phase of this market is actually easy to understand: large-scale short squeezes pushed BTC all the way up, and many who originally bet on it falling ended up becoming the most active buyers. Sounds a bit magical, right? The group that was the most bearish on BTC forcibly bought it up to $80,000 first.
But the problem arises: a short squeeze can't keep playing on repeat. Once most shorts have been covered, if the price continues to rise, you can't always rely on "shorts continuing to provide buying power." #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest A Calm Perspective on Earnings Season: Waiting for a Worthwhile Entry Point
NVIDIA is reporting earnings tonight, and honestly, I feel quite calm.
The market is fixated on the single variable of "whether it beats expectations," but what concerns me more is: what happens after the beat? The sharp drop in July and the quick recovery during August's earnings season have essentially priced in a lot of optimism in advance. Even if the data is impressive, after the short-term price spike, the stock will most likely return to the path of chip exchange and valuation digestion.
I’m also hoping for a big bullish candle from NVIDIA that can pull SanDisk, Micron, and Hynix out of the mud—storage stocks have been frustrating, falling but not rising. But looking rationally, the overall rhythm of the chip sector can no longer be reversed by a single earnings report. The more likely scenario going forward is: no deep drops, no strong rallies, range-bound oscillation, alternating small gains and losses, with trading friction noticeably increasing.
In this market environment, my strategy is summed up in four words: move less, watch more. Frequent trading tends to erode principal.
Regarding timing, I lean toward a significant sell-off in mid to late September that will clear out the loosened chips after the rebound. Then, in October to November, if AI demand does not materially deteriorate, valuation expansion will have a foundation after repeated consolidation at low levels.
The truly comfortable buying points often appear when most people lose patience. For now, I choose to keep my hands in my pockets. Patience is the only cost right now.Why does the U.S. still need to address Crypto custody issues even though Bitcoin ETFs already exist? Because ETFs solve the "how to buy" problem, while custody rules solve the "who can legally hold the assets for clients after purchase" problem. 1. Institutional Crypto buying is more than just purchasing Ordinary investors can buy and store in their own wallets, but funds, banks, brokerages, and RIA investment advisors are different. They manage assets on behalf of clients and must address who will custody the assets, how to segregate them, and who is responsible if private keys are compromised. Without clear rules, even if large institutions want to enter, they will face compliance restrictions. 2. Custody rules are critical infrastructure for institutional entry SEC Chair Paul Atkins has been pushing for a clearer Crypto regulatory framework, with custody being a key component. Simply put: ETFs solve the "can buy" issue. Custody rules solve the "who can hold for you" issue. If these rules become clearer, banks, brokerages, asset management firms, and investment advisors will face far fewer compliance barriers when entering Crypto. 3. What this means for investors Many people judge whether Crypto is mainstream accepted only by ETF fund flows and $BTC price. But true institutionalization also includes infrastructure like trading, clearing, custody, accounting, and compliance. ETFs essentially open the door to buying, while custody rules continue to pave the path behind that door. Therefore, the next phase of Crypto worth watching is not justSomeone asked me: $OKB rose from 113 to 119 and then fell back to 112—is this a sign that the whales are selling? My judgment is: it's a normal correction, the logic hasn't changed.
Looking back at the structure over the past three days: on Monday, the overall market fell while OKB went against the trend, up +7.86%. On Tuesday, after hitting 119, profit-taking began. After two consecutive gains totaling 12%, a 6% pullback occurred. This is called "taking a breather after a big rise," not a "trend reversal." The volume confirms this—the trading volume on the correction day was only half of that on the peak day, indicating a low-volume pullback rather than high-volume selling.
The support levels are very clear: 110-112 is the previous breakout platform, and 108 is the 10-day moving average. As long as one of these levels holds, the upward structure remains intact. If 108 breaks, it's time to exit and observe in the short term.
The three fundamental logics remain unchanged: compliance licenses continue to be issued, OKX Chain's TVL is still rising, and quarterly buybacks continue as usual. The historical high was 257, now at 112, which is still a halving level, with much more upside potential than downside.
My strategy: keep the base position unchanged, add a layer when testing the 110-112 support zone, and stop loss on the added portion if 108 breaks. Exchange tokens' alpha is slow money; you have to hold to profit. A topic that is attracting strong attention on OKX is the hashtag ZCSHETFDebut14.8MVolume. Behind this phrase is a notable event for $ZEC: the ZCSH trading product has started trading on NYSE Arca and recorded a volume of 14.8 million USD in its first session. This is the first trading product offering direct exposure to the spot price of $ZEC. But what is worth analyzing is not just the 14.8 million USD. The bigger question is: The appearance of $ZEC in a trading product on the market chAnthropic talks about the market potential in astronomical terms, which sounds great but is also very risky
AI companies are best at creating a feeling: if you don't get on board now, you'll miss the next-generation platform. But the IPO market isn't that romantic. When it comes to the public market, investors immediately switch to another set of criteria: revenue quality, reasoning costs, customer renewals, model price cuts, computing power expenses—each can bring the story back to reality
I'm not pessimistic about Anthropic. On the contrary, the better the company, the more likely the market will buy the future early at the highest price. SpaceX's valuation can still be validated by launches, Starlink, and contracts; the value of model companies relies more on the phrase "future workflow entry"
The biggest fear for a good story is not that no one believes it, but that everyone believes it too early
#Anthropic估算30万亿美元市场，IPO叙事能否兑现？ The biggest signal in the latest Bitcoin rally may not be price. It’s the persistence of institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed more than $2B of BTC across just five trading sessions, one of the strongest accumulation streaks seen in months. But the real question isn’t how much was bought. It’s whether the buying continues when BTC stops moving straight up. If ETF inflows remain strong during consolidation or a healthy pullback, that would point to genuine structural demand r#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
2026 Jackson Hole Annual Meeting: Held from 8.27 to 8.29, at 22:00 Beijing time on August 28, the new Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver a major speech. This is the most important policy statement before the September interest rate meeting, with global stock, bond, and crypto markets all focused on this speech.
This year's theme is financial innovation, stablecoins, and digital payments, directly linked to the crypto sector.
- Hawkish speech (emphasizing stubborn inflation, maintaining high interest rates, no rate cuts, possibly more hikes):
US Treasury yields continue to rise, risk-free returns increase, capital flees from risk assets like crypto and US stocks, BTC and altcoins likely to pull back.
- Dovish speech (signaling easing of tightening, future rate cuts):
US Treasury yields fall, liquidity easing expectations rise, crypto market will rebound.
BTC and ETH price movements are completely tied to macro liquidity; altcoins (SOL, ZEC, etc.) will be several times more volatile than BTC;
The market has already priced in the "hawkish risk" in advance, so before the speech lands, funds dare not enter aggressively, resulting in high-level oscillation and shakeout;
This meeting's theme involves stablecoins; if the Fed signals stricter crypto regulation, privacy coins and small tokens will be heavily suppressed.
This is currently the biggest uncertainty black swan in the crypto market. Before the speech lands, all major rallies are short-term speculation with very high risk of chasing highs; once the speech settles, the market will take a clear direction. #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
$BTC surged to the 80,000 threshold and then dropped back to around 77,000. Don't panic; this is a typical "tug-of-war at the threshold" before options expiration.
On Friday, about $6.4 billion worth of BTC options on Deribit will expire, with the heaviest Call positions stacked at the 75K and 80K strike prices. Market makers' gamma hedging pulls the price into this range. When it surges, some sell; when it falls, some buy. It looks like a surge and fall, but in essence, it's mechanical play before expiration.
Mid-term, I remain bullish but will not add positions during this spike. If 80,000 doesn't hold, consider it a consolidation shakeout; if 75K doesn't break, hold the base position. Only after Friday's expiration positions roll off and volatility compresses can the direction be chosen.
Short-term traders get pinned and chopped within the range. For us mid-term holders, one sentence: hold the base position firmly, wait for a solid breakout above 80,000 before considering chasing. Don't get shaken out by expiration noise now.
$ETH
$SOL The most interesting aspect of the market right now is not how high US inflation is, but that inflation has neither continued to worsen nor truly declined. Core PCE has remained steady at 3.3% for two consecutive months, while BTC has climbed back to around $79,000. One is the Fed's most closely watched inflation indicator, and the other is the risk asset most sensitive to liquidity; the two are entering a new phase of competition. The question thus becomes very simple: Will Powell give the market "rate cut expectations" at Jackson Hole tomorrow, or will he cool down the high-valuation risk assets? 1. Three data points explain why the market is starting to reprice. First, July core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, unchanged from June; month-over-month it rose 0.2%. This means US core inflation has not improved further and remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target. Second, July overall PCE year-over-year is 3.7%, higher than June's 3.6%, with a month-over-month increase of 0.2%. In other words, core inflation "did not fall," and overall inflation even showed a rebound. Third, market expectations for a Fed rate adjustment in September have clearly shifted. After the PCE release, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike briefly rose to about 40%, up from around 36% previously. Putting these three figures together, the conclusion is very clear: the market's original logic of "inflation continuing to decline → Fed more likely to ease" is now facing resistance. 2. But why hasn't BTC weakened as a result? Because this BTC rally is no longer purely a "Fed rate cut trade." As of August 27, BTC is around 7.The whole network is shouting that Nvidia is YYDS, but I opened a short position on $SNDK
It's not that I'm against money, but after reading this round of earnings reports, the vibe has changed.
Nvidia's Q2 revenue doubled, and they even said FY2028 will rise another 70%. But the truly valuable information is on the software side: Salesforce's AI product annualized revenue reached $4 billion, #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest NVIDIA's earnings report is out: revenue doubled year-over-year to $96.2 billion, net profit also doubled, and for the first time, they gave guidance a year early, saying revenue will rise another 70% in fiscal 2028. Before the earnings release, its stock had fallen for a week, with the market fearing growth was peaking, but after hours it surged over 4%.
Jensen Huang said on the call that AI has reached a turning point, with computing power directly equating to revenue—this sounds just like when ChatGPT first went viral three years ago 😂. But there’s a margin hurdle: HBM and DRAM prices have surged fiercely, so next quarter gross margin is expected to drop to a bottom of 71%-72%. Capacity, power, and storage are all tight; the company says shortages will last at least until the end of fiscal 2028.
The bottleneck is capacity, not demand. They still confidently guide for doubling growth. After reading this, I can only say one thing: this round of AI money is truly being earned by them. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $BTC is up 23% this week after two major liquidation waves wiped out $2.1B+ in positions.
Now leverage looks healthier: OI fell to 284K BTC and funding returned to neutral. Trading volume surged, CME activity rose, while ETF/product inflows point to renewed institutional interest.
Still, a rebound ≠ confirmed trend reversal.
Watch volume, ETF flows, funding, and spot demand on pullbacks. If BTC can hold corrections, the recovery becomes much more credible.
#PCEToJacksonHole To be honest, the market these days has me on edge.
$DOGE is currently at 0.086, the government efficiency department has been disbanded, and Musk himself has publicly expressed regret,
but on-chain data tells a completely different story—30 billion DOGE stacked at 0.081, whales increased holdings by 200 million this week, and shorts added another $16 million, the squeeze feeling is very strong.
I don’t dare chase at 0.086, will wait for a pullback to 0.084.
$BTC is stuck between 78,000 and 79,000, can’t break 80,000, volume has been cut in half, many longs have been liquidated.
But the weekly chart is up 18%, ETFs are still seeing inflows, indicating big money hasn’t fled, just digesting.
$ETH is the most resilient of the three, directly breaking above 2,500, showing clear relative strength.
Tomorrow, the Fed Chair will speak at Jackson Hole, that’s the real key to direction.
I won’t bet heavily before the speech; holding positions is more important than guessing direction.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 The current core of $MRVL trading lies in the pressure game between the 79x high valuation and the Q2 earnings guidance exceeding expectations, with strong binding and profit-taking risks amplifying simultaneously.
The market's buying sentiment is mainly driven by the long-term custom chip agreement extended with Google until 2033, worth $120 billion. The market unanimously expects Q2 revenue to reach $2.71 billion and EPS to be $0.93. This earnings expectation, combined with Rosenblatt's $300 target price and Wells Fargo's $310 target price, has pushed the valuation premium of the AI networking business to an extremely high level.
The bullish scenario is triggered if the actual reported revenue exceeds $2.71 billion and the next quarter's guidance continues to be revised upward. If the quarterly data confirms Inphi's networking division's high growth and surpasses the expected $0.93 EPS, buying momentum will push the stock price closer to Wall Street's average target price of $291; the signal that this scenario fails is a rapid appearance of large sell orders after an intraday spike.
The bearish scenario is triggered if the gross margin guidance falls short of the buyers' stringent expectations, causing the 79x high P/E ratio to lose its short-term safety cushion. Once actual performance only meets or slightly falls below the $2.71 billion estimate, concentrated profit-taking sales will directly suppress the price, with Susquehanna's $265 target price area becoming the first downside pressure test point.
The consolidation scenario manifests as actual performance meeting the $2.71 billion expectation but lacking an overperformance growth spike, with the market reaching a temporary balance between valuation digestion and long-term order certainty. When the PEG remains around 0.13 and no new institutional target price adjustments occur, the market's long and short funds will fall into a high-level box range oscillation.
The invalidation condition for the bullish view is if management signals a slowdown in the doubling progress of custom XPU during the earnings call. The invalidation condition for the bearish view is if the earnings report discloses AI networking business growth far exceeding the established trajectory of 70% growth by 2027.
The most important variables to watch in the next 7 days are the gross margin guidance after the earnings release, large volume distribution, and institutional position adjustments near the $300 mark.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注 #OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键After Bitcoin surged close to 80,000, it started to catch its breath, which isn't a bad sign; the key is whether the pullback finds support.
The market has been trading along two main lines these past two days: ETF capital inflows and the US Treasury buying bonds to suppress long-term interest rates, giving risk assets a breather; however, PCE and Jackson Hole have not fully settled yet, and interest rate expectations remain volatile, making the market very sensitive.
$ETH remains relatively strong, indicating that capital isn't solely focused on Bitcoin. $MOVE has entered the top ranks of Binance spot USDT gainers, showing some altcoin sentiment spillover, but these smaller tokens depend more on sustained volume—if they can't hold after a rally, a retreat is likely.$BTC's real critical point
I think it's next Tuesday
These days, no matter how BTC fluctuates around $80,000, I think that's not the most important.
I'm now more focused on next Tuesday, September 1st.
On that day, the US will release the August ISM Manufacturing PMI. Last month's data surged to 55.6, showing economic resilience much stronger than market expectations. The new data on September 1st will directly affect the market's judgment on the US economy, inflation, and subsequent Federal Reserve policies.
Moreover, following that are ADP employment, ISM services, and then Friday's non-farm payrolls. Next Tuesday is actually the first shot of the week's macro data.
So with BTC holding around $80,000 now, I'm not anxious.
If next week's data doesn't push rate expectations hawkish again, and $BTC can hold the chips accumulated these days, $84,000 is very likely the next stage.
Next Tuesday is worth watching closely.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 NVIDIA's stock experienced intense volatility after its earnings report, with JPMorgan raising the target price to $320 📊 On August 26 after market close, NVIDIA announced Q2 earnings: revenue of $96.2 billion (up 106% year-over-year), data center revenue of $89 billion (up 117% year-over-year), accounting for 92% of total revenue. More importantly, the fiscal year 2028 growth guidance of about 70% far exceeded expectations 🚀 --- Stock price volatility recap: Closed at $209.66 on August 26 (-1.59%). After hours, it first dropped about 3% to $203, then quickly surged above $219, with a swing of over $17, finally closing up 4.57%. On August 27 pre-market, it fluctuated between $219-$220 📈 --- On August 27, JPMorgan raised the target price from $280 to $320, and RBC raised it to $330. The core driver of the after-hours reversal was the fiscal year 2028 growth guidance, which completely dispelled market concerns about AI capital expenditure peaking. Current price is about $219, with JPMorgan's target price implying approximately 46% upside ⚠️ However, note that supply bottlenecks (high memory prices) and access to the Chinese market remain hard constraints. My view: $220 is a key short-term resistance level. If you already hold a position, watch if it can hold above this level; if you are not holding, the current price has rebounded about 8% from the after-hours low, so chasing the high carries significant risk. It is recommended to wait for a pullback below $210 before entering in batches. For reference only, not investment advice. #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现 $NVDA #The honest read on $2Z ⚖️
Pros: real fiber in the ground, an overlay rather than a hard dependency, and the first SEC no-action letter granted a DePIN project 📄
Cons: ChainArgos alleges it is more centralised than it told the SEC, with no public reply. Only a third of supply circulates 🧐
#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest BTC is approaching $80,000. The real question is not how much more it can rise, but whether the capital can continue to take over? BTC is once again nearing $80,000, which seems like the bulls are regaining control, but the real contradiction in the market lies here: the price has clearly strengthened, yet the macro environment has not simultaneously shifted to easing. In other words, is this round of rally driven by continuous new capital inflows, or is it a phase of acceleration formed by ETF buying combined with short covering? Let's first look at three key data points. As of August 27, BTC price is about $78,900, up approximately 14% over the past week, having once surpassed $80,000. The US spot BTC ETF has recently seen renewed capital inflows, with a net inflow of about $314 million on August 25 alone, of which BlackRock's IBIT contributed about $284 million. Meanwhile, market sentiment has clearly heated up, with the Fear and Greed Index reaching 80, entering the extreme greed zone. This indicates that the price push is not just driven by retail sentiment. The first force comes from institutional capital. The ETF's renewed continuous net inflows mean traditional funds are again willing to take on BTC risk. The second force comes from the derivatives market. Previously, the market had heavy short positions; after the price broke through key levels, some shorts were forced to cover, further amplifying the rise. Recent market research data shows a two-day ETF net inflow of about $487 million, while leveraged liquidations once reached about $1.9 billion, with BTC shorts accounting for a large proportion. But what truly determines whether the rally can continue is the macro environment. Currently, US inflation remains relatively high,Every crypto cycle eventually produces the same question: has liquidity started migrating from $BTC into the broader market, or is this still a $BTC-led advance wearing an altcoin costume? The honest answer, based on the data available right now, is that the market is somewhere in between — past the opening act, but well short of the finale. The Metric That Actually Matters $BTC dominance — the share of total crypto market capitalization held by $BTC alone — is currently sitting in the high-50s,The biggest early "pie" of CORE (Core Chain / Core DAO) was: using Satoshi Plus to combine Bitcoin hash power/PoW security + EVM smart contracts + native BTC staking yield, creating the "BTCFi underlying power grid." As of mid-2026, some parts have truly launched, some are still semi-implemented/renamed and re-explained, and some remain mostly at the PR stage.
Already concretely implemented
Satoshi Plus consensus + non-custodial BTC staking
BTC is staked using CLTV time locks, private keys never leave the user's wallet, earning CORE rewards; on-chain long-term BTC staking is about 2400–3000 BTC, CORE staking volume is in the hundreds of millions, and the mainnet continues producing blocks.
Dual Staking
BTC + CORE staked together with Boost/Super/Satoshi tiers activated; about 30% of BTC stakers also stake CORE.
Liquid Staking: stCORE and lstBTC
stCORE (CORE liquid staking certificate, usable in DEX/lending) and lstBTC (BTC staking certificate, usable in Colend, Pell, etc.) are both live, not just hype.
EVM mainnet + multiple hard forks
Hermes and Theseus have been executed; Theseus reduced finality time to ~6 seconds, added BLS12-381 precompiles, substitute validators, etc., making developer toolchains usable.
Mainnet DApps and contract base
Officially, over 30,000 contracts and hundreds of DApps (DEX/lending/inscriptions) deployed on mainnet; GitHub shows continuous commits, but real daily active users are estimated by critics to be below ten thousand, and TVL has retraced about 40% from the late 2024 peak (around $650 million).
Offline spending / debit cards (partially implemented)
Supports CoinsBee for gift cards/phone credits; SatPay public beta + Mobilum co-branded crypto debit card (overseas compliance channel), but not usable domestically, with queueing exceeding actual volume.
Compliant ETP channel
Valour listed BTC staking ETP on the London Stock Exchange, with yields generated by Core's BTC staking, considered the least inflated institutional-level implementation.
Planned but only half implemented / sustained by buybacks
SatPay "Bitcoin new bank"
Public beta is live; institutional version, BTC lending, fiat spending closed loop planned for H2 2026 (late July institutional version, Q3 multi-collateral), scale data not yet available; queue of 20,000 does not equal TVL of 20,000.
Revenue buyback and burn mechanism
In 2026, "all BTCFi revenue → buy CORE and burn" was written into the economic model; gas allocation changed in August, quarterly buyback reports issued—the mechanism is active, but revenue base is small, buyback pressure far less than unlocking sell pressure.
AUSD stablecoin / RWA / multi-collateral staking
AUSD planned for September launch, ETH/stablecoin collateral added by end of Q3, RWA real estate phase two by year-end—as of August 2026, not yet at acceptance point, considered "on roadmap but not delivered."
Quantum resistance, enterprise-level BTC wealth management, DAT vault
Occasional PR (BTCS raised 100 million to buy CORE, Bitget ecosystem fund, etc.), but not product-level implementation, more funding/marketing cooperation.
Basically unfulfilled or hard-to-verify promises
"21 billion total supply + 81-year release replicating Bitcoin scarcity"—release curve is real, but demand side hasn't materialized; deflation narrative supported by buybacks.
"Tens of millions daily active Web3 bank"—daily active users estimated by various parties under ten thousand, two orders of magnitude short of a "bank."
"Bitcoin security shared with EVM"—strictly speaking, BTC PoW only participates in validator election, not directly securing Core chain like Bitcoin mainnet; technical narrative is somewhat embellished.
In summary: CORE has truly implemented "non-custodial BTC staking + EVM + liquid staking certificates + one compliant ETP," and the mainnet has not crashed; but SatPay large-scale payments, stablecoin settlements, RWA, and revenue-driven deflation—factors that determine the price ceiling—are only expected to deliver their first results in H2 2026, so cannot yet be considered fully realized. $BNB has broken through $700 this time, driven by a combination of market sentiment, technical upgrades, and on-chain leveraged funds. As of August 27, BNB is priced at approximately $707.92, up 2.1% in 24 hours, with a market cap of about $94.2 billion.
1. Market sentiment boosts, risk appetite rises
This is the most direct background. $BTC remains stable above $78,000, $ETH and Solana have risen 1.84% and 3.92% respectively, and the entire market is warming up. Meanwhile, the US SEC proposed the "Crypto Asset Regulatory Rules," and the US Treasury doubled the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, creating a macro environment very friendly to risk assets. Naturally, funds flow into major coins, with BNB, the fourth largest by market cap, taking the lead.
2. Pasteur hard fork activated, major technical benefits
On August 25, the BNB Smart Chain mainnet officially activated the Pasteur hard fork. This upgrade includes three core proposals (BEP-682, BEP-695, BEP-675), mainly accomplishing three things:
· Enhancing cross-chain bridge security: preventing validators from double voting, fixing signature verification vulnerabilities
· Strengthening validator governance: old keys are properly retired and permissions revoked
· Increasing block capacity: internal tests show throughput jumped from 1,237 transactions per second directly to 2,324
The market started to anticipate the hard fork even before it happened—on August 20, BNB broke through $650, rising nearly 16% within a week. In August 2026, the crypto market saw an epic recovery rally. Bitcoin surged to $81,000 before retreating from its high, oscillating around the $78,000–$79,000 range. Ethereum strengthened simultaneously, holding above $2,450. The current rally for these two major coins was catalyzed by multiple factors: loose macro liquidity, large net inflows into institutional ETFs, and large-scale short liquidations. Market sentiment has entered a greedy zone, with BTC and ETH showing clear divergence in upward momentum. Whether the trend can continue depends on whether incremental spot funds can absorb the price gains caused by earlier short squeezes. According to the latest market data, Bitcoin rebounded from a low of $62,000, with weekly gains hitting a nearly three-year high. Total short liquidations across the network exceeded $4.6 billion, and concentrated liquidations of leveraged short positions directly drove prices up rapidly. Ethereum's rebound resilience in this round is significantly higher than Bitcoin's, with spot ETH ETFs maintaining net capital inflows for several consecutive days, showing a clear trend of capital clustering. At the derivatives market level, after large amounts of short positions were digested earlier, the proportion of long positions rose rapidly, the online fear and greed index entered an extreme greed range, short-term trading sentiment became more excited, and the proportion of 24-hour long liquidations rose sharply, with high-level volatility risks continuing to rise. On the on-chain data side, Bitcoin whale addresses continued to increase holdings in batches at low levels, with existing tokens on exchanges staying at recent lows, and long-term holding tokens remained stable; The launch of Ethereum's Layer 2 network boosted on-chain trading activity, with large holding addresses simultaneously absorbing funds, but potential selling pressure from staking unlocks persisted