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The curtain wall glass hasn't been fully installed yet, but the tower crane lights are already flickering at the stock market close—AVGO is down, SNOW is flashing up. This isn't a shift in market direction; it's clearly different construction phases of the same blueprint reaching their respective structural inspection days.
Last night I was watching these two cases like monitoring the general contractor's progress chart for a super high-rise building I’m managing. Dell raised its full-year AI server forecast, which basically means the survey report got thicker, and the volume of foundation pit support and pile foundation work has been clearly revised upward. This indicates the underground part hasn't reached the closing stage yet, and the subsequent concrete demand is far from finished. Broadcom’s quarterly report shows $16.7 billion in AI chip revenue, equivalent to the actual steel content in load-bearing walls exceeding design values, but the Q4 guidance is slightly lower—anyone who's done construction knows that doesn't mean the building is collapsing; it means the formwork crew is waiting for the next batch of embedded beam components to arrive, causing a three-day misalignment in the node schedule. The market dropped six points in seconds, like a supervisor spotting a non-load-bearing crack on the edge of a column and panicking first.
What really made the chief engineer take off his hard hat was Snowflake: Q2 product revenue rose 37%, and CoCo accounts climbed to 9,100. In construction terms, this is like the building automation system for the entire building—it’s no longer just selling glass curtain walls and elevators, but modularizing every floor’s HVAC, power, fire protection, and security systems, then telling you the full-year guidance and profit line are still being raised. This is what we often call “the entire building’s intelligent joint debugging completed ahead of schedule, and the model floor lease filing approved.” AI demand is spreading from chips and networks to data clouds and software; in my terminology, the solution is spreading from the structural system to the MEP systems and refined delivery. Structural engineers are naturally happy, but what really makes the owner happily pay the final installment is that intelligent system that can make the whole building operate automatically.
But the market didn’t applaud for long this time. It was too impatient, like the client seeing the topping-out photo and immediately demanding to change the refined delivery date—faster execution, faster results, just like that classic nonsense at the design handover meeting: "Why didn’t your drawings clearly specify the heating and cooling source switch for the transition season?" Of course, the drawings did specify it, just not at the speed he flipped through them.
From my 20 years of industry insight, the current pricing on the XIREN line is basically welding the "expected topping date" and "actual pouring progress" onto one K-line chart. AVGODips isn’t a structural regression; it’s a short-term misreading caused by the scheduling adjustments of the ventilation shaft, elevator shaft, and core tube; SNOWPops is just the exterior decorative lighting being turned on early, which is visually striking but doesn’t represent structural load or inter-story drift angles.
If I had to say one deeper thing: the market always loves to stand downstairs and see whose lights come on first—but those of us who read blueprints know that the first lights on are often temporary iodine-tungsten lamps pulled by the construction team. #AVGODipsSNOWPops AI stocks have been dropping sharply these past few days, and the Nasdaq and S&P have also gone down. I wonder, what does the US-Iran war have to do with the $SKHY I hold? Just review it and you'll understand: US-Iran conflict escalates→ oil prices rise, → market fears inflation, → the market starts betting on a possible Fed rate hike → US Treasury prices fall, yields rise→ tech stock valuations are pressured→ Nasdaq and S&P drop. The US-Iran war affects oil prices, but the most troublesome part of rising oil prices is that they spread throughout the economy. Transportation needs oil, production needs oil, chemicals also need oil. When oil prices rise and the price is spread to consumers, prices go up; high prices lead to inflation. Once inflation hits, the Fed comes out. What is this guy doing? This guy is just about controlling inflation. If he notices inflation, he'll do something special like a 'grandson'—raise rates—not for ordinary people's deposits, but for loans, so companies can borrow less and spend less. When people stop spending, prices go down, and inflation can be controlled. Now everyone is guessing: if rates really go up, then after the hike, new government bonds might pay higher interest. Now, no one wants to keep these old low-interest bonds—they're all being sold. This causes US Treasury prices to fall. If prices fall but interest rates stay, = yields go up. So why did stocks fall before the Fed raises rates? This is actually easy to understand—stocks never wait until news is released. Suppose a month ago, people thought the probability of a Fed rate hike in September was only 20%. Suddenly,BTC ETF flipped from +217 million to -35.3 million in one day, but I first look at whether the price has dropped
I checked the latest capital flow: on 8/31, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about 217 million USD, but on 9/1 it turned into a net outflow of about 35.3 million. The problem is, BTC didn’t crash directly because of this and is still hovering around 77,000.
This is more worth studying than just looking at the ETF alone: if institutional buying is fluctuating but the price can still hold, it means there might be other spot demand in the market absorbing it; conversely, if the ETF turns positive again but BTC still can’t break above 80,000, it’s more like the selling pressure above hasn’t been fully digested.
Also, US Treasury yields remain high, and the macro environment hasn’t truly eased.
My trading direction is very short-term: if it holds around 76,500, I won’t chase shorts; if it stabilizes above 79,500, I’ll increase long exposure; if it breaks below 75,000, I’ll keep waiting.
If the ETF outflows again but BTC just won’t drop, would you see it as truly strong, or just delayed selling pressure?On September 3rd, according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 37.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 62.3%.
So what does a rate hike really mean for $SNDK?
I believe the short-term outlook is definitely bearish. The reason is simple: a rate hike means an increase in the risk-free rate, and high-valuation tech stocks will be the first to face valuation compression.
SanDisk has already risen significantly this year, and the market's expectations for AI storage are very high. Once capital starts to seek safety, highly volatile stocks like SNDK are very likely to be hit first.
But!
SanDisk's fundamentals are indeed very strong now. The company's latest financial report shows that revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 reached $8.97 billion, a year-over-year increase of 372%, with the data center business growing 437% year-over-year.
So I tend to think: the rate hike hits valuations, but not necessarily the fundamentals.
If September's hike is only 25 basis points and the market has already priced it in, then after the bearish news settles, there might even be a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" effect.
However, if the rate hike is accompanied by a continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields, then be mentally prepared for SNDK to pull back to around $1500 or even $1400 in the short term.
So looking at SanDisk now, be cautious of short-term pullbacks, but the mid-to-long-term outlook still depends on AI + storage demand!
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 Today, Arthur Hayes published an article.
He said ETH will reach $10,000 by the end of the year, ENA will hit $0.5, and ETHFI will reach $2.
Many people's first reaction to such calls is — "Here we go again, the big mouth is bragging."
But this time it's different.
Because before he said these things, what he wrote months ago is being validated by the market one by one.
Do you remember what Hayes said a few months ago?
He said: France is the weakest link in the Eurozone. With high fiscal deficits, increasing government debt, and heavy reliance on foreign capital — the French banking and government bond markets will face sustained pressure from capital outflows.
How many people ignored this back then?
And today?
According to the latest data from the pan-European exchange, as of September 2, the yield on French 10-year government bonds has reached 4.17%, approaching the peak in November 2008.
On September 1, it even briefly touched 4.21%, higher than Greece's 4.04%.
A G7 country's borrowing cost is more expensive than the main player in the Eurozone debt crisis.
France's public debt to GDP ratio is expected to reach 118.5% in 2026 and exceed 120% in 2027. The three major French bank stocks plunged more than 4% in a single day at the end of August.
Everything Hayes said is happening.
Now look at the second judgment.
Hayes' logic chain at the time was:
EURJPY falls → Yen strengthens → Asian funds withdraw from European assets → French banks reduce Repo financing → US Treasury financing costs rise → Hedge funds deleverage → New York Fed forced to expand RMP operations → Fed balance sheet expands → Crypto market takes off.
Many thought the chain was too long, "How could every step work out?"
And now?
EURJPY is currently trading around 185.50. French bank stocks have already started to plunge.
The most critical part — the US Treasury has already taken action.
On August 19, the US Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its long-term Treasury buyback operations, increasing from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, effective September 9.
The market directly interpreted this as "mini quantitative easing."
Hayes said the "liquidity valve is being turned on," and it is indeed being turned.
Then the third — and the harshest — judgment.
Hayes said: The Fed's balance sheet expansion speed may accelerate to nearly $10 billion per month.
Many see this number and think, "Only $1 billion, what's the big deal?"
But you need to know the background.
The Fed's RMP (Reserve Management Purchase) plan from December 2025 to March 2026 has a monthly scale of $40 billion; in April it drops to $25 billion; from May to July it drops to $10 billion; and in August it was directly paused to zero.
From $40 billion to zero, this is a cliff-like tightening.
What Hayes predicts is — from zero back up to $10 billion per month.
This is not about incremental change, it's a complete reversal in direction.
Wall Street sees it the same way. TD Securities expects a possible recovery to about $10 billion per month for the remainder of 2026.
The direction is set — liquidity is shifting from "tightening" to "easing."
So what is Hayes himself doing?
All talk and no action is just hot air. But Hayes is not like that.
On August 25, he publicly announced: Maelstrom Fund's risk exposure has reached its limit, with core holdings in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ethena (ENA), and Ether.fi (ETHFI).
Today he reiterated: Bitcoin is the structural long ballast, and the speculative short-term bets by the end of 2026 are — ETH target price $10,000, ENA target price $0.5, ETHFI target price $2.
Then he added — "Where did my ZEC go?"
A joke, but the signal is clear: he has liquidated ZEC and is fully betting on the ETH ecosystem.
By the way, he liquidated ZEC because of the Orchard pool vulnerability in June — when the underlying logic of the narrative is broken, he runs faster than anyone.
This man is not a die-hard bull. He is logic-driven. When logic changes, positions change. When logic holds, he bets all in.
Of course, Hayes is not a god.
He called Bitcoin at $250,000 in 2025, which didn’t happen. He himself admits "most price predictions are inaccurate."
He once lost about $2.04 million on ETH. No one is 100% right.
But the issue is not whether he is "right or wrong."
The issue is — his macro analysis framework is being validated step by step by the market.
French government bond yield at 4.17% — validated.
EURJPY hovering around 185 — validated.
US Treasury expanding buybacks — validated.
Fed may restart balance sheet expansion — Wall Street expects the same.
When an analyst's three or four key judgments are consecutively proven right by the market, and his target price still has 3x upside —
you don't have to follow blindly. But you should at least take a serious look.
What are 99% of KOLs in the market doing?
They cheer when prices rise, scream crash when prices fall.
Today they hype project A, tomorrow project B.
No framework, no logic, just emotions.
And what is Hayes doing?
He watches French government bond yields, EURJPY exchange rate, Fed's RMP operations, and US Treasury's buyback plans.
He sees what others don't, then puts his positions on the line.
I don't blindly follow anyone.
But when someone's macro framework is validated step by step by the market, and his target price still has 3x upside —
it's at least worth spending 30 minutes to read his article.
Not because he called ETH at $10,000.
But because the logic chain he used to derive $10,000 is becoming reality step by step.
French government bonds at 4.17%.
EURJPY 185.
US Treasury buybacks doubled.
Fed may restart balance sheet expansion.
Four clues point to the same direction.
Do you think this is a coincidence, or someone has already seen the game clearly in advance?
$BTC $ETH $ETHFI Historical Pattern: The "Seasonal Curse" of September
September has historically been the worst-performing month for the US stock market. Since 1971, the Nasdaq Composite Index has averaged a return of -0.9% in September; the S&P 500 Index has averaged a decline of 0.7% in September, with positive returns recorded only 45% of the time; the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a decline of 0.8% in September since 1950.
Although the Nasdaq has ended higher in 52% of Septembers, the long-term average return remains negative. This "September Effect" mainly stems from: fund managers returning after Labor Day, adjusting holdings before the fourth quarter, trimming winners or selling losers; some funds' fiscal years ending in September or October, creating a tax-loss harvesting window. $QQQ #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 First, about my position: I am currently still trading swing shorts!
Core macro contradiction in the crypto market: High oil prices drive inflation concerns → US Treasury yields remain elevated → Financial conditions tighten; meanwhile, a slight decline in Japanese yields signals marginal liquidity improvement. The world is caught in a tug-of-war between "inflation pressure vs liquidity easing."
Key drivers impacting crypto:
1. High US Treasury yields remain the biggest suppressing factor. Elevated yields increase funding costs and reduce the appeal of risk assets. If yields continue to rise, BTC/ETH will face pressure; if they sustain a decline, it will support a rebound.
2. High oil prices reinforce the inflation narrative, indirectly supporting rate hike expectations, bearish for crypto. Attention should be paid to whether the Middle East situation escalates further.
3. Decline in Japanese government bond yields provides a mild positive signal, helping to ease yen carry trade pressure and improve global risk appetite, but the magnitude is limited and unlikely to reverse the situation alone.
4. ETF fund flows: Recently, BTC ETFs have seen net outflows, indicating institutional caution in the short term; ETH is relatively better. Fund flows are key to judging support strength.
5. Seasonality and technicals: Historically, September is weak for crypto. BTC key support is at $76,500–77,000, resistance at $78,000–80,000; ETH support at $2,350–2,400, resistance near $2,500.
Subsequent scenarios:
1. High-level consolidation/slight pullback scenario (main short-term scenario, probability about 45–50%)
Oil prices remain high, US Treasury yields do not significantly decline:
• BTC oscillates repeatedly between $76,000–79,000, possibly testing $76,500–77,000 support.
• ETH consolidates between $2,350–2,500.
2. Stabilization and rebound scenario (probability about 30–35%)
US Treasury yields continue to fall + Japanese yields keep declining + ETFs return to net inflows + oil price rise slows:
• BTC retests $80,000.
• ETH rises to $2,500–2,600.
3. Deep correction scenario (probability about 15–20%)
Escalation of US-Iran conflict, sharp oil price surge, US Treasury yields hit new highs, ETFs continue outflows:
• BTC drops to $75,000 or lower.
• ETH tests $2,300–2,350.
Comprehensive judgment:
Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a tug-of-war between macro pressures (high oil prices + US Treasury yields) and marginal easing signals (declining Japanese yields, some cooling in US yields). In the short term, they are more likely to maintain high-level consolidation or slight dips to digest leverage, profit-taking, and seasonal pressures.
The mid-term structure is not yet fully broken—the previous breakthrough of key moving averages and institutional allocation logic still hold. If a pullback to key support is followed by stabilization signals (especially ETF net inflows resuming + US Treasury yields peaking), there is still a chance to rise again. The real directional choice depends on whether US Treasury yields can sustain a decline, whether oil prices cool down, and whether ETF funds return.
Observation priorities:
1. US Treasury yield trends
2. Daily spot ETF fund flows
3. Oil prices and Middle East situation
4. Effectiveness of BTC $77,000 and $76,500 supports Geopolitical risk premium is heating up, but the September rate cut has not been overturned yet
$BTC is oscillating within a 77,000 range, will it rise or continue to fall? Waiting for Friday's non-farm payrolls
Within a week, BTC has retraced from 81,000 down by 5.1%, profit-taking has been digested.
Funding signals are contradictory, but one thing is certain: IBIT accounts for over 80% of BTC ETF net inflows, indicating a high concentration of institutions, which means any macro shock will be amplified. Tonight, we need to see how the US stock market opens.
My thinking: If the current price stays still, the 75,500-76,000 range is a buying window reserved for the brave. The bears should wait to act until after breaking below 74,500. Bulls should not chase above 78,000; a breakout to 80,000 is not expected this week.Schrödinger's Cat: The Duality of Bitcoin
Bitcoin possesses dual attributes, with both existing simultaneously. In different macro environments, different attributes dominate the market.
80% | The Tech Stock Side (Risk Asset Attribute)
• Rises when market liquidity is loose
• Price trends move in tandem with the S&P 500
• Considered a high-beta risk asset
Most of the time, Bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset, following global stock markets and changes in dollar liquidity.
20% | The Digital Gold Side (Scarce Inflation-Resistant Attribute)
• Rises when the market fears currency devaluation
• Price trends move in tandem with gold
• A scarce asset outside the existing financial system
Usually, only during fears of monetary credit or fiat currency devaluation does the digital gold attribute take the lead.
With the high scale of U.S. debt and continuous dollar oversupply, Bitcoin's digital gold attribute is gradually strengthening. Bitcoin's total supply is capped at 21 million, permanently limited. Some market views believe it may gradually become a store-of-value asset in the future, but this attribute has not been fully validated yet, and the dual attributes will continue to alternate. #FOMC Last Set of Data Before: This Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls
Before the FOMC on September 16, the final major employment data—U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls—will drop sharply at 8:30 PM this Friday.
July's figure was -23,000 (a surprise), this time Bloomberg consensus expects +55,000, Reuters +58,000, with the unemployment rate stuck at 4.1%.
Don't just look at the total number; three details are the real signals:
How many jobs were added in the private sector
Whether hourly wages accelerated month-over-month
Whether June and July figures will be revised down further
The transmission to the crypto space is simple:
Nonfarm <30,000 + unemployment rate breaks 4.2% → expectations of rate cuts/pauses in hikes return → BTC absorbs liquidity, first a spike then a pullback, ETH and SOL show greater elasticity
Around 50,000 meets expectations → market confused and volatile, waiting for the September 11 CPI second confirmation
🦅 >80,000 and hourly wages strengthen → Hawkish signals confirmed, September rate hike probability jumps → USD and U.S. Treasury yields both rise, BTC dips first as a salute, contracts market undergoes a shakeout
My personal rhythm:
Don't chase naked before 4 PM Friday, set stop losses outside obvious highs and lows;
After data release, watch USD index + 2-year Treasury yields for aligned trades, more reliable than focusing on a single BTC spike;
If data is truly a cold surprise weak, don't chase impulsively, wait for a pullback to the 15-minute EMA to stabilize before acting—false breakouts on nonfarm nights are especially common this year.
This round is not "Nonfarm decides FOMC," but a triple verdict of Nonfarm + CPI + Waller's speech.
But this Friday's shot will decide whether you get in early or get stopped out by a spike.Conclusion first: The low interest rate environment basically has no impact on the short-term pricing of $BTC, so don't take it as a reason for funds to move. Looking at the market: current price is 77,249, up only 0.37% in 24 hours, with a volatility of 2.1%, and a trading volume of 11 billion USD, indicating narrow fluctuations with no signs of incremental funds. Contract open interest is 8.35 billion USD, leverage has not expanded; the retail long-short account ratio dropped from 1.2676 to 1.2148, and the large account position ratio fell from 2.0162 to 1.9774, both sides are simultaneously reducing exposure. Funding rates are 0.0080%, 0.0038%, and 0.0073%, with longs still paying slightly, which is neutral and does not constitute a squeeze. My judgment: short-term will continue to oscillate weakly; direction depends on an increase in trading volume to be meaningful. Conditions for bullish reversal: trading volume significantly increases and holds above 77,767.8, while the large account position ratio rebounds. Conditions for bearish reversal: breaks below 76,151.9 and funding rates turn negative. The low interest rate on the cash side changes the flow of funds over several years, not these few candlesticks. Bitcoin rose 25% in August, marking the strongest August in 17 years 🔥
But brothers, don't just focus on the peak; the real tough battle is just beginning — if the $81,000 barrier can't be broken, everything is just talk on paper.
First, the reasons for the rise, just a few things:
💰 The U.S. Treasury quietly eased liquidity, doubling the scale of long-term bond repos, the market instantly understood this as a disguised money printing signal, and devaluation trades resumed.
💥 $1.4 billion short positions were liquidated, ETFs attracted $3.05 billion in one month (the strongest since last October), shorts and cash buyers together fueled the rally.
Current situation:
All moving averages are holding steady, BTC is now nearly 50% above the "cost line," looking quite strong.
But the $81,000-$82,000 range is a familiar resistance — it has been rejected several times this year, each time pushing the price back near $58,000, and the cost line for major ETF holders is also stuck here. RSI has surged to 80, indicating this rally might be a bit overheated; chasing highs now is like standing on a mountain top catching flying knives.
Focus on these key points in September:
1️⃣ Can $76,000-$78,000 hold (this is the new floor)?
2️⃣ Will ETFs keep buying, or will profit-taking start?
3️⃣ Will the Fed hike rates in September and stir things up?
4️⃣ The CLARITY Act vote (market only gives a 13% chance of passing, but if it does, it’s like a windfall from the sky).
In plain words:
As long as the $76k-$78k line holds, a pullback = a buying opportunity, not a signal to run. Once it breaks above $82k, $85k and the old highs will come into play immediately. #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
The August nonfarm payroll report will be released this Friday. This is the last major employment data before the September FOMC meeting, and it will directly rewrite the market's pricing of Federal Reserve interest rates. $BTC, gold $XAU, and U.S. stocks will all experience significant volatility.
After the hawkish signal from the Jackson Hole speech, the market's expectation for a September rate hike has risen sharply. The quality of this nonfarm payroll report will determine the main logic of the subsequent market trend. A simple breakdown of three scenarios:
Nonfarm significantly below expectations: employment cools down, rate hike expectations fall, U.S. Treasury yields decline, benefiting BTC and gold, and risk assets get a recovery window.
Data meets expectations: bulls and bears maintain status quo, the market continues to oscillate within a range, waiting for the final outcome of the FOMC meeting.
Nonfarm significantly exceeds expectations: strong employment resilience, reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise, cryptocurrencies come under pressure, likely triggering a rapid sell-off.
Personal view: do not heavily bet on the outcome in advance at this stage.
Historically, nonfarm payrolls often show "good data first pumps then dumps; bad data first dumps then pumps" deceptive moves. Avoid placing high-leverage directional bets on contracts ahead of time.
Spot positions can keep a basic base holding; contracts should prioritize reducing positions and lowering leverage to avoid slippage risks around the data release.
Key points to watch later: not only the number of new jobs but also the unemployment rate and wage growth are crucial. The three together form a complete signal. After the data release, follow the market signals rather than trying to predict in advance, which is far more reliable.Short $ZEC at the current price? Let me speak plainly.
$ZEC is now around eight to nine hundred dollars, which looks quite expensive, but in my eyes, it's just an old privacy coin veteran with fatal old wounds that could collapse at any time. Let's start with the harshest point:
The Orchard pool vulnerability exposed in June 2026 was a disaster-level issue. A fatal bug that allowed unlimited minting and was undetectable lay dormant in the system for a full four years. It was only discovered with the help of AI. As a result, the price was halved, Arthur Hayes completely liquidated and fled, even shouting "Holy Trinity is dead." Although it has been fixed now, trust has been shattered. The core selling point of privacy coins is "trustworthy privacy," but if they can't even prove whether their supply can be secretly printed, what's the point?
At this price level, I personally think the logic for shorting is straightforward:
After a previous surge to a high, trust is damaged and not fully restored, regulatory clouds linger, and real demand doesn't keep up with the price. Once market risk appetite drops again or some negative news emerges, there's significant room for a pullback. Guys, Bitcoin's recent pullback is quite deep. BTC's latest price is around $77,000-$77,300, down more than 4,000 points from the August 28 high of 81,520. After several days of decline, the market is digesting the pressure from September rate hike expectations soaring from 35% to over 65%. ETH also weakened to around $2,380. Gold was trading at about $4,389 per ounce during the same period, rising 1.39% instead of falling. One is falling, the other is rising—what happened to the promised "digital gold"? Correlation is strengthening, but directions are starting to diverge. Data from September 2 shows that Bitcoin's 90-day rolling correlation with gold has climbed above 50%, while correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped sharply from 60% to around 33%. As of September 1, the 30-day correlation reached 0.8, a record high. Grayscale research points out this is a structural behavioral shift rather than statistical noise. Correlation soared from near zero at the beginning of the year to a historic high, showing that the logic is indeed changing—institutions are reclassifying Bitcoin from a "high-beta tech stock" to a "basket hedge against inflation and fiscal uncertainty." U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with an annual fiscal deficit of about $1.9 trillion—when government spending far exceeds revenue, investors begin to look for assets that cannot be printed. Bitcoin, with a hard cap of 21 million coins, is being examined by institutions as a "digital equivalent" in the same basket as gold. But high correlation does not mean the same rise or fall, nor does it mean the same magnitude. This pullback precisely exposes the core contradiction: the Bitcoin and the yellow marketStop watching MACD: Arthur Hayes' "Polaris" indicator works better than any technical analysis
While you stare at candlesticks drawing gates, counting waves, watching golden and death crosses every day, the real money is watching a currency pair you've never paid attention to.
Euro against Japanese Yen. EURJPY.
Arthur Hayes says this is his "Polaris."
Not BTC dominance, not the US dollar index, not gold.
It's an exchange rate of a European currency against the Yen.
Today, it's around 185. Hayes expects it to fall to 140 or even lower by June next year.
A drop of 45 points. Sounds like not much?
This 45-point drop means the Federal Reserve will be forced to expand its balance sheet by nearly $10 billion per month.
It means Bitcoin and the crypto market will usher in a new wave of liquidity flood.
It means all those technical indicators you're watching now are just noise.
Let's answer a basic question first: Why EURJPY?
It's not an ordinary exchange rate pair.
Hayes' logic chain is like this—
France is the most fragile link in the Eurozone. High fiscal deficits, increasing government debt, heavily reliant on foreign capital (mainly Germany and Japan) for financing. France's Target2 deficit has shifted from a net creditor to the largest debtor.
Now, US Treasury Secretary Bessent is pushing for a weaker dollar relative to the Yen, while guiding funds from Japan and other Asian countries to return.
Japanese companies are being asked to accelerate overseas capital repatriation.
What does this mean?
It means Japanese and Asian investors will start reducing their holdings of European assets.
French government bonds and bank debts are being sold off.
And French banks hold about 20% share in the US repo market.
This is the real key.
What happens once French banks start reducing repo market financing due to capital outflows?
The financing cost of US Treasuries will be pushed up.
Hedge funds will be forced to deleverage.
Then the New York Fed will be forced to expand repo market operations (RMP).
The Fed's balance sheet expansion speed will accelerate to nearly $10 billion per month.
Got it?
EURJPY falls → French banks under pressure → repo market tightens → Fed forced to ease → dollar liquidity floods → Bitcoin and crypto assets take off.
This is not mysticism. It's a complete transmission chain from exchange rates to liquidity.
Hayes calls this "tighten first, then ease."
Pain first, then pleasure.
The drop in EURJPY is the "pain" signal—and also a leading indicator that easing is coming.
Once you see EURJPY start to accelerate downward, you know:
The Fed's money printing machine is about to start.
So how to act specifically?
Hayes' own allocation:
Ballast: Bitcoin structural long (hold long-term, do not move).
Speculative bets (until the end of 2026):
ETH: target price $10,000
ENA: target price $0.5
ETHFI: target price $2
At the same time, he suggests paying attention to EURJPY put options.
What does that mean?
While going long on crypto assets, you can short EURJPY—making money on both sides.
If EURJPY falls, your put options profit, and liquidity expansion boosts your crypto positions.
This is both a hedge and a leverage.
There is also a key date.
September 9.
The US Treasury's expanded Treasury repo operations officially start. Single repo size will at least double from $2 billion to $4 billion.
Covering 10-year to 30-year Treasuries, running until November 4.
This is not a small matter.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent even hinted at possibly using the Treasury's $935 billion general account funds at the Fed to finance repos.
If this isn't balance sheet expansion, what is?
Some may ask: Where is Bitcoin now?
As of today (September 3), BTC is fluctuating around $77,000.
After surging to $81,000 last week, it pulled back and declined for two consecutive days.
The Fear & Greed Index fell from last week's high to 62, still in the "greed" zone.
Regarding ETFs, August was the best month this year. But September started with volatility—over $200 million outflow on September 1, then inflow on September 2.
The market is waiting for a direction.
And Hayes' signal is clear: the liquidity inflection point is right ahead.
To be honest.
Many people have been trading crypto for years but don't even know what the "repo market" is.
They stare at 15-minute candlesticks every day, rush in when MACD golden cross appears, cut losses when death cross appears.
But the real macro turning points are never hidden in those indicators.
They are hidden in the balance sheets of French banks.
Hidden in Japanese companies' capital repatriation policies.
Hidden in the scale of Fed repo market operations.
Hidden in the EURJPY exchange rate you've never glanced at.
Hayes puts it bluntly: As a family office CIO, he only focuses on one or two price indicators to judge whether fiat liquidity is accelerating or decelerating.
He chose EURJPY.
What's your "Polaris"?
If it's still MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands—
Then you're not playing the same game as institutions.
Add EURJPY to your watchlist.
It tells you more than any technical indicator—
What the Fed will do next.
$BTC $ETH $ENA Arthur Hayes' "Liquidity Domino": A Complete Deduction from EUR/JPY to ETH $10,000
Arthur Hayes says ETH will reach $10,000 within the year.
Not based on faith.
But based on a macro domino effect starting with "EUR/JPY falling to 140."
Don't scroll away. This might be the most important macro deduction you see this year.
On September 3, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a new article.
He reiterated his price targets for the end of 2026:
ETH → 10,000
ENA → 0.5
ETHFI → 2
His fund has described its position as "maximizing risk exposure."
But this is not a trade call. Hayes provides a complete macro logic chain.
This chain starts with EUR/JPY and ends with the Federal Reserve printing money, passing through France, Japan, the repo market, hedge funds—ultimately impacting your ETH holdings.
Domino 1: EUR/JPY 185 → 140.
Hayes says this is his current macro trade's "North Star."
He expects the exchange rate to drop from about 185 currently to 140 or lower by June next year.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is pushing for a weaker dollar against the yen while guiding policies to repatriate funds from Japan and other Asian countries and putting pressure on European assets.
Bessent has publicly urged the Bank of Japan to raise rates multiple times recently, and the market has fully priced in a 0.25% rate hike this month.
This is not speculation. This is the policy direction of the U.S. Treasury.
Domino 2: France's ticking bomb.
Where is the first impact of Japanese capital repatriation?
France.
Hayes points out that France's high fiscal deficit, rising government debt, and dependence on foreign capital make it the most vulnerable link in the Eurozone.
The data doesn't lie—
As of September 2, France's 10-year government bond yield reached 4.17%, approaching the peak in November 2008.
On September 1, it even spiked to 4.21%, the highest since 2008.
France's total government debt to GDP ratio is expected to reach 118.5% in 2026 and exceed 120% in 2027.
Zero economic growth + exploding debt + political division = the bomb is already smoking.
Domino 3: French banks exit the repo market.
French banks are major holders of French government bonds. When bonds are sold off, banks suffer.
On August 27, shares of Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, and BNP Paribas fell between 3.3% and 4.3%.
Hayes' logic is: as French government bonds and bank debts are sold off, French banks—especially globally systemically important French banks—will reduce repo market financing activities.
French banks account for about 20% of the U.S. repo market.
Once they withdraw—
repo rates will soar.
Domino 4: The Fed is forced to expand its balance sheet.
This is the most critical link in the chain.
French banks exit the repo market → push up U.S. Treasury financing costs → force hedge funds to deleverage.
Hedge funds deleverage → market needs liquidity → New York Fed is forced to expand repo market operations (RMP).
Hayes expects the Fed's balance sheet expansion to accelerate to nearly $10 billion per month.
Note a detail—the Fed unexpectedly paused RMP purchases in August, dropping to zero. Wall Street originally expected it to remain around $10 billion.
But Hayes judges the pause is temporary. Once this French bomb explodes, the Fed has no choice but to reopen the liquidity taps.
This is not quantitative easing. This is "forced balance sheet expansion"—liquidity compelled by the global financial market.
Domino 5: Liquidity floods into crypto.
The final card.
The Fed increases dollar supply through RMP and FIMA repo mechanisms → global fiat liquidity grows.
The crypto market is one of the fastest beneficiaries of liquidity expansion.
Hayes' original words: this series of changes will ultimately form a liquidity chain of "tightening first, then flooding."
The EUR/JPY decline will become a leading indicator of increased French bank risk and imminent dollar liquidity expansion.
In other words: stop staring at candlesticks. The real signal is in the EUR/JPY exchange rate chart—that's the countdown to the Fed's next round of money printing.
Putting these five cards together—
Domino 1: Bessent pushes for a weaker dollar → EUR/JPY falls from 185 to 140
Domino 2: Japanese capital repatriation → French government bonds sold off → yields spike to 4.17%
Domino 3: French banks hurt → exit the repo market
Domino 4: Repo rates soar → hedge funds deleverage → Fed forced to expand balance sheet
Domino 5: Dollar liquidity floods → crypto market takes off
ETH → 10,000
Some may ask: is this logic reliable?
Look at the data yourself.
France's 10-year government bond yield was 3.34% in early March, 3.95% on July 31, 4.09% on August 18, and 4.17% on September 2.
It rose nearly 100 basis points in half a year—and is accelerating.
The France-Germany yield spread has widened for three consecutive months, exceeding 87 basis points on August 21.
Analysts say: even a 100 basis point spread wouldn't be surprising.
French bank stocks have already started to fall.
This is not theoretical deduction. This is reality happening now.
Most people look at the crypto market only by whether BTC is up or ETH is down.
But real money never flows in candlesticks. It flows in exchange rates, bond yields, and the repo market.
Hayes understands this, so he dares to call ETH $10,000.
You don't understand this, so you can only chase highs and sell lows.
Hayes suggests investors watch EUR/JPY put options while maintaining a structural long position in Bitcoin.
His logic is clear: the faster EUR/JPY falls, the more aggressively the Fed prints, and the higher your ETH rises.
Deductions don't need to be 100% accurate. They just need to help you see further when others are still watching candlesticks.
$ETH $BTC $ENA $BABYDOGE raises funds under the banner of "dog charity," but the team keeps cashing out—so is this really charity, or just treating the market like an ATM? $BABYDOGE is still in a "not fully circulated" state, with only 43% circulation. Since November 2024, tokens worth $12.02 million have been unlocked, all flowing to exchanges. A multi-signature wallet (suspected to be held by the team/early investors) has deposited tokens worth about $46.74 million to Binance within 8 months.BTC is the survival baseline: Hayes regards Bitcoin as a “long-term structural bull,” essentially the ultimate hedge against global central banks' fiat currency depreciation and macro liquidity. BTC is responsible for solving "account security" and survival issues. The ETH system is the breakout point for excess returns: whether it's ETH at $10,000, or ENA ($0.5) and ETHFI ($2), the underlying logic is all about betting on the recovery of Ethereum ecosystem liquidity and basis trading. Under the current regulatory pressure and liquidity preference, ZEC neither receives incremental institutional ETF funds nor has a sustainable token economic loop. When capital efficiency is low, smart capital will never maintain religious loyalty to any token—lacking momentum, it will directly cut positions; capital always chases the highest turnover direction. Even Hayes, who was previously promoting ZEC, can casually complete a full liquidation with a joking remark. Retail investors should avoid the narrative of “widowhood” given by project teams. Core positions should be placed in cornerstone assets like BTC that resist risk, while speculative positions should precisely target high Beta assets with strong liquidity expectations and elastic valuations (such as ETH ecosystem derivatives). Hayes' statement is not a call to blindly chase highs but a declaration that the next phase of capital will accelerate the shift from inefficient narratives to a focus on "Ethereum yields and derivatives infrastructure." $BTC $ETH $ZEC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #Robi Just checked the market, and the 77000 level is really frustrating.
When the data came out yesterday, I felt something was off. The manufacturing PMI was below expectations, which should have been bullish, but the price index still held above 71, so inflation just won't come down. The JOLTS job openings were slightly higher than the previous value, meaning employment isn't dead yet—these two data points are conflicting, pushing the probability of a rate hike above 66%. As US Treasury yields rise, the crypto market has become the worst hit.
Last night the price dipped to around 76200, and I almost got my order filled, but missed it—what a pity. Then it rebounded to 77300, but I didn't chase it. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages above are pressing down hard; it looks like an oversold bounce rather than a reversal. Now the price is hovering at 77313, with the 24-hour high and low out: high at 77770, low at 76204, a daily range of over 1500 points, but no clear direction yet.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the real test. If the data is weak and rate hike expectations cool down, the rebound could continue; if the data is strong, the 77000 level likely won't hold, and if it really drops, the 75000 area might be tested.
I've personally reduced my position to 30%. At times like this, betting heavily on direction is like flipping a coin. Going long risks getting stopped out by moving averages, while shorting risks a surprise non-farm rally pulling prices back. Better to wait and see until the 8:30 data release.
In trading, sometimes doing nothing is the best move. Avoiding uncertainty beats reckless action.
#NonFarmPayrolls #BTC #RateHikeExpectations
$BTC $ETH In the past few days, the market has already made its direction very clear. Binance launched over 1,000 physical delivery options for US stocks and ETFs on September 1; Bybit is also preparing to launch 24/7 stock perpetual options on September 17, starting with SpaceX and Nvidia. Looking further ahead, spot tokenization, stock perpetual, and options are no longer just imagined—they're now the gateways exchanges are scrambling for. The real change isn't that a coin has risen, but that assets are being repackaged in a cryptographic way. Stablecoins: Bringing the US dollar onto the chain first Stablecoins aren't challenging the dollar, but helping it change its form. It turns the US dollar into a 24/7, programmable payment layer that can flow across borders. Currently, the stablecoin market is still dominated by dollar assets, with large amounts of US Treasuries in reserves. As a result, the dollar is not only circulating within the banking system but also on the chain. After the GENIUS Act was implemented, this path became clearer. The US chose "private stablecoins + regulatory framework," not its own CBDC. For those in emerging markets, this is straightforward: if you want to hold US dollars, do cross-border settlements, or do on-chain collateral, the threshold is lower. So the current picture is actually quite clear. The US dollar first occupies the on-chain settlement layer with stablecoins, then crypto exchanges use US stock assets to occupy the on-chain trading layer. The two sides are not replacing the other, but feeding each other traffic. From coins to US stocks, then to tokenized US stocksIn the morning, while drinking coffee and checking on-chain data, I casually read a few pieces of news, and then saw a piece of news that immediately woke me up: Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, UBS, and 21 other top global financial institutions are actually planning to establish a new company dedicated to issuing dollar-denominated stablecoins. ☕️ To be honest, when I saw this news, my first reaction was: the moat between USDT and USDC is about to be dug? But after thinking carefully about their actions and the logic behind them, I realized things aren't that simple—you could even say that traditional finance (TradFi) has finally stopped pretending. We used to think stablecoins were just a 'wild method' created by the crypto world for hedging and trading. But now, the goal of these 21 major banks isn't to immediately grab USDT's trillion-dollar market share. What they are really fighting for is control over the "infrastructure of blockchain-based digital currencies." Think about it: from a few banks testing the waters in October 2025 to now 21 giants joining forces, what does this mean? It shows that traditional finance has completely abandoned the debate over "whether to include stablecoins in the system" and fast-forwarded to "we have to build this highway ourselves." They want to use their own issued stablecoins to take over future payments and digital asset settlements. It's like when everyone used to walk dirt roads, but now Wall Street is driving a roller to pave the asphalt road. 🛣️ As a trader who battles daily at candlestick lines, I think the biggest lesson from this is that the underlying logic of the crypto market is undergoing a qualitative change. Look, it's not just stablecoins, but the entire W$2Z
Direction judgment: Neutral to bearish, awaiting confirmation
Short term is neither a bullish trend position nor a reckless short position, but the eve of a directional choice in the bottom range:
Bullish logic: Kalshi partnership provides a real utility story, SEC no-objection letter reduces regulatory risk, Solana high-performance chain has a strong demand for low-latency networks. If BTC stabilizes and 2Z daily closes back above $0.0579 and holds on the pullback, a recovery to $0.065→$0.083 can be expected.
Bearish logic: On October 2, 2026, about 16.55% of total supply (≈1.655 billion tokens) will unlock, with Jump Crypto (28%) + Foundation (29%) holding concentrated stakes. Liquidity is thin (24h volume/market cap about 2%), so any risk aversion is likely to first break through $0.054 down to $0.046.
Consensus: Sentiment indicators across platforms at 48/100, 7-day drop of 4–5%, short-term forecast model baseline sees year-end price at $0.0477, leaning cautious Behind the Double Decline: Divergence in Safe-Haven Logic, Short-Term Gold Advantage
Recently, $BTC and $XAU have fallen simultaneously. Although it seems like the "safe-haven attribute" has failed, it is actually a resonant correction under the expectation of liquidity tightening, and their pricing logics have not converged.
Gold's core anchor lies in the US dollar and real interest rates. Currently, the US Dollar Index is approaching 99, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen to 4.8%, and the probability of a rate hike in September has increased to 67%, putting direct pressure on the non-yielding asset gold. BTC is more closely tied to risk appetite and global liquidity; this round of decline mainly reflects selling pressure triggered by the US stock market correction and negative sentiment transmitted from miner income after the halving.
Technically, BTC has lost the $80,000 level and in the short term needs to observe support in the $73,000–$75,000 range; the trend remains weak before returning to $80,000. Gold is focused on whether the $4,300/ounce weekly level can stabilize; if the dollar's rise slows, the probability of a gold price rebound is higher.
In the short term, gold is supported by central bank purchases and its inflation-hedging properties, making it more defensive in the early stages of liquidity contraction; BTC's long-term odds require waiting for a restart of macro easing signals. If choosing between the two, gold currently has a higher winning probability, while BTC is better suited to exchanging time for space. Patiently waiting for the Federal Reserve's policy turning point is the key to determining the strength of both.
$BTC
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
I am the mid-term intelligence guy. In August, spot BTC ETFs aggressively absorbed 3.5 billion, and corporate treasuries were also buying up,
Remixpoint even cleared $ETH /SOL/XRP/DOGE to shift holdings into BTC, Grayscale said BTC's correlation with gold has risen to nearly 50%, strengthening the macro hedge narrative.
But on September 1, ETFs saw a net outflow of 236 million, led by IBIT and Fidelity selling, while ETH/$SOL /XRP ETFs still had inflows.
Macroscopically, US Treasury yields are approaching 4.8%, oil prices broke 90, September rate hike expectations are 66%-70%, plus geopolitical tensions, putting $BTC under pressure.
On-chain demand is weakening, Coinbase premium is negative, resistance is heavy between 83K-86K, Glassnode indicates long-term supply and 14 billion in options positions expiring on September 25 are weighing down, leading to range-bound oscillation. Miner hashrate has fallen from 1.3 ZH/s, shifting towards AI/HPC.
In the mid-term, I see consolidation and accumulation, waiting for macro and options pressure to ease.
#BTC high-level pullback, gold correlation under test $XAU Last night I said gold should stop falling, and when it rises back to break even, of course, it's time to retreat quickly💨!
Last night, the "small non-farm" ADP employment data was only 38,000, far below expectations.
The rate hike expectations cooled down a bit, the dollar and US Treasury yields both fell, and gold took the opportunity to catch its breath and rebound.
However, the Middle East is still in conflict, oil prices remain high, and with the Fed's Wash previously hawkish, the shadow of a September rate hike still looms. Friday's non-farm payrolls are the main event.
Trump spoke in the early morning, saying the strike on Iran "won't last long," and also claimed "full control of the Strait of Hormuz," and "oil prices will fall." Once this statement came out, the market immediately interpreted it as the geopolitical conflict not spiraling out of control. The previously war-driven surge in oil price expectations was suppressed, easing inflation concerns, with both the dollar and US Treasury yields falling, allowing gold to rebound over 1%.
For gold, Trump's claim that "oil prices will drop" actually became a short-term positive—reduced inflation pressure and cooled rate hike expectations pushed gold prices from a one-month low up to around 4400. However, technically, the MA5 at 4404 and MA10 at 4513 are still overhead resistance, so this is only an oversold rebound. Tomorrow night's non-farm payrolls will be the key to whether it can continue to surge upward.
In trading, stop-loss is still very important; resisting positions is highly inadvisable. Extreme market conditions are too passive. Stop-loss and then recover can bring you back. The mentality of resisting positions is completely different. Remember, stop-loss is always right. As long as the green hills remain, there is no fear of no firewood. Respect the market.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 $BTC $ETH
The September non-farm payroll is not an isolated indicator; ultimately, the Federal Reserve's decision weighs more on inflation CPI than on non-farm employment. Even if employment weakens, if inflation rebounds, rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
The current market has already priced in expectations of cooling employment; the real market movement comes from data significantly deviating from expectations, while neutral data often returns to oscillation after a pulse.
Scenario 1: Weak Non-farm (new jobs < 50,000, unemployment rate ≥ 4.2%, wages ≤ 0.2%)
Meaning: Employment further cools, strengthening evidence of a soft landing.
Federal Reserve: October rate hike expectations significantly cool down, market trades ahead on rate cut narratives.
Assets: Dollar declines, US Treasury yields fall; US stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies tend to rise favorably according to Securities Times.
Scenario 2: Neutral Non-farm (new jobs 50,000–100,000, unemployment rate 4.1%, wages 0.2–0.3%)
Meaning: Employment slows moderately, neither hot nor cold.
Federal Reserve: Maintains wait-and-see stance, keeps rates unchanged, awaits CPI inflation data for final judgment.
Assets: Limited market volatility, short-term oscillation, returns focus to inflation data.
Scenario 3: Strong Non-farm (new jobs > 120,000, wages > 0.3%)
Meaning: Labor market heats up again, wage inflation resurges.
Federal Reserve: Probability of restarting October rate hikes rises sharply, high rates maintained longer.
Assets: Dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields rise; US stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies face pressure and pull back.⚠️Risk Warning: The content is only a market viewpoint sharing and does not constitute investment advice
The Beige Book signal is out, and the market's answer is hidden in the AI theme
The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book has been released, delivering a very subtle signal to the current market. The overall economy is moderately expanding, not weakening as imagined, and the biggest growth engine surprisingly comes from AI-driven data center investments.
Looking closely at the report, there is a clear internal economic divergence. High-end consumption remains strong, but ordinary people are becoming increasingly sensitive to prices, and companies find it difficult to pass on rising costs. Prices are moderately rising, employment is uneven, manufacturing and defense labor markets are booming, while retail and hotels have already started to contract. This split scenario, with one side hot and the other cooling, makes the Fed's policy choices difficult.
On one hand, AI capital expenditure supports the economic foundation, reducing the urgency for rate cuts; on the other hand, ordinary consumption is under pressure, and the risk of economic downturn has not disappeared. This indecisive state directly prolongs the market's oscillation cycle.
From the market perspective, the US stock AI sector receives fundamental support, while the crypto market is stuck in a wait-and-see mode. Everyone is guessing whether the economy is not bad enough for rate hikes to return, or whether the data's hidden weakness will bring rate cuts earlier.
Short-term trends are hard to form a one-sided direction; the pulse rebounds from news generally lack sustainability. Before the heavy non-farm payroll data arrives, oscillation and game-playing remain the main theme. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$BTC $ETH $NVDA US August ADP Employment Shows Smallest Increase Since January: Market Impact Analysis
The US August ADP "small nonfarm" data shows private sector job additions of only 38,000, below market expectations of about 47,000 and also below the revised 46,000 in July, marking the smallest increase since January this year.
1. Indicates Cooling in the US Job Market
Hiring pace has clearly slowed; companies are becoming more cautious about future economic prospects; employment in manufacturing, professional business services, and other sectors has declined. New jobs are mainly concentrated in education, healthcare, construction, and leisure services.
This means the US economy is shifting from a "strong employment + high inflation" state toward "low growth + easing inflation."
2. Impact on Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy: Dovish Bias
Weaker employment data → reduced pressure for the Fed to continue raising rates:
Positive:
Rising expectations for rate cuts; US Treasury yields may fall; valuation pressure on tech stocks eases.
Risks:
If employment deteriorates rapidly, the market may start pricing in a "recession."
Currently, the market is more focused on upcoming official nonfarm payroll data, as ADP and nonfarm figures do not always align.
3. Impact on Asset Prices
US Stocks: Slightly positive for tech stocks
AI, semiconductors, and high-valuation growth stocks benefit from lower rate expectations; the Nasdaq may find support.
US Dollar: Slightly weaker
Increased rate cut expectations; the US Dollar Index may come under pressure. $ETH #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #Nonfarm data divergence before release, September rate hike expectations heat up
Today's data set is quite contradictory.
The US August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, slightly lower than July's 55.6, but still above 50, indicating manufacturing is still expanding, though momentum has clearly slowed. Looking at July's JOLTS job openings, 7.27 million, slightly below the market expectation of 7.31 million, but a small rebound compared to June's revised 7.18 million. Labor demand hasn't completely collapsed, but it's not strong either.
The market reaction is straightforward—CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen to about 66%. In other words, people are starting to worry again that the Fed will take action.
For the crypto space, this data set doesn't provide a one-sided answer. Manufacturing is cooling, employment hasn't collapsed, but rate hike expectations are rising. The real drama will be the August nonfarm payroll report at 8:30 PM Beijing time on September 4. After that data is released, how the dollar and US Treasury yields move, and whether risk appetite will be repriced, is what BTC and the US stock market truly have to face.
The market is still watching. $BTC has been relatively stable these days, and funds are cautious. If the nonfarm report signals "employment too strong" again, rate hike expectations may further rise, causing noticeable short-term pressure; conversely, if employment clearly cools, the market might breathe a sigh of relief. So don't rush to conclusions yet—keep an eye on the nonfarm data. Once the data is out, the direction will be clearer. The Federal Reserve is caught between jobs and oil prices
Employment is soft, but the probability of a rate hike hasn't dropped much. It's not that the market doesn't understand; the Fed is caught between jobs and oil prices.
July JOLTS was soft: job vacancies remain around 7.3 million, with both hiring and quits subdued. Logically, this should be a relief. Yet around September 2, the market still priced in about a 60%+ chance of a 25 basis point hike in September (secondary sources commonly show about 66%).
On the other hand, oil prices remain firm: WTI settled around 90.22, Brent around 94.65 (around September 2). The ISM prices component is still near high levels. Soft labor data hasn't overturned the inflation narrative, it just hasn't reinforced it either.
For BTC, this is a sandwich market:
On one side, worries about recession; on the other, concerns that oil prices will push inflation up. The price hovers around 77,000 (as of secondary market on September 2), and ETFs just flipped from red to green.
The timeline to resolve this sandwich is short: September 4 Nonfarm Payrolls, September 11 CPI, September 16 FOMC meeting.
Only if both jobs and oil prices soften will the odds ease.
Soft jobs and firm oil prices are the worst for the Fed, and holders shouldn't expect mystical moves from $BTC.The market is getting increasingly nervous about a September rate hike, with current expectations climbing to around 60%+. But I’m not convinced this is as straightforward as it looks. Fed officials have been talking tough, and the market is quickly pricing in a more hawkish scenario. Sometimes, that can create a setup where fear builds faster than the underlying fundamentals change. What’s more interesting is where the smart money is moving. Despite the macro pressure, institutional flows into 🔥Latest statement from Fed's Williams: Inflation is slowly declining, and the current interest rate is already at an appropriate level.
Plain translation: Don't expect rapid rate cuts; high interest rates will continue to be maintained.
What this means for the crypto market:
$BTC is currently a high Beta risk asset, not a safe haven.
High U.S. Treasury yields will suppress overall risk appetite in the crypto space.
Even with continuous spot ETF buying, a short-term unilateral short squeeze rally is unlikely.
📊 Market reality:
There are tens of billions of short positions stacked above 81338, but the macro environment no longer provides strong support.
The double support at 76800‑77500 is repeatedly tested, combined with Middle East geopolitical disturbances, two-way spikes will become the norm.
ETH, SOL, and altcoins have greater volatility, with pullbacks often larger than Bitcoin's.
💡 Practical approach:
Abandon the fantasy of immediate massive liquidity injection and violent unilateral rallies.
Wait for pullbacks to support before positioning; do not chase rallies or heavily bet on news.
Keep leverage as low as possible; no matter how noisy the news, trading discipline must be silently enforced by oneself.
Do not get carried away by profits; learn self-reflection from losses; always respect the market. Recently, market concerns over the September rate decision have clearly intensified, with the probability of rate hikes now at 60%+ in the market. But I believe there may be some amplification of sentiment here. After Fed officials send hawkish signals, the market tends to reprice quickly, and risk assets will anticipate the worst-case scenario in advance. What is truly worth watching is whether subsequent data can continue to support this expectation. Meanwhile, institutional funds have shown no signs of a full withdrawal. Flows to $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs remain divergent, with some funds re-entering after price corrections. For me, this is more important than simply focusing on the "rate hike probability." Next key points: 🔹 NFP employment data If the labor market cools significantly, policy expectations for September may change again. 🔹 Wages and unemployment rates Looking solely at nonfarm numbers are not enough; wage growth and unemployment rates also affect market pricing. 🔹 BTC Key Support If BTC can hold its key area under macro pressure, it indicates the market's support capacity is not weak. 🔹 ETF Funds If ETF funds continue to flow in, the market may be preparing for the next phase of the market ahead of time. So now, I won't blindly bear just because of a "rate hike probability." The real answer is likely to come after the NFP is released. The market can create panic, but funds won't lie easily. Controlling position positioning and patiently waiting for confirmation is more important than chasing highs and selling losses before data releases 📊#伦敦证券交易所与Payward拟推英股代币化
The boss has something to say
LSE officially announced a partnership with Kraken's parent company Payward to launch tokenization of UK stocks. The plan is to put all FTSE 100 index constituent stocks on-chain, with the first batch going live in the coming weeks and trading on LSE24 by 2027.
This is different from Robinhood Chain. Robinhood is a chain-driven Meme market, while LSE is an exchange-led infrastructure buildout; both routes are progressing simultaneously.
xStocks currently only tracks stock prices 1:1 without directly holding the underlying stocks. The next step is to see if it can extend from price exposure to trading, settlement, and shareholder rights, testing whether RWA can truly scale.
The liquidity of the FTSE 100 far exceeds that of small-cap US stocks, making this tokenized trading scenario more realistic. If successful, other exchanges will follow. Traditional exchanges participating in tokenized assets is a long-term positive for crypto infrastructure layers, but implementation will take time.
Currently holding only ZEC short, waiting for a proper pullback to find opportunities.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck. $BTC $ETH $SOL PYUSD net increase of 58.55 million after 03:32, six large minting transactions concentrated to the same address
From 03:32 to 09:45, the Ethereum PYUSD contract minted 64.2003 million tokens and burned 5.6472 million tokens, with a net increase of 58.5531 million tokens; blocks 25891725 to 25893577.
Between 03:32 and 04:14, six minting transactions over 8 million each totaled 58.1549 million tokens, all sent to 0x264b…97b5; at 08:21, another 5.2568 million tokens were burned. On-chain data only confirms supply changes and cannot infer buying or market entry.
If burning continues to offset the net increase, or if the address has no clear downstream destination, the explanation of "new supply entering the market" becomes invalid.
Would you wait for the net increase to decline first, or wait for downstream address confirmation?
Source: Ethereum Blockscout, Paxos; verified at 09:45. Crypto assets are highly volatile; this article does not constitute investment advice.
#PYUSD #stablecoin BTC Trend Analysis
• Short-term (1-2 weeks): Most likely to fluctuate between $76,000–$80,000, awaiting the FOMC direction on September 16. About two-thirds of the rate hike probability is priced in; the real volatility will come after the meeting results.
• Mid-term (1-3 months): Long-term whales accumulating + Strategy continuous buying provide bottom support, but under a macro tightening environment, it is difficult to see a one-sided major bull market. $72,000 is the mid-term bull-bear dividing line.
• Core risk: If after the September rate hike a signal for continued hikes is released, the price may test $72,000 or even lower.
ETH Trend Analysis
• Short-term: Weaker than BTC, $2,360 is a key support; breaking below may test $2,200. Until $2,550 is broken, it is a rebound rather than a reversal.
• Mid-term: ETF inflows + BitMine lock-up represent real demand, but the divergence of "buying without price increase" needs caution. For ETH to have an independent trend, the ETH/BTC exchange rate must stabilize and rise.
• Core risk: Continuous whale selling + high funding rates; if BTC pulls back, ETH’s decline could be 1.5 to 2 times that of BTC.
Key events in the next two weeks
1. September 16: Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision (68% chance of rate hike)
2. Mid to late September: US inflation data (CPI/PPI)
3. September 30: US government funding deadline, risk of shutdown The market on September 2nd was very deceptive.
BTC's New York close barely moved, at $77,341, dropping only 0.05% for the whole day.
But look at the altcoins—ETH -1.2%, XRP -2%, SOL also failed to hold $100. The total market cap dropped 2.46% in one day.
BTC's dominance actually rose to 59.1%. This is a typical risk-off signal: money is fleeing altcoins, cutting the small ones first, keeping BTC as a safe haven.
Why? Oil prices broke $90 again, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.79%, and the market raised the probability of a rate hike on September 16th to 66%.
When macro tightens, altcoins die first. There’s also the nonfarm payrolls this week (9/4). Don’t be fooled by BTC’s current stability—if something unexpected happens, it won’t hold up either.
Are you now holding BTC and playing dead, or have you mostly cleared out your altcoins?
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 Crypto KOL Ansem believes the crypto market is still in the early stages of a bull market, where finding assets with asymmetric returns and the ability to withstand short-term volatility is key📊
There is a strategic shift worth noting:
In the past two years, Meme coins and rotating new trading pairs were the mainstream approach, with low valuation ceilings leading everyone to favor quick in-and-out trades. But in a bull market, high-quality assets actually have greater upside potential, so selecting quality assets and extending holding periods may be more advantageous.
On the capital side, retail investors are bringing more money in:
Growth in mobile users on Pump.fun and Fomo, along with Robinhood Chain continuously guiding stock traders onto the chain, all point to potentially increased liquidity in the future market.
New users pay relatively less attention to market cap changes, which means tokens that achieve wide dissemination may receive stronger capital support.
On the mindset front, his observation is quite interesting:
The trend toward short videos means fewer investors read project documents or study token differences, but this actually creates opportunities for those willing to build a complete investment logic and patiently wait.
The core of this view is that "information asymmetry is being created." Most people are becoming more impatient and reliant on short video decisions, which gives those willing to do deep research and endure volatility a relative advantage. This has little to do with whether the market is "early" or "late" stage; it’s more like a long-term effective barrier to entry.
$BTC $ETH $SOL The overnight market got a breather. Oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields, which had been continuously suppressing risk assets, have temporarily stabilized, and U.S. stocks rebounded led by the tech sector. The lack of further escalation in external pressures also provided room for recovery in the crypto market. However, macro uncertainties have not yet been resolved. Tonight, the market will face initial jobless claims, productivity data, and the ISM services PMI, followed by the U.S. nonfarm payroll report. Before the data releases, capital tends to rotate short-term around highly elastic directions rather than broadly increasing risk exposure. This characteristic is very clear in this morning's market: BTC stabilized first, ETH is still lagging; Layer 2, public chains, and storage sectors showed dispersed gains, small-cap coins saw significantly amplified gains, but the losers list also includes declines exceeding 10% and even 40%. Therefore, the current situation is better defined as a "structural rebound under risk appetite repair" rather than a new round of broad altcoin rally. 1. BTC is near the intraday high, but ETH has yet to follow. $BTC rose about 0.5% in the past 24 hours, trading around $77,400, less than 1% below the intraday high of $77,800. It has maintained slight gains in the last 1 and 4 hours, with volume close to recent averages. BTC has stabilized after the previous continuous decline, but the current gains remain limited. Around $76,200 is the main defense area for this round of recovery; as long as the price stays above it, the market still has conditions for hotspot rotation. The key resistance to watch above is around $77,800. If BTC can break above it, then... Preliminary Basics
Yesterday's ADP (small nonfarm payrolls): actual 38,000, expected 48,000, data weaker than expected, signaling cooling employment; historical statistics: when ADP is weak, the probability that nonfarm payrolls also weaken is about 60%; probability of nonfarm reversing to strengthen (significantly exceeding expectations) is 25%; probability of data fluctuating near expectations is 15%.
The market's consensus expectation for tonight's nonfarm payrolls: an increase of 55,000.
Three scenarios + probabilities + BTC market reaction
Scenario 1: Nonfarm < 55,000 (employment continues to weaken) | estimated probability 60%
Logic: Both small and large nonfarm payrolls weaken in resonance, market prices in earlier rate cut timing, USD and US Treasuries decline
Market script:
First short-term surge and spike; watch out for traps: if the market has already risen in advance during the day session, the actual release will be a profit-taking spike and pullback;
Only if the price has not been pre-exhausted will there be sustained upward movement, with bulls dominating.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm > 55,000 (data reverses to strengthen) | estimated probability 25%
Logic: Small nonfarm weak, but official employment resilience exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations delayed, hawkish bias
Market script: USD rallies, BTC quickly dumped in short term, spike down breaking support, bull stop-loss cascade; extreme volatility, contract positions liquidated on both sides.
Scenario 3: Nonfarm just around expectations (45,000~65,000) | estimated probability 15%
Logic: Neutral data, does not change the Fed's original judgment, no new directionSeptember 3 LIT Watch｜After trading heats up, can the token's utility sustain attention?
LIT's trading activity is clearly more active today. OKX's LIT-USDT has traded about 11.33 million USDT in the past 24 hours, with the price rising approximately 11.2% compared to the opening 24 hours ago. When the heat returns, it's better to separately examine the token's utility and the protocol itself.
The official Lighter documentation positions LIT as an ecological infrastructure token. Stakers can obtain some platform rights, for example, for each LIT staked, up to 10 USDC can be deposited into LLP; unstaking has a 3-day lock-up period. The protocol also states that trading fee revenue is used for LIT buybacks, but short-term staking rewards are still supported by company funds and pre-TGE income.
Verifiability at the protocol layer is another main focus: Lighter Core uses zero-knowledge proofs to verify transaction processing and anchors assets and state roots on Ethereum. This reduces reliance on trust in the operator but does not eliminate risks related to contracts, liquidation, liquidity, and token supply. Today's volume increase only indicates heightened attention; value sustainability still depends on real fees, staking demand, and buyback disclosures.
$LIT #LIT
For informational purposes only, not investment advice. September 3 Comprehensive Assessment News Real-Time Update
Market Characterization: Macro shifts from "unilateral rate hike trading" to "data game" — After ADP surprise (38K), the probability of a September rate hike falls to ~45%, but US-Iran conflict + oil price 90–95 + 10Y yield at 19-month high remain suppressive factors. BTC operates within the 75–80K range, with September 4 Nonfarm Payrolls setting the tone for mid-September FOMC.
Strongest On-Chain Theme: Robinhood Chain ecosystem (DEX surpasses 900 million/week revenue 8.26 million) — $ARB revenue rebates and $UNI fee capture are the most valuable branches; the "new market structure" of stock tokens × Meme is worth continuous tracking, but beware of Meme overextension risk.
Institutional Catalysts: RWA/tokenized securities (DTCC services in October, SEC new ETF opinions, Nasdaq standards, HashKey joining DTCC) and stablecoin regulation (Thailand travel rule, GENIUS Act, HKDAP) entering an intensive implementation phase; institutionalization is the most certain long-term narrative for 2026.
Risk List: ① Miners’ marginal sell pressure of 28,000 BTC within the year; ② August security losses of $215 million and price manipulation becoming mainstream attack methods (Injective vulnerability, CHUMP control warning); ③ Prediction market state/federal jurisdiction battle (NJ vs Kalshi) may trigger sector valuation adjustments; ④ $DOGE technical breakdown cooling Meme sector sentiment.
Key Calendar (GMT+8, upcoming days)
9/3 (Thu): Binance delists ICX/SCRT/STORJ (11:00); Fed Governor Waller on inflation; Broadcom Q3 FY26 earnings
9/4 (Fri): US August Nonfarm Payrolls (20:30, last key data before September FOMC); Binance USD1 airdrop ends (08:00 announcement)
9/9: Solana transaction format V1 mainnet activation
9/15: CLARITY Act Senate procedural vote (watch closely)
Mid-September: FOMC rate decision (rate hike or not is the main focus)
Ongoing: US-Iran situation and oil prices, miner sell-offs, Kalshi financing and Supreme Court developments, Robinhood Chain ecosystem data $BTC $UNI 21 banks have tried to issue stablecoins, but most didn't succeed.
It's not a compliance issue, it's a distribution issue. Banks have licenses and reserves, but lack a crypto user base. USDT and USDC account for 84% of card spending share, not because they are the best, but because they are the most widely used.
For ordinary users, when choosing a card, it's not about which stablecoin is "most compliant," but which stablecoin's settlement channel is the most stable and has the most abundant liquidity. Coins with more users have more mature underlying infrastructure, and card issues are resolved faster.Do not click any links! Do not click any links! Do not click any links! Important things are said three times!
Yesterday, someone messaged me privately and invited me to be their community manager, with a minimum salary of 1200 USD.
A community manager is responsible for maintaining the group chat, which seems very easy. They sent me a form, meaning to click this place to apply. My phone couldn't open it at all, so they told me to use a computer.
I clicked it directly, but my computer blocked it. They told me to turn off the antivirus software.
So I had my codex safely handle this link for me, and it can basically be identified as a malicious Trojan, especially targeting cryptocurrency wallets and browser extension data collection. Why would it target people like us in crypto?
After that, I didn't perform any further actions. Whether this link is real or fake, I won't do anything more. Of course, I also believe that it really is someone from an exchange, and I always believe he is a good person, but I don't trust this link.
I asked GPT like Brother Sun, and GPT told me to cut losses in time. The fact proves that Sun's knowledge is trustworthy, and this link also gave me a deep impression.
I also hope everyone can pay attention to this issue, especially creators like us, who are easily tempted by low-cost things. $ BTC is playing dead, the second favorite is getting hit, SOL is as hard as a brick
Before the three major events land, don't fully load your positions, keep some bullets
BTC: 77,000, steady enough to make people yawn
$BTC current price $77,050, 24h -0.25%, intraday range 76,264–77,792, 7 days -2.5%, 30 days still +21.3% — this is just the high-level digestion after the 25% surge in August. The whole problem lies in Hormuz: US-Iran second round of clashes, Brent crude at 95.6, 10-year US Treasury at 4.81%, September rate hike probability once surged to 68%, 90,000 global liquidations in 24h. But Bitfinex calculates the true market average at 76,350, BTC is holding firm, no one is really panicking. The resistance wall is at 81,000–86,000, the lifeline is at 76,300. Three major events queue up: 9/4 Nonfarm Payrolls, 9/11 CPI, 9/15-16 FOMC, sister only trades the range, no dreaming.
Second favorite: fell below 2,400, the worst performer today
$ETH $2,380, 24h -1.26%, 7 days -5.05%, weakest among the three. A whale moved 167,855 coins (about $400 million) to exchanges, dumping 70,000 coins in two days; spot ETF daily inflows halved from 235 million on 8/27 to 87.7 million; Coinbase premium turned negative at -0.014, US funds are withdrawing. Key levels: 2,370–2,380 is a liquidation dense zone, breaking below targets 2,340–2,350; rebound first recovers 2,446, then tests 2,480–2,520. ETH/BTC ratio is still down, don’t expect an independent rally.
SOL: stuck at 99.5 near 100, the toughest kid
$SOL $99.55, 24h only down 0.21%, 7 days -2.48%, 30 days +35.3% — least fallen, strongest monthly line. Why? Spot ETF net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, totaling $1.35 billion, Bitwise alone has $950 million; Double Disinflation proposal passed with 67%, reducing issuance by 18.9 million coins (about $1.47 billion) over the next 6 years, directly cutting supply. 95 is the bottom line, daily close above 100 opens 103, breaking 103 leads to a 110–120 scenario.
OKX Hotspot: Circle officially announces strategic cooperation with OKX, USDC liquidity is comprehensively enhanced across spot / margin / futures — institutions are quietly laying pipelines, those who understand know.
Key levels
BTC: support 76,350 (true market average) / 75,000 / 72,000; resistance 78,000 → 81,000–86,000 (dense trapped zone)
ETH: support 2,370–2,380 (liquidation dense) / 2,340–2,350; resistance 2,446 → 2,480–2,520 → 2,558
SOL: support 100 → 95 → 90; resistance 103 → 105–110 → 120
Macro calendar: 9/4 Nonfarm Payrolls, 9/11 CPI, 9/15-16 FOMC (rate hike priced at 65–68%)
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 I am Cige. ISM and JOLTS were released together, but the market hasn't found a clear direction.
The August ISM Manufacturing PMI recorded 54.6, lower than the previous 55.6 and below the expected 55.2. It is still above the expansion line, but momentum is indeed slowing. July JOLTS job openings were 7.27 million, below the median estimate of 7.31 million, but slightly up from the revised 7.18 million in June. Manufacturing is slowing, the job market is cooling but not collapsing; neither data set gives a one-sided answer.
The market's pricing for a September rate hike continues to rise. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike has reached 66% to 66.9%. ISM and JOLTS are just warm-ups; the real judge will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls. July nonfarm payrolls were down 23,000, with May and June revised down by a total of 103,000. If August data continues to weaken, rate hike expectations may be extinguished. If the rebound exceeds expectations, Walsh's hawkish stance will have data support.
BTC is currently fluctuating around 77,500. ISM is still expanding, JOLTS hasn't collapsed, the job market is cooling but not collapsing; this combination is the most uncomfortable state for rate hike expectations. Don't bet on the data; wait for the nonfarm payrolls to land before making a move. Cige has finished speaking. Think it over carefully. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC $ETH $SOL BTC faced the Rektember test right at the start of September
There's an old joke in the crypto market called Rektember, referring to how September often performs poorly. Today $BTC returned to around $77,000, coinciding with the US-Iran conflict, rising oil prices, high US Treasury yields, and increasing expectations of rate hikes. Everyone started asking: after such a big rise in August, will September see a pullback?
I don't think it should be that mechanical. Seasonality has some reference value but can't replace market dynamics. $BTC rose nearly 25% in August, so a pullback at the start of September isn't surprising. What really matters is the nature of the pullback: if it's a low-volume retracement with buyers stepping in at key levels, that's healthy rotation; if it's a high-volume break of support with weak rebounds, that's trend damage. The $75,000 level is the most important observation line now—until it breaks, don't label every pullback as a crash.
The macro environment today is indeed challenging. Rising oil prices push inflation expectations up, high US Treasury yields increase funding costs, and a stronger dollar suppresses risk assets. For $BTC, these are short-term pressures. Interestingly, these pressures also reinforce its long-term narrative: war, fiscal policy, debt, and monetary credit—topics beloved by Bitcoin supporters. So BTC often shows a contradictory pattern: short-term hit by risk aversion, long-term supported by hedging demand.
From a trading perspective, I divide today into three zones. Above $75,000, bulls haven't lost yet; above $78,000, capital starts to re-attack; above $80,000, market sentiment clearly strengthens. Conversely, if $75,000 breaks and isn't quickly reclaimed, don't stubbornly hold short-term because many August profit-takers will loosen up together.
Another catalyst in the coming days is the US jobs report. Strong employment worries the market about continued Fed hawkishness; weak employment brings back rate cut and liquidity expectations. $BTC is very sensitive to this data because it depends on both liquidity and asset allocation. Before the data, high-level volatility will likely continue, with many false breakouts and breakdowns.
Altcoin performance also helps judgment. If $BTC dips a bit and altcoins crash hard, it shows fragile risk appetite; if BTC holds steady and $ETH, $SOL, $OKB start rotating, it means funds haven't left, just repositioning. Today feels like a transition between these two states—don't be too pessimistic or too excited.
The strongest trading insight isn't shouting "September must fall" or "bull market continues," but clarifying positions. $75,000 is the defense line, $80,000 the attack line, and the middle zone is for waiting, not emotional chasing. Most losses come not from wrong big-picture views but from getting slapped back and forth in a volatile range.
$BTC's current chart looks like an exam: the macro teacher has laid out the tough questions, but the price hasn't handed in a blank paper yet. As long as $75,000 holds, Rektember is just a shakeout story; if $75,000 breaks, then September truly enters valuation killing. Don't write the market's ending prematurely—just watch the lines.
This piece today is meant to remind both those who missed out and those chasing shorts: those who missed out shouldn't rush to buy on every pullback; those chasing shorts shouldn't fantasize about a crash just because it's September. Real opportunities usually appear when market divergence is greatest—the $75,000 to $80,000 range is exactly that zone. Whoever waits for confirmation pays less tuition.
To make it more impactful: September isn't naturally a sell-off month; it just amplifies mistakes. Those without a plan chase highs and lows in the volatility; those with a plan only watch the $75,000 and $80,000 lines. $BTC doesn't need divine predictions now; it needs discipline.
If the chart doesn't break, keep calm; if the line breaks, don't be stubborn.#Anthropic算力采购加码，IPO成本受关注
"Anthropic Hasn't Even Listed Yet, But Already Spent 45 Billion to Become the Data Center Landlord on Wall Street"
Before submitting its own prospectus, it has already handed a Nasdaq ticket to the second-tier computing power landlord.
The large model industry is a capital-intensive money-eating beast; while the unit price for API calls drops daily, data center electricity bills and GPU depreciation are like opening the floodgates. Anyone who doesn't want to be left behind by the next generation of parameters must pay hundreds of billions upfront for hardware racks years in advance.
Anthropic just signed a six-year, 45 billion non-cancellable long-term contract, securing all of Nvidia's next-generation chips in the newly built data center in West Virginia, while the competing new cloud computing power holds 103 billion in backlog orders.
The landlord doesn't touch money-burning algorithms but packages fixed rent into perfect financial statements, and is expected to rush to ring the bell on the US stock market as early as this month.
Prospectors are still struggling to land, but the shovel sellers have long counted their cash. $BTC Economic data shows a mild cooling, but the non-farm payrolls are the real market decider
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August fell to 54.6, below the previous 55.6, but still remains in expansion territory; JOLTS job openings slightly rose to 7.27 million. The combined data reflects that the US economy is gradually cooling down but has not entered a recession or collapse. The current core market focus is on the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
The market probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has climbed to 66%. The non-farm payroll report released at 20:30 on September 4 will be the key to determining the subsequent direction.
If the non-farm data remains strong and employment does not show significant cooling, rate hike expectations will further rise, strengthening the US dollar and Treasury yields. BTC and ETH will face downward pressure, and the US tech sector should also be cautious of a pullback risk.
If the non-farm data weakens significantly, the market will reprice easing expectations, leading to a decline in the US dollar and Treasury yields. BTC and ETH are expected to see a rebound, and the US tech stocks may have repair opportunities.
From the market perspective, in the short term, BTC and ETH are overall oscillating with a bearish bias, and the US stock market is in a high-level consolidation phase, so blindly chasing gains is not advisable. The ISM data is only for reference and should not be the sole basis for bullish or bearish market views.
Strong non-farm data suppresses risk assets, weak non-farm data benefits crypto and stocks; the true market direction will only be clear after the non-farm data is released.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温