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#Employment data is being released intensively, and the Wash policy stance is being tested. The real hidden risk is not the data itself, but how the market interprets the data.
This week, employment data will be released intensively. JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, non-farm payrolls—all at once. July's non-farm payrolls have already declined by 23,000, and May and June were revised down by 103,000, indicating that hiring is indeed cooling down.
But the trouble is, Wash just took a hawkish stance at Jackson Hole. He said inflation is far above 2%, financial conditions are not tight enough, and the labor market is close to full employment. Every point he made points in the same direction—rate hikes. The probability of a rate hike in September has already risen from 35% to nearly 60%.
This creates a typical logical squeeze:
Good employment data means the economy is overheating, giving Wash reason to raise rates, causing BTC to fall. Poor employment data means the economy is cooling, so expectations for rate cuts should rise, but Wash said inflation is still too high and financial conditions are not tight enough. Poor data might instead reinforce his judgment that "tightening must be maintained," so BTC still falls.
July's non-farm payrolls have already shown negative growth, and May and June were revised down. The economy is indeed slowing, but Wash has locked in the inflation target. If employment data is so poor that the market starts pricing in a "recession," then it's not a rate hike issue but a problem of broad pressure on risk assets.
This week's data cannot be ignored. Before the non-farm payrolls are released, watch more and act less. If it holds, it holds; if it doesn't, wait for clearer data before making moves. $BTC $ETH $SOL @OKX星球 🔥With the sound of cannon fire, crude oil surged, but Bitcoin dropped?
🇺🇸Last night, the US military bombed Iran's Larak Island, and Iran retaliated with missiles targeting US bases. Brent crude broke through $90 this morning, WTI rose over 2%. Traditional safe-haven assets gold and silver surged then retreated, US stock futures fell across the board, and Bitcoin dropped nearly 0.7% in 4 hours after breaking 78,000.
⛑Geopolitical conflict + soaring oil prices = rebound in inflation expectations, with the probability of a Fed rate hike in September soaring to 56.9%. The expectation of tightening liquidity hits hard, and Bitcoin, this "digital gold," can only temporarily take the hit as a risk asset.
💰If 77,000 doesn't hold, the downside space will open up. This time, are you buying the dip or waiting?This morning's market move sent chills down my spine.
The US military attacked Iran's rocket launchers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases. As soon as the news of the geopolitical conflict broke, the crypto market plunged.
$BTC directly fell below $78,000, hitting a low of $77,000, currently around $77,399, down 1.7% in the last hour. In the past 24 hours, BTC long liquidations totaled $53.91 million, while short liquidations were $32.92 million. The amount liquidated on longs is 1.6 times that of shorts, indicating the market was previously optimistic on Bitcoin with many leveraged longs.
$ETH fell below $2,400, currently at $2,398, dropping 2.76% in the last hour—1 full percentage point more than Bitcoin. The liquidation data tells the story: in the past 24 hours, ETH long liquidations reached $73.34 million, shorts $51.47 million. ETH long liquidations exceed BTC by nearly $20 million, and short liquidations are also significantly higher than BTC. This shows that leveraged positions on Ethereum are denser, with more funds betting on a rebound, causing more severe liquidations when prices fall. The largest single liquidation occurred on Aster-ETH, wiping out $6.12 million instantly.
Once the gunfire in Hormuz sounded → oil prices surged past $90 → inflation expectations heated up → September rate hike odds soared to 57% → interest-free assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum were crushed to the ground.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Is the Federal Reserve setting a FOMO trap?
$BTC holds around $78K, while $ETH is weaker, making this rebound far from convincing. After the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Walsh emphasized that inflation risks remain, raising expectations for a rate hike in September.
Currently, the biggest catalysts are employment → PCE → Fed expectations → Treasury yields → ETF fund flows. If these factors align, $BTC may hold $78K, and $ETH could also rebound. If they turn unfavorable for crypto, "FOMO then dump" could become the market's most painful trap.$ZORA Originally planned to cut losses and sacrifice, but the sacrifice didn't happen, and the meat cooked itself.
When the bottom was grinding in the market, ZORA retraced to 0.007604 without breaking the level. I said at the time that someone was buying below, don't get shaken off the ride. Before going to bed last night, I checked the volume again; funds quietly entered and didn't run away.
Now at 0.009653, +268.41%, this piece of meat is delicious, those on board should be waking up smiling.
Take profits on the big portion first, securing 75%. Move the stop loss on the remaining 25% to the cost price, letting the profit run. Don't be greedy for the last bite.
The market waits to be timed, profits come from holding.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: don't chase the highs, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify you first. The market doesn't lack opportunities, it lacks patience.
$ADA $DOGE Today, keep the stop loss for the long position on $SNDK and wait for the direction to be chosen. Just wait at this position for $SNDK. Don't have too heavy a position.
With $BTC, $ETH, and gold pulling back, there has to be a place for capital to go. It’s likely another wave of tech stocks in the short term. Wait for other adjustments, then continue the rally. $SOL just surged sharply from $73 to $105-110. Many people have already started calling it a breakout, but I actually think—chasing the high now might not be a good position.
The speed of this rise is indeed fierce, but the short-term is clearly overheated. RSI has repeatedly shot above 80, and the upward momentum of MACD is also starting to slow down. After a rapid price surge, if next week sees a "shakeout" wave, pulling back to $101-99, or even lower, I wouldn’t be surprised at all.
JOLTS job openings data on September 1 and non-farm payroll data on September 4 will be released. If the data remains strong, the market might worry again that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer, causing U.S. Treasury yields to rise and risk assets to come under pressure.
As a typical high Beta asset, when BTC drops 1%, SOL often amplifies the volatility to 1.5-2 times.
Looking at the futures market, SOL’s open interest remains relatively high, with long positions clearly crowded. Once BTC experiences a pullback, it’s easy to trigger long stop losses, even causing a chain liquidation.
On the fundamentals side, although SOL hasn’t experienced a full outage recently, the concentration of network infrastructure still deserves attention. A routing failure at a single custodian in mid-August caused nearly 29% of staked tokens to go offline briefly, which is not far from risking impact on final confirmations.
Coming up are the rent mechanism adjustment and the activation of Transaction V1 on September 9.
#DailyOrbit A historical comparison that makes all veteran traders tremble: According to Bloomberg's calculations, measured by the immediate rise in the two-year US Treasury yield, Waller's Jackson Hole speech this time might be the most hawkish since 2009. The market reaction even surpassed Powell's Jackson Hole speeches in 2022 and 2023. Shortly after taking office, Waller's first appearance at Jackson Hole directly branded himself as "hawkish." Why does a Federal Reserve chairman's "debut" hammer the entire audience so hard? Waller's "hawkish triple strike": Inflation data slaps the market: 12-month PCE inflation at 3.7%, 6-month annualized at 4.1%, both far above the 2% target. 54% of items in the PCE basket have price increases over 3%—inflation is not isolated, it's widespread. Interest rate tool reaffirmed: Waller clearly stated "short-term rates are the main tool to achieve the dual mandate," unconventional measures should be avoided if possible—translation: rate hikes are the preferred weapon. Denial of forward guidance: "Forward guidance has overstayed its welcome"—translation: no more promises, every meeting will be a "surprise." Market's "instant death sentence": September rate hike probability: 35% → 57-60% Two-year US Treasury yield: single-day jump of 11-12 basis points BTC: dropped from $81,142 to $76,909, down 4% in 24h Liquidations: $488.7 million cleared in crypto market over 24 hours, longs account for over $360 million GoldEating too many melons is hard to digest, and besides tiring your eyes, there's no other gain 😂
Why not consider where the bottom range of this bear market $BTC might be?
History doesn't simply repeat itself,
But looking at previous cycles, there should be some references.
In past cycles, between Bitcoin's major tops and bottoms,
there is a fairly obvious time pattern.
December 2017: BTC reached about $19,000 historical high
December 2018: Bear market low about $3,200,
November 2021: BTC reached about $69,000,
November 2022: Bear market low about $15,500,
In these two complete cycles,
from top to bear market bottom took about a year each.
If this bull market peak is October 2025 at $126,000,
then the bottom area of this cycle might be from the second half of 2026 to early 2027.
Trying to buy all within this time
would be like carving a mark on a boat to find a sword,
because this cycle has spot ETFs, institutional funds, corporate holdings,
as well as changes in regulatory environment and macro liquidity that alter BTC market structure.
But within this timeframe,
successfully buying BTC has a relatively higher chance of winning.
If BTC price remains depressed,
market volume drops, many altcoins go to zero,
market sentiment stays low for a long time, no one cares,
media starts to constantly discuss whether Bitcoin has lost its value,
many lose patience and choose to cut losses and exit,
those who once chased the rally crazily start to leave the market completely,
these signals mark the start of the bear market bottom, a good time to increase holdings.
Plan ahead,
when the bear market comes, how much capital to participate? How much BTC to buy?
There is no lowest price, but accumulate chips in the bottom area,
no all-in on a single day, but continuous accumulation during a phase.
The biggest trap in the market
is that everyone knows roughly when the bear market bottom will come,
but when the real bottom appears, most still think "it will fall further",
no need to predict the lowest price or expect to buy at the lowest point,
prepare funds in advance, buy in batches, hold long term.
Don't fear missing the lowest point,
fear the bull market coming while you have no chips and miss out completely,
that is the greater regret.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Over the weekend, $BTC pulled up to 79300 and then continued to decline, essentially a false breakout caused by low liquidity: institutions and market makers left the market over the weekend, and the order book depth was 30%–40% thinner than on weekdays. A small amount of capital could push the price to resistance levels, creating a "breakout" illusion, but lacking real buying support#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults 📌Capital Watch｜Crypto funds saw a weekly inflow of 3.2 billion, need to clarify data scope
BofA data: Crypto funds had a net inflow of 3.2 billion USD in a single week, hitting a new high since October 2025.
In the same week, US stocks attracted 119.2 billion USD. Although the incremental volume in crypto is small, the capital trend has already reversed.
Previously, crypto and US stock risk capital shrank in sync; now US tech stocks and crypto are warming up together, not a seesaw effect of funds, but driven by crypto leverage replenishment + ETF buying returning.
⚠️Note the difference in scope: BofA only counts its own clients, which differs from CoinShares’ full market ETP data.
CoinShares shows net inflows for five consecutive weeks, reversed the whole week by a large single-day inflow on Friday, reflecting institutions’ habit of concentrated buying before the weekend.
3.2 billion is worth attention, but focus on whether the “Friday effect” can continue to judge if it’s active allocation or passive hedging.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年
$SOL $ETH $BTC BTC has already launched its third assault on the 80,000 threshold. First attempt: On August 25, it touched 81,000 but was pushed back to 77,000. Second attempt: On August 28, it tested 81,000 again and was pushed back to 77,000 once more. Third attempt: On August 31, BTC is gathering strength at 78,900, preparing to attack again. But one data point sends chills down the spine of veteran traders: the funding rate has hit a 19-month high. This means leveraged longs have become "crowded" to the limit. Is the third assault a prelude to a breakout, or a trap of long liquidation? Let's lay out the market truth: 🐻 Bears' trump card: 🐂 Bulls' trump card: Key positions: My judgment: The third test of 80,000 is weaker than the previous two. Why? Because leverage is already crowded, ETFs have short-term outflows, and macro headwinds remain. But I lean towards a "false breakout with a pullback" rather than a "trend reversal"—enterprise buying (Saylor, Strive) will act as invisible support around 75,000. Short-term volatility, medium-term upward trend is the high probability scenario. Bitcoin surged from about $63,000 in mid-month to above $81,000, but did not continue a one-sided rally; instead, it has been oscillating at a high level between $77,000 and $80,000.
The cumulative increase in August is still close to 30%, clearly outperforming gold, the Nasdaq, and the S&P, but the pullback after pushing past $80,000 indicates that this rally has shifted from "short squeeze acceleration" to "profit digestion and waiting for macro validation."
What’s more worth watching is not the daily ups and downs, but who it moves with.
Grayscale points out that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen from near zero at the start of the year to over 50%; the shorter 30-day correlation window has even reached 0.81, while the correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, and with the US Dollar Index it has moved to around -0.86.
In other words, the market is temporarily no longer treating it as a high-beta tech stock, but more like trading a "scarce hard asset."
The driving forces are concentrated: the total US Treasury debt has crossed $40 trillion, the Treasury is increasing long-term bond buybacks, the dollar is weakening, and fiat currency credit hedging positions are flowing back.
Gold moves first, Bitcoin follows—this is a typical restart of a devaluation trade, not just an internal rotation within crypto. But stronger linkage does not mean they will always rise and fall together.
This week’s dense employment data releases and the still-to-be-tested hawkish stance of the Fed will cause interest rate and dollar expectations to shift, loosening correlations again. If the $80,000 level cannot hold, the high-level oscillation will be prolonged; if gold strengthens again and the dollar weakens, Bitcoin will have a better chance to turn this oscillation into a stepping stone for the next breakout. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 📊 Always losing money trading crypto? Your timing is just off
Analyzed hourly data from June to August, found the main players' 24-hour rhythm is as precise as a clock👇
🕗 8 AM - 3 PM Asian session｜Secretly accumulating
Volume shrinks and price drifts down, volatility is the lowest all day
You think the market is weak, but they are actually buying at low levels
🕒 3 PM - 9 PM European session｜Testing and turnover
First pump then dump to test selling pressure above
After 6 PM the direction is set, US session follows the script
🕘 9 PM - 8 AM US session｜Aggressive selling
At 9 PM a sharp drop shakes out longs, then a deep V-shaped recovery at 11 PM
Biggest surge between 4-5 AM — main players passing the last baton
🔁 Full cycle: dump → accumulate → test → sell → dump again
Three bitter mantras:
Don’t panic at Asian session lows, it might be an opportunity
Don’t sell during US session crashes, likely a deep V
Don’t chase the sharp rise at dawn, that’s distribution $BTC $ETH On August 28, a number that made everyone on edge was released: US spot BTC ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $201.9 million, while BlackRock IBIT, Bitwise, ARKB, and VanEck all saw outflows, ending the myth of nine consecutive days of inflows. But strangely—last week the overall net inflow was still $924 million, with BlackRock IBIT alone taking $938 million. They ran 200 million in one day and made 900 million in a week. Is this institutions "fake crash shakeout," or are they really starting to retreat? Let's do the math: 🐻 Bear analysis: Fed Chairman Warsh hawked in Jackson Hole, and the market's bet on a rate hike in September soared from 35.4% to 55.7%. High interest rates suppress risk assets, and ETF funds immediately react by fleeing. The outflow of big players like IBIT and ARKB indicates that smart money is reducing positions. 🐂 Bullish analysis: 200 million yuan outflowed in one day, which is just "a drop in the bucket" compared to ETFs with hundreds of billions in total. Last week, the overall net inflow was 924 million, indicating that institutions' medium- to long-term allocation logic hasn't changed. Warsh's hawkish remarks were more about "expectation management," not real interest rate hikes. Key signal: The Fear and Greed Index dropped from 82 to 69 (greed), indicating market sentiment is cooling but not collapsing. This is healthy "deleveraging," not "institutional flight." Saylor's divine aid: Strategy's executive chairman tweeted "We're ₿ack," hinting at restarting the two-month pause in coin buying plans.$XAU $XAUT Comprehensive Market Analysis Risk Warning: The following is market speculation only and does not constitute investment advice. 1. Macro Liquidity Dimension $XAU Classified as a major category of non-interest-bearing safe-haven assets, its core pricing anchor is the real interest rate of U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar index, which show a significant negative correlation with gold prices. During the period of rising real interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, funds shift toward yield-bearing bond assets, putting pressure on gold prices; During the period of falling real interest rates, gold allocation valuations are being revalued. Currently, the market is competing for a turning point in Federal Reserve policy, with employment and inflation data directly correcting rate cut expectations; Combined with the medium- and long-term disruption of U.S. fiscal debt expansion affecting the dollar credit, global central banks continue to buy gold, forming a bottom-supporting force, but in the short term, the market will still be affected by pulsive fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields. Geopolitical risk, as an event-driven factor, easily triggers short-term safe-haven premiums, which may lead to rapid pullbacks after the premium fades. 2. Capital and Fundamental Dimensions On the capital side, indicators are global gold ETF holdings and COMEX non-commercial net long positions. After a round of rapid rally, CTA trend funds accumulate large long exposures, increasing position crowding. If macro expectations shift, concentrated profit-taking may be triggered, leading to a rapid pullback. On the supply side, incremental elasticity in mineral gold is limited, with marginal demand mainly coming from official central bank gold purchases, physical consumption, and financial allocation demand; Continuous net gold purchases by the central bank provide medium- to long-term fundamental support, but this variable mainly affects the bottom range and is unlikely to drive short-term pulse surges. Short-term market trends are mainly driven by commodityThe continuous net inflow of ETFs has provided solid buying support for Bitcoin and Ethereum, also allowing the market to maintain rare resilience recently. However, careful observation reveals that the price center of gravity has not significantly shifted upward; this seems more like a "lifting" led by institutional funds rather than a spontaneous trend reversal.💭
The real watershed may still be in the hands of the Federal Reserve. If subsequent policy paths turn more conservative, or economic data suggest persistent inflation stickiness, market sentiment could quickly switch from greed to defense, with funds flowing from chasing hotspots back to stable assets. The intensity of this process often exceeds general expectations.
In this context, rather than chasing coins with short-term explosive potential, it is better to allocate core positions to assets like $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $OKB, and $TRUMP that have clear narratives and sufficient liquidity. ETFs do have the ability to raise the price base, but the ultimate height of the market is most likely still defined by the tightness or looseness of macro liquidity.📊
Instead of predicting direction, it is better to observe variables: whether ETF inflows continue to accelerate and every public statement by Federal Reserve officials. When these two directions align, the trend will truly become clear. Until then, staying in the market but not overly exposed may be a more composed choice.
Risk warning: Crypto assets are highly volatile. The above is only market observation and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously. Over the weekend, $BTC pulled up to 79300 and then continued to decline, essentially a false breakout caused by low liquidity: institutions and market makers left the market over the weekend, and the order book depth was 30%–40% thinner than on weekdays. A small amount of capital could push the price to resistance levels, creating a "breakout" illusion, but lacking real buying support#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Leverage $2,500 to manipulate $75 million, 100x pump in 20 minutes—Tectonic is not new to this script.
📌 The absurdity on the table
TONIC/ETH Uniswap V2 pool liquidity is only about $2,500.
The attacker swapped about $100,000, pumping TONIC nearly 100 times in around 20 minutes.
Using the inflated "overvalued collateral" to borrow real money from Tectonic, causing a loss of about $75 million.
In essence, it's like writing "this is $1 million" on a blank paper, the oracle nods, and the lending pool actually lends out $1 million.
📌 Timeline
Mango (2022) → Curve (Nov 2023, low liquidity pool manipulated for about $52 million) → LI.FI (July 2024, about $11.7 million) → Moonwell (Aug 26, about $8.7 million) → Tectonic (Aug 30, about $75 million).
The same "low liquidity + oracle + lending" template has been exploited at least 4 times in two years.
Single incident losses jumped from millions to $75 million.
⚠️ Four times in two years. Not a coincidence.
📌 Blind spots in audits
Tectonic was audited by Quantstamp and PeckShield in 2022.
But this attack exploited oracle and liquidity depth issues, which were outside the original audit scope.
The code has no vulnerabilities.
Blank paper is still treated as a million.
🔍 Low liquidity collateral should have thresholds: liquidity depth, holder concentration, oracle diversity.
This is not an isolated case but a structural defect at the DeFi product level.
$CRO was affected, but the root cause is not any single chain, but lending products allowing low liquidity collateral.
🚨 Looking at similar incidents together, "low liquidity collateral" should be considered a systemic risk source.
No code vulnerabilities ≠ no product vulnerabilities. "Audited by Quantstamp/PeckShield" should no longer be treated as a free pass.
#Tectonic遭操纵，Cronos暂停出块 $BTCAs interest rate hike expectations rise, Bitcoin takes the first hit!
$BTC's previous high has been smashed! It dropped quickly from 81,000 to 77,000, but it's not yet in a range where you can buy with your eyes closed. Why:
1. ETF funds reversed for the first time. The record of a net inflow of $2.6 billion on the 9th was broken on 8/28, with a single-day net outflow of $201.8M. This is the real driver of today's drop, not a technical correction.
2. The 77k line has support. The last correction low (8/27) was at 76.9k, and below that is a dense support zone around the 75k round number plus the 200-week moving average (about 75.5k).
3. Spot volatility hasn't exploded. The 24h trading volume is $278M, which is half of the $545M on 8/27, indicating this round is ETF funds plus leveraged long liquidation, not genuine panic.
My thinking: Don't expect to reach the previous high before the September rate hike is finalized. Fortunately, I was previously afraid of a high and reduced positions to take profits.The tree stands out in the forest, but the wind will surely break it; If you stand above others, the crowd will criticize you. The market is so bad right now, but $ZORA has risen so much. This situation will definitely attract a huge number of short sellers. I don't think $ZORA can withstand such strong short selling. —————————————————— We need to know that this coin is listed on spot trading, and you can borrow it to short sell. Once there are more short sellers, it will inevitably cause a sharp drop in funding rates, attracting arbitrage positions. Arbitrage traders will sell a large amount of spot shares, which will create huge selling pressure in the market. In my impression, basically no market manipulator can withstand such strong short selling. That's one reason for this. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. We can see that when its price rises, its open interest keeps increasing, while the long-short ratio keeps decreasing. This shows that there is indeed a large amount of funds shorting right now. Let's look at data over a longer period. We can see that its contract long-short ratio also suddenly dropped a few days ago, and the corresponding contract open interest was also rising. Let's look at the candlestick chart at that time. We can see that after its contract long-short ratio suddenly dropped, its price also plummeted. I believe this time is no exception. —————————————————— In summary, I believe $ZORA will see a short-term correction. However, because funding fees are currently quite negative,MARKET MORNING|SOL: What truly deserves attention is not just the recent strength in SOL's price; behind it lies an even more noteworthy signal: funds are starting to refocus on Solana. As of August 28, the US spot SOL ETF had a single-day net inflow of about $18.08 million, with a cumulative net inflow of about $1.35 billion. On August 27, the single-day net inflow reached $60.91 million, the highest since 2026. This indicates that SOL's upward trend is shifting from pure market sentiment to institutional funds + ecosystem fundamentals. On the other hand, Solana still maintains strong DEX trading activity, maintaining DEX trading volume lead for the seventh consecutive quarter in Q2. Meanwhile, RWA, stablecoins, and on-chain finance are emerging as new growth directions. But risks cannot be ignored. Solana's network revenue has been clearly affected by speculative trading cycles in the past, with high transaction volume, but that doesn't mean its long-term value has been fully realized. So what I care about more is not "how much more SOL can rise," but rather: can the inflow of funds continue? Can the real on-chain demand grow? If these two indicators continue to improve, SOL's medium- to long-term logic will be more meaningful than a simple price increase. Do you think this round of inflows is a short-term rotation or the start of a new fundamental cycle for Solana? 👇$BTC $ETH $SOL$PUMP buys back and burns every day, yet the price keeps falling every day? This is the most frustrating part.
$PUMP is now around 0.0046.
Pump.fun's revenue last week reached $11.52 million, ranking fourth in protocol revenue across the entire market. Even more astonishing, the smart contract directly uses half of the fees to buy back and burn, averaging about $5.52 million burned weekly.
The cumulative buyback and burn has exceeded $429 million, about 28.6% of the circulating supply has been burned.
Even Jupiter has hoarded 1.6 billion $PUMP, worth about $5 million.
Annualized revenue is $458 million, but the market cap is just over $1 billion, with a book valuation of about 4 times.
With such strong fundamentals, why has the price dropped from 0.0051 all the way down to 0.0046, a direct pullback of 10%?
The technicals aren’t looking great either:
SAR at 0.004966 is pressing from above, EMA21 at 0.004758 has already been broken, currently only EMA55 at 0.004547 is supporting from below.
RSI6 is only 36.6, and KDJ’s J value has dropped to 27.8, indicating a bit of short-term oversold.
But it’s important to note here:
Oversold ≠ immediate rebound.
August revenue is expected to be $45 million, possibly a 36% increase month-over-month from July. The last time revenue broke $40 million, $PUMP surged to 0.0087.
#DailyOrbit SK Hynix $SKHYNIX suddenly plunged early this morning, but don’t rush to suspect the HBM logic!
This wave looks more like the semiconductor sector collectively taking a hit. Last Friday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 3.47% directly, Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole pulled back rate hike expectations, and combined with the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and oil prices $BZ surging near $90, high-valuation AI hardware naturally got hit first. This morning, SK Hynix fell about 2.7% pre-market, Samsung also dropped in sync, so it’s not that SK Hynix $SKHY suddenly had a major problem on its own.
The only somewhat annoying thing on the company side is that employees rejected the salary bonus plan, which had already caused a drop before, but it has nothing directly to do with HBM orders.
On the contrary, fundamentals haven’t shown obvious changes for now: SK Hynix’s HBM share is still the world’s number one, and it was just mentioned that memory shortages might continue until 2030. The US $4 billion HBM advanced packaging plant has also just started construction.
So for now, I consider this a macro sentiment sell-off. Next, watch South Korea’s semiconductor exports and Broadcom’s earnings report. If AI demand remains strong and HBM prices and orders don’t loosen, then SK Hynix, you better get back up on your own from today’s fall.
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 Capital quietly rotates: BTC consolidates, ETH and XRP take over
The flood of funds into Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs has temporarily paused. After nine consecutive days of net inflows exceeding $3 billion, on August 28 BTC ETFs recorded a net outflow of about $201.9 million, coinciding with the price retreating from the $80,000 resistance level to $77,000. Although the single-day outflow does not indicate a trend reversal, it aligns with price consolidation, suggesting institutions may be taking profits in stages and short-term cautious sentiment is growing.
However, funds have not exited the market but shifted to other sectors. Ethereum (ETH) spot ETFs have maintained continuous positive inflows since August 11, showing notable stability. Earlier this month, ETH ETFs attracted about $697 million in a single week, jointly setting the strongest weekly record of 2026 with BTC, indicating that institutional demand for Ethereum ecosystem allocation is more sustained.
Most notably is XRP. Its ETF just recorded the largest single-week inflow since 2026, becoming the dark horse in this rotation. Funds are clearly selectively increasing holdings in ETH and XRP as BTC momentum weakens, seeking relative value and diversified exposure.
This is not capital fleeing cryptocurrency but a clear internal rotation. BTC remains the benchmark anchor but with short-term momentum slowing; ETH and XRP are proving their appeal by continuously attracting capital, showing that institutions are differentiating their allocations based on fundamentals and risk-return profiles of different assets. Amid market divergence, structural opportunities have already emerged.
$BTC
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Trump VS Walsh: A "Game of Power" Deciding the Fate of the Crypto Market
The White House wants to cut interest rates.
The Federal Reserve wants to raise interest rates.
These two are using the BTC in your hands as a chessboard.
Act One: Opposing Scenes
Trump (White House):
In the early hours of August 20, Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve.
“We would really like to see interest rates come down.”
His logic is simple: the better the economic data, the more the rates should be cut — "Previously, good data meant rate cuts; now, good data leads to rate hikes because of inflation fears, which they shouldn't be afraid of." Each 1 percentage point cut in rates is equivalent to reducing about $600 billion in costs.
Walsh (Federal Reserve):
August 28, Jackson Hole.
Walsh’s first official speech as Fed Chair.
What did he say? — "If inflation does not come down, we still have a lot of work to do."
Former Fed Vice Chair Blinder commented directly after hearing this: "This sounds like looking for a justification to raise rates."
One is the White House master, the other is the Fed chief he personally promoted. A "family feud" power game officially begins.
Act Two: Power Comparison
Trump camp: Rate cuts
Not only publicly calling for it, but also emphasizing again during meetings with crypto industry executives that rates should come down.
His core demand: low rates to stimulate the economy and ease the interest burden on the $40 trillion national debt.
Walsh camp: Rate hikes
In the July FOMC, 3 members supported a 25bp hike. After Jackson Hole, more officials echoed this.
Walsh’s confidence comes from data: PCE inflation at 3.7%, 6-month reading at 4.1%, far above the 2% target.
Act Three: How Does the Market Price It?
CME says: Trust Walsh.
Probability of a rate hike in September is 56.9%, with an 88.9% chance of at least one hike this year.
A week ago, this number was only 39.9%. Walsh’s speech directly raised the probability by 17 percentage points.
Polymarket says: Not necessarily.
Betting contracts with over $66.6 million in volume show — 52% bet on no change, 48% bet on a hike.
Almost an even split.
Rate cut bets? Only 1% left.
A year ago, the market was betting on a 25bp cut in September with 99.3% probability. It took only 12 months to shift from a rate cut consensus to a rate hike consensus.
Act Four: What Does This Mean for the Crypto Market?
After Walsh’s speech, BTC directly retreated from near $80,000 gains, falling below $77,000.
The logic is simple:
Trump wins (rate cut/no hike) → liquidity loosens → BTC benefits
Walsh wins (rate hike) → dollar strengthens → BTC under pressure
September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Friday’s nonfarm payroll data is the last showdown before the decisive battle.
If nonfarm is strong again — a September hike is not impossible.
This is not a battle of economic data.
This is a power struggle between the White House and the Federal Reserve.
The crypto market is just the chessboard of this war.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The biggest fundamental change in this bull market cycle of the crypto space!
Previously, the biggest criticism of the crypto space was all the hype with no real value. In the last bull market, or the one before that, DeFi indeed brought revolutionary changes to the crypto space. But the market moved too fast, and many of the concepts and infrastructures left behind at that time are only now beginning to show their power.
For example, $UNI used to generate millions of dollars in protocol fees daily, and even after deducting LP fees, it was still substantial, but UNI holders didn’t get a single cent. You can see its price dropped from over $40 at its peak to $4.
Why? Because the SEC is watching you. If you dare to pay dividends or do buybacks, you’re considered a security. You’re just waiting to be sued.
Now the situation has changed. Simply put, DeFi can openly and legitimately "pay salaries" to token holders.
For example, UNI has activated a fee switch, burning UNI and initiating deflation; $HYPE conducts massive daily buybacks; $ENA has launched four major ecosystem protocols, with over 90% of net income used for buybacks.
In other words, DeFi tokens are no longer just governance voting tools but dividend-paying stocks with cash flow (through buybacks, enhancing overall value).
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估
SanDisk and Kioxia plan to invest $31 billion, NAND supply and demand reassessed?
AI data centers are increasingly demanding storage, with SanDisk and Kioxia planning to invest over $31 billion in Japan by 2032 to expand NAND production.
My understanding is simple:
The hotter AI gets → the more data → the greater the storage demand.
In the short term, NAND supply is tight, supporting prices.
But in the long term, caution is needed: with current shortages prompting expansion, will there be overcapacity in a few years?
So the real point to watch in this cycle is not the phrase "AI lacks storage," but:
Can demand growth outpace capacity?
AI is still accelerating, but investments should not just follow the story; they must consider whether the money can truly be earned back.
$SNDK Eve of Nonfarm Payrolls: 4 Numbers That Will Decide Your Fate on Friday
Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls might be the final piece of the puzzle for a September rate hike decision. At this point, staying alive is more important than making money.
Here are 4 numbers you must keep a close eye on 👇
Key Number One: 56.9% — CME's probability of a September rate hike
A week ago, this number was 35.4%. After a few words from Waller at Jackson Hole, it shot up to 57%.
The latest CME "FedWatch" data shows: a 43.1% chance of rates staying unchanged in September, and a 56.9% chance of a 25 basis point hike.
Consensus shifted from rate cuts to rate hikes in just one Waller era.
Key Number Two: 58,000 — Reuters' Nonfarm Payrolls forecast
August Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to add 58,000 jobs.
What does that mean? July Nonfarm Payrolls decreased by 23,000. From -23,000 to +58,000, the market expects a strong rebound.
Deutsche Bank says 65,000, Wells Fargo says 80,000, ING also says 65,000. The lowest and highest forecasts differ by almost double.
Key Number Three: 4.1% — Expected unemployment rate
Unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%.
But note a neglected detail: labor force participation is at a five-year low.
Low participation rate + low unemployment rate = the job market isn’t as healthy as it appears.
Key Number Four: $105.4k — Polymarket smart money's contrarian bet
On Polymarket, 4 addresses have collectively staked $105,400 betting that the "rate cap remains unchanged after September."
Their average buy-in probability is 58.9%, below the current market price of 63.5%.
At the peak of rate hike expectations, someone is betting on no change.
Three scenario simulations 👇
Scenario A: Nonfarm > 80,000
Rate hike probability soars above 70%. BTC may retrace to 75,000 or even 72,000.
Scenario B: Nonfarm 30,000–60,000
Meets or slightly misses expectations. Market fluctuates with unclear direction. This is the most torturous.
Scenario C: Nonfarm < 30,000
Rate hike probability plummets. BTC may violently rebound to above 82,000.
Trading advice
First, control leverage before Nonfarm; avoid heavy bets on direction.
Second, watch implied volatility in the options market — huge swings are coming.
Third, better to miss out than to make a wrong move.
$BTC $XAU $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 💰BTC/ETH Hourly Schedule Revealed! Accumulation in Asian Session, Testing in European Session, Distribution in US Session—Don't Get Cut Again
Analyzed hourly data from June to August 2026 and found the main players' 24-hour trading rhythm is as regular as if coded👇
🕗 Asian Session 08:00-15:00｜Accumulation
Only a 40% chance of rising at 10 AM, volatility shrinks to the lowest of the day at 12 PM
🕒 European Session 15:00-21:00｜Testing
Gains turn from negative to positive, first pumping then dumping to test selling pressure, ETH pumps $34 at 4 PM, dumps $22 at 5 PM
From 6-7 PM, the chance of rising hits 60%—direction set, US session preview
🕘 US Session 21:00 - Next day 08:00｜Distribution
Volatility is the highest all day, gains are also the highest, but the chance of rising is only 50%
Violent shakeout at 9 PM (ETH dumps $62) → deep V-shaped pullback at 10-11 PM → pump and distribution at 4-5 AM
The strongest rally is when the main players hand you the last baton
🔁 Full cycle:
6 AM dump closes → Asian session slow decline accumulation → European session turnover testing → US session shakeout + pump + distribution → cycle repeats
Don't short chase in Asian session; the low point might be a setup window
Don't panic at the 9 PM US session crash; it's likely a deep V, not a crash
Don't chase highs at 4-5 AM; it's distribution, not a start #BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
I am Brother Ci. BTC couldn't hold above 80000 and has now fallen back to oscillate around 78000. The ETF net inflow streak of 9 consecutive days ended on August 28, institutional buying paused temporarily, while retail activity has risen to a nearly two-year high.
The correlation between BTC and gold is strengthening, while the correlation with the Nasdaq is weakening. This signal is more worth watching than price fluctuations. The market is beginning to discuss whether BTC is running an independent trend, no longer just following tech stocks. After the ETF buying cools down, whether retail and spot demand can support the market is the most direct variable going forward. The synchronous strengthening of BTC and gold is not just a short-term phenomenon; it is a systemic migration of capital re-pricing fiat credit. Geopolitical conflicts and interest rate hike expectations are happening simultaneously, so short-term oscillations are inevitable, but the underlying logic remains unchanged. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm is shifting. Brother Ci has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL The correlation between the US-Iran conflict and crypto assets depends greatly on the nature of the risk (Risk-On vs. Risk-Off) as well as the applicability of each asset. Here is a detailed analysis of the impact on $BTC, $ETH, $SOL and $XAUT: 1. Tether Gold ($XAUT): The strongest beneficiary (Bullish / Safe-Haven) Mechanism: $XAUT is a token that is backed 1:1 by real gold. Impact: As the war escalates, risk-off sentiment covers the market. Global capital flows flee$ENA quickly pulled back to around 0.145 after surging to 0.189, with previously accumulated profits and chasing positions stuck at the EMA55 moving average boundary.
On the chart, the coin price has retraced nearly 30% from its high within three days, breaking below EMA21 and directly touching the EMA55 support band near 0.148, with short-term indicators showing oversold signals.
The governance proposal that drove the previous doubling rally suggests allocating 95% of the protocol's net income to token buybacks and terminating early investor unlocks, but the prerequisite for initiating buybacks is expanding the USDe scale from the current over 4 billion to 7.5 billion USD.
The improvement in long-term inflation expectations meets the harsh reality of the triggering threshold, causing market sentiment to quickly shift from excitement over the dividend mechanism to a risk reassessment of the difficulty in doubling supply.
If the governance vote on September 2 passes smoothly and spot prices can stabilize above EMA55, long positions may leverage oversold recovery to retest the resistance zone at 0.164 above.
If the buyback proposal is blocked or USDe scale expansion stalls, losing the key moving average will trigger stop-loss selling pressure from high-level chasing positions, and the market may continue downward to seek deeper liquidity.
Once the on-chain stablecoin scale stops growing or even shrinks, the valuation logic based on income buybacks will be completely invalidated.
The variables to closely watch in the coming days are the final result of the September 2 governance vote and the actual changes in USDe circulation scale.
#银行链上支付两条路线：稳定币与代币化存款 #Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温No matter which indicator you look at, they all show that 80,000 to 85,000 is the real watershed for this round.
First, look at this Investor Tool. The red line is called the Investor Bottom, which is essentially the two-year moving average. Historically, when the price falls below this line, it enters a deep value zone. The major bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022 were all below this line. Right now, this line is just above 80,000, while the price is still slightly below it. In other words, according to this indicator, we haven't truly exited the accumulation zone yet.
Now overlay other lines:
365DMA, 80,000 to 82,000.
50-week moving average, 81,000 to 82,000.
The rebound in May this year was exactly pushed back at 82,400.
The average cost of the ETF group is 84,700.
Four lines with completely different logics are all squeezed into the same range. This is definitely not a coincidence.
Currently, BTC is at 78,800, and in the past few days, it has been pushed back several times above 80,000, with a high touching 81,300.
So what to do?
1. Break above and hold steady; 84,000 to 86,000 is just ahead, and the bull market will be officially confirmed.
2. Fail to break above, then it remains a box range between 70,000 and 80,000. The 200WMA takeover plan I mentioned in my previous article remains valid Account Position Divergence Radar
Where people stand and where the money is placed are sometimes completely different matters.
$DOGE has more accounts leaning long, but the top position weights lean short, indicating that the apparent consensus has not yet translated into position scale. The price rise has not led to position expansion, so short-term correction is valid, and there is insufficient evidence of new trend positions. Until the top position ratio returns above 1, the long account advantage remains an incomplete consensus.
$SUI shows no alignment among all accounts, top accounts, and top positions; it currently looks more like a divergence market. The 15-minute price and position move upward in the same direction, with risk exposure expanding. The next step is to see if the price can continue to realize gains. When the metrics are not aligned on one side, first observe which way the top positions converge, then see if the price responds.
$ZORA account metrics tilt toward the short side, while top position weights still lean long. This data set only confirms divergence and does not declare a winner for either side. Price moves down while positions move up, with risk exposure continuing to expand during the decline. If the price falls but top positions remain long, position metric conflicts are still likely during rebounds. #Anthropic：IPO new progress, prospectus planned to be published in September Anthropic's IPO could be both a "boarding opportunity" in the AI era and the peak of a valuation bubble.
The final answer depends on whether the profit data in Q3 and Q4 can validate the reasonableness of the $2 trillion valuation
— and this is precisely the first real test after full charging of computing power costs.When the crypto market heats up, the vast majority of people still prefer to trade cryptocurrencies rather than US stock assets.
Previously, SanDisk $SNDK contract trading volume even surpassed ETH at its peak, second only to BTC; Micron $MU also frequently ranked in the top five for contract turnover. But now that the crypto market is rising, only SK Hynix $SKHYNIX remains in the top ten contract trading volumes on OKX. Although the US stock market being closed on weekends is a factor, the trading volume hadn’t dropped this significantly before — currently, SanDisk’s single-day contract turnover is only 364 million U, Micron is just 124 million U, while BTC and ETH have reached 8.8 billion and 7.8 billion U respectively.
When the market has a clear theme (such as AI, new energy), global capital follows that theme; when the market starts to diverge, lacks a main theme, and capital is relatively abundant, Bitcoin becomes the optimal reservoir.
The essence of exchanges listing US stock assets is to ensure that regardless of the market phase, the platform can maintain trading volume and fees, thus guaranteeing steady income. Therefore, the listing of US stocks impacts altcoins the most, while the effect on Bitcoin and mainstream coins is limited, and it may even enlarge the mainstream coin market by bringing in new incremental users. But the vast majority of altcoins have no long-term value; it’s fine to just do some short-term trading.
#OKX星球话题来啦
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 🚨 $SOL JUST GOT ANOTHER REASON TO STAY ON THE RADAR.
Charles Schwab is bringing $SOL alongside $AVAX and $LINK to its accounts — another sign that crypto access through traditional finance is expanding.
And $SOL is still holding the $100 level.
Here’s what I’m watching:⌛️
🟢 $100 holds → bullish structure stays alive
🔥 $110 breaks with volume → momentum could accelerate
⚠️ $100 loses → setup needs ✨#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Just finished looking at Maji Dage's latest contract data. He opened a long position on BTC with 40x leverage, 125 BTC, and an average position price of $77,941. He also has a 25x leverage position on ETH, with 41,000 ETH worth about $100 million, and now has a floating loss of about 1 million. This isn't the first time he's used high leverage, nor is it his first floating loss on ETH. Structure of 40x leverage: 125 BTC, at 77,941, is about $9.7 million. 40x leverage means that if the price pulls back by about 2.5%, this position will face liquidation. BTC is currently around 77,000; if it falls below 76,000, the pressure on this position will be significant. But if it rebounds back above 79,000, he will start to profit. What is he betting on? This structure shows he is betting on a BTC rebound from around 77,000. After an initial push to 80,000 and then pulling back, he chose to go long during the pullback rather than stopping out and exiting. This aligns with his thinking on ETH—he did not close positions due to floating losses, but continued to hold, even opening new long positions in BTC. If he holds long positions in both ETH and BTC and bets on a rebound in the same direction, the core assumption of this judgment is: he believes the current pullback is just a short-term correction, not a trend reversal. This logic itself is sound, but the premise is—is he executing within a controllable risk range, or has he already deviated from his original risk management plan? What am I thinking?I have read multiple Bitcoin “insurance policies” in the last 4 weeks from multiple jurisdictions to evaluate them for myself. None of them are true Bitcoin insurance by my definition or my expectation for when I’m buying “insurance”. Most of them fall back to relying on the tech stack if ANYTHING happens - so why I am paying for insurance? That’s okay btw - as long as you trust the tech stack - part of buying insurance/warranty for me is in-case the maker of the car has an unknown fault that re空头笑着数钱，多头咬着牙硬扛
闪迪从1827一路栽到1450附近，整整跌没400美金。现在战场上：152个空头鲸鱼在狂欢，135个多头兄弟在死扛。
技术面：1460成了多空反复拉扯的绞肉机。上方1500-1515像一堵墙，自从8月20号跌穿MA30后，多头就没能再爬上去。下面1435-1440要是守不住，下一步就得去1400-1420找底。
巨鲸数据：空头成本1490，浮盈113万，胜率近80%；多头成本1346，浮盈915万，胜率却只有23.7%。空头仓位只有多头一半，赚钱却轻松得多，方向对了，仓位小照样赢。 大单资金周五净流出293万，12小时跑了650万。大钱在跑路，散户在接盘，典型的“主力抽梯子”。
消息面也是拉扯：闪迪和铠侠砸310亿美元扩产，市场怕供给过剩；以色列裁员700人，高位放利空总被放大。但939亿美元长协锁单、数据中心收入暴增437%、摩根大通喊2250目标价，多头也不是没底气。
老张操作建议：
多单：激进派现价轻仓入场，稳健等1430-1440企稳放量入场，目标先看1480-1500。
做空：等1480-1500受阻入场，135个多头鲸鱼还没走，别追空Here's a counterintuitive take: Gold briefly dropped below $4400 today, then quickly surged back up by more than twenty dollars — the battle at this level is more important than many think. Some say with war and risk aversion, gold should be rising, right? Wake up.
The main theme in the market now isn't risk aversion, it's interest rate hikes. The Fed has pushed the probability of a September rate hike to 50%. When real interest rates rise, non-yielding gold is the first to get hit. Even gold, a traditional safe haven, can't withstand rate hikes. So why would you think $BTC can thrive under the same logic? My consistent view remains — don't trust stories like "war is bullish" to judge direction; first look at where the 2-year US Treasury yield is headed. Do you trust gold's safe haven status more, or the pricing of US Treasuries?Tokenized stock transfer volume rises to $29.5 billion, asset size increases by only 1.45%
The latest data from RWA.xyz shows that the tokenized stock transfer volume over the past 30 days is about $29.5 billion, an increase of more than 415% compared to 30 days ago; monthly active addresses are about 1.3 million, and holding addresses are about 2.36 million. Meanwhile, the Distributed Value in this category only grew by 1.45%, reaching $2.54 billion.
This reminds us that on-chain transfer volume cannot be simply equated with new funds. RWA.xyz's Transfer Volume excludes mint and burn; the same batch of assets circulating repeatedly between wallets, trading contracts, and DeFi protocols can significantly amplify activity data.
Compared to transfer volume, what deserves more attention are the actual rights corresponding to the tokens, regional restrictions, redemption mechanisms, and market depth. Identical token names do not represent identical ownership rights.
#OnChainStocks #RWAThe US military bombed Iran, and $BTC immediately fell below 77,000, gold didn't rise but fell, only crude oil is celebrating. The textbook script of "war = the three arrows of safe haven all fired" was torn apart by the market on the spot.
Why? Because the market no longer buys the "safe haven sentiment" narrative; what is being priced now is "inflation expectations." The Strait of Hormuz handles millions of barrels of oil daily, and once gunfire breaks out, oil prices jump, inflation expectations immediately rise, and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike soars — the probability of a rate hike in September has jumped from 36% to 57%, and Barclays even calls for 25 basis points hikes in both September and December.
Once rate hike expectations arise, non-yielding assets like gold and Bitcoin become easy targets, only crude oil, which is "inflation itself," can laugh last. The transmission chain is clear: conflict → oil price → inflation → rate hike → non-yielding assets get hit, which has nothing to do with safe haven.
Moreover, this conflict has lasted half a year, and the market is already numb to the news of "another bombing." What really keeps traders on edge is not geopolitics itself, but whether it will push oil prices even higher, forcing the Fed to slam shut the door on rate cuts, or even reverse to rate hikes.
For the 2026 market, stop using the old 2020 script. War during a rate hike cycle is a friend to crude oil but a nightmare for non-yielding assets. Wake up, the market has changed. US military bombs Iran, Bitcoin falls below 77,000.
In the early morning, another incident occurred in the Middle East.
The US military airstruck two rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island, and Iran responded with missile strikes, intensifying the tension in the Strait of Hormuz once again.
According to the textbook script:
War escalation → Risk aversion sentiment rises → Gold rises, BTC rises, crude oil rises.
All three arrows fired.
But this time the market is not following the script at all.
WTI crude oil opened nearly 2% higher, Brent crude reclaimed $90;
Gold weakened instead;
$BTC fell below $77,000;
$ETH fell below $2,400;
Long positions liquidations further amplified the decline.
Why?
Because the market is no longer just trading "risk aversion."
Instead:
War escalation → Oil price rises → Inflation pressure resurfaces → Rate cut expectations cool down → Liquidity tightens → BTC and gold come under pressure.
So today, the strongest safe-haven asset is actually crude oil.
This is also the most worrisome point:
War does not necessarily benefit BTC.
If the Strait of Hormuz continues to escalate and oil prices keep surging, BTC may continue to face short-term pressure.
77,000 is not an ordinary round number.
If it holds, there will be a rebound.
If it doesn't hold, the next stop is around 75,000.
Don't rush to bottom-fish now.
First, watch whether the Middle East situation will continue to boil over. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 $BTC $ETH $TRUMP haven't even opened on Monday, but ZEC already surged to $870, an eight-year high. BTC bounced back to 79K, ETH stood above 2500— all three flying together. This isn't just a simple weekend-wide rally; it's three separate money flows igniting individually.
ZEC's surge is driven by the Grayscale spot ETF (ZCSH) launching on NYSE Arca on August 25, combined with the "AI + privacy coin" narrative, pushing it up over 60% in a week. However, the market is thin, futures volume is 9 times spot, purely derivative-driven short squeeze, not real usage.
BTC and ETH follow another track: ETH spot ETF has had 9 consecutive inflows, $225 million in a single day, exchange reserves are dropping, 42 million tokens staked, 2500 is the bulls' bottom line; BTC is led by ETH, repeatedly contesting 79K, but the previous high at 81K remains unbroken, so don't consider this the main uptrend.
No US stock buyers over the weekend, the pump was driven by speculative funds and Gamma plays. Once Asian markets open Monday, profit-taking will come first. Don't chase ZEC above 850, watch for support at 780; BTC must hold 77K, ETH must hold 2480 before considering adding positions. What’s flying up isn’t necessarily a plane, it might just be fireworks. #BTC高位多空拉锯，黄金联动增强 #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 $SNDK SanDisk 1461, RSI6=22.65, J value only 8.52, this data would be considered oversold in any normal market, but SanDisk's candlestick is still grinding downward.
The August 29 expansion news was thrown out like it was free—SanDisk and Kioxia announced a Japan expansion plan exceeding $31 billion, with investment continuing until 2032, with only one condition: the Japanese government must approve. Jane Street also joined the party, increasing holdings by 540% to 7.41 million shares, with a market value of about $9 billion. Wall Street's calculations are loud and clear: with long-term contracts in hand, expansion imminent, AI storage demand is far from over.
But the market these days seems to be telling a different story. From 1504 down to 1450, the J value directly dropped to 8.52, and Rosen law firm issued an investigation announcement, saying it represents SanDisk investors in a class action lawsuit, causing the stock price to fall pre-market as a sign of respect. The positive news released over the weekend was immediately offset by a Rosen announcement. Aluminum quickly threw out headlines like "Negotiation Trump Card," which might be a bullish signal for other coins, but for SanDisk it became short-selling fuel.
SAR=1502 overhead, EMA21=1488, EMA55=1511, all broken down. Short-term momentum is indeed weak, but the fundamental logic of the storage sector hasn't changed—Micron's recent earnings report and guidance both exceeded expectations, and storage demand is still rising. The problem is that capital is currently reluctant to catch the falling knife at this position.
No panic in the drop; the important thing is to know what signal you are waiting for.🫡Here's the most intriguing tech story of the day: OpenAI's labs were reported to have bought tens of thousands of Mac minis and Mac Studios in one go to train AI agents, and still found it insufficient, while even Anthropic went to AWS to rent more. Sounds exciting—but if you think like a trader: with such insane computing power demand, is it really driven by genuine business, or is it just rounds of financing passing the hot potato, burning valuations into candlestick charts?
Last quarter, several giants booked over a hundred billion in profits just from "investing in other AI companies" on paper—taste that for yourself. I'm not bearish on AI, but a reminder: the most euphoric narratives are often when risk pricing is the laziest. This round of $BTC is highly tied to AI sentiment; when AI sneezes, crypto catches a cold first.A week ago, Bitcoin was happily running above $81,000.
A week later, 77,729.
What happened?
One person, one speech, rewrote the entire market script.
Federal Reserve Chair Wash dropped a bomb at Jackson Hole. No hints of rate cuts, no dovish signals, just one phrase Wall Street kept chewing on: "we have work to do."
Translated into plain language: inflation isn’t under control yet, don’t expect me to loosen up.
The market instantly flipped—
The probability of a rate hike in September surged from 39.9% on August 21 to 56.9%. The chance of at least one rate hike this year is 88.9%.
A week ago, people were betting on rate cuts; a week later, they started betting on hikes.
Bitcoin plunged from a high of $81,280 to a low of $76,900, with $488 million in long positions liquidated instantly.
Why are rate hike expectations so deadly for crypto assets?
Two simple and blunt logics:
First, the curse of zero-yield assets. The higher the interest rate, the higher the yield on dollar assets. With U.S. Treasury yields at 4.7%, tell me why hold Bitcoin that generates no cash flow?
Second, the siphoning effect of the dollar. Rate hike expectations boost the dollar; a strong dollar means global liquidity tightens. The crypto market is the most sensitive asset class to global liquidity, bar none.
This is no longer the story of August; this is the new script for September.
Don’t trade September with July’s logic—Wash has changed the rules.
The key upcoming checkpoints to watch closely are these three:
Tuesday (September 1): ISM Manufacturing PMI
Thursday (September 3): ISM Services Index
Friday (September 4): August Nonfarm Payrolls, expected increase of 55,000 jobs, unemployment rate 4.1%
Wash himself said: one data point doesn’t make a trend. But what if all three data sets “beat expectations”?
Then a September rate hike isn’t just a “probability,” it’s a “done deal.”
Is BTC at $77,729 an opportunity or a trap?
The answer isn’t in the candlesticks.
It’s in Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls and next week’s CPI.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 🚨 Breaking
$BTC HASN'T CONFIRMED THE BULL MARKET.
2012, 2016, 2019, 2023.
Same break above the weekly MA50 every single time.
This time: NO break + Supertrend still bearish.