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$QQQ 在7月录得约 -7% 的回报率，创下15年来最差7月表现，盘面核心矛盾在于深度回撤与下方长期分批建仓区间的重合。
历史数据显示过去15年中只有2024年出现 -1.68% 的负回报，而最高为2020年的 12.55%。当前 -7% 的剧烈波动打破了长期历史季节性区间，使价格结构直接测试超跌下沿。
随着下周市场进入狂暴波动窗口，价格若继续下探，将正式触发下方的击球与定投区间。这种深幅回调重塑了短线的风险收益比。
上行剧本关注均值回归。若价格在下探至击球区间后得到有效承接，伴随高波动释放结束，盘面将企稳并展开修复；一旦多头无法收复关键阻力，修复剧本即宣告失效。
下行剧本关注结构性破位。若价格无法在击球空间内企稳并跌破支撑，盘面回撤深度将继续扩大；反之若出现强力反弹，下行剧本止步。
整体结构判断的失效条件是，-7% 的极端回撤没有带来均值回归，而是直接砸穿所有击球支撑位。
未来7天最需要观察的变量，是价格进入击球区间后的多头承接强度以及下周剧烈波动下的实际下探深度。
#RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #初请18.7万低于预期，利率承压 #AFX跨链桥被盗2415万USDC Institutions aren’t buying everything. They’re picking sides. July 20–24 ETF data tells the story: ∼$148.76M net inflows, but the allocation split is wild. Bitcoin: +570 BTC. That’s ∼1.3 days of mined supply. Barely a nibble. Ethereum: +53,633 ETH. That’s conviction buying. Who did what: BlackRock dumped 1,427 BTC and stacked 51,569 ETH — major rotation into the smart contract leader. Fidelity bought 536 BTC, sold 3,691 ETH — looks like a hedge. ARK 21Shares loaded BTC (+1,204) and b#以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零
I'm Ci Ge, and the Ethereum staking channel has been completely cleared.
Validators exit queues drop to zero, and unstaking doesn't even have to wait a second. Last September, this queue was still blocked with 2.6 million ETH, but now it has all been gone. On the reverse side, 2.48 million ETH are waiting to be staked, taking 43 days. Currently, 40.9 million ETH are staked, accounting for 33.55% of the total supply, with 885,000 validators running, and an annualized yield of only 2.64%.
Zero exit means those who should leave have already left. Waiting in line for 43 days means those who want to get in are still pushing inside. The net direction of staked funds has completely reversed, shifting from outflows to inflows.
What does it mean for ETH?
The sell window is closing. Those who previously wanted to unlock and run have all done so, and the daily selling pressure of 1,800 ETH has completely disappeared. Newly staked ETH must be locked for 43 days, so this portion of shares will not be sold off in the short term. The validator exit window is essentially closed for the remainder of 2026, and the circulating supply of ETH available in the market is decreasing.
The Pectra upgrade is approaching, marking the most significant technical upgrade for Ethereum in two years. Some analysts expect that after the upgrade, the amount of ETH staked will increase to over 50% of the total supply. Once the staking rate exceeds 50%, exchange liquidity will be further depleted.
What does it mean for BTC?
The emptying of staking channels is direct evidence of funds flowing between sectors. ETH stakers choosing to exit and then re-queue indicate they are reconfiguring their assets, not clearing out and exiting. Some of these funds flowed into BTC. ETFs have seen net inflows for several consecutive days, with BTC rebounding from 64,000 to 65,000. The market is pricing in a logical way: ETH staking yields have dropped to 2.64%, so it's better to shift funds to BTC to leverage macro and compliance narratives.
Ethereum's long-term prospects still depend on whether L2 scaling can lower mainnet fees. However, the signal of staking exit and zeroing is positive for ETH and BTC in the short term. The selling pressure is gone, demand remains, and there is only one direction.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Hold onto your position. Think carefully. $BTC $ETH $DOGE Positions barely moved, but trading suddenly quieted: BTC broad-caliber open interest dropped only 0.16%, contract trading volume dropped 57.9%, and active bulls and bears remained nearly evenly split. In this case, the market is pulling based on existing volume, with a higher probability of a false breakout. The next time the price leaves the range, spot transactions only increase simultaneously to be considered valid; If only OI is stacked up, I'd rather move less. Which set of data do you use to identify false breakthroughs?2026/7/26——Dog Hitting Diary——Today's profit: 345-30=315 dollars
I still got up at 6 this morning and started sitting idly, sitting for nearly an hour and a half. CZ started posting on Twitter, sharing a crypto term DCA. Frequent chain scanners know this is a must-pursue, just like DYOR mentioned by He Yi before or fomo mentioned by CZ himself—these crypto terms are generally worth chasing. He also said that if you don't understand this term, you can't get rich, which really intensified the emphasis on DCA. So I blindly chased the train, picking the one with the highest market cap. Although there was an OG at the time, I didn't join because its tail number wasn't 4444 or four. I joined a new token ending with 4444 DCA, didn't dare to buy too much, chased high and put in 170 dollars. Luck was on my side; the entry point almost doubled right after buying. So I took out my principal at about double. Mainly because his statement was so strong—if you don't understand this, you can't get rich—so I planned to take out the principal and hold a bit longer. After holding for a while, I had 200k, then I sold all at my psychological price point, selling all at 4x, taking 350 dollars profit, feeling pretty good.
Then almost the whole day there was no dog, just sitting in front of the computer dazed and confused. Then I saw a mood post on Instagram and quickly bought in hoping to make a few tens of dollars and run, but got ambushed and lost 30 dollars. So still have to play from the official angle; other angles don't pump as fast as the official one, and the official angle pumps fast and is easier to exit.
Last night I missed some dogs on the stable chain. Today the leader pumped to 10M. I originally bought at 6M, sold when it dropped back to the original price. It pumped a lot today. Not often on that chain, so a bit hard to grasp, but not worried, waiting for a new angle. Stable should have big opportunities.
I'm quite satisfied with today. These days there are one or two golden dogs every day, so I plan to sleep early and get up early these days. When there's no market, sleep more, get up at 4 or 5 in the morning to start hunting dogs. This time frame to morning market is still good.
Yesterday I also farmed 7 accounts from the Base newbie event. Today I checked and all were gone, probably counter-farmed, but I'll wait a month to see, maybe they'll give something~
Today's summary: Don't be afraid of getting ambushed on big angles. Chase high when you should, take profit at double and that's it. Other angles are too easy to get ambushed unless it's a big angle. After a small angle pumps, don't enter; volume is too small. Same as always, wish brothers to catch golden dogs every day, make big money every day, and reach A8A9 soon!#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
The progress of the CLARITY Act has stalled, and its attempt before the recess has basically failed.
Short-term strict regulatory constraints will not be implemented quickly, temporarily removing the biggest hanging sword in the crypto market.
But a rational distinction is needed: it is merely a delay, not the bill being voided.
In the short term, it is suitable for a rebound in gaming sentiment, but in the medium to long term, volatility caused by ongoing policy games cannot be ignored.🚨 Institutions aren’t buying everything. They’re picking sides.
July 20–24 ETF data tells the story: ∼$148.76M net inflows, but the allocation split is wild.
Bitcoin: +570 BTC. That’s ∼1.3 days of mined supply. Barely a nibble.
Ethereum: +53,633 ETH. That’s conviction buying.
Who did what:
BlackRock dumped 1,427 BTC and stacked 51,569 ETH — major rotation into the smart contract leader.
Fidelity bought 536 BTC, sold 3,691 ETH — looks like a hedge.
ARK 21Shares loaded BTC (+1,204) and barely touched ETH (+481).
Grayscale quietly added 5,273 ETH.
Beyond BTC/ETH:
Money rotated into quality: XRP (+$8.15M), SOL (+$7.20M), LINK (+$2.98M).
HYPE bled -$8.61M — capital leaving speculation.
BNB, AVAX, DOT: $0 inflow. Institutional indifference = risky place to be long-term.
Bottom line: ETFs are accumulating ETH at a historic pace vs BTC. This isn’t random. It’s deliberate, long-term positioning.
Watch the flow, not the headlines. 💎
#DailyOrbit @OKX Orbit
#EarningsRealityCheck
#CLARITYActStalled #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
Policy expectations have reached a turning point, and the short-term likelihood of the CLARITY Act being implemented has greatly decreased.
Institutional funds originally remained on the sidelines, waiting for regulatory rules to clarify before making moves.
The delayed implementation time means a longer wait-and-see cycle, but the short-term negative risk is eliminated.
The market is highly likely to see a recovery in sentiment, with key attention to the follow-up of incremental funds.$SPACE The stock price has already fallen below its IPO price. The current $115 price seems bargainable, but only because it was previously offered at $135, but the initial valuation at $135 lacked real performance support.
The Barron's analysis team pointed out that the stock's peak was nearly halved, making it one of the worst-performing IPO targets since 2019. The most critical risk is that this trillion-yuan company is valued at a price-to-sales ratio of 40 to 50 times, a premium that is extremely rare. Valuation multiples essentially overdraw future earnings, and with discounted rates in the hands of the Federal Reserve, even if company earnings remain unchanged, interest rate changes could halve valuations.
Additionally, insiders have a 181-day lock-up period. After the lock-up is lifted, a large number of early profit-taking investors will flee, creating huge selling pressure. The current stock price is only a temporary price during the lock-up period. In its early days after listing, it became a popular buying target for retail investors, so don't blindly buy the dip.
Whether the current price of $115 is cheap is based on the company's real profitability or is anchored by the previous high price, this is something to think carefully.When discussing MEMES, you can't avoid the veteran player $DOGE. Many newcomers trading DOGE spend their days glued to Musk's Twitter, thinking a single post could trigger a major bull market. Today, combined with current market trends, I'll explain this classic meme coin in detail. Let's start with the underlying background: DOGE was originally a joke coin born in 2013, originally created by programmers to poke fun at Bitcoin. No one expected it to unexpectedly become a global sensation. It is considered the pioneer of the entire crypto meme track. Its credentials are clear, and almost every veteran player has heard of it, with deep public consensus. Later, Musk's continued public endorsement pushed DOGE's popularity to its peak, creating an epic surge that year. It was from that moment that the market formed a fixed impression: DOGE rally = Musk's dynamic. Considering the current market situation: Recently, the MEME sector has collectively rebounded, and DOGE has followed market sentiment with several rounds of surges. But the problem is obvious: each rally lacks momentum, and after a rally, it quickly starts oscillating with a bearish decline, making it difficult to form a consistent trend. Many people wonder: among leading Memes, PEPE and SHIB occasionally rebound, why is DOGE always fleeting? The core root lies in the token mechanism. In-depth analysis of the core logic of the market: DOGE's most fatal flaw: no total supply cap, continuous new issuance every year, no deflationary expectations. SHIB has a burn plan, the PEPE community continues to drive the deflationary narrative, and DOGE has been continuously adding new circulating tokens over the long termThe False Proposition and True Solution of Bitcoin DeFi: Why I Reevaluate OKX's wb3
Six trillion dollars worth of Bitcoin is lying dormant on the chain, and despite years of calls for BTC to enter DeFi, very few solutions have emerged. Existing bridging products either hand over private keys to multisig committees or rely on a complex set of trust assumptions. OKX's Wb3 takes a completely different path, with underlying logic that precisely addresses the pain points of the sector.
Mainstream BTC cross-chain solutions on the market essentially turn Bitcoin into wrapped assets. WBTC relies on BitGo custody, and various cross-chain bridges depend on a set of validators for guarantees. OKX Wb3's design is the opposite: BTC does not need to leave the Bitcoin chain; users lock assets through self-custody vaults, and the contract state on external chains is verified back on the Bitcoin network via zero-knowledge proofs, compressing trust assumptions down to the cryptographic level.
What truly made me stop and take a closer look was Wb3's engineering implementation. Existing ZK solutions often mean extremely high gas costs for verification on the Bitcoin chain, but OKX optimizes the proof structure to reduce the on-chain burden to an acceptable level. Of course, the interaction threshold for this system is not low; ordinary users need to understand script design at the UTXO layer, making the learning curve quite steep. The $BABY ecosystem currently needs to reduce the complexity of front-end interactions.
From a capital efficiency perspective, the layered design of TBV and Babylon staking protocols is very interesting. BTC staked can be directly used as DeFi collateral without needing to unstake and redeposit. Compared to competitors, most staking solutions lock assets and only passively wait for returns, while OKX tries to find a better balance between security and liquidity. Wb3 is still in the early validation stage, and its ecosystem richness is far from mature protocols on Ethereum. But it at least proves one thing: Bitcoin's DeFi does not have to come at the cost of self-custody. If this direction succeeds, BABY will capture not just the staking narrative but the foundational infrastructure value of the entire BTC native financial layer. OKX is standing at the right starting point. #OKX.ai：一个人就是一家世界级公司 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH Breaking news: The U.S. Senate is highly likely to vote on the CLARITY crypto bill next week, with Trump clearly stating that the bill will be signed immediately after being sent to the White House.
The probability of implementation within 2026 has risen sharply to 38%. Once the bill officially takes effect, it will attract massive institutional capital inflow, becoming a historic positive for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. Investors looking forward to a new bull market will pay close attention to this. #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Will it be a positive outlook or a premature failure? 再说交易：到底是谁砸盘的$DEXE
做了多次$DEXE,基本损了好多次，最后吃了一波，总共盈利6w刀。
平仓落袋盈利后，我就开始思考为什么项目方要这么操作。
文中提到因为mirro机制导致的先砸盘然后链上再出消息。
每一个交易我都想搞清楚，我就扒了一下，得出结论：
大概率是dwf有预谋的砸盘，且dexe的做市商不是dwf。
理由如下：
1.通过arkm查询dexe的持仓实体减少最多的为ceffu。穿透可查7月22日中Ceffu → Binance Deposit金额约 719,727 枚 DEXE。ceffu要么直接转入币安现货，要么经过0x98转入币安现货。（如图1、2）
2.ceffu的托管方有dwf，有且只有dwf接受dexe为抵押物借贷，进入ceffu。按照falcon文档，dwf可以选择奖资产放入dex开展cex-dex套利，也可以通过ceffu 的镜像的方式进入cex开展交易策略作为收益。（如图3）
3.MirrorX 并不是简单地把资产存放在交易所，而是让资产继续保存在 Ceffu Custody，同时在交易所生成一份 1:1 的映射仓位（Mirror Position）。
也就是说，交易所可以直接使用这份映射仓位进行交易、风险控制、保证金调整以及价格保护，而原始资产仍保留在 Ceffu 托管体系中。
4.按照usdf的收益机制，falcon的风控机制可以通过降低头寸，卖出现货，清算低压资产保持抵押系统健康。而根据ceffu官方文档，发起镜像的人必须为创建者或者管理员。
因此dexe的持有者或者项目方质押到falcon---falcon托管到ceffu--falcon到ceffu的发起mirrox策略到币安现货砸盘。（如图4）
5.是否为dwf策略出了问题，导致的清算或者卖出头寸。在清算之前，ceffu还通过0x98进行了2dexe转账测试（如图二）而真正的清算机制是自动执行的，这更像是有预谋的砸盘。
综上：dexe 的暴跌应该是DWF 有预谋的利用DEXE在FF的抵押，通过ceffu 去砸盘以镜像的方式到币安现货砸盘。SHIB这波，我一开始还以为又出了什么新利好
结果看了一圈，所谓的“24小时销毁4.19亿枚”，听着确实很唬人，但算下来也就值2000多美元
另一边，SHIB盘中涨了36%，市值一度多了近10亿美元
很明显，这根大阳线不是靠销毁烧出来的
真正点火的还是韩国资金。Upbit上的SHIB/KRW成交额超过6000万美元，现货先往上冲，接着又把一批空头打爆，行情就这么越滚越大
但DOGE同期才涨了6%左右，SHIB本身也没出现什么特别重大的利好
所以我感觉，这更像是SHIB自己突然抽风了一次，还远远算不上Meme季回归
不过老Meme确实有这个本事：平时半死不活，市场一想找个大家都认识、流动性又够、拉起来还有弹性的东西，它就能立刻从坟里爬出来
至于销毁，大概只是后来给这根阳线补上的故事
币是韩国资金买起来的，故事是涨完以后才有的$SHIB I retrieved the chip structure from April, and obviously the blank zone between 76k-80k has been partially filled, but the accumulated chip volume at 61k and 63k has reached its peak, which is quite interesting.
1. The massive chip concentration might represent a historical bottom, an ultra-strong support level, where selling pressure can't break it down, and a large amount of turnover holds it up.
2. If it breaks down and cannot recover in a short time, it will become the strongest resistance level in this bear market, with massive trapped chips suppressing the price, possibly triggering panic selling of chips above 80k, and the market will move to the next bottom consensus area to rebuild the bottom.
Therefore, I believe now is the true watershed moment for the market.
$BTC Over the past week, there has been a noteworthy change in the cryptocurrency ETF market: funds have not left the crypto market but are rechoosing their direction. For the week ending July 24, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $103.9 million, maintaining net inflows for the third consecutive week and becoming the largest asset attracting funds among all major cryptocurrency spot ETFs during the same period. Meanwhile, although Bitcoin ETFs still maintain weekly net inflows, the pace of inflows has clearly slowed; Meanwhile, products related to Hyperliquid's ecosystem token HYPE experienced capital outflows for the second consecutive week. The signals from this data are not complicated: institutional funds are still willing to allocate crypto assets, but currently lean toward Ethereum, which has ample liquidity, high market depth, and relatively mature investment logic, rather than continuing to chase new products that have just entered the institutionalization phase. Ethereum ETFs attracted funds for three consecutive weeks. According to SoSoValue data, in the past three weeks, the weekly net inflows of Ethereum ETFs were approximately $84 million; * $105 million; * $103.9 million. From the perspective of capital flow, Ethereum ETFs did not surge suddenly due to large single-day buying but maintained relatively stable net inflows for three consecutive weeks. This trend is often more noteworthy than a single weekly explosive growth. This indicates that institutional allocation to Ethereum is not driven by short-term events, but rather by a continuous adjustment of positions. Especially with Bitcoin ETFs flowing in quickly$ESP
This round of rally is based on modular L2 shared sequencing narratives + ecosystem collaboration implementation,
The direct driver is the rotation of capital in the sector + price elasticity brought by small circulation units,
Combined with the warming sentiment among the major mountain strongholds.
But this is a bearish rebound rally,
It's not a trend reversal,
The height of the rally heavily depends on sustained new positive catalysts
，
Without sustained major news, it is very easy to rise and then fall.#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
下周宏观决战周：FOMC按兵不动不叫利好，谨防“鹰派按兵”与日元拆仓双重洗盘
下周我们将迎来整个三季度最关键的宏观决战周。美联储 7 月议息会议（FOMC）、日央行（BOJ）利率决议，加上 SK 海力士等科技巨头财报将集中轰炸盘面。
不少人在群里喊“7 月按兵不动已经确定，利空出尽就是利多”。说实话，如果你抱着这种简单粗暴的思想去开高杠杆，下周极其容易踩中宏观超级周的洗盘陷阱。
咱们结合当下的资金面和博弈节点，拆解下周加密市场的核心逻辑：
第一，美联储“鹰派按兵不动（Hawkish Hold）”的概率极高。CME 利率数据早已把 7 月不加息不降息的概率押到了 90% 以上。这意味着“按兵不动”本身毫无溢价，市场交易的完全是鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的前瞻指引。在 10 年期美债收益率死死钉在 4.7% 高位的背景下，只要鲍威尔暗示 9 月降息门槛依然很高，盘面上那些靠“提前交易降息”开起来的高杠杆多头，分分钟就会被砸盘清算。
第二，日央行（BOJ）议息会议隐藏着流动性拆仓暗雷。大家都在盯美联储，却往往忽视了日元。一旦日央行释放鹰派信号或加息，日元升值将直接引发全球“日元套息交易（Yen Carry Trade）”的平仓潮。跨国对冲基金为了补缴保证金，会无差别抛售高 Beta 风险资产，给 BTC 和美股造成流动性抽水。
第三，场内资金面依然是缺水状态。过去一周，全网稳定币日均流入保持在近一年的低位区，只有关键支撑位预设了约 33 亿美元的主力限价买单。这说明主力根本没有市价向上吃单突破的意愿，只是在低位摆好海绵等散户割肉。
我的交易结论：下周在 FOMC 和 BOJ 决议落地之前，盘面大概率维持低量能震荡，任何无量的冲高都是诱多洗盘。
你们觉得下周鲍威尔会放鹰还是放鸽？日元拆仓会不会掀起新一轮洗盘？评论区聊聊。
$BTC $ETH $ALLO $KAITO BULLISH MOMENTUM BUILDING, HIGH PROBABILITY CONTINUATION SETUP
Long #KAITO
Entry: $1.185 - $1.205
SL: $1.145
TP1: $1.235
TP2: $1.280
TP3: $1.350
After a powerful impulsive rally, $KAITO is holding above its recent breakout zone instead of giving back gains, which suggests buyers are still defending higher prices. The current pullback looks like healthy consolidation around a fresh demand area, while the $1.18-$1.20 region is acting as key support. A sustained hold above this level keeps the path open for a retest of $1.232 and, if that liquidity is cleared, continuation toward $1.28-$1.35 becomes the higher-probability scenario. A loss of $1.145 would weaken the bullish structure and invalidate the setup.#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause 📊 跨资产报价 | 22:59
WTI原油 90.8900（-2.05%） / 布伦特原油 93.1600（-1.85%） / 天然气 2.9040（-0.17%）
波动线索：WTI原油变化更明显，先观察是否传导到美元流动性和风险资产情绪。
观察视角：报价类内容和主号快讯错开，适合补充贵金属、能源、外汇对加密市场的外部变量。
验证点：如果这些资产的方向与BTC/ETH背离，优先观察风险偏好是否重新定价。
仅作市场观察，不构成投资建议。Alert 🚨 (compiled from the latest news. Original: @尘歌壶来) The current price is around 0.35, still below the 50-day EMA at 0.4141 and the 200-day EMA at 0.4654. MACD momentum is approaching zero, RSI is in the middle of 44—the technical outlook remains bearish in the short term. The 1-hour chart is fluctuating narrowly between 0.355 and 0.35, with 0.3438 being the key support formed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. If this daily chart closes below, the path will directly target the 0.2267 Fibonacci anchor point, which is the 0.23 depth value zone given by the user framework. What truly determines WLD's mid-term fate is the unlock clock, not the tech bit. On-chain visible circulation: starting July 24, WLD's daily unlock volume dropped sharply from 5.1 million to 2.9 million, a 43% decrease—community quotas halved (3.2 million → 1.6 million/day), TFH team and investor quotas dropped by 32% (1.9 million → 1.3 million/day). This is an automatic execution mechanism for write-in, tamper-proof smart contracts, with no cliff-like unlocking. It sounds like great news, but CryptoSlate has broken the ice: as of April 10, 4.9 billion WLD have been unlocked (49% of the total supply of 10 billion), with about 3.3 billion in circulation; By July 8, the circulating supply had risen to 3.52 billion. Techi's analysis is more direct—at current prices, the daily supply of 2.9 million coins is about $1.2 million, accounting for only 0.5 percentage points of WLD's daily trading volume, with minimal direct price impact. FlipReports indicate that SHIB surged 36% today, mainly driven by Korean capital.
This also indirectly explains why EUL doesn't always show waves like those previously listed Korean exchanges.
Because the stock market is closed today, Koreans, who are particularly fond of risk assets, can only shift their attention to cryptocurrencies.
Of course, EUL's rise and sustain for so long is not only due to the Korean market paying the price, but also because the market makers seize the opportunity and have ambition.
If it were other currencies, even if it was on the weekend, they would still have to smash when needed. $SHIB $BTC $ETH 晚上复盘Meme板块的时候，我突然想到一个问题：下一轮牛市，DOGE还能不能继续成为那个带头冲锋的Meme龙头？
我觉得这个问题不能只看马斯克还会不会喊话。
2021年的狗狗币，确实创造过一个很特殊的行情。
那个时候Meme赛道还没有现在这么拥挤，市场上的选择没有那么多，大量散户情绪和投机资金都集中在DOGE身上。
马斯克一条动态，就能让DOGE短时间出现巨大波动。
但现在的市场环境已经完全不同了。
最近即使马斯克偶尔提到DOGE，市场反馈也没有以前那么强，更多时候只是短线出现一波脉冲，随后又回归原来的节奏。
我觉得这不是简单的“马斯克影响力失效”，而是市场参与者变多之后，资金开始变得更加分散。
现在Meme赛道竞争非常激烈。
以前大家聊Meme，很多人第一想到的是DOGE；但现在链上生态不断扩张，尤其是Solana生态里不断出现新的Meme资产，像PEPE、BONK等都吸引了大量资金和注意力。
同样一笔投机资金，现在有更多选择，不会像过去一样全部围绕DOGE聚集。
另外一个变化，是DOGE曾经最吸引人的故事正在慢慢降温。
当年“DOGE上火星”的叙事非常有感染力，很多人相信随着马斯克和SpaceX的发展，Dogecoin可能会成为未来太空支付的一部分。
这个故事确实给市场带来了很强的想象空间。
但几年过去，大家也逐渐意识到，宏大愿景和真正落地之间，需要时间验证。一个故事能推动情绪，但长期价格最终还是需要新的需求、新的应用或者新的资金推动。
所以我的看法是，DOGE并不是没有机会。
它依然拥有很强的品牌认知度、庞大的社区基础，以及其他Meme币难以复制的历史地位。
但如果期待它简单复制2021年的疯狂行情，我觉得难度会比以前高很多。
下一轮牛市，Meme赛道大概率依然会有资金参与，只是竞争方式会变化。以前可能是“谁名气大谁上涨”，未来更可能是资金热度、社区活跃度和市场叙事共同决定谁能跑出来。
对于我自己来说，我不会因为DOGE过去辉煌就默认它未来一定强，也不会因为马斯克影响减弱就完全否定它。
老牌资产最大的优势是共识，但最大的挑战也是如何找到新的增长故事。
交易里最怕的，就是拿过去的成功经验，去预测完全不同的市场环境。$SKHYNIX The early morning construction log shows that the validator exited the elevator shaft and cleared it to the zero floor. The massive steel truss that once accumulated 2.6M ETH was unloaded, and the temporary support structures poured in by the staking protocol were finally removed. A new batch of load-bearing columns is being cured in the foundation, with 2.48M ETH of concrete awaiting a 43-day setting cycle.
Only architects can understand this moment of stress transition: when the exit queue reaches zero, it means the previously overloaded cantilever arm is unloaded, and the structure's self-weight returns to the main load-bearing system. The accelerated growth of entry queues is like adding loads to an already stable foundation, which is an extreme test of the floor's load-bearing capacity. I opened the white paper design and saw that the original load design was a 16.67% staking rate (about 20 million ETH), while the current 33.55% load has already caused creep cracks in the load-bearing wall—2.64% APR is the concrete shrinkage rate, which tells you whether the material is at its elastic limit or plastic flow.
The total amount of steel for construction (ETH) is about 122 million units, with 40.9 million pieces currently locked as prefabricated floor slabs within steel frame structures (885,000 active nodes). The rebar that disappeared from the exit queue was transferred into the inventory of the entry queue, forming a new structural grid. This dynamic balance determines the ceiling height of the building: if the incoming load continues to exceed the return load, the ceiling height will be compressed; Otherwise, cavities will form. Historically, such a dense two-way tower crane scheduling has never been seen before—on one side, the unloading hooks are empty; on the other, the loading pump trucks have queued for 43 days.
For designers, the most dangerous thing is not load size, but eccentricity. When net staking flow reverses from outflow to inflow, the center of mass of the entire building shifts. We need to recalculate the anti-overturning moment to ensure the redundant design of the underlying architecture can withstand this lateral shear force. As for whether the attached steel cable, called "US XMSTR," can be stretched simultaneously—that's something only structural engineers care about. I only know that any skyscraper's load-bearing wall will have cracks and rebar during renovations. # #ethexitqueuezeroMusk's net worth plummets, joking that he is a "(former) trillionaire"! Tesla's stock fell nearly 20% this week, marking its largest weekly drop since 2022, while SpaceX shares hit their lowest level since its IPO
Over the past week, Musk's wealth empire has experienced a severe "tectonic movement." His two listed companies performed poorly this week. Tesla's stock price fell nearly 20% this week, closing at $313.03 per share, marking its largest weekly drop since 2022; SpaceX closed at $115.07 per share, the lowest level since its IPO last month.
Data from the Bloomberg Billionaires Index shows that Musk's personal wealth has evaporated by about $130 billion (approximately 880 billion RMB) in just five trading days, and just a few weeks ago, he became the first billionaire in human history to surpass a $1 trillion net worth.
Musk himself joked on social media that he was a "(former) trillionaire."
Tesla's stock plunge was triggered by Tesla's second-quarter results released Wednesday evening below expectations. The financial report shows that Tesla achieved revenue of $28.24 billion in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations and up 26% year-on-year, marking the first time in three years that revenue growth exceeded 20%. However, Q2 operating profit was only $398 million, far below the market expectation of $1.39 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.33, down 18% year-on-year, significantly below expectations.
Reports indicate that Tesla's profits unexpectedly declined in the second quarter, mainly due to boosting electric vehicle sales through discounts. The company's adjusted net profit for the three months ending June was $1.2 billion, down 17% year-over-year and below Wall Street's expectation of $1.9 billion.
The report mentioned that the U.S. government sharply cut the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit and abolished regulations encouraging electric vehicle production, after which Tesla faced difficulties in the U.S. market. The revenue from selling regulatory credits to competitors and helping them offset emissions dropped from $439 million a year ago to $146 million.
Meanwhile, to drive its expansion into AI and robotics, Tesla's capital expenditure more than doubled compared to the same period last year. This expenditure led to the company's first quarterly cash burn in two years, with free cash flow negative $1.1 billion. Musk told investors that the company still plans to invest over $25 billion in 2026, nearly three times the previous year's amount.
Public information shows that Tesla's stock price has dropped nearly 30% this year, making it the worst performer among tech giants.
Meanwhile, although SpaceX's stock price surged after going public, it has been declining over the past month. Four out of the past five weeks have been down, and so far, it has dropped about 43% from its closing high.
Daniela Hathorn, Capital.com senior market analyst, said SpaceX's stock price decline is the combined result of "profit-taking, valuation revaluation, and the fading of previously extremely optimistic positions." #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? $TSLA $ORDI
🔵 ORDI is up 6.46% to $3.78, but the MACD is negative – this is a dead cat bounce in a downtrend.** The RSI6 at 29 is weak, and the KDJ is showing no bullish conviction whatsoever. The SAR at $3.87 is acting as a heavy ceiling. The 24‑hour high of
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mshortingORDI at $3.78 with a target of $3.65, and if the SAR holds, $3.50 is next. The ordinals are about to get rekt – short it.#美军暂停对伊空袭, negotiations on the opening of the strait made progress
When the pineapple-haired 🍍 guy saw the words "pause airstrikes," his first reaction wasn't positive news. First, let's confirm: has the Strait of Hormuz actually opened?
Currently, the U.S. has indeed suspended a new round of airstrikes on Iran, and both sides are discussing the issue of navigation through diplomatic channels, but this is not a formal ceasefire nor a final agreement 🤷
The focus of the negotiations is to reduce Iran's restrictions on ship passage, allowing energy transport to gradually resume. The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of the world's oil transport, and once navigation resumes, the war premium on oil prices may truly decrease
🍍 The problem is that the situation has not fully cooled down
Although the U.S. military has suspended airstrikes, the maritime blockade of Iran continues; The conflict has also spread to the Red Sea and Caspian Sea, with the Houthis attacking Saudi energy facilities
So now, I won't judge that oil prices will immediately return to normal just because of a "pause in airstrikes."
🍍 I will continue to look at three things:
First, has a formal navigation agreement for the straits appeared?
Second, can the tanker steadily resume navigation, rather than just verbal release?
Third, will there be new attacks on energy facilities in the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia?
It's also simple for crypto users,
When the strait truly resumes navigation, oil prices and inflationary pressures ease, making it easier for U.S. Treasury yields to fall.
If only a few days of air raids are suspended but shipping and energy facilities remain unsafe, the market may quickly re-trade risksAlert🚨 (Compiled from the latest news, Original: @尘歌壶来) (Summary and analysis results at the end for quick reference) 1. Real readings from the derivatives side according to Coinglass: RE perpetual latest price 0.6046, down 7.77% in 24 hours, futures trading volume $103.6 million, spot trading volume $33.84 million, open interest $38.05 million. Funding rates are negative on most platforms across the network—Binance -0.0990%, Bybit -0.1029%, Gate -0.0982%, MEXC -0.0986%, only HTX slightly positive at 0.0050%. Sharpe Terminal aggregates 9 platforms: Gate, Bitget, BingX, KuCoin, OKX, MEXC, Binance all have "shorts paying fees," Bybit slightly "longs paying fees." Translated into on-chain language: shorts are paying rent to hold positions; this is not "shorts taking profit to suppress prices," but "bears betting but accumulating costs"—once the price reverses, negative funding rates will accelerate short covering. 2. Misalignment in liquidation structure: 24-hour total network liquidations $911,300, longs $474,700, shorts $436,600, almost evenly split. 1-hour liquidation volume nearly equal at $44,800 (longs $22,700 / shorts $22,100) Alert 🚨 (compiled from the latest news, original: Chenge Hulai) (summary at the end can be viewed directly for analysis). Let's first recalculate the scale. The user's 0.38-0.55 support and resistance framework corresponds to BEAT's early micro-cap phase. However, the latest CoinGlass aggregation shows Audiera BEAT's current price is $2.2789, a 24-hour surge of 37.26%, with 288 million tokens in circulation, market cap $647 million, and open interest in contracts $145 million 24-hour contract turnover $5.755 billion, spot traded $191 million. The 0.38-0.55 in user data has already been left ten streets behind by the market—this article can't be written as the original framework of "buy the dip 0.38-0.40"; that's Kezhou Qiujian. 1-hour chart spot price around 2.28 is fiercely contested, 24-hour range is 1.60-2.40, single-day volatility nearly 50%. Public aggregated long-short ratio: mainstream platform large players' long-short ratio is between 0.95-1.08 (neutral to slightly bullish). Binance's top traders' long-short ratio reached 1.47 (slightly bullish), while OKX's account long-short ratio was only 0.57 (slightly bearish). Large players split, retail investors are bearish—a typical 'smart money buys, retail investors chase shorts' eve squeeze structure. 24-hour liquidation data reveals the truth: 1.325 million USD was liquidated across the network, of which 1.253 million were short liquidations (94.6%). As prices rose, bears were heavily triggered. The peak liquidation occurred in 7Poolin was once the largest Bitcoin mining pool and is now filing for bankruptcy
Poolin, which once controlled nearly 20% of Bitcoin's hashrate, has fallen into Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, with debts reaching $173 million. This was a brutal decline, but headlines alone don't tell you how much of the debt has already been priced in by the market.
The only real offer currently on the table is: acquiring a mining site in Texas for $52 million—just a small fraction of what creditors are owed. At the current $BTC levels level, mining profit margins are thin, and this case will test how much residual value a once-dominant mining pool still retains in bankruptcy.
For $BTC, this is more like an emotional headline than a structural change. When a pool collapses, hash rate is quickly reallocated. The real question is: will this trigger broader pressure among miners with similar leverage characteristics—$ETH $DOGE #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 #以太坊验证者退出队列已降至零 #初请18 7,000 below expectations, with interest rates under pressure 🟩 $DOGE LONG SETUP
📍 Entry: $0.0728–$0.0730
🎯 TP1: $0.0740 • TP2: $0.0755 • TP3: $0.0770
🛑 SL: $0.0712
📊 Analysis: +3.84% makes DOGE one of the strongest movers here. If it holds above $0.0728, momentum can continue toward higher targets. Avoid chasing a sudden spike.
#EarningsRealityCheck #CLARITYActStalled #USIranStrikePause $DOGE Alert 🚨 (compiled from the latest news. Original: @尘歌壶来) The current price is consolidating at 58.79, holding above the 1-hour MA20 at 58.46. 58.97 is the intraday high + first supply wall, and 59.48 is the hard upper limit of the 4-hour Bollinger upper band. The 1-hour chart is at EMA7/EMA25 consolidating, so the short-term direction hasn't been selected. However, the 50-day EMA overlaps at 58.94 and the 58-60 support zone, so the institutional cost anchor is under pressure. On the contract side of public aggregation, HYPE's perpetual comprehensive long-short ratio is 1.03, funding rate +0.0042%, indicating traders remain bullish. But in the past 24 hours, the entire network was liquidated by $14.92 million, with long positions surging 14.71 million and short positions only 200,000—the long explosion is 70 times the short explosion, indicating that the rebound between 58 and 60 was driven out by long positions, not by short positions. The skeleton's reading—"long positions increased to 123, short positions decreased, and the entry price for big players was 59.87"—matched this reading: institutional investors accumulated shares at 58-60, while leveraged retail long positions were spot-cleaned above 59. The on-chain deflation engine data needs to be considered separately; it is HYPE's fatal weakness compared to other platforms: protocol daily fee revenue ranges between 1 million and 2 million USD, 30-day fees are 65.9 million USD, and the annualized run rate is about 828 million USD. 99% of protocol revenue is used to buy back HYPE on the open market and send it to the burn address. So far, a total of 46.8 million+ HYPE tokens have been burned, accounting for about 4.6% of the initial total supply, resulting in a decrease in circulating supply警报🚨（根据最新消息整合而成 原创：@尘歌壶来）（最后有总结可直接看分析结果） 1. 解锁时钟先于价格响RootData 口径经 ChainCatcher 转发确认：ZAMA 将于北京时间 7 月 2 日 0 时解锁约 2.7958 亿枚，估值约 869 万美金 。总供应 110 亿枚、当前流通 22 亿枚、流通率仅 20% ，单次解锁占流通约 12.7%——对小市值 FHE 标的属重磅供给事件。解锁曲线显示团队 20%、VC+天使 30%、基金会 20% 合计 70% 仍处锁定，规则为团队 1 年悬崖+4 年线性、投资人持续释放 。7 月 2 日这刀只是开始，真正长期抛压会持续多年，但短期最锋利的刃就是这一周。 2. 大户转净空的链上证据用户骨架给的多空比下降 25%、大户转向净空头主导，与链上公开数据吻合。第三方链上监测显示 ZAMA 持有地址约 2672 至 2679 个，前 10 地址集中度高达 97% ——典型的小盘高控盘结构。KOL 持仓仅 3 个地址、占比 0.065%，聪明钱地址虽有小量介入但量级有限 。这种结构下"大户转空"的信号含金量极高：控盘方的一举一动直接🚨 *Jensen: "NO CHIP BUST FOR A WHILE"*
"THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT" 📈
Actual: 3 customers = 54% of NVIDIA 💥 revenue
META 21% | OPENAI/ORACLE 17% | XAI 16%
2026 Capex Hyperscaler: $785B → 2027: ∼$1T 💸
TSMC $60-64B | Intel $20B. The U.S. plant runs only 72.2% 🏭
Trillions of dollars poured into demand from several companies
Just 1 Capex cut, the whole chip is forecast to change color ⚠️
Jensen may be right about AI. But the risk of concentration is real
$BTC BTC's sideways trading structure has partially diverged into valuation offenses, but the derivatives market has yet to price in tail concentration risks.
In current price action, which expectations have already been overleverened, and which positions are exposed to the vulnerability of a direction reversal?
- The original post observed that market funds are highly concentrated in a few tokens: BTC serves as a liquidity anchor, ETH represents institutional interest, SOL plays a high beta role, TAO and WLD lead the AI track, HYPE maps risk appetite, and DOGE and ZEC reflect retail sentiment. This stratification itself has been partially reflected in price, but the part not yet priced in is whether, under divergence, the implied volatility and funding rates in the derivatives market have become overly concentrated in a few positions.
- Key changes in the current market structure: net spot inflows are concentrated in small-cap tokens like JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, while momentum from tokens like BEAT, EDGE, TRUMP, and VIRTUAL is declining. This extreme divergence means that market makers and leveraged traders may overconcentrate their positions in the same direction (such as going long on strong coins or short on weak ones), increasing skew risk in the derivatives market.
- Transmission logic: If BTC remains sideways, leverage costs (funding rates) may remain positive on strong coins, attracting more arbitrageurs. However, once BTC experiences directional fluctuations (such as breaking through key support), concentrated long positions face chain liquidation pressure, which in turn amplifies selling of weak coins through the BTC-ETH-altcoin liquidity transmission chain. Conversely, if BTC breaks upward, leveraged long positions in strong coins may accelerate further gains, but liquidity depletion in weak coins remains difficult to alleviate.
- Biased bullish path and conditions: BTC must break through and hold above previous highs (e.g., above $73,000), driving funding rates up moderately rather than extremes, while ETH needs to show sustained signals of institutional buying (e.g., continuous expansion of net ETF inflows). In this scenario, strong AI sectors (TAO, WLD) and high-beta assets (SOL, HYPE) may undergo valuation repricing.
- Bearish risk and conditions: If BTC repeatedly fails to test the $68,000-70,000 range, or if the funding rate surges to a historic high on strong coins (annualized 50%+), it will trigger a double kill between long and short. The tail risk lies in the concentration of liquidity among small-cap coins leading to market makers exiting, triggering a liquidity exhaustion event similar to June 2023.
- Key validation signals: Whether the BTC perpetual contract funding rate for Binance and Bybit has exceeded 0.01% for three consecutive days; Whether the open interest of strong coins (such as JELLYJELLY, OPG) increases against the trend when prices stagnate; Is the ETH/BTC exchange rate stabilizing above 0.05?
Conclusion: The current market has price differentiation, but the derivatives market has not yet experienced the vulnerability of centralized positions under price differentiation. Patiently waiting for funding rates to return to neutral, or for BTC to give clear direction, is more in line with risk management discipline than chasing short-term momentum. The risk lies in the possibility that centralized leverage may be exposed before the direction is chosen.
$BTC $ETH $SOLSince mid-2026, the A-share market has generally operated within a game of existing funds, with average monthly daily turnover steadily between 750 billion and 880 billion yuan, and trillion-yuan turnover has become a temporary scarcity. The most distinctive features of the current market are weak incremental capital entry willingness, accelerated sector rotation, and shorter persistence of hot spots. In this relatively conservative market environment, the A-share technology sector is set to face multiple concentrated pressures on July 27. Externally, there is sentiment transmission from the collective pullback of leading US tech companies; internally, Changxin Technology, which raised as much as 66.6 billion yuan and listed on the STAR Market, has diverted liquidity. Coupled with internal issues such as valuation and performance mismatch after years of speculation in the tech sector, three layers of testing intertwine, destining the tech sector to undergo a round of deep risk assessment. For ordinary retail investors, many are used to focusing on daily price movements and following market news, making it hard to see through the underlying logic behind events. This article avoids obscure technical jargon, combines decades of real historical trends in A-shares and publicly available industry financial data, popularizes the basic market knowledge retail investors must master, breaks down the triple core pressures facing the technology sector, clarifies the boundary between short-term emotional disturbances and long-term industry development, focuses on clarifying understanding and maintaining the right mindset, and does not involve individual stock trading, position allocation, or timing trading guidance, aiming to help readers develop more mature market judgment thinking. 1. First Challenge: US tech plunges, external sentiment spreads, suppressing overall sentiment in domestic tech sectors. Recently, NasdaqDon't Trust "Gradual Shutdown": BitMart's Steps and Hidden Dangers
The phrase "gradual shutdown," once uttered by a crypto exchange, basically admits that the situation is out of control. The remaining question is never "whether to shut down," but rather "how to shut down."
BitMart announced it will stop trading by August 26, 2026, and completely cease platform operations in January. The trigger seems clear: the BMX token plummeted, and users began complaining about delayed withdrawals. However, attributing the cause-and-effect as "the token price crashed, so the platform can't continue" likely overestimates the credit that token should carry—it was never a true risk isolation layer, more like a prematurely leaking gas meter.
Withdrawal delays are never accidental technical glitches for crypto exchanges. They are the first visible sign of liquidity cracks—starting with one or two hours, then one or two days, and finally customer service only replies "processing." BitMart has not publicly explained the specific reasons for the delays, nor provided reserve or custody proofs, only a shutdown timetable. Based on this alone, one should not hastily interpret "gradual" as "orderly."
A common counterargument is: exchanges that openly admit difficulties and provide a timetable are more sincere than those that just pull the plug. This logic can only be understood as "relatively well-intentioned," but when it comes to asset safety, "relative goodwill" offers no hard guarantees. History repeatedly reminds us that many platforms, under the smoke screen of "orderly exit," ultimately leave users with zeroed account balances and unanswered emails. BitMart's shutdown plan spans nearly half a year; this extended window is both an opportunity for users and a buffer for itself—what exactly is being buffered is not mentioned.
The BMX token crash is the driving event, but more attention should be paid to whether the staking mechanism and market-making structure before the crash involved hidden leverage. Currently, no public data can determine if the BMX crash directly triggered the exchange's payment shortfall; only that the two events are like interlocking gears in time. What is certain is: the token crashed first, then withdrawals got stuck, followed by the platform announcing closure. The sequence itself sends a strong signal, no announcement needed to confirm the crisis.
Counter-evidence is also easy to find. BitMart still allows withdrawals, albeit slowly, and has not completely locked them; its closure announcement is calm in tone, implying it will "assist users in handling assets." If in the coming months many users successfully withdraw funds and on-chain evidence of ongoing payouts is found, then "gradual shutdown" might shed its notorious reputation in the industry. But one must distinguish between "can withdraw" and "you can withdraw." Delayed arrivals are a form of liquidity rationing: some can cash out, but not everyone.
Subsequent observation indicators are more honest than any statement: whether unilateral early termination of trading occurs before August 26, whether withdrawal thresholds are secretly raised, whether BMX price remains near zero, whether the team publicly responds with any concrete payout plan—and most importantly, whether a large number of real users confirm full withdrawals. Without these, any "gradual shutdown" narrative is just bubbles grasped by a drowning person.
Exchanges have the freedom to shut down, but users cannot afford to trust lightly. BitMart's timetable is a question mark, not a guarantee. Don't wait until the ship sinks to study the lifeboat seats; now is the time to check if you are already standing at the edge of the deck. 警报🚨（根据最新消息整合而成 原创：@尘歌壶来） 现价0.946附近盘整，日线RSI(7) 76.93、RSI(14) 73.74，动能偏强但各周期均处拉伸区，停顿或回测不破坏趋势，但要小心日内针。上一根日线收0.999、接近1.00确认门槛，即时现货参考0.953，急升后结构仍偏正面但解锁后波动双向放大。 真实决定KAITO短期命运的，不是1.07这道用户给的阻力，是解锁时钟。 链上可见流转，7月20日Core Contributors既定释放1760万枚KAITO，按市价折算约1680万美元，是每月20号左右的周期性解锁。每日现货成交3830万美元，是单次解锁市值的2倍以上，承接缓冲够但有限。问题不在这一次，在流通率——目前流通2.41亿/总10亿，流通率24.1%，未来持续解锁是结构性卖压。 合约端清算结构要和骨架对齐： Coinglass清算热图明确0.85是KAITO/USDT的流动性阈值[Liquidation Heatmap]。24小时全网爆仓19.96万美元，其中多单15.45万、空单4.5万，多单占77.42%——回调节奏里杠杆多单被清洗，和骨架"日线RSI超买#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
The U.S. crypto regulatory bill CLARITY faces new challenges once again.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune recently stated that the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing before Congress recesses in August is already low. This means that the regulatory benefits previously anticipated by the market may continue to be delayed, and the crypto industry will continue to face policy uncertainty in the short term.
The slowdown in bill progress is not due to changes in the direction of digital asset regulation, but rather because the two parties still have significant disagreements over certain provisions.
Currently, the controversy mainly centers on issues such as digital asset ethics clauses, division of enforcement authority, and the arrangement of stablecoin-related benefits. Democrats believe the existing constraints are insufficient, while Republicans hope to quickly establish a unified regulatory framework for digital assets, and both sides are still seeking a compromise that is acceptable.
Meanwhile, the banking sector has also expressed concerns about certain stablecoin provisions, believing that funds may further flow into the stablecoin system, putting pressure on traditional bank deposits and making bill coordination even more complicated.
From market performance, investors have already begun repricing.
Previously, the market generally believed CLARITY would be rapidly implemented this year, but now, as the time window keeps shrinking, expectations for regulatory benefits to materialize have clearly cooled. For mainstream crypto assets like $BTC and $ETH, this means a short-term lack of new policy catalysts, and market sentiment may continue to be affected.
However, I believe the CLARITY extension does not mean a reversal in U.S. regulatory direction.
Whether legislation is completed this year or next, the overall direction of establishing a digital asset regulatory system in the U.S. remains unchanged. More and more institutional funds are entering the crypto market, and traditional financial institutions are continuously advancing their deployment of tokenized assets, stablecoins, and digital asset services. It is only a matter of time before the regulatory framework is fully implemented.
For investors, the short-term focus is on whether the bill can still receive new voting arrangements and whether both parties can achieve a breakthrough before the recess; What deserves more long-term attention is whether, after increased regulatory certainty in the U.S., more institutional funds will be attracted to the market.
Therefore, the CLARITY Act does not truly affect the long-term value of $BTC, but rather market sentiment and the pace of funding.
Regulation can be postponed, but the trend toward industry compliance remains unchanged. What truly determines the next round will still be global liquidity, institutional capital inflows, and long-term capital allocation after regulatory frameworks are finally implemented.
$LAB 韩国养老金终于在 7 月买回韩股。
据韩国交易所数据，截至 7 月 24 日，韩国养老基金净买入韩股 684 亿韩元，这是今年首次转为净买入，此前连续 10 周站在卖方。
买入还集中在 SK 海力士。市场前几周反复交易「国民年金将抛售 74 万亿韩元」的恐慌，结果再平衡窗口打开后，机构反而在回撤中接回芯片股。
我觉得有意思的地方在这里：资金态度已经从「调仓」变成了「低位接回」。
空头也有道理，684 亿韩元放在 KOSPI 体量里并不大，单月转为净买入不能证明趋势反转。接下来只看两个数字：8 月是否继续净买入，SK 海力士是否仍是第一买入方向。
胖友们，机构敢接飞刀，不代表刀已经落地。
#韩国股市 #韩股 #SK海力士⚡ $PIEVERSE Deep Analysis: Opportunities and Risks from a Bearish Perspective
1. Market Overview
$PIEVERSE experienced intense volatility within the 15-minute timeframe, currently quoted at 0.7474 USDT, with a daily increase of up to 16.39%. Recent highs reached 0.9929, lows at 0.6216, and the price remains in a wide oscillation range. Trading volume is 359,952,000, significantly below average levels, indicating insufficient capital follow-through.
2. Technical Diagnosis
Moving Average Signals: MA(7)=0.7760, MA(30)=0.8785, short-term moving average crossing below the long-term moving average, indicating a weak trend.
Candlestick Pattern: Surge followed by a pullback, a typical "false breakout" pattern, indicating heavy selling pressure above.
RSI Indicators: 13.23, 25.24, 39.08, in a severe oversold zone, short-term technical rebound possible, but overall momentum is weak.
Volatility: High volatility, short-term trading risk is extremely high.
3. Macro and Sentiment Analysis
Market Sentiment: Evident panic selling, investor confidence is low.
External Environment: US Dollar Index stable, risk appetite declining, capital remains cautious toward high-volatility assets.
4. Trader’s Practical Viewpoint
I established a short position at 0.812 USDT, currently with an unrealized profit of 97.59%. This operation is based on the following logic:
Clear surge and pullback signal: price rapidly rose then quickly fell, showing heavy selling pressure above.
Insufficient volume: the rise lacks capital support, high probability of a false breakout.
Bearish sentiment: under panic, capital tends to flow out rather than in.
The profit from this short position confirms that risks and opportunities coexist during high volatility phases.
5. Risk Warning
Although RSI is oversold, there is a risk of falling into an "oversold trap" with further downside possible.
Insufficient volume, rebound lacks capital support.
Short-term volatility is intense, false rebounds are likely.
6. Strategy Suggestions
Short-term operations: participate cautiously; if trading rebounds, strictly set stop-loss (recommended stop-loss below 0.72).
Mid-term layout: wait for price stabilization accompanied by increased volume before considering entry.
Risk control: position size should not exceed 20% of total capital to avoid heavy exposure during high volatility phases.
📌 Summary: The current trend of $PIEVERSE is full of uncertainty, with possibilities for short-term rebounds as well as risks of further declines. My short position has already achieved significant unrealized profits, but this does not mean the market will continue to fall. For traders, this is a phase where "panic and opportunity coexist," with key focus on position management and discipline execution. 1. Real-time Price (July 26, 22:40) • Current price: $1886, 24-hour increase about +1.3%, intraday fluctuation range 1860–$1898, overall slight rebound • 24-hour turnover about $10.16 billion, volume down nearly 60% from the 30-day average, market trading sentiment is sluggish, with mostly bulls and bears taking a wait-and-see approach • Market cap about $230.3 billion, all-time high $4948, currently retraced over 62% from the high, still in the medium- to long-term bear market range • Up 2.98% over the past 7 days, rebound 21% over the past 30 days, overall decline over the past year over 50%, indicating a technical recovery after oversold conditions II. Core Drivers of Short-Term Gains (Reasons for Today's Rebound) 1. Marginal easing of geopolitical risks: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East have eased, diplomatic talks between Iran and Oman have signaled easing, global risk appetite has slightly restored, and BTC and ETH have led all cryptocurrencies to rise slightly. As long as the Middle East conflict does not escalate, risk assets will remain weak and oscillating during recovery. 2. Institutional funds provide structural support: Large asset management firms recently staked ETH worth $184 million; Bitmine continues to hoard coins, with total holdings approaching 5% of circulating supply; US spot ETH staking ETFs returned to net capital inflows in July, indicating that institutional long-term allocation needs have not completely disappeared. 3. On-chain circulating supply continues to tighten: 33.56% of circulating ETH across the network is staked and locked and cannot be traded; The number of staking queues far exceeds exits, reducing supply from the bottom to slow selling pressure,Berachain盘面在PoL Next升级启动后出现放量波动，$BERA价格短线快速拉升，市场资金正围绕底层经济模型变更进行重新定价。
BGT机制退役并转向WBERA结算，这一变动直接改变了链上激励的分配逻辑，降低了流动性参与的准入门槛。
原有的老矿工群体面临激励模式的结构性调整，这种利益分配的重构引发了市场对长期锁仓意愿的博弈。
若后续新机制能有效驱动TVL显著增长，流动性的释放将为价格提供支撑，反之若矿工群体因激励变动流出，则可能加剧抛压风险。
市场目前的买入情绪依赖于对WBERA结算带来的流动性溢价预期，若后续盘面无法站稳当前区间，则说明市场对新机制的共识尚未达成。
观察未来几天链上TVL的变化趋势，这是验证本次经济模型升级能否转化为实际资产沉淀的关键指标。
#参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？ #三星Galaxy钱包将原生支持稳定币 #SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧Starship's 13th Test Flight Success: What SPCX Truly Wants to Deliver Is More Than Just One Launch'
On July 24, SpaceX completed Starship's 13th comprehensive flight test. According to the AP live report, the rocket launched from Texas, releasing 20 Starlink V3 satellites for the first time; The spacecraft then completed a soft splash in the Indian Ocean. The incident occurred on July 24, with related reports released between July 24 and 25.
The value of this mission lies in Starship's first time advancing the "next-generation Starlink carrier" from simulated payloads to real satellite testing. Twenty V3 satellites were released at an altitude of about 200 kilometers and completed laser, radio communication, and data return within about 20 minutes before reentry. But it's important to clarify: this is a suborbital test, the satellite was suborbitally burned afterward, and it did not directly become new operational capacity; The booster also descended too quickly on the return trip due to insufficient restart of the engine. A successful test flight reduced some engineering uncertainties, but that does not mean the commercialization pace has been set.
The core cash flow behind SPCX still mainly comes from Starlink. SpaceX disclosed to the SEC that as of March 31, it had about 9,600 in-orbit broadband and mobile satellites and 10.3 million Starlink subscribers; In the first quarter, the connectivity business generated $3.257 billion in revenue and operating profit of $1.188 billion. In comparison, the aerospace business had $619 million in revenue and $662 million in operating losses during the same period, and paid Starship $930 million in R&D expenses. In other words, Starship is more like high-investment infrastructure in the short term, and its long-term value depends on whether it can significantly reduce launch costs, expand V3 deployment speed, and ultimately translate into subscriptions and enterprise revenue.
The next more verifiable milestone is the Q2 results on August 4. The market will focus on Starlink user growth, connectivity business profit margins, Starship R&D, and capital expenditure, not just the launch screen. Negative risks include repeated testing schedules, regulatory and spectrum constraints, massive investments, and the sensitivity of high valuations to the speed of growth realization.
Document verification: SpaceX Flight 13 materials, SEC disclosures, SpaceX investor relations announcements, and cross-reconciled with AP reports on July 24.比特币流通层 38点细分观察指标
第零原则：比特币产权测试（硬过滤）
1. 单方退出：用户能否不依赖第三方强制取回资产？
2. 最终性继承：L2最终性是否锚定BTC PoW而非自身共识？
3. 桥接类型：BitVM / Rollup / 多签 / MPC？信任假设是什么？
4. 多签控制权：签名者分布是否足够分散？是否存在单方控制风险？
5. 欺诈证明：欺诈证明是否真实存在且可工作？
6. 提款验证：提款机制是否经过市场验证（主网运行>6个月）？
7. L1数据锚定：状态数据是否发布到Bitcoin L1，还是仅存储在链下DA层？
8. L1状态恢复：节点是否可以仅凭L1上的数据完全恢复全网状态？
淘汰标准：1-8项有任何一项不达标，直接淘汰。
第一层：产业定位
9. 长期增长赛道：是否属于BTC金融体系核心赛道？TAM是否足够大？
10. 关键基础设施位置：属于支付/流通/清算/智能合约层？是底层基础设施吗？
11. 不可替代性：替代方案是否存在？用户/开发者迁移成本多高？
第二层：网络规模
12. BTC资产规模：TVL绝对值、增长率、锁仓地址分布、巨鲸集中度
13. BTC结算规模：年结算金额、BTC周转率、日交易金额、BTC本位交易量
14. 原生资产生态：BTC原生资产数量、稳定币规模、RWA规模、高质量资产占比、流动性深度
第三层：安全体系
15. BTC安全继承：是否继承BTC PoW？最终性来源？是否依赖多签/PoS？
16. 抗攻击能力：提款时间、欺诈证明成熟度、历史安全事故、审计情况
17. 去中心化程度：节点数量与分布、多客户端实现、开源程度、治理结构
18. 比特币价值观一致性：是否支持自托管、抗审查、开放网络？团队长期行为？
19. 索引器与资产状态安全：资产验证由谁完成？索引器是否开源？是否存在多个独立实现且交叉验证一致？是否有分布式索引器路线图？
第四层：网络效应
20. 基础设施接入：钱包/硬件钱包/SDK/API/浏览器/Indexer的接入广度
21. 开发者生态：GitHub活跃度、开发者数量、Commit数量、原生DApp数量、开发者留存率
22. 应用生态与互操作：DEX/借贷/稳定币/支付/AI Agent/RWA等应用；与Lightning/其他L2/主网的互通程度
第五层：商业模式
23. 真实收入：协议收入规模、BTC/稳定币/外部收入占比、收入增长率
24. 节点经济健康度：节点收益率、手续费收入占比、通胀占比、安全预算与节点ROI
第六层：价值捕获
25. Token价值捕获：Gas需求、手续费分配、回购销毁/质押收益、Token需求增长
26. 价值回流BTC生态：收益流向BTC持有人/节点？MEV流失？Sequencer价值流向？
27. 排序器去中心化：排序器是单一/POA/无许可？MEV利润归谁？用户能否绕过排序器？
第七层：需求验证
28. 真实需求：是否解决BTC支付/流通/借贷/稳定币？是否创造新的金融需求？
29. 用户体验：是否只需BTC即可使用？是否必须购买平台Token？操作步骤、钱包兼容性？
30. 真实采用：非补贴用户增长、DAU/MAU、留存率、商业客户数量、机构业务、剔除刷量后的交易量
31. 穿越周期能力：熊市开发活跃度、节点/用户留存率、牛熊表现、安全恢复能力、存续时间
32. 提款资本效率：提款最终性时间（即时/1小时/24小时/7天）？是否有即时提款流动性池？
第八层：原生资产验证与可编程性
33. 资产验证范式：资产状态由谁验证（Indexer/客户端/BitVM2 L1验证）？
34. 资产协议覆盖广度：是否支持Ordinals/Runes/BRC20/ORDX/RGB/Taproot Assets等？
35. 智能合约可编程性深度：支持哪些合约类型（模板/EVM/Agent）？合约能否直接操作UTXO？
36. 成熟DeFi范式可迁移性：是否支持AMM/Curve/Aave/Compound/MakerDAO等范式？是否直接操作BTC原生资产？
37. 合约生态实际采用：已部署合约数量及类型、真实交易量和用户数、开发者工具链完整度
38. 数据可用性与状态恢复：数据存储由谁负责？用户是否必须自行备份？项目方停运后能否独立恢复？
五个横向观察维度
维度一：竞争优势
核心技术优势、用户增长速度、网络效应、流动性优势、品牌影响力、护城河是否持续扩大
维度二：标准制定能力
钱包标准/API标准/支付标准/Token标准/开发标准、行业采用率
维度三：协议中立性
是否支持所有BTC资产？是否开放API？是否兼容其他L2/Lightning？是否保持开放生态？
维度四：反脆弱性
熊市表现、监管压力、安全攻击后恢复、社区自组织能力、开发持续性、网络是否越挫越强
维度五：互操作性广度
是否支持信任最小化的BTC跨L2转移？While reviewing the Meme sector that evening, I suddenly thought of a question: In the next bull market, can DOGE replicate the frenzied rally of 2021?
I feel the answer may not be as simple as before.
Dogecoin's biggest feature in 2021 is its highly concentrated narrative.
At that time, there were few options in the entire Meme market, and a large amount of retail funds were concentrated in DOGE. A single Musk's move often becomes a trigger for short-term capital flow, sometimes causing significant intraday fluctuations.
At that stage, DOGE carried very strong emotional value.
But now the market environment has changed.
In the past year, even when Musk occasionally mentioned DOGE, the market reaction was less exaggerated than before; more often, it was just a short-term surge, then quickly returned to its original trend.
I don't think this is simply a "decline in Musk's influence," but more like the market maturing and funds starting to disperse.
The competition in the meme track is far fiercer now than in 2021.
In the past, when people mentioned Meme, their first thought was probably DOGE; But now, a large number of new projects emerge on-chain every day, and the Solana ecosystem keeps giving birth to new meme assets, with brands like PEPE and BONK attracting significant attention.
The liquidity pool remains the same, but with more choices, DOGE naturally finds it hard to dominate as a single player as before.
Another once very captivating story is "DOGE on Mars."
At the time, many believed that with the development of Musk and SpaceX, Dogecoin could become some kind of space payment method in the future, and this imaginative space brought strong market sentiment to DOGE.
But after a few years, people have gradually realized that there is still a long way between grand narratives and actual implementation.
Stories can drive emotions, but ultimately, it depends on whether there are new use cases and sustained funding.
In my own view, DOGE is not without opportunities.
It still maintains extremely high brand recognition, a massive community base, and a very strong historical position among meme coins.
But to replicate the 2021 gains, new catalysts may be needed, rather than just a single shout or an old story.
In the next bull market, the meme rally is very likely to persist, but funds will become more selective. In the past, "fame means price increases," but in the future, more emphasis may be placed on community activity, capital flows, and the duration of market heat.
So for DOGE, I wouldn't simply judge it has no chance, nor do I expect it to easily repeat the past.
The advantage of established memes is strong consensus, but their disadvantage is that their growth potential has already been fully recognized by the market. What truly determines the trend going forward is whether there are new stories, new capital, and new application expectations. $OKB $DOGE $KAITO rose over 26% in 24 hours—Can InfoFi hype turn into token demand?
According to OKX spot market data, as of 22:00 Beijing time on July 26, 2026, KAITO/USDT was trading at about 1.2093 USDT, up about 26.5% in 24 hours, with a high of 1.2318 USDT and a low of 0.9194 USDT, and a trading volume of about 4.477 million USDT. Currently, no public announcement alone explains this round of rally; price performance is more appropriate to first see as funds retrading AI and attention economy narratives.
Kaito is not just an "AI search tool."
Kaito Pro is responsible for organizing encrypted information such as social media, research, governance forums, news, and podcasts, and quantifies projects and narratives in Mindshare; Kaito Studio uses this data for brand-creator matching, campaign execution, and performance attribution; Capital Launchpad attempts to allocate project quotas based on social reputation, on-chain behavior, and historical participation; Mindshare Arena turns brand, trend, and personality attention into a predictable market.
The common logic of this product is to turn previously vague attention into data that can be measured, distributed, and traded.
The demand is real, the project team needs to decide who to allocate the budget to, the traders need to identify narrative rotations, and creators want their influence to be determined more than just the number of followers. Kaito officially disclosed that Kaito Pro has already achieved profitability and serves over 500 investment, marketing, and growth teams; These data can somewhat indicate the direction of commercialization.
Once attention is tied to rewards, participants study scoring rules, and content quantity, homogeneous expression, and account manipulation can all increase. Kaito's early Yaps "post to earn" program ended in January 2026, with the official reason cited as X revoking reward API access. InfoFi can redesign allocation rules but is still subject to changes in social platform data permissions and policies.
KAITO currently serves as an ecosystem trading medium, governance, and staking. Of the official token distribution, 56.67% is allocated to the community and ecosystem, 25% to core contributors, and 8.3% to early investors. Documenting the purpose does not mean the value has been transmitted: current official documentation does not state that Kaito Pro revenue will automatically be distributed to KAITO holders, nor does it disclose a fixed buyback or burn mechanism directly linked to income.
Whether this wave of price can be caught by InfoFi business depends on whether Kaito Pro's paying customers and revenue can grow, whether Studio can generate a budget for recurring activities, whether Launchpad and Mindshare Arena continue to generate usage, and whether staking, governance, and platform transactions can bring stable demand for KAITO.
Kaito is trying to price attention. KAITO also aims to prove that this attention can accumulate into sustained revenue and token demand, not just higher scores on the leaderboard.#Majority Leader Says CLARITY Unlikely to Pass Before Recess
I'm Brother Ci, and the CLARITY bill is basically dead.
Senate Majority Leader Thune personally stated that the likelihood of passing before the August recess is low. Bloomberg directly pointed out the core issue: about $1.4 billion in gains Trump made through crypto businesses has become the biggest obstacle to the bill's passage. The approval rate surged to 82% earlier this year, but the prediction market now shows only about one-third. Democrats and consumer rights groups criticize the bill for insufficient provisions, with enforcement power solely held by the Department of Justice, excluding oversight by state attorneys general; ethical restrictions do not cover indirect holdings and do not constrain officials' children; and the provisions will automatically expire on January 20, 2029. All three are major flaws, making consensus difficult in the short term.
Compromise efforts continue, with Gallego and Tillis studying proposals, and the banking sector opposing the stablecoin yield provisions. But the time window is gone; the August 7 recess is a hard deadline, and the procedural process itself takes several days, so the actual cutoff is July 30. Missing the recess risks a government shutdown in September, followed by the election season, which will greatly increase the difficulty of passage.
Impact on BTC: In the short term, the disappointment is already reflected in the price. BTC has fallen from above 66,000 to around 64,000. The bill's shelving means regulatory uncertainty continues, slowing institutional allocation pace. But Grayscale research head Zach Pandl's judgment remains valid: the BTC bear market bottom may have formed, and price will be driven by real interest rates and economic growth. ETFs have seen net inflows for several consecutive days, with institutions continuously buying in the 64,000 to 65,000 range.
The failure of the CLARITY bill has limited impact on BTC's long-term narrative; BTC does not live or die by a single U.S. congressional bill. The value of non-sovereign assets comes from computing power and consensus, not Washington's approval.
Brother Ci is done. Hold your positions, don't get shaken out by political games. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $DOGE 📊 $SNDK 爆仓速览
爆仓规模
· 1小时：$7.48万
· 4小时：$8.20万
· 12小时：$12.81万
· 24小时：$15.89万
多空分布
周期 多头爆仓 空头爆仓 多头占比
1h $0 $7.48万 0%
4h $6,804.57 $7.52万 8.3%
12h $8,867.71 $11.92万 6.9%
24h $3.06万 $12.83万 19.3%
多空解读
各周期空头爆仓碾压多头（24小时空头占80.7%），为持续逼空上涨行情。1小时空头爆仓占100%，开盘即极端逼空；12小时空头占比高达93.1%，为全天最剧烈逼空窗口；24小时多头虽有反击，但空头仍占绝对主导。最终胜出方：多头——空头连续遭大规模清算，价格持续强势上行。
时间分布
· 1小时占24小时的 47.1%
· 4小时占24小时的 51.6%
· 12小时占24小时的 80.6%
爆仓极端集中于12小时周期（超八成），说明逼空主升浪在12小时内集中爆发；24小时总量与12小时基本持平，后12小时增量有限。当前处于逼空行情高位尾声阶段，空头遭重创，但需警惕获利回吐压力。
一句话解读
$SNDK 24小时空头爆仓$12.83万占总量80.7%，12小时集中爆发逼空主升浪，多头完胜。
🔥 市场风向标 | 7月24日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：AI的代价、监管的搁浅，以及地缘悬崖边的喘息。
📊 谷歌与特斯拉：AI盛宴的“账单”来了
两份财报揭开了AI叙事的残酷真相。
谷歌超预期但代价沉重：总营收1198亿美元，同比增长24%；谷歌云收入247.7亿美元，同比暴涨82%。然而，资本开支高达449亿美元，自由现金流首次转负至-59亿美元。盘后一度跌近5%。
特斯拉增收不增利：营收282.4亿美元，同比增长26%；但营业利润仅3.98亿美元，同比暴跌57%，运营利润率只剩1.4%。自由现金流两年多来首次转负。盘后跌超4%。
信号：谷歌的AI已在云业务中形成收入闭环；而特斯拉的Robotaxi和Optimus仍停留在“故事”阶段。市场正在惩罚只有概念、没有现金流的AI叙事。
📜 CLARITY法案搁浅：14亿美元的伦理困局
加密行业的监管希望正在消散。参议院共和党虽释放更新文本并加入道德条款，但7名民主党参议员集体否决。参议院多数党领袖图恩明确表示，法案大概率无法在8月7日休会前通过。
根本障碍：特朗普通过加密业务获得的约14亿美元收益成为最大阻力。民主党要求更严格的伦理条款，防止总统在其政府监管下继续从加密行业获利。
Polymarket预测市场显示，年内通过概率已从80%以上骤降至37%。错过8月窗口，拖入秋季选举，2026年通过可能性将大幅下降。
🚢 美军暂停空袭：地缘悬崖边的喘息
当地时间7月25日，特朗普下令美军当天不要对伊朗发动新空袭，结束了此前连续13天的每日打击行动。
暂停空袭前数小时，阿曼代表团已抵达德黑兰，就重启霍尔木兹海峡通航展开谈判，据称已取得进展。布伦特原油此前已突破100美元/桶，若谈判取得突破，油价有望回落。
信号：这是一次战术性暂停——为外交留空间，但美军恢复打击的预案仍在准备中。
💎 总结
三件事勾勒出当下市场的核心矛盾：AI的账单正在到来——谷歌和特斯拉用史上首次负现金流告诉市场，AI烧得比想象中更快；监管的窗口正在关闭——14亿美元的伦理困局让CLARITY法案年内通过希望渺茫；而地缘的喘息能持续多久，取决于阿曼斡旋的成败。#财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？
#多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过
#美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展 Traditional futures moving 24/7 was originally seen as an irreversible trend. However, the CFTC recently extended the comment deadline by 30 days, postponing it to August 26. This is not simply "slowing down approvals," but rather asking: After the market never closes, who guarantees the risk system will never go offline? On July 23, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced an extension of the public comment period for two issues: first, the extension of standard futures contracts to 24/7 trading; Second, design perpetual contracts for energy commodities that can be delivered physically or stored. The regulator stated that this extension was due to requests from commentators and added several new issues. The discussion, which was originally close to ending, was postponed to August 26. ## Trading can go on endlessly, but clearing can't rely solely on "scheduling one extra shift." On the surface, 24/7 is just extending trading hours from weekdays to weekends. In fact, it will simultaneously change four systems: - Exchanges need to continuously match and monitor abnormal orders; - The clearing institution needs to calculate margin and default risk in real time; - Brokers need to continue handling client funds during bank breaks; - Market makers need to continue providing bilateral quotes amid weekend news shocks. The crypto market has proven that weekends are not always risk-free. Conversely, when bank payments, fiat deposits, and some institutional risk control teams are in a low-response state, market depth may decrease, and a single sell order can cause a greater price shock. If this mechanism were replicated to physically deliverable assets like crude oil, the problem would become even more complicated. Perpetual contracts do not