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The long positions in the afternoon were indeed stopped out during that drop.
Later, I also realized the situation had reversed, so I already mentioned in the live stream to start positioning long.
It was $BTC and $ETH, two trades that together made 12,000U, okay?
Facing such extreme market conditions was indeed a bit dizzying.
Of course, it's a good thing to come back in the end.
For the next move, I tend to think there will be a pullback.
Because this wave of rise was essentially due to the bulls being completely liquidated; there's nothing left to crush, so it can only stretch to counterattack the shorts.
Today we indeed saw the big coin starting with 7, okay?
No trades tonight either; after these two trades, there’s no more market action, so everyone should reduce positions. The market these days is indeed quite extreme.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 On October 15, $AKE surged over 30% in a single day, but the clear event is a large-scale token unlock on October 21. I went long at 0.02473, marked 0.03502, with an unrealized profit of 41.7%.
The logic is to bet that the negative news has been fully priced in. The market had already priced in some selling pressure before the unlock, and the volume-driven rebound on October 15 indicates that buying interest remains. I followed the stabilization to go long and capture the elasticity.
However, the real selling pressure from the unlock has not yet arrived. The +832% gain is the result of a 20x leverage amplifying the price difference; don't take the unrealized profit figure as real money—it only becomes real after fees.
The market is expected to oscillate at a high level going forward. There is resistance around 0.04; holding that level offers a chance, but if it doesn't hold, the unlocked tokens will become real selling pressure. In that case, I'd rather wait and not rush in—watching the market is also fine. $BTC $ETH #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Continuing from the previous post
2 is about restructuring the global energy landscape and absorbing global capital liquidity.
Europe's debt crisis has already begun to spread, and Europe's crude oil reserves are also at a low level. In this situation, Europe's debt and energy are prone to resonance, causing European capital to buy U.S. Treasury assets for risk aversion, then through secondary inflows, keep the funds in the U.S. Therefore, the sustained high yield on U.S. Treasuries is a cost the U.S. can bear. Including the recent diesel import-export plan reached between Trump and Putin, I think it is also meant to annoy Europe. Moreover, the U.S. is a major oil exporter. Whether it's WTI or Brent crude oil prices at high levels, the U.S. can actually recover some of its losses. In other words, the U.S. can achieve a strong dollar while enduring the energy consumption better than many other countries.
However, the inflationary pressure transmitted by crude oil is real. Today's U.S. CPI release was 3.7, higher than the expected 3.6, which also increases expectations for rate hikes. This is unfriendly to all assets, and this war will not end easily. Crude oil prices are also likely to experience high-level volatility or an upward trend, which also provides us with opportunities to pick up good companies' cheap chips.
Now, I have reduced my crude oil position to 15%. Proper risk control is the most important!$BTC plunged intraday to $79.8 K before rebounding to reclaim $82 K, with $173 million long liquidations in 24 hours; Abraxas Capital's $1.45 billion short position has unrealized profits of $331 million. 1. $BTC briefly dropped below $80,000, dipping to $79,800, then rebounded to about $82,346 (+0.7%); in 24 hours, $BTC liquidations totaled $217 million, with longs accounting for $173 million (80%). Binance saw over $106 million in $ETH long liquidations in a single hour; $ETH hit a two-month low of $2,318 before closing at $2,445 (+0.4%). 2. Policy and capital pressures: White House officials clearly stated the current priority is to inventory and safeguard existing Bitcoin holdings, with no specific plan to increase holdings, weakening expectations for strategic reserve purchases; US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $261 million yesterday (only Bitwise's BITB recorded a $2.2 million inflow), Ethereum spot ETFs had $130 million outflows with none of the ten funds showing net inflows; VanEck also canceled plans for a Lido staked Ethereum ETF. 3. OKX / $OKB: Token dropped 4.0% to $117.8, intraday low $114.01; the sell-off after the $25 billion valuation fundraising is not over, making it the weakest performer today Dogecoin has been criticized again these past two days: the most knockoff of knockoffs, nothing without Musk, rising slowly and falling fast. I checked the scores: 24h -1.5%, 7 days -2.4%, stuck around the middle of the last 7 days—neither rising nor falling. Interestingly, the volume: trading is 3.8 times the usual, with 170 million U turned over in one day, yet the price remains flat. This is turnover, not a market trend. Bulls believe "Musk will shout again," bears argue "he already shouted, it's expired," both sides betting on old stories. To be realistic: it's 12% higher than 90 days ago, 14% lower than six months ago, and those who chased the high six months ago are still stuck with a 30% loss. This is a position where "the steepest drop has already happened, but it’s not really cheap," not a starting point. $DOGE Is the rebound candy, and the bears knives?🍬🔪
CPI at 3.7% exceeded expectations, rate cut trades were dampened, and the probability of a rate hike in October surged from 22% to 53.7%. The dollar surged to 102.7, the 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5.33%, officials lined up to hawkishly speak, and AI investment overheating may continue to fuel inflation. The macro backdrop remains unchanged: BTC and ETH trends are still bearish, but not necessarily a straight drop; it looks more like a weak recovery, a bull trap, then a fall.📉
$BTC was hammered down to 80,230 intraday, almost losing 80,000; there was 484 million in liquidations across the network in 1 hour, with longs accounting for 464 million. ETFs are also withdrawing: BTC net outflow of 261 million, ETH outflow of 129 million, with BlackRock alone exiting over 100 million. However, on-chain whale holdings rose to 3.03 million BTC, the fastest accumulation pace since February. Institutions exit, whales buy, divergence is at its peak.🐋
My spot average price is 63,000, picking up along the way to 80,000, fearing missing out more than floating losses; contract spikes are too brutal, don’t bet your life on it. Going forward, only watching: BTC at 80,000, ETH at 2,360. If BTC breaks, look at 78,000 and the ETF cost zone; ETH is weaker, with ETFs flowing out for 10 consecutive days totaling 783 million, and a sell wall at 2,382. If broken, bears continue; if held, the tug of war continues. Slowly endure on spot, don’t get carried away with contracts.⚠️After reviewing 76 trades, the numbers tell a clear story. 🔴 Short Positions
• 37 trades | 95% win rate
• Net profit: 4,039 USDT
• Forced liquidations: 0 🟢 Long Positions
• 39 trades | 72% win rate
• Net profit: 1,388 USDT
• All 6 forced liquidations came from longs. ⚠️ The 100x Leverage Trap
• 28 trades generated 781 USDT net profit.
• 530 USDT went toward trading fees. Meanwhile, trades using leverage of 10x or less generated 738 USDT across 10 trades. Fewer trades, similar total profit, and$ADA Damn it! This ADA chart is driving my blood pressure through the roof. Outside it's quiet, but inside the order book it's dog-eat-dog; at the 0.2303 level, funds are stubbornly pushing upwards. The market makers are shaking out positions fiercely—how many people have been thrown off the train?
On the daily chart, volume has shrunk to the extreme, with repeated friction between 0.22 and 0.23—a classic accumulation phase nearing its end. I don't care how others are shouting 'short'; at this level, I'm planting a position with a stop loss at 0.2180. If it breaks, I'll accept it.
Don't chase highs, don't go all in, manage your position if you're following. If you want to get in, click the token market card below and check the order book before making a move.
👇👇👇$SNDK US September PPI far exceeds expectations, SanDisk SNDK under short-term pressure
US September PPI month-on-month +1.3%, expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%; Core PPI month-on-month +0.7%, expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%. Both readings significantly exceeded market expectations and accelerated noticeably compared to August. Historical sequence: May 1.1%, June -0.3%, July 0%, August 0.4%, September 1.3%, September is the highest in the series.
Impact on SanDisk SNDK: short-term bearish.
1. Valuation side: inflation stickiness → cooling rate cut expectations → US Treasury yields rise → high-valuation tech/growth stocks under pressure.
2. Exchange rate side: US dollar strengthens → overseas revenue conversion shrinks.
3. Demand side: high interest rates persist longer → suppresses demand for consumer electronics such as PCs and mobile phones.
The only possible hedging variable:
The "Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing" sub-item in PPI, as well as NAND contract/spot prices. If the semiconductor sub-item is also strong, SanDisk's fundamentals are supported and may fluctuate; if the semiconductor sub-item is weak, then both macro and fundamentals suffer, leading to a more bearish short-term outlook.
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
Risk warning: The above is macro analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Here's a perspective that trading is more valuable than reading the news: good news doesn't always lead to price increases.
TSMC's Q3 results exceeded market expectations and even raised the full-year guidance, which should be a strong boost for chip stocks. So what happened? The semiconductor index kept dropping, and Samsung and SK Hynix remained in the red. The news was clearly positive, but the prices just didn't cooperate.
This kind of divergence makes experienced traders perk up. It usually indicates two things: first, the good news has already been priced in, so once the positive news is fully out, selling follows; second, there might be stronger bearish forces suppressing the market, such as valuation and capital contraction across the entire AI chain. When news and price conflict, always trust the price.
The same applies to crypto: if one day there's big good news but $BTC doesn't rise and instead falls, that's not an opportunity, it's a warning.STRK unlocks 127 million tokens monthly for listing and circulation; instead of falling, the price rises after unlocking, interpreting the market signals released
Basic data: This unlock involves 127 million tokens, accounting for about 1.7% of the current circulating supply; the unlocked amount is very low compared to the daily trading volume, so the selling pressure is not large.
1. Negative news fully digested in advance, the event has landed
The market has long known the schedule of unlocking on the 15th of each month for six consecutive months. Before unlocking, the market had already declined, releasing panic sentiment; shorts positioned early, and risk-averse funds exited in advance.
The unlocking event means the negative news has been fully absorbed.
When the official unlocking day arrives, the expected sell orders have already been realized, with no new panic shocks; shorts close positions, and long-term funds buy on the dip, resulting in a price increase rather than a drop after unlocking. This is the core signal.
2. Unlocking ≠ selling all; a large amount of tokens are staked and held long-term
Unlocking only means the tokens are no longer locked; it does not mean holders must dump them on the secondary market.
These unlocked tokens belong to early investors and contributors. Some holders are optimistic about the 2027 independent L1, native quantum resistance, and BTCFi strategy, choosing to stake and hold long-term after unlocking, not selling on the market. The actual sell volume entering the secondary market is far less than 127 million tokens.
Without a large amount of tokens dumped at once, selling pressure is naturally light.
3. Strong fundamental narrative attracts buying power that exceeds potential selling pressure
Funds recognize STRK's unique long-term value, generating buy orders to cover the new supply:
1. The ZK-STARK native quantum-resistant narrative; the market is beginning to value long-term quantum security risks;
2. The 2027 plan to transform into an independent L1, connecting BTC+ETH asset systems, with ongoing development of strkBTC, privacy pools, and BTCFi ecosystem;
3. Funds are selectively allocating in the ZK track, diverting from other projects and actively entering to absorb tokens.
The new buying power brought by the fundamental narrative exceeds the potential selling pressure from unlocking, so the price rises.
4. The unlock volume is relatively small compared to market depth and easily absorbed by liquidity
127 million tokens account for only about 1.7% of the circulating supply. Compared to STRK's huge daily trading volume, the potential sell amount is a very small proportion of daily turnover.
Market liquidity is sufficient; as long as market sentiment warms, this new supply can be easily absorbed, making it hard to cause a dump. In a bear market with low volume, unlocking of the same scale would easily cause a sharp drop.In the past two days, US Treasury yields have been fluctuating above 5%, and ETH has been impacted much more than Bitcoin. Bitcoin dropped 2.6% in a single day, while ETH fell by 5%, currently priced at 2371.
The underlying logic is actually quite simple.
One of ETH's core selling points over the past two years has been staking yields, which many institutions value as an interest-bearing digital asset allocation.
But currently, ETH staking annualized yield is only about 2.2%.
In contrast, even though the 10-year US Treasury yield has slightly declined, it still remains at 5.1%. Investors can buy and wait for returns without bearing the risk of price drops.
On one side, there's 2.2% yield with price volatility risk; on the other, a stable 5.1% yield. From a fund manager's perspective, capital naturally flows to US Treasuries.
Bitcoin doesn't have this issue; it is positioned as digital gold and does not attract funds through interest. So when US Treasury yields rise, ETH is the first to be outcompeted.
This also explains the recent phenomenon of a $200 million single-day outflow from ETH ETFs: it's not that people have lost long-term confidence in Ethereum, but that holding at current prices lacks cost-effectiveness.
Therefore, ETH's trend will be weaker than Bitcoin's. In terms of market action, today's low touched 2332, with 2315 as a key support level; if broken, look toward 2200. On the upside, only reclaiming 2500 would indicate a phase of relief.
Going forward, only if US Treasury yields truly decline will ETH's interest advantage reemerge, at which point its rebound strength will likely surpass Bitcoin's.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
No ? The "evolution" from TSMC — TSMC's financial report tells the market that high-performance computing revenue has significantly increased, and semiconductor companies are transforming into AI infrastructure companies! Let's briefly review TSMC's financial report: in short, it's strong, very strong, even stronger than previously expected! #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 1. USD revenue grew 41% year-over-year, but net profit soared 69%, with an EPS of $4.6. This means the current AI cycle is not just about increasing capital expenditure to drive revenue growth, but a comprehensive profitability driven by capacity utilization, product upgrade mix, and advanced process premiums. 2. In Q3 platform revenue, HPC (high-performance computing) increased from 57% last year to 68%, indicating that TSMC has become a comprehensive AI infrastructure company and occupies an important charging point upstream in AI capital expenditure. 3. Wafer revenue: 2NM revenue rapidly grew to 8%, and 7NM and below revenue quickly accounted for 79%. The core revenue focus is gradually shifting to the 2NM series, with management guiding that 2NM capacity will double by 2027. 4. The full-year USD revenue growth forecast for 2026 has been raised again to 44%. The CEO stated that demand for advanced processes remains very strong, and the AI supply-demand gap still exists. There is no short-term concern about TSMC's orders decreasing. 5. The CEO also mentioned that as AI models become open-source and widespread, the threshold for AI usage will lower, thereby expanding final demand. Of course, a strong financial report does not necessarily mean the stock price will be strong; today's TSMC stock price confirms this! In fact, the decline in TSMC's stock price has valueFor those trading on leverage, keep an eye on a number you usually don't watch today: the 10-year US Treasury yield plunged 13 basis points in one day, falling back to around 5.07%. Don't underestimate this drop.
Recently, this yield surged above 5.3%, hitting a multi-year high, acting like a heavy stone pressing down on all risk assets—borrowing costs are high, discount rates are elevated, and both crypto and tech stocks have been suppressed. Now that it’s turning downward, it means the pressure has temporarily eased.
My interpretation is: this likely opens a one-to-three-week breathing room, not the start of a big bull run, but a rebound after being overly stretched. If this judgment proves wrong, watch whether the yield climbs back to its previous high. Short-term traders shouldn’t mistake this breather for a reversal to chase; a rebound at $BTC’s current level without volume support shouldn’t be considered a bottom.The Philadelphia Semiconductor index evaporated over two trillion in seven trading days, with the screen full of people cutting losses and exiting, Samsung and Hynix getting hit every day. At such a time, I did something counterintuitive: I didn’t short more, but instead took long positions on the oversold memory stocks.
Let me clarify the logic first, don’t take it as a bottom-fishing belief. The most profitable shorting happens during the trend acceleration phase, but when panic has scared everyone to the floor, foreign capital has been selling for more than ten consecutive weeks, and valuations have dropped to the bottom of the cycle range, the odds of continuing to short start to worsen — at this point, you’re not betting on a fundamental reversal, but on a rebound after emotions have overshot.
This is a typical low-frequency big bet: not trading every day, but waiting for the crowd to push one direction to the extreme, then standing on the opposite side. Positions have hard stop-losses; if the daily chart truly breaks key support, I immediately admit my mistake and exit, never holding on or adding to shorts. Catching the oversold means catching the odds, not faith.The 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections, Less Than Three Weeks Until Voting Day
The U.S. midterm elections are not just a congressional election. They could affect the Trump administration's policy space for the next two years, U.S. economic policy, global financial markets, geopolitics, and the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and overall cryptocurrency markets you have been following.
First Layer: Election Results
How many congressional seats each of the Republican and Democratic parties wins
Second Layer: Changes in Political Power
Bills, budgets, regulations, investigations, and government personnel
Third Layer: Economic Policy Expectations
Taxes, tariffs, fiscal deficits, interest rate expectations, and regulation
Fourth Layer: Markets and Real Life
U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar, gold, BTC, ETH, corporate investment, and employment
It will change the intensity of government investigations, oversight, and political games
Congress has the power to investigate and oversee the executive branch. If the opposition party controls key positions in the House or Senate, it may arrange more hearings, request government officials to provide documents, and investigate policy implementation.
Possible consequences include:
Government departments needing to allocate more resources to respond to congressional investigations.
Policy disputes entering the public eye more frequently.
Negotiation time for major bills possibly lengthening.
Conflicts between the two parties over budgets, debt ceilings, and government appropriations.
However, increased investigations do not necessarily mean the government is breaking the law, nor does it mean a government shutdown is certain. The real impact depends on the investigation content, congressional negotiations, and specific legislative processes. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins $SUI is up ~42% in a month, but DeFi TVL sits near $550M against a $2.6B peak last October, and daily active addresses are ~121K vs a 2.2M high. Price is moving without usage confirming it. My read: neutral into the Nov 1 unlock. Hashi mainnet and Samsung Wallet USDC (late Oct) are real catalysts, but they have to show up in TVL first. Levels: $1.13, last week’s high, and $1.00. I turn bearish on a daily close under $1 with TVL flat.
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins This $ETH 100x long position is currently at 2347.43, with an unrealized profit of +415%. Many people sold at 2410, but why am I still holding? Let me explain the market logic.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the 2315.26 wick tested support and held, so I entered at 2347. The price has rallied since then. The upper MA20 (2466) and MA30 (2486) form a dense resistance zone; 2420 is just a midpoint, not a selling point. Volume hasn't shrunk, and MA5/MA10 have already turned upward, so this rebound isn't over yet.
But the key isn't about being bullish or bearish—it's about position sizing. With 100x leverage this high, I accepted before opening the position: stop loss below 2347, no chasing or selling at 2420, and decide on reducing position in the 2466-2486 range. Most people panic after a 100-point profit, fearing profit retracement, which essentially means they didn't plan their take-profit levels before opening the position. I've suffered that loss before; now with an unrealized profit, I'm calm.
However, 100x leverage is a double-edged sword. Not selling at 2420 doesn't mean I'll stubbornly hold at 2486. When hitting resistance, it's time to take profits—take some now, leave some for the market to decide overnight. Profit comes from knowledge; loss comes from greed. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
CPI just exceeded expectations, and PPI followed suit; this data combination is not very friendly to the market.
US September PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year, with expectations at 5.3% and the previous value around 5.5%, so this is quite a jump. Month-on-month it rose 1.3%, while expectations were only 0.5%. Core PPI also exceeded expectations both year-on-year and month-on-month. Coupled with yesterday's CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%, and core CPI at 2.6%, above the expected 2.5%, both sets of inflation data are continuously on the hot side.
What does this mean? It means the root cause of inflation hasn't been eliminated. Energy prices are rising, commodity prices are rising, and production-side pressures are still transmitting to the consumer side. The market previously bet on no rate hike in October, but now that logic needs to be recalculated. Expectations for another rate hike within the year are heating up, US Treasury yields and the dollar index will rise again, and valuation pressure on risk assets will return.
However, there is no consensus within the Federal Reserve. Daly said a rate hike might be necessary but not urgent. Goolsbee said more data needs to be seen. Walsh will have a dialogue with the IMF president at 11:30 this morning to see how he responds to this inflation data. If he emphasizes stubborn inflation and leans hawkish, the market will have to continue to endure. If he downplays the single-month data and leans neutral, sentiment can stabilize.
For BTC, the short-term pressure is direct. The 80,000 level is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears; breaking it may trigger stop-loss selling and a downward probe. Resistance is between 83,500 and 84,500, support is between 81,500 and 82,000. $BTC On-chain anomalies don't play dead. In the past 24 hours, a giant whale increased holdings by 5,000 BTC, equivalent to $570 million, while multiple large ETH transfers occurred, indicating that smart money above 80,000 is not retreating but accumulating again. On Hyperliquid, after taking a $6.83 million 50x long position, a reverse $13.45 million short position was opened; this reversal should be watched for, as there is short-term selling pressure testing.
The current price is 82,558. The liquidation pressure above is indeed not significant, but technical indicators suggest a need for a pullback. A large number of long liquidation points are accumulated around 80,609 below; pushing down to this level would trigger a chain liquidity explosion, which could easily lead to a V-shaped rebound. Just closed a small old position climbing six floors, the phone vibrated, price is still grinding below 83,000, no breakout yet.
No chasing in operations. Wait for a pullback to 81,200–81,900 to gradually buy long positions, with stop-loss defense below 79,800; if it breaks below, accept the loss and don't hold on. Take profit first looks at 84,200, and after breaking through, then look at 85,600. Position size should not exceed 20%, don't use 50x leverage as a template—that's a death sentence.
$BTC
#Anthropic称三季度营收升至168亿美元并实现盈利
@OKX星球 The whole market is looking for a bottom, but institutions are not panicking at all. I reviewed yesterday's ETF data and found something unusual.
First, about $BTC: there was a net outflow of 31.44 million yesterday. BlackRock sold 13.34 million, Fidelity sold 18.36 million. They had just bought over 20 million the day before, but sold it all the next day. This shows institutions are just testing the waters with BTC; once CPI exploded, they immediately pulled back.
Next, $ETH had a net outflow of only 51,900. Grayscale sold a little, BlackRock sold a little, basically no movement. The price dropped to 2315, but institutions neither bought nor sold; they are all watching.
$SOL is even more interesting: net outflow of 12,200, only Bitwise is selling. This is the 8th consecutive day of outflows, but compared to tens of millions on previous days, today's volume is almost negligible. The main force driving the dump is no longer ETFs, but long liquidations in contracts.
My conclusion: institutions are not panicking; they are waiting. The selling pressure on ETH and SOL is actually decreasing. The current drop is mainly long liquidation killing longs. The SOL long-short ratio is still 2.68; the bulls haven't fully fled, and the chain reaction hasn't ended.
I still have no positions. Bottom fishing in this market is gambling. I'll wait until the liquidation data is mostly out and the market stabilizes completely.
Key levels: BTC 80000/78000, ETH 2300/2200, SOL 100/95
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Brothers, the opportunity has come again, the dog whales are giving us a chance!
I guess many brothers have been tricked into bottom-fishing now, shouting "bull return, quick recovery" after a sharp rally.
But I am going to act in the opposite way with you.
The previous 2700 short position, I perfectly took profit and closed it at 2370.
Now this sharp rebound to 2450, I decisively rushed in again!
Why dare to continue shorting at this time?
Look at this 15-minute chart, $ETH dropped sharply from 2529 to 2315, a plunge of over 200 points, then made a very standard V-shaped rebound.
Retail investors see this deep V and get excited, thinking the bottom has arrived, rushing to buy the dip.
But this is exactly the classic bull trap set by the dog whales!
The volume-shrinking rebound after the sharp drop has no substantial positive support, it’s merely emotional repair.
The 2450-2480 area above is a previous dense chip lock-in zone, heavy resistance pressing down.
The dog whales use this V rebound to lure in chasing retail investors, preparing fuel for the next round of downward attack.
This rebound is an excellent entry point for the bears.
Look at my recent entry, shorted directly at 2444.46.
Although there is a slight floating loss now, it is completely within expectations.
I have sufficient margin reserved to guard against its final extreme spike.
As long as it doesn’t break the previous high of 2529, the bearish structure is unbreakable.
The script below is very clear: the first target is a direct retest of 2400, breaking below means the previous low of 2315. Once 2315 is broken, it will accelerate the plunge.
Trading is always counterintuitive.
When most people think a reversal is coming, that’s often when the trap is deepest.
Brothers who want to follow, strictly set stop losses and control your position size.
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." We bears have locked in the dividends of this rebound!
$BTC
$SOL
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Tonight at 20:30, five consecutive releases, an unavoidable data storm for the crypto world
Tonight at 20:30, five major US data points will be released simultaneously, all closely watched by the Federal Reserve, directly impacting the interest rate hike path, and are the current core drivers for BTC and ETH.
Let's look at them one by one:
Initial jobless claims, previous value 197,000, expected 200,000. Above 200,000 means weakening employment, favorable for rate cuts, good for crypto; below 200,000 means employment remains strong, unfavorable.
September retail sales month-over-month, previous 1.10%, expected 0.30%. Above 0.3% means strong consumption, inflation likely to fluctuate, unfavorable; below 0.3% means economic weakness, favorable. The previous value was very high, the market has already priced in a significant cooling; if the drop is insufficient, it is a hidden negative.
September PPI year-over-year, previous 5.40%, expected 5.3%. Above 5.3% means inflation stickiness, unfavorable; below 5.3% favorable.
September PPI month-over-month, previous 0.40%, expected 0.50%. This is a potential risk point: if the release is ≥0.5%, upstream inflation rebounds, reinforcing expectations of high interest rates or even rate hikes, which would hit the crypto market hard.
October New York Fed manufacturing index, previous 7.6, expected 10.25. Above expectation means strong economy, unfavorable; below expectation favorable.
The five major data points resonate in the same direction, volatility is bound to increase. My advice: do not bet on direction before the data release; after the release, watch if BTC, ETH, and SOL can simultaneously stop falling. Looking at a single needle is useless; the key is whether funds will follow. Tonight is not about who guesses right, but who survives longer. The recent US CPI and PPI data release does not bode well for the crypto market in the short term.
In September, the US CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month; more notably, the PPI surged 1.3% month-over-month, far exceeding market expectations. One reflects the price pressure consumers bear, the other reflects changes in production costs. Both sets of data being hot simultaneously indicates that the US inflation problem is not as easy to solve as imagined.
For $BTC and $ETH, the real trouble is not the inflation figures themselves, but the possibility that the Fed's rate cut expectations may continue to cool. If interest rates remain high for longer, market liquidity will be hard to improve quickly, and capital will naturally become more cautious. Coupled with market leverage and sentiment effects, if key support levels break, further selling pressure cannot be ruled out.
The double negative from CPI and PPI does not necessarily mean the crypto market will continue a one-sided decline. There will definitely be an oversold rebound that makes both bulls and bears uncomfortable. The market will fiercely harvest in the current situation, so I choose to stay put for now. Respond to changes with stability.
Be cautious in the short term, don’t rush to bottom-fish, and don’t blindly chase rebounds. The key focus next is whether Bitcoin can hold recent lows and whether volume supports the rebound. If it’s just a low-volume rebound that fails to break resistance for a long time, it looks more like a weak recovery; only when the price firmly reclaims key levels, and market sentiment and capital improve simultaneously, will the rebound be more convincing. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ The shockwave from the 3.7% CPI hasn't faded yet, and the PPI is ready to strike again tonight.💥 Don't rush to call a bull market; first, see where this knife is stabbing.
Let's look at tonight's expectations: PPI year-on-year is expected to be 2.7%, month-on-month 0.4%, and core month-on-month 0.3%. If it meets or exceeds expectations, it means upstream costs are still squeezing downstream, giving the Fed more confidence to raise rates again in October; if it's softer, it's like handing the market an ice pack.🧊
Focus on two key points: first, whether PPI and CPI will form a "double blast"; second, whether service prices continue to stick. If both sides are strong, rate hike expectations will rise again, and the 81,000 level for Bitcoin will be at risk. If broken, 80,000 and 78,000 will be lined up for testing.📉
What about the market? Bitcoin is tugging near 81,000, with 15-minute and 1-hour RSI at 24 and 11 respectively, indicating short-term oversold conditions and a need for a rebound; but the MACD green bars are still lengthening, so the bears aren't off work yet. The ceiling is between 82,500 and 83,000, the floor is 81,000, and if broken, look to 80,000.📊
Remember, CPI is the heavy punch, PPI is the follow-up strike; not necessarily fatal, but prone to stabbing again.🫠#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 - $8.9 billion withdrawn from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in one day. Is this number big? Normally, it wouldn't be earth-shattering, but placed in the same week that TSMC reported record profits, the context changes. Let's start with the facts. BlackRock and other ETFs sold about $260 million worth of Bitcoin in a single day, and Ethereum saw an outflow of $129 million, totaling a net outflow of $389 million. This isn't a small fund rebalancing; it's top-tier products simultaneously letting go. This synchronicity is more worth watching than the amount itself. My first reaction wasn't panic but to check TSMC's line. TSMC's Q3 profits hit a record high, indicating that the AI narrative is still being backed by real money in traditional markets. Logically, risk appetite shouldn't be poor. But crypto had net selling on the same day, what does that mean? It means some institutions now treat BTC as a risk asset highly correlated with the Nasdaq, rather than an independent digital gold. When valuations in the US tech sector have already run high, they choose to take some profits first and wait for the next catalyst. This leads to an easily overlooked point: this outflow may not be bearish on crypto but more like cross-market rebalancing. TSMC's strength has increased the attractiveness of AI equity, and funds are moving from crypto ETFs to chase that certainty. BTC and ETH here act as the source of reduced positions, not abandoned targets. Looking deeper at the transmission: Bitcoin is under pressure, Ethereum follows down, and altcoins will suffer more because altcoins rely on overflow sentiment. Once the leading ETFs have net redemptions, the most marginal narratives bleed first. Short-term trading rhythm will lean defensive, and rebounds will be easily suppressed Last night, the CPI exceeded expectations, completely crushing the rate cut narrative and causing the market to reprice the risk of rate hikes. $BTC and $ETH weakened in response, but what is truly worth worrying about is not the decline itself, but the market's quietly forming chain of concerns about "another rate hike." This round of macro factors is significant. Going forward, we must closely watch three lines: the direction of the US dollar index, changes in US Treasury yields, and whether officials recalibrate their statements and expectations. Any loosening in any of these could instantly rewrite the short-term rhythm. My judgment is: in the short term, there will first be a small-scale recovery, then most likely a continuation of the downward trend. Under this macro pressure, if a rapid rebound does occur, I would actually see it as a signal of a strong trend returning—but the probability of this is very, very low. Yesterday, my $ETH short position was unexpectedly stopped out for profit, and I have now re-entered a short position at a low level. This rhythm of passive stop-profit and re-entry precisely indicates that the current market volatility structure is not friendly to shorts, but the direction has not changed. Right now, two key levels must be closely monitored: whether $BTC can break below 80,000 and whether $ETH can break below 2,360. Once these two levels are lost, that will be the real starting gun for trend acceleration. Mainstream coins like $SOL will most likely face pressure simultaneously, and the linkage effect cannot be ignored. The core logic in one sentence: CPI has extinguished the rate cut fantasy, rate hike expectations have re-entered, rebounds are noise, and breakouts are the signal. #USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus Can't stop laughing, a scammer got robbed by another scammer!
In this Ledger wallet theft incident, one of the biggest victims is actually a scammer himself. He lost over 60 $BTC, more than four million USD. All this money was obtained through scams.
His scamming method was a "task scam":
First, he hired people to fake orders and write positive reviews for products,
then told participants, "Your account shows a negative balance,
you have to front the money yourself before you can get paid."
— Front the money first.
On September 22, he transferred the scammed money into three Ledger addresses.
On October 9, all three addresses were completely emptied.
He used the "you must front the money first" trick to scam many people.
Then he used the same method to send the money out himself.
This is not just funny; it shows that on-chain, "who is scamming whom" can reverse:
Those who are victims today may be perpetrators tomorrow;
those who are perpetrators today may be taken down by others the day after tomorrow.
#Ledger调查东南亚经销商渠道资金损失 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
$NFLX Growth Is Slowing, but Advertising Could Be the Next Big Catalyst!
Netflix will release its Q3 earnings on October 20, and the market is watching two key factors: revenue growth and the expansion of its advertising business.
According to the company’s guidance, Q3 revenue is expected to reach $12.86 billion, up approximately 12% year over year. Operating margin is projected at 33.2%, compared with 28.2% in the same period last year.
#DailyOrbit After scanning the entire platform, everything is red except ZEC, which surged from 1073 back to 1204 as if injected with adrenaline.
When something abnormal happens, there must be a catch. Is this a desperate counterattack or a trap set by the manipulators?
I stared at this big bullish candle for a long time but eventually moved my mouse away from the close position button.
Why not exit?
Because this rally simply doesn't hold up under scrutiny.
First, the 4-hour volume is even lower than during the dump, purely fueled by short covering and retail chasing longs—an illusionary fire.
Second, there is a heavy resistance from 1240 to 1300 with trapped positions; this small buying pressure trying to break through? Dream on.
Third, the NU7 upgrade benefit on November 5 hasn't materialized yet, ETF funds are still flowing out, and there's no real liquidity in the market; any push up is just a castle in the air.
Fourth, the long-short ratio is 53% to 47%, and retail investors are starting to think the bottom is in. Every time there's consensus bullishness, that's the most dangerous moment.
Right now, shorting offers an almost free risk-reward ratio.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Anthropic称三季度营收升至168亿美元并实现盈利 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Yesterday's CPI and today's PPI were both bearish, dropping from 840 all the way down to 797, then oversold rebound stabilized above 820.
On the 14th, I anticipated the CPI bearish impact in advance. This morning, I observed the 4-hour lows continuously rising, with 820 as the primary resistance. If it holds above 820, the upside space will open, so I suggested going long near 810, targeting a break above 820 to 842.
The evening SMC liquidity capture and the logic of going long if 790 does not break are also very reliable and effective. The spike near 80000 dipped to around 797, clearing and sweeping out dense long stop losses below. After the spike, it quickly recovered, perfectly filling the 795-800 FVG gap, but the 843-852 gap above has not yet been filled and still exerts a liquidity magnet effect, which I clearly marked in my static posted chart.
In summary, the rhythm control these two days has been very precise. Today's PPI data, relying on SMC gap fill and liquidity sweep logic, accurately held the 790 support to catch the rebound. However, note that FVG gap fills are not 100% guaranteed but are high probability events. In the SMC system, such gaps have a magnetic effect, which is the gap fill. Therefore, I believe the 843-852 area is also very likely to be tested.
Go long on BTC at 810-820, target 843-852.
Go long on ETH on a pullback to 2400, target 2530, break through to 2623 $BTC $ETH Hello brothers and sisters
Brothers! The whole market is searching for a bottom, but institutions are not afraid at all. I reviewed yesterday's ETF data and found an anomaly.
BTC net outflow was 31.44 million, with BlackRock and Fidelity selling 13.34 million and 18.36 million respectively. They just bought over 20 million the day before and cleared it the next day, indicating institutions were only testing the waters with BTC and immediately stopped once CPI exploded.
ETH net outflow was only 51,900. Grayscale sold a little, BlackRock sold a little, basically no movement. The price dropped to 2315, and institutions neither buy nor sell, just watching.
SOL net outflow was 12,200, only Bitwise was selling. This is the 8th consecutive day of outflow, but compared to tens of millions in previous days, this amount is almost negligible. The main force crushing the price is no longer ETFs but long liquidations in contracts.
My conclusion: institutions are not panicking; they are waiting. The selling pressure on ETH and SOL is actually decreasing. The current drop is mainly long liquidation killing longs.
The SOL long-short ratio is still 2.68; longs haven't fully exited, and the chain reaction explosion is not over yet.
I still have no positions now; bottom fishing in this market is a gamble. I'll wait until the liquidation data is mostly out and the market stabilizes before considering.
Key levels: BTC 80000/78000, ETH 2300/2200, SOL 100/95
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Q2 free cash flow dropped from $2.27 billion to $1.53 billion (due to one-time factors like the Warner Bros. deal termination fee). Secondly, the company reduced the frequency of viewing data disclosures, increasing market distrust; annual content investment exceeds $17 billion, and with Disney, Amazon, and Paramount launching multi-front attacks, advertisers' budgets may not necessarily cooperate.
In the short term, with low expectations and high odds, "meeting targets" is not difficult; the challenge is whether the advertising data justifies the term "new highlight." In the mid-term, a combination of 12% growth plus 30%+ profit margin remains a rare asset among large-cap companies, and the earnings report mainly brings valuation volatility.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins The financial report is very impressive, with AI computing power demand continuously being realized, and 2nm successfully contributing to revenue; however, growth is highly dependent on AI clients, and combined with the cost and geopolitical pressures brought by building factories in the US, the risks behind the high growth cannot be ignored.PPI Supplement: The culprit for price increases is energy, but rate hike pricing did not continue to rise
Core PPI year-over-year 5.0% (expected 4.4%), also significantly exceeding expectations; this time the driver of price increases is energy—energy prices rose 10.8% in a single month, gasoline +20.3%, contributing about half of the commodity price increase, and food also rose 1.2% (BLS, via Barron's).
September retail sales +0.8% (expected +0.3%), but mainly supported by gasoline price increases, other consumption was average, and real wages are still declining (Reuters).
Putting it together means "business costs are rising, consumers are still spending," so inflation cooling is unlikely. A strange point: October rate hike pricing did not continue to rise, remaining around 30% (LSEG 29%, CME about 33.8%), basically unchanged from before the PPI release—the market seems not to believe there will be action in October, with bets concentrated in December (MarketWatch).
FBI teams up with Brooklyn prosecutors to shut down 241 crypto scam websites
Seized 112 servers, recovered about $300,000, no arrests yet. This is a three-year case: an Eastern European scam network targeted Russian-speaking populations in the U.S., using Russian-language Facebook ads and fake investment advisors to lure coin purchases and transfers to fake platforms; accounts were locked or "tax fees" demanded upon withdrawal, and they pretended to "help recover" funds to conduct secondary scams.#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
I think the next focus for Netflix is no longer just subscriber growth, but whether the advertising business can truly support a second growth curve.
Slowing user growth is not necessarily a bad thing; the key is how much profit each user can generate.
But one question is worth considering: if advertising revenue grows rapidly but the stock price doesn't rise, is the market already pricing in the good news, or is there a bigger hidden risk?
Do you think Netflix is currently an opportunity or a valuation trap? Three bearish candles, three medical records 🩺
$BTC: Emotional cold 🤧
The market turns cold, triggering a chain reaction of sell orders. But on-chain, no large holders are collectively withdrawing; there is still support near the 400-day moving average, and signs of accumulation at low levels remain. The weakness lies in sentiment, not in holdings.
$ETH: Capital anemia 💸
ETF net outflows continue, wallet balances are moving out, and some holders are actively reducing positions. It’s not just dragged down by the market; the capital side is truly contracting. Recovery depends on new money returning, which is more difficult.
$SOL: Leverage sprain ⚙️
Perpetual shorts are increasing, leverage is pushing the price down; spot outflows are limited, and holdings have not changed hands on a large scale. The downtrend is fierce, originating mainly from derivatives.
Don’t just look at the ranking by decline, as it’s easy to mistake emotional fluctuations for trends. Break it down with on-chain data: who is truly selling, and who is just being dragged down. BTC is seeing sentiment warming, ETH is seeing capital returning, SOL is clearing leverage. Knowing where the pressure comes from tells you what to be cautious about and what to ignore 🔍#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $BTC's current market concern is not the decline itself, but the rebound after the drop, which can mislead people into thinking the market has stabilized.
US September CPI exceeded expectations, and PPI was also bearish. The market started worrying about the Fed raising interest rates, putting pressure on risk assets. Bitcoin once dipped near $79,725. After the bearish news settled, it began to rebound and is currently around $82,000. From a technical perspective, the key is whether it can break through the $83,000 level above; otherwise, the market recovery cannot be confirmed. On the downside, watch if the $80,000 support level can hold.
Looking at $ETH, recent performance has been weak, hitting a low of $2,315, now rebounding to $2,430. The focus next is whether it can stabilize above $2,400 and break through $2,500. This rapid rebound after a big drop indicates there is capital willing to buy at $2,300. However, given that US inflation and Treasury yields have not improved, this can only be seen as a short-term technical correction, not a confirmed market reversal.
My current feeling is that this is an oversold rebound. Going forward, the key is whether the macro environment can ease inflation pressure, whether $BTC can break through resistance levels, if trading volume can keep up, and whether active buying during the rebound strengthens. Only if these improve simultaneously will the rebound be more sustainable. Until these signals appear, caution is advised; do not mistake a short-term rebound for a new upward trend. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？ #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins More worryingly, the rate of leaving (Trumd) in the US doubled over the same period, showing that the main market was saturated. The reason comes from the price increase, tightening password sharing and fierce competition from Disney+, Amazon. This proves that the growth model based on the number of subscribers is no longer sustainable, forcing Netflix to switch to ARPU and profit optimization.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Netflix's next growth driver is not just membership subscriptions but advertising.
As the user market saturates, the advertising segment becomes a new breakthrough point. The core issue: whether advertising revenue will actually increase enough to offset the slowdown in subscriptions while maintaining stable profit margins?
It is necessary to closely monitor advertising revenue, profit margins, and financial guidance in the upcoming report.
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins