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"Can't hold your long positions? Because you aren't following the trend"
Why can't you hold your long positions? Because you don't understand what it means to follow the trend. Timing, location, and harmony—how many of these do you have? Open your eyes and see, is the market trending down? Has BTC been weakening continuously? This is the trend.
Many brothers ask me why I can hold short positions so steadily. The answer is simple: only by following the trend can you gain momentum. When the market is down and the news is bearish, just go with it; don't bet on when it will rebound. BTC is the directional indicator; altcoins are not strong now and will have to weaken in the future.
Look at $USELESS, dropping from 0.35879 all the way down to 0.22946, and today it fell another 7.5%. EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 are all pressing down from above, a classic bearish alignment. Each rebound is weaker than the last, volume keeps shrinking, and buyers have long fled. There's no need to guess the bottom with this kind of movement—the bottom is still far away.
My short position from 0.33372 to now has a floating profit of 156%. Why is it stable? Because as long as the market remains weak and funds stay tight, these altcoins without value support can only fall. Intraday pullbacks are just better entry points for shorts.
Once a trend forms, it won't change easily. Follow the trend to catch the big gains.
$BTC $ETH #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 $BTC $ETH Tonight at 8:30, the September non-farm payrolls will be released. The expectation is an increase of 90,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%.
Last week, the Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points, and the dot plot hinted at one more hike this year. However, recent market expectations have changed, with the probability of a rate hike in October dropping from around 70% to about 50%. Personally, I think BTC is very likely to hit a new high tonight. As for how far it will go, I won’t guess, and definitely won’t try to short at the predicted peak. Once it enters the daily-level middle zone, it’s possible to drop from 97k to 100k. So don’t open positions based on guesses; wait for the upward momentum to weaken, which will naturally give a signal for shorts. You need to follow the market. In just a few days, he doubled his account. Chris, a 26-year-old American trader, won the Robbins Cup intraday trading championship in July. Many people have doubled their accounts before, so that's not surprising 🧐🤑
But when he shared his method, it attracted over 1.8 million views in just a few days and went viral. Most people seem to have never seen his approach before...
He trades by watching order flow. According to his statistics, his win rate can exceed 60%. He said his longest winning streak was 31 days. His trading logic is to enter after one side's momentum fails. For example, when shorts are desperately selling at a low level but the price doesn't drop, those shorts get trapped. When shorts buy back to stop losses, the price is pushed up.
He divides trading into four steps: trend, position, confirmation, and execution. The first two steps are done before the market opens. He uses hourly and 15-minute charts to determine direction and 5-minute charts to find entry points.
The first step is to judge the trend by looking at two things: first, the large-scale structure. Using 1-hour and 4-hour charts, he checks if the daily value area is getting higher day by day, lower day by day, or moving sideways. The value area is the price range where 70% of the day's volume occurs.
Second is the gamma exposure, or GEX, which estimates the market makers' hedging direction based on options positions.
When gamma is positive, market makers sell when prices rise and buy when prices fall, which suppresses volatility and makes breakouts more likely to fail. When gamma is negative, market makers buy when prices rise and sell when prices fall, which amplifies volatility and causes the market to move very fast. So positive and negative gamma indicate the size of volatility, unrelated to the direction of price movement $BTC Yesterday, I really wasn't sure if it would go up or down; I could only be certain that once it started, it would eventually test either the upper or lower boundary of the channel. I could only try to limit losses as much as possible during the game. The spike position for Ethereum was marked on both sets of channel charts.
And the 85300 relay point for Bitcoin was also marked by me; these are the control points of the market makers, almost down to the exact fraction.
Bitcoin liquidated over 40 million dollars worth of positions at noon, while Ethereum liquidated 9 million and 11 million dollars worth of positions at noon and 4 PM respectively. If it weren't for being conservative, the losses would have tripled. $BTC $ETH returns to $2750, today's strength lies in the recovery speed rather than the round number level
As of October 2nd, 17:40, OKX spot $ETH is approximately $2750.86, about 2.0% higher than the 24-hour opening price of $2696.48. The price lifted from around $2690 yesterday, indicating buyers have regained the initiative, but $2750 is just the current transaction level, not an automatically established new support. The highest and lowest prices in the past 24 hours were $2778.6 and $2673.43 respectively. The market first completed a turnover at the hundred-dollar level, then returned to the upper half of the range. What is truly worth observing is whether the price can hold near the UTC midnight opening cost of $2706 during a pullback. If the price only relies on a sharp rally to stand above $2750, followed by a rapid shrinkage in volume, selling pressure may be released again at the high level; if the pullback is controlled and the low point rises, the recovery will be more sustainable. Long-term optimism for $ETH does not require denying short-term resistance; rather, it is necessary to separate "rising" from "already broken through." Today, it can be confirmed that sentiment has improved, but it cannot be prematurely confirmed that the market has accepted above $2779.
If the price stays around $2750 for a longer time, it indicates the high level is not just a passing phase; if it quickly falls back below $2706, today's strength needs to be reinterpreted. QNT just received a 50× leverage button. The market pressed it immediately.
After a ~178% weekly rally, OKX launched QUANT/USDT perpetuals with leverage up to 50×. Hours later, QNT suffered an 8.66% one-hour drop to ~$227, while ~$650K of longs were liquidated across major venues.
The catalyst survived. The leverage didn’t.
Sometimes a new market doesn’t add stability—it adds an ejector seat.The only regret with $SNDK now is not having heavily invested when it dropped below 1000. There was no way around it; the drop was so sharp that everyone suspected the storage price had collapsed, so everyone was dumping and running. I was just watching and didn’t dare to bottom-fish. Buffett was absolutely right: you have to be greedy when others are fearful. If I had heavily invested at 1000 dollars, my account wouldThe impact of tonight's non-farm payrolls on gold can be summed up in one sentence: employment data determines rate hike expectations, rate hike expectations determine the US dollar and US Treasury yields, which ultimately transmit to gold prices.
Transmission chain
Strong non-farm data indicates resilience in the US economy, reinforcing market expectations for continued Fed rate hikes, strengthening the US dollar and pushing US Treasury yields higher. As gold is a non-yielding asset, its opportunity cost rises, putting pressure on gold prices. Conversely, weak non-farm data cools rate hike expectations, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to fall, giving gold upward momentum.
Three scenarios
Scenario 1: Non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations (new jobs below 70,000)
Clear signals of weak employment will prompt the market to immediately lower rate hike bets, weakening the US dollar and possibly causing the 10-year Treasury yield to fall from above 5.3%. Gold has a chance to rebound and test the $4200 to $4210 range.
Scenario 2: Non-farm payrolls meet expectations (80,000 to 100,000)
Market consensus is between 84,000 and 90,000 new jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. This range is already fully priced in, so gold prices will likely remain volatile with no clear direction. The probability of a rate hike in October is currently only about 25%, and data meeting expectations will not change this outlook.
Scenario 3: Non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations (new jobs above 130,000)
If the data is strong above 130,000 and wages hold steady at 3.2% year-over-year, rate hike discussions will immediately restart, strengthening the US dollar and Treasury yields simultaneously. Gold will likely be pushed down to below $4140 or even $4100.
$BTC $ETH $XAUT #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点 BTC ETF inflow returns, don't rush to shout "Everyone on board"
When you see "ETF net inflow turns positive," don't automatically switch your mental BGM to the bull market march.
According to Farside's statistics available as of October 2, on October 1, the total net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs was $102.7 million, while the previous trading day saw a net outflow of $148.7 million.
The details are even more interesting: IBIT had an inflow of $195.6 million, FBTC had an outflow of $60.7 million, and GBTC had an outflow of $31.4 million. The total is positive, but some funds are entering while others are exiting; not all funds are pressing the accelerator simultaneously.
It's like a group of people pooling money for a meal: some paid a lot more, and in the end, the money was enough, but you can't just declare that everyone increased their budget.
I want to continue watching two things: whether the net inflow can continue in the following days, and whether the contribution spreads from a few funds to more. The data listed here is for completed trading days, not real-time buying, and certainly not a price prediction.
Institutions don't think as one. Knowing the total tells you the result; breaking down the details tells you who is holding the ground.
#BTC #BitcoinETF #CryptoWatch"An Afternoon Held by Ethereum"
Ethereum has risen again. I stare at the K-line like watching a disobedient cat: just when I hope it will fall, it insists on pushing up to 2730; when I think it will break through, it slips back to 2690 as if nothing happened. Occasionally in a good mood, I check in at 2670; in a bad mood, it just moves sideways, leaving the shorts hanging in midair.
Twenty to thirty points a day, back and forth, like running back and forth in a narrow alley. If my position is light, I miss out on the gains; if heavy, I fear it might suddenly turn against me. My capital isn’t thick enough, even the volatility seems stingy. I want to curse it, yet I can’t bear to close the page.
What’s called a pattern is just its mood today. When it really rises, I’ll add to my position—it's not admitting defeat, just temporarily not fighting it.
$ETH #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 BTC above 90,000, ETH breaks 3000!
I'm putting this out here, who disagrees?
Watched the market all day, $BTC current price 86300, daily chart stepping on the Bollinger middle band with a steady decline turning bullish, the bullish formation is already in place. Once the resistance at 88300 is broken, 90,000 is just a thin barrier.
Looking at $ETH, 2756 is dragging on frustratingly, but considering the Bollinger upper band at 2839 and the previous high at 2807, this is like a spring compressed to its limit. Once BTC firmly stands above 90,000, capital will overflow, and ETH catching up to 3000 is inevitable.
Honestly, playing contracts (anyone who looks at the chart knows, a 10x regular) the biggest lesson is: when the big trend comes, don’t try to be smart; those afraid to chase highs end up buying at the peak.
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $XAU 🆘🆘
Judgment has come, the big non-farm payrolls are tonight~
I no longer hold any hope, if it crashes then so be it, I don't want to trade anymore
If Bitcoin can withstand a nearly $20k rise, then I am quite a character
Hedging, cutting losses, in the end, it’s all futile
Turns out even a small ant position can hold on until liquidation
Today, inexplicably, the 4-hour K-line has consecutively broken through the previous consolidation highs, unlike the fakeouts of the past few days, and the price is approaching new highs
If the non-farm payrolls tonight are positive, it might directly surge to 90k, rate hikes won’t push it down, small good news triggers a strong rally, no options left, also tired, if it crashes I’ll accept it and take a break
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 📰 【As Bitcoin's dominance nears a return to 60%, cryptocurrency traders are in risk-on mode.】
Risk-on? Everyone's pulling back to BTC to hide, is that called being bold? Altcoins are getting another layer of pressure. Don't ask, just short.
👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $XRP $ETH at the 2750 level has yet to break through, and tonight's non-farm payroll data release will both determine the winner and decide life or death!
Since the core PCE data came out, the probability of a rate hike has cooled down. The recent rally seems to be reflecting in advance that tonight's non-farm payroll data is very likely within expectations. The mainstream forecast is +91,000, but the range prediction is quite wide, from 35,000 to 180,000, so the market's volatility range could also be large. If the data release is strong, above 120,000, then a significant pullback is likely; if below 60,000, then the resistance level may continue to be broken. The volatility at the moment of data release will very likely be huge, so don't rush in impulsively to catch a falling knife! $BTC
#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 Day 32, October begins with a single-day loss of -191.86 yuan. The asset trend curve fell from around -84.6K to -93.1K, continuing the decline from the end of September. $BTC $ETH
On October 1, the crypto market struggled to find direction amid macroeconomic battles. Bitcoin briefly surged to $85,598 due to PCE data falling below expectations, then quickly retreated to around $83,600, fluctuating within a range of $82,600 to $85,600 throughout the day. Ethereum hovered around the $2,700 mark but lost it, dropping 1.11% within 15 minutes to about $2,681. Technically, the daily chart is bullish but the 4-hour chart is bearish, so the directional choice is still undecided.
The macro environment is mixed, but bearish forces clearly dominate.
The US core PCE rose 3.0% year-over-year in August, below the expected 3.3%, which briefly cooled market bets on a rate hike in October to 37%. However, Federal Reserve officials quickly turned hawkish: Kashkari explicitly expects "one more rate hike this year and another in 2027," Cook said inflation has been too high for too long, and Goolsbee bluntly stated that maintaining high inflation long-term is "playing with fire." The 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5.3% intraday, and the 30-year rose to 5.642%, both hitting the highest levels since 2002, continuously pressuring Bitcoin, which pays no interest.
Regulators are also tightening. The US Treasury sent a letter to Congress proposing to classify DeFi protocols and blockchain validator nodes as "financial institutions" and to bring US dollar stablecoins under OFAC jurisdiction globally, sparking strong industry backlash. Meanwhile, China's Ministry of State Security issued a warning that cryptocurrencies facilitate espionage activities. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $214 million, with $154 million in long positions liquidated, 73,424 people forcibly closed out, Bitcoin long liquidations at $38.86 million, and Ethereum long liquidations at $24.48 million.
And I am right in the middle of these numbers.
A loss of 191.86 yuan is almost negligible in the total ledger of 32 days. But looking at the asset curve above—from 93.1K at the beginning of September to now, a continuous fall over 32 days—I have never truly held a single Bitcoin or Ethereum. It has all been leveraged contract bets on direction, data, and news. The 5.3% Treasury yield, hawkish signals of more rate hikes this year, and the Treasury's expanded regulatory authority over DeFi—all these variables tell the same story: this market never rewards gamblers.Analysis: This round of Bitcoin's rise is driven by capital flow, with tonight's non-farm payroll report as the key test
On October 2, QCP reported that Bitcoin broke through the range to rise to $86,913, the highest since September 23, up 14.6% from the low on September 15. However, the background of the rise shows divergence: the 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.62%, the 10-year yield once reached 5.29%, and gold experienced its worst month of the year. The real interest rate rose by 44 basis points in September, while the breakeven inflation rate remained almost unchanged, indicating that this is not an inflation shock but rather driven by stronger growth expectations, large Treasury supply, and weak auctions pushing the market to clear at higher real yields. Gold followed the real interest rate signal, falling 8.5%, while Bitcoin rose 12%. QCP believes this indicates a concentrated capital flow trade, with the asset benefiting simultaneously from new regulatory catalysts and favorable technicals. Spot ETFs saw inflows of $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in August and September, respectively. $ETH has touched the upper boundary of the range again… and honestly, my hands are getting itchy. 😅 Yesterday, I almost put my meal and rent money into the margin and barely got through it. Today, seeing ETH push higher again, I couldn’t resist. 📉 Going all-in on the short setup Entry: 2714.89 Size: 3 ETH Leverage: 100x Margin: 231U Current Price: 2712 Floating P&L: +7.35U I’m not asking for a huge profit. Just hoping the market gives me one more sharp drop according to the plan so I can take $ETH is still struggling to break through the 2,750 resistance area, while tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release could become the next major volatility catalyst. Since the core PCE data, expectations around further rate hikes have cooled. The recent crypto rebound may already be pricing in an NFP result close to market expectations. 📊 NFP Expectations • Consensus: +91K • Forecast range: 35K–180K That wide range leaves plenty of room for a sharp market reaction. 🔴 If NFP >120K: stronger-tha【On-Chain Trading Update｜WLD】
Monitored address 0xc3d1 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 0.5372 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 149,280.56 USD
▪ Leverage: 10x$CORE initially promised to build 34 nodes, but to date, nodes have been continuously lost, with only 20 still running. Nodes are only exiting, with very few new nodes added. Various vulnerabilities on the chain have been exposed one after another and have not been thoroughly resolved for a long time. The coin price has plummeted nearly 99.9% from its historical high, leaving countless loyal retail investors who participated in node staking and long-term hoarding deeply trapped, with their invested assets significantly devalued.
The project team continues to release chips externally and has now announced the handover of block production to independent validators, promoting decentralization narratives. Many suspect this is a shell game, paving the way for a future exit.
This new narrative aims to stabilize the retail investors who are still holding on desperately, giving those trapped a final illusory hope. As nodes continue to leave and the coin price approaches zero, the project team uses this to shift the heavy operational pressure and all market risks caused by the price drop onto the loyal retail investors who remain.
Under the banner of decentralization, is the handover of block production a genuine underlying network innovation, or is it a setup for the project team to gradually withdraw and prepare to run?
⚠️Risk reminder: Content related to virtual currency is only personal opinion sharing and does not constitute investment advice.Why does $ADA require more patience during a market rebound?
ADA is still on the list of mainstream crypto assets. The valuation of a public chain requires a continuous cycle of applications, developers, and users; a single price rebound cannot replace this evidence.
If ecosystem activity and capital retention do not improve in sync, but the coin price continues to outperform, the risk of expectations running ahead of realization will increase.Keyed Nonces solve congestion but do not automatically provide privacy
Regular account transactions execute in nonce order; if a prior transaction is stuck, subsequent transactions may wait together. Keyed Nonces allow the same sender to use independent sequences for different transaction streams, suitable for multiple users sharing a privacy account, parallel application operations, or separating critical payments from ordinary transactions. This reduces mutual blocking and provides a structural basis for privacy systems to hide single-user traces, but it does not automatically conceal amounts, addresses, or contract calls. If the application still publicly links all behaviors, changing the nonce structure alone cannot anonymize the user. For the $ETH ecosystem, the value lies in the protocol providing a foundational component better suited for parallel and privacy applications; products still need to combine proof systems, address strategies, and network-layer protections. One cannot package an underlying usability improvement as a complete privacy solution, nor ignore its real function just because it does not solve all problems.
It may also allow transaction systems to place high-priority operations in independent sequences, avoiding a low-fee transaction blocking liquidation or cancellation. The significance of parallel capability is reliability first, then speed.
Parallel nonces are traffic diversion, not an invisibility cloak.Tonight, the non-farm payrolls report is coming out with great impact
At 8:30 PM, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non-farm payrolls report. This report will be a key basis for investors to judge whether the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates for the second consecutive time. The small non-farm ADP data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. private sector added 90,000 jobs in September, exceeding economists' expectations and significantly increasing from the revised 36,000 in August. Tonight's non-farm data will directly affect whether there will be another rate hike this year.
During China's long holidays, overseas markets often experience a holiday effect. This time, there is a frenzy of rising prices across the board. Bitcoin has once again broken through the $86,000 mark. The main reasons are twofold: first, the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman released cautious policy signals, reducing market concerns about aggressive rate hikes; second, institutions have raised their target price for this year to $113,000, citing continuous ETF inflows.
However, close attention is needed as Bitcoin's monthly chart has reached a strong resistance level. Structurally, it still leans bullish, but the rebound lacks volume support and is relatively fragile. If tonight's data exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike this year will rise again, leading to panic selling and a further sell-off. As long as it does not break the previous high of 87,500, we will continue to be bearish and short.