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Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks combined with escalating Middle East tensions have led the market to reprice "high interest rates + high oil prices," putting pressure on Nasdaq futures, with Asian chip stocks leading the sharp decline.
Currently, I am more bearish on semiconductors, focusing on SOXL. Do not short directly; wait until the US stock market opens. If the rebound fails to reclaim last Friday's high, consider shorting or going long on SOXS during the bounce; place the invalidation point above the previous high, with the first target at last week's low.Anomalous phenomenon: BTC-ETF experiences phased outflows, while ETH-ETF maintains net inflows against the trend
After the hawkish plunge at Jackson Hole, an interesting capital divergence emerged: BTC spot ETFs saw single-day capital outflows, whereas ETH-ETFs maintained continuous net inflows, with BlackRock ETHA as the main buyer.
Many wonder why institutional funds are entering ETH amid a macro bearish environment?
Breaking down two types of capital attributes
In $BTC-ETF, there is a mix of many swing trading institutions. Once the Federal Reserve signals hawkishness, this portion of capital quickly takes profits and exits, causing outflows on big down days; however, large long-term pension positions have not been massively sold off.
The new funds in $ETH-ETF are for phased accumulation on pullbacks, betting on two expectations: ① subsequent staking ETFs bringing allocation dividends; ② a high-beta ETH catch-up rally after future rate cuts.
But this capital is risk appetite-driven and less stable.
Historical data repeatedly confirms: ETH-ETFs often have continuous inflows for multiple days, but if the market weakens further, concentrated redemptions occur. In other words, "buy the dip, but run if it dips further."
The market outcome is: spot institutions are accumulating ETH on dips, but derivatives market leveraged longs are continuously liquidated.
Spot is buying, contract funds dare not enter, resulting in a "decline with support, rebound without strength" frustrating oscillation.
Key observation going forward: if ETH-ETF shifts from continuous inflows to continuous outflows, it indicates the confidence of these dip-buying institutions has collapsed Today's $ETH is around $2,420, with a 24-hour range of approximately $2,395–$2,531. It has risen steadily from about $1,916 on August 18, marking a significant phase gain; however, after pulling back from the high of $2,511 on August 27, ETH has clearly entered a period of high-level turnover. So the most interesting question now is not "Can ETH still rise?" but rather: Has ETH this time truly transformed from a trading asset back into a portfolio asset in the eyes of institutions? I believe some signals have already appeared. First is the ETF. In the past week, the US spot ETH ETF saw net inflows of about $697M, marking one of the strongest weeks since 2026; earlier single-day data also showed very clear net inflows into ETH ETFs. The importance of this is: Previously, ETH's rise largely depended on internal crypto market funds. Now, if ETFs continue to absorb funds, it means some capital is gaining ETH exposure directly through traditional financial accounts. This will change the logic behind ETH's price increase. Because institutions won't go all-in just because of a big bullish candle like retail investors; they care more about liquidity, regulation, custody, sources of yield, and long-term asset allocation value. And ETH is precisely in the process of gradually fulfilling these aspects. The second change is that ETH is increasingly becoming the "on-chain financial infrastructure." You see, what is truly important on Ethereum now is no longer the NFTs from a few years ago.One year ago at this time, the market was still betting with a 99.3% probability on a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
And now?
CME shows the probability of two rate hikes this year exceeds 50%.
It took only one "Warsh era" to shift from a consensus on rate cuts to a consensus on rate hikes.
Before the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, three forces are making their final moves.
🔥 First force: The rate hike camp (CME + BNP Paribas + 3 FOMC members)
Latest data from CME "FedWatch": Probability of holding rates steady in September is 43.1%, cumulative 25 basis point hike probability is 56.9%.
Probability that the Fed holds rates steady until October is 29.3%, cumulative 25 basis point hike probability is 52.5%, cumulative 50 basis point hike probability is 18.3%.
September rate hike probability surged from 39.9% on August 21 to 57%.
In July's FOMC, 3 members already supported a 25bp hike. Internal divisions are widening.
BNP Paribas expects three consecutive hikes starting in December.
This is not speculation; the market is betting with real money.
❄️ Second force: The hold steady camp (4 smart money addresses on Polymarket)
On Polymarket, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in September is 52%, and the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 48%, with contract trading volume exceeding $66.6 million.
Note a detail: 4 addresses invested $105,400 betting on "no rate ceiling increase after September," with an average buy-in probability of 58.9%, lower than the current market price of 63.5%.
At the peak of rate hike expectations, they are betting against the trend to hold steady.
This is not gambling. This is smart money trading against CME.
🏛️ Third force: Political intervention camp (Trump's camp)
On Wednesday, Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House and again urged the Fed to cut rates as soon as possible, saying the interest costs borne by the U.S. are too high.
He insisted that even strong economic data should not prevent the central bank from adopting a more accommodative policy stance.
Every 1 percentage point rate cut equates to about $600 billion in reduced costs for the U.S.
Trump's rate cut rhetoric, combined with smart money bets on Polymarket, forms a rare long-short showdown.
Key variables:
Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls: Expected increase of 55,000 jobs, unemployment rate 4.1%. Analyst Anna Wong said Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole increased the likelihood of a September hike, and the weak August payrolls may not be as decisive as usual.
Next Wednesday's CPI: August inflation data, Goldman Sachs expects core CPI month-over-month increase around 0.2%.
ISM data: Tuesday manufacturing and Thursday services "price paid index" — more likely to affect Warsh's nerves than Nonfarm Payrolls.
Current crypto market status:
Bitcoin briefly dropped to $77,000 after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, a short-term decline of 3%.
The August 29 speech triggered $487 million in crypto asset liquidations, affecting 97,691 traders.
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $78,000.
Rate hike expectations suppress risk appetite. U.S. Treasury yields rise, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
One year ago, everyone was betting on rate cuts. What happened?
Now everyone is betting on rate hikes — are you really sure this time is different?
Before the FOMC meeting on September 15-16, these three forces will have their final showdown.
Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls will reveal the truth. $BTC $ETH $XAU #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 8月30日，Cronos 验证者冻结整条区块链。 24小时前，Fogo 做了同样的事。 再往前一周，Cosmos Labs 向所有运行 Cosmos EVM 模块的链发出紧急通知：要么升级，要么停机。 三种不同的攻击路径，三种不同的网络，却指向了同一个最终方案： 停链。 这可能是2026年加密行业最值得思考的问题之一： 当真正的危机到来，一条号称“去中心化”的公链，为什么最后还是要靠一群验证者“拔网线”？ 一、Cronos：20分钟，7500万美元 Cronos 上最大的借贷协议 Tectonic 遭遇攻击。 攻击者盯上的，是流动性极低的治理代币 TONIC。 套路并不新： 拉高价格 → 制造虚高抵押品 → 借出真实资产。 攻击者在约20分钟内将 TONIC 价格拉升约100倍，再利用膨胀后的代币作为抵押品，从借贷池借走 cbBTC、USDC、WETH 等资产。 链上研究者估算，潜在借款规模约 7500万美元。 但 Cronos 验证者反应非常快。 整条链被冻结时，攻击者只有约 600万美元通过跨链桥转移到以太坊，剩余约6000万美元被困在已经停止出块的链上。 这是一场成功的止损。 但#就业数据密集公布, Wash's policy stance is put to the test. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Walsh made his hawkish debut, setting the tone for the recent market: curbing inflation comes first, and monetary policy is unlikely to be accommodative. After the speech, expectations for a rate hike in September soared from 35% to nearly 60%. US Treasury yields rose, BTC followed with a sharp pullback, quickly dropping from above 80,000 to test the low near 76,900, intensifying market volatility. This week will see a round of intensive employment indicators: JOLTS job openings, ADP small nonfarm payrolls, initial jobless claims, and August nonfarm payroll data released one after another. This set of employment data will become the most important pricing benchmark for Fed policy expectations in September. Looking back at previous figures, July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, while May and June employment data were sharply revised downward, totaling 103,000, signaling a cooling labor market. But Walsh's statement breaks simple logic: even if employment weakens, as long as inflation does not clearly fall back to the 2% target, the Fed will not easily switch to easing. The current financial environment is still not tight, and anti-inflation remains the policy focus. The key points for the upcoming market are very clear: ✅ Strong employment data: economic resilience is sufficient, inflation rebound risks are rising, rate hike expectations are further strengthening, risk assets are under pressure, BTC is likely to continue weak and volatile markets; ✅ Employment data is significantly weaker: Labor force cooling is confirmed, limiting Walsh's hawkish stance. Rate hike expectations are declining, which may trigger a recovery rebound. The short-term market is in a macro-sensitive window, with prices likely to fluctuate back and forth with data expectations, at 7767Robinhood Chain's performance over the past two months has actually provided a very clear direction for other public chains.
The imagination for permissionless asset issuance. Not relying on airdrops and point-based competition, but letting the market decide what to issue and trade. Issuing new assets + distributing mature assets might be the next phase worth focusing on for public chains.
Every new type of asset issuance method has driven the birth of a bull market:
1. 2017 — ICOs dominated by Ethereum;
2. 2020 — IDOs dominated by DeFi;
3. 2023 — the inscription movement born on the Bitcoin chain.
If the Robinhood ecosystem continues to expand, the first to benefit may not be the projects best at storytelling, but those protocols that can get capital flowing and make new asset issuance and trading easier.
There are only two targets, which are $PONS and $UNI In the same market, $SOL and $DOGE have taken completely opposite paths, while $BTC quietly consolidates around 78,000. This divergence is more intriguing than a one-sided market.📊
I still hold $SOL, which I bought at $76, currently with an unrealized profit of about $5,000. Looking back at August, SOL rose a total of 46.9%, while DOGE dropped 7.2% this week. Bitcoin surged from 64,000 to 81,000 at the beginning of the month, an increase of over 20%, but has barely moved this week.
Capital is quietly shifting—from meme coins to mainstream public chains. When traditional financial institutions like Charles Schwab enter the market, they choose SOL over DOGE, which is more tangible than any candlestick signal. Institutional preferences often indicate longer-term pricing logic.
It is worth noting that Wash recently emphasized inflation risks, and market expectations for a September rate hike are heating up. With macro variables and sector rotation combined, the divergent market may continue. Holders need to be more patient and also beware of high-level volatility.⚠️
Risk warning: The crypto market is highly volatile. This article does not constitute investment advice; please make decisions rationally. Institutional funds are reshaping the boundaries of the crypto market, and this is no longer a narrative dominated by a single asset. The latest developments show that Charles Schwab's crypto platform is expected to open broader channels for SOL, AVAX, and LINK, having already earned the trust of millions of investors. This means that, following Bitcoin and Ethereum, more digital assets are gradually entering the traditional financial landscape.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs recorded positive capital inflows on August 27, with BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP all favored by the market. These two factors combined outline a clear trajectory: traditional finance's acceptance is shifting from tentative observation to systematic deployment. Capital is no longer entering sporadically but with scale and institutional posture.
However, this expansion is not without cost. The influx of diverse assets enriches allocation dimensions but also amplifies sources of volatility—different tokens vary in liquidity, regulatory status, and market depth, making the rhythm of capital flows potentially more uneven. For investors, opportunities and noise often coexist; the key lies in discerning which are the underlying trends and which are merely transient ripples.
The market structure is quietly evolving, requiring observers to exercise more patience and composure. Risk reminder: This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Please rationally assess your own risk tolerance. HYPE has $800 million unlocking, but I won't short directly
HYPE has an upcoming unlock of about 9.92M tokens, but I won't short just because of the headline "$800 million unlocking."
The mainstream market view is simple: on September 6, core contributors unlock tokens, supply suddenly increases, and HYPE is likely to be dumped.
My judgment is different: what really determines selling pressure is not "how much unlocks," but "how much is actually claimed and sold."
Tokenomist shows that the next unlock on September 6 is indeed for core contributors, about 9.92M HYPE. At the current price of about $80, the nominal value is close to $800 million.
Sounds scary, but in the previous similar batch, the plan in March was also 9.92M, and the actual claimed amount was only about 173,000 tokens, which is about 1.75%.
So, "9.92M unlocking" should never be directly equated with "9.92M immediately dumped."
On the other hand, Hyperliquid itself still has ongoing buyback demand. Public statistics show that since the end of 2024, the cumulative buyback scale of HYPE has been quite considerable.
Currently, with HYPE around $80, my plan is simple:
If it falls below 78 and actual claims significantly increase, I turn cautious;
If it holds between 78–80 and claim volume remains low, I won't chase shorts;
If it climbs back to 83–85, I will consider the market is digesting the unlock expectations.
What really matters this time is not the headline number 9.92M, but how many tokens truly become sellable after September 6 Trump announced taking majority control of Venezuela's 65 billion barrels of oil, claiming it to be the largest oil deal in history. The market reaction was restrained because Venezuela's infrastructure is aging, and the oil facilities require billions of dollars and several years to restore production capacity. Short-term production increase is unrealistic. This is futures, not spot; the market prices current supply and demand, not capacity ten years from now. $CL On the chart, CL is consolidating around 84.47. MACD is flat at the zero line, KDJ is neutral to slightly strong, direction unclear, but liquidity is key. The second largest short on-chain took a loss of $140,000 to close the short position at 09:01 today, and 10 minutes later reversed to open a long position of $5.51 million at 85.19. This veteran, who has accumulated $246,000 in profits, is directly telling you that shorts are starting to get nervous at this level. Looking at the liquidation map, long and short liquidation intensity is balanced near 85.5. The first resistance above is at 86.5; a breakout targets 87.66 to 88.73. The intraday support below is at 84.34; if broken, a pullback to 82 to 83 is expected. Strategy: try long near 85 with targets from 85.5 to 86.5; if it falls below 84.5, reverse to short with targets from 83.5 to 82.4. The whales have already voted with real money. Do you believe the story or the positions? #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解
Many people look at ETH and only focus on one thing:
ETH/BTC.
But I believe what we should really look at is whether ETH has become the “second choice” in institutional allocations.
Currently, ETH’s market cap is close to $300 billion, with a market share of about 11%. Recently, there has been a significant inflow of funds into the US spot ETH ETFs, with related products absorbing about $185 million in a single day on August 21.
This actually signifies a change.
In the past, when institutions entered the crypto market, the first step was to buy BTC.
Now, more and more capital is asking:
Besides BTC, is there a second asset that truly has network effects, asset scale, and an application ecosystem?
The answer is still highly concentrated on ETH.
So the biggest logic behind ETH is not a “catch-up rally.”
A catch-up rally means the market ends once the rally ends.
ETH is now trying to complete an identity upgrade:
From the “second largest cryptocurrency” to the “second institutional-grade digital asset.”
If this identity is truly established, ETH’s future valuation method may no longer just follow BTC’s ups and downs but will have its own capital cycle.On-chain data shows that Bitcoin has accumulated about 1.03 million potential selling pressure in the $83,000 to $86,000 range, mainly from long-term holders in the previous cycle. For this group, if the price returns to this area, it means close to breaking even or a small profit, so they are more likely to buy out in batches during the rebound, forming a solid supply wall above. For the current market to continue its upward trend, the spot side must show sufficient support; otherwise, prices are easily repeatedly suppressed when this range is reached. Meanwhile, short positions in the futures market are also a key variable driving prices higher—only when a large number of short positions are forced to close out, creating forced buying force, can prices gain extra momentum while taking over spot positions. In other words, the sustainability and height of this round of rally do not depend entirely on the bulls' willingness but more on whether bears are willing to "cooperate" at high levels. From the trading rhythm perspective, the main players currently prefer to absorb selling pressure through sideways consolidation rather than directly pushing prices up aggressively. This "trading time for space" approach allows long-term holders to gradually sell in a relatively stable environment and continuously lure short-selling funds during the consolidation, using the power of short stop-losses to support the price. It can be said that this is a relatively effortless choice under current capital conditions, but there is also a hidden risk—whether the volatility will further expand depends entirely on whether the main players have sufficient mobilizable funds. Once funds tighten, the sideways movement may turn into a bearish decline$XAU
Gold plummets $200! Large bearish candle shakeout, don't blindly cut losses
⚠️Risk warning: This is only a market opinion exchange and does not constitute investment advice. Contract trading carries extremely high risk, please control your position size.
Chart of XAUUSDT perpetual 1-hour timeframe shows two rounds of devastating sell-offs:
First round: rapid dump from the high of 4634, crashing below 4500;
After a brief consolidation between 4450-4480, the second round broke down further, hitting a low of 4405, current price 4428.3.
MACD death cross downward, bearish momentum releasing intensively, a large number of leveraged contracts liquidated.
Many think this plunge is due to Fed rate hikes, but that is not the case.
The Fed's statements did not clearly indicate a rate hike or cut, and they scrapped forward guidance altogether. Just raising rate hike expectations caused market panic and a stampede.
The US is now trapped in a debt deadlock:
Tax hikes, spending cuts, rate cuts, and rate hikes—all four paths are blocked, with national debt surpassing 40 trillion. The market hopes AI technology will boost the economy and dilute debt, but AI is a long-term "pre-sale" with a 10-year cycle, and short-term returns cannot be realized.
In contrast, gold is a tangible "ready property," not relying on anyone's credit promises.
Global central banks continue large-scale gold purchases, increasing holdings by 288 tons last quarter, a 60% year-on-year surge.
Retail investors: panic stop-loss after seeing $200 drop
Investment banks: repeatedly calculating rate hike probabilities
Central banks: continue hoarding gold in the spot market
Short-term candlesticks are the weather; debt fundamentals are the terrain. Weather changes, but terrain is hard to alter.
Key levels on the chart
🔹Resistance: 4480-4520 (first layer of trapped resistance), strong resistance at 4634
🔹Support: 4405 (this round's low, core defense level)
Short-term trend is weak, don't rush to bottom-fish. Wait for support confirmation or a breakout and stable hold above resistance before acting.
Two signals must appear simultaneously for the bull logic to truly fail:
1. AI productivity data is genuinely reflected in official statistics
2. US Treasury yields autonomously fall and stabilize
Before that, most big drops are emotion-driven shakeouts.
💬 Interaction: Holding long-term funds, do you choose AI long-term expectations or gold for hedging? Let's discuss in the comments.
#黄金 #XAUUSDT #高盛称美联储9月加息可能性非常低 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The next AI earnings test is less about confirming compute demand and more about measuring its breadth. Dell on Sep 1, followed by Broadcom and Snowflake on Sep 2, should offer a useful cross-section of servers, custom chips, networking and cloud data.
My read: durable sector support requires more than strong orders at one layer. Growth that also converts into profit, cash flow and steadier software revenue would make the broader valuation case more credible. If strength remains concentrated in chips, the AI cycle may still be robust, but its benefits will look narrower. Not advice, just analysis.
#BroadcomDellAIResultsBrothers, it's Monday, and liquidity returned as soon as the US stock market opened.
$BTC surged up to 79387 before being slammed down, with a low of 76916. This wave is just the emotional release after the US stock market opened. The ETF broke a nine-day inflow streak and lost 200 million dollars on Friday, plus the sell orders accumulated over the low-liquidity weekend suddenly flooded out. It's normal to have a little pullback after nine consecutive days of inflows, don't panic. The support below for BTC is 76600-77000. My long position remains unchanged with an order at 75555 waiting to be filled; I'll enter if it hits, otherwise forget it. The upper target is still 79200-80000.
$ETH dropped quite hard this wave, with a high of 2534 and a low directly down to 2386. The Ethereum spot ETF is still seeing inflows, with about 100 million dollars net inflow for the tenth consecutive day, but it can't resist the overall market pullback, plus the negative sentiment from Cronos being attacked dragged down the entire ETH ecosystem. However, the ETH/BTC position has reached a critical breakout point. Once the market stabilizes, there is still a chance for an independent rally. I continue to hold my long position, planning to buy on a dip at 2400-2405 with a stop loss at 2375.
$SOL fell the hardest today, dropping from 107.46 straight down to 100.20, losing over 4 points. The positive news of Goldman Sachs holding positions couldn't stop the market pullback, plus the competitive narrative brought by Robinhood Chain and Ethereum L2 caused short-term funds to exit. However, SOL's governance upgrade and deflationary logic remain intact, and the V1 trading system launch on the 9th is still on the way. I have an order placed at 98-99 waiting to buy.I believe the key for $SOL this time is not short-term sentiment, but a change in the supply logic. After the governance vote passed the dual deflation proposal, the future supply of SOL will decrease, effectively reducing inflationary pressure by one notch. What's even more remarkable is that this is happening while the ecosystem is still hot: there is demand attention, and the supply side is tightening again. The market's pricing of SOL is likely to no longer just follow thematic rotations but will re-evaluate its scarcity. I wouldn't interpret this as an instant positive, but if the momentum continues, SOL has the chance to enter a new round of value reassessment. My judgment leans positive; the core depends on whether the expectation of reduced supply can sustain trading, rather than just a one-day hype.#Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
Let me tell you the honest truth from my mid-term intelligence perspective: this week is packed with employment data—ADP, JOLTS, initial claims, and non-farm payrolls closing the show. It looks lively, but the measuring stick has already been changed by Wash.
Brother Jackson Hole was very straightforward: inflation hasn't truly dropped, the 2% target is fixed, forward guidance is gone, only "discipline" is given, no GPS. Previously, the market played the "poor employment → rate cut" reflex arc, but this time it doesn't work. In his mind, 4.1% employment is considered sufficient, as long as there are no hiring freezes or layoffs, unless non-farm payrolls approach zero or turn negative, or unemployment jumps above 4.2%, he won't stop being hawkish.
As long as employment doesn't collapse drastically, Wash has the confidence to keep talking tough; the probability of a rate hike in September is nearly 60% and still holding; only if the data is really bad will it give the market a chance to ease.
Don't get swayed by single-week fluctuations in the mid-term; focus on the slopes of core PCE, oil prices, and unemployment rate—these three lines are more useful than guessing the non-farm numbers.
My conclusion: employment data is a thermometer, Wash has recalibrated the scale, if you still read it by the old red line, you'll end up eating noodles.
$BTC
$ETH Next week, OPN, HYPE, SUI, ENA, and EIGEN will unlock nearly $100 million in concentrated tokens, yet BTC violently surged and triggered liquidations late at night — is this a signal that the bull market continues, or a prelude to whales selling off on good news?
These two events might be part of the same scheme. The late-night surge triggered liquidations, with BTC jumping from 77,500 to 79,120 and ETH rising from 2,460 to 2,520 — short-term shorts were wiped out, and market sentiment instantly reversed. But the real undercurrent is the large-scale token unlock next week. Although HYPE’s $70 million unlock accounts for only 0.1%, the absolute amount is significant; the real risk lies with OPN unlocking 10% of its circulating supply, as projects with poor liquidity are easily crushed.
The late-night pump might be designed to create better selling prices for the unlocked tokens — first triggering a short squeeze to create FOMO, then distributing the unlocked tokens at a high price. If this script plays out, those chasing longs will be the last bag holders. You can follow the short-term move, but be quick in and out; don’t get attached to the fight.
Are you chasing the late-night pump, or waiting for the unlock sell-off to hit a low before acting?
$BTC $ETH $OPN $BTC did not continue straight up after surging to $81,000, currently stuck in a high-level consolidation between $77,000 and $80,000.
Since rising from around $63,000 in August, the monthly gain is still close to 30%, outperforming gold, the Nasdaq, and the S&P; however, the $80,000 level has been repeatedly tested and lost, indicating the market has shifted from a short squeeze acceleration to profit digestion and waiting for macro validation.
What has truly changed is who it moves with. Grayscale data shows Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has risen from near zero at the start of the year to over 50%, with a 30-day window even reaching 0.81; meanwhile, its correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped from over 60% to about 33%, and with the US Dollar Index it has moved to around -0.86.
It currently does not resemble high-beta tech stocks but rather trades like a scarce hard asset.
Behind this is the same macro logic: the total US debt has crossed $40 trillion, the Treasury is increasing long-term bond buybacks, the dollar is weakening, and fiat credit hedging flows are returning. Gold moves first, Bitcoin follows, marking a restart of devaluation trades rather than internal hype within the crypto community.
Stronger linkage does not mean they will always rise and fall together. Gold has low volatility and is a steadier safe haven; Bitcoin is more elastic and more easily disrupted by leverage and risk appetite.
This week’s dense employment data releases and the still-to-be-tested hawkish stance of the Fed will affect interest rate and dollar expectations, which will loosen correlations again. If $80,000 cannot hold, the high-level consolidation will extend; if gold strengthens further and the dollar continues to weaken, this consolidation is more likely to become a stepping stone for the next breakout. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Basecat 单日110万美金买盘 ，coinbase流入加速，Basecat会把风口带向base链吗？ 一起来看看数据吧！ 2026.8.31日 #Basecat 前40名持币地址数据变化 1：Uniswap ：流出 43.22% Mexc : 流出 6.83% Coinbase ： 流入 29.19% 2：前40个人地址：6人减仓，6人加仓，11人新进入 $Basecat 每日重点总结： 经过4天的沉淀，单杀再一次统计了basecat，现在看看整体数据吧，coinbase流入较之前已经加速，前40总共有6人减仓，有3人是把代币转出，还有3人是真实减仓，减仓数量中等，前40总共有6人加仓，有3人是别的地址转入，还有3个是链上加仓，但是加仓的数量很少，跟上次相比这一次前40总共有11个新人进入，总买入大约110万美金，其中知名meme玩家 Unipcs买入45万美金，有6个地址是新买入，2个地址是排名正常上升，还有3个地址是别的地址转入过来，对应跌出的11人有6个地址减仓跌出排名，还有5人是彻底清仓了，大概的数据就这些，简单的分析和拆解一下吧，本次上涨$BTC is currently in a high-level consolidation phase after a sharp surge
In the early session, it just pulled back but did not break below last Friday's low near 76800
Entered a light long position to test the waters, short-term focus is on whether it can break through around 79500
News#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults 一年前这个时候，市场还在以99.3%的概率押注9月降息25个基点。 现在呢？ CME显示今年加息两次概率超50%。 从降息共识到加息共识，只用了一个「沃什时代」。 9月15-16日FOMC会议之前，三股力量正在做最后的博弈。 🔥 第一股力量：加息派（CME + 法巴 + FOMC 3名委员） CME「美联储观察」最新数据：9月维持利率不变概率43.1%，累计加息25个基点概率56.9%。 美联储到10月维持利率不变概率29.3%，累计加息25个基点概率52.5%，累计加息50个基点概率18.3%。 9月加息概率从8月21日的39.9%飙升至57%。 7月FOMC已有3名委员支持加息25bp。内部裂痕在扩大。 法国巴黎银行预计12月起连续加息三次。 这不是猜测，这是市场在用真金白银下注。 ❄️ 第二股力量：按兵不动派（Polymarket 4个聪明钱） Polymarket上，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为52%，加息25个基点的概率为48%，该合约交易额已超过6660万美元。 注意一个细节：4个地址投入$10.54万，押注"9月后利率上限不变"，平均买入概率58.9%，低于当前63.Guys, who's the coolest guy today? $UNI（Uniswap） 。 On August 31, UNI briefly broke through $5.4, setting a new high since January 2026. In the past 24 hours, it rose more than 13%, with daily turnover reaching $600 million and open interest surging to $250 million to $400 million. But in June this year, UNI was only $2.31. In three months, it more than doubled. Why did UNI suddenly become so aggressive? First, the valuation logic has completely changed. What was UNI's biggest weakness before? Uniswap earned hundreds of millions to over a billion dollars in fees a year, while UNI holders didn't get a single cent—except for voting, they had no use. In December 2025, UNI's tokenomics reform plan was approved, with two core tasks: burning 100 million UNI+ to activate protocol fee switches. As of August 31, about 110 million tokens had been burned, with a total burn value of $630 million. Over 150,000 tokens burned in a single day set a record. For every fee Uniswap earned, it would buy UNI on the market and burn it. From "air coins" to "cash flow tokens." Second, Robinhood Chain brought incremental traffic to traditional finance. In July this year, Robinhood Chain's mainnet launched, and Uniswap was the core AMM from day one. In the past 24 hours, revenue was $4.29 million, accounting for nearly half of Robinhood Chain's fee revenue. Stock token daily trading volume was $130 million, a tenfold increase in a month. Traditional stocksDropped 4000 points in three days, how much is a word from Warsh worth?
📝 Main text
On Monday, BTC fell below 78000. Just three days ago, it was above 81000.
From Wednesday to Sunday, Bitcoin dropped nearly 5%, wiping out most of last week's gains. The reason is just one — Warsh said one sentence at Jackson Hole: "If underlying inflation does not clearly and quickly fall back, the Fed still has work to do."
The market translated "still has work to do" into the probability of a rate hike in September rising from 35% to over 60%. Then BTC plunged from 81500 to 77000.
Someone asked me, is this really bad news? I don't think so, this is a reset of expectations. Rate hikes are not news; the market fears "uncertainty." Warsh gave a relatively clear signal: if inflation doesn't come down, I will act. With the direction clear, funds actually know how to position themselves.
Now, a few situations I've observed:
First, someone is taking over. Although ETFs had a slight net outflow on Thursday and Friday, the whole week still saw a net inflow of over 900 million, and Ethereum ETFs continue to attract funds. Institutions haven't fled; they're just adjusting positions.
Second, derivatives are deleveraging. In the past 24 hours, liquidations reached 150 million USD, mostly longs. The rise was too fast before; now washing out leverage is good for the future, but the process is painful.
Third, a critical level is near. BTC is around 77000; if this level doesn't hold, the next support is at 75000. But the weekend's low-volume decline without panic selling shows bulls haven't given up yet. ETH and SOL fell in sync; ETH is at the edge of 2400, SOL at 101, both previous breakout levels.
What I want to say is: this is not panic, it's a correction. Warsh's speech is important, but if there really is a rate hike in September, the market has already been digesting it in advance. Once the sentiment is fully released, what should come back will come back.
My approach now is simple: no adding positions, no cutting losses, no guessing the bottom. Wait until BTC returns above 78000 before making moves.
Brothers, did you get swept out this round? Let's chat in the comments👇#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Employment data will be released intensively this week, putting Waller's hawkish tone from last Friday's Jackson Hole under a tough test.
Waller painted a very optimistic picture of the labor market: unemployment rate at 4.1%, initial jobless claims four-week average near multi-decade lows, labor market "consistent with full employment"; the real issue lies with prices—PCE year-over-year at 3.7%, annualized near 4.1% over the past six months, with inflation running above 2% for 65 consecutive months.
His conclusion is straightforward: financial conditions are not restrictive, prices are the current top priority; if core inflation does not "clear and fall fast enough," the Fed "still has work to do." The market immediately raised the probability of a September rate hike to nearly 60%.
The official numbers he used to support the "no worries on employment" stance are themselves loosening. July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, May and June combined were revised down by 103,000; last Friday's annual benchmark revision further cut employment through March by 79,000. The "frozen market" of low hiring and low layoffs, combined with labor force participation falling to a five-year low, looks more like weak supply and demand rather than overheating.
This week is the confrontation window: Tuesday JOLTS vacancies, Wednesday ADP, Thursday initial claims, Friday August nonfarm payrolls. If data continue to weaken and wages do not rise, Waller's narrative of "employment is met, just focus on inflation" will crack—not immediately forcing him to turn dovish, but weakening the justification for action in September. If there is a rebound accompanied by wage growth, it will perfectly confirm his framework: employment is not a constraint, and there is still room for rate hikes. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Anthropic received $8 billion from Amazon and $2 billion from Google, and before the cheers have died down, the computing power bills might crush it.
Not to pour cold water.
Imagine—what's it like when your landlord is also your creditor?
💡 An overlooked structural fact
Amazon has cumulatively committed about $8 billion in investment to Anthropic, and Google has committed $2 billion. Both are also its most important computing power suppliers.
Anthropic has signed multi-year, tens-of-billions-of-dollars computing power procurement contracts with AWS and Google Cloud.
This is no coincidence; it's the industry standard. Leading AI labs almost all sit on the knees of cloud providers—the money comes from the cloud providers, and so do the machines. 🏠 Like tenants who also owe debts to their landlord, the rent amount and whether it increases all depend on the landlord's mood.
📊 The first curtain the S-1 will lift
The market is now focused on valuation multiples: 1 trillion, 2 trillion, 3 trillion. These numbers talk about the future.
But what the prospectus will reveal is how much computing power costs eat into revenue. This directly determines whether the gross margin can emerge.
The so-called unit economics—how much net profit is made for every dollar of model service sold.
Amazon and Google are both shareholders and suppliers, so their bargaining power is naturally limited. Pricing terms are written into the S-1 and cannot be hidden.
🔗 Not just Anthropic's problem
All leading AI labs sit in the same structure: cloud providers are simultaneously shareholders and suppliers.
OpenAI relies on Microsoft Azure, Anthropic relies on AWS and Google Cloud. Cloud providers are both financiers and the only sellers capable of providing large-scale computing power.
This means—every dollar of gross profit AI companies earn, a portion flows back to the cloud providers' pockets as "computing power fees."
📖 Which three pages should the secondary market flip to
When the S-1 is released on September 7, don't rush to look at valuation multiples.
Go straight to these three pages:
• Revenue gross margin—the proportion of computing power costs to revenue
• Cash burn rate—whether the burn rate can sustain until breakeven
• Top five customer concentration—whether revenue is held hostage by a few large customers or dispersed
These three pages of numbers are more honest than any TAM story.
🎯 No matter how big AI company valuations are talked up, the computing power unit economics in the S-1 are the true touchstone.
$ANTHROPIC When the S-1 is released on September 7, don't rush to look at valuation multiples; go straight to the computing power cost page.
#Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 $BTC$BTC still controls the overall direction, but market funds are quietly shifting their focus to $ETH. The latest data shows that on August 28, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $219 million, ending a nine-day inflow streak; Meanwhile, the ETH ETF recorded a net inflow of about $102 million that day, extending the inflow streak to 10 days. This may signal a capital rotation worth watching: 🟠 BTC → continues to serve as a market liquidity and trend anchor 🔵. ETH → ETF demand is increasing, and capital attention keeps rising 🔄. BTC stability + ETH relative strengthening→ Counterfeit market activity may further rebound. I am now focusing on the relative strength of BTC/ETH. If BTC can hold near $77K and ETH breaks above $2.5K again, the next round of capital rotation may happen faster than the market expects. 👀 Don't just look at price fluctuations; what's truly worth tracking is where the money is flowing #BTC #ETH #Crypto #ETF #Bitcoin #Ethereum #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelationThis wave of a major rebound starting from 62,000 owes a large part of its success to improved expectations of overseas liquidity. U.S. Treasury yields declined, the dollar weakened, driving Bitcoin and gold to strengthen simultaneously, with continuous large net inflows into spot ETFs pushing the price above 80,000.
However, the market will not move unilaterally forward indefinitely. Recently, U.S. Treasury yields have fluctuated, and market disagreements over subsequent data have increased. Once economic data exceeds expectations and leans strong, rate cut expectations will be delayed, liquidity expectations will quickly cool down, and Bitcoin will face correction pressure.
Institutional funds are not buying nonstop either. After several consecutive days of large inflows, recent inflow scale has noticeably shrunk, with occasional single-day outflows, indicating internal disagreements within institutions and no longer a unanimous bullish view.
On-chain data shows a large number of short-term holders are unlocking profits at high levels, transferring chips to exchanges for profit-taking. Those who acquired chips at low levels are cashing in on the rebound, while late-entering retail investors take over the chips. This chip exchange at high levels inherently increases the probability of volatility and correction.
Many people now have two kinds of thoughts: one believes liquidity easing has arrived and blindly goes all-in bullish; the other sees a slight correction and immediately judges the rebound is over. Both approaches are prone to pitfalls.
Spot holders: Do not continue to add large positions at high levels; if there are floating profits, you can take partial profits in batches and keep a base position to observe key support. If support holds, continue holding; if support is effectively broken, reduce positions.
Empty position friends: Do not rush to bottom-fish; wait for data to be released and for the market to show stabilization signals before acting.
Contract players: Macro data cycles are very volatile; try to use high leverage sparingly, and if you don’t understand, stay out and observe.
$BTC Meta's massive privacy lawsuit settlement clears residual regulatory risks, boosting market risk appetite and driving $META valuation recovery, but the core current conflict remains the trade-off between high AI computing power CapEx spending and free cash flow pressure.
After the lawsuit settlement, the stock price rose instead of falling, indicating institutional funds are accounting the settlement as a one-time financial clearance; with legal risk discount eliminated, position allocation begins to tilt back toward the core business fundamentals.
The first key factor driving valuation reconstruction is the restoration of systemic risk appetite brought by the resolution of regulatory uncertainty; the second is the cash flow supported by improved conversion rates of advertising recommendation algorithms empowered by the open-source Llama ecosystem; the third factor is the narrowing losses in metaverse hardware.
The bullish scenario triggers when macro risk appetite continues and advertising business cash flow consistently covers computing power investment. If subsequent AI computing infrastructure deployment efficiency exceeds expectations, strong advertising monetization capability will drive positions to concentrate from defensive tech stocks to high-beta tech leaders.
The failure signal for this upside scenario is a secondary upgrade of antitrust policies or substantial regulatory obstacles to the commercialization path of open-source models.
The bearish scenario triggers when CapEx spending excessively suppresses mid-term free cash flow. If AI infrastructure investment fails to bring corresponding incremental advertising conversion in the short term, institutions will reduce position allocations with high valuation premiums.
Has the market fully digested the dilution effect of mid-term computing power investment on cash flow?
In the next 7 days, focus on observing the direction of institutional position rebalancing in block trades and changes in AI infrastructure CapEx budget guidance.
#Stripe财团据报退出，PayPal收跌近13% #闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验Whether BTC can provide a chance to buy on the dip entirely depends on whether Americans find jobs next week.
There is fear that employment might be too strong, giving the Federal Reserve a reason to actually raise interest rates, with institutions taking the opportunity to sell; and fear that employment might be too weak, making the market worry about economic collapse, with cash being king.
The ideal scenario is that nonfarm payrolls increase between 40,000 and 80,000, and the unemployment rate honestly stays around the expected 4.1%. Neither overheating nor crashing, giving funds a reason to continue buying.
This week is like a high-intensity exam week: Tuesday looks at job openings, Wednesday at the small nonfarm payrolls, and Friday waits for the nonfarm payrolls.
Don’t rush to enter the market; wait for these days to fully digest the interest rate hike signals, and decide whether to act after clearly seeing the reaction at key price levels.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC $ETH Night Before Nonfarm: 4 Numbers That Decide Your Friday Fate
BTC just surged to $79,000 at midnight, then dropped to $77,000 by morning
Friday's Nonfarm may be the final piece in the puzzle for a September rate hike. At this point, staying alive is more important than making money.
Three scenarios👇
Scenario A: Nonfarm > 80,000
Rate hike probability soars above 70%. BTC may retest $75,000 or even $72,000.
Scenario B: Nonfarm 30,000-60,000
Meets expectations or slightly weak. Market fluctuates with unclear direction. This is the most torturous.
Scenario C: Nonfarm < 30,000
Rate hike probability plummets. BTC may violently rebound to above $82,000. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 ZEC continues to outperform the market today, but I won't chase it now.
The mainstream market logic is simple: ZCSH has landed on NYSE Arca, institutional access is open, the privacy sector is being repriced, so ZEC can still rise.
I only agree with this logic halfway.
My judgment is: the biggest risk for ZEC now is not whether the ETF will be launched, but whether leverage has already outpaced real buying demand.
Currently, BTC is around $78,000, ETH about $2,450, SOL about $105, with only slight overall gains; ZEC, however, remains near $830–840, up about 5% in 24 hours, showing clear relative strength.
Moreover, ZCSH has officially launched, so the ETF positive factor has shifted from "expectation" to "fact." Buying ZEC now is essentially trading on how much new demand the ETF can still bring in the future.
I am more focused on the leverage structure.
Support is seen around $790. If it quickly falls back there, some high-leverage longs may be forced to exit.
Resistance is around $870–880. If it can break through with volume and funding rates are not overheated simultaneously, I am more willing to believe a second phase of the trend is starting.
So my plan is simple:
No chasing near $840.
If it pulls back to $800–810 with support, I will reassess.
If it breaks through $870–880 and holds, I accept buying a bit higher for confirmation.
If it falls below $790 and fails to recover, I will consider the strong structure to be breaking down.
I am not bearish on ZEC now; on the contrary, I am still slightly bullish.$UNI 突然启动了 这次背后的逻辑比以前更强 UNI今天一度上涨超过 16%，价格重新来到5美元附近，我觉得这一轮不能只当成普通的山寨补涨。 现在Uniswap最大的变化，是协议收入终于开始真正和UNI挂钩。 从去年底开启协议费机制以后，部分交易手续费会进入链上机制并最终销毁UNI；最近v4和更多链也开始加入。过去90天已经有大约 464万枚UNI被永久销毁。 同时最近代币化股票交易量快速增长，Uniswap一周增加了约 3.25亿美元相关交易量，Robinhood Chain上线不到两个月，通过Uniswap产生的累计交易量已经超过200亿美元。 所以现在的UNI和以前已经有点不一样了。 交易量越大，协议费越高，$UNI 销毁就越多。 如果接下来真的进入DeFi和山寨行情，我觉得UNI这种有基本面、有流动性，又开始出现通缩逻辑的老牌币，反而很容易重新被资金盯上。 📌 Title
Dropped 4000 points in three days, how much is a word from Waller worth?
📝 Content
On Monday, BTC fell below 78,000. Just three days ago, it was still above 81,000.
From Wednesday to Sunday, Bitcoin dropped nearly 5%, wiping out most of last week's gains. The reason is just one — Waller said one sentence at Jackson Hole: "If underlying inflation does not clearly and quickly fall back, the Fed still has work to do."
The market translated "still has work to do" into a September rate hike probability rising from 35% to over 60%. Then BTC plunged from 81,500 to 77,000.
Someone asked me, is this really bearish? I don't think so; this is a reset of expectations. Rate hikes are not news; the market fears "uncertainty." Waller gave a relatively clear signal: if inflation doesn't come down, I will act. With direction clear, funds actually know how to position themselves.
Now, a few situations I’ve observed:
First, some are stepping in. Although ETFs had a slight net outflow on Thursday and Friday, the whole week still saw over 900 million net inflow, and Ethereum ETFs continue to attract capital. Institutions haven’t fled; they’re just adjusting positions.
Second, derivatives are deleveraging. In the past 24 hours, liquidations reached $150 million, mostly longs. The rise was too fast before; now washing out leverage is good for the future, though the process is painful.
Third, a critical level is near. BTC is around 77,000; if this level doesn’t hold, the next support is at 75,000. But the weekend’s low-volume decline without panic selling shows bulls haven’t given up. ETH and SOL are falling in sync, ETH near 2,400, SOL near 101, both previous breakout levels.
What I want to say is: this is not panic, it’s a correction. Waller’s speech is important, but if September rate hikes really happen, the market is already digesting it in advance. Once emotions settle, what should come back will come back.
My current approach is simple: no adding positions, no cutting losses, no guessing the bottom. Wait for BTC to return above 78,000 before making moves.
Brothers, did you get swept out this round? Let’s chat in the comments👇#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK $BTC $ETH $SOL 🚨 TONIGHT’S $BTC PUMP ISN’T ABOUT WAR — THE MARKET IS TELLING US SOMETHING BIGGER.
I went back and checked the information behind tonight’s move. At first glance, it looks like a risk-off rotation, with Bitcoin breaking higher as the market treats it like “digital gold.”💎
But there’s one problem with that narrative:
Gold didn’t see the same kind of capital flow.💵
So I’m not convinced this pump is simply because of the so-called🥏$SNDK (Medium-term strong, short-term overheated):
AI storage super cycle + 93.9 billion long-term support logic, but it has moved far from the 5-day moving average. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to 1400–1450 before scaling in.
$SPCX (Bearish bias, avoid catching a falling knife):
Retraced and consolidated sideways from the previous high of 149–150, compounded by two rounds of lock-up releases on 8/6 and 8/20 putting pressure, shrinking volume, and weakening MACD. Short-term support is expected at 140.
$SKHY (Wrongly punished by macro factors):
HBM's top player fundamentals remain intact. Today's decline is purely due to the Fed's hawkish stance (September rate hike probability rising from 35% to 60%), dragging it down. Wait for rate hike expectations to cool off and a pullback to 150–155 (ADR) before positioning more securely.Brothers, waking up this morning and seeing this market, are you confused?
The celebration of just breaking through 80,000 dollars hasn't even warmed up, and Bitcoin just plunged headfirst, directly losing 78,000, hitting a low of 76,989. It's now around 77,700. Many people ask: Is this a bull retracement, or is the bull market over?
Don't rush. As a veteran who has been cut countless times in the crypto circle, today I'll break down the three layers of logic behind this drop.
First layer: The most direct trigger — the Federal Reserve suddenly changed its stance
On the surface, it looks like the US military airstrike on Iraq's Al-Faw Peninsula this morning caused oil prices to soar to 90 dollars. But that's just a catalyst. The real core is Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Warsh clearly said inflation is "still too high," and if it doesn't fall fast enough, further rate hikes are not ruled out. The market exploded instantly — the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% directly to 56.9%, once nearing 60%. The two-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.32%.
When the word "rate hike" is back on the table, all risk assets must first kneel in respect. Bitcoin? It's just the one that kneeled the fastest. $BTC $ETH $SOL #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Wang Duanniao is betting big on $OKB this time, could it really be about to make a killing? 👀
In August 2025, OKEx will burn about 65.26 million OKB tokens in one go and permanently cap the total supply at 21 million, directly mirroring Bitcoin's 21 million cap.
But what’s truly worth paying attention to is not just the "scarcity" factor.
OKB’s role is shifting from a simple platform token to becoming the core on-chain asset of the X Layer. Whether it’s on-chain transfers, DeFi, RWA, staking, or ecosystem project interactions, all could generate real demand for OKB.
Before, the focus was on how much the exchange would buy back after making profits; now, what matters more is whether X Layer actually has real users and capital inflows.
Next, keep a close eye on three variables:
1️⃣ Whether X Layer has projects that are truly up and running
2️⃣ Whether there is sustained real capital inflow
3️⃣ Whether the regulatory environment suddenly tightens
If the ecosystem really becomes active, the scarcity of 21 million tokens will further amplify the demand logic.
But if it’s just hype and no real on-chain usage, then no matter how scarce it is, it’s just "paper scarcity."
In the end, one sentence: don’t just look at the burn, look at real usage. 🔥"Jiang Feng Trading Strategy Diary" Issue 36 Last Friday, August 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Wash clearly emphasized: Inflation remains too high, and the 2% inflation target will not change. His data is also quite crucial: US PCE year-on-year was about 3.7%, core inflation is also clearly above the 2% target, and Wash believes the current financial environment has not reached a restrictive level! Market expectations for a rate hike in September have clearly increased. The latest CME Fed data shows a probability of about 63%, which is one reason BTC quickly fell from around 81,000 to 77,000. Last Friday, Bitcoin ETFs ended a 9-day net inflow, turning into a net outflow of $201.9 million, which further fueled the decline. This week, special attention should be paid to future ETF capital movements! Jiang Feng was fortunate to ride the wave twice: the first time in issue 34 with short positions near BTC80800 and 81,400, and the third in the 35th trading diary near 79,300, both of which have now reached the first target near 77,000. ETH issue 34 has achieved the first target from shorts at 2,515~2,600 and the short positions near 2,485~2,535 in the 35th trading diary! However, this does not mean that both short positions were perfectly managed, which means the subsequent market will truly continue to decline. There are many uncertainties involved. Will ETF funds continue to flow out? The Federal Reserve doesEric Trump: The main drivers driving Bitcoin's rise are no longer retail investors. $BTC The market structure may have truly changed. Eric Trump recently said something very direct about BTC: "The tides have turned." He means that in the past, Bitcoin was largely driven by retail investors, but now the real forces influencing prices are increasingly shifting to institutions. 1. From a "retail bull market" to a "institutional bull market" Eric Trump believes that many institutions that used to question crypto have clearly changed their attitudes over the past year. ETFs, corporate holdings, professional capital, and clearer regulatory environments have all deepened institutional involvement. He himself revealed that he previously established Bitcoin positions in the range of just over $50,000 to just over $60,000. 2. Is institutional entry good or bad for Bitcoin? The benefits are easy to understand. Institutional funds are larger, holding cycles are usually longer, and Bitcoin's legitimacy and mainstream acceptance will increase. But the other side is also interesting: Bitcoin initially emphasized breaking away from the traditional financial system, but now the largest incremental capital is increasingly coming from Wall Street. So the more successful the institutionalization, the more Bitcoin may become a traditional financial asset. 3. The future Bitcoin bull market may be different from before Eric Trump is still BiMusk said SpaceX's revenue might reach Morgan Stanley's forecast seven years early, and the market hasn't fully priced this in, which is quite interesting.
In the past, whenever Musk spoke, many people automatically discounted the vision. But now that SpaceX has reached this scale, the story is increasingly hard to sustain on imagination alone. Starlink, launches, government contracts, AI data centers—each segment can tell a big story, but each ultimately has to come down to cash flow.
I think the secondary market has become more realistic now: it can give SpaceX a high valuation, but it won't pay indefinitely for a "future that must happen." Especially when AI is stuffed into every growth model, investors start asking a rather sobering question: who is paying this revenue, and who keeps the profit?
The vision is still very captivating, but the books won't be moved by passion.
#马斯克回应大摩，3.5万亿美元营收或提前七年 $BTC should not be simply defined as a high-level consolidation after a sharp rise; currently, it is a differentiation window of intense long-short logic battles.
Price dipped early in the session, holding last Friday's low at 76800, lightly testing longs aiming for a breakout at 79500. This idea seems reasonable, but holding the previous low does not necessarily mean a bullish counterattack. There are many false supports within the consolidation range, and a small rebound can easily lure in longs.
We break down the three layers of the battle logic again:
🔴 Macro level: The Jackson Hole event was hawkish, raising expectations for a September rate hike. U.S. Treasuries and the dollar strengthened. This bearish factor is not a short-term one-time shock; subsequent data will repeatedly tug the market, suppressing upside space.
🟡 Institutional funds should not be judged only by impressive monthly data. The end of continuous ETF inflows and the first large net outflow are warning signals. Massive monthly inflows only represent the past; funds have begun to cash out and exit. You cannot predict future trends based on past capital dividends.
🟢 Geopolitical safe-haven support exists but is highly unstable. Once U.S.-Iran tensions ease, safe-haven buying will quickly withdraw, and this layer of Bitcoin support can disappear at any time; the correlation between gold and BTC is not permanently fixed.
In summary: Holding the low only represents a temporary short-term halt in the decline, not the start of a rebound. In high-level consolidation, supports can break at any time. When testing longs, strict stop-losses must be applied; do not blindly go long relying solely on support levels and past capital data.
Question: Is holding the low this time a short-term rebound opportunity or a trap before a second dip?
⚠️ For opinion sharing only, not investment advice
#BTC high-level long-short tug-of-war, gold correlation strengthens $BTCThe more I look at Broadcom, the more I feel it is the most easily underestimated company in this AI wave.
When people talk about AI, the first reactions are still Nvidia $NVDA, OpenAI $OPENAI, but the big companies are now spending money on more than just buying GPUs. The larger the model and the higher the inference volume, the greater the data transmission pressure inside data centers. The demand for custom AI chips is also rising, and these two areas happen to be Broadcom's strengths.
One comfortable aspect of Broadcom $AVGO is that it doesn't have to compete head-to-head with Nvidia for business. Big clients like Google and Meta want to make their own ASICs, and Broadcom can help. As AI clusters grow larger and larger, requiring faster switching chips and network connections, Broadcom can still make money. In other words, as big companies continue to increase CapEx, Broadcom is very likely to have a place.
Moreover, what I like about Broadcom is not just the AI story. It has strong semiconductor cash flow itself, and VMware complements it with software, so unlike some pure AI concept stocks that rely on imagination years from now to support valuation, Broadcom currently has real profits, cash flow, and AI orders being fulfilled.
Broadcom's concentration of major clients and AI expectations are risks, but if this round of AI infrastructure investment can continue for several more years, a company like Broadcom that benefits from both custom chips and AI networks while generating its own cash flow is one I am willing to hold for a longer time.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Not really into gossip, but judging from the situation between Sun Ge and Jing Tian, the trend has really changed. This matter is currently a hot headline on mainstream domestic media platforms and continues to ferment.
Who is Sun Ge? A big shot in the crypto circle, a gray market tycoon under border control. In the past, this kind of thing could never have fermented on mainstream domestic media platforms because the demographic of people interested in gossip is basically concentrated between the ages of about ten to forty. Most people's first reaction when seeing this content is "Who is Sun Yuchen?" and "What does he do to make tens of billions of dollars?" When this group learns that Sun Yuchen got rich quickly through the crypto circle, it will inevitably lead some of this gossip group to understand or even enter the crypto circle. Obviously, this is completely contrary to the previous suppression policies.
Not only that, recently I noticed that on Douyin, it was previously impossible to post crypto-related content, or if posted by chance, the views and likes were very few. But recently, the exposure of crypto-related content has increased exponentially, and I often see videos with thousands or even tens of thousands of likes.
Such changes must mean something we don't know is happening.
Or maybe on October 11, most of the existing funds in the circle were really cut off and fresh blood is needed?$BTC chart looks increasingly off?
Now BTC is stuck hovering around 77500, quietly dropping 1.6% in 24 hours. The hawkish risk was supposed to be priced in early, so why is it stuck sideways, neither up nor down?
Could it really be heading down one of these three paths?
Employment data falls below 100,000 coldly, the market directly bets that Walsh won’t dare to hike aggressively, the dollar and US Treasury yields turn down, and BTC directly surges to 82000-83000?
Data stuck between 100,000-150,000 lukewarm, the probability of a September rate hike is exactly split in half, BTC is trapped grinding back and forth between 78000 and 80000, wearing out both bulls and bears?
Employment data suddenly surprises strong, new jobs exceed 180,000 with wage growth, the probability of a rate hike soars above 70%, BTC turns and steps down to 76000-77000, will it probe even deeper?
Now the market assumes nearly 60% chance of a September hike. If this data weakens again, can Walsh’s previously firm "anti-inflation" stance really hold?
Before the non-farm payrolls release, BTC has been grinding high and volatile. Is this sideways movement just shaking out traders, with the real big move waiting for the data to land?
What do you think about this week’s non-farm payrolls? Will BTC surge above 80,000 or crash back to 75,000?
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $ETH #Meta stock rises after massive settlement, risk pricing reassessed
Meta has reached a massive settlement agreement on long-pending privacy and data lawsuits. After the announcement, the stock price rose instead of falling.
The market has shown with real money: the uncertainty boot has landed, which is far more important than paying a one-time financial cost.
This settlement has triggered a valuation reconstruction of Meta in the capital market:
Legal clouds cleared, releasing risk premium: Prolonged regulatory lawsuits have been a heavy shackle suppressing the valuation multiples of tech giants. The settlement allows institutions to reprice the stock purely based on business fundamentals.
Core advertising and AI algorithm moat solidified: Under the empowerment of the open-source Llama ecosystem, the advertising recommendation algorithm has greatly improved advertiser conversion rates. Strong free cash flow is sufficient to easily cover the massive settlement.
Metaverse losses narrowed and focus on computing power: While controlling hardware losses, management is fully betting on AI infrastructure. The commercial monetization path is clearer than ever.
After major legal risks are cleared, do you think Meta can leverage this AI advertising dividend to reclaim the lead among tech stocks?
$META
#Meta #USStocks #TechStocks #ArtificialIntelligence #BusinessInsightsFundamental Research Report $VIRTUAL / Virtuals Protocol (AI/Computing Power) $3.20
Essentially: Virtuals Protocol ($VIRTUAL) overall score 55/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down in three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows paid usage traces, and token value capture is realized.
Fundamental breakdown: Virtuals Protocol (token $VIRTUAL), AI/computing power sector. Focuses on AI virtual influencers/Agent Creator. Comparable to FET, TAO. Traditional computing power rental giants are AWS, CoreWeave, charging by GPU hour; A100 monthly rent is $12,000-$25,000, expensive and high threshold. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding; suppliers don’t need centralized approval; idle GPUs become available supply. Customer unit price $50-$500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, paid usage traces exist. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in last 90 days.
User side: address MAU undisclosed, DAU undisclosed, 24h trading volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier income about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level), token private/public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level), market makers and ecosystem grants are B-level, not representing long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (B-level), strategic partnerships and logo wall are D-level. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (adds +3.50% to circulation), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Must buy tokens to use product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Virtuals Protocol $3.00B, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. FDV: Virtuals Protocol $4.20B, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Annual revenue: Virtuals Protocol $2.00M, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Virtuals Protocol undisclosed, FET undisclosed, TAO undisclosed. Numbers based on public data snapshots; missing parts supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view $3.00B at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with top players. In summary: fundamentals solid (score 55/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlock dump, protocol income long-term zero, token demand relies only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Continuous monitoring: protocol fees weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above is logic and judgment based on public information, not investment advice. If core financial indicators deviate over 30%, conclusions need reassessment.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitBitcoin falls below 79,000, storage chips rise against the market trend—what kind of change is the market pricing in?
$BTC fell below $79,000, with a nearly 4% drop intraday, and ETH followed suit. Market anxiety is spreading, ETFs have seen net outflows for two consecutive days, and the greed index has plummeted. However, amid a widespread "risk-off" atmosphere, the storage chip sector has surged unexpectedly: Western Digital rose nearly 2.5%, Micron and SK Hynix followed, and Nvidia bucked the trend with a 1.7% gain.
On the macro level, rate hike expectations hang like the sword of Damocles, with the probability of a September rate hike approaching 60%, and high interest rates continuing to suppress risk asset valuations. On the funding side, the previous continuous net inflows into ETFs have been broken, with institutions choosing to lock in profits amid uncertainty, putting short-term liquidity under pressure.
But the strength in storage reveals an underlying logic decoupled from the macro environment: the AI infrastructure race is pushing storage from a "cyclical commodity" to a "strategic material" narrative. Nvidia's Q2 storage procurement commitments surged 135% quarter-over-quarter, driven by the industry reality of HBM supply shortages and NAND prices bottoming out first.
The market is repricing two things: first, the liquidity premium under macro tightening; second, the value chain restructuring brought by breakthroughs in the "memory wall" in the AI era. As the computing power arms race enters deep waters, storage is no longer a simple supporting role but a strategic bottleneck determining the winner of the next technological generation. Short-term pain and long-term certainty are fiercely clashing right now. $BTC $ETH
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 如果只看K线，最近的ETH其实有点让人纠结。 ETH在8月冲上$2,500之后出现明显回落，最近重新回到$2,400附近，$2,500已经连续成为短线最重要的压力区域。最新技术数据里，ETH的14日RSI仍然处于相对高位，说明前面的上涨动能还没有完全消失，但短线已经进入降温阶段。 正常情况下，价格涨这么多以后遇到阻力并不奇怪。 真正让我觉得有意思的是另一边： 资金并没有明显撤出ETH。 8月17日至28日，美国现货ETH ETF连续9个交易日净流入，累计流入约14.2亿美元，8月28日单日流入达到约2.26亿美元，是近10个月最强的一天。 所以现在出现了一个很有意思的结构： 价格在压力位横盘，机构资金却还在买。 这和单纯的“散户追高”完全不是一回事。 这也是我为什么没有因为ETH暂时站不上$2,500，就直接判断行情结束。 反而我更想看它下一次冲击$2,500的时候，会不会出现放量。 如果ETH能够重新站稳**$2,500**，下一步我会看**$2,600–2,650**，再往上就是前面市场留下的更大压力区。 但如果再次冲击$2,500失败，然后跌破**$2,400**，短线就要小心继