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People often ask me why accounts of this size keep their contracts empty for years. It's not that I have no opinion—it's that there are too many visible cards now and too few certainties. The yen just broke below 160, and Japan could intervene at any time. Once the carry trade unwinds, the first to get drained will be risk assets like $BTC; on top of that, there's trouble in the Middle East, and Friday still holds the August non-farm payroll report. With such incomplete information on the table, the only rule at the card table is: don't go all in, wait to see the flop.
I'm bearish, but being bearish doesn't mean you have to catch the falling knife bare-handed right now. Staying empty is also a kind of bet—betting on patience. Are you anxious with full positions now, or watching the show with empty ones?$180 million liquidated in one hour amid US-Iran conflict: Is cryptocurrency a safe haven or a risky asset?
On August 31, due to the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, the crypto market experienced intense short-term volatility, with about $180 million worth of contracts forcibly liquidated across the network within one hour. Long positions liquidated amounted to approximately $173 million, almost a one-sided bloodbath for the bulls.
This once again raises the old question: Is cryptocurrency a safe haven asset or a risky asset?
Two conflicting views
The "safe haven" camp believes: Bitcoin has a limited supply and is decentralized, so it should rise like gold during geopolitical conflicts. Today's Bitcoin surge past $79,000 seems to confirm this.
The "risk" camp argues: Cryptocurrency is inherently a highly volatile risk asset. During global panic, investors sell all risk assets to convert to cash; in March 2020, Bitcoin once plunged 50% in a single day.
The truth is more complex
In reality, cryptocurrency behaves differently under different scenarios. Mild tensions may drive capital inflows; extreme panic can trigger sell-offs; financial sanctions may benefit it long-term; liquidity tightening puts pressure on all risk assets.
Advice for investors
1. Do not use leverage to bet on geopolitical events; the $180 million liquidation is a lesson.
2. Do not treat cryptocurrency as a safe haven; its volatility far exceeds gold.
3. Reduce leverage and minimize short-term trades during conflicts.
Short-term volatility does not change the long-term trend but is enough to liquidate highly leveraged players.
Do you think cryptocurrency will continue to rise or fall with the broader market during this conflict? I'm bullish on $ETH, yet once again I don't dare to short at the resistance level.
Last night, it surged near 2534 and then fell back, hitting a low of 2386 at one point. Honestly, what bothers me most this time isn't how much it dropped, but that I clearly saw this resistance in advance and still didn't dare to act.
Because I've been bullish all along, my first reaction every time it reached the previous high was: what if it breaks through this time?
But the recent market repeatedly tells me that high-level consolidation and a one-sided rally are completely different things.
In a one-sided market, resistance levels can indeed be crushed all the way through; but in a consolidation market, repeated tests of the previous high, failed breakouts, and subsequent pullbacks are actually more common.
So now I'm starting to rethink what "bullish" really means.
Being bullish doesn't mean you have to keep holding long positions at resistance; it certainly doesn't mean you can't short at resistance.
If around 2530 gives me a stop loss of a dozen points, but below that there's a space of dozens or even hundreds of points, this is inherently a trade worth trying. If it really breaks through, accept the stop loss; if it doesn't, at least you capture this pullback.
I used to be afraid that if I shorted, it would suddenly break through. Now I feel that what really caused my losses wasn't that dozen-point stop loss, but repeatedly seeing the right position and doing nothing out of fear of a breakout.
This time, I want to try to fix this flaw.
Do you also feel this way: clearly knowing this is resistance, but because you're bullish, you absolutely don't dare to short? #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 On the surface, $BTC and $ETH look strong. ETF inflows keep supporting prices and institutional demand remains a major pillar of the rally. But there's a question the market can't ignore: How much of this strength is organic—and how much is liquidity-driven? Right now, ETF flows are doing much of the heavy lifting while on-chain activity and ecosystem growth aren't accelerating at the same pace. That leaves the market highly sensitive to macro conditions. A hawkish Fed comment, rising rate expecI am the mid-term intelligence guy.
This week, the sentiment for $ETH is clearly divided.
The spot ETF has seen net outflows or zero inflows for nine consecutive trading days, with about 420 million withdrawn. After the hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, funds shifted towards BTC and cash;
ETH/$BTC dropped to 0.031, down over 40% year-to-date. On-chain TPS is crushed by Solana, derivatives have experienced major liquidations, and the Ajna vulnerability adds more security and regulatory shadows.
But don’t be scared off by the short term. In August, ETFs still attracted a total of 1.42 billion, with BlackRock’s ETHA accumulating over 12.7 billion; Russia’s Sberbank is preparing to include ETH as loan collateral, and institutional adoption is expanding. EIP-8141 is advancing account abstraction, L2, RWA, and tokenization narratives remain, and Hayes points directly to this as a catalyst for institutional entry.
My judgment: short-term pressure is real, but the mid-term fundamentals haven’t collapsed. Watch ETF flows and L2/RWA implementation closely; the pullback is a chip exchange, not the endgame.
$SOL
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
Latest data
This week, employment indicators such as ADP, initial claims, and non-farm payrolls are released in concentration, causing September rate hike expectations to fluctuate with the data. Market $BTC 77390.
Market consensus
Stronger data tends to boost rate hike bets, suppressing risk assets; weaker employment raises easing expectations, making the market more likely to warm up.
Underlying logic analysis
Wash has already prioritized inflation, with employment only as a reference. Even if employment cools down, as long as inflation remains stubborn, tightening options will not be completely closed.
Personal view (personally leaning towards a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
Short-term volatility is likely to amplify; no need to bet on direction with every piece of data, patiently wait for the macro mainline to become clear. $SNDK "expectation gap," not "performance gap."
SanDisk's Q4 FY2026 revenue reached $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year, with EPS at $39.25 (only $0.29 in the same period last year), and gross margin soaring to 84.6%—the data is explosive. The problem lies in the next quarter's revenue guidance midpoint of $10.55 billion, which is below analysts' expectation of $10.8 billion. When a stock has ed over 460% within a year, the#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults The quieter the market, the more pronounced the gap between assets. 🟠 $BTC is more like the defensive core of the market. It has deeper liquidity, higher institutional involvement, and relatively lower price volatility. Recently, BTC ETF funds have flowed back again, becoming an important support factor for the market, but BTC is generally characterized by relatively easier risk management and short-term explosive potential that may not match high-beta altcoins. 🔵 $ETH and $SOL are on a higher risk curve. When market liquidity expands and funds return to risk assets, they often offer stronger upward resilience. In the recent market, SOL's performance has been especially driven by ETF funds and a rebound in risk appetite. 🟣 $XRP, $OKB, $DOGE, and small- and mid-cap altcoins are trading higher Beta currencies. When prices rise, they may run much faster than BTC. But when the market turns—📉 the pullback can also be even more intense. This is the most important risk issue in the current market: it's not about which coin is rising the fastest, but whether you can withstand the risk when it falls. --- 📊 Recent market data shows that Bitcoin Dominance remains at a high level, while the Altcoin Season Index continues to lean toward the "Bitcoin Season." This means that although funds have started to focus on some high-beta assets, the market has not yet formed a full rangeTechnology Information
AI Earnings Reports: Dell, Broadcom, and Snowflake will disclose this week. Focus on whether server and network equipment orders can translate into profit and cash flow, whether AI cloud can form stable subscriptions, and observe if AI prosperity can spread from chips to a broader range of tech stocks.
SpaceX: Morgan Stanley predicts 3.5 trillion in revenue by 2040, while Musk believes it can be reached by 2033. The divergence lies in the speed of commercialization; long-term space business needs order cash flow verification.
Anthropic: IPO expected in September-October, market valuation expected at 1-2 trillion. Key points to watch are the prospectus revenue quality, computing power costs, customer concentration, and the ratio of new to old shares.
Storage: SanDisk + Kioxia plan to invest over 31 billion in Japan to expand 3D-NAND production, with the northern factory mass-producing in fiscal year 2029. AI storage is logical, but beware of oversupply caused by expansion; track orders, capacity, and cash flow.$ETH 's sharp surge last night and the steep drop this morning
are the result of a fierce clash in a short time between bullish short squeeze sentiment and macro/geopolitical negative factors.
Essentially, this is a game between institutional buying of spot ETFs and selling in the derivatives market along with macro risks.
#DailyOrbit Over the weekend, $BTC pulled up to 79300 and then continued to decline, essentially a false breakout caused by low liquidity: institutions and market makers left the market over the weekend, and the order book depth was 30%–40% thinner than on weekdays. A small amount of capital could push the price to resistance levels, creating a "breakout" illusion, but lacking real buying support.
#DailyOrbit The most interesting thing about ETH right now is not how much it has risen, but that funds and price are in conflict.
My conclusion: moderately bullish in the medium term, but do not chase in the short term.
On August 28, the US ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of about $102 million, with BlackRock ETHA contributing about $83.8 million in a single day. Institutional funds are indeed still buying.
#DailyOrbit 🚨 $OKB IS STUCK UNDER $115 — BUT THE BULLISH STRUCTURE IS STILL ALIVE.
$OKB previously bounced from around $98 to $120, pulled back to $109, recovered toward $115, and is now hovering near $113.
What matters to me is simple: $109–110 has continued to hold.⌛️
So far, the 4H structure hasn’t broken down.🥏
And $115 is becoming the real battleground. Every time $OKB reaches it, sellers show up and push price.
#DailyOrbit My conclusion may make many people uncomfortable: most of them are not the true Bitcoin insurance as I understand it. At the very least, if your purpose in purchasing insurance is to receive compensation in case of unknown technical system failures, hacking, digital attacks, or human vulnerabilities, then you must read the terms very carefully. Because most policies I see have a core issue: 👉 once technical risks are involved, insurance may immediately lapse. --- 🧠 hardware or technical risks like Coldcard made me rethink one thing: if your Bitcoin security depends entirely on some hardware, software, hosting system, or complex technical architecture, then the real question should be: if the technical architecture itself is flawed, does insurance actually pay or not? Among the many policies I read, many exclude situations like the following from coverage: ❌ Cyber attacks ❌ Digital compromise ❌ Unauthorized system access ❌ Technology failures ❌ Social engineering ❌ Certain forms of credential compromise In other words: Your Bitcoin was stolen due to a technical vulnerability? Insurance may not cover it. Your private keys are due to a digital attack or systemThe simultaneous decline of $BTC, $ETH, and $XAUT reflects a wave of cash liquidation. During strong macroeconomic volatility, investors tend to withdraw capital from all highly liquid assets to hold cash (USD) or meet margin calls. The main reasons for the price drop are the surge in the strength of the USD and interest rate pressure: When the USD appreciates sharply or US bond yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年
Morgan Stanley's latest research report presents a highly imaginative long-term valuation forecast, maintaining an "overweight" rating on SpaceX with a target price set at $300. The institution estimates that this space company will achieve an annual revenue as high as $3.5 trillion by 2040. The entire optimistic forecast is based on two core premises: Starship completing its technological iteration to achieve low-cost, high-frequency large-scale launches; and the completion of a new base in Louisiana, continuously releasing space transport capacity for the coming decades.
However, Musk does not agree with the investment bank's conservative timeline and publicly shared his own judgment on the X platform. In his estimate, SpaceX reaching $3.5 trillion in revenue will most likely occur around 2033, a full seven years earlier than Morgan Stanley's prediction.
Looking closely, both parties actually agree on the long-term growth ceiling for SpaceX; the real divergence lies in the speed of commercial realization. The key points of market contention focus on three things: when Starship will move beyond the experimental phase to truly start delivering commercial orders; when the Starlink business completes global coverage, bringing stable cash flow from overseas government and enterprise orders; and the rapid maturation of supporting AI businesses, forming a new revenue curve.
This also poses a critical question to the market: should this accelerated growth expectation be factored into current valuations? Capital simultaneously chases the grand narrative of space commerce while maintaining a rational wait-and-see attitude. No matter how good the story is, it ultimately needs data to land—future launch frequency, actual order scale, and positive operating cash flow are the most concrete measures to validate SpaceX's value. Investment banks focus on a steady long-term cycle, while Musk is betting on explosive growth driven by technological breakthroughs. The time race in the space commercial track has just begun.
If you want to create a complete financial tweet suitable for direct publication, the work mode can include options for viral headlines, image ideas, and topic tags. Would you like to switch to that processing mode? My conclusion: Most are not Bitcoin insurance as I would define it. Here's why: ❌ If Bitcoin is lost due to a tech stack failure, many policies exclude coverage. ❌ If you're socially engineered into sending funds, coverage often disappears. ❌ "Cyber attacks of any kind" are frequently listed under exclusions. Yet these are some of the biggest risks Bitcoin holders face. Before buying any Bitcoin insurance: 1️⃣ Identify your actual threat vectors. 2️⃣ Read the POLICY wording, not the marketing. 3Made $73,000 in 50 minutes.
A user bought 300 SPY put options expiring the same day last Friday for about $17,000.
His entry was based on SPY's price movement at the time and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's speech at Jackson Hole.
Walsh mentioned that the U.S. economy and employment remain stable, financial conditions are not tight, but inflation is still significantly above the 2% target. Recent months' data are insufficient to prove that inflation has truly come down. If this continues, the Fed will need to take action.
The takeaway for him was that the expected easing might not come, and there could even be a rate hike again in September. After the speech, U.S. stocks initially rose, but rate hike expectations and short-term Treasury yields began to climb, and SPY's morning gains gradually weakened.
Around 11:10 a.m., as the signals from the speech aligned with the market, he judged that SPY would turn down next and bought 300 put options expiring that day, costing about $17,000.
SPY then continued to fall; these same-day expiring options are very sensitive to intraday movements, and the price of the 300 contracts quickly rose.
By noon, he sold all the contracts, with the position value rising from about $17,000 to about $90,000, ultimately making $73,509.
$BTC $XRP has demand, but for the $XRP ETF to surpass the $1 billion mark, the market needs more sustainable capital flow. Unlike $SOL, XRP does not have a native staking mechanism to generate additional yield for investors. Therefore, the growth momentum of the $XRP ETF will largely depend on long-term price expectations, institutional adoption levels, and spot buying demand. Bitwise is currently a strong candidate, but the remaining journey will require truly stable capital inflows. The $1 billion milestone is thus still a battle of demand and the confidence of longer-term institutional capital.Today's market situation doesn't look scary on the surface. The total market capitalization has dropped about 0.9%, which is not a day of obvious sharp decline.
But one data point is very unusual: the 24-hour trading volume surged by about 55%. In other words, the price hasn't moved much, but money suddenly started exchanging more intensely. This kind of market is often more worth watching than big rises or falls.
Because it indicates the market is doing one thing: turnover. If it were just a normal pullback, the trading volume would usually gradually decrease.
Because the chasing sentiment fades, more people become cautious, and trading naturally cools down. But today is not like that. The price only slightly fell, but the volume clearly expanded, indicating the market is not calm.
On one side, some are selling, and on the other side, some are actively buying. So this volume is not "no one is watching the market,"
but rather people are scrambling to rotate their positions. At times like this, two types of capital are most likely to appear. The first type is those who made money earlier.
They see the sentiment still high, with a greed index at 74, and are more willing to take profits while the heat hasn't fully cooled. The second type is those entering later.
They see the price hasn't dropped much and think this is just normal consolidation, even interpreting the volume increase as "the market is not over yet." Thus, the market shows a very typical state: some are selling on sentiment,
and others think the opportunity has come and are buying. This is why the price hasn't dropped sharply for now,
but the trading volume suddenly exploded. If I were a large investor, I would really like this environment. Because truly comfortable selling or rotating#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
NVIDIA's impressive earnings report has already proven to the market that global computing power demand remains in a high-growth cycle. However, a mid-term major test for the AI industry chain has just begun.
This week, the AI sector earnings relay continues. On September 1st Eastern Time, Dell Technologies was the first to announce its results, followed closely by Broadcom and Snowflake on September 2nd. NVIDIA represents the upstream chip end of AI, while Dell and Broadcom are in the next link of computing hardware, and Snowflake represents the cloud software track. The earnings results of these three companies will test whether the AI wave can successfully propagate from chips outward.
On the hardware side, the market's focus is no longer just on order volume. Whether the large procurement orders for custom AI chips, network equipment, and AI servers can ultimately be converted into solid operating profits and positive cash flow for companies is the biggest highlight of this earnings report. In recent times, major companies have heavily invested in purchasing computing hardware, and these high expenditures are continuously eroding profits. The market is eager to see AI hardware investments begin to enter a return phase.
On the software side, Snowflake carries another important verification task. Whether cloud data services can secure more stable and sustainable subscription revenue, and the willingness of enterprise customers to pay for cloud AI services, will determine if the AI market can spread from hardware to the software sector.#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
This week, the AI industry chain earnings relay continues, with Nvidia already delivering results that exceeded expectations. The certainty of computing power demand has been validated by the market, but the story cannot stop at the chip level.
Next, Dell, Broadcom, and Snowflake will successively disclose their earnings. Dell will appear on September 1st Eastern Time, followed by Broadcom and Snowflake on September 2nd. In my view, this round of earnings reports is a critical window to test whether the AI dividend can spread outward.
On the hardware side, the market will focus on two things regarding servers, network equipment, and custom AI chips represented by Dell and Broadcom: whether the order scale can maintain high prosperity, and more importantly, whether the high-growth orders can truly convert into profits and cash flow. Many companies have received AI-related orders, but rising costs and supply chain pressures will squeeze profitability; revenue growth alone is far from enough.
On the software side, Snowflake offers another observation dimension. For cloud data business, it is important to see whether AI-driven data processing demand solidifies into stable subscription and usage revenue. AI large models generate massive amounts of data wildly, but if it is only short-term pulse traffic without conversion into sustained payments, the valuation logic of software companies will be discounted.
Nvidia has proven the boom of upstream chips, but now the market is asking a core question: will AI capital expenditure spread from simply buying GPU chips further to complete servers, network communication equipment, and then to enterprise-level software?Fed rate hike expectations are heating up.
Walsh stated: Inflation above 2%, broad financial conditions not yet restrictive, employment close to full employment; weakening forward guidance, no commitment to a rate hike in September.
Market reaction: Probability of a September rate hike rose to 57.5%‑58%, two-year US Treasury yields increased, the dollar strengthened; US stocks, gold, BTC, and ETH all retreated simultaneously.
Policy logic: The overall tightening direction remains unchanged, the timing of rate hikes depends on subsequent inflation, employment, and financial condition data.
Two major events this week
September 4 Nonfarm Payrolls (key data before FOMC)
Strong data: reinforces rate hike expectations, BTC/ETH under pressure;
Weak data: cools rate hike expectations, favorable for long positions;
Focus also on wage data, rising wages are also bearish for risk assets.
Europe MiCA regulation implementation, Revolut delists USDT
Tether has not obtained MiCA authorization, European compliant platforms no longer support USDT, funds shift to USDC and EURC;
This is a localized liquidity contraction, not a USDT collapse; it will cause increased slippage and amplify market volatility, intensifying price fluctuations.
BTC technical chart
Previously surged near 80500 forming a double top M pattern, inherently prone to correction, macro news triggered adjustment.
Key support: 75500‑77000 range
Holding: bears digest, rebound repair opportunity exists;
Breaking down effectively: further downside to 74000‑75000.#Intensive Employment Data Releases Put Waller's Policy Stance to the Test Folks, this week is the real showdown.
The U.S. employment data barrage—JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, initial jobless claims, and August nonfarm payrolls—four reports clustered together, making the labor market the core pricing basis for September policy expectations. After Waller's Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a September rate hike surged to nearly 60%. If the data weakens again, this fire might be extinguished.
Recap: July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly dropped by 23,000, with May and June revised down by a total of 103,000. Waller emphasized that inflation remains above 2%, financial conditions are not yet restrictive, and the focus continues on price stability. The message is out, but the market will watch the data closely to reprice each item.
For BTC, weaker employment data and rising unemployment would reduce the probability of a September rate hike, giving BTC a chance to retest above 80,000. Strong employment data and rising wages would support Waller's stance, reigniting rate hike expectations, and BTC could pull back to 75,000 or even lower. There likely won't be much volatility early in the week; the direction will be clear the moment the nonfarm payrolls are released. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP The grid has held for 13 days, and I've come to understand one thing
Sandisk dropped from 1814 to 1462, with an unrealized loss of 333 U. It's not true that I'm not worried, but looking back, what exactly is this grid earning?
It's not earning money by predicting the right direction, but by profiting from market fluctuations. As long as the price oscillates between 990 and 2174, the grid captures the spread layer by layer. In 13 days, the grid earned 34 U, which isn't enough to cover the unrealized loss, but it proves this logic is working.
The real risk of the grid is only one: a one-sided move without a rebound. If the price suddenly falls below 990 without bouncing back, all unrealized losses will become realized losses, and the liquidation price at 965 will also be breached.
So now I don't worry about short-term ups and downs, nor do I fantasize about breaking even in one go. The only two things I need to confirm are: the liquidation price is far enough away (965), and the grid is still functioning normally (averaging 1500 arbitrage trades per day). As long as these two conditions remain, I will keep running it.
Every strategy has market conditions where it makes money and conditions where it loses money. The grid isn't afraid of volatility; it fears uncontrollable one-sided moves. Be clear about what money you are making and what market you fear.
$SNDK #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
This week's employment data is a key variable for September's policy pricing. I believe the market is repricing rate hike expectations, but the cooling trend is hard to reverse.
July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June data were cumulatively revised down by 103,000. This is not a single-month fluctuation but a signal of substantial cooling in hiring demand.
Wash clearly stated in his first Jackson Hole keynote speech that inflation remains above the 2% target, overall financial conditions have not yet reached restrictive levels, and monetary policy should continue to focus on restoring price stability. After the hawkish tone, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike jumped from about 35% to nearly 60%, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and gold and BTC were pressured simultaneously.
JOLTS job openings → to see if demand continues to weaken
ADP employment → to observe private sector hiring momentum
Initial jobless claims → to check if layoffs are accelerating
August nonfarm payrolls → the final pricing anchor
If August nonfarm payrolls continue to fall short of expectations, even if Wash's stance remains hawkish, the probability of a rate hike will be pushed back by the data, and BTC and gold will likely see a recovery window. Conversely, if employment data unexpectedly strengthens, rate hike expectations will further solidify, and risk assets will have little short-term upside.
The cooling trend in the labor market has been confirmed; Wash's hawkishness is more a statement against overheated market expectations. If this week's data continues to weaken, it will be a typical buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact point, and rate hike trades may be nearing their end.
@OKX星球 War is the market's most brutal catalyst
As the US and Iran clash again, the tension in the Strait of Hormuz just started to rise, and $CL surged from around 83 to 85.65 in one go.
The market won't wait for missiles to land, nor does it care who is right.
It will first price in the "possible disruption of crude oil supply."
But war is not so friendly to the crypto space. Many treat BTC as digital gold, but when sudden conflicts actually occur, the first reaction of funds is often to sell high-volatility assets and recover liquidity.
So while crude oil is rising, $SOL has dropped from 107.48 to 100.32.
What’s more troublesome is the latter part: the conflict pushes oil prices up, which raises inflation, making it harder for the Fed to ease. Once US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen accordingly, tech stocks and the crypto market will continue to face pressure.
Of course, geopolitical market moves can reverse quickly.
Today a missile pushes oil prices up; tomorrow a statement about "preparing for negotiations" might crush the risk premium back down. Those chasing news may seem to move fastest but are often the ones most likely to get caught off guard.
War is indeed a catalyst for the market.
But what it catalyzes is not only profits, but also inflation, panic, and the cost borne by countless ordinary people.
The market will not shed tears for anyone; it only prices in every bit of panic.
#Employment data intensive release, Wash policy stance under scrutiny
#BTC high-level volatility, stronger linkage with gold
#US-Iran military confrontation escalates, crude oil supply risk heats up #Intensive Employment Data Releases Put Waller's Policy Stance to the Test
This week is packed with employment data. On Tuesday evening Beijing time, JOLTS job openings; Wednesday, ADP private employment; Friday, August nonfarm payrolls. On September 11, there's CPI, and from the 15th to 16th, the FOMC meeting. Waller at Jackson Hole described employment as full employment: unemployment rate at 4.1%, most people wanting to work can keep or find jobs, supply barely increasing so monthly gains naturally skew low. July nonfarm payrolls actually decreased by 23,000, private sector added 30,000, government cut 53,000, unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. He also prioritized prices over employment, with PCE at 3.7% year-over-year. The market prices in a 55-60% chance of a rate hike in September, while Goldman Sachs' baseline remains on hold.
My view is simple. Waller's test is not in his speech, but whether this set of data will contradict "employment is not bad, financial conditions are not tight." If nonfarm payrolls weaken again, the probability of a rate hike will retreat; if wages heat up, the 60% chance will become firmer. Risk assets should not yet mark the calendar as if the rate hike has already happened. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
After Bitcoin surged past 80,000, it did not continue advancing relentlessly but began oscillating back and forth at a high level.
Previously driving the market upward was the continuous net inflow of funds into US ETFs for 9 consecutive days, with institutional buying pouring in nonstop. But on 8-28, the trend changed, and ETFs turned to net outflows, temporarily pausing this wave of institutional relay.
Here's something interesting: when institutions took a break, on-chain retail activity surged to a nearly two-year high, with retail funds stepping in.
Another signal I've been closely watching recently: BTC's movement is becoming increasingly synchronized with gold, while its correlation with the Nasdaq has weakened.
Does this mean Bitcoin is gradually developing an independent market trend, with its safe-haven attribute gaining more recognition? Honestly, market opinions are very divided right now.
Some believe this reflects a shift in the logic of major asset allocation, with BTC moving closer to digital gold;
Others think it's just a short-term resonance caused by current geopolitical sentiment, and the market will revert to old patterns after this phase.
The biggest question now is: after ETF buying cools down, can retail and spot buying alone sustain the current high-level range?
I wonder what everyone thinks. Do you see this round of linkage with gold as a long-term trend or just a short-term effect? Feel free to discuss.The U.S. airstrikes in the Strait of Hormuz were the direct trigger.
In the early hours of August 31 local time, U.S. Central Command confirmed an attack on two Iranian rocket launchers in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first time since late July that the U.S. publicly admitted to attacking Iran.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard immediately announced on social media that they had launched missiles at U.S. bases in retaliation, claiming that the attack on Laqa Island had caused multiple casualties, including civilians. The geopolitical conflict escalated instantly.
The market reacted directly and dramatically: about $180 million was liquidated across the network, with $173 million in long positions. BTC fell to around $77,000, and ETH fell below $2,400. Meanwhile, WTI crude gapped up about 2%, and Brent crude returned above $90 per barrel. Gold opened lower, and the market is rapidly shifting from risk assets to safe-haven assets.
Wash's hawkish remarks serve as a deeper backdrop.
At the previous Jackson Hole annual meeting, Fed Chair Wash sent a hawkish signal, reiterating that the fight against inflation would continue and the possibility of another rate hike was reserved. The probability of a rate hike in September soared from 35% to over 60%, with Bitcoin falling from $81,455 all the way down to around $77,000. News of geopolitical conflicts was amplified in a weekend market already with thin liquidity and a bearish direction.
Old Zhang summarized: The seeds planted by Wash, the fruit of U.S. airstrikes. Geopolitical conflicts ignited the fuse, but the source of the powder was the already fragile market structure after rising rate hike expectations. Liquidity was thin over the weekend, and the bulls' stampede amplified the decline. Essentially, it was macro#伊朗称海峡仍关闭，原油运输成谈判筹码
Garibabadi publicly stated: The Strait of Hormuz is currently "completely closed." Iran has reached an understanding with Oman regarding vessel passage, but "will not enter the implementation phase until the US fulfills its commitments."
Iran is in no hurry to reopen because the prolonged closure of the strait puts pressure on the US and also causes losses to Iran. However, reopening unconditionally would be tantamount to admitting that extreme pressure tactics have worked. More importantly, over the past two weeks, the US military has quietly opened a route on the southern side, with 15 to 20 oil tankers passing daily, transporting nearly 10 million barrels per day, with over 80% of vessels bypassing the northern route controlled by Iran. Iran's actual control over the strait is weakening; if it does not turn "opening the door" into a bargaining chip, this card will be wasted. So this is not a sign of weakness but an upgrade of the bargaining chip—reshuffling Hormuz from a "military card" into a "negotiation card."
The market immediately reacted. On the evening of August 30, Brent crude oil in the dark market broke through $88 per barrel, and Bitcoin simultaneously surged, briefly surpassing $78,000.
Iran is saying, "I can open it, but you have to offer something in return." The problem is, the US is unwilling even to negotiate. Whether this door opens or not depends not on Iran's urgency but on how long oil prices can hold above $88.$ETH 's sharp surge last night and the steep drop this morning
are the result of a fierce clash in a short time between bullish short squeeze sentiment and macro/geopolitical negative factors.
Essentially, this is a game between institutional buying of spot ETFs and selling in the derivatives market along with macro risks.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Is the Federal Reserve setting a FOMO trap?
$BTC holds around $78K, while $ETH is weaker, making this rebound far from convincing. After the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chair Kevin Walsh emphasized that inflation risks remain, raising expectations for a rate hike in September.
Currently, the biggest catalysts are employment → PCE → Fed expectations → Treasury yields → ETF fund flows. If these factors align, $BTC may hold $78K, and $ETH could also rebound. If they turn unfavorable for crypto, "FOMO then sell-off" could become the market's most painful trap. $SOL $TRUMP $DOGE $ETH market is in a state of contradiction, with both bulls and bears searching for direction:
· Key battle: $2,400. Many analysts believe that if Ethereum can firmly hold the key psychological and technical level of $2,400, it indicates that buyers are still in control. This level is seen as the last line of defense for short-term bulls.
· Stunning liquidation leverage. In the past 24 hours, ETH has been the asset with the most severe liquidations across the network, with total liquidations reaching $54.1 million, of which 85% were short positions liquidated. This means that as long as the price moves slightly upward, the short positions will be forced to liquidate, potentially driving a short-term rebound. Conversely, if ETH falls below $2,388, the cumulative long liquidations on major exchanges will reach as high as $903 million, implying the market could collapse instantly.
· Range-bound consolidation, direction unclear. From a technical perspective, ETH is currently consolidating within a large range of $2,380 - $2,525, with its movement highly correlated to Bitcoin. RSI has fallen from overbought levels, bullish momentum is weakening, representing a typical "night before choosing direction." The market has just validated a typical "pump and dump" with action. Just the day before, a certain team injected $TRUMP unilaterally into the Meteora liquidity pool, creating a bullish atmosphere; before the words were out, all the USDC in the pool had been withdrawn, securing profits. Although the chart does not show direct signs of a dump, this unilateral pool injection tactic essentially just makes the sell-off more covert.
What is even more intriguing is that this is not the first time. Reviewing the token's historical performance, every seemingly strong rebound ultimately became a window for liquidity exit. The current market buying logic is almost entirely based on the expectation that "Trump will continue to loudly call trades." However, on-chain data signals the exact opposite: every public call is often accompanied by signs of the team cashing out at the top.
The real sword hanging overhead is the timeline. On the 18th of next month, 28.7 million $TRUMP will be unlocked, representing a potential selling pressure of about $77 million at the current price. This means that even if the price stabilizes in the short term, the subsequent selling pressure may further increase. Some short sellers have already started positioning, waiting for this milestone.
In the face of this situation, emotional chasing of price increases is clearly unwise. Rather than being driven by short-term fluctuations, it is better to calmly examine the unlocking schedule and on-chain capital flows before making judgments.
Risk warning: Token unlocking and liquidity operations carry significant uncertainties. Please assess risks rationally and make decisions cautiously. $TRUMP#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
This week, the U.S. employment data will enter a dense release period, with JOLTS job openings, ADP private employment, initial jobless claims, and the August nonfarm payroll report coming out one after another. This labor market report card will be the core reference for the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path in September.
Looking back at earlier employment signals, July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, combined with a cumulative downward revision of 103,000 jobs for May and June. A series of revised data have signaled a gradual cooling in hiring demand, and signs of a turning point in the labor market have begun to emerge.
At the Jackson Hole Symposium, Waller's debut speech delivered a hawkish signal to the market. He clearly stated that current inflation remains above the 2% target, the overall financial environment has not yet entered a restrictive zone, and monetary policy should still prioritize restoring price stability. Following this speech, the market-implied probability of a September rate hike quickly rose from 35% to nearly 60%, U.S. Treasury yields increased, and risk assets such as gold and Bitcoin simultaneously came under pressure and declined.
The upcoming batch of employment data will become a two-way stress test: on one hand, verifying the endogenous resilience of the U.S. economy; on the other, observing whether the labor market cooling trend can continue. The final strength or weakness of the data will directly determine how much policy maneuvering room Waller's hawkish anti-inflation stance has left. Subsequent market volatility is worth close attention.#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
The highlight of this week’s market is undoubtedly the intensive U.S. employment data, which will directly test Waller's policy stance.
Next, we will successively see JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, initial jobless claims, and the highly anticipated August nonfarm payrolls. Honestly, this set of employment data basically sets the tone for the Fed’s policy expectations in September.
Looking back at previous data, signals have already been released: July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and combined with downward revisions of 103,000 for May and June, it is clear that U.S. hiring demand is cooling.
However, Waller’s remarks at Jackson Hole were hawkish; he clearly stated that inflation remains above the 2% target, financial conditions are not tight enough, and monetary policy focus still needs to suppress inflation. After this speech, the market’s probability of a September rate hike surged from 35% to nearly 60%, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and gold and Bitcoin simultaneously came under pressure and declined.
So this week is very critical. We need to watch two things: whether economic resilience still exists, and whether the labor market cooling is truly taking effect.
If employment remains strong, Waller’s hawkish logic will be further confirmed, and the crypto market will continue to face pressure; but if employment data weakens significantly, it will limit his space for tough anti-inflation measures, and market sentiment will see a turnaround.
For crypto traders, do not blindly open heavy positions this week; every piece of employment data could cause drastic market fluctuations. The steering wheel of the market’s direction is temporarily in the hands of U.S. labor data.Looking at the index performance, the previous US trading day was not weak: $SPY rose 0.47%, $QQQ rose 0.42%, and $NVDA (Nvidia) also posted a 1.32% gain. However, if you look at the intraday structure, the signals from the market are not as optimistic as the index gains. SPY and QQQ both retreated from their intraday highs, closing near their day's lows; Nvidia hit a high of $229.26 and finally closed at $217.55, also near its intraday low. Meanwhile, $TSLA (Tesla) fell 3.89%, $MU (Micron Technology) dropped 3.51%, and $SNDK (SanDisk) fell 6.96%. Although the index continued to rise, high-beta tech stocks and some semiconductor stocks have already cooled off first. This is a typical structure of "index stability with internal risk appetite declining." 1. US stocks closed higher on the surface, but funds did not continue to chase highers SPY peaked at $775.30 and finally closed at $769.35; QQQ peaked at $724.13 before closing at $716.43. Neither index fell below the previous trading day's closing price, so the market still has support, but funds are not actively taking hold of intraday highs. Nvidia's performance better reflects this divergence: the stock opened high and continued to rise, but eventually almost returned to the intraday low. Although it closed with a 1.32% gain, it actually showed a clear rally and pullback. If market risk appetite is in a comprehensive recovery phase, you should usually look at indices and tech leadersYesterday, the US-Iran situation escalated again, with the US military striking Iranian targets, followed by missile retaliation from Iran, rapidly intensifying the geopolitical conflict.
The market's first reaction was very direct: risk aversion sentiment rose, risk assets came under pressure, and cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH simultaneously experienced significant plunges.
Many people ask: Isn't BTC "digital gold"? Why does it fall when war breaks out?
Because in the short term, BTC still behaves more like a high-volatility risk asset. When the market truly panics, liquidity is the primary concern, not long-term value.
More importantly, crude oil.
Brent crude oil has climbed back near $90, and Asian stock markets have clearly weakened. The Japanese Nikkei index fell over 2% at one point, and the South Korean stock market also dropped more than 2%.
If the US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, especially if the Strait of Hormuz faces substantial risk, further oil price increases could push global inflation expectations higher again.
And what does rising inflation mean?
It means the Federal Reserve's rate cut space may be squeezed, or the market might reprice "higher rates for longer," which is unfavorable for risk assets like BTC.
So, I would not rush to buy the dip next.
The key level to watch for BTC is whether it can stabilize again around $78,000.
If it can quickly recover, it indicates this drop was more of an emotional shock; if it fails to hold and oil prices continue to rise, BTC may need to guard against further support testing.
War is just the trigger; what truly determines BTC's trend are the dollar, interest rates, liquidity, and capital. $ZEC privacy narrative, 24h increase of 4.46%, OI surged 11.86%, Cryptopanic overseas sentiment heat rapidly rising. Risk point: once the privacy narrative news heat cools down, even if OI remains, the coin price will quickly fall back.
$SOL: Popularity is not driven by news hype, DefiLlama's TVL and DEX trading volume continue to accumulate, representing fundamentals slowly being realized, making the market trend much more sustainable.
$DOGE: The meme sector has not yet exploded, 24h slight increase of 0.68%, liquidation pressure is not large, memes often catch up in the later stages of the market, so do not have overly high expectations for DOGE at this stage.
#BTC high-level consolidation, stronger linkage with gold
#EarningsObserver: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns under further scrutiny
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK The most interesting thing about ETH right now is not how much it has risen, but that funds and price are in conflict.
My conclusion: moderately bullish in the medium term, but do not chase in the short term.
On August 28, the US ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of about $102 million, with BlackRock ETHA contributing about $83.8 million in a single day. Institutional funds are indeed still buying.#BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults $ETH 's sharp surge last night and the steep drop this morning
are the result of a fierce clash in a short time between bullish short squeeze sentiment and macro/geopolitical negative factors.
Essentially, this is a game between institutional buying of spot ETFs and selling in the derivatives market along with macro risks.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Over the weekend, $BTC pulled up to 79300 and then continued to decline, essentially a false breakout caused by low liquidity: institutions and market makers left the market over the weekend, and the order book depth was 30%–40% thinner than on weekdays. A small amount of capital could push the price to resistance levels, creating a "breakout" illusion, but lacking real buying support.#BTCGoldCorrelation Looking at the index performance, the previous US trading day was not weak: $SPY rose 0.47%, $QQQ rose 0.42%, and $NVDA (Nvidia) also posted a 1.32% gain. However, if you look at the intraday structure, the signals from the market are not as optimistic as the index gains. SPY and QQQ both retreated from their intraday highs, closing near their day's lows; Nvidia hit a high of $229.26 and finally closed at $217.55, also near its intraday low. Meanwhile, $TSLA (Tesla) fell 3.89%, $MU (Micron Technology) dropped 3.51%, and $SNDK (SanDisk) fell 6.96%. Although the index continued to rise, high-beta tech stocks and some semiconductor stocks have already cooled off first. This is a typical structure of "index stability with internal risk appetite declining." 1. US stocks closed higher on the surface, but funds did not continue to chase highers SPY peaked at $775.30 and finally closed at $769.35; QQQ peaked at $724.13 before closing at $716.43. Neither index fell below the previous trading day's closing price, so the market still has support, but funds are not actively taking hold of intraday highs. Nvidia's performance better reflects this divergence: the stock opened high and continued to rise, but eventually almost returned to the intraday low. Although it closed with a 1.32% gain, it actually showed a clear rally and pullback. If market risk appetite is in a comprehensive recovery phase, you should usually look at indices and tech leadersAfter NVDA released its earnings report, I added some more MU shares. This time, Nvidia's earnings actually gave me a pretty interesting signal.
Everyone is focused on NVDA's revenue beating expectations again and AWS adding 2 million more GPUs, but I paid more attention to one detail: NVDA's Q2 gross margin was 75%, and the Q3 guidance dropped to 74%, partly due to rising memory costs. #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults BTC did not continue to crash over the weekend, but it also did not reclaim 80K. The market's focus has now shifted from "chasing the rally" to "verifying the real support at 77K–78K": The ETF suddenly turned to -$201.9M last Friday, and Warsh clearly put inflation back as the top priority, indicating that short-term macro pressure is significantly higher than a week ago.
① BTC: Stable around 78K over the weekend, but 80K remains a resistance
This morning, BTC is roughly around $78,100–$78,200, with little change in the past 24 hours. After failing to break 81K on Friday, the structure is now very clear:
77K–78K = primary support zone
80K = level that must be reclaimed
81K–86K = real heavy resistance zone above
I'm not in a hurry to look at higher targets now. If BTC cannot firmly reclaim 80K, talking about 85K is meaningless.
② ETF: This is the variable to watch most closely today
Farside final data confirms:
On August 28, BTC Spot ETF net outflow was -$201.9M.
Among them:
BlackRock IBIT -$33.4M
Fidelity FBTC -$49.7M
ARKB -$114.9M
Whereas the previous day, August 27, was still +$242.3M.
So this is not simply a "slowdown in inflows," but a clear reversal in direction#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
This week, the U.S. will consecutively release JOLTS, ADP, initial jobless claims, and August nonfarm payrolls.
The market is so focused because Wash just emphasized at Jackson Hole that inflation remains above the 2% target, and monetary policy must still prioritize price stability.
1. If employment remains stable, Wash will be more confident.
Wash's current logic is simple: inflation hasn't returned to target, and the labor market hasn't shown obvious signs of a sharp slowdown yet.
So as long as this week's employment data holds up, the market will be more convinced that the Fed still has room to stay hawkish.
2. The problem is employment is already showing signs of cooling.
July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and May and June data were cumulatively revised down by 103,000.
This indicates that hiring demand is weakening.
If upcoming JOLTS, ADP, and nonfarm data continue to be weak, the market will revisit the discussion: will tightening to curb inflation end up hurting employment even more?
3. What really gets decided this week is how much rate hike space remains.
After Jackson Hole, market expectations for a September rate hike have clearly increased, and U.S. Treasury yields have risen accordingly.
So this week's employment data is not just ordinary data; it’s more like a test of Wash's hawkish judgment.
If employment is strong, his stance will be more supported; if employment weakens significantly, the space for further rate hikes will be compressed.
What the market is really waiting for now is whether the data can prove that the U.S. economy can still withstand higher interest rates. After Nvidia's earnings landed, Dell and Broadcom took over as the core keys to verifying whether AI demand can spread to servers, networks, and enterprise software. The market conflict focuses on the matching degree between the spillover effect of computing power and the high valuation of tech stocks.
On the eve of earnings releases, Dell fell about 2% this week, Broadcom dropped over 1%, and Snowflake declined nearly 1%, indicating that long positions are actively retreating to avoid risks during the earnings verification period. In terms of driving factors, institutional positions are most sensitive to the growth rate of AI software subscription revenue, followed by the year-on-year growth rate of orders for servers and network equipment, and lastly the transmission of macro risk appetite.
The bullish scenario is based on Dell's earnings on September 1 proving smooth AI server deliveries, and on September 2 Broadcom and Snowflake demonstrating the ability to convert network hardware and cloud data subscriptions into revenue. If Dell and Broadcom's orders continue to expand and Snowflake confirms accelerated subscription revenue, risk appetite in the tech sector will be restored, driving funds to flow back into the hardware and software chains.
The failure signal for this bullish scenario is hardware order growth meeting expectations but AI conversion rates on the software side stagnating, which would cause valuation increases to be limited to a very few leading manufacturing segments, making it difficult to drive overall sector recovery.
The bearish scenario occurs if enterprise software subscription conversion falls short of expectations, or if the growth rate of server and network equipment orders shows signs of slowing. Once earnings cannot support current high valuations, the position squeeze effect will quickly reverse from the software side to the network hardware side, triggering a phased valuation correction in the tech sector.
The failure signal for the bearish scenario is that although valuation multiples come under pressure after earnings are announced, the guidance from related companies significantly exceeds expectations, thereby quickly digesting high valuation risks through earnings certainty.
In the next 7 days, key focus should be on Dell's AI server order guidance on September 1, as well as Broadcom's network equipment orders and Snowflake's subscription revenue conversion data on September 2.
#Tectonic遭操纵，Cronos暂停出块 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验Today, Bitcoin's low dropped to 769, you can try to enter a small position between 769-773 to go long
Resistance is at 790-792
Keep your position light, keep your position light, keep your position light — important things said three times #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $OKB is at 110 now. Early this morning, the US-Iran conflict escalated, putting overall market pressure. BTC dropped from 78,000 to 77,400, and OKB followed, falling from 114 back to around 110, down more than 3 points. This kind of geopolitical event is a typical black swan shock, driven by short-term sentiment and unrelated to fundamentals. On the X Layer side, TVL is still at 116 million, and the ecosystem fund has just been established; these won't disappear just because of tensions in the Middle East. In the short term, it depends on whether the 108-110 range can hold. If it holds, this pullback is a buying opportunity; if not, it may go lower. After all, it bounced from 107 to 116 in the past few days, rising nearly 10 points, with many profit-taking positions. Using bad news to wash out some positions is actually healthier. Just hold and watch for now, wait until the situation becomes clearer, no rush to act. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC $SOL