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PLTR从7日低点反弹近40%，但真正让市场屏息的不是涨幅，是一条巨鲸正在用天量挂单“包围”这个标的。 据TradingBeats监测，Hyperliquid上的PLTR合约现报172.32美元，较近7日低点123.74美元累计反弹39.3%，24小时成交额约700万美元，未平仓合约价值约3398.6万美元。而一名巨鲸的现有仓位已占全平台OI的39%，挂单规模更是相当于OI的78%。 这名巨鲸是目前PLTR最大的空头（0x4e2）。他以10倍逐仓做空7.83万份PLTR，仓位价值约1350万美元，均价169.46美元——随着价格反弹，这个仓位已浮亏约22.4万美元，亏损幅度达-16.9%，清算价187.08美元，距现价约8.6%。 但真正震撼的是他围绕空仓设置的三层订单矩阵，总名义金额高达2660万美元： 第一层（172美元附近）：24笔“仅减仓”买单，计划回补5845.7份空单，名义金额约100.6万美元。 第二层（167.3至171.41美元）：49笔买单，计划买入10.12万份PLTR，名义金额约1700.2万美元，加权挂单价约167.98美元。若全部成交，不仅会平掉剩余空仓，还# Melihat Bisnis Minuman dengan Kacamata yang Berbeda: Capital Allocation
Dalam video Timothy Ronald Show, Lukmanul Hakim, pengusaha berusia 20 tahun asal Tangerang, menceritakan perjalanan bisnisnya setelah berhasil melunasi utang keluarga Rp90 juta dan mengumpulkan Rp100 juta pertamanya.
Lukman menjalankan bisnis minuman kekinian berbahan dasar jagung yang telah berjalan sekitar dua tahun. Kini, usahanya sudah memiliki tiga cabang di Kabupaten Tangerang dengan rata-rata omzet sekitar Rp50 juta per bulan.
Produk tersebut bukan sekadar es jagung biasa. Jagung dimodifikasi dengan maizena, susu kental manis, serta berbagai topping seperti keju, Oreo, dan es krim untuk mengikuti tren pasar.
Di luar bisnis, Lukman juga memiliki dana darurat Rp50 juta, uang tunai Rp28,5 juta untuk ekspansi, Bitcoin sekitar Rp3,7 juta, dan Ethereum Rp7,2 juta.
Kondisi ini membuatnya harus menentukan apakah laba bisnis sebaiknya kembali diputar atau dialihkan ke investasi crypto.
Jika dilihat dari sisi capital allocation, jawabannya bergantung pada potensi imbal hasil. Dengan modal sekitar Rp10 juta-Rp15 juta per cabang, ekspansi bisnis masih menawarkan ruang pertumbuhan yang jauh lebih besar.
Tiga cabang yang sudah berjalan juga menunjukkan sistem bisnisnya dapat direplikasi. Bahkan, tren produk bisa berubah tanpa harus membangun bisnis dari awal karena operasional cabang tetap dapat digunakan untuk produk minuman lain.
Karena itu, selama bisnis masih mampu memberikan pertumbuhan tinggi, laba dinilai lebih efektif digunakan untuk memperbesar bisnis. Investasi ke aset lain baru menjadi pilihan ketika peluang ekspansi mulai terbatas.
Pada akhirnya, menjadi pengusaha bukan sekadar soal menghasilkan omzet besar. Tantangan sebenarnya adalah menentukan ke mana setiap rupiah laba harus dialokasikan agar modal yang sama terus menghasilkan pertumbuhan.🧠 $ETH Has a Different Kind of Scarcity
Bitcoin’s strength comes from limited supply.
Ethereum’s scarcity comes from limited blockspace and growing demand for settlement.
As stablecoins, DeFi, capital, and tokenized assets increase activity on Ethereum, the network becomes more valuable and economically important.
Price may not react immediately, but sustained demand for blockspace matters over the long term.
Watch network activity first, narrative second. 📊
#AIMemorySelloffEases
#CPIToResetFedBets
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #AIMemorySelloffEases AI-related memory stocks are showing signs of recovery after a sharp correction driven by demanding valuations, capacity concerns and cautious corporate guidance. On August 10, South Korean semiconductor leaders including SK hynix and Samsung Electronics rebounded as leveraged selling pressure appeared to ease. Investors are also looking ahead to more detailed shareholder-return plans, which could help restore confidence after the sector’s rapid AI-driven expansion created concerns about excessive spending.
The fundamental demand story remains attractive because high-bandwidth memory and advanced storage are essential for AI accelerators and data centers. Nevertheless, competition is becoming more important. China’s CXMT is making progress in memory technology, and Apple has reportedly considered its chips as an alternative supply source. In my view, the rebound can continue if AI orders translate into stronger cash flow and disciplined capital allocation. If manufacturers expand capacity too aggressively, however, future oversupply could weaken pricing. Investors should watch inventory levels, HBM contracts and management commentary instead of relying only on the broader AI narrative. [2026.8.10] Approach
Let's first look at the whale address section in the chart. Around Friday, it seems the chain has started to return to normal. As mentioned before, due to a well-known cold wallet crisis, a massive token transfer movement has started on-chain, especially small and medium investors, who have temporarily moved their assets to exchanges to avoid risk, resulting in abnormal on-chain data. Looking at data from the past three days, the impact has significantly weakened, and the values have temporarily returned to previous levels. So, the few hundred net inflows over the weekend, combined with the price temporarily stabilizing at a rebound high, also correspond. At least for now, there is no clear risk to see.
On the spot ETF side, last week saw a net inflow of $854 million, the strongest weekly performance since mid-April, completely reversing the previous eight-week outflow trend. All five trading days saw positive inflows. BlackRock IBIT was the absolute main force. Weekly net inflow was $694 million, accounting for 81% of total weekly inflows. But strangely, while some capital may have returned, prices have reacted lukewarmly. What is going on? I can only say that based solely on this data, only if the net inflow trend continues can selling pressure gradually be digested, accumulating strength for future breakouts.
Back to the market, based on the current trend, here are a few of my views:
1. The most critical resistance above is the 65,500 level. Only if the price effectively breaks through here can the upward space open upward, giving a chance to see the 66,500 level or even a new high. But if the price encounters resistance and falls instead of rising, it depends on how it will fall. Whether this is a normal adjustment or a turnaround downward is currently unclear. All I can say is, is the key support below effective? For example, the key support range I consider is [63,800-64,100]. If the price does not choose an upward breakout but instead only surges higher, then then continues to adjust downward, then we observe whether the price can effectively stop falling within that support range. Of course, some may wonder, how can you be sure that a downward price adjustment will definitely fall within this key support range? I'm not sure, but based on current price action, I believe this is highly probable, as long as the price fails to break upward.
2. If the breakout fails, can you go short? If the breakout fails, theoretically, you can take your stop-loss light position to try shorting. Note, this is just a suggestion to try, not to stubbornly go short. Also, be wary of the main funds inserting and shaking out the 65,500 level.
In summary, this is for reference only. #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market stable? #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? 🚨 $SPCX — Is This a Trap?
SpaceX just jumped back to $133, gaining nearly 25% in two days right after 911.5M shares became eligible for sale.
The market expected an unlock-driven sell-off, with shorts heavily positioned. Instead, the price squeezed higher, forcing short covering and attracting fresh buyers.
But the key point remains: the unlocked supply hasn’t disappeared. More shares can still enter the market.
📉 My roadmap:
$105 → $125 bounce ✅
911M unlock ✅
Resistance retest 🔴
Below $100 ⏳
$77–$85 target 🎯
I’m not chasing the move at $133. I’m waiting for a potential panic sell-off before considering an entry around $85.
The unlock risk may not be over yet. 👀
#CPIToResetFedBets
#AIMemorySelloffEases
#SpaceXShortCovering $SPCX
SPCX空头狩猎行动详解。
8月6日，spcx千亿解禁，股价企稳并于8月7日大涨超15%。
这是一场玩玩全全针对空头的狩猎。
事情逻辑：
1. 近千亿市值的限售股解禁，全市场一致预判会迎来巨额抛压，大量空头仓位堆积；
2. 8 月 5 日股价已经因为财报利空暴跌‑13.61%，空头仓位进一步增加；
3. 8月7日，市场反身性上演教科书级别的逼空，解禁当天非但没有下跌，反而大涨 +6.14%，依靠拉升去清算上方堆积的空头订单；
初始流通盘仅有 6.39 亿股，本次解禁 9.115 亿股，解禁筹码比 IPO 全部流通盘还要多出 42%，流通筹码直接翻倍，是典型的利空共识催生逼空行情。
但是，这并不是反转，而且成本与收益的精心计算。
当前140-150之间，160以上都有大量流动性真空区间。意味着主力如果要吃掉150到160之间以及180以上的流动性，先要付出巨额成本吃掉140到150之间以及160要180之间的抛压，目前看来这并不是一笔值得去做的动作。这里，下个判断，本次价格反弹，大概率到不了160。$ETH 、$SOL 都看多，为什么不能各开一份满风险仓？很多人的“分仓”其实是假分散
假设账户有10000U，你制定规则：每笔交易最多亏损2%，也就是200U。于是你开$BTC 多单，最大风险200U；ETH多单，再给200U；SOL多单，再给200U。看起来每笔都严格执行2%风控，实际上如果三笔交易背后的逻辑都是“加密市场Risk-On”，一次宏观利空可能让三笔同时止损，你真正承担的是接近6%的单事件风险。
这也是仓位管理里经常被忽略的概念：相关性风险。
近期市场就很适合观察这种结构。8月9日的市场数据显示，BTC、ETH表现偏弱时，SOL却保持了更明显的相对强势。 这说明短周期里三个资产可以产生分化，但到了真正的系统性Risk-Off阶段，相关性又可能迅速上升。
所以我现在更倾向按照“交易逻辑”而不是“币种数量”分仓。例如已经有BTC多单，再开ETH多单时，不应该机械地重新给完整2%风险额度；如果继续开SOL多单，则要把BTC+ETH+SOL视为一个多头组合。
比较简单的方法是设置两层上限：**单笔最大亏损1%-2%，同方向高相关组合最大亏损3%-4%。**这样即使三个止损同时触发，也不会因为一次市场事件直接打掉账户的大块本金。
SOL近期还有一个值得关注的基本面变量：社区披露的周度信息显示，网络单周非投票交易量达到约10.1亿笔，同时出现代币化基金、稳定币和股票代币相关进展。 这类基本面可以作为观察SOL相对强弱的理由，但不能成为放大杠杆的理由。
风险提示：**真正的分散不是“我买了三个币”，而是出现同一个利空时，这三个仓位不会一起死。BTC、ETH、SOL三个多单很多时候不是三笔交易，而是一笔Risk-On交易拆成了三份。
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The Bitcoin Red Team announced allocating over $20,000 using AI models such as Kimi K3 and GPT Sol to audit 150 repositories, uncovering over a dozen critical vulnerabilities. Although vulnerability disclosures temporarily induce market caution, executing private bug submissions prevents panic selling across spot order books. Bitcoin spot prices maintain a positive sideways technical consolidation baseline around established support levels. Proactive vulnerability patching reinforces market confidence in multi-year ecosystem expansion. Please do your own research carefully before making any transactions (DYOR). $BTC one $50.9m Hyperliquid short cannot sustain a BTC breakout. the venue liquidates 20% first, sending about $10.2m of buy flow into its perp book. that is 0.02% of BTC futures OI. it can clear thin local asks, but buyers elsewhere have to keep buying for the move to hold.#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn Zero-sum stranglement by monopolists: The gross profit battle behind TSMC's 60 billion yuan capital expenditure
July revenue surged by as much as 44.7% year-on-year, combined with the 2026 full-year capital expenditure ceiling being forcibly pushed to a record $64 billion. This is the absolute dominance shown by semiconductor foundry giant TSMC in early August this year. With 3nm advanced process wafer capacity sprinting toward 180,000 wafers per month in the fourth quarter, and 2nm process capacity being pre-ordered by AI giants like NVIDIA and Apple, global capital is cheering for this unprecedented AI computing power arms race. This appears to be the ultimate feast for the foundry kings, with TSMC seemingly firmly controlling pricing power in the AI era.
However, behind this gleaming ledger of excess sales, a profit-sharing battle among the industry's top monopolists presents a completely different, cold mirror.
Although TSMC holds an absolute monopoly in the foundry sector, its upstream stands an irreplaceable monopoly giant holding core production bottlenecks—lithography machine giant ASML.
Due to the global dependence on advanced lithography equipment for advanced logic chip production, ASML began pushing price increases for its new generation of low-numerical aperture EUV lithography machines starting in August this year. With orders booked through 2027 and annual revenue forecasts raised to 45 billion euros, ASML is clearly eager to convert its equipment monopoly into higher profit shares. This has led TSMC to face the awkward situation of increasing its capital expenditure by $64 billion while facing the awkward situation of upstream hardware taxes eroding its own profit margins.
In response to ASML's forced price increase, TSMC unusually expressed strong resistance and refusal.
This is the most ironic aspect of this AI gold explosion. Even if you have reached the top of the industry and control over 90% of the world's advanced computing power foundry, you still cannot escape the fate of passive tax payment in the face of upstream technology and machine monopolies.
To transfer this portion of profits passively handed over, TSMC is targeting its own customers.
In early August, there were frequent rumors in the industry that TSMC planned to forcibly raise the benchmark prices of advanced foundry nodes by 5% to 10% to smooth out the gross profit dilution caused by the ASMERCA tax. This means that the ultimate hardware tax on AI computing power is being passed down step by step through this zero-sum game among upstream giants. Nvidia, AMD, and even the ultimate tech buyers have become profit channels under this pricing power struggle.
As a long-term observer of the semiconductor industry, seeing this extreme tug-of-war in pricing power stirs a deep sense of alertness. During the gold rush frenzy, everyone thought shovel sellers were guaranteed winners, but the reality of business is that even shovel sellers are being ruthlessly extracted from profits by oligarchs who manufacture shovel machines.
In this game of capital spiral inflation, who is the real carnivore at the bottom who can laugh last?
In the coming months, I will focus on tracking two micro-level indicators reflecting supply chain profit distribution: one is whether TSMC's overall gross margin can stay above the 53% threshold after fully releasing 3nm capacity in Q4; the other is whether ASML's order backlog for high-numerical aperture EUV equipment will slow down temporarily under TSMC's strong resistance.
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? After falling to a 2 year low, the CDD (30-dma) is currently trending back up.
This indicates that long term holders are destroying UTXOs by moving $BTC that has been held for more than 6 months.
CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) is a metric that accounts for the number of days a UTXO was held before being spent. The longer it was held, the higher its CDD contribution, which allows us to gauge LTH activity. —
At first glance, this could suggest that LTHs are intensifying their movements and therefore their selling, since a large amount of LTH $BTC moving usually translates into increased sell pressure.
But this reading is biased by the Coldcard event, which pushed many LTHs to move their BTC in order to improve its security.
This is visible in LTH spent UTXOs, which spiked at the end of July, at the same time#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn 🔥热门交易员一句话看市场❮Q&A❯
今天我们邀请到的交易员是：
@赌神阿陈 👏感谢分享
Q：您经常关注AMD等美股科技公司的财报与AI估值，您认为这些信号会如何传导至加密市场？您会据此调整加密仓位吗？
原文🔗：https://oyidl.net/ul/bGndele
🎁今日发帖有奖：
➤今日跟帖Q：你会因为美股科技股涨跌,调整加密仓位吗?
➤关注本账号后，在#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 内参与今日问题跟帖问题发帖
➤发帖后点赞本帖文并评论区留言，会精选优质帖文送上随机交易礼包🎟️ 📊 8/10 Macro Daily — Quick Take
🌍 Geopolitics: Iran is moving forward with stricter Hormuz measures, while the U.S. appears more open to diplomacy and economic pressure. Israel’s stance remains unpredictable, so geopolitical risks haven’t disappeared—they’ve shifted toward diplomatic tension and economic pressure. Oil remains highly sensitive to headlines.
📈 Global Markets: Risk-on sentiment continues. S&P 500 closed at a record high, while Nasdaq led gains. AI and tech remain strong, with optical communications and semiconductors attracting capital.
🇯🇵🇰🇷 Asian markets also opened higher, though gains in Japan and Korea narrowed, suggesting some profit-taking and weaker momentum.
🔑 Bottom line: Markets are being supported by easing geopolitical risk premiums and strong AI/tech narratives, but both remain vulnerable. Watch oil prices, market volume, and geopolitical developments for the next major move.
#CPIToResetFedBets
#BerkshireStartsBuying
#OKXTraderVoices What if the long-awaited BTC crash never happened?
Everyone is waiting for the final drop, for $BTC to fall below 60,000, for that "perfect entry point." But my judgment is—this cycle probably doesn't need that dramatic crash at all.
---
The old script was simple: halving → retail FOMO → a major correction at the bottom of the → cycle.
But this time, the buyers are completely different—they're not looking for short-term investors with 10% volatility; they're asset allocators.
Since August, capital flows have continued to flow back without any significant net outflow. This structure is unlike any previous cycle. When you see allocation funds entering rather than speculative funds playing games, the logic of the entire bottom pattern changes.
$ETH is sending the same signal.
Many people are still waiting for ETH to fall below $1,800 before they can believe the bottom has arrived.
But the reality is: ETHA saw over $50 million in a single transaction last Monday, and Ethereum ETFs have recorded net inflows for five consecutive weeks.
These are not retail investors buying, but institutions continuously building positions.
I think the market is overlooking a key fact:
When the buyer itself has changed, using the chart from the previous cycle to predict the bottom of that cycle is itself a mistake.
Perhaps this bottom doesn't need that kind of drastic 'surrender bearish candlestick' at all.
Maybe it's another approach:
✅ Several weeks of sideways consolidation
✅ Gradual accumulation
✅ The slow return of liquidity
✅ Prices are slowly climbing, while most people are still waiting for a crash
The bottom doesn't have to be dramatic to truly exist.
It can be quiet, boring, and anxiety-inducing—but it works just as well.
By the time you finally confirm the "bottom is over," the price may already be 20% higher than your expected window.
Sometimes, the market simply won't give you the crash you want. It quietly leaves those hoping for a perfect entry behind 👀
---
Non-financial advice. Please do your own research and make your own decisions.
#DailyOrbit就业数据降温，让市场重新关注美联储下一步动作。
过去市场最大的矛盾，是经济强劲导致降息推迟。
而现在，如果就业继续放缓，美联储可能拥有更多政策空间。
但投资者需要明白：
降息并不一定代表经济变差，也可能代表通胀压力下降后的政策调整。
真正影响资产价格的是流动性方向。
如果CPI继续下降，市场可能提前交易宽松周期。
对于风险资产而言，这可能成为新的催化剂。
接下来，所有目光都会集中在通胀数据。
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 Market analysis sharing does not constitute investment advice. Last Friday, US stocks took advantage of the non-farm payroll failure to meet expectations, with the three major indices closing at new highs. The Nasdaq performed the strongest, and the market was trading expectations of a "Fed rate hike to cool down." Tonight is a wait-and-see window before the CPI, with no major data, so funds will not aggressively push the market aggressively. Overall, it tends to fluctuate to digest last week's gains. 🇺🇸 At the index level, pre-market futures showed slight divergence, with the Nasdaq relatively strong and the Dow performing quietly. Tonight, it is highly likely that after opening higher, there will be a fluctuating rebound, without unilateral sharp surges or drops. The market is currently awaiting this week's CPI inflation report. Large funds will remain cautious, with many positions choosing to wait and see, postponing the real directional battle until after the CPI is implemented. • Nasdaq: Judging by the attitudes of AI giants (Nvidia, Microsoft, Google), as long as leading tech stocks don't collectively plunge, the overall market environment will remain stable. • If the Nasdaq can stabilize risk appetite, it will indirectly provide sentiment support for $BTC $ETH; Conversely, tech stocks collectively retreated, making it difficult for the crypto world to break out of an independent rally. 🔥 Key sectors to watch: 1. Storage chips (SNDK, SanDisk, MU) The memory sector showed slight strength before the market opened, entering a recovery phase after some intense volatility. Characteristics: Huge volatility, strong interconnection within the sector. Tonight, let's see if they can maintain their rebound momentum; Once the storage sector collectively weakens, TradFi-related coins will also come under pressure. 2. Aerospace Sector $SPCX Last week was driven by satellite positive factors, but now it is in a period of sentiment digestion, making it prone to rallies and pullbacks. It's themed and mainly focused on capital sentiment,📊 $SNDK Contract Overload Express (August 14)
According to liquidation data, short-term bears are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but in the medium and long-term cycles, bulls and bears are reaching equilibrium, and the direction is facing further decision...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $85,500, $13,600, $71,900
4 hours: $99,700, $19,900, $79,800
12 hours: $333,900 $166,500 $167,400
24 hours: $371,200, $177,500, $193,600
From $SNDK liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour short liquidations crushed the bulls. The 1-hour short was 5.3 times the bulls, and the 4-hour ratio was about 4 times. The short squeeze in the short cycle unfolded with nuclear explosion-level intensity; the 12-hour direction reversed sharply, with bulls and bears almost completely even. Bears led by only $900, with the direction extremely unclear, and short squeezing momentum nearly exhausted; 24-hour bears again led slightly, with a ratio of about 1.09 times, balancing the forces of long and short forces. On SNDK, Gouzhuang completed a shift from fierce short squeeze to long-short tug-of-war—short-term short chases were targeted to blow up, medium- to long-term bulls and bears evenly matched, direction choices uncertain, and cumulative liquidations exceeded $370,000. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 14
This week, three main market themes point to the same theme: macro narratives and industry logic are undergoing a synchronized repricing.
📊 CPI Determines Life: The scale of a rate hike in September hangs in the balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on Wednesday, August 12, the US July CPI will be released. FactSet's comprehensive forecast shows that overall CPI year-on-year is expected to fall from 3.5% in June to 3.4%, while core CPI year-on-year is expected to fall from 2.6% to 2.5%. Deutsche Bank expects a month-on-month increase of 0.15%.
Why is this CPI so critical this time? After the nonfarm payroll turned negative in July, the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from 57% to 44%. But CME data shows the probability of a rate hike still swings between 44% and 55%. A CPI that exceeds expectations is enough to instantly tip the scales toward a rate hike; A moderate data sheet could completely extinguish the flames of a rate hike in September.
💾 Storage stocks: Explosive performance, but stock prices have crashed
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, but after the earnings report, its stock price once plunged more than 11%. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 557%, but its stock price has dropped about 20% since its all-time high on July 14.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim has already "shorted and bullish," believing the most dramatic correction is nearing its end. The divergence between bulls and bears is: bulls firmly believe HBM supply shortages will continue at least until 2027; Bears point out that memory contract prices are expected to peak in Q4, and ultra-high gross margins are hard to sustain permanently. Performance is in the past; divergence lies in the future.
📈 ETF funds return: BTC returns to $65,000
Bitcoin spot ETFs ended an eight-week streak of outflows exceeding $8.2 billion. As of the week ending August 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $853.5 million, marking the strongest performance since mid-April. BlackRock IBIT attracted $479 million between August 3 and 5, accounting for 76% of total inflows.
Ethereum spot ETFs also strengthened, with a weekly net inflow of $245 million, maintaining net inflows for five consecutive weeks. Last week, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs together attracted about $1.1 billion in inflows.
Can BTC hold above $65,000? The key lies in CPI—if inflation is moderate, ETF inflows are likely to continue; If the data is strong, rising rate hike expectations could weigh on risk assets.
💎 Summary
CPI will determine where the scales tip for a September rate hike; The "unexpected plunge" in storage stocks proves valuations have outpaced fundamentals; The continued return of ETFs shows institutional funds are re-entering the market. All three markets have cleared out expectations within the same window — Wednesday's CPI data will be the ultimate judgment to test all this. #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a September rate hike be rewritten?
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? After falling to a 2 year low, the CDD (30-dma) is currently trending back up.
This indicates that long term holders are destroying UTXOs by moving $BTC that has been held for more than 6 months.
CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) is a metric that accounts for the number of days a UTXO was held before being spent. The longer it was held, the higher its CDD contribution, which allows us to gauge LTH activity. —
At first glance, this could suggest that LTHs are intensifying their movements and therefore their selling, since a large amount of LTH $BTC moving usually translates into increased sell pressure.
But this reading is biased by the Coldcard event, which pushed many LTHs to move their BTC in order to improve its security.
This is visible in LTH spent UTXOs, which spiked at the end of July, at the same time.Three Green, Two Red Flags
A handful of alternative assets are catching bids, but calling it a broad rotation misses the bigger picture.
$SOL has added roughly 7% since the start of August, climbing from ~71.87 to ~76.91, with daily turnover holding above1 billion. $ADA is the standout mover—up nearly 20% in ten days from ~0.168 to ~0.196 after a volume spike to778 million on August 6. $OKB punched through its87 ceiling toward $93.75 on August 8, backed by a 110% surge in volume and a 19% jump in open interest.
The other half of the list tells a different story. $UNI is flat to slightly lower over the same stretch—~4.08 on August 1 to ~3.99 today—despite its fee switch generating roughly260,000 daily. $ZETA is down double digits over the past month after a 44.43 million token unlock hit the market on August 1 worth ~1.42 million. Distribution, not accumulation.
Meanwhile, institutional vehicles keep swallowing the top two. U.S. spot Bitcoin products absorbed over 853 million across five straight inflow days, and Ethereum funds added nearly245 million more. If capital were truly fleeing the majors for mid-caps, those coffers would be emptying. They are not.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,757.64 on August 7, just 36 points shy of its 52-week high of 7,793.68. Risk appetite is real, but it is flowing into the giants first, with only select names downstream catching scraps. Chasing the green ones while ignoring the flow data is a recipe for catching the wrong side of the move.
Sources
Yahoo Finance — SOL,ADA, OKB,UNI price and volume data (Aug 1–10, 2026). finance.yahoo.com
Crypto.News / Yellow.com — U.S. spot ETF flow data: BTC 853.5M and ETH244.9M (Aug 3–7, 2026). crypto.news
CoinMarketCap — ZETA August 1 token unlock details (44.43M tokens, ~1.42M) and price action. coinmarketcap.com
Not financial advice.
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn The highlight of this week's market was Wednesday night's US July CPI. The general expectation from the Reuters survey is that overall CPI year-on-year will fall from 3.5% in June to 3.4%, and core CPI will drop from 2.6% to 2.5%. It looks like a cooldown, but don't get too excited—this data directly sets the script for the September 16 FOMC meeting.
The current background is that Fed Chair Wash has already declared that if inflation data is strong, he is prepared to raise rates in September. There are strong hawkish voices within the Fed; Kashkari said rates should "start to be raised gradually," and Moussalem leaned toward rate hikes at the last meeting. The market has basically priced in one rate hike within the year. So this CPI has two possible scenarios: if it weakens for the second consecutive month, a September rate hike is basically ruled out, allowing risk assets to catch their breath; but if inflation in core services rebounds, the card of rate hikes is truly in the table.
For the crypto market, this is a taut string. As of August 10, $BTC was grinding near $65,000, breaking above 65,000 several times but only to be pushed back, and $ETH hovering around $1,900. Last week, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $850 million, the best week since April. Institutions were buying, but the retail panic and greed index was only 32, still in the fear zone. To put it bluntly, the market is currently in a tug-of-war with institutions taking over and retail investors waiting, with everyone waiting for CPI to give direction.
My view: With CPI weakening, BTC is very likely to break through 65,000 and try to reach 66,800; If CPI is off the charts, 63,000 won't hold, and a pullback to 60,000 is possible. Before the data is released, don't overdo your positions; betting on this kind of market direction is better than waiting for the right direction. #本周三CPI公布, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? $BTC Unstable? The stablecoin pool has shrunk by nearly $15 billion!
CryptoQuant analysts posted on X that since May this year, the total market capitalization of stablecoins in the crypto market has dropped from about $280 billion to $266 billion, a shrinkage of nearly $15 billion, a decrease of about 5%.
Previously, stablecoin scale had been flat from October last year to May this year, with insufficient new funds, and now it has further contracted.
Stablecoins are, to some extent, the crypto market's "cash reserves." Continuous growth in scale usually means off-exchange funds are entering and waiting to buy; Conversely, a decline in market cap often means increased redemptions, capital exits, or investors temporarily unwilling to stay on-chain.
This further explains why even after $BTC stopped falling, the rebound still struggled.
Price stabilization only indicates that selling pressure has temporarily eased. If stablecoin supply, spot trading volume, and active buying do not rebound simultaneously, the market will still be dominated by existing capital competition.
At this point, rallies are more likely to turn into short-term rotations, and their sustainability will be reduced.
Of course, a decrease in stablecoin market cap does not directly equate to the exit of funds of the same scale, nor can this metric alone conclude that BTC will definitely fall.
Therefore, it is important to closely monitor whether stablecoins resume growth, net inflows into exchanges, spot trading volume, and changes in ETF funds. Before liquidity expands again, caution should be maintained for rapid rebounds and avoid blindly chasing highs.
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? Range-bound Analysis
🧵 $BTC has been stuck between $64K-$66K for 2 weeks straight. Here's why
1/ $BTC is trading around $65,117 today, up 0.40% on the day. Price has failed to break out of the $64,000-$66,000 range for several weeks now. That's not random.
2/ On the bull side: institutional presence keeps growing — Wintermute's spot OTC flow is now 72% institutional (up from 59% a year ago). That's a structural shift, not pass-through hype.
3/ But there's a warning sign too. MARA has pledged 18,750 BTC (~$1.2B) as collateral for $600M in financing. Rising leverage among treasury companies adds systemic risk if price drops sharply.
4/ Key levels to watch:
— Breakout above $66-67K → next target $68-69K
— Breakdown below $64K → next support $63K, then $62,500
5/ My take: this is a classic "coiling" moment. Two strong forces (institutional accumulation vs. leveraged risk) are currently balanced. The next sharp move likely comes from a specific catalyst (Fed decision, ETF flow spike, or a leverage unwind) — not organic drift.
💬 Which direction are you positioned for — breakout up, or breakdown down?
Personal analysis, not financial advice.
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn $BTC #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn $BTC Above 65,000 RMB, but the altcoins remain unmoved; beneath the surface, the underlying capital flow is worth watching.
Bitcoin has returned above $65,000, $ETH held steady at $1,900, and $SOL has reached around 76.6. On the surface, market sentiment appears to be warming up. However, after analyzing the sectors, it becomes clear that this round of movement is not a full recovery.
The Meme sector remained the focus of the entire session, with TUT surging over 50% in a single day and PUMP rising about 11%. However, upon closer inspection, the weighted gains across the sector were not outstanding, indicating that the profit-making effect was concentrated in a few leading stocks and did not spread to the entire sector. Meanwhile, the AI sector pulled back about 1.8%, GameFi fell nearly 4%, and DeFi and L2 sectors were also weak.
On one hand, they boost popular narratives, while on the other, they withdraw from weaker stocks. This differentiated pattern is more like existing funds moving between sectors, rather than a precursor to a broad rally with large influxes of new funds.
Technically, $BTC's most critical resistance range right now is at $65,500-$66,000. Multiple attempts to push higher this week failed to break above it. If a breakout can be confirmed by increased volume, the upper target could be the $67,000-$68,000 range.
From a capital perspective, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of about $854 million over the past week. Institutions are indeed covering the market, but the main inflow is BTC, not yet spilling over into the altcoin market. In a low-liquidity environment over the weekend, the market tends to fluctuate. It's better to first observe whether $65,500 can hold with volume before deciding on the next direction.📊 South Korean Memory Stocks Rebound
SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics led the KOSPI higher after reports that SK Hynix may launch a massive shareholder-return program, potentially worth 100T KRW, including around 40T KRW in buybacks.
The previous 15% drop was driven by Nvidia HBM rumors, pricing concerns, unclear shareholder returns, and heavy capex fears. Much of the panic selling has now eased.
Major banks remain bullish, while the key risks are increasing competition and future memory supply.
🔑 Watch these 3 catalysts:
• SanDisk Investor Day on Aug. 13
• SK Hynix’s official buyback plan
• Latest HBM contract-price negotiations
Unless long-term HBM prices fall significantly, the fundamental memory story remains intact.
#AIMemorySelloffEases
#OKXTraderVoices
#Gold4300EasingOrHedge $BTC The New York Stock Exchange officially steps in to build an on-chain financial channel
Personal analysis, not investment advice
According to Odaily, the NYSE president publicly stated that they are developing a tokenized securities on-chain payment platform and participated in the DTC tokenization pilot in July.
This is highly significant, not just empty hype.
The world's largest exchange is personally paving the way; traditional trillion-dollar assets are beginning to migrate compliantly onto the blockchain. Wall Street has quietly regarded blockchain as the next-generation financial infrastructure, not just an optional concept.
In the medium to long term, once asset tokenization is connected, it will open up huge imaginative space for the entire sector, and the channels for institutional funds to enter are gradually being built.
But one thing must be clear: long-term benefits do not equal an immediate short-term surge.
The old problems in the market still exist; upward rebounds have consistently failed to break through with volume, lacking incremental capital to take over. Most news-driven spikes are short-term pulses that easily fall back into oscillation after peaking.
Positive developments accumulate slowly; the market won't move up in one step. Never impulsively chase highs just because of good news.
When do you think the tokenization wave will bring about a truly big market rally? #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn THE SETUP THAT PUSHED BITCOIN TO $82K IN MAY IS FORMING AGAIN.
Derivatives driving the market.
Demand growth turning positive at 25,000 $BTC .
The pattern is identical.
But here is the critical warning.
May's rally was short lived because spot demand never confirmed.
And right now spot demand is still barely breathing.
Futures can ignite a move.
Only spot can sustain one.
25,000 BTC of demand growth is a start.
Not a foundation.
Watch spot demand obsessively right now.
It is the only variable that determines whether this rally is real or another trap.记一条硬件端的物价信号，走着看：内存价格据说已经贵回2007年，DDR5 每 GB 卖到90块。这是实打实、看得见摸得着的涨价——AI 和数据中心把内存需求拉爆了。有意思的是这波"硬件通胀"几乎没传导到加密：$BTC 该横还横，链上叙事该冷还冷。同样是"稀缺"故事，内存是真缺货、真涨价，很多加密项目却只是账面上的稀缺、靠叙事撑估值。市场现在只愿意给"能兑现的稀缺"付钱。这轮谁在真赚钱、谁在讲故事，价格慢慢会分出来。走着看$OKB Don't panic about today's decline; it's just normal profit-taking, not a trend reversal. Right now, we're just trading sideways and waiting for CPI performance; it's not time to take profits yet.
1. The market is currently waiting for CPI data, but don't expect too high. Because there is too little market fund right now—not because liquidity is poor or the order book is thin, but rather that capital is trading US stocks, and very few are willing to take over crypto assets.
2. Limited market funds are not only reflected in rising prices with no buyers, but also in negative news with no one to exit. Because those who should have run have already left, and the rest are basically dead staunch investors. Unless a sudden black swan shatters their faith, there aren't many sellers. As a result, the current market volatility is relatively small.
3. For OKB, there are no major official moves right now, so it mainly follows BTC linkage. However, because its liquidity is relatively thin, the amplitude is a bit larger. For example, BTC's volatility over two days over the weekend was only 1%, but OKB already had 3%.重大消息已出！利好？
北京时间明晚20:30非农落地，美股要迎来关键选择
本周五晚间20:30，7月非农就业报告即将出炉，这是美联储7月议息会议之后，最重要的一份就业数据，会直接改写9月利率预期，美股、美债、加密全部资产都会被牵动。
此前ADP小非农数据明显不及预期，已经提前给市场打了预防针，市场在博弈就业逐步降温。
三种数据情景对应的美股走向
情景一：非农大幅强于预期，薪资同步走高
就业火热，会推迟降息预期，美债收益率上行。高估值AI科技、存储板块承压最重，MU、SNDK这类成长标的容易遭遇抛压；道指价值蓝筹相对抗跌，整体指数会出现分化行情。
情景二：非农显著走弱，失业率抬升
市场会强化降息预期，美债收益率下行，利好科技成长股。存储、AI硬件有机会迎来修复反弹。但也要警惕一种风险：数据太差，会引发市场对经济衰退的担忧，造成短期普跌。
情景三：数据和预期基本吻合
就业温和降温，不冷不热。美股延续当前撕裂格局，道指偏强，纳指高位震荡，行情回归财报逻辑，板块内部继续轮动。
抛开非农，美股本身接下来的盘面判断
1、存储板块现在处于财报证伪后的剧烈震荡阶段。SNDK走出深V反转，但财报带来的预期下调问题没有彻底消失。后市重点盯MU关键支撑能不能守住，守住代表板块分化修复；一旦有效跌破，存储这一轮行情会进入中期估值消化，不要把超跌反弹直接当成新一轮主升浪。
2、市场结构性分化会持续上演。业绩指引超预期的标的会继续享受溢价；就算利润很高，但股东回报、未来指引保守的公司，会持续被资金抛弃。普涨行情已经结束，选股难度变大。
3、风险点依旧不能忽视，$SPCX巨额解禁压力还在，会时不时扰动盘面，放大盘中插针波动。
重点关注标的：
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
动能消退、资金离场品种：
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
等待信号确认观察池：
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
资金偏好的强势品种：
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
当下市场逻辑梳理：
$BTC — 加密市场流动性中枢，决定整体盘面的冷热程度
$ETH — 机构资金持续布局，依靠震荡慢慢沉淀筹码
$SOL — Layer1赛道的弹性担当，行情启动时上涨空间可观
$TAO & $WLD — AI主线热度持续，反复得到资金的青睐
$HYPE — 市场投机情绪标尺，用来判断当下风险偏好高低
$DOGE & $ZEC — 散户情绪窗口，直观反映短线投机热度Money is coming in, so why hasn't $BTC risen?
Last week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of about $865 million, marking a nearly 15-week high.
BlackRock IBIT alone contributed about $694 million.
$ETH also saw net inflows for five consecutive weeks.
By normal logic, institutions bought so much, $BTC and $ETH should have gone up.
But the market didn't show it.
$BTC is still grinding around $65,000, and $ETH hasn't made any decent independent gains.
This is the most noteworthy aspect right now.
Capital inflows are real, and selling is also real.
ETFs bought nearly $900 million worth of money, but the price hasn't been significantly pushed up, indicating that someone above keeps handing over chips. Institutions are buying shares, but whether they're bottom-fishing or just providing exit liquidity for high-end funds remains to be seen.
In fact, ETF data can only tell you when money is coming in; it can't tell you how much selling interest remains.
True strength is not about the price remaining flat after capital flows in, but when buying absorbs selling pressure, trading volume expands, and prices begin to move out of the cost zone.
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? $BTC unstable? Stablecoin liquidity pools have shrunk by nearly $15 billion!
CryptoQuant analyst pointed out on X: From May this year until now, the total market cap of stablecoins in the crypto market has dropped from about $280 billion to $266 billion, shrinking by nearly $15 billion, a decline of about 5%.
Before this, the stablecoin market size basically remained flat from October last year to May this year, with new inflows not being sufficient, and now it has further contracted.
Stablecoins are, to some extent, the "cash reserves" of the crypto market. Continuous growth in size usually indicates that off-exchange funds are entering and waiting to buy; conversely, a decline in market cap often means increased redemptions, funds leaving, or investors temporarily unwilling to stay on-chain.
This further explains why $BTC, even after stabilizing, still struggles to rebound.
Price stabilization only indicates that selling pressure has temporarily eased; if stablecoin supply, spot trading volume, and active buying do not simultaneously recover, the market will still be dominated by existing funds competing.
At this time, rallies are more likely to become short-term rotations, and sustainability will be discounted.
Of course, a decrease in stablecoin market cap cannot be directly equated with an equal amount of funds leaving, nor can this single indicator alone determine that BTC will definitely fall.
Therefore, it is necessary to continue focusing on whether stablecoins resume growth, net inflows to exchanges, spot trading volume, and ETF fund changes. Before liquidity expands again, remain cautious about rapid rebounds and avoid blindly chasing highs.
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn 🔥 EIP-8361 could change everything about ETH staking — and not everyone's on board
Six Ethereum researchers have proposed EIP-8361 — a plan that would gradually burn a growing share of validator rewards as staked $ETH increases, reaching roughly 100% burn near 60 million ETH staked. The goal: prevent staking from becoming overcentralized.
Why it's controversial:
For it: stabilizes network decentralization by preventing an outsized share of ETH from being staked with just a few dominant players.
Against it: SharpLink's CEO has already publicly pushed back, warning it would strip out ETH's yield advantage over Bitcoin — directly threatening the foundation of roughly $35B in liquid staking token collateral.
Why it matters if you hold ETH or staked ETH:
If this proposal moves forward, staking yield would decline over the long run. That could affect both direct stakers and DeFi strategies built on liquid staking tokens (stETH and similar).
My take: this is an early-stage proposal, not a confirmed change. But it's worth watching — if it gains momentum, it could meaningfully reshape ETH's value proposition from a staking standpoint.
💬 How do you see this — a necessary decentralization safeguard, or an unnecessary threat to ETH's competitive edge?
Personal observation, not financial advice.
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn $ETH 负资金费套利？不是你想的那么容易！
资金费率越高的币种，借币额度越容易被借完。
为什么高资金费率的币总是被借完？
因为所有人都盯着同一个机会。
负资金费率意味着空头在向多头付费，套利者会借入该币种卖出现货（做空），同时开合约多单对冲，赚取资金费。
当一个币的资金费率足够高时，大量套利者同时涌入借币，平台资金池里的币很快就被借空了。
平台的杠杆借贷是平台自己的库存，不是无限供应的。库存有限，需求集中爆发，额度自然归零。
额度什么时候恢复？
当有人还款时，额度会释放出来。但这通常发生在套利者平仓之后——也就是资金费率已经降下来之后。
等额度恢复时，高费率的窗口期往往已经过去了。
借不到币，还有什么替代方案？
方案一：双合约套利（无币可借也能做）
在两个不同交易所的永续合约之间套利。A交易所资金费率 -0.5%，B交易所 -0.2%，你在A做多、在B做空，赚取 0.3% 的费率差。不需要借币，只需要在两个交易所都有合约账户即可。
方案二：换流动性更好的币种
BTC、ETH 这类主流币的借币池更深，虽然资金费率通常较低（2%-5%年化），但可以稳定借到币，不会出现无币可借的情况。
方案三：提前布局，不追高费率
在资金费率刚开始转负、还没有被大量套利者发现时借币入场。等其他人涌入时，你已经建好仓位了。这需要持续监控费率的变化趋势，而不是等到高费率已经出现再追。
结论
“高费率币借不到币”问题，本质上是套利机会的竞争导致资源枯竭。
市场是透明的，大家都看到了同一个机会，先到先得。
借不到币，不代表无法套利。
双合约套利不需要借币，主流币种借币池更深，这些都是可以尝试的方向。The opening bell of the Korean stock market broke through the morning session, with cross-market funds rapidly shuttling between the AI storage sector and the crypto market. After the $ETH surged, it immediately faced selling pressure.
Bitcoin repeatedly dipped after rising to $65,500, and $ETH followed a clear downward trajectory after climbing above $1,930.
Unusual movements in AI storage stocks like SK Hynix boosted sentiment, with funds quickly surging to arbitrage during the opening of US stock index futures and Korean stocks, then concentrated profit-taking and exits.
The relatively weak liquidity during the Asia-Pacific session amplifies the volatility of capital inflows and outflows, directly turning profit-taking into short-term crypto asset trading.
If US risk appetite continues to recover and US Treasury yields stabilize, capital liquidity will naturally take over, pushing the market to hold above the node; If selling pressure in the storage sector intensifies again, this rebound path will fail.
If risk-off sentiment in the US stock market and the forex market spreads in tandem, triggering further withdrawal of Asia-Pacific funds, prices will face further pullbacks; If spot funds continue to flow back, downward pressure will ease.
The core of the current game is the duration of profit-taking. Once global tech sectors stabilize, the logic of short-term pullbacks will be disproven.
The most noteworthy variable to watch in the next 24 hours is the relay of funds between tech stocks and the crypto market after the storage sector's selling pressure eases.
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎 Cook: #CLARITY表决推迟至9月, the regulatory window has shifted backward#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
On Wednesday (August 12), the July CPI will be released at 8:30 AM in the U.S. East Coast, the most critical inflation data since the nonfarm payroll shock and before the September FOMC.
- CME FedWatch: 25bp rate hike in September probability about 40%-45%, unchanged at 55%-60%
- Forecasting a more dovish market: The probability of rate hikes has dropped to around 34%.
In July, the nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, pushing rate hike expectations down from around 60%. But there are still clear divisions within the Fed—at the July meeting, rates were maintained 9-3, with three committee members directly voting to raise rates.
Market expectations for CPI
- Overall CPI year-on-year: 3.5% → 3.4%
- Core CPI year-on-year: 2.6% → 2.5%
- A slight positive growth is expected month-on-month
Will pricing be rewritten?
Most likely.
- Data meets or falls short of expectations: The probability of a rate hike may further drop below 30%, and the market is more inclined to postpone rate hikes until October or even the end of the year.
- Data above expectations (especially core stickiness): The probability of rate hikes is likely to quickly return above 50%, or even higher. Inflation remains the Fed's current higher-weighted variable.
In short: the cooling employment has already given doves ammunition, but Wednesday's CPI is the real "master switch" that will determine the direction of pricing for September.
Do you think this CPI will be hotter than expected, or will it continue to cool down?Rumors of storage chip supply chains going overseas are reshaping risk appetite and capital allocation in the consumer electronics supply chain. Changxin Memory's response to Apple's overseas procurement rumors should be based on official announcements, and HP and Acer have precedents of overseas applications. If official overseas procurement cooperation is confirmed, supply chain inflationary pressures will ease, further accumulating long positions in the technology sector. If overseas policy restrictions or official clarifications are denied, supply chain premiums will quickly fall, and market positions will shrink toward safe-haven assets.
#财报观察员: Bear Buying Becomes the Focus—What Is SpaceX's Perspective on the Future? #本周三CPI公布. Will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten? #存储股抛压缓和. Is the AI memory bull market stable?#财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward?
On the first day of the reopening, there was no crash, but the bears got squeezed and looked pretty strong. But don't rush to conclusions—nine rounds of unlocking, and only the first round has just passed.
What scale are the ones lining up afterward? 700 million shares in September, 700 million shares in October. The two rounds together total 1.4 billion, which is half the amount of 910 million yuan unlocked in the first batch. And this isn't all at once—it's being released in batches. Each round is a stress test—you never know which round someone will actually make a move. The lock-up period for Musk and the major shareholders is until June next year, so you don't need to worry about core shares for now, but just the volume from external shareholders is enough for the market to absorb for a while.
The bears haven't admitted defeat either. 250 million shares are still hanging, accounting for 16% of the float. The next rounds of the game will be very subtle—if insiders start selling in bulk, the bears will have more confidence, which means they have a natural ally; Conversely, if selling pressure doesn't arrive for a long time, the bears will have to keep closing their positions, and the price can be pushed up for a while. Both sides haven't settled their accounts yet, so betting on one side at this position is a gamble.
There's nothing to criticize about the fundamentals. Revenue doubled to 7.8 billion, Starlink is making real money, 12 million users are still growing, AI segment growth is 247%. The problem isn't the company, it's the price. The quarterly capital expenditure of 18.4 billion is there, the CFO says it's a one-year break-even — I'll verify this in two quarters before believing it. The seller gave a target price of $221 and an 80% buy rating, just take it as a reference, don't take it seriously.
My own approach: don't hold a heavy position at this position. The chip structure is too unstable, round after round keeps coming in, you never know which round is a landmine. Wait until supply calms down a bit and both prices and chips stabilize before making another move. Good stocks don't matter for one or two months. Right now, it's a stage of watching, not a stage of betting. The toughest hurdle for Samsung HBM may have passed. The latest news from the Korean supply chain reports that Samsung's HBM4 mass production yield rate is now close to 80%. If this figure is ultimately confirmed, the real pressure will not be on Samsung, but on SK Hynix. Over the past two years, SK Hynix has benefited from HBM's biggest dividends, with one core advantage being earlier mass production, higher yields, and more stable delivery to Nvidia. Samsung is now working to close this gap back. HBM4 also corresponds exactly to the NVIDIA Rubin era. If Samsung successfully enters large-scale supply, NVIDIA will have a stronger second supplier. HBM demand may not have peaked yet, but Hynix's most comfortable days could end first. $SAMSUNG $SKHYNIX #三星#海力士#HBM#存储Range-bound Analysis
🧵 $BTC has been stuck between $64K-$66K for 2 weeks straight. Here's why
1/ $BTC is trading around $65,117 today, up 0.40% on the day. Price has failed to break out of the $64,000-$66,000 range for several weeks now. That's not random.
2/ On the bull side: institutional presence keeps growing — Wintermute's spot OTC flow is now 72% institutional (up from 59% a year ago). That's a structural shift, not pass-through hype.
3/ But there's a warning sign too. MARA has pledged 18,750 BTC (~$1.2B) as collateral for $600M in financing. Rising leverage among treasury companies adds systemic risk if price drops sharply.
4/ Key levels to watch:
— Breakout above $66-67K → next target $68-69K
— Breakdown below $64K → next support $63K, then $62,500
5/ My take: this is a classic "coiling" moment. Two strong forces (institutional accumulation vs. leveraged risk) are currently balanced. The next sharp move likely comes from a specific catalyst (Fed decision, ETF flow spike, or a leverage unwind) — not organic drift.
💬 Which direction are you positioned for — breakout up, or breakdown down?
Personal analysis, not financial advice.
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn $BTC Hot Take / Debate-Provoking (drives both comments and likes)
🔥 Unpopular opinion. Miner "capitulation" is good news, not bad
Everyone's worried right now that miner profitability is sitting near all-time lows.
But history shows something we don't talk about enough: this exact picture has preceded every major bottom — weak miners exit, the network rebalances, and the strong ones remain.
That's not "bad news." That's the market's natural cleanup cycle.
The catch: nobody knows how long this phase lasts. Could be 2 weeks, could be 6 months.
Personally, I'm treating this as a signal to watch, not a reason for panic or euphoria.
💬 Agree or disagree? Drop a comment if you see it differently — I want real debate here.
Personal analysis, not financial advice.
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases $BTC C #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn BEARISH: Bitcoin Binance Perps volume hit its 6th-lowest day in 5 years.
At just $1.718B (26.4K BTC) on Aug. 8, only five lower-volume days have occurred, all during the 2022–23 post-FTX accumulation range below $30K, signaling a potential bear-market setup.#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown clear signals of divergence between bulls and bears. BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT has been heavily accumulating, while on-chain whales are simultaneously selling off to cash out, resulting in a typical structural tear-off pattern. Data shows that BlackRock IBIT increased its holdings by a total of 7,320 BTC this week, withdrawing 5,073 Bitcoins from the Coinbase Prime platform in a single day. Based on an average price of $65,000, the net purchase volume this week approaches $500 million, marking the third consecutive week of large-scale increases. Institutional funds entered the market, mainly to hedge against macro uncertainties caused by geopolitical conflicts and U.S. nonfarm payroll data falling short of expectations, with traditional asset allocation funds continuing to flow into Bitcoin. In stark contrast to institutional buying, on-chain whales chose to cash out at high prices. One whale sold 7,513 BTC in three weeks, cashing out about $487 million; meanwhile, an ETH whale who had been dormant for three years chose to cut losses and exit, losing nearly $6 million. Institutions are accumulating funds aggressively, while established whales are fleeing, resulting in a historic divergence in funds. Market interpretation suggests that new external institutional funds have taken over, while whales in early positions have taken profits during the rally. This divergence means market volatility will amplify, and the upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data may become a key catalyst for short-term market trends, requiring caution against the risk of large volatility caused by capital competition. #比特币BIP-110 fork stalled, miner support lacked $BTC $SNDK $SKHY 🧠 I DON’T FULLY UNDERSTAND THE CRITICISM OF THE SOLANA FOUNDATION.
I definitely feel for the Flashtrade team, but I think an important part of the discussion is being overlooked.
Flashtrade wasn’t a fully on-chain orderbook. I know this firsthand because calculating P&L from Flashtrade trades for tax purposes could be pretty frustrating. 😅
Phoenix was different. It operated with a fully on-chain orderbook, which aligned much more closely with the infrastructure Solana was trying to develop as a potential competitor to Hyperliquid.
So it’s understandable that the Solana Foundation put more support behind Phoenix.
That said, I wouldn’t say the Foundation completely ignored Flashtrade.
The team was featured at Breakpoint several times, and Flashtrade was also part of SuperteamAE, giving it access to the broader Solana ecosystem.
Flashtrade was actually performing very well in 2024, with plenty of Solana-focused traders using the platform.
The bigger problem was Hyperliquid.
It became a huge liquidity magnet, drawing trading volume away from multiple competing perpetuals platforms. Flashtrade seems to have been affected by that broader liquidity shift.
So I don’t think Flashtrade shutting down automatically proves that the Solana Foundation failed to support it.
Maybe there’s another side to this that I’m missing.
👀 What’s the strongest argument against this perspective?
$SOL $HYPE #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn Top trading insights: Never be bearish on US stocks lightly
The longer you trade, the more pitfalls you fall into, and the most valuable saying you finally learn is: never be bearish on US stocks easily.
This phrase is valuable and doubles with trading experience; it is the fundamental survival rule for all leveraged, trend, and grid trading.
Many people misunderstand this saying: it's not that US stocks won't fall, won't pull back, or won't crash.
US stocks will also experience rapid plunges of 20%–30%, with fierce shakeouts and ruthless leverage.
The real core difference is that its "repair logic" completely crushes the vast majority of markets.
First: U.S. stocks are global markets supported by real capital, real performance, and real industries.
The gains in the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor are not due to sentiment speculation, theme rotation, or policy catalysts.
It is a hardcore long-term trend built on AI computing power, technological iteration, real corporate revenue, and global capital clustering.
The logic of a long-term upward trend in the industry is not so easily ended.
Second: Most pullbacks in US stocks are driven by sentiment, crowding, and leverage—not trend sell-ins.
Reviewing all intermediate corrections in history:
A crash only takes one month to fully sink into the pit.
As long as the industry's logic is not disproven, the rebound after bottoming out is extremely rapid, and there will be no long-term lying flat, no year-end bottoming ground, and no endlessly low declines that wear down patience.
Many A-share sectors: one surge, one fall, a long bottom grinding torment.
US tech market: sharp drops, quick washouts, quick repairs; volatility is the norm, reversals are exceptions.
Third: Short selling itself is the hardest, most inhumane, and lowest win rate in trading.
The end of a bull market is a new high, the end of a bearish market is unlimited stop-losses.
Especially in US stocks, where trend inertia is extremely strong: those who follow the trend reap the profits, while those who go against it are forced to liquidate.
Even if there is a high-level oscillation, what you are betting on is consolidation; never bet on a major trend reversal. Block 937,440 in February delivered the message: 11.16 percent shaved off network difficulty. June followed with a 10.09 percent drop. These were not bugs in the code. They were the protocol culling the herd. The April 2024 halving to 3.125 BTC did not just halve revenue—it tripled the efficiency bar for staying solvent. Hashprice has fallen below $30 per petahash per second. At that level, any rig burning more than 20 joules per terahash is a liability disguised as hardware. The Physics Gap In To put it bluntly, the rules have always been set by the United States for others. If other countries' exchange rates have loopholes, they deserve to be harvested by American capital.
Recently, the much-discussed Plaza Accord 2.0 between Japan and the US involves joint intervention in exchange rates. The real mastermind behind this is US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen—one of the architects of the dollar system, former Chief Investment Officer of Soros Fund, who orchestrated the attacks on the British pound and the Asian financial crisis.
From Yellen's rise, we can clearly see what she is doing now.
In the 1992 pound attack, Yellen observed problems in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. The UK economy was weak but stubbornly maintained high interest rates; she believed the Bank of England could only choose between exchange rates and real estate. Soros agreed with her judgment, borrowed money and leveraged to short the pound. On Black Wednesday, the UK raised interest rates twice in one day to 15%, exhausted $26.9 billion in foreign reserves, yet still couldn't stop the attack, eventually exiting the ERM, with the pound plummeting 4% in a single day. Soros became famous overnight, profiting over a billion dollars. Yellen later accurately bet on the yen's depreciation and attacked the Thai baht and other currencies during the Asian financial crisis, profiting handsomely each time.
The wheel of fortune turns. The Wall Street titan who once dominated the scene has now become the firefighter defending against capital attacks, in a more awkward position than the countries once targeted.
US federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the 30-year Treasury yield has exceeded 5%, the highest since 2007. Yellen not only has to keep borrowing new debt to pay off old debt but also suppress borrowing costs to convince the market that the dollar is credible. Neither of these conditions currently holds.
US credit has been ruined by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell told the bond market at a meeting, "Welcome the market to raise rates on behalf of the Fed," enraging Wall Street tycoons who frantically sold off Treasuries. Within an hour after the meeting, the 10-year Treasury yield broke 4.7%. Powell caused the mess, and Yellen can only clean up afterward.
That's why Yellen is urgently trying to help Japan put out the fire—because even insiders no longer trust US debt, overseas central banks are selling off, and a global de-dollarization wave is rolling in. The Bank of Japan is the most important big buyer and must be stabilized. The yen's depreciation forces the Bank of Japan to keep selling Treasuries to support the yen, robbing Peter to pay Paul. Yellen first verbally pressured, then personally flew to Japan to guide, but the Bank of Japan still refused to raise rates. Finally, Yellen compromised and intervened through the Fed's exchange rate window guidance, violating market rules to stabilize the situation.
The most ironic thing is the double standard of financial rules. When shorting the pound, the Western rhetoric was "free market pricing correcting economic imbalances," completely ignoring the cost of local asset crashes, corporate bankruptcies, and wealth shrinkage after currency collapse. When US debt is under pressure, the narrative changes—malicious shorting becomes market sabotage, and defending US debt and the dollar is deemed in the global interest.
The rules have always been set by the US for others. If other countries have loopholes, they deserve to be harvested; if the US itself has problems, the whole world must bail it out.
Yellen has transformed from a dragon slayer into a dragon herself; what changed is her role, not the underlying logic. Back then, the attacks targeted loopholes left by other countries' policy mistakes; now, the dollar's debt hole is precisely the result of decades of US fiscal profligacy and excessive money printing. The harmful effects of the exchange rate mechanism once taught to the world have now all backfired on the US.
This is probably the most vivid cycle.
The above is only a personal opinion, not investment advice; please be aware of risks. 🔥 THE BIG QUESTION FOR TRADERS: WHERE SHOULD THE NEXT TRADE GO?
There’s an interesting dilemma emerging for active traders.
Imagine you’re looking to open a $500K long this week.
A year ago, Hyperliquid was an obvious choice — strong product, deep liquidity, competitive fees, and the added incentive of farming potential Season 3 points.
But the landscape has changed.
Today, several competing platforms offer low fees, solid execution, enough liquidity for large trades, and upcoming airdrops with relatively clearer reward expectations.
That creates an important hidden cost for Hyperliquid.
If traders can get similar execution elsewhere while also earning more predictable rewards, incentives can start playing a much bigger role in deciding where capital goes.
And that’s exactly why I still believe **Hyperliquid Season 3 is likely coming.** 👀
It’s difficult to imagine Hyperliquid simply watching competitors attract traders through aggressive reward programs without responding.
The longer S3 remains uncertain, the more important competitor incentives become.
The real question isn’t whether Hyperliquid has a strong product.
It’s whether the reward structure will remain competitive enough to keep traders there.
$HYPE #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn 🔥 UNPOPULAR OPINION: MINER CAPITULATION MAY ACTUALLY BE A GOOD SIGN.
Miner profitability is currently sitting near extremely weak levels, and that has many people worried.
But there’s another way to look at it.
Historically, periods of heavy miner stress have often appeared around major market bottoms.
Weak and inefficient miners are forced to shut down or sell, network difficulty eventually adjusts, and stronger miners survive the pressure.
That process can be painful, but it may also represent a natural cleanup of the market.
⚠️ The biggest uncertainty is timing.
This phase could last for a couple of weeks — or potentially much longer.
So I’m not treating miner capitulation as a reason to panic, but I’m also not assuming the bottom is already in.
For me, it’s simply a signal worth monitoring closely. 👀
💬 Agree or disagree?
Do you think miner capitulation is a bullish reset, or a warning that more downside could come?
Let’s hear both sides. 👇
Personal analysis, not financial advice.
$BTC #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #伯克希尔结束净卖出, restart large-scale allocations
After 14 quarters without net stock purchases, after Buffett handed over, Abel finally made his move
These past couple of days, when I saw Berkshire's financial report, I was stunned for quite a while. Cash dropped from $397.4 billion to $365.5 billion. After years of saving, Buffett finally started spending it.
To be honest, this is quite interesting. During Buffett's tenure, he sold stocks for 14 consecutive quarters, and the market kept speculating whether he thought U.S. stocks were too expensive. But as soon as he changed hands, Abel immediately bought nearly 20 billion worth of stock, 10 billion of which went to Google, and bought back 4.5 billion yuan of his own stock, marking a five-year high in the buyback scale.
Google jumped straight from the fifth holding to the top five, ranking alongside American Express, Apple, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola. Moreover, the financial report said about 13.5 billion yuan remained, but what exactly was bought remains undisclosed. We'll have to wait until the August 14th filing for 13F is released.
What's interesting about this deal is that Buffett previously said that missing out on Google years ago was a historic mistake; this increase was decided after he and Abel took over. The market is indeed at a high level now, and Abel is putting in money under pressure, which shows he believes at least some things aren't expensive.
Of course, some say this might be a change in style after the personnel change. Abel previously worked in the energy sector for a long time, so his way of managing money is definitely not exactly the same as Buffett's.
But seeing funds of Berkshire's level start moving, at least it shows they have no intention of running away at this level, and are even charging in. With this signal, market sentiment should improve somewhat.
$BRKB