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Changxin Technology will open tomorrow for its IPO, and overseas AI giants face a "major test" in their earnings reports.
Next week is the last trading week of the month, and the market is about to experience two major key market moments:
First, Changxin Technology, the top IPO of the year in the A-share market, officially debuted on the STAR Market, directly reshaping the domestic memory sector landscape;
Second, the global storage giants + US AI weights collectively disclosed their earnings reports, resonating in both domestic and international markets, directly finalizing the mid-term trends of the chip and technology sectors.
Insider funds have mostly been watching and gathering strength this week, with the market accelerating completely starting tomorrow.
▶️ Changxin's IPO revenue gradient
Changxin issue price at 8.66 yuan per share, with a fixed 500 shares per STAR Market contract, a participation capital of 4,330 yuan, and an initial market capitalization of 579.2 billion yuan.
Based on the multi-dimensional valuation model of brokers, below are the range aligned with institutional expectations, with different price increases corresponding to stock prices, total market capitalization, and single contract net profit gradients, and ranges aligned with institutional expectations:
✅ 100% increase | Market value 1.16 trillion yuan | Stock price 17.32 yuan | Net profit of 4,330 yuan per single sign
✅ Up 200% | Market value 1.74 trillion | Stock price 25.98 yuan | Net profit of 8,660 yuan per single contract
✅ Up 300% | Market cap 2.32 trillion yuan | Stock price 34.64 yuan | Net profit of 12,990 yuan per sign
✅ 400% increase | Market value 2.90 trillion yuan | Stock price 43.30 yuan | Net profit of 17,320 yuan per sign
✅ Up 500% | Market value 3.48 trillion yuan | Stock price 51.96 yuan | Net profit of 21,650 yuan per sign
✅ Up 600% | Market value 4.05 trillion yuan | Stock price 60.62 yuan | Net profit of 25,980 yuan per sign
Objectively speaking, considering conservative to ultra-optimistic valuations, the reasonable first-day fluctuation range is 70%-600%, corresponding to winning profits of 3,000-26,000 yuan. A rise of over 600% is purely market sentiment speculation, lacking fundamental support, and chasing the price with minimal cost-effectiveness.
▶️ The core logic of Changxin's valuation
There is significant market disagreement over Changxin's valuation, but the core logic is actually very clear. The initial market value of 579.2 billion yuan comes from genuine institutional inquiry pricing, providing a solid safety cushion rather than a sentiment-driven valuation.
The company's performance has surged this year, with a full annual profit forecast of 100 billion yuan. Compared to overseas storage giants, its current forward valuation is within a reasonable range. At the same time, as a rare domestic DRAM mass production target in A-shares, benefiting from expectations of domestic substitution and technological breakthroughs, it carries a valuation premium, with a reasonable valuation center of 1.5-2 trillion yuan.
A rational view of the market is needed. The storage industry has strong cyclical attributes, and current high performance relies on short-term AI dividends. Coupled with the company's ongoing technological gap with leading overseas firms, the high valuation driven by short-term sentiment creates pressure to absorb the gains, so blind chasing is not recommended.
▶️ A-share market forecast for tomorrow
Changxin's listing will directly affect the capital flow of the A-share technology sector. Tomorrow, the market will show obvious structural differentiation, with core changes concentrated in three points:
1. Capital Divergence: Large transactions in the secondary market will divert existing funds from tech tracks like AI hardware and semiconductor design. Without market growth, small tech stocks are likely to come under pressure.
2. Stock switching: With the establishment of leading storage manufacturing companies, funds will shift from marginal stocks like modules and controllers to Changxin's core leaders, clearly showing a trend of de-weak while keeping strong.
3. Industry Chain Benefits: The company's funds raised for capacity expansion and equipment procurement directly benefit upstream semiconductor equipment and materials supporting sectors, providing sustained catalysts.
▶️ Overseas Storage Financial Report Outlook
Next Wednesday, major overseas storage leaders will release their earnings reports in concentrated numbers, which will be key to verifying the current AI storage boom and will also influence the mid-term market outlook for A-share semiconductors:
▪️ SK Hynix (7.29): Predicts the industry shortage will continue into 2030, focusing on chip price increases as they take effect
▪️ Samsung (7.30): Early positive factors have been overwhelmed, focusing on HBM shipments and order guidance
▪️ Kioxia (7.31): Market value fluctuates sharply; earnings reports will verify the authenticity of industry prosperity
Institutions generally believe that the HBM capacity shortage will persist until 2027, and as long as the current financial data remains solid, the mid-term rally in the storage sector is likely to continue.
▶️ Reference for U.S. AI earnings sentiment
Next week, US AI tech giants will concentrate on earnings disclosures, and the market will show clear style divergence this year: heavy-asset semiconductors are strengthening, while tech companies that have made significant investments in AI are showing weakness, which can serve as a reference for the peripheral sentiment of the A-share tech sector.
The core suppression is that the market does not recognize the sustained capital investment of AI companies without returns; previously, Alphabet plunged due to excessive spending. This sentiment may slightly transmit to A-shares but will not change the independent market trend of domestic storage.
Overall, tomorrow it is advisable to focus on seizing the structural opportunity presented by Changxin's IPO and cautiously participate in secondary market chasing gains.
Next week, focus on tracking the performance of overseas storage earnings reports, avoid short-term sentiment fluctuations caused by US AI earnings, and pay attention to trading rhythm.Uni Short-term: All the good news has been exhausted, so early profit-taking is normal.
Voting on fee proposals (v4 protocol fees + Robinhood Chain scaling) ended on July 25, with extremely high support and entering queued mode, about to be executed. All new protocol fees will continue to flow into the existing UNI burn mechanism (TokenJar). Short-term traders treat "proposal approval" as event-driven and realize profits early, which is completely reasonable.
But from a long-term perspective, the significance of this matter goes far beyond "burning a bit more coins."
1. Significant increase in buyback/burn efforts
After the proposal passes, protocol fee coverage will be greatly expanded (v4 selected pools + Robinhood Chain v2/v3), and the burn pace will accelerate noticeably. Hayden himself has clearly stated that, based on current transaction volume, especially Robinhood Chain, the impact on UNI burn will be "substantial."
You can wait about a month for actual on-chain data to come out, then conduct a horizontal backtest against $HYPE's annual buyback ratio—the numbers will be more convincing.
2. Uniswap's innovation genes remain leading
v1/v2: Simplifying and popularizing AMM as the underlying standard for DeFi.
v3: Pioneered Hyundai CLAMM, allowing each LP to customize its price range within the same pool.
v4: Pioneered and centered on the Pool Lifecycle Hook, standardizing permissionless AMM extension architecture.
As the pioneer of DEXs, almost every major upgrade has redefined the industry's gameplay.
3. Default liquidity entry in reality
Currently, for most EVM chain launch platforms, Uniswap remains the preferred pool. v4's Hook gives launch platforms huge customization space (custom fees, dynamic logic, auction mechanisms, etc.). Of course, alpha launches on BSC are still dominated by Pancake, but Uniswap's position as a first-mover and standard remains solid in the overall landscape.
4. Scalability is far from the ceiling
New mechanisms like CCA auction issuance have already proven strong product expansion potential, though currently they are relatively restrained. This "capable but not overly aggressive" pace is actually more beneficial for long-term ecosystem health.
Previously, $UNI was criticized for being "unempowered," but now, through UNIfication + protocol fees, continuous burning, the value capture path has become clearer.
First-mover advantage + continuous product innovation + almost leading the evolution of on-chain DEXs allows for bolder possibilities—the true on-chain Nasdaq is not just empty talk.
Proposal Details:
vote.uniswapfoundation.org/proposals
What do you all think?
#新手必看: Everything you need is here
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Key Rules for Trading New OKX Listings
Avoid Buying the First 15-Minute Candle: Initial spikes are often driven by pre-listing token holders taking profit.
Wait for Base Formation: Let the price establish a 1H/4H support level before opening positions.
Use Strict Stop-Losses: Liquidity depth can be thin in early days, leading to wider slippage during market-wide moves.
#EarningsRealityCheck
#CLARITYActStalled #KoreaAIChipPush 📅 2026-07-26（周日）夜间盘面与宏观复盘
💾 一、长鑫存储：明日登陆科创板
长鑫存储（CXMT）将于周一上市，是亚洲今年最受关注的 IPO 之一。目前 HYPE 已上线 CXMT Pre-IPO 永续，存储板块的市场热度也在持续上升。
这次上市影响的不只是 A 股半导体板块，还可能带动全球存储产业链重新估值，重点关注：
Micron（MU）
SK Hynix
Samsung
SanDisk
如果长鑫存储上市首日表现明显超出预期，资金可能进一步向存储芯片及相关产业链扩散，这也是本周最值得观察的事件之一。
📈 二、美股与科技股：进入财报超级周
本周科技股财报将密集公布，重点包括：
Microsoft
Meta
Apple
Amazon
市场现在已经不再讨论“AI 有没有未来”，而是开始追问一个更现实的问题：
巨额 AI 资本开支什么时候能够转化为收入和利润？
Microsoft 和 Amazon 需要证明云业务与 AI 服务的变现能力；Meta 需要证明 AI 对广告效率的提升；Apple 则要回答 AI 能否真正推动新一轮硬件换机周期。
本周财报结果，很可能决定科技股和 AI 主线下一阶段的方向。
🪙 三、BTC与ETH：大事件前的等待模式
BTC、ETH 今日波动不大，属于典型的大事件前资金观望行情。
短期主要情景仍然取决于美联储：
如果美联储释放偏鸽信号，流动性预期改善，BTC、ETH 有望继续走强；
如果表态偏鹰，美债收益率和美元重新走高，则需要防范风险资产同步回调。
当前位置不适合因为周末的小幅波动频繁改变方向，更重要的是等待本周宏观事件给出确认。
🔥 四、HYPE：重点仍然是生态扩张
HYPE 今天的重点并不是价格，而是生态正在持续完善，并开始覆盖越来越多的传统资产和 Pre-IPO 标的。
这也是我长期关注 HYPE 的核心原因之一。
如果未来链上 DEX 能够继续争夺中心化交易所的市场份额，HYPE 依旧属于值得持续跟踪的第一梯队项目。
🟡 五、黄金与原油：暂时缺少新催化
黄金
周末市场休市，盘面没有明显变化。短期继续关注美元和美债收益率走势，本周美联储表态将是黄金最重要的方向变量。
原油
原油继续围绕地缘政治和供应风险交易，目前暂时没有出现特别新的催化，等待周一开盘后的资金反馈。
🗓️ 六、本周关键事件日历
⭐ 周一
长鑫存储上市
⭐ 周三
美联储利率决议
Microsoft 财报
Meta 财报
⭐ 周四
Apple 财报
Amazon 财报
美国 GDP 数据
⭐ 周五
美国 PCE 数据
中国 PMI 数据
💡 今日交易思考
真正的大行情，往往并不是从新闻公布的那一刻才开始。
在重要事件落地之前，资金通常已经提前调整仓位、布局方向。很多人还在关注 BTC 今天涨了还是跌了 0.5%，但真正决定未来一个月市场走势的，可能是：
美联储的政策态度
科技巨头的财报表现
AI CapEx 的实际回报
长鑫存储上市后的市场反馈
所以，与其纠结周末有没有波动，我更愿意把注意力放在一个问题上：
下一阶段，哪些资产会成为资金最愿意持续买入的方向？
市场已经进入超级周，耐心等待关键事件落地，再根据结果调整方向。
以上仅为个人市场观察，不构成任何投资建议。#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 Majority leader says the CLARITY bill is difficult to pass before the recess—is this really bearish?
When the market sees "difficulty passing before the recess," the market's first reaction is usually a slowdown in regulatory progress, which is bearish for the crypto market.
But what I focus on more is another question: is market trading about "time" or "direction"?
If the legislative timeline is only delayed rather than a policy direction reversed, then it is more like a shift in the pace of expected fulfillment, rather than logic being overturned.
A common phenomenon in the capital market is that everyone knows a favorable trend will come, but what truly affects prices is not "whether it will come," but "when it will come" or "how much the market has traded in advance."
From a trading perspective, I prefer to understand this kind of news as:
* Short-term trading may affect market sentiment, and risk appetite for funds may cool;
* In the medium to long term, continue to observe whether the U.S. regulatory framework continues to move in a clearer direction.
Many people like to simply divide news into positive or negative news, but the real complexity of the market lies in the fact that the same message can mean completely different outcomes at different stages.
If the market has already priced in advance and quickly passed, then the extension is bearish; If market expectations were already low, the extension may not necessarily change the trend.
This is also the trading approach I've always adhered to:
Don't rush to judge the news itself, but rather assess the discrepancy between the news and market expectations. What really drives prices is often not events, but disappointing expectations.
In the future, I will continue to monitor legislative progress, but more focused on whether funds are reallocating risk assets due to changes in regulatory expectations, rather than changing their trading logic based on a single piece of news.
Do you think the extension of the CLARITY Act is just a matter of time, or will it affect the overall direction of U.S. crypto regulation? Feel free to share your thoughts. $ETH After watching the market in the evening, I was about to shut down my computer, but then I came across the new continuous announcements from Jensen Huang over the past two days. My first reaction was not to look at Nvidia, but to wonder: will the Korean stock AI industry chain become the market focus tomorrow?
Recently, compared to short-term price fluctuations, I have been paying more attention to changes in the industry chain because, often, large capital looks beyond one or two days to the supply and demand pattern over the coming years.
What is particularly noteworthy this time is that Jensen Huang not only announced that Nvidia's future cooperation scale with SK Group will exceed $500 billion, but also stated that they will lock in the purchase of SK Hynix's HBM for many consecutive years. Meanwhile, Anthropic has also reached long-term cooperation agreements with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Putting these pieces of news together, I feel the signals released are even more important than many companies' quarterly financial reports.
Several leading global AI companies are almost simultaneously integrating the Korean memory industry into their core supply chains, indicating that market competition is no longer just between models but is beginning to extend to underlying hardware and supply chains.
My own understanding is that such cooperation may not immediately reflect in stock prices in the short term, but it will indeed impact the long-term expectations of the entire industry chain.
Jensen Huang also mentioned that the global semiconductor industry scale could expand to 10 times its current size over the next decade. His core point is very clear: future computing power demand will not only come from humans but also from an increasing number of AI Agents, robots, and other intelligent terminals.
If this direction continues to materialize, the real beneficiaries will not be limited to GPUs.
Components like HBM, high-bandwidth memory, advanced packaging, data centers, and power infrastructure may all face long-term supply tightness and sustained demand growth. This is why I have been focusing on the AI industry chain recently, rather than just watching a few model companies.
Of course, I also think the current market valuation of AI is already high, and short-term overheating or even valuation bubbles are normal phenomena.
But I have always believed that bubbles will eventually be digested by the market, and what truly remains are technology and productivity.
When AI in the future not only serves humans but also begins to serve billions of AI Agents and robots, the entire society's production methods, business models, and even industry divisions may undergo significant changes.
Therefore, I will not dismiss the entire AI logic because of a few days of short-term fluctuations, nor will I blindly chase highs just because of some positive news. I prefer to continuously monitor industry trends and then decide my position based on valuation and timing.
If this round of AI truly becomes an important driving force for the next wave of productivity transformation, then what is really worth seizing is not just a single day's rise but the opportunities brought by long-term industry evolution. Of course, the greater the opportunity, the greater the volatility, so trading still requires good control of rhythm and risk. $SKHY 📊 $LTC 爆仓速览
爆仓规模
· 1小时：$1,155.41
· 4小时：$1.18万
· 12小时：$3.44万
· 24小时：$4.32万
多空分布
周期 多头爆仓 空头爆仓 多头占比
1h $213.75 $941.66 18.5%
4h $591.75 $1.12万 5.0%
12h $1,620.84 $3.28万 4.7%
24h $6,525.97 $3.66万 15.1%
多空解读
各周期空头爆仓碾压多头（24小时空头占84.9%），为持续逼空上涨行情。1-12小时空头占比高达81.5%~95.3%，空头持续遭清算；24小时多头反击力度略有增强，但空头仍占绝对主导。最终胜出方：多头——价格持续强势上行。
时间分布
· 1小时占24小时的 2.67%
· 4小时占24小时的 27.3%
· 12小时占24小时的 79.6%
爆仓极端集中于12小时周期（近八成），说明逼空主升浪在12小时内集中爆发；24小时总量是12小时的1.26倍，后12小时增量有限，逼空行情进入尾声。当前处于逼空行情高位尾声阶段，空头遭重创，但需警惕获利回吐压力。
一句话解读
$LTC 24小时空头爆仓$3.66万占总量84.9%，12小时集中爆发逼空主升浪，多头完胜。
🔥 市场风向标 | 7月24日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：AI的代价、监管的搁浅，以及地缘悬崖边的喘息。
📊 谷歌与特斯拉：AI盛宴的“账单”来了
两份财报揭开了AI叙事的残酷真相。
谷歌超预期但代价沉重：总营收1198亿美元，同比增长24%；谷歌云收入247.7亿美元，同比暴涨82%。然而，资本开支高达449亿美元，自由现金流首次转负至-59亿美元。盘后一度跌近5%。
特斯拉增收不增利：营收282.4亿美元，同比增长26%；但营业利润仅3.98亿美元，同比暴跌57%，运营利润率只剩1.4%。自由现金流两年多来首次转负。盘后跌超4%。
信号：谷歌的AI已在云业务中形成收入闭环；而特斯拉的Robotaxi和Optimus仍停留在“故事”阶段。市场正在惩罚只有概念、没有现金流的AI叙事。
📜 CLARITY法案搁浅：14亿美元的伦理困局
加密行业的监管希望正在消散。参议院共和党虽释放更新文本并加入道德条款，但7名民主党参议员集体否决。参议院多数党领袖图恩明确表示，法案大概率无法在8月7日休会前通过。
根本障碍：特朗普通过加密业务获得的约14亿美元收益成为最大阻力。民主党要求更严格的伦理条款，防止总统在其政府监管下继续从加密行业获利。
Polymarket预测市场显示，年内通过概率已从80%以上骤降至37%。错过8月窗口，拖入秋季选举，2026年通过可能性将大幅下降。
🚢 美军暂停空袭：地缘悬崖边的喘息
当地时间7月25日，特朗普下令美军当天不要对伊朗发动新空袭，结束了此前连续13天的每日打击行动。
暂停空袭前数小时，阿曼代表团已抵达德黑兰，就重启霍尔木兹海峡通航展开谈判，据称已取得进展。布伦特原油此前已突破100美元/桶，若谈判取得突破，油价有望回落。
信号：这是一次战术性暂停——为外交留空间，但美军恢复打击的预案仍在准备中。
💎 总结
三件事勾勒出当下市场的核心矛盾：AI的账单正在到来——谷歌和特斯拉用史上首次负现金流告诉市场，AI烧得比想象中更快；监管的窗口正在关闭——14亿美元的伦理困局让CLARITY法案年内通过希望渺茫；而地缘的喘息能持续多久，取决于阿曼斡旋的成败。#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 $ORDI
ORDIUSDT
Perp
3.826
+7.53%
USDT has climbed +7.90%, currently trading at 3.837 USDT. The bullish structure remains intact, with strong buying interest supporting the move. A break above resistance may trigger fresh momentum.
Entry: 3.80–3.85
TP: 3.95 | 4.08 | 4.20
SL: 3.68超短线交易复盘
很多人觉得合约赚钱靠预判行情、赌方向，我用实打实的账户成绩单说句实在话：超短线想要活下去，从来不是抓住一波大行情暴富，是赚看得懂的小钱，管住看不懂的大亏。
先晒下实盘结果，初始本金1百5出头，一路做到419.73U，整体收益率直接翻倍104.32%。过程不是一路长虹，中途最大回撤接近10%，踩过坑、浮亏过，扛住回调之后再稳步创新高。$BTC $ETH $DOGE Because the weekend volatility is relatively small, I usually only update one article. Now I'll summarize this week and forecast next week's market. This week, I kept watching a rally to surpass the previous high of 72,300, but the big players got worse. Everyone is looking for a fake breakout and won't let you break out. I just tested it and exited, planning to go long to a new high and then make the final mid- to long-term short move. Unexpectedly, I tried to steal a chicken but ended up losing money.
Prices are still in a bottom-of-fluctuation zone with no clear breakout signals, as tensions in the Middle East are heating up and oil prices are soaring, making US inflation even more severe and possibly raising expectations for next week's rate hike. If this outlook continues, short-term rallies won't be significant, and without macro conditions, the likelihood of a direct bull run is very low. That's why I keep expecting a second bottom, or even breaking below previous lows
The daily chart dropped directly near the pre-test high, and the price slipped away early, showing no sense of honor. The daily chart has fallen three times in a row. Although it is still testing near the middle band, the bulls are still in jeopardy. As I said before, multiple tests of support are not support, but a trap for being broken. If strong buying is entering a certain area, it won't break upward after multiple tests. Continuous tests indicate insufficient buying strength, and this test increases the risk of a breakout
A relatively clear recovery in the minor level is not a strong rally, but there are very clear trend reversal signals. The key resistance is near 64,700. If today's rebound fails to hold this level, the price will continue to decline, breaking the key support near 62,200. If it breaks this level, the price will reach resistance at 65,500. However, due to the weekly closing line, I am not optimistic about a breakout to a new high next week. Therefore, I personally lean toward a slight rebound before a decline
In summary, the decline came several hundred points earlier than expected, so we need to adjust our thinking in time. Given the current overall situation, expectations for rate hikes have increased significantly, putting tremendous short-term pressure. Therefore, it is unlikely that a very large rebound will occur in the near future. I am optimistic about a small rebound followed by a continued downward trend. Although the bullish position has not been completely destroyed yet, the seven tests of the mid-band have not shown any real upward momentum, indicating insufficient momentum among the bulls. Therefore, the overall focus is on a continuation of bearish momentum after a rebound. Short-term focus on the gains and losses of resistance at 64,700 #EarningReportObserver: Who can truly understand the real answer cards of Google and Tesla this time? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress We have no person in charge. Now I need to be aware of the following issues. I am only contacting through the official Gate app. Management, please address the issues below. Please read the text carefully and avoid perfunctory rhetoric. Gate's meaning is: the 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD we paid according to the contract were sent to the "scammer's" wallet. Coincidentally, Gate's alpha automatically fetched ALD tokens, so they could not disclose who connected the token integration process. In the end, the scammer's wallet was transferred to Gate Is it true that alphas are airdropping?
Hash is here:
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
When a project pays for it, lists tokens, and is then told, "The person communicating with you is not one of us, and the project is logged into Gate"—is this Gate's response?My boyfriend said this coin was no good, but it ended up rising 10 times
Of course, that was in the past
But today I want to talk about a bigger rotation logic
South Korea's storage giants SK Hynix and Samsung both landed big orders from AI giants
SK Hynix ADR premium is as high as 51%
Do you know what a 51% premium means?
It means overseas funds are willing to pay half more to buy Korean stock mappings
This shows how crazy the demand for AI chips has become
And then guess what
South Korea's pension fund turned to net buying KOSPI for the first time this year
Their heavy holdings are in SK Hynix
When even pension funds move, it shows this is not speculation
It's a real industrial trend
Then ChangXin Technology is going public tomorrow
Off-market valuation is 2.76 trillion
Putting these three things together actually reveals a clear sector rotation logic
AI chip demand spreads from the US to South Korea and then to China
The entire semiconductor industry chain is benefiting
So what does this have to do with crypto? A lot
The AI arms race continuously drives up computing power demand
Computing power demand drives the valuation logic of AI tokens
And South Korean funds have always been an important force in the crypto market
South Korea's pension fund starting to buy stocks
Shows South Korean funds are shifting from conservative to aggressive
Once South Korean retail investors see pension funds buying
They will rush in after them
Then the overflow funds will flow into the crypto market
This path has been verified countless times in the past
So my judgment is
The capital transmission chain from AI semiconductors → South Korean stock market → crypto market has already started
Now position yourself in the AI+Crypto track
The harvest period will come when South Korean funds spill over
Find projects in the AI sector that are actually working
Don't chase pure concepts
Finally, let's talk about today's market hotspots, several directions worth watching
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元
The monthly trading volume of RWA perpetuals keeps rising every month. 470 billion monthly trading volume has already surpassed many CEX perpetual volumes. In this cycle, RWA is the most stable track—not like meme coins relying on sentiment, not like AI relying on narrative, RWA is supported by real financial demand.
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零
The ETH staking sell pressure alarm is lifted. Previously, a large queue of ETH unstaking caused market worries about stETH issues; now the exit queue is zero, indicating the most panic moment has passed. ETH consolidating here is building a bottom.
#三星Galaxy钱包将原生支持稳定币
Samsung's move is huge. Galaxy users can use stablecoins right when they open their phones; USDT and USDC monthly active users may double. For projects building stablecoin application layers, this is the biggest catalyst.
$AI $FET #sectorrotation #AIchips #semiconductorsTwo days cost me three months' salary, and now I just want some peace
But after calming down, I looked into it
It has been found that this week, the intersection between traditional finance and crypto is increasing
Let me start with a piece of data you might not have noticed
RWA perpetual monthly trading volume is $470 billion
470 billion!! ！
This is no small number
What does that mean?
Many second- and third-tier exchanges have perpetual contracts that don't have this volume combined
Then guess what
RWA is actually the most underrated narrative in this cycle
Everyone is chasing memes, AI, and DePin
But the real steady growth is actually RWA
Traditional financial institutions tokenize bonds, funds, and real estate on-chain
Then they trade perpetual contracts on-chain
Once this model works,
The liquidity of the entire financial market will be moved onto the chain
There's one more thing
Samsung Galaxy Wallet will natively support stablecoins
Hundreds of millions of devices worldwide are directly built-in
What does this mean?
This means users don't need to download from an exchange or understand what a mnemonic phrase is
USDC and USDT can be used directly on your phone
This is a qualitative leap for the entire industry's breakout
If Samsung succeeds in this move,
Apple is very likely to follow suit
At that point, the threshold for using encryption will shift from 'a bit difficult' to 'as simple as Alipay'
So my judgment is
RWA and wallet integration into stablecoins
This is the true fundamental narrative of this cycle
Price fluctuations are short-term events
Infrastructure is underway本金三万，最高浮盈二十万，现在又回到五万
这种过山车坐得我腿都软了
回头看这一周其实挺有意思的
BTC从这周初的63900到现在的64356
折腾了五天波动才0.7%
但中间的上下插针不知道爆了多少人
然后你猜怎么着
周末反而是这周最稳的时候
没有美股没有财报没有大消息
BTC就在63800到64500之间来回蹭
每次跌到63800就有人接
拉到64500就有人砸
这个区间的多空博弈相当焦灼
最值得关注的数据是BTC ETF
周五净流出2.25亿美元
这周累计应该也是流出的
但有意思的是ETF在流出BTC却不跌
说明OTC市场的买盘在消化ETF的卖压
这其实是一个很强的信号
如果ETF流出都砸不动价格
那ETF流入的时候呢
还有一个信号
66K的位置压着4.77亿的空单清算强度
一旦突破上去就是一波空头踩空
但下方支撑也很牢
周末的震荡就是在蓄力
所以我的判断是
这周虽然没有大行情
但底部越来越实
BTC在这个位置横越久
突破的时候爆发力就越强
下周重点关注周二周三的美股走势
如果能稳住6.6万就看7万
今天还有几个值得跌了80%我都没割，今天直接涨回来了
但涨回来的不是我买的那个币
是Robinhood Chain生态的PONS
市值直接干到5600万美元创历史新高
我在盯这个币有一段时间了
之前从高点跌了80%
那时候链上数据一片死寂
一天交易量就几万刀
然后你猜怎么着
这周Robinhood Chain突然活过来了
PONS一天之内从底部翻了快两倍
链上活跃地址暴增
这不是偶然
我翻了Robinhood Chain整体生态
发现最近新的开发者项目在往上面部署
这一波拉盘不是纯粹的游资炒作
有基本面的驱动在里面
ROBINHOOD作为美国合规交易所推公链
本身就自带流量
只要有一两个生态项目跑出来了
整个链的估值逻辑就会重塑
PONS作为Robinhood Chain生态里的第一个meme币
如果生态继续扩大它还会涨
但这也是把双刃剑
生态meme币涨得快跌得也快
我之前在CASHCAT上吃过教训
翻了几倍没卖结果跌回去
所以我的判断是
如果你手里有PONS或者类似的Robinhood Chain生态币
现在可以拿一拿
等生态出现更明确的The market is already starting to feel a bit nervous about the Fed's rate meeting next Wednesday.
Crude oil once surged to $100, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike was pushed to 38%. A month ago, everyone was still discussing when to cut rates; now the market is already on guard against rate hikes, and this shift is happening quickly.
My view is that rates are unlikely to change, and statements and press conferences will remain hawkish. Since Warsh took office, he has rarely given the market answers in advance, and oil prices have put inflation back on the table. He has no reason to rush to appease risk assets.
If rates are maintained, tech stocks and BTC may breathe a sigh of relief first, and then still have to wait for press conferences. As long as he mentions the possibility of multiple rate hikes this year, I will lean toward reducing positions during the first wave of rebounds. If rates are raised directly, both the Nasdaq and the crypto world will face a round of rapid sell-offs.
This time, I'm also facing Microsoft and Meta's earnings reports, as well as GDP and PCE data—any of which goes wrong will amplify volatility. I won't go all out in the direction ahead of time. On Wednesday, I'll first watch the rate decision, then see how US Treasury yields move. If yields keep rising, it's hard for risk asset gains to last long.买入价0.003，现在0.3，我数学不好但这好像是100倍
但别误会这不是我买的
是我闺蜜买的她每天在我耳边念叨
不过真正让我在意的是周末公链之间的资金流动
SOL今天涨了1.52%到74.86
ETH涨了1.33%到1880
BTC涨了0.61%到64356
你发现没有
ETH的涨幅比BTC大SOL的涨幅比ETH还大
然后你猜怎么着
这个排序其实就是资金在向高风险高波动的方向迁移的信号
当市场情绪修复的时候
资金会先流入BTC确定方向
然后在BTC站稳之后
溢出的资金会往ETH走
最后才会流到SOL这种高beta的资产上
现在SOL的涨幅最高
说明市场情绪确实在修复
但还有一个更值得看的点
RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元你知道是什么概念吗
这等于传统金融的债券和基金代币化之后
在链上产生的永续合约交易量已经跟一些小国家GDP差不多了
RWA这个赛道已经完全不是概念了
是真金白银在跑
为什么RWA利好ETH
因为绝大多数RWA资产都发行在以太坊上
所以RWA交易量越大ETH的链上活跃度越高
ETH的手续费收入也跟着涨
所以我的判断是
现在这个阶段SOL适合短线SOL涨幅大波动也大
ETH适合中线RWA叙事在给以太坊续命
BTC适合长线拿着等6.6万突破
三条链各有各的逻辑选哪条看你的持仓周期
顺便唠几个热门话题，看看有没有你关注的
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
CLARITY法案一拖再拖确实让人烦。但换个角度想，两党都在推动只是时间表卡住了。8月休会前过不了就等9月，9月过不了就等中期选举后。只要方向对，迟到总比不到好。现在悲观的人越多，落地时的预期差就越大。
#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展
周末最大的好消息。地缘降温意味着避险需求下降，资金从黄金美债回流风险资产。之前伊朗局势紧的时候BTC跌不下去就已经很强了，现在风险偏好回升反而可能是催化剂。
#韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单
SK海力士和三星同时接到AI芯片大单，韩国半导体竞争力再次被验证。加密AI赛道也会被这种新闻反复激活——AI算力需求不是故事是真的在爆发。韩国养老金基金也开始买KOSPI了，这是一个重要信号。
#公链 #RWABTC leads the rally but is highly fragmented among altcoins and is not a sign of a full breakout
Is the current market experiencing a structural imbalance under BTC's single rally, rather than a broad-based rally?
From the perspective of derivatives structure, BTC's funding rate remains in the neutral range of 0.01%-0.02%, with no extreme bullish crowding. The basis remains stable at 5%-8% annualized, and futures premiums have not surged, indicating that leveraged funds have not flowed in on a large scale. ETH's basis is slightly lower than BTC's, and the funding rate is near zero, reflecting increased institutional participation but lukewarm speculative sentiment. The SOL funding rate has been highly volatile, with the basis once exceeding 12%, suggesting local overheating risks for high-beta assets.
- Bullish path: If BTC maintains its current low-speed rise without triggering a leveraged stamp, the basis repair of ETH and SOL may attract arbitrage capital inflows, driving altcoin rotation. The key condition is for the ETH/BTC exchange rate to stabilize and rebound above 0.035; otherwise, funds will continue to concentrate on BTC and a few strong altcoins.
- Bearish risk: If BTC pulls back more than 5%, the current low funding rate means limited long stop-loss positions, but rapid basis narrowing could trigger chain liquidations. Among altcoins, weaker coins like $BEAT and $EDGE have seen significant liquidity shrinkage, and insufficient depth will amplify the decline. If retail sentiment indicators for $DOGE and $ZEC weaken, it could signal a fading risk appetite.
- Cross-market transmission logic: As a liquidity anchor, if BTC continues to accumulate, existing ETH and SOL funds will be withdrawn, putting overall pressure on altcoins. However, AI narratives $TAO, $WLD, and DeFi leaders $HYPE remain independent, indicating that funds are concentrating in specific sectors rather than retreating entirely. $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, and other small-cap coins require caution due to high turnover rates, as their basis fluctuations may hide squeeze risks.
Conclusion: The market is entering a selective phase dominated by BTC; positions should focus on capital flows rather than index fluctuations.
Risk: Sudden widening of the basis or a negative BTC funding rate could trigger a structural reversal.
$BTC $ETH $DOGEEntered for 100 dollars, now it's 10,000 dollars—I'm completely stunned
But I'm not talking about price increases
I meant that today there was a signal on the chain that I've been watching for half a year
Did you know Ethereum validators are leaving the queue?
Previously, ETH staking had to wait several months in line to exit it
But today, when I looked at it,
The exit queue has reset to zero
reset to zero!!
What does this mean?
All the validators who had queued up and wanted to run away had already left
Now, no one wants to sell anymore
Then guess what
Today, ETH has risen from 1851 all the way to 1889
Up 1.33%
Not violent, but in this position, it says a lot
I checked the on-chain data
AAVE also rose 2. 42%
The DeFi sector is showing signs of recovery
Previously, the ETH staking release caused AAVE's Ethereum supply to plummet
The market is worried about stETH having issues
But now, leaving the queue to zero means the most panicked times have passed
Some stakers have started to re-enter the market
There's another interesting detail
ETH's rebound volume was not large
This shows that it's not retail investors pulling the market but smart money quietly building positions
Big money won't instantly boost volume
That's just helping retail investors carry the sedan chair
They like to eat slowly during the sideways period
So my judgment is
ETH may still wear down in the short term
But the 1800 base is becoming more solid
Validator exit and zeroing is a clear bottom signal
If you don't get in the car now, it will be too late once the train actually starts
I glanced at today's news page and had a few points I wanted to mention
#韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单
SK Hynix's ADR premium once soared to 51%, indicating that overseas funds were frantically buying Korean AI chip stocks. The AI arms race is accelerating; this wave is not only affecting the semiconductor market but also has a mapping effect on the crypto AI sector. The AI + Crypto narrative may be regaining momentum.
#黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, it has received endorsement from industry collectives
Old Huang's move was quite clever. Open-source AI means expanding the ecosystem. For the crypto community, open-source models mean that on-chain AI agents can access top-tier AI capabilities for free or at low cost, accelerating the implementation of DeFi+AI. Projects like Virtuals are worth following.
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元
470 billion dollars! RWA is no longer just a concept—it's real money being put into the market. Traditional financial institutions tokenize bonds and funds on-chain, causing trading volumes for perpetual contracts to soar. This is a long-term positive for ETH and the entire DeFi ecosystem.
#以太坊 #链上数据 #DeFiThree days ago, my account still had 20,000 left, Today I saw it had increased to 80,000
Family, who understands this feeling?
When it crashed like a dog last week, I was still wondering when this lousy market would end
But it quietly bounced back over the weekend
BTC jumped directly from 63,700 to 64,400
Although that's less than a 1% increase
But you really don't say it, you really don't say it
It's already impressive that they can pull it back on this lifeless weekend
Then guess what
Market sentiment is actually seriously underestimated
Among BlockBeats' 12 indicators, there are 5 buy signals and 0 sell signals
The remaining 6 hold on
In other words, although the market is hesitant, no one wants to leave
Short sellers are cautious, while long sellers dare not increase their positions aggressively
This position is actually quite subtle
On top of $66,000 is a short position liquidation wall of 477 million
Once they break through, the bears will be caught off guard
But the question is, who will be the one to light this fire?
ETFs closed on weekends, and data could only be viewed on Monday
Friday's -225 million outflow was indeed unattractive
However, BTC has not fallen
This is the biggest trump card
If ETFs flow out, they won't dump their prices
That means spot buying is genuinely holding on
So my judgment is
This position is likely to rise horizontally
With just 66,000 yuan, breaking through the short market and missing out is a sudden takeoff
But don't chase after the high
It's not too late to act after confirming a breakout with increased volume
Returning to the hot topics outside the market, today's events are quite interesting
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
The big tech earnings season is indeed a barometer. Although Google Cloud's growth was good, advertising revenue was somewhat weak, and Tesla's deliveries also fell short of expectations. If tech stocks don't perform well before the US stock market opens, BTC will find it hard to rise on its own. But I feel the market has almost fully priced in the negative news.
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
The CLARITY Act has been a series of twists and turns. It was originally thought that the event would be implemented before the August recess, but it was postponed again. In the short term, this is negative, but in the long run, both parties are pushing forward—it's only a matter of time. A drop at this level actually presents a buying opportunity.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
This is the biggest good news this week. Geopolitical cooling is a tangible positive for risk assets. Previously, during the tense Iran situation, BTC always fell first and then rose. If there really is a ceasefire this time, risk aversion will decline and funds will flow back into the crypto world.
#盘面分析 #清算 #周末行情📊 $TRX 爆仓速览
爆仓规模
· 1小时：$659.74
· 4小时：$1,306.54
· 12小时：$1,513.68
· 24小时：$3.94万
多空分布
周期 多头爆仓 空头爆仓 多头占比
1h $659.74 $0 100%
4h $659.74 $646.80 50.5%
12h $797.13 $716.56 52.7%
24h $1.42万 $2.52万 36.0%
多空解读
前12小时多头爆仓略占主导（多头占比50.5%~100%），价格短时震荡下跌；但24小时周期空头爆仓$2.52万强势反超（占64.0%），方向在12-24小时间发生逆转，逼空行情全面爆发。最终胜出方：多头——呈现“前段小幅震荡→尾盘逼空爆发”格局。
时间分布
· 1小时占24小时的 1.67%
· 4小时占24小时的 3.32%
· 12小时占24小时的 3.84%
爆仓分布极度后置：前12小时合计仅占3.84%，而24小时总量是12小时的26.0倍，说明逼空行情在12-24小时间猛烈爆发（后12小时爆仓约$3.79万，占全天的96.2%）。当前处于逼空行情爆发阶段，空头尾盘遭集中清算，但总规模仍偏小，需关注持续性。
一句话解读
$TRX 24小时空头爆仓$2.52万占总量64%，前段小幅震荡后尾盘逼空全面爆发，多头完胜。
🔥 市场风向标 | 7月24日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：AI的代价、监管的搁浅，以及地缘悬崖边的喘息。
📊 谷歌与特斯拉：AI盛宴的“账单”来了
两份财报揭开了AI叙事的残酷真相。
谷歌超预期但代价沉重：总营收1198亿美元，同比增长24%；谷歌云收入247.7亿美元，同比暴涨82%。然而，资本开支高达449亿美元，自由现金流首次转负至-59亿美元。盘后一度跌近5%。
特斯拉增收不增利：营收282.4亿美元，同比增长26%；但营业利润仅3.98亿美元，同比暴跌57%，运营利润率只剩1.4%。自由现金流两年多来首次转负。盘后跌超4%。
信号：谷歌的AI已在云业务中形成收入闭环；而特斯拉的Robotaxi和Optimus仍停留在“故事”阶段。市场正在惩罚只有概念、没有现金流的AI叙事。
📜 CLARITY法案搁浅：14亿美元的伦理困局
加密行业的监管希望正在消散。参议院共和党虽释放更新文本并加入道德条款，但7名民主党参议员集体否决。参议院多数党领袖图恩明确表示，法案大概率无法在8月7日休会前通过。
根本障碍：特朗普通过加密业务获得的约14亿美元收益成为最大阻力。民主党要求更严格的伦理条款，防止总统在其政府监管下继续从加密行业获利。
Polymarket预测市场显示，年内通过概率已从80%以上骤降至37%。错过8月窗口，拖入秋季选举，2026年通过可能性将大幅下降。
🚢 美军暂停空袭：地缘悬崖边的喘息
当地时间7月25日，特朗普下令美军当天不要对伊朗发动新空袭，结束了此前连续13天的每日打击行动。
暂停空袭前数小时，阿曼代表团已抵达德黑兰，就重启霍尔木兹海峡通航展开谈判，据称已取得进展。布伦特原油此前已突破100美元/桶，若谈判取得突破，油价有望回落。
信号：这是一次战术性暂停——为外交留空间，但美军恢复打击的预案仍在准备中。
💎 总结
三件事勾勒出当下市场的核心矛盾：AI的账单正在到来——谷歌和特斯拉用史上首次负现金流告诉市场，AI烧得比想象中更快；监管的窗口正在关闭——14亿美元的伦理困局让CLARITY法案年内通过希望渺茫；而地缘的喘息能持续多久，取决于阿曼斡旋的成败。#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 On the US East Coast on July 26, before the market opened, SanDisk continued to fluctuate upward, with a pre-market low of $1414 and a high of $1467, a maximum gain of 4.1%, and a pre-market price of $1455; On the previous trading day (7.24), it closed down 10.79% at $1,436.56. The pre-market market was a bottom-fishing recovery after overselling, leading the rise in the storage semiconductor sector, with Micron, Western Digital, and SK Hynix all strengthening pre-market in parallel. - Pre-market order volume continues to rise, with concentrated low limit buy orders rushing in, and short stop-loss orders closing in concentrated, creating a short-term squeeze market; - Institutions placed overnight orders mainly for buying at low prices, with several long-term funds placing large custody orders in the $1420–1450 range, absorbing panic shares from the sharp drop on July 24; - On the options capital side, pre-market trading volume for call options surged, with capital betting on August earnings reporting exceeding expectations. US stocks like the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index futures both rebounded before the market closed, easing panic in tech stocks; Capital has diverted from high-level AI application stocks to the deeply corrected storage hardware sector, with the AI computing power storage industry chain forming a resonant recovery in the sector. TrendForce and Morgan Stanley simultaneously updated their late July industry reports, raising their forecasts for NAND flash memory price increases in the third quarter, expecting NAND contract prices to rise 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter, with even greater gains for AI server-specific eSSDs. Global original factory capacity continues to tilt toward high-margin HBM, with general-purpose NAND supply shrinking, industry inventories only lasting 2–4 weeks, far below the 8–12 week safety stock line; Amazon, Microsoft, GoogleOn my way home from work in the afternoon, I kept checking the financial calendar, feeling that the market performance over the next four days probably won't be too boring. I didn't open many new positions today, mainly because all the important events in the past few days were packed together. Before the direction was released, keeping a lighter position actually helped me sleep soundly.
Looking at the financial reports released a few days ago, a clear phenomenon is that the market has recently become increasingly skeptical about financial reports. Many companies have actually weakened after the news came out, giving a bit of a "whoever releases falls" vibe. Whether these tech giants can reverse this sentiment remains to be seen.
In the coming days, what will truly impact the market is not just the earnings report, but also a series of macroeconomic data.
Federal Reserve policy meetings, Microsoft and Meta earnings, GDP, PCE inflation data, as well as earnings from Amazon and Apple, will all be released one after another, meaning both macro and fundamentals are being tested by the market.
In fact, Google, Tesla, and Nvidia have already handed over their papers ahead of schedule.
Google's free cash flow has turned negative, and Tesla's profits have nearly halved. As for Nvidia, although it still has a billion-yuan floating profit on paper and still looks strong, its high valuation and high customer concentration have persisted, which have been the risk points I've been paying close attention to recently. When the market is good, these issues are easily overlooked, but once the market starts to reprice, they may regain focus.
I personally pay more attention to Wednesdays.
At present, the market generally expects interest rates to remain unchanged, so what truly affects sentiment is the signal released by Powell's speech. Personally, I believe he will remain cautious or even slightly hawkish in his wording, but the room for further tightening liquidity may be limited.
The reason is simple: global tech companies are continuously ramping up AI investments. If liquidity suddenly tightens significantly, the entire computing power supply chain will be under pressure, which may not be the outcome the market wants to see.
This time, I will focus on Microsoft's Azure business growth rate.
If it falls below 38%, I will consider reducing some related positions, because the market now has very high expectations for AI business growth. If it falls short of expectations, valuation adjustments may occur.
Meta is similar.
The stock price has not been strong over the past half year. If Zuckerberg continues to emphasize large-scale AI capital spending in the future without providing a clearer path to realize profits, I think market sentiment may remain cautious, and funds may not be willing to chase higher prices.
On Thursday, the pressure mainly came from macro data.
GDP and PCE will be released before the market opens. Currently, the market's biggest concern remains the risk of stagflation—economic growth is slowing, but inflation remains elevated. If inflation continues to stay near **2.5%**, high-valuation technology sectors may continue to face valuation pressure.
This time, Amazon is mainly focusing on AWS.
Currently, the market estimates AWS's growth rate is about 33%. If it reaches or even surpasses this level, it will still provide some support for the computing power and storage industry chains of Nvidia, SK Hynix, and Micron; If the price falls significantly short of expectations, the overall sentiment of the AI industry chain could be affected.
Apple, on the other hand, isn't that complicated. I don't care much about how much future plans management discusses; I'd rather look at the sales data in the Chinese market, because real sales data is more valuable than stories.
My biggest impression recently is that the market is indeed different from the past two years.
Previously, as long as the AI story was big enough, capital was willing to pay in advance; Nowadays, people are increasingly focused on cash flow, profitability, and the speed of realization. For companies that keep investing but still don't see commercial returns, or whose clients are too concentrated, I still remain cautious at this stage—I'd rather earn less than bear too much volatility just to gamble on expectations.
Back to today's crypto scene.
BTC is still oscillating between 65,200 and 65,400, with 65,700 above still serving as a rebound after a breakout, while 66,200–66,500 has gradually formed a new resistance zone.
ETH has gradually rebounded from around 1850 to around 1880. Although the uptrend line still provides some support, the rebound is clearly weak, and bulls have not yet shown strong sustained offensive potential.
Additionally, I noticed a detail: although ETF funds occasionally see net inflows, the overall price hasn't formed an effective follow-up trend, indicating that the current market is more like a game of internal competition among existing funds rather than new incremental funds continuously entering the market. In this situation, I still prioritize position control, waiting for all key data to materialize before deciding whether to increase the position.
#财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
$ETH $BTC Just went through this week's reports
Google Cloud annual growth 82%
Tesla revenue annual growth 26%
Intel data center and AI revenue annual growth 59%
Looking at just these numbers
I'd roughly say this week's earnings reports aren't bad
But after the three companies announced their earnings
The next day they fell 7.1%, 14.5%, and 7.9% respectively
That's a bit awkward
Google's quarterly CapEx is nearly $45 billion
Tesla's free cash flow turned negative $1.09 billion
Intel is also preparing to keep investing in 14A
The market isn't doubting AI usage
It's more like they don't want to just hear companies say demand is great
You say demand is great, so where's the money earned?
Google Cloud is indeed making more profit
But the whole company's cash flow is still negative due to CapEx
As for Tesla, deliveries and revenue have returned
But the money earned from cars has to be used to support Robotaxi and Optimus
Intel's core business is much better than the net loss of $11 billion on paper
But wafer foundry is still losing money
Oil prices have climbed above $100 these days
The 10-year bond yield is also close to 4.7%
Money has become more expensive
Wall Street naturally has less patience to wait for you to slowly break even
No wonder after writing these three earnings reports this week
I'm increasingly hesitant to just look at revenue 最近的SHIB跟磕了药一样，沉寂一段时间后，突然出现快速上涨，价格突破长期震荡区间，成交量也明显放大。 很多人第一反应都是： “SHIB是不是有什么重大利好？” 但从目前市场信息来看，这次上涨并不是某一个消息直接推动，而是多个因素同时出现，资金和情绪共同推动了这一轮行情。 首先比较值得关注的是链上资金变化。 根据CryptoQuant Exchange Netflow数据显示，近期SHIB多次出现交易所净流出，单日净流出规模达到数十亿甚至上百亿SHIB。 简单理解，就是部分持有者正在把SHIB从交易所转移到个人钱包。 对于市场来说，这意味着短期交易所里的可交易筹码减少，卖出压力可能下降。 当然，提币并不代表一定会上涨，但在加密市场中，交易所流入流出数据一直是观察资金行为的重要指标。 当市场看到大量SHIB离开交易所，也会开始关注： 是不是有大资金正在提前布局？ 除了资金流向变化，烧币数据也重新成为市场讨论的话题。 近期Shibburn数据显示，SHIB部分时间段的销毁数量出现明显增加，单日销毁量甚至出现大幅增长。 虽然目前烧币规模还不足以改变整个SHIB供应量，但对于SHIB社区来说，$DEXE didn't crash randomly — the project's own wallets sent $6.2M to Binance.
625,000 DEXE moved from team/treasury wallets to exchange right before the dump. That's insiders positioning, not panic.
Entry: 4.20–4.40
TP1: 3.70 | TP2: 3.30 | TP3: 2.80
SL: 4.60
Thin float, most supply locked in DAO treasury — that's why moves swing violently.
Team hasn't explained the transfers. Until they do, trust stays broken.
Betting the distrust bleeds this lower.
$DEXE [HYPE continues to buy back and burn shares, fundamentals remain bullish, still depends on fee continuation]
HYPE's token supply logic is biased, with the core being whether platform revenue can be continuously converted into burning. Hyperliquid generated approximately $1.4 million in fees and burned 20,640 HYPE, valued at approximately $1.2 million, in the past 24 hours; A total of 47.27 million tokens have been burned, accounting for 4.73% of the maximum supply of 1 billion tokens.
Fee-driven buyback burns can provide quantifiable supply contraction when trading is active, but it does not guarantee a one-sided price increase and is still influenced by market transaction volume and risk appetite. If platform fees remain or grow and the burn mechanism is continuously implemented, fundamental support will be strengthened; If transaction heat drops and fees fall, the marginal push of supply narratives will weaken.
The above is just a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market changes rapidly, and trading profits and losses are borne by the buyer.【TSLA情绪受噪音扰动，先看舆论降温】
TSLA 这类马斯克核心资产，短线更容易被人物争议牵动情绪，而不是马上获得增量共识。《经济学人》主编在专访中正面批评马斯克脱离实际、放大欧洲恐慌与极右翼言论，现场火药味很重。
马斯克则强势回击，整场讨论进一步放大了其公众形象的两极化特征。对市场来说，这类舆论冲突通常会先提升分歧，而非降低不确定性。
若后续焦点重新回到产品与执行，TSLA 情绪才更有机会企稳。以上仅为个人观点分享，不构成任何投资建议。市场瞬息万变，交易盈亏自负。The scale of tokens hoarded by long-term Bitcoin holders has reached a six-year high. On-chain data clearly shows that a large amount of BTC continues to flow from exchanges to private key wallets, with long-term holders continuously accumulating shares.
After enduring multiple bull and bear cycles, these long-term investors have not sold off their holdings in short-term market fluctuations; instead, they have continued to accumulate spot positions during market corrections. Historically, when long-term holders' holding sentiment reaches a temporary peak, it often means that selling pressure is gradually clearing and the bottom range is slowly forming. However, this does not mean the short-term rally will start immediately; bottoming and oscillation will remain the norm.
$BTC 📊 $AVAX Quick Overview of Liquidation
Scale of liquidations
· 1 hour: $6.68
· 4 hours: $27,700
· 12 hours: $155,600
· 24 hours: $672,600
Mostly and bearish distribution
Cycle: Bull liquidation, short liquidation, long position
1h $6.68 $0 100%
4h $27,100 $597.21 97.8%
12h $38,800 $116,800 24.9%
24h $54,400 $618,200 8.1%
Duokong interpretation
In the first 4 hours, long liquidations dominated (long positions accounted for 97.8%~100%), but the scale was very small, indicating a short-term opening disturbance; 12-hour short blow-ups at $116,800 suddenly overtook (75.1%), triggering a short squeeze rally; In 24 hours, short liquidations at $618,200 further crushed the bulls (accounting for 91.9%), with a full-scale and intense escalation of short squeezes. Ultimate winner: Bulls—showing a pattern of "short-term long selling→ persistent extreme short squeezing," with bears facing devastating liquidation.
Time distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.001% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 4.12% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 23.13% of 24 hours
Liquidation distribution is extremely late: the first 12 hours accounted for only 23.13%, while the total 24-hour volume is 4.32 times that of the 12-hour period, indicating that the short squeeze market escalated sharply between the 12-24 hours (about $517,000 in the last 12 hours, or 76.9% of the whole day). Currently, the market is at the peak of a short squeeze, with bears suffering heavy losses, but after extreme gains, caution is needed to be aware of the risk of sharp pullbacks.
A one-sentence explanation
$AVAX 24-hour short liquidations amounted to $618,200, accounting for 91.9% of the total. The short squeeze surged sharply in the latter half, with the bulls winning decisively.
🔥 Market Barometer | July 24th
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the cost of AI, regulatory stalls, and the breathing on the edge of the geopolitical cliff.
📊 Google and Tesla: The "bill" for the AI feast has arrived
Two financial reports have revealed the harsh truth behind AI narratives.
Google beats expectations but comes at a heavy cost: total revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year; Google Cloud revenue was $24.77 billion, an 82% year-on-year increase. However, capital expenditures reached $44.9 billion, and free cash flow turned negative for the first time to -$5.9 billion. After hours, it once fell nearly 5%.
Tesla's revenue growth without profit growth: revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-on-year; However, operating profit was only $398 million, a year-on-year plunge of 57%, with an operating margin of just 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over two years. It fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.
Signal: Google's AI has formed a closed revenue loop in its cloud business; Meanwhile, Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus remain at the "story" stage. The market is punishing AI narratives that are concept-heavy but lack cash flow.
📜 CLARITY Act Stalled: A $1.4 Billion Ethical Dilemma
Regulatory hopes for the crypto industry are fading. Although Senate Republicans released updated text and added a morality clause, seven Democratic senators collectively vetoed it. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon made it clear that the bill is unlikely to pass before the August 7 recess.
Fundamental obstacle: The roughly $1.4 billion gains Trump gained from crypto business became the biggest obstacle. The Democrats are demanding stricter ethical clauses to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry under government oversight.
Polymarket forecasts show that the probability of passing within the year has plummeted from over 80% to 37%. Missing the August window and dragging into the autumn elections will greatly reduce the chances of passing in 2026.
🚢 U.S. military pauses airstrikes: a breather on the edge of a geopolitical cliff
On July 25 local time, Trump ordered the U.S. military not to launch new airstrikes on Iran that day, ending a 13-day continuous daily strike campaign.
A few hours before the airstrike pause, the Omani delegation had already arrived in Tehran to begin negotiations to resume navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly making progress. Brent crude had previously surpassed $100 per barrel, and if negotiations break through, oil prices are expected to retreat.
Signal: This is a tactical pause—to leave room for diplomacy, but the U.S. military is still preparing contingency plans for resuming strikes.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core contradictions in the current market: The bill for AI is approaching—Google and Tesla are telling the market that, for the first time ever, negative cash flow is heating up faster than expected; The regulatory window is closing—the $1.4 billion ethical dilemma makes it hard for the CLARITY Act to pass within the year; How long the pause in the geography lasts depends on the success or failure of Oman's mediation. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time?
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress 【CXMT资金费率走平，多空分歧加大】
长鑫相关情绪更像拉锯，不像一致性单边。trade.xyz 上该股合约报 6.3588 美元，资金费率年化 6.2%，已经趋于中性。
最大持仓是价值 1468 万美元的 1 倍空单，但第二、第三大地址分别持有 696 万和 504 万美元多单，其中第二大地址今天仍在继续加仓。
若资金费率继续平稳、但多头追单减弱，这种分歧更容易演变成高位震荡。以上仅为个人观点分享，不构成任何投资建议。市场瞬息万变，交易盈亏自负。South Korean storage giant $SAMSUNG reported a net profit of 84 trillion KRW in the second quarter, directly shattering previous pessimistic expectations of a cycle peak.
After six consecutive months of net selling, pension funds have shifted to net purchases in the Korean chip sector this month, indicating institutional funds are re-examining the logic of core asset allocation.
The high profit margins of memory chips and the global supply-demand gap in computing power infrastructure form the core driving force behind the current semiconductor industry supercycle.
The current speed of earnings realization and the return path of institutional funds together validate the hedging effect of AI storage demand against downward pressure from macro fluctuations.
If memory chip profit margins can remain at current high levels and downstream server demand continues to expand, the valuation restructuring logic for the storage sector will deepen further.
If global macroeconomic volatility intensifies and downstream cloud storage demand slows, the previously accumulated overcapacity risk could trigger downward price pressure again.
Changes in the global interest rate environment and tightening dollar liquidity are core variables in assessing whether valuations in such high-capital-spending industries can be sustained.
Next week, focus will be on changes in the guidance of large tech companies on storage procurement budgets in their earnings, which will directly determine the duration of the storage supercycle.
#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Positive news or premature failure? #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过2021 was the peak of the crypto spot market. The DeFi boom combined with global liquidity looseness made it difficult to replicate this trend in the future. Since then, the spot market has continued to decline. On one hand, the overall market cooled, and on the other, the permissionless DeFi token issuance model directly impacted the listing fees and transaction fee income of small and medium-sized exchanges; Subsequently, the Bitcoin $BTC ETF diverted trading volume from mainstream coins, even affecting leading platforms.
Relying solely on spot fees is no longer enough to support exchange operations. If a platform fails to build a stable cash flow platform like perpetual contracts after 2021, it will ultimately be eliminated by the market. The only difference is when to exit, whether it will shut down gracefully or to make a malicious escape.After finishing work in the afternoon, I slacked a quick look at the market. I originally thought that after Jensen Huang posted that message, NVIDIA would respond somewhat, but when I opened the market, NVDA was still fluctuating around 207, showing little change compared to last week.
The most discussed topic these past two days has been Jensen Huang's tweet.
He has joined forces with 25 companies to publicly support open-source AI models, including giants like Microsoft, Meta, and IBM. Even Elon Musk liked it in the comments. Logically, this kind of news should be considered positive, but the market performance was rather flat, and the stock price did not change significantly because of this incident.
Later, I thought about it and realized that maybe the problem isn't the news itself, but rather that the market's focus has shifted.
From a business logic perspective, open source may not necessarily be a bad thing for NVIDIA. The more open the model is, the more companies participate in development and deployment, and the faster AI applications may roll out. Ultimately, who trains or deploys the model, computing power is essential. In other words, a free model does not necessarily mean free business; on the contrary, it may bring more chip demand.
So I think Jensen Huang's support for open source this time is less about expressing a stance and more about preemptively planning the development direction of the entire AI ecosystem.
This change is especially noticeable after the Kimi K3 became open-sourced.
Since the release of this model, it has been highly discussed in the industry—not just because it's open source, but because its performance is now close to the top-tier closed-source models. At the same time, the API price is less than a third, and all model weights are made public. This combination will have a certain impact on the competitive landscape of the entire AI industry, which explains why many companies in Silicon Valley are beginning to rethink their strategies.
So I don't think the group chat saying "NVIDIA is getting anxious" is the whole answer. My understanding leans more toward Huang being the advocate for the open-source ecosystem, while also maintaining the long-term logic of future computing power demand. As for why the market didn't buy it, it's simple: right now, funds are more focused on realizing profits than on vision. What truly changes stock price expectations is the financial report data that follows.
Anyway, I don't plan to chase or bearish just because of one piece of news. News can affect sentiment, but ultimately, it comes down to performance and capital flow. Let's keep observing for now, and wait for the financial report before deciding on our next moves.
Sometimes that's just how the market is: those who move the fastest may not always win, but those who stay still may miss out on real change. Trades should respect the rhythm and not be led away by one or two pieces of news.
#黄仁勋首推开源AI公开信, it has received endorsement from industry collectives
$NVDA $IBM $SHIB 昨天到今天突然拉升40%，很多人到处在找是什么原因涨，连 $LPT 这种老腊肉都拉盘了，换个角度看，这更像一次周末做市商市场试探，试探场内资金还活不活跃，有没有人跟，这个事情刚好也发生在周末大饼休息期间，
周末这个时间里，整体流动性下降，小部分资金就能推动价格明显变化，资金不会无缘无故全面进攻，通常会先点火一个最有辨识度的标的，看市场有没有跟随盘。所以有时候周末拉升既可能是资金试探，也可能是利用低流动性制造市场关注，
但如果只是几个老币脉冲一下，没有持续成交量，那更多还是存量资金博弈，小心骗炮追高$SHIB 2018年国内加密交易所遍地开花，上百家平台靠收取上币费、自研代币、赚取用户亏损生存。到2026年行业迎来关停潮，除了恶意跑路的平台，核心原因是单纯撮合交易利润微薄，用户认知不断提升，叠加监管收紧，头部交易所竞争白热化，纷纷比拼服务能力，中小平台更是难以存活。
币圈想要迎来新一轮发展，必须摒弃过去投机炒作的旧模式，把美股、债券这类传统资产低成本上链，打造合规高效的Web3产品，这是普通小交易所根本做不到的。
存活下来的平台不能只做投机赌场，关键在于打通传统金融与Web3的结合，做出差异化落地应用，重新吸引华尔街资本入局，才是长久发展的核心。$CORE Complete trend forecast for August-December 2026 (current price 0.01810, mainly pessimistic benchmark)
Core premise: the team and treasury will linearly unlock 700 million zero-cost tokens monthly, quantitative programs will release tiered pressure around the clock, and the staking mechanism will only lock retail investors' circulation shares. The Fed's two rounds of rate cuts in September and December will only bring a pulse rebound, unable to reverse the long-term downward trend.
1. Monthly Range, Market Characteristics, Key Resistance/Support Points
August: Weak market bottoming out, fluctuating downward
- Operating interval: 0.016 ~ 0.020
- Market logic: Meme short-term rally retreats, funds returning to BTC main line and altcoins collectively losing blood; Tens of millions of team chips are unlocked on time every month, with fixed quantitative sell orders at fixed amounts for continuous selling; Relying solely on Hong Kong institutional connections and positive PR for node expansion, there was a slight rebound within 1-2 hours, but after reaching the 0.020 resistance level, project teams concentrated shipments and quickly retreated.
- Key levels: resistance at 0.020, 0.0228; lifeline support at 0.016, effectively breaking below opens a new downward channel.
September: Interest rate cut expectations pulse rebounded, second dip after realization (the only window to reduce positions in the second half of the year)
- Operating interval: 0.013 ~ 0.0215
- Market logic: The Federal Reserve's first round of rate cuts has taken effect, liquidity is loose across the market, and short-term speculative funds are bottom-fishing, driving the strongest rebound of the year; The extreme high is unlikely to hold above 0.0215. After the positive news is realized, a "sell the fact" rally begins, with treasury collateral chips simultaneously sold off in batches; At the end of the month, funds took profits and exited, pushing back to the 0.013 low.
- Key reminder: This rebound is the best time for deeply trapped holders to reduce positions in batches; do not add positions to bottom-fish.
October: Bearish decline accelerates, support is gradually breaking down
- Operating interval: 0.0105 ~ 0.0145
- Market logic: The rate cut rally is fully digested, and market risk appetite is declining; BTCFi tracks like Stacks and Babylon continue to divert institutional funds, while CORE's SatPay and buyback narratives have not generated substantial revenue, making the market immune to positive factors; Liquidity in the market continues to shrink, with frequent spike rallies, each support level quickly breached, and there is almost no sustained rebound.
November: Narrow low-level bearish consolidation, volatility narrowing
- Operating interval: 0.009 ~ 0.0125
- Market logic: Year-end institutional funds are reducing high-risk VC counterfeit holdings for safe-haven purposes; The team unlocked shares entered the mid-release phase, with stable selling pressure; Dual pledges continue to absorb retail investors' chips and lock up positions, leaving only project teams selling in the secondary market; Throughout the day, only fake accounts were used to fake trading volume, causing a slow, gloomy decline throughout the day.
December: Year-end liquidity dries up, and a yearly low is highly likely
- Operating interval: 0.0078 ~ 0.011
- Market logic: The Fed's second round of rate cuts was implemented, but at year-end, funds from exchanges and asset management settlements exited, resulting in a gap in incremental funds; Throughout the year, narrative overdraws have led to a collective consensus on mine-hedging among off-exchange funds; Project teams are accelerating the clearance of small remaining shares, making it highly likely to see deep insertion at 0.0078, with the yearly lowest price point concentrated in mid to late December.
2. Three scenario probability simulations
1. Baseline scenario (70% probability, main market)
Gradually fluctuating and falling in a shadowy direction, the market recovery will only bring a short-term pulse lasting 1-3 days; a rebound will be a selling window; Year-end prices have nearly halved compared to now, with the core driver being continuous unlocking of selling pressure + active pressure pressure from quantitative programs.
2. Optimistic scenario (20% probability)
BTC holds above $80,000, SatPay implements generate real transaction fees and large buybacks that can be traced on-chain, temporarily surging above 0.023 but unable to hold steadily, quickly falling within three days. There is no trend reversal, only short-term betting opportunities.
3. Extreme Pessimism Scenario (10% Probability)
Global crypto regulators cracked down on market manipulation, exchanges checked CORE quantitative inverted accounts, project selling was blocked, triggering collective panic and stampede, prices directly falling below 0.007, liquidity shrinking sharply, and widening bid-ask spreads.
3. The four core underlying logics that suppressed the token price throughout
1. Perpetual selling pressure cannot be absorbed
Team shares are linearly unlocked over 36 months, with tens of millions of zero-cost tokens steadily flowing out each month in the second half of the year. Nearly 200 million yuan in treasury collateral tokens await realization. Any rebound will become a concentrated window for project teams to sell off, and market buying will never keep pace with new chip supply.
2. Quantitative programs actively lock in all upside potential
Standardized sell orders of equal value on the board are placed all day without cancellation following market trends; Whenever active buying occurs to push prices up, quantitative analysts immediately layer and allocate chips to suppress prices. Even when Meme stocks rally across the board, CORE continues to weaken independently, with no natural upward momentum.
3. The staking mechanism negatively affects retail investors
Nodes and dual staking only lock in the circulating tokens held by retail investors, reducing stop-loss selling pressure. The market is completely imbalanced, and only project teams sell on the market; The daily CORE rewards distributed through staking continue to inflate, further diluting the token price—the more staked you are, the faster your total assets shrink.
4. Competition in the track diverts funds, all the benefits are just a dream
Genuine BTCFi targets continuously capture institutional funds, CORE has no proprietary technology implementation, and on-chain TVL and trading volume are inflated by inverted inversion; The official promise of revenue buybacks is entirely off-chain and has large cash flow, but the positive news is only used to stabilize trapped shares and cannot generate sustained incremental buying.
4. Practical response plans by group
1. Deeply Trapped Positions: The September rate cut pulse rebounded to the 0.020-0.021 range to reduce positions in batches. During the decline, absolutely no additional positions are allowed to dilute costs; pledged positions wait for the unlocking cycle to end; redeem and exit immediately during the rebound. Do not passively endure long-term hedging and shrinkage.
2. Short positions and wait-and-see traders: Bottom-fishing is strictly prohibited throughout the second half of the year, with no clear bottom signal. The long selling pressure cycle has not seen a clear point, and the more bottom-fishing, the deeper the trap gets.
3. Short-term traders: Only gamble on the short-term rebound after September rate cuts, setting strict stop-losses; for other months, only short and not long. The margin for error in short-term long positions during a bearish decline is extremely low.
⚠️ Risk warning: Speculative virtual currency trading is considered illegal financial activity in China. The above is based solely on objective reasoning based on token economics and macro market conditions and does not constitute any investment or trading advice.Real-time market overview 🖥️
As of July 26, 2026, Zcash ($ZEC) is in a critical window of decisive bullish and bearish battles. Affected by the approaching Ironwood upgrade (expected to activate on July 28), ZEC has recently experienced significant volatility—after the testnet deployment on July 2, it rebounded 37% to break through $500, but the upward trend quickly reversed, dropping about 13.6% over the past week and another 3.1% in 24 hours, and has now fallen back below the $500 mark. The current price fluctuates between $487 and $502, with over $2 million in 24-hour long liquidations.
Key support and resistance levels 📊
Resistance level above:
$540 - $560 (recent strong resistance zone, multiple tests before Ironwood's upgrade failed)
$600 (mid-term key psychological threshold)
$644 - $690 (Potential upside target after breaking 560)
Support levels below:
$490 - $500 (core psychological level, currently being tested; if it falls, it will open up downside potential)
$470 (50-day SMA and rounded top pattern support)
$436 - $438 (Key mid-term support zone)
$360 - $382 (200-day EMA and liquidation heatchart next cluster area)
$250 (in extreme cases, the historical bottom during the Orchard vulnerability)
On-chain market players and capital movements 🐋
Whale buying on dips: During the roughly 42% drop in ZEC over the past two weeks, the top 100 wallet addresses increased their holdings by 8.85% (42,623 ZEC), while other whale groups grew their holdings by over 5.06%, reflecting a clear "buy on dips" strategy.
Huge short positions trapped: Hyperliquid's top ZEC contract position was shorted with 5x leverage for 50,370 ZEC (about $25.56 million), with an average position price of only $293. Currently, the unrealized loss per token is as high as $10.8 million, with a liquidation price of $712. This means that if ZEC violently surges above $712, the short will be forcibly liquidated, potentially triggering a chain of short squeezes.
Whale long positions: Previously, a whale deposited $10.12 million USDC in HyperLiquid, opening a 2x leveraged ZEC long position worth $8.1 million; Whales are also continuously building long positions in the $500 - $550 range.
Contract Data: Total market ZEC open interest is approximately $639 million. Binance whales' long-short position ratio is only 0.9379, with bears holding a slight advantage.
Positive factors ✨
Ironwood upgrade countdown: On July 28 (next Tuesday), Zcash will see the most important upgrade in its history—Ironwood (NU6.3) officially activated. By the end of May, the "unlimited minting" vulnerability in Orchard's privacy pool will be completely fixed, and a new "turnstile" mechanism will be added to ensure all fund transfers must pass through public checkpoints.
Mathematical proof nearing completion: The team responsible for the privacy pool development is nearing completion of the mathematical proof, confirming that there are no undetectable fake issuance vulnerabilities in the Zcash shielding pool; the news once drove ZEC up 12% in a single day.
Regulatory risk resolved: The SEC's investigation into the Zcash Foundation was closed in January 2026, with no enforcement action. Grayscale has submitted a Zcash spot ETF application, with potential inflows reaching up to $2 billion.
Institutional endorsement: Multicoin Capital partners publicly expressed a bullish outlook on ZEC; Forbes has included ZEC among the top ten buys for 2026. Shielded supply hits a record high.
Bearish factors ⚠️
"Exhausting all positive news" risk: The Ironwood upgrade is a positive factor the market has fully anticipated, and historically, Zcash upgrades often show "sell the facts" trend. Trading volume has shrunk by 70% from its peak.
The $500 level has been breached: Since May, the $500 level has repeatedly shifted between support and resistance, and after this break, this level has returned to a supply zone. If a quick recovery is not achieved, the bearish target is $360 or even $250.
Technical indicators have broadly weakened: the 4-hour RSI is approaching the oversold zone but has not yet reversed; MACD line remains below the signal line; AD indicators show continued weak demand in July; The price is below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages.
Macro liquidity tightens: Nasdaq plunges, U.S. Treasury yields rise to an 18-month high of 4.70%, and Bitcoin ETFs see a single-day net outflow of $225 million. The fear index was only 29, indicating "extreme fear."
Comprehensive assessment 🧐
$ZEC is currently in a critical period of strategic maneuvering before Ironwood's upgrade. On one hand, whales continue to accumulate shares amid declines, and the expectations of fundamental improvement brought by upgrades provide medium-term support; On the other hand, the loss of the $500 level and the broad weakening of technical indicators put pressure on short-term performance. July 25-28 is the window of greatest volatility, with both bulls and bears waiting for the direction after the upgrade is implemented.
In the short term, watch whether the $490–$500 level can hold—if it stabilizes and rebounds, the first target is $540–$560; If a break is confirmed, it could further decline to $470 or even $436. The $25.56 million short whale on Hyperliquid (liquidation price $712) is a potential short squeeze catalyst, but it requires sufficient buying strength to trigger. It is recommended to remain cautious until the upgrade is confirmed and the daily chart confirms it holds above $560.
The above analysis is based on publicly available market data and does not constitute any investment advice. Please assess the risks yourself. $ZEC #美军暂停对伊空袭, progress in the Strait navigation negotiations #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Gate’s explanation is this: When we remitted the agreed‑upon 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD tokens to the “fraudster’s” wallet, Gate’s Alpha system happened to automatically scoop up the ALD tokens. Subsequently, they claimed they couldn’t disclose who handled the listing process. In the end, the fraudster’s wallet transferred the funds into Gate Alpha for an airdrop. Is that correct?
Here’s the hash:
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
When a project has paid, completed the listing, and then is told, “The person you were communicating with wasn’t one of ours, and the project has been listed on Gate”—is that Gate’s official response?
Gate的意思是：我们按照合同约定付的100000usdt和800,000 ALD到了“骗子”钱包的同时，恰巧Gate的alpha自动抓取了ALD代币，然后不能公开谁对接上币对接流程，最后骗子的钱包转进了Gate alpha进行空投，是这样的吗？
哈希在这里：
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
当一个项目付了钱、上了币、然后被告知“跟你沟通的人不是我们的人，并且项目登陆Gate”——这是Gate的回答对吗？Gate的意思是：我们按照合同约定付的100000usdt和800,000 ALD到了“骗子”钱包的同时，恰巧Gate的alpha自动抓取了ALD代币，然后不能公开谁对接上币对接流程，最后骗子的钱包转进了Gate alpha进行空投，是这样的吗？
哈希在这里：
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
当一个项目付了钱、上了币、然后被告知“跟你沟通的人不是我们的人，并且项目登陆Gate”——这是Gate的回答对吗？
Gate’s explanation is this: When we remitted the agreed‑upon 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD tokens to the “fraudster’s” wallet, Gate’s Alpha system happened to automatically scoop up the ALD tokens. Subsequently, they claimed they couldn’t disclose who handled the listing process. In the end, the fraudster’s wallet transferred the funds into Gate Alpha for an airdrop. Is that correct?
Here’s the hash:
0x8dccbab785a7f4213d26925519809ff5f51e57e2342ed9ea35431f988271ea90
When a project has paid, completed the listing, and then is told, “The person you were communicating with wasn’t one of ours, and the project has been listed on Gate”—is that Gate’s official response?لقد تعلمت بالطريقة الصعبة أن أسعار العملات المشفرة غالبًا ما تتفاعل مع العناوين الرئيسية قبل وقت طويل من ظهور الأثر الحقيقي على السلسلة أو في السوق. لهذا السبب أنا أولي اهتمامًا أكبر لما يحدث حول أكثر من مراقبتي لشموع الأسعار اليومية.
محاولة السناتور سينثيا لوميس الأخيرة، بعد أن قالت إن الرئيس ترامب وافق على الالتزام بأحكام مشروع القانون الخاصة بالأخلاقيات، تبدو كتغيير مهم لأن الأخلاقيات كانت واحدة من أكبر العوائق أمام الحصول على دعم سياسي أوسع. وفي الوقت نفسه، فإن التشريع ما يزال بعيدًا عن كونه مضمونًا. فالديمقراطيون ما زالوا يتساءلون عن كيفية تطبيق تلك القواعد، كما أن مجلس الشيوخ ما زال بحاجة إلى أصوات كافية من الحزبين قبل أن يتحول أي شيء إلى قانون.
ما يلفت انتباهي ليس مجرد . إن وجود إطار تنظيمي أوضح قد يمنح البورصات ومصدري العملات المستقرة والمطورين والمستثمرين المؤسسيين مزيدًا من الثقة لبناء مشاريع في الولايات المتحدة. وهذا النوع من اليقين يهم أكثر بكثير من موجة صعود قصيرة العمر تقودها المضاربة.
ومع ذلك، أحاول ألا أخلط بين التفاؤل واليقين. للسوق عادة تسعير التوقعات السياسية قبل احتساب التصويتات النهائية، وإذا تعثرت المفاوضات مرة أخرى فقد ينقلب المزاج بسرعة.
متابعة من فضلكم. $BTC Ripple is the company that "makes banks the thing that gets eliminated after Bitcoin." Now it has spent $4 billion to buy itself into a bank.
Custody, Prime Brokerage, and Treasury were all acquired through acquisition. Ripple Prime liquidated $3 trillion+ and tripled this quarter.
Anti-bank has become bank. We've already seen this scenario—Coinbase entering the S&P 500, Circle seeking an IPO, Block becoming a bank. The ultimate goal for crypto companies is not a Launchpad, but a license.
The difference is that Ripple was once the most radical opponent of the financial system. Now, opponents have directly evolved into the system.一天涨 147% 是新闻吗？不重要。重要的是 DEXE 期货日成交量 $30 亿，排在 BTC、ETH 后面第三——比 SOL 还多。
$366M 市值的 token 期货成交量比一个 $75 的 L1 还多：要么有人在重仓 seek exposure，要么在做空博弈。
换手异常——OI 只有 $76M 流入期货却打 $30 亿量，平均持仓不到 3 小时。这不是投资，是赌局。
别只看涨：这种量价结构下 $366M 是个 30 分钟后可能变 $500M 的事——也可能变 $0。ETH's long-short ratio was 2.38, 32% higher than BTC's 1.81—the most aggressive long on the market, bar none.
But the irony came: the latest funding rate just turned negative (-0.0019%). This means the bears are starting to charge the bulls.
On one hand, the long-short ratio hit a recent high, while on the other, the rate turned negative. It's not consensus, it's stalemate: bulls bet on recovery, bears bet they won't hold on. BTC and ZEC also experienced negative funding on the same day, with three major coins simultaneously experiencing short positions and beginning to collect funds.
ETH is up +1% this week and BTC is down 0.5%. Bulls are right for now—but bulls are 2.4 times more than bears and haven't pulled the positive rate back up, so the volatility will be dramatic.Real-time market overview 🖥️
As of July 26, 2026, $KAITO price is around $1.19, having briefly reached a high of $1.21 intraday. The 1.18 you mentioned around that point should be the instantaneous price during the day's extreme surge. The 30-day cumulative increase reached +134.68%, and the 90-day increase was +153.63%. The 24-hour trading volume was about $5.71 million, with open interest surging +30.08% in 24 hours to $157 million. Futures traded $268 million vs. spot $18.3 million, with leverage as high as 14.6x.
Key support and resistance levels 📊
Resistance above: 1.1145 (24-hour high, direct resistance); 1.18 (extreme price spike); 1.25+ (previous institutional target level).
Support below: 1.02 - 1.00 (core psychological level, bullish lifeline); 0.98 (short-term divergence warning level); 0.78 (concentrated area of the contract liquidation heatmap).
On-chain market players and capital movements 🐋
Contract long positions are extremely crowded: 264 whales hold a total of $37.3 million in the KAITO contract, with a long-short ratio as high as 155.96%. Eighty-six whales hold large long positions, with unrealized gains exceeding $3.52 million.
Retail Investors Dominate the Market: Whale-to-Retail Ratio Data shows retail investors have fully controlled market trends, marking the first time since January 14.
Mounting Selling Pressure: Spot market data shows total sales of about $3.22 million versus total buys of $2.77 million, resulting in a net outflow of about $447,000.
Team Release Doubts: An address associated with the Kaito team transferred 5 million KAITO (about $5 million) to Binance 7 days ago, questioned for "knowing in advance about negative news and selling in advance."
Positive factors ✨
X platform's first AI Data collaboration: X officially announced its partnership with Kaito, seen as a key data choice for the Musk system in the AI war.
Product Expansion: Kaito Pro has launched a stock section, tracking sentiment, price, and other indicators for 3,000+ global stocks.
High staking yields: Founder Yu Hu announced that staking rewards are now live, with about 10% of tokens staked, offering an annualized yield of up to 70%.
Bearish factors ⚠️
Large-scale token unlock: On July 20, $KAITO worth $15.84 million was unlocked, accounting for 7.29% of circulating supply.
Staking unlock peak: Kaito's staking unlock has recently peaked, increasing potential selling pressure.
Yaps phased down: Kaito will gradually delist Yaps and the incentive leaderboard, which may affect community activity and short-term sentiment.
Vulnerability led by retail investors: Markets led by retail investors usually have poor sustainability, and once sentiment shifts, they can easily trigger stampedes.
Comprehensive assessment 🧐
KAITO is currently in a retail investor short squeeze, with a 30-day +134% gain that has significantly pushed it away from its short-term technical moving average. Contract open interest surged 30% to $157 million, with bulls highly crowded and a pullback risk that cannot be ignored. 1.02 - 1.00 is the bullish lifeline; if it falls, it could trigger a chain liquidation, pushing down to around 0.78. The $15.84 million token unlock on July 20 and the team's $5 million transfer suspicions pose potential negative factors. Although the X cooperation narrative provides medium-term support, the short-term risk of chasing higher prices is significant. It is recommended to closely monitor whether funding rates rise rapidly. $KAITO #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard 🚨 #CLARITYActStalled
The CLARITY Act is facing delays, with Senate Majority Leader Thune suggesting it may not pass before the August recess.
The biggest challenge appears to be political pressure around crypto-related ethics concerns. Critics argue the current rules may not go far enough, pointing to unclear ownership guidelines, limited enforcement, and an expiration date for the ethics provisions.
The bill is now caught between three major battles:
⚖️ Democrats pushing for stronger ethics protections
🏦 Banks raising concerns over stablecoin yield rules
👀 Political conflict-of-interest concerns surrounding crypto gains
Meanwhile, lawmakers like Gallego and Tillis continue working on a compromise, with recent drafts adding incentives for white-hat hacker disclosures.
📉 Prediction markets have reduced the odds of passage this year, adding uncertainty after crypto-related stocks previously rallied on CLARITY progress.
The big question: how much of that optimism gets priced back out if delays continue?
#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause BTC is rising, and several names are shining on the altcoin list, but do you really think this is Altseason?
So why are most coins still standing there in a daze?
Let's look at some very solid data: currently, less than 10% of altcoins are hitting short-term highs, while over 70% of tokens have seen daily trading volumes decline over the past week. It wasn't a lively party; it was more like a carefully curated VIP dinner—a few people got invitations, and most were outside in the wind.
Market sentiment is actually very fragmented. On the surface, BTC holds its ground, with strong stocks like $SOL and $HYPE leading the way, and AI narratives like $TAO and $WLD are still being embraced by capital. But if you focus on those forgotten lists—$BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP—you'll find that buying moments simply don't hold, and every price rise gets pushed back.
My own feeling is: emotions are a bit too rushed. Calling out 'Altseason' just by seeing a green candle can easily lead to trapping. A true altseason should be when liquidity flows like a tide across the beach, covering most corners, rather than just concentrating on a few isolated islands.
What is the capital doing now?
- It is very selective, only choosing coins that have narrative support, market maker support, or clear community beliefs.
- It doesn't cling to the battle; it exits after a single rally, giving you no sense of security chasing highs.
- It is also continuously returning to BTC for safe havens, indicating that risk appetite has not truly opened up.
So, bulls will say: BTC has stabilized, funds will eventually spill over, and now it's just warming up. Bears will say: this uneven market is more like a liquidity trap than a trigger signal.
I lean more toward the cautious latter. Sentiment is not hot enough, the breadth is not broad enough, and real confirmation signals—such as most altcoins collectively turning around the 20-day moving average and volume expanding simultaneously—have yet to appear.
Be patient, let the market deliver results first, and then we can get on board.
This is not investment advice; please make your own judgment. $BTC $ETH $SOL $HYPE #Crypto #Altseason #MarketSentiment明天，全球第四大DRAM厂商 #长鑫科技 登陆A股
代码：688825
发行价：8.66元
发行市值：5792亿元
Hyperliquid上的CXMT盘前合约已经报到约 6.09美元，折合 41元人民币，对应约 2.76万亿元市值
全球DRAM市场主要玩家：
三星：约40%，市值约1.3万亿美元
SK海力士：约30%，市值约1.3万亿美元
美光：约20%，市值约1万亿美元
长鑫：约7.7%，发行市值约810亿美元
预测开盘32—38元，盘中可能挑战HYPE隐含的41元；若冲到45元以上，对应市值超过3万亿元，短线情绪可能已经过热。
#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？ #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 #美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 "Jensen Huang's 950 Billion Yuan Deal in Korea: Don't Be Fooled by the Numbers, The Market Will Vote with Its Feet"
Jensen Huang, Lee Zaiming, and Lee Zairong sat around the table, raising their glasses and drinking happily.
A $950 billion chip order has been finalized, nearly half of South Korea's annual GDP. But on the same day, SK Hynix fell more than 8%, SanDisk dropped over 10%, and Intel dropped more than 7%.
The stocks that signed the largest orders fell the hardest. The market is voting with its feet. Will the U.S. stocks in the memory and chip sectors continue to fall going forward?
What is 950 billion? Not cash transfer, but "intended amount"
Including cumulative revenue over the next few years, upstream and downstream supporting facilities, and even repeated calculations. Essentially, it is a ten-year framework agreement, not a one-time order. Politics needs big numbers, capital markets need real cash flow: when the two clash, stock prices speak first.
Why did SK Hynix drop the most? Long-term agreements are a double-edged sword
SK Hynix has signed a long-term HBM supply agreement with Nvidia, locking in price and quantity. During price hike cycles, long-term contracts act as a protective umbrella, locking in low prices; During price decline cycles, long-term contracts are the ceiling; if high-priced supply meets spot price drops, profits are actually suppressed.
What's even more subtle is that Nvidia's costs have been locked in, and prices continue to rise. SK Hynix signed a "profit ceiling + cost floor" indenture contract.
Impact on Micron (MU): Structural threats outweigh positives
NVIDIA needs Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron suppliers; Micron is a "spare tire" and will not be completely eliminated.
However, Micron's HBM4 engineering sample pin rates are lower than Samsung and Hynix. SemiAnalysis predicts SK Hynix accounts for 70% of Nvidia's HBM4 supply and Samsung 30%, so Micron may miss out on Rubin's first year of mass production.
Micron's core logic has not collapsed, but its competitive advantage is shrinking.
Favorable factors: Micron's forward P/E ratio is only 9.2 times (Nasdaq average 25 times), explosive growth in AI memory demand, and Nvidia's need to diversify procurement to avoid being choked by a single supplier
Negative factors: HBM4 technology is lagging behind, the "duopoly structure" is forming in the HBM market, and the 950 billion yuan order further secures the long-term position of Korean manufacturers.
If HBM4 falls behind again, Micron will be squeezed to the edge of low profits, and its competitive advantage is shrinking.
How should we view stocks in the storage sector going forward?
In the short term: the 950 billion positive news has been priced in by the market, and sector-based sell-offs may continue.
Medium-term: SK Hynix's long-term contract locks in revenue visibility, but price risk needs to be verified; Micron's HBM4 certification and capacity ramp-up schedule determine the pace of recovery.
In the long term: the Korean giants have already secured a first-mover advantage. Micron's core variable is not this big order, but whether HBM4 can catch up.
To sum it up in one sentence
The essence of the 950 billion yuan order is a "certainty confirmation" for the AI storage sector, not a "lifeline" for Micron.
Micron's current forward P/E ratio is only 9 times, and pessimistic expectations have been fully realized. However, if HBM4 technology progress cannot catch up with Korean brands, valuation recovery will be permanently limited. The real catalyst to watch: whether Micron's HBM4 engineering samples can pass Nvidia's full certification by 2027; if so, it would be a confirmation signal of a mid-term bottom rebound.South Korea "Tightens Hold" on Nvidia: 6.5 Trillion Yuan Record-High Orders—Which Industries Will Benefit? What about China?
At this "San Francisco AI Summit," South Korea released the "San Francisco Artificial Intelligence Declaration," with a single core message: to build Korea into an irreplaceable core hub of the global AI supply chain. The specific order is broken down into several parts:
1.SK Group ↔ Nvidia: $750 billion
SK Group has reached a five-year long-term supply agreement for advanced memory semiconductors with US tech giants like Nvidia, totaling $750 billion;
SK Hynix has established a long-term partnership with NVIDIA to ensure next-generation memory supply and jointly develop HBM for AI training, AI agents, and physical AI;
SK Telecom will use Nvidia's Vera Rubin chip + SK Hynix HBM4 to build a 2GW-level data center in Korea, with the first facility scheduled to go online in 2027;
Anthropic has also placed an order with SK Hynix for its self-developed chips.
2. Samsung Electronics ↔ Broadcom: $200 billion (MOU)
5-year term, covering advanced storage supply + AI chip wafer foundry;
Samsung provides HBM to Broadcom and opens up wafer foundry capacity; The two parties jointly developed Broadcom's next-generation AI accelerator based on Samsung's HBM technology;
Samsung offers sub-2nm (sub-2nm) foundry + 2.5D/2.5D advanced packaging.
3. AI Data Center: About 5GW, about 2 million GPUs Korean companies are collaborating with overseas giants to build about 5GW of data centers and supply about 2 million GPUs.
4. Naver↔: $10 billion to build a $10 billion "global AI factory."
5. Physics AI / Robotics / Autonomous Driving Hyundai Motor Company has jointly built a "Robot Reference Platform" with NVIDIA to jointly develop autonomous sedans, and has partnered with Waymo to build an autonomous driving ecosystem; Samsung SDS signs strategic partnership with Anthropic; Anthropic signs a memorandum of understanding on AI security cooperation with South Korea's Ministry of Science and Technology.
Essentially: This is a deep "capacity for capacity" binding—South Korea is providing HBM and advanced storage capacity in exchange for NVIDIA's GPU and AI infrastructure deployment. The American AI giant is using this to lock in high-end storage supply for the next five years.
Direct beneficiaries (capacity providers):
HBM and high-end storage: SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, benefiting as the "third pole" (after Korean production capacity was locked, Micron secured about $100 billion in guaranteed long-term contracts);
Advanced packaging (2.5D/2.5D, TSV) and foundry (Samsung sub-2nm);
Semiconductor equipment: The three major OEMs will have a combined capital expenditure of about $53.5 billion in 2026, with HBM test equipment orders scheduled for two years in advance;
Data center infrastructure: GPUs, servers, liquid cooling, power supplies, optical modules, PCB/CCL.
Indirect Benefits (Demand Side):
Optical modules/CPO, servers, PCB/CCL—in the AI capital expenditure supercycle, with dual demand for independent overseas orders + domestic substitution;
Robotics/physical AI, autonomous driving;
Storage modules and packaging and testing—performance has already begun to explode.
In short: storage (especially HBM) has become the "hard currency" of the AI era, raising the demand ceiling for the entire computing power supply chain.
This is a "double-edged sword," and the domestic industry is divided into two camps.
Resistance Side (Bearish):
High-end HBM supply is locked in: Over the next five years, about 80%–90% of Korean companies will add high-end capacity to North America. By 2027, nearly half of the three giants' DRAM capacity will be secured by long-term contracts, making it harder for China to obtain high-end HBM from the international market;
Niches are further squeezed: the US and South Korea have formed a "storage–computing power–infrastructure" closed loop, leaving China excluded from the top-tier AI chip symbiotic circle;
Export controls may tighten: After the alliance deepens, restrictions on China's access to advanced equipment/technology may tighten.
Opportunities (Positive/Pressure):
The "gap left by general memory" is filled by domestic companies: Korean companies are investing 70+ of their new capacity into HBM, proactively reducing consumer-grade general storage production scheduling, with domestic manufacturers like Changxin becoming incremental spot suppliers;
Capacity was locked down, giving way to domestic brands: the Big Three had no capacity to cut prices and fight back, so domestic brands entered a market that competitors had voluntarily given up;
Rising demand ceiling = incremental growth far exceeds stock: even if domestic manufacturers only cut the "domestic substitution" portion, the absolute value far exceeds previous expectations;
Accelerating Autonomy and Controllability: As industry insiders believe, this serves as a wake-up call for Chinese cloud providers and AI companies—they must accelerate the validation of domestic substitution.
The consensus is: the urgency for autonomy and controllability has been significantly increased.
Clear positive news:
Changxin Technology (CXMT, DRAM leader): The most direct beneficiary. Taking on the universal DRAM/server memory gaps ceded by Korean companies; Q1 2026 revenue is expected to be 50.8 billion (+719% year-on-year), with first-half net profit expected to be 50–57 billion; The STAR Market IPO passed review raising 29.5 billion yuan mainly in HBM, with plans to mass-produce HBM3E by 2027, narrowing the gap with Korean companies to 2–3 years;
Yangtze Memory (YMTC, NAND): 294-layer NAND mass production, yield over 90%, 13% market share, ranking fourth globally, close to international tier;
Optical modules (Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyisheng), servers (Industrial Fulian), PCB/CCL (Hudian, Shengyi): Boom spillover, dual demand driving growth;
Packaging and testing (JCET, Tongfu), storage modules (Jiangbolong, Demingli, Baiwei), materials (Huahai Chengke): HBM advanced packaging and supporting domestic closed loops are taking shape.
Pressure/Damage:
Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, and other domestic AI chips: The real bottleneck is not design, but HBM supply. Huawei Ascend accounts for about 43% of domestic AI chips, but due to insufficient HBM, actual production capacity cannot be fully unleashed; Domestic HBM monthly capacity is only about 5,000 units, and imported HBM inventory is expected to gradually be depleted by the end of 2026—this is the most direct loss in the US-Korea long-term agreement;
Downstream consumer electronics: Storage prices have risen across the board, costs for mobile phones and smart terminals are rising, and small and medium-sized manufacturers face the challenge of "no available or unavailable stock." #韩国存储双雄获AI双巨头大单 $NVDA