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📊 $SKHYNIX Contract Liquidation Express (September 3)
Bears dominated all day, with leverage collapsing stepwise from an extreme peak of 1011x down to 8x — direction highly consistent but momentum continuously fading, with concentration skewed indicating most liquidations occurred within a 12-hour window.
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $2,257.65 $2,257.65 $0
4 hours $47,200 $47,100 $46.63
12 hours $881,500 $812,100 $69,400
24 hours $1,335,600 $1,187,300 $148,300
In 1 hour, bears extremely dominated, with long liquidations at $2,257.65 and shorts at 0; in 4 hours, bears crushed with 1011x leverage, volume soaring to $47,200; in 12 hours, bears controlled moderately at 11.7x leverage, volume exploded to $881,500; in 24 hours, bears closed at 8x leverage, with long liquidations at $1,187,300 versus shorts at $148,300, totaling $1,335,600 in liquidations. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 66% of the 24-hour total, showing a moderately high concentration. Leverage trajectory: extreme → 1011x → 11.7x → 8x, showing continuous exhaustion. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; direction is clear but momentum has sharply declined from the extreme peak, avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 3
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Nonfarm payroll data is the last piece before the September rate hike, with AI earnings and on-chain revenue narratives providing new market pricing anchors.
📊 Nonfarm Preview: Inflation remains the main character, employment is just the "appetizer"
US August nonfarm payrolls release at 8:30 PM Friday. Bank of America views nonfarm as just the "appetizer" — CPI remains the key determinant for the September rate hike. Fed's Waller clearly states summer CPI has declined but "underlying inflation trends have not improved." Without a significant unexpected drop in employment, Waller must deliver a rate hike in September or face credibility risk.
🖥️ Broadcom and Snowflake: AI hardware and software side by side, market reactions vastly different
Broadcom Q3 revenue $29.591 billion, +86% YoY; AI semiconductor $16.7 billion, +221% YoY. Fiscal 2028 AI revenue target $230 billion, but Q4 guidance slightly below expectations, shares fell over 6% after hours. Snowflake revenue $1.547 billion, +35%, accelerating for three consecutive quarters; AI programming assistant CoCo has 9,100 customer accounts, shares surged over 23% after hours.
⛓️ Robinhood Chain Volume Surge: ARB soars 30% in one day due to "platform tax" narrative
ARB rose nearly 30% in one day, driven by Robinhood Chain's daily on-chain transaction revenue exceeding $2 million, with 10% net protocol revenue returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem, annualized revenue about $73 million. ARB shifts from an L2 bet to an actual income-linked asset.
💎 Summary
Nonfarm data is the last piece before the September rate hike, but CPI is the true decider; Broadcom's $29.5 billion revenue proves AI hardware is still booming, though the market cannot tolerate a 1% guidance miss; Snowflake's three consecutive quarters of accelerating growth prove AI software is delivering returns; ARB's 30% surge marks on-chain revenue narrative becoming a new dimension in crypto asset pricing. SKHYNIX liquidation data shows bears controlled all day, leverage collapsing from an extreme 1011x peak down to 8x at close, direction clear but momentum severely lacking. 66% concentration indicates most liquidations were released within a 12-hour window. Before nonfarm data lands, bears still control but momentum has greatly faded; the big direction depends on Friday's data. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Tomorrow night at 20:30, the non-farm payroll data will be released. I saw a few friends asking about it, so I'll give everyone a detailed analysis. #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: this Friday's non-farm payroll
The current market consensus is around 55,000. Personally, I think the data will be relatively weak, estimated around 35,000. Because looking at other data now, everything is too weak, there's nothing strong.
(1) So if the number is less than 40,000, that would be considered a bombshell, and the rate hike should be postponed until October.
I estimate the probability at about 40%. Because in July, the expectation was 80,000, but the actual was -23,000, a difference of 100,000. So it feels like the market forecast is not very accurate and is optimistic.
(2) If it's between 40,000 and 80,000, then it will be a smooth pass. Whether to raise rates or not depends on the CPI data and the Fed's attitude. I estimate the probability at 35%.
At that time, they should also consider changes in hourly wages comprehensively, after all, Warsh cares about inflation and prices.
(3) If it's above 80,000, then a rate hike is basically certain, and $BTC might directly fall below 75,000. I estimate the probability at 25%.
So how to operate specific positions:
(1) BTC has already priced in half of the possible rate hike. So the variables are quite large; I suggest not using leverage to bet on one side.
(2) $OKB is a high-value and high-beta asset; everyone can wait for a golden dip and aggressively add positions when it drops.
(3) Altcoins overall: if the non-farm payroll bombs, you can focus on altcoins; their rebound will be the strongest, with DOGE, $ENA, and other coins as top picks.Waller is starting to soften his stance, signaling a policy turning point.
Let's first see what he actually said. Inflation finally shows signs of easing, CPI is expected to remain at a reasonable level, and he is willing to wait patiently and observe — the definition of "overheating" is left to the market.
The entire set of remarks is converging in the same direction, clearly distancing from Waller's previously tough tone on rate hikes.
Back to the market, BTC is fluctuating around 77800, ETH above 2400, with the overall trend in a phase where rate hike expectations are loosening but not yet fully reversed.
If inflation truly continues to decline, rate hikes lose their core supporting rationale.
As a key member of the Federal Reserve, Waller's remarks send a very clear signal: they are also watching the data and waiting for further CPI confirmation, but as long as the trend doesn't reverse, the tightening stance is hard to maintain.
The trading logic has changed. Now, it's not enough to just focus on the probability of rate hikes; attention must also be paid to how far in advance the market prices in a complete reversal of rate hike expectations.
The current prices of BTC and ETH still reflect concerns about rate hikes, but if Waller's logic becomes the mainstream narrative, expectations of peak interest rates will start earlier than the actual implementation of rate hikes. The direction is bullish, awaiting further CPI confirmation.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 South Korea's state-owned electric utility Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) recently proposed to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix that the two companies prepay a total of 25 trillion won (approximately $18.4 billion) in electricity fees over the next five years. The funds raised will be used to build a power grid supporting the semiconductor cluster.
According to media reports on Thursday local time, KEPCO proposed that the two companies prepay a combined 25 trillion won in electricity fees, with Samsung Electronics required to prepay 20 trillion won (about $14.7 billion) and SK Hynix 5 trillion won (about $3.7 billion).
The calculation premise for this amount is that the annual electricity fees for the two companies from 2027 to 2031 will remain the same as last year. Last year, Samsung Electronics paid 4.1 trillion won in electricity fees, and SK Hynix paid 900 billion won.
Prepayment of electricity fees is an existing mechanism KEPCO offers to users, allowing them to pay in advance and earn interest. The difference now is that KEPCO is considering adding special terms to transform this service into a large-scale financing channel.
According to reports, KEPCO has offered the two companies an interest rate higher than the two-year government bond yield and is discussing settling interest by offsetting electricity fees every six months instead of paying cash. On Thursday, the yield on South Korea's two-year government bonds closed at 3.722%.
The report states that KEPCO confirmed the proposal but said that whether the companies agree, the interest rate level, prepayment amount, and prepayment period have not yet been finalized. According to industry insiders, the two companies are currently studying this proposal. $SAMSUNG $SKHY AI has no bubble, but I think many "AI stocks" are already selling a bubble.
Recently, as long as a company's name is related to AI, the market is willing to give a few extra points of imagination.
But I increasingly feel:
The AI industry has no bubble, but that doesn't mean all AI stocks are worth their current prices.
I still have a long-term optimistic view on AI.
Computing power, data centers, chips, cloud services, electricity — in the next few years, capital expenditures related to AI will most likely continue.
But the problem is——
Good company ≠ good price.
Especially now when the market talks about AI, many times it’s no longer about "how much money this company can make," but about "how big the next story can be."
At least it’s truly selling shovels and has already turned AI into real revenue and profit.
What worries me more are the second-tier and third-tier companies whose valuations have skyrocketed after being labeled AI.
The AI industry will definitely produce a batch of super companies in the end.
But it will also leave behind many:
People who chose the right direction, invested in good companies, but still lost money on the stocks.
The internet changed the world in 2000, that’s true.
But those who bought internet stocks at high prices back then also suffered heavy losses.
So if I had to choose now:
I’d rather pay a bit more for companies that can truly make money from AI than pay less to bet on the "potential next Nvidia" story.
$NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL $META The most terrifying and hardest barrier for beginners trading BTC is the rivet effect. Whether it's your single trade profit, your exchange balance, or even your total assets, none can escape the rivet effect. When your account balance has peaked at 10,000 during this period, whether in profit or loss, you will treat 10,000 as a measuring stick. When above 10,000, you operate more easily and take more risks; when below 10,000, you become nervous, hesitate to place orders, or think about quickly The probability of a Fed rate hike in September drops to 60.4%, market reduces tightening bets On September 3, after Fed Governor Waller stated that inflation had shown signs of improvement, the market quickly reduced bets on further rate hikes. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September is now 60.4%, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for September 26. This shift in market expectations was mainly triggered by Fed Governor Waller's latest statements. Waller pointed out that inflation is showing signs of improvement, a statement interpreted by the market as a dovish signal, directly prompting traders to lower their pricing for a rate hike at the September meeting, lowering the probability to 60.4%. As a core member of the Fed's decision-making team, Waller's public statements have historically had a strong guiding effect on market expectations, and shifts often signal subtle shifts in policy stance. There are still several weeks until the September 26 FOMC meeting, during which key data such as inflation and employment will continue to influence final probability volatility. For risk assets, interest rate expectations are a core variable for short-term pricing: cooling rate hike expectations usually mean marginal easing of financial conditions and easing liquidity pressures, which is why the crypto market and US stocks have been highly sensitive to Fed statements in recent years. Going forward, attention should be paid to CPI, nonfarm payroll data, and more statements from Fed officials before mid-September; any data that exceeds expectations could cause probability to swing sharply again. Market Impact: Indirect Benefit: Crypto Market - BTC (Bitcoin): Reduced rate hike bets signal cooling tightening expectations,#Gold ETF increased holdings by nearly 10 tons, options volatility draws attention
Gold is getting stronger and stronger this round.
Central banks are adjusting their portfolios, ETFs are accumulating, and both point to the same direction — preparing for uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs also added that the behavior of gold options market makers may amplify buying during rallies and exacerbate drawdowns during declines. In plain terms, gold's rise could be stronger than expected.
What does this have to do with crypto? Two points.
First, the 90-day correlation between gold and Bitcoin has exceeded 50%. The simultaneous inflow into ETFs on both sides indicates the market is increasing allocation to non-sovereign assets. If gold continues to attract capital, Bitcoin is very likely to benefit.
Second, the Dutch central bank moved 86 tons of gold from the US to London, effectively shifting assets out of the dollar system. When sovereign institutions start making such adjustments, the long-term logic for non-sovereign assets only strengthens.
What are your thoughts?
$BTC $XAUT This wave is not a "confirmed reversal," but a combination of a short squeeze tail wave and a macro trigger. BTC surged from 64,000 to 79,500 (the high on 8/21), ETH pushed above 2400+, but since 8/23 it has started to pull back from the highs, with 80% of long positions liquidated in 24h (880 million across the network) — indicating that the chasing bulls are being shaken out. Driver breakdown: Long-term US Treasury yields falling + White House summit expectations + forced liquidation of short History has already given the answer: high-dividend blue-chip stocks will become the top choice for funds to hedge risks
The Schwab US Dividend Stock ETF is a typical representative of this type of strategy. Among its top ten holdings, the weight of Cola is approximately 4.2%, making it one of the core allocation targets. The value of such targets will be repriced in terms of cash flow certainty when the AI tide recedes, hedging against the valuation bubble of AI Gold shows strong upward momentum on the 1-hour chart, successfully breaking through the 4400 level, reaching a high of 4482, with short-term bullish momentum clearly released.
Previously, after testing the 4390‑4400 support zone and stabilizing, it rebounded, with the market steadily climbing, indicating that the bulls still dominate the rhythm.
Currently, the price is around 4470, showing a continuation of strength, but it is approaching the previous high, so attention should be paid to whether the 4480‑4500 range can be effectively broken.
If volume continues to increase and breaks above, bulls can target 4500‑4520; if a long upper shadow or stagnation appears at the high, a technical correction should be guarded against.
The key support below has moved up to 4440‑4420; as long as a pullback does not break this range, the strong structure is expected to continue. $XAU #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 📊 $SPCX Contract Liquidation Express (September 3)
Bears crushed the start with 52x leverage, bulls mildly reversed with 1.57x in 4 hours, bears extremely crushed with 48x in 12 hours, bulls slightly reversed with 1.43x at 24 hours close — direction changed four times, W-shaped oscillation entered balanced tug-of-war, very low concentration shows liquidations were almost entirely released at the tail end
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $755.92 $14.10 $741.82
4 hours $3,220.16 $1,968.22 $1,251.94
12 hours $107,400 $2,189.19 $105,200
24 hours $1,064,800 $627,600 $437,200
1-hour bears crushed extremely with 52x leverage, volume $755.92; 4-hour bulls mildly reversed with 1.57x leverage, volume $3,220; 12-hour bears crushed extremely with 48x leverage, volume $107,400; 24-hour bulls closed with 1.43x leverage, liquidation $627,600 vs. bears $437,200, total liquidation $1,064,800. 12-hour liquidation accounts for 10.1% of 24-hour total, very low concentration — liquidations were almost entirely released at the tail end. Leverage trajectory: bears 52x → bulls 1.57x → bears 48x → bulls 1.43x, forming a W-shaped oscillation crossing balance. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; when direction is unclear, watch more and trade less.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 3
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Nonfarm payroll data is the last piece before the September rate hike, AI earnings and on-chain revenue narratives provide new pricing anchors for the market.
📊 Nonfarm Preview: Inflation remains the main character, employment is just the "appetizer"
US August nonfarm payrolls release at 8:30 PM Friday. BofA believes nonfarm is just the "appetizer" — CPI remains the key to deciding the September rate hike. Waller clearly states summer CPI declined but "underlying inflation trend has not improved." Without a significant employment drop, Waller must achieve a rate hike in September or face credibility risk.
🖥️ Broadcom and Snowflake: AI hardware and software on stage, market reactions vastly different
Broadcom Q3 revenue $29.591 billion, +86% YoY, AI semiconductors $16.7 billion, +221% YoY. FY2028 AI revenue target $230 billion, but Q4 guidance slightly below expectations, after-hours down over 6%. Snowflake revenue $1.547 billion, +35%, accelerating for three consecutive quarters, AI programming assistant CoCo has 9,100 customer accounts, after-hours surged over 23%.
⛓️ Robinhood Chain volume surge: ARB soars nearly 30% in one day due to "platform tax" narrative
ARB rose nearly 30% in one day, driven by Robinhood Chain's daily on-chain transaction revenue exceeding $2 million, with 10% net protocol revenue returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem, annualized revenue about $73 million. ARB shifts from L2 bet to actual income-linked asset.
💎 Summary
Nonfarm data is the last piece before the September rate hike, but CPI is the true decider; Broadcom proves AI hardware is still booming with $29.5 billion revenue, but the market cannot tolerate a 1% guidance deviation; Snowflake proves AI software is delivering returns with three consecutive quarters of accelerating growth; ARB's 30% surge marks on-chain revenue narrative becoming a new dimension for crypto asset pricing. SPCX liquidation data shows the most complex "W-shaped oscillation" structure — direction changed four times, bulls and bears completed extreme crushing in 1-hour and 12-hour windows respectively, but finally closed near balance at 1.43x. The very low 10.1% concentration indicates whales were idle all day, harvesting only at the tail end. The 1.43x closing leverage means direction is completely unclear, neither bulls nor bears can establish effective advantage before nonfarm release. The big direction still depends on the nonfarm outcome. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Bitcoin has reclaimed the $77K area but the more important story is happening beneath the price. August showed what strong capital inflows can do. Bitcoin gained roughly 25% while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $3.52B in net inflows. September however is presenting a different environment. ETF flows have become less consistent while higher oil prices elevated Treasury yields and changing Federal Reserve expectations are creating a tighter liquidity backdrop. And this is where the currentCoinbase Ethereum Delay Incident: Don't Be Fooled by the Illusion of "Decentralization"
In September 2025, the Coinbase platform experienced delays in Ethereum transactions lasting about 2 hours. Some users were unable to operate their on-chain assets normally, but the platform clearly stated that funds were safe, and buying, selling, and fiat deposits and withdrawals were unaffected.
This incident was not an Ethereum mainnet outage nor a hacker attack on the platform, but congestion in Coinbase's transfer channels. It's like "the highway didn't collapse, but the toll booths were completely blocked": the blockchain itself is decentralized and secure, and on-chain transactions and assets are stable; however, when users store assets on a centralized exchange, they are actually using the services of a centralized platform. The platform's stability directly affects users' ability to use their assets. Even if everything on-chain is normal, if the platform's channels are congested, users cannot operate their assets normally.
This incident reminds cryptocurrency users that blockchain security and exchange stability are two different matters: blockchain technology itself has decentralized, secure, and reliable characteristics; but centralized exchanges have single points of failure risk, and users do not fully control the entry to their assets. When storing assets on exchanges, users essentially rely on the operational capabilities of centralized platforms. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Wall Street Bullish on MicroStrategy at 75%: The Real Transmission Logic Behind Capital Premium
Wall Street institutions have set a 75% upside target for MicroStrategy, based not on traditional software business profits but on its financial engineering ability to continuously increase Bitcoin holdings through stock premiums.
For spot and futures traders in the crypto market, understanding this institutional rating requires a clear view of the real capital transmission chain.
MicroStrategy has become the largest unilateral buyer of Bitcoin spot because its stock price has long been higher than its net asset holdings. As long as a high premium rate is maintained, Saylor can raise billions of dollars at very low cost in the US stock market through market-priced additional issuance and low-interest convertible bonds, continuously accumulating in the spot market. From this perspective, the high target price given by institutions essentially bets on the continuity of this financing-to-buy-coin mechanism.
However, the long-term valuation space presented by the rating cannot be directly equated with short-term market movements.
Historically, every time institutions collectively raise target prices, it is usually accompanied by MicroStrategy pushing a new round of additional financing. At this stage, the US stock market faces dilution pressure from increased new stock supply, while the crypto spot market experiences a time lag from financing completion to capital entry. Blindly following contract leverage when the news breaks often overlooks the basis volatility caused by the rhythm of private placements and market fluctuations.
Institutional analysts build long-cycle balance sheet models, while on-exchange traders face real cash holding costs. Understanding the rhythm differences in financing cycles is far more practically meaningful than simply focusing on a bullish number.This week's biggest macro catalyst for $BTC is undoubtedly the US employment report. After several signs of labor-market cooling, the big question is whether August payrolls will confirm that weakness. Current expectations are for roughly 50K–55K new jobs, while unemployment is expected to remain around 4.1%. The warning signs are already piling up. July payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23K, while May and June were revised lower by a combined 103K. Then August ADP private payrolls came in at just 3None of the leading sectors are new stories—they are all about the "issuance venues" themselves: early chips of new chains, token issuance tools, launchpad ecosystems. The market is betting on where the next batch of supply will emerge. But this is just a reshuffling of existing assets, not new money. USDT market cap moved only +0.01% in 24h, with no funds entering OTC; $BTC dominance dropped to 59.6%, while the whole market fell -1.60%—the blood from the big coin was drained to feed the small coins, the cake didn’t get bigger, it was just cut differently. Fear and greed dropped from 71 to 65, sentiment is actually retreating. My judgment: this is an internal capital relay, with the baton getting lighter as it goes. The smallest market cap sector rose the most fiercely, precisely indicating that pushing it up costs very little. The end signal is easy to verify: as long as USDT market cap continues zero growth, and BTC dominance stops falling and rebounds, the gains of these small sectors will be quickly erased. To talk about rotation continuation, we first need to see a clear increase in USDT issuance. $BTC ️ September has historically been a "troublesome autumn" for the crypto market, and this year might be no exception. Do you think Friday's non-farm payroll data will be a bombshell?
Historical data shows that September is one of the worst-performing months for BTC (average return -2.95%).
With the current surge in the 10-year US Treasury yield, the market is even starting to price in the possibility of a rate hike in September. Friday's non-farm payroll data hangs like the Sword of Damocles overhead.
Before there is any substantial easing in macro liquidity, the high volatility of altcoins will also be amplified during downturns.
Downside protection in the options market is concentrated in the 68k-75k range, indicating that smart money is also guarding against a short-term pullback.
At this point, controlling position size and keeping enough cash flow is more important than blindly chasing highs. $ETH $SOL #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 On September 2, the fund flows of US spot crypto ETFs showed a clear divergence. The ETH spot ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $48.08 million, ending a 12-trading-day streak of continuous net inflows totaling $1.62 billion; the XRP ETF simultaneously experienced an outflow of $7.2 million, marking the end of an 11-day continuous inflow trend. In contrast, the BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of $101.2 million that day, reversing the previous day's large outflow of $236.5 million.
At first glance, the single-day data suggests funds shifted from altcoin targets to Bitcoin, but one day of flow alone cannot definitively indicate institutional rotation. The internal details are more noteworthy: BlackRock's spot ETH product ETHA saw a significant outflow of $53.4 million, while its related staked ETHB product welcomed an inflow of $53 million. This indicates funds are merely reallocating between different Ethereum products rather than fully exiting the ETH sector.
To judge true institutional preference, one should not rely solely on single-day fund inflows or outflows. The key is to observe the sustainability over the next two to three trading days: if BTC continues to see inflows while ETH and XRP maintain outflows, it would indicate institutions are actively reducing high-risk exposure; if fund flows quickly reverse, this fluctuation would be considered a short-term internal rebalancing. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 HYPE has a noteworthy change this time.
Hashdex's NCIQ Crypto Index ETF officially added HYPE after its quarterly adjustment on September 1, with a weight of about 3.36%, making it the fund's fifth largest holding.
What’s truly interesting about this is not just that "institutions bought HYPE."
It’s that the asset scope of traditional crypto index products is gradually expanding beyond BTC and ETH.
HYPE represents on-chain perpetual and derivatives trading infrastructure.
Now that it’s entering institutional index products, it indicates the market’s understanding of this type of asset is changing: it’s no longer just an exchange token but is beginning to be recognized as a crypto asset with real business use cases.
Of course, inclusion in an ETF doesn’t necessarily mean the price will rise.
What’s really worth watching is whether this institutional allocation can turn into sustained capital rather than just a one-time quarterly rebalancing.
$HYPE Institutions are entering the market again!
BlackRock alone moved 115 million
accounting for over 90% of yesterday's total inflow
The rest of those ETFs are basically just along for the ride
I've been watching this data for a long time
Every time IBIT dominates
The market is often still in the bottoming phase
The real big players haven't arrived yet
The historic net inflow of 63.4 billion is right there
Showing that traditional money recognizes this channel
But retail investors are still on the sidelines
Isn't this an opportunity?
Grayscale's mini trust is only 30 million
The name says mini
The scale is also mini
When the small and medium ETFs start to pick up volume
That will be the real signal that the market is about to take off
Now? Keep waiting quietly. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $BTC $ETH The rebound is weak; will Bitcoin continue to fall? Was last week's surge just a dead cat bounce or the start of a bull market? Let's take a quick look.
1. First, let's see if the bull market is really here. Look at the chart. This is Bitcoin's weekly chart, covering multiple bear-to-bull transitions, with one common feature: every bear-to-bull transition is marked by an epic large bullish candle! What happens after that?
2. As shown in the chart, after $BTC experiences a short-term 20% surge with a large bullish candle, it enters several weeks of consolidation. Note, this is a weekly chart, so each small candlestick represents one week. In previous instances, the consolidation lasted 4-7 candlesticks, meaning 4-7 weeks of sideways movement. The token undergoes sufficient rotation before the market rises again!
3. Currently, BTC buying pressure remains strong, with large holders slowly accumulating. Despite the major negative impact of the escalating US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin has only slightly pulled back after such a big rise, which itself is a strong signal. So be patient and leave the rest to time.
4. Another trading opportunity is crude oil $CL. Shu Qin has started gradually building short positions at 86.5, 91, and 96, each with 10% of the position size, holding for twice the long term. I think when oil prices approach around 100, Trump will either back down or a ceasefire will occur, causing oil prices to plummet and yielding big profits! Everyone should be careful not to be greedy for multiples and reduce risk, because haste makes waste. Make money slowly; there will be plenty of opportunities.
Then buy back after the pullback. Many of them have already fallen now 这次是真的低估了 $ARB 的强势程度。 原本以为它只是跟着大盘走，结果打到最后才发现，这家伙最近根本不太看大盘脸色。 BTC、ETH回调的时候，它还能硬撑着往上走；大盘一片绿的时候，它反而突然来一根大阳线，完全就是自己玩自己的。 这波空单输得不冤，确实是我自己几个地方做错了。 第一，进场之前没有把止损位规划清楚。 一直觉得它涨不动了，所以越拿越久。中间有三次冲高的时候，我还不断补仓，把整体成本往上抬。现在想想，如果没有那几次加仓，亏损可能会更加难看。 第二，做空的时候还是应该尊重趋势。 真觉得市场要跌，就去做BTC、ETH这种流动性更好的主流币，或者找那些没有明显资金持续推动的标的。 最忌讳的就是看着涨跌幅榜，哪个涨得猛就去空哪个。 这次 $ARB 给我上了一课： 强势币可以比你想象中强得多，千万别拿自己的主观判断硬扛趋势。 不过我现在对大盘的看法暂时还没有完全改变。 目前依旧偏空，所以已经重新开了 $BTC 空单。 我的核心逻辑还是在宏观这一块，9月份的利率决议依然是我重点关注的风险点。 为了不让单边方向的判断影响太大，我也在预测市场上开了一点小仓位做对冲，尽量给自己留条后路。 接BTC on the eve of Nonfarm Payrolls, 77K becomes the battleground for bulls and bears
Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, August Nonfarm Payrolls will determine the September rate hike scenario.
The market expects an increase of 50-80K, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. July was -23K, so this data is very likely to rebound—but the key is whether the rebound exceeds expectations.
ADP recorded 38K yesterday, below expectations, the weakest since January, casting a shadow over Nonfarm Payrolls. The 10-year yield surged to 4.81%, the probability of a rate hike rose to 68%, and the market has already priced in a hawkish stance.
Three scenarios:
📉 Over 100K → rate hike confirmed, increased pressure on BTC
🔄 50-80K → meets expectations, volatility followed by consolidation
📈 Below 30K → rate hike expectations ease, rebound opportunity appears
BofA reminds: Nonfarm Payrolls are just an appetizer; the CPI on September 11 is the key to deciding whether to hike rates.
My approach: Hold the base position, no adding or betting on direction. Wait for the data to land before acting, keep U on hand for signals.
⛔ Risk reminder: Historical data shows that if the data exceeds expectations, BTC may fall back to $75,000 or even lower. Avoid heavy positions tonight.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Binance launches GoPro (GPRO) U-margined perpetual contracts, supporting up to 20x leverage. Binance announced the launch of GPRO U-margined perpetual contracts on September 3 at 22:45 (UTC+8), supporting up to 20x leverage. The contract target is GoPro Inc. Class A common stock (NASDAQ: GPRO), further integrating the US stock market into the crypto trading ecosystem. Binance announced on September 3 that it will officially launch GPRO U-margined perpetual contracts at 22:45 (UTC+8) that day. Users can use up to 20x leverage for long and short trades, with the contract underlying being GoPro Inc. Class A common stock (NASDAQ: GPRO). This is another move by Binance to continue expanding its stock perpetual contract product line, which previously covered several popular US stock trading targets. The mechanism of stock perpetual contracts is that users use USDT as margin, without needing a US brokerage account or being restricted by traditional trading hours, to conduct high-leverage two-way trading on US stock targets, and use a funding rate mechanism to anchor the underlying stock price. Essentially, this brings US stock exposure into a crypto trading environment operating 24×7 hours. For GoPro, listing Binance perpetual means its stock will be directly exposed to speculative funds from crypto traders worldwide. Historically, the listed stock perpetual targets often experience short-term increases in trading activity and volatility, and the participation of leveraged funds amplifies price reversals on newsHas the trend changed? Institutions are starting to withdraw from ETH and XRP, retreating back to Bitcoin
Brothers, I just checked the data, and the winning streaks of ETH and XRP ETFs both ended yesterday.
ETH ended a 12-day winning streak, with about $48 million flowing out; XRP's 11-day winning streak also ended, with $7.2 million flowing out. Interestingly, on the same day, Bitcoin ETFs saw an inflow of over $100 million.
This signal is quite clear — institutions aren't panic selling at the top, but rather rotating sectors, swapping some altcoin exposure back into Bitcoin.
To put it simply, ETH and XRP have risen quite a bit since mid-August. With short-term profit-taking and macro uncertainty, institutions are choosing to lock in gains first and seek shelter in the most liquid BTC.
Impact on prices? There will definitely be short-term pressure. ETH is hovering just above $2400, and XRP is around $1.36. But as long as this isn't a sustained withdrawal, it's not a big problem. The key is whether the funds return in the next few days. If the outflow continues, the altcoin season might have to wait a bit longer. $XRP $ETH SanDisk deep V rebound, someone is buying at the 1511 level
Today's market is quite interesting. In the early session, SanDisk was directly hammered down, but it slowly recovered by the close, leaving a long lower shadow on the daily chart. This pattern usually indicates that there is capital buying at the bottom, and the short-term selling pressure has mostly been released.
On the news front, South Korea's regulatory tightening on leveraged ETFs triggered a collective sell-off in the storage sector. SanDisk, Western Digital, and SK Hynix all fell sharply in the early session. Additionally, news broke about NVIDIA's approximately $250 billion AI data center financing plan, causing short-term concerns about funding pressure on AI infrastructure. These two factors combined led to a severe emotional sell-off in the early session.
However, the recovery by the close indicates that panic sentiment has mostly eased. The 1511 level has been repeatedly tested but not broken, so it can be used as an observation anchor point in the short term. If the price can stand back above the MA20, this adjustment may stabilize.
The grid trading is still running normally. This kind of market is most comfortable for grid trading: orders get filled when the price drops, and orders sell when the price rises, repeatedly capturing the spread. Let's keep grinding and see how long 1511 can hold.
$SNDK Brothers, everyone is asking why BTC surged today?
First, look at the price—Bitcoin broke through $77,000, closing the 7-day moving average at 77,336. On the surface, it looks like just a small step rebound, but the underlying game is ten times more complex than you think.
This is not simply a "rise," but a rehearsal of a long-short game.
1. Calm on the surface, turbulent currents beneath
What’s the strangest thing today? The global bond market is collapsing—Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 3%, hitting a new high since 1996; US Treasury yields surged simultaneously; Brent crude oil broke through $95 per barrel. Traditional markets are in turmoil, but BTC remains steady as an old dog.
What does this indicate? Someone is using Bitcoin as a safe haven.
K33 data shows global Bitcoin ETP net inflow of 52,000 BTC in August, the highest since November 2024. Strategy resumed buying last week, increasing holdings by 4,603 BTC, spending $370 million—this is the first purchase since June. $BTC $ETH Interest rate hike alarm sounds again, the market should prepare for volatility
Federal Reserve Governor Waller recently stated that if the August inflation data is stronger than expected, he will support restarting rate hikes in September. This statement directly rings the alarm for global risk assets.
Previously, the market generally expected the rate hike cycle to have ended, with rate cuts anticipated within the year, and risk assets rebounded on this expectation. However, this hawkish statement completely shattered the market's optimistic illusions.
If rate hikes occur in September, U.S. Treasury yields will rise again, the dollar will strengthen, which will directly suppress the crypto market and the U.S. tech stock sector, increasing short-term correction risks.
However, it should be viewed objectively that the statement comes with conditions, and the final decision rests on the upcoming inflation data. If inflation falls, this speech will only be an emotional warning, and the market will quickly digest it.
Currently, the biggest feature of the market is amplified uncertainty; news can easily trigger rapid spikes, and two-way washouts between bulls and bears will become more frequent.
At this stage, it is not suitable to heavily bet on direction; try to reduce trading frequency. Before the inflation data is released, it is best to stay on the sidelines, engage in small position trades, strictly set stop losses, and avoid blindly chasing orders due to short-term news stimuli.#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC is back above $77K, but the market structure underneath the move deserves more attention than the headline price.
Headline prices can be deceiving when macro shifts under the hood:
August vs September: August saw $3.52B in spot $BTC BETF net inflows and a ~25% rally, but September started with negative ETF flows and macro headwinds (rising oil prices, elevated yields, Fed rate hike expectations).#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Today's intense volatility in the Asian tech sector, combined with two key pre-market news reports, is highly likely to show an extreme "ice and fire" polarization in the U.S. tech sector tonight—chips/semiconductors are under significant pressure, while large tech giants (the "Seven Sisters") are expected to emerge independently. 1. The core drivers of the Asian trading "roller coaster" continue to ferment tonight The direct trigger for the global stock market plunge in the afternoon session was U.S. Commerce Secretary Rutnick's tough statement on "targeted tariffs on semiconductors." This news directly impacted semiconductor companies highly dependent on global supply chains: Japan and South Korea: South Korea's composite index dropped 1.53% after erasing 1.8% gains, Samsung Electronics fell over 2%, SK Hynix fell over 2% · A-shares: STAR 50's losses widened to 1%, with over 3,900 stocks down · Hong Kong stocks: Hang Seng Tech down over 1% · US stock futures: Three major futures plunged simultaneously, SOXX overnight session turned from 0.6% up to 1% Memory chip stocks will continue tonight — Affected by tariff news, memory chip stocks have generally come under pressure. 2. Semiconductor Sector: Greatest Pressure Tonight Pre-market Signals Clear: SK Hynix fell over 3% in pre-market trading, Broadcom fell over 3%, SanDisk dropped over 1%, Micron Technology fell nearly 1%, and Western Digital, Seagate, and Intel all declined. The core intent of tariff policy is to use cost pressure to weaken South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix's monopoly in the high-end storage sector. However, there are rational disagreements in the market: most analysts believe tariffs will be tightenedTaking advantage of the vote on the "Clarity Act" on September 15th
Let's talk about the outlook for Bitcoin
I think there will still be a pullback
Around October or November
A surge without a pullback won't last long
As for more specific timing and levels, I can't judge
But if Bitcoin drops back to the low 60,000s again
Spot buying is definitely possible
Now, let's talk about the event
On September 15th, at 2:15 PM Eastern Time, the U.S. Senate will hold a key procedural vote on H.R.3633, the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act."
This vote is on the cloture on the motion to proceed—simply put, the Senate first decides whether to officially bring this crypto market structure bill to the floor for further consideration.
This threshold requires 60 votes.
If it passes, the CLARITY Act will proceed to Senate review, amendments, and final voting; if it fails to reach 60 votes, the bill will basically be stalled in the short term.
The U.S. Senate has officially confirmed that this vote will expire and enter the voting procedure at 2:15 PM on September 15th.
Why is the crypto market focused on this?
Because the CLARITY Act aims to solve a long-standing issue in the U.S. crypto industry: which digital assets fall under SEC jurisdiction, which under CFTC, and under what rules trading platforms and digital commodities should operate.
On a deeper level, it addresses the regulatory risk premium for U.S. crypto assets.
The clearer the rules, the lower the uncertainty traditional financial institutions face when entering this market; if legislation stalls again, this uncertainty returns.
So September 15th is worth watching, followed by the next day.
On September 16th, at 2 PM Eastern Time, the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision.
This meeting will also update economic forecasts and the dot plot. The Federal Reserve's official calendar confirms the meeting dates as September 15–16.
Therefore, $BTC will face two completely different variables in less than a day:
September 15th, the market prices in regulation
September 16th, the market prices in dollar liquidity
If the CLARITY Act passes smoothly and the FOMC leans dovish, these two forces may align.
If the bill is blocked and the Fed continues to send hawkish signals, the pressure may compound.
The most troublesome scenario is one positive and one negative.
At that time, the market will likely first price in the regulatory news quickly, then several hours later be reshaped by interest rate expectations.
Ultimately, the market trades on
expectation gaps and liquidity Just finished eating, ETH is at $2,415, up slightly 0.5% in 24 hours, lowest at $2,356, with daily volatility under $80.
The market is weak, a 4-hour M-top pattern is emerging, neckline at $2,370. If it doesn't hold, the next support is at $2,328, with resistance at $2,430-$2,450 as the first hurdle.
ETF inflows ended after 12 consecutive days; Wednesday saw a net outflow of $48 million, with BlackRock ETHA withdrawing $53.4 million. However, BlackRock's staked ETH ETF had a simultaneous inflow of $53 million, indicating funds are rotating within the sector rather than a full exit. The probability of a September rate hike has surged above 60%, US Treasury yields continue to rise, and the macro environment is indeed unfavorable.
ETH/BTC is around 0.0307, still at a low level overall, but a change worth noting—BTC ETF saw an outflow of $236 million on September 1, while ETH, SOL, and XRP ETFs are seeing inflows, showing institutional funds are migrating from Bitcoin to altcoins.
If the $2,430-$2,450 resistance can't be broken, consolidation will continue; if surpassed, look towards $2,500-$2,530. If it stays at this level, wait for a clear direction before acting.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$ETH $BTC $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Sharp rise ≠ reversal, this is the last flare of a short squeeze wave, not the bell of a bull market.
BTC pulled from 64,000 to 79,000, ETH surged past 2400+, 24h long-short liquidation inverted (long positions exploded over 80%), a typical three-stage pattern of “short covering rally → bulls chasing highs → bulls being shaken out.” The drivers are the decline in long-term US Treasury yields + White House summit sentiment + forced liquidation of June short positions; ETF net inflow is a baton pass, not ignition.
Entry is possible, but only recognize pullback confirmation: BTC retreating to 74,000–76,000, ETH retreating to 2300–2350 with reduced volume without breaking, lightly enter long positions with a 1.5% stop loss; or a real volume close breaking above 80,000/2500 to follow the right side. RSI daily at 82 is overbought, whales moving to exchanges, chasing bullish candles = giving the 64,000 cut-loss holders a reverse exit ticket. Cash is also a position.U.S. initial jobless claims of 206,000 slightly exceed expectations, labor market marginal cooling Data released on September 3 shows that initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29 reached 206,000, higher than the market expectation of 205,000, the highest since the week of August 15, indicating signs of marginal cooling in the labor market. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that as of the week ending August 29, initial jobless claims reached 206,000, about 1,000 higher than the market expectation of 205,000, and the highest since the week of August 15. In absolute terms, initial jobless claims just over 200,000 remain at historic lows, indicating that the overall U.S. job market remains robust and companies have limited willingness to lay off on a large scale. Initial jobless claims are a high-frequency indicator of marginal changes in the U.S. job market. Since the Fed's policy direction heavily relies on a combination of employment and inflation data, continuous changes in this data directly affect market pricing of interest rate paths. The core recent market game is: if employment data continues to weaken, it will strengthen the need for Fed rate cuts; If employment remains resilient, the pace of rate cuts may slow. This data was only 1,000 higher than expected, a very small deviation, basically within the statistical noise range, and weekly data is unlikely to form a trend signal. However, its slightly above expectations and near three-week high combination may still be interpreted by some investors as evidence of marginal cooling in the labor market, thereby marginally supporting rate cut expectations on a sentiment level. Market Impact: Indirect Benefits: Crypto Market/Macro Liquidity - Gold ETFs increased holdings by nearly 10 tons, with risk-averse funds continuing to flow in ahead of the non-farm payrolls
Latest data shows that the world's largest gold ETF increased its holdings by 9.984 tons on September 3, bringing its total holdings back up to 1056.62 tons. Meanwhile, the Dutch central bank transferred about 86 tons of gold reserves from New York and Ottawa to London between March and August to enhance liquidity during crises; this was a reserve location adjustment rather than new gold purchases.
Gold has performed strongly over the past two days, rebounding from around 4330 to above 4450, with significant volatility within the week. Goldman Sachs pointed out that option market makers' hedging activities may amplify buying during price increases and exacerbate pullbacks during declines, potentially increasing short-term volatility.
From the background perspective, gold's strength is not isolated. Since August, gold has risen over 11% cumulatively, and its correlation with Bitcoin has also reached a high level, as funds shift from U.S. Treasuries and other sovereign credit assets to hard assets.
However, there are short-term suppressing factors. After the hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, the probability of a rate hike in September surged above 60%, with rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar putting pressure on gold. Tonight's non-farm payroll data is a key variable; weaker employment data would benefit gold, while stronger data would cause short-term pressure. Nevertheless, continuous central bank purchases and geopolitical risks provide medium- to long-term support.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Many people have been focused on the Federal Reserve these past two days, but what will truly cause the market to fluctuate sharply is actually tomorrow night's nonfarm payroll data.
The current situation is somewhat delicate. On one hand, employment data continues to cool down, with August ADP adding only 38,000 jobs, hitting a low for the year, and the Fed's Beige Book also mentioning that employment growth has slowed in most regions; on the other hand, inflation has yet to fully come down, with core PCE still above the Fed's 2% target, and rising energy prices adding new pressure to inflation.
Because of this, market expectations for the September 16 FOMC meeting remain unsettled. According to CME FedWatch and recent market pricing, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September still stays above 60%.
Personally, I think it's no longer just about looking at employment strength.
If tonight's nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, the market will further bet on a September rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may continue to strengthen, and risk assets will face pressure; but if the data is weak again, although it will dampen rate hike expectations, it does not necessarily mean the Fed will immediately pivot, because the inflation problem has not been fully resolved.
In other words, what the Fed is most troubled by now is not an overheated economy, but that while the economy is cooling, inflation has not fully returned to the target range.
For investors, the market's initial reaction after tonight's nonfarm release may not be the true direction. What really determines the September policy meeting, besides nonfarm payrolls, is the CPI data released afterward. If both nonfarm and inflation are strong, the probability of a September rate hike will continue to rise; if both employment and inflation fall, the market trend may truly change.
Prices are always more honest than expectations. Instead of guessing what the Fed will say, it's better to watch where the money flows after the data comes out. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls could very well be the most critical rehearsal before the September FOMC.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Bitcoin Is Starting to Trade Like a Different Macro Asset Something unusual is happening beneath the $BTC price action. Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold reached its highest level since 2020 at the end of August, while its relationship with U.S. equities has weakened. The shift happened during a bond-market selloff, when investors were reassessing inflation, yields and monetary policy. That matters because Bitcoin has historically traded more like a high-beta risk asset than a defensive mac🚨Are banks also starting to "play with digital currency"? Cari raises $32.5 million, traditional finance is accelerating its embrace of the on-chain world! 🏦🌐
According to reports, the bank-led digital currency network Cari has completed a $32.5 million Series A funding round, with multiple large banking institutions participating, including First Horizon Bank, Huntington Bank, KeyBank, M&T Bank, and others.
The focus of this funding is not just about raising money to expand, but banks are quietly laying out a new direction—"digital deposits" and "programmable money."
Simply put, money in banks used to be just a string of numbers that could only be deposited, withdrawn, or transferred; but future money may become smarter, able to automatically execute transactions according to preset rules.
For example:
Companies paying salaries can set automatic deposits;
Supply chain payments can be completed automatically once conditions are met;
Settlements between institutions can bypass complex procedures, speeding up fund flows.
What Cari aims to do is somewhat like equipping traditional banks with a "blockchain high-speed system" ⚡, allowing bank funds to operate on-chain.
More importantly, this time the participants are not just players from the crypto circle, but a group of traditional financial institutions.
This sends a very clear signal:
Previously, banks viewed blockchain mostly as observers;
Now banks are starting to actively participate in building it.This wave is not a "confirmed reversal," but a combination of a short squeeze tail wave and a macro trigger. BTC surged from 64,000 to 79,500 (the high on 8/21), ETH pushed above 2400+, but since 8/23 it has started to pull back from the highs, with 80% of long positions liquidated in 24h (880 million across the network) — indicating that the chasing bulls are being shaken out.
Driver breakdown: Long-term US Treasury yields falling + White House summit expectations + forced liquidation of short positions held since June (short liquidations exceeding 3 billion) = strong short covering and heavy buying, not continuous real-money spot accumulation. ETF net inflow of 1.1 billion over two days is a handover, not ignition.
Entry is possible, but only accept one of two scenarios: pullback or volume breakout:
• Pullback: BTC 74,000–76,000, ETH 2300–2350 with shrinking volume to stop the decline → light long positions with stop loss set 1.5% below;
• Or a close above BTC 80,000, ETH 2500 with volume ≥ 1.5 times the average of the previous 5 days → follow the breakout.
Daily RSI at 82 is overbought, a whale transferred 7,700 BTC to exchanges in 3 days, chasing the bullish candle now = issuing a reverse exit ticket to those who cut losses at 64,000. A sharp rally without pullback and a direct surge is most likely a false breakout; wait for a pullback which is 5%–8% cheaper than chasing the wick. B+ ETHThe Biggest Institutional Crypto Shift May Not Be Happening Through ETFs For years, the institutional crypto story was mainly about ETFs. Now the infrastructure itself is changing. Standard Chartered has launched institutional spot trading for $BTC and $ETH in the UAE, making it the first global systemically important bank to offer this capability in the Gulf market. That distinction matters. An ETF gives institutions exposure. Direct spot trading gives them another route to actually execute andBTC has recovered to 80,000. Some people got in, some missed out, and some just broke even. I'm not jealous of anyone—I don't bet on whether it can flip over, I'm crouching at the bottom, eating the money it keeps bouncing around. Let's make a judgment first: in the next 30 days, there will be wide fluctuations, with the center of gravity shifting slightly upward. It's not a one-sided bull market, and definitely not a crash. There are just three reasons without any exaggeration. In August, the price jumped from 62,000 to 80,000, a 23% increase in one month. It looks impressive, but it was bought with real money from spot ETFs, with a net inflow of 3 billion dollars over 9 days, contract positions not increasing but decreasing, and funding rates flat. This is buying to rise from gain, not from leverage; the foundation is clean. But the 80,000 threshold is really tough. Above it is the cost line of 880,000 BTC, with a $68 billion uneven position waiting — whoever stands above 80,000 is helping these people carry the load. So short-term hard to get through requires grinding. Looking at the moving average, just a golden cross, the 20-day moving average crossed the 200-day moving average, a mid-term bullish turn is reasonable; But the RSI is already 71, the MACD bar has been cut in half, the rush is too aggressive, so I have to catch my breath. So the drop is not deep (70,000 is supported by institutional costs), and it cannot rise (80,000 is held back by uneven liquidation). From 70,000 to 86,000, just swing within this frame. I split 1 million like this, exactly 100 points: spot 30%, 300,000. For ballast stones, only buy on pullbacks, never chase highs.
Grid 25%, 250,000. The most comfortable market is a volatile market, with price differences back and forth.
Double coin win + earn coinsThe previous rise was too strong, and currently it is in a digestion phase. The long-term bullish trend has not changed. ● Macro variables: Significant linkage with traditional financial markets. Recent geopolitical situations (such as military actions in the Strait of Hormuz) have driven up crude oil prices and pushed US Treasury yields higher (the 10-year yield rose above 4.8%), with the US dollar index approaching the 100 mark. In addition, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have warmed up, and the non-farm payroll data to be released this Friday will be a key variable determining the market direction in September.
Seasonal pattern: Historically, September has generally been a weak month for Bitcoin (with an average decline of about -2.95% since 2013). However, given the upward momentum in August, the market's long-term bullish expectations remain unchanged, and it is expected that after a pullback within the month, the larger cycle will continue to rise.
In the short term, BTC is very likely to continue a volatile consolidation pattern. It is recommended to patiently wait for an effective breakout or breakdown signal from the range. Close attention should be paid to the sustainability of spot ETF funds, the release of Friday's non-farm payroll data, and whether the price can digest profit-taking without relying on leverage. These will be the core indicators to confirm the next round of a one-sided direction. $BTC $ETH #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
The market is entering another sleepless night, nonfarm payrolls are coming soon 😮💨
This Friday's nonfarm payrolls report is the most important answer before the FOMC rate decision meeting.
The quality of the data will directly influence expectations for a September rate hike. The big direction of $BTC and $ETH largely depends on this data.
If employment data exceeds expectations and strengthens, rate hike expectations will rise again, and BTC is likely to face pressure and pull back;
If the data weakens, rate cut expectations will resurge, and the market will see another wave of emotional rally.
On one side, macro data stirs the market; on the other, underlying on-chain narratives quietly rotate.
Robinhood chain's recent trading volume continues to expand, driving the $ARB revenue narrative to heat up again.
Funds are starting to divert from the large BTC and ETH market to sectors like ARB that have real revenue logic.
The market differentiation is especially obvious now.
BTC repeatedly spikes and dips to shake out positions, while ETH occasionally shows independent moves.
The market is constrained by nonfarm expectations, while some smaller tokens have already started to hype on-chain revenue stories in advance.
A reminder: do not blindly chase hot narratives.
Volatility will be amplified before the nonfarm data is released, and once macro news breaks, even the most attractive on-chain narratives can be dragged down by the overall market.
#Robinhood chain volume expands, ARB revenue narrative heats up $TRUMP Regarding the price trend after 2026, there is significant divergence among market institutions, mainly influenced by the following core factors:
November 2026 Midterm Elections: This is the most critical point affecting the price. Optimistic forecasts believe that if there is a major political benefit or a landslide victory, the price could surge to $30-80; pessimistic forecasts believe that if the election fails or the situation remains deadlocked, the price may hover in the $3-10 range or even lower.
Token Unlocking and Selling Pressure: The total token supply is 1 billion, of which as much as 80% is held by entities associated with Trump and is planned to be gradually unlocked over the next three years. This potential huge selling pressure is an important factor suppressing its long-term valuation.
Lack of Application Scenarios: Despite having political topic heat, its official social media platform (Truth Social) has not integrated the token, lacking actual application scenarios to support it, resulting in the valuation mainly remaining at the conceptual speculation level.Nonfarm August ADP employment increased by only 38,000, expected 48,000, marking the slowest growth since January. Despite such poor data, the US stock market closed higher across the board, ending a three-day losing streak.
Is the market crazy? No, it’s just being too honest.
US August ADP private sector employment rose by 38,000, far below expectations, and July’s revised figure was only 46,000. The labor market is visibly cooling down. Normally, poor economic data would cause the stock market to fall, but the current script is that the worse the data, the lower the probability of rate hikes, and the higher the stock market rises. Bad news is good news—this logic played out vividly today.
The bond market had previously worried about the Fed continuing to tighten, pushing borrowing costs to the highest in three years, suffocating the stock market. Now, with the weak employment data, tightening expectations have cooled, and the US stock market immediately revived fully. The Dow rose 0.56%, the S&P 0.46%, and the Nasdaq 0.45%, finally recovering after three days of losses.
The impact on the crypto space is direct and blunt: the US dollar index fell back to 99.51, liquidity expectations improved, theoretically benefiting risk assets, but BTC is still playing dead today, indicating that funds prefer to first take the certain rebound in US stocks.
The main event is yet to come: this week’s nonfarm payroll report. ADP is just an appetizer; if nonfarm continues to disappoint, rate cut trades will ignite completely, and crypto remaining indifferent would be hard to justify. Volatility will increase around the data release, so leveraged traders should consciously reduce their multiples. $BTC Key non-farm payrolls node tomorrow night $BTC $ETH $SOL will it crash?
At 8:30 PM tomorrow night, the last set of core data before the FOMC meeting—the August non-farm payroll report—will be released, which is currently the biggest key variable in the market.
The focus of this non-farm payroll report is not on the number of new jobs added, but on the significant revision of the previous data.
Previously, U.S. employment data has been continuously shrinking, with July employment decreasing by 23,000 jobs, and a combined downward revision of 103,000 jobs for May and June, disproving the earlier employment heat.
This market situation is very confusing; even if August's new employment turns positive and the data appears strong on the surface, as long as the previous data is revised downward again, the core trend of cooling employment will not change.
The BTC market battle thus becomes complicated, with no absolute one-way benefit.
Weakening employment can ease the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations but will trigger market concerns about economic recession, causing funds to seek safety and sell off risk assets.
Short-term market volatility will intensify, with repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Do not simply bet on a rise or fall; it is best to wait and see before the data is released.
Focus closely on the extent of the previous data revision, as this is the core key to the main early line's rise and fall and breaking the current oscillation pattern.
✌️✌️✌️
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Tomorrow the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls will be released. Today, the volume of $BTC and $ETH is not very large, giving a bit of a signal of winding down, but the short-term impact of the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls is still most important for the September Federal Reserve meeting.
I believe that a rate hike in September is not necessarily negative. From Wash's speech a week ago and several speeches by Trump, the market has already had a preview of the rate hike. Because of the circuit breaker in the South Korean stock market, the market was already on edge, and any negative news would lead to massive sell-offs. So I think the market's concern about the Fed's September rate hike has already exceeded the actual impact of the hike on the US stock market.
What we should really focus on is not the rate hike itself, but the signal behind the rate hike.
If there is a rate hike in September, I feel there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the market. If a rate cut is to respond to US Treasury bonds, it does not necessarily mean a positive.
Feel free to share your thoughts.
#FOMC last set of data before: this Friday's non-farm payrolls #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 Elon Musk's attitude toward cryptocurrency reversal is never a matter of belief, but a matter of timing.
In January 2025, when X Pay officially announced its launch schedule, it clearly stated that cryptocurrency was not considered for the time being. At that time, X had just partnered with Visa and was applying for payment licenses in various U.S. states one by one. Any crypto element would multiply compliance costs, so the only rational choice was to first get the dollar system running smoothly. In March 2026, with the public beta test date of X Money set, he no longer avoided the imaginative space for DOGE, and market expectations were reignited accordingly. What seems like a reversal is actually two segments of the same roadmap: first, use the fiat currency system to build the infrastructure such as account custody, debit cards, and deposit insurance, obtain regulatory approval, and then let crypto assets take the stage. Payments are a heavily regulated business, and the order of licenses determines the order of public statements. It is worth noting that the officially launched version is still purely fiat currency; $DOGE has not been truly integrated, indicating that this change of stance is more about preserving flexibility for the ecosystem rather than a casual remark. For Musk, crypto is not a question of whether or not, but when to say it and how much to say. This year he experienced not a shift in stance, but moving a card from his sleeve to the table—first compliance, then crypto, advancing step by step.📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (September 3)
1-hour shorts crushed extremely, 4-hour longs violently reversed 9.5 times, 12-hour longs soared to a nuclear peak of 2135 times, 24-hour avalanche down to 138.7 times — after a V-shaped reversal, continuous exhaustion, low concentration indicates liquidations throughout the day
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $19.99 $0 $19.99
4 hours $210.14 $190.15 $19.99
12 hours $42,800 $42,700 $19.99
24 hours $124,400 $123,600 $890.86
1-hour shorts crushed extremely, short liquidation $19.99 while longs were 0; 4-hour direction reversed — **longs** violently surpassed by 9.51 times, volume $210.14; 12-hour longs soared to a nuclear peak of 2135 times, volume exploded to $42,800, short liquidation still $19.99 unchanged; 24-hour **longs** narrowed to 138.7 times at close, liquidation $123,600 for longs vs. $890.86 for shorts, cumulative liquidation $124,400. 12-hour liquidation accounts for 34.4% of 24-hour total, concentration is low. Multiple trajectory: shorts extreme → longs 9.51x → longs 2135x → longs 138.7x, showing a V-shaped reversal followed by avalanche-like exhaustion. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x, direction is clear but volume is small, avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 3
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Nonfarm payroll data is the last piece before the September rate hike, AI earnings and on-chain revenue narratives provide new pricing anchors for the market.
📊 Nonfarm Vanguard: Inflation remains the main character, employment is just the "appetizer"
US August nonfarm payrolls will be released Friday at 8:30 PM. Bank of America believes nonfarm is just the "appetizer" — CPI remains the key to deciding the September rate hike. Waller clearly states summer CPI has fallen but "underlying inflation trends have not improved." If employment does not drop sharply, Waller must implement a rate hike in September or face credibility risk.
🖥️ Broadcom and Snowflake: AI software and hardware on stage, market reactions vastly different
Broadcom Q3 revenue $29.591 billion, +86% YoY, AI semiconductor $16.7 billion, +221% YoY. Fiscal 2028 AI revenue target $230 billion, but Q4 guidance slightly below expectations, after-hours down over 6%. Snowflake revenue $1.547 billion, +35%, accelerating for three consecutive quarters, AI programming assistant CoCo has 9,100 customer accounts, after-hours surged over 23%.
⛓️ Robinhood Chain volume surge: ARB soars nearly 30% in one day due to "platform tax" narrative
ARB rose nearly 30% in one day, driven by Robinhood Chain's daily on-chain transaction revenue exceeding $2 million, with 10% net protocol revenue returned to the Arbitrum ecosystem, annualized revenue about $73 million. ARB shifts from L2 bet to actual income-linked asset.
💎 Summary
Nonfarm data is the last piece before the September rate hike, but CPI is the real decider; Broadcom proves AI hardware is still booming with $29.5 billion revenue, but the market cannot tolerate a 1% guidance deviation; Snowflake proves AI software is delivering returns with three consecutive quarters of accelerating growth; ARB's 30% surge marks on-chain revenue narrative becoming a new dimension for crypto asset pricing. KAITO liquidation data is a typical "liquidity trap" example — 12-hour multiple soared to a nuclear peak of 2135 times, but short liquidation remained $19.99 unchanged, 24-hour total liquidation only $124,000. Extreme multiples are just a technical phenomenon of thin liquidity, not real long-short confrontation. Although direction turned long, volume is extremely shrunk; such marginal products have no reference value in the big picture. The big direction still depends on the nonfarm data release. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温