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Today's market in one word: waiting.
The crypto market is undergoing a broad pullback and consolidation. $BTC is hovering around 78,000, $ETH is gathering momentum at 2,450, and $SOL has retreated from 100 to 97. The US stock AI sector continues to face pressure, with NVDA down seven consecutive days; tonight's earnings report will be decisive, and storage chips have been hammered for three days straight.
Two major variables are intensively unfolding this week:
1. Nvidia's earnings report tonight (early morning August 27 Beijing time): revenue expected at 92 billion USD, guidance will determine global AI chain pricing.
2. Jackson Hole meeting tomorrow (August 27-29): Kevin Warsh's speech, interest rate signals will decide the direction of risk assets.
These two events will set the tone for the market in the coming week:
- NVDA beats expectations + dovish Jackson Hole = crypto and US stocks soar together
- NVDA misses expectations + hawkish stance = crypto and US stocks get hammered together
- One good, one bad = continued divergence and volatility
ETFs are still seeing continuous inflows (BTC has had positive inflows for 7 consecutive days, ETH has seen 1.23 billion inflows over 30 days), institutions have not exited. The short-term pullback is due to deleveraging and profit-taking, not a deterioration of fundamentals.
Trading advice: control your position before major events, don't bet on direction. Wait for data before deciding; staying alive is more important than being right.For over a decade, one idea has stood out to me: Combine Bitcoin’s strength as digital capital with Ethereum’s programmable rails. BTC has won as the premier digital asset. Ethereum pioneered on-chain capital markets. Instead of forcing competition, why not integrate the best of both? Think of it like HTTP built on top of TCP/IP. The internet scaled when powerful applications were layered on top of a secure base. Crypto may follow a similar path. If Bitcoin gains modern rails, native yield, and 24-hour level, first time potential energy decay!
On August 22, BTC at $78,000 had a realized profit 24-hour peak of $100 million; on August 22, BTC at $80,600 had a peak of $181 million.
The price is higher, but the realized profit is not higher. Those who have been following my tweets should know what this means, right? Come on, tell me loudly....
Right! — It represents potential energy decay.
Normally, when the price soars, market trading should also be more active. Profit-taking emerges, funds are absorbed, and the price is pulled up; this is a sign of strong demand.
Conversely, if there is an "upward divergence," it means the driving momentum is starting to weaken.
But "weakening" does not mean an immediate "drop"!
It can also be broken by the next wave of demand or a secondary divergence. Until the price holds but the potential energy seriously shrinks.
At least what I can see now is that there was a little problem before $81,000.
It needs to be emphasized that this is not telling you to short!
Rather, if the "small problem" gradually grows bigger, then those who missed the previous opportunity should pay attention and hurry to find a chance to get on board.Bitcoin surged from 62,000 to 80,000, then broke through 81,000 before starting to turn down.
Next is to see if it will consolidate and continue to rise, or if it will drop further. I've laid out everything I can see; you decide for yourself.
First, clarify one thing: this round is a V-shaped rebound from the 62,000 low, so all positions above 80,000 are chips trapped at higher levels this year, a natural selling pressure zone. This is different from a one-sided new high market.
Reasons to be bullish:
1) ETFs are pouring in money crazily. In August, BTC spot ETFs had a net inflow of $2.72 billion, a single-month high this year, with $1.92 billion just last week. BlackRock clients net bought $1.33 billion last week, the largest single-week since the October high last year, buying for 7 consecutive days.
2) Price is above all moving averages, MACD is expanding above zero line, mid-term momentum is still there.
3) The macro narrative of "financial repression" is fermenting, which is a long-term positive for BTC and gold.
Points to be cautious about:
1) The biggest buyer hasn’t moved yet. Strategy (Saylor) hasn’t bought a single BTC this round, sold $2 billion in stocks, and hoarded $6.69 billion in cash. The person who used to disclose holdings weekly has been silent for weeks. Without this structural buying, this round is very different from before.
2) Whales near 80,000 are cashing out crazily; the profit-taking volume is even larger than when BTC first hit 120,000.
3) Volume dropped 20% during the pullback, the rise lacks strength; RSI surged to 82 then fell back, clearly overheated in the short term.
4) Prediction markets’ probability of "touching 82,500 in August" dropped from 60% to 37% in one day.
Key levels to watch:
Upside: 81,200 (current high this round) / 82,000 (Bollinger upper band plus prediction market threshold), only holding above these qualifies for further rise.
Downside: 78,000 (current support) → 74,700 (10-day MA) → 72,000-73,000 (VWMA + previous breakout level) → 69,000 (Bollinger mid-band + 200-day MA, the real bull-bear dividing line).
Two scenarios, no firm conclusion:
Mid-term structure still leans bullish, moving averages aligned bullish + continuous ETF inflows, as long as funds don’t withdraw, this pullback looks more like a shakeout.
But short-term overheating + whale selling + Saylor’s absence + crowded perpetual longs, a deeper pullback (to 74k or even 69k) before rising again is quite probable.
Ultimately, direction depends on three things: whether ETF capital inflows continue, whether volume returns on the rebound, and whether Saylor comes back to buy. These three variables are more important than any chart lines.
Consolidation is not scary; what’s scary is volume shrinking while big players are selling. Watch the money, not the sentiment. The inherent impression that Strategy has given the market in the past is that issuance = buying BTC, which is a very critical institutional bullish indicator in the crypto space. However, in this recent round of ATM issuance, the funds raised were not directly used to buy Bitcoin but instead significantly increased the USD cash pool. This change deserves our attention.
Core change in the event
This continuous fundraising through issuance did not immediately increase BTC holdings. The company's USD liquidity has been pushed close to $6.7 billion, split into two pools: one part is specifically used to pay high dividends on preferred shares and repurchase discounted preferred shares to resolve rigid financial pressure; the other part, the USD-Cash pool, retains the option to buy Bitcoin opportunistically in the future, but no longer blindly goes all-in on the coin price when raising funds.
The underlying logic has shifted from aggressively hoarding coins regardless of price to dynamic management balancing cash and BTC. The annual preferred share dividends are a huge rigid expense. If the company held only Bitcoin, a sharp price drop would cause a cash flow crisis, so now it prioritizes building a safety cushion.
Two possible future scenarios
Scenario 1: Restart buying coins after a pullback (optimistic)
If BTC experiences a clear retracement and market sentiment cools, this large amount of idle cash on the books will be released to enter the market. Large spot buy orders landing will provide solid support to the market, helping stabilize and rebound the price.
Scenario 2: Holding cash for a long time without action (risk signal)
If the coin price continues to surge and Strategy remains inactive, it indicates management believes the current price level lacks cost-effectiveness, and there is a lack of incremental institutional buying support. The sustainability of the high-level market is questionable and prone to a pullback after a surge. Fundamental Research Report $BONK / Bonk (Meme/Payment) $3.20
Conclusion first: Bonk ($BONK) overall score 52/100, rating Narrative over execution. Breaking down into three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Bonk (token $BONK), Meme/Payment sector. Focused on Solana Meme dog. Comparable to WIF, PEPE. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, users lack data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average transaction size $50-500/month, settlement requires USDC or fiat. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal unique monthly active users; concentration of large addresses may overestimate real user count. Revenue side, user fees undisclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background, company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side, total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Bonk $3.00B, WIF undisclosed, PEPE undisclosed. FDV: Bonk $4.20B, WIF undisclosed, PEPE undisclosed. Annual revenue: Bonk $2.00M, WIF undisclosed, PEPE undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Bonk undisclosed, WIF undisclosed, PEPE undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official or industry sources. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Overall: fundamentals solid (score 52/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Risks to note: short-term large unlocks dumping, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: weekly protocol fees, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. Core financial indicators deviating more than 30% require reassessment.
This concludes this research report. If you find it useful, please follow.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitIran Sanctions, Talks & Crypto
Iran–Oman talks are reviving hopes of a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor, sending oil lower and easing immediate inflation fears. At the same time, Washington has expanded sanctions targeting Iran-linked networks, keeping geopolitical risk elevated
$BTC is holding near $79K, while $ETH remains around $2.5K. If diplomacy advances, falling oil and softer risk premiums could support crypto. But renewed escalation or tighter sanctions could quickly reverse sentiment$SPCX SPACEX wireless plan may boost T-MOBILE
Bank of America states that SpaceX's wireless ambitions could benefit T-Mobile, tower companies, and spectrum value.
Building a competitive nationwide network will require huge investments, more spectrum, and years of infrastructure deployment.
Bank of America believes that SpaceX's satellite connectivity complements existing mobile networks rather than replaces them, potentially creating collaboration opportunities for T-Mobile and tower operators.
The current issue for SPCX is: the technical aspect is improving, but unlocking expectations remain. Fundamentally, SpaceX is indeed a good company, but from the contract structure perspective, unlocking is always an unavoidable issue. When positive news keeps emerging but the price reaction is muted, it usually means the market is waiting for a more definitive signal—either the unlocking impact has been fully digested, or there is a sufficiently significant new development to break the deadlock. $BTC $ETH The typical "reverse curse" for traders is very common, not just with ETH, but with almost all cryptocurrencies: short positions enter and the market keeps falling, but as soon as you exit, it rebounds; long positions open and immediately pull back, resulting in losses as soon as you enter.
It's not that the market is specifically against you; there are several practical reasons behind this:
1. Your entry timing happens to hit a short-term sentiment turning point
You can't resist opening a position often after the market has moved a lot and sentiment has reached an extreme. For example, when prices have been falling continuously and panic is at its peak, you short in line with the trend, but at this time, short-term selling pressure has basically been released, and the main players easily harvest the short positions driven by sentiment; conversely, after continuous rises, you chase longs just as bulls take profits. Your trading impulse itself signals a short-term market reversal.
2. The margin trading error tolerance is compressed
With leverage, it's hard to withstand normal fluctuations. Even if your overall directional judgment is correct, small counter-moves can trigger forced liquidation. After liquidation, the market moves in the originally predicted direction, creating the illusion that "as soon as I leave, the market obeys."
3. Profit and loss memory bias (survivorship bias)
Profitable trades are easily forgotten, while the memory of precise opposite losses is infinitely amplified, subjectively forming a strong feeling that the market always goes against you whenever you place an order.
Simple and practical adjustments:
- Avoid chasing trades during extreme spikes or drops; wait for the market to consolidate and oscillate before looking for opportunities;
- Significantly reduce leverage to allow yourself a normal volatility error margin;
- $ESP Oh my god, is this how they shake out the market? That's ruthless. I found an address controlling the market on the chain; basically, the buying and selling are all done by the same address. From this perspective, esp might still have a lot of room to grow. Brent Crude and WTI Crude futures extended their declines, falling more than 3%. Progress was made in talks between Iran and Oman, boosting market optimism about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for navigation. The geopolitical risk premium previously priced into oil prices was quickly squeezed out.
Energy prices retreated, easing inflationary pressure expectations, which is favorable for the recovery of global risk asset sentiment. Risk appetite in the US tech and crypto markets was boosted, with risk assets like BTC and ETH receiving sentiment support accordingly. Currently, this is only an expectation of improved navigation for market trading; related arrangements have not yet been formally implemented, and the Middle East situation still carries the possibility of fluctuations, with the market liable to reverse at any time.After the painful halving from the $126,000 all-time high, whether the current market rebound marks the start of a new bull run or just fireworks before a capital retreat depends on several key real-world variables:
First is the progress of regulatory implementation. The Senate vote on the U.S. "Clear Act" and the SEC's regulatory draft on exemptions for crypto asset financing will directly determine whether Bitcoin can officially enter the "compliant asset" category, thereby kicking off the true "institutional bull" second half. Second is the real stance on macro liquidity. The Federal Reserve's policy choices under inflation and U.S. debt pressure, as well as whether miners' cash flow from transitioning to AI businesses can materialize, will determine the market's cost of capital.
For investors, the current market is a complex "patchwork." In the greed zone of overheated sentiment, blindly chasing highs or panic selling is inadvisable. A rational strategy is to first clarify the tier of assets held: understand Bitcoin through a macro framework, measure RWA by real returns, test infrastructure income by growth stock standards, and strictly treat Meme coins as highly volatile sentiment positions. In this highly volatile market, maintaining rationality and precise tiered pricing ability is the key to long-term survival. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 As the core PCE data release approaches, the capital structure of BTC and ETH shows a very realistic divergence.
Many institutions choose to switch their positions from ETH to BTC for hedging on the eve of macro data. BTC is supported by ETF spot buying, withstanding the selling pressure caused by capital waiting; ETH relies more on on-exchange speculative funds, and once market risk aversion rises, it is prone to independent weakness.
Many people have the misconception that if the market doesn't crash significantly, ETH won't undergo a deep correction. But during the data window period, capital prioritizes shrinking high-elasticity assets, so even if $BTC consolidates sideways, $ETH will experience a larger pullback. The risk of sharp spikes before and after the data release is extremely high, so leverage positions should be protected in advance, and avoid heavy bets on the data outcome. One of the hot topics on OKX right now revolves around Anthropic's valuation of the total addressable market (TAM) at over $30 trillion. This topic has made it to the Top 3 Trending on OKX, with hundreds of thousands of views and hundreds of posts. But the point worth analyzing is not the $30T figure. The bigger question is: If AI can truly scale from a software tool to the infrastructure for the entire knowledge economy, which industries will benefit — and where does Crypto stand in this cycle? 🧠 Something happened yesterday: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the launch of an "economic abandonment operation" against Iran. Five sectors are fully covered: digital assets, gold, shipping, aviation, and technology. Sixty Iranian entities have been added to the sanctions list.
Yellen's wording was tough—"Economic D-Day," aiming to cut off all of Iran's economic lifelines. Any entity helping Iran launder money will be kicked out of the dollar system.
How did the market react? Oil prices fell 2.3% that day, Brent at $92, WTI at $85, breaking a six-day winning streak. The market's message was: you're just talking, haven't really taken action yet.
The Iranian rial has dropped to a historic low, 2,020,000 rials to 1 dollar. On the other hand, Iranian miners hold between 3% and 7% of the global Bitcoin hash rate. The U.S. Treasury had already sanctioned Iran's largest exchange Nobitex back in June.
Then today's latest news came out—U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is guaranteed. Oil prices continue to fall, U.S. oil drops below $80, and Bitcoin falls below 79,000.
A week ago, BTC was still at 64,000, ETH at 1,800. The market was trading on the logic of "sanctions escalation and safe-haven buying." A week later, sanctions really arrived, BTC fell back to 78,000, ETH fell back to 2,420.
What was positive news turned into negative. Now the market is caught in a complex game, and attitudes toward the news are increasingly ambiguous. The complexity of this market and the subtlety of the capital game have gone beyond what simple positive or negative explanations can cover.
$BTC $ETH $CL
#美扩大对伊制裁，海峡复航谈判推进
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 GOLD is maintaining a high-level oscillation above 4600, with institutional funds continuing to increase their positions. Citi has raised the 0-3 month target price to 4800 USD, and the 6-12 month target is set at 5000 USD. A fund manager under Fidelity International has doubled their gold holdings in the past three weeks, with the position already reaching the fund's 5% allocation limit. Gold ETFs increased holdings by more than 28 tons last week, marking the largest single-week increase since January this year. Institutions collectively raised price expectations, accelerating the inflow of incremental funds.
GOLD and BTC essentially price the same underlying logic: the US dollar credit is being continuously consumed. The current US debt scale has exceeded 40 trillion, with annual interest payments already surpassing 1.17 trillion. When founders of leading global hedge funds publicly recommend allocating GOLD and BTC as hedging tools, the mid-to-long-term allocation direction has become clearly apparent. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $BTC $QQQ
In July, during a live stream discussing Bitcoin and Nasdaq exchange rate conversion, I shared a chart showing the long-term comparison of the BTCUSD/NAS100 exchange rate.
1.
At that time, BTCUSD/NAS100 was around 2, now it is around 3.
In the previous cycle, Bitcoin's exchange rate dropped by 72%.
At the beginning of July, in this bear market cycle, Bitcoin has fallen about 65% relative to the Nasdaq.
2.
This chart is very interesting. Friends familiar with Bitcoin cycles can clearly see that the 4-year cycle is still valid.
From 2021 to 2025, the exchange rate peaks are all near 5.
The recent bull market's exchange rate peak did not break much higher.
Also, Bitcoin's exchange rate drop in each cycle is decreasing, with smaller fluctuations.
3.
Based on these signs, I predicted that the exchange rate would start to rebound in July and August, greatly increasing the probability that Bitcoin had bottomed out, leading to a relatively smooth upward trend.
Bitcoin already showed signs of a bottom reversal, so I increased my regular investments and actively tried bottom-side long positions on Bitcoin.
Looking back now, all those predictions came true.
If you don't understand the capital flows in various markets or the complex institutional data, just looking at this Bitcoin exchange rate chart basically lets you understand the current position of Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq. US July PCE is coming, the most critical indicator for the September Fed meeting, is a turning point approaching?
Heavy data is coming. Tonight, the US July inflation data PCE will be released. This is the Fed's most favored inflation data, and tonight could very well be a turning point for the current tech industry.
Why do I say this? Because in the past two weeks, the US long bond storm has swept the globe, with US Treasury yields once climbing to 4.7. The high Treasury yields have caused a significant drop in global tech sectors—not only US, Japanese, and Korean stocks, but also our large A-share tech sector has been falling continuously. Tonight may bring a turnaround because the most important factor for the entire US Treasury yield is inflation expectations, and tonight's July PCE will provide the answer.
The market expectation now is that the overall PCE will drop from last month's 3.7 to 3.6, while the more critical core PCE, which excludes energy and food, is expected to remain flat at 3.3% compared to last month.
If tonight's data exceeds expectations, then the US's two consecutive months of inflation decline will be interrupted, and the Fed is very likely to raise interest rates at the upcoming September meeting. In that case, a major drop tonight would be unavoidable. Not only tonight will see a big drop, but the tech sector could be pressed down hard for some time, meaning the end of this round of AI sector correction would be far off.
Of course, this is a low-probability event. I believe a more likely scenario is that tonight will bring moderately good data. This brings us to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics director, who has continuously released inflation data below expectations this year, whether CPI or PCE, for five consecutive months. Is this a coincidence? Behind this is actually a political task assigned by the current administration.
Currently, US Treasury yields are at a critical point. Although Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has recently taken a series of market rescue actions—raising the bond repurchase limit on one hand and verbally stating that the Treasury's $900 billion TGA account deposits can be used to buy back Treasuries—the market is not buying it. Instead, it believes Yellen is playing tricks and that US credit is losing trust.
Including Stanley Druckenmiller, Yellen's mentor at Soros Fund and financial mentor to both her and Gary Gensler, who just yesterday published a heavy article in the Wall Street Journal criticizing Yellen's market-distorting rescue actions. He believes the current Treasury yields are a wake-up call to the Treasury. The US fiscal deficit is as high as 6%, double the so-called 3% target. He says the current yields reflect your deficit level; the more you try to suppress it, the more you will just be giving away money, and the market will increasingly distrust US credit.
It can be seen that the path of US market rescue has reached its end. Going forward, there are only two ways: one is relying on economic data, especially softening inflation data; the other is relying on Gensler to restore market confidence. Only these two paths can save US Treasuries.
Therefore, tonight's PCE data is a critical path—only good, not bad. If tonight's data is better than expected, I think the key will be the core PCE data, which may come in below the 3.3% expectation, possibly at 3.2 or even 3.1.
If it really comes in below expectations as predicted, then Treasury yields will fall further from the current 4.65, and the entire AI sector will catch a breath, likely marking a turning point at a phase low.
At the same time, this news is also positive for gold and Bitcoin, and can temporarily relieve pressure on global assets.
Waiting quietly for Gensler's speech at the global central bank annual meeting this Friday.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not represent investment advice. Please be aware of risks. Let's talk a bit about today's market. BTC has been fluctuating repeatedly around the 80,000 mark. Yesterday, BTC surged to 81,280, surpassing 80,000 for the first time in three months, but it didn't hold and fell back to around 78,800 the same day. Today, it continues to hover around 79,000, down about 1.9% in 24 hours. After a 23% rise over the past week, short-term profit-taking is quite normal. The ETF side is still buying aggressively. Yesterday, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $314 million, marking the seventh consecutive day of net inflows. BlackRock's IBIT contributed $284 million, and Fidelity's FBTC added $15.4 million. The cumulative net inflow for August has already reached $3.03 billion, just $390 million shy of the monthly record set in October 2025. The Ethereum ETF has also had seven consecutive days of net inflows, with $179.8 million added yesterday; BlackRock's ETHA contributed $146 million. But there's a problem—the ETF is buying heavily, yet BTC's price hasn't followed suit; instead, it has fallen back from above 81,000 to around 78,000. Incremental funds are entering, but sell orders are also flooding out simultaneously, resulting in intense competition around the 80,000 level. Liquidation data is also quite dramatic. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw $621 million liquidated, with $321 million on long positions and $300 million on short positions. The largest single liquidation occurred on Bitget, where a BTC position worth $103 million was liquidated. Both longs and shorts are being cleaned out, indicating significant market divergence. There's an on-chain signal worth noting. Whale Garrett Jin added 600 BTC against the trend when BTC dropped to around 79,000 $MU babala opened a short position again! MU entered short directly at 930!
A few days ago, I went long at 936, but today I opened a short at 930. It looks like it's oscillating back and forth, but the structure of the two trades is completely different.
At that time, MU's 930–950 was still an hourly-level support zone, and the price near support was suitable for trying a rebound; but recently MU has fallen steadily from 1036, with rebound highs continuously decreasing, first to 990, then pressured down to around 947. The original support has gradually started turning into resistance.
Trading is not about being in love with one direction; when the structure changes, my direction changes accordingly.
On Monday, MU opened sharply lower near 966, hit an intraday low of about 888, and finally closed at 910; on Tuesday, although there was a rebound with a high of 947, the close was only 933, failing to firmly hold 950–960. Today before the market opened, it fell back below 930 and is currently oscillating around 925.
So I opened a short at 930, not because I am bearish on Micron long-term, but betting that this rebound repair will fail and the price will retest 910 and 888.
From the hourly structure, MU is still in a downtrend phase after peaking at 1036. Yesterday's high near 947 can temporarily be seen as resistance for this rebound; as long as the price cannot firmly hold 947–950, the bearish structure remains intact.
✔ Entry position: 930
✔ First resistance: 936–947
✔ Strong resistance: 958–970
✔ First take profit: 915–910
✔ Second take profit: 900–888
✔ After breaking 888: continue to target 870–850
✔ Stop loss position: near 950
Entry at 930 with stop loss at 950 means a risk of about 20 points; if it ultimately falls to 870, the potential space is about 60 points, with a risk-reward ratio close to 1:3, fitting my trading logic.
The real acceleration signal for this short is when the price breaks below 924 and the rebound fails to recover; once 910 is lost again, the Monday low of 888 is very likely to be retested. If 888 cannot hold, it means this rebound is just a downtrend pause, and the next target will be 870 or even 850.
Of course, Micron's long-term fundamentals are not bad, with AI servers, HBM, and DRAM price increases still supporting storage demand. But in the short term, the market trades not on long-term stories but on capital realization, valuation pressure, and sector volatility around Nvidia's earnings.
Nvidia's earnings today are the biggest risk. If the results exceed expectations, the entire AI and semiconductor sector may rally collectively, so this trade must have a stop loss and absolutely no adding to shorts during an upward move.
If after the open MU recovers back above 936 and the hourly chart breaks above 947, I will admit this rebound is stronger than expected and stop loss to exit immediately.
But as long as 930 cannot be reclaimed, and 924 and 910 continue to fail, the bears still have room for another round of selling.
The same 930 level could be a long entry a few days ago and a short entry today.
Price has no stance; babala only stands on the profitable side! $ZRO experienced a sharp 20% surge in the short term due to ATLAS news, but the token's value capture durability is directly challenged by insufficient derivatives and RWA real trading volume.
After the news-driven 20% spot price increase, buying shifted from sentiment-driven to liquidity lock-up. The protocol's 75% fee buyback and burn mechanism combined with staking/Gas attributes directly tie the token's supply-demand structure to the trading volume of cryptocurrencies, perpetual contracts, and tokenized assets carried by ATLAS.
Scenario One (Bullish Projection): If the on-chain trading volume of perpetual contracts and RWA supported by ATLAS continues to expand, the spot buybacks formed by 75% of fees will gradually absorb the profit-taking pressure above the market.
This scenario triggers if the growth rate of actual on-chain transaction fees covers the release pace of early profit-taking. At this point, the increase in staked locked shares will further reduce circulating liquidity, boosting spot buying elasticity.
Scenario Two (Bearish Projection): If on-chain trading volume fails to effectively expand, the accumulated profit-taking from the 20% surge and the high-leverage long positions in derivatives will turn into net selling pressure.
This scenario triggers if the buyback and burn amount is far below market expectations, with capital flow shifting from net spot inflows to derivatives liquidation exits. If liquidity depth rapidly contracts, the price will retrace to the pre-announcement starting point.
The invalidation condition lies in whether staking rate and Gas consumption become decoupled. If $ZRO staking volume continues to increase but actual Gas consumption generated by the protocol lags, it indicates funds are only engaged in short-term speculation rather than real arbitrage, causing the rebound structure to fail.
In the next 7 days, key observations include the actual daily average capture of ATLAS on-chain derivatives and RWA trading fees, as well as changes in the ratio of $ZRO spot capital net inflows to derivatives open interest.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Before the opening of Jackson Hole this week, all eyes were actually fixed on one person—Kevin Walsh.
This guy took over as Fed Chair in May. At the July FOMC, the rate was held steady at 9:3, with three voters directly advocating a rate hike. After the meeting, he refused to provide a clear path, causing the market to have significant doubts about whether the Fed still values transparency. So at this Wyoming annual meeting, everyone is not just watching whether his tone is hawkish or dovish, but whether he can finally articulate the reaction function "data comes in → how the Fed moves" in plain language for the first time. If he can't, rate hike expectations will continue to drift in the fog, and stocks, bonds, and currencies will all wobble accordingly.
In the middle of this is the July PCE report released on Friday (August 26, US Eastern Time)—this is the Fed's most trusted inflation gauge. The market expects overall year-over-year inflation around 3.6%, with core inflation stuck near 3.3%. If the numbers explode, Walsh won’t be able to cover up a hawkish interpretation with his "art of ambiguity"; if the numbers soften, his "waiting for data" space will truly open up.
Looking at the BTC chart, it’s simple: the price is stuck oscillating between 78,000 and 80,000, unable to break above the upper boundary or truly break below the lower boundary. The weekly bounce from 62,000 to above 78,000 has already run through half the sentiment, and the remaining half depends on macro fuel—
• If Walsh gives some dovish signals (or if PCE stumbles first), holding above 78k and pushing to 80k–82k is the high-probability scenario;
• If he continues the "let the market hike for me" ambiguous philosophy, or if the PCE+CPI chain picks up again, a pullback to the 75k–76k support zone is the normal move.
Don’t get ahead of the rhythm. PCE will clear the way on Wednesday, Walsh speaks on the 28th, and NVDA earnings will also intervene in between. This is a typical "news on top of news" compressed consolidation. Betting direction early is like handing market makers your fees; wait for the shoe to drop, see which side leads volume, then decide whether to follow.
My big picture hasn’t changed: the bull market isn’t dead, but the driver has shifted from "narrative" to "liquidity pricing." Going forward, BTC will follow not how loud Walsh’s voice is, but what happens after his speech—how 2-year Treasury yields move, how the dollar index behaves, and whether real interest rates move down. If these three knobs are turned correctly, 80k is not the top; if turned the wrong way, even 78k won’t hold.
(This is just a casual rundown, not a trade call; leverage at your own risk.)
$BTC $ETH
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 It's completely messed up!
A harsh rule in the crypto world: negative news that crushes the market and creates blood-stained chips means the rally is just beginning 🤔
Looking back at some classic cases:
$ZEC was first placed in Binance's watchlist, delisted from multiple platforms, then relisted. After panic selling, it went on to achieve tens of times gains.
$AAVE faced cross-chain ETH bad debt risk, the market was full of bearish sentiment, but after hitting a deep bottom, it quickly reversed and rebounded.
$BONK encountered a voting attack event, causing panic selling of chips, and after a brief drop, it surged steadily.
$STX had a hard fork with 99% community support but was still put on Binance's watchlist, causing the price to drop sharply. Now it is strongly rebounding. Many predict that once the watchlist label is removed, a new rally may start.
There is a market strategy: quality projects first release negative news to create collective panic, wash out retail chips, let the main players acquire blood-stained chips, and then launch rallies of tenfold or even tens of times.
But be clear: not all negative news is a shakeout; many negative news are real failures.
The key to distinguishing is whether the project has a real narrative, continuous development, and community consensus. Purely relying on negative news to crush the market without fundamental support will lead to a bottomless abyss.
Negative news is not necessarily an opportunity; panic is the true test of human nature.
Do you think $STX can replicate the rallies of the previous coins after being removed from the watchlist? 👇
#ZEC spot ETF first day trading volume $14.8 million #Anthropic estimates a $30 trillion market, can the IPO narrative be fulfilled? #JaneStreet holds 5% of SanDisk.Bitcoin's two on-chain traffic indicators improved simultaneously in the second half of August: the realized market value relative change turned positive for the first time since late May, reaching +0.21%, in sync with Bitcoin's rebound from the August low to $79,100; the 30-day apparent demand has exceeded new issuance for six consecutive days. The direction has reversed, but the magnitude remains weak—the current capital inflow ranks in the lowest 3-4% among historical positive readings, and the apparent demand ranks in the lowest 10% among observations above 1. $BTC #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The change in direction is more important than demand intensity. This is an improvement but does not yet confirm a strong new state; the next step must be a sustained expansion in magnitude. If the two indicators cannot further expand, the sustainability of the current rebound remains in doubt. $BTR ’s 200%+ move looks less like a fundamental recovery and more like a liquidity event. The key risk is timing: a major unlock is scheduled for Aug 27, with roughly 19M tokens entering circulation. After a vertical pump, that supply can become heavy sell-side pressure. Weak on-chain activity, concentrated CEX liquidity, extreme turnover and shifting narratives make this a high-risk setup. I’d avoid chasing the breakout. If trading it, lower leverage and strict invalidation matter more than thCan altcoins really survive long-term? The market rumor that 99% of participants ultimately lose money is not alarmist.
Take $BICO as an example: its price dropped from a high of 22.8 U to a low of 0.011 U, a decline of over 99.9%. Even if the exchange hasn't delisted it and the market occasionally shows pulse-like rallies, it is essentially a typical pump-and-dump cycle orchestrated by manipulators. The manipulators use small rebounds to create an illusion of market recovery, attracting retail investors who are trying to bottom-fish or speculate on a rebound. Once retail funds enter, they dump the price again. This cycle can repeat multiple times. The speculative psychology of retail investors eager to make quick money is easily exploited by these schemes.
Looking at LAB, it experienced a full cycle from a hundredfold surge to a cliff-like crash. On-chain data shows that the vast majority of tokens are concentrated in project internal addresses, with extremely thin liquidity in the circulating supply, and the price is almost arbitrarily controlled by the manipulators. Many people wonder: is the current price the bottom?
Referring to BICO's trend, theoretically $LAB also has the possibility of falling to 0.01 U. Altcoins do not have an absolute bottom; what you see as an oversold price is just a temporary price point during the downtrend. Any deterioration in project fundamentals, token unlocks, large holder sell-offs, or market sentiment can trigger a new round of decline.
The vast majority of altcoins lack a stable, grounded business ecosystem; their value comes entirely from market speculation. After the speculation cycle ends, they enter a long-term downtrend, and occasional rebounds are just windows for manipulators to sell off.✅What does everyone think about this?
The US July PCE inflation data will be officially released tonight at 20:30 Beijing time. The market consensus expectations are:
Overall PCE YoY: expected 3.6%, previous value in June 3.7%, a slight decline
Core PCE YoY: market divergence between 3.2%~3.3%, previous value 3.3%
Core PCE MoM: expected about 0.18%, higher than June's 0.13%
BTC market forecast logic:
If Core PCE ≥ 3.3% (above expectations): inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, Fed rate hike expectations for September rise, US Treasury yields rise, USD strengthens, BTC faces short-term pressure and correction;
If Core PCE ≤ 3.2% (below expectations): inflation decline is more obvious, rate cut expectations rise, favorable for risk assets, BTC is relatively positive;
If exactly 3.3% meets expectations: market fluctuates and digests, impact is relatively limited.
Additional background:
There is no rate hike decision today; only this PCE data will directly affect the interest rate pricing at the Fed meeting on September 15, making it a key leading indicator for BTC's macro trend in the second half of the year.
⚠️The above is only a macro data expectation interpretation and does not constitute investment advice. Japan's Interest Rates Return to 1996 Levels: Arbitrage Liquidation Storm Approaches, Can the Bitcoin Decoupling Narrative Withstand the September Test?
The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision is approaching, and market expectations for another rate hike in September continue to rise. Japan's benchmark interest rate is gradually nearing its highest level since 1996. Alongside this, the global yen arbitrage trades worth trillions of dollars are once again overshadowed by the threat of forced liquidations.
Many investors are still debating whether Bitcoin has already decoupled from traditional finance, but I must remind everyone that in the face of the physical laws of liquidity withdrawal, no risk asset can remain unaffected.
The underlying operation of yen arbitrage trades involves large global funds borrowing cheap yen, leveraging to buy U.S. Treasuries, U.S. tech stocks, and even crypto assets. When the Federal Reserve prepares to cut rates while the Bank of Japan hikes rates in the opposite direction, the bidirectional narrowing of the U.S.-Japan interest rate spread will directly trigger yen appreciation. For macro hedge funds, a surge in borrowing costs immediately triggers market-wide deleveraging, and Bitcoin, which trades 24/7 with abundant liquidity, often becomes the first liquidity withdrawal machine that institutions sell off to realize cash.
In the short term, the so-called decoupling is more of an emotional bullish vision. As long as global liquidity contracts, Bitcoin will still be the first to bear valuation pressure. But over the longer term, central bank interventions and sovereign debt dilemmas are precisely the footnotes of fiat currency credit erosion. The deep pit caused by deleveraging is actually a golden window for long-term capital to accumulate hard assets. Geopolitical easing boosts risk appetite, BTC oscillates at high levels awaiting directional choice
Currently, BTC is oscillating around 78770 USDT, with the total crypto market capitalization at approximately 2.73 trillion USD.
On the macro front, expectations of renewed US-Iran talks have cooled geopolitical risk premiums, causing crude oil prices to fall nearly 2% to 80.47 USD/barrel. Inflation concerns have eased, supporting global risk assets. US stocks closed higher all day, crypto-related assets performed strongly, with Robinhood surging over 8%, indicating an overall warming of risk appetite.
From the perspective of contract liquidation pressure:
- Upper resistance: A large amount of short liquidation pressure is accumulated in the 80000‑81500 range. Once 80000 is effectively broken, it is very likely to trigger a short squeeze.
- Lower support: Dense long liquidation levels exist between 77000‑79000. If the price effectively breaks below the support near 78000, leveraged long positions may accelerate liquidation and exit.
The core battleground for short-term long-short competition is locked in the 78000‑79000 range. The breakout direction of this range will guide the short-term market trend. Coupled with major upcoming events this week such as Nvidia earnings, PCE inflation data, and the Jackson Hole symposium, market volatility is likely to increase significantly. Contract traders should strictly control leverage positions.Market Flash｜Western Digital Shareholder Note Conversion Transaction Completed
According to SEC public filings, Western Digital shareholders will carry out a note conversion operation:
Convert notes with a face value of **$191,000,000 into cash worth $192,700,000**.
Market Interpretation
1. This is a note redemption and conversion operation at the shareholder level, not a company issuance or buyback action. It is a debt realization by secondary market holders and will not directly change Western Digital's equity structure in the short term.
2. As a core storage hardware manufacturer, Western Digital's stock price movement is highly linked to the AI computing power industry chain, NAND Flash, and HDD chip cycles, and it is also an indirect upstream and downstream target in Nvidia's AI supply chain. This news is mainly a capital-level operation and has no substantial impact on the company's fundamentals or product shipments; it is more of a capital liquidity action.
3. Extended linkage: Storage sector stocks (SK Hynix, Micron), AI computing power-related assets, and computing power-related crypto tokens will only show market linkage when there are supply-demand or price changes in the storage industry. This note conversion news is unlikely to drive market movement and is considered a neutral event. Every time the market pulls back, there is always a voice that appears on time, like an old friend visiting, yet it always makes people uneasy—"Bitcoin is dead." This phrase has circulated in the crypto community for a full fifteen years but has never truly come to pass. 🌀 Looking back at past cycles, this narrative acts like a contrarian indicator. In 2011, Bitcoin was declared "dead" around $30, but then it rose to $1,000; in 2015, the price hovered around $200 with bearish voices rising, yet the market saw a peak of $20,000; in 2018, during the $3,300 winter, pessimism spread, but ultimately we witnessed the glory of $69,000; in 2022, the market struggled near $16,000, and the same words echoed again, after which the price reached $126,000. 📈 Each cycle starts at different points, with different prices and macro environments, but the shape of fear and the narrative framework are almost identical, like documents coming out of a copier. In 2026, when the price returns near $60,000, that familiar voice will appear again. This time, where will it go? No one can give a definite answer, but history at least reminds us that fear itself is often better at creating panic than the market. 😌 Interestingly, the current market pressure is not borne by Bitcoin alone. Oil price fluctuations caused by Iranian sanctions are affecting the pricing logic of global risk assets; discussions by the U.S. Treasury on Treasury repo operations are also stirring nerves around liquidity expectations. These macroThere is now a very clear difference in the understanding of macro compared to a few months ago.
I no longer share the market's pessimistic view on macro liquidity.
QT has ended, the Fed has resumed buying short-term debt to maintain ample reserves, and the Treasury is close to meeting the TGA target for the end of September.
Also, the oft-repeated point: M2 is still growing.
It has increased from 22.60 trillion in February 2026 to 23.22 trillion now, a $620 billion increase over 5 months, which does not align with typical liquidity scarcity.
The key is bank credit, which I believe is the best evidence of liquidity recovery.
Over the past year, bank credit has grown from 18.57 trillion to 19.80 trillion USD, a 6.6% increase; bank loans have grown from 12.98 trillion to 13.98 trillion USD, a 7.7% increase, with C&I business loans growing 10%.
Because when banks create loans, they are also creating deposits, which is equivalent to the private sector creating credit money.
Liquidity was relatively tight in August, mainly because TGA replenishment absorbed 180-200 billion in reserves, but the liquidity environment in September will be better, which may be one reason why BTC has been eager to move since this month.
#BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 $AAVE $UNI $HYPE #US expands sanctions on Iran, Strait navigation talks advance
The US has sanctioned again, and oil prices have dropped again. How many times has this script played out now?
The US announced an "unprecedented" economic blockade on Iran. Treasury Secretary Yellen said they aim to completely isolate Iran's economy, including crypto assets, technology, and gold in secondary sanctions. They are showing a posture to cut off all financial channels to Iran.
But what about oil prices? They have fallen for three consecutive days. Brent has already dropped below $89, and WTI is close to $81.
Why do oil prices fall after sanctions are implemented?
Simply put, the market doesn't believe this move can last. The key variable is that the Strait of Hormuz is loosening.
Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on a "temporary maritime corridor," starting with a temporary route, with talks on a permanent solution in 30 to 60 days. Trump has also softened his stance, saying the naval mines in the strait have been cleared, and the US is sending diplomats back to the Middle East. Both sides are looking for a way out.
Traders have named this trend "the peace that dares not be public is fermenting." Lots of thunder, little rain.
This script is really familiar—the last time, oil prices initially fell out of respect when sanctions were announced, then dropped further once the strait loosened, with a very similar pattern. This time the script is exactly the same: sanctions, oil price drop, strait talks, oil price continues to fall. How long did the last round of decline last? Anyway, it has started again this time.
Let's see how long this can last this time.🔍
$CL $BZ Brothers, $BICO finally showed some reaction today.
Just checked the data, BICO is currently around $0.02067, rebounding about 10% from last week's low of $0.018. Although this price is still more than 67% down from the early August high of $0.063, the fact that it has stopped falling and stabilized at this level at least indicates that the bears' selling pressure is weakening.
📊 What happened? Fundamentals are improving, and the price finally followed suit
The Q2 earnings report brought some solid good news.
The report released on August 18 shows BICO's gross margin surged from 44% year-over-year to 59%, adjusted EBITDA turned from a loss to a profit of 20 million SEK, with organic growth of 7%. CEO Maria Forss confirmed in the earnings call that desktop instruments and consumables sales are growing strongly, and the European and Asian markets are gradually recovering.
The stock price jumped 13% after the earnings release but quickly fell back. The market is skeptical that this improvement will last.
Where are the problems? Still those few issues:
Project-based automation business is still dragging. Large custom automation projects have long cycles and difficult deliveries, and North American academic funding remains under pressure. Management admitted in the Q2 call that North American sales declined, academic funding softened, and the sales cycle for large automation investments is still lengthening.
Cash flow has some issues. Although profitability turned positive, operating cash flow was negative 53 million SEK, mainly due to a 54 million SEK negative impact from changes in working capital. They still have 628 million SEK in cash on hand, so no immediate cash shortage, but the sustainability of cash flow needs attention.
CEO is changing. Maria Forss, who has been at the helm for years, is stepping down, and Chief Commercial Officer Anders Fogelberg will take over. Leadership changes always bring some short-term uncertainty.
💎 But the long-term logic remains: AI makes wet lab experiments more valuable
BICO's core narrative is still the same—AI speeds up the generation of drug candidates, but the automation demand for wet lab validation can't keep up. AI accelerates the production of more candidates, meaning more experiments, not fewer.
The company just signed a €50 million 10-year supply and licensing agreement, expecting to recognize about €10.6 million in revenue in Q3. The product line is also launching new items—G.PURE Gen 2 and dust-free AI cell culture evaluation features are gradually being implemented.
📉 Shareholding structure: This is the biggest problem
BICO fell from an ATH of $8 to $0.011, a 99.86% drop over four and a half years. The top 100 wallets control the vast majority of supply; pumping the price relies on these big holders working together, and dumping only requires them to click a mouse. The violent 430% rebound in early August was essentially a "short squeeze"—not driven by fundamentals but by leveraged panic selling.
Every "bottom fishing" from $0.063 down to $0.018 turned into "catching a falling knife." Until the big holders finish unloading and volume shrinks to a minimum, any rebound could just be a downtrend continuation.
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference only)
· Long: Wait for volume to recover above $0.022 before considering; catching a falling knife at 0.020 has a low success rate
· Short: Light short positions can be tried if the rebound at $0.022-$0.023 shows weakness, stop loss at $0.024, target $0.018-$0.019
· Safest: Wait for right-side stabilization signals—volume-supported stop in decline + low-volume sideways consolidation, confirm bottom structure before acting
· Leverage: This ticket has poor liquidity and may have large slippage, use limit orders
💰 Today's P&L: Still watching BICO, will talk after a real breakdown. Discuss in the comments, anyone trapped in BICO? At what cost? 👇
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC
Seeing last week's Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF assets surge by $23 billion, do you think institutions are frantically buying?
The reality might not involve that much new capital entering the market.
According to the latest data reported by Decrypt, out of this $23 billion AUM (Assets Under Management) increase, only $2.6 billion is actual "new money" inflow.
So where did the remaining $20+ billion come from? It's all due to the underlying coin price rising and the liquidation of short positions.
During $BTC's breakout of a key resistance level, about $4 billion worth of short positions were forcibly liquidated within two days. This "stampede buyback" caused by short-sellers cutting losses became the strongest fuel pushing prices higher.
Therefore, this rally is essentially a "revaluation of existing holdings + leveraged liquidations," rather than a systemic inflow of genuine external incremental funds.
Looking at a longer timeframe, so far this year, these two major ETFs still show a net outflow deficit of about $3.1 billion.
The single-day biggest capital inflow still comes from BlackRock's IBIT, with the oligopoly's bloodletting effect intensifying.
Relying on short-seller liquidations can indeed create short-term pump-and-dump, but for the market to truly stabilize and start a raging bull run, we must see sustained volume of net buying in the spot market channel. Main Capital
The total 24-hour market turnover is $1.49B, with BTC alone accounting for 32.4%, indicating that funds are still clustering in major coins for risk aversion.
The top 5 gainers have a combined turnover of $17.79M, accounting for 1.2% of the total market, clearly showing the proportion of smart money in offensive positions.
The top 5 losers have a combined turnover of $36.21M, accounting for 2.4% of the total market, with selling pressure concentrated in a few coins, not a full-scale retreat.
Top 3 smart money buys: $SD turnover $552,175 +13.46%, $ZRO turnover $11.98M +10.87%, $SNT turnover $938,490 +10.49%.
Top 3 smart money sells: $STORJ turnover $2.85M -23.69%, $KMNO turnover $883,567 -10.84%, $PEOPLE turnover $2.17M -9.20%.
Signal: Defensive turnover is more than 1.3 times the offensive turnover, with smart money favoring active selling; don’t catch a falling knife with your own money.
In short: Capital speaks most honestly, follow the direction of turnover, don’t imagine the market yourself.
Data source: OKX public spot market, for reference only, not investment advice.
That’s all, the rest depends on your own judgment. Above the 80,000 Threshold: Policy Catalysts and Short Squeeze Intertwine, Requiring Calm Assessment Amid the Frenzy
BTC has returned above $80,000 for the first time in a hundred days, with a weekly gain of up to 25%, driving ETH and altcoin sectors to strengthen broadly. Market discussions about a “crypto summer” are rapidly fermenting. However, beneath the lively market surface, there are clear divergences in the underlying logic of the trend, and it cannot be simply equated with the start of a new bull market.
This round of market surge stems from multiple favorable developments in the U.S. The White House held a special crypto meeting signaling policy friendliness, the SEC introduced new regulations on crypto asset financing, and the Treasury expanded U.S. debt repurchase operations, suppressing long-term Treasury yields. The marginal improvement in macro liquidity conditions and multiple narratives together ignited market bullish expectations.
However, it is important to see the true nature of the rally: a significant portion of this surge comes from short covering. Over $3.5 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with more than 90% being shorts, representing a typical short squeeze liquidation rather than relying entirely on new external capital inflows.
Capital and sentiment data show a dual nature. BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion in a single week, signaling a clear return of institutional funds; however, the Fear & Greed Index rapidly climbed to 74, approaching the extreme greed zone. Sentiment switched quickly from fear to frenzy, a phase historically accompanied by intense volatility.
The litmus test for the next phase of the market will be the sustainability after digesting the positive news. Key focus will be on whether ETF funds can maintain continuous inflows and how the market holds up after the short covering wave subsides.$2450 ETH, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: a violent rebound, retail investors shouting "back to the peak."
Up 30% in a week, surging from 1900 straight to 2530, the strongest weekly gain since May 2025. But the candlestick tells you: the daily RSI has reached 75 in the overbought zone, funding rate turned positive to an annualized 11%, and the long-short ratio is heavily skewed—this is not the start of a main upward wave, but a high-level digestion phase.
First thing: weak dollar + short squeeze, not a sudden fundamental bull shift.
On August 19, US Treasury repo expectations weakened the dollar, shorts got swept away. Weekly short liquidations jumped, single-day short liquidations exceeded 100 million—the price was "squeezed up" by derivatives, on-chain fees followed later.
Glamsterdam upgrade is scheduled for Q4 2026, Fusaka scaling story has long been realized. The protocol has no "immediate bullish bomb," the price rise reason is already priced in.
Second thing: institutions are buying, but you have to see how they buy.
BlackRock bought nearly $700 million ETH in one week, BitMine bought another 32,400 coins last week (about $81 million), holdings close to 5% of circulating supply, most already staked.
Institutions are "allocating," retail investors are "gambling."
Third thing: technically, it has reached a "long-short equilibrium point."
Above 2500-2550 is a dense area of weekly moving averages + this round's high, below 2415-2380 is the first support.
Daily RSI at 75 overbought, funding rate annualized 11%—longs are paying shorts. This is not the early stage of a trend, but a late-stage characteristic.
Only above 2550 can we talk about 2700-3000; breaking below 2380 means looking at 2300 or even 2220.
Long-short showdown, you decide.
On one side:
ETF net inflow nearly $700 million in one week, BlackRock main buyer
BitMine holdings close to 5% of circulating supply, real money accumulation
Staking rate 32%, circulating supply continuously locked
Weak dollar + rate cut expectations still fermenting mid-term
On the other side:
30% weekly rise, RSI 75 overbought, funding rate turned positive
Failed three times to break 2500-2550
New catalysts not until Q4, news vacuum period
Macro uncertainty before September FOMC
Resistance above: 2470-2485 → 2500-2550 (strong resistance) → 2700 → 2820 → 3000
Support below: 2415-2380 → 2300-2220 → 2000-2085 (major defense level)
Trading strategy (no nonsense)
Plan A: Buy the dip
Wait for 2380-2410 to show lower wick and volume bottoming before entering, stop loss if daily close breaks 2300, target 2470-2500 → 2530-2550. Reduce position at 2530, don’t be greedy.
Plan B: Breakout chase
Close above 2550 on 4H or higher timeframe, pullback not breaking 2500 before chasing, target 2700 → 2820 → 3000.
Plan C: Short at high levels
Small short positions on rejection between 2470-2530, stop loss above 2560, target 2450 → 2415 → 2380.
Position risk control:
Single trade risk no more than 1%-2% of total capital
Chasing longs at current price no more than 30% of normal position
Funding rate annualized 11%, overnight longs have cost
Deleverage before FOMC on September 15-16
What is ETH like now?
Like BTC in September 2021—
After a 30% weekly rise, everyone shouted "100k," but it consolidated sideways for two months before truly breaking out.
2450 is not a place to go all-in, it’s a test.
The test is whether you can control your impulse.
Wait for the dip, wait for the breakout, wait for certainty—this is ten thousand times more important than gambling on direction at this level.
Are you long or short at 2450?
How are you planning to trade this ETH wave?
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC at $79,000, are you chasing it? First, look at the surface: a barrage of positive news, shorts bleeding heavily. In the past 10 days, BTC surged from 64k to 81k, a 23% weekly increase, with record short liquidations. ETFs saw cumulative inflows of $2.7-3 billion in August, the Treasury is buying back long bonds to suppress the dollar, and Trump is pushing the CLARITY Act. The weekly chart just broke above the 50-week moving average, RSI is 80-88 overbought, the direction is right, but the price is frighteningly high. First thing: ETFs are buying, but buying momentum is slowing. Net inflow on August 24 was $338 million, then sharply dropped to $7.5 million on August 25. After 6-7 days of aggressive accumulation, it turned into "slowing down and watching." The same script: in March 2024, after continuous ETF inflows slowed down, BTC fell from 73k to 56k. In January 2025, the same rhythm, from 108k down to 89k. Second thing: the macro window is here, today through Friday is a "pressure chamber." Today (August 26) at 8:30 AM ET: July PCE + Q2 GDP revision. PCE expected core YoY 3.3% (steady), GDP second revision expected 1.5%. If data is soft: dollar falls, BTC pushes to 81,200 again. If data meets expectations: high-level consolidation, wait for Friday. If data is hot: the core logic of this rally—"fiscal easing + devaluation trade"—will be challenged, first hit targeting 76,500-77,000. Third thing: two conflicting signals appeared technically. Signal A: the trend is indeedHello everyone, I only share my own trading insights, records, and experiences, which do not constitute investment advice. Here is my judgment on the trends of crypto ETH, BTC, and US stocks over the next two months. The sell-off in June was a misjudgment of crypto as an interest-free asset, caused by the early pricing of hawkish signals released by Federal Reserve officials and Brainard. Currently, CPI is cooling down again, the war is easing, oil prices are cooling, and future CPI expectations are also cooling. The US Q2 GDP growth rate is 1.5; I now revise it down to 1.2 or 1.3. Economic growth is slowing, the Fed is not optimistic about upcoming employment data, and inflation risks are temporarily controllable. The Fed is shifting focus from inflation to employment data. The likely scenario is: companies hire less—recruitment decreases—labor loses motivation. I expect Brainard to release dovish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday or at the next FOMC meeting, which will create a loose monetary environment for crypto and the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq will continue to rise but with limited gains, currently at a high average P/E ratio of 41. For the Fed, once employment data cools and deteriorates rapidly, it is often hard to reverse, especially with GDP growth slowing again. My judgment for the September meeting is that Brainard will release dovish signals this week or at the September meeting. Either there will be a rate cut in September or December. A rate hike in September is only possible as a tit-for-tat move before the midterm elections, not impossible but unlikely. It will be either September or December. Due to limited space, I have condensed most of the content. If anyone knows how OKX posts long articles, please let me know.#IranSanctionsAndTalks a race between sanctions and diplomacy. If US pressure hits oil exports and payments first, crude could rebound, inflation could rise and dollar liquidity could tighten. If Qatar and Oman get talks moving first, oil and gold may lose their risk premium. BTC sits between both outcomes. Less geopolitical fear weakens the haven trade, but better liquidity helps risk assets. The market isn't just pricing peace or conflict. It's pricing which path reaches markets first.Data supports the price. Although #Bitcoin hit resistance and pulled back on Tuesday, the growth momentum of ETFs remains strong. On Tuesday this week, BTC ETF net inflows amounted to $314.3 million, slightly lower than Monday's net inflow data, but still within the regular range of $300-500 million net inflows. This means ETF buying has not shown a significant decline. However, it is worth noting that IBIT ETF net inflows increased again, accounting for 90.5% of the single-day net inflows. While this concentration in a single channel does not necessarily indicate risk, concentrated net inflow channels often imply a contraction in buying sentiment. Compared to Monday, when IBIT's net inflow share was only 61.9%, Tuesday's share increased significantly. Combined with BTC's pullback from the high, this abnormal data warrants caution.
Crypto market data: Comparing yesterday's market data differences
1. From a market share perspective, the #BTC consolidation phase has not triggered market worry or panic; ETH and altcoin shares remain stable.
2. Trading volume has declined. Facing tonight's macro data and uncertainties, the market has not chosen a direction yet and remains relatively cautious.
3. Total capital net inflow is $300 million, but mainstream funds USDT and USDC have not shown obvious net inflows; crypto market capital net inflows have paused.
Today's summary: $BTC #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 From the current data, crypto data has shown downside risks, such as declining trading volume and paused net inflows of mainstream funds, which is significant for the short term Gold at $4660, BTC hovering around $79,000 — the market is pricing in “rate hikes don’t work” Gold is at $4660, approaching a three-month high, up over 7% in a week. BTC is hovering near $79,000, after surging to $81,000 yesterday and then dropping back down. Under the same macro environment and the same rate hike expectations, two “non-interest-bearing assets” show vastly different trends. What is gold rising on? What is BTC waiting for? First, about gold. Are rate hike expectations still there? Yes. CME data shows a 67% chance of a rate hike in December, and a 64% chance of no change in September. But the market no longer believes it. It doesn’t believe rate hikes can solve inflation. It doesn’t believe the Fed’s hammer can smash through three walls — tariffs, oil prices, and AI investment. Gold is pricing in three narratives: First, inflation stickiness. PCE is still at 3.7%, with a target of 2%, nearly double the target. Inflation has been above target for over five years. Second, dollar credit erosion. U.S. public debt has surpassed $40 trillion. Richmond Fed President Barkin said: “There will be a reckoning, no one can tell you when.” Third, debt unsustainability. IMF Managing Director Georgieva put it bluntly: “All countries need to solve their fiscal problems.” JPMorgan predicts the average gold price in 2026 to be about $5243, possibly rising to $6000 by the end of the year. Gold is speaking through its price: rate hikes don’t scare me anymore. What about BTC? BTC’s “digital gold” narrative has been disproven too many times during liquidity tightening. 2#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
Core changes in the event
This ongoing capital raise does not immediately increase BTC holdings. The company's total USD liquidity has been pushed close to $6.7 billion, split into two pools: one part is specifically used to pay high dividends on preferred shares and repurchase discounted preferred shares, addressing rigid financial pressure; the other part, the USD-Cash pool, retains the option to buy Bitcoin opportunistically in the future, but no longer blindly going all-in on the coin price without raising funds.
The underlying logic has shifted from aggressively hoarding coins regardless of price to dynamic management balancing cash and BTC. Annual preferred share dividends are a huge rigid expense. If the company held only Bitcoin, a sharp price drop would cause a cash flow crisis, so now it prioritizes building a safety cushion.
Two possible future scenarios
Scenario 1: Restart buying after a pullback (optimistic)
If BTC experiences a clear retracement and market sentiment cools, this large idle cash on the books will be released to enter the market. Large spot buy orders will provide solid support to the market, helping stabilize and rebound the price.
Scenario 2: Holding cash for a long time without action (risk signal)
If the coin price continues to surge and Strategy remains inactive, it indicates management believes the current price is not cost-effective, and there is a lack of incremental institutional buying support. The sustainability of the high-level market is questionable and prone to a sharp pullback.In the past few days, after $BTC broke through $80K, market sentiment has clearly heated up again, but I actually think the most worth watching next is not how much BTC can still rise, but whether this money will continue to spread on-chain. The current path is actually very clear: BTC breaks through $80K → ETF funds flow back → institutional risk appetite recovers → BTC absorbs most of the funds first → ETH, SOL, XRP, HYPE, etc. start to take over → finally, it’s the turn of higher Beta altcoins. BTC has risen more than 20% in the past week, while the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $1.92 billion last week, indicating that this round of rise is at least not purely driven by retail investors and contract leverage. But now a very interesting change has appeared: BTC rises → ETH follows → SOL/HYPE and others start to perform → the market begins to look for the next batch of high Beta assets. For example, the cumulative net inflow of Solana-related ETFs has reached about $1.22 billion, indicating that funds are trying to spread from BTC to other large crypto assets. So what I’m most concerned about now is the “market breadth.” If only BTC rises and other coins don’t move, it looks more like funds are clustering around BTC. But if: BTC holds $80K ↓ ETH continues to strengthen ↓ SOL/HYPE/XRP and others continue to hit new highs ↓ DeFi, RWA, stablecoin-related projects start to expand ↓ small and mid-cap altcoins begin to catch up Then that’s the realKGeN in August focuses not on market trends but on a shift: from verifying traffic to providing traceable human data for robots and large models.
VeriFi Korea is scheduled for next week, with the theme directly being Human x Robots. A recurring judgment that week is: the next bottleneck is not computing power, but truly learnable, verified humans. @kgen_io
Product: three layers stacked together
POGE is the foundation. It’s not a one-time KYC but a continuously updated reputation: whether you are a real person, have ongoing participation, can perform tasks, have genuine consumption, and whether your social relationships hold up.
VeriFi outputs this reputation externally. Games, consumer applications, DeFi, AI labs don’t want just registration numbers, but a group of people who are very likely not farm accounts.
KAI is narrower and more expensive. It filters experts from tens of millions, doing RLHF, multilingual annotation, code evaluation, object detection, and complex reasoning, then delivers them to labs via Humyn Labs. The website’s statement is clearer than the white paper: it’s not more data, but better data.
In short: POGE proves who you are, VeriFi distributes people, and KAI turns some of them into training signals.
Numbers aligned in August
Growth is ongoing. On August 4, the official review of July: network strength 80M, user attributes 3.4 billion entries; protocol users on the official site reached about 80.53 million, higher than the often-cited 61.9 million in March. On the collection side, over the past six months there have been more than 130,000 independent contributors and over 550,000 hours. The Q3 roadmap also targets multilingual audio and video for the Middle East and Latin America, selling to cutting-edge labs and robot teams. @KGeN_CN
In business, the externally verifiable numbers remain those from March 2026: annualized revenue $85.8M, over 200 partners. The full-year target is $100M, with a longer-term goal of $150M by the end of 2027. AI data is described as the fastest-growing segment but early disclosures show it accounts for about 10% of the total. The platform’s profitability does not mean deflation is established.
The most glaring mismatch is here: the network and revenue are already substantial, but the market cap is still small. This doesn’t necessarily mean undervaluation; it could be the market questioning—what is the quality of revenue, how much flows to the token, and when will AI orders move from a supporting role to the main act.
What exactly is it solving
Text data online is running low, synthetic data feeding models makes them more like models, and crowdsourcing increasingly involves “human annotation” that is actually humans using AI to get by. AI lacks not data volume but three things simultaneously: traceable sources, quality that compounds, and distribution close enough to the real world.
KGeN’s approach is to first gather real people in the Global South through tasks and clans, then use biometrics, social binding, and behavioral footprints to squeeze out fakes, finally selling time as voice, first-person video, and expert evaluations. Labor no longer disappears after completion but accumulates into reputation for the next selection.
This is more worth watching than the four words “AI + token”: people in the Global South shift from being data collection targets to production factors on the ledger.
Possible future fields
August’s actions have already fixed the direction: humanoid robots and Physical AI, multilingual voice, enterprise-level evaluation. Gaming and consumer acquisition won’t stop—that’s the current cash cow. Further downstream is expanding storefronts and credentials to model usage rights, moving from selling people to selling results.
Risks are also clear. 80 million network strength does not equal datasets labs are willing to renew. The hours look good, but density, consistency, and actual inclusion in training clusters must be considered. If AI revenue doesn’t pick up, KGeN 2.0 is just a mechanism, not a market cap logic.
Next, focus on three things: whether there are new lab contracts, whether collection shifts from “how many hours recorded” to “used by models,” and whether buyback and burn can be seen monthly on-chain.
If intelligence becomes cheaper, scarcity will no longer be models but trustworthy human signals. August confirms a shift, not a climax. While everyone is waiting for Fed Chair "Powell to give the answer," maybe the answer no longer matters. Friday, Jackson Hole. The whole world is waiting for Fed Chair Powell to speak—hawkish or dovish? Will there be a rate hike? But honestly, this question itself may already be outdated. The market anxiously waits for one person to provide the "answer." But the real answer has long since left his speech. Here are some facts that have already happened. First, the American people can no longer hold on. The August consumer confidence index dropped to 89.4, the lowest in seven months. The consumer expectations index for the next six months collapsed by 5.8 points, down to 68.2—the lowest since January this year. July retail sales saw the largest drop in over a year. In July, employers cut a net 23,000 jobs, and the Labor Department revised May and June employment data down by 103,000. Inflation has been above target for more than five years. Five years. Wages have not kept up with prices, credit cards are maxed out, and savings are depleted. The Fed is struggling with "whether to raise rates"—but the people's wallets have already made the decision for it: I have no money left, so don't raise rates anymore. Second, the market has already "raised rates" for the Fed. On August 18, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.334%, the highest since 2007. What does "the market has done the tightening itself" mean? It means the Fed hasn't acted yet, but the bond market has already pushed borrowing costs up. The Fed's rate has stayed unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%—but the 30-year Treasury yield is already at 5.3%. The Fed hasn't raised rates, but the market is doing it for them."TRUMP-Linked Address Withdraws 3.39 Million USDC Without a Trace: Unilateral Market Making Pump and Order Book Depth"
No single large bearish candle can be found on the K-line, yet the core TRUMP-linked address BDNBtN...9eUo swiftly withdrew 3.39 million USDC in cold hard cash from the Solana chain within just 10 hours.
This address never once clicked market swap; instead, it unilaterally placed tokens in the Meteora DLMM limit order pool. Whenever external buyers pushed prices up, the high-position contracts automatically converted to stablecoins, which were then directly withdrawn and transferred to Coinbase.
Several other linked wallets simultaneously recharged 2.62 million tokens to OKX for dual-track portfolio adjustment. This unilateral market making completely drained USDC from the pool, halving the bid-ask spread thickness, and the real order book liquidity shrank to one-third of what it was before the price rally. $SOL Battle at the 80,000 mark between bulls and bears! What’s next for BTC?
BTC has climbed back above $80,000 for the first time in three months, surging over 23% in a single week, marking the strongest weekly performance in nearly three years. However, after the rally, it quickly retreated to around $79,000. Whether it can hold above the $80,000 level has become the biggest concern for everyone.
Conclusion first: It’s difficult to hold above $80,000 unilaterally in the short term, but it’s highly likely to rise in the medium term.
This round of gains is driven by four combined forces: falling U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar improving macro liquidity; rising expectations of friendly U.S. crypto regulation; spot ETF net inflows of $1.92 billion in one week, with significant institutional capital returning; concentrated short liquidations and passive buying pushing a short squeeze.
The problem is that the momentum from short liquidations has already weakened, there is heavy profit-taking pressure above $80,000, and the fear and greed index has entered an extreme greed zone, making short-term volatility and consolidation inevitable.
The real decisive level is $81,000. A daily close above this level would be a valid breakout, opening the door to $90,000+ territory; otherwise, $80,000 will remain a strong resistance with repeated back-and-forth movements. The first support below is at $76,700, with strong support at $74,000; breaking below that would mean a return to the $70,000 range consolidation.
Whether $80,000 can hold in the medium term depends on two key factors:
• Whether spot ETF inflows continue, which forms the market’s foundation
• The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy pace; as long as expectations for loose liquidity remain intact, the overall direction remains unchanged
The post-halving supply contraction cycle is still ongoing, and the medium- to long-term upward foundation remains. But crypto assets are highly volatile, and high-level consolidation is normal; there is no scenario of only rising without falling. #BTC 8 月 26 日，据TradingBeats监测显示，未来24小时内，约95.44万枚HYPE将结束7天质押提现等待期并转入现货账户，按当前价格计算价值约7809.4万美元。目前全网仍有约322.52万枚HYPE处于提现队列，价值约2.64亿美元 根据Hyperliquid官方规则，HYPE从质押余额转回现货账户需等待7天。未来24小时内，到账规模最大的三个地址合计将接收约67.69万枚HYPE，价值约5538.2万美元，占同期到账量约70.9% 其中：- 0x0f99：约30.07万枚HYPE将于明日凌晨到账，价值约2459.8万美元，其当前质押余额已基本清空； - 0x393d：约20.65万枚HYPE将于明日中午到账，价值约1689.9万美元 该地址为Kinetiq StakingManager，此次资金流动更接近协议赎回及流动性管理； - 0x82b0：约16.97万枚HYPE将于明日下午到账，价值约1388.5万美元，其质押余额同样已归零 因此，未来24小时约7800万美元的到账规模中，并不能全部直接视为潜在卖压。协议地址占据其中一部分，而0x0f99与0x82b0在解除质