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$ETH Momentum Indicator Divergence Signal and Bull-Bear Energy Consumption
Key Conclusion: Both KDJ and RSI indicators have weakened, issuing a strong bearish signal. KDJ (K:31.43, D:44.37) forms a high-level death cross, with the K line sharply falling away from the D line; RSI6 (25.41) breaks below 30 approaching extreme oversold territory, RSI12 (38.79) falls below 40. Under the baseline scenario, momentum indicators suggest there is still downward room for price, but RSI6 nearing extreme oversold calls for caution against an oversold rebound.
In-depth Analysis of Momentum Indicators:
A deep dive into the momentum indicators below the chart. KDJ stochastic indicator: current K value is 31.43, D value is 44.37. From the chart trend, the K line has clearly crossed downward through the D line, forming a "high-level death cross" pattern. Moreover, the K line (31.43) has dropped well below 50 into a weak zone, rapidly approaching the 20-30 oversold area. On the 1-hour timeframe, this rapid decline usually indicates a concentrated release of short-term bearish pressure. This explains why the price suffered such a severe sell-off after hitting 2,776.
Next, looking at the RSI relative strength index: RSI6 reports 25.41, RSI12 reports 38.79, RSI24 reports 46.33. This is a very standard "bearish alignment" structure. RSI6 breaks below 30, approaching the traditional extreme oversold zone at 20, indicating extremely concentrated selling pressure over the past 6 hours. The negative divergence between RSI6 and RSI24 widens, showing concentrated short-term selling pressure release. From a divergence perspective, if the price continues to make new lows (e.g., breaking below 2,670) but RSI6 refuses to make new lows and starts to turn upward, a classic "bullish divergence" pattern will form, signaling a strong reversal buy opportunity.
Current momentum indicators suggest: the market is in the late stage of "concentrated bearish momentum release." With the resonance of the KDJ death cross and RSI6 nearing extreme oversold, chasing shorts now has a very poor risk-reward ratio (prone to short squeezes), while the value of long-side speculation is becoming apparent. Rational traders should not continue panic selling when KDJ is below 35 and RSI6 is below 30. Instead, more attention should be paid to K line patterns; if "long lower shadows," "engulfing patterns," or other bottoming signals appear, light long positions can be tried to speculate on an oversold rebound. But remember, in a bearish trend, oversold conditions can become even more oversold, so strict stop-losses must be set.
---$ETH was previously ambushed, with a stop loss at 2770 almost triggered. It's the classic buy on expectations, sell on facts. Outside, there was all good news, and when it suddenly surged to 2760, my emotions wavered. There was a voice in my head telling me to reverse and go long following the data, but luckily I held back and didn't break my initial position idea. The current profit feels more like a reward for discipline; better to die at the stop loss than to be greedy.📊 技术面：2616 是短线多头最后防线 目前 $ETH 在 2630–2720 区间震荡。 2616 正好位于关键支撑区域附近，下面还有： ➤ SMA20：约 2620 ➤ EMA30：约 2567 也就是说，2616 附近同时存在前低与均线支撑。 如果有效跌破，回调空间可能进一步扩大； 如果能够守住，则可以作为一个相对明确的短线观察区。 📰 消息面：非农数据带来的“黄金坑”？ 最新非农就业数据明显低于预期，仅新增 2.9万人，同时前值被下修，失业率升至 4.2%。 数据公布后，$ETH 短线快速下跌约 3.7%，市场情绪出现集中释放。 但从宏观角度看，就业降温也可能降低进一步收紧政策的预期，对风险资产形成一定支撑。 与此同时，花旗将 ETH 未来12个月目标价从 2240美元上调至3028美元。 📌 交易计划 如果 $ETH 回到 2616–2620 区间，可以重点观察多头反应。 🎯 第一目标：2680–2700 🚀 若突破 2720，进一步关注 2780 🛡️ 风控：跌破 2570 后止损 ⚖️ 仓位：10%–15% ⛓️ 杠杆：不超过3倍 注意：2616 不是当前价Recently, the news about Binance investing in Circle has been brewing.
Many people focus on the $100 million.
But I am more concerned about another issue.
Why are more and more platforms starting to invest in stablecoin infrastructure instead of creating their own stablecoins?
I think the answer might be:
In the future, what truly holds value is not just issuing a Stablecoin.
It's about who owns more payment scenarios, greater liquidity, and more real users.
So now when I look at a project, I pay less attention solely to the price.
I focus more on:
• Whether on-chain transactions are continuously growing;
• Whether funds are continuously flowing in;
• Whether liquidity is improving;
• Whether users are genuinely using it.
Recently, I always check these data first on Ave.ai.
Many times, the price reflects market sentiment.
The real trends often appear first in on-chain data.
What do you think will be the biggest moat for Stablecoins in the future: issuance capability or ecosystem and distribution capability? $BTC Cross-Market Macro Mapping and Comprehensive Scenario Simulation
Key Conclusion: BTC surged to 87,000 before crashing sharply, perfectly confirming the logic of "macro high interest rates suppressing risk assets." The high 10-year US Treasury yield and pre-market risk-off sentiment in US stocks were the last straw that broke the bulls' backs. Under the baseline scenario, the market will fluctuate widely between 84,500 and 86,000 to digest the macro bearish factors.
Macro Correlation and Scenario Simulation:
From a global macro perspective, the current 1-hour level sharp drop in BTC is essentially a brutal liquidation of the "local bubble in the crypto market" caused by "macro liquidity tightening." The 10-year US Treasury yield hovering around 5.11% makes the opportunity cost of the non-yielding asset BTC extreme. When US stock index futures weaken pre-market, the crypto market, as the most liquidity-sensitive "canary," reacts first with a sharp drop.
Comprehensive Scenario Simulation:
1. Optimistic Scenario (30% probability): Oversold V-shaped reversal. If the Nasdaq strongly rebounds after the US market opens and Treasury yields fall, risk appetite will recover. BTC will form a double bottom near 85,239 and, relying on the KDJ's extremely oversold golden cross, launch a violent rebound to retest 86,155 (VWAP) and 87,120 (upper Bollinger band).
2. Baseline Scenario (50% probability): Low-level oscillation, indicator repair. Macro data is in a vacuum period, and bulls and bears reach a weak balance between 85,000 and 86,000. BTC will continue to digest the weakness of KDJ and the decline of RSI by exchanging time for space, with volume maintaining a moderate level of 3.0k-4.0k BTC, waiting for new macro catalysts.
3. Pessimistic Scenario (20% probability): Macro black swan or chain liquidation. If Treasury yields further surge above 5.2%, or a geopolitical black swan event occurs, it will trigger a comprehensive sell-off of risk assets. BTC will break the 85,239 support and quickly probe down to 84,182.8 (lower Bollinger band) or even the previous low of 83,413.0. Breaking below 83,400 will confirm a complete mid-term bearish trend reversal.
Trading Desk Operation Plan (Not Investment Advice):
During the current extreme oversold and bearish trend battle period, a "defensive counterattack" strategy is recommended. Aggressive traders can lightly go long near 85,200-85,300 with stop loss set below 85,100, targeting 86,000-86,100. Conservative traders should wait for a clear golden cross below 20 on the KDJ and for price to break above VWAP (86,155.9) with volume before entering long positions. Total position size is recommended to be controlled within 5%, with strict stop loss. The market is always right; forecasts are just plans, and response is key.
Risks and Disclaimer: This content is for macro research only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is influenced by macro liquidity, regulatory policies, and on-chain whale behavior, with extremely volatile 1-hour level fluctuations. Actual trends may significantly deviate from predictions. The market carries risks; decisions require independent judgment.Non-farm payrolls fell far short of expectations, which should be positive news, with the Nasdaq and Nvidia both hitting new highs, yet Bitcoin couldn't break through! The data caused a 15-minute spike to 87,238, but after the U.S. stock market opened, it dropped all the way down to 85,366. Doesn't this look familiar? It's the same script as the PCE from the day before yesterday!
So why can't Bitcoin rise? Four reasons:
1️⃣ The positive news was already priced in: Bitcoin had already risen 3% before the data, and the non-farm payrolls just confirmed expectations. A typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario.
2️⃣ U.S. Treasury yields didn't actually fall: The probability of a rate hike in December remains above 75%. Without relief from interest rate pressure, Bitcoin struggles to sustain buying momentum.
3️⃣ Money is chasing AI: Nvidia and the Nasdaq led the gains today. Crypto stocks surged at the open but quickly pulled back after reaching highs.
4️⃣ There is a triple top above 87,300: The price was pushed down from the same level for the third time, indicating heavy selling pressure there.
The daily candle hasn't closed yet, but it already looks like a false breakout. Is it really a false breakout? We can't conclude yet; the key is to watch two levels:
✅ Holding 85,000–85,650: This would be a normal pullback after a breakout, the structure remains intact, and only by reclaiming 87,400 can there be a chance to push toward 90,000.
❌ Breaking below 84,300 on the 4-hour chart: This would confirm today's breakout as false. Next support levels to watch are around 82,500 and the 78,000–80,000 range, with the farthest possible pullback to the 200-day moving average at 71,500. Whale's 207 million: BTC as ballast, ETH as the sail
Before the CPI night, the market bets on a rate cut path, while geopolitics and gold steal the spotlight. But what’s really worth dissecting is that 207 million position: no spreading out, just betting on the core.
BTC is the ballast stone. 1,200 coins, 20x full position long, opened at 70,500, forced liquidation below 62,100. It’s not meant to dazzle, but to stabilize the account. A thick enough buffer prevents being shaken off by sudden spikes—this is the steadfastness of the base position.
ETH is the sail. 43,000 coins, 30x full position long, opened at 2,850, liquidation at 2,210. The 600+ point buffer shows it’s not a bet on a single candlestick, but using leverage to change direction and buffer to survive. It needs flexibility but avoids easy capsizing.
Small positions like SOL and Meme are more like probes: winning adds color, losing doesn’t hurt the principal.
The key to this structure isn’t leverage, but concentration. Hot topics can create legends, but only BTC and ETH can hold large funds and weather macro storms. CPI, interest rate decisions, Middle East, gold prices—all external noise; what decides life or death is the underlying assets and distance to forced liquidation.
Big players don’t buy diversely; they place heavy bets where survival is most likely.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Derivatives — Short Covering Dominates, OI Declines
This is the most important current microstructure signal: Open Interest (OI) decreased by 3% in the past 24 hours while the price rose by 2.16%. Price rising accompanied by OI falling usually indicates more short covering rather than new long entries — shorts are squeezed and forced to close positions, pushing the price up, but the foundation is weaker than a rally driven by strong new long entries.
The aggressive buy/sell ratio is 0.594, meaning that in the recent hour, sell volume was nearly 1.7 times the buy volume. Aggressive market sell orders are pressing the price down. The global long/short ratio is 0.9146, with 52.2% of market positions being short. Even top traders hold 51.2% of their positions short.
The funding rate is only 0.0027%, basically neutral. QCP points out that an annualized funding rate of 5.4% indicates this round of price increase is driven by spot buying rather than leverage, but the derivatives data showing OI decline and aggressive selling dominance contradicts this assessment. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 Brothers, seeing this message in the middle of the night really woke me up!
Just now, an unknown wallet directly unstaked 956,600 $SOL, worth a full 116 million USD! Making such a big move so late at night, honestly, it’s pretty nerve-wracking to watch.
Let’s analyze what this whale might be up to. Unlocking this many tokens could mean a few things: first, they might be preparing to dump and run, throwing over 100 million worth of tokens onto exchanges, which would definitely shake SOL’s price; second, they might have found a big buyer off-exchange and are doing an OTC deal, bypassing the secondary market; third, they could be switching positions or moving into other DeFi projects. After all, everyone’s guessing the market direction these days.
What’s interesting is that this guy chose this timing, clearly trying not to cause too much panic and working quietly. If they really wanted to dump, wouldn’t it be better to sell in batches? Unlocking so many at once is obviously a clear signal to pressure the market.
Anyway, my current move is to stay put and watch if these hundreds of thousands of SOL flow into exchanges. If they do, we need to be cautious and get ready to buy the dip; if not, it’s just a false alarm.🔥 About $360 million liquidated in 24 hours after the non-farm payrolls, with shorts accounting for about 74%, a typical short squeeze
⚡ BTC contract open interest is about $56 billion, funding rate about 3 times the 7-day average, ETH is also pushing towards 2,750, leverage is coming back
⏰ Fast gains don’t mean stable gains, around 87,000 is the next test
📍 Contract data
· About $363 million liquidated in 24 hours, with shorts about $270 million and longs about $93 million, involving about 79,000 people
· BTC perpetual funding rate about 0.0068%, about 3 times the 7-day average, slightly positive but not extreme
· Total BTC contract open interest about 653,000 coins, equivalent to about $56 billion
📊 Analysis
1️⃣ Price up, open interest up, funding rate turns positive, indicating new leveraged longs entering, not just short covering
2️⃣ The 82,300 to 82,600 range below is a dense long liquidation zone; falling back there could trigger cascading liquidations
3️⃣ After a short squeeze, the market depends on whether spot and ETF funds can hold up
🎯 Key points: Holding above 87,000 leaves room to squeeze shorts; a pullback to around 82,000 means longs should be cautious
For current contracts, are you chasing longs, waiting for a pullback, or just watching? Share your thoughts in the comments
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% SAND current price is 0.06246, the 4-hour RSI is still in the overbought zone but has turned downward, with the price rubbing against the lower edge of the 0.0627 long liquidation dense area. This area accumulates leveraged positions from high-level chasing longs; the liquidation chart shows that once 0.0620 is broken, it will trigger continuous strong liquidations, and short-term selling pressure won't come slowly but will crash out instantly.
The rebound supply zone is between 0.0650 and 0.0662, which is the volume-heavy trap zone from the previous day's high spike and pullback, making it difficult to surpass in one go in the short term. Operationally, short in batches on the rebound from 0.0648 to 0.0660, with stop loss set above 0.0672, targeting first 0.0605, and if broken, then 0.0580. Just turned the car into a backstreet shaded by trees, the phone's order reminders make my pocket numb, eyes still glued to the K-line. If it directly breaks below 0.0618 with volume, lightly chase shorts, defending at 0.0635.
Don't randomly buy below 0.0627; that's not support, it's liquidation fuel.
$SNDK
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
@OKX星球 Revised to sound more like Chinese financial news / crypto market updates, adding logical flow and market sentiment analysis while retaining key levels:
Crypto Market Analysis Post Nonfarm Payroll Release
🚨【Why Did the Crypto Market Rally Then Pull Back After the Nonfarm Data?】
The nonfarm payroll data has been released, but the market did not follow the simple "good news = price rise" script.
The data shows that US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only about 29,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. This signals a cooling labor market, but market trading focuses not only on employment data but also on interest rate expectations, US Treasury yields, and capital flows.
📌 $BTC｜Around 85888
After the nonfarm release, BTC briefly surged to 87239 before quickly pulling back.
The 15-minute RSI6 dropped to 26.63, entering the oversold zone, while MACD bearish momentum continues to release.
Key resistance to watch is in the 86600—87200 range;
Support levels are first at 85200, with stronger support at 83700.
A short-term technical rebound is possible, but if the rebound fails to hold above key resistance, beware of a further pullback after the rally.
📌 $ETH｜Around 2723
ETH weakened in sync with BTC, with the 15-minute RSI6 around 27.78, also entering oversold territory.
Resistance: 2760
Support: 2680
Critical defense: 2672
Currently, ETH has not shown any clear independent strength structure and remains mainly influenced by BTC and overall market risk appetite in the short term.
📌 $ZECSold too early. I was worried that BTC would drop right after the labor data release despite the positive news.
WLD is still strong, the strong get stronger. I wonder if it can still be bought back at 0.55?再说财政部回购长债，之前财政部的力度一直不够，说好的60亿一直没有买满，现在来看很有可能就是不想让市场理解为财政部给长债托底，刺激长债卖的太凶 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 就像贝森特说的，财政部加大回购是为了提供流动性，不是为了压制收益率给长债兜底（实则目的很清楚），所以财政部的回购才会遵循一个循序渐进，直到10月1日这一次才买满60亿 但是依旧没有提振市场太多信心，10月1日本次回购操作中，财政部首次买满60亿额度，但是市场提交的卖出额度也飙升至464亿，是回购额度的7.7倍，显然债市卖单更强了 本次回购有一个反常 的结构，本次长债卖家中有41个符合资格的机构，但是财政部只选择了2家进行回购，回购额度虽然满额60亿，但是实际现金支付仅有44.7亿（因为回购的票息计算） 换句话说，财政部本次仅有44.7亿就消除了约60亿的债务，说明财政部在回购中是有价格选择的 那么问题来了，卖方想要以更高的价格卖出，财政部则想要以更低的价格消除债务，短期对长债收益率的压制是有限的，想要通过回购来改善长债端的环境需要更长的时间，我觉得11月4日增额回购的截止日期会被延长 从财政部回购【October 2 OKX Movers List｜The Metaverse didn't take me away, but it took over the top gainers list first 😂】
SAND rose 42.16%, with a trading volume of $6.15 million, ranking first in gains.
This time there was news driving it: the Korean exchange lifted the trading warning on SAND. It looks more like a rebound after previous risk concerns eased, so don't rush to shout "The metaverse bull market is back."
MAGIC rose 19.68%, APE rose 15.75%, several old gaming themes appeared together. My understanding is that the sector is showing linkage, but whether it can continue depends on whether subsequent trading volume can keep up.
NIGHT rose 20.44%, with a trading volume of $13.59 million; WLD rose 15.67%, with a trading volume of $34.91 million. The latter's gain didn't make the top three, but its trading volume exceeded the combined total of the top three in the screenshot. The biggest gainers and the most active trading are two different things.
On the downside, WIN fell 13.35%, DORA fell 12.59%, with trading volumes of only $465,000 and $44,600 respectively. Especially for DORA, the trading volume is too thin, so the decline ranking hardly represents the overall market sentiment.
Remember today: old themes are starting to rebound, those with news lead, and other coins follow the excitement.
Old coins can have a second spring, but don't be the last to hold your position again 😂
Data is as of the screenshot, for OKX list observation only, and does not constitute investment advice.$SNDK was boosted by Micron's positive earnings report, attracting many retail investors to chase the rally.
However, Friday was the last trading day of the week, and many institutions and large investors took the opportunity to cash out and sell off in concentration, causing the market to plunge quickly after the U.S. stock market opened.
But from a technical structure perspective, this round of decline did not break the key daily-level support, representing a short-term consolidation pullback after profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. As always, it is not suitable to short at this stage; continue to observe the effectiveness of the support.Can be changed to a news style more like "Crypto Circle Real-Time Updates + Position Management," enhancing information and interactivity:
Writing
🚨【Latest Trading Position Update】
$CAP currently has an unrealized loss of about 1000U. The question arises: should we continue holding tonight?
Feeling clearly sleepy now; if going straight to sleep, according to the current risk control plan, at least half of the position needs to be reduced first to avoid sudden drastic market fluctuations during sleep.
Should we reduce positions overnight or keep holding and wait for the market?
If reducing, what do you think about cutting 30%, 50%, or going down to a light position directly? 🥲
Also: 🔹 $SAND: The previous short position has hit stop loss; currently watching and not rushing to reopen.
🔹 $CT: The short position currently has an unrealized profit of about 200U; continuing to observe the trend, focusing on whether volume and price coordination appears later.
In this kind of market, position management is more important than direction.
If you're tired, don't force it; control risk first, then consider the next steps.📊$BTC has pulled up, but I'm not in a hurry to chase it.
The reason is simple: it has already risen from around $83,800 to over $87,000 during the session, releasing some of the short-term gains.
The most comfortable approach now is not to guess how much higher it can go, but to wait for the market to give a pullback confirmation.
Whether $85,000 can hold is the key point going forward.
If it holds, continue to watch for a breakthrough above $87,000; if it breaks below $84,000, then the short-term structure needs to be reassessed.
The market happens every day; there's no need to chase just for one position. 目前 $DOGE 在 $0.09615 附近运行，日内上涨约 1.88%，成交量约 $49M。 短线重点关注 $0.095–$0.096 这个关键区域。如果价格先向下扫掉流动性，随后重新站回 $0.097，同时成交量明显放大，那么多头结构可能得到进一步确认。 📌 交易计划： • 入场区间：$0.0955–$0.0970 • 止损：$0.0935 • TP1：$0.099 • TP2：$0.101 • TP3：$0.104 • TP4：$0.108 如果按照计划执行，潜在盈亏比最高可接近 1:5+。 ⚠️ $0.0935 是重要失效位，若跌破，当前交易逻辑需要重新评估。 现在的绿色K线还不能算真正确认。更重要的是观察 流动性扫盘 → 收复关键位置 → 成交量放大 这一完整过程，确认买方是否真正重新占据主动。 #DOGE #Dogecoin #Crypto #DOGEUSDT #DailyOrbit$WLFI
Staking WLFI requires providing rewards of 50 million to 100 million USD1 to have any staking effect. Who has such a large volume to stake? Only the Trump family and the companies partnered with them.
Do you retail investors have such a large volume to stake?
This shows that the market doesn't have much trust in this coin. Everyone is selling off.
The role of WLFI is actually to provide lifeblood to USD1,
It's a very simple principle. The Trump family stakes the chips they hold. They get rewarded every time. Their price will keep dropping.
How much can you retail investors buy? You stake it, but it has no effect at all.
And they will secretly sell as well.
So basically, it's a scam.
The volume of this coin is too large. People who got trapped since last September are still stuck.
There's nothing they can do. The Trump family has no trust. Originally, it was a partnership with Sun Yuchen to harvest.
Neither of them are people with vision.
That's how it ended up like this.
This coin is dead.
They won't pump it for you.
Pumping would let you break even.
You stake your coins and can't move them, but they can pump while selling their coins out.
Even if they don't sell, the volume of coins Trump holds is huge. The weekly rewards he gets are more than any retail investor.
It's just a cycle of cutting leeks.
To keep USD1 alive. Trading for the past ten days, today was the most exhausting day.
$BTC held up against a $2500 drop today, currently still down about $700. If 85200 doesn't hold as support, it will soon enter the 83000-85000 consolidation range!
$ETH at 2702, short 20 ETH, with a maximum loss of $1500, luckily it showed some weakness, so I managed to exit and made a pork knuckle meal. If 2700 doesn't hold as support, it will soon enter the 2650-2695 consolidation range!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% When BTC and ETH rise, $ZEC rise along with them, which is one thing; Now both BTC and ETH are pulling back, while $ZEC is still holding on, even trying to push it higher. The most puzzling question is, if most of the market supply is concentrated in the hands of a few addresses, what does this highly concentrated token structure really mean? If there is no release or selling for a long time, the circulating market will become more sensitive. But if the price remains strong, it makes one wonder: who is taking over? And who is maintaining this strong structure? Of course, price trends alone do not prove manipulation; what really matters is the changes in on-chain holdings, exchange inflows and outflows, and the dynamics of large addresses. $ZEC This market is indeed becoming increasingly confusing 👀 #ZEC #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #DailyOrbit#200 Yuan Challenge to 1 Million Phase 2 · Day 16
Today's account balance: 47.96, today -68.16 (-58.70%). Another night of a big drawdown.
Let's start with the good news. The $CT 10x long position opened yesterday took profit today, +4.96 (+58.66%). This is my highest single-trade return in Phase 2; yesterday's judgment paid off, riding the new coin's trend to a 58.66% gain.
Now the bad news, which is also the reason for today's significant account drawdown:
$SAND 20x, stop loss triggered, -8.22 (-105.07%). A 20x stop loss resulted in a 105% loss, meaning the entire principal was wiped out and then some.
$RESOLV 10x, stop loss triggered, -3.55 (-38.03%).
These three trades together today are my clearest lesson this month: with the same high leverage, CT 10x made 58.66%, while SAND 20x lost 105%. Both were my own trades, both exited by stop loss, the only difference was the leverage. Leverage is an amplifier when making money, but a meat grinder when losing.
I still hold a $SAND 5x short position (35.08 USDT, entry 0.06266), with stop loss already set.
The account has dropped from over a hundred after I re-deposited to 47.96. This rollercoaster ride has made me a bit dizzy, but I report the account honestly, not hiding a single trade.
The part I should scold myself most for today: after making money on CT, I got overconfident and went straight to 20x on SAND. The money earned from CT was lost and then some on SAND. This "getting carried away after a win" flaw, which I've written about many times, happened again today.
Let's discuss in the comments: do you find yourself increasing leverage on the next trade after a win?
Always use stop loss, low leverage, position management, and full disclosure of holdings. For reference only, not investment advice. #Anthropic plans to launch IPO in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving
Broadcom lent Anthropic $42 billion to pay for its chip rent to Broadcom.
▪️ The $42 billion is convertible notes that can be converted into Anthropic shares, covering about one-third of its five-year $125.2 billion TPU lease.
▪️ The chips are actually from Google; Broadcom only does co-design — it acts as designer, lessor, and lender simultaneously.
▪️ Broadcom expects AI chip revenue of $115 billion in 2027, with Anthropic as its largest customer next year.
▪️ The prospectus clearly states: in case of default, most lease obligations become immediately due, while also restricting access to the $42 billion.
▪️ IPO schedule: Investor day on October 14, listing before Thanksgiving on November 26, with valuation estimates between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion.
The disagreement is not about whether $42 billion is enough, but that the borrower and the lessor are the same entity — if things really go wrong, this money will actually be inaccessible.
The $42 billion accounts for only 2.5% of Broadcom's market value. During the 2000 telecom bubble, equipment vendors also lent money to customers to buy their own products — what do you think?Currently holding long positions, short-term focus should be on the upper boundary of the range near $87,300. If BTC can effectively break through and convert 87.3K into new support, then continue to watch: 🎯 TP1:87.3K 🎯 TP2:93K 🎯 TP3:96K–98K If the market extends further, the upside potential may continue to expand, but the key depends on the strength of support after the breakout. On the other hand, if BTC breaks through the range high and continues to test the weekly nPOC near 87.9K, or even further touches 88.23K, I will focus on whether there is a rally and pullback here. If the price falls back below 87.3K and confirms the breakout failed, bearish thinking may reemerge, with the target refocusing on the previous range low. 👀 The most important thing right now is not chasing the rally, but to observe whether the breakout above 87.3K → confirms the → holding #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSDT #DailyOrbitToday's Downvoted $LTC +3.90% | Complaint Set Tone: Bearish $LTC Current price 69.7, short. 3x leverage, take partial short orders from 70.3 to 70.5, stop loss at 71.3, first target 67.0, second target 65.6. The reason is clear: at 2 p.m. on October 2nd, the 1-hour moving average opened at 71.05 and peaked at 71.27, a single needle plunged straight to 69.38 and closed at 69.65, with a single-hour turnover of 6.3 million U, the most aggressive volume in these 48 hours, all invested in distribution. The market makers pushed the price above 71 to lure the long-sellers into buying, then stabbed it down with a single move, crushing those bulls who thought they were about to break out, not even giving them a chance to react. It's a 15-year-old coin, and when it plays with insertion needles, it's even faster than new releases. The digital silver label is almost shattered by it. $LTC This trend started on September 25. That day, it opened at 70.11, peaked at 74.95, with a turnover of 117 million USD—the most glorious day of the seven. But it closed at 72.92, with the upper shadow looking like a lightning rod, clearly someone was selling there. Next, five bearish candlesticks continued to flow downward one after another: September 26 fell 2.47% to close at 71.12; September 27 dropped 1.52% to close at 70.04; December 28 saw the most aggressive single-day plunge of 3.68% to close at 67.45; September 29 dropped 0.53% to close at 67.1.30【Is leverage starting to rush ahead again in this BTC rally?】
$BTC has risen from about $83,500 on September 30 to around $86,500. The funding rate surged from about 3% to 10% in two days, and open interest (OI) increased from 626,000 to 653,000 contracts, an increase of about 27,000 contracts. On the surface, this looks like bulls re-entering the market, with price and OI rising together, indicating new positions are being taken.
But there is an important detail here: OI has just rebounded from a 12-month low, and 653,000 contracts are still some distance from the previous normal level of about 750,000 contracts. The current 10% funding rate looks more like a group of bulls willing to pay higher costs to chase the rally; the sentiment is hot, but it’s not yet a full-blown leverage runaway.
The spot market is actually more worth watching. In September, the US spot BTC ETFs had a net inflow of about $2.65 billion, and on the first day of October, there was also about $103 million inflow, indicating that real money has not disappeared.
So my current view on this rally is that the core contradiction is this: spot funds are supporting the bottom, but contract leverage is starting to rush ahead. Today’s non-farm payrolls were clearly below expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped to about 15%, and BTC has again risen above $86,000, making the short-term environment quite comfortable. But if the funding rate continues to stay high, OI keeps surging, and spot inflows can’t keep up, once this long crowd gets crowded, the pullback will be fierce.$BTC has already touched $87,000, the question is: can it truly break through this time?
Currently, the price has pulled back to around $85,500, indicating that the resistance above is still significant.
If it tests $87,000 again with a simultaneous increase in trading volume, it will be worth paying close attention to.
Conversely, if it rallies but then continues to fall back, losing the $84,000–$85,000 range again, the short-term trend may return to consolidation.
So my focus right now is very clear:
It's not about guessing whether it will rise or fall, but about seeing which $BTC level gets taken out first.
Levels are more important than sentiment. The patient lying on this operating table is not a person, but a heart undergoing decompensation—$UMA short-term RSI1H surged to 68.0, with the upper band position already reaching 118%, meaning the aortic pressure has pierced through the vessel wall, yet its long-term RSI is only 45.8, and the heart rate remains inert. This "localized high pressure, systemic low perfusion" hemodynamic pattern is typical of preload insufficiency combined with transient stress, not true recovery.
In 24H, it only rose 1.96%, but the price was pushed 0.3% beyond the short-term upper Bollinger Band—pseudo pulsation caused by a micro dose of vasopressor. On the mid-term cycle, the price is at the 80th percentile, with a 3.1% buffer from the lower band. The compliance of the two heart chambers has already diverged; going long at this time is like stitching on the tear of an aortic dissection.
My diagnosis is: the systolic peak pressure has passed, next comes diastolic collapse. Post-operation, a drainage channel must be established.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.38 (current price +3.2%, i.e., after rebound confirming jugular vein distension before catheterization)
Take Profit 1: 0.34 (-5.4%, first suture point)
Take Profit 2: 0.35 (-3.0%, backup suture)
Stop Loss: 0.42 (+15.2%, once breached, indicates ventricular fibrillation rather than transient stress, immediately terminate the operation)
Note that the stop loss requires a 15.2% extracorporeal circulation margin, which precisely indicates this entry’s tolerance window is extremely narrow; this is not a routine bypass but an emergency thoracotomy. Without this 15.2% blood reserve, the operation should not proceed.
The lesion is not in the price rise or fall, but in the mismatch between momentum and structure. When the short-term RSI 68.0 cannot drive the long-term RSI from 45.8 upward, it indicates the main blood supply trunk is still blocked. Such a patient may have a heartbeat on the monitor one second, and no pulse activity the next.
Target 2 is set at 0.35, closer than Target 1 at 0.34; this arrangement itself suggests: suture the superficial layer first, then decide whether to suture deeper.$$BTC Everyone knows the narrative: October is supposed to be bullish for Bitcoin. But what if this time, the market does the opposite? As I explained in my previous post, I’m comparing the current structure with previous bearish-cycle structures. The key difference is timing. The current structure is developing in a similar way, but Bitcoin is currently only around the middle of the sequence. The full structure has not played out yet, and the true cycle bottom has not been formed. Look at AuguStarting with the night session's top gainers, the most eye-catching right now is $MAGIC—perpetual around 0.0646, up about 22% from the 24-hour open at 0.0530, with a daily high of 0.0665 and a daily low of 0.0529. Contract volume is nearly 180 million U.
Open interest nominally around one million dollars, with a slightly negative fee rate. BTC is hovering around 85,500, and ETH is about 2694. Altcoin night session sentiment remains hot; short-term focus is on the 0.062 area—don't let go easily, chasing highs can lead to losses.
$BTC $ETH $MAGIC #MAGIC #TopGainers #Altcoins #NightSession #USSeptemberNonFarmPayrollsOnlyUp29KUnemploymentRateRisesTo4.2% #BTCETHSpotETFsSimultaneousOutflowsFundsCoolDown #USBondYieldsHitNewHighsLongTermRatePressureUnrelieved #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; the market carries risks, trade cautiously. At this point, holding this long position and taking the hit really feels a bit frustrating.
After $ETH surged to 2777.70, it immediately reversed and dropped. I entered a long position, and now I'm stuck with unrealized losses. I originally thought it could rally again riding the market momentum, but the selling pressure above was so fierce that the bulls' relay was completely broken.
The hourly indicators are quickly moving downwards, RSI has already dropped to a low level, showing a slight desire for a short-term rebound, but the heavy selling pressure hasn't been fully absorbed yet. It's now stuck around 2696, with the key support at 2672 below. If that doesn't hold, it will continue to retrace deeper.
Bitcoin has started to fluctuate and pull back from the highs, and Ethereum lacks the strength to independently rally. When the market takes a breather, it falls faster than anyone else. Many chased longs at the top and are stuck inside just like me. The market just doesn't follow the majority's expectations.
I'm not blindly cutting losses now, nor am I casually adding positions. After a high-level surge and pullback, don't rush to bet on an immediate reversal; wait for clear signals from the market before making plans. In crypto trading, getting stuck in positions is normal, so don't let your mindset collapse first.
Damn, holding through this is really tough.
Follow me, those who understand will understand.
This is just market observation and does not constitute investment advice.$BTC $ETH $XAU actually fell!
The non-farm payroll data came out, and it was very weak.
According to the old logic:
The Federal Reserve might cut interest rates,
so gold and cryptocurrencies should rise.
But BTC, ETH, and gold fell, while the US stock semiconductor sector's AI concept surged.
Why is this?
It shows the market panicked first—fearing an economic recession.
Quickly selling assets to convert to dollars to cover margin for other assets.
Gold and crypto are easy to sell, so they were hit first.
Plus, with the dollar strengthening and interest rates still high,
holding these non-yielding assets is not worthwhile,
and crypto itself is fragile, so when it falls, it follows the trend.
Why did US semiconductor and AI stocks rise instead?
Because the expectation of rate cuts lowers interest rates,
reducing valuation pressure on tech stocks;
more importantly, AI is booming,
and companies like Nvidia have solid earnings and stories.
After funds fled gold and crypto,
they didn’t stay idle but turned to buy profitable tech leaders.
In short:
The weak non-farm data doesn’t mean the market blindly buys rate cuts,
but looks at who can make money.
Gold and crypto have no interest and are being drained;
semiconductors and AI have earnings and are supported by funds.
One falls, the other rises.Even though I'm bullish, I still hope $OKB drops a bit! As a HODLer, it's really frustrating when it won't go down! My current position is too light, I want to add more but don't want to do it above $120. The current trend and volume both show some signs of topping out, but my gut tells me this might be a bear trap. I really can't think of any group of people who would sell $OKB at $120; instead, people like me who are eager to get in should be the majority. $OKB has no weaknesses from any perspective, and its market cap is low. I believe it's a seriously undervalued platform token, so wanting it to pull back 10% is really tough!A while ago, I was scrolling through my phone late at night and saw someone say just hold $BTC. On a whim, I downloaded an app, spent a long time verifying, and after buying, my hands were shaking. When it went up a bit, I wanted to sell; when it dropped a bit, I wanted to buy more. After a week of messing around, I lost quite a bit in fees. Later, a colleague talked about $ETH, saying it was a bit more stable. I followed the trend and bought in, but it stayed flat for half a month. Every day it was the same when I opened the app. I just couldn’t take it and sold. A few days after selling, it started moving. I stared at the screen and kept hitting my leg. Then I randomly looked at $SOL, bought it, and got stuck. It was stuck for almost two months, and my account was turning green (losing money) making me anxious. The day I broke even, I immediately sold. After selling, it jumped up again. I chuckled and closed the app. Now I don’t mess around anymore. I only play with spare money, don’t touch contracts, don’t borrow money, and don’t listen to trading tips. If I make money, I treat myself to a good meal; if I lose, I consider it tuition. I check at most twice a day. Being able to sleep soundly at night is better than anything. This isn’t a path for ordinary people to get rich quickly. Just treat it as a high-risk hobby and don’t put your life on the line. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 $ETH is currently around $2,699, with an average opening price of about $2,701.99, and the position is temporarily in a floating profit. Meanwhile, $AAVE's short positions are still bearing some unrealized losses. The market is currently in a high-level oscillation phase, and the momentum of bullish momentum seems to have weakened. After some altcoins surged rapidly earlier, short-term profit-taking and leverage risks are worth watching, and the market could experience significant volatility at any time. $ETH has already shown some signs of a pullback, which has allowed bears to see some new opportunities. However, the battle between bulls and bears remains intense, and I prefer to wait for further confirmation of price and trading volume rather than simply betting on a large bearish candlestick. 📌 Several variables worth watching in the current market: • 🇺🇸 US September nonfarm payroll data significantly below expectations • 📊 Signs of cooling in BTC and ETH spot ETF fund flows • 💵 US Treasury yields remain high, and long-term interest rate pressures have not fully eased • ⚠️ High-leverage positions face significant rapid volatility and liquidation risks Next, focus on whether $ETH can continue to weaken, and whether more obvious bearish momentum emerges after key support is breached #ETH #BTC #AAVE #Crypto #Ethereum #Bitcoin今天的非农数据确实有点“离谱”——美国9月非农就业仅增加 2.9万人，明显低于市场约 8.4万–9万人的预期；失业率也从4.1%升至 4.2%，同时7月和8月就业数据合计被下修6万人。平均时薪环比仅增长 0.1%，同比增速放缓至 3.0%。 至于这份数据到底是不是“失真”，其实没必要纠结。 市场真正关注的是：就业明显降温，会不会进一步压低美联储短期继续加息的必要性？ 简单理解： 🔹 如果数据确实反映经济降温 → 美联储客观上缺少继续加息的理由； 🔹 如果数据受到季节性调整等因素影响 → 市场同样可能借此降低对10月加息的预期。 目前市场反应已经比较明显：就业数据公布后，美债收益率回落，市场对10月加息的押注进一步下降，风险资产获得喘息空间。 对 $BTC 来说，这种组合短线偏友好： 弱就业 → 加息预期下降 → 美债收益率承压 → 流动性压力缓和 → BTC获得支撑。 BTC也一度重新冲上 $87,000附近，随后回落至 $85,000上下，说明市场正在消化这份非农，而不是单纯追涨。 所以现在更值得观察的不是“非农是真是假”，而是： BTC能否守住 $83K–$84K，并重新站稳 When looking at this potential Cup and Handle playing out for $ALGO, the typical retracement for the handle is the swing low to swing high .382 fib. It still has a bit to get there but does not have to.
The lowest the bottom of a handle can go and be a legitimate C&H structure is the .5. Lastly, C&H's are only valid if at least 7 weeks in development, which this is. Let's see how it continues to play out.Tonight, the September non-farm payroll data was significantly below expectations, with an increase of only 29,000 versus the expected 90,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and wage growth was also lower than estimated. After the data release, the market immediately lowered the probability of a Fed rate hike in October, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and BTC rallied accordingly, surging close to 87,000 before slightly pulling back.
From a technical perspective, the previously repeatedly tested resistance zone of 85,000-85,500 was broken through with strong volume, turning the original resistance into short-term support, now around 85,500~86,000. The short-term resistance above is at 87,500. After this sharp rally, a lot of profit-taking positions have accumulated, making it difficult to break through in one go, with a high probability of consolidation at the top. As long as the price holds above 85,500 on pullbacks, the bullish structure will remain stable. If it falls below this level, it will return to range-bound oscillation.
ETH remains the same, following BTC with much weaker momentum and unable to keep up with BTC’s gains. Resistance is at 2,820, support at 2,730. Without independent capital entering, it can only passively follow the overall market fluctuations.
Trading strategy: Do not chase the impulsive rise triggered by the news at high levels. Wait for the price to pull back to support and observe the absorption before considering buying the dip. Once it breaks through and holds above 87,500, or falls below 85,500, adjust operations accordingly.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Who should we trade contracts for now?
Overall, $ETH looks better after risk adjustment, with capital inflow and more controllable volatility, so prioritize $ETH contracts this round. But $BTC at the double top resistance of 85,633 is also a good shorting position. Two approaches:
Plan A Conservative: Long $ETH, enter at 2,650-2,680, stop loss at 2,620, target 2,749 / 2,780, 3x leverage. Risk-reward ratio 2.3 / 3.2. Play it safe and ride the $ETH capital inflow trend.
Plan B Recommended: Short $BTC, place orders at 85,400-85,633, stop loss at 86,400, target 83,500 / 82,500, 5x leverage. Risk-reward ratio 2.3 / 3.4. Short at $BTC double top resistance, clear structure and comfortable risk-reward.
Plan C Aggressive: Limit short $BTC at 85,633 + limit short $ETH at 2,749 simultaneously, stop loss at 86,200 / 2,760 respectively, target $BTC 82,500 / $ETH 2,634, 8x leverage. Risk-reward ratio 3.4 / 4.5. Short both resistance levels together; if both break, admit the mistake. Not for the faint-hearted.【Skill issued a 2B short signal near today's highest point】 and then it started to plunge! 【Of course, I personally will never short before 2029-2030】 This trend is as expected! What’s next? Guidance has been issued! Capital Flow: ETF Turns to Inflow, but Structure Remains "Unbalanced"
ETF—Net Inflow of $103 Million, Ending Single-Day Outflow
On October 1, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $102.7 million, quickly reversing the previous day's outflow of $148.7 million. BlackRock IBIT led with an inflow of $196 million, Grayscale Mini Trust saw an inflow of $14.59 million, while Fidelity FBTC experienced an outflow of $60.73 million. The total net asset value of ETFs stands at $109.338 billion, with a cumulative net inflow of $57.598 billion.
This is not a broad institutional return—IBIT alone contributed all the inflows, offsetting FBTC's outflows, with funds still concentrating on leading products. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 PK Day | Verdict on $ETH, who won this round?
$ETH won this round—not because it rose more, but because it was steadier. $BTC gained +0.51% over the week, slightly more than $ETH's +0.37%, but $BTC's volatility at 18% is double $ETH's 9%. The Sharpe ratio of $ETH at 3.10 crushes $BTC's 2.11. More importantly, where is the money flowing: $ETH had a net inflow of 38.1 million U over the week, while $BTC saw an outflow of 27.6 million U—smart money voted with their feet for $ETH. The whales are dodging around $BTC, while $ETH quietly accumulates; this time, the steady ones are taking the profits.
Who earns more can endure more
In the 6-day window, $BTC's return of +0.51% slightly beats $ETH's +0.37%, but $BTC's maximum drawdown of 1.2% is nearly twice $ETH's 0.7%—earning more but also falling more, leverage only turns drawdowns into liquidation traps.
Looking at the normalized return curves, $BTC plunged deeply on 9/28 and bounced high on 10/01, with large swings like a roller coaster; $ETH moved more smoothly over the week, like taking a walk. Choose $BTC if you seek thrills, choose $ETH if you want a good night's sleep. To truly outperform, $ETH can't just rely on the overall market rally. If on-chain fees, stablecoin activity, and institutional allocations all recover together, capital will revalue it; if these indicators don't keep up, the rebound is likely to remain weaker than $BTC. I tend to wait for relative strength to pick up before adding more, and stop if it falls back into the range. Expert: Learning to read information is more important than fixedly staring at candlesticks—a few key points and how to observe Many people entering crypto start by learning candlesticks, indicators, and drawing lines. But real experts will tell you: learning to read information, collect information, and understand financial knowledge is far more important than learning to read candlesticks. Candlesticks reflect past prices and current sentiment, while information determines capital flows, valuation logic, and future direction. The sharp rises and falls you see are often just the result after information is realized. 1. Why information is more important than candlesticks Candlesticks are the effect, information is the cause. Nonfarm payroll data shocked, Fed rate hike expectations plummeted, Bitcoin surged nearly 3% in an hour, and short positions were liquidated $27.5 million. The CLARITY bill failed in the Senate, and Bitcoin fell below $75,000 that day. The starting point of these fluctuations is not in candlesticks, but in information. If you only look at candlesticks, you'll always look for reasons afterward; Only by understanding the information can you predict where funds will go in advance. 2. Key Areas Recommended by Experts First, the Federal Reserve and interest rate path. This is the biggest macro variable in the current crypto market. Focus on the CME FedWatch rate hike probability, FOMC statement wording, dot plot changes, and the three major data points: CPI, PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls. Don't just look at the numbers themselves; look at the gap between the numbers and expectations. September's nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, compared to the expected 84,000. This huge gap in expectations is the real reason for the market's sharp reaction. Second, U.S. Treasury yields and dollar liquidity. Whether the 10-year Treasury yield holds steady at 5%,No breakthrough, no establishment; it's the same formula again. The surge to 87000 still faced market pressure. This position remains as strong as ever. Fortunately, the strategy was clear and effective. The long position during the day passed all tests, successfully reaching the target of 87000. During this period, everyone was reminded to take profits and exit. The intraday long position on Bitcoin won twice in a row. After successfully closing the 84500 long in the morning with a gain of over 2000 points, the market briefly faced pressure and correction in the afternoon. Following the trend, we went long again. After the non-farm payroll data was released in the evening, the market stretched as expected, probing near 87200, reminding everyone to decisively take profits.
Currently, the market rhythm is mainly focused on correction. The rally volume was blocked and fell back, with market pressure rising again. On the four-hour chart, the strong seven consecutive bullish candles structure was interrupted. After a brief continuation of the rally, market pressure returned and prices fell back. The short-term bulls have lost strength. With the weekend approaching, the market's need for correction continues to stimulate activity. Therefore, for short-term positioning, we follow the trend and wait for a pullback to meet correction demand.
For Bitcoin shorts, watch the pullback near 84500; Ethereum follows closely, watching around 2679.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC $ETH What multiple clients truly protect against is the same bug hitting everyone.
Ethereum's execution layer and consensus layer each have multiple independent clients implemented by different teams using different languages and code structures to realize the same protocol. If one client has a defect, other implementations may still produce correct results, giving the network a chance to respond without a complete shutdown. The premise is that the share cannot be overly concentrated in a single implementation; otherwise, "multiple options" is just a diverse list, not diverse operation. Client diversity also increases testing and coordination costs, as every upgrade must confirm consistent boundary conditions, which is exactly the security cost Ethereum is willing to bear. For $ETH, multiple clients cannot guarantee never making mistakes, but they can reduce the probability of a single software bug controlling the entire network simultaneously. Health assessment should be based on the actual node distribution, failover, and version adoption, not just how many names are listed on the official website.
Operators who actively choose minority clients are buying insurance for the entire network but may bear higher maintenance costs. If the ecosystem only rewards short-term convenience without supporting such choices, diversity will gradually be eroded by efficiency.
A software list is not security; real usage distribution is security.
Diversity must be reflected in real nodes. $ETH Follower
$ETH current price 2,705, grinding within the 2,634-2,749 range this week, weaker than $BTC — the weekly high of 2,749 (9/29) failed to hold and retracted. After dropping to the weekly low of 2,634 on 9/28, it bounced back. OI saw 96 million U flow out during 9/29-9/30, then 90 million returned on 10/1 — money came back but price only rose 1%, same as $BTC. Short-term play with $ETH: short on rebound at 2,720-2,749, stop loss at 2,760, target 2,650; only a break below 2,634 tells a new story. Bias: bearish, short on rebounds. $BTC How to read this chart
Looking at the main chart, on 9/28 a large bearish candle smashed down to 82,500, the weekly low, with a volume of 1.31 billion U, the highest of the week, indicating panic selling was fully unleashed. On 9/29-30, it bounced up to touch 85,633 but was pushed back down to 83,577; the long upper shadow indicates a supply zone above 85,633, where bulls were rejected. On 10/1, it closed at 84,830, inching upward but still about 800 points short of 85,633.
Looking at the trendline: the descending resistance line connects the 9/30 peak at 85,633 to the 10/01 secondary high at 85,265, with a nearly flat but downward slope, pressing down from above; the predicted rebound targets are T1 around 85,231 (midpoint between current price and resistance) and T2 around 84,776 (1% below resistance), indicating the rebound space is very compressed; an alternative pullback target is 80,850 (2% below support at 82,500). After MA3 crossed below MA5 on 9/30, it turned back up on 10/1, with moving averages tangled and directionless.
Funding rate climbed from 0.0017% on 9/26 to 0.0065% on 10/1, showing bulls are adding leverage but far from extreme levels (extreme is usually above 0.03%). Conclusion: Short if 85,633 is not broken; if broken, switch to long.In July, it was cut from +21,000 to -10,000, and in August, it was cut from 162,000 to 133,000—a total loss of 60,000 over two months. September was even more outrageous, with only 29,000 reported, far below the expected 90,000. $BTC $ETH $ZEC I just want to ask, what big thing really happened in the US in September? Did that mid-September rate hike really crush the job market? Was the effect so immediate? Don't forget, the current Director of Labor Statistics was newly nominated by Trump, only took office in mid-August, and before he even settled in, he started making major data changes? Once the data came out, US Treasury yields immediately fell, and US stocks hit new highs. This approach was exactly the same as in September: the media flooded the market with 'no rate hikes,' but in the end, they still raised the numbers. This month might repeat itself—though they say they won't increase, their holdings haven't stopped. #美国9月非农仅增2 9,000, unemployment rate rises to 4.2%. #BTC ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously being withdrawn, cooling capital sentiment #美债收益率频创新高, long-term interest rate pressure has not eased