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Damn, is Ethereum's biggest bull Tom Lee really about to stop?
A friend at TOKEN2049 in Singapore heard the exact words: "That's a hard cap. We're not gonna be accumulating past 5%."
Meaning: BitMine (BMNR) will stop buying ETH once its holdings reach 5% of the circulating supply.
As of October 4, BitMine holds 6,016,414 ETH, accounting for 4.9% of the total supply, just 89,000 ETH short of the hard cap.
At last week's pace of 15,000 ETH per week, CryptoBriefing estimates it will take 6 to 7 weeks to finish buying.
Besides stopping purchases, BitMine has already staked 5.07 million ETH, earning about 130,000 ETH annually in rewards.
Tom Lee himself said he might sell staking rewards to avoid exceeding the 5% limit.
If he really does this, the previously unwavering biggest buyer will effectively switch to a net seller role of 100,000 ETH per year.
Is the "single buyer narrative" for ETH officially coming to an end? ETFs are also seeing outflows. Who will take the baton next?BTC (2026-10-8)
The first day after the National Day holiday saw a sharp drop followed by a gradual decline. It has now fallen below the important box range I indicated. Below is the previous breakout rebound range. If this position continues to decline slowly, I believe it likely won't hold.
If 82700 continues to break down, then look to consolidate around 81700 to find demand.
Yesterday, after the market broke down, I shorted and am still holding. Unless there is a four-hour candle close above 83500, intraday trading will not focus on longs.500 Yuan Challenge to 100 Million | Live Trading Record Sharing
Full performance publicly available on homepage
Day 13
Initial capital: 500 Yuan
Current account balance: 2176 Yuan
Account withdrawals: 3500 Yuan
The 500 Yuan challenge to 100 million, today $PONS gave me a lesson.
I am 3.5x fully short, opening average price 0.409, current mark price 0.4187, floating loss 8.07%.
Originally confident that bears dominated, but a sudden rebound directly pinned down my short position.
Market view:
Short-term resistance above is around 0.417-0.419, near current levels;
Strong resistance is above 0.43;
Support below returns to my opening price at 0.409, further down is previous low defense at 0.364.
This rebound is a pullback after overselling, not a direct reversal.
But be cautious: short-term bullish momentum has started, if volume continues to expand, it could push up again;
If it can’t push higher and volume doesn’t keep up, this rally is just a bull trap, and bears will have a chance to regain control.
I choose to hold through this volatility, not panic cut losses, nor blindly add positions.
The path to 100 million is about enduring floating losses and sticking to your judgment,
But I know my bottom line; the liquidation price at 0.5012 is still far away, there is buffer space.
The market is not over, the outcome is undecided.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $ZHIPU
I’m not even going to bother with this idiot anymore. Luckily, I bought in at a low price, so I just took some profit and left.
I’m planning to head south to get some spot for the long term. As for contracts, I’ll take a bite if the price is right. It’s roughly bottoming out. The chance of dropping below 76 is low.
Compared to MINIMAX, it’s relatively moderate.
Not holding on doesn’t mean I’m not optimistic; my view still stands. Low at 80, target 100. Margin of error 5%.Damn, this small rebound is making people anxious!
Damn it!
Starting the real trading challenge at 18.78u and pushing upwards!
Currently holding a $ETH long position, with a floating profit of 16.79%.
Entered at yesterday's low, originally planning to take a small profit and exit, but held on without closing.
Watching the hourly chart slowly climb, RSI has already reached around 64, approaching the short-term overbought zone.
Right now, all market funds are waiting for the evening initial jobless claims data, hesitant to push hard.
BTC is still moving sideways, so the sustainability of Ethereum's solo upward move is questionable.
Don't blindly all in just because of this small rebound.
The short-term resistance is at the 2615 level; if it can't break through, there's a high chance it will pull back to 2540.
If the evening data is positive, there will be a chance to challenge above 2660.
At this position, it's best to hold your base position and avoid adding more chasing highs.
You can play the game, but don't lose your head.
#Tonight's initial jobless claims data is key #ETH faces short-term resistance level
$ETH $BTCBro, BTC is at a critical level again. Current price 83188.2, resistance 83831.52, support 83000, leaning bearish.
Let me tell you, don’t chase longs at this level. 83000 is a round number support; if it breaks, we’ll see 82500. I opened a short position with 5000U around 83200, stop loss at 83500, target 82500.
After losing 200,000U, I’ve learned my lesson—not holding positions without stop loss. If you’re unsure, wait for 83000 to break before following, don’t mess around in the middle.
On the road to recovery, stability is more important than speed. $BTC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Lately, I've been focusing all my attention on the crypto market, thinking that tech stocks would also pull back.
Even though I had planned the key points in advance, I kept revising them at the last minute, ending up stuck in the crypto world and completely missing this tech rally.
Sometimes the biggest loss isn't losing money, but missing out on opportunities. I'm really frustrated with myself.😮💨
#SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch
#BTCWhalePressureEases
#SolanaStocksTop4.4B 📉Market drag! SOL gives back gains, OKB resists the trend, HYPE hides reversal opportunities
$SOL｜4H
24h down 4% at current price 116, falling from 124, upgraded bullish news already priced in, purely following the big market beta
4H moving averages bearish, EMA50(119.5) resistance, MACD dead cross below zero line, OI 670 million with no deleveraging, bulls still have liquidation space
Support at 114.3/110, resistance 119.5-120. Most likely to oscillate between 110-120
Intraday range 114.5-118.5, defense at 113.5
Strategy: reduce position at rebound 119~120, do not chase shorts
$OKB｜4H
Resists the trend, current price 131, 24h -3.8%, 7-day +8.4%
OKX completed 25 billion valuation financing, stablecoin yield farming 10% APY continues to catalyze
130-131 is the breakout retest zone, holding it means continuation of uptrend; resistance 138-139 target 143
BTC holds 83000, 130-132 stabilizes for rebound; break below 128 targets 124
Intraday range 130-134 defense at 128.5
Strategy: buy the dip, do not chase highs
$HYPE｜4H
24h down 4% at current price 88.4 unlocking shares for OTC, no selling pressure on the market; Bloomberg access to quotes, institutional bullish news landing
OI 1.75 billion, funding rate annualized -14%, shorts crowded, rebound momentum exists
Support 87-88 break targets 84; resistance 92-93 target 96
Intraday range 87.5-91 defense at 86.5 Brothers, don't rush, don't rush, don't rush, repeatedly emphasizing not to rush to bottom-fish.
"Minutes Not Released Yet, Funds Withdraw First: BTC and ETH Face a Big Test at Midnight"
The Federal Reserve minutes haven't been released yet, but the market is already running ahead. BTC slid from 86693 to 83904, down 2.12% in 24 hours, with a low of 83423; ETH is weaker, quoted at 2588, down over 4%, once dipping to 2563. Volume increased on the decline, some funds don't want to wait until 2 a.m.
The macro situation is also conflicted: ISM Services PMI dropped to 54.9, but the price component surged to 74, inflation pressure hasn't eased; nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%, employment is cooling again. Weak employment and sticky inflation make it the biggest uncertainty whether the Fed leans hawkish or dovish.
Two short-term scenarios:
1. Minutes lean hawkish, BTC breaks 83400, ETH loses 2560, continuing to dip;
2. Bad news lands but prices don't fall, even reclaiming 85000 and 2650, shorts get counterattacked.
Before the minutes, rushing to bottom-fish or chase shorts is unwise. It's not about courage, but patience. Wait for the price to speak first, then decide which side to stand on.
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 It's still dropping here, while the US government cumulatively transferred out $554 million in assets yesterday. What are they up to...
▶︎
$BNB : 40,285.07 tokens, approximately $31.62 million
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$BTC : 4,065.6 tokens, approximately $340 million
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$WBTC : 750.18 tokens, approximately $62.33 million
▶︎
$USDT : approximately $119 million
Except for BNB, all have flowed into Coinbase Prime, purpose unknown; however, there were also large-scale deposit operations in August 2024 and August 2025, so it might be an annual wallet asset reorganization.$CASHCAT On October 8th, according to official news, Bithumb will launch AIA and CASHCAT KRW trading pairs, with trading expected to open locally at 14:00 and 15:00 respectively.
For AIA and CASHCAT, the biggest significance of launching KRW trading pairs is the addition of a trading entry point for local Korean users, while also increasing market exposure and liquidity.
Let me translate: the project team has no financial backing, only continuously sending messages to persuade retail investors to buy. There will be a rebound, but it cannot stop the continued decline. When there is an opportunity, run.$ETH The largest corporate buyer of Ethereum said they will stop buying, and the news caused the price to drop by 5%, but in reality, the market blamed the wrong party; they are just a scapegoat.
BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated on the TOKEN2049 stage: they will stop increasing holdings once they reach 5% of the total supply. It sounds alarming, but looking at the scale, they bought about 15,100 ETH in the past week, while the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of about 408,000 ETH in the same period, which is ten times larger. This buyer has never been the main force driving the price up, just made a scapegoat.
More importantly, that 5% was not sold. BitMine holds about 5.07 million ETH already staked on their own platform, locking them out of circulation. Stopping accumulation is turning off the faucet, not dumping inventory; these two are very different.
The MA30 at 2,614 was lost, and the MA7 at 2,662 and MA14 at 2,673 have turned into resistance bands. The 24-hour low touched 2,536. Analysts' observation range is 2,547-2,565; if it can't recover, the target is 2,190, and this was already circulating last week.
Additionally, Glamsterdam upgraded on October 6 and has been launched on the Sepolia testnet, raising the single block gas limit from 60 million to 200 million. The technical side is raising the ceiling, but the mainnet date is not set yet; this is a slow variable and won't save the candlesticks in the next few days.BTC 83054｜ETH 2575｜SOL 116｜XRP 1.42｜BNB 772
All five major coins are pulling back together, with BNB slightly up against the trend by 0.7 points, while the rest are all green, showing a stronger divergence than expected.
The overall trend in the past week remains volatile, more like profit-taking rather than a single-day directional shift, so don’t be scared out of position by one bearish candle.
BTC holding 80000 targets 85000, which is the key battleground between bulls and bears; ETH holding 2500 targets 2700, if broken then expect 2400; SOL at 115 targets 120, relatively resistant to decline but with shrinking volume; XRP at 1.42 is weak, breaking below targets 1.35; BNB at 750 targets 780, relatively stable.
Roles: BTC sets the direction · ETH sets the strength · BNB watches rotation · XRP watches sentiment · SOL watches resilience, each playing its part.
If BTC rebounds back above 84000 tonight, this pullback will be defined as a shakeout rather than a trend reversal. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #标普500首次站上7800点，纳指再创新高 BTC price has reached the bottom of the range, with key support at 82800. The daily MACD shows a top divergence. Without a strong rebound near support, it will continue to fall. If the trend is strong, it will rebound immediately. I estimate the main force is accumulating here to lure bulls, then a large bearish candle will break 82800. If broken, it will be a false breakout on the weekly chart, a fake bull market. Today, 83500 and 84000 can still be shorted, with a stop loss at 84500.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BTC $ETH Funds have come in, but it still depends on how they are used
For $AAVE, I will first look at deposits and loans separately. Money deposited into the protocol indicates that someone is willing to provide funds; only if people continuously borrow and pay interest will there be subsequent income. The borrowing rate will vary with the utilization ratio and governance parameters. So when I see large deposits, I don't immediately raise my expectations for the coin price. First, I check whether this money has been lent out and how long the borrowing can last. It still dropped about 6.4% over 24 hours at midnight, so both business judgment and market performance need to be carefully considered. What’s worth studying is whether the demand can be sustained; a single transfer cannot answer this question.
For $WLD, according to the established plan, starting July 24, the daily unlock amount will decrease from about 5.1 million tokens to 2.9 million tokens. The supply pace has indeed slowed, but this change happened months ago. Treating it as new good news risks double-counting the same expectation. I’m more concerned about how much enters circulation after unlocking and how much new demand can absorb. Unlocking does not mean immediate selling, but the quantity cannot be ignored.
For $DOGE, about 5 billion new tokens are still issued annually. As the total supply expands, the proportion of new issuance will gradually decrease. This makes me more concerned about sustained demand. A short-lived hype can push prices up, but after the hype fades, how many people are still willing to keep using and buying? Everyone has seen how fast it can rise; how long it can maintain demand is the next phase worth closely watching. 🔥AI computing power hasn't stopped yet, and storage chips are about to "go public and create wealth" first! Solidigm is sprinting toward an IPO, with a valuation possibly reaching $100 billion
On October 8, it was reported that Solidigm, a subsidiary of SK Hynix, has reportedly selected Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters, with JPMorgan Chase, Citibank, and UBS also joining the underwriting team, preparing for a major U.S. IPO next year. The market expects this IPO to raise about $10 billion, with a possible listing as early as 2027, and a post-investment valuation that could even reach $100 billion. However, it is still in the preparation stage, and the specific plan may still be adjusted.
On the surface, this seems like a chip company preparing to go public, but looking deeper, it actually confirms a trend: the real money-burning area of AI has long been more than just GPUs.
As AI models grow larger and more data centers are built, the demand for high-speed, large-capacity enterprise-grade SSDs is skyrocketing. Solidigm itself produces high-capacity enterprise SSDs, and these products are widely used in AI data centers and cloud computing scenarios.
In simple terms: AI handles "computing," storage handles "holding," and the crazier the computing power, the larger the data, so storage cannot fail.
Therefore, I think if Solidigm really proceeds with a valuation at the $100 billion level, the market should focus not on "another IPO coming," but on how capital is repricing AI infrastructure. $SKHY $SKHYNIX Market Analysis: $BTC (2026-10-8)
The first day after the National Day holiday saw a sharp drop followed by a gradual decline. It has now fallen below the important consolidation range I indicated. Below is the previous breakout rebound zone. If this position continues to decline slowly, I believe it likely won't hold‼️
If 82700 continues to break down, then look for consolidation and demand around 81700 below.
After the market broke down yesterday, I shorted and am still holding. Unless there is a four-hour candle close above 83500, intraday trading will not focus on longs.$NEAR price is moving, but the trading volume hasn't shown a corresponding signal, which is more worth watching than the 24-hour +9.36%.
I break it down into two scenarios: A, breaking through 5.47, confirming the short-term structure; B, falling below 4.903, invalidating the original judgment, with the next observation point shifting to 4.741.
Current price is 5.421, 24-hour +9.36%; 1-hour and 4-hour indicators are relatively strong, with volume about 0.36 times the average of the last 20 bars.
No preset conclusion, just watching which condition happens first. Which scenario do you think is more likely to occur first, A or B?
The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull Talk.TOKEN2049,
The big shots collectively released good news:
Eric Trump, the second son of the King of Understanding, said AI is the fastest-growing engine in crypto;
A Robinhood executive said the company bought $25 million worth of $BTC on its balance sheet;
CoinDesk revealed that Wells Fargo is negotiating with Kraken's parent company Payward to provide liquidity for the bank's crypto trading.
But why did $BTC drop?
On stage, they shout slogans and good news,
Off stage, the market crashes hard? 🤣#标普500首次站上7800点，纳指再创新高
Recently, the S&P 500 surpassed 7800 points for the first time, and the Nasdaq also hit a new high. This level is actually quite worth pondering.
In my personal view, on the positive side, the continuous rise of the US stock market indicates that global capital's risk appetite remains. Whether it's stocks or highly volatile assets like crypto, the overall liquidity environment hasn't tightened significantly, which theoretically supports sentiment in the crypto space. However, conversely, with the index reaching this level, the market's expectations for subsequent positive news are already quite full. Once upcoming economic data or policy signals fall slightly short of expectations, and profit-taking at high levels concentrates, highly volatile crypto assets often fall faster than stocks.
It doesn't necessarily mean a one-way move immediately; we take it step by step. The tug-of-war between both sides is still ongoing. Everyone can pay close attention to whether the US stock market can hold this level. Feel free to discuss in the comments whether you think this environment of sustained US stock strength will have a more positive or negative impact on the crypto market going forward. $ETH 📊 Macro sell-off attack! It's not just the crypto market falling alone; next week's CPI will set the direction
$BTC｜Daily chart
The Fed minutes were more hawkish than expected, with unanimous support for a rate hike in September, and most expect another hike by year-end. Bitcoin dropped from 86000 to break through 83000, currently priced between 83100-83500, down 2.7% in 24h.
124,000 people liquidated over 700 million USD, with bulls accounting for 90%. The 85000-87000 range, which had been consolidating for 7 days, has become a trapped zone.
Global major assets are falling simultaneously, indicating macro deleveraging. Robinhood's 25 million USD BTC inflow is a weak positive.
✅ Core lifeline at 83000; holding this level could see a rebound to 85000-86000, breaking below points to 81000.
Intraday range 83000-84300, defense at 82600. Key focus on 10.14 CPI.
$ETH｜Daily chart
Weaker, down 4.8% in 24h, currently at 2570, low at 2544. ETH/BTC rate at 0.0308 is a new low for this phase, with Q3 profit-taking and ETF outflows exerting double pressure.
2500 is the lifeline this week, MACD shows a death cross above zero line.
If Bitcoin stabilizes, only between 2500-2520 is there a chance for an oversold rebound, targeting 2630-2700; breaking 2500 points to 2380-2400.
👉 Not recommended to bottom-fish immediately; wait for stabilization signals at 2520-2530.
Intraday range 2544-2630, defense at 2498.The minutes of the meeting are neutral. Brothers, don't rush to call a takeoff at this position now.
$BTC current price is 85560. It has repeatedly surged and then fallen back, indicating that the resistance above is still significant. Although ETF funds and institutional buying continue to provide support, the market currently looks more like a consolidation and bottoming phase, and it is not yet time to confirm a breakout.
In the short term, focus on the 83000–84000 support and the resistance near 87000. If it can't hold above, it will continue to oscillate; only consider chasing after a breakout with volume.
Having a bottom doesn't mean an immediate rise; being cautious is actually more comfortable.
If BTC can regain volume and stabilize above 87000, then consider whether the market is truly about to open up; if it repeatedly fails to break through or even falls below 83000 again, be prepared for the consolidation range to expand downward.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Gold and Bitcoin: Both are Pulling Back, But Don't Use the Same Logic to View Them
Gold and Bitcoin have both been fluctuating at high levels recently, but their driving forces are completely different. Gold leans towards "safe haven + central bank allocation + real interest rates," while Bitcoin leans towards "risk assets + ETF capital flows + leverage sentiment."
Gold: Weak in the short term, but not bad in the medium term.
After falling from the highs, the rebound strength is insufficient, and the selling pressure above has not been fully digested, so the short-term outlook is for a consolidation repair. Medium-term support remains: central bank gold purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and physical allocation demand have not disappeared. The key is to see if the support below can hold steady; the resistance above needs to be reclaimed for the bearish structure to be clearly alleviated.
Bitcoin: More elastic, but more volatile.
Short-term leverage liquidation risks have not been fully cleared, so prices are prone to sharp rises and falls. Medium-term support still exists: ETF capital flows, institutional attention, reduced supply after halving, and expectations of improved macro liquidity. However, there is obvious pressure in the supply zone above; once capital flow weakens, the pullback will also be rapid.
Current thinking:
Gold is more suitable for a stable base position, waiting for repair confirmation; Bitcoin is more suitable for small positions, phased entries, and participation with stop-losses. Neither is suitable for emotionally heavy chasing of gains right now.
Brothers, can I still hold onto gold? Share your insights in the comments and give your opinions, thanks…The key signal in this BTC sell-off is not the drop itself, but the attitude of the funds.
$BTC suddenly dropped with high volume, breaking recent sideways support, but what’s more noteworthy is that the OI only fell to around 29.93k and did not significantly shrink along with the sharp drop.
Normally, a sharp drop would trigger long liquidations, causing to drop substantially. The limited decline now indicates that the funds entering during the past two days of side.
Over the past two month.When there were only a few cents left in the account and I was forcibly held down, my mind actually became completely clear.
Bitcoin is stuck lifelessly around 83,000, unable to produce even a decent K-line in the short term. If it were back when I had enough bullets, I would definitely be flipping back and forth on the 15-minute chart looking for entry points, afraid of missing a few hundred dollars of fake breakouts.
I went to the balcony to smoke a cigarette, actually very clear in my heart that most of the principal I lost before didn’t die in some one-sided big crash, but purely because I couldn’t stand this cost-ineffective stagnant market and kept fighting with myself.
When the market doesn’t give opportunities, controlling your hands is worth more than any god-level indicator, but unfortunately, every time I have to pay full tuition to understand this.
$AVAX $LINK $SEI DEX tokens on Solana have recently been called out one after another
RAY moved, ORCA moved, today it's MET's turn, up nearly 40% in one day
Around 0.44, market cap 250 million, 24-hour volume between 160 to 200 million.
Nearly the entire market cap turned over in one day
On-chain trading is active, liquidity protocols are the first to absorb volume, somewhat like UNI back in the day
But 40% is already priced in
This sector's funds come fast and leave fast, what we talk about today might not be mentioned tomorrow
I didn't chase, nor do I plan to
Data varies by source, verify yourself.
$MET Winklevoss's affiliated institution has submitted an application to the SEC for a ZEC spot ETF, intending to directly hold ZEC and planning to list on Nasdaq.
This is an important catalyst for ZEC itself, but I believe the greater significance lies in:
US crypto ETFs are gradually expanding from BTC and ETH to more assets.
Once the regulatory framework allows more crypto assets to enter traditional securities accounts, ETFs could become an important bridge connecting traditional capital and crypto assets.
But it is also necessary to distinguish here:
ETF application ≠ ETF approval.
So what the market really wants to trade is not just "having an application," but the subsequent regulatory progress and actual capital absorption capacity.
#Winklevoss旗下机构申请ZEC现货ETF #9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Many friends have asked how to view the market when it is so differentiated, so I'll briefly share my framework.
First, a common sense: on days of widespread decline, localized rallies against the trend are often not trend reversals but rather funds looking for an exit. Don't assume a red market means it's about to take off.
What is the core? It's position management, not predicting price points. Today BTC fell 1.2 points, ETH fell 1.7 points, which seems small, but high-leverage contracts have already been liquidated in bulk; leverage is the real killer.
With risk control comes confidence in holding positions; with confidence comes the ability to seize opportunities; with ability comes long-term compounding. Missing any link means you won't get far. Many people lose not because they can't predict well, but because their positions are so heavy they have to hold on even when uncertain.
Take it slow, first adjust your position to a level where you can sleep well, and worry about the rest later. $BTC #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $BTC on October 6th a year ago, reached a new high in that cycle, with the entire upward phase amplifying about 8.15 times.
Today, a year later, the market structure is different. The whale selling pressure has gradually weakened, and ETF funds have maintained net inflows for three consecutive weeks.
In the next cycle, how many times more can $BTC grow? The answer might be more promising than expected.
#SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch
#BTCWhalePressureEases
#SolanaStocksTop4.4B Maji Big Brother can't hold - that HYPE and PUMP clear is the most honest signal this market is getting weaker. *Big Brother Maji can't hold anymore directly cleared both HYPE and PUMP One profit almost gone one loss still expanding Keeping them not only occupies margin but also disperses focus Better to withdraw first and save bullets for BTC and ETH:* - Cleared HYPE and PUMP = your earlier Maji 38k ETH $100M fighting after losing arm + 0.10% margin brothers + now clearing weak coins first = tiHere’s a cleaner, more punchy version:
Writing
50x leverage really teaches you one thing: the market doesn’t care how confident you were when you entered. 😭
I’m honestly feeling a little stressed about this $NEAR trade.
I went all-in on a 50x short around 4.992, expecting a pullback. Instead, NEAR pushed up to 5.057, leaving me with a floating loss of $100+ and an ROI already around -65%.
#DailyOrbit $BTC 晚间观点：10.7日。 大饼现在正在走下跌之后的自然反弹，但是这个自然反弹没有突破上方红色箭头所指的84395的阻力位，既然反弹无法突破上方的84395的阻力位，那就等大饼二次回踩前低83500吧！ 看看二次测试前低会不会止跌，形成小时级别的双底在去挑战84395的阻力吧！ 想做多的同学留意83500看看会不会在前低附近出现底部信号再去做多，我要做多也会观察这个位置，给到就干，给不到继续看。 一旦前低被顺破会继续向下测试83353-82500的区间支撑，你就记住82500的低点赌跌破啥事没有，假跌破收回也没事，就怕跌破收不回来那就完蛋了，82500跌破收不回来小时级别多头趋势凉了。 大饼上方出现了fvg缺口，缺口的区间是84501-85400附近，这个缺口是怎么来的就是下跌太快导致缺口内部的订单没有成交所以形成了缺口，这个缺口什么时候能补，不知道，但是想补这个区间的必要条件是反弹必须突破84395的阻力，只有突破这个阻力才能去补fvg缺口。 也只有回到84395上方运行，当下的下跌才能止跌，想彻底结束这波下跌并且走反弹必须突破85513，才能止跌走反弹向上看86686的位置A common cross-coin signal: today's market shows very clear divergence, BTC, ETH, and SOL all weakened simultaneously, but NEAR rose nearly 8 points, SAND rose 9.6 points, CRV rose 9.3 points; small caps and mainstream coins played out completely different scripts.
BTC: Long-term holders remain inactive, but short-term leverage liquidations increased, price weakened to 83000; the uncategorized catalyst is macro risk aversion and a stronger dollar.
ETH: Staking outflows slowed, but spot support is weak, breaking below 2575; the uncategorized catalyst is ETF redemptions and Grayscale unlock expectations.
NEAR/SAND/CRV: The counter-trend rallies rely on sector-specific news and capital rotation, not a signal of a market turnaround.
Stay patient until the direction becomes clear; don’t look for exceptions in the common decline, and don’t be fooled by single-coin rebounds into chasing highs. $BTC $NEAR #标普领投Kaiko，布局链上数据标准 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Filecoin is not just about "storing" data; it continuously undergoes public verification: Are these storage providers really reliable?
Filecoin has a project called Dealbot that continuously and publicly tests the actual performance of storage providers.
More importantly, there is verification independent of the official Filecoin system.
Probelab continuously publishes independent data dashboards for the Filecoin network, tracking and measuring storage providers' performance from a third-party perspective.
This means:
It’s not the project itself claiming "I am secure,"
but letting data, performance, and network behavior undergo continuous testing + public observation + third-party verification.
For AI data, enterprise data, and long-term storage,
what truly matters is never just "whether there is storage space," but:
Does the data genuinely exist?
Are the service providers stable?
Is the performance consistently up to standard?
Filecoin is transforming decentralized storage from "storytelling" into a verifiable and monitorable infrastructure.
$FIL
The value of storage is not just capacity, but verifiability. Top institutions and market makers have converged in their early morning views, believing that this round of deleveraging is not yet over, with liquidations concentrated above 85300, and rebounds only treated as short structures. BTC current price is 83256, having broken the 84000 support, with moving averages in a bearish alignment, MACD histogram continuing to weaken, RSI entering oversold territory but no reversal confirmation yet. The liquidation chart shows massive long liquidations around 85352, and the price rebound there will encounter strong selling pressure. New resistance forms near 86000, and real buying interest below is still not visible.
Just parked the car by the roadside and made a follow-up call, glanced through the orders single-handedly, this position is not for rushing to bottom-fish. The main strategy is to short in batches on rebounds to 84200-84800, with stop-loss defense above 85600, and take-profit targets at 81500-80500. If the price directly breaks below 82500 with volume, a short can be chased near the 83000 rebound, with stop-loss at 83800 and take-profit at the 80000 level. Persist in not catching falling knives, wait for institutions to clear out the longs first.
$BTC
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代
@OKX星球 $ETH 10.8日。 二饼小时级别白色箭头所指高低点全部在降低，这是不是下跌趋势，你知道是下跌趋势为什么你还在多多多？ 都没有出现止跌信号你多啥你多，是不是一直做多一直被打止损。 我现在很明确的告诉你二饼小时级别的多头趋势已经被破坏，并且二饼现在并没有出现止跌信号，不要去抄底做多。 想做多就做右侧突破单，别有想左侧抄底的想法，在下跌趋势面前所有的支撑都是用来跌破的。 二饼现在连2585都上不去了你怎么做多，二饼回到2585上方运行现在的下跌才能止跌，回到2634上方运行才能走反弹向上看2678的位置，当下二饼小时级别大红框圈出的盘整区已经被跌破，并且出现了结构的破坏。 只有回到2634大红框之内运行才能解救二饼，否则二饼的下跌才刚刚开始。 2585无法收回就去2535-2500找止跌信号吧！能回到2585上方运行才能走2585-2634的盘整震荡，开始重新选择方向。 二饼带量突破2594右侧追多，2578带量跌破右侧追空，注意观察量能变化，带好止损。 二饼小时级别站稳2594向上看2634-2678。 4小时级别跌破2562向下看2535-2500。 二饼4小时级别终极还是没有收Today I canceled the second batch of limit buy orders for trump. Today is October 8th, and the US midterm elections are on November 3rd, less than a month away. My original logic for buying trump was that US funds would pump the coin most related to the midterm elections.
But now with less than a month left, it seems like there’s not much movement, and it has dropped quite a bit. The second batch of buy orders is no longer necessary to buy, to avoid losing more. The trump token project team is really shady; with such a big midterm election benefit, they don’t pump the price, only know how to sell and dump the coin, disgusting.
Before November 3rd, whether I make a profit or a loss, I will clear out all trump tokens. Last time, I tried to capitalize on the World Cup benefit with chz, initially making a few dozen percent profit but ended up cutting losses. For trump, I also made money at the start, but it looks like I’m likely going to lose money and cut losses again. The initial principal of $3000 is now less than $2200, feeling sad. 10.8 Erbing $ETH
Short strategy: Pull back to 2535-2525, lightly buy the short
Short positions can only grab a short-term rebound from oversold conditions, don't expect a bottom reversal. Wait for the price to pull back to the 2535-2525 range and show a stop-fall signal before entering in batches. The stop-loss is set below 2515; if it effectively breaks below the previous low, exit immediately without hesitation.
The upward target is first seen at 2580-2590; take profits at the target, focus on quick in and out, don't be greedy. The major trend is downward, holding too long risks being trapped. #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Holding a position for several months and finally giving it up is rarely because of a large price swing; mostly, it's the way the price moves that wears people down until they lose their patience. A deep drop is one thing, but a never-ending drop is truly deadly.
On October 7, $SOL showed an unpleasant pattern, dropping steadily from above 120 to an intraday low of 115.26. It was a one-sided move throughout, closing without a lower wick. Those who tried to catch the bottom midway ended up floating their positions.
The problem with this pattern is the rhythm. The drop itself wasn’t that severe, but the worst part was the endless downward pressure with no relief. Patience is tested by the lack of any rebound; no rebound means no relief, which is like cutting off the food supply. Those who can endure the depth mostly fail due to the length of the drop.
Despite the panic, the ledger tells a different story. The 24-hour contract open interest didn’t shrink; instead, it increased by 1.6%. The price kept falling, but the overall number of holders didn’t retreat. Every position sold was immediately taken up by someone else.
On the way down, the total contract volume changes in only two ways: either forced liquidations break up positions in batches, reducing the number of participants after the price drop, or all the selling is absorbed, keeping the total volume unchanged. October 7 followed the latter scenario—price dropped, but participants didn’t disperse.
Funding rates are another key metric. If shorts truly had the advantage, the rate would be pushed into negative territory, meaning sellers would pay to hold their positions. Since the rate stayed above zero, there was no leverage-driven dumping during this decline; the selling pressure came from spot market strength.
Those who handed over positions held for months at the lows felt relieved after selling, while those who took them stood their ground. The urgent sellers ended up handing their positions to the patient buyers.Won with club models, lost and had to work in the fields.
This time it’s not a double kill of longs and shorts, it’s pure longs getting buried.
Waiting for the stratosphere with longs didn’t happen, the basement was secured first.
No villa per coin seen, but a pit per coin is arranged first.
Just saw a big player’s delivery chart, held for 7 days, finally closed the last two orders together.
The delivery orders are here, numbers don’t lie:
SOL/USDT Long 50x isolated margin
Open 120.76 → Close 116
Loss -2,502 U, return rate -207%
BTC/USDT Long 10x full margin
Open 84,106.5 → Close 83,154.373
Loss -2,528 U, return rate -3%
SOL lost the hardest, BTC only dropped a little but with a big position, the loss still hurts.
High leverage holding positions is not faith, it’s giving away money.
This 5000U tuition fee bought one sentence:
Stop loss fast, leverage light, staying alive is more important than guessing the bottom.
Don’t always think "just wait a bit more to break even," the market won’t soften just because you hold positions.
Every bit of luck is paving the way for liquidation.
Control your hands, guard your positions, keeping your principal is the only way to talk about turning things around.$BTC BTC breaks a key level, hundreds of millions in longs get liquidated — is another drop coming? At first glance, many traders may blame the latest BTC decline on renewed tensions in the Middle East, oil climbing back above $100, and broad pressure across risk assets. But macro factors alone don’t fully explain the speed of the move. The bigger catalyst was the chain liquidation of leveraged long positions. So, what exactly happened? Yesterday, BTC made another attempt to break the resistance arou$BTC $ETH On Thursday, October 8, after a pullback from the $87,000 high, the crypto market is engaged in a tug-of-war around $83,000. The market may seem tense, but breaking down the structure reveals this pullback is more like a temporary gap left by macro funds relocating, rather than the end of the trend.
Technical Structure: $82,000 is the touchstone, $2,400 is the last line of defense
Bitcoin has retreated from the $87,000 resistance and is currently oscillating repeatedly between $82,000 and $86,000. Earlier on Monday, it tested $87,000 but was rejected, confirming short-term selling pressure above. The key level to watch is $82,000 — this coincides with the price where the May rally stalled, forming a critical weekly technical support. If $82,000 holds, the current weakness is just a high-level consolidation; if it breaks clearly, the market may enter a deeper correction phase. On the upside, the $84,500-$85,000 range is the first area to reclaim; only after stabilizing here can it hope to challenge $87,000 again, and a breakout would open weekly upside space toward $88,500-$90,000.
Ethereum plunged sharply from the $2,615 high to $2,358, then stabilized near $2,400. $2,390 is a key short-term support; if it holds, a rebound to $2,440-$2,450 remains possible; if it fails, a retest of the $2,358 low is likely. $2,400 has been a demand zone repeatedly validated since March, and its hold or loss will determine whether Ethereum’s mid-term structure continues upward or shifts to defensive.
Macro Perspective: Rate hike fears shattered by employment data, dovish shift taking shape
Two weeks ago, the market priced in a 70% chance of a rate hike in October, but September’s nonfarm payrolls recorded only 29,000 jobs, far below the expected 84,000, with unemployment rising to 4.2% and wage growth slowing to the lowest since 2021. This data directly supports expectations that the Fed will pause rate hikes in October, with the probability dropping sharply to about 22%. New York Fed President Williams also publicly stated the Fed “does not need to rush to act.” The dovish macro environment is shifting from suppressing risk assets to providing a breathing window.
Capital Flow: Whales buying at the end of selling, institutions scooping up during pullback
Glassnode data shows the trend of BTC whales net depositing to exchanges ended in late August, with outflows continuing since, indicating that the selling pressure from whales lasting over three months is fading. Addresses holding 10 to 10,000 BTC, including whales and sharks, have collectively increased holdings by 86,702 BTC over the past three weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF still bought 1,426 BTC from Coinbase Prime on October 8, worth $119 million, showing institutional buying has not stopped despite the pullback.
Judgment on new highs in US stocks and capital rotation
Behind the observed “US stocks continuously hitting new highs,” there is indeed a clear capital chain. The Nasdaq’s record highs mean market risk appetite has not contracted; capital is actively seeking high-beta returns rather than full hedging. The current divergence between Bitcoin and US stocks stems from the AI narrative absorbing short-term incremental funds — when the market chooses between “certain AI profits” and “high-volatility crypto assets,” institutions rationally prioritize the former. But this also means that once the AI sector experiences profit-taking or a catalyst vacuum, the first stop for downward capital rotation will be the crypto market. This is not the end of the bull market but a rhythm switch between two high-beta tracks.
Operational Logic
The logic of entering small long positions near $82,000 is valid, with the core bet that the weekly support zone is not effectively broken, and the fading whale selling pressure combined with ongoing institutional buying provides bottom support. However, clear invalidation conditions must be set: if Bitcoin closes below $82,000 on the daily chart, or Ethereum falls below $2,400, a reassessment is needed, as this would mean the pullback has shifted from “high-level consolidation” to “trend weakening.” At this stage, discipline is more important than directional judgment — controlling position size here means you qualify to wait for the market to provide answers rather than being forced out by volatility. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #标普500首次站上7800点，纳指再创新高 On the surface, it's a celebration, but at the bottom, the tide is quietly retreating. Can you really tell the difference between strong sectors and the last leg? Last night, when I was watching $SAND and $RAY, I kept feeling this sense of disconnection. Prices are rising, sentiment is burning, but the structure doesn't feel comfortable to me. Let's talk about $SAND first. Previously, it was lingering around 0.04, with several big bullish candles pushing it straight to 0.0879. Now it's pulling back and fluctuating around 0.082. This kind of steep rally is the easiest to cause fear of missing out, and I've seen many people around me start chasing. But I myself am more cautious, because the faster the phase, the easier it is to dump in expectations for the coming months at once. Some tried to short near 0.063 and are now stuck a bit uncomfortable, which actually shows that short-term momentum hasn't fully drained. But whether this strength is a strong trend or a strong sentiment needs to be viewed separately. Now let's look at $RAY. Doubled in 30 days, rose about 260% in 90 days, reached a high of 2.5733, and is still holding near 2.45. The moving average keeps rising, which looks very impressive. But here's the problem: when the gains have reached this level, pushing further up requires not courage but a brand-new incremental narrative. Without a new story, consolidation at high levels is itself a form of consumption. Some people tried to short near 2.4452, currently mostly fluctuating near cost, indicating that neither bulls nor bears have gained a decisive advantage yet. What really caught my attention was $ZEC tonight's weakness. From 1695 $CT My hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss last night, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety. The last glance before sleep, I saw it pushed up once more, pushing hard, but no one followed.
First, the battle report: entered at 0.3745, exited at 0.3600, +77.43% profit in hand. This gain feels good; everyone in the car should have woken up smiling.
Looking back, this position is actually easy to recognize. The wall above is pressing down tightly, with obviously insufficient support. Every upward surge runs out of breath, and volume keeps shrinking. I'm very familiar with this kind of weak rebound—no one catches on the way up, just handing opportunities to shorts. I mentioned at the time: don’t chase more at this position; the rebound is just a shorting point.
In terms of operation, first secure profits. I closed 80% of the position, keeping 20% at cost price for protection. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don’t give back what you’ve gained—don’t be greedy for the last bit.
The market specializes in humbling all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest.
For friends who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me: chasing in now easily gets stuck halfway up the mountain. Wait for a better cost-effective position on the pullback; I will notify you immediately.
$BNB $LAB $SNDK perpetual contract 50x long position: opened at 1641.9, now 1712, +213.47%.
Basis: large orders absorbing chips + selling exhaustion, bullish momentum confirmed. Stop loss at 1600, not triggered.
Execution: take profit on 50% of the position, move stop loss on remaining position up to 1690. Breakout with volume at 1750, hold long until 1800, top with reduced volume and clear the position. Refuse emotional averaging down, close the trade cleanly and decisively. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 A new liquidity catalyst has appeared in the South Korean market.
On October 8, according to official news, Bithumb will list AIA and CASHCAT against the Korean won, with trading expected to open locally at 14:00 and 15:00 respectively.
For AIA and CASHCAT, the biggest significance of listing the KRW trading pairs is the addition of a local Korean user trading entry point, while also increasing market exposure and liquidity.
However, there is a short-term issue that is often overlooked: exchange listings are often traded ahead by capital, and after the actual opening, "good news realization" is prone to occur.
So my judgment is that the short-term volatility of these two coins will most likely increase significantly, but it should not be simply interpreted as a continuous bullish signal just because they are "listed on Bithumb."
The trading focus should be on three aspects: opening trading volume, the strength of support after a price surge, and whether the price can hold above the opening range.
If there is a volume breakout followed by sustained support, it indicates that incremental capital is indeed entering the market; if the price surges at the open but quickly falls back, be wary of expectation realization and profit-taking sell-offs.
For events like the addition of KRW trading pairs on exchanges, the most important thing is not to chase the first candlestick, but to wait for the market to tell you whether the capital is truly entering or just using the news to exit positions. 10.8 Ethereum $ETH
Trading idea: On the rebound reaching the 2600-2610 range, directly short
This drop is even more intense than Bitcoin's, with heavy volume selling from the 2725 high, bottoming out at 2535, a 200-point drop breaking below the lower Bollinger Band. The short position's firepower is maxed out, momentum is very strong. The current small rebound is just a technical correction after the decline, with no strength to reverse the trend.
The 2600-2610 above was previously a dense trading support zone, now reversed into a strong resistance area. Selling pressure will concentrate here on the rebound, making it difficult to break through effectively. The key short position is defended above 2635, with the first target at 2540-2530; breaking below the previous low will lead to further decline. #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Whales are taking profits at 4.45 million, while another whale has placed buy orders worth 8.32 million! $NEAR, who will you follow?
Brothers, do you think the whales are preparing to exit or add positions at 5.4? The answer is on-chain.
One whale placed 99 profit-taking sell orders covering 98% of their position, with an average price starting at 5.487; another whale placed 15 buy orders between 5.108-5.18, totaling 8.32 million, waiting for a pullback to add. One is exiting, one is stepping in. There is short-term pullback pressure, but mid-term support is present.
Gongming's view:
Don't chase at 5.4, wait for a pullback to 5.1-5.2. Whale profit-taking is a short-term signal, whale orders are a mid-term signal. A stable pullback is an entry opportunity.
Trading strategy:
Wait for a pullback near 5.15-5.25 to go long.
Add positions on a volume breakout above 5.47.
Remember, whales are both selling and buying. Don't be the one left behind. Follow Gongming to understand the buying and selling rhythm of on-chain whales. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $BNB JUST PRINTED A 810.1 REJECTION. NOW WHAT?
I watched BNB spike to 810.1, then slide back to 773.9 on the daily. Three straight red candles, then a small green one. The 90D gain is +34.47%, yet today sits at +0.22%.
Strong trend, cooling momentum. Patience beats chasing.
Is this a pause or a reversal? After barely making it through the long holiday and gearing up to work hard, the Americans come to spoil it again! Early in the morning, I ran into news about the U.S. government transferring coins to exchanges. Damn! You didn’t transfer during the long National Day holiday, but now that the holiday is over and trading is about to start, you come to dump?! It seems China and the U.S. really are rivals.
First, the conclusion: a short-term emotional bomb, but in the long term it’s just "reallocating existing holdings," not necessarily a dump.
In this transfer, BTC and USDT all went into Coinbase Prime, BNB changed hands a few times mid-route, destination unknown.
Coinbase Prime is a custody and institutional brokerage platform, not a retail exchange. When coins go there, it might just be switching custodians or preparing for an OTC auction process, not necessarily listing immediately on the market to dump. Historically, when the U.S. government handled the Silk Road coins, the main method was batch auctions, not direct market sales.
But—the market always trades on expectations, not facts. Once the on-chain data was flagged by Arkham, everyone seeing "government address moving to Coinbase" gave shorts immediate reason to open positions. It’s the same this time; one of the official reasons given for the drop from October 6 to 7 clearly states "Bitcoin moved from government wallets to exchanges." See, the news itself can cause a dump without waiting for actual selling.
#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位