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SOL holds above $100, but ETF money hasn't pushed the price up yet
My conclusion: SOL is slightly bullish, but I'll wait around the $100 mark first.
The market sees SOL reclaiming $100, combined with the continuous inflow of funds into the US SOL ETF, with cumulative net inflows exceeding $1.2 billion, making it easy to conclude "institutions are bottom-fishing, the next phase will rise."
But what I'm focusing on is another question: the funds have already come in, so why isn't the price strong enough yet?
When geopolitical risks heated up a few days ago, SOL's decline was significantly greater than BTC's, indicating it is still a high-beta asset that the market prioritizes for reduction. Now that $100 is reclaimed, it only proves that someone is absorbing the sell-off, but it doesn't prove the trend has restarted.
My observation criteria:
Holding $100 steady: maintain slightly bullish.
Breaking through $103–105: confirms buying pressure is turning into price strength.
Falling back below $98 and failing to recover: this rebound judgment fails.
ETF inflows are evidence, but the price's reaction to the positive news is the real signal I want to trade on.SpaceX Regains Wall Street Favor, Hidden Risks Under High Expectations
$SPCX
Recently, SpaceX has once again received optimistic ratings from Wall Street institutions. Oppenheimer raised the target price for SPCX from $250 to $280, with the core logic coming from AI business. Analysts judge that SpaceX's computing power is rapidly expanding, planning to increase computing capacity from 1.4GW in 2026 to 10GW in 2027.
However, the current stock price is only around $140, not far from the IPO issue price of $135, so it should not be attracted solely by the $280 target price.
The pressure from equity unlocking is a short-term negative that cannot be ignored. About 319 million shares will become available for sale on September 9, and a new round of unlocking will come on September 24. The increased stock supply will continue to suppress the market.
Although SpaceX's long-term development prospects are promising, the company's strength does not mean the stock price will continue to rise. Currently, the company's market value is close to $1.9 trillion, with a forward P/E ratio near 200 times. The market has already fully priced in future growth expectations.
SpaceX may grow into a great company, but that does not mean SPCX has investment value at any price. Facing high valuations combined with unlocking selling pressure, it is not advisable to chase prices blindly. It is better to wait until the unlocking pressure is fully released and then look for a more cost-effective entry opportunity.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 September 15th is the decisive day! SEC Chair speaks out: Will the CLARITY Act pass this time?
Brothers, SEC Chair Atkins has come out again to call for action, saying the Senate will hold a procedural vote on September 15th, hoping to get the CLARITY Act to Trump's desk for signing by the end of the month.
Honestly, the industry's expectations are very low right now; the probability on Polymarket is only about 15%. The resistance isn't from the industry itself but purely political maneuvering—the Democrats want to use this to block Trump, since his family is deeply involved with crypto assets, and they can't agree on conflict of interest clauses.
Atkins is so confident it will pass mainly because the Republicans are unanimously supporting it, and they only need to pull in 4 Democrats to reach the 60-vote threshold. Institutions like Coinbase have been lobbying hard in DC recently, but time is tight, with a bunch of messy issues queued for votes in September.
Regarding price impact, if the bill passes, it's a long-term positive; BTC, ETH, and SOL's commodity status will be directly written into law, and ETF funds will continue to flow in. But if it doesn't pass on September 15th, expect a short-term drop, especially for altcoins like SOL that are relying on ETF lifelines. Before the news is finalized, the market will likely price in pessimism early $BTC $ETH $SOL AI capital expenditure is massively spilling over from GPUs. Nvidia's data center revenue for a single quarter reached $89 billion, still the big winner, but more companies are starting to share the bill: Dell's AI server backlog has reached $95 billion; Broadcom expects AI semiconductor revenue of $230 billion by 2028; Marvell secured a long-term custom chip order from Google; HPE's networking business is growing alongside AI data centers. Money continues to flow to the periphery—Vertiv acquired a power access company to solve the "power balancing" problem, and SLB invested $4.1 billion to enter the data center cooling sector. Training still relies on GPUs, but inference is driving ASIC customization, with networking and interconnect costs soaring as cluster scale increases. Infrastructure bottlenecks such as power and cooling are generating new expenditures. In the future, cloud providers' capital expenditures will be increasingly difficult to directly translate into Nvidia's sales, as money spreads along the supply chain into servers, chips, networking, power, and engineering services. The U.S. aims to become the "Crypto Capital," but the market remains stagnant despite favorable legislation.
Regulatory sentiment is indeed warming up. The SEC Chair mentioned progress on the CLARITY Act, and the market hopes it will clarify the boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, providing clearer frameworks for listings, token issuance, and custody. In the long term, this reduces uncertainty and will smooth the compliance entry for institutions. However, before implementation, capital won’t rush in blindly, especially as the macro side is still focused on employment, interest rates, and the dollar, keeping risk asset valuations suppressed.
On-chain data and positions also signal caution: BTC has seen some large whales partially closing long positions to take profits, while still holding significant positions to observe; ETH shows more frequent transfers between exchanges and addresses, with selling pressure perceived stronger than BTC. Policy is the door, but capital is the foot. Without ETFs and sustained spot buying confirmation, the 80,000 area remains a tough screening zone.
Additionally, topics like transfer agent rules and securities on-chain are heating up, indicating narrative expansion, but in the short term, this leans more toward institutional expectations rather than immediate liquidity. In practice, don’t automatically equate "favorable passage" with a breakout; wait for volume, pullback support, and macro data to pass before deciding.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $BTC Tomorrow night at 20:30, the 90 minutes that will decide BTC's fate in September. July's non-farm payrolls are already negative. Tomorrow night's data is even more critical than the FOMC. Bitcoin has been stuck around 78,000 for a week, and the data will be released at 20:30 tomorrow night. Meanwhile, the ADP small non-farm payrolls released on Wednesday showed the private sector only added **38,000** jobs, below the expected 47,000, the worst since January this year. The job market is truly cooling down, not an illusion. On the other hand, after the hawkish tone at Jackson Hole by Waller, the probability of a rate hike in September has surged from 36% to **64%**. Brent crude oil is above $94, the Strait of Hormuz has daily news, and PCE inflation remains at 3.7%. New York Fed President Williams also changed his stance on Wednesday, from "rate levels are appropriate" to "no clear answer on whether further action is needed." The Fed is now stuck in a very tricky position: employment is cooling, but inflation is not. If tomorrow's data is strong — adding over 100,000 jobs and unemployment rate not rising — rate hike expectations will be locked in, the dollar and US Treasury yields will both rise, and BTC as a risk asset will be sold off first. If 76,200 support breaks, look for 75,000. If the data is weak (another cold surprise, below 40,000, or unemployment rate rises) **: September rate hike is basically off the table, risk appetite will instantly reverse, BTC will surge to 79,300, and if broken, look for 82,000. #Last data before FOMC: Non-farm payrolls this Friday. Bank-led digital currency network Cari completes $32.5 million in first external financing round, with all investors being banking institutions. Cari, a bank-led digital currency network, announced the completion of its first external financing round, totaling $32.5 million. All investors are banking institutions, including Cari's six design partner banks: First Horizon Bank, Huntington Bank, KeyBank, M&T Bank, Old National Bank, SouthState Bank, and Glacier Bank. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (a subsidiary of Stifel) served as the financial advisor for this transaction. Cari is a bank-led digital currency network positioned not as a crypto-native public chain project, but rather as a digital currency settlement and circulation network built on the traditional banking system. A notable feature of this round of financing is that all investors are banking institutions, not traditional venture capital or crypto funds. Among them, six design partner banks themselves are participants in network construction, meaning funds are deeply tied to business operations. Banks are not just financial investors but co-designers of network rules and operations. This model reflects that U.S. regional banks are actively intervening in digital currency infrastructure, hoping to take the initiative in future payments and settlement patterns rather than passively waiting for stablecoins or increasesBanks forming a consortium to issue stablecoins—can they really break through the moats of USDT and USDC?
21 traditional major banks plan to launch a USD stablecoin by 2027. It seems aggressive, but overturning the current landscape is almost impossible.
1. Will it change the landscape? No, this is about slicing a different piece of the pie. Banks' main battlefield is B2B cross-border settlement and institutional clearing, which are highly regulated and require deep KYC, inherently conflicting with DeFi's permissionless, high-efficiency model.
2. Core advantages of USDT and USDC
USDT: Extreme network effects and barrier-free liquidity. It is deeply embedded in global cross-border trade and gray markets, a low-friction inertia that banks cannot replicate.
USDC: DeFi-native composability. It is already the universal base layer for public chains, lending, and DEXs, with ecosystem depth built over time.
3. Personal choice and future trends
For daily Web3 interactions, I still prefer existing stablecoins—they are easy to use, universal, and free from cumbersome compliance restrictions; bank stablecoins are more like on-chain versions of SWIFT, suitable for large deposits/withdrawals and traditional wealth management.
The future market will fully evolve into a dual-track system
Institutional track - Bank system
Dominates B2B payments, RWA, and institutional clearing, focusing on credit and compliance.
Native track - Crypto system
Continues to lead DeFi, on-chain trading, and native payments.
The essence of banks entering the market is to enlarge the liquidity pool. The most valuable stablecoin for long-term use will always depend on the best balance of liquidity depth, freeze-resistance risk, and deposit/withdrawal convenience.
DYOR After igniting long-lost enthusiasm on the quiet Robinhood Chain, Circle's chain Arc is also coming, with the mainnet launching on 9/16, just two weeks away.
With Robinhood plus Circle, can they create a wave of DeFi Summer momentum?
New chains bring new opportunities, and Robinhood Chain has just set an example. It's still uncertain what phenomenal Meme will emerge on-chain, but the sellers (trading platforms) will definitely benefit from the incremental dividends brought by the new chain: Uniswap benefited from Robinhood Chain deployment, rising from $2.8 to $6.3 in two months; Lighter benefited from Robinhood Chain deployment, rising from $2 to $4.
So, should we pay attention to platforms that will deploy and launch simultaneously with the Arc mainnet? Currently, Uniswap, Aave, and edgeX are expected.
Everyone is familiar with Uniswap and Aave. As for edgeX, it is a Perp platform that will launch Arc's first 24/7 forex perpetual contracts on the first day of the Arc mainnet launch, as well as over 150 perpetual contract markets covering crypto, US stocks, and commodities. $AAVE $UNI BTCFi Narrative Hits a Setback: CORE Now, Narrative and Reality Are Tearing Apart
Once the biggest selling point: bringing Bitcoin hashrate and Bitcoin assets into DeFi, creating a Bitcoin power grid, a grand narrative that attracted a large number of staking users and institutional partners.
But after the node reward bug outbreak, a huge rift appeared between the narrative and reality.
✅ Narrative side: Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, BTC hashrate guarding the network, dual staking, numerous DApps deployed, multiple custodial institutions supporting, 100+ ecosystem applications launched.
❌ Reality side: consensus reward logic has a loophole, staking rewards suspended, exchange deposit channels restricted; external developers are cautious, some DApps delay version updates; community is divided, some firmly bullish believing the bad news is fully priced in, others fear token dilution and are wildly bearish.
Many confuse one logic: ecosystem documents, partner lists, roadmaps represent "can be done," not "already stably done."
The BTCFi sector itself is still in early stages, with no mature model; CORE is basically fixing the road while running.
We cannot completely deny the entire BTCFi concept, but we also cannot ignore the protocol flaws exposed this time.
Even if all bugs are fixed, the next brutal test is whether lstBTC liquid staking launch can bring real TVL, rather than relying solely on community faith.BTC shows strong resistance to decline, with 76,000‑80,000 becoming the core battleground range
$BTC $XAU
Currently, the overall macro market environment is under pressure, yet Bitcoin is demonstrating stronger resilience than gold. The $76,000‑$80,000 range has become a key zone determining the subsequent market trend.
Recently, various negative factors have been released intensively, and the overall market environment is weak. Oil prices surged past the $90 mark, US Treasury yields rose to 4.81%, gold fell from $4,700 to $4,300, and US stocks continued to decline simultaneously. Despite multiple bearish pressures, $BTC has not plunged sharply; its price remains trapped in the $76,000 to $80,000 range.
This phenomenon deserves close attention. The market is not lacking bearish catalysts, but Bitcoin has not experienced a deep sell-off, indirectly reflecting strong buying support at this level. However, risks remain hidden in the capital flow. BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $236 million in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT alone seeing an outflow of $201 million. The signal of institutional fund withdrawal cannot be ignored.
Currently, BTC is in a special phase of contention: weakening macro environment, ETF capital outflows, yet the price struggles to break down effectively.
If the support near $76,000 can hold firmly, and external pressures from US Treasury yields and oil prices gradually ease, BTC has the opportunity to launch another attack, challenging the $80,000 resistance and even testing the previous high of $81,400. But be cautious: if the support fails, multiple bearish factors will be released simultaneously, and the market will weaken rapidly. It is necessary to prepare for both scenarios.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm payrolls
#Earnings Watch: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance
#Robinhood chain volume surge, ARB revenue narrative heats up Due to Iran's strike on US military bases in the UAE and Kuwait, the situation in the Strait has further escalated. WTI oil prices rose again from 89 to around 93 in the afternoon, continuing to absorb the upper pressure zone. Currently, my average price for 3x short positions is above 89, and I am preparing to find an opportunity to close them all. Shorting crude oil has always been more difficult than going long, and the logic is simple: even if the US and Iran ceasefire, it will only be a temporary measure. Going long at low levels waiting for escalation has a much higher success rate than shorting at high levels waiting for peace.
The physical premise for the drop in June-July was that the US released strategic reserves into the market for sale, supplemented by a peace memorandum, jointly promoting market easing. But this time is different; the US strategic reserves are depleted, and without ammunition, it is difficult to command the market. If the situation worsens, oil prices may jump sharply, invalidating the 70-90 range.
Of course, it is impossible to predict whether the situation will escalate or worsen now, but trading should not be done under a dangerous wall. It is better to wait for signs of easing and then short on the right side.
With Kuwait already confirmed to have been attacked by Iranian missiles and drones, and its air defense system reportedly intercepting them, escalation is much easier than cooling down the situation.
Moreover, current news shows that only about 6 bulk commodity ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 11 the previous day and significantly below the average of about 13 over the past 10 days. This has led to a possible decline even in the passage of shadow tankers $CL #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 The Biggest Institutional Crypto Shift May Not Be Happening Through ETFs For years, the institutional crypto story was mainly about ETFs. Now the infrastructure itself is changing. Standard Chartered has launched institutional spot trading for $BTC and $ETH in the UAE, making it the first global systemically important bank to offer this capability in the Gulf market. That distinction matters. An ETF gives institutions exposure. Direct spot trading gives them another route to actually execute andThe recent situation of the CORE ecosystem resembles a wound that cannot heal repeatedly. Judging from multiple code vulnerabilities exposed at the protocol layer, the problem is no longer limited to isolated incidents—flaws in the reward points logic allow some validators to overacquire tokens, triggering over-issuance risks and forcing the project team to initiate emergency hard forks to "patch" them, but unable to reverse historical transactions, the extra tokens remain permanently in circulation. Combined with previous bad debts in the lending market and contract logic failures, this series of events points not to bad luck but to vulnerabilities in the underlying design and economic model itself. The market's response was direct and cold. After the vulnerability broke out, multiple exchanges quickly suspended deposits and withdrawals, and leading platforms carefully evaluated and decided to delist them. This move is an autonomous decision made by exchanges based on liquidity, network stability, and compliance risks, beyond the project's control, yet it effectively compresses token liquidity channels. At the community level, perceptions are more complex: incomplete repairs, delayed summary reports after major events, and insufficient transparency between over-issuance and related nodes, leading many holders to suspect manipulation and high-level sell-offs. Both logical scenarios have their supporters: one is deliberately creating problems and using panic to complete distribution; the other is that the project itself is out of control and heading toward zero. Currently, public information is insufficient to conclude, but frequent low-level mistakes combined with lagging information disclosure have indeed made trust rebuilding extremely difficult. For those still holding or waiting, it is important to remain vigilant and independentTrump and Polymarket have put political coins back on the table
Today, the political crypto sector is very popular. Trump-related news continues to dominate market attention, and the prediction market Polymarket is repeatedly discussed due to fundraising and political cycles. $TRUMP is a coin naturally tied to this sector; it doesn't need a complex whitepaper or users to first understand the technical architecture—the name itself is the entry point for dissemination.
$TRUMP is different from ordinary Memes. Ordinary Memes rely on community-created jokes, while $TRUMP relies on real political events. As long as words like Trump, regulation, elections, prediction markets, and crypto policies keep appearing in the news, it’s easy for short-term funds to take it out for speculation. Although $BTC is fluctuating around 77,000 today without a systemic crash, this leaves room for political Memes to perform.
But it must be made clear here: the rise of political coins is driven by event premiums, not fundamental valuation. Polymarket’s popularity does not mean $TRUMP necessarily has cash flow; Trump’s friendliness to crypto does not mean the TRUMP coin will definitely benefit. The market is making associative chains: Trump family, prediction markets, policy friendliness, outside traffic. The smoother the association, the easier the price is ignited; if the chain breaks, funds will exit quickly.
In the short term, the most important thing for $TRUMP is not how sensational the news headlines are, but whether the trading volume is continuous. The first wave of rally relies on headlines, the second wave continuation depends on buying pressure, and the third wave acceleration depends on FOMO. If the price rises on low volume, it means it’s just riding the hot topic; only a volume breakout with a solid retest shows new funds are truly willing to buy in.
Today’s macro environment is a double-edged sword for it. The US-Iran conflict, oil prices, and US debt suppress risk appetite, theoretically hitting high-volatility Memes; but Trump’s crypto narrative provides political traffic. One suppresses risk, the other provides a story, so this kind of coin is especially prone to large fluctuations. It rises fast and falls fast.
When writing this, $BTC and $TRUMP must be separated. BTC benefits from institutional allocation and hard asset narratives, while TRUMP feeds on political attention. Both may rise, but their capital attributes are completely different. Treating TRUMP like BTC can easily lead to being trapped after news is priced in; treating BTC like TRUMP can wear down patience due to its slower pace.
My trading approach leans toward discipline: as long as political hotspots remain, $TRUMP has reasons to be repeatedly speculated on; but if volume doesn’t follow, all rallies must be guarded against profit-taking. If the market breaks key support, high-volatility political coins are likely more fragile than mainstream coins. You can trade it, but don’t get attached.
The greatest value of $TRUMP today is not to tell you it will definitely rise, but to tell you market risk appetite is not dead yet. As long as political traffic can attract outside attention, this sector will continue to fluctuate. The question is whether volatility can turn into profit; that has never depended on headlines, but on whether you have planned your exit before entering.
This kind of coin easily attracts beginners because the story is straightforward and the name is easy to spread. But the more straightforward it is, the more caution is needed—straightforward means everyone can understand it, and the fastest-reacting money has already entered. If you want to trade $TRUMP seriously, it’s only suitable to focus on events and volume, not to hold blindly. Political traffic can make prices soar, but it won’t protect those chasing highs.
If Trump continues to release crypto-friendly signals or the prediction market heats up, $TRUMP will be repeatedly named by funds. But every naming must be checked if the market cooperates. Volume-less rallies are content for social media; volume breakouts are opportunities for traders. The difference is huge.
To conclude strongly: political coins are not unprofitable, but you can’t sleep on them. When news comes, you must be fast; when news is priced in, you must also be fast. $TRUMP’s advantage is that everyone on the internet understands it, and its disadvantage is also that everyone understands it. When everyone understands, discipline is more important than imagination.#21 Financial Institutions Plan to Launch USD Stablecoin
On September 1, 21 international financial institutions announced plans to establish a new company in the second half of 2026 and launch a USD stablecoin in the first half of 2027. North American participants include 10 banks such as Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, and Wells Fargo; Europe has 8 banks including Deutsche Bank, UBS, Santander, and BBVA; East Asia has Mitsubishi UFJ, the Middle East has Sirius, and Africa has Standard Bank, each with one participant. The alliance expanded from a research project involving 10 banks in October 2025. The product targets cross-border payments and digital asset settlements, with plans to expand to other G7 currencies such as the euro, and aims to comply with the US GENIUS Act and the EU MiCA.
This marks the largest collective entry of traditional finance into the stablecoin sector. The banks' stablecoin benefits from deposit insurance, bank-level compliance, and an existing client network, which are moats that Tether and Circle do not have. However, the core competitiveness of stablecoins lies in network effects and liquidity—the success of the banks' stablecoin depends not on technology but on how many people are willing to use it. Before 2027, this alliance is just a blueprint on paper. [Clear Divergence in Asian Markets, BTC Evening Strategy]
Today's Asian markets are not simply about rises and falls; there is a clear structural divergence. Capital is concentrating on heavyweight and defensive sectors, as everyone awaits the "verdict" from the Federal Reserve's September 17 meeting.
[A-shares] Capital is mainly flowing out from previously popular high-level stocks, semiconductors, communication equipment, and some bank stocks, relatively moving towards low-level themes and safe-haven sectors, including precious metals, shipping, insurance, liquid cooling, and some robotics.
[South Korea] It looks more like capital is exiting rather than normal rotation, mainly reflected by foreign capital withdrawal and pressure on growth stocks.
[Japan] The Nikkei index is mainly dragged down by Fast Retailing and some heavyweight stocks in semiconductors and tech equipment; traditional value sectors such as trading companies, oil and coal, steel, and brokerage firms are performing relatively better.
From the performance of Asian markets, I tend to expect the US stock market to rally first and then drop in the evening. Although BTC has reclaimed above 76,800, from the 4-hour chart perspective, if it continues to rise tonight, one can consider a short on a pullback, with a planned position near 78,200.
Some may ask, why consider shorting now after previously suggesting going long? The contract trading principle remains: follow the big trend, oppose the small. Going long at 76,800 and shorting at 78,200 are not contradictory. In a volatile market, both long and short opportunities exist, but the overall trend is still upward.
If it pulls back to 75,500, I will wait for right-side confirmation before going long; if there is no pullback and it rises directly, then I will look for shorting opportunities as planned.
My overall view has not changed; I remain bullish but expect a pullback.
The above content is only a personal market analysis and trading idea record and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position and risk according to your own situation.Writing 🚨 $ARB 0.128——7天暴涨40%，但真正的考验还没开始。 七天前，$ARB 还在 $0.09 附近，几乎没人关注。 现在呢？ 📈 7天上涨约 40% 🔥 24小时再涨约 14% 💰 市场整体沉寂，反而是 ARB 成了这轮行情最亮眼的主角。 为什么突然爆发？ 核心催化剂就是 Robinhood Chain。 Robinhood 基于 Arbitrum Orbit 构建，而 Orbit 链的净协议收入有 10% 回流 Arbitrum 生态。Robinhood Chain 上线后，已经开始给 Arbitrum DAO 带来真实收入——7月相关许可收入约 $360K。 这改变了市场对 $ARB 的叙事。 过去，很多人把 ARB 看成单纯的治理代币。 现在至少出现了一个新的故事： ARB → Arbitrum 生态收入捕获 + Orbit 商业化增长。 而且基本面并不差。 Arbitrum DAO 2026 年上半年收入约 $6.19M，协议收入毛利率超过 97%。 更疯狂的是，Robinhood Chain 最近的收入增长还在加速。9月1日单日手续费达到约 The global high interest rate storm continues, and volatility in the crypto space is just becoming normalized.
The biggest main theme in the global market recently is very clear: yields on US, European, Japanese, and UK bonds are collectively rising, confirming the long-term persistence of high interest rates. The era of cheap liquidity has completely ended, which is the real reason why the major indices have been unable to break through recently.
In a high interest rate environment, global risk aversion is rising, and risk assets are generally under pressure. Stock markets are volatile, commodities are diverging, and the crypto market is directly locked by liquidity, limiting upward potential and maintaining a "can't rise, can't fall deeply" oscillating pattern throughout.
However, the market has not weakened or crashed; the core support comes from continuous net inflows into spot ETFs. Institutional long-term funds are firmly buying the dip, supporting BTC's bottom range, with every sharp drop met by buying, completely eliminating the risk of a deep fall.
Currently, the market is in a typical macro bearish but capital bullish split scenario. Negative factors suppress upward movement, positive factors struggle to sustain rallies, and back-and-forth spikes and two-way shakeouts have become the norm. Retail investors are easily influenced by short-term fluctuations and tend to trade frequently, resulting in repeated losses.
Going forward, there will be no single large trend, only continuous range-bound grinding.
The strategy is very simple: do not chase highs, do not guess lows, and strictly control position size. Wait for US bond yields to fall and for a macro turning point to appear; only then will a true trend market restart.
$BTC $ETH #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #Robinhood Chain volume surge, ARB revenue narrative heats up
I'm Cige, Robinhood Chain is leading ARB into an independent rally. The 24-hour DEX trading volume reached $1.89 billion, with chain revenue around $3.38 million, significantly higher than many mainstream chains. ARB has risen 46.7% over two weeks.
The core of this rally is the revenue-sharing model. Robinhood Chain must return 10% of protocol net income to the Arbitrum ecosystem, with 8% flowing into the Arbitrum DAO treasury. Cumulative fee revenue has risen to $13.05 million, with an annualized income of about $110 million. Revenue sharing gives ARB a cash flow support that did not exist before.
Technically, ARB broke above the ascending trendline and is approaching the $0.12 resistance level. If it can hold above, it is expected to break through to $0.14 to $0.15. RSI has risen near 70, indicating short-term overbought conditions and increased risk of chasing highs.
The main risk is the token unlock on September 23, releasing about 139.2 million ARB, approximately 1.4% of total supply. Coupled with a 62% increase in open interest and positive funding rates, if the breakout fails to hold, the unlock could trigger selling pressure.
The ARB direction is correct, but $0.12 is a hurdle, and the September 23 unlock is a minefield. Those who can hold may see $0.14 to $0.15; those who can't should wait for a pullback to $0.1007 before entering. The direction hasn't changed, but the rhythm is shifting. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC 下一轮行情来了？ $BTC 的 50 日均线正在逼近 200 日均线，市场开始重新讨论“黄金交叉”。 技术面之外，资金面也出现了一些积极变化。 USDT 市占率走弱，意味着部分资金可能正在从稳定币重新回流风险资产。 但需要注意： 黄金交叉是滞后指标，USDT 市占率下降也不等于资金一定持续流入 BTC。 真正决定趋势能不能走远的，还是现货需求、ETF 资金、美元流动性以及全球资金成本。 🌏 宏观方面，市场开始重新交易“流动性扩张”的预期。 Arthur Hayes 提到，日本 GPIF 的资产配置变化可能带来新的流动性影响。 但所谓“印钞狂欢”目前更多还是一种市场预期，并不能直接当成已经发生的事实。 真正需要盯住的依然是： 利率 → 美元 → 流动性 → 全球风险偏好 → BTC 🏦 更值得关注的是机构基础设施正在继续完善。 今天，渣打银行宣布在阿联酋推出面向机构客户的 $BTC、$ETH 现货交易服务，成为首家在海湾地区提供这一服务的全球系统重要性银行。 这意味着传统金融机构正在进一步把加密资产纳入现有的交易体系。 这对长期采用而言，比单纯的一条利好新闻更值得关注。 ?Writing 🚨 最大的机构级加密转变，可能根本不发生在 ETF 上 过去几年，机构进入加密市场的核心叙事，几乎都围绕 ETF 展开。 但现在，真正发生变化的，可能是底层基础设施本身。 Standard Chartered（渣打银行）已经在阿联酋推出面向机构客户的 $BTC 和 $ETH 现货交易服务，成为首家在海湾地区提供这一能力的全球系统重要性银行。 这个区别非常重要。 ETF 给机构的是“资产敞口”。 而直接现货交易，则意味着机构拥有了另一条路径，可以通过成熟的银行体系直接执行、管理数字资产。 这代表的可能已经不是简单的“买入加密资产”。 而是： 传统金融基础设施正在开始真正接入加密市场。 🟠 $BTC：机构进入加密市场的第一站 $BTC 依然是最明确的机构级入口。 而 $ETH 则提供了对更广泛区块链经济的敞口。 但真正值得关注的是： 机构资金未来会不会从 BTC、ETH 继续向其他大型资产扩散？ 我的观察名单： 👀 $SOL / $XRP 如果这两类资产能够持续出现机构级资金需求，可能意味着机构配置正在从 BTC、ETH 向更广泛的大市值资产扩张。 🔵 生态资产：$Tomorrow night (September 4) at 20:30 Beijing time, the August non-farm payrolls will be announced. The background this time is a bit special: July's non-farm payrolls were negative 23,000, far below expectations; June was only 57,000, and the previous months were significantly revised downward, showing a clear cooling in employment. So now the market's bet on a September rate hike has been pushed very low, with interest rate futures pricing in only about 10 basis points of a hike. The key question this report needs to answer is: has employment really collapsed, and will the Federal Reserve still dare to raise rates?
Regarding the market reaction, there are roughly three scenarios. If the data rebounds significantly, for example returning above 100,000, rate hike expectations will rise again, the US dollar will strengthen, the crypto market will come under pressure, and $DOGE might retest support around 0.0800. If the data is slightly weak or mediocre, rate hike expectations will continue to cool, liquidity expectations will be relatively loose, which is actually positive for DOGE—looking at your chart, the price just bounced from 0.08001 and moved above the three short-term moving averages. Under this sentiment, there is a chance to test the 24-hour high of 0.0837, and further up to 0.0850. If the data shows negative growth again, there might be a short-term sell-off driven by panic (recession fears), but then rate cut expectations will provide support, making volatile spikes likely.
One last reminder: the most intense volatility occurs in the first minute or two after the data release, so if you trade contracts, reduce your leverage. Also, non-farm payrolls are just an appetizer; the real directional choice will come with the Federal Reserve meeting in mid-September.⚠️Is the US-Iran situation just a fuse? The real danger might be the "chain explosion points" in the global energy supply chain
In this round of US-Iran conflict, what worries me more is not whether the Strait of Hormuz will be completely blocked, but that multiple risk points are emerging simultaneously on the energy supply side.
After the US military struck Iran again, international oil prices quickly rose; meanwhile, Saudi crude oil exports remain low, Red Sea shipping security is under renewed pressure, and Russian diesel export restrictions continue.
Several seemingly independent events, once acting together on the energy market, could amplify the impact. If oil prices continue to rise, inflation expectations may heat up again, market bets on rate cuts will cool down accordingly, and the pressure from rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar may again transmit to risk assets. The recent drop of BTC below $77,000 already reflects some market concerns.
So in the short term, I remain cautious on $BTC and $ETH. For BTC, key observation is the $75,000–$73,000 range, while for ETH, support near $2,450 is important.
But geopolitical risks ≠ guaranteed crypto market decline; what really needs monitoring are oil prices, the dollar, US Treasury yields, and changes in Federal Reserve expectations.
My strategy is simple: do not chase the rally, watch for resistance on rebounds, and keep positions light until macro risks clearly ease.
This is just my personal opinion shared, not investment advice.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $DOGE is currently around 0.083, stuck in the 0.080–0.082 support cluster, with strong resistance from the 200-day EMA at 0.094–0.095. The triangle convergence is indecisive at the end.
Three reasons:
• Macro tied to $BTC: 66% probability of a rate hike in September, overall risk assets shrink before Nonfarm/CPI/FOMC, DOGE has a high correlation with BTC and lacks independent catalysts.
• Narrative vacuum: X Pay's April public beta only supports fiat, DOGE was not included in the first phase; Elon Musk's tweets have zero marginal utility; total AUM of spot ETFs is less than 10M, with no sustained inflows. It’s driven by sentiment derivatives, and flat sentiment means sideways movement.
• Chip structure: OI dropped to 1.27 billion, funding rate near neutral, but Binance's long-short ratio is 2.21 indicating crowded longs → no follow-up orders above, liquidation pools below, neither side dares to move first.
Operational anchors (personal record, not advice): Daily close below 0.080 → target 0.068; 4h hold at 0.087 → test 0.094. The middle is all fake moves.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
Do you think $DOGE will first dip to 0.068 to shake out longs, or will it wait for BTC to break 80k and fly up directly?The $HYPE feature, simply put, allows the deployer to decide who can enter the market to trade.
HIP-3* is now on the testnet, with the core being an on-chain whitelist mechanism.
What does this mean? The deployer can set up a permissioned market where only addresses on the whitelist can trade.
Whether to enable this feature and who to grant access to is entirely up to the deployer; Hyperliquid only provides the infrastructure layer.
The practical value for deployers is that they can screen participants according to compliance requirements, avoiding regulatory red lines.
For Hyperliquid, this extends its positioning as neutral infrastructure, preserving decentralization while allowing room for compliant operations.
Once this feature officially launches, it may attract more institutional deployers. The whitelist mechanism means compliant funds can be integrated without worrying about regulatory risks from anonymous addresses.
At the same time, this serves as a warning to other L1/L2s: Hyperliquid is starting to enter the "compliant DeFi" niche. If this model succeeds, protocols aiming to operate within compliance frameworks may prioritize Hyperliquid as their base layer.#FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm #FinancialReportObserver: Broadcom's performance exceeds expectations, Snowflake raises guidance
$CORE Brothers, hit follow, don't get lost!
CORE is not the kind of conspiracy where "someone manipulates the market to zero overnight," but a meat grinder twisted by "chip concentration + leveraged lending + forced liquidity unbinding + whales smashing accordingly"; the conspiracy may or may not exist, but the meat grinder is real, and retail investors who enter without distinguishing whether it's the market or a script will all come out in the red.
The meat grinder is real. But sometimes next to the meat grinder there is also a recycler—you throw in rotten leaves, it won't spit out gold, but if one day the BTCFi line is truly taken over by institutions, small-cap carcasses like CORE, which "has dropped 99%, has concentrated chips but the base hasn't collapsed, and has buyback and burn as a bottom line," might actually be more resilient than a bunch of altcoins that never dropped.
$CORE After the US stock market closed yesterday, BTC and ETH ETF funds moved in opposite directions. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $101 million, while the ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $48.2 million.
What’s more interesting is that the coin prices didn’t immediately diverge today. Before 8 PM, BTC was around $77,900, up 0.82%, and ETH was about $2,407, up 0.67%. Short-term prices still followed the same risk sentiment, but ETF funds were already picking assets.
I will wait to see this divergence again during the US session. If BTC continues to hold $77,000 and spot trading volume expands, yesterday’s inflow will carry more weight; if ETH’s price rises but ETF outflows continue, I will treat it as a divergence where price outperforms the capital flow, and I won’t increase my position just because of one bullish candle.
Data: Farside Investors, OKX. Personal record, not investment advice.
$BTC $TSLA pure vision solution running in European rain and snow conditions, how is this different from a blind person driving?
Tesla FSD has started road testing in France, two cars, with Dutch data as the base, and the French Ministry of Transport is watching.
But with European weather, it often rains, fogs, or snows; road reflections, blurred lane markings, and cameras covered with mud and water—how much can a pure vision solution handle these problems?
No LiDAR, no high-precision maps as backup, relying entirely on algorithms to guess.
Can Dutch data be used in France? Has the algorithm seen French rural narrow roads and roundabouts?
The French minister said voting will be in October or December, but the test only lasts one month, just going through the motions.
If the EU really wants to give FSD the green light, the premise is Tesla must prove that pure vision won't drive the car into ditches in harsh weather.
My judgment: the technical route and regulatory logic fundamentally don't match, approval will most likely be delayed.#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
Oil prices have gone completely crazy.
But even more intense than the rise in oil prices is the multi-point collapse of the entire energy supply chain.
First, Saudi exports have collapsed. Observable exports in August dropped to 3 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2017, a nine-year low. The reason is not the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, but the Red Sea being attacked by Houthi forces. Saudi Arabia tried to avoid Hormuz by routing through the Red Sea, but the Red Sea was also hit. The world's largest oil producer has both eastern and western routes blocked.
Second, the US military is personally escorting through Hormuz. CNN cited US officials saying that on September 1, the US military escorted 40 commercial ships through the strait, setting a wartime record for throughput. The strait is not closed, but passage depends on US military escort. How long can this situation last?
Third, Russian diesel exports have also been cut off. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen directly admitted on Fox that Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy facilities are driving up global energy prices. Moscow has extended the diesel export ban until the end of September. Diesel is the fundamental fuel for transportation, agriculture, and logistics; any increase pushes costs up across society.
Hormuz is not completely closed, but from the Middle East to the Red Sea to Russia-Ukraine, the entire energy supply chain is exploding. Four routes are tightening simultaneously. Oil prices continue to rise, making inflation expectations uncontrollable. If inflation expectations can't be controlled, the Federal Reserve cannot pivot to easing. Yellen herself admits we are "experiencing an energy shock."
For the crypto world, the logic is simple—oil prices won't fall, interest rate cuts won't come; without rate cuts, Bitcoin at 80,000 is hard to sustain.
What do you think? 🚨 $BTC is becoming increasingly uncorrelated with traditional risk assets.
Over the past six months, Bitcoin has shown lower correlation with U.S. equities than gold, small caps, emerging markets, and even Treasuries, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas.
That’s a notable regime shift: $BTC is increasingly trading on its own liquidity, scarcity and crypto-native demand drivers rather than simply behaving like a high-beta tech asset.
$BTC $ETH Brothers, today there's something way more important than the usual crypto market fluctuations — Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports have dropped to a 9-year low, and oil prices are skyrocketing like they've been injected with adrenaline. This is no joke; when energy prices rise, global inflation expectations immediately spike. For the crypto world, this is like planting a landmine before the CPI data even drops. Why say that? Because oil prices are the root of CPI. Saudi exports collapse, supply tightens, oil prices rise, and gasoline, transportation, and chemicals all follow suit. Can inflation data look good then? If upcoming CPI rebounds beyond expectations due to energy prices, the Fed folks won't dare to ease rates, liquidity stories will fall apart, and risk assets including $BTC will get hammered. So even though the crypto market hasn't crashed today, funds are clearly more cautious, all guarding against the wolf of inflation really coming back. Back to CPI itself, the market originally expected inflation to gradually decline, but if oil prices stay high, core inflation stickiness will be stronger. For crypto, as long as CPI doesn't rebound beyond expectations, it's a mild positive; but if oil prices push it up, rate cut expectations will be cut in half, and $BTC won't even break out — just holding key support would be good. $ETH is even weaker, gas fees are dirt cheap, exchange rates can't rise, totally dependent on Bitcoin's mood. Next, as usual, I'll go through the top thirty coins one by one with casual commentary, no investment advice, just personal observation. $BTC: short-term suppressed by oil prices and CPI expectations, continuing to oscillate, don't rush to buy.The rebound is weak; will Bitcoin continue to fall? Was last week's surge a dead cat bounce or the start of a bull market? Let's take a quick look.
1. First, let's see if the bull market is really here. Look at the chart. The chart shows Bitcoin's weekly candlestick chart, covering multiple bear-to-bull transitions, with one common feature: every bear-to-bull transition is marked by an epic large bullish candlestick! What happens after that?
2. As shown in the chart, after $BTC experiences a short-term 20% surge with a large bullish candlestick, it enters several weeks of consolidation. Note, this is a weekly chart, so each small candlestick represents one week. In previous instances, the consolidation lasted 4-7 candlesticks, meaning 4-7 weeks of sideways movement. The token undergoes sufficient rotation before the market rises again!
3. Currently, BTC buying pressure remains strong, with large holders slowly accumulating. Despite the major negative impact of the escalating US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin has only slightly pulled back after such a big rise, which itself is a strong signal. So be patient and leave the rest to time.
4. Another trading opportunity is crude oil $CL. Shu Qin has started to build short positions in batches at 86.5, 91, and 96, each with 10% of the position, holding for twice the long term. I think when oil prices approach around 100, Trump will either back down or a ceasefire will occur, causing oil prices to plummet and yielding big profits! Everyone should be careful here: do not be greedy for multiples; reduce risk because haste makes waste. Make money slowly; there will be plenty of opportunities.Robinhood's chain exploded in popularity and directly boosted
$ARB
, while also driving on-chain Gas fees to remain high 😂
The higher the on-chain activity, the more expensive the Gas costs become, causing many who just rushed into meme tokens to face high fees that are like a guillotine for themselves; small retail investors really find it hard to play.
However, the logic behind this ARB price surge is still worth unpacking.
Robinhood's chain is built using Arbitrum technology, recently surpassing $3.75 million in daily fee revenue, contributing 35% of Arbitrum DAO's income in July; over the past month, the on-chain TVL has also climbed to about $740 million.
The key point is that Arbitrum DAO can claim 10% of the chain's revenue, with 8% flowing directly into the DAO treasury.
This is the core reason for ARB's recent surge of over 15%: as long as Robinhood continues to bring real users to Arbitrum and generate continuous fees, ARB's fundamentals are genuinely improving.
But a word of caution: there has already been a wave of short-term gains, and chasing the high can easily lead to a shakeout. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Polymarket is now valued at $21 billion, so what exactly does Wall Street see in it?
#Polymarket拟融资10亿美元，估值210亿美元
Usually, people just place bets on the platform, but I didn’t expect the valuation to have reached this level 😅
According to Bloomberg, Polymarket plans to raise $1 billion, with a post-money valuation of $21 billion, led by 1789 Capital, which plans to invest about $300 million. The current reports say it’s a planned fundraising, so it can’t be assumed that the full $1 billion has been received yet.
If you only look at the betting business, it does seem expensive. However, the NYSE parent company ICE previously announced that besides investing, it will also become the global distributor of Polymarket event data, providing this data to institutional clients.
Ah, this detail is worth pondering. People placing money on whether an event will happen and the changes in trading prices can also provide institutions with a reference for market expectations. If fund managers frequently check this data before important events, Polymarket has the opportunity to turn data services into another business. I’m optimistic about this direction, but placing real money bets doesn’t necessarily mean everyone guesses correctly.The current crude oil market is in a phase influenced by both "geopolitical risk premium" and "actual supply and demand." Different institutions have provided completely different perspectives:
· Bearish perspective: Some analyses suggest shorting in batches at 97 and 100 dollars, taking profit every 4 points per short position
1. Trump statement: said the new round of military action will not "last too long," which the market interprets as the conflict may not be prolonged
2. Weakening demand: The peak summer travel season in the Northern Hemisphere ended in September, and demand has entered a seasonal downward channel
3. High volatility risk: Once the conflict eases or profit-taking surges, the risk of retracement simultaneously increases
4. Institutions forecast cautiously: Some analyses expect Brent to fluctuate widely between 80-95 dollars per barrel in September$xDELL, a company you thought only sold computers, surged 15.76% overnight.
Market cap soared to $318.9 billion, with a full-day trading volume of $16.988 billion. Dell's earnings report ignited the entire AI sector's sentiment.
How explosive are the numbers: Q2 of fiscal 2027 revenue reached $46.97 billion, up 58% year-over-year, while market expectations were only $44.9 billion. Net profit was $4.13 billion, more than 2.5 times higher year-over-year. The key is AI-optimized servers, with quarterly revenue of $16.4 billion, doubling from before; new orders signed this quarter reached $60.9 billion, and backlog orders piled up to $95 billion.
What does a $95 billion backlog mean? These orders will convert into revenue, locking Dell's performance for several upcoming quarters. That's why it boldly raised its full-year revenue guidance from $167 billion directly to $192 billion, and AI server full-year expectations from $60 billion to $74 billion. At the earnings call, the COO said something very encouraging: over 6,500 customers have purchased Dell AI Factory solutions, with 3,300 of them added in the last three quarters.
The AI narrative is not just hype; it's an industry cycle genuinely generating orders and profits. The US stock AI supply chain is delivering results, and sentiment will inevitably spread to crypto AI sector tokens. On the night Dell surged, Nvidia also rose 3.21%, with $34.4 billion in trading volume, ranking first in the entire market—this is the resonance of the industry chain. Keep an eye on this line; AI coin markets often follow the earnings rhythm of US AI giants. $TRX Sun Yuchen's BTC, ETH, USDT are mostly assets of Huobi users, many of which have been repeatedly leveraged through on-chain cyclic loans. The truly available portion may be far less than the book value.
The book valuation of TRX is about 19.4 billion, but even a slight sell-off could trigger a panic stampede because there simply isn't enough liquidity.
He cannot recklessly squander the assets of Huobi users.
If a run occurs on Huobi, he must sell assets to cope with withdrawals.$ARB 0.128.
Seven days ago it was 0.09. No one was looking.
Now up 40% in a week, another 14% in 24h. Market's dead, but ARB is carrying the whole damn show.
Why? Robinhood paid its first "rent." Orbit chain fees — 10% flow back to the DAO. First month: $360K. Not huge, but it flipped the narrative. ARB is no longer just governance air — it's a yield-generating asset.
Fundamentals solid too: $6.19M in H1 revenue, 97% gross #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue $BTC is back above $77K, but the market structure underneath the move deserves more attention than the headline price.
Headline prices can be deceiving when macro shifts under the hood:
August vs September: August saw $3.52B in spot $BTC BETF net inflows and a ~25% rally, but September started with negative ETF flows and macro headwinds (rising oil prices, elevated yields, Fed rate hike expectations).
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Apple's new CEO John Ternus' compensation revealed: an annual salary of $3 million, with an annual equity award target of $55 million starting from fiscal year 2027, totaling about $58 million. Of the equity, 75% depends on Apple's shareholder returns relative to the S&P 500, and 25% vests in four installments over four years. Having served less than a full fiscal year this year, he also has $2.5 million in proportionally allocated target stock.
Cook transitions to Executive Chairman with a $2 million annual salary and a $45 million equity target, totaling about $47 million. He also has a full package of $74.3 million in 2025.
In short: cash is just the entry ticket; the real check is written in the stock price. The new leader's salary is lower than the predecessor's, but the terms are more like "you only win if you outperform the market." $AAPL U.S. stock market volatility is dead silent, gold to U.S. bonds hits historic extremes: What exactly is big money betting on?
The current macro landscape presents a strange combination: U.S. stock volatility is pinned to the floor enjoying a slow bull market; meanwhile, the price ratio of gold relative to U.S. bonds has quietly pushed to multi-decade extremes.
With U.S. bonds openly offering over 4% risk-free interest, why are global sovereign funds and central banks willing to snap up zero-yield gold while selling off U.S. bonds?
Because in the eyes of old money, U.S. bonds have long ceased to be risk-free assets and instead represent a false sense of security without real assets.
Interest payments on national debt have exceeded the defense budget, and the only solution is to dilute the debt through long-term inflation. Big money buying gold is not hedging against short-term rate cuts but against the irreversible devaluation of fiat currency credit.
The low volatility in U.S. stocks is merely an illusion created by options market makers forcibly suppressing risk. The tighter the spring is compressed, the more extreme the impact when mean reversion occurs.
Connecting these two phenomena, what crypto holders really need to be cautious about is not the absence of market movement but the fatal mismatch in liquidity timing.
Once the suppressed volatility in U.S. stocks suddenly violently releases, the highly leveraged crypto market is often forced to act as a global liquidity ATM first, triggering a fierce spike and shakeout. But once the first wave of liquidations clears the market, the narrative of fiat currency credit devaluation already ignited by gold will ultimately cause all overflow capital to rotate exponentially into Bitcoin.
Understanding this transmission chain, are you now guarding against short-term liquidity black swans, or accumulating spot positions on dips waiting for the big wind to blow?Saudi crude oil exports have fallen to a 9-year low, causing oil prices to soar
What really makes me cautious in this round between the US and Iran is not the Strait of Hormuz, but the multiple disruptions emerging in the energy supply chain.
After the US military airstrike on Iran again on September 1, Brent crude oil BZ quickly rebounded, Saudi exports dropped to multi-year lows, the Red Sea was attacked by the Houthis, and the Russian diesel export ban was extended. In other words, it is no longer a single event; the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine are simultaneously pressuring the energy side. If oil prices continue to surge, the most direct impact will be inflation expectations rising again → rate cut expectations cooling down → risk assets under pressure. This trading logic has already appeared in the market, and BTC briefly fell below $77,000 after the news broke.
In the short term, don't rush to be bullish on BTC and $ETH.
BTC faces strong resistance at 80,000 above; the trend is more likely to be weakly oscillating, focusing on 75,000 or even 73,000. ETH is relatively weaker; if it cannot hold around 2,450, I believe there is a possibility of further downward support seeking.
Of course, escalation of war does not necessarily mean BTC will crash. What really determines the market is oil prices, the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.
So I remain cautious now, not chasing longs, watching resistance on rebounds, preferring to earn less rather than holding firm during such amplified macro risks.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 HYPE has been included in a US crypto index ETF.
And it's not just a token inclusion.
Hashdex's NCIQ has assigned HYPE about a 3.36% weighting, ranking it as the fifth largest holding, just behind BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL.
This is actually quite interesting.
Previously, when institutions talked about crypto assets, it was basically just BTC and ETH.
Now even HYPE, which operates on-chain perpetuals and derivatives, is entering traditional index products.
To put it plainly, institutions are slowly accepting a fact:
The truly valuable things in the crypto market aren't necessarily all "currencies"; they can also be infrastructure generating real transactions and revenue.
But don't get excited just because it says "included in an ETF."
Index inclusion is a plus, not a price guarantee.
The real strength depends on whether HYPE can continue to generate trading volume, revenue, and capital demand in the future.
Institutions can help open the door for you.
Whether it can stand firm still depends on fundamentals.
$HYPE $BTC $ETH What truly alerted me in this round of US-Iran conflict is not the blockade risk of the Strait of Hormuz, but the multi-point resonant disturbances emerging in the global energy supply chain.
After the US military airstrike on Iran again on September 1, Brent crude oil surged rapidly. Meanwhile, Saudi crude oil exports have fallen to multi-year lows, Houthi forces attacked ships again in the Red Sea direction, and Russia extended its diesel export ban. It is evident that these are not isolated events, but simultaneous overlapping pressures on the energy front from both the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine fronts. If oil prices continue to climb, the most direct transmission path will be inflation expectations rising again → interest rate cut expectations weakened → risk asset valuations under pressure. The market has begun to play out this logic, with Bitcoin once falling below 77,000 USD after the news was released.
In the short term, BTC and ETH should not be too optimistic prematurely.
BTC faces strong resistance around 80,000 USD above; the market is more inclined to fluctuate with a weak bias going forward, with key support tests at 75,000 or even 73,000 USD. ETH is relatively weaker; if the defense line near 2,450 USD is breached, I believe there is room to continue seeking a bottom downward.
Of course, escalation of geopolitical conflicts does not necessarily mean BTC will crash; the ultimate decisive factors still lie in oil price trends, the US dollar index, US Treasury yield curve, and marginal changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Therefore, I currently maintain a cautious stance—no chasing of longs, viewing rebounds as pressure tests, preferring to stay out rather than stubbornly holding positions during phases of amplified macro risk.
The above is only a personal trading thought record and does not constitute any investment advice.
$BTC
$ETH
$BZ
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 This Friday's non-farm payrolls is a crucial data point that will determine the market's next move!!
On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, the market is holding its breath, with the rate hike sword hanging above 77,000.
$BTC is still hovering around 77,900, not much different from the past two days, bouncing back from 76,200 to 78,000, then grinding around 78,000 for a whole day.
Tonight, the August non-farm payroll data will be released. This is the last employment report before the September 16 FOMC meeting and currently the only variable that can move the market. ADP employment only increased by 38,000, the Beige Book says employment growth slowed in 10 districts, the data is indeed cooling down. But CME data shows about a 62% chance of a rate hike in September; inflation stickiness is more troubling for the Fed than the cooling employment.
Bank of America directly said that non-farm payrolls are just an appetizer, CPI is the main course. A weak non-farm payrolls report may reduce the probability of a rate hike, but what really decides whether there will be a hike in September is next week's CPI.
Prices are stuck between 77,000 and 78,000, unable to go up or down. If non-farm payrolls exceed expectations, it may continue to look for support downward; if below expectations, there is a chance to retest 79,000-80,000. Regarding burning, don't just look at the quantity; you have to look at the speed. Some projects burn a fixed amount every month, like submitting homework, but the price still falls as it should. Truly effective burning must follow network activity—when on-chain transfers increase, Gas fees consumption rises, and burning naturally accelerates, forming a closed loop.
I usually monitor two numbers: the daily average burn amount and the number of daily active addresses. If the burn growth rate outpaces the address growth rate, it means the burn contribution per user is increasing, improving deflation efficiency, which is strong support for tokens like $ETH that have a burning mechanism. Conversely, if the burn amount surges but the address count remains unchanged, it is likely that whales are concentrating transfers, which is unsustainable.
Another detail is to look at the burn ratio. Only when it exceeds 80% of the inflation rate can it be considered true tightening; below this, issuance still outweighs burning, making it hard for the price to have a long-term bull run. I recommend plotting a 7-day moving average weekly and comparing it with total network fee revenue. If both rise synchronously, it indicates a healthy ecosystem reinforcing itself, making holding spot assets reassuring. If they diverge, for example, fees rise but burning falls, it means the Base Fee is being lowered, the protocol is conceding benefits, which in the long term weakens scarcity.
Don't be fooled by single-day massive burns; continuity is more important than explosive power. #21 Financial Institutions Plan to Launch USD Stablecoins
21 financial institutions plan to launch USD stablecoins. Is the stablecoin leader USDT about to change hands?
Personally, I think it is difficult to achieve in the short term at present.
Let's first look at the two major stablecoin leaders, USDT and USDC.
Starting with USDT issued by Tether, it holds over 59% market share and accounts for 92% of cross-border payments and B2B settlements in emerging markets, with an extremely solid ecosystem, including $BTC in the industry.
As for USDC issued by Circle, although its supply is less than half of USDT, its transfer volume is huge, and it holds a solid position in DeFi (decentralized finance) and institutional settlements.
The new stablecoins issued by financial institutions are more about attracting some traditional funds such as pension funds and other large investors who are hesitant to enter the market.
It can be anticipated that perhaps new stablecoins combined with on-chain wealth management (DeFi), or through tokenized deposits as a workaround, could offer a decent interest rate, thereby attracting users (in the short term), which might be a "free money" moment for ordinary users.
If the new bank-issued coins want to break this pattern, July 2028 might be a key point — by then, the GENIUS Act will be fully implemented, and non-compliant old players may be restricted. This is the opportunity window for banks 🤔
@OKX星球 @妍妍Eleven_OKX ETF fund flows showed a clear divergence yesterday.
ETH's 12-day streak of inflows was broken, with a net outflow of about 48.08 million, having accumulated 1.62 billion during that period. XRP's 11-day consecutive inflows also ended, with a net outflow of about 7.2 million. BTC, however, saw a net inflow of 101.2 million, exactly the opposite of the previous day's net outflow of 236.5 million. It looks like funds are flowing back from altcoin ETFs to BTC, but one day's data is not enough to confirm rotation.
What’s more worth pondering is that within the same asset category, funds are not moving unidirectionally. BlackRock's ETHA had a net outflow of 53.4 million, while its staked ETH ETF ETHB had a net inflow of 53 million. The "ETH fund outflow" in the headline actually involves switching between products. Some withdrew from the regular ETH ETF but moved into the staked ETH ETF.
What to watch next is not the red or green of a single day, but whether the combination of BTC inflows and ETH and XRP outflows continues on the second and third trading days. If it quickly reverses, it’s just portfolio rebalancing. If it persists, it more likely reflects institutional preference contraction.
Friends, do you think this is just a single-day rebalancing, or that institutional funds are starting to favor BTC again? Let’s discuss in the comments. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC $ETH $CP #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday
On the eve of Nonfarm Payrolls, the market is holding its breath, with the rate hike sword hanging above 77,000
$BTC is still hovering around 77,900, not much change from the past two days, bouncing back from 76,200 to 78,000, then grinding around 78,000 for a day.
Tonight the August Nonfarm Payroll data will be released. This is the last employment report before the September 16 FOMC meeting and currently the only variable that can move the market. ADP employment only increased by 38,000, the Beige Book says employment growth slowed in 10 districts, data is indeed cooling down. But CME data shows about a 62% chance of a rate hike in September, inflation stickiness is more troubling for the Fed than cooling employment.
Bank of America directly said Nonfarm is just an appetizer, CPI is the main course. A weak Nonfarm might reduce the chance of a rate hike, but what really decides whether there will be a hike in September is next week's CPI.
Price is stuck between 77,000-78,000, unable to go up or down. If Nonfarm exceeds expectations, it may continue to look for support downward; if below expectations, there is a chance to retest 79,000-80,000.
The direction depends on tonight.