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Brothers, the start of September is unfavorable. Bitcoin fell below $77,000, Ethereum lost the $2,400 level, and Solana dropped below $100. In the past 24 hours, the crypto market liquidations reached $370 million, with over 90,000 leveraged traders forcibly liquidated. Oil prices hit $90 per barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.78%—macroeconomic headwinds are suppressing all risk assets. This article will break down three core issues: why the drop happened, who suffered the worst losses, and what to watch next. 📊 Let's look at the data: what happened in the past 24 hours? As of September 3, BTC fell about 2.14% over the past 7 days to $77,336, ETH dropped about 4.57% to $2,392 in the same period. The total crypto market cap retreated to around $2.6 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index rose to 71, but the altcoin season index was only 32, indicating the market rally has not fully spread. Liquidations were concentrated on leveraged longs. Of the total $369.67 million liquidated, long liquidations accounted for $301.84 million, or 81.6%. Over 90,000 leveraged traders were forcibly liquidated that day. By asset, Bitcoin liquidations led with $111.83 million, Ethereum $95.39 million, Solana $27.09 million, and XRP also weakened. 🔥 Primary driver: $90 oil + 4.78% Treasury yield, a double squeeze on risk assets The direct trigger for the market weakness was the simultaneous rise in international oil prices and US Treasury yields. A new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI🔥The night before Nonfarm Payrolls: If BTC can't hold 77,300, look for 75,000.
Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls is the last data set before the FOMC.
ADP has already contradicted expectations: previous value 46,000, forecast 48,000, actual 38,000.
Simply put: employment is cooling down, and rate hike expectations are not completely dead yet.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $240 million right after opening in September.
I think the area around 77,300 shouldn't be considered a solid bottom.
If it breaks down, look for 75,000; only consider buying again if it holds steady.
Are you waiting for Nonfarm Payrolls to act, or reducing positions now?
#LastDataBeforeFOMC: This Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls #TradingVoice $BTC $ETH In the past two days, $ETH has fallen back from above 2500 USD to around 2400 USD. My 20x long position opened at 1902 is still open, and the unrealized profit is already quite high.
But at this point, I am more concerned about whether the funds continue to come in.
I mainly watch two levels:
Above: 2450–2500 USD. If it can stand back above this range and ETF funds turn strong again, it means there is still capital relay after this pullback, and the market still has room to go up.
Below: Around 2350 USD. If this level holds steady, I am more willing to interpret the current situation as a normal consolidation after the rise; but if it breaks down and ETF outflows continue, then a short-term reassessment is needed.
There is something interesting about ETH right now.
On one hand, institutions and enterprises are still continuously holding ETH, and staking data is not weak; on the other hand, the previously continuous inflows into ETFs have recently cooled down, and the price has fallen from the highs.
So I am not rushing to close the position just because the unrealized profit is high.
This position has been held since 1902. For me, what really matters next is not how much more profit can be made on paper, but whether the funds that drove ETH’s rise are still present.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 $UNI quietly making big moves: The king of DEX silently takes over the US stock tokenization market
UNI is currently at 5.76, down 2.7% in 24h, looking rather ordinary. But Uniswap just accomplished something big
Its stock tokens on Robinhood Chain have surpassed $1.5 billion in trading volume over six weeks, capturing 99% of the network's liquidity. On August 29 alone, it hit a new high of over $130 million, with 60% of trades occurring outside regular US stock market hours.
To translate: global users want to trade Nvidia and Apple stocks late at night without brokers, all flocking to Uniswap. This is the achievement after only two months of US stocks being on-chain.
The V4 protocol is also a money printer: annual revenue potential of $120-325 million. The price has broken the trendline from 4.40 at the end of August to 5.76.
The logic is simple: BNB Chain grabbed the issuance side, Uniswap grabbed the trading side. One is the shelf, the other is the cashier, and the cashier earns more steadily.
5.50 is support; holding above $6 opens new space. #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 "How's Maji doing?"
Private messages and comments, everyone is still so concerned about him 😬
▶︎ 7-day loss of 6.161 million USD, 30-day profit of 4.202 million USD
▶︎ Total account cumulative loss of 30.7 million USD
The guy currently still holds long positions of 128 million USD in $BTC and $ETH, among which 39,100 ETH longs have an unrealized loss of 980,000 USD, liquidation price at $2,342.78 (only about $60 of room), 440 BTC longs have an unrealized profit of 175,000 USD
Portal 👉 0x020ca66c30bec2c4fe3861a94e4db4a498a35872#Saudi crude oil exports fall to a 9-year low, oil prices soar
The leader has something to say
Saudi crude oil exports have dropped to a 9-year low, about 3 million barrels per day. Oil prices surged in response, with Brent crude approaching a six-week high.
The Strait of Hormuz is not blocked; the US military escorted 40 merchant ships through, setting a wartime record for throughput. The blockage is in the Red Sea. To avoid Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is using the Red Sea route, which is currently under attack by Houthi forces.
Pressure on the other side comes from Russia and Ukraine. Besent first mentioned Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities, then Iran. These attacks have forced Moscow to extend the diesel export ban until the end of the month.
With both events happening simultaneously, oil prices are likely to rise in the short term and hard to fall. Inflation expectations are heating up, US Treasury yields are rising, and risk assets are under pressure.
Bitcoin is weak; after failing to break 81,000, the highs continue to decline. Holding ZEC short positions and continuing with $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls, what about ZEC?
Tonight, the US Nonfarm Payrolls will be released. The market currently expects an increase of about 50,000 to 60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. (Topone Markets)
My judgment: Nonfarm Payrolls are unlikely to be particularly strong, with a higher possibility of being weak or in line with expectations. However, since the Fed's September rate hike expectations have recently clearly intensified, as long as the data does not significantly exceed expectations, the market may still maintain a hawkish trading stance.
For ZEC, strong Nonfarm Payrolls = bearish, weak Nonfarm Payrolls = rebound risk.
So tonight, the focus is on whether ZEC can hold 800 after the data release; if it rebounds, pay close attention to resistance around 830. Do not bet on the data in advance; wait for the market to give direction.
Finally, one more thing: I have already cleared my empty positions. My position was relatively poor for me, so I left. Those interested can check my live trading.In the past 24 hours, the crypto market continued to be in a state of "macro pressure not lifted, but internal funds have not fully withdrawn." BTC and SOL have slightly recovered to the market, ETH is near flat, and the Fear and Greed Index has returned to 65; Meanwhile, preliminary data for US spot ETFs remains weak, stablecoin growth over the past 7 days is only 0.05%, and the past 24 hours of liquidation have mainly been driven by bulls. So the most noteworthy thing today is not whether prices have rebounded, but rather: market sentiment has already recovered, but real incremental funds have not yet returned in sync. After the macro shock, there has been a recovery, but risk appetite remains fragile. As of 09:54 HKT on September 3, BTC was quoted at $77,373, 24h +0.79%; ETH was at $2,388.33, down 0.09%; SOL at $100.21, +1.41%. According to CoinGecko's public charts, the total crypto market cap is about $2.697 trillion, with only a modest increase of about 0.2% in 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index rebounded from 63 to 65, remaining in the greed range. There is a clear difference between price and sentiment: although BTC and SOL rebounded, overall market cap expansion was very limited, and ETH barely participated in the recovery. Among the top 30 non-stablecoins by market cap, ADA rose 5.86%, while Canton fell 3.51%, showing clear capital divergence. The latest verifiable liquidation snapshot is about $356 million, with long positions accounting for about $276 millionDOGE's "backwardness" is precisely its firewall
DOGE is often mocked for "technological stagnation": no smart contracts, no DeFi, no cross-chain bridges. But it is exactly this "backwardness" that forms its strongest firewall.
Looking back at the history of crypto thefts over the years, money was almost always lost in complex places. The Ronin bridge lost over $600 million due to private key management failures, Wormhole lost over $300 million due to signature verification vulnerabilities, flash loans, reentrancy attacks, and oracle manipulations have been rampant—cross-chain bridges once accounted for two-thirds of DeFi hacking incidents. The logic is simple: the more features added, the more complex the code combinations become, and the larger the attack surface grows.
$DOGE goes against this trend by only doing one thing: transfers. There is no virtual machine to exploit, no contract logic to manipulate, no bridge to smuggle through. The code is directly inherited from Bitcoin and Litecoin, with the protocol layer nearly frozen for years, and every line has been tested by over a decade of real-world operation. The mainnet has never lost a penny due to its own vulnerabilities—the only breaches were of peripheral online wallets, not the chain itself.
What Taleb calls "antifragility" is exactly this structure: it does not rely on sophisticated defenses but simply leaves no entry point for accidents. In an industry that desperately stacks features, DOGE proves that simplicity itself is a scarce security asset. Of course, the community is now discussing upgrade proposals to introduce smart contracts, and if implemented, whether this firewall can remain intact is another matter.$FIL This time there's something going on!
This asset has picked up the old narrative of AI storage again, and it rose 5.5% against the trend!
Reasons for the rise:
On-chain storage of AI training data increased by 40% month-over-month, Filecoin is being revalued as a decentralized data layer; the Onchain Cloud mainnet is running, FVM lock-up has taken away some of the circulating supply, tightening supply in the short term.
Even more intense is the first halving in October, with block rewards cut from 32 to 16, annual inflation dropping from 18% to below 7%, directly changing the selling pressure structure. The market usually speculates on expectations six months in advance, and now is the window.
24h trading volume is $16.8 million, which is 3 times the 30-day average. But FIL still has a 16–18% annual issuance, and the 99.7% retracement from 236 to 0.8 is real, a graveyard for retail investors.
7-day volatility is slightly bullish, 0.78 is support, 0.834 is previous high resistance; if it can hold above 0.8, there is still another wave, but if it breaks 0.78, the narrative falls apart. Use it as a flexible position for AI+storage, not as a value coin to hold dead.#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
Employment data is cooling off, but the market is still betting on a 62.3% chance of a rate hike.
The final piece of the employment puzzle before the FOMC will be revealed on Friday:
▪️ ADP only increased by 38,000, expected 47,000, the slowest since January
▪️ Beige Book: 10 out of 12 districts show only moderate growth
▪️ CME: 62.3% priced in for a 25bp hike in September
The disagreement isn’t about employment, but about the Fed’s anchor. Despite such weak data, rate hikes aren’t being suppressed because this round is anchored on inflation: Core PCE stuck at 3.3%, 54% of 178 subcomponents rose over 3%, up from 47% a year ago. Inflation isn’t sticky, it’s spreading.
BTC is stuck at the 80,000 threshold waiting for this data. If below 50,000, rate hike expectations cool down and BTC breaks 80,000 accordingly; if above 100,000, first see if 75,000 can hold. Volatility is suppressed even below actual levels, and once the data is out, it will rebound doubly.
See you Friday at 20:30 for the verdict. Which side are you on: employment softening means stopping, or inflation not returning to 2% means no easing? $BTC ADP only reported 38,000 jobs, BTC bounced back to 77,000, but ETH still feels uncertain
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm payrolls
Today's rebound is the easiest to fool people into getting overconfident.
ADP announced only 38,000 new private jobs in August, BTC quickly returned to $77,688, $ETH also touched 2400.63, $SOL 100.84, up 1.5% intraday.
It looks like the data softened, and risk assets can finally catch a breath.
But watching ETH this time, I still feel uneasy.
In the past few days, its rebound was always a bit delayed; today it finally touched 2400 again, but that doesn't mean this level is truly secured. With weakening employment, the market can first trade on "policy is not that tight"; but the weaker employment is, the more people will start to think about another issue: is the economy more troublesome than expected.
The market is best at playing this game. It pulls up for a while, then waits for the US session to bring out another logic to hit you.
So I’m not in a hurry to call this rebound a real strengthening. BTC holding above 77,500 and ETH grinding above 2400 means there are truly buyers; if BTC falls back to 77,000 and ETH loses 2400 again, this morning’s move is most likely just short covering.
Honestly, seeing them rally makes everyone itchy to act. But rushing in now isn’t betting on the data, it’s betting you won’t just buy at the very first rebound.
$BTC $ETH
#OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 SEC Chairman publicly supports, saying the Senate vote on September 15 is expected to pass the CLARITY Act smoothly. But prediction markets poured cold water directly, giving only a 14% chance of passage. The expectation gap between the two sides is ridiculously large. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins clearly stated in an interview that this milestone crypto bill is expected to pass and be sent to the President for signing. The SEC will also update supporting rules to adapt to the blockchain industry. Not only the SEC Chairman, but also Coinbase's CEO and Trump have publicly supported the bill, optimistic about its implementation. If the bill really passes, it will clearly define which coins are securities and which are commodities. BTC and ETH will be classified as digital commodities, ETH staking rewards will be legalized, and the CFTC will gain primary jurisdiction over the spot market, which is a regulatory clarity framework the industry has long awaited. The interesting part is here: senior officials are full of confidence verbally, but the trading market completely rejects this. On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing has plummeted from 82% in February to 14% now; another platform, Kalshi, shows only 22%. Why is there such a serious cognitive divide? Two hurdles are stuck in the Senate. The first is the dispute over stablecoin interest. Traditional banks strongly lobby against stablecoins paying interest to users. Banks worry that funds will massively flow out of deposits to crypto stablecoins, making this interest battle hard to compromise. The second is the tug-of-war over the morality clause. Democrats feel the bill regarding officials, Trum🚨 $CORE Collapse Countdown: Is the Hard Fork the Final Straw?
Core DAO’s emergency hard fork, triggered by validator reward issues, looks less like an upgrade and more like a patch for deeper consensus problems.
The bigger concern: excess $CORE won’t be burned, leaving the added supply in circulation.
No strong buying pressure, limited liquidity, and exchange suspensions could make the next supply release painful.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解
"The Fed firmly shuts the door on rate cuts, Besent directly lifts the tight grip on banks releasing hundreds of billions in liquidity"
The Fed has welded high interest rates firmly in place and refuses to loosen, Besent directly led people to break the locks on all US banks' vaults.
For the past decade or so, whether banks were pulling cotton or iron blocks, reserves were strictly locked at the highest standards, forcing financial institutions to have money but not dare to lend, and small and medium banks lost all profits just coping with complicated compliance reports.
The new plan is to completely remove Treasury bonds and cash reserves from leverage indicators, allowing banks to unload tens of thousands of pounds of burden out of thin air, directly releasing hundreds of billions of dollars more lending capacity without spending a penny.
The Treasury is stepping on the gas to urge enterprises to expand production and dilute debt, and the huge liquidity flowing out of the vaults is already accelerating through interest rate spreads into bond market making and high-yield assets.
On one hand, gritting teeth to fight inflation, on the other, fully unleashing liquidity, two trillion-level macro forces are colliding head-on. $BTC Before the nonfarm payrolls were released on Friday, the Bitcoin market had been hovering around 77,000 for several days. At 8:30 PM on Friday night, this data was the final trump card before the FOMC, directly deciding whether the September rate hike would happen. First, let's talk about how divided market expectations are. In August, the nonfarm payrolls are expected to add 55,000 to 58,000 jobs, while July is -23,000, signaling a "violent rebound." The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, unchanged from the previous value. But ADP's "small nonfarm" rate only added 38,000, the lowest since January this year, and the data is already starting to clash. The bigger context is that after Walsh hawked at Jackson Hole last week, the probability of a rate hike in September has jumped from 35% to over 65%. Williams added another nerf, saying "there's no clear answer" and that they know if rates are now enough to bring inflation back to 2%. Weak employment has not led to any loose pricing; inflation is the dominant variable. Three scenarios, three completely different paths. Scenario 1: Nonfarm payrolls are significantly below expectations (below 30,000) → Rate hike probability cools down→ Speck may rebound, even strongly. But July already lost once and has been weak for two consecutive months, so it's not a "trend" but a "structural problem." Scenario 2: Nonfarm payrolls meet expectations (between 50,000 and 80,000) → This is the most delicate situation. The market expects a violent rebound; if the data meets expectations, the probability of rate hikes will not decrease. Washi has already said—inflation is still too high; as long as employment does not collapse, he has reason to keep suppressing inflation. Scenario 3: The market may face pressure from "exhausting all the good news." Scenario 3: Nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations (over 10,000).🚨【ADP Surprise｜Why Are BTC and ETH Diverging?】
The small nonfarm payrolls data is out: August ADP added only 38,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations, indicating the U.S. labor market is cooling down. In theory, this should support rate cut expectations, giving BTC, ETH, and U.S. stocks some breathing room.
However, the market did not immediately take off; instead, a clear divergence appeared.
BTC showed relative resilience, while ETH was more volatile, with a more noticeable rise and fall.
The reason is simple: the market is trading on two sets of logic simultaneously.
On one side, weakening employment leads to easing rate hike expectations; on the other, the U.S.-Iran conflict plus rising oil prices increase inflationary pressure, and U.S. Treasury yields remain high. The 10-year Treasury yield is still around 4.79%, so interest rate pressure has not truly eased.
Therefore, I am now focusing more on one indicator:
Whether the 10-year Treasury yield can continue to decline.
If yields truly fall, the rate cut trade triggered by ADP could further develop, giving BTC and ETH more sustained rebound potential.
Conversely, if employment weakens, oil prices rise, and yields climb again, this rebound might just be a "rate cut optimism realization."
Friday's nonfarm payrolls will be the real test.
Do you think the nonfarm data will continue to surprise on the downside, or will it trigger another market reversal?👇
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 🔥 LIQUIDITY OR MONEY IS DEPRECIATING – IS BTC RISING BECAUSE OF REAL LIQUIDITY, OR IS IT JUST BECAUSE THE MARKET NO LONGER BELIEVES IN THE USD? There is a question I think will determine the direction of Bitcoin in the coming months: BTC is rising because liquidity is returning... or BTC is rising because investors are worried that fiat currencies are depreciating? Both of these stories can cause Bitcoin to rise. But... The consequences are completely different. And if you get it wrong... you can choose the wrong whole strategy. Here's what I'm looking atQueen XXAntiWar admits loss, liquidates $Niulai? 🤨
— Not really, just changed addresses
Since 08.30, these two addresses have cumulatively spent about $1.787 million to build positions in Niulai, with an average price below $0.086 (most were built when the market cap was 86M); in recent days, through multiple transfers, 17.57 million tokens have been moved to 7 addresses, and they are likely still at an unrealized loss.
Therefore, although Fomo shows XXAntiWar has liquidated, in reality, it’s because the new holding addresses were not recorded.
Holding addresses
0xa1e00D2AD3be823C95F938B4BB5d608118925924
0xa1e00D2AD3be823C95F938B4BB5d608118925924
0xCfC1a3653A4b0576A696872Fc48D1E1ECc6EAD3C
0xcbAEb945f4C506486cbEc0B284A5FBB377ca2eeA
0x0C48ACA41268340477fD8bDaA974074d18b5d516
0xfE572cD2665A456Eec85d482c6dB102bf8D5D850
0x9BbB821a51d9c0eF24dd8592E9CAAd7FC469BBF2To get straight to the point: whether there is a rate hike in September or not, $BTC will rise. A rate hike means the bad news is fully priced in, no hike means the good news is realized. Either way, it goes up.
The probability of a rate hike in September is now 66%, up from 35% a week ago. After Wash's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, the market completely flipped. Everyone panicked again, saying "Rate hike is coming, BTC will drop."
Brothers, I've been through three rate hike cycles, and every time it's the same script. Before the hike, the market is terrified; when the hike actually happens, it goes up. Why? Because the expectation is already priced in. What does a 66% probability mean? It means two-thirds of people already believe the hike will happen, those who needed to sell have sold, and those who needed to short have shorted. The day the hike actually happens, the bad news is out, shorts cover, and the price goes up.
What if there is no hike? Even simpler. The 66% probability fails, bulls explode upward, and shorts get crushed beyond recognition.
Look at another piece of data. Beige Book is out, and there are no strong new hawkish signals. This means Wash's tough talk has reached its limit; the actual data doesn't support him being that hawkish. The toughest talk happens when the rate hike expectation is highest, which is when the price is under the most pressure. When the shoe drops on September 16, whether there is a hike or not, it will go up.
Below 77,000 is a golden buying opportunity. Build your position in batches, buy more as it falls. After September 16, see where the price stands.
Don't ask me how I know. On the day of the rate hike, come back and like this post.
#BTC #RateHike #FOMC #Wash #TimeTravelerTrump Endorses AI Copyright, Policy Direction Draws Market Attention
Former U.S. President Trump publicly expressed support for copyright protection of AI-generated content, sparking discussions on the direction of AI copyright policies. However, the news lacks specific details, and the market impact remains to be seen.
The news headline reads "Trump Endorses AI Copyright," but the article does not provide concrete content or background information. AI copyright issues are currently a global regulatory focus. As a potential next presidential candidate, Trump's stance could influence future determinations by the U.S. Copyright Office and legislative bodies regarding the copyright status of AI-generated content. Support for AI copyright could benefit companies owning AI content creation platforms (such as Adobe, Shutterstock) while increasing legal risks related to the use of AI training data, creating uncertainty for model providers like OpenAI and Meta. Due to the absence of specific statements, contexts, and policy details, it is currently impossible to assess the actual strength of this endorsement and the market reaction.Quiet tape — BTC near $77.5K barely green, ETH lagging at -0.7%, SOL leading small at +0.8%. The read isn't the moves, it's the compression: majors coiling in a tight band while the market waits on Friday's US jobs print. Low-volatility drift into a known catalyst tends to resolve sharply, not gently. Here, positioning for the move matters more than guessing its direction.#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
I am Cige, Broadcom and Snowflake have both reported their results.
Broadcom's Q3 revenue and earnings both exceeded market expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue rising to $16.7 billion. Custom AI chips and networking business continue to benefit. However, the Q4 overall revenue guidance is slightly below analyst forecasts, and the stock price fell more than 6% in after-hours trading before narrowing the decline. The market is confirming one logic: AI demand remains, but the expectations for the speed of performance delivery have increased. Broadcom's network chips are the core link for AI data center interconnection; the slightly lower guidance indicates that market expectations have already outpaced the fundamentals.
Snowflake presents a different scenario. Q2 product revenue grew 37% year-over-year, AI-assisted coding tool CoCo's user accounts increased to 9,100, and the company raised its full-year revenue and margin guidance, with the stock price rising more than 21% in after-hours trading. AI demand is spreading from servers and chips to data clouds and software applications. Snowflake has validated that AI-driven data consumption is accelerating, not just compute power procurement.
Dell previously raised its full-year AI server revenue forecast, with demand for compute infrastructure continuing to grow. The AI chain transmission from chips to servers to networks to data clouds is happening, but the pace varies at each link. The direction hasn't changed, but the pace is shifting. Cige has finished speaking; savor this carefully. $BTC $ETH $SOL Since its inception, Trump Coin has never been a conventional crypto asset. It is a meme token created based on political IP, with no business launches, no cash flow, no technological iteration, and its entire value is built on hype narratives and retail investor speculation. This round of rally peaked above $3.6 and fell to a low of $2.2. Many traders mistakenly believe that after a sharp correction, 2.2 is already near the bottom and the market could rebound to $3 or even higher. However, considering the overall crypto environment, regulatory reality, chip structure, manipulative model, and the project's own harvesting attributes, this coin has a real possibility of falling near $1 and is not an alarmist, extreme speculation. First, we must recognize its underlying attributes: Trump Coin is fundamentally designed to have a harvesting attribute. At the initial issuance, Trump's entities controlled the vast majority of token supply. Initial tokens were heavily concentrated in the hands of project teams and early internal investors, while ordinary retail investors mostly bought shares at high prices in the secondary market. The project's official team can directly earn profits from transaction fees. Early on-chain data shows that project-related wallets earned tens of millions of dollars from transaction fees, while many retail wallets ultimately lost money. Unlike ordinary community-driven meme coins, which are typical meme coins initiated spontaneously by private enthusiasts, Trump coins leverage the political influence of public figures to package personal IPs as tokens for commercial monetization, political flowIs a major crash coming?
Today, this question might be more worth discussing than "when will the rebound happen."
$BTC is currently around $77,000, still not reclaiming the $80,000 level. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury market is putting pressure on risk assets: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to about 4.81%, near a nearly three-year high, and market expectations for a September rate hike have clearly intensified.
What’s more troublesome is the oil price.
After the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, Brent crude briefly surged above $94. Rising oil prices mean inflationary pressures are resurfacing, naturally suppressing expectations for rate cuts.
This is also an important backdrop for the recent weak performance of BTC, ETH, and altcoins.
But it’s unnecessary to shout "imminent crash" just yet.
BTC has not shown signs of extreme leveraged liquidations so far; instead, the macro environment remains persistently tight. If BTC later breaks key support levels while Treasury yields continue to rise, it could trigger a chain reaction of "price drop—liquidations—further decline."
So what we really need to guard against next is not a single large bearish candle, but a sudden tightening of market liquidity.
Failing to hold above $80,000, and then losing the $77,000 area again, will significantly increase risks.
If even $75,000 can’t be defended, then discussing a "major crash" might no longer be just scaring ourselves.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 The US-Iran conflict escalates, gold rebounds, but $BTC falls below $76,500. This time, the "digital gold" is once again being questioned by the market.
Today, Bitcoin once dropped more than 2% to around $76,400, $ETH fell over 3%, and $SOL and $XRP dropped even more. The trigger is still the US-Iran conflict: Brent crude oil surged to $95, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly touched 4.81%, and the market has raised the probability of a rate hike in September to about two-thirds.
Interestingly, gold $XAU pulled back above $4,370 from a low during the session. Also touted as inflation-hedging and currency-devaluation-resistant, when faced with war and interest rate shocks, funds still sell BTC as a risk asset first, rather than buying it immediately as a safe haven.
However, BTC hasn’t completely broken down this time. On Monday, the US spot ETF still saw a net inflow of about $217 million, indicating institutional funds have not collectively fled.
I am currently mainly watching the $75,000 support and $80,000 resistance. If Friday’s nonfarm payrolls continue to push up rate hike expectations, $75,000 may be tested again; if yields fall back, BTC could retake $80,000, making this adjustment more like a deleveraging.
Who is really more of a safe haven, gold or BTC? The market is taking a live test these days.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 For Dogecoin to return to its peak, the key is not how many tweets Elon Musk posts, but whether he can convert his personal influence into real-world use cases. The era driven by sentiment is over; the market now values whether a cryptocurrency can truly be used.
Elon Musk's strongest card is payment implementation. If he can officially integrate Dogecoin into the payment system on the X platform, allowing hundreds of millions of users to naturally use it for tipping, transfers, and shopping, Dogecoin will have a stable demand base rather than just being a speculative chip in investors' hands. Tesla and SpaceX product payments can also further expand support, extending from merchandise to more services, forming a consumption closed loop.
Secondly, investment in the technical foundation is needed. $DOGE's development has long relied on volunteers, and there is room for improvement in transaction speed, fees, and security. Musk could fund the formation of a core development team to drive network upgrades, enabling it to truly surpass traditional transfer methods in payment efficiency.
Furthermore, he needs to restrain personal statements that disturb the coin's price. In the past, every time he spoke, it triggered intense market fluctuations. While this brought attention, it also deterred institutions and merchants. A predictable, mildly volatile environment is conducive to the long-term construction of payment scenarios.
The last often overlooked point: compliance. Proactively cooperating with regulatory frameworks, so merchants dare to accept it and platforms dare to list it, is the premise for going far.
Ultimately, what Musk can do is not to recreate a wave of hype but to turn Dogecoin from a topic into a tool. The hype will fade, but the tool will remain.1. Today's Market Background: A Turbulent Season. Guys, today's market is quite interesting. Let's start with the big picture—geopolitical + macroeconomic double blow. The US and Iran have started their operations in the Strait of Hormuz: two oil tankers hit landmines and exploded, the US military completed a new round of strikes against Iran, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard deployed missile drones to US bases. International oil prices once broke through $96 per barrel. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.78%-4.79%, and the market priced in a 66% probability of a Fed rate hike on September 16. Risk assets collectively flopped—90,000 people were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations about $370 million, with long positions accounting for $300 million. Market data: BTC at $77,336, down 2.14% over 7 days; ETH at $2,392, down 4.57% over 7 days; Total market capitalization is about $2.7 trillion, with BTC's market share rising to 59.57%. --- 2. Market Analysis: Key Levels in the Long-Bear Contest Bear Logic: Oil prices surge = rising inflation expectations = Fed reluctance to loosen = risk assets under pressure. BTC has been pushed back from above $80,000 back to the 76,000-77,000 range, with short-term trend momentum clearly weakening. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $236 million. September has historically been BTC's "cursed month"—8 out of 13 closed lower since 2013. Bullish logic: Long-term holders returned to net buying after about a month. Spot ETFs for ETH, SOL, and XRP have actually seen net inflows. BTC is currently still between 63,000 and 86$BTC has always pulled back each time before, so be cautious this time.
First, let's explain what this chart is. The Mean Reversion Index averages nine fair value anchors together, including the 200-week moving average, Realized Price, Power Law, several on-chain VWAPs, and then places the current price into the historical distribution to tell you which percentile it is in.
In plain language, it shows how much more expensive this position is compared to historical levels.
In June, it was 15.8, deep green, meaning less than one-sixth of the time in history was it cheaper than that. Now it's 38.1, having climbed out of the green zone into the lower edge of the yellow zone.
In two months, it moved from deeply undervalued to slightly undervalued. The price hasn't gone crazy, but the cheapness has indeed been eaten up by more than half.
Here's the key point: looking back at the line below, in 2015, 2019, and 2023, every time it climbed out of the green zone, it would return once more to the green zone before truly trending.
This time, our speed of leaving the green zone is among the fastest, with basically no pullback in between. The gray area above is also surging; the price is running ahead of its own valuation system.
A 38th percentile is not expensive; this is not a signal to sell. But it is no longer a position where buying blindly is always right; the cheapness of the green zone is gone.
The 200WMA catch-up plan remains in place. If I get one chance to pull back to the green zone, that would be the most comfortable entry point for this cycle.
In the past, it always gave that chance; whether it will this time, I don't know.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Taking a look at OKX's September financial calendar, what really makes me cautious isn't any single data point, but several variables starting to cluster together.
September 4th is the US non-farm payrolls, September 16th is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with the Apple event and CLARITY Act vote in between, and at the end of the month there's Korea Blockchain Week and the UK FCA's crypto regulatory progress.
Many people treat these as a bunch of "bullish/bearish" factors.
I think it's not that simple.
The biggest trading logic in September actually boils down to two things:
First, whether employment can continue to cool down.
Second, whether the Federal Reserve has enough reason to change its policy pace.
If employment weakens and inflation continues to fall, the market will be trading liquidity expectations, and BTC is more likely to follow a trend.
But if employment remains resilient and inflation refuses to come down, then trouble arises—the market will reprice "longer-lasting high interest rates."
At that point, so-called crypto positives might not be enough to offset macro pressure.
So I won't be guessing BTC's ups and downs every day in September.
I prefer to wait for the data to reveal the direction itself.
The real big moves often don't start the moment the news breaks, but only after the market realizes its expectations were wrong.
What will everyone be watching most in September: non-farm payrolls, FOMC, or the CLARITY Act?
$BTC $ETH $SOL The biggest variable affecting Bitcoin's price trend this week is Friday's non-farm payroll data.
Currently, the market's mainstream expectation for August's non-farm payroll additions is between 55,000 and 80,000. This number itself is not strong, and cooling signals can be seen from two key leading indicators:
ADP "small non-farm" is significantly below expectations: August ADP new jobs were only 38,000, far below the expected 47,000, marking the lowest since January this year. This casts a shadow over the non-farm data. July data was significantly revised downward: July non-farm payrolls were reduced by 23,000, plus a combined downward revision of 103,000 for May and June, indicating that the labor market weakness may be more severe than observed. If the non-farm data falls between 55,000 and 80,000, it basically meets the expectation of a "moderate cooling," and the Federal Reserve may view it as a signal of an orderly slowdown in the labor market, unlikely to significantly change the 58% probability of a rate hike in September.【Crypto Script】
#财报观察员: Broadcom's performance exceeds expectations, Snowflake raises guidance
I'm Script Bro. Dell's earnings report this time basically tells the market that the AI feast isn't over yet. Now it's shifting from Nvidia eating alone to a group at the table.
In the past, when hyping AI, everyone only saw Nvidia; GPUs were the "money printing machines." But having GPUs alone isn't enough—servers, storage, networks, and data centers all need to keep up, or else buying a bunch of chips just ends up gathering dust in warehouses.
Dell's performance exceeding expectations shows that enterprises are still pouring money into AI infrastructure. The market is no longer just about whether "AI is strong or not," but about who can truly make money from AI. After all, no matter how good the story sounds, in the end, it depends on whether the wallet can get fatter.
On the US stock side, the AI industry chain continues to be strong, supporting the Nasdaq and tech stocks. As long as funds are still willing to chase growth assets, market risk appetite won't be too bad.
The same logic applies to the crypto space. Strong US tech stocks indicate that funds are still willing to take risks, so risk assets like BTC can easily benefit from positive sentiment. But don't forget, the real big boss for BTC is still the Federal Reserve and US dollar liquidity. AI can only ignite the fire, not burn the entire bull market. If US stocks continue to be strong, funds may have the opportunity to continue spreading to assets like BTC.
Brothers, do you think the next wave of funds will keep revolving around AI, or is it time for BTC to perform? Let's chat in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SOL Looking back at OKX's 2023 announcement about $CORE: "$CORE is now listed on OKX, deposits are open, and spot trading will begin once liquidity requirements are met." Interestingly, when this is viewed alongside two earlier official CoreDAO messages: in 2022, CoreDAO emphasized a hard supply cap of 2.1 billion tokens plus a transaction burn mechanism; in 2023, CoreDAO highlighted becoming an early $CORE staker; and also in 2023, $CORE started entering mainstream trading infrastructure like OKX.
This actually corresponds to a very clear development path: supply rules → network participation → market liquidity.
But looking back today, what truly deserves study is no longer "which exchange listed it back then," but whether these early designs have ultimately crystallized into long-term value. Because: exchanges solve liquidity; staking solves network participation and security; hard supply solves monetary policy. And what ultimately determines $CORE's long-term value is whether Core can continuously create real on-chain demand and truly connect BTC, BTCfi, users, capital, and infrastructure.
From 2022 to 2023, and now to today, time has given Core a sufficiently long validation period. The real test has never been about having a story, but about what infrastructure remains once the story fades.The overall crypto asset market is under pressure, primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy expectations, with risk asset valuations continuously suppressed by macroeconomic factors.
1. Hawkish tone at Jackson Hole breaks rate cut expectations
At the Jackson Hole symposium, Waller firmly upheld the 2% inflation target, rejected easing commitments, and stated that until inflation shows a definite decline, further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. This directly reversed previous market easing expectations. U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the dollar index rebounds, and high-volatility risk asset valuations are under pressure, with ETH and BTC entering a high-level correction phase.
The Fed's policy has shifted to "data-dependent," abandoning fixed forward guidance. Every upcoming CPI, PCE, and non-farm payroll report will amplify market volatility, increasing the frequency of market fluctuations and uncertainty.
2. Persistent inflation stickiness makes the September rate meeting a key risk point
Earlier PCE data exceeded market expectations, with inflation retreating less than anticipated.
The market is beginning to reprice the likelihood of a rate hike in September, and the prolonged high interest rate environment continues to suppress high-valuation risk assets like ETH. As long as inflation does not show a clear downward trend, a liquidity easing market is unlikely to return in the short term.
3. Sustained pressure from U.S. Treasuries and the dollar
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated, representing high risk-free returns, causing capital to flow out of crypto markets and high-risk tech assets into Treasury safe havens.
During the ongoing dollar rebound cycle, crypto assets priced in dollars naturally face downward valuation pressure. In a strengthening dollar phase, ETH is unlikely to experience an independent, sustained major rally. ⚠️Personal market review, for communication only, does not constitute any investment advice
Recently, gold has experienced a typical rollercoaster of a sharp rise followed by a steep fall and an oversold recovery.
In late August, after gold prices surged and faced resistance, influenced by the Fed's hawkish stance and rising US Treasury yields, bulls collectively took profits, leading to a rapid and deep pullback in gold prices. After the market sentiment was fully digested, combined with a weakening dollar and bottom-fishing capital entering, gold has now entered a technical rebound and recovery phase, overall maintaining a wide-range high-level oscillation pattern.
Short-term core logic: Data determines direction, oscillation is the main theme
The biggest uncertainty in the current market is all focused on this week's non-farm payroll data.
- If employment data is strong and wages warm up, the high interest rate expectation will heat up again, and the gold rebound will most likely end, returning to a pressured retracement mode with support levels to be repeatedly tested.
- If employment data cools down, rate hike expectations fall, and US Treasury yields decline, gold prices will continue to rebound, further repairing previous losses.
All short-term rebounds are defined as oversold recoveries, not the start of a new unilateral bull market. There is obvious divergence at high levels, heavy resistance above, with repeated shakeouts and range fluctuations being the main theme in early September. Avoid blindly chasing highs.
Medium to long-term core logic: Solid bottom support, the major trend has not reversed
Short-term interest rate expectation disturbances will only change gold's rhythm, not the medium to long-term upward logic…The day before yesterday I gave up, yesterday I doubled back to take it all back
9.2 $BTC Bitcoin/$ETH Ethereum battle summary:
Day before yesterday's profit gave back: -8,368U
Yesterday's secured profit: +27,729U
Yesterday morning, one trade recovered all losses.
Account returned to positive growth.
It's not mysticism, it's probability.
There is no myth in trading.
Don't panic when losing, don't get carried away when winning.
Yesterday's high short and low long trades, each one was an upward curve in the "small win, big win" structure.
The market is indeed exhausting, waves of oscillation and shakeouts one after another.
But as long as the volatility is within a controllable range, you can use high-frequency fine-tuning + precise sniping to snatch profits back bite by bite.
There is no holy grail in trading, only a continuously iterated system.
When losing money, the system is being tested.
When making money, the system is awarding scholarships.
Kunren, steady trading
Not about never losing, but about being able to afford losses, recover profits, and sleep well
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $FIL 0.7675 long position, 50x leverage, floating profit of 280 points, still holding.
The logic behind this rally is very strong: FIL has risen nearly 20% this week, shorts have been liquidated for 1.5 million USDT, and open interest has surged to around 200 million. Narratively, Filecoin is packaging itself as AI infrastructure—Amazon plans to invest 220 billion USD this year in AI hardware, storage chip prices have increased 235% in a year, and Filecoin says, "My storage has long been built, no need to wait."
Technically, it has already risen above the 100-day moving average, daily chart is bullish, 0.86 is the next key resistance. Breaking through could target 0.90-1.00, failure to hold might lead to a retest of 0.76-0.77.
But there is a risk: RSI has surged above 80 into overbought territory, some traders are already locking in profits and exiting. Open interest has halved from the 450 million peak, indicating less aggressive chasing of highs.
My judgment: the direction is correct, short-term overbought may cause a shakeout. Move stop loss up to around 0.76 to lock in profits, and see if it can push to 0.86.
"Position Review"CZ tweeted: Hot money is withdrawing from the AI sector and flowing back into cryptocurrency. This judgment aligns with the capital flow of ETH—ETH ETF saw a net inflow of $17.91 million today, attracting $520 million over 7 days, with no sign of stopping.
But on the BTC side, Tony still tells the truth: today the ETF had a single-day net outflow of -$241 million, the first negative transfer in several days. This means $BTC spot demand is now "absolutely scarce"; without spot demand, the bull market cannot continue. (Figures 1, 2)
#BTC high-level pullback, gold linkage under test
$ETH is completely not following this script.
Since this rebound broke through the $2256 cumulative address realized price, the price has not fallen back, which will be a strong support. (Figure 3)
Additionally, with the CLARITY Act expected to pass the Senate on September 15, once regulatory clarity is established, the direction of capital flow is already written in the ETF flows.
👉 BTC lacks spot, ETH attracts capital, the E/B exchange rate continues to rise. How do you see this divergence? Are you still betting on BTC or switching to ETH?
#FOMC last data set before Friday's nonfarm payrolls
#霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 $ZEC has surged too fiercely this round; the real test is just beginning.
Zcash has been strengthening recently, once reaching around $860 in late August, hitting a multi-year high. Today, ZEC remains above $800, with the latest price around $806 and a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $500 million.
This rally itself is already very strong. The privacy sector is heating up again, coupled with capital expectations brought by spot ETFs, making ZEC a very eye-catching token in the recent altcoin market.
At the same time, U.S. employment data is starting to cool down.
In August, ADP private sector employment increased by only 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000 and also below the revised 46,000 in July. The real non-farm payroll data will be released on Friday.
What does this mean for ZEC?
If Friday's non-farm payrolls continue to fall short of expectations, the market will bet again on a Federal Reserve rate cut, causing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to decline, potentially further improving the funding environment for high-volatility assets.
For ZEC, which has already shown an independent trend, the elasticity might be greater than that of ordinary altcoins.
But caution is needed here.
ZEC has recently surged from below $500 to above $800, an extremely exaggerated increase, with many short-term profit takers as well. Whether it can hold around $800 now is more important than chasing further gains.
If the non-farm data cooperates and ZEC can firmly stand in the $830–$850 range again, the next step will be to watch for a breakthrough of the previous high. #FOMC前最后一组数据: This Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls Non-farm payrolls themselves will not directly change Ethereum's fundamentals; the core is to alter market expectations of Fed interest rates. The dollar and Treasury yields fluctuate accordingly, driving capital in and out of risk assets. Ethereum's elasticity is greater than Bitcoin's, often with more dramatic price swings. 1. Non-farm payrolls far exceed expectations (booming jobs) The market feels that high interest rates will continue to be held, and rate cuts will be delayed. A stronger dollar is selling risk assets, and Ethereum is under pressure to fall. Currently, the support level between 2350-2420 is easily broken, and short-term declines often exceed Bitcoin's decline, leading to more contract insertion liquidations. 2. Non-farm payrolls are clearly below expectations (weakening employment). The market is betting on an early Fed rate cut, liquidity easing expectations are heating up, and funds are willing to rush into risk assets. Ethereum's rebound is more explosive, and under the same conditions, it will rise even more aggressively than Bitcoin. 3. Nonfarm payrolls are about the same as expectations—lukewarm. They won't change the overall direction. The market is likely to continue oscillating, with further grinding and stop-loss sweeps, continuing the current tug-of-war. 4. Nonfarm payrolls are extremely poor, causing recession panic. This is a special situation. Even if rate cut expectations rise, the market panics and sells off all risk assets together. Ethereum's $ETH still plunges, and rate cut expectations can't save the short-term market. 5. Common scams at nonfarm payrolls: When data first comes out, it often fakes first—a rally followed by a reversal, or a crash and a pullback. Ethereum is highly volatile, with prices fluctuating by several hundred dollars within minutes, with both bulls and bears being wiped outUS East 9-2 Fund Details (Unit: Million USD)
BTC Spot ETF
IBIT (BlackRock) -201.2
FBTC (Fidelity) -43.7
BITB (Bitwise) +8.4
Other targets showed slight fluctuations
BTC Total: -236.5
ETH Spot ETF
ETHA (BlackRock) +11.2
FETH (Fidelity) +4.8
ETHE (Grayscale) -5.0
ETH Total: +10.95
Market Interpretation
On 9-2, BTC ETF saw a significant reversal, shifting from continuous inflows to large net outflows, marking the largest single-day redemption since late July. Almost all outflows came from BlackRock's IBIT, representing concentrated selling by a leading institution, while other funds diverged, indicating no market-wide panic. ETH showed strong resilience, achieving 12 consecutive trading days of net inflows, with funds rotating from BTC to ETH and SOL.
The timing coincides exactly with the outbreak of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. Upon the news, institutions took preemptive risk-averse actions, with ETF funds and market prices weakening in sync. The previous divergence of "fund inflows with price decline" disappeared, signaling resonance. #FOMC last data set before Friday's nonfarm #BTC high-level pullback, gold linkage under test #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验
The S&P 500 and MSCI are now facing a dilemma: Is a company like MicroStrategy considered a normal company?
If you say it’s a tech company, 77% of its assets are Bitcoin, and the software business revenue is negligible compared to Bitcoin. If you say it’s a fund, it’s listed on Nasdaq, has employees, business operations, and financial reports.
MicroStrategy currently holds over 840,000 BTC, valued at $23.9 billion. Market cap, liquidity, and profitability all meet the hard criteria, yet the S&P 500 repeatedly excludes it. MSCI is even stricter, redefining the boundary between "operating companies" and "investment vehicles," kicking out those with less than 50% operating assets.
If it really gets kicked out, the consequences are severe, with passive fund outflows possibly reaching $2.8 billion to $11.6 billion. Japanese Bitcoin treasury companies like Metaplanet are also on the review list.
Simply put, traditional financial rules can’t keep up with the pace of crypto innovation. It was unimaginable before for a listed company to treat Bitcoin as a primary asset, but MicroStrategy has done it, while index rules have yet to catch up.
Next, it depends on MSCI’s decision, which could determine the direction of the entire crypto treasury sector. $BTC The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds touched 3.01% on September 1st — the sharpest move since September 1996. The global chessboard seemed to have only toppled a single pawn, but the tremor traced by $xIWM on the K-line revealed this was the starting point of a "king's wing full assault."
I have spent my life calculating piece movements on the board, never startled by the loss of a single pawn. But when Japan's 30-year government bond yield broke 4.18%, approaching historic highs, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded simultaneously, and the long ends of UK and German bonds clustered at multi-year highs, my intuition told me: this is not just a city’s alarm, but the frontal engagement of the central pawn formation on the entire board. Long-term bond yields worldwide rising almost simultaneously means all players are re-confirming the "inflation—deficit—supply" central line from the same opening book. So-called risk assets and safe-haven assets in this scenario are merely pieces swept away by the same midgame flood.
In this game, the real hidden line is the yen arbitrageurs. For decades, low-yield yen has been the smoothest rear-wing pawn in the international chess game. Institutions borrow cheap yen and deploy it to every corner of the world to buy stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin. Now that Japan’s 10-year yield has risen above 3%, this rear-wing pawn has undergone a complete identity reversal — it no longer supports your offense but instead stands behind you demanding the entire pawn line to retreat immediately. This is why the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, gold, Bitcoin, and stocks all tremble in sync: it’s not that each has malfunctioned individually, but that all positions relying on yen financing are being forced to decompress. And $xIWM is simply the square on this retreat line that most truthfully reflects the tension of the pieces.
If you only focus on the changes in one square of the board, you will never understand the game. $xIWM is a keenly perceptive observation post, but the real signal source is not in the K-line itself, but in the interest rate curve of the Tokyo market thousands of kilometers away. Every casual word from the Bank of Japan is like a player lightly tapping the clock after deep thought; once rate hike expectations heat up, it means the player is pushing the central pawn further forward, placing global risk assets under the crosshairs of a double strike. Those overvalued growth stocks, funds passively buying gold, and wavering Bitcoin holdings will become the pieces forced to be exchanged or abandoned after that central pawn advance. You cannot escape because the coordinates of the entire board have been rearranged.
The coldest moment in chess is not when the opponent checks the king, but when you suddenly realize all your pieces are protecting the king, yet none can truly attack. The repricing of Japan’s long-term bond yields is that cold bell. When the 3.01% figure is fixed, global capital has no choice but to withdraw from old battles and return to new defensive lines. So-called safe havens never exist in isolation; so-called independent markets are just those who have yet to realize they also sit at the center of the board. Japan’s 3.01% is not a random loophole; it is a sequence long calculated in the chess manual. Players who have not yet grasped the significance of this move have already been marked in the game plan as paying the price of exchange. #jgb10ytops3%Friday night at 8:30, $BTC is waiting for the non-farm payrolls to save it, but hopefully it won't get blindsided!
Sigh, I bought Bitcoin, but in the end, I still have to study whether Americans have found jobs.
#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: this Friday's non-farm payrolls
At 8:30 PM Beijing time on Friday, September 4th, the August non-farm payrolls will be released. In the last report, July employment decreased by 23,000, and the May and June data were revised down by a total of 103,000. So even if the new numbers look good this time, we have to check if the previous values have continued to shrink.
Honestly, there's a rather awkward expectation in the crypto world right now: hoping US employment is a bit weak so the Fed has less reason to raise rates, but not so bad that it looks terrible.
If it's a little weak, the market might breathe a sigh of relief; but if employment clearly worsens and the unemployment rate jumps, funds might sell crypto to avoid risk. Then rushing in shouting "good data" might not actually catch a rally.
I tend to think a mild cooling off and wages no longer accelerating is the combination that feels better for BTC. Celebrating just because new jobs are below expectations can easily overlook wages. If wages are still accelerating, the inflation pressure won't ease. The curtain wall glass hasn't been fully installed yet, but the tower crane lights are already flickering at the stock market close—AVGO is down, SNOW is flashing up. This isn't a shift in market direction; it's clearly different construction phases of the same blueprint reaching their respective structural inspection days.
Last night I was watching these two cases like monitoring the general contractor's progress chart for a super high-rise building I’m managing. Dell raised its full-year AI server forecast, which basically means the survey report got thicker, and the volume of foundation pit support and pile foundation work has been clearly revised upward. This indicates the underground part hasn't reached the closing stage yet, and the subsequent concrete demand is far from finished. Broadcom’s quarterly report shows $16.7 billion in AI chip revenue, equivalent to the actual steel content in load-bearing walls exceeding design values, but the Q4 guidance is slightly lower—anyone who's done construction knows that doesn't mean the building is collapsing; it means the formwork crew is waiting for the next batch of embedded beam components to arrive, causing a three-day misalignment in the node schedule. The market dropped six points in seconds, like a supervisor spotting a non-load-bearing crack on the edge of a column and panicking first.
What really made the chief engineer take off his hard hat was Snowflake: Q2 product revenue rose 37%, and CoCo accounts climbed to 9,100. In construction terms, this is like the building automation system for the entire building—it’s no longer just selling glass curtain walls and elevators, but modularizing every floor’s HVAC, power, fire protection, and security systems, then telling you the full-year guidance and profit line are still being raised. This is what we often call “the entire building’s intelligent joint debugging completed ahead of schedule, and the model floor lease filing approved.” AI demand is spreading from chips and networks to data clouds and software; in my terminology, the solution is spreading from the structural system to the MEP systems and refined delivery. Structural engineers are naturally happy, but what really makes the owner happily pay the final installment is that intelligent system that can make the whole building operate automatically.
But the market didn’t applaud for long this time. It was too impatient, like the client seeing the topping-out photo and immediately demanding to change the refined delivery date—faster execution, faster results, just like that classic nonsense at the design handover meeting: "Why didn’t your drawings clearly specify the heating and cooling source switch for the transition season?" Of course, the drawings did specify it, just not at the speed he flipped through them.
From my 20 years of industry insight, the current pricing on the XIREN line is basically welding the "expected topping date" and "actual pouring progress" onto one K-line chart. AVGODips isn’t a structural regression; it’s a short-term misreading caused by the scheduling adjustments of the ventilation shaft, elevator shaft, and core tube; SNOWPops is just the exterior decorative lighting being turned on early, which is visually striking but doesn’t represent structural load or inter-story drift angles.
If I had to say one deeper thing: the market always loves to stand downstairs and see whose lights come on first—but those of us who read blueprints know that the first lights on are often temporary iodine-tungsten lamps pulled by the construction team. #AVGODipsSNOWPops AI stocks have been dropping sharply these past few days, and the Nasdaq and S&P have also gone down. I wonder, what does the US-Iran war have to do with the $SKHY I hold? Just review it and you'll understand: US-Iran conflict escalates→ oil prices rise, → market fears inflation, → the market starts betting on a possible Fed rate hike → US Treasury prices fall, yields rise→ tech stock valuations are pressured→ Nasdaq and S&P drop. The US-Iran war affects oil prices, but the most troublesome part of rising oil prices is that they spread throughout the economy. Transportation needs oil, production needs oil, chemicals also need oil. When oil prices rise and the price is spread to consumers, prices go up; high prices lead to inflation. Once inflation hits, the Fed comes out. What is this guy doing? This guy is just about controlling inflation. If he notices inflation, he'll do something special like a 'grandson'—raise rates—not for ordinary people's deposits, but for loans, so companies can borrow less and spend less. When people stop spending, prices go down, and inflation can be controlled. Now everyone is guessing: if rates really go up, then after the hike, new government bonds might pay higher interest. Now, no one wants to keep these old low-interest bonds—they're all being sold. This causes US Treasury prices to fall. If prices fall but interest rates stay, = yields go up. So why did stocks fall before the Fed raises rates? This is actually easy to understand—stocks never wait until news is released. Suppose a month ago, people thought the probability of a Fed rate hike in September was only 20%. Suddenly,BTC ETF flipped from +217 million to -35.3 million in one day, but I first look at whether the price has dropped
I checked the latest capital flow: on 8/31, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about 217 million USD, but on 9/1 it turned into a net outflow of about 35.3 million. The problem is, BTC didn’t crash directly because of this and is still hovering around 77,000.
This is more worth studying than just looking at the ETF alone: if institutional buying is fluctuating but the price can still hold, it means there might be other spot demand in the market absorbing it; conversely, if the ETF turns positive again but BTC still can’t break above 80,000, it’s more like the selling pressure above hasn’t been fully digested.
Also, US Treasury yields remain high, and the macro environment hasn’t truly eased.
My trading direction is very short-term: if it holds around 76,500, I won’t chase shorts; if it stabilizes above 79,500, I’ll increase long exposure; if it breaks below 75,000, I’ll keep waiting.
If the ETF outflows again but BTC just won’t drop, would you see it as truly strong, or just delayed selling pressure?On September 3rd, according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 37.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 62.3%.
So what does a rate hike really mean for $SNDK?
I believe the short-term outlook is definitely bearish. The reason is simple: a rate hike means an increase in the risk-free rate, and high-valuation tech stocks will be the first to face valuation compression.
SanDisk has already risen significantly this year, and the market's expectations for AI storage are very high. Once capital starts to seek safety, highly volatile stocks like SNDK are very likely to be hit first.
But!
SanDisk's fundamentals are indeed very strong now. The company's latest financial report shows that revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 reached $8.97 billion, a year-over-year increase of 372%, with the data center business growing 437% year-over-year.
So I tend to think: the rate hike hits valuations, but not necessarily the fundamentals.
If September's hike is only 25 basis points and the market has already priced it in, then after the bearish news settles, there might even be a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" effect.
However, if the rate hike is accompanied by a continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields, then be mentally prepared for SNDK to pull back to around $1500 or even $1400 in the short term.
So looking at SanDisk now, be cautious of short-term pullbacks, but the mid-to-long-term outlook still depends on AI + storage demand!
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 Today, Arthur Hayes published an article.
He said ETH will reach $10,000 by the end of the year, ENA will hit $0.5, and ETHFI will reach $2.
Many people's first reaction to such calls is — "Here we go again, the big mouth is bragging."
But this time it's different.
Because before he said these things, what he wrote months ago is being validated by the market one by one.
Do you remember what Hayes said a few months ago?
He said: France is the weakest link in the Eurozone. With high fiscal deficits, increasing government debt, and heavy reliance on foreign capital — the French banking and government bond markets will face sustained pressure from capital outflows.
How many people ignored this back then?
And today?
According to the latest data from the pan-European exchange, as of September 2, the yield on French 10-year government bonds has reached 4.17%, approaching the peak in November 2008.
On September 1, it even briefly touched 4.21%, higher than Greece's 4.04%.
A G7 country's borrowing cost is more expensive than the main player in the Eurozone debt crisis.
France's public debt to GDP ratio is expected to reach 118.5% in 2026 and exceed 120% in 2027. The three major French bank stocks plunged more than 4% in a single day at the end of August.
Everything Hayes said is happening.
Now look at the second judgment.
Hayes' logic chain at the time was:
EURJPY falls → Yen strengthens → Asian funds withdraw from European assets → French banks reduce Repo financing → US Treasury financing costs rise → Hedge funds deleverage → New York Fed forced to expand RMP operations → Fed balance sheet expands → Crypto market takes off.
Many thought the chain was too long, "How could every step work out?"
And now?
EURJPY is currently trading around 185.50. French bank stocks have already started to plunge.
The most critical part — the US Treasury has already taken action.
On August 19, the US Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its long-term Treasury buyback operations, increasing from $2 billion each time to at least $4 billion, effective September 9.
The market directly interpreted this as "mini quantitative easing."
Hayes said the "liquidity valve is being turned on," and it is indeed being turned.
Then the third — and the harshest — judgment.
Hayes said: The Fed's balance sheet expansion speed may accelerate to nearly $10 billion per month.
Many see this number and think, "Only $1 billion, what's the big deal?"
But you need to know the background.
The Fed's RMP (Reserve Management Purchase) plan from December 2025 to March 2026 has a monthly scale of $40 billion; in April it drops to $25 billion; from May to July it drops to $10 billion; and in August it was directly paused to zero.
From $40 billion to zero, this is a cliff-like tightening.
What Hayes predicts is — from zero back up to $10 billion per month.
This is not about incremental change, it's a complete reversal in direction.
Wall Street sees it the same way. TD Securities expects a possible recovery to about $10 billion per month for the remainder of 2026.
The direction is set — liquidity is shifting from "tightening" to "easing."
So what is Hayes himself doing?
All talk and no action is just hot air. But Hayes is not like that.
On August 25, he publicly announced: Maelstrom Fund's risk exposure has reached its limit, with core holdings in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ethena (ENA), and Ether.fi (ETHFI).
Today he reiterated: Bitcoin is the structural long ballast, and the speculative short-term bets by the end of 2026 are — ETH target price $10,000, ENA target price $0.5, ETHFI target price $2.
Then he added — "Where did my ZEC go?"
A joke, but the signal is clear: he has liquidated ZEC and is fully betting on the ETH ecosystem.
By the way, he liquidated ZEC because of the Orchard pool vulnerability in June — when the underlying logic of the narrative is broken, he runs faster than anyone.
This man is not a die-hard bull. He is logic-driven. When logic changes, positions change. When logic holds, he bets all in.
Of course, Hayes is not a god.
He called Bitcoin at $250,000 in 2025, which didn’t happen. He himself admits "most price predictions are inaccurate."
He once lost about $2.04 million on ETH. No one is 100% right.
But the issue is not whether he is "right or wrong."
The issue is — his macro analysis framework is being validated step by step by the market.
French government bond yield at 4.17% — validated.
EURJPY hovering around 185 — validated.
US Treasury expanding buybacks — validated.
Fed may restart balance sheet expansion — Wall Street expects the same.
When an analyst's three or four key judgments are consecutively proven right by the market, and his target price still has 3x upside —
you don't have to follow blindly. But you should at least take a serious look.
What are 99% of KOLs in the market doing?
They cheer when prices rise, scream crash when prices fall.
Today they hype project A, tomorrow project B.
No framework, no logic, just emotions.
And what is Hayes doing?
He watches French government bond yields, EURJPY exchange rate, Fed's RMP operations, and US Treasury's buyback plans.
He sees what others don't, then puts his positions on the line.
I don't blindly follow anyone.
But when someone's macro framework is validated step by step by the market, and his target price still has 3x upside —
it's at least worth spending 30 minutes to read his article.
Not because he called ETH at $10,000.
But because the logic chain he used to derive $10,000 is becoming reality step by step.
French government bonds at 4.17%.
EURJPY 185.
US Treasury buybacks doubled.
Fed may restart balance sheet expansion.
Four clues point to the same direction.
Do you think this is a coincidence, or someone has already seen the game clearly in advance?
$BTC $ETH $ETHFI Historical Pattern: The "Seasonal Curse" of September
September has historically been the worst-performing month for the US stock market. Since 1971, the Nasdaq Composite Index has averaged a return of -0.9% in September; the S&P 500 Index has averaged a decline of 0.7% in September, with positive returns recorded only 45% of the time; the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a decline of 0.8% in September since 1950.
Although the Nasdaq has ended higher in 52% of Septembers, the long-term average return remains negative. This "September Effect" mainly stems from: fund managers returning after Labor Day, adjusting holdings before the fourth quarter, trimming winners or selling losers; some funds' fiscal years ending in September or October, creating a tax-loss harvesting window. $QQQ #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注