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$SNDK Pre-market bullish pulse, beware of the trap of profit-taking
Recently, SNDK has repeatedly staged pre-market bull traps. Once positive news is released, it violently surges pre-market, looking like it’s about to start a new main rally, but the rise doesn’t last long before heavy selling pushes it back to the starting point.
Many traders impulsively enter the market seeing the pre-market surge, thinking it’s an opportunity, only to get trapped at the highs by this pulse move, with some contracts even triggering liquidation.
On the news front, SanDisk and Kioxia announced a $31 billion expansion plan, causing the market to reprice the NAND flash supply-demand landscape, with bullish expectations clearly on the table. But expectations are one thing, and the market’s refusal to buy in is the most realistic signal.
Pre-market pulses are often just emotional plays by capital leveraging news; once the positive news is realized, it easily turns into profit-taking, with the surge serving as a selling window.
Currently, the market is still in a phase of intensive employment data releases, and Federal Reserve policy expectations are swinging back and forth, making the sentiment in the storage sector easily disturbed by macro news.
Don’t be fooled by the brief pre-market rise; avoid blindly chasing pre-market pulse moves. It’s safer to wait for the real support after the market opens before making judgments. Risk Warning: The following is an objective summary of publicly available industry information and does not constitute any investment advice or represent a forecast of future trends. Overseas stocks carry multiple risks including exchange rate, geopolitical, and industry cycle risks.
SanDisk and SK Hynix Trend Analysis
Currently, the storage chip sector is in a super cycle driven by AI demand. However, after a significant rise earlier, it has entered a phase of intense high-level volatility. Although SanDisk (SNDK) and SK Hynix (SKHY) both belong to the storage sector, their business structures differ significantly. Their stock price trends show both sector resonance and independent logic.
SanDisk is a pure NAND flash manufacturer, spun off from Western Digital and independently listed in 2025. Its core growth driver comes from AI server enterprise SSD business, while the consumer flash business proportion is gradually declining. Recently, the stock price has been highly volatile. A prior earnings surge triggered a rapid rally, followed by a "good news priced in" correction after the earnings report, with profit-taking concentrated at high levels. The stock price has been oscillating repeatedly between $1400 and $1600. Fundamentally, the company has signed numerous long-term supply agreements, locking in a revenue floor for the future. Enterprise storage orders are full, and NAND flash prices continue to rise, supporting earnings—this forms the underlying support for the stock price. However, market concerns include: NAND flash capacity will gradually be released, consumer electronics demand remains weak, and although long-term agreements underpin earnings, they also limit subsequent price increase flexibility. If AI server capital expenditure slows, it will directly impact the company's profit expectations. SanDisk does not have HBM business; its market performance mainly follows NAND spot and contract price changes, and sector sentiment shifts can cause significant short-term pullbacks.
SK Hynix operates across DRAM, NAND, and HBM businesses. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is the company's biggest profit highlight, directly serving AI large model computing power. It currently leads market share with extremely high profit margins, serving as the core engine supporting the stock price. The stock price also follows the storage sector trend, but compared to SanDisk, it benefits from the high-growth HBM mainline. On one hand, AI servers continue to purchase HBM with full orders, supporting the stock price; on the other hand, rising DRAM prices also contribute to earnings. Risks include: HBM capacity gradually expanding, with Samsung and Micron accelerating competition, which will squeeze profit margins; meanwhile, the Korean domestic market is heavily influenced by macroeconomic and exchange rate factors, and the price difference between US ADRs and Korean domestic stocks amplifies volatility. Additionally, weak demand for ordinary consumer DRAM will drag overall business.
From the overall sector environment perspective, the storage industry is currently in a supply-demand tight state, with AI computing power demand continuously driving growth. However, the market has already priced in expectations of future capacity release, so it often experiences "earnings disappointments" where good results lead to stock price declines. At the macro level, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and overall risk appetite for US tech stocks will externally disturb both companies. If the US tech sector corrects, storage chips as a high-growth sector often experience larger pullbacks than the broader market.
Comparing the two: SK Hynix benefits from HBM's high growth and shows stronger elasticity in the AI market but is more affected by Korean stock exchange rates and HBM competition. SanDisk relies entirely on NAND flash, with stock performance more directly influenced by enterprise SSD demand and NAND price cycles. In the short term, both stocks are in high-level oscillation with significant bullish and bearish divergence, making sustained one-sided rallies difficult. If storage contract prices continue to rise beyond expectations, stock prices will rebound; if AI capital expenditure falls short or new capacity comes online, significant corrections will occur.
In the medium to long term, whether the storage industry's prosperity continues depends on the sustained real demand from AI servers. Institutions generally believe the tight supply situation will last until 2027, but as capacity gradually releases later, the cycle will ease, and stock prices will anticipate the cycle turning point. Investors should note that storage is a strongly cyclical industry with low tolerance for errors under high valuations. Positive news realization can easily cause large fluctuations, and overseas stocks also carry additional risks such as exchange rate and geopolitical policies. (Full text 1086 words)#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
Wednesday 20:15, August ADP Employment Change; Thursday 20:30, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims; Friday 20:30, August Nonfarm Payrolls Report — this is the last employment data before the September 16 FOMC meeting.
Waller has already revealed his hand: in his August 28 Jackson Hole speech, he clearly stated that inflation is "still too high," the summer data improvement "does not represent a substantial improvement in the underlying trend," and the financial environment "cannot be described as clearly restrictive." CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike has surged from 35% before the speech to 57%. Waller has kicked the ball to the data — and this week's data is the referee he has set.
Three scenarios for Nonfarm Payrolls: if new jobs exceed 150,000 and wage growth remains strong, the probability of a September rate hike will likely exceed 70%, and BTC may test the $75,000 support again; if new jobs are between 100,000 and 150,000, the market will continue to tug around the 57% probability; if it falls below 100,000 and the previous value is revised down, Waller's "hawkish signal" may be repriced by the market, and BTC has a chance to retest $80,000.
The stronger the employment data, the higher the probability of a rate hike, and BTC will face short-term pressure; the weaker the employment data, the cooler the rate hike expectations, and BTC's rebound space opens up. Every number in the Nonfarm Payrolls will directly rewrite the script for the September FOMC.Core Focus: BTC defense at 78,000｜August gains realized｜BTC/ETH ETF capital divergence｜SOL recovery after breaking below 105｜XRP institutional absorption｜UNI strong against the trend｜ZEC high-level turnover｜XMR unusual movement｜ENA pullback｜HYPE supply pressure｜US stock risk appetite｜AVGO earnings｜US nonfarm｜USD/US bonds/gold Core Analysis: On the last trading day of August, the market did not continue the previous pattern of “BTC rising, altcoins catching up” but instead showed a very important structural change: BTC remained relatively resilient, while mainstream altcoins like ETH, SOL, and XRP retreated, and a few assets with independent catalysts continued to strengthen. BTC is currently still around 78,000 USD, with a cumulative gain of about 24% in August, making it one of the strongest months since 2026; however, from the intraday structure, the market has not re-entered an indiscriminate risk-on mode. After BTC fell back from around 81,000 USD, it tested the 77,000 area multiple times, and even today, amid renewed US-Iran tensions, oil prices briefly breaking above 90 USD, and rising global bond yields, there was no uncontrolled sell-off, which itself is a relatively positive signal. (CoinDesk) What really needs caution is the capital structure. On August 28, the US spot BTC ETF ended a streak of 9 consecutive trading days of net inflows, with a single-day net outflow of about 201.9 million USD; however, the ETH ETF still had a net inflow of about 102.1 million USD and continuedCan $BTC be a little kinder to me in September?
Historically, Bitcoin tends to perform weakly in September, a month often jokingly called "Rektember" by the market. Based on public data from 2010 to 2025, the average price change in September ranges between -3% and -4.5%, making it one of the weaker months of the year. Among the 13 Septembers from 2013 to 2025, about 8 years saw declines, with a drop probability exceeding 60%. Specifically, early years showed high volatility: a plunge of over 37% in 2011, about 19% drop in 2014, and over 13% decline in 2019. From 2017 to 2022, Bitcoin fell for six consecutive years. However, it is not a guaranteed decline every year; for example, it surged 22% in 2012, and rose about 3% and 6% in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Recent years show a changing trend: up about 4% in 2023, 7.4% in 2024, and 5.4% in 2025, marking three consecutive years of gains and indicating a weakening of seasonality.
There is also a pattern within September: the beginning of the month is relatively stable, mid-month (especially the third week) often sees deeper pullbacks, and the end of the month partially recovers. Historically, after a weak September, October tends to be stronger, known as "Uptober," with significantly higher average gains, and the fourth quarter overall tends to be bullish. It is important to emphasize that these are statistical tendencies, not ironclad rules. Early markets were smaller and more volatile, while recent years are influenced by multiple factors such as ETF funds, institutional participation, and macroeconomic environment. Investors should view historical data rationally and avoid simplistic application. The continuous decline of $CORE CORE is the result of long-term fundamental issues combined with short-term panic-driven negative factors; meanwhile, those voices "calling for a rise" are mostly betting on a long-term narrative that still needs time to be validated.
Token economic flaws: Total supply of 2.1 billion tokens, nearly 60% in circulation, with continuous unlocking over the coming decades causing perpetual selling pressure.
Ecosystem hollowing: On-chain locked value (TVL) is extremely low (only about $4.35 million), lacking real applications and token consumption scenarios.
Concentrated holdings: A few whales control the market, with no funds to support prices during downturns.
Continuous staking sell pressure: Mining-produced CORE tokens are constantly sold, creating a vicious cycle of "the more it falls, the more is sold."
📢 "Why is everyone calling for a rise?"
The project team is "making moves": Core DAO announced entering the "revenue era" in 2026, planning to use ecosystem income (such as SatPay card fees) to buy back CORE, attempting to switch from a "money printing model" to a "profit-making model."
Narrative and expectations: CORE promotes the concepts of "Bitcoin's favored child" and "BTCFi," seen as a "ticket" betting on the explosion of the Bitcoin ecosystem, giving some people a sense of "expectation gap."
Can it really rise?
It depends on whether the "big promises" drawn by Core DAO can be fulfilled.
SatPay's real income: Is there genuine fee revenue coming in?
Treasury buyback records: Has there been continuous buyback and burning of CORE on the market as promised?
On-chain TVL: Is there sustained, large-scale capital inflow? BitMine has been buying ETH for 65 consecutive weeks
As of now, it holds 5.9 million ETH, nearly 5% of the entire ETH supply.
As retail investors, we all want to ask: after buying so much, why hasn't ETH's price risen?
Last week, it bought another 53,501 ETH
At its peak last September, it bought 260,000 ETH in a single week; now it has basically dropped to 30,000–70,000 ETH per week
From aggressive accumulation to slow absorption, but it has hardly stopped for 65 weeks
As a result, its position has grown larger over this period, yet ETH's price performance has not followed its holdings upward
This actually reveals quite a bit
A giant whale continuously buying does not mean the entire market is buying
BitMine can absorb part of the new supply, but if ETFs, spot funds, on-chain demand, and market risk appetite do not strengthen together, its solo buying is unlikely to determine ETH's price
Looking at it from another angle:
BitMine has already taken nearly 5% of ETH, which raises an increasingly important question:
If even this level of sustained buying can't push ETH into a clear trend, how much selling pressure is there on the other side of the market?
Even more interestingly, BitMine's cash and securities have dropped from about $700 million in May to $308 million now
ETH is still being bought, but the ammunition is getting thinner.
So what I want to watch next is no longer when it will reach 5%.
Rather, how much longer BitMine can keep buying, and when ETH can rise without relying on BitMine buying $ETH #BTC high-level oscillation, stronger linkage with gold
Now safe-haven assets are really tough, the safe-haven demand brought by geopolitical conflicts is directly wiped out by interest rate hike expectations, gold and BTC are both under pressure.
The situation in Iran is tense, theoretically safe-haven sentiment should boost gold, but oil prices rise inflation expectations, and the Fed is very hawkish, the probability of a rate hike in September has directly hit 60%, with a strong dollar, London gold has been stuck at 4450 for several days, unable to rise. $BTC is even worse, it surged to 79000 in the morning session then fell back to 78000, like a dead fish. $ETH is also hovering around 2430, stuck without moving up or down.
Now the correlation between BTC and gold has reached 80%, ETH is also moving in tandem, the three are completely rising and falling together. Previously, geopolitical conflicts boosted gold and crypto fell, now not anymore, all three are suppressed by rate hike expectations.
But the medium to long-term logic hasn't changed, US Treasury debt has broken 40 trillion, the dollar's credit is being questioned, gold is hard currency, BTC is digital gold, ETH is the oil of the crypto world, their drops are all opportunities.
In the short term, don't expect big gains, employment data is concentrated this week, if data is strong it continues to fall, if data is soft it bounces a bit. Light positions and wait, it's safest to buy in batches on pullbacks. $XAU On-chain tracking starts with net inflows to exchange wallets. BTR has seen three split transfers in the last two hours, totaling about 4.6 million tokens. Among them, two new addresses have continuously taken split orders between 0.0990 and 0.0993. The buy-side depth on the order book increased from 150,000 to 400,000 tokens, but there are over 500,000 sell orders stacked above 0.1015. The perpetual contract long-short ratio dropped from 1.8 to 1.1, indicating that it’s not large funds flipping to short directly, but rather high-leverage longs reducing positions.
Just finished climbing to the seventh floor and sending that order, sweat almost made me misplace the stop loss on the screen. Looking back at the market, I caught this wave of accumulation. Current price is 0.0994500. This kind of low-level split order accumulation without a quick pump is more likely a whale waiting for liquidity. I plan to go long in the 0.0973 to 0.0982 range, set stop loss at 0.0956, first take profit at 0.1030, and if volume breaks out, then target 0.1065. If it breaks below 0.0956, it means the accumulation is fake, and I will cut losses immediately without holding.
$BTR
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
@OKX星球 The script of Bitcoin has never been clear from single-day flows. Last Friday, $201.9 million was withdrawn, ending nine consecutive days of net ETF inflows, and before that, the market had just experienced a round of intensive buying exceeding $3 billion. The real signal between this inflow and outflow is not in the numbers themselves, but in how the market digests the first wave of selling pressure.
When short-term profit takers exit, if new funds are willing to take positions at lower prices, it indicates a subtle change in the demand structure—the buyers are no longer just momentum-chasing hot money, but more patient, allocation-focused capital that values the asset's long-term attributes. This shift is often more worth noting than price fluctuations.
Meanwhile, the narrative of Bitcoin's correlation with gold is heating up again, with more institutions discussing it as a form of digital reserve asset. This gives deeper meaning to the current volatility: the market may be completing a consolidation of chips rather than an end to the trend.
Short-term volatility is inevitable, but the real question is—who is buying during the decline, and why they are buying. The answer will determine the direction of the next phase.
Risk warning: The market is uncertain, and ETF data only reflects a single dimension. Please make rational decisions based on your own situation. $BTCNo change, but there are two new situations worth knowing tonight:
**Prices:**
- BTC $77,600 (24h range $77K-79.4K)
- ETH $2,416 (intraday low touched $2,394, briefly broke $2,400 then pulled back; your first batch spot cost is around here)
- SOL around $102
**Two new macro variables:**
1. **10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.75%**, a new high since January 2025 — hawkish sentiment in Washington continues to ferment, the market is pricing in a September rate hike
2. **US-Iran conflict escalates**, oil prices near $90, US stock futures opened weaker tonight (Dow down 110 points)
These two factors suppress risk assets in the short term, **which actually works in our favor** — the probability of a pullback increases, the $75,700 buy-in level might really be reached. ETH has already tested $2,394 intraday, indicating the market is probing support downward.
Strategy remains the same: first batch of ETH already acquired, wait for BTC at $75,700 to buy ¥4,000, SOL wait at $85 to buy ¥3,000. Volatility will increase this week until the rate decision on 9/17, don’t rush to act, let the price come to us. Macro financial signals released, ushering in a new shift in the blockchain industry
On August 31, multiple financial events are profoundly impacting the direction of the blockchain industry.
At the overseas level, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has pushed up U.S. Treasury yields, increasing uncertainty in traditional markets. Institutional funds view Bitcoin as an alternative safe-haven asset, fueling bullish market sentiment; however, expectations of tightening liquidity will also drive funds to concentrate on leading assets, increasing pressure on small-cap projects.
The DeFi sector faces another security attack, with oracle manipulation causing massive asset losses, sounding an alarm for the industry. Subsequent DeFi projects will strengthen multi-source oracle verification and risk control thresholds, accelerating the clearance of high-risk wild projects. Robust, institutionalized DeFi solutions will become the development direction.
In the domestic market, blockchain continues to move away from token speculation narratives. Multiple banks have launched blockchain credit products, relying on on-chain evidence to help asset-light enterprises complete credit approval. Blockchain, as a trusted underlying technology, is accelerating implementation in supply chain finance and credit evidence scenarios. Meanwhile, regulators clarify that innovative businesses must be traceable and have clear responsibilities, delineating business risk boundaries.
Globally, countries are accelerating the construction of digital asset regulatory frameworks. The era of wild growth is over; compliance has become the entry ticket for projects to connect with traditional financial capital.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 The US-Iran conflict is heating up again. Emotion-driven assets like Dogecoin are destined to endure greater turbulence than the broader market, but they might also be the first to bounce back.
Since August, the US military has blockaded Iranian ports, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has been continuously obstructed. Both sides have escalated their rhetoric and actions, causing global risk aversion to rise noticeably. In such times, capital always retreats first from the most volatile areas. Dogecoin lacks earnings and fundamental anchors; its value support mainly comes from community consensus and celebrity influence, so during panic, its volatility is often magnified many times over.
However, over a longer timeframe, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the crypto market is mostly pulse-like. Once the situation shifts from "threatening war" to "negotiation," risk appetite quickly recovers, and the strongest rebounds come from the assets that fell the hardest initially. This was already seen in early August when the US moved from military threats to the negotiating table.
Ultimately, what truly determines $DOGE's trajectory remains liquidity and its own narrative: the Federal Reserve's policy path, statements from key figures like Elon Musk, and progress in payment use cases. The conflict is merely an amplifier, not the steering wheel. In the short term, maintain caution, control position sizes, and avoid chasing highs or panicking on dips; in the medium to long term, watch for signals of de-escalation, as extreme panic often hides opportunities. #美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 BTC Market News Monday Afternoon — August 31, 2026 Current Price Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $78,000 – $78,100. Key Market News Strongest August since 2017: Bitcoin is closing the month with gains of roughly 24%, recovering from early August lows near $62,000 – $64,000 and briefly topping $81,000 last week. This marks its best August performance in nearly a decade. Jackson Hole impact: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments last Friday raised the probability of a September rate hike, now nYo, boss, today's market report, Aqi has got it all clear for you!
First, let's talk about the big picture. The three major indexes all slumped today; Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures all opened lower, down 0.36 points, and the Russell 2000 also took a hit. The VIX fear index jumped 6.5% to 15.37, but don't panic, in my big health care... uh no, in the eyes of the big assassin, this is just normal fluctuation, a small scene.
Let's see which "chives" can be cut today: chip stocks are seriously split. My big NVIDIA (NVDA) is tough, slightly rising against the trend and resisting the fall; AMD dropped 2 points, pulling back near the 20-day moving average, which is like me charging up before a move. Those lightly invested can keep a close eye, but if it breaks the level, remember to run, don't fight hard. On the other hand, SanDisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) are either half-dead or slowly falling, showing a clear bearish trend. Those are "unfinished buildings," don't bottom-fish, be careful not to get buried.
Off-market news isn't peaceful either. Oil prices are shooting up, WTI hitting 85.6, Brent breaking through 90, geopolitical risks have unleashed the "monster" of inflation again. July CPI is still holding at 3.4%, rate cuts are likely off the table. Plus, the non-farm payroll data is coming this Friday, and it's a short week before Labor Day, so expect a roller coaster ride in the next two days.
So Aqi's trading advice for today: don't rush to buy on the low open, first hold a pair of scissors and watch. If AMD stabilizes, you can try a small position to test the waters; cut losses immediately if it breaks down. Don't touch those two, SNDK and MU. Keep your hands off before the non-farm payrolls drop on Friday.After MicroStrategy paused Bitcoin purchases for two months
On the first working day today, MicroStrategy resumed its fiscal execution, purchasing 4603 BTC, approximately $369.7 million, at an average price of $80,318 per coin.
This marks the company's first weekly acquisition since late June, bringing the total fiscal holdings to an impressive 845,050 BTC (acquired at a total cost of $63.73 billion with an average price of $75,412 per Bitcoin).
Key issue analysis:
Funded by $602.8 million generated from MSTR common stock sales.
While $369.7 million was directly invested in Bitcoin, the remaining proceeds were split between increasing cash reserves ($29 million) and executing a $151.8 million repurchase of STRC preferred stock.
Net leverage ratio is 0.0%, with total USD-denominated assets at $6.71 billion.
But the interesting part is not just the resumption of purchases—it’s also that the company’s balance sheet continues to leverage the equity automatic stock sale program to convert stock liquidity into long-term digital asset reserves without excessive leverage.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 I was just about to go to the forum to rant, but then I checked my balance and decided against it. The market daddy is always right. This morning when I opened my eyes, $SLX had already moved from 0.06814 to 0.06814, a +720.56% gain in hand. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly sweet. Last night before sleeping, during my review, I was still saying that every surge was just short of a breath, with obvious resistance above. I placed short orders; those who followed the shorts should understand.
Here's how I managed my position: first, I closed 70%, then raised the stop-loss on the remaining 30% to the cost price to protect it and let it fluctuate on its own. I'd rather miss a limit-up than catch a falling knife and end up bleeding. Don't let profits inflate your ego, and don't despair over pullbacks.
Have a strategy before the market opens, discipline during trading, and reflection afterward. For friends who haven't gotten on SLX yet, listen to me: now is not the time to chase. Wait for a new structure to form, then watch for the next move.
$BTC $ADA $BTC $ETH
Small pullback after the European session
The market volume is still a bit low
Hold short positions around 785 firmly
The US stock market has opened
If you have entered twice, you can first take the 700-point space
Recently, the market is good for high sell and low buy
After reducing positions, set stop-loss to break even and continue to watch downward
Golden September and Silver October, make every trade count
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $SNDK is trading at $1,510.55 (+3.46%), holding within its 24h range between $1,450.01 and $1,518.00.
Price is trading above MA5 ($1,490.96), MA10 ($1,486.99), and MA20 ($1,481.85) on the 1H.
Driven by $492.99M USDT in daily turnover and 326.48K $SNDK in 24h volume, reclaiming $1,518.00 could pave the way for a test of $1,530+.
@OKX成长学院 #DailyOrbit 这轮行情走到现在，最值得聊的其实是筹码结构，而不是短期涨跌。很多人盯着K线问要不要跑，但真正决定下一波高度的，恰恰是底部区域有多少人交出了带血的筹码。 💎 先看一个容易被忽略的事实：每一轮周期底部，剧本几乎都是同一套——快速拉升20%到30%，然后进入一段让人极度不适的横盘。这个过程看似随机，目的却非常明确，就是把低位进场的浮筹清洗出去。只有让意志不坚定的人下车，后面的拉升才不会随时遭遇抛压。历史上2018年和2021年的底部，走的都是“拉一波、横一波、再拉”的节奏，并没有本质区别。 这一轮的特殊之处在于，横盘的时间可能比以往更短。原因是市场结构变了，信息的传播速度、资金的进出效率都比几年前快得多，洗盘不需要耗费那么久。但也正因为节奏加快，很多人还没反应过来，就已经在横盘中交出了底部仓位。一个值得警惕的信号是，这波仅仅涨了20%到30%，就已经有相当规模的持仓被清掉，说明情绪仍然偏脆弱，筹码交换非常剧烈。 如果你手上有在极端低位积累的仓位，这个阶段最需要对抗的不是市场，而是噪音。横盘期最消耗人的不是亏损，而是看着别的资产涨、自己手里的不动。但底部区域的筹码，本质上是用时间换空间，一旦$CORE dropped 12.6% in one day, while $BTC only fell 3%. CORE once again proves on the market: whoever touches it dies.
The official cause of today's crash has been confirmed:
A network bug caused some validators' block rewards to exceed the protocol's preset issuance.
In other words, there was a flaw in the core issuance mechanism, validators mined excess tokens, leading to uncontrolled passive inflation.
That gate picture from this morning was casually swiped past and laughed off by many.
Only during the evening review did it become clear that behind the magnificent facade, not only was it an unfinished construction site, but even the foundation had cracks.
The circulation rate reached 70.78%, revealing the reason for the accelerated release of chips.
Validators who received excess rewards directly dumped on the secondary market, while retail investors were still hoping for a turning point in the early morning official Twitter hype.
This script has played out countless times.
Late at night, overseas releases new stories to set the mood, domestic retail investors wake up full of expectations to enter the market, absorbing continuous selling pressure.
Even the token issuance logic can have bugs; the grand narratives of SatPay, BTCFi, and others deserve a question mark on their credibility.
It's not about running away immediately, but when such issues emerge in the core code, the project's technical strength is clear at a glance.
Nearly 30% of tokens remain uncirculated, combined with this excess issuance loophole, selling pressure will only intensify.
No matter how flashy the marketing talk is, it ultimately can't cover up the stagnant ecosystem and buggy code.
One day ends, the gate is still beautiful, but the house is still not built, and the foundation is cracked. "Nearly $80 million BTC buy order was pre-emptively ambushed," reading this sentence, I want to clarify first: this $80 million is not a buy order yet.
It is placed between 75,000 and 76,000, current price is 78,494, still two to three thousand dollars difference. This new address currently holds no position, it is not buying now, but waiting below. If the market doesn't turn back, this nearly $80 million won't be executed.
What's stranger is that the 30 orders each have exactly 34.892 coins, the quantity is identical. It's not a messy manual placement, it looks like a program placing them, also like deliberately placing them for on-chain monitoring to see. A real ambusher wouldn't arrange orders so neatly, so neatly that it seems to shout: "Look, I'm ready to take the position."
So don't read "whale bullish" into this yet. Placing low means not chasing highs, even betting on a pullback. And the orders can be withdrawn at any time.
Whether this order has meaning depends on if BTC returns to 75k to 76k. Only when it reaches there without withdrawal and truly gets executed, it counts as real money; if it just stays below the rebound bottom, it changes others' expectations, not the chips.The most noteworthy thing this morning isn't that the US military bombed Larak Island, but a trader flipping from short to long within 40 minutes.
At 7:32, he shorted $2.4 million against rising oil prices; at 9:01, he cut losses closing at a $131,500 loss, then about 10 minutes later reversed to go long 20 times with $5.53 million in crude oil. At the same time, he was also increasing his bet on "US invading Iran" on Polymarket.
Why do I say this is more important than the news? The news tells you "they struck again," but his position tells you "they will strike again." Two days ago, he shorted and lost $280,000 before exiting; once the US military acted, he immediately switched sides—this is someone deeply tracking geopolitics, putting real money on the line to signal direction.
The market confirms this: WTI surged 3.4% to 85.6, while BTC only rose 0.7%. The geopolitical premium this round is all on crude oil. Crypto isn't insensitive; its transmission path is longer—first oil prices, then inflation, then interest rates, and finally risk assets.
So watch two lines going forward: whether oil can hold above 85, and what the September FOMC says. War is the catalyst for crude oil, but crypto has to wait for that bill.Do altcoins still have a future?
In the second half of 2026, altcoins will show a "strong differentiation, localized liquidity" trend, and a broad-based rally (all coins soaring) is unlikely to reoccur.
In the short term, they may rebound driven by macro interest rate cuts and Bitcoin stabilization, but the altcoin season has not yet arrived, so beware of high volatility and the risk of going to zero.
Bitcoin's market dominance remains high at 57.6%, with no large-scale spillover.
Which altcoins are you still holding? Let's discuss where the future is headed. Recently, on same-spec H100 on-demand hardware, Nebius and AWS are priced at $2.95 and $6.88 per GPU hour, respectively, a price difference of 57%. Data transmission fees have become a key constraint for the team shifting to low-cost providers; Filecoin implements zero transfer fees for stored data. Against the backdrop of US dollars, interest rates, and the US tech sector linking risk asset pricing, this mechanism opens a cost optimization window for decentralized storage represented by $FIL. Data transmission costs remain a long-term practical obstacle to cloud migration. Filecoin's zero outbound fees directly reduce data inflow and outflow friction. AI workloads rely on large-scale data movement, and outbound fees quickly erode savings on low-cost GPUs. Zero fees create a clearer pricing differential for decentralized storage compared to cloud provider premiums. If related workloads begin to seek more flexible storage layers, the actual usage needs of the Filecoin network are expected to be supported, positively transmitting ecosystem activity and long-term value. Cross-market perspective, the dollar's trend and interest rate levels continue to influence global liquidity and corporate capital expenditure willingness. Volatility in US chip and tech stocks often spills over to crypto assets, while gold provides a relatively independent safe-haven benchmark. When funding costs remain sensitive, cloud premiums and transmission constraints are more easily re-examined. The actual migration pace and volume realization of AI workloads still require observation. If cloud providers adjust outbound strategies or network storage demands fail to keep up, the thematic validation pace may slow down. Current cost narratives have already pointed to decentralized storage$BTC | $PEPE is following the broader market, but after a massive 500% rally, I’m not buying the idea that it suddenly became a secret 100x gem 😂
For the market structure to turn more bullish, I want to see $BTC reclaim and hold above $80K, while $ETH needs to recover $2,540.
Until those levels are cleared, I’m still expecting further downside.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh
#BTCGoldCorrelation
#BroadcomDellAIResults 🔥 “We’re back!” — Michael Saylor suddenly dropped this line over the weekend, paired with a Bitcoin holding chart, and veteran holders instantly understood: this man is about to make a move again! 😎
For the past few months, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has been inactive, not buying a single BTC for a full 10 weeks. But this time Saylor leaked the news early, and the historical script is almost identical — a formal announcement is very likely to drop on Monday. 💰
The ammo has long been prepared: nearly $6.7 billion in cash on the books, debt leverage as low as 0.1%, and a newly raised $3.28 billion ready to be deployed at any time. Even more aggressively, as BTC rebounds near $79,000, their holding of 840,000 bitcoins has already surged to an unrealized profit of $2.8 billion, with the cost basis far behind. 🚀
Once the news broke, the market responded with a rally, directly breaking through 79K. The market is betting this round of accumulation might be fiercer than any before — after all, Saylor has been holding back for over two months, it’s unlikely he’ll just buy a few thousand coins.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
⚠️ But don’t rush to jump in; the tweet is ultimately a hint, the real smoking gun will have to wait for Monday’s SEC filing. But judging by this guy’s style, the wolf is very likely really coming. 🐺
Keep a close eye tonight; if a huge bullish candle really appears, don’t say you weren’t warned. 👀#BTC high volatility, stronger gold correlation #Employment data intensive release, Wash’s policy stance under test $HYPE's smart money long position still appears to have 2.90m USD, but the quality has changed. The core selected long positions of about 309k USD in the previous round are no longer in the current qualified set. The existing large long positions mainly consist of an 819k USD long paired with a 783k USD BTC short, and a 2.05 million USD long with 10x leverage and no recent strengthened trades. On the other side, a wallet with HYPE's historically stable profits still holds about 156k USD shorts. This time, don't focus solely on total long positions: direction confirmation has weakened. The model removes $HYPE, leaving only $PUMP +8%.Extra: Major event decoded from the Core DAO project team
⚠️ Note: The content is only a compilation of public information and does not constitute any investment advice.
Many people have a major misconception: that Core's official cross-chain bridge supporting multiple EVM chains for asset transfers means a large number of projects are fully migrating to Core. The truth is quite the opposite; almost no projects have completely shut down their original chain operations, with the vast majority only choosing to expand multi-chain layouts.
Core's official bridge connects Ethereum, BNB Chain, Arbitrum, Polygon, Avalanche, Optimism, and Base—seven EVM chains—with significant differences in project entry enthusiasm across these chains.
BNB Chain is the public chain with the most projects laying out on Core. Since the second half of 2023, projects like LFGSwap, numerous Meme projects, yield aggregators, ASX Capital, and others have successively deployed on Core. The BSC track is highly competitive with new projects continuously diluting traffic, while Core focuses on the scarce BTCFi narrative, with extremely low EVM-compatible development costs, combined with official Ignition ecosystem incentives. Projects can simultaneously capture BSC's existing users and BTC holders, opening a new growth curve. Ethereum mainly focuses on blue-chip protocol multi-chain expansion, with representative projects like Solv Protocol launching SolvBTC.CORE in October 2024. The Ethereum LST track is fiercely competitive; Core has a native Bitcoin staking system that can form a complete staking and lending business loop, helping Solv reach BTC holders that the Ethereum ecosystem struggles to cover. Infrastructure like oracle Pyth and LayerZero have also been deployed to improve the underlying ecosystem.
Arbitrum has many re-staking and derivatives protocols planning new layouts from late 2024 to 2025. The Arbitrum track focuses on ETH re-staking, with weak BTCFi layout. Core's unique BTC+CORE dual staking mechanism can create differentiated yield products; meanwhile, on-chain fees are lower, making it more suitable for retail DeFi users. Polygon, Avalanche, Optimism, and Base have very few mature projects actively laying out, with only sporadic small new projects launching simultaneously. These public chains have their own ecosystem support policies, native assets mainly ETH-based, lacking BTC existing funds, and projects have little motivation to expand externally.
Projects willing to lay out on Core have a clear core logic: most EVM public chains compete around the Ethereum ecosystem, while Core is a scarce BTCFi underlying track with a differentiated narrative; smart contract changes are minimal, development costs are controllable; and it can also capture incremental funds brought by the BTC hashrate narrative.
It is necessary to clarify a key concept here: asset cross-chain channels only facilitate token transfers for users and do not equal ecosystem migration. Core's current leading applications Colend and Pell Network are native development projects, not migrated from external public chains.
Track dividends ultimately rely on continuous implementation and realization. Ongoing observation of project activity and real on-chain fee income will determine whether ecosystem expansion can convert into long-term value.
#CORE #BTCFi #PublicChainEcosystem #BIP‑110失败后，支持者另起BLAKE2b新链，9月1日计划上线 BIP‑110想要通过软分叉，限制比特币链上的非金融垃圾数据，降低节点存储负担。 但是提案矿工支持率仅有2.53%，少数派分叉链仅产出2个区块就直接停滞，在比特币主链推行彻底失败。 现在支持者换了路线，打算单独做一条独立的PoW分叉链： 把挖矿算法从SHA‑256替换为BLAKE2b，9月1日作为目标启动时间。 ▪️这不是比特币主网分叉升级，是一条全新独立链，生成全新代币； ▪️原有比特币矿机无法参与这条链挖矿，需要全新矿工，部分Sia矿机或可兼容； ▪️上线时间只是目标，预演测试如果出问题，版本会重置、时间延后。 关键现状与风险： 1、目前没有主流交易所、钱包、闪电网络公开表态支持该分叉，分叉代币上线后大概率缺少交易场所，很难形成有效流动性。 2、存在交易重放风险，用户需要主动做币种隔离，否则交易可能在两条链重复广播。 3、瑞波CTO公开参与辩论，反驳“修复比特币”的叙事，表示这只是开发团队转移到新链；瑞波与XRP账本并未参与该项目。 4、现阶段不会威胁比特币主链。这条新链未来能不能活下来，完全取决于上线$BTC is holding firm as $ETH and $SOL weaken, showing liquidity still favors BTC over higher-beta assets.
At ~$78.7K, BTC looks more like a macro hedge than the start of a broad crypto rally.
With BTC-gold correlation, US-Iran tensions, and oil risks keeping inflation uncertainty high, I see selective BTC strength—not full risk-on yet.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh
#BTCGoldCorrelation
#BroadcomDellAIResults The Full #ZEC Chart Shows A Repeating HTF Structure: 1️⃣ 2017–2018: $22 → $900 = ~4,000% Rally ➡️ Distribution: $900 → $18.50 = ~98% Crash 2️⃣ 2020–2021: $18.50 → $372 = ~1,900% Rally ➡️ Distribution: $372 → $15.85 = ~96% Crash 3️⃣ Current Cycle: Accumulation Started Near $15.85 In July 2024. ➡️ Since Then, ZEC Has Exploded Toward $888+ And Is Now Near ATH. But The Risk/Reward Is Changing. 🇺🇸 Grayscale’s Spot Zcash ETF Started Trading On NYSE Arca On August 25. The Catalyst Is No Longer A RumoBroadcom launched VMware AI Factory, entering the new battlefield of the AI token economy
On August 31, Broadcom announced the launch of VMware AI Factory, aiming to accelerate AI production times and strengthen control over the AI token economy. This is one of Broadcom's most significant product launches in enterprise AI infrastructure since completing its acquisition of VMware.
The so-called AI factory, first promoted by NVIDIA, refers to integrating AI computing power, data, networks, and software stacks into standardized output units similar to industrial production, converting computing power into measurable token outputs. Broadcom's VMware AI factory deeply integrates VMware's virtualization, private cloud, and software-defined data center capabilities with AI infrastructure, helping enterprises deploy and manage AI workloads in private environments, while achieving refined measurement and cost control of AI inference token consumption.
From a mechanism perspective, VMware AI Factory targets real pain points in enterprise AI deployment: high GPU costs, uncontrolled token consumption, and lack of a unified resource allocation layer. Industries such as government, finance, and healthcare, which require extremely high data sovereignty, often cannot directly place core data in the public cloud, and VMware AI Factory's private AI stack perfectly meets this demand.
For Broadcom, this is an important strategic positioning. Originally, Broadcom mainly played a foundational hardware role in AI infrastructure, including custom ASICs (long-term cooperation with Google's TPU) and EthernetDehydrated full-day market overview, stripping away market noise to focus only on the core information that truly affects capital flow.👇 🌍 One-sentence summary: On Monday, BTC fluctuated sharply around 78K all day, weakened to about 77,865 in the evening, breaking below the key 78K level again. A-shares opened low and closed higher collectively today, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4,000 mark, and the STAR 50 rising 1.34%. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell slightly by 0.07%, the Nikkei dropped 0.14%, and the KOSPI opened low but closed up 0.46%. The Solana ecosystem saw an independent hotspot (SKR doubled in one day), but the overall market remains tied to the direction of the US stock market. Tonight’s US market open is the first real variable this week—whether the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index can stop falling will determine if BTC’s break below 78K is a false breakdown or a real weakness. 🪙 Crypto｜BTC broke below 78K in the evening, suspense remains until tonight’s US market $BTC experienced intense volatility all day, briefly falling below 78,000 USDT in the morning. Intraday, it plunged sharply to 76,996 USD following news of renewed US-Iran military strikes, then rebounded to hover near 78K, before weakening again to about 77,865 in the evening. The long-short ratio is 1.0538, with a fee rate of 0.01%. Weekend negative factors (Fed hawkishness + 200 million outflow from spot ETFs) did not break 77K; today it briefly dipped to 76,996 but quickly recovered, indicating support near 77K. However, falling back below 78K warrants caution, as the importance of 78K has been repeatedly confirmed—holding during the day but weakening at night shows the market’s support confidence at 78K is not solid. $SOL 102.🚨 TONIGHT’S $BTC PUMP ISN’T ABOUT WAR — THE MARKET IS TELLING US SOMETHING BIGGER.
I went back and checked the information behind tonight’s move. At first glance, it looks like a risk-off rotation, with Bitcoin breaking higher as the market treats it like “digital gold.”💎
But there’s one problem with that narrative:
Gold didn’t see the same kind of capital flow.💵
So I’m n8.31 US-Iran conflict escalates, Brent crude oil returns near $90, market's September Fed rate hike expectations rise to 57-60%, Barclays raises rate hike forecasts, US 2-year Treasury yields surge significantly. Rising oil prices will increase inflationary pressure, suppressing expectations of Fed easing, and the liquidity improvement anticipated by BTC is temporarily set back. In the short term, BTC is weak and volatile, with key focus on the 80000-82000 level; holding above 82000 combined with ETF inflows and a decline in US Treasury yields indicates a shakeout; falling below 77000-78000, combined with negative factors, warns of a deep correction, but a long-term bear market is not yet confirmed.
Note: This is not a major negative factor, but we need to pay attention and manage positions carefully!
$BTC My mold guy has profited again, brothers, I'm leaving first.
Today it did rise, but it hovered around 2450 all day without any sign of breaking through.
I feel Ethereum will have some big moves tonight, after all, the negative impact of the Cronos hacker attack is still fermenting. Although Bitmine increased its holding by 53,000 $ETH, market sentiment hasn't fully recovered.
There might be some sharp dips tonight, so I'm stepping away for a bit.
The ETH I bought at the bottom this morning turned green, so I closed the profitable position to lock in gains.
I placed a long order at 2380.
Why 2380?
Yesterday it dropped to 2388 and bounced back; the 2400 level has withstood three rounds of negative news without breaking.
If there really is a dip to around 2380 tonight, that would be the best entry point.
Stop loss at 2320, target at 2500.
I know many will say, "Aren't you long? Why are you running?"
Running is to better catch the next opportunity.
If the negative news can't break the market, the pullback is an opportunity.
If it dips tonight, I'll buy.
If not, I'll wait.
Anyway, I'm stubborn, the direction hasn't changed, the target is still 2700.
$BTC
$TRUMP
#OKX预言家：CS2波尔图激战，F1与英超接力
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 🚨 $SNDK 1400 might just be a “high-level consolidation,” not a bottom!
One of the biggest pressures on the US stock market right now is that some funds are flowing back into the crypto space and gold; meanwhile, storage prices are gradually returning to rational levels, and the issue of storage oversupply is slowly being absorbed by the market.
Once storage prices find a new anchor range, $SNDK could enter a longer period of volatility or even decline.
1400 is neither cheap nor an extremely high level, but after consolidating for so long combined with capital outflows, what’s more worrisome is the sustained overselling risk if it breaks below 1400.
Don’t just focus on “how much it has dropped”; what really matters is when the funds come back.
#DailyOrbit U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent: Pressure on Iran will continue
On August 31, U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent publicly stated that he would continue to exert pressure on Iran. This statement continued the U.S.'s consistent stance on sanctions against Iran, but did not reveal any specific new measures or action plans.
This statement is set against the backdrop of long-standing tensions between the US and Iran, including nuclear issues, regional security, and energy trade. As the US Treasury Secretary, Bescent is responsible for enforcing financial sanctions, so his remarks are seen as signals of the continuity of US policy toward Iran. However, since the statement lacks substantive content, neither announcing a new sanctions list nor mentioning specific economic pressure measures, the market's reaction may be limited. Historically, such diplomatic statements are often just policy statements, and unless accompanied by specific implementation details, their impact on global markets is usually minimal. Additionally, as a major oil producer, Iran's geopolitical situation may affect oil supply expectations, but current statements have not yet touched the actual supply chain, so oil price volatility may be limited. For the cryptocurrency market, such geopolitical statements usually do not directly change capital flows, unless the situation escalates into military conflict or comprehensive sanctions, triggering risk aversion. Overall, the news has limited incremental information, mostly repeated confirmations of policy continuity, and such expectations are already priced in by the market.
Overall, the event mainly affects geopolitical sentiment and may pose potential disturbances to commodities like crude oil, but it has not reached the level of strength sufficient to drive market trends. For the cryptocurrency market, in the short termLatest market update for August 31 today
Market overview: High-level pullback, short-term weakness.
$BTC is currently around $78,000, with the $80,000 level still not firmly held. BTC's overall gain in August is about 24%, but there was a clear profit-taking near the end of the month. On August 28, BTC spot ETF ended a 9-day streak of net inflows, with a single-day net outflow of approximately $202 million. Meanwhile, on the macro side, the Fed remains hawkish, rate cut expectations have cooled, and geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices higher, all putting pressure on risk assets.
$ETH is relatively stronger, but 2400 is the lifeline.
ETH is currently around $2400–$2450, technically testing the previous breakout zone. More importantly, ETH ETFs have seen 10 consecutive trading days of capital inflows, while BTC funds experienced a brief outflow, indicating institutional interest in ETH remains strong.
Trading strategy:
For BTC, focus on the $77,000–$78,000 support range; only a firm hold above $80,000 qualifies for further upside. A break below $77,000 calls for caution against further pullbacks. For ETH, the key level is 2400; holding above it still indicates strong consolidation, but a break could lead to a retest near 2300.
In short: This is not a time for blind shorting but to wait for structural confirmation. BTC is weaker, ETH relatively stronger; whether ETH can hold 2400 will be the most important short-term signal to watch.BTC holding near $77,844 while higher-beta SOL underperforms points to caution, not capitulation. The market is treating US-Iran oil risk and labor uncertainty as reasons to reduce exposure at the edges, while keeping core crypto positions intact.
My bias is that macro sensitivity matters more here than the BTC-gold correlation narrative. Until risk appetite broadens beyond BTC and ETH, relative strength in the majors looks defensive rather than the start of a clean market-wide advance.
Just my read, not advice.After two months, the top Bitcoin whale increased his position again. Why do so many people say he's bad?
Just now, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor announced that he has purchased another 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318, with a total value of $370 million.
Many people dug up that two months ago, he sold 6,916 BTC at an average price of $62,081, totaling $429 million.
From their perspective, MicroStrategy is too bad. They say he sold at $62,000 and now buys back at $80,000, spending over $80 million more for 4,603 BTC.
Brothers, it's not that he's bad, the situation is completely different. When Bitcoin dropped below $60,000, MicroStrategy held 840,000 BTC with a cost basis of $75,000, meaning an overall unrealized loss exceeding $12 billion.
This unrealized loss made the market doubt whether he could hold on and continue to raise funds to buy Bitcoin. Selling coins back then was a strategic defense.
Now the situation is completely different. Bitcoin's price has surpassed their cost basis, giving him the capital to continue accumulating coins. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold: What is the market trading?
After BTC surged, it did not continue to accelerate, while gold remains strong. This combination is worth attention.
I tend to believe that the enhanced linkage between the two is not because the market suddenly treats BTC as a traditional safe-haven asset, but because funds are simultaneously trading the logic of "scarce assets" and "US dollar credit."
Gold is responsible for defense, BTC for offense.
Currently, BTC is oscillating at a high level, which actually indicates that both bulls and bears are waiting for new catalysts. Especially against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's policy turning hawkish again and intensive employment data releases, funds are unwilling to blindly chase gains at high levels but have not clearly withdrawn either.
Why does gold's strength have reference significance for BTC?
If gold continues to receive capital allocation, it indicates the market still has concerns about:
Inflation risk, fiscal pressure, geopolitical risk, and US dollar purchasing power
In the past, such funds mostly flowed to gold.
But now some funds are also starting to seek more elastic scarce assets, so BTC has shown a certain degree of synchronous performance.
Therefore, we can now observe a very important combination:
Gold hits new highs + BTC remains high without falling + BTC ETF continues inflows
If this combination can persist, BTC's high-level oscillation looks more like digesting profit-taking and waiting for incremental funds rather than a full capital withdrawal.
But gold rising does not necessarily mean BTC will rise.
This is the easiest place to misjudge currently.
Gold has stronger safe-haven attributes, while BTC still clearly has risk asset characteristics.
If subsequent employment data is very strong and the market raises September rate hike expectations again:
US dollar strengthens → US Treasury yields rise → BTC comes under pressure
Even if gold continues to rise due to geopolitical risks, BTC may experience:
Gold up, BTC sideways or even retreat.
Therefore, what really deserves observation is:
Whether gold and BTC can both strengthen simultaneously in a "weak US dollar" environment.
If yes, it means the two are sharing a stronger macro capital logic.
The most important thing for BTC now is "whether the high level can hold."
In the short term, I will not be bearish just because BTC is not rising.
A truly healthy structure is:
Surge → High-level oscillation → Profit-taking release → ETF continues to absorb → Breakout with increased volume again.
What needs the most caution is:
High-level sideways + continuous ETF outflows + US dollar strengthening + US Treasury yields rising.
This means bulls lack new capital support, gold may continue to absorb safe-haven funds, and BTC begins to bear greater valuation pressure.
Next, focus on three variables:
① Whether gold continues to be strong
The stronger gold is, the more it indicates the "hard asset allocation" logic is not over.
② Whether BTC ETF funds continue to flow in
This is the core to judge whether BTC has spot support.
③ US dollar and US Treasury yields
These two variables determine whether current macro liquidity is improving or tightening.
My judgment:
BTC's high-level oscillation now is not bad; it is waiting for the next directional choice.
If:
Gold continues strong + ETF continues inflows + US dollar weakens
Then BTC is very likely to continue seeking an upward breakout.
But if:
Gold rises + US dollar strengthens + ETF outflows
It means funds prefer traditional safe-haven assets, and BTC needs to guard against a high-level pullback in the short term.
In a word: The enhanced linkage between gold and BTC indicates the market is re-emphasizing the "scarce asset" main theme. But gold is responsible for safety, BTC for elasticity. Whether the two can continue to synchronize ultimately depends on whether the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and ETF funds can align in the same direction. $BTC #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $SNDK consolidated sideways over the weekend for two days, and the short position finally took profit!!
Are there any friends who held on? The short position idea given by Caibao on Friday was not validated by the market for a long time. Then, in the early morning, the US-Iran situation escalated, oil prices climbed back above $90, US Treasury yields rose, and market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September clearly cooled down. Funds began reducing positions in highly volatile tech stocks.
Additionally, the recent heat in the storage sector was already cooling off. SanDisk had surged too much earlier, and the market started to become more cautious about the high valuation of AI storage. So once market sentiment weakens, stocks like SanDisk with large gains are prone to be sold off first by funds.
For the short-term rebound, Caibao leans more towards it being a corrective move after a large drop. Personal trading advice: SanDisk’s resistance is around 1500; if the weak rebound can’t break through, you can directly short one lot, with a target near 1470.Saylor proved one thing:
Holding 850,000 BTC doesn't stop you from buying low and selling high.
In the past two months, the Strategy has cumulatively reduced 6,916 BTC, with an average selling price of about $62,081.
Now that BTC has risen to around $80,000, it’s back.
This week, it spent $369.7 million to buy 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318.
Just calculating with these 4,603 BTC:
Sold at $62,081
Bought at $80,318
A difference of $18,237 per coin, totaling about $84 million in price difference.
Of course, this can’t be directly counted as "losing $84 million" since the quantities differ before and after, and selling coins also involves adjustments to the Strategy’s capital structure.
But looking at it together, the show effect is still there:
Retail investors: buy low, sell high
Saylor: capital structure management
It turns out some operations really change their name once the position gets big.
$BTC After Bitcoin climbed from about $63,000 mid-month to above $81,000, it did not remain one-sided, but instead fluctuated at high levels between $77,000 and $80,000. Its cumulative gain in August was still close to 30%, clearly outperforming gold, the Nasdaq, and the S&P. However, the pullback after the $80,000 rally indicates that this rally has shifted from "short squeezing acceleration" to "digesting profits and waiting for macro validation." What is more worth watching is not the daily price movement, but the move it moves with. Grayscale points out that the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen from nearly zero at the beginning of the year to over 50%; The shorter 30-day correlation window even reached 0.81, while the correlation with the Nasdaq dropped from over 60% to about 33%, and the dollar index hovered around -0.86. In other words, the market temporarily no longer treats it as a high-beta tech stock, but rather as a concentrated driver of trading "scarce hard assets": total U.S. Treasury debt surpassed $40 trillion, the Treasury increased long-term Treasury buybacks, the dollar weakened, fiat credit hedge funds flowed back, gold left first, Bitcoin supplemented later—this is a typical resumption of depreciation trading, not just internal crypto rotation. But strengthening the correlation does not mean rising and falling together. This week's concentrated employment data releases, Walsh's hawkish stance still needs to be tested, and if interest rates and dollar expectations change, the correlation will loosen again. If the 80,000 level fails, high-level consolidation will be extended. If gold strengthens again and the dollar weakens, Bitcoin will have a better chance to use the volatility as a stepping stone for the next breakout. #BTC high-level volatility strengthens correlation with gold $43 DASH, are you chasing it?
First, look at the surface: a counter-trend surge, much stronger than the overall market.
It started near 30 in August, with a monthly increase of 35%-45%, reaching a high of 47. Today it opened at 41.7, surged to 44.6 then pulled back, now at 43, with significant intraday volatility. BTC oscillated between 77,000-78,500 during the same period; even with market pullbacks, it could still surge—capital is seeking a safe haven in the privacy sector.
First thing: Zcash ETF listing, is DASH the biggest beneficiary?
On August 25, Grayscale Zcash Spot ETF (ZCSH) was listed on NYSE Arca, the first US privacy coin spot ETF, pushing ZEC to an 8-year high.
Then? Capital started rotating—ZEN rose, and DASH also went up.
DASH can ride this wave because on August 4 it launched Shielded Transactions (using Zcash Orchard zero-knowledge proofs), the biggest privacy upgrade in the project’s 12-year history.
Institutions want to position in the privacy track; ZEC ETF is the main dish, DASH and ZEN are side dishes.
Second thing: a new story for the veteran payment coin
DASH has always been positioned as "digital cash": instant settlement, low fees, masternodes + ChainLocks to prevent 51% attacks, treasury self-sustaining. Circulating supply is 12.82 million, capped at 18.9 million, supply is clean.
The previous issue was insufficient privacy. Now with Shielded online, the shortcoming is addressed; technically it shares the same origin as ZEC and can ride the privacy ETF narrative.
Third thing: a technical signal that must be taken seriously.
Daily chart: from August 21-22, it surged from 32 to 47, then retraced to 37-38 before attacking again to 44.6. Moving averages are bullish (price above 10/20/50/200-day MAs), trend intact.
But daily RSI is 71, entering overbought territory. Today’s high followed by a pullback with an upper shadow indicates clear short-term profit-taking.
Bull vs. bear, you decide
On one side:
Zcash privacy ETF listed, sector sentiment exploded
DASH just completed its biggest privacy upgrade in 12 years, technically sharing origin with ZEC
Bullish moving averages, mid-term uptrend
Monthly rise of 45%, continuous capital inflow
On the other side:
ETF is for ZEC, DASH is just following, sustainability in doubt
RSI 71 overbought, short-term overheated
If BTC breaks below 76,500, privacy sector will collapse with it
Avoid heavy positions near 43, awkward level
Resistance above: 44.5-45 → 47 → 50 (psychological barrier)
Support below: 42-41.5 → 40.5 → 38-39
Trading strategy
Bullish bias:
Wait for a pullback to 41.8-42.5 to buy in batches, or better at 40.5-41.2 (near 20-day MA and previous low). Stop loss at 39.5, target 44.8-45 to reduce 1/3, then watch 47-48, clear near 50. Add positions if pullback holds above 41 with volume-increasing bullish candles.
Short-term or hedging:
If it breaks above 45 with higher RSI and volume stagnation, consider light short positions targeting pullback to 42-41.5, stop loss above 44.8.
Watch BTC direction: if it breaks 76,500 with volume, DASH likely follows down; prioritize reducing positions or waiting.
This DASH rally is mainly "riding the wave"—
Privacy ETF is ZEC’s feast, DASH just had a sip.
But that’s how crypto works: first the leader rises, then the sector, finally the trash.
DASH is not trash; it’s a veteran payment coin with a new skin. But you need to clarify—are you buying technology or sentiment?
The trend exists; if the position is wrong, just wait. Chasing at 43 and bottom-fishing at 41 are two different worlds.
What is your DASH cost basis?
Did you profit from this privacy rally?
$BTC $ZEC $DASH Last week looked like the market finally remembered how to go up. This week looks like the hangover. BTC, ETH, and SOL all ripped hard off the mid-August lows, tagged levels nobody had seen since spring, and then ran straight into Jackson Hole. Kevin Warsh didn’t whisper. He talked like another rate hike is still on the table. Risk assets flinched. That’s the tape you’re trading now not the highlight reel from last Tuesday. BTC is sitting around $78,100 after kissing $81k and getting rejected. T#BTC high-level oscillation, with strengthened linkage to gold $BTC After a surge, it is grinding back and forth at a high level. Recently, the linkage with gold has clearly strengthened. The 90-day correlation has risen above 50%, while it was almost 0 at the beginning of the year. In contrast, the correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped from over 60% to about 33%. U.S. debt has broken 40 trillion, fiscal pressure is high, devaluation trades are resurfacing, and capital is beginning to reprice BTC's scarcity attribute. Volatility is still much greater than gold; during this high-level oscillation phase, focus first on key support levels and avoid chasing highs. $XAU Bearish/Risk Signals:
● Unreleased selling pressure not fully absorbed: Although the initial 911.5 million shares unlocked did not trigger panic selling, millions of shares are still scheduled to unlock on August 20, September, and October, keeping supply pressure looming overhead.
● Extremely expensive valuation: The current P/S ratio is as high as 76x, and the AI business requires about $6.18 in capital investment to generate every $1 of revenue. Without full profitability yet, the market is paying a very high premium for the grand narrative of "Space + AI" in the future.
Elon Musk's remarks as a catalyst: Musk recently stated clearly that "AI will account for 99% of SpaceX's valuation within 5 years," which leads investors to re-evaluate SpaceX using the pricing logic of computing infrastructure companies, providing a new valuation anchor.
Summary:
Overall, SpaceX is currently in a tug-of-war between "short covering driving a rebound" and "high valuation facing unlocking pressure." Between August 31 and September 1, SpaceX is very likely to oscillate and consolidate within the 135 - 150 range. If the price can break out with volume and hold above 150**, it is expected to confirm a trend reversal and challenge the 158 target; conversely, if it falls below the 135 support due to unlocking expectations or profit-taking, it may retest support near **120. Investors are advised to closely monitor the actual trading volume on subsequent unlocking dates and the capital expenditure guidance of the AI business $SPCX