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#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is once again stirring the global energy market. After the U.S. military launched a new round of airstrikes targeting Iran on September 1, Brent crude oil has been on a continuous rise since the late August low, with prices now approaching a six-week high.
Data from tanker tracking agencies Vortexa and Kpler show that Saudi Arabia's observable crude oil exports in August were only 3 million barrels per day, the lowest level in nine years since 2017. A key fact to clarify: the current shipping bottleneck is not the Strait of Hormuz. According to information cited by CNN from U.S. officials, the U.S. military escorted 40 commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz on September 1, setting a wartime record for transit volume, and the main oil passage remains open.
The real bottleneck appears on the Red Sea route. To avoid geopolitical risks, Saudi Arabia has chosen to reroute through the Red Sea, but this route has been continuously attacked by Houthi forces, disrupting maritime lines and directly suppressing Saudi crude oil export volumes. Supply disruptions in the energy market are not limited to the Middle East; the Russia-Ukraine front also introduces variables. U.S. official Bassett, when discussing inflation in living costs, pointed out both Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and the situation in Iran; attacks on energy facilities have already prompted Russia to extend its diesel export ban until the end of this month, further tightening global refined oil supply.#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
Looking at the recent changes in the crude oil market and after reviewing the data, I feel the situation is far more complex than it appears on the surface.
After the US military airstrike on Iran, Brent crude oil surged, approaching a six-week high. But interestingly, the Strait of Hormuz shipping was not blocked; the US military escorted commercial vessels through, and the strait's throughput actually hit a wartime record high. The real bottleneck in transportation is actually the Red Sea route. Saudi Arabia, to avoid risks, rerouted through the Red Sea but has continuously faced attacks from Houthi forces.
Oil tanker tracking data shows Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports dropped to 3 million barrels per day in August, the lowest in 9 years since 2017. Oil prices rose while export volumes sharply declined, which is not caused by a single factor. Besides the Red Sea, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is also adding chaos. Ukraine continues to strike Russian energy facilities, and Russia has extended its diesel export ban until the end of this month, further tightening energy supply.
Many people thought the conflict was just about blocking the Strait of Hormuz, but reality has taught the market a lesson. The risk points have spread to multiple shipping routes. The supply contraction combined with geopolitical conflicts places real upward pressure on oil prices. As long as this geopolitical fire does not extinguish, the energy market will find it hard to truly stabilize.$SOL dropped about 3% to around $99, leading the decline among the top ten cryptocurrencies along with ETH and XRP—BTC fell below $76,500 in the same period, and oil prices rose above $93.
There is only one reason: macro risk aversion. The US military struck Iranian targets again today, causing a broad contraction in market risk sentiment. As a high Beta asset, SOL's decline was greater than BTC's.
But there is one coordinate worth remembering: SOL is at $99 today, compared to $63 a month ago. The monthly increase is over +35%, and today's 3% drop is a normal pullback within this rise, not a trend reversal.
Two technical levels are most important today: $100 is the key integer resistance that SOL broke through this round; whether it can hold at the close determines structural strength or weakness; $95-$96 is the first support below, and breaking it would target the previous high concentration zone at $89-$90.
ETF data today is against the trend: SOL spot ETFs have seen continuous net inflows in the first five days of this week, and today's institutional moves amid risk sentiment are key observation points to judge whether SOL can rebound quickly.
Interest rate hike probability at 65-68% + escalating Middle East tensions + whether $100 holds—these three factors are simultaneously weighing on SOL today.
Now is a good time to build a position; this wave of $SOL must break through 300 dollars #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #Robinhood链上交易激增，币股Meme成主角 Robinhood Chain's recent surge is not about "how much Meme has risen," but about the "crypto-stock pairing" gameplay that welds Meme's speculative enthusiasm with real assets from the US stock market—Meme pumps during market closures, while tokenized stocks on-chain get locked up, and arbitrageurs enter at Monday's open to fill the gap. This is not a zero-sum game; Meme is injecting liquidity into RWA.
The data is indeed impressive. Robinhood Chain's single-day trading volume reached $1.43 billion, setting a new record for five consecutive days, with on-chain fees of $2.13 million, surpassing the combined totals of Solana, Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Base during the same period. DEX 24-hour trading volume exceeded $900 million for the first time, Meme launchpad trading volume hit $438 million, and RWA transaction volume surpassed $200 million for the first time. TVL reached $708 million, nearly doubling from the previous period.
The core driver is the "crypto-stock pairing." Meme coin liquidity pools no longer use ETH or stablecoins but directly pair with tokenized US stocks—NVDA, TSLA, SPCX, HIMS. Long.xyz has become the largest traffic gateway, with daily trading volume exceeding $22.2 million and a market share of 72.1%. AI tokens paired with NVDA reached a market cap of $190 million at one point. $BONER paired with HIMS saw on-chain HIMS pushed to $132 during the weekend market closure, while Friday's close was only $28.8.Robinhood Chain making money puts ETH in a bit of an awkward position
There is a piece of news in today's crypto market that is easy to overlook: Robinhood Chain's related revenue performance is very strong, even sparking discussions about "daily income surpassing Ethereum," while $ARB has been pulled back up by capital. On the surface, this seems like a story about Robinhood and Arbitrum, but in reality, it hits a pain point for $ETH: the Ethereum ecosystem is growing larger, but where exactly does the value stay?
$ETH is around $2400 today, with a short-term performance that isn't strong. Logically, a high-traffic platform like Robinhood bringing trading and on-chain activity into L2 should be positive for the ETH ecosystem, because L2 ultimately still relies on Ethereum's security layer as the foundation. But the market isn't naive; it asks a more detailed question: when users trade on L2, and the revenue is taken by L2, front ends, and applications, how much does ETH itself actually capture? This has been a recurring question about ETH over the past few years.
Back when Ethereum was at its strongest, buying $ETH meant buying on-chain activity. The DeFi boom, NFT craze, high Gas fees—ETH directly benefited. Now it's different: L2 has smoothed out user experience and lowered fees, making the application layer and platform entry points increasingly important. Once something like Robinhood Chain is operational, it means that in the future users might not even know which chain they're using; they only know whether Robinhood works well. This is progress for ordinary users but poses a valuation challenge for ETH.
However, I don't see this as bearish for ETH. On the contrary, it shows the Ethereum ecosystem is entering a phase of "competing for value at the application entry point." $ETH can't rely on high Gas fees forever; its true long-term value should come from settlement, security, asset accumulation, and institutional trust. The problem is that the short-term market is unwilling to pay for this underlying value immediately, especially when U.S. Treasury yields are high and rate hike expectations are rising. Capital prefers assets with visible immediate income and growth.
So the key trading range for $ETH today remains 2500 to 2550. If it can't break above, it means stories about Robinhood, L2, and application explosions are still just ecosystem positives and haven't translated into ETH buying pressure; if it breaks above, the market will re-accept the logic that "strong L2 means strong ETH." Otherwise, capital will likely continue to speculate on $ARB, applications, and platforms rather than directly buying ETH.
If I were writing this for retail investors, I'd remind them of one point: don't confuse "a strong Ethereum ecosystem" with "ETH will definitely rise immediately." Ecosystem strength is a long-term logic; short-term coin price depends on value capture and capital flow. Robinhood Chain making money should first prompt you to see who is taking the revenue, who is taking the users, and who holds the settlement rights—not just blindly chase ETH whenever you see the word Ethereum.
Of course, $ETH is not without counterattack opportunities. If L2 activity later brings more asset inflows, stablecoin issuance continues to increase, and ETF capital re-enters, ETH's underlying asset attributes will be revalued. What it lacks now is not a story but price confirmation. Holding 2400 is just not bad; breaking back above 2500 is when repair truly begins.
Today's hot topic teaches the market a lesson: future crypto competition is not just about public chain TPS, nor just mainnet Gas fees, but about who controls the user entry points. Robinhood Chain lets $ARB shine and forces $ETH to answer the value capture question. Before the answer comes out, ETH can be watched, but don't treat ecosystem news as a direct buy signal for the coin price.
If this story continues to ferment, I'll watch two directions: first, whether $ARB can retain revenue and users; second, whether $ETH can reclaim valuation power through its settlement layer status. The former represents application entry, the latter represents underlying security. Ultimately, the market will reward whoever—don't look at slogans, look at where cash flow and asset accumulation actually land.**Virtual Currency Market Monitoring｜2026.09.03
**1️⃣ Today's Market Summary**
**Range-bound Oscillation · Weak Recovery**. BTC fluctuated narrowly between $76,200 and $77,800, with the total network market cap around $2.61 trillion (24h -2.95%). After a 25% surge in August, the market entered a digestion phase. The Fear & Greed Index is 71 (greed zone, down 2 from the previous day). Overall funds remain cautious, with some local themes being tested but no trend-driven advances.
**2️⃣ Mainstream Coin Performance**
| Coin | Price | 24h Change | Market Cap |
|------|-------|------------|------------|
| BTC | $77,300 | -0.2% | $1.55 trillion |
| ETH | $2,390 | -1.0% | $288.8 billion |
| BNB | $686 | +0.7% | $91.3 billion |
| OKB | ~$92 | -5.3% | $21.8 billion |
| SOL | $100 | +1.1% | $58.4 billion |
- **BTC**: 24h range $76,264–$77,792, volume ratio 0.57 (well below 7-day average), significant volume contraction. August ETF inflows hit $3.5 billion, a new high in over a year, but September rate hike probability rising to 62% is a suppressing factor.
- **ETH**: Fell below $2,400, ETH/BTC ratio at 0.0309 (-0.9%), weaker than the market, on-chain Gas activity low reflecting insufficient activity.
- **BNB**: Slight rise against the trend, supported by active BNB Chain Meme ecosystem, showing strongest resistance to decline.
- **OKB**: 24h down 5.3%, volume ratio only 0.17, liquidity thin, weakest among platform tokens.
- **Overall Market**: BTC market share 59.6% (+0.94%), ETH 11.2% (+0.92%), both rising indicating altcoin funds being siphoned off.
**3️⃣ Sector Rotation**
**🟢 Strong Sectors:**
1. **GameFi** (+8.87%): strongest direction, Akedo (AKE) +82.95%, SAND +4.65%, funds flowing from high-valuation sectors to undervalued gaming chains.
2. **On-chain Meme**: Robinhood Chain leads transaction volume, Top 10 transaction volume $280 million, $PONS leading, stock token narrative heating up.
3. **Solana Ecosystem**: SOL holding $100 support, whales staking 268,000 SOL ($60.7 million), network slot time shortened to 350ms.
**🔴 Weak Sectors:**
1. **ETH/DeFi**: ETH below $2,400, DeFi TVL growth stalled, staking protocols like Lido weakening.
2. **Layer2**: Base mainnet sudden outage (block production interrupted), raising concerns about L2 stability.
3. **AI Concept**: Hot money flowing back from AI to crypto (confirmed by CZ), AI sector funds retreating temporarily.
4. **XRP**: -0.68% to $1.34, after a 40-50% surge in past 7 days, entering profit-taking phase.
**Fund Style**: Rapid rotation with overall cautious risk aversion. GameFi is a low-valuation recovery rather than a trend-driven advance; Meme heat concentrated in few tokens, no single dominant group.
**4️⃣ Fund and Liquidation Flows**
- **Liquidations**: About $150–220 million liquidated network-wide in 24h, approximately 83,000–90,000 accounts liquidated; longs account for 67.7%. ETH liquidations lead at $53.62 million (70% longs), BTC $47.61 million (64% longs). Concentrated liquidation range BTC $76,200–76,800.
- **Funding Rates**: Major exchanges USDT perpetual +0.006%~+0.010%, 8h average about 0.008%, mildly bullish but leverage not high, mainly spot-driven.
- **Long-Short Ratio**: 52:48, longs slightly dominant but not crowded.
- **Whales**: Exchange whale ratio 30-day average rose to 0.6, large holders dominate inflows; SOL whales continue withdrawing and staking, showing strong long-term holding intent.
- **ETF Funds**: August BTC ETF net inflow $3.5 billion, highest in over a year, institutional buying returning.
---
**5️⃣ Today's Market Main Themes**
**No clear main theme**. Core reasons:
1. Theme rotation too fast, GameFi lacks sustained catalysts.
2. BTC dominance rose to 59.6%, siphoning altcoin funds.
3. September rate hike expectations heating up (62%), sentiment cautious.
4. Middle East geopolitical disturbances (Hormuz Strait tanker explosion), risk-off sentiment rising.
5. BTC volume-price divergence (volume ratio 0.57), direction unclear.
---
**6️⃣ Key Focus for Next Day**
**Key Levels:**
- BTC: Support $76,200→$75,500→$73,900; Resistance $77,800→$79,400→$80,000 (watershed)
- ETH: Support $2,353→$2,300; Resistance $2,400→$2,500
**Key Sectors:**
- Monitor continuation: GameFi volume follow-up (AKE, SAND)
- Oversold rebound: ETH/DeFi if holding above $2,380 or showing recovery
- Avoid: Low liquidity tokens like OKB, XRP profit-taking
**Key News:**
- 📅 9/4 US Nonfarm Payrolls (key trigger)
- 📅 September Fed meeting expectations
- 🔗 Base mainnet outage follow-up repair
- 📊 BTC ETF fund flow continuation
**Core Risks:**
- ⚠️ BTC breaking below $76,200 may trigger chain liquidations (long risk concentrated about $1.08 billion below $2,353)
- ⚠️ Escalation of Middle East conflict → risk-off asset siphoning
- ⚠️ Rising rate hike expectations → broad risk asset decline$BTC $ETH $SOL This morning BTC hovered between 76.4k–77.4k, ETH hovered near 2390 close to the 2400 mark, neither breaking nor crashing, a typical "pre-rate hike eve" low-volume sideways consolidation. In terms of strength, BTC is tougher than ETH, ETH/BTC shows no improvement, altcoins are weaker, with SOL and TRX leading the declines, UNI is a rare survivor, rallying 10% against the trend.
Liquidations are the real deal: 367 million liquidated across the network in 24h, longs account for 77%, Binance alone wiped out 11.99 million ETH longs in one trade, leveraged bulls repeatedly getting shaved off in the fake rebound moves. On the cycle, after BTC rose nearly 25% in August, it entered a 5-day narrow range consolidation, 76.3k is the "real market average" anchor point according to Bitfinex, holding above it means high-level turnover, failing to hold points to 74–75k.
Macro sentiment is unfriendly: 10-year US Treasury at 4.79%, oil price broke 94, Fed September rate hike odds priced up to 66%, fear and greed index dropped from 81 back to 63–71, greed cooling but no panic. Profit-taking is reducing positions, institutional strategies with inverted 80k cost are still buying, retail high leverage has mostly been washed out. Don't chase the rebound today, lightly test longs if 76k holds, if 78k can't be breached treat it as weak consolidation, wait for September FOMC to set direction before increasing leverage.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
After reviewing the earnings reports of Broadcom and Snowflake, the AI market is quietly shifting tracks📊
Having gone through the earnings of several major AI companies these days, one clear impression is that the demand logic for AI seems to be changing.
Let's start with Broadcom: Q3 revenue and profits exceeded expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue directly hitting $16.7 billion. The fundamentals in computing power are indeed very strong. But the problem lies in the Q4 revenue guidance, which is slightly below market expectations, causing the stock price to plunge over 6% after hours before gradually narrowing the losses.
It’s clear that market expectations for it have been raised very high; investors no longer just focus on current data but are more concerned whether subsequent AI chips and network business can continue to break through the already maxed-out growth expectations. Any slight miss leads to capital voting with their feet.
On the other hand, Snowflake’s earnings tell a completely different story. Product revenue in Q2 surged 37% year-over-year, the number of accounts using the AI-assisted coding tool CoCo has risen to 9,100, and the company raised its full-year revenue and margin guidance, causing the stock to jump over 21% after hours.
However, it is not without pressure; whether it can maintain this performance going forward depends mainly on whether AI features can continuously drive customer usage and truly boost cloud data consumption.#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Let's talk about two very representative AI earnings reports from last night, which are quite enlightening after reading.
First, Broadcom's Q3 revenue and profit both beat expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue reaching $16.7 billion. The computing power chip segment remains strong. But the problem lies in the Q4 guidance, with overall revenue slightly below market estimates, causing the stock to drop over 6% in after-hours trading before the decline was partially recovered. The market's expectations for it are already very high, and everyone is watching whether AI chips and networking business can continue to exceed expectations and push higher.
On the other hand, Snowflake showed a completely different trend. Product revenue in Q2 rose 37% year-over-year, and its AI coding tool CoCo now has 9,100 accounts using it. The company directly raised its full-year revenue and profit margin guidance, with after-hours trading surging over 21%. Whether it can continue to go far depends on whether AI features can continuously drive customer data usage and cloud business consumption.
Looking at Dell, Broadcom, and Snowflake together, a clear main line emerges: AI demand is spreading from the upstream servers and chips gradually toward cloud data and software applications.
However, one thing to note is that capital is no longer "rising just by touching AI." The market's demands for the speed of performance fulfillment are much stricter than before. Hardware needs to see if growth can withstand high expectations, and software needs to see if AI features can genuinely drive customer payments. Robinhood on-chain volume is increasing, but the most awkward part is that the traffic isn't necessarily coming from the areas it most wants to promote
It wants to talk about tokenized stocks, on-chain brokerages, and traditional assets going on-chain. But many users rush first into Meme coin stocks, short-term speculation, and emotional trading. This scene is very real: financial institutions want to package on-chain as new infrastructure, but users treat it as a faster casino
I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing. Many new financial entry points initially rely on speculation to educate the market. But the question is whether Robinhood can guide this chaotic traffic toward compliant securitized trading, rather than just leaving the label of "more convenient speculation"
The real challenge of on-chain finance is not getting users to come, but making sure they don't misuse the product once they arrive
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 📉Thursday 9.3｜BTC holds 77,000, ETH breaks below 2400, volume shrinks before Nonfarm payrolls
Family, we've had 5 consecutive days of narrow-range oscillation😮💨
Today BTC hovered between $76,900–77,500 (24h slight drop of 0.3%), with support still holding at 76.3k–76.5k; ETH couldn't hold, dropped below 2400 and fluctuated around $2,378–2,395 (24h -1.5%~-2.4%), weaker than BTC.
SOL around $87, XRP around $1.27, altcoins mostly green but no panic selling, Fear & Greed index down from 71 to 63 (greed cooling off).
🔑Today's rhythm
• BTC: Support at 76.3k–76.5k (20-day MA + previous spike) → if broken, look for 75k–75.5k
• Resistance at 78.0k–78.5k → only above that to watch 79.5k–80k
• ETH: Watershed at 2,400, needs to reclaim 2,450 to turn strong; below, 2,350–2,380 is first support, break below looks at 2,250
💡Summary
After the August bull frenzy, this is the 5th day of turnover, with macro double pressure: Middle East oil price surging to 94 + 10Y US Treasury at 4.8% + 66% chance of September rate hike, ETF outflows slightly since early September.
But on-chain buy orders above 76.3k remain intact, this is not a crash but a "volume contraction and deleveraging before Nonfarm payrolls." Tonight's Beige Book + Friday's Nonfarm payrolls are this week's decisive factors: weak data → yields fall, coins rebound to 78k; strong data → break 76.3k to test 75k. Broadcom and Snowflake are both being closely watched by the market, as AI trading shifts from "who sells the hardware" to "who can capture the software billing".
Broadcom's highlight is custom chips and infrastructure orders, while Snowflake's focus is whether enterprise data and AI applications can continue to raise expectations. Previously, as long as AI was involved, the market was willing to give a valuation upfront; now it's different, investors are starting to review the books to see if customers are actually continuing to pay.
I think the harshest part of this AI cycle is that hardware demand is easy to see, but software returns need to be verified slowly. Once servers are delivered, revenue appears; data platforms and applications depend on renewals, usage frequency, and enterprise budgets.
The AI boom won't stop at chips, but not many companies will pass the financial report stress test.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 The September 4th non-farm payroll report is like the last "open-book exam" before the FOMC.
ADP has already given a somewhat cold signal, with slow private sector job growth; but what the market really wants to see is not just whether a number is good or bad, but whether employment, wages, and the unemployment rate align with each other. If employment is weak but wages remain sticky, Walsh's policy stance will be very uncomfortable; if employment isn't that bad, the rate hike expectations won't easily fade.
What BTC fears most here is not bad data, but data that splits the market in two. Bulls want to hear about rate cuts, bears want to hear about persistent inflation, and each camp can find a phrase to use as a weapon.
In this environment, a sense of direction will be very costly, and patience even more so.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $SKHYNIX Do you think you can bottom-fish just because SK Hynix surged after the US stock market opened?
Last night after the US market opened, SK Hynix surged to the resistance level at 1218, tried multiple times to break through 1218 but failed, then the market sharply dropped, indicating strong selling pressure above. The recent dip clearly looks like a bull trap.
The previous positive factors have been fully priced in, combined with high US Treasury pressure and foreign capital outflow, indicating no new upward momentum in the short term. On the four-hour chart, SK Hynix is still in a downtrend. Without positive news support, how can SK Hynix's price rise?
Therefore, don't blindly bottom-fish or rely on feelings. Focus on the trend and key levels, control your positions reasonably, and have every step planned for the safest approach.
Intraday, Sister Shan's view on SK Hynix remains bearish!! You can enter a short position at the current level of 1201!! Target is 1185🔥The U.S. August nonfarm payroll report on September 4th is the biggest variable that all assets have been watching closely these past few days. But before its release, a series of preliminary data have already swung market sentiment back and forth several times, so it's worth reviewing the whole picture. First, let's talk about the latest ADP report. The August ADP private sector job additions, released on September 2nd, were only 38,000, not only below the market expectation of 48,000 but also the lowest since January this year. Looking back one month, July's ADP performance was also weak, with an increase of 44,000, which was already a significant drop from the revised 95,000 in June. The cooling of job growth is not a one-time accident but a confirmation in the same direction for several consecutive months. By industry, this is not a comprehensive collapse but structural differentiation. Education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and construction are still adding staff; meanwhile, manufacturing and professional and business services are contracting. This "some industries holding up while others are cutting" situation is harder to judge than a simple "overall weakening"—it is neither enough to make the market fully price in a recession nor enough to keep the originally hawkish policy expectations stable. What is even more noteworthy is that the official data itself is being continuously revised downward. The Bureau of Labor Statistics made a preliminary benchmark revision for the 12 months ending March 2026, lowering employment by 79,000 jobs; and the official nonfarm data for July unexpectedly recorded negative growth, decreasing by 23,000 jobs. Previously, May and June data were also revised downward, with a total reduction of 103,000 jobs over three months compared to earlier reports. In the past two days, the market has seen a rather contradictory combination:
Employment data is starting to weaken, yet expectations for a September rate hike are heating up.
The latest ADP report shows that the U.S. private sector added about 38,000 jobs in August, below the market expectation of 47,000, marking one of the weaker months recently. JOLTS job openings have also cooled down, and Friday's nonfarm payroll data may continue to be the market focus.
Logically, weakening economic data should support rate cut expectations, but the market is currently worried not about "economic cooling" but about inflation possibly picking up again. Energy prices are affected by geopolitical conflicts, long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, with the 10-year yield once approaching 4.81%, and market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September have clearly intensified.
This makes the market environment very difficult:
Employment is not strong, indicating weakening economic momentum;
Inflation is not falling, limiting room for policy easing;
Interest rates remain high, putting continued pressure on tech stock valuations and financing costs.
If the combination of "continued weakening employment and persistently high inflation" emerges, the market may start to trade stagflation risks. For stocks and crypto assets, this environment is usually more challenging than simply high interest rates, because capital worries about both growth and price pressures.
Of course, single-month data is not enough to determine policy direction; the real key lies in upcoming nonfarm payrolls, CPI, oil prices, and Federal Reserve officials' statements.
Do you think the Fed will continue to maintain a hawkish stance in September, or will cooling employment eventually force a policy shift? $BTC Not running away
Not scared even if it drops
Keep fighting to the end
I am a hardcore $ETH bear
Must push it back to 2000
Last night BTC reached 76416
ETH only 2394
So 2000 is not far away
The short side is really comfortable this round
This short was opened at 2418
Now around 2394
Floating profit nearly 500U
This time I dare to hold on
Not because of one bearish candle
But because the macro pressure hasn't eased at all
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to about 4.81%
It once broke 4.8% intraday
The market's probability of a September rate hike is approaching 70%
CME data shows a 66.9% chance of a rate hike
In this environment
The rebound is just an opportunity to short
High-leverage longs will step on themselves
$SOL has been obviously worse these two days
Directly fell below $100
When the market is weak
High Beta assets only fluctuate more extremely
No matter how strong before, now they can't hold
$BTC is relatively more resistant to the drop
Only fell less than 2%
But resistance to falling doesn't mean it can rise
This macro wall is right there
So this time I'm not in a hurry to close
2000 is within reach first
Then decide whether to keep greedy!
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
#30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ In the past six months, a low-key yet highly significant financial migration has quietly unfolded. The Dutch central bank (DNB) quietly completed a heavyweight operation: transferring 86 tons of gold reserves from overseas vaults in New York and Ottawa to the London settlement system. The official statement was very restrained, only explaining externally that it was to improve asset liquidity, respond to potential crises, and diversify geopolitical risks. But those familiar with macroeconomics know that central bank gold moves have never been simple logistics coordination but a blatant vote of confidence. This is not an isolated case. France had already taken action earlier, clearing the last 129 tons of old gold stored at the New York Fed and simultaneously exchanging an equivalent amount of new gold bars meeting LBMA international delivery standards in the European market. After this maneuver, not only was gold assets standardized, but they also profited about 13 billion euros in profits. The official rhetoric may seem dignified, but the underlying message is blunt: no longer trusting the U.S. to entrust all core assets to U.S. custody. For a long time, many countries around the world have deposited gold in New York Treasuries, with two main demands: first, to rely on the dollar system for ultimate liquidation convenience; second, to tacitly assume the U.S. will provide security guarantees for implicit assets. But now, core U.S. allies like the Netherlands and France have actively relocated and restructured their gold storage layouts, essentially openly overturning this implicit guarantee. Not only Europe, but Japan is also advancing similar operations. The well-known JGB reshoring is Japan's continued withdrawal of U.S. Treasury assets held at the Federal Reserve back to the U.S. market. This seems like independent moves by Europe and Japan, but the underlying logic is completely similar: countries are quietly divestingCurrently, we are in a strong tightening environment before the non-farm payroll data, with a 66%+ expectation of a rate hike in September, the 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 4.81%, and high oil prices. Overall, this is a macro-driven valuation kill, not an on-chain fundamental collapse.
Market characteristics: liquidity tightening, lack of incremental funds, existing funds repeatedly switching and selecting assets across various sectors and coins, the broad rally has ended, entering a phase of differentiation and volatility.#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
Let's review the current market contradictions: a series of earlier employment indicators have already signaled cooling, with August ADP private employment increasing by only 38,000, below market expectations. The Fed's Beige Book also confirmed that most regions across the U.S. are experiencing only moderate economic expansion, with weakening employment momentum.
However, rate hike expectations have not quickly declined; CME tools show the pricing for a 25bp rate hike in September still holds at 62.3%. Inflation harbors hidden risks: while core PCE appears stable, more than half of the PCE subcomponents have year-over-year increases exceeding 3%, so the risk of inflation diffusion has not disappeared. Fed officials' statements are cautious, acknowledging some inflation improvement but leaving open the possibility of further policy tightening.
All suspense is reserved for this Friday at 20:30 with the August nonfarm payroll report. This data will directly adjust rate hike probabilities, thereby influencing the short-term trends of the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and crypto markets. For BTC, this nonfarm report is a watershed for the short-term market; the strength or weakness of the data will directly determine the upcoming market direction. This week, position sizing must be carefully controlled to avoid the huge volatility risk in the evening.#FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday
With the FOMC meeting on September 16 approaching, the market has only one major employment report left as a reference for decision-making. Recent leading economic data have already signaled a clear cooling, and market competition has entered a white-hot phase.
August ADP private sector employment increased by only 38,000, below the market expectation of 47,000, marking the slowest growth since January this year, with private sector hiring clearly slowing down. The latest Fed Beige Book also confirms this trend, with 10 out of 12 districts reporting only moderate economic growth, and overall employment growth momentum continuing to weaken.
Even though employment data is cooling, market bets on rate hikes have not completely faded. CME interest rate futures show a 62.3% probability of a 25 basis point hike in September. The core contradiction behind this comes from inflation: core PCE remains high at 3.3%, and the detailed data is even more concerning. Among 178 PCE sub-items, 54% have year-on-year increases exceeding 3%, compared to only 47% a year ago, indicating inflationary pressures are spreading.
Fed official Williams expressed a cautious stance, acknowledging some improvement in current inflation data but remaining watchful on whether to continue raising rates, awaiting the final employment data.
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the August nonfarm payroll data will be the last key piece before this meeting. This data will directly determine the Fed's policy direction in September, and the short-term pricing of the dollar, US Treasury yields, and risk assets like BTC all hinge on this Friday night's data release, making market volatility highly worth watching.Friday's jobs report is the last major data the Fed sees before the September FOMC — no more NFP prints between here and the decision, which compresses a lot into one number. After July's negative payrolls print, a soft read likely locks in a cut and pulls the easing story forward; a hot one revives a pause the market has stopped pricing. For BTC and risk it's a low-vol coil into a binary catalyst, and those resolve sharply. Watch the print, not the pre-positioning.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC Family, September has just begun, and the market has already taken a hit: On September 2nd, geopolitical conflicts escalated, causing over $300 million in liquidations across the crypto market within 24 hours, with 83,000 people forcibly liquidated, of which more than 80% were long positions. Historically in crypto, September has always been the worst-performing month. As for why this phenomenon occurs, today Xiao Huangdou will thoroughly break down this issue: 1. Looking at history first: September is indeed one of the worst months for BTC. Let's look at the data: Have you noticed an interesting point? The curse seems to have failed in the last three years: BTC rose about 4% in September 2023, about 7.25% in September 2024, and about 5.36% in September 2025, rising for three consecutive years. Could the so-called "September curse" actually be the result of liquidity, macro factors, and market leverage resonating together in this time window? 2. Liquidity/liquidity expectations affect the market's re-pricing. September happens to be a time window when macro re-pricing is very likely. This year it may be even more obvious. The Federal Reserve will hold the FOMC meeting from September 15 to 16, and the market's pricing for a 25bp rate hike in September once rose to about 66%–68%. BTC remains a high Beta risk asset in the short term: Rate hike expectations ↑ → US Treasury yields ↑ (10-year has broken 4.79%, a 19-month high) → risk-free rate increases → risk asset valuations under pressure → BTC and high Beta altcoins fluctuate first. September also overlaps with oil$OKB NIUMA community core departure reasons
• Insufficient ecosystem liquidity and lack of wealth effect: After the launch of X Layer (formerly OKB Chain), the ecosystem lacks continuously popular DeFi applications and killer Meme assets, severely limiting liquidity. Retail investors ("bull horses") find it difficult to achieve the expected profit effect.
• Platform resource bias and unmet listing expectations: Retail investors in the community originally expected that native ecosystem projects could quickly receive listing support on OKX main site spot or futures markets, but the actual threshold is very high, leading to early participants and builders losing enthusiasm.
• Strong siphoning effect from competing chains: Bull chains like Solana, Base, and Sui have heavily invested in Meme launch platforms (such as Pump.fun) and ecosystem incentives, creating a strong centrifugal drain effect on retail funds and attention.
Subsequent impact on OKB
• Short term: Decentralized gas demand (Gas Fee) under pressure
• The loss of the bull horse community and DEX trading volume directly reduces the consumption and locking demand of OKB on the X Layer chain, weakening its "ecosystem fuel" attribute at the Web3 chain layer.
• Medium to long term: Value anchoring returns to CEX empowerment and buyback mechanisms
• Price support resilience: The core value of OKB is still fundamentally supported by OKX exchange's platform revenue, fee deductions, and regular platform burn mechanisms, rather than solely depending on the X Layer chain ecosystem.
• Valuation ceiling reconstruction: Without an active on-chain ecosystem and community consensus (DeFi/Meme driven), OKB is less likely to enjoy the ecosystem premium of bull chains (such as SOL, BNB). Its valuation will be more tightly bound to OKX exchange's own business growth and global compliance progress.Brothers, the start of September is unfavorable. Bitcoin fell below $77,000, Ethereum lost the $2,400 level, and Solana dropped below $100. In the past 24 hours, the crypto market liquidations reached $370 million, with over 90,000 leveraged traders forcibly liquidated. Oil prices hit $90 per barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.78%—macroeconomic headwinds are suppressing all risk assets. This article will break down three core issues: why the drop happened, who suffered the worst losses, and what to watch next. 📊 Let's look at the data: what happened in the past 24 hours? As of September 3, BTC fell about 2.14% over the past 7 days to $77,336, ETH dropped about 4.57% to $2,392 in the same period. The total crypto market cap retreated to around $2.6 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index rose to 71, but the altcoin season index was only 32, indicating the market rally has not fully spread. Liquidations were concentrated on leveraged longs. Of the total $369.67 million liquidated, long liquidations accounted for $301.84 million, or 81.6%. Over 90,000 leveraged traders were forcibly liquidated that day. By asset, Bitcoin liquidations led with $111.83 million, Ethereum $95.39 million, Solana $27.09 million, and XRP also weakened. 🔥 Primary driver: $90 oil + 4.78% Treasury yield, a double squeeze on risk assets The direct trigger for the market weakness was the simultaneous rise in international oil prices and US Treasury yields. A new round of military conflict erupted between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI🔥The night before Nonfarm Payrolls: If BTC can't hold 77,300, look for 75,000.
Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls is the last data set before the FOMC.
ADP has already contradicted expectations: previous value 46,000, forecast 48,000, actual 38,000.
Simply put: employment is cooling down, and rate hike expectations are not completely dead yet.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $240 million right after opening in September.
I think the area around 77,300 shouldn't be considered a solid bottom.
If it breaks down, look for 75,000; only consider buying again if it holds steady.
Are you waiting for Nonfarm Payrolls to act, or reducing positions now?
#LastDataBeforeFOMC: This Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls #TradingVoice $BTC $ETH In the past two days, $ETH has fallen back from above 2500 USD to around 2400 USD. My 20x long position opened at 1902 is still open, and the unrealized profit is already quite high.
But at this point, I am more concerned about whether the funds continue to come in.
I mainly watch two levels:
Above: 2450–2500 USD. If it can stand back above this range and ETF funds turn strong again, it means there is still capital relay after this pullback, and the market still has room to go up.
Below: Around 2350 USD. If this level holds steady, I am more willing to interpret the current situation as a normal consolidation after the rise; but if it breaks down and ETF outflows continue, then a short-term reassessment is needed.
There is something interesting about ETH right now.
On one hand, institutions and enterprises are still continuously holding ETH, and staking data is not weak; on the other hand, the previously continuous inflows into ETFs have recently cooled down, and the price has fallen from the highs.
So I am not rushing to close the position just because the unrealized profit is high.
This position has been held since 1902. For me, what really matters next is not how much more profit can be made on paper, but whether the funds that drove ETH’s rise are still present.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 $UNI quietly making big moves: The king of DEX silently takes over the US stock tokenization market
UNI is currently at 5.76, down 2.7% in 24h, looking rather ordinary. But Uniswap just accomplished something big
Its stock tokens on Robinhood Chain have surpassed $1.5 billion in trading volume over six weeks, capturing 99% of the network's liquidity. On August 29 alone, it hit a new high of over $130 million, with 60% of trades occurring outside regular US stock market hours.
To translate: global users want to trade Nvidia and Apple stocks late at night without brokers, all flocking to Uniswap. This is the achievement after only two months of US stocks being on-chain.
The V4 protocol is also a money printer: annual revenue potential of $120-325 million. The price has broken the trendline from 4.40 at the end of August to 5.76.
The logic is simple: BNB Chain grabbed the issuance side, Uniswap grabbed the trading side. One is the shelf, the other is the cashier, and the cashier earns more steadily.
5.50 is support; holding above $6 opens new space. #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 "How's Maji doing?"
Private messages and comments, everyone is still so concerned about him 😬
▶︎ 7-day loss of 6.161 million USD, 30-day profit of 4.202 million USD
▶︎ Total account cumulative loss of 30.7 million USD
The guy currently still holds long positions of 128 million USD in $BTC and $ETH, among which 39,100 ETH longs have an unrealized loss of 980,000 USD, liquidation price at $2,342.78 (only about $60 of room), 440 BTC longs have an unrealized profit of 175,000 USD
Portal 👉 0x020ca66c30bec2c4fe3861a94e4db4a498a35872#Saudi crude oil exports fall to a 9-year low, oil prices soar
The leader has something to say
Saudi crude oil exports have dropped to a 9-year low, about 3 million barrels per day. Oil prices surged in response, with Brent crude approaching a six-week high.
The Strait of Hormuz is not blocked; the US military escorted 40 merchant ships through, setting a wartime record for throughput. The blockage is in the Red Sea. To avoid Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is using the Red Sea route, which is currently under attack by Houthi forces.
Pressure on the other side comes from Russia and Ukraine. Besent first mentioned Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities, then Iran. These attacks have forced Moscow to extend the diesel export ban until the end of the month.
With both events happening simultaneously, oil prices are likely to rise in the short term and hard to fall. Inflation expectations are heating up, US Treasury yields are rising, and risk assets are under pressure.
Bitcoin is weak; after failing to break 81,000, the highs continue to decline. Holding ZEC short positions and continuing with $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls, what about ZEC?
Tonight, the US Nonfarm Payrolls will be released. The market currently expects an increase of about 50,000 to 60,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. (Topone Markets)
My judgment: Nonfarm Payrolls are unlikely to be particularly strong, with a higher possibility of being weak or in line with expectations. However, since the Fed's September rate hike expectations have recently clearly intensified, as long as the data does not significantly exceed expectations, the market may still maintain a hawkish trading stance.
For ZEC, strong Nonfarm Payrolls = bearish, weak Nonfarm Payrolls = rebound risk.
So tonight, the focus is on whether ZEC can hold 800 after the data release; if it rebounds, pay close attention to resistance around 830. Do not bet on the data in advance; wait for the market to give direction.
Finally, one more thing: I have already cleared my empty positions. My position was relatively poor for me, so I left. Those interested can check my live trading.In the past 24 hours, the crypto market continued to be in a state of "macro pressure not lifted, but internal funds have not fully withdrawn." BTC and SOL have slightly recovered to the market, ETH is near flat, and the Fear and Greed Index has returned to 65; Meanwhile, preliminary data for US spot ETFs remains weak, stablecoin growth over the past 7 days is only 0.05%, and the past 24 hours of liquidation have mainly been driven by bulls. So the most noteworthy thing today is not whether prices have rebounded, but rather: market sentiment has already recovered, but real incremental funds have not yet returned in sync. After the macro shock, there has been a recovery, but risk appetite remains fragile. As of 09:54 HKT on September 3, BTC was quoted at $77,373, 24h +0.79%; ETH was at $2,388.33, down 0.09%; SOL at $100.21, +1.41%. According to CoinGecko's public charts, the total crypto market cap is about $2.697 trillion, with only a modest increase of about 0.2% in 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index rebounded from 63 to 65, remaining in the greed range. There is a clear difference between price and sentiment: although BTC and SOL rebounded, overall market cap expansion was very limited, and ETH barely participated in the recovery. Among the top 30 non-stablecoins by market cap, ADA rose 5.86%, while Canton fell 3.51%, showing clear capital divergence. The latest verifiable liquidation snapshot is about $356 million, with long positions accounting for about $276 millionDOGE's "backwardness" is precisely its firewall
DOGE is often mocked for "technological stagnation": no smart contracts, no DeFi, no cross-chain bridges. But it is exactly this "backwardness" that forms its strongest firewall.
Looking back at the history of crypto thefts over the years, money was almost always lost in complex places. The Ronin bridge lost over $600 million due to private key management failures, Wormhole lost over $300 million due to signature verification vulnerabilities, flash loans, reentrancy attacks, and oracle manipulations have been rampant—cross-chain bridges once accounted for two-thirds of DeFi hacking incidents. The logic is simple: the more features added, the more complex the code combinations become, and the larger the attack surface grows.
$DOGE goes against this trend by only doing one thing: transfers. There is no virtual machine to exploit, no contract logic to manipulate, no bridge to smuggle through. The code is directly inherited from Bitcoin and Litecoin, with the protocol layer nearly frozen for years, and every line has been tested by over a decade of real-world operation. The mainnet has never lost a penny due to its own vulnerabilities—the only breaches were of peripheral online wallets, not the chain itself.
What Taleb calls "antifragility" is exactly this structure: it does not rely on sophisticated defenses but simply leaves no entry point for accidents. In an industry that desperately stacks features, DOGE proves that simplicity itself is a scarce security asset. Of course, the community is now discussing upgrade proposals to introduce smart contracts, and if implemented, whether this firewall can remain intact is another matter.$FIL This time there's something going on!
This asset has picked up the old narrative of AI storage again, and it rose 5.5% against the trend!
Reasons for the rise:
On-chain storage of AI training data increased by 40% month-over-month, Filecoin is being revalued as a decentralized data layer; the Onchain Cloud mainnet is running, FVM lock-up has taken away some of the circulating supply, tightening supply in the short term.
Even more intense is the first halving in October, with block rewards cut from 32 to 16, annual inflation dropping from 18% to below 7%, directly changing the selling pressure structure. The market usually speculates on expectations six months in advance, and now is the window.
24h trading volume is $16.8 million, which is 3 times the 30-day average. But FIL still has a 16–18% annual issuance, and the 99.7% retracement from 236 to 0.8 is real, a graveyard for retail investors.
7-day volatility is slightly bullish, 0.78 is support, 0.834 is previous high resistance; if it can hold above 0.8, there is still another wave, but if it breaks 0.78, the narrative falls apart. Use it as a flexible position for AI+storage, not as a value coin to hold dead.#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
Employment data is cooling off, but the market is still betting on a 62.3% chance of a rate hike.
The final piece of the employment puzzle before the FOMC will be revealed on Friday:
▪️ ADP only increased by 38,000, expected 47,000, the slowest since January
▪️ Beige Book: 10 out of 12 districts show only moderate growth
▪️ CME: 62.3% priced in for a 25bp hike in September
The disagreement isn’t about employment, but about the Fed’s anchor. Despite such weak data, rate hikes aren’t being suppressed because this round is anchored on inflation: Core PCE stuck at 3.3%, 54% of 178 subcomponents rose over 3%, up from 47% a year ago. Inflation isn’t sticky, it’s spreading.
BTC is stuck at the 80,000 threshold waiting for this data. If below 50,000, rate hike expectations cool down and BTC breaks 80,000 accordingly; if above 100,000, first see if 75,000 can hold. Volatility is suppressed even below actual levels, and once the data is out, it will rebound doubly.
See you Friday at 20:30 for the verdict. Which side are you on: employment softening means stopping, or inflation not returning to 2% means no easing? $BTC ADP only reported 38,000 jobs, BTC bounced back to 77,000, but ETH still feels uncertain
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm payrolls
Today's rebound is the easiest to fool people into getting overconfident.
ADP announced only 38,000 new private jobs in August, BTC quickly returned to $77,688, $ETH also touched 2400.63, $SOL 100.84, up 1.5% intraday.
It looks like the data softened, and risk assets can finally catch a breath.
But watching ETH this time, I still feel uneasy.
In the past few days, its rebound was always a bit delayed; today it finally touched 2400 again, but that doesn't mean this level is truly secured. With weakening employment, the market can first trade on "policy is not that tight"; but the weaker employment is, the more people will start to think about another issue: is the economy more troublesome than expected.
The market is best at playing this game. It pulls up for a while, then waits for the US session to bring out another logic to hit you.
So I’m not in a hurry to call this rebound a real strengthening. BTC holding above 77,500 and ETH grinding above 2400 means there are truly buyers; if BTC falls back to 77,000 and ETH loses 2400 again, this morning’s move is most likely just short covering.
Honestly, seeing them rally makes everyone itchy to act. But rushing in now isn’t betting on the data, it’s betting you won’t just buy at the very first rebound.
$BTC $ETH
#OKX星球话题来啦 #星球日报 SEC Chairman publicly supports, saying the Senate vote on September 15 is expected to pass the CLARITY Act smoothly. But prediction markets poured cold water directly, giving only a 14% chance of passage. The expectation gap between the two sides is ridiculously large. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins clearly stated in an interview that this milestone crypto bill is expected to pass and be sent to the President for signing. The SEC will also update supporting rules to adapt to the blockchain industry. Not only the SEC Chairman, but also Coinbase's CEO and Trump have publicly supported the bill, optimistic about its implementation. If the bill really passes, it will clearly define which coins are securities and which are commodities. BTC and ETH will be classified as digital commodities, ETH staking rewards will be legalized, and the CFTC will gain primary jurisdiction over the spot market, which is a regulatory clarity framework the industry has long awaited. The interesting part is here: senior officials are full of confidence verbally, but the trading market completely rejects this. On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing has plummeted from 82% in February to 14% now; another platform, Kalshi, shows only 22%. Why is there such a serious cognitive divide? Two hurdles are stuck in the Senate. The first is the dispute over stablecoin interest. Traditional banks strongly lobby against stablecoins paying interest to users. Banks worry that funds will massively flow out of deposits to crypto stablecoins, making this interest battle hard to compromise. The second is the tug-of-war over the morality clause. Democrats feel the bill regarding officials, Trum🚨 $CORE Collapse Countdown: Is the Hard Fork the Final Straw?
Core DAO’s emergency hard fork, triggered by validator reward issues, looks less like an upgrade and more like a patch for deeper consensus problems.
The bigger concern: excess $CORE won’t be burned, leaving the added supply in circulation.
No strong buying pressure, limited liquidity, and exchange suspensions could make the next supply release painful.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解
"The Fed firmly shuts the door on rate cuts, Besent directly lifts the tight grip on banks releasing hundreds of billions in liquidity"
The Fed has welded high interest rates firmly in place and refuses to loosen, Besent directly led people to break the locks on all US banks' vaults.
For the past decade or so, whether banks were pulling cotton or iron blocks, reserves were strictly locked at the highest standards, forcing financial institutions to have money but not dare to lend, and small and medium banks lost all profits just coping with complicated compliance reports.
The new plan is to completely remove Treasury bonds and cash reserves from leverage indicators, allowing banks to unload tens of thousands of pounds of burden out of thin air, directly releasing hundreds of billions of dollars more lending capacity without spending a penny.
The Treasury is stepping on the gas to urge enterprises to expand production and dilute debt, and the huge liquidity flowing out of the vaults is already accelerating through interest rate spreads into bond market making and high-yield assets.
On one hand, gritting teeth to fight inflation, on the other, fully unleashing liquidity, two trillion-level macro forces are colliding head-on. $BTC Before the nonfarm payrolls were released on Friday, the Bitcoin market had been hovering around 77,000 for several days. At 8:30 PM on Friday night, this data was the final trump card before the FOMC, directly deciding whether the September rate hike would happen. First, let's talk about how divided market expectations are. In August, the nonfarm payrolls are expected to add 55,000 to 58,000 jobs, while July is -23,000, signaling a "violent rebound." The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, unchanged from the previous value. But ADP's "small nonfarm" rate only added 38,000, the lowest since January this year, and the data is already starting to clash. The bigger context is that after Walsh hawked at Jackson Hole last week, the probability of a rate hike in September has jumped from 35% to over 65%. Williams added another nerf, saying "there's no clear answer" and that they know if rates are now enough to bring inflation back to 2%. Weak employment has not led to any loose pricing; inflation is the dominant variable. Three scenarios, three completely different paths. Scenario 1: Nonfarm payrolls are significantly below expectations (below 30,000) → Rate hike probability cools down→ Speck may rebound, even strongly. But July already lost once and has been weak for two consecutive months, so it's not a "trend" but a "structural problem." Scenario 2: Nonfarm payrolls meet expectations (between 50,000 and 80,000) → This is the most delicate situation. The market expects a violent rebound; if the data meets expectations, the probability of rate hikes will not decrease. Washi has already said—inflation is still too high; as long as employment does not collapse, he has reason to keep suppressing inflation. Scenario 3: The market may face pressure from "exhausting all the good news." Scenario 3: Nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations (over 10,000).🚨【ADP Surprise｜Why Are BTC and ETH Diverging?】
The small nonfarm payrolls data is out: August ADP added only 38,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations, indicating the U.S. labor market is cooling down. In theory, this should support rate cut expectations, giving BTC, ETH, and U.S. stocks some breathing room.
However, the market did not immediately take off; instead, a clear divergence appeared.
BTC showed relative resilience, while ETH was more volatile, with a more noticeable rise and fall.
The reason is simple: the market is trading on two sets of logic simultaneously.
On one side, weakening employment leads to easing rate hike expectations; on the other, the U.S.-Iran conflict plus rising oil prices increase inflationary pressure, and U.S. Treasury yields remain high. The 10-year Treasury yield is still around 4.79%, so interest rate pressure has not truly eased.
Therefore, I am now focusing more on one indicator:
Whether the 10-year Treasury yield can continue to decline.
If yields truly fall, the rate cut trade triggered by ADP could further develop, giving BTC and ETH more sustained rebound potential.
Conversely, if employment weakens, oil prices rise, and yields climb again, this rebound might just be a "rate cut optimism realization."
Friday's nonfarm payrolls will be the real test.
Do you think the nonfarm data will continue to surprise on the downside, or will it trigger another market reversal?👇
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 🔥 LIQUIDITY OR MONEY IS DEPRECIATING – IS BTC RISING BECAUSE OF REAL LIQUIDITY, OR IS IT JUST BECAUSE THE MARKET NO LONGER BELIEVES IN THE USD? There is a question I think will determine the direction of Bitcoin in the coming months: BTC is rising because liquidity is returning... or BTC is rising because investors are worried that fiat currencies are depreciating? Both of these stories can cause Bitcoin to rise. But... The consequences are completely different. And if you get it wrong... you can choose the wrong whole strategy. Here's what I'm looking atQueen XXAntiWar admits loss, liquidates $Niulai? 🤨
— Not really, just changed addresses
Since 08.30, these two addresses have cumulatively spent about $1.787 million to build positions in Niulai, with an average price below $0.086 (most were built when the market cap was 86M); in recent days, through multiple transfers, 17.57 million tokens have been moved to 7 addresses, and they are likely still at an unrealized loss.
Therefore, although Fomo shows XXAntiWar has liquidated, in reality, it’s because the new holding addresses were not recorded.
Holding addresses
0xa1e00D2AD3be823C95F938B4BB5d608118925924
0xa1e00D2AD3be823C95F938B4BB5d608118925924
0xCfC1a3653A4b0576A696872Fc48D1E1ECc6EAD3C
0xcbAEb945f4C506486cbEc0B284A5FBB377ca2eeA
0x0C48ACA41268340477fD8bDaA974074d18b5d516
0xfE572cD2665A456Eec85d482c6dB102bf8D5D850
0x9BbB821a51d9c0eF24dd8592E9CAAd7FC469BBF2To get straight to the point: whether there is a rate hike in September or not, $BTC will rise. A rate hike means the bad news is fully priced in, no hike means the good news is realized. Either way, it goes up.
The probability of a rate hike in September is now 66%, up from 35% a week ago. After Wash's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, the market completely flipped. Everyone panicked again, saying "Rate hike is coming, BTC will drop."
Brothers, I've been through three rate hike cycles, and every time it's the same script. Before the hike, the market is terrified; when the hike actually happens, it goes up. Why? Because the expectation is already priced in. What does a 66% probability mean? It means two-thirds of people already believe the hike will happen, those who needed to sell have sold, and those who needed to short have shorted. The day the hike actually happens, the bad news is out, shorts cover, and the price goes up.
What if there is no hike? Even simpler. The 66% probability fails, bulls explode upward, and shorts get crushed beyond recognition.
Look at another piece of data. Beige Book is out, and there are no strong new hawkish signals. This means Wash's tough talk has reached its limit; the actual data doesn't support him being that hawkish. The toughest talk happens when the rate hike expectation is highest, which is when the price is under the most pressure. When the shoe drops on September 16, whether there is a hike or not, it will go up.
Below 77,000 is a golden buying opportunity. Build your position in batches, buy more as it falls. After September 16, see where the price stands.
Don't ask me how I know. On the day of the rate hike, come back and like this post.
#BTC #RateHike #FOMC #Wash #TimeTravelerTrump Endorses AI Copyright, Policy Direction Draws Market Attention
Former U.S. President Trump publicly expressed support for copyright protection of AI-generated content, sparking discussions on the direction of AI copyright policies. However, the news lacks specific details, and the market impact remains to be seen.
The news headline reads "Trump Endorses AI Copyright," but the article does not provide concrete content or background information. AI copyright issues are currently a global regulatory focus. As a potential next presidential candidate, Trump's stance could influence future determinations by the U.S. Copyright Office and legislative bodies regarding the copyright status of AI-generated content. Support for AI copyright could benefit companies owning AI content creation platforms (such as Adobe, Shutterstock) while increasing legal risks related to the use of AI training data, creating uncertainty for model providers like OpenAI and Meta. Due to the absence of specific statements, contexts, and policy details, it is currently impossible to assess the actual strength of this endorsement and the market reaction.Quiet tape — BTC near $77.5K barely green, ETH lagging at -0.7%, SOL leading small at +0.8%. The read isn't the moves, it's the compression: majors coiling in a tight band while the market waits on Friday's US jobs print. Low-volatility drift into a known catalyst tends to resolve sharply, not gently. Here, positioning for the move matters more than guessing its direction.#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
I am Cige, Broadcom and Snowflake have both reported their results.
Broadcom's Q3 revenue and earnings both exceeded market expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue rising to $16.7 billion. Custom AI chips and networking business continue to benefit. However, the Q4 overall revenue guidance is slightly below analyst forecasts, and the stock price fell more than 6% in after-hours trading before narrowing the decline. The market is confirming one logic: AI demand remains, but the expectations for the speed of performance delivery have increased. Broadcom's network chips are the core link for AI data center interconnection; the slightly lower guidance indicates that market expectations have already outpaced the fundamentals.
Snowflake presents a different scenario. Q2 product revenue grew 37% year-over-year, AI-assisted coding tool CoCo's user accounts increased to 9,100, and the company raised its full-year revenue and margin guidance, with the stock price rising more than 21% in after-hours trading. AI demand is spreading from servers and chips to data clouds and software applications. Snowflake has validated that AI-driven data consumption is accelerating, not just compute power procurement.
Dell previously raised its full-year AI server revenue forecast, with demand for compute infrastructure continuing to grow. The AI chain transmission from chips to servers to networks to data clouds is happening, but the pace varies at each link. The direction hasn't changed, but the pace is shifting. Cige has finished speaking; savor this carefully. $BTC $ETH $SOL Since its inception, Trump Coin has never been a conventional crypto asset. It is a meme token created based on political IP, with no business launches, no cash flow, no technological iteration, and its entire value is built on hype narratives and retail investor speculation. This round of rally peaked above $3.6 and fell to a low of $2.2. Many traders mistakenly believe that after a sharp correction, 2.2 is already near the bottom and the market could rebound to $3 or even higher. However, considering the overall crypto environment, regulatory reality, chip structure, manipulative model, and the project's own harvesting attributes, this coin has a real possibility of falling near $1 and is not an alarmist, extreme speculation. First, we must recognize its underlying attributes: Trump Coin is fundamentally designed to have a harvesting attribute. At the initial issuance, Trump's entities controlled the vast majority of token supply. Initial tokens were heavily concentrated in the hands of project teams and early internal investors, while ordinary retail investors mostly bought shares at high prices in the secondary market. The project's official team can directly earn profits from transaction fees. Early on-chain data shows that project-related wallets earned tens of millions of dollars from transaction fees, while many retail wallets ultimately lost money. Unlike ordinary community-driven meme coins, which are typical meme coins initiated spontaneously by private enthusiasts, Trump coins leverage the political influence of public figures to package personal IPs as tokens for commercial monetization, political flowIs a major crash coming?
Today, this question might be more worth discussing than "when will the rebound happen."
$BTC is currently around $77,000, still not reclaiming the $80,000 level. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury market is putting pressure on risk assets: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to about 4.81%, near a nearly three-year high, and market expectations for a September rate hike have clearly intensified.
What’s more troublesome is the oil price.
After the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, Brent crude briefly surged above $94. Rising oil prices mean inflationary pressures are resurfacing, naturally suppressing expectations for rate cuts.
This is also an important backdrop for the recent weak performance of BTC, ETH, and altcoins.
But it’s unnecessary to shout "imminent crash" just yet.
BTC has not shown signs of extreme leveraged liquidations so far; instead, the macro environment remains persistently tight. If BTC later breaks key support levels while Treasury yields continue to rise, it could trigger a chain reaction of "price drop—liquidations—further decline."
So what we really need to guard against next is not a single large bearish candle, but a sudden tightening of market liquidity.
Failing to hold above $80,000, and then losing the $77,000 area again, will significantly increase risks.
If even $75,000 can’t be defended, then discussing a "major crash" might no longer be just scaring ourselves.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 The US-Iran conflict escalates, gold rebounds, but $BTC falls below $76,500. This time, the "digital gold" is once again being questioned by the market.
Today, Bitcoin once dropped more than 2% to around $76,400, $ETH fell over 3%, and $SOL and $XRP dropped even more. The trigger is still the US-Iran conflict: Brent crude oil surged to $95, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly touched 4.81%, and the market has raised the probability of a rate hike in September to about two-thirds.
Interestingly, gold $XAU pulled back above $4,370 from a low during the session. Also touted as inflation-hedging and currency-devaluation-resistant, when faced with war and interest rate shocks, funds still sell BTC as a risk asset first, rather than buying it immediately as a safe haven.
However, BTC hasn’t completely broken down this time. On Monday, the US spot ETF still saw a net inflow of about $217 million, indicating institutional funds have not collectively fled.
I am currently mainly watching the $75,000 support and $80,000 resistance. If Friday’s nonfarm payrolls continue to push up rate hike expectations, $75,000 may be tested again; if yields fall back, BTC could retake $80,000, making this adjustment more like a deleveraging.
Who is really more of a safe haven, gold or BTC? The market is taking a live test these days.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验