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Maji's account under pressure again: High-leverage ETH long positions still holding
Huang Licheng's trading account has shrunk again. Once tracked on-chain as a "whale" position, it now looks more like a small fish struggling in rough waters.
According to the currently disclosed data, his account has accumulated losses of 36.8643 million USD; in the past 24 hours, it lost another 204,000 USD, and in the last 7 days, losses reached 1.404 million USD. The loss figures keep accumulating, but he has not chosen to exit and continues to hold the existing positions.
Current holdings show he still holds 1,025 ETH long positions, with a position value of about 2.4544 million USD, leveraged 25x full margin, entry price at 2,381.25 USD, unrealized profit of about 13,600 USD, liquidation price at 2,342.31 USD, and available margin at 0 USD.
What is most noteworthy is not the temporary unrealized profit on this ETH long position, but that the account's accumulated losses have nearly reached 37 million USD while the available margin shows zero. This means that any slight market pullback will put significant pressure on the account.
My view is that the biggest fear in high-leverage trading is not short-term volatility, but long-term misjudgment combined with a lack of position buffer. Even though the ETH long position currently shows a slight unrealized profit, the liquidation price is not far from the current price, so any market fluctuation will quickly amplify the risk.
Maji's journey—from whale to small fish, and now to a tiny shrimp—actually serves as a warning to all high-leverage traders.Spot funds have not returned yet, how far can the rebound go?
Recently, I have been paying attention not only to the prices of $BTC, Ethereum, and SOL, but also to whether the funds behind them have re-entered the market. According to the latest released data, the market is not very optimistic for now.
As of October 16, the $BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net outflow of about $82.4 million, with a cumulative outflow of about $228 million over the past week. The situation for $ETH is even weaker, with a weekly net outflow of about $320 million, indicating that institutional demand for ETH allocation remains insufficient. For $SOL, there has also been a continuous outflow recently, with a cumulative outflow of about $50.5 million from October 5 to 16.
We cannot just look at price rebounds and assume the market has reversed. $BTC has a relative advantage in fund size, ETH needs to be observed to see if ETF outflows can narrow, and SOL needs to watch when the funds will stop the continuous withdrawal.
Next, the key signals to watch are: whether spot ETFs can have continuous net inflows; whether trading volume keeps up when prices rise; and whether key supports can hold during pullbacks.
If prices rise but funds continue to flow out, this kind of rebound should be viewed cautiously; if funds return and trading volume expands, the market has a better chance to sustain a trend. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #机构资金持续流出，BTC能否企稳？ After 6 consecutive days of outflows, the ETF finally saw a slight inflow, but BTC is still hovering around 81,000: is this a rotation or a hard hold?
BTC is holding above $81,600, with a 24-hour range of 80,814–82,816, and the key 80,000 level remains unbroken.
The US spot BTC ETF had net outflows for 6 consecutive days before, but the latest period turned to a net inflow of $5.06 million, with BlackRock IBIT seeing a net inflow of $16.79 million.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $310 million, with 78,000 people liquidated; the Fear and Greed Index is 49, neutral.
I think the price only softened by 2.5% after 6 days of outflows, indicating that the buying pressure below 80,000 is real.
This slight inflow looks more like institutions repricing around 80,000 rather than a sentiment reversal.
I’m watching two levels myself: above 81,875, a rebound would look decent; if it closes below 80,552, the battle to defend 80,000 begins.
The above is just my personal observation and does not constitute any investment advice.
Do you think institutions are quietly rotating and building positions around 80,000, or are retail investors catching the falling knife?
$BTC $ETH $XRP
#Bitcoin #BTCETF Bank of America's sell signal has ended. The buy signal threshold is 2 points, currently at 7.4 points.
The bull-bear indicator dropped from 8.1 to 7.4, breaking below 8.0, closing the sell signal issued on May 26.
The rule is to sell above 8 and buy below 2. 7.4 only counts as a retreat to slightly bullish.
Hartnett himself has not turned bullish. Two prerequisites: continued rate hikes by the end of October, and easing concerns about AI financing.
The rate hike bet has dropped from 50% to 15%, the first prerequisite is moving in the opposite direction.
The crack is in positioning. Private clients' stock allocation is a record high at 66.4%, cash at a historic low of 9.3%.
Tech stocks are overweight at the highest level since August 2020, with tech funds seeing an annualized inflow of $196 billion this year.
Sentiment has dropped first, but positioning hasn't moved. No one is forced to sell, and no one dares to add.
I think reading this as the worst is over is wrong. 7.4 is not the bottom, it's a stalemate.
What will break the stalemate is not chip price increases, but free cash flow.
Cloud providers' capital expenditure is $807 billion in 2026 and $1.16 trillion in 2027, free cash flow is -$63 billion this year and -$163 billion next year.
Chip price increases can save revenue but can't fill this hole. Real interest rates are already close to 3%.
$QQQ fell from 751.27 to 709.80, down 5.5% in a week.
Invalidation condition: reclaiming 751.27 nullifies it; breaking below 707.23 marks the start of liquidation.
Which side are you betting on: a tech stock rebound by mid-November, or a breakdown first?
$QQQ $SMH $TLT
#BankOfAmericaBullBearIndicator$BTC Good news, someone is here to pump us up! The Global Macro Director at Fidelity says a new bull market for Bitcoin is coming, so let's buckle up! I actually agree with his view, since being above the yearly line means long-term bulls have the advantage. But there's a problem now: if it drops to 77,800 in the short term, it will trigger a collective liquidation of $700 million long positions! With such a big chunk of meat on the table, the bears would be embarrassed not to take a bite. Given $BTC's current constipated movement, it’s very likely to break below 80,000. Whether it will go even lower is hard to say. Looking at the capital flow, there has been a net outflow these past few days. So while everyone is optimistic about the long-term trend, don't forget the short-term trend is still downward!$BTC 🔥 Bitcoin and Ethereum are simultaneously standing on the "pressure test platform" at critical price levels. Since October, $BTC has tested the $81,000 level three times, while $ETH has repeatedly tested the $2,350 support, showing a typical tug-of-war pattern.
Macroeconomic pressure is the direct driver behind these repeated tests. After the US September CPI exceeded expectations, the market's pricing of the Fed's October rate hike probability jumped from 22% to 53.7%, US Treasury yields approached a 24-year high, and risk assets overall came under pressure. The on-chain loss scale corresponding to Bitcoin's three dips shows a decreasing trend, closer to a gradual clearing of swing chips rather than a full panic sell-off. However, structural issues are also clear: Glassnode points out that liquidity from new buy orders below $80,000 is weakening, and if the key range is effectively broken, the price may accelerate down to the "real market average price" of $78,000.
For Ethereum, $2,350 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Holding this level maintains range-bound oscillation; if a volume-driven break below occurs, the $2,323 low will be directly exposed. The common feature of both markets currently is that repeated testing of key levels itself consumes defensive strength, and directional choices are often made at moments of weakest liquidity.The report of two supertankers striking mines in Hormuz is serious, but the missing independent confirmation matters: a market already facing Kpler's estimate of flows 43% below pre-conflict levels can reprice risk faster than facts arrive.
Brent's 3.7% rise to $109.86 shows that vulnerability is being priced in. A conditional transit proposal may help, yet without a US deal, the shipping outlook remains unresolved.
#HormuzMineThreat About 367,500 ETH, Bitfinex margin longs have reached approximately $889 million.
Market stats: Bitfinex traders hold about 367,500 ETH in margin longs, equivalent to $889 million, the highest since August 2022. Most positions were accumulated after October 6, when ETH was around 2560; at the time of writing, ETH is about 2415 on OKX, BTC about 81784. Compared to similar positions in 2022, the price first dropped about 33% below the entry point before turning green, which took about six weeks.
I noticed a detail: from around 2560 down to about 2415, this batch of longs has just started to show unrealized losses—still far from the 33% drawdown seen back then.
Do you think this roughly $889 million long position will hold first, or get liquidated in a squeeze?
Dozens of hard news items daily, stay informed and don't get lost.
$ETH When that bearish candle on ETH slammed down, 2400 was not support at all, just a concentrated stop-loss zone.
In the one hour after midnight, Binance + Bybit + OKX liquidated a total of $27.02 million long positions, while shorts only liquidated a few hundred thousand. The price slid from 2424 all the way down to 2355, without even a decent rebound in between.
BTC didn’t escape either, dropping to 81000, with over $115 million long liquidations within 60 minutes. Liquidity is thin on weekends, and with high leverage surging, the market feels as fragile as paper.
What’s worse for sentiment is the ETF side:
ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $1.4 billion in a single week, breaking both the 7-day and 30-day moving averages, turning the technical outlook bearish.
On-chain, 3–10 year old addresses are offloading, at the fastest pace since 2021.
On the macro side, CPI at 3.7% exceeded expectations, 10Y US Treasury yields surged to 5.26%, money is expensive, and assets that don’t generate cash flow are the first to get hit.
But here’s the interesting part:
In these days of decline, large addresses are accumulating in the opposite direction, with several whales’ cumulative purchases surpassing the $1 billion level.
The liquidation chart is now split:
- If ETH breaks below 2392 again, there’s still $475 million in long liquidations waiting below;
- On the upside, short liquidations around 2618 total about $466 million, but that’s for later.
I’m not advising to bottom-fish—weekend leverage flushes never make sense, they only care about margin.价格已经破底，多头仓位却还在加码——这张周末盘面把散户的“天真与余钱”暴露得一览无余。睡前扫一眼数据，$WLD 和 $HYPE 的持仓结构尤其刺眼：不是恐慌离场，而是越跌越买。 最典型的是 $WLD，现价 0.4992，跌破前低后散户不但没跑，多空比反而冲到 2.24。所有人把 0.5 当成铁底，拼命往里填钱。但看资金费率，时不时翻负——多头甚至倒贴利息在扛单。这种靠信念硬撑的仓位结构，0.5 大概率还要再破一次。真正的底部从不靠“大家都觉得是底”来确认，而是靠这批不肯认输的多头被清出去。 再看 $HYPE，现价 79.1，80 关口失守，多空比 2.07，但关键信号在持仓量：从 1.09 亿降到 1.04 亿。这个组合太熟悉了——主力在撤，散户多头在原地坚守。上方全是套牢盘，反弹毫无力度，这种阴跌最消耗人。持仓量下降叠加价格走弱，说明推动下一波行情的资金正在离场，而不是在蓄力。 $ZEC 则是另一种陷阱。现价 1159，多空比 0.99，看似平衡，但日线已从 1695 一路下来，大方向仍是向下，资金没进场。当前的反弹更像诱多，而不是反转。平衡的多空比在下跌趋势里不是中性信号，而是“没📉 $SOL Ecosystem Keeps Growing, but Price Action Tells a Different Story Solana continues to generate ecosystem headlines, yet its token price remains stuck near the bottom of its 30-day trading range. The disconnect between ecosystem activity and market performance is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. 1️⃣ Capital Flows: A Key Support Has Weakened $SOL ETF products have reportedly ended a 14-week streak of consecutive net inflows. Institutional demand had been one of $SOL more consisIs the AI market starting to cool down collectively?
This time, what the market might be killing is not performance, but expectations 📉
The recent decline in the US stock chip sector is hard to explain by "bad news from a single company."
Intel down, AMD down, SanDisk down, Micron down, even the entire semiconductor index is under continuous pressure.
What’s more notable is that this round of decline did not start solely in the US; South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix showed obvious selling pressure first, which then quickly spread to markets in Japan, the US, and others. By this week, the chip sector has seen over a trillion dollars in market value evaporate, and the market is beginning to reassess the valuation and sustainability of the entire AI trade. Business Insider
So now I prefer to understand this market move in one sentence:
It’s not that AI demand suddenly disappeared, but that the market is finally starting to seriously calculate—how much is such a huge AI investment really worth?
//
► The first cut is to "valuation"
Over the past year, the AI industry chain’s upward logic was actually very straightforward:
AI demand growth
→ Cloud providers increase capital expenditure
→ Data center expansion
→ GPU, CPU, HBM, storage, optical modules all benefit
→ The market continuously assigns higher valuations
The problem is, after the stock price rises to a certain level, the market no longer only looks at:
"How much can be earned this year?"
But rather:
"How much can you grow in the next couple of years?"
When the market starts to doubt whether AI capital expenditure can maintain its current pace, valuations naturally need to be recalculated.On the day of the flying car launch event, TSLA fell 1.3% against the market trend, while the Nasdaq rose 1.25%.
On October 15, Tesla unveiled the new Roadster at SpaceX's Texas test site: the prototype car hangs upside down by suction cups, ignites 10 compressed air thrusters, and performs aerial rolls before landing (reported by CBS/TechCrunch).
The official claim is 0-60 mph in 0.81 seconds—no independent verification; Tesla's own website states: the "Flying" Rocket version "is not approved for use on public roads."
Deposit: $50,000 for the Performance version, $250,000 for the Thrust version. The first round of deposits was taken at the 2017 debut, promising delivery in 2020; nine years later, not a single car has been delivered, range has shrunk from 620 miles to 300 miles, and delivery is postponed to "2028."
My judgment: this is a real engineering show, but the stock price answers a different question—the Q3 earnings report will be released after market close on October 21, with expected EPS down 12% year-over-year. Stunts can't fix gross margins.
No action before the earnings report; watch the automotive gross margin. If the earnings report shows a better-than-expected margin rebound, or Tesla announces clear pricing + mass production schedule and accepts independent testing, this judgment will be void.
Which explanation do you find more credible: a prelude to a real technological breakthrough, or another "deposit-taking show"?
$TSLA
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 Woke up to find SanDisk, Micron, and Hynix still crashing—why doesn't the weekend stop?
But then I think, there's nothing to do about it.
This wave of storage stocks continuing to fall, the core reason is the inflation shadow from high oil prices we talked about yesterday.
Semiconductors and storage are high-valuation tech stocks, most sensitive to interest rate expectations. When interest rate expectations rise, valuations drop directly; HBM and memory are the first to be cut.
Besides the main inflation theme, the storage sector itself has internal negatives:
1. Hedge funds and retail traders are crowded into the AI storage track. Once bad news appears, they collectively reduce positions or avoid closing positions, causing a self-reinforcing sell-off during declines. That's why Micron, SanDisk, and Hynix are the hardest hit.
2. The market is now focused on future profitability, capacity, and computing power, rather than rushing to buy low-priced chips. This also signals the peak of the storage upcycle, which I call a rational return—starting to look at financial reports, costs, and gains and losses.
The ongoing crash in storage stocks essentially means the market hasn't fully believed that oil prices will fall.
Although oil prices have eased from the 100 mark, most remain uncertain and cautious.
As long as oil prices don't clearly drop near 95, inflation worries persist, U.S. Treasury yields won't come down, and storage and semiconductors will struggle to stabilize.
Unless crude oil truly pulls back to 95, this storage decline will be hard to end.
Unless crude oil truly falls to 90, the next storage rally will be hard to start.
Actually, I think SNDK, Hynix, and Micron have almost tested the bottom enough. Gradually trying small long positions can be attempted. The $99 short on crude oil will definitely yield a result There is a contradictory phenomenon in the Bitcoin market right now.
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $228 million.
Nasdaq tech stocks are also under pressure.
But many in the crypto community are still concerned about:
Can $80,000 be the bottom?
When will the next bullish candle appear?
Should we open contracts to bet on a rebound?
I think people might have the order wrong.
What’s really worth studying is not how much Bitcoin has fallen, but why. #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
SpaceX's 18,712 Bitcoins: The Quietest Line in the Financial Report, the One the Crypto Community Should Watch Most
SpaceX's prospectus reveals holding 18,712 BTC, with a cost basis of about $661 million, and a fair value of approximately $1.29 billion at the end of Q1, below the $1.64 billion projected for the end of 2025. This means that in the Q2 financial report, the Bitcoin position likely contributed a fair value change gain or loss, but the amount is negligible compared to the $7.8 billion revenue. However, for the crypto market, the signal significance of this event far outweighs its financial impact: a $2 trillion market cap company placing Bitcoin on its balance sheet and not reducing its holdings in Q2 is itself a silent endorsement. Even more noteworthy is the existence of tokenized SpaceX stock (rSPAX). When traditional equity enters the blockchain in token form, SpaceX's earnings day simultaneously becomes a liquidity event for the crypto market—if earnings beat expectations, tokenized stock absorbs stablecoins; if earnings disappoint, funds flow back into BTC and ETH. SpaceX's Bitcoin holdings won't drive the market up, but its earnings volatility will become a new variable in the marginal liquidity of the crypto market. Last night $SNDK, $MU, and other US stock storage perpetual contracts flash crashed!
At 5:22 AM Beijing time, the contracts of both almost simultaneously faced concentrated sell-offs, plunging over 6% in a short time, then quickly rebounding.
Trading records disclosed by the CEO of Tread.fi reveal even more noteworthy details:
Binance was the first to show massive active sell orders, followed by multiple addresses on Hyperliquid simultaneously opening shorts, then leveraged liquidations further amplified the decline.
Active selling → liquidity drying up → cross-market transmission → chain liquidations
The entire stampede process completed within minutes;
More critically, it was the weekend, US stock spot markets were closed, but perpetual contracts were still trading, lacking spot arbitrage funds to promptly correct price deviations.
As for whether the multiple addresses simultaneously opening shorts was a collective response of quantitative strategies or intentional, there is currently no sufficient evidence 🤔
But this flash crash at least shows one thing: a 7×24 hour trading mechanism does not mean there is sufficient liquidity 7×24 hours.
Without spot price anchoring on weekends, the pricing power of US stock perpetual contracts can easily be swayed by concentrated order flow in a short time.
#纳指100周跌5.5%，芯片股八连跌 @OKX星球 Bitcoin $BTC is currently around $81,761, up only 0.37% in the past 24 hours, with a volatility of 1.32%, which is only half of the 7-day average volatility, and it is positioned at about 41% from the bottom within the recent 7-day high-low range. Ethereum $ETH is around $2,415, down 0.25% in 24 hours, down 4.07% over 7 days, positioned lower at only 35.5%. This narrowing volatility and price stuck in the lower-middle range reflect that the market has not formed a new direction, with both bulls and bears waiting for stronger signals.
Looking at the capital side, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $228 million in the past week, and $618 million outflow since the beginning of the month, indicating institutional funds are still withdrawing. ETF inflows and outflows can be understood as channels for institutions to buy and sell Bitcoin; continuous outflows mean these professional buyers are reducing exposure, removing an important buying force from the market. Meanwhile, the total open interest in the futures market only dropped 0.95%, the 24-hour liquidation amount decreased by 6.73%, and the funding rate is so low it can almost be ignored, indicating leverage is not crowded, no large-scale forced liquidations occurred, so price fluctuations are naturally small.
Ethereum is weaker than Bitcoin, partly related to expectations of stablecoin liquidity. Circle's report mentioned that the total market cap of stablecoins failed to break $310 billion, and DeFi locked volume dropped by over $6 billion this month, raising concerns about tightening liquidity in the market. $SOL
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 The whole network is shouting to short, with the short ratio soaring directly to 70%, but today I have to pour a bucket of cold water on those blindly following the crowd to short.
Retail investors are now all crowded into short positions celebrating, thinking they've caught the wealth code.
Think about it logically, the manipulator worked so hard to smash ZEC from 1697 to 1141, was it to bring common prosperity to you all?
Absolutely not.
When everyone thinks it will keep falling, that's often when the manipulator is preparing to reverse and harvest.
Look at the latest news today, ZEC is not only facing continuous outflows from ETF funds but is also embroiled in a messy money laundering investigation.
Fundamentals are rumbling with thunder, big off-exchange funds are fleeing, and no fresh capital is coming in.
Inside the market, it's just a bunch of retail investors digging into each other's pockets. This kind of extreme zero-sum game is most likely to lead to a brutal long-short squeeze.
Technically, the MA20 at 1165 above is like Mount Tai pressing down, the rebound can't even touch it, and the overall trend is indeed downward.
But at 1141, a position neither here nor there, if you rush in to short directly, once the manipulator wants to clear high-leverage floating positions,
suddenly pulling a piercing arrow through the clouds, your position will be liquidated instantly, and then they continue to smash the market, leaving you nowhere to cry.
True hunters never strike at such emotionally extreme and awkward positions.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#纳指100周跌5.5%，芯片股八连跌 How should the crypto market respond after the Federal Reserve's speech?
Macro background:
On October 16, Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered a speech without providing clear guidance on future interest rate decisions, leaving the possibility of a rate hike in October uncertain. Meanwhile, officials like Daly and Goolsbee expressed cautious attitudes toward an immediate rate hike.
As data is released, the market's bet on a 25 basis point rate hike in October has dropped to about 15%. However, there is no consensus on the timing of subsequent hikes within the year, and significant divergence remains.
Price action analysis for various coins:
$BTC: In theory, high inflation suppresses risk markets, but since the short-term probability of a rate hike has been significantly lowered, Bitcoin is currently in a volatile and oscillating pattern. The next direction depends on further statements from Federal Reserve officials.
$ETH: Its movement closely follows the broader market but with higher elasticity. Any slight change in rate expectations will have an amplified effect on ETH, increasing volatility.
$SOL: Classified as a highly elastic asset. If rate hike expectations heat up again, SOL will face the most obvious correction pressure; conversely, if liquidity easing expectations rise, its upward explosive power will be the strongest.
💡 Core interpretation:
The current market is caught between "hard data leaning bearish" and "officials leaning dovish," which has somewhat eased panic sentiment. In short, inflation remains hot but short-term rate hikes are unlikely, and the market has entered a wait-and-see period. BTC, ETH, and SOL are expected to maintain wide-ranging oscillations while awaiting more macro guidance. It is important to be cautious that if inflation continues to rise, the risk of rate hikes within the year will return.[Regarding a top trader's "bottom has appeared" theory, my perspective]
Recently, a top trader claimed "BTC 79,000 is the bottom for this cycle," reasoning that "institutions are accumulating + ETF funds are flowing back." Let me break it down: the first part "institutional accumulation" lacks on-chain data support (whale address activity is flat), while the second part "ETF inflow" has shown signs recently, but daily inflow and outflow fluctuate greatly and cannot be linearly extrapolated.
My view: 79,700 was the low on 10/15, indeed showing a volume-increased lower shadow (a probing signal), but "bottom" and "low point" are two different things. A bottom requires structural confirmation—at least a second test without a new low plus a volume breakout above key resistance. Currently, only half of the first condition is met. More observation and confirmation are needed, not prediction.#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
Sector: The narrative is in “proxy finance,” but cash flow is not part of the narrative
Citrini Research’s core judgment deserves serious attention: AI agents and tokenized assets are pulling crypto investment back from “betting on coin prices” to “betting on cash flow.” Capital may shift from BTC, ETH, XRP to infrastructure and DeFi protocols that generate fees. However, at the same time, live feedback from TOKEN2049 Singapore provides a key correction: the certainty of AI×Crypto lies in computing power, not in Agent Tokens; there is significant divergence at the narrative level, but cash flow is highly concentrated in AIDC (AI Data Centers), with mining companies’ capital expenditures on AI computing power transformation being several times that of traditional mining. Putting these two points together, the conclusion is clear: the market is shifting from “buying narratives” to “buying income,” but most Agent Tokens still have no income, while computing power already has a clear capitalization path. The focus of RWA is also shifting—from U.S. Treasury bonds to stocks, with hedging and financing commercializing before “on-chain mapping.” This means the next phase of excess returns may not be about “whose story is bigger,” but about “whose protocol fees actually flow into the treasury.” Netflix's earnings report hasn't been released yet, but I'll give a heads-up to those watching for year-over-year profit: there's a relatively easy-to-create "surprising growth" low base in Q3 this year.
In Q3 last year, Netflix recognized about $619 million in expenses due to a tax dispute in Brazil, which alone dragged the operating margin down by more than 5 percentage points that quarter. The company's prior guidance for Q3 operating margin this year was 33.2%, compared to 28.2% in the same period last year. Just looking at these two numbers, it's easy to think operating efficiency suddenly jumped significantly.
But the low starting point last year caused by special expenses needs to be handled separately. You can't just see the year-over-year margin recovery and attribute all the credit to the advertising business. How much new revenue advertising actually contributed and how much sales and technical costs it required still need to be found in the relevant disclosures.
I still recognize the potential of the advertising business. It's just that the biggest pitfall in earnings reports is mistaking "expected base recovery" for "operational breakthroughs beyond expectations." The growth in results is real, but the value of these two types of growth is different.
When the report comes out, I'll first compare it with the company's original guidance, then break down the impact of last year's tax expenses. Profit improvements that still hold up after these two steps are more worth celebrating. Earnings season isn't short of impressive year-over-year numbers; what's lacking is numbers that remain impressive after reviewing the details.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高
On-chain: Whales no longer sending to exchanges, but "not selling" does not equal "buying"
Glassnode data shows that the net inflow trend of BTC whales to exchanges has stopped since late August, with capital flow remaining negative and large-scale miner sell-offs also retreating. This is one of the most important on-chain structural changes in the past three months: the textbook "whales deposit to exchanges → dump" chain has been broken. However, the disappearance of selling pressure is accompanied by a simultaneous shrinkage in trading volume. During the same period, spot and ETF trading volumes on exchanges have noticeably contracted; the previous rise was more due to high-level turnover rather than continuous inflow of new money. Meanwhile, another on-chain movement has appeared: some whales sold 410 BTC (about $34.16 million) and then bought 14,341 ETH (about $36.14 million). Funds have not exited but rotated internally from the "old consensus" to the "new narrative." This means the current on-chain signal is stock defense, not incremental offense. Whales not sending to exchanges only indicates that the short-term selling pressure peak has passed; a real rally requires seeing simultaneous expansion of new addresses and stablecoin supply, neither of which has been confirmed yet.$ETH: Total volume is bleeding, but the structure is speaking — the real risk is not outflow, but concentration
In the first week of October, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $679 million, ending three consecutive weeks of net inflows; on October 16, another $82.39 million flowed out, with IBIT alone accounting for $71.78 million. At first glance, it looks like institutions are withdrawing, but a closer look reveals a different picture: IBIT alone accounts for 63% of all ETF net assets, Grayscale's GBTC has seen a cumulative outflow of 27.9 billion, and the funds are not leaving Bitcoin but concentrating towards BlackRock. This concentration is a short-term support but a long-term vulnerability — when 63% of institutional exposure is tied to the same fund, any IBIT-level redemption will directly amplify into market-level selling pressure, and the other 11 funds do not have enough depth to absorb it. What is more noteworthy is the trading activity: on Friday, the total daily ETF trading volume was only $1.44 billion, hitting a 13-trading-day low, far below the September peak of $3.18 billion. Volume is shrinking, positions are concentrating, meaning the current price is set by a "few people," not broad consensus. The marginal flow of ETFs remains the most honest signal, but it is important to see if anyone is taking over beyond IBIT, rather than just looking at the total inflow or outflow. Three head chefs sold the secret recipes from the kitchen by the pound to the neighboring street at the restaurant's peak popularity — that's my first reaction to watching CoreWeave's drama. Since going public, the co-founders have sold about $3.3 billion worth of shares, pulling out $2.4 billion this year alone. They claim it's to prepare ingredients in advance and operate transparently, yet they still hold onto 20% of the base recipe. But the front-of-house customers aren't fools: within a week, the stock price was cut by a quarter, and long-term bond yields soared past 15 points. This is no longer a plating issue; the stove is emitting black smoke.
I have a strict rule when cooking: never dump all the side dishes into the pot before the main course is fully cooked. The AI cloud business right now is like a huge tomahawk steak — crispy on the outside, but when cut open, the blood hasn't been fully drained. The order backlog is that beautiful crust, but cash flow is the core temperature of the meat. QCP smells the burnt scent of credit risk, and Bank of America warns that expanding too fast will turn the aftertaste bitter — it's like having twenty pots on the stove at once; no matter how strong the fire, the broth can't handle being short on fuel for each pot. Huang is still saying long-term AI demand looks good, like the head chef patting you on the shoulder saying "this dish has a future market," but the oil temperature in your pot is already fluctuating wildly.
When it comes to portfolio allocation, you have to think with your tongue. Mainstream coins are the main course — filling, satisfying hunger, and durable through turnover; altcoins are the seasoning — sprinkle a bit to enhance aroma, but half a jar can overpower all the original flavors; leveraged contracts are the extra spicy chili — too much burns your stomach, but just right warms you up. The AI cloud ingredient now smells like truffle, but when cut open, the texture hides an industrial-level spiciness. Bond yields over 15 points mean that spoonful of chili oil on the books has already burnt to the edge of the pot. Do you think it won't affect the neighboring AI cloud kitchen? Supply chain anxiety is never a single-store problem; the entire food street's stocking rhythm will tremble.
At the end of the day, founders selling shares is reducing portions, stock price drops are customers returning dishes, and widening credit spreads mean suppliers are demanding cash on delivery. When these three signals appear together, the recipe needs to be rebalanced. The biggest fear in the kitchen isn't too much salt, but the side dishes not being fully cooked before the appetizer chef runs off — and now the cutting board is still hot. The recipe isn't finished, and the stove is still burning. #coreweave3.3bsharesales"Countdown 3 days: SOL swaps to a 150-millisecond heart⚡️"
The hardest facts first: Around 22:50 Wednesday night (Beijing time), epoch 1064 begins, SOL swaps its consensus heart — finality slashed from 12.8 seconds to about 150 milliseconds.
Not a one-click process: The old TowerBFT runs another 5000 slots (about 18 minutes) handing over to Votor; validators pay a 0.8 SOL ticket, Firedancer absent, 82% stake ready to launch. Votes no longer go on-chain, don't interpret the transaction count crash on activation day as bearish.
Three days before the upgrade, SOL hovered at 103.97, down about 13.9% since October 6, 100 is the bull-bear line, positions cut 2.96% fastest — bulls get shaken out first.
BTC is the most stable: 81800 up 0.29%, positions 52.2 billion down 0.39%. ETH stuck at 2400: 2419 down 0.33%, 71.43 million contracts with 87.9% longs, retail long-short ratio 3.08 — stubborn bulls. Next week CPI, initial claims, PMI queue for release.
My personal view:
① Don't chase SOL: 100 is the life-or-death line, before upgrade it's waiting for the reveal, 103.97 no chasing longs or shorts;
② Watch two traps on activation day: don't treat the transaction count crash as bearish, no leverage moves 18 minutes before and after handover 🎯;
③ Use BTC as anchor: above 81800 low longs look to 82500, break 81200 run, currently I'm losing money 💰
Are you betting on upgrade bullish realization or betting the good news is priced in and will dump? See you in the comments 👀$BTC Macro: Conflicting data, the market is pricing in "stagflation," but most people are focusing on the wrong variables
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, and the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 36% to 17% within a week; however, CPI year-over-year is 3.7%, PPI surged to 6.3%, and retail sales month-over-month rose 0.8%, far exceeding expectations. Employment is weak, inflation is hot, and the Federal Reserve is caught in the middle, with the market oscillating accordingly. Most people are still using the old framework of "rate hike = negative, no rate hike = positive" for BTC, but the real pricing variable now is not whether rates rise, but how long real interest rates can hold. Oil prices contributed half of the monthly CPI increase, and this part could fall at any time; however, retail spending was revised up to 1.3% in August and remains strong, indicating that consumer demand has not collapsed. If inflation falls slower than employment deteriorates, the Fed will be forced to choose between "protecting employment" and "controlling inflation," and whichever side it chooses, the loss of fiat currency credit is the long-term logic for crypto assets. In the short term, don't guess the direction; watching the marginal changes in real interest rates is more useful than watching the probability of rate hikes. Long-term holding is possible, but don't treat $STRK as a belief
STRK is the native token of Starknet, belonging to the Ethereum ZK-Rollup Layer 2 track. It's not completely without chance, but it's also not suitable to be considered a "buy and hold to win" asset. More accurately, STRK currently belongs to a high-risk watchlist: the technical narrative still exists, the ecosystem is recovering, but the unlocking pressure, user growth, and competitive landscape have not truly reversed.
🏆 From a fundamental perspective, STRK's biggest advantage is still its technical route.
Starknet uses STARK proofs, and by 2026 it has launched the STRK20 privacy framework and Shadow Accounts, with transaction fees gradually shifting to payment in STRK. After the v0.14.3 upgrade, if more transactions really use STRK to pay gas in the future, the token demand will be more genuine than now. There have also been discussions in the community about an independent Layer 1 and quantum-resistant routes; although these governance topics cannot immediately translate into performance, they do bring periodic sentiment fluctuations.
Ecosystem data is also slowly recovering. TVL, DEX trading volume, and stablecoin scale have all improved, indicating that capital and trading activity have not completely died out. On-chain transaction volume once returned to a relatively high level, and DEX trading volume noticeably expanded during certain periods. However, these improvements are still insufficient to indicate a full ecosystem recovery.A mine exploded on an oil tanker, causing oil prices to surge and then retreat
Two ultra-large oil tankers hit mines and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude briefly surged to $110 but fell back to around $106 by the morning of the 18th, while WTI dropped below $99
The market is pricing in "no further escalation of risk"
They are very good at stirring things up—only controlling the tankers so they can't transport oil, not letting the tankers sink, and not allowing the conflict to escalate, just preventing oil transport
After liquidation, leverage remains unchanged
$BTC futures open interest still hangs at $52.6 billion, shrinking only 0.14% in 24 hours. Some long positions were wiped out, but the overall position size didn't decrease; just different players are holding on
Oil prices have retreated, but the mines remain. The position near 81,000 is a new position, not the batch that was already liquidated
#霍尔木兹再现水雷威胁，油价风险升温 The two flashes of fire in Hormuz are not just spikes on the oil price curve; they are two penetrating cracks torn open in the core of the global energy pipeline network—two supertankers hit mines and caught fire, one carrying over two million barrels of crude oil, instantly exceeding its load limit.
I've been in structural engineering for twenty years, and the two words I fear most are "to be confirmed." Until independently verified, all data are just renderings. Kpler reports transport volumes 43% lower than before the conflict; this is not a superficial color difference, but measured subsidence: the main building still stands, but the foundation beneath is sinking.
Brent closed at 109.86 on October 16, breaking through 110 intraday. That 3.7% is not an emotional premium; the market overnight recalculated the building's seismic rating. The original design assumed "the strait is always navigable," effectively placing all safety factors on a single column; now that column shows fatigue cracks, and the first reaction of the reviewer is never to repaint but to immediately add shear walls.
Iran's "conditional seven-day resumption of navigation" proposal via Qatar looks to me like a temporary scaffold. Scaffolds allow work to be done but are not included in structural calculations, do not bear long-term loads, and must be dismantled when the wind picks up. Without the other party's signature, this support system can't even enter the acceptance process; no matter how well the schedule is written, concrete cannot be poured.
As for the "alternative export," that's a makeshift bypass pipe. The diameter is insufficient, the joints don't match, and the pump station hasn't been expanded; hard connections will only transfer stress to the next elbow—the stress doesn't disappear, it just relocates, eventually bursting at an unmonitored node. True redundancy should have been reserved on day one, not patched after collapse.
Looking at linked instruments like $xIWM—they are like glass curtain walls hanging outside the main structure. Curtain walls are non-load-bearing but break first. In a real quake, the first to fall is never the core tube but the curtain wall; watching it shake violently and assuming it bears load is the most common mistake of outsiders: mistaking amplitude for load-bearing capacity. Its rise and fall are not fundamentals but wind pressure coefficients.
Designers know a building doesn't collapse from the top down; it starts with the foundation's moisture content. Seven days is not the construction period but the observation period; 110 is not the ceiling but the current stress reading of this building. #hormuzminethreatThe fastest scenario for storage is a rebound on the 21st; the worst case is that it will take until after the midterm elections. It's not exactly a rebound on the 21st, but the funds will start entering as the decline stops on the 21st. Meta's Muse will announce its revenue on the 21st, and the market will learn how much this AI agent can earn. Once the revenue is solid enough, the hardware will stabilize accordingly, since this means more computing power is needed. Similarly, the biggest shortage for such AI agents is CPUs, meaning INTC and AMD will see a wave of gains. Last time Muse came out, INTC rose from 100 to 140. The short-term king hesitated, waiting at 95, and ended up missing out. AMD also broke through 600, but personally, I prefer INTC. Americans want to make INTC the Nvidia of the CPU world. Based on previous situations, Muse's performance is very likely to be impressive and will significantly help hardware stabilize. Secondly, whenever the market faces such a big drop, big players always come out to speak, like this time it was Jensen Huang. Those in tech know how much Huang helps the sector, including in July and August when he often spoke up for tech, including Wash. Those currently stuck should not worry; it will basically recover. The AI bubble will not burst now. Huang wants the bubble to grow bigger. Right now, AI's biggest shortage is financing, and the market's biggest concern is profitability—whether the debt principal can be recovered. Corewave, as a central link, has a very high debt load. $INTC $SOXL $SNDK A $44 trillion pressure map has already been displayed on the forecast hall screen, but the warm and moist airflow supporting it—productivity measured on an all-economic scale—has not yet been observed at any ground station.
This is the most glaring contradiction in the current AI climate model: numerical forecasts are running two orders of magnitude faster than actual conditions. The $600 billion annual investment proposed by Goldman Sachs is equivalent to injecting a strong warm and moist advection accounting for 2% of the US GDP into the economy. Data centers and computing clusters are rapidly accumulating like cumulonimbus clouds on the plains, with cloud top heights continuously rising. Efficiency improvements at the enterprise level are localized showers—they have indeed occurred and have been measured by rain gauges—but extrapolating this to the entire basin’s runoff remains an extended forecast with low confidence.
We need to observe three layers of the weather system. The first layer: the capital expenditure front has passed, with thick clouds and ample lifting conditions. Giants treat computing power and data centers as moisture conveyors at the forefront of the cold front, with no signs of investment intensity weakening. The second layer: precipitation efficiency on the income side has yet to be verified, meaning there is much condensation in the clouds, but the proportion actually reaching the ground is questionable. The third layer: the valuation pressure gradient is firmly held by a low-pressure center; any productivity actuals falling short of expectations will cause a sudden wind shift, triggering short-term strong convection.
Next, look at the sounding curve of linked assets. Risk-hedging assets like $XAUT act as high-altitude temperature advectors; when the AI narrative pushes risk appetite to an extremely warm zone, their readings skew cold. Once the coverage issue of capital expenditure is exposed by actual data in earnings seasons, the temperature advection quickly reverses, and demand for hedging will rapidly descend like nocturnal radiative cooling. This is not a forecast for a single day’s weather but an assessment of the entire season’s circulation background—currently, the circulation pattern features a strong warm ridge and a weak cold vortex, but the ridge line position is extremely fragile.
My professional judgment is straightforward: $44 trillion is the ceiling scenario output by the model, not an actual forecast. What truly determines whether this AI front can bring effective precipitation is not how thick the clouds are, but whether the ground rain gauges can continuously record positive increments over the next few quarters. Until ground-level productivity actuals turn positive, all long-term growth precipitation forecasts remain within the dispersion of ensemble forecasts. #aicouldliftusgdpto44tLast December, he said BTC might drop to 65,000, and it later fell to 57,800. Now he says a new bull market has begun.
Fidelity Macro Director Timmer said on October 18 that a new four-year cycle bull market might be unfolding, adding: there seems to be no narrative at the moment, but bull markets rarely start with a narrative.
On December 18, 2025, he said (when BTC was at 88,000): the last halving cycle has ended in both price and time, it might pull back to 65,000 to 70,000, but is bullish in the long term.
BTC peaked at 126,200 last October and bottomed at 57,809 at the end of June this year, which is even deeper than his given range. Now at 81,798, it has recovered 41.5% from the low, still 35.2% below the high.
I think the power-law model gives a long-term slope, not turning points. 57,800 and 81,800 are only a few percentage points apart on the line, but for leveraged positions, it means life or death. So he wasn’t wrong both times; it’s just that this ruler can’t measure short cycles.
I don’t guess tops or bottoms, only look at ranges: September high 87,399, October low 79,775.
Only if it breaks above 87,399 is the new bull market confirmed; if it falls below 79,775, this wave is just a rebound.
Which side are you betting on: the start of a bull market or a bear market rebound?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#机构资金持续流出，BTC能否企稳？ #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 【On-chain volume shrinks to a minimal level, what is the market waiting for?】
$BTC 24h trading volume is 11.89B, only 44% of the 10-day average volume of 26.72B; ETH is 5.92B, only 50% of the average volume. This minimal volume level has occurred a few times in the past year: early January 2026 (BTC 0.38x average volume, then rebounded 15%), mid-June 2026 (0.42x average volume, then continued to drop 8%). Minimal volume itself is not a signal; minimal volume plus key levels is. On 10/15, BTC volume surged to 42B (1.57x average volume), while hitting the monthly low of 79,736, which is a "testing the waters" signal — the first proof that someone is buying. But the second proof that it can't be pushed down hasn't appeared yet. Confirmation requires volume to break above 83,400.刚刚那一分钟，BTC又往下蹭了一格，盘口薄得像纸。 谁在真金白银地接这些货？ CoinShares最新数据挺扎心的：全球数字资产投资产品单周净流出4.34亿美元，美国现货ETF也在失血，BTC一周走了约2.25亿，ETH更夸张，直接撤了3.2亿。单日看，BTC净流出8240万，ETH连续三天净流出。SOL一周流出约2552万，XRP约212万，整体资金面还没掉头。 我盯着的不是这些数字本身，而是它们和美股风险偏好的错位。这周科技股其实没崩，纳指还在高位磨，但加密ETF却连续失血——说明机构不是在砍总仓位，而是在砍加密这个子仓位的优先级。跨市场联动看，美元指数没大动，美债收益率也没飙，外部流动性没紧到要命，钱是主动选择暂时不碰这个板块。这比"被宏观逼着卖"更微妙，因为一旦风险偏好回来，回补可以很快；但也意味着现在没有外部借口，纯粹是内部信心不足。 偏多的路径：BTC曾单日净流入1.76亿，随后又流出2.61亿，这种大幅摆动说明多空都在试探，不是单边溃败。如果下周BTC、ETH的ETF能连续转为净流入，哪怕金额不大，也代表新钱愿意接货，ETH被压得最狠，反弹弹性反而可能最大。偏空的风险：E$BZ believes that the 'Poison King' will want to secure the Senate in the midterm elections and also ensure that oil prices do not remain at such a high level. The extraction cost of US shale oil is around $68. As long as oil prices are controlled around $90, that is quite satisfactory for those oil giants. But now the price has reached about $106, which is clearly an overvalued price. Moreover, Trump will not take military action against Iran in the short term; if he really wants to act, it will be after the midterm elections, so the possibility of a second rise in oil prices is very low. Now is a relatively good time to short.There is an 84.5% probability of no action; this figure is already set, but what’s truly worth pondering is whether the remaining 15.5% possibility will actually stir the market. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently bets on an 84.5% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October, and a 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike (raising the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points). Event-driven markets usually move in two phases: the first phase is sentiment leading with price reacting first; the second phase is fundamentals taking over, seeing if capital is willing to continue following. Looking at the current market coordinates: BTC is priced at 81,799.70, with a 24-hour increase of 0.27%; ETH is priced at 2,417.19, with a 24-hour decrease of 0.49%. Among spot USDT trading pairs with trading volumes over $100,000, 37 coins rose while 152 fell. Overall, the market has not shown a one-sided reaction to this news; bulls and bears are still probing. What to watch closely next are three lines. First, whether volume can pick up. In event-driven markets, the trading volume on the second day often carries more weight than the first day; price alone without volume means capital has not truly taken a stance. Second, whether other assets in the same sector move along. If only a single asset rises, it usually concerns only itself and does not indicate consensus on the overall direction. Third, which way the funding rate is leaning. The funding rate is perpetualThe sand funding fee has started to accumulate, stacking to -1, charged every hour. Let's see if an extreme short squeeze will come later.US stocks are all taking hits, how far can the crypto rebound go? Looking at BTC and ETH these past two days, I think we still need to watch Wall Street's mood.
On October 16, the Nasdaq closed down about 2.1%, falling 4.5% for the week, marking its worst weekly performance since June. The S&P 500 also dropped about 1.1% that day. The pressure on tech stocks hasn't eased yet.
🔹 Why should the crypto market be cautious when tech stocks fall?
My understanding is that it comes down to how much risk capital is willing to take.
When investors start worrying whether AI investments can turn a profit or whether debt-fueled expansion can continue, they may reduce their positions in high-volatility assets. Even without new negative news, BTC and ETH could be dragged down by this sentiment.
🔹 What does the rotation of funds in US stocks mean for crypto?
On October 15, when the S&P rose, leading sectors included healthcare, indicating a shift in the market from AI to other sectors.
This reminds me: even if US stock indexes recover, it depends on who is rising. A shift of funds to defensive sectors doesn't mean everyone is ready to take risks again, nor does it directly imply an altcoin rally is coming.
🔹 What will I focus on next week?
Whether the Nasdaq can stop falling, whether selling pressure on tech stocks can ease, and whether there is spot buying support for BTC and ETH.
Today is Sunday, US markets are closed, but crypto is still trading. Weekend rebounds can be observed, but to confirm the strength of the recovery, we need to see if buying continues after US markets open next week.This meme coin is doomed to zero, nothing more to say! If the pumpers dare to push it back up, with so many people trapped, would they dare? 😎
【This short position is nailed tight】
A classic “A-shaped kill”!
From the peak at 0.12680, it plunged straight down to the current 0.06317, a direct 50% cut! A 7-day drop of -48.68%, those who chased longs at the 0.12 peak probably lost even their underwear now.
Finally caught this big trend! Shorted in at 0.07093, held all the way to now, floating profit soared to +32.69%!
Falling from 0.12, there was almost no decent rebound in between. How many retail investors are stuck up there? If the pumpers try to push the price up now, it would be charity to unlock the trapped positions above. The main players aren’t that stupid; they’ll just keep smashing it down, forcing retail to cut losses.
The price can’t even hold above the MA5, it’s a market fully dominated by bears.
Once market sentiment cools, these hype-driven meme coins are the first to be abandoned. Without funds to catch the fall, what would they pump with?
Pumpers, you were so arrogant when pushing the price up before, now you’re just as miserable smashing it down. I’m watching your show from the sidelines; if you dare to pump it back up now and free all the trapped retail investors above, I’ll salute you as a real man!
$STRK
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Bullish brothers, open your eyes and take a look at this chart,
don't be deluded anymore.
Do you think 1130 is a solid bottom? Do you think it should rebound after dropping to 1140?
Let me tell you, a true bottom is never conjured up by willpower or fantasy.
Why is it falling? Look at what has happened on-chain in the past two days.
On-chain detective ZachXBT directly named suspects: North Korean hackers are allegedly exploiting Zcash's privacy features to transfer about $3.8 million ZEC stolen from a Bitget vulnerability.
Hackers are using it as a money laundering channel, and regulatory scrutiny will only get closer.
Meanwhile, Grayscale's ZCSH ETF funds continue to bleed, with a net outflow of $1.2197 million in a single day.
Smart money is withdrawing, dirty money is sneaking in; with such fundamentals, what can hold the thousand-dollar mark?
Look at the liquidation data. In the past 24 hours, ZEC has seen $8.8 million in liquidations across the network, with long positions liquidated at $6.7587 million and shorts only $2.0439 million.
The bulls are being ground down, one chain reaction liquidation after another. If you're still waiting for a rebound, all you'll get is the next batch of liquidations.
The next move is simple: hold your base position. If the pumpers really give face and it rebounds to 1180 to 1200 to lure longs, I'll take profits and roll them into short positions. Target? First watch the previous low at 1073; if it breaks, the abyss lies below.
Don't fight the trend
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #HBM4量产能否推动SK海力士盈利再创新高？
It can definitely reach new highs again because new technology often generates a high premium. And now, high-end memory itself already carries a premium, combined with the mass production of memory generated by new technology. They can further raise the price, so under this double-layered overlay, it will definitely bring more considerable revenue and profit when demand is high. Globally, there are not many manufacturers capable of producing high-end HBM4; it still belongs to a situation and pattern of a few companies jointly monopolizing. Although memory is a cyclical product with explosive demand and it is difficult to maintain long-term sustainability, unlike Nvidia, it will maintain a relatively high state before demand declines, possibly lasting one to two years. Theoretically, HBM demand normally wouldn't last this long, but indirectly, Jensen Huang previously collaborated with financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and AI companies to sign graphics card leasing agreements, extending the lifespan of these graphics card companies and allowing them to purchase more graphics cards with relatively reduced financial pressure. They can even come up with some money; for example, for a graphics card that costs 10,000 yuan upfront, through leasing, they only need to pay 100 yuan, and the remaining funds can be used to purchase memory modules and expand cloud data centers.Continuing with crude oil: short CL near 99 USD, first target at 95
Yesterday, my view on the crude oil rally over the week was just a sentiment premium from the Strait of Hormuz, not a real supply-demand gap
Today the market has already responded, CL in the after-hours session directly broke below 99, dropping to 98.68, high-level longs are starting to loosen, which from time to time means the sentiment premium is slowly dissipating
No need to focus on conflict news from the strait, as this blurs the distinction between friction and blockade
Although there was an incident with an oil tanker, the channel has not been completely closed, and original supplies have not been cut off
As long as the strait shipping is not cut off, the rally driven by panic is destined to fall back
The short-term longs piled up from last week's 10% surge are holding rich floating profits over the weekend
Now that the market has turned, profit-taking orders will gradually emerge, and concentrated long exits will accelerate price declines
The self-regulating logic of high oil prices still holds
As long as oil prices stay above 100, energy inflation will rise
After the Fed's rate cut expectations retreat, US Treasury yields rise, and the Nasdaq and semiconductors fall
The current oil price pullback is easing this inflation pressure
Once oil prices continue to decline, CPI and PPI inflation pressures will ease
The biggest pressure on tech stocks will be relieved
Next week we will focus on two levels:
First, 95 is our first target for shorting CL; after reaching it, we need to observe the strength of the stop in the decline
Second, watch if US Treasury yields and the dollar pull back, and if semiconductors and Nasdaq rebound
In this round of market moves, crude oil is the master switch of the market volatility
Oil price falls, inflation drops, and US stocks can rebound Recent Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend on Crypto 【Macro】
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been oscillating around 103 recently, with no clear direction. For crypto, the negative correlation between DXY and BTC has weakened somewhat in 2026, but they still move together during extreme market conditions. If DXY breaks above 105, risk assets are likely to come under pressure; if it falls below 102, capital may flow back into risk assets.
Currently, both BTC and ETH are positioned 30% and 44% below their 52-week highs, respectively, pricing in quite a bit of negative sentiment. However, "falling a lot" does not mean "the fall is over"; the framework ensures small losses but does not guarantee every trade will be right. This is not the hitting zone now; playing dead is also a way to hold positions. First, let's reconcile the accounts with three sentences about last night's after-hours trading. First, SOL 105 is the lifeline; it closed at 104.02 last night. If it really breaks below, I admit it. Second, BTC reversal confirmation line is 82600; today the 24-hour high only touched 82480, not even reaching the line. The reversal this round is officially sealed: no chance. Third, if 81k holds, it will continue to consolidate. This morning the lowest point hit 80813.6, just 4 dollars above yesterday's low of 80809.5, stubbornly not breaking, then bounced back to 81897. What is the market doing this morning? One word: consolidating. BTC at 81,897, up 0.44% in 24 hours, fluctuating only about 1.5 points. ETH at 2422, slightly down 0.19%, but the fee rate at 0.0066% is the highest among the three brothers; bulls are still willing to pay more interest, not completely lying down. SOL at 104.27, down 0.48%, fee rate at -0.0007% still negative; bears have no intention of letting go. In the afternoon, watch two things: whether BTC can reach 82072 (morning high). Only if it reaches there does it qualify to challenge 82600 again; failure to hold the reversal means it's just talk. Downward, watch 80813; if it breaks today's low, the psychological 80000 level will be directly contested. Falsification and final word: if BTC closes back above and holds 82600 today, my "no chance for reversal" judgment is immediately void, and I will admit my mistake first thing in tonight's after-hours opening. Do you think the 82600 line has a chance today? Comment below.At first, I thought that after the crash at midnight, the leverage on ETH would lighten a bit.
Just checked OKEx ETH perpetual contracts, and the lowest point in that one hour at 5 AM was 2,355, with positions dropping by about 23,000. BTC also dipped a bit in the same hour, but positions basically stayed the same.
By noon, ETH positions had bounced back to about 587,000, a bit more than before the crash, and the price had climbed back up.
The wave of liquidations at midnight was replenished within seven hours, and leverage basically piled back up to last night's level. If by this time tomorrow OKEx ETH perpetual positions drop below 570,000, then I was wrong.
Were you liquidated in that midnight crash, or did you place orders early to catch the dip below?
$ETH #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Looking back at ETF subscriptions and redemptions from October 12 to 16, the combined net outflow from the three spot channels BTC, ETH, and SOL was about $574 million, all moving in the same direction with no channel recording a weekly net inflow. This is not a fatal signal for the rebound, but it does indicate insufficient capital coordination.
$BTC: There was some inflow, but the continuity was lacking. This week saw a net outflow of $228.4 million. After an inflow of $175.7 million on Tuesday, it turned to an outflow of $261.4 million on Wednesday, followed by another outflow of $82.4 million on Friday. The buying side is not absent; the problem is the rapid switching between inflows and outflows, preventing continuous support.
$SOL: The outflow scale is small, but the trend signal is stronger. This week had a net outflow of $25.5 million, which is not significant in absolute terms, but there were net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days totaling $50.5 million. On Friday alone, $12.7 million flowed out, nearly half of the week's total. Continuous withdrawal is more noteworthy than a single large outflow, indicating that capital is steadily reducing exposure.
$ETH: Weekly outflow exceeded BTC. This week saw a net outflow of $320.1 million, surpassing BTC. There were outflows for three consecutive days from Wednesday to Friday, totaling $259.5 million. Looking only at the ETF channel, ETH has yet to see stable replenishment.
Of course, ETF subscriptions and redemptions are only part of the market's buying activity and cannot be used alone to conclude a decline. But to make this rebound more convincing, at least several consecutive trading days of net capital inflow need to be observed. Risk assets fell in sync, with $BTC briefly dipping to about $81,000 and $ETH touching $2,365, but the key defense lines held: $80,000 and $2,400 respectively form short-term support. What truly deserves attention is not the decline itself, but the divergence of "price holding while funds are withdrawing"—ETF net outflows reached $681 million in a single week, indicating that this round of selling pressure is not driven by retail sentiment but by institutions actively reducing risk exposure. The short-term pricing power has already shifted to institutions. This also explains why the technical outlook remains weak: moving average structures have not been restored, the rebound lacks volume support, and prices are merely being propped up rather than actively bought. From a market structure perspective, $80,000 and $2,400 are critical because they represent the last cost defense lines for bulls in this adjustment. Holding these means selling pressure is gradually absorbed, and bears need new catalysts to continue pressing; losing them means previous low-level buy orders turn into floating loss positions, likely triggering a chain of position reductions and opening up more adjustment space. In other words, these two price levels are not prediction points but markers dividing bullish and bearish forces. For bulls to truly regain the initiative, two conditions must be met simultaneously: first, the FOMC must signal a less hawkish stance to ease valuation pressure on risk assets; second, ETF fund flows must turn from negative to positive, proving institutions have switched from "withdrawing" to "replenishing." Missing either condition means any rebound is more likely just a technical repair within the range. The bears’ trigger condition is also clear: $BTC effectively breaking below $80,000, $E