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Middle East tensions suddenly escalated in the early hours: US airstrikes on military targets near Iran's Strait of Hormuz, and Iran retaliates with missiles. As soon as the news broke, the crypto market plunged, with Bitcoin hitting a low of $76,996. Leveraged trading was extremely brutal: in just one hour, $180 million was liquidated across the network, including 173 million in long positions; Over $346 million in 24 hours, with about $73.28 million in BTC and $100 million in ETH. A large number of leveraged users who chased long positions were directly cleaned out by the market. Here's an interesting phenomenon: In the past, during geopolitical conflicts, people treated Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. But this time is different—gold and BTC fell simultaneously, not exiting a safe haven rally. Underlying logic: The core theme of the current market remains the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations. Panic caused by Middle East conflicts has led funds to prioritize selling risk assets, with Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, being prioritized for sale; At the same time, geopolitical tensions will push up oil prices, and the market will worry about a rebound in inflation, further strengthening expectations of Fed rate hikes and suppressing crypto prices. Simply put, this decline is the result of a combination of geopolitical news + leveraged forced liquidation and stampede + macro rate hike expectations. If the conflict is only limited to localized attacks, the market will likely soon return to the Fed's main data theme; But if the situation continues to escalate, it will bring a new round of volatility risks. Two key things to watch going forward: 1. Will the US-Iran conflict escalate further; 2. Key economic data such as September nonfarm payrolls and CPI remain the core drivers of the mid-term market outlook. August 3$BTC BTC fell below 78,000, $ETH ETH lost 2,400, $SOL SOL tested 100 — the hawkish aftershocks of Walsh have not yet dissipated
Good evening, brothers, the Monday market is still digesting last week's shocks.
BTC hit a low of 76,916 today. Although it rebounded in the afternoon, it was still struggling around 77,800-78,000 at the time of writing. ETH touched a low of 2,386, then rebounded to around 2,450 in the afternoon. SOL repeatedly tested the $100 integer level and is currently trading in the 101-102 range.
Walsh's remarks have not yet been fully digested by the market.
Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Walsh delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, completely overturning market expectations for the policy path. The probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% before the speech to 60%. The core message was one sentence — Walsh said, "It is difficult to describe the current broad financial conditions as tight." Former Fed Vice Chair Kohn interpreted this as: this is no longer a Fed that hikes rates "only if data proves necessary," but a Fed that defaults to further hikes "unless data argues otherwise." This reversal in logic is more unsettling to the market than the rate hike itself.
The US and Iran are at it again.
Early today, the US Central Command confirmed an airstrike on rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil responded with a rise of over 2% above $90. BTC briefly fell below 77,000 after the news, with over $200 million in long positions liquidated within an hour. The geopolitical conflict is pushing oil prices up → inflation expectations rebound → rate hike probability rises further; this chain is still unfolding.
Today's data:
About $399 million in liquidations across the entire network in the past 24 hours, with $276 million in long liquidations and $123 million in short liquidations. BTC long liquidations totaled $53.91 million, ETH long liquidations $73.34 million. Over 100,000 people were liquidated globally. Bulls are still bleeding. Regarding ETFs, the record of nine consecutive days of net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs ended on August 28, with a single-day net outflow of $201.9 million. However, the cumulative inflow for August remains as high as $3.03 billion, indicating strong institutional demand for the month overall.
What’s the outlook now?
BTC is oscillating between 76,900 and 78,600. Although there was a technical rebound in the afternoon, it is a recovery after a big drop. The upper Bollinger band forms strong resistance, so chasing the rebound blindly is not advisable. ETH rebounded from the low of 2,386 to around 2,450, and SOL repeatedly tested the $100 level. $100 is a key psychological support for SOL; if broken, it may retest the 95-97 range.
Trading strategy:
No adding positions, no cutting losses, no bottom guessing. Wait until BTC returns above 78,500 before making moves. The US-Iran conflict is still brewing, liquidity is thin over the weekend, and volatility can be amplified, so control your position size.
Brothers, did you get swept out this round? Let’s discuss in the comments👇#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Just speaking in terms of market language, today is a day suitable for being long gold and short oil.
Both of these targets are long-term strong macro assets.
If you don't want to or don't have the energy to study so much,
in fact, you only need to use two price ranges for swing trading.
WTI oil price will fluctuate between 70-90, buy low and sell high.
Gold started from 4000 and is currently in the first wave of pullback; around 4400 is a good entry point to go long, with the target to return to the 5,000 range.
The main theme of this week's market is the large and small non-farm payroll data.
Today, the US stock market is recovering from the drop caused by the hawkish remarks of Wosh last Friday, and will likely continue to recover until around Wednesday. Then, the large and small non-farm payroll data will continue to raise/solidify the expectation of a rate hike in September, and the market will continue to decline after pricing in the new data. $CL $XAUT #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The data just disclosed by Caixin is quite interesting: in the BTC options market, call options with strike prices between $80,000 and $100,000 have a notional open interest value already piling up to tens of billions of dollars.
This doesn't mean BTC will definitely reach $100,000, but at least it shows that there is capital betting in advance on the Q4 market, same for Ethereum!
What’s really worth watching behind this is the US Treasury risk. Fiscal deficits, debt, and yield pressures continue to rise, and funds are instead starting to treat BTC as a kind of "US Treasury hedge."
Even scarier is that there was just a roughly $100 million ETH long position with 10x leverage, liquidation price at $2241. This scale definitely doesn’t look like an ordinary retail investor. Plus, recently the ETF capital for Ethereum has surpassed that of Bitcoin, so positioning in Ethereum is also a wise choice!
So I’m still bullish, but I don’t think it will directly surge to $100,000 in September. In the short term, watch the non-farm payrolls; for the real big move, I’m more inclined to the latter half of Q4.
I still dare to bet on BTC hitting $100,000. $BTC $ETH As of tonight, $BTC is around $77,900, down about 1.2% in 24 hours; $ETH is around $2,446, down 1.2%; $SOL is around $102.5, down over 4%, clearly the most seriously hit among the three brothers today.
Macro continues to play the lead role: the US-Iran situation heating up pushed Brent crude oil to $90, while Warsh's hawkish remarks raised the market's probability of a September rate hike to about 58%. One is responsible for pushing inflation, the other for pushing interest rates, with risk assets caught in the middle, somewhat like "both guardians going to work together."
However, the funding side has not fully retreated. On the latest complete trading day of August 28, $BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $201.9 million, ending a 9-day inflow streak; but $ETH ETF still had a net inflow of $102.1 million, and $SOL ETF inflow was about $18.08 million. Institutions seem more like they are reallocating rather than collectively fleeing.
In derivatives, there were about $431 million liquidations in 24 hours, including about $130 million for $ETH and about $100 million for $BTC; but the total open interest in the market remains near $136 billion, and new leverage is not crazy, indicating the current phase is more of a high-level oscillation and shakeout rather than a systemic stampede.
In the short term, $BTC needs to hold key support at 76K–77K, and only reclaiming 79K–80K counts as bulls retaking the wheel; $ETH looks at 2400/2500, and $SOL must first hold 100–102. Just now, Coinbase and Webull reached a crypto infrastructure cooperation agreement to expand services into the Canadian market.
This cooperation seems ordinary, but the signal is very strong. Webull is the second largest retail broker in the US with over 30 million users and had barely touched crypto before. Now partnering with Coinbase means traditional brokers are starting to fully embrace crypto.
The Canadian market is even more interesting. Canada was the first country in the world to approve a BTC ETF, and its regulatory stance is much clearer than the US. Coinbase choosing Canada as a key expansion focus basically means "US regulation is too slow, I'll go make money in Canada first."
But I think there is another layer behind this: cooperation between retail brokers and crypto exchanges will become the next trend. Robinhood has already proven how big retail demand for crypto is, and Webull partnering with Coinbase is copying Robinhood's playbook. When Charles Schwab and Fidelity follow suit, crypto will truly become mainstream.
The speed at which traditional brokers embrace crypto is faster than we imagined.
Who do you think will be the next broker to partner with Coinbase? I bet on Charles Schwab.
$COIN #Coinbase #cryptocurrency$TAO TAO 236.6 short, marked 226.1, 50x short, +221.89%.
Spot market slightly pulled back, 50x leverage amplifies profits.
Trading relies on following the trend rhythm, not blindly betting on coins.
⚠️ Ultra-high leverage has extremely low tolerance for errors; when a rebound comes, floating profits quickly shrink, so avoid heavy positions.
Strictly follow the trading plan, don’t let paper profits control your emotions. $BTC $ETH BTC just rebounded to 79,000 a few days ago, but a wave of negative news immediately wiped out all the gains.
At the Jackson Hole meeting, Fed's Waller took a hawkish stance, with the probability of a September rate hike soaring directly from 35% to 57-60%. The PCE inflation year-on-year is 3.7%, having been above the 2% target for 65 consecutive months. Waller stated that if inflation can't be brought down, rate hikes will continue.
Upcoming data is coming in thick and fast: Tuesday manufacturing prices, Thursday service prices, and Friday's August non-farm payrolls. As long as inflation-related data is high, rate hike expectations will continue to heat up.
The logic has changed now. Previously, weak employment would lower rate hike expectations, but now inflation is the primary consideration. As long as employment doesn't collapse significantly, rate hikes are unstoppable. Additionally, the tense US-Iran situation is pushing oil prices higher, putting collective pressure on risk assets.
BTC is oscillating repeatedly between 77,000-78,000, ETH is hovering around 2,430, and SOL is leading the declines.
If BTC can't hold the 76,000-77,000 support, the downside will look toward 73,000-75,000. ETH's critical lifeline is at 2,400 $ETH $BTC $SOL OKX ranks 15th, so why do I put him first?
If you only look at the OKX profit leaderboard, Dumb Dumb Ball ranks 15th today.
But among the 100 publicly tracked Lead Traders I continuously follow, he is ATS official leaderboard No. 1: 85.93 points, FORMAL / HIGH.
The reason is not "highest earnings":
• 90-day cumulative return: +37.29%
• 90-day maximum drawdown: 6.08% (90 valid observations)
• Public lead days: 1064 days
• Public follower profit and loss: +536.93 USDT
For the same profit, the smaller the drawdown, the longer the duration, and the more consistent the follower data, the higher the research value.
This is not a copy-trading recommendation, nor does it represent future performance. What I want to study more is who puts both profit and risk on the same report card.
Data as of: 2026-08-31 20:03 (UTC+8)
Based solely on OKX public data, for research purposes only, not investment advice.On the chessboard, the priceless thing has never been the 1.6 billion that was captured, but the look in the opponent's eyes—the relief of "I finally don't have to be checkmated." Meta's move is like a standard midgame sacrifice: White trades one rook for two black pawns, temporarily easing the threat in front of the king's castle—the market immediately applauds this move. But in the grandmaster's pupils, what is recorded is not the exchange value, but the passed pawns on the board that have yet to be revealed.
On the surface, White's move doesn't seem like a loss. A payment cap of 16.68 billion, but the book valuation is marked at 18 billion, with only a 1 billion loss recorded in Q3, and not as a one-time cash outflow. Payments span multiple years, some with attached conditions. This is like simplifying the midgame position voluntarily, converting a chaotic attack into a calculable endgame, pushing the risk of checkmate to the bottom of the box. Thus, the risk premium contracts, and the stock price rises. The market's message is: tail risk is contained, the game can continue.
But a true grandmaster will remind you that the first rule of a sacrificial attack is—before giving up material, you must calculate the attack line twenty moves ahead. If you only remove one threat from your opponent but gain a permanent structural weakness in the endgame, this move is not an "exchange" but a "gift." Meta's current 1 billion loss looks like a "proactive draw offer," but it's more like castling: you hide your king in the corner, but the king in the corner can still be pierced by a rook from the open file along the back rank.
I see on the board that Black still has thousands of pawns not yet deployed. Those thousands of unresolved cases are the passed pawns on the back rank, each step advancing toward promotion; the decline in user time caused by youth usage restrictions is like a slow open file—today you don't see the rook, but twenty moves later, Black's rook will enter White's secondary back rank along this line. At that time, what will you use to block? The rook already exchanged, or the pawn structure that has been written down as a loss?
What is more intriguing is that the market has re-priced "potentially huge future payouts" as "controlled multi-year amortization," effectively declaring the midgame over and voluntarily entering the endgame. But the endgame is never about who makes fewer mistakes, but who can see through more variations. When you "simplify the position" to catch your breath, you also give up the counterattack possibilities in the complex position. The disappearance of low-priced options does not equal an advantage; it means you have lost the capital to sacrifice material for maneuvering. If unfavorable moves appear again in the future, you will have no pieces left to sacrifice.
The sound of coins dropping on the board is not a single slam, but like a chess clock ticking one tick at a time. The 1 billion loss in Q3 is only the first trigger of the timer; the following ticks will be long. True players never look at the green light called "risk premium"; they only watch the fingers yet to fall—the chain moves of state regulations, the forced responses to parental lawsuits, and the quietly changing user habits. They will force you to make moves you have not yet calculated at countless crossroads.
I don't look at the exchange value of this move; I only look at the chess clocks on the board that have yet to fall—they are still ticking. #metasettlementrepricingTo be honest, I personally believe Nvidia $NVDA is still a long-term bullish bet.
There are three bullish cards: revenue of $96.2 billion, up 117% year-over-year; net profit of $59.6 billion, net margin 62%; next quarter guidance of $108 billion, Wall Street's average target price is $323, which still has 49% upside from the current price. Technically, EMA5=219.20 is above EMA10=218.86, so the mid-term trend remains intact.
But the bears also have chips: gross margin slipped from 75% to 74%, possibly down to 71% next quarter; operating cash flow of $24.1 billion is far below net profit; accounts receivable soared to $63 billion; "The Big Short" Burry extended his short position to 2027, and short reports keep coming. After earnings, the stock first rose 8.7% then dropped 4.57% the next day, a typical "good news already priced in" scenario.
My suggestion: go long with a light position, set stop loss at 216.8 (previous day's low). The reason is simple—AI computing power shortage will last at least until fiscal 2028, fundamentals have not reversed. But the current price is stuck at the Bollinger middle band; add more only after breaking 220, cut losses if it falls below 216.8. The bias is bullish, but position must be light because although the long-short ratio favors bulls, real-time sell orders are more aggressive, signaling an imminent turning point.
Capital preservation is more important than direction; wait for the market to make the first move. $NVDA Altcoin Price Change Rankings on August 31
Gainers
1st: SKR 98%
2nd: HEMI 44%
3rd: ZORA 34%
Losers
1st: BTR -39%
2nd: MAGMA -36%
3rd: HNT -21%
SKR surged 98% today and is not far from its all-time high of 0.053, only one fold away. The nature of altcoins is that if they can break through, they will break their all-time highs. However, during the breakout process, there will be repeated spikes.
BTR plunged more than 50% from its highest point. The key is to watch tomorrow's market to see if it will completely collapse. If it does not completely collapse, it may just be a downward spike for shakeout.
Altcoins fluctuate wildly amid the overall market pullback, putting on a show. Once the market returns to an uptrend, they will be mercilessly abandoned.
$ZORA #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $RIVER I was about to go to the forum to rant, but then I checked the balance and decided against it. The market is always right. When everyone else is running, I actually feel this wave has potential.
At that time, RIVER lacked support, the sell pressure was strong, and no one caught the rebound. The back-and-forth fake moves tricked people into buying. I judged that it couldn't hold at the high level, so I gave a short idea at 1.698: don't chase the rebound if it's weak, wait to profit from the drop.
Now at 1.407, it’s been going down all the way, +343.5% in hand. This wave was really nailed. The earlier part was slow, but the outcome is really sweet.
Position management: first close 70% to lock in profits, move the stop loss of the remaining 30% to the cost price, let the profits run a bit but don’t lose this gain. Brothers, pay attention to profits.
Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding. The money earned is the realization of knowledge; the money lost is the flaw in understanding. For those who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, there will be more opportunities later, wait for the next signal before moving.
$LAB $XRP Challenge failure means losing everything overnight; trading is not gambling, high risk will eventually lead to zero
If you have little capital, you need to learn low-risk stable return trading methods, otherwise even doubling a small capital won't help you turn the tables and hold large funds
$BTC
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $ETH
What does the institution know?
It should be an institution executing the sale of about 154,300 ETH ($378 million)?!
◎ From yesterday until just now, over a day, they have successively transferred 52,739 ETH ($129 million) into 6 CEXs including Binance and OKX. Currently, there are still 101,561 ETH ($249 million) in the address.
◎ The source of these ETH: withdrawn from Coinbase at about $1,700 between 2021-2022 → then staked in Ethereum in 2023 → redeemed from staking in January last year → finally gathered into 2 wallets in the past two days and successively transferred into multiple CEXs. #Anthropic：IPO new progress, prospectus planned to be disclosed in September Dear all, the IPO schedule of Anthropic is finally clear. The prospectus will be disclosed after Labor Day on September 7, investor activities will be in mid-September, and the listing window will most likely fall between late September and early October.
Valuation discussions have soared to the range of 1 trillion to 2 trillion USD, and the previously proposed total addressable market of 30 trillion USD will also have to be verified by the public documents.
The company is also considering allowing some existing shareholders to sell old shares with the IPO, while the remaining shares will have a lock-up period of more than 180 days. This move balances early shareholders' cashing out and post-listing selling pressure. $ANTHROPIC $ZEC $BTC
After the prospectus disclosure, what really matters is not how big the TAM number is, but the quality of revenue, the pressure of computing power costs, the concentration of customers, and how the new and old shares are allocated. These details will determine whether the high valuation can be supported by the public market.Many people know Broadcom $AVGO as an AI stock, but how does Broadcom make money from AI? Actually, it can be understood as two businesses: helping big companies make chips, and then helping connect those chips.
First, ASICs. Nvidia sells GPUs that anyone can buy; but when companies like Google and Meta grow large enough, they find that some tasks run repeatedly every day, so customizing a chip themselves is actually more cost-effective and energy-efficient.
However, just because big companies know what they want doesn’t mean they want to do everything themselves. This is where Broadcom steps in to help, designing, implementing, and manufacturing the AI chips that customers need. So when you see market discussions about Google TPU or big companies developing their own AI chips, behind the scenes, it could actually bring business to Broadcom.
The other part is AI networking. Think of an AI data center as tens of thousands of chips working together. No matter how fast the chips are, if data transmission is congested, overall efficiency won’t improve. Broadcom sells switching chips and network device chips that essentially build the highways for these AI chips.
So the logic behind $xAVGO is simple: big companies buy Nvidia GPUs, which require AI networking; when big companies find GPUs expensive and start making their own ASICs, Broadcom helps by making custom chips. That’s why I think Broadcom holds a comfortable position in the industry chain.
Nvidia $NVDA is responsible for selling the shovels, while Broadcom is more like the one building roads and helping customers customize their own shovels. As long as AI giants keep increasing their CapEx, both businesses will remain profitable.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Report Date: August 31, 2026 Key Viewpoint: The memory chip industry is at a strategic turning point in the cycle, with AI-driven structural demand sharply offsetting traditional consumption and capacity expansion in China, making short-selling opportunities and risks coexisting. 1. Industry Overview: "K-Shaped Differentiation" in the Super Cycle The global memory market is dominated by DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) and NAND Flash, together accounting for over 95% of the market share. In the DRAM sector, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology hold about 93%-95% of the market share. From 2024 to 2026, the explosive growth of AI large models has completely broken the traditional cyclical patterns of the storage industry. The industry shows extreme "K-shaped differentiation": · K-type upstream (high-end AI/server storage): HBM, enterprise-grade SSD, DDR5 server memory achieve "volume and price increases"; · K-type down-end (consumer-grade general-purpose storage) :D DR4 and consumer-grade NAND have experienced severe volatility. This differentiation pattern is the core observation dimension of short-selling strategies—not all storage is worth shorting. 2. Supply-side analysis: The wave of capacity expansion is approaching 2.1 International giants' massive expansion plans Major manufacturers are expanding capacity with unprecedented intensity: Manufacturers Investment Scale Time Spans Key Directions SK Hynix 11 trillion KRW to 2033 Yongin 4 DRAM factories, Cheongju flash memory plant Samsung Electronics 21 trillion KRW to 2040 South KoreaWhy do I think the Bitcoin bull market hasn't truly started yet?
After the rise over the past two months, many investors believe the Bitcoin bull market has begun and see a high similarity between this rally and the early phase of the previous bull market (2022.11.21–2023.4.14):
2026.7.1–7.21
vs
2022.11.21–2022.12.14;
Since 2026.8.17
vs
2022.12.30–2023.2.16.
However, comparing the wave structures of these two periods reveals a very critical difference between the current rally and the early stage of the last bull market.
The early stage of the last bull market, i.e., the first major wave, was a relatively standard five-wave impulse structure:
Sub-wave 1: 2022.11.21–2022.12.14;
Sub-wave 2: 2022.12.14–2022.12.30;
Sub-wave 3: 2022.12.30–2023.2.16;
Sub-wave 4: 2023.2.16–2023.3.10;
Sub-wave 5: 2023.3.10–2023.4.14.
Among these, sub-waves 1, 3, and 5 can themselves be further subdivided into five-wave structures.
This means the startup phase of the last bull market had a very clear "large five-wave — internal small five-wave" structure.
Looking at the wave divisions of past major Bitcoin bull market cycles, the first major wave in the early bull market phase usually also shows this clear five-wave impulse structure.
But the current market does not exhibit the same structural characteristics.
First, the rise during 2026.7.1–7.21 fits better with a three-wave corrective rebound structure rather than a standard five-wave impulse.
Second, even if the rise since August 17 can be further subdivided into local five waves, the overall wave structure still does not match the wave structure characteristics of the early bull market phase.
Therefore, from the perspective of wave structure, I currently tend to define the past two months' rise as a large-scale rebound within a bear market, rather than the first major wave of a new bull market.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice!
#比特币 #BTC🚨 Bitcoin ETF outflows don’t necessarily mean money is leaving crypto. The money might simply be moving.
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw around $201.9M in net outflows, snapping a nine-day streak of consecutive inflows.
But here’s the interesting part 👀
While BTC ETFs were bleeding, Ethereum ETFs pulled in roughly $102.1M, while SOL and XRP-related ETFs also continued to attract capital.
#DailyOrbit Last week, Bitcoin closed with a long upper shadow doji, which was firmly suppressed by the descending weekly SMA50. The weekly SMA50 has always been the dividing line between bull and bear markets, so it's perfectly normal for the first wave of rebound to be blocked here.
The following logical projection is actually very clear:
1️⃣ Moving average resistance and pullback: Short-term upward momentum is exhausted, requiring a pullback to digest the trapped positions and profit-taking above;
2️⃣ Testing the bull-bear transition zone: Focus on the support strength around the $70,000 level. This is not only a key previous chip area but also the touchstone to determine whether the "bear market is completely over";
3️⃣ Confirming trend reversal: Only by truly holding and completing the bottom formation near 70k can this rebound upgrade to a genuine cycle reversal, ushering in a larger upward space afterward.
Keep a close eye on the 70k support and wait for the market to give the final answer. 1. Root Cause of Today's Problem
The 100x leverage sensitivity is very high, and I habitually click the quick position 25% button to open the first position in one go.
Consequences:
1. The first position is fully filled at once, leaving no remaining position to add at a lower price to average down the cost.
2. When the market normally retraces about 30 points, there is no backup position to support it.
3. The holding cost is locked at a high level, only allowing a small portion of profit, missing out on the entire large wave.
4. The market move that could have gained 100-150 points results in greatly reduced profits.
2. Core Insight
How much you can earn by accurately spotting turning points and correctly judging the trend is determined by the position structure.
The correct way to use 100x leverage for trend trading:
Start with a light base position → add positions in batches at key retracement points to lower the cost → after the average price is reduced, capture the full market move.
Filling the position all at once is equivalent to directly giving up the profit potential of the latter half of the market move.
3. Written into the Trading System as a Hard Rule
1. Open the first position at trend turning points; prohibit directly clicking the 25% or 50% quick position buttons.
2. For 100x leverage, manually input 10% for the first position.
3. Reserve the remaining position, wait for the market to retrace to support levels, then add positions in batches.
4. Build the position in two steps to lower the overall cost, aiming to capture 50-150 points in the wave.
5. The total position limit remains unchanged; only the entry rhythm is split, not filled all at once.
4. Closing Remarks on Review
The most regrettable thing in trading is not losing money by being wrong, but losing profits due to habitual operations despite correctly reading the market.That crash this morning cost $346 million: chasing short now, I think it's a bit late
This morning's downward move looked even fiercer than the candlesticks.
In the past 24 hours, about $346 million was liquidated across the network, with $248 million in long positions. In the most concentrated hour, about $180 million was liquidated, with many positions wiped out before they could react.
$BTC Fell from around 79,100 in the early morning to around 77,500, $ETH from 2,525 back to around 2,417. ETH fell faster, indicating that high leverage and chasing funds are mainly concentrated around 2Bian.
But at this point, I actually don't want to keep chasing shorts.
Below BTC, the previous low was 76,800, and ETH was also close to 2,400. The recent liquidation has already released some selling pressure, and now that the short position is open, the position is uncomfortable. Whenever the market shows a bit of support, short positions are easily pushed out by a rebound.
Here's how I'll look at it later:
BTC fell below 76,800, rebounded but couldn't recover, then consider following the trend; If it recovers 78,500, it means the morning's sell-off was mainly due to deleveraging.
ETH should first target 2400, hold and return above 2450, with short-term recovery possible; If 2400 is breached, then look at around 2350.
If you didn't have time to short in the morning, that's one thing. The market has already gone a while, and if you rush in just by seeing liquidation numbers, it's easy to get hit by the last blow from the bears.
$BTC $ETH #就业数据密集公布, Wash's policy stance is being tested #OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 On Friday, the US stock market closed with indices down slightly (Nasdaq -0.52%), but the chip sector was absolutely slaughtered.
NVIDIA -4.57%, Marvell -10.28%, ARM -6.33%, Applied Materials -4.29%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down directly by -3.47%. The day before, everyone was celebrating NVIDIA's explosive earnings report and a single-day market cap increase of +442 billion, but the next day it showed a high open and closed lower.
But look at the other side: Amazon +3.97%, Microsoft +1.68%, Apple +1.63%, Google +1.74%. Tech giants all turned green.
Barclays' report reveals the truth: For every 100 dollars AI companies earn, 35-40 dollars flow as inference computing fees to the three major cloud providers, AWS, Azure, and GCP, which can achieve operating profit margins of 35%-45% from this.
This means: NVIDIA is responsible for making the shovels, cloud providers collect the tolls, and AI application companies do the labor; the money ultimately flows into the toll booths.
So this week's market movement doesn't mean the AI rally is over, but that AI money is starting to change hands. Are you holding shovel stocks, toll booth stocks, or labor stocks?Biggest loser $ZKP -18%, $ZKP down 17.79% today, the whales started dumping after distributing at high levels. On August 29, it surged +16% to close at $0.050, then on August 30 it pushed up to $0.06237 with a huge volume of 117 million U, a textbook distribution at the peak. Today it dropped from $0.058 down to $0.047. Light short positions around $0.050, stop loss at $0.056, target $0.038. Don't chase shorts at $0.047, the selling is almost done.
Fee rate -0.3335%, shorts are still paying penalties to longs, many holding high short positions. Net inflow of positions was 1.12 million U on August 30, flat today, whales withdrew but retail took over. $0.06237 was the distribution top on August 30, $0.03814 is the previous low support.
Damn, the monkey's guts are really thick, entering short at 20x leverage at $0.04694. He thinks the heavy dump today means shorts are coming. Forced liquidation at $0.0493 hanging 5% overhead. This coin surged from $0.046 to $0.062 in 48 hours then dumped back to $0.047, the $0.06237 spike pierced the forced liquidation line in one shot, wiping out 1678.9 U margin. The funniest thing is ZKP really dropped back to $0.047 as expected, but the person is gone. 🚀🚀🚀$BTC and $ETH are developing two increasingly distinct logics.
In the past 90 days, correlations have shifted: BTC's linkage with the Nasdaq has decreased, while its correlation with gold has risen; ETH remains highly tied to tech risk assets.
What does this mean?
BTC is gradually being viewed by some funds as "digital gold" or even a debt hedging asset. The rise and fall of US tech stocks no longer impacts it as directly as before.
But ETH is different. Its risk profile remains stronger; when tech stocks, liquidity, and market risk appetite weaken, ETH often feels the pressure first.
However, don’t interpret "BTC being more like gold" as BTC being immune to interest rates.
In the short term, what truly determines price are the dollar, US Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policies. When yields rise rapidly, gold falls, and BTC falls as well.
So when looking at BTC now, I focus more on macro liquidity; for ETH, I watch both tech stocks and risk appetite.
Long term, consider debt and liquidity; short term, consider interest rates and capital.
These two logics must not be confused.
What do you think? Will BTC increasingly resemble "digital gold" in the future, or will it ultimately reconnect with a high correlation to the Nasdaq?
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #OKX预言家：CS2波尔图激战，F1与英超接力 Top gainer $ZORA +36% | Market maker's scheme revealed, $ZORA up 36% today, bouncing sharply upward, the market maker has been preparing this move for a month. In the first two weeks of August, it hovered dead at $0.005 with an average daily volume under 2 million U. On August 21, volume surged to 62 million, pushing up 25% to test the waters; eight days of consolidation cleaned out floating supply, volume shrank to 3-4 million. On August 30, the second wave +27% with 45 million volume; today the third wave +20% pumped to 246 million U, volume 34 times the 30-day average. $0.0112 with 246 million daily volume is likely the market maker's distribution point, 34x volume is retail FOMO rushing in. Fee rate -0.5815% absurdly negative, shorts pay penalty to longs every 8 hours, a classic short squeeze operation. Net inflow of open interest rose from 1.63 million U to 3.55 million. Light short test from $0.0105 to $0.0112, stop loss at $0.012, target $0.008, don't catch the last leg.
$0.0047 was the accumulation bottom on August 19, $0.0076 was the test of previous high on August 23. Market maker's three-step plan: 16 days of accumulation lying low, 8 days of shakeout and test pull-up, 3 days of main rise and distribution. Now in the third step, retail investors who can't keep up have become bag holders. After the fact, someone did the math and estimated that, based on the coin price at the time, Justin Sun cashed out about 12 billion RMB (there are also claims that he only cashed out 2 billion RMB).
The large-scale sell-off quickly triggered a stampede-like run, and the price of TRON tokens instantly plummeted by 20%. Coincidentally again, Justin Sun ran before the crash.
He always manages to be the fastest runner, just like when he was eating coconut chicken.
Ten months after TRON was founded, Justin Sun claimed his net worth had reached tens of billions. But what followed was the disappearance of wealth for many, leaving only self-mockery: "When Brother Sun smiles, life and death are unpredictable."
This phrase traces back to a few years ago. Once, Justin Sun did a live stream endorsing a coin. A viewer commented in the chat, "Brother Sun, please don't smile, I'm so scared." Justin Sun disdainfully replied, "Do I care about your trifling concerns?"
A few months later, investors who bought that coin were trapped at high prices, with the situation so dire it could only be described as a total loss.
Even after taking over Huobi's business later, Justin Sun did not give up on retail investors' "trifling concerns." Several industry insiders accused him of repeatedly "injecting needles" into Huobi — also known as "targeted demolition" — using server delays, crashes, manipulating K-line charts to mislead investors, and manipulating coin prices to maliciously liquidate users.
"The money earned from 'injecting needles' isn't even enough for his hourly wage, but he insists on making it," said a crypto investor who has interacted with Justin Sun.#US-Iran military confrontation escalates, crude oil supply risk heats up
US and Iran are at it again, oil prices directly soaring to 90
Just saw the news, US military attacked Iran's Larak Island military facility, Iran immediately retaliated against the US military base in Jordan. The first physical military strike after the ceasefire broke down, geopolitical risk maxed out.
Oil prices reacted most directly, Brent crude returned above $90, WTI rose 3.5% to $86, indicating the market is seriously pricing in the risk of supply disruption.
Oil price rising during war is normal. Any disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz causes energy prices to jump. If this wave continues to escalate, oil prices may go even higher, and when inflation expectations rise, it will be even harder for the Federal Reserve to ease.
However, BTC did not fall this time, still hovering around 78,000. Funds seem to be pricing BTC as a hard asset, following the same logic as gold and crude oil. Fight on, no matter how it goes, BTC hasn’t really dropped.
$CL $BZ
#BTC high-level volatility, stronger linkage with gold
#US-Iran military confrontation escalates, crude oil supply risk heats up Many people habitually look only at price increases when watching the market, but they overlook the income logic of the protocol itself. At the current market position, the tolerance for coins purely driven by hype stories is getting lower and lower. Tracks that can generate real on-chain revenue will gradually receive capital preference.
BTC determines the overall market environment, ETH is used to judge whether the market dares to embrace risk. When BTC consolidates at a high level without further violent rallies, capital will start to select projects with actual business, fees, and cash flow. This round focuses on tracking revenue-generating protocol tracks.
🟠BTC｜Benchmark for overall market environment
🔵ETH｜Risk appetite verification
🟣AERO｜DEX trading fee revenue
🟢MPL｜Real revenue lending protocol
🔷UNI｜Leading DEX fee distribution
⚡LDO｜Staking liquidity revenue
🏦FXS｜Stablecoin business revenue
💧KLIMA｜On-chain treasury revenue model
🤖AAVE｜Lending business cash flow
🔥PEPE｜High beta sentiment chip
Observation logic for sector activation:
1. At the macro level, BTC no longer continues to fall sharply, and the ETH/BTC ratio steadily rises, indicating that market risk appetite is opening.
2. Do not blindly trust the independent rally of a single coin. Focus on multiple projects within the track, with on-chain revenue rising synchronously and coin prices increasing with volume. This is the signal that the narrative is taking hold.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Cloud computing power price differences continue to push up data migration costs, while $FIL is struggling under the dual pressure of low prices and token unlocking supply.
In the spot market, $FIL has fallen back to around $0.669, with secondary market concerns over dilution from uncirculated tokens continuing to suppress valuation.
Macro liquidity is constrained by the US dollar and high interest rates, and volatility in US chip and tech stocks directly transmits to the crypto sector, making enterprises more sensitive to cloud spending.
There is a 57% hourly price difference among cloud providers for the same computing power. Whether the zero outbound transfer fee mechanism can facilitate real migration is closely linked to the actual conversion of on-chain demand.
Stabilization of US tech stocks and the resulting shift in enterprise computing budgets, combined with the fulfillment of October production cuts expectations, will drive on-chain storage usage growth and establish a path for valuation recovery.
If macro high interest rates intensify market defensive sentiment and the continuous selling pressure from token unlocking is not absorbed, the price base will continue to decline.
When centralized cloud providers proactively reduce data transfer fees, the cost comparative advantage of decentralized solutions is weakened, causing the current logic to fail.
Key observations for the next seven days include the incremental calls of AI workloads on low-cost storage and the liquidity spillover rhythm brought by the movement of US tech stocks.
#闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估 #财政部拟用TGA回购，财政压力仍待化解 #Stripe财团据报退出，PayPal收跌近13%$CORE was supposed to have 78 years left to mine the reward pool coins, but in just three days, nearly 300 million have been reduced. When DC raised the issue, they were immediately kicked out of the community. It took three days to realize the problem. Let's quietly watch how they try to deceive the community this time [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
This week, a series of U.S. employment data will be released: ADP, initial jobless claims, and nonfarm payrolls will come one after another. The market will once again scrutinize: Will Walsh continue to focus on inflation and hit the brakes, or will he quietly ease off after seeing employment cool down?
Pharaoh directly says that this round of employment data not only determines rate cut expectations but also tests how tough Walsh's previous hardline stance really is.
If new job additions are strong, unemployment remains stable, and wage growth is relatively hot, it means the U.S. economy can still hold up. Walsh will be more confident emphasizing inflation risks. The market will reprice for "high interest rates lasting longer," strengthening the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, which is short-term bearish for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin happens to be at a high level, it might be an opportunity to shake out the bulls!
Conversely, if employment clearly cools and unemployment rises, the market will preemptively bet on policy easing. The dollar and Treasury yields will fall, giving BTC a chance to retest previous highs. But if the data is too bad, don’t rush to pop the champagne; the market might first trade recession fears, causing a collective plunge in risk assets before a big rebound.
Pharaoh believes the most likely scenario is a moderate slowdown in employment without a crash. This leaves room for policy easing without triggering recession alarms, which is most favorable for BTC in the medium term.
In short: employment data sets the questions, Walsh answers them, and Bitcoin makes both bulls and bears question their lives. $ETH $SOL $TRUMP #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 ⚠️ Bitcoin Is Entering September With A Difficult Setup One crypto story I think deserves more attention right now is how $BTC is holding up despite a much tougher macro environment. Bitcoin is around the $78K area after briefly dropping toward $77K. But the bigger story is happening outside crypto. Oil is back above $90. Rate hike expectations are rising. Geopolitical tensions are increasing. And the U.S. jobs report is coming this week. That combination could make September very different from$DOGE dropped 1.9% today to 0.0825, down 12% last week; the 0.10 level was completely rejected.
But this month it actually rose 25%, the best month in 2026, ending a three-week losing streak. A typical case of a strong monthly chart but painful daily chart.
The most glaring is the volume: August 23 was $5.2 billion, now $1.5 billion, halved twice. Perpetual positions dropped from 17.3 billion coins to 15.7 billion coins.
On-chain data is even clearer—large whales holding tens of millions to hundreds of millions fled 260 million coins since 8/21, while small whales holding tens of thousands to millions took over.
Big players exited, small players entered. This script has played out too many times.
Hot topic complaint: that $146,000 "institutional fund"
I laughed for a long time when I saw this data: DOGE spot ETF net inflow last week was $146,000.
Not $14.6 million, not $1.46 million, but one hundred forty-six thousand. And this is already the second consecutive week of positive inflow.
Guys, this number compared to a $12.8 billion market cap is like dropping a drop of water into a swimming pool, then writing the headline "Institutional funds continue to enter."
DOGE has never relied on ETFs; it relies on whether Musk tweets and whether the community is hyped.
The current sentiment is: touched 0.10 but didn’t break through, volume halved, big whales left 260 million coins.
Translation—The hype is over, don’t rush to buy, I was already wrong. $DOGE Today's crypto circle appears calm on the surface but is actually turbulent underneath. All eyes are focused on one thing: the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 60%.
This macro news is drastically reshaping market expectations. CME data shows that the market's bet on a 25 basis point rate hike in September has skyrocketed from 35% to 60% within a week. The aftershocks of Fed's Waller's hawkish speech have not faded, and the US dollar index has risen above 105, hitting a nearly six-month high. For the crypto space, this means a "liquidity drain" is underway — the total market cap of stablecoins shrank by $500 million in the past week, a clear signal of capital outflow.
However, the bulls' chips remain strong. Today's CryptoQuant data shows exchange BTC balances have dropped to the lowest level since 2018, only 2.3 million coins. Whales are accumulating at a pace of 60,000 coins per month, completely ignoring macro noise. The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF saw another $120 million inflow today, marking the sixth consecutive day of net inflows, showing a stark contrast between institutional and retail actions.
On-chain data also revealed a key signal: a Bitcoin wallet dormant for 11 years was activated today, transferring 2,000 coins to an exchange. This could be an old miner cashing out before the rate hike, and short-term selling pressure should not be ignored.
The short-term direction is unclear, but the mid-term logic is clear — macro suppression and supply scarcity are pulling to the extreme. $78,000 is the bulls' defense line, $80,000 is the bears' fortress; whoever breaks first will set the direction for September. Before Thursday's nonfarm payroll data is released, it is advised to watch more and trade less $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC saw news that MicroStrategy has purchased another 4,603 bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 845,050 coins. Is MicroStrategy's strategy correct? Betting on a cryptocurrency, isn't there concern about the risks involved?
It depends on Bitcoin's long-term trend — currently, the risk is extremely high and highly controversial. The company has shifted from "buy and hold" to active management, which precisely exposes the fragility of the original model.
The core risk lies in the reversal of the "leverage flywheel." Previously, the company financed coin purchases by issuing shares at a premium, pushing up the coin-per-share ratio to maintain the premium. But once Bitcoin falls and the mNAV (market value/bitcoin net asset value) drops below 1, the premium disappears, financing channels close, and the flywheel stops. Analysts warn this could trigger a "death spiral" — forced coin sales or discounted share issuance to pay dividends, creating a vicious cycle.
Financial pressure is very real:
· Huge unrealized losses: at one point, unrealized losses exceeded $13 to $14 billion.
· High dividends: preferred stock annual dividends reach $1.5 billion, while cash reserves were once only $1 billion, covering less than a year.
· Broken promises: the company has sold bitcoins multiple times by 2026 to strengthen the balance sheet, breaking the "never sell coins" belief.
Additionally, the company holds about 3-4.2% of the total bitcoin supply, and forced liquidation could trigger systemic market risk.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 The three major indices all opened lower. But what’s worth noting is not the decline itself, but the order of the decline.
The Russell 2000 fell 1.69%, Nasdaq 0.81%, Dow Jones 0.64%, and the S&P 500 only dropped 0.63%. Small-cap stocks fell 2.6 times more than large-cap stocks. This is not sector rotation; it’s a reshuffling based on interest rate sensitivity: small caps have higher debt ratios, a larger proportion of floating rates, and concentrated refinancing pressure. When the 10-year yield rises to 4.75%, they feel the pain first.
There are three readings that run counter to intuition: gold fell 0.87%, the dollar index dropped 0.17%, and the VIX is only at 15.30. If this decline were driven by risk aversion, all three numbers should have moved in the opposite direction. They didn’t, indicating that interest rates, not panic, are at work.
$BTC is quoted at 78,014, up +0.41% against the trend. This is the same as the dollar weakening—what’s being traded now is liquidity, not risk aversion. As long as yields continue to rise, rebounds will lack support.$SNDK Pre-market bullish pulse, beware of the trap of profit-taking
Recently, SNDK has repeatedly staged pre-market bull traps. Once positive news is released, it violently surges pre-market, looking like it’s about to start a new main rally, but the rise doesn’t last long before heavy selling pushes it back to the starting point.
Many traders impulsively enter the market seeing the pre-market surge, thinking it’s an opportunity, only to get trapped at the highs by this pulse move, with some contracts even triggering liquidation.
On the news front, SanDisk and Kioxia announced a $31 billion expansion plan, causing the market to reprice the NAND flash supply-demand landscape, with bullish expectations clearly on the table. But expectations are one thing, and the market’s refusal to buy in is the most realistic signal.
Pre-market pulses are often just emotional plays by capital leveraging news; once the positive news is realized, it easily turns into profit-taking, with the surge serving as a selling window.
Currently, the market is still in a phase of intensive employment data releases, and Federal Reserve policy expectations are swinging back and forth, making the sentiment in the storage sector easily disturbed by macro news.
Don’t be fooled by the brief pre-market rise; avoid blindly chasing pre-market pulse moves. It’s safer to wait for the real support after the market opens before making judgments. Risk Warning: The following is an objective summary of publicly available industry information and does not constitute any investment advice or represent a forecast of future trends. Overseas stocks carry multiple risks including exchange rate, geopolitical, and industry cycle risks.
SanDisk and SK Hynix Trend Analysis
Currently, the storage chip sector is in a super cycle driven by AI demand. However, after a significant rise earlier, it has entered a phase of intense high-level volatility. Although SanDisk (SNDK) and SK Hynix (SKHY) both belong to the storage sector, their business structures differ significantly. Their stock price trends show both sector resonance and independent logic.
SanDisk is a pure NAND flash manufacturer, spun off from Western Digital and independently listed in 2025. Its core growth driver comes from AI server enterprise SSD business, while the consumer flash business proportion is gradually declining. Recently, the stock price has been highly volatile. A prior earnings surge triggered a rapid rally, followed by a "good news priced in" correction after the earnings report, with profit-taking concentrated at high levels. The stock price has been oscillating repeatedly between $1400 and $1600. Fundamentally, the company has signed numerous long-term supply agreements, locking in a revenue floor for the future. Enterprise storage orders are full, and NAND flash prices continue to rise, supporting earnings—this forms the underlying support for the stock price. However, market concerns include: NAND flash capacity will gradually be released, consumer electronics demand remains weak, and although long-term agreements underpin earnings, they also limit subsequent price increase flexibility. If AI server capital expenditure slows, it will directly impact the company's profit expectations. SanDisk does not have HBM business; its market performance mainly follows NAND spot and contract price changes, and sector sentiment shifts can cause significant short-term pullbacks.
SK Hynix operates across DRAM, NAND, and HBM businesses. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is the company's biggest profit highlight, directly serving AI large model computing power. It currently leads market share with extremely high profit margins, serving as the core engine supporting the stock price. The stock price also follows the storage sector trend, but compared to SanDisk, it benefits from the high-growth HBM mainline. On one hand, AI servers continue to purchase HBM with full orders, supporting the stock price; on the other hand, rising DRAM prices also contribute to earnings. Risks include: HBM capacity gradually expanding, with Samsung and Micron accelerating competition, which will squeeze profit margins; meanwhile, the Korean domestic market is heavily influenced by macroeconomic and exchange rate factors, and the price difference between US ADRs and Korean domestic stocks amplifies volatility. Additionally, weak demand for ordinary consumer DRAM will drag overall business.
From the overall sector environment perspective, the storage industry is currently in a supply-demand tight state, with AI computing power demand continuously driving growth. However, the market has already priced in expectations of future capacity release, so it often experiences "earnings disappointments" where good results lead to stock price declines. At the macro level, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and overall risk appetite for US tech stocks will externally disturb both companies. If the US tech sector corrects, storage chips as a high-growth sector often experience larger pullbacks than the broader market.
Comparing the two: SK Hynix benefits from HBM's high growth and shows stronger elasticity in the AI market but is more affected by Korean stock exchange rates and HBM competition. SanDisk relies entirely on NAND flash, with stock performance more directly influenced by enterprise SSD demand and NAND price cycles. In the short term, both stocks are in high-level oscillation with significant bullish and bearish divergence, making sustained one-sided rallies difficult. If storage contract prices continue to rise beyond expectations, stock prices will rebound; if AI capital expenditure falls short or new capacity comes online, significant corrections will occur.
In the medium to long term, whether the storage industry's prosperity continues depends on the sustained real demand from AI servers. Institutions generally believe the tight supply situation will last until 2027, but as capacity gradually releases later, the cycle will ease, and stock prices will anticipate the cycle turning point. Investors should note that storage is a strongly cyclical industry with low tolerance for errors under high valuations. Positive news realization can easily cause large fluctuations, and overseas stocks also carry additional risks such as exchange rate and geopolitical policies. (Full text 1086 words)#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
Wednesday 20:15, August ADP Employment Change; Thursday 20:30, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims; Friday 20:30, August Nonfarm Payrolls Report — this is the last employment data before the September 16 FOMC meeting.
Waller has already revealed his hand: in his August 28 Jackson Hole speech, he clearly stated that inflation is "still too high," the summer data improvement "does not represent a substantial improvement in the underlying trend," and the financial environment "cannot be described as clearly restrictive." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike has surged from 35% before the speech to 57%. Waller has kicked the ball to the data — and this week's data is the referee he has set.
Three scenarios for Nonfarm Payrolls: if new jobs exceed 150,000 and wage growth remains strong, the probability of a September rate hike will likely exceed 70%, and BTC may test the $75,000 support again; if new jobs are between 100,000 and 150,000, the market will continue to tug around the 57% probability; if it falls below 100,000 and the previous value is revised down, Waller's "hawkish signal" may be repriced by the market, and BTC has a chance to retest $80,000.
The stronger the employment data, the higher the probability of a rate hike, and BTC will face short-term pressure; the weaker the employment data, the cooler the rate hike expectations, and BTC's rebound space opens up. Every number in the Nonfarm Payrolls will directly rewrite the script for the September FOMC.Core Focus: BTC defense at 78,000｜August gains realized｜BTC/ETH ETF capital divergence｜SOL recovery after breaking below 105｜XRP institutional absorption｜UNI strong against the trend｜ZEC high-level turnover｜XMR unusual movement｜ENA pullback｜HYPE supply pressure｜US stock risk appetite｜AVGO earnings｜US nonfarm｜USD/US bonds/gold Core Analysis: On the last trading day of August, the market did not continue the previous pattern of “BTC rising, altcoins catching up” but instead showed a very important structural change: BTC remained relatively resilient, while mainstream altcoins like ETH, SOL, and XRP retreated, and a few assets with independent catalysts continued to strengthen. BTC is currently still around 78,000 USD, with a cumulative gain of about 24% in August, making it one of the strongest months since 2026; however, from the intraday structure, the market has not re-entered an indiscriminate risk-on mode. After BTC fell back from around 81,000 USD, it tested the 77,000 area multiple times, and even today, amid renewed US-Iran tensions, oil prices briefly breaking above 90 USD, and rising global bond yields, there was no uncontrolled sell-off, which itself is a relatively positive signal. (CoinDesk) What really needs caution is the capital structure. On August 28, the US spot BTC ETF ended a streak of 9 consecutive trading days of net inflows, with a single-day net outflow of about 201.9 million USD; however, the ETH ETF still had a net inflow of about 102.1 million USD and continuedCan $BTC be a little kinder to me in September?
Historically, Bitcoin tends to perform weakly in September, a month often jokingly called "Rektember" by the market. Based on public data from 2010 to 2025, the average price change in September ranges between -3% and -4.5%, making it one of the weaker months of the year. Among the 13 Septembers from 2013 to 2025, about 8 years saw declines, with a drop probability exceeding 60%. Specifically, early years showed high volatility: a plunge of over 37% in 2011, about 19% drop in 2014, and over 13% decline in 2019. From 2017 to 2022, Bitcoin fell for six consecutive years. However, it is not a guaranteed decline every year; for example, it surged 22% in 2012, and rose about 3% and 6% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Recent years show a changing trend: up about 4% in 2023, 7.4% in 2024, and 5.4% in 2025, marking three consecutive years of gains and indicating a weakening of seasonality.
There is also a pattern within September: the beginning of the month is relatively stable, mid-month (especially the third week) often sees deeper pullbacks, and the end of the month partially recovers. Historically, after a weak September, October tends to be stronger, known as "Uptober," with significantly higher average gains, and the fourth quarter overall tends to be bullish. It is important to emphasize that these are statistical tendencies, not ironclad rules. Early markets were smaller and more volatile, while recent years are influenced by multiple factors such as ETF funds, institutional participation, and macroeconomic environment. Investors should view historical data rationally and avoid simplistic application. The continuous decline of $CORE CORE is the result of long-term fundamental issues combined with short-term panic-driven negative factors; meanwhile, those voices "calling for a rise" are mostly betting on a long-term narrative that still needs time to be validated.
Token economic flaws: Total supply of 2.1 billion tokens, nearly 60% in circulation, with continuous unlocking over the coming decades causing perpetual selling pressure.
Ecosystem hollowing: On-chain locked value (TVL) is extremely low (only about $4.35 million), lacking real applications and token consumption scenarios.
Concentrated holdings: A few whales control the market, with no funds to support prices during downturns.
Continuous staking sell pressure: Mining-produced CORE tokens are constantly sold, creating a vicious cycle of "the more it falls, the more is sold."
📢 "Why is everyone calling for a rise?"
The project team is "making moves": Core DAO announced entering the "revenue era" in 2026, planning to use ecosystem income (such as SatPay card fees) to buy back CORE, attempting to switch from a "money printing model" to a "profit-making model."
Narrative and expectations: CORE promotes the concepts of "Bitcoin's favored child" and "BTCFi," seen as a "ticket" betting on the explosion of the Bitcoin ecosystem, giving some people a sense of "expectation gap."
Can it really rise?
It depends on whether the "big promises" drawn by Core DAO can be fulfilled.
SatPay's real income: Is there genuine fee revenue coming in?
Treasury buyback records: Has there been continuous buyback and burning of CORE on the market as promised?
On-chain TVL: Is there sustained, large-scale capital inflow? BitMine has been buying ETH for 65 consecutive weeks
As of now, it holds 5.9 million ETH, nearly 5% of the entire ETH supply.
As retail investors, we all want to ask: after buying so much, why hasn't ETH's price risen?
Last week, it bought another 53,501 ETH
At its peak last September, it bought 260,000 ETH in a single week; now it has basically dropped to 30,000–70,000 ETH per week
From aggressive accumulation to slow absorption, but it has hardly stopped for 65 weeks
As a result, its position has grown larger over this period, yet ETH's price performance has not followed its holdings upward
This actually reveals quite a bit
A giant whale continuously buying does not mean the entire market is buying
BitMine can absorb part of the new supply, but if ETFs, spot funds, on-chain demand, and market risk appetite do not strengthen together, its solo buying is unlikely to determine ETH's price
Looking at it from another angle:
BitMine has already taken nearly 5% of ETH, which raises an increasingly important question:
If even this level of sustained buying can't push ETH into a clear trend, how much selling pressure is there on the other side of the market?
Even more interestingly, BitMine's cash and securities have dropped from about $700 million in May to $308 million now
ETH is still being bought, but the ammunition is getting thinner.
So what I want to watch next is no longer when it will reach 5%.
Rather, how much longer BitMine can keep buying, and when ETH can rise without relying on BitMine buying $ETH #BTC high-level oscillation, stronger linkage with gold
Now safe-haven assets are really tough, the safe-haven demand brought by geopolitical conflicts is directly wiped out by interest rate hike expectations, gold and BTC are both under pressure.
The situation in Iran is tense, theoretically safe-haven sentiment should boost gold, but oil prices rise inflation expectations, and the Fed is very hawkish, the probability of a rate hike in September has directly hit 60%, with a strong dollar, London gold has been stuck at 4450 for several days, unable to rise. $BTC is even worse, it surged to 79000 in the morning session then fell back to 78000, like a dead fish. $ETH is also hovering around 2430, stuck without moving up or down.
Now the correlation between BTC and gold has reached 80%, ETH is also moving in tandem, the three are completely rising and falling together. Previously, geopolitical conflicts boosted gold and crypto fell, now not anymore, all three are suppressed by rate hike expectations.
But the medium to long-term logic hasn't changed, US Treasury debt has broken 40 trillion, the dollar's credit is being questioned, gold is hard currency, BTC is digital gold, ETH is the oil of the crypto world, their drops are all opportunities.
In the short term, don't expect big gains, employment data is concentrated this week, if data is strong it continues to fall, if data is soft it bounces a bit. Light positions and wait, it's safest to buy in batches on pullbacks. $XAU On-chain tracking starts with net inflows to exchange wallets. BTR has seen three split transfers in the last two hours, totaling about 4.6 million tokens. Among them, two new addresses have continuously taken split orders between 0.0990 and 0.0993. The buy-side depth on the order book increased from 150,000 to 400,000 tokens, but there are over 500,000 sell orders stacked above 0.1015. The perpetual contract long-short ratio dropped from 1.8 to 1.1, indicating that it’s not large funds flipping to short directly, but rather high-leverage longs reducing positions.
Just finished climbing to the seventh floor and sending that order, sweat almost made me misplace the stop loss on the screen. Looking back at the market, I caught this wave of accumulation. Current price is 0.0994500. This kind of low-level split order accumulation without a quick pump is more likely a whale waiting for liquidity. I plan to go long in the 0.0973 to 0.0982 range, set stop loss at 0.0956, first take profit at 0.1030, and if volume breaks out, then target 0.1065. If it breaks below 0.0956, it means the accumulation is fake, and I will cut losses immediately without holding.
$BTR
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
@OKX星球 The script of Bitcoin has never been clear from single-day flows. Last Friday, $201.9 million was withdrawn, ending nine consecutive days of net ETF inflows, and before that, the market had just experienced a round of intensive buying exceeding $3 billion. The real signal between this inflow and outflow is not in the numbers themselves, but in how the market digests the first wave of selling pressure.
When short-term profit takers exit, if new funds are willing to take positions at lower prices, it indicates a subtle change in the demand structure—the buyers are no longer just momentum-chasing hot money, but more patient, allocation-focused capital that values the asset's long-term attributes. This shift is often more worth noting than price fluctuations.
Meanwhile, the narrative of Bitcoin's correlation with gold is heating up again, with more institutions discussing it as a form of digital reserve asset. This gives deeper meaning to the current volatility: the market may be completing a consolidation of chips rather than an end to the trend.
Short-term volatility is inevitable, but the real question is—who is buying during the decline, and why they are buying. The answer will determine the direction of the next phase.
Risk warning: The market is uncertain, and ETF data only reflects a single dimension. Please make rational decisions based on your own situation. $BTCNo change, but there are two new situations worth knowing tonight:
**Prices:**
- BTC $77,600 (24h range $77K-79.4K)
- ETH $2,416 (intraday low touched $2,394, briefly broke $2,400 then pulled back; your first batch spot cost is around here)
- SOL around $102
**Two new macro variables:**
1. **10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.75%**, a new high since January 2025 — hawkish sentiment in Washington continues to ferment, the market is pricing in a September rate hike
2. **US-Iran conflict escalates**, oil prices near $90, US stock futures opened weaker tonight (Dow down 110 points)
These two factors suppress risk assets in the short term, **which actually works in our favor** — the probability of a pullback increases, the $75,700 buy-in level might really be reached. ETH has already tested $2,394 intraday, indicating the market is probing support downward.
Strategy remains the same: first batch of ETH already acquired, wait for BTC at $75,700 to buy ¥4,000, SOL wait at $85 to buy ¥3,000. Volatility will increase this week until the rate decision on 9/17, don’t rush to act, let the price come to us. Macro financial signals released, ushering in a new shift in the blockchain industry
On August 31, multiple financial events are profoundly impacting the direction of the blockchain industry.
At the overseas level, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has pushed up U.S. Treasury yields, increasing uncertainty in traditional markets. Institutional funds view Bitcoin as an alternative safe-haven asset, fueling bullish market sentiment; however, expectations of tightening liquidity will also drive funds to concentrate on leading assets, increasing pressure on small-cap projects.
The DeFi sector faces another security attack, with oracle manipulation causing massive asset losses, sounding an alarm for the industry. Subsequent DeFi projects will strengthen multi-source oracle verification and risk control thresholds, accelerating the clearance of high-risk wild projects. Robust, institutionalized DeFi solutions will become the development direction.
In the domestic market, blockchain continues to move away from token speculation narratives. Multiple banks have launched blockchain credit products, relying on on-chain evidence to help asset-light enterprises complete credit approval. Blockchain, as a trusted underlying technology, is accelerating implementation in supply chain finance and credit evidence scenarios. Meanwhile, regulators clarify that innovative businesses must be traceable and have clear responsibilities, delineating business risk boundaries.
Globally, countries are accelerating the construction of digital asset regulatory frameworks. The era of wild growth is over; compliance has become the entry ticket for projects to connect with traditional financial capital.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强