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$ETH 2383, has fallen back to the August low.
It has dropped nearly $120 from 2500. SAR=2464 is acting as resistance, EMA21=2427, EMA55=2418, all have been broken. RSI6=25.4, already in the oversold zone. The bearish momentum has mostly been released, but a rebound needs a bullish candle to confirm, not just support from oversold conditions.
The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating market manipulation by Jump Trading and Wall Street market makers, and executives from Bitfinex and Tether have also received subpoenas. Regulatory pressure is genuinely suppressing market sentiment, and funds are indeed seeking safety. Another signal is that the Grayscale Ethereum Trust's discount rate has widened from 5% to 12%, indicating institutions are selling ETH at lower prices to acquire BTC, which is not a good sign.
When the ETH to BTC exchange rate is still falling, it means funds are flowing from ETH to BTC, so the short-term outlook for ETH may still be pessimistic. At this level, buyers are waiting for lower prices, and sellers are waiting for a rebound to offload.Non-farm payroll data has not yet been released, but Bitcoin has already shown weakness, with the market revealing a tense feeling of paying "protection fees" in advance. The latest JOLTS job openings remain at 7.3 million, indicating that the employment fundamentals have not collapsed; however, the previous non-farm report revised May and June data downward by a total of 103,000, which also shows that the labor market is far from strong. The data is stuck in the middle ground, and both bulls an$CORE This time, a validator reward mechanism vulnerability appeared on Core Network. Some nodes exploited rule loopholes to obtain excess token rewards. The project team stated that risks are under control, malicious nodes can no longer claim abnormal rewards, and plans to implement an emergency hard fork to fix the underlying vulnerability, with no rollback of on-chain transactions that have occurred, and historical transfers remain valid. The project team is highly likely to complete a network upgrade, coordinate with major exchanges to resume deposit and withdrawal services, and disclose technical review of the incident. However, the handling of over-issued tokens remains unclear, and whether to recover, burn, or offset future rewards remains uncertain. In the short term, the event brings strong uncertainty. The market may worry about additional token supply shocks, and combined with some exchanges suspending deposits and withdrawals, panic can amplify price volatility and cause sharp fluctuations. If the hard fork is successfully implemented, the vulnerability is completely closed, and a clear disposal plan for excess tokens is provided, market confidence will gradually recover, and prices may return to their original trend; Conversely, if the disposal plan is vague and excess tokens flow into the secondary market for sell-off, it will continue to suppress the token price. In the medium to long term, the core impact of this event depends on the community's trust in the security of the project's code. This incident is a protocol layer vulnerability. If subsequent audit and governance mechanisms improve, the negative impact will gradually be absorbed; If risk resolution is delayed, it will weaken the confidence of institutions and holders, prolonging the recovery cycle. The above discussion represents only personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice or any guidance!$BTC $ETH $SOL Switch the timeframe to 4 hours, and the picture looks different. BTC is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, with lower highs and lows (79.2k→78.5k→77.5k); the bears control the pace but don’t crash the market, waiting for data; ETH is weaker, after losing 2400, a giant whale’s 45,000 long positions are floating at a loss, liquidation price at 2252, a further drop will trigger a chain of long liquidations.
The liquidation structure explains everything: it’s not a short victory, but the longs collapsing themselves. High leverage chasing the rally and bottom-fishing with doubled positions die first; survivors are low-leverage institutional positions. On the rise and fall, total market cap falls back to 2.6 trillion, BTC dominance rises above 54%, funds are fleeing to the "relatively indestructible" BTC, while ETH and altcoin liquidity is drained.
The macro line is actually contradictory: the Beige Book says prices are rising and employment is soft, so rate hikes aren’t set in stone, but US Treasury yields and oil prices don’t allow crypto to rally. Sentiment is "fake greed, real caution," ETF inflows have stopped, spot volume shrank by 30%, everyone is waiting for the triple hit of September 4th Nonfarm Payrolls, 11th CPI, and 16th FOMC.
From a profit perspective, this phase is about "not losing"—frequent leveraged entries and exits in a sideways market are doomed. If you really want to capture the cycle dividend, wait for 76k defense confirmation or panic volume at 74k before scaling in; it’s more cost-effective than betting on direction now. ETH weekly close below 2438, don’t trust any calls claiming "the bottom has appeared." #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 #SEC拟更新转让代理规则，证券上链受关注 Before the non-farm payrolls, the BTC and ETH markets seem to be waiting for the referee's whistle
Today $BTC is around $77,000, and $ETH is around $2,400. Neither of the two major coins has given a particularly clear direction. The reason is simple: the market is waiting for the US employment data. With high US Treasury yields, high oil prices, and rising expectations of a rate hike in September, all trades revolve around the Federal Reserve, and the employment data is the key referee that will influence policy expectations next.
$BTC and $ETH will not react exactly the same to this data. Strong employment means inflation and rate hike pressures are harder to ease, which will suppress risk assets. Assets like ETH, which have more growth attributes, may suffer more; weak employment will lead the market to bet on policy easing, benefiting both BTC and ETH, but ETH may have greater elasticity because BTC absorbs allocation first, and ETH follows risk appetite.
Currently, $BTC's advantage is its mainline status. After falling below $80,000, it can still hold around $77,000, indicating ongoing support. $75,000 is the key defense, and $80,000 is the reconfirmation level. If the price hovers in this range before the non-farm payrolls, it’s not necessarily bad; it actually shows that neither side dares to heavily bet on a direction prematurely.
$ETH faces more obvious pressure. Whether it can hold around $2,400 will determine the market’s patience with it. Holding means it might rally after the data; breaking below means it will be treated as a weak asset in the short term. ETH doesn’t lack a story now, but it needs a macro window for funds to be willing to buy high beta again.
This article could be titled "Major Coins Waiting for the Referee." Before the referee blows the whistle, the more moves on the field, the more likely they are fake. BTC’s fake breakout above $80,000, ETH’s fake hold at $2,500, or sudden drops followed by quick recoveries could all be probes before the data. The real direction will most likely wait for employment and interest rate expectations to be repriced.
In trade guidance, I will emphasize two plans: if the data causes yields to fall, $BTC first targets reclaiming $80,000, and $ETH looks to break through $2,500 to $2,550; if the data pushes rate hike expectations higher, BTC looks to defend $75,000, and ETH watches whether $2,400 holds. Instead of fantasizing about outcomes, it’s better to write down conditions in advance.
Another detail today: crypto-related stocks are also diverging. Robinhood is favored due to diversified business and prediction markets, while Coinbase and Strategy follow the crypto cycle more closely. This shows the market isn’t avoiding crypto but is choosing which has better volatility resistance. The same applies within the crypto space: BTC, ETH, OKB, ARB, DOGE—each asset attracts different amounts of capital.
So the best move before the non-farm payrolls is not to bet on one side but to clearly mark key levels. If $BTC doesn’t break $75,000, bulls still have ground; if $ETH doesn’t break $2,400, the rally isn’t dead yet. Whoever first stands above the confirmation level after the data will be the place where the next wave of funds goes. The referee hasn’t blown the whistle yet, so don’t rush out of the arena.
This article can serve as today’s overall framework. $BTC judges whether the mainline has collapsed, $ETH judges whether risk appetite has recovered, and $OKB judges whether on-site trading continues. All violent fluctuations before the non-farm payrolls may be fake moves; only those that hold after the data are the true direction. Don’t rush the referee’s whistle; prepare your script first.
The risk is that volatility around the data will be messy. First short squeeze then long squeeze, or first long push then dump, are common. The closer to the key data, the more you shouldn’t treat the first candlestick as the answer. $BTC needs to watch the close, $ETH needs to see if $2,500 can hold, and don’t get carried away by minute-level emotions.
A truly capable trade guidance article doesn’t tell others which side to buy but lets them know which side is wrong and should exit. Before the non-farm payrolls, $BTC and $ETH are just like this: the direction hasn’t emerged yet, but the plan must come first. Plan before emotion to avoid getting slapped back and forth by the data-driven market.CRV currently has a circulation rate of 51.27%. When will it be fully circulated and listed?
Many people apply the unlocking logic of ordinary tokens to CRV, which is a huge misconception.
The shares of the CRV team, investors, and early users were all fully unlocked and released as early as August 2024, with no subsequent team chip selling pressure.
Nearly half of the tokens not yet in circulation are not locked chips but liquidity mining inflation rewards.
These decrease by 16% annually and are gradually minted and distributed to liquidity providers. According to the original emission model, it will take over two hundred years to reach the maximum total supply of 3.03 billion tokens, theoretically achieving 100% full circulation.
The high self-selected lock ratio of 68% you see is already circulating CRV, voluntarily locked by users into the veCRV contract to receive dividends and governance rights. This is voluntary holder locking, not project-side locking.
There is still new mining output every year, but fortunately, protocol fees are used to buy back and burn CRV, which can offset some inflation. The DAO can also vote to modify the mining release speed.Many people think that once "Kong Shen" closes a short position, he should stop, but I shorted again in the evening. Some immediately commented "face slap"—wrong. The few hours of being out of the market wasn't admitting defeat, it was waiting for the right cards: the daily bullish structure hasn't broken, so I won't short halfway down the mountain naked. When global central banks turn hawkish in unison, and oil prices climb back above $90 to ignite inflation expectations, when all the cards com$DOGE 判断一个加密资产能活多久，关键不在代码，而在社区。社区不死，币就不死——DOGE用三年时间验证了这句话。 上一轮牛市退潮后，大量项目的社群迅速归零：电报群沉寂、社交账号停更、持币地址持续流失，曾经热闹的叙事一夜之间无人再提。而Reddit的r/dogecoin却是另一番景象：460万成员没有散去，日常讨论、打赏文化与慈善传统延续至今，熊市反而沉淀出一批真正认同其精神的长期持有者。 这种韧性来自$DOGE 独特的社区基因。它诞生于一个玩笑，没有宏大愿景带来的预期落差，也没有复杂机制造成的理解门槛。打赏文化让参与变得轻松有趣，成员之间更像兴趣共同体，而非纯粹的利益同盟。利益驱动的社区随行情聚散，文化驱动的社区才能穿越周期。 对投资者而言，社区活跃度是比短期热度更可靠的观察指标。技术可以迭代，营销可以买来，唯有愿意在低谷期留下来的人无法伪造。DOGE的案例说明，去中心化资产的底层价值，最终取决于有多少人愿意长期与它站在一起。There are currently two support points:
* Yesterday, the US ADP only increased by 38,000, below the expected 47,000–48,000, indicating the job market is indeed cooling down.
* Tomorrow, the US non-farm payrolls are expected to be around 53,000–56,000; if the actual number is lower than expected, it usually strengthens the market's expectation of a looser Fed policy, which is generally bullish for ETH.
So my judgment:
ETH: 🟢 Bullish 60%｜🔴 Bearish 40%
But note, the market is already trading on "weaker employment," so even if non-farm payrolls are below expectations, there might be a "rise first → peak then fall" scenario HYPE is entering another unlocking window, ZEC is experiencing high-level turnover, and Nvidia is leading tech stocks to take a breather.
$HYPE's unlocking of tens of millions of tokens is approaching. The previous large-scale unlocking held up, indicating that platform revenue and buybacks indeed provided support. However, I still don't want to jump to conclusions this time; nominal unlocking does not mean all tokens enter the market. The real focus is on the amount claimed and transferred to exchanges; if the volume shrinks and stabilizes after landing, it actually proves the chips are solid.
$ZEC previously surged strongly on privacy narratives and the ZCSH launch, so high-level oscillation now is normal. The positive sentiment has shifted from speculation to actual capital realization. I am more concerned whether subsequent product funds can continue to increase; as long as trading volume gradually decreases during adjustments, it remains a strong turnover for now. Only a volume breakout requires caution for concentrated profit-taking withdrawals.
$BTC has basically been locked between 76,000 and 79,000 these days. On the first day of September, ETFs saw an outflow of $236 million, but the active investor cost line near 76,000 has temporarily absorbed the selling pressure. Without volume to reclaim 80,000, it continues to act as a box range. Only if it truly breaks below the cost line should we watch for accelerated bearish momentum.
$SOL continues to tug at the 100-dollar mark, ETF funds remain, and a trading format upgrade on the 9th will catalyze; $NVDA rose 3.2% last night, with Dell's AI server revenue surging again, reaffirming strong enterprise AI demand; $XAU rebounded about 0.5% today, supported by a retreat in the dollar and yields, but the probability of a rate hike in September remains at 62%. Friday's nonfarm payrolls will be the real test.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Looking at the market today, Bitcoin rebounded from 76,261 to 77,747, pulling back nearly 2% from yesterday's low. But looking at the other position, BTC peaked at 79,256 on September 1, then fell back all the way. Even today, reaching 77,900, it is still below the previous high. So 77,900–78,000 is the immediate level to recover, and above 78,400–78,650, there's still the area previously traded. The resistance here comes from the recent 4-hour candlestick, not a guaranteed magical level. Breaking above 78,000 during trading is certainly good, but being sold back right after the break, and having several consecutive candlesticks stuck above it, is quite different. The more useful question now is: on the next pullback, will there be still buying near 76,900–77,000? Several 4-hour candlesticks touched this area today. If it can't hold here, yesterday's 76,261 will be tested again. Liquidity has improved. Farside's latest data shows that after a net outflow of $236.5 million on September 1, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $101.1 million on September 2. But combined, the net outflow over these two days still amounts to $135.4 million. **Some funds came back to buy, but haven't made up for the outflows from the previous day yet. **Using a single day's data to say institutions are fully recovering is still a bit rushed. SOL's 100 and ETH's 2400 are not the same thing. SOL's rebound today deserves some credit. Yesterday's lowExchange BTC balances are still declining, with a net outflow of nearly 20,000 coins over seven days. However, whale addresses are quietly increasing their holdings, with positions of holders owning over 100 coins reaching a nearly three-month high. This indicates that smart money is accumulating, not selling.
But things are not that simple.
The inflow speed of stablecoins has clearly slowed down, with less than $500 million coming in over the past week, compared to tens of billions in previous months, showing a cooling sentiment. Funding rates have also dropped below 0.01%, bulls are no longer overly enthusiastic, and bears haven't gained an advantage either.
Many people see the increase in whale holdings and call for a bull run. But accumulation is a long-term strategy for whales, lacking short-term momentum to push prices up. The accumulation cycle for whales is often measured in months, during which time it may test your patience.
So the current market situation is: downward pressure with sufficient on-chain support, chips below 30,000 have been mostly absorbed; upward pressure lacks incremental funds on the spot market, and the futures long-short ratio remains around 1.1, with no one willing to be the first mover.
Most likely, the market will continue to oscillate within a range, and only after the consolidation will a direction be chosen.
For spot holdings, just maintain mainstream positions—$BTC, $ETH, $OKB—fundamentals are solid. Avoid contracts, especially heavy bets on breakouts in a choppy market, as being stopped out repeatedly drains your energy.
The real fear is not missing out, but impulsively entering and repeatedly stopping out, which damages your mindset and leads to real losses.
The above is purely personal review notes and does not constitute any trading advice; be responsible for your own decisions.
$BTC $ETH$BTC has not experienced a sharp drop despite multiple negative factors, showing strong resilience, but sideways movement without a drop does not mean a refusal to fall. Gold and U.S. stocks are weakening, U.S. Treasury yields are rising, oil prices have broken through 90, and overall macro risk appetite is contracting. At this stage, BTC is only temporarily holding its range, leaning more towards weak oscillation under liquidity games rather than actively strengthening.
There is a signal here that cannot be ignored: ETFs have already seen capital outflows, with large withdrawals from BlackRock's flagship products, indicating institutional funds are choosing to realize profits in phases. The price not falling further may only mean short-term selling pressure is temporarily exhausted; buying has not actively entered to push the market higher. This is a stalemate of existing funds, not sustained support from new capital.
Even if 76,000 holds temporarily, it does not guarantee a subsequent counterattack to 81,400. Once U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices continue to maintain high pressure, or ETF outflows continue to expand, this narrow range could be broken with volume at any time. The current resistance to decline looks more like a brief breathing window, not a confirmed reversal signal.
A true bullish opportunity cannot be proven by "not falling further" alone; it must be accompanied by capital inflows combined with marginal easing of macro conditions and a volume breakout above resistance to be considered a valid strengthening. For now, 76,000–80,000 should only be treated as an observation range, and one should not prematurely bet on a subsequent rebound. $SOL dropped more than 3% today, once again approaching the $100 mark. The logic behind this decline is actually quite clear: rising oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields have reignited market concerns about inflation and interest rates, prompting capital to reduce risk as a first reaction. BTC is relatively resilient, but high-beta assets like SOL, $ETH, and $DOGE are clearly under pressure, with profit-taking combined with leveraged liquidations naturally concentrating selling pressureThe core logic of CZ is not to teach us how to safely all in, but to tell us: qualified heavy positions require that you can afford to lose.
When he bet at 35 or 36 years old, he already had income ability and a family risk buffer; losing everything would only mean losing that investment principal, not destroying his entire life. But most ordinary people overlook a key point: just because you can afford to lose that money doesn't mean this bet is worth putting all your investable funds into.
These three soul-searching questions can only help you assess the bottom line of loss tolerance; they cannot determine whether the investment itself is worth heavy positioning. Even if losing everything doesn't affect your life, blindly all in will still bring huge emotional pressure, and one failure can consume your investment principal and mindset for years to come.
The truly rational approach is not to look for an opportunity to all in, but to manage position sizing well. Keep enough cash reserves to build positions in batches and control the maximum loss per trade.
Opportunities won't disappear, but once your principal suffers a large loss, even if you see the next bull market, you won't have enough chips to seize it. Staying at the table is never about waiting for a once-in-a-lifetime all-in chance to get rich, but about continuously having the flexible right to choose.
Heavy position ≠ all in; those who can control risk will go much further than those who dare to go all out in one shot.
Question: Do truly great investors rely on one all-in windfall, or on living long in the market?🔥$ETH September 3rd Counter-Trend｜Mainnet Fees Only 15 Cents, But Deflation Feels Like a Failed Diet
Today $ETH hovered between $2390–$2405 across sources: Bitget around $2404, Cryptoslate about $2403, Bitinfo average prices between $2383–$2389, down about 3.66% over 7 days but up 28.78% over 30 days, roughly 51% below the all-time high of $4953. According to the old script, it should say "Support at 2400, resistance at 2550," but looking at it from another angle is even funnier:
The mainnet is ridiculously cheap now: about 1.95 million daily transactions, around 970,000 active addresses, average fee $0.155, median fee $0.035, and transaction fees only account for 0.77% of block rewards. In other words, the network is quite busy, but the amount of ETH burned is as little as a dieter nibbling just two bites of a salad leaf—"on-chain prosperity" does not directly equal "deflation-driven price surge."
Staking is actually bottlenecked: data from the end of August shows validator activation backlog of about 36 days, over 2 million ETH queued for staking, and about $350,000 in daily rewards lost due to queuing. Institutions wanting to lock up assets for yield have to queue for a month first; no rush helps.
ETFs are buying but not blindly: on September 2nd, ETH spot ETFs saw about $17.91 million inflow in a single day, with inflows for 12–17 consecutive days and a 7-day total of about $522 million; on the same day, BTC ETFs actually had a net outflow of about $241 million. Capital seems to be shifting some "pure BTC beta" into "ETH staking + L2 applications." $ETH Three Friday Nonfarm Payroll Scenarios (Impacting BTC, SanDisk SNDK) 🤓
Scenario 1: Nonfarm Significantly Stronger Than Expected [Hawkish]
Employment data is hot, pushing up US Treasury yields and intensifying rate hike expectations.
BTC comes under pressure and weakens, prone to rapid declines; SanDisk, as a high-valuation growth stock, faces selling pressure and pulls back.
Market volatility is intense, not suitable for bottom-fishing against the trend.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm Meets Expectations [Neutral]
Data is close to market forecasts, with no significant change in interest rate expectations.
BTC maintains its original oscillation, with back-and-forth spikes washing out positions, making it difficult to break into a strong one-sided trend.
SanDisk continues to be restrained by US Treasury yields; the sector lacks clear direction, with the market remaining in a grinding state, awaiting further CPI guidance.
Scenario 3: Nonfarm Significantly Weaker Than Expected [Dovish]
Employment clearly cools, US Treasury yields decline, and rate cut expectations rise.
With mild weakness, BTC and SanDisk rebound and recover in sync.
⚠️ Extreme Risk: If data is so poor it signals an economic recession, it will trigger collective risk aversion, causing both asset types to sell off simultaneously; do not blindly chase longs.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Why do crypto traders have to worry about oil prices too? Saudi exports have dropped to a nine-year low, 😅
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
Everyone was waiting for the non-farm payrolls, but now crude oil is causing trouble again.
Bloomberg cited shipping tracking data showing Saudi observable crude oil exports in August dropped to about 3 million barrels per day, the lowest in at least nine years. The problem is that the Red Sea route, originally used to avoid the Strait of Hormuz risk, has also seen oil tankers attacked. The oil is there, but whether it can be safely transported out has become an issue.
On September 2, Brent crude closed at $95.63. This price really can’t be ignored by the crypto world.
It’s quite frustrating: if employment weakens, the market could have expected the Fed to ease; but with oil prices continuously rising, gasoline and transportation costs might push inflation up. Then, when the economy needs a breather, prices won’t cooperate, making rate cuts even harder to expect.
Of course, rising oil prices don’t necessarily mean BTC will fall that day, nor does it mean the Fed will definitely raise rates. What’s truly worrying is when oil prices rise and then stay high for a long time. A one-time spike and several weeks of high oil prices have very different impacts on inflation expectations.
So the key thing to watch in this news is how much exports can recover afterward. If ships can sail normally, supply concerns might ease. Just hearing “the situation is easing” honestly isn’t reassuring enough.
Sigh, trading crypto is getting harder and harder...The ETF capital flow on August 31 reveals an intriguing signal: whether the altcoin season has arrived is still undecided, but the logic of fund allocation is clearly quietly changing. On that day, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $216.7 million, with IBIT alone accounting for $205.9 million, followed by Ethereum recording $87.6 million, and ETHA contributing $59.9 million. In contrast, inflows for SOL and XRP were both below the ten-million-dollar level, while HYPE was almost flat.
While Bitcoin oscillated between $77,000 and $79,000, market sentiment tended to calm down, and funds began to be carefully selected rather than blindly scattered. What is more worth tracking now is the linkage between Ethereum ETF inflows and the ETH/BTC exchange rate, whether SOL can sustain price momentum with continuous net inflows, and the faint institutional presence behind XRP. The relative strength of HYPE and the ecological structure of OKB also provide micro perspectives for observing fund preferences. #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow Is Kimi's $50 billion valuation expensive? The key is whether the ARR can support a multiple above 20x. Moon's Dark Side is sprinting towards the Hong Kong stock market with a Pre-IPO target valuation of about $50 billion. Based on the market value and ARR multiples of peers MiniMax and Zhipu, Kimi's required ARR threshold is about $1.212 billion to be below Zhipu's valuation multiple, and $2.5 billion to approach MiniMax's 20x multiple. However, since Kimi disclosed $300 million ARR in June, although the release of K3 has brought several times sales growth, the company has not yet announced the latest absolute value. According to Dongcha Beating AI news, Moon's Dark Side (Kimi) is rushing to list in Hong Kong, with the latest Pre-IPO round target valuation of about $50 billion. Whether this valuation is reasonable needs to be compared horizontally with domestic AI large model companies already listed. As of September 3, MiniMax's total market value is about $16 billion, with August ARR exceeding $800 million, corresponding to a valuation multiple of less than 20x; Zhipu's total market value is about $66 billion, with August ARR of $1.6 billion, corresponding to about 41.25x. If Kimi goes public with a $50 billion valuation, its ARR only needs to exceed about $1.212 billion for the valuation multiple to be lower than Zhipu's; if ARR reaches $2.5 billion, it corresponds to 20x ARR, close to MiniMax. The last time Kimi clearly disclosed ARR was mid-June at $300 million. After releasing the K3 model in July, President Zhang Yutong said the enterprise ARR had increased several times and set a historical record for the largest single... 🚨 Bitcoin Update ‼️ The next 12 days could determine BTC's next move 🚨
Everyone is wondering if Bitcoin can maintain its strength after the August rally.
Now, it's not just about the charts. Two major catalysts are very close, and both could bring volatility to Bitcoin.
Let me explain.
1️⃣ The first catalyst is the US jobs report
Tomorrow, September 4, the US will release August nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate data.
This is important because the Federal Reserve is closely watching the labor market.
Yesterday, ADP showed only 38,000 jobs added in August, weaker than expected.
Why does this matter for Bitcoin?
If tomorrow's jobs data is also weak, the market might expect the Fed to be less hawkish on interest rates.
This could put pressure on US Treasury yields and the dollar, supporting risk assets like Bitcoin.
But if the jobs data is significantly stronger than expected, rate hike expectations could rise again, and BTC might face selling pressure.
Therefore, September 4 could bring intense two-way volatility.
2️⃣ The second catalyst is the CLARITY Act
The CLARITY Act is becoming a key topic in the US crypto space, and September 15 is a date traders are watching.
The Senate has scheduled a procedural vote on that day.
Why is this important?
Markets usually start pricing in major events before they happen.
If traders expect positive progress, Bitcoin could continue to gain support as September 15 approaches.
This is what we call:
"Buy the rumor, sell the news."
If BTC keeps rising before the vote, then after the event, we should be ready for profit-taking or a pullback.
This doesn't mean the uptrend is over.
It just means volatility might increase.
So now we have two important dates:
📅 September 4 — US jobs report
📅 September 15 — CLARITY Act procedural vote
That's why the next 12 days are crucial for Bitcoin.
Are you ready? $BTC $ETH $SOL Event
Friday's nonfarm payroll data is coming up soon; this is the last key employment report before the September FOMC meeting.
Basis
The ADP employment data came out a few days ago, showing an increase of only 38,000 jobs, less than the expected 47,000, indicating employment is starting to weaken. Interestingly, the market still has a 62.3% probability priced in for the Fed to raise rates in September. Despite the weaker data, the rate hike expectations have not yet declined, showing significant divergence. We are just waiting for Friday's nonfarm payrolls to set the tone.
Viewpoint
The market is currently stuck at this contradiction.
If Friday's nonfarm payrolls continue to be weak, with two consecutive weak employment reports, the market will gradually become bearish on rate hikes, which would be short-term bullish for BTC;
Conversely, if the nonfarm payrolls are strong again, rate hike expectations will heat up again, and the market will likely face short-term pressure.
Simply put, the key focus this week is Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which will largely determine the market direction before the FOMC meeting. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $AVGO saw through the earnings report; the report is positive, but why did the price drop? $SNDK $BTC
All positives lost, the end of positives is negative!
Three progressive layers
Fact misalignment: past exceeded expectations, future guidance is below optimistic expectations. Price first reacts to new information (guidance downgrade), then corrects — market trades on marginal changes, not absolute good or bad.
Market psychology: instinctive panic triggers selling, rational correction hedges "this quarter's excess absolute value" against "next quarter's gap absolute value"; if covered, it is defined as a safety cushion rather than a crash. Volatility is a race between emotion and calculation speed.
In-depth deduction: total gap smaller than core excess inevitably leads to: non-core business deceleration, valuation not pricing traditional risks, management actively lowering expectations.
Dasheng's view: defined as "core strength but slope slowing"; next day's opening determines the market's final consensus. #FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm #Earnings observer: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance #Saudi crude oil exports fall to 9-year low, oil prices soar The U.S. aims to become the "Crypto Capital," but the market remains stagnant despite favorable legislation.
According to reports, Paul Atkins, Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), stated in a Fox Business interview that the CLARITY Act is expected to pass this month.
This act is expected to clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, providing clearer rules for trading platforms, token issuance, and institutional allocations.
In the long term, it can reduce regulatory risks in the industry.
However, funds are hesitating to enter the market, and short-term large holders are actually reducing risk.
Garrett Jin closed 276 BTC long positions, profiting $210,000, still holding about $123 million in positions, seemingly taking profits along the way.
The selling pressure on ETH is even more apparent.
An institution transferred 39,500 ETH to multiple exchanges in one day, worth about $95 million, indicating a possible sale.
The mysterious ShapeShift whale moved 2,759 ETH to a new address but did not send them to exchanges.
The current market contradiction is: policy expectations are improving, but funds remain cautious.
The CLARITY Act addresses long-term rules; whether $BTC can break through $80,000 depends on ETF flows, the macro environment, and spot buying.
Policy can open the door for institutional entry, but only sustained inflows of real capital can turn the positive outlook into a continuous rise.
#SEC拟更新转让代理规则，证券上链受关注 Non-farm payroll data has not yet been released, but Bitcoin has already shown weakness, with the market revealing a tense feeling of paying "protection fees" in advance.
The latest JOLTS job openings remain at 7.3 million, indicating that the employment fundamentals have not collapsed; however, the previous non-farm report revised May and June data downward by a total of 103,000, which also shows that the labor market is far from strong. The data is stuck in the middle ground, and both bulls and bears dare not act rashly, only waiting quietly for Friday's "blind box" reveal.
The real risk lies in expectation mismatches: if the non-farm data unexpectedly comes in strong, U.S. Treasury yields will rise, and market concerns about a September rate hike will be quickly ignited; even if the data weakens significantly, the first reaction of funds may not necessarily be to flow into the crypto market, but more likely to shift toward safe havens first. Therefore, the ideal scenario is not that worse employment is better, but a gradual cooling with moderate employment growth, no rebound in hourly wages, and no sharp drop in the unemployment rate.
After the data release, it is recommended to first observe changes in hourly wages, then verify whether previous values have been revised downward again, and finally assess whether BTC can effectively absorb the first wave of selling pressure. If it quickly recovers after a dip, it indicates real buying interest; if it continues to stay low, it is not advisable to hastily declare that the bearish pressure is over. On data night, there is no need to rush to chase the first candlestick; quick hands often lose to volatility. Risk warning: market data may be delayed and subject to revisions, price fluctuations are intense, please control your positions rationally. $BTCThe deeper you play, the clearer it becomes: K-lines are just appearances, while on-chain data is the underlying color.
This morning, I glanced at several core on-chain data points and roughly got a sense:
$BTC exchange net flow turned negative, with outflows exceeding inflows in the past 48 hours. More importantly, Bitcoin addresses dormant for over a year have started moving, but not sending to exchanges; instead, they are transferring between wallets—most likely institutions are rotating holdings or migrating custody, not a sign of selling. Miner holding index remains stable at a low level, indicating little selling pressure.
Active address count has dropped noticeably, with the 7-day average down nearly 15% from the previous high, and on-chain transaction volume is shrinking. This suggests retail enthusiasm is waning, and the market currently lacks new stories or emotional triggers. Looking at the options market, short-term implied volatility is suppressed at a low level; big money is not pricing in a violent breakout.
So the current situation: to the downside, the liquidation map shows dense long liquidations below 56000, which is far away and unlikely to be touched in the short term; to the upside, massive sell orders are stacked between 59000-60000, and without new catalysts, it’s hard to clear them all at once. Both bulls and bears are waiting; whoever moves first will be passive.
Most likely, it will form a converging triangle, with volatility narrowing, waiting for a macro or news event to trigger a breakout.
Hold your spot positions and don’t move recklessly—liquidity leaders like $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB have solid on-chain fundamentals. Try to clear leveraged positions, especially near the end of a consolidation with frequent false breakouts, as stop-loss hunting back and forth is exhausting.
The above is just my personal market notes and does not constitute any investment advice; just be responsible for your own money.Japanese listed companies have sold off all altcoins, keeping only Bitcoin $BTC. Tokyo-listed Remixpoint has liquidated ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, cashing out $5.5 million and making a profit of $740,000. Now the treasury holds only 1,506 BTC. The last bull market emphasized diversified allocation; this time, the focus has shifted to concentrating bets on Bitcoin. The logic behind corporate coin hoarding is changing, and the "digital gold" narrative is back.$SOL Japanese company Remixpoint has cleared out ETH SOL XRP DOGE
Leaving only about fifteen hundred BTC on the books
It's like the board meeting ended with a direct show of hands
Voting for Satoshi Nakamoto
Not for smart contracts, and they even made a small profit that day
About 110 million yen
$ETH SOL XRP were all sold for profit
Only DOGE was sold at a loss
Dogecoin really remains the least favored in the treasury On the same day, other companies were still adding to Bitcoin
Smarter Web bought another thirty-five
DDC raised its holdings to over two thousand eight hundred in the first half of the year
While some emptied their baskets
Others kept piling gold into the treasury This is interesting
Public companies are finally starting to argue like coin holders
BTC is digital gold
ETH is a tech stock with Beta
Can be staked to earn interest
When the market turns bad, it's also the first to be liquidated The company treasury, should it hold ETH or not?
On one hand, earning interest looks smart
On the other, its volatility and poor financial reports make it the first to be disliked by the board
Is Remixpoint's move forward-looking
Or just an awkward style shift near the peak?
No one can say for sure now, but they spoke very frankly
Crypto treasury is not a basket of coins
It's a Bitcoin religion
The board voted
They voted for Satoshi Nakamoto
Not for smart contracts
$BTC The Crypto market entered the morning of 09/03 in a cautious state but has not completely lost its structure. $BTC is still fluctuating around the $77K range after facing pressure from the $80K mark, while $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, and many Altcoins continue to diverge. The most notable point right now is not a single bullish or bearish candle within a few hours, but the very rapid change in expectations for US monetary policy. The market is currently simultaneously monitoring 3 variables: Fed → employment data → oil and inflation. When these three factors appear together Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in August dropped to about 3 million barrels per day, marking the lowest level in at least 9 years. Tanker tracking data from Bloomberg, Vortexa, and Kpler all point to this figure. The direct cause is the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, with tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and the Houthis imposing blockades on Saudi vessels. Previously, Saudi Arabia relied on the East-West pipeline to export oil through the Red Sea's Yanbu port, reaching over 4 million barrels at one point. Now even this route is impacted, causing a significant overall decline in shipments. Oil prices reacted immediately, with Brent crude climbing back above $95, hitting a new high since late July. The market is beginning to reprice inflation and interest rate trajectories. Crypto traders should watch this: as oil prices rise, inflation expectations increase, the Federal Reserve's rate cut space is squeezed, and risk asset sentiment is likely to take a hit first.
$BTC and $ETH are sensitive to macro liquidity; if this kind of hard inflation source from oil prices persists, the funding environment will become more cautious. In the short term, it depends on whether other oil-producing countries can fill the supply gap and whether geopolitical tensions escalate further. The data is clear: low exports plus rising oil prices indicate a hardening macro environment. #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 Are Goldman Sachs and Citibank also coming to snatch jobs in the crypto space? 😅
#21 financial institutions plan to launch a US dollar stablecoin
This lineup is indeed quite significant. 21 financial institutions including Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and Fidelity plan to establish a new company in the second half of this year, aiming to launch a US dollar stablecoin by the first half of 2027 for cross-border payments and digital asset settlements. Note, this is still at the planning stage and the stablecoin has not been issued yet.
What I find most interesting about this is that they don’t have to start from scratch to find customers.
If a company already has an account with Citibank and does cross-border settlements, the bank can directly integrate stablecoin payments into the existing business, so the company might not even need to learn how to use exchanges first. If they can really achieve this, that’s where the banks’ strength lies.
But getting crypto players to swap out their USDT and USDC is another matter. If the trading venues, transfer convenience, and redemption processes don’t keep up, no matter how famous the name is, it won’t help.
So my judgment is that bank-backed stablecoins are more likely to first compete for corporate payment and institutional settlement clients, and in the short term, they won’t be able to push USDT out. Increased competition doesn’t necessarily mean existing stablecoins will lose their peg.
Don’t rush to call this a bullish sign for BTC either. If companies switch to stablecoins to pay for goods, that money might just circle back and be converted to dollars, not necessarily leading to buying crypto.
Banks want to make money from payments and settlements, while we hope for price increases. These two things really can’t be automatically equated.At 3 a.m., I stared at the screen. The BTC and ETH candlesticks looked like two quietly breathing whales, while the shadows of the knockoffs stretched longer and longer behind them. Have you ever thought that when everyone is waiting for the same signal, the market often gives an answer that no one is looking at? I've been less interested in news headlines lately. News is always half a beat late; what's really fast are changes in positions and funding rates. Those subtle signals hidden in contract data are more honest than any tweet. I observed BTC repeatedly testing the sideways range, but each time the depth of the dip shrank, indicating selling pressure is exhausting rather than buying is erupting—these two states have completely different market sentiment temperatures. ETH is much more interesting. The price hasn't moved much, but the open interest in perpetual contracts has quietly climbed, and funding rates have shifted from negative to flat. If a bullish candlestick appears with increased volume at this level, the momentum of short buying will suddenly loosen like a tightened clockwork. Sometimes, market sentiment isn't about who shouts loudly, but about who holds back the longest. - Bullish path: BTC stabilizes at the lower edge of the range, ETH starts driving ecosystem narratives, and funds will first flow to the mainstream with the highest beta, then spread to DeFi and infrastructure. - Bearish risk: If BTC breaks below the range and ETH weakens in sync, the derivatives market will first see a double sell-off between long and short, and sentiment recovery will take longer. What I really care about is that undiscussed corner. In the last cycle, before every major market start, there was always a sector shadowed by mainstream coinsLPs on Robinhood Chain, are they more profitable than chasing memes now?
Robinhood Chain has been live for two months, originally intended for tokenized stocks, but CASHCAT, PONS, and AI have pushed the market cap to around 100-200 million.
One address turned 220,000 principal into 4.7 million, profiting from two waves. PONS uses platform fees from token issuance to buy back and burn tokens; on August 30 alone, the protocol income was close to one million dollars.
Retail investors continuing PvP aren’t having it so easy, with about a 40% win rate and high Gas fees; a single floating profit might be eaten up by fees and failed transactions.
Smart money is changing tactics, no longer betting on the next 10x coin, but collecting toll fees from popular pools. High-fee pools like AI/WETH can reach daily APRs in the four digits.
Some set an 8% fee directly on new coin pools, with daily APRs over 2000%. Even stranger, AI pools with tokenized NVDA combine stocks and memes, locking about 17% of high-liquidity stock tokens in such pairs.
I think LPs are not earning stable interest this round, but meme turnover taxes. Pools are shallow, impermanent loss is large, and once the hype fades, fees drop immediately.
Going forward, either stock-meme pairs become a feature of this chain, or with reduced Gas and incentives, APRs will revert to normal.
Whether it can sustain depends on whether Robinhood’s own users truly come to trade, rather than just on-chain degens taxing each other.
DYOR BTC falls below $77,000, September market enters a critical observation period
At the start of September, $BTC continued its pullback, recently dropping below $77,000. In August, BTC rose about 25%, but after entering September, the market has clearly cooled down. Meanwhile, $ETH is currently around $2,400, with mainstream coins overall under pressure.
There are two signals worth noting in this round of pullback.
First, ETF funds are starting to weaken.
On September 1, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $236.5 million, with BlackRock IBIT outflowing about $201.2 million. Compared to the strong inflow of over $3 billion in August, there is a clear change in funds at the beginning of September.
Second, the Federal Reserve's expectations remain hawkish.
Currently, the market's expectation for a September rate hike is still around 66%, and the US 10-year Treasury yield recently approached 4.8%. If oil prices and inflation continue to stay high, risk assets may still face short-term pressure. From a technical perspective, I believe $77,000 is an important short-term observation level. If BTC can quickly reclaim $80,000, it indicates this drop may just be a normal correction after the rise; if it continues to fall below $77,000, caution is needed for further downward support seeking.
Key focuses going forward: ETF fund flows, US employment data, US Treasury yields, and whether BTC can firmly stand above $80,000 again.
The biggest opportunity in the market now is not guessing ups and downs, but waiting for funds to give direction.
$BTC $ETH $BNBOil surges to 90, gold rises to 4434, BTC only up 0.5%: Digital gold once again fails to keep up
Looking at today's market data together, it's quite disheartening.
WTI crude oil remains above $90, gold hits 4434, up 1.27% intraday; $BTC only rises about 0.49% near 77634, $ETH up 0.61% near 2404.
Every time geopolitical tensions rise, someone shouts "digital gold should perform now." But this time, the market first bought physical gold, and BTC just caught a breather.
The reason is not complicated. When oil prices rise, the market's first reaction is not risk aversion, but whether inflation will return and if interest rates will be harder to cut. Gold benefits from risk aversion and credit anxiety; BTC still carries the label of a high-volatility risk asset, so when interest rate expectations tighten, it gets suppressed first.
So I’m not chasing BTC just because oil prices are rising.
BTC needs to reclaim the intraday high of 77876 today to show that there is capital willing to continue buying; if it can’t, the support at 76204 still needs to be defended. Same for ETH, if 2429 is not reclaimed, don’t rush to treat 2400 as a sign of strength.
The phrase "digital gold" is shouted by everyone when the market is good. The real test is when oil prices, interest rates, and risk appetite all clash simultaneously—can it really rise?
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 $SOL vs $HYPE, comparison of two popular high-volatility assets
Latest data
$SOL current price 100.35, public chain ecosystem remains active, DEX trading volume stays high; HYPE current price 79.4, derivative chain trading revenue continues to hit new highs. Market cap $BTC 77637.
Market consensus
Bullish on SOL: leading high-performance public chain, supported by DeFi and Meme ecosystems, strong bull market elasticity, inflation reduction proposal further improves token model; cautious views note occasional network congestion, large pullbacks during market downturns.
Bullish on HYPE: dark horse in on-chain order book derivatives sector, protocol has real fee income, token captures revenue; cautious views highlight intense competition in the sector, trading volume decline after hype fades will directly impact valuation.
Underlying logic analysis
SOL is a base asset of the public chain, profiting from ecosystem growth, price highly dependent on on-chain users and overall crypto market sentiment; HYPE belongs to vertical trading sector, profits come from real trading fees, more sensitive to contract trading market conditions. Both are high-volatility assets prone to large swings during market fluctuations.
Personal view (personal preference for a gradual bull market return, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
Optimistic about sector logic but not suitable for chasing highs. SOL is suitable as a base holding in public chain to play ecosystem dividends; HYPE requires continuous monitoring of trading volume data, consider buying on pullbacks, avoid heavy positions at highs. Only one last piece of the puzzle remains before the September FOMC.
August ADP private employment increased by only 38,000, below the expected 47,000, marking the slowest growth since January. The Beige Book also reported that 10 out of 12 districts showed only moderate growth, with employment growth slowing down.
However, the market still prices in a 62.3% chance of a rate hike in September. On the inflation front, core PCE has stuck at 3.3% for two consecutive months, with 54% of the 178 PCE components showing year-over-year increases above 3%, compared to 47% a year ago — the breadth of price increases is expanding, not narrowing.
This Friday at 8:30 PM, the August nonfarm payrolls report will be the final piece before the FOMC. The market expects an increase of about 58,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. July’s nonfarm payrolls were down by 23,000; whether August can recover will determine if the September rate hike is "a done deal" or "up for reconsideration."
Regarding Bitcoin $BTC, the 77,000-78,000 range is waiting for the nonfarm payrolls data. The fact that the rate hike probability is held above 60% itself represents a short-term ceiling. The verdict will be revealed Friday night. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $AVGO Broadcom's Q3 earnings report missed expectations and plunged 4.5%. It then violently rebounded during the 5 PM earnings call. The main reasons are as follows.
On the surface, the earnings numbers fell short of expectations, causing a sell-off after hours; however, the call provided a more critical long-term anchor: AI networking/custom acceleration and experience-related businesses showed significant growth, with QAI revenue reaching $21.7 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, and the full-year AI-related revenue growth was also revised upward. Management set AI semiconductor revenue targets for 2027 and 2028 at approximately $115 billion and $230 billion respectively, more aggressive than the previous conservative "$100 billion+" guidance, prompting the market to immediately reprice.
In short, Broadcom is now trading not just on single-quarter gross margin/order momentum, but on its position in the AI infrastructure chain: ASIC customization, switching/networking, and VMware software collaboration all benefit from cloud providers' capital expenditures. Short-term earnings expectations caused volatility, but the long-term guidance brought sentiment back.
For related assets, AVGO stabilizing is favorable for AI computing power chain risk appetite, but the crypto side does not map directly linearly; it still depends on BTC/ETH market liquidity and Nasdaq futures. For individual stocks/related contracts, be cautious about heavy positions before volatility settles after earnings.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Oil surges to 90, gold rises to 4434, BTC only up 0.5%: Digital gold once again fails to keep up
Looking at today's market data together, it's quite disheartening.
WTI crude oil remains above $90, gold hits 4434, up 1.27% intraday; $BTC only rises about 0.49% near 77634, $ETH up 0.61% near 2404.
Every time geopolitical tensions rise, someone shouts "digital gold should perform now." But this time, the market first bought physical gold, and BTC just caught a breather.
The reason is not complicated. When oil prices rise, the market's first reaction is not risk aversion, but whether inflation will return and if interest rates will be harder to cut. Gold benefits from risk aversion and credit anxiety; BTC still carries the label of a high-volatility risk asset, so when interest rate expectations tighten, it gets suppressed first.
So I’m not chasing BTC just because oil prices are rising.
BTC needs to reclaim the intraday high of 77876 today to show that there is capital willing to continue buying; if it can’t, the support at 76204 still needs to be defended. Same for ETH, if 2429 is not reclaimed, don’t rush to treat 2400 as a sign of strength.
The phrase "digital gold" is shouted by everyone when the market is good. The real test is when oil prices, interest rates, and risk appetite all clash simultaneously—can it really rise?
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 $USELESS The brothers in the group told me the platform took action, freezing the accounts manipulating funds. Brothers, once we profit, we withdraw; also, do not short, protect the profits, and prepare for the next coin [Crypto Script]
#FOMC last data set before the meeting: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday
I'm Script Bro, the last piece of the employment puzzle before the FOMC is out, and the market is now conflicted again—what matters more, inflation or employment?
Recent data basically shows that U.S. employment is cooling down. ADP new jobs are significantly below expectations, and the Beige Book also shows hiring slowing in most regions, indicating that the impact of high interest rates on the economy is gradually showing.
But on the other hand, inflation hasn't fully surrendered; core PCE remains above the Fed's target. So the market is very conflicted now—on one side, weaker employment suggests the Fed should start cutting rates, on the other side, concerns that inflation hasn't come down and the Fed's hawkish stance make the market cautious.
For BTC, the key now is the Nonfarm Payrolls. If employment continues to weaken, rate cut expectations will rise, putting pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, benefiting risk assets including BTC. But if Nonfarm Payrolls show strength again, the market may trade "higher rates for longer" again, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin.
Script Bro thinks the market is waiting for the last card. Employment is starting to loosen, but inflation is still holding strong. How the September FOMC moves may be decided by the Nonfarm Payrolls.
Do you think Nonfarm Payrolls will boost rate cut expectations or cool the market again? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $SOL Short-term bearish bias, mid-term policy game catalysts for $BTC
Global bond yields soar to 2008 crisis levels — the core macro downside
Impact path: Bond yields surge → risk-free rates rise → risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) face valuation pressure → funds withdraw from high-risk assets like ETH
Transmission logic: This is a systemic suppression of the pricing model for all risk assets. ETH, as a high-beta crypto asset, is far more sensitive to liquidity tightening than traditional stocks. Institutions reduce holdings of high-volatility assets first when yields are shocked.
Price impact assessment: Direct downward pressure, currently around $2,402 lacks macro buying support.
Timeliness: Continuous pressure expected over the next 24-72 hours, this is the core contradiction the market is currently digesting.
Polymarket CLARITY Act 15% probability: Indicates extremely low market confidence in significant short-term policy benefits, lacking core catalysts for new capital inflow.
SEC Chair’s high-profile statements vs. low probability in prediction markets: There is a clear expectation split. If the SEC can mobilize administrative resources to push the agenda, prediction markets may be underestimating the probability of passage. But there is also a possibility—the SEC Chair’s statements are "expectation management" aimed at calming the market.
After $369M liquidation: Leverage has been partially cleaned up, market structure is healthier than before the liquidation, further sharp declines require new macro catalysts.The current market is influenced by two conflicting narratives. The aftereffects of the hawkish speeches by Fed officials have not faded; the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September is 58%, and the two-year US Treasury yield remains high, with elevated interest rates suppressing risk assets. This week's ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls will directly reshape rate hike expectations and are the biggest short-term variables.
Tensions in the Middle East continue, with Brent crude oil returning to $90. Rising oil prices push inflation higher, putting pressure on the market, but geopolitical turmoil strengthens BTC's narrative as a non-sovereign asset. The opposing forces cancel each other out, resulting in a market that neither rises significantly nor falls deeply.
US stocks closed lower intraday but ended August with a monthly gain; tech stocks show clear divergence. The medium- to long-term benefits of Charles Schwab opening up currency options remain, but they no longer stimulate short-term surges. Now, it is more about capital competition within the market.
My judgment: The medium-term major trend remains intact, but the market rhythm has shifted, with consolidation becoming the main theme. Volatility will remain high before the Nonfarm Payrolls release; leverage must be strictly controlled to manage risk, and patience is required to wait for clear signals from key data. $BTC $ETH $USELESS Quickly short it secretly! OKEx official is preparing to restrict withdrawals for large users of this coin$SOL dropped more than 3% today, once again approaching the $100 mark.
The logic behind this decline is actually quite clear: rising oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields have reignited market concerns about inflation and interest rates, prompting capital to reduce risk as a first reaction.
BTC is relatively resilient, but high-beta assets like SOL, $ETH, and $DOGE are clearly under pressure, with profit-taking combined with leveraged liquidations naturally concentrating selling pressure.
So, I don't currently believe there is a problem with the Solana ecosystem itself; it seems more like a risk release triggered by macroeconomic disturbances.
SOL itself is a double-edged sword. When market sentiment is good, on-chain liquidity and Meme popularity heat up, and it often rises the fastest; but once risk appetite declines, the speed of capital withdrawal is equally rapid.
The key now is to see if the $100 level can hold.
If it stabilizes on low volume, we can continue to observe; if it breaks down on high volume, don't rush to catch the falling knife.
My approach is still to wait for macro disturbances to subside before looking for more comfortable opportunities to add positions.
In a volatile market, preserving principal is always more important than chasing a rebound. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 One earnings night, two very different verdicts on the AI trade.
Broadcom beat on revenue and adjusted EPS, with revenue up 86% to $29.6B and AI semiconductor sales more than tripling to $16.7B. But its $34.8B Q4 revenue guide landed roughly in line with Street expectations, and shares briefly fell more than 6% in early after-hours trading before paring most of the decline.
The irony: Broadcom still expects Q4 AI semiconductor revenue of $21.7B, up 236% and equal to roughly 62% of total guidance. Management also expects AI revenue of about $115B in FY27 and $230B in FY28.
Snowflake told the opposite story. Product revenue rose 37% to $1.49B, marking a third straight quarter of accelerating growth. Full-year product revenue guidance increased to $6.07B, and shares jumped more than 21% after hours.
· CoCo reached 9,100 accounts, adding 2,000+ this quarter
· CoWork expanded to 5,800 accounts, up nearly 11% sequentially
· Remaining performance obligations rose 30% to $9B
· Non-GAAP operating margin guidance increased from 13.5% to 14.5%, showing improving operating leverage
Add Dell's results from the prior night: it booked $60.9B in AI server orders, raised its AI server revenue outlook from $60B to $74B, and exited the quarter with a $95B backlog.
The pattern is clear: AI demand is spreading from chips to servers, data cloud and software. But AI exposure alone may no longer be enough. The market is increasingly rewarding acceleration against already-high expectations.
Beat without enough upside, and a stock can still sell off. Beat and raise, and the market may reprice.
Crypto markets know the same tension: a narrative can weaken before growth disappears, simply because the pace starts slowing.
What matters more for AI stocks now: absolute growth or the pace of acceleration?
#AVGODipsSNOWPops $xAVGO $xSNOW $xDELL AI demand is spreading from chips to software, with Broadcom and Snowflake's earnings reports each surpassing the last. Snowflake surged 21% after hours, with product revenue up 37% year-over-year, and the number of accounts using the AI-assisted coding tool CoCo reaching 9,100, indicating that AI applications in enterprises are shifting from trial to regular productivity tools.
Broadcom's performance was even more explosive, with Q3 revenue hitting $29.5 billion, exceeding expectations. AI semiconductors contributed $16.7 billion, and the CEO boldly predicted AI chip revenue could reach $115 billion in fiscal 2027, a figure that further raised market expectations for AI computing power. However, the Q4 overall revenue guidance was slightly below analyst forecasts, causing the stock to drop as much as 6% after hours before narrowing losses.
Dell also rose 7%, with AI server orders continuing to accumulate. The entire AI chain—from chips to servers to software and cloud data—is being driven by demand, but the market's expectations for delivery speed are also increasing. Broadcom's Q4 guidance falling short is a signal that when expectations are set too high, even a slight miss can lead to a sell-off.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$DELL $SNOW 📈🛫 Let me start with the conclusion: I'm bearish!
Why? Because regardless of how the non-farm payroll data turns out this Friday, the rate hike blade hasn't landed yet.
ADP is only 38,000, the Beige Book reports moderate growth in 10 districts, the data is indeed cooling down. But the rate hike probability is still stuck at 62%, core PCE is stuck at 3.3%, and more than half of the 178 sub-items are still rising, meaning the inflation breadth is expanding. Oil prices remain high, and long-term interest rates won't come down. Wash has already locked in the inflation target; he's focused on inflation, not employment. Even if the data is bad, he can still say "inflation is still at 3.3%, we need to keep observing."
Non-farm payroll expectations are an increase of 58,000 to 80,000, with the previous value at -23,000. If it's below 50,000, the rate hike probability will fall, and BTC might bounce in the short term, but after the bounce, it will likely be pressured back by macro expectations. If it's above 80,000, the rate hike probability will continue to rise, and BTC will be directly pressured. No matter which way it goes, as long as US Treasury yields keep rising and rate hike expectations haven't fully faded, BTC will find it hard to truly stabilize. So I'm bearish. What do you think? Feel free to share with Xiaomeng, see you in the comments! $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 @OKX星球 A particularly face-slapping scene for the "digital gold" narrative tonight: Shanghai gold rose 2% in one day, silver rose over 1%, crude oil climbed back above $90 — solid anti-inflation assets all strengthening together; meanwhile, $BTC is wilting almost motionless. Everyone says Bitcoin is digital gold, but whenever real inflation hits and oil prices reignite rate hike expectations, the funds vote with their feet for real gold and silver, not it. The reason is easy to understand — during a rate hike cycle, risk assets that generate no cash flow and have high volatility get drained first. Stop labeling crypto as "safe haven"; its current identity is a high-volatility risk asset, living at the mercy of liquidity. Do you think it can still retell the safe haven story this round?This coin currently carries a very high risk, and its holding value mainly depends on what type of investor you are.**
**Current fundamentals (as of the end of August 2026):**
- Price is about **$0.025-0.026**, down over **99%** from the all-time high of $6.47
- Market cap is about **$32 million**, ranking outside the top 500 in the crypto market
- 24-hour trading volume is only at the **$100,000 to $1 million** level, with very poor liquidity
**Key risk points to pay special attention to:**
1. **Recent security incident:** In early September, Core DAO experienced a validator reward vulnerability, where a few nodes excessively minted tokens. The project initiated an emergency hard fork to fix this, and several exchanges temporarily suspended CORE deposits and withdrawals. Although the official statement assures user asset safety, the total amount of excess minting has not been disclosed, creating supply uncertainty in the market.
2. **Long-term selling pressure on tokens:** Currently, only about 51-60% of tokens are circulating. Team, private sale, and early mining tokens are still unlocking in batches, which will continue to suppress the price.
3. **Highly dependent on Bitcoin market trends:** CORE has a correlation of 0.88 with Bitcoin’s price movement. If Bitcoin enters a bear market, CORE’s decline will be even greater.
4. **Intense competition:** In the BTCFi sector, competitors like Stacks, Babylon, and Rootstock exist. Core lags behind leading projects in terms of locked value and ecosystem activity.
**However, there are some positive factors:**
- The project is shifting from mining subsidies to a "real revenue buyback and burn" model. If products like SatPay and AMP succeed, theoretically a deflationary loop can be formed.
- Bitcoin staking ETP has been listed on the London Stock Exchange, opening some compliant channels.
- Mining output will be reduced by 17% in 2026, tightening supply.
**My advice to you:**
- If you bought just following the trend and your position is small, considering poor liquidity, heavy selling pressure, and recent security incidents, **the cost-effectiveness of continuing to hold is indeed low**. Gradually reducing your position during rebounds might be a safer choice.
- If your position is large, it’s not recommended to cut losses all at once. You can reduce your position in batches to keep risk within a tolerable range.
- If you are a long-term bullish investor in the BTCFi sector and willing to take high risks, you can keep a small position to observe, but do not increase your holdings.
**One last reminder:** Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and small-cap coins like CORE carry a non-negligible risk of going to zero. The above is just an objective summary of information and does not constitute investment advice. The final decision should be based on your own risk tolerance. What proportion of your total assets does your current Core position roughly represent? This information will affect the specific advice I give you.