Orbit Post Sitemap
$ZEC stop bottom-fishing, this kind will just keep falling
Don't keep recharging your faith
The final result of a manipulated coin is zero, institutions are running
Retail investors are bottom-fishing and getting stabbed, isn't it just ridiculous
Shorting is better than bottom-fishing!
Only retail investors pay for faith!Waiting for the next 100x altcoin setup. Yesterday, I came extremely close to the 500U milestone. In just 10 days, the account had already grown nearly 4x. But one careless $SNDK short forced me to slow down for another day. Trading with 75x leverage is seriously uncomfortable. Since my stop-loss wasn’t triggered, I decided to hold and gradually reduce the position instead of making an emotional decision. One rule I want to repeat: Before opening any leveraged trade, know exactly where your stopStop loss is not protection; it is a visible price level to others.
$BTC current price 83277 with a long order placed, stop loss at 81700, target 86000.
$ETH entered at 2520, $ZEC entered at 1304, all three with stop losses.
What does this price level mean:
Placing a stop loss order is like telling the market where a bunch of sell orders are.
When the price hits there, the transaction price is often even lower than your set stop loss.
Where does this money come from:
From 83277 down to 81700 is a difference of 1577 points.
The higher the leverage, the shorter this distance, making it easier to be triggered.
After sweeping the stop losses, the price often moves back up.
It's not that someone is targeting you; it's that the orders are too concentrated in that area.
The stop loss levels for all three coins are placed openly.
With many placing orders there, it becomes the easiest spot to attack.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #以太坊Glamsterdam升级登陆Sepolia测试网 $BTC $ETH $700 million liquidated! Bitcoin flash crashes to $82,000, bulls are undergoing a "massacre"
Bitcoin quickly dropped from the $86,000-$87,000 high, hitting a low of $82,000. Nearly $700 million was liquidated across the network in 24 hours, the vast majority being long positions, as a leveraged liquidation storm swept the market.
The trigger was a convergence of multiple macro bearish factors. Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude oil above $100, inflation expectations rebounded, and the market lowered expectations for a Fed rate cut. U.S. Treasury yields surged, the dollar strengthened, raising the opportunity cost of the non-yielding asset BTC, causing risk capital to flee. U.S. stocks weakened simultaneously, amplifying the decline of high-beta crypto assets.
The price broke below the key $84,000 level, triggering concentrated long contract liquidations, with automatic sell orders continuously hammering the market, creating a negative feedback loop that amplified the drop. Meanwhile, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw large net outflows, and institutional buying disappeared. Additionally, large BTC transfers from U.S. government-related addresses into custody platforms intensified market panic.
Technically, multiple failed attempts to break above $87,000 show short-term long overcrowding, and the macro cooling directly triggered a pullback. Short-term support is seen at $81,000-$83,000; if broken, the next target is $80,000. For the market to strengthen, it needs to reclaim and hold $85,000-$86,000. Key upcoming factors to watch include CPI, Fed statements, Middle East oil prices, and ETF fund flows.
#BTC #LeverageLiquidation #MacroMarketI came across that IMF report tonight, which said the total global tokenized assets amount to only $65 billion, with fixed income alone accounting for $48 billion, and tokenized stocks at $2.3 billion. Hearing these numbers, I feel embarrassed for those who have been shouting "RWA revolution" for years.
But the second half of that sentence is the key: more than half of the trading volume of tokenized stocks happens after the US stock market closes.
This is interesting. The traditional market is asleep, but transactions continue on-chain. This isn’t some grand narrative; it’s a real demand. Previously, many hyped RWA as the next trillion-dollar sector, but now the market looks too small, fragmented, and platforms don’t communicate with each other. Better to stay calm for now.
As for Bitcoin, it’s hovering around 82,000, down 2% over seven days, with no volume increase, just lingering near the seven-day low. When the news is bearish like this, I never bet on direction; I wait for it to land. The graveyard of those who bet on data is already three meters deep. The people holding real money for years are the ones who stay calm in times like these. Those rushing in chasing news mostly get washed out. $BTC ⚠️ Stop saying "Quantum computing poses no risk to cryptocurrencies because banks will fail first." This is not accurate.
Banks rely on cryptography to protect asset ownership, while cryptocurrencies rely on cryptography to establish and verify ownership.
If quantum computers in the future become powerful enough to break existing cryptographic systems, both banks and the crypto industry will face serious risks, but their responses will differ.
🏦 Bank advantages:
Banks have centralized control capabilities, allowing them to upgrade security systems, freeze accounts, revoke certain transactions, and recover or reconfirm assets through internal records.
🔗 The crypto industry is different:
Almost all major blockchains may need to undergo fundamental upgrades.
Bitcoin:
Requires consensus layer upgrades and encouraging users to migrate funds to quantum-resistant addresses.
Ethereum:
May need to upgrade account signatures, validator infrastructure, and other cryptographic systems.
Solana and other L1s:
Likewise may face issues requiring upgrades to cryptographic infrastructure.
Moreover, not every wallet can be easily upgraded.
Some smart wallets can modify security logic, but others may require users to manually migrate assets.
More troublesome are:
🔴 Lost wallets
🔴 Abandoned addresses
🔴 Long-dormant BTC
If these assets cannot be migrated, they may remain exposed to potential risks for a long time in the future. $SOL This chain charges everyone who uses it a fee every day. Over the past month, this amount has consistently been around 1 million USD per day.
Every time a user transfers funds or runs an application on the chain, they pay a fee. This money represents real business on the chain. On October 7, when the coin price dropped 3.6%, the chain still collected 970,000 USD, no different from any other day. Users did not stop using the chain for a single day. $SNDK perpetual 75x long position, opened at 1638.9, now at 1672.9, floating profit +155.59%.
The logic is very simple: the 1600 whole number support was tested multiple times without breaking, volume increased, and the bottom pattern was obvious. Finally waited for a strong bullish candle to follow long. 75x leverage, stop loss at 1600. The movement was very smooth, no chance for a pullback, directly pushed to 1672.9.
Moved the stop loss up to 1638.9 to lock in profits. If the volume breaks above 1700, can hold a bit longer to see 1750.
$ETH $BTC #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ This potential black swan in U.S. Treasury bonds is showing some positive signals in the short term.
First, as explained by Professor Frank, the winning yield in the 10-year Treasury auction is lower than the pre-issuance yield.
Here's a basic fact: U.S. Treasuries are issued through auctions. Participants bid by yield; the more participants there are, the less favorable it is for buyers, and the lower the yield.
A winning yield lower than the pre-issuance yield indicates strong buying power in the Treasury auction.
Another point is the price of gold. Both gold and U.S. Treasuries are considered safe-haven assets, so over the long term, their prices move in the same direction, meaning gold prices and Treasury yields move inversely. As shown in the chart.
However, in the past two days, gold prices and Treasury yields have moved in the same direction, especially yesterday when Treasury yields were low (Treasury prices rose) while gold prices fell. This suggests that funds may be shifting from gold to Treasuries.
The Treasury auction and the flow of funds from gold to Treasuries are clearly positive for Treasuries. With demand for Treasuries increasing, the upward trend in yields has at least temporarily eased.$LTC
LTC fell more than 4%, why is the low volatility label misleading?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 65.53—69.08 USDT, change -4.07%, trading volume about 7.34 million USDT.
The retracement in this window has expanded, and the observed quotes are also close to the lower end. The asset's volatility characteristics can change; past mildness does not guarantee current low risk. Defensive judgments must accept verification by the new price structure.
If BTC stabilizes but LTC continues to repeatedly break lows, first reduce the explanation of resistance to decline; if higher lows recover and the midpoint is held again, then observe the repair.Such a boring market!
I want to open a position but don't know how. My intuition tells me $BTC and $ETH will still drop. The current sideways movement is most likely just a downward continuation. Entering now will probably lead to a big downward wick!
I don't even know how to catch the wick at this point, it's nerve-wracking!
If shorting, unless there's a big black swan event, the FOMC meeting says more rate hikes are coming, but this news alone isn't significant enough to cause a major crypto crash anymore!
The downside space is really limited. If I short and a large amount of ETC re-enters, I might be underwater before I even take profit. Once the bulls start pulling, the trend can be very exaggerated.
I feel like I should hold back on opening any positions.
Usually, having an urgent urge to open a position isn't a good sign. I held back on 10/11 last year, otherwise, I probably would have said goodbye to my brothers already!
The best approach is to wait for the daily chart to stabilize and turn green first!
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 $HYPE perpetual 50x short position, opened at 89.911, now at 85.823, floating profit +227.39%.
The logic is very clear: after a short-term explosive surge, a strong resistance platform forms above, bulls repeatedly fail to break through, and a bearish divergence signal appears. Contract long positions are heavily crowded, profit-taking risk is huge, and the short reversal window opens. With 50x leverage and stop loss at 91.4, every rebound is just a technical correction and does not change the downtrend.
The short-term speculative main rise has ended, incremental funds outside the market no longer enter, high-level chips continue to be distributed, and selling pressure is released layer by layer downward.
Trailing stop moved up to 87.1 to lock in floating profit. Volume-break below the key support at 84.2, follow the downtrend by adding positions; low-volume rebound hitting 87 fails to hold, continue holding and wait for the market to weaken. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Standard Chartered Bank, with assets of approximately $447 billion, is launching crypto asset custody services for institutional clients in Singapore.
Why is "custody" so important?
Institutions can certainly buy coins, but under strict compliance frameworks, many institutions are not suitable to manage private keys themselves.
Therefore, who securely holds and manages these assets on behalf of institutions becomes a critical link.
So when banks enter Crypto, they are not necessarily competing with exchanges in the "selling coins" business, but more importantly, competing for the position of "holding coins for institutions."
It is also noteworthy that Standard Chartered chooses to advance this business in Singapore. A traditional financial institution is trying to integrate Crypto into the custody and financial infrastructure systems it is familiar with.
What truly deserves attention is not just another bank expressing optimism about Crypto.
But that banks are beginning to build the infrastructure for trading, custody, clearing, and settlement themselves.
Retail enthusiasm may fluctuate, but once the infrastructure is established, the threshold for institutional funds entering Crypto will further decrease. $BTC ｜The familiar shakeout pattern has appeared again🤔
Looking at the 6-hour K-line, a similar sweep structure is playing out again, reminiscent of the previous false breakdown.
Previously, BTC briefly broke below the 76000 support but quickly recovered, then surged nearly 15%, reaching above 87000. Now the market is replicating a similar move, with the price briefly dipping below 83000 before starting to rebound, possibly forming a false breakdown.
After continuous declines, bearish sentiment gradually accumulates, easily attracting many to short. If this is a bear trap, shorts face the risk of a sharp reversal.
However, whether the previous big rally can be replicated depends not only on the pattern. The key is whether 83000 can be firmly held and then further reclaim the 84000–85000 range.
If a new low is made again, the false reversal hypothesis will be invalid.
If the 83K support holds, these short positions could very likely become fuel for the next rally. $DOGE perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.09058, now at 0.08687, floating profit +204.79%.
After a failed breakout above 0.09, it directly plunged in a deep waterfall dump. I followed the short trend with a stop loss set above 0.093. With 50x leverage and a very small position, the movement was much weaker than expected, free-falling directly to around 0.086, doubling the return!
Moved the stop loss up to 0.09058, now watching if the 0.08 whole number support can hold.
$ETH $SOL #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC This round of decline, don't just focus on the candlestick chart.📉
The price fell below the recent sideways support with high trading volume, which looks severe, but what’s really worth pondering is: the open interest only dropped to about 29.93k, not shrinking drastically with the sharp fall.🤔
Normally, a sharp drop tends to trigger long liquidations, sweeping leveraged positions, so open interest should decrease significantly. But this limited pullback indicates what? The funds that entered during the sideways consolidation in the past two days were not scared off by this bearish candle and are still holding in the market.💼
In other words, selling pressure has indeed arrived, but the capital has not fully withdrawn. The price break is superficial; the key is that the chips have not dispersed. The market may not be simply collapsing, but more like a high-volume turnover and stress test.🔍
What to watch next is not how fast the price falls, but whether the open interest remains stable and if the funds truly exit. If volume and price continue to diverge, a rebound or resistance could appear at any time.🚀 Don’t be led by the price; understanding the capital’s attitude is more important. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ Samsung Wallet is going to support USDC, and at first, I also thought sending money abroad would be free from now on.
I checked the original text from Samsung Newsroom, and the footnotes are quite clear. The free service is for transferring USDC to another wallet or exchange. If you directly send money to the recipient's bank card, it can reach over 60 countries, but fees apply, varying by country and amount, and you can only see them in the app before confirming.
The 82 million mentioned refers to the number of Galaxy phones in the US that can use Samsung Wallet. If you really want to use it, you must be a US resident over 18 and pass identity verification. Samsung here doesn't have this feature yet.
So if you're hoping to save on remittance fees with this, don't get too excited yet. Wait until the end of the month to see how much the bank card transfer fees will be. If that turns out to be free too, I'll admit I was wrong.
#三星钱包将上线USDC跨境转账 The buying position has arrived. Bitcoin tonight directly smashed through 825, hitting a low of 81989, now around 82300, ETH at 2533, SOL at 1.15. The first key level we've been waiting for half a month has been delivered by the market tonight. But the more critical the moment, the calmer you must be; don't just blindly buy because the price has reached a level. The key is to see how this level holds tonight. Focus on one signal: can 825 be quickly reclaimed? If in the late night volume picks up and it stands back above 825, it means support is effective, panic selling has been absorbed, and this is a textbook-level buying point. The first level can be manually confirmed on the spot; if it stays below 825 with weak rebounds, it means this level can't hold, so hold your hands and wait for the second level at 80,000, don't rush to catch a falling knife. The big picture behind this drop is the US 10-year Treasury yield surging to 5.3%, a 24-year high. The higher the risk-free rate, the more risk assets get drained. Bitcoin is being pulled back by macro factors, not because its own fundamentals are bad. Today it has fallen nearly 6% from the high, the deepest correction in this rally so far. Panic selling is happening, liquidations are increasing, but the first decent correction in a bull market is always money given to those who are prepared. Trading discipline remains unchanged: don't pre-set stop losses, don't go all in at once, wait for support before acting. Tonight is worth watching closely. 14.2 billion, I counted the zeros three times
In the third quarter, there were 1.42 billion non-voting transactions on the Solana chain, 45% more than in the second quarter. Another set of numbers: the number of addresses holding tokenized stocks on-chain reached 1.2 million, with 775,000 new ones added in September alone. Note, non-voting transactions mean real people transferring real money, not machine-generated.
What does this mean? It means there is a massive amount of real buying and selling happening on this chain every day. During these days of price stagnation, things are actually quite lively beneath the surface.
But I have to admit, my first reaction after seeing the data wasn’t happiness, it was frustration. The data is so solid, yet the market is completely still. I scrolled through the charts up and down looking for reasons but found none. I almost uninstalled the market software.
Later, I made a rule for myself: data is data, emotions are emotions. The people on the chain haven’t left, so why should I panic?
Starting tomorrow, I won’t open the market software for three days and will check it again on the weekend. $SOL continues to be staked, and people go out hiking. 8:30 ET 初请失业金 19.7 万，低于预期 20 万。盘前 QQQ 约 -0.64%，10Y 美债收益率仍在 5.34% 附近，布油升至 105 美元上方。 这套组合对高估值科技股并不友好。 今天不追低做空，优先等反弹给位置 🥇 INTC｜反弹空 今天三个机会里，我更倾向 INTC 空单。 不建议盘前弱势直接追空，等价格反弹到： 111–112.2 → 出现承压再空。 止损 114.2。 TP1 108–108.5，如果大盘继续走弱，再看 104–105。 取消条件：强势站稳 114.2，或者开盘后半导体板块整体快速转强。 ⸻ 🥈 QQQ｜指数反弹空 今天宏观环境对 Nasdaq 不友好： 高油价 + 10Y 维持高位 + 盘前科技偏弱。 但同样不能低位追。 754–756 反弹受阻 → 空。 止损 759.5。 TP1 749–750，TP2 744–746。 **取消条件：**QQQ 强势突破并站稳 759.5，同时 10Y 明显回落。 ⸻ 🥉 PLTR｜唯一保留的多单 PLTR 是今天少数还能考虑多的强势票。 但因为大盘环境偏空，所以仓位明显降低： 196–197.NVIDIA hasn't invested in many Crypto projects, but a few names are quite representative.
Including @MeckaAI, it has invested in a total of 9 projects, among which the classics include $INJ, $ATH, $RENDER, and $FIL.
What’s really worth looking at is not "which coins NVIDIA invested in," but why it chose to invest in these directions.
$RENDER corresponds to rendering computing power, $FIL corresponds to decentralized storage, and other projects mostly fall into computing power, cloud services, and infrastructure.
The logic behind this is simple: AI development requires more and more computing power, storage, data, and infrastructure, and what Crypto tries to solve is exactly how to turn these resources into networks that can be globally scheduled, settled, and traded.
Including @MeckaAI, which aims to build an "embodied AI data layer" to solve data infrastructure problems for the robotics and AI industries.
So when studying this list, instead of asking "which coin NVIDIA bet on," it’s more valuable to ask:
What exactly is AI lacking in its next phase?
The investment focus of industrial capital can provide an industry map, but it cannot be directly taken as a signal for coin prices. After dinner tonight, I video called an old buddy who also holds $DOGE and entered the market two years before me. I said I was a bit annoyed by the recent drop, and he was silent for a moment before saying, "Take a look at the monthly RSI."
I opened it to take a look. The monthly RSI has now dropped to the lowest level since Dogecoin was born in 2013. The major bottoms in 2015, 2020, and 2022 never fell this low.
My buddy said that since he got in 2017, every time the RSI dropped to this level, it later went up. But before every rise, it was the hardest time—no one spoke in the group, and the forums were full of "Dogecoin is dead."
I scrolled through the group chat. The last message was three days ago, a guy sent a meme, and no one replied.
After ending the video call, I leaned back on the sofa and thought for a long time. I don’t believe that such quietness is a bad thing.At Token2049, there was a rather sharp judgment: "Web3 is dead, Fintech 2.0 has arrived."
The past narrative of the "decentralized internet" Web3 is fading out, with more projects at the event focusing on three areas: blockchain native, including exchanges, public chains, prediction markets, and Perp; RWA, including asset issuance, trading, compliance, legal, tax, KYC, payments, and custody; and AI + Crypto agent trading.
So what really "died" with "Web3 is dead" may not be blockchain itself, but the grand narrative of "reinventing the internet."
Now the industry is more concerned with: how assets get on-chain, how trades are completed, how funds are settled, and how institutions comply.
Especially with RWA, when the keywords shift from "decentralization" to compliance, legal, tax, KYC, payments, and custody, it means the service targets are moving from crypto-native users to institutions.
The true direction of an industry is often hidden in the booths, not in the whitepapers.
Web3 may not really be dead, but blockchain is increasingly looking like a financial infrastructure business.1615 applications. For this round of ICANN top-level domain applications, it was the first time I saw it and thought I was mistaken.
Question: What does this have to do with the crypto world?
Answer: Not much, but it has some flavor.
.btc and .bnb domains are being grabbed, indicating that crypto projects still want to squeeze into the "mainstream internet."
Another question: Then .agent was grabbed by 13 companies, including OpenAI, Meta, and Google. Is this good news for AI coins?
Answer: No. A domain is a domain, a coin is a coin.
This wave at most counts as an emotional boost; don’t forcibly link it to the market.
Third question: So what should we watch?
Watch whether the .btc and .bnb domains get approved.
If approved, the narrative moves forward a step.
If not, it’s just self-excitement.
I’m currently leaning towards waiting and watching, waiting for the results to come out before commenting.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 $BTC $SNDK feels like a bull trap. I got 1710 at the open, and I immediately joined the short side 今天加密市场整体还是偏弱。 但如果只盯着币价，其实容易错过一件更重要的事情： 美国的股票代币化，已经开始从“讨论”走向真实落地。 今晚几个值得关注的事情，简单整理一下。 1️⃣ BTC为什么这两天一直涨不动？ BTC目前仍在 8.3万美元附近震荡，ETH大约在 2550—2570美元附近。 这轮压力主要不是加密内部出了什么大问题，而是宏观环境又开始变差。 最近几个数据同时出现： 美国10年期国债收益率升到约5.3%以上 美元继续走强 油价大涨 而美联储Waller最新讲话也表示，为了把通胀重新压回2%，未来可能仍然需要进一步加息，只是节奏可以更加灵活。 简单来说： 高油价 → 通胀担忧增加 → 降息更难 → 美债收益率高企 → 风险资产承压。 所以最近不只是BTC弱，美股成长股和加密概念股同样受到压力。 现在BTC能不能重新站回8.6万—8.7万美元附近，我觉得短期还是得看美债收益率能不能先下来。 2️⃣ ETF资金也开始明显流出 10月7日，美国现货BTC ETF合计净流出： 4.849亿美元 ETH ETF合计净流出： 1.609亿美元。 而且ETH ETF已经连续多天出现比较明显To understand whether the revenue decline is really a problem, you have to look deeper
Recently, there was a report that Hyperliquid platform's revenue has declined for four consecutive quarters, and the comment section was full of pessimism. At first, I was also worried, standing alone on the balcony for a long time on Friday night, the wind chilling my face. But reading further, it became clear: the revenue drop isn't because no one is playing, but because the platform has shared the cake. Now anyone staking $HYPE can open their own contract market and take half of the transaction fees. These markets already account for about 48% of the platform's total trading volume.
In plain language: this isn't a failing business, it's changing from "one store" to "a whole street." The platform earns a bit less, but the foot traffic on the entire street has multiplied several times, and the cumulative buyback has reached $1.28 billion, with over 40 million HYPE permanently burned, continuously shrinking the circulating supply.
My stance hasn't changed. I'm willing to trade revenue for ecosystem growth; once the street is fixed, the storefronts become valuable.
Those who just look at one quarter's report and give up are not on the same path as me.
When the next quarter's report comes out, I'll probably be shocked again, maybe. But I've already warned myself in advance: look at the buyback numbers first, then the revenue—don't get the order wrong.#Samsung Wallet to Launch USDC Cross-Border Transfers
Samsung first clarifies that it is not a bank, not a remitter, nor a custodian; then it states that by the end of October, cross-border USDC transfers will be available on 82 million phones.
▪️ The 82 million refers to the "number of Galaxy devices compatible with Samsung Wallet"—as defined in Samsung's footnote. This counts phones, not people.
▪️ Licensing and custody are external: Bastion holds the ledger and assets, with secondary custody handled by a publicly listed U.S. exchange.
▪️ In the same announcement, transfers to external wallets are free of Samsung fees; transfers to bank accounts in over 60 countries still incur fees, based on destination and amount.
▪️ Solana and Sui each issued their own announcements without mentioning each other; Samsung did not specify how the two chains will be divided.
The debate is not whether 82 million devices can become users, but on whose name the "entry point" is registered. Samsung provides the devices, interface, and user relationships; money, licenses, and verification are handled by licensed parties. It did not open a new entry point but is offering the phones as counters.
What should be monitored is not the number of installed devices, but the on-chain volume. My perspective is "chain benefits, brand as a pass-through": users indeed do not need to install another app, but this volume only manifests on-chain—if it cannot be measured as attributable incremental volume, coverage means no conversion.In the past 7 days, Solana has been far ahead in the growth of tokenized stock holders!
One chart clearly explains the growth of tokenized stock holders across various chains over the past 7 days.
$SOL ：+150,600, far ahead.
$BNB ：+73,800, ranked second.
Robinhood Chain: +18,800, ranked third.
Other chains:
Base: +4,600
Ethereum: +4,600
X Layer: +997
Ink: +561
HyperEVM: +13
Monad: +12
$ARB ：-100
A few noteworthy points:
First, Solana's new holders are more than twice that of the second place🦈 Thursday morning: The minutes were hawkish, BTC dropped to 82000, Brother Maji's ETH is only $30 away from liquidation, BOME rose 9.6% against the trend
$BTC 82383, down 1.29%, continuing to fall from 83149 to 82383. The FOMC minutes came out, most officials favor another rate hike, and the market voted with its feet. 82000 is a threshold; if it holds, expect a rebound to 83500, if not, look down to 80000. ETF inflows continue but can't stop rate hike expectations; don't bottom-fish today.
$ETH 2531, down 1.50%, falling from 2564 to 2531. Brother Maji's 39,000 ETH long liquidation line is at 2501, now only $30 left; another 1.2% drop means $100 million liquidation. 2500 is the key sentiment level across the network; breaking it will trigger chain liquidations. Watch this level closely.
$BOME 0.001035, up 9.60%, the only big gainer in the market. BOOK OF MEME rallies against the market plunge; meme coin funds are rotating. If 0.001 holds, look to 0.0011. This kind of coin is a bet on sentiment during a crash, don't hold heavy positions.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Three key points this morning: BTC eyes 82000, ETH watches 2500, BOME don't hold heavy positions. Don't bottom-fish under rate hike expectations; wait to see if Brother Maji gets liquidated.The borrowing costs of UK government bonds are soaring across the board.
The 10-year gilt yield is at 5.527%, the highest since 2007; the 20-year is 6.00%, and the 30-year is 6.047%, both reaching new highs since 1998.
Why is a new high in yields a problem?
Because yield essentially represents the price the government pays to borrow money. The higher the yield, the more return the market demands to continue lending to the government.
What’s more concerning is that this rise is not limited to a single maturity but the entire curve for 10, 20, and 30 years is moving up together.
On one hand, inflationary pressures have not fully disappeared; on the other, fiscal deficits require the government to keep issuing debt. The combination of these factors ultimately reflects in financing costs.
Comparing this with the previous day’s US Treasury auction, the difference is even clearer: US Treasuries received 2.77 times oversubscription, while UK long-term yields surged to nearly a 30-year high.
Although both are issuing debt, the market is pricing these two "IOUs" differently.
What truly deserves attention is not just how much yields have risen, but how the market is beginning to reprice sovereign debt and fiscal capacity.Evening session on October 8｜OKX spot 21:03 (Beijing)
U.S. stock market regular open at 21:30. Waller said today that if data meets expectations, rate hikes are still needed but the pace can be flexible; this is a personal view, not a new decision.
BTC around 82,226 (24h -1.58%), the 82,750 level from the morning has been lost, with 20-period moving averages on 1-hour and 4-hour charts pressing down. Support at 81,940, rebound first targets 82,520, then 83,020.
ETH around 2,528 (-1.53%), has fallen below the morning 2,536; if 2,517 is lost again, it remains weak, after reclaiming 2,540 look for 2,565.
ZEC around 1,206 (-8.76%), clearly weaker after losing 1,289 in the morning, daily 20 MA also turning down; watch the 1,194 low, rebound back above 1,229 then look at 1,246.
Hot topic ETF discussions cannot replace immediate buying pressure; tonight focus on whether volume and price can recover after the open.
My positions: BTC and ETH remain 10x short, ZEC is 20x short, attached is the latest ETH position card. Although there are floating profits, also guard against sharp rebounds, do not treat the decline as a one-way street. For market record only. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC $7.5 UNI, did you sell?
The fee switch passed, the treasury burned 100 million UNI at once, worth nearly $600 million, with annualized burn once exceeding 250 million — yet the price dropped from 9.2 to 7.5 in three days. Just now, BTC broke below 83,000, and oil prices rose above 102. Is this a "pullback after good news realization," or a pump-and-dump by whales using the burn as a cover?
First, on the surface: a unanimously approved major positive, but the price slapped back.
On October 5, it was still 9.24; on October 7, it dropped sharply to 7.67; today it continues to hover around 7.5. Down 14% in the past 7 days, market cap at $4.8 billion, still 83% below the 2021 high of $45. The candlestick chart shows: the 20-day moving average at 9.0, price below the average, RSI only 46 — technically speaking: after breaking support, the lower edge means rebounds are for reducing positions, not reversals.
First point: UNI has finally started "eating volume," but the market already priced this in long ago.
The harshest criticism of UNI used to be: "Uniswap has hundreds of billions in daily trading volume, but the token is nothing but a voting tool."
That statement is now outdated. UNIfication passed almost unanimously, the fee switch is implemented, and some pools’ fees go directly to buyback and burn. The treasury burned 100 million tokens, worth $596 million at the time. Hayden Adams said annualized burn once exceeded 250 million.
This is the first time in UNI’s history that protocol earnings truly flow back to token holders.
Sounds like a get-rich script? The problem is — the market already ran from 5.2 to 10.9 in September.
The day the switch was implemented was the day of "selling the fact." From 9.2 down to 7.5, what fell wasn’t the burn, but the expectations priced above $9.
The most expensive four words in crypto: "good news realized."
Second point: The burn is real, but macro conditions are unsupportive.
In September, protocol revenue was $14.7 million, with Robinhood Chain contributing over half — not a bad figure.
But the problem is — the Fed rate remains stuck at 3.75%-4.00%, the September minutes mention "possibly one more hike before year-end," Brent crude oil rose above 102, and BTC broke below 83,000 to 82,800.
UNI is a DeFi beta, more volatile than BTC. When BTC drops 1%, UNI drops 3%; in a risk-off market, it’s the first to get hit.
So this drop from 8.7 to 7.5 isn’t because the burn was canceled, but because oil prices, Fed minutes, and the overall market dealt a triple blow.
Third point: The technicals have reached a critical level that must be closely watched.
The path is clear: September low 5.2-5.8 → late September high 10.9 → October 5 at 9.24 → October 7 at 7.67 → today at 7.5.
7.5 is stuck at the lower edge after breaking support. Holding 7.3 can still be a deep pullback; failing to reclaim 7.8 means rebounds are just position reductions.
Upside: 7.7-7.8 (yesterday’s low + today’s open, now resistance) → 8.2 (upper value zone) → 8.7-9.0 (lost platform)
Downside: 7.5 (current price) → 7.3 (psychological level) → 6.9-7.0 (around September 8 + round number) → 5.8 (30-day low)
No volume surge to reclaim 8.2, don’t talk about 9.0. Daily close below 7.0 means short-term deep correction.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
The fee switch is live, buyback and burn are real, annualized 250 million
September protocol revenue $14.7 million, Robinhood Chain over half
30-day outlook +10% to +25%, mid-term trend intact
Burn is about 5% of $4.8 billion market cap, UNI is no longer "zero capture"
On the other side:
Expectations above $9 already priced in, selling the fact is happening
BTC broke below 83,000, oil at 102, Fed may hike again
20-day MA at 9.0 pressure, RSI 46 not oversold
7.5 relative to September low 5.8 is still not cheap
Key level 7.5 is now the bull-bear dividing line.
What can be done is to hold 7.0 or wait to reclaim 8.2, not to go all-in fantasizing a return to 9 at the breakdown.
Trading strategy
Aggressive:
Light long positions near 7.5 max, stop loss at 7.15. First target 7.8, second 8.2. Reduce half at 7.7. Don’t add if oil prices keep jumping.
Conservative:
Wait for 6.9-7.1 to consider, stop loss 6.6. Better to follow after reclaiming 8.2. If not reached, stay out — staying out is also a position.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing if volume surges and holds above 8.7, with pullback not breaking 8.2; target 9.2. This condition is not met now.
Bearish:
If rebound from 7.8-8.2 is weak, light short positions with stop loss 8.4, targets 7.5 and 7.2. Don’t short near 7.0 blindly.
Three iron rules of risk control:
Daily close below 7.0, reduce positions, next support at 6.3, 5.8
If BTC breaks below 82,600, UNI should deleverage first
If monthly burn is significantly below annualized 250 million pace, 7.5 likely to break
Single trade risk no more than 2% of total capital, leverage no more than 3x. It can drop from 9.2 to 7.5 in two days, and then slap you again from 7.5.
UNI now is like ETH in 2021 — the protocol is the strongest, but the token price is the worst.
Everyone knows Uniswap is the DEX leader with 46% market share, but knowing and profiting are two different things.
It’s not that UNI’s burn is useless, it’s that you always rush in on the day of good news announcement, then sell on the third day of pullback.
Watch two things: can 7.3 hold, and will BTC hold 82,600.
$BTC $ETH $UNI $ZEC perpetual 50x short position, opened at 1319.34, now at 1209.21, floating profit +417.36%.
The logic is very simple: the 1320 whole number resistance was tested multiple times without breaking, volume decreased, clear top pattern. Finally waited for a big bearish candle to short. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1350. The movement was very smooth, no chance for a rebound, directly smashed down to 1209.21. $ETH
Trailing stop moved up to 1319.34 to lock in profits. If the 1200 support breaks with volume, can hold a bit longer to see 1150. $DOGE
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC Folks, listen to me for a moment. This market situation is giving me a headache.
At the 82383 level, damn it! The manipulative whales are really ruthless, forcefully dumping money downwards. From a pure technical perspective, the 4-hour moving averages are all broken, MACD has a death cross pushing down, and volume is still expanding. This is not a simple pullback; it's clearly a shakeout to clear leverage.
Don't rush to bottom-fish, trust me on this, this wave is bearish first. The resistance is around 82600 above; a rebound up there is a shorting opportunity. Below, watch 81000 first, if broken, it will head straight to 79500.
I've been through several bull and bear cycles, this kind of dumping is very familiar. Those who want to follow, be aware and don't over-leverage. 🧘♂️
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Contract leverage carries extremely high risk, please manage your position size yourself, profits and losses are your own responsibility.
👇👇👇Tom Lee's Bitmine ETH hoarding may be approaching a critical point.
Currently, Bitmine holds about 6.016 million ETH, accounting for approximately 4.9% of the circulating supply, about 100,000 ETH short of 5%. At the recent buying pace, it could reach that threshold in six to seven weeks.
What’s worth watching here is not the 5% figure itself, but the impact on supply and demand once an institutional position reaches a certain scale.
While buying continuously, it represents part of market demand; once it stops, marginal buying pressure disappears. If they reduce holdings in the future, such a large position could become potential selling pressure.
Therefore, institutional hoarding shouldn’t be judged solely by “how much they bought.”
It’s more important to see:
How far they intend to buy, and what they will do once they reach that point.
The market tends to focus on the accumulation process, but the real turning point often happens when that continuous buying hand stops.BTC's rapid decline in the past two days: multiple negative factors triggering leverage liquidation
In the past two days, Bitcoin has fallen from $86,000-$87,000 to $82,000-$83,000, driven not by a single negative shock but by a combination of macroeconomic, capital, and sentiment factors.
The Middle East situation has pushed crude oil prices above $100, inflation expectations have warmed, and the market has lowered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply, the dollar has strengthened, raising the opportunity cost of holding the interest-free asset BTC, leading to a collective withdrawal of risk capital. U.S. stocks weakened simultaneously, amplifying the decline of high-beta crypto assets.
After the price broke below the $84,000 mark, long positions in contracts triggered concentrated liquidations, with billions of dollars liquidated across the network within 24 hours. Forced liquidation selling continued to hammer the market, creating a negative feedback loop and a stampede. At the same time, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw large net outflows, institutional buying disappeared, and the market lost support. Additionally, large BTC transfers from U.S. government-related addresses to custody platforms further amplified market panic.
Technically, multiple failed attempts to break above $87,000 indicate short-term long positions are crowded, and the macro environment cooling triggered a concentrated pullback. Short-term support is seen at $81,000-$83,000; if broken, the next target is $80,000. For the market to strengthen, it needs to regain and hold $85,000-$86,000. Going forward, key focus will be on CPI data, Federal Reserve statements, Middle East oil prices, and ETF fund flows.
#BTC #MacroMarket #LeverageLiquidation Dogecoin gets the "entry ticket" from US regulators
On October 2nd, Kalshi launched Dogecoin perpetual futures, regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Compliant trading, and I heard there are tax advantages.
A one-sentence news item worth saying a few words about.
I don't touch perpetual futures; the weight of this news isn't in the product but in the issuer of the license. The regulator's willingness to open the door for Dogecoin derivatives is equivalent to official recognition of its asset status. An unserious asset wouldn't get this treatment.
Looking back over the past two years: spot ETFs listed, compliant futures launched, custodians entering the list. $DOGE's status is rising step by step. Each move is small, but the direction has never changed.
My view in one sentence: prices can deceive, licenses cannot. Short-term fluctuations are emotions; compliance progress is fact.
Hold the spot, don't move. This kind of news is worth more than a two-point price increase. The U.S. auctioned $39 billion in 10-year Treasury bonds yesterday, receiving about $108 billion in bids.
The bid-to-cover ratio reached 2.77, the highest since 2016.
Simply put, the U.S. wanted to borrow $100, and the market submitted purchase requests totaling $277.
Even more interestingly, before the auction, the yield on this batch of bonds was about 5.317%, and the final yield settled around 5.30%.
With strong demand, the issuer was able to push the interest rate down a bit, indicating that demand for this auction was not weak.
However, it’s important to note that the 2.77 ratio does not mean that 2.77 times the funds were actually transacted; rather, it is the ratio of the total bid amount to the issuance size, acting more like a demand thermometer.
What’s truly worth pondering is another figure: 5.30%.
The attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries largely comes from this yield being sufficiently high.
So, good bond sales don’t necessarily mean the market has abundant liquidity.
On the contrary, it might mean:
The risk-free yield has risen enough to make capital willing to pause for a certain return.
For non-yielding assets like gold and BTC, this implies a higher opportunity cost.#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
The leader has something to say
I've already written twice today about the treasury increasing holdings. The core is one sentence: the treasury is buying, but the price isn't supported, and funds are withdrawing.
But there's a new signal. Tom Lee from BitMine said at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that they want to cap ETH holdings at 5% of the total supply as a hard limit. BitMine currently holds 6.01 million ETH, with a total supply of about 120 million; 5% is 6 million. It's almost at the limit.
This means the largest ETH treasury company will stop buying. BitMine's previous continuous accumulation was an important support for ETH spot demand. Now that they openly say they won't expand further, ETH loses a key buyer.
This has little impact on BTC but is structurally bearish for ETH. ETH ETFs are already seeing outflows, and with the treasury stopping purchases, it's harder for ETH to strengthen in the short term.
My short BTC position at 86,500 is still open. The logic hasn't changed: bullish factors have been realized, resistance above is dense, and funds are withdrawing. Stop loss at 87,500, target between 84,500 and 85,000. Time to reduce positions, leaving the rest to break even.
Control your position size well, don't overleverage. Avoid ETH for now, wait for funds to return. Set stop losses properly, don't hold on stubbornly.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.【On-Chain Trading Update｜SOL】
Monitored address 0x24fb opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $112.46
▪ Transaction amount this time: $388,674.39
▪ Leverage: 9x
Note: This address has earned over $84,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +3.91%
Do you think opening a long position at this level is early or not?Is something big coming?
No.
It's the Federal Reserve digging up old issues.
On Wednesday afternoon, the September meeting minutes will be released.
Not new interest rates.
It's the old ledger.
They dare not raise rates, but can't avoid it either, so they can only raise next month.
The awkwardness is written all over their faces.
The dollar is relatively strong.
Long-term bond yields are above 5%.
Crypto circle:
I want to leave on my own.
Legs: No, you don't.
$BTC at 82,000.
On Monday it surged to 87,000 but was pushed back.
The third probe since September 23.
Like a puppy dog confessing love.
Rejected all three times.
Will the 84,000-85,000 support hold?
It won't hold.
82,000-80,000, will it hold?
ETH
Follows Bitcoin.
Not much change up or down.
Can't set the pace.
Like the quietest colleague at a team-building event.
$OKB meeting in Singapore.
Global Product and Ecosystem Conference.
From an exchange to a fintech platform.
Challenging the universe's largest exchange?
First ask if Binance agrees.
Opportunities come from waiting.
Not chasing.
Just venting.
Not investment advice.
#ThisWeekTheFedWillReleaseSeptemberMeetingMinutes
#BTCWhaleSellingPressureWeakens,ETFFundsNetInflowForThreeConsecutiveWeeks
#USLongTermBondYieldsHitNewHighs,30YearApproaches5.7% $SOL perpetual contract 100x short position: opened at 118.59, now 112.53, +510.16%.
Basis: nighttime volume gap + dominant active sell orders. Stop loss at 120 not triggered.
Execution: take profit on 50% of the position, move stop loss on remaining position up to 114.5. Short position held with volume breakout at 110 down to 105, then reduced volume and stabilized to clear the position. Reject emotional trading, keep the trade clean and neat. $ETH $SOL 二饼一直在三角形内部走盘整震荡，也晃荡了一天，二饼只有重新回到2588上方运行小时级别才能止跌走反弹向上看2633，回不去2588上方运行只能继续在2588-2535走震荡别无选择。 三角形一旦被跌破会二次测试前低，再次回踩前低2535未必能撑的住，因为二饼实在是太弱了。 2535保不住新低2486就来了，想做多二饼的同学留意2535-2486的支撑区间找机会做多，或者等二饼突破2588回踩不破前低2535在多。 二饼带量突破2567右侧追多，2551带量跌破右侧追空，注意观察量能变化，带好止损。 二饼小时级别站稳2567向上看2588-2633。 4小时级别跌破2551向下看2535-2486。 二饼4小时级别正在危险的边缘疯狂试探，在向前一步就是万丈深渊，二饼4小时级别绝对不能收在2556之下运行，一旦二饼3根4小时级别k线全部收在2556之下运行。 上方白框圈出的4小时级别盘整区会被彻底破坏，下方红色箭头所标记的区间都在二饼可下跌范围之内。 所以4小时级别只有保持在2556上方运行才能阻止二饼4小时级别扩大跌幅，二饼4小时级别能维持在2556上方运行还有反弹的机会，回到2556之$ETH $SOL I am willing to take responsibility for my mistakes, but I do not regret any of my decisions, nor will I doubt my own judgment. The reason things didn't go as planned is that I truly did not anticipate this ancient account would liquidate BTC and crash the market.
Because I can't run simulations including such an extremely low-probability event in the results. If I did, it would severely limit our entry and exit points.
After all, it’s impossible for them to liquidate every day, while our strategy profits daily 🥩. As I said, I am not always profitable. If you want someone who is always profitable, go find Ma Bian. I also won’t let my brothers bear the losses. When you’re wrong, you’re wrong. After the loss, it doesn’t affect me; I adjust my breathing and continue to the next battle.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 10.8 US session
XAUUSD
The consolidation range has not yet been broken; be cautious of a drop after the white session's high near 4140 is swept to trigger liquidity above.
Today's major resistance is around 4178.
Nas100
Watch for the formation of a double top. If the neckline at 30900 breaks and then retests the neckline, consider entering a short position; otherwise, avoid buying at high levels. If the 30900 short position is taken, consider taking profit near 30300 and then reverse to go long.
BTC
Weak intraday bias; pay attention to the validity of support at 81850. It's best to wait until around 80,000 to enter long positions. The biggest resistance above remains at 89,000.At 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 8,
The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its last meeting: there might be one more rate hike this year.
All night long, the stock market didn't move, gold didn't move, only Bitcoin moved a bit.
People say the market is immune; this is called maturity.
I actually think this is the part we should be worried about.
What was really strange that night wasn't Bitcoin moving, but that others were too lazy to move.
Why did the stock market and gold have no reaction at all?
It's not that they didn't hear it; it's that this news is no longer worth their reaction. And a market that still twitches at a piece of news is often small, shallow, and easily pushed around. Isn't that so?
Now, why is "no movement" not a good thing?
There are only two possibilities when the market doesn't react to bad news: one is that it has figured it out, the other is that it’s too lazy to think about it. The latter usually happens when risks have piled up so high that no one wants to look anymore. To put it bluntly, it's giving up.
The calmest sea isn't actually the safest; it's just that the wind hasn't arrived yet. So I generally don't take the word "immune" as a good thing.
So what should we really watch?
Don't focus on a single twitch, and don't rush to make up stories about it. A small bullish candle proves nothing.
There can be a hundred interpretations, but the price is only one. The judgment has only one standard: three days later, is it still above 83000? If it holds, it means someone is really buying; if it falls, then the twitch at 2 a.m. and three days later was just a commotion.
Want to predict in advance?
No one can say for sureEthereum might kill the L2 boom itself — simply by fixing its own weaknesses.
Blast, Abstract, Polygon zkEVM, Loopring, ZK, Mint, Swellchain, Sophon, and other projects are winding down or shutting down in 2026.
The overall problem is that the economics no longer work.
But the market misses the main point.
L2s appeared because $ETH was expensive, slow, and limited in throughput. Now these problems are gradually being solved.
Cheaper data availability means lower L2 costs.
Higher throughput and infrastructure development mean that apps, wallets, NFT ecosystems, and payment products no longer necessarily need to run their own network.
Therefore, the closure of L2s does not necessarily mean that Ethereum is losing. It might be the opposite: Ethereum is becoming so efficient that the need for hundreds of separate networks is gradually disappearing.
The next stage of Ethereum might look very different.
Not hundreds of L2s competing for liquidity, users, and fees, but a few dominant networks and Ethereum itself, capable of handling an increasing share of activity.
The irony is that the best way for Ethereum to beat L2 competitors is to become so good that some of them are no longer needed.$SUI I was just complaining to a friend about this week's market, but I have to take back my words, it's a bit awkward.
Yesterday afternoon, I saw SUI's rebound was weak, volume didn't keep up, and it softened under pressure from above. I warned not to chase longs at the top.
Shorted in at 1.1368, covered at 1.0927, +193.96% profit, timing was perfect, those on board should be waking up smiling.
Take 80% profit first, keep 20% at cost price as protection, don't be greedy for the last bit, and don't give back profits if it rebounds.
Panic comes from no plan, losses come from overthinking. Being out of position isn't a sin, opening positions recklessly is the mistake. Now is not the time to rush, wait for the next shot, there will be more opportunities ahead.
$ZEC $XRP The long position at $BTC 82000 has finally been filled, just now BTC plunged directly to 81818.6