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$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
Current market status of btc: After a rebound wave, it is consolidating at a high level, surging close to 80,000 USD before facing resistance and pulling back. Now it is fluctuating back and forth in the 76,000-78,000 USD range, which is a shakeout phase after the positive news has been realized. The previous surge was mainly due to: Trump's crypto-friendly expectations + US Treasury repo expectations + shorts being forced to cover positions.
However, the positive factors remain but with uncertainties
• ETF has had continuous capital inflows recently; institutions are indeed buying;
• The market is betting on the Senate passing crypto legislation in September, but the bill may not pass, and if it falls short of expectations, a sharp drop is likely;
• The US Treasury repo will officially launch on September 9, currently it is just speculative hype.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $BTC Mid-term Trend (1-3 months, September-November, mainly focusing on the Federal Reserve + regulatory bills)
Bullish Supporting Factors
1. Macro liquidity expectations easing
The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes were dovish, with the probability of a rate hike in September dropping to 30%-35%, and the market pricing in rate cuts by the end of the year; the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, suppressing U.S. Treasury yields and lowering the holding cost of yield-free assets like BTC. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to the highest level since the pandemic, strengthening the logic of anti-devaluation allocation.
2. Improved expectations for U.S. regulatory policies
Trump met with crypto industry executives, publicly promoting the "CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act," and the SEC plans to establish a crypto asset compliance safe harbor. Market expectations for industry regulation are heating up, boosting institutional allocation willingness.
3. Extremely solid chip structure (the biggest confidence for the mid-term)
Long-term holders control 83% of circulating BTC, the highest proportion since December 2023; profit-taking chips in the $60,000-$70,000 range account for only 19%, and high-level trapped chips have significantly decreased, greatly reducing the possibility of a deep crash. Selling pressure is much weaker than during the 2025 bear market phase.
Mid-term Core Risks (suppressing the height of the rally)
1. Repeated rebounds in inflation data: If PCE and CPI exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts, leading to a collective valuation downgrade of risk assets;
2. Congressional vote on crypto bills falls short of expectations: During the September-October bill voting window, if harsh regulatory clauses are added, market sentiment will be quickly suppressed;
3. Excessive market leverage: After this rally, futures open interest has surged. Once negative news emerges, it could trigger a chain reaction of forced liquidations and a pullback. $BTC Current BTC price is about $77,650, with a weekly increase of 22.6%, marking the largest weekly gain in nearly 3 years. This round is driven by a triple resonance of macro liquidity, policy expectations, and short squeeze. The trend is analyzed in short-term, mid-term, and long-term perspectives:
1. Short-term trend (1-4 weeks, mainly consolidation and digestion)
1. Technical range
• Core consolidation range: $75,400 (strong support) ~ $79,500 (first resistance)
• Breakout condition: Stabilize above $79,500, with an upper target of $84,100;
• Breakdown risk: Fall below $75,000 support, short-term pullback to $72,800 to seek support.
2. Core market logic
1. The rise has exhausted a large amount of short momentum: This rally was driven by nearly $3 billion in short liquidations. After the short squeeze ends, there is a lack of leveraged buying to follow up, entering a short-term consolidation phase for profit-taking.
2. Capital structure divergence: Spot ETFs continue net inflows (accumulated $1.6 billion in a single week) providing bottom support, but futures leverage funding rates are rising, and short-term speculative traders are eager to take profits.
3. Key observation point: On September 9, the US Treasury repo plan officially launches. If long-term bond yields rebound again, BTC will face pressure simultaneously; if yields continue downward, consolidation may be followed by further upward movement.
Two short-term scenarios
• Optimistic: Sideways consolidation in the $75,500-$79,000 range with ETF inflows supporting, aiming to challenge $84,000 by month-end;
• Cautious: Inflation data rebounds and hawkish Fed officials' remarks trigger a short-term pullback to $72,000-$73,000. For those who are still heavily invested in BTC now, I can only say: you probably haven't understood the E/B exchange rate yet.
Why am I not holding BTC now?
Because in the next 2–3 years, ETH is very likely to continue outperforming BTC.
The annual E/B exchange rate is already very clear: after years of continuous decline, the drop has significantly narrowed this year, approaching a doji pattern, even brewing a reversal.
This means that even if ETH can't significantly outperform BTC temporarily, the space for ETH to continue underperforming significantly in the future is already very limited.
Since the two are highly correlated, why not choose ETH with a higher payoff?
Now let's look at BTC itself.
At the beginning of August, it was still around 62,000, then quickly surged to 80,000 in a short time. This kind of rise doesn't seem solid to me.
It's like losing five pounds in two days by taking laxatives—it's water loss, not fat.
So I still believe that 58,000 is not the real bottom of this cycle.
I don't even expect BTC to enter a true bull market throughout 2027.
The reason is simple: next year may still be a bear market environment for risk assets.
The annual structure of the US stock market is also becoming clearer. I judged in Q2 that the US stock market could maintain high-level volatility in Q3, weaken starting Q4, and enter a larger-scale decline in 2027.
If the US stock market enters a systemic adjustment, BTC and ETH will find it hard to be completely independent.
The real hope for BTC to re-enter a major upward cycle, I still see it in the 2028 halving cycle.
So BTC at over 70,000 USD now still seems very fragile to me.
It looks solid but is actually just a layer of paper The valuation narrative supporting $SNDK's extreme one-sided rally has long collapsed amid multiple rounds of chip turnover and rapid market sentiment withdrawal. Since it reached its historical valuation peak, the token's price has cumulatively retraced well beyond the extreme critical threshold of 99%, and throughout this continuous downtrend, it has been persistently pressured by primary distribution selling.
Currently, in the same sector ecosystem, $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR—previously highly correlated with its capital flow—have all, under the support of sustained incremental new funds, successively achieved effective breakthroughs from long-term bottom consolidation ranges, launching completely counter-market independent rebounds. $SNDK's downward momentum shows no sign of marginal slowdown, and there has never been sufficient spot buying volume in the crypto market to absorb the overwhelming selling pressure. $SNDK #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX Watched $AAOI all night, the pre-market atmosphere feels a bit strange. The underlying stock is being hammered by a $600 million secondary offering while some are calling for a pre-market surge, but the token price is sluggish and unmoved.
📰 News: Overnight, the underlying stock was hit 10% due to the $600 million secondary offering. In pre-market, surging news appeared in the opposite direction. Bullish and bearish news are clashing, and the token price does not follow the stock sentiment all day, indicating that capital is still wary of dilution.
🔧 Technicals: On the 4-hour chart, RSI14=48.5 is neutral with no clear direction. MACD shows a golden cross but the expanding red bars suggest some divergence. Price has fallen below MA7/MA25, with the 7/25 moving averages in a bearish alignment. During rebounds, the short moving average clearly suppresses the price.
🌍 Macro: The Nasdaq 100 tokens are down -0.41% pre-market. The broader market offers no positive feedback. US pre-market liquidity is thin, and secondary offerings tend to amplify bearish sentiment. The external environment is unfriendly to bulls.
🎯 Today's view: I am bearish today. Dilution from the secondary offering is a real pressure. Technically, the short moving averages are bearish and have not been reclaimed. The pre-market market is weak. The token lacks conditions to strengthen independently. The bulls lack convincing power at this level.
📊 Token 110.07 (-0.78%) | US stock pre-market
#USStocks
#OpticalModules
#SemiconductorSector From August 19 to 20, the stock price of stablecoin issuer Circle rose by approximately 16.7%. During the same period, Bitcoin broke through $70,000, U.S. Treasury yields declined, and crypto concept stocks generally strengthened. News such as the White House meeting with crypto industry executives and the increase in USDC market share further boosted market sentiment.
This rebound largely stems from sector-wide momentum. Circle's own fundamentals remain mixed: in Q2, USDC circulation and on-chain transaction volume continued to grow, but revenue growth has slowed, with over 85% of revenue still coming from interest generated by reserve assets. As interest rates decline, whether USDC's scale expansion can offset the drop in reserve yields becomes a key factor affecting short-term profitability.
A longer-term variable is the Arc blockchain and Circle Payments Network (CPN). The Arc public mainnet is scheduled to launch on September 16, with institutions such as BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, and DTCC participating in validation or related business integration. Circle hopes to leverage this to expand revenue from transactions, settlements, and software services, reducing reliance on reserve interest.
The $259 valuation given in this article corresponds to a neutral scenario in 2030, significantly higher than the Wall Street average target price of about $101. The former already factors in the successful commercialization of Arc and CPN, while the latter mainly relies on reserve income, interest rate environment, and recent performance over the next 12 months. Which valuation Circle ultimately achieves depends on whether the Arc launch brings real assets, trading activity, and sustained revenue. Circle's stock price rose 9.56% on August 19, closing at $78.59; it rose another 6.45% the next day, closing at $83.66, for a two-day cumulative increase of about 16.7%. On August 21, Circle continued to rise 5.16%, closing at $87.98.
The continuous rise shows a clear improvement in market sentiment. However, this article believes that the market moves in the first two trading days were mainly driven by Bitcoin's rise, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, and the strengthening of crypto concept stocks, with no significant fundamental changes in Circle itself sufficient to explain this increase. Looking at Bitcoin's bear market from the early plunge in gold
Now looking at Bitcoin's reversal from the big rise in gold
US long-term Treasury repurchase supports gold and Bitcoin; the similarity between the two is that they are increasingly approaching an inverse relationship with the US dollar.
Gold continued to rise after breaking through the 4600 mark, while Bitcoin maintained a sideways adjustment at the weekly high, after last week's strong rally.
It's basically very difficult for Bitcoin to plunge sharply in the short term unless there is a major negative news stimulus. As for the upward trend, it may test 80,000 again, but the momentum will definitely not be as strong as last week.
According to my prediction, after a second surge, it will face pressure and fall back. Whether this happens also depends on whether Trump will "cause trouble" in the process.#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？
Alibaba is issuing 710 million new shares this time, raising about HKD 80 billion, and clearly directing all funds towards AI infrastructure. I think this should not be simply understood as "positive for AI" or "negative due to dilution."
It’s more like Alibaba proactively bringing forward its AI investments for the next few years to today.
From the company’s perspective, this is easy to understand. AI cloud, computing power, and model training all require continuous heavy spending. It’s better to prepare the funds now than to scramble for financing when demand arises later.
But from the shareholders’ perspective, the logic is completely different.
Issuing new shares means existing shareholders get diluted, so what the market really needs to calculate is not "how many data centers can be built with HKD 80 billion," but rather:
Can this HKD 80 billion ultimately generate new profits exceeding the cost of dilution?
Looking at these AI capital-intensive companies now, I no longer just focus on revenue growth. Revenue growth is certainly important, but more crucial is whether we can see improvements in profit margins and free cash flow later on.
Anyone can say they want to build computing power, train models, and expand data centers, but the real difference is seen years later when looking back—some have turned capital expenditures into cash flow, while others have just burned through money.
So I am not opposed to Alibaba continuing to heavily invest in AI. To some extent, I even prefer to see it putting money in now.这周有一个会议，能决定比特币涨还是跌，能决定美股能不能反弹，甚至影响A股。它叫杰克逊霍尔。 先说背景。 上周美国债券市场出了大事——30年期国债利率冲到5.33%，这是2007年以来最高。美国政府借长期款，要付近20年来最贵的利息。 财政部紧急出手，宣布要用更多钱去市场买回长期债，防止利率继续飙。 消息出来，利率单日急跌。 但第二天，又涨回来了。政府的救市，24小时就失效了。 所以现在焦点全在本周四开幕的杰克逊霍尔年会上。 这是美联储的年度重要会议，就看一件事：官员说不说年内要降息。 说了，美股止跌，比特币有机会冲8万。不说，美债继续高位，美股压力还在，比特币可能回调到7万以下。 比特币上周从6.2万美元涨到7.7万，涨了24%。主要是特朗普推加密立法，机构跟进，一周买了将近20亿美元的比特币ETF，是今年单周最高。 以太坊也涨了30%，大批做空的人被强制平仓，反而加速了上涨。 现在两个都在高位等信号。 A股今天开盘。上周贵金属涨了4.6%、通信算力资金净买入超65亿。三个部委联合出了促消费的政策，对中小科技股有支撑。 关注今天成交额，能不能保住1.8万亿，是判断行情能不能走的关键。 Pop Mart’s earnings shock is a masterclass in how quickly hype can turn into a hangover. The company that once seemed unstoppable has hit a wall, and the market is scrambling to reassess its valuation. 🎢 Despite brokerages already trimming forecasts, the first-half report still surprised to the downside. Revenue for H1 2026 came in at RMB 17.173 billion, up 23.8% year-on-year, with net profit of RMB 5.1 billion, up 9.5%. But the cracks are visible. Q1 revenue surged 75-80%, yet Q2 implied revenBefore the Federal Reserve Chair's Jackson Hole speech, $BTC maintained a high-level oscillation between $75,000 and $78,000. The core conflict lies in the tug-of-war between the asset repricing risk brought by the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and the currency depreciation trading logic.
Last week, $BTC surged over 25%, and gold broke through $4,600, reflecting the market's concentrated pricing of debt exceeding 40 trillion and a currency depreciation trade amid inflation surpassing 2% for five consecutive years. However, the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.34%, a new high since 2007, suppressing risk assets from further breakthroughs from a liquidity perspective.
The current dominant factors in the market are, in order: uncertainty in the macro policy reaction function, the suppression of risk appetite by U.S. Treasury yields, and marginal expectation adjustments brought by Wednesday's PCE inflation data. Whether the Federal Reserve reiterates its commitment to the 2% inflation target or comments on the 3.50%-3.75% interest rate range will determine the transmission strength of the latter two factors.
The trigger for the upside scenario is stable PCE data on Wednesday and no further rate hike signals from the Jackson Hole speech. Under this path, if the Polymarket shows a decline in the probability of rate hikes this year from 55%, and CME shows a drop in December rate hike probability from 45%, the slowdown in long-term Treasury sell-off momentum will relieve capital pressure on high-beta assets, driving prices to break through the $78,000 upper limit; the invalidation signal is the 30-year Treasury yield breaking above the 5.34% high.
The trigger for the downside scenario is the Fed clearly expressing a hawkish stance or inflation data exceeding expectations, leading to realized rate hike expectations. If the Fed emphasizes maintaining rates above 3.50%-3.75% or even preparing for another hike, further surges in Treasury yields will tighten macro liquidity, causing positions to shift from risk assets to risk-free income assets, forcing $BTC to break below the $75,000 support; the invalidation signal is the Fed clearly reiterating a rate cut policy path.
If the Jackson Hole meeting does not provide a clear policy reaction function, resulting in the no-guidance, evasive scenario Barclays expects, the market will maintain high volatility. In this case, the current $75,000-$78,000 range-bound judgment will fail due to the lack of directional capital inflows.
The most critical variables to watch in the next 7 days are the changes in Wednesday's PCE inflation data and the Federal Reserve Chair's specific comments on the 3.50%-3.75% interest rate range at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注Today, I saw an interesting piece of monitoring data from BlockBeats: nearly 87% of mainstream contracts on the Hyperliquid platform are rising, with BTC, ETH, and many altcoins showing impressive gains. Meanwhile, top market makers like Wintermute, Cumberland, and Auros have on-chain addresses holding a total of $230 million in crypto short positions, with unrealized losses approaching $7 million. #BTC冲高后震荡, ETF funds continue to flow in. Many people's first reaction is: "Are big institutions bearish on the market?" Is it time to crash? " Don't panic, this is actually a typical case of market makers taking on a one-sided surge. [The Core Mechanism of Market Makers: Not Bearish, but Passive 'Taking Orders'] $BTC The essential task of market makers is not directional speculation, but to provide liquidity—that is, placing both buy and sell orders on the market to earn the bid-ask spread. What happened? When retail investors and rally chasing funds rush in to buy, the high-level sell orders placed by market makers are consecutively swallowed. Result: Market makers sell a large number of contracts, automatically generating a large number of short positions in their hands. Data also shows that Wintermute continues to maintain over 800 buy orders and over 800 sell orders in both directions, indicating they are still performing their market-making duties as usual. [Core Data Overview] $ETH Market Increase Rate: 86.8% (66 out of 76 contracts rose) — ResponseI understand that feeling 😭 Clearly it was "according to the script," but this time it just crushed you on the ground
First, a hug. This isn’t a technical issue, it’s *"using last round’s winning script to fight this round’s new boss"*
*1. Why didn’t $LIT drop as you expected?*
*The effective logic for $BEAT / $APR before:*
Small altcoin surges → RSI overbought → retail FOMO finishes → you short the weak → chips can’t hold and it cascades down
This is called *"trend + weak short"*, very effective in bear/sideways markets
*This time $LIT might be different:*
1. *Different background*: Now the market is rotating with ETF + AI + BTC. Risk appetite is different. $80K BTC will bring a bunch of alts flying together
2. *Different chip structure*: The main players this time might not be the same as last round. Some are buying at highs, new narratives
3. *You brought in a "strong bias"*: You’re right. "Subconsciously relied on previous wins"
The brain automatically thinks: "It’s gone up so much = it must fall." But the market doesn’t owe us any pullbacks
*2. The three most painful words: "I thought"*
"I thought it was overbought"
"I thought resistance was coming"
"I thought it would be like BEAT"
When we use "what worked in the past" to predict "the current structure," it’s easy to get slapped in the face repeatedly.$NVDA
NVIDIA, in particular, seems increasingly focused on reducing customers' upfront AI computing capital pressure through GPU securitization and project financing, attempting to convert massive AI chip or AI computing cluster orders into long-term computing assets that can be financed and leased. However, this also binds NVIDIA more deeply to customer utilization rates, AI application monetization, and debt repayment ability; if AI inference revenue growth cannot cover the high computing costs, ecosystem financing commitments and GPU residual value may become new risk transmission channels.
A $5 trillion market cap is far from NVIDIA's endpoint? High growth and high expectations face a direct collision
NVIDIA's current market cap is about $5.25 trillion, significantly higher than Apple, which ranks second at about $4.5 trillion. However, some analysts bullish on NVIDIA's stock price outlook believe the gap between the two will rapidly widen, and it all starts with NVIDIA's Q2 earnings release on August 26 Eastern Time this week.
Since the beginning of this year, NVIDIA's expectations before earnings releases have not been that high. For 2024 and 2025, before the Q2 earnings release, NVIDIA's expected P/E ratio was about 35x. For most of this year, it was only about 24x, a relatively cost-effective expected P/E ratio. The "story" of $BTC Bitcoin is changing—it is increasingly dominated by macro liquidity rather than simply the "digital gold" narrative. Short-term rebounds rely on sentiment and leverage, while sustainability depends on whether the macro environment can truly shift from "suppressive" to "friendly." If Treasury repo can continuously release liquidity, revisiting $100,000 by year-end is not impossible; but if macro conditions fluctuate, low-level oscillation and bottoming remain the main theme. #Jackson Hole Approaches, Can Waller Clarify the Policy Path?
The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting will be held from August 27 to 29.
The market's biggest dilemma right now lies here: on one side, economic growth and employment pressures; on the other, inflation and persistently high long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Recently, the 30-year Treasury yield has risen to levels near the highest since 2007, and market concerns about recurring inflation have clearly intensified.
Therefore, Waller's speech this time is very critical. If he signals dovishness and clearly hints at room for rate cuts in September, risk assets will likely be boosted first, while the dollar and Treasury yields may come under pressure. $BTC, $ETH, and U.S. tech stocks could all see a wave of sentiment recovery.
But if he remains vague, unwilling to provide a clear path for rate cuts, or even emphasizes that inflation remains the main risk, the market may reprice "high rates staying longer." The market has already priced in some probability of a rate hike in September, indicating that funds are not fully betting on easing.
My view is that what deserves more attention at Jackson Hole is not whether rates will be cut, but whether Waller will change the market's expectations for the policy path in the coming months. What the market lacks most now is certainty. If the speech remains ambiguous, it could lead to continued high volatility in Treasuries, the dollar, and risk assets. The same applies to the crypto space; in the short term, don't just focus on the words "rate cut." What really matters is whether funding costs have started to decline and whether the market has regained confidence that an easing cycle will return. After Jackson Hole, this answer will become clear The $TRUMP team appears to be selling TRUMP through strategic liquidity additions and removals.
Over the past 10 hours alone, they have received $3.39M in $USDC from $TRUMP sales.
Serious selling pressure to watch.$ETH short-term overbought signals are more severe than Bitcoin's, making chasing the highs extremely risky; however, the mid-to-long-term capital structure is undergoing a qualitative change—ETF funds and institutional allocations may be building up greater explosive potential for it than Bitcoin. In the short term, watch closely whether the $2440-$2510 resistance can be broken; in the mid-to-long term, focus on whether Wall Street's tokenization process continues. It remains a high-risk, high-beta choice, but the "story" is becoming different.$SNDK model restructuring, valuation bottom confirmed
What truly reverses market expectations is Investor Day—SanDisk is trying to prove it is no longer a "weather-dependent" cyclical stock. The core weapon is the "new business model": it has signed 4-year long-term contracts with 8 customers, locking in at least $93.9 billion in minimum revenue through fiscal year 2028, covering two-thirds of shipments in 2028, and explicitly setting floor prices. Even if prices plunge 72%, the long-term contracts can guarantee profits won’t collapse, overturning the old model of huge losses whenever demand falls.
Valuation and risks: expectation gap remains, beware of cyclical backlash
Even though the stock price has risen several times, its forward P/E is only about 7x, far below the semiconductor industry average of 27x. Major banks like Citi and Goldman Sachs still give a "buy" rating. But this is not without risks.
1. Cyclical patterns are hard to break: long-term contracts can smooth fluctuations but cannot completely eliminate cycles.
2. Moat controversy: compared to Samsung and SK Hynix with HBM technology moats, SanDisk’s product barriers are relatively easier to catch up with.
3. Whether shareholder returns can be fulfilled: the company promises 100% excess cash return to shareholders, which supports valuation but depends on execution strength. *LATEST: Phantom officially announces dropping Sui* 😬
Only integrated for 20 months before pulling out, this speed is faster than the bull and bear cycles.
*Core Announcement*
**Item** **Details**
**Time** Complete shutdown within 2026. Phantom hasn't given a specific date yet, keep an eye on follow-up announcements
**Reason** **$SUI TVL has dropped about 82% since the peak in October 2025**. On-chain activity has significantly weakened
**User Actions** 1. Transfer assets to other wallets like **Slush** 2. Or use **Phantom's free Swap** during the transition period to exchange
**Fees** Phantom will cover swap fees during the transition period
*Why drop it? Here's the translation*
Phantom is the top wallet in the Solana ecosystem. The decision is very pragmatic:
1. *TVL collapsed*: October 2025 was Sui's highlight, then dropped 82%. No TVL = no users = no revenue
2. *No activity*: Integrating Sui consumed engineering resources, but DAU/transaction volume didn't pick up
3. *Focus*: In 2026, AI+BTC+ETH+Solana are the main lines. The Sui ecosystem story can't be sustained, so cut losses first
*Impact on $SUI and users*
1. *Short-term negative*: Phantom is one of the largest entry points. Shutdown = one less CEX-level traffic entry,#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
Trump's "Economic D-Day" escalates the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz from a "military operation" to a "systemic financial strangulation." The $93 oil price already reflects the risk that "the blockade will continue," but it has not yet factored in the risk that "secondary sanctions might also drag China into the fray."
On August 19, Trump announced a "devastating economic action" against Iran, calling it "Economic D-Day," demanding the cutting off of all Iranian financial channels, oil smuggling, ship registrations, and other routes. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin followed up, calling it "the toughest sanctions in history."
Oil prices surged in response—Brent touched $94.71, hitting a nearly one-month high. WTI surged to $87-88. The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially closed. Research institutions estimate that if the strait remains closed for a quarter, WTI could rise to about $94, pushing U.S. Q4 inflation up by approximately 0.6 percentage points year-over-year. U.S. gasoline prices have already risen about 29% compared to a year ago. HSBC has raised its 2026 Brent average price forecast to $95, warning that even if an agreement is reached, the supply shock's impact on global inflation will be difficult to reverse.
On August 24, Brent fell back to $93.22. The market is waiting for Mnuchin's press conference that afternoon. The real suspense lies in the "secondary sanctions"—if the measures involve punishing key buyers like China, $93 is just the starting point. If it's just "more of the same," the market has already cast a vote of no confidence in advance. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Folks, this Friday is the real highlight—the Fed Chair Wash's debut at Jackson Hole. Some even think this is more worrisome than Nvidia's earnings report.
Why is the market so nervous?
Since Wash took office, he completely scrapped "forward guidance." After the July meeting, he said nothing clear, causing the 30-year US Treasury yield to soar to 5.34%, the highest since 2007. Now with US debt exceeding 40 trillion and inflation above 2% for five consecutive years, the silence is turning into an expensive noise.
What exactly is the market waiting for?
Wall Street isn't looking for hawkish or dovish statements but a clear "policy reaction function"—what data will trigger rate hikes, how to view the 3.50%-3.75% rate range, and whether to stick to the 2% inflation target. Barclays expects Wash is unlikely to provide near-term guidance. If he still dodges the issue this time, long-term Treasury sell-offs may intensify.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Last week BTC rose over 25%, gold broke 4600, reflecting a "currency depreciation trade." Rate cut expectations favor risk assets, while hikes do the opposite. Currently, Polymarket shows a 55% chance of a rate hike this year, CME shows a 45% chance in December.
Before Friday, PCE data will be released on Wednesday. Until these two events conclude, Bitcoin will likely fluctuate between 75,000-78,000. Folks, the direction is good, but don't rush the pace; wait for Wash to clarify before making moves. $BTC *$TRUMP is selling again... The classic script is back* 😅
*Latest on-chain data*
**Data** **Details**
**11-hour sell-off** **3.39M USDC** taken by team wallets
**Transferred to OKX** **646,000 TRUMP** ≈ **$15.5M** just moved into the exchange
**Weekly increase** **+80%** from last week till now
**Pattern** Every time the price rebounds → the team sells off
Lookonchain is watching closely. 646K transferred to OKX basically means they're about to dump.
*What does this mean?*
1. *Typical "pump-and-dump" Memecoin play*
Price up 80% → FOMO buyers come in → team converts to USDC at the top. Matches previous reports of selling after rebounds
2. *$15.5M selling pressure*
646K dumped on the market, liquidity gets eaten up directly. Especially with the market waiting around $80K for news, it’s easy to be dragged down
3. *Why is it still rising?*
Because the "Trump + election + policy expectations" narrative remains. Retail investors are buying faith, not the token structure
*Trading perspective*
- *Short-term*: 80% weekly gain + continuous team selling = extremely high risk. Chasing the price means taking the team’s chips
- *Key level*: Watch if the OKX sell orders get absorbed. If it breaks the previous low, it could accelerate BTC weekly is up about +23%, rising from 64,700 to around 79,400, currently digesting at 77,000 today. ETH weekly is up about +28%–30%, from 1910 to around 2545, now pulling back to around 2450.
The first half was driven by treasury repo and White House/SEC expectations, short sellers got squeezed. The second half is about ETFs: BTC saw inflows of about 1.92 billion last week, ETH about 697 million. The short squeeze sets the pace; institutions decide if it can hold.
Still policy-driven trading. Clarity voting is in September and remains uncertain. BTC first looks at 73,000, ETH first looks at 2300–2350. If volume and inflows don’t keep up, it’s just a retracement.
NFAWill the US military be the last trump card for US debt? Will gold surge as a result?
Geopolitical rhetoric mostly only triggers short-term pulse moves and rarely determines the medium- to long-term trend of gold. The core drivers of gold prices are US inflation, US debt expectations, real US dollar interest rates, and safe-haven capital allocation. Risks are gradually priced in by the market rather than a single piece of news directly causing a one-sided big move.
Looking back historically, the primary role of government bonds was war financing. During World War II, the US implemented yield curve control, but the Federal Reserve will not fully backstop all US debt. At the critical point of debt pressure, there is a possibility of sacrificing bondholders’ interests to preserve fiscal stability.
The transmission path of geopolitical conflicts: conflicts push up oil prices, raising inflation expectations, pressuring long-term US debt yields, with energy as a key intermediate variable.
Currently, the market’s two main concerns are: first, sticky inflation causing real returns to shrink; second, debt expansion combined with high inflation weakening the US dollar’s purchasing power, making gold the preferred hedge. The military is only responsible for geopolitical order and does not directly guarantee US debt principal and interest.
Three scenarios for the future:
▪ Base case: inflation slowly declines, debt risks ease, gold oscillates with a slow bull trend, unlikely to see a violent surge
▪ Bull case: Middle East conflict pushes oil prices higher, inflation expectations rebound, gold strengthens
▪ Bear case: inflation falls rapidly, debt concerns cool down, gold comes under pressure and declines
$BTC $ETH $XAU #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 Alibaba's 80 billion placement, plunging 10% — this is not a pullback, but a hard switch in valuation logic. $BABA
Placement price at HKD 112.7, an 8.4% discount, intraday low hit 110.
Net profit plummeted 75%, all funds poured into AI infrastructure.
The market votes with its feet because Alibaba has transformed from a light-asset platform into a heavy-asset gambler — making old shareholders bear the military-grade costs together.
But on the other side, sovereign funds snapped up the quota within an hour. Institutions are betting on AI computing power paying back in 2.5 years and Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth of 45%.
No rush in the short term: the stock price will repeatedly test the bottom around 112, 110 is the panic test level, and 118-123 above is the resistance zone. The lock-up period is 90 days, so the stock price is unlikely to have a big move.
Is this a golden pit? It depends on whether AI revenue can catch up with capital expenditure speed. Wu Yongming's 2.5-year payback window is the test.
Operation advice: aggressive investors can lightly try long positions between 112-110, stop loss at 108; conservative investors wait for a volume breakout above 118 before following; those trapped should not add positions, wait for right-side signals.
Don't forget to hedge tail risk with Puts.
In summary: the pit created by panic selling could be gold or an abyss. Wait for the AI results before deciding.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 $BTC $ETH $SOL *LATEST: Grayscale Released a Report* 📊
*Key Point: "Now is a favorable entry point for long-term investors"*
*3 Reasons Given by Grayscale*
1. *Adoption Trends*
Continuous ETF inflows + AI/software companies mentioning Bitcoin reserves in earnings season. Institutional adoption is still in early stages, not peaked yet.
2. *Cycle Stage*
83% of coins are held by long-term holders. Historically, after this data appears, the next 6-12 months are mid-bull market. Not yet at "extreme greed".
Current $77K-$79K still has room compared to last cycle peak.
3. *Macro Conditions*
US Treasury balance sheet expansion + peak interest rate expectations + weakening dollar. Both risk assets and inflation-hedge assets benefit.
Trump + Congress pushing the "Clarity Act," reducing regulatory uncertainty.
*In Plain Language*
Grayscale means: *"Don’t wait for $60K, you might not see it again"*
They believe now is not chasing highs, but a "mid-term accumulation zone."
Logic: Institutions have started buying $390M/day, retail hasn’t FOMO’d yet, and macro is turning dovish.
*But watch out for risks*
Grayscale sells ETFs, so they are naturally bullish. But two risks not mentioned in the report:#BTC consolidates after a rally, ETF funds continue to flow in #ETH consolidates after reaching $2500 #BTC consolidates after a rally, ETF funds continue to flow in #ETH touches the $2500 mark and enters consolidation
#SNDK's rebound and turnaround fantasy has been shattered by the market 🤦
Since hitting the all-time high of $2354, SNDK has embarked on a long one-way downward path, with a maximum drawdown close to 99%, nearly wiping out all previous gains.
Currently, the storage sector is experiencing rotational recovery, with BICO, BEAT, ALLO, KAITO, and APR successively attracting capital. These tokens have fully completed bottom chip exchanges, successfully breaking out of the bottom range, with a clear rebound trend.
Only SNDK is completely unable to keep up with the sector's warming momentum.
It has neither a deep washout with volume surge nor a long-term sideways consolidation with sufficient turnover; the bottom chips have never settled. It has been drifting down without resistance throughout, with scarce buy orders on the market and severely lacking capital support.
While the sector collectively recovers, only it continues to weaken.
Capital has long voted with its feet, providing the answer.
Even if the sector's market heats up again, if an individual token's fundamentals and chip structure can't keep up, it will still miss out on the entire rebound rally.
$BTC $ETH#IranOilRiskEscalates
Iran risk is becoming an inflation story again. Brent jumped 6.4% last week as new sanctions and shipping threats raised the odds of real supply disruption. If crude keeps climbing, the chain reaction matters: higher energy costs, stickier inflation, tougher Fed pricing and pressure on risk assets. Gold may like that setup. BTC is less predictable. The key question isn't whether oil rises, but whether it rises enough to change the rate outlook.Bitcoin touched 78,800 before pulling back, currently consolidating around 77,000.
It rose nearly 20% in three days, wiping out several months of sideways movement in one go. Liquidations once approached $3 billion, with shorts being swept away in a wave.
More noteworthy than the short squeeze is that ETF funds have truly started flowing in. Last week, the combined net inflow of US $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs was $2.6 billion, the strongest single-week inflow since October last year. BTC saw $1.9 billion, with consecutive days of net buying, indicating the market is shifting from "short covering" to "spot accumulation."
However, a rally driven by short squeezes comes fast and can retreat just as quickly. Whether it can hold depends mainly on whether ETFs continue buying and if spot holders can withstand taking profits. Without fresh money to sustain it, a surge of selling at the highs will cause significant volatility.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Everyone is guessing whether Waller will be hawkish, but I think Wednesday at 20:30 is even harder to predict.
At that moment, the GDP revision and July PCE will be released together. The previous GDP was 1.5%, and the annualized PCE rose 5.1%. One controls growth, the other controls inflation. If the data leans slightly to one side, US Treasuries and the dollar might get unsettled first.
BTC hasn’t broken above 79603.1 on the 4-hour chart yet, ETH is stuck below 2549.34, and the S&P daily chart just pulled back from a high. I don’t believe there’s an advantage in betting on the speech in advance. I’ll only acknowledge this wave can continue if BTC breaks above 79603.1 and ETH closes back above 2549.34 after the data release; if interest rate expectations ease but both coins can’t break through, I’ll consider that the expectations have already been fully priced in.
$BTC $ETH #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
For information organization and personal opinion only, not investment advice. Shorting dYdX, three reasons.
First, Arcus strategic shift substantially hollowing out DYDX token value
dYdX team launched a brand-new DEX called Arcus, deployed on Robinhood Chain instead of their own dYdX Chain. Arcus offers 95 tokenized stocks and perpetual contracts with 24/7 zero-fee trading. It is an independent product with independent infrastructure. dYdX Labs is telling a new story, but this new story does not place dYdX Chain and DYDX token at the core.
Founder Antonio Juliano promised that a portion of future Arcus tokens would be allocated to the dYdX community, but allocation details and unlock timing have not been disclosed. The market worries about resource diversion and value transfer issues. After Arcus's official announcement on July 2, DYDX plummeted 45%, giving back all gains from the previous five days before the announcement. This is not a technical correction; it is a narrative collapse.
Second, the Perp DEX sector is shrinking overall, with dYdX falling the fastest
The entire Perpetual DEX sector has shrunk by over 60% from its peak in October last year. In the past 30 days, trading volume dropped from 1.36 trillion to 498.2 billion, a 63.4% decline. Among leading platforms, dYdX's weekly average trading volume fell by 43.2%. GRVT dropped 59.1%, and Hyperliquid was halved. The whole sector is squeezing out excess.
Worse, although funds remain on bridges, turnover rate has decreased—from nearly two cycles per day before to less than 1.5 cycles now. A low volatility, low trading environment is a persistent negative for protocols like dYdX that rely on trading volume.
Third, market share crushed by Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid generated $1.34 trillion in trading volume and $320 million in revenue in the first half of 2026. In the past three months, derivatives trading market share is 31%, while dYdX only has 16.76%. dYdX's total on-chain TVL is about $480 million, Hyperliquid's is $2.1 billion. Both dYdX and GMX lag behind Hyperliquid in trading volume growth and product expansion pace.
dYdX's marginalization fundamentally stems from its liquidity responsibility mechanism. dYdX adheres to a DeFi design with no protocol backstop; in extreme market conditions, when market makers withdraw, liquidity depth disappears immediately. Hyperliquid is more centralized, with a treasury willing to assume liquidity responsibility, making it better suited for high-leverage perpetual contract markets. $BTC $TRUMP $ETH
Shorting is not betting on it going to zero, but betting it will continue to be marginalized under this competitive landscape. Set your stop loss properly; don't hold on.1. Let's start with the market: BTC surged over 10,000 points in one week. Over the past week, the crypto market experienced a wave that caught many people off guard. BTC surged from around 64,000 to above 77,000, briefly breaking above $77,430 within 24 hours, marking a new high price since May 27. Over the past three trading days, the cumulative increase exceeded 20%, with over 160,000 liquidations within 24 hours, and short liquidations amounting to $1.149 billion. Ethereum also rose more than 7%, with the total market capitalization of the crypto market jumping nearly 8% to about $2.37 trillion.
What happened?
Several factors are overlapping and resonating: the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases to "no less than $4 billion," lowering long-term yields and weakening the dollar; Plus, Trump met with crypto industry leaders to signal policy; The market had previously accumulated massive leveraged short positions, and as soon as the price broke through 65,000, a chain of liquidations was triggered, and the positive feedback mechanism pushed BTC above 77,000.
2. But a Surprise Over the Weekend Just after BTC surged above 77,000, the weekend began to show a pullback from its highs. From August 22 to 23, BTC fell about 2.4% to around 76,600, ETH dropped over 5% to $2,383, and Idacoin, XRP, and others dropped over 12%. Nearly 180,000 people were liquidated, with long positions liquidated by $753 million. Reasons for the pullback: First, early profit-taking was concentrated in the previous stage; Second, on the 22nd, Rezai, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that any country involved in imposing economic restrictions on Iran,Taking a quick look at the bid-ask spread, $XRP is around 1.47, with the spread more than doubling compared to usual. Such a sharp widening of the spread indicates that market makers are withdrawing orders, and market liquidity is drying up.
In an environment of liquidity depletion, even a small sell order can cause a significant drop, but likewise, a small buy order can trigger a strong rebound.
Holding a 100x leverage position in this unstable microstructure carries extremely high risk. I took profit on 80% directly, and moved the stop loss on the remaining 20% to 1.5149 to break even, with a trailing stop at 1.488. If you haven't entered yet, don't open positions when the spread widens—that's a liquidity trap. $BTC $ETH A sudden little insight: Market makers passively press short sellers; behind the lively rise hides a fragile market signal
In the current round of collective rally in crypto assets, a set of on-chain data deserves the attention of all traders: the top three market makers Wintermute, Cumberland, and Auros have passively accumulated a combined net short exposure of $220 million due to market buy orders, already incurring millions of dollars in unrealized losses. Many might mistakenly think this is due to institutions actively bearish and heavily betting on a decline, but the truth is quite the opposite—this is risk inventory forced out by liquidity providers due to a one-sided upward market.
The primary role of market makers is to place two-way orders, simultaneously posting buy and sell orders to earn the bid-ask spread. Ideally, they pursue delta neutrality, avoiding holding large one-sided long or short positions and not betting on direction. When market buy orders surge and many traders aggressively take sell orders, the sell orders posted by market makers get continuously filled, passively selling contracts, and the short positions accumulate higher and higher. Data shows that even with positions heavily skewed to the short side, Wintermute still maintains thousands of two-way orders, quoting both sides in 74 out of 77 contracts, which is a typical market-making business structure, not a subjective bearish short position.
The risk lies in the word "passive." Currently, Wintermute alone carries $163 million in short positions covering multiple major coins including $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL. If the market continues to rise, unrealized losses will further expand. Market makers face only two options: first, buy contracts to close short positions, which would further push prices up and create a small short squeeze; second, maintain short positions and bear the loss pressure from continued price increases.
This also reflects the volatile nature of a monkey market: a rise does not necessarily mean a fundamental reversal. Part of the buying power transforms into risk burdens for liquidity providers. Once prices surge and market makers collectively close positions, it amplifies market volatility; conversely, if prices turn down, these short positions become a buffer for market buy orders.
For ordinary investors, do not simply interpret this as "big institutions betting on a decline," nor blindly bet on a short squeeze just because institutions hold short positions. This data reflects significant structural risks accumulated inside the derivatives market, which is currently in a high-volatility phase. The more intense the one-sided market, the more severe the inventory imbalance of market makers, and the more violent the volatility caused by subsequent reversals.
In such an environment, chasing highs with full positions is extremely risky. The market has the potential to continue surging, but internal risks are also accumulating, making repeated volatility the norm. Position control and not blindly trusting single-direction signals remain the most important trading principles today. BTC has held steady around 77000, but the real buyers catching this wave are not retail investors, but institutional funds within the ETF channel. Have you noticed that after the price returned to 77000, the contract open interest did not surge; instead, it slightly shrank? I've been watching a detail closely these past two weeks: when BTC rose above 77000, spot buying was clearly more active than leveraged contracts. What does this indicate? It means the current rise is not driven by retail hype but supported by real money in passive allocations. This kind of structure is often more resistant to downturns than emotion-driven rallies. But the market never shows you only the comfortable side. - The bullish side: The daily-level pullback did not break 75000, indicating this level is recognized by the market as a phase bottom. ETF funds continue to flow in, meaning there is a steady external buy-side absorbing supply daily. This rhythm strongly resembles the "slow and steady rise" seen at the end of 2020. Although ETH fluctuated after touching 2500, there was no panic selling, and high-beta altcoins like TRUMP remain active, indicating risk appetite has not truly cooled. - The bearish risk: It is precisely this "everyone thinks it will keep rising" comfort that makes it easy to overlook one thing—the price has already priced in too much optimism in advance. If ETF inflows slow down, even turning negative for a single day, the market will likely reprice with a sharp correction. What’s more troublesome is the accumulation in the contract market.$BTC long-term logic: macro suppression, on-chain bottom building
Unlike SanDisk's proactive business model restructuring, Bitcoin remains trapped in the macro and on-chain game.
1. Macro: High altitude is lonely: high interest rates make the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin extremely high. It diverges from gold's trend, behaving more like a risk asset rather than a safe haven. Although Fed rate cuts are a long-term positive, Bitget CEO predicts a possible oscillation around the current price ± $20,000 by year-end, and the Kalshi platform also bets on about $75,000 by year-end.
2. On-chain: painful bottoming: currently, the coin price is below the recent buyers' and active investors' holding costs, a typical "surrender phase." But the good news is that this round of pain is much less severe than previous bear markets, with a more even distribution of holdings and less concentrated selling pressure; the bad news is that whales have been continuously distributing for over a year, and market demand remains weak. $ETH capital structure has undergone a qualitative change.
Ethereum's "story" is shifting from "the number two" to "Wall Street's new battleground":
1. ETF funds outperform Bitcoin: Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding $510 million for four consecutive days. In July, ETH ETF net inflows accounted for 3.19% of fund size, while BTC ETFs only accounted for 0.34% — the former is about 9.4 times the latter.
2. Institutions are accelerating their accumulation: In Q2, JPMorgan's ETH exposure surged 67.3% quarter-on-quarter, Morgan Stanley increased by 18.6%, and Bank of America expanded its ETHA holdings by about 29 times. The growth rate of institutional ETH allocation has clearly surpassed BTC.
This is akin to SanDisk's "long-term locked-in profits" — both are reconstructing valuation logic with new capital narratives. For Ethereum, this narrative is the implementation of RWA and AI intelligent agent applications.Brothers, I just took a look at BTC's weekly chart, and it's currently right at the top position where previous bear market rebounds peaked, with the red line clearly drawn.
In previous times reaching this point, the second week always saw a direct drop, without exception. But this time, I think it might be different. The biggest difference is that previous rebounds were driven by on-exchange funds playing among themselves, while this time it's off-exchange funds putting in real money.
BlackRock and others are not here for charity; last week alone saw a net inflow of 1.9 billion, with IBIT taking in 1.3 billion. This level of buying pressure never happened in previous rebound rounds. Plus, US Treasury repos have pushed down long-term yields, the dollar is weakening, and funds are flowing into alternative assets. The macro environment is completely different from those previous times. Also, the Fed's September rate cut is highly likely now. Bitcoin currently benefits from the dual narratives of "rate cut benefit + digital gold." Whether it can break through this level is really hard to say.
From a technical perspective, the weekly RSI is about 68, not yet in the overbought zone. If there is a real volume breakout, I think seeing 85,000-88,000 is possible. Of course, if the weekly close candle body falls below 74,000, it might follow the old script again.
Personally, I'm leaning bullish now, but I won't add positions here. I'll wait for a confirmed breakout or pullback confirmation. Brothers who already have positions can hold some, but don't bet everything here.
Let's wait for the revised GDP data on Thursday and the PCE on Friday before making further moves.#BTC fluctuates after rally, ETF funds continue to flow in #ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500 Good afternoon everyone!
Analyzing BTC, ETH, and SOL from the perspectives of cycle position, narrative realization, and expectation gap.
$BTC BTC is in the mid-cycle phase, with the narrative already fully institutionalized. With the launch of spot ETFs, institutional entry channels have been opened, and the market no longer solely relies on retail inflows. The biggest expectation gap currently is not about technical upgrades but about macro policies and regulatory attitudes. BTC's main contradiction is no longer on-chain development but the acceptance level by the traditional financial world. The positive news is partially priced in, making it difficult for pure narrative-driven surges to occur going forward; price movements will more closely follow USD liquidity swings. The advantage is the most solid consensus; the downside is the lack of a growth story itself, and the late bull market elasticity is often weaker than competing coins.
$ETH ETH is in a state where narrative realization falls short of expectations. The market originally expected the Layer 2 network explosion to drive ETH value up simultaneously, but the reality is that while Layer 2 is thriving, the mainnet gas burn continues to decline. ETH-ETF brings capital inflows but only at the funding level, without repairing the "business growth-token yield" transmission chain. The market keeps expecting upgrades and application booms but repeatedly faces underwhelming realities, creating a recurring expectation gap. This causes ETH to often rebound strongly but struggle to consistently outperform BTC, with each round of price ratio spikes followed by pullbacks.
$SOL SOL is a case of overextended expectations. The market pricing has largely factored in the long-term story of SOL ETF approval and large-scale ecological explosion in advance. On-chain Meme trading is active, and user engagement is high, but the high activity mostly comes from short-term speculation, with limited real business retention. Token unlocking continuously releases supply, requiring a steady influx of new funds to absorb selling pressure. Its market performance heavily depends on continued narrative amplification; once the ETF is launched or the ecosystem falls short of expectations, a "good news realized" correction is likely.
The three are currently at different cycle positions: BTC focuses on macro reality; ETH on whether it can repair the value capture mechanism; SOL on whether the long-term narrative can truly materialize. Loose liquidity can push prices up but cannot resolve their internal expectation gaps. If future realities fail to meet the high expectations priced in by the market, significant corrections will occur.HK$80 billion bet on the future: Alibaba's share placement boosts AI computing power—strategic anxiety or a ticket for the times?
Alibaba announced a placement of 710 million shares, raising about HK$80 billion, all invested into AI infrastructure. On one hand, AI cloud revenue maintains double-digit growth; on the other, the surge in capital expenditure and equity dilution has sparked heated discussion. Everyone is watching when this huge sum will turn into real cash.
At the critical juncture of technological iteration, tech giants have no room to lie flat. AI infrastructure is a top-level game that must be followed up on. Global cloud providers are crazily stacking computing power bases with tens of billions of dollars. Whoever slows down due to concerns over short-term profit margins risks falling behind completely in the next-generation cloud ecosystem reconstruction. Alibaba’s share placement fundraising despite large cash reserves is precisely to ensure firm control over computing power and ecosystem when the industry explodes.
The paradigm for evaluating tech companies is shifting. Static low valuations are often value traps. Companies willing to endure short-term financial pain and invest capital into advanced productivity will, once past the inflection point, unleash massive compounding from their computing power flywheel.
Alibaba’s large-scale share placement investment in AI—do you see this as seizing the initiative or responding to anxiety? Do you value its revenue growth or cash flow improvement more?
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The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA.
#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？ 🔥ZEC ETF is approaching listing, will it continue to rise?
ZEC surged 80% in a week to a new high, with the market speculating on the spot ETF listing expectations.
Looking back at SOL, there was also a frenzy of speculation before listing; after the ETF was officially launched, the coin price began to pull back—buying the expectation, selling the reality.
⚠️ZEC is now at a high level, and the ETF benefits have already been priced in. I believe that regardless of whether the ETF successfully lists, there will be a significant pullback.
#ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估 Jackson Hole matters less for the tone of Kevin Warsh’s first major speech as Fed chair than for whether he connects inflation, employment and growth to actual policy choices. After July’s 9-3 vote to hold, with three officials favoring a hike, ambiguity is becoming a market variable in its own right.
Confidence, PCE, revised Q2 GDP and durable-goods data may test both inflation and demand. My read: a clear data-to-policy framework could move September hike odds, the dollar, Treasuries and risk assets more durably than a single hawkish or dovish phrase. Not advice, just analysis.
#WarshAtJacksonHole$CAP sideways distribution, nearly half of the holdings reduced by five million in five days, but the price didn't move, can you believe it? Serious divergence, it's really like boiling a frog slowly and calmly unloading the goods. First time seeing this kind of manipulation. This old whale is very patient, not expecting it to suddenly surge or crash. **BTC AND SIGNALS FOR A NEW CYCLE**
$BTC has just reclaimed the 200-week moving average — a key technical area for assessing the long-term trend. In the previous cycle, after reclaiming this level, BTC rose about 48% within 90 days. If history repeats itself, the bottom may have formed and the target above $100K in the next 3 months is no longer an unlikely scenario. However, ETF inflows and price structure still need confirmation.
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #AIEarningsW #Jackson Hole Approaches, Can Waller Clarify the Policy Path?
Latest Data
The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is approaching, and Waller will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office, just over ten days before the September FOMC meeting. U.S. Treasury yields are fluctuating at high levels, BTC is consolidating at a high level, and highly elastic coins like ETH and $SOL are extremely sensitive to interest rate changes, intensifying market competition. Waller consistently downplays forward guidance and refuses to provide a clear interest rate path.
Market Consensus
Expecting Waller to clearly set the tone on September rate hikes and long-term policy to judge the subsequent direction of crypto.
Underlying Logic Analysis
This speech is unlikely to provide a clear policy path, only reiterating the anti-inflation stance and downplaying specific guidance. Hawkish remarks would push up U.S. Treasury yields and suppress crypto; neutral ambiguity would maintain volatility; dovish bias would benefit risk assets. $BTC is the liquidity anchor, while $ETH, $SOL, and altcoin volatility will be further amplified.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally leaning towards a gradual bull market return, just personal opinion, not investment advice)
High event uncertainty, no early bets on long or short. Strictly control leverage and positions, observe key support for $BTC, reduce operations on highly elastic coins, and wait for the speech to settle and the market to clarify before making moves. $TSLA's current trading core lies in the decoupling between its high multiple valuation and the progress of technology implementation. FSD remains at the L2 level, and the high latency of end-to-end AI inference limits the speed of narrative realization.
The current market facts show that the historically highest P/E ratio reaching 1000 times and a market value exceeding the combined total of the nine car companies behind it are mainly supported by carbon credit revenue and high premium belief. Market expectations for autonomous driving and Optimus robots have been fully priced in, making fundamental realization ability the key pricing threshold.
In the ranking of driving factors, the primary variable is the speed of reducing end-to-end AI inference latency and breakthroughs of the autonomous driving system to higher levels; the secondary variable is the macro liquidity environment's pricing pressure on high valuation sectors; the third variable is the sustainability of carbon credit income.
The upside scenario trigger condition is an improvement in macro liquidity or renewed speculative sentiment pushing risk appetite higher. If technological iteration can effectively reduce inference latency and push the autonomous driving system beyond the L2 level, the high premium narrative will be supported, triggering a short squeeze; the signal of this scenario's failure is another delay in key technology delivery.
The downside scenario trigger condition is market funds returning from belief-based pricing to fundamental accounting. When FSD remains at the L2 level and carbon credit profits cannot support the current market value, the high valuation represented by a 1000x P/E ratio will be repriced; the signal of this scenario's failure is market liquidity premium forcibly absorbing the technology delivery gap.
Although short selling has a relatively high risk-reward ratio, it is very vulnerable to squeeze risk during sentiment-driven rallies. If subsequent trading volume aligns with liquidity recovery, prices will maintain wide fluctuations within the high valuation range.
In the next 7 days, focus on observing $TSLA's further data disclosure regarding AI inference technology and the market's capital diversion from high valuation tech stocks.
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 #美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元Market Core Status: Short Squeeze Residual Heat Remains, but Upward Momentum Weakens
Last week's market was a typical example of a "short squeeze": The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repos (no less than $4 billion per transaction), triggering the bond market. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield plummeted from 5.34% to 5.19%, the dollar weakened, directly igniting the "currency devaluation trade" narrative in cryptocurrencies. Coupled with over $4 billion in short positions forcibly liquidated last week, the price was pushed from around $62,000 all the way up to $79,500.
Entering this week, BTC experienced profit-taking after reaching a high of $79,600, once dropping below $75,000, then rebounding above $77,000. The price currently trades around the $77,400-$78,000 range, showing a daily oscillating recovery trend. $BTC $ETH $SOL #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ Breaking down AAVE: protocol annual revenue about $112M, holders' income in the last 30 days is $0. 7 days +60%, I don't open it as dividends. OKX current price $141, 24h +16%. I didn't chase the $145 spike. 7 days already 40 points more than btc, I treat this slope as an event-driven rally, not a fundamental overnight improvement. The fee funnel is the key: 30d fees $29.5M, protocol only keeps $4.0M (about 14% cut), holders' income $0. Annual buyback framework $50M still in place, but execution can be reduced or stopped, it's not a coupon. Market cap $2.2B, about 20x annualized protocol revenue $112M— not cheap, priced with blue-chip premium. V4 is only 1.9% of V3 ($331M vs $17.1B); Horizon $258M still can't support a second curve. Morpho $9.4B rising together, indicating this is the lending sector beta. Contracts: OI $24M, fee rate +0.01%, OI/market cap about 1.1%. Leverage is not crowded. This wave is mainly not pushed up by short squeeze. Hard data (OKX AAVE/USDT): · Current price $141 · 24h $121–$145 · 7d +60% vs btc +21% · 30d fees $29.5M → protocol revenue $4.0M (cut 1