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$CAP What is the next step for the dog farm?
Short term: Highly likely to experience intense fluctuations in the 0.026-0.035 range. Upbit's FOMO in Korea is the biggest variable—Korean retail investors rushing in could instantly trigger a massive blowout, and the FOMO wave could quickly break through.
Mid-term: The biggest variable is whether 84% of unlocked tokens and the Stabledrop trust crisis can be digested. Cap's fundamentals are indeed strong—Franklin Templeton endorsed it, TVL 3.25 billion, cumulative trading volume 54 billion—but token economics are a major weakness. CAP fell from its all-time high of 0.04257 to 0.030, a 28% decline. Whether this wave will rebound or continue to hit zero depends on whether Korean capital can continue to flow in after Upbit's launch.
The final heartfelt words:
CAP today is 0.03076, and as soon as Upbit announced its launch, it jumped 19% within 15 minutes. Franklin Templeton endorsed it, 3.25 billion in deposits, 54 billion in trading volume—the fundamentals are indeed solid. But 84% of tokens remain unlocked, Stabledrop dropped from 12 million to 4.2 million, and Upbit's positive news has already been realized ahead of schedule—all three major pitfalls are in place. At 0.03076, bulls fear dropping to 0.026, while bears fear further pushing FOMO from Korea. Hold back—wait until Upbit's FOMO is digested and the direction is clear before making a move! Remember, staying long in crypto is ten thousand times more important than making a lot of money! Meeting adjourned!BTC fell back after hitting $65,000, and open interest is also declining: Why hasn't this rally held steady?
The market was very hot at one point in the early morning.
BTC reached $65,022 upward, but by tonight, the price had returned to around $64,200. Looking only at the candlestick, it's easy to interpret this as a "failed breakout."
But if you include open interest, the story becomes more complete.
As of 21:15 Beijing time on August 6, BTCUSDT was about $64,226, up about 0.20% in the past 24 hours; The 24-hour high was $65,022, and the lowest was $63,847.
Source: Binance BTCUSDT U-level perpetual 24-hour market.
Around 4 a.m., when BTC hit an intraday high, open interest was about 108,762 BTC; By 21:00, open interest had dropped to about 106,732 BTC, a decrease of about 1.87%.
Source: Binance BTCUSDT hourly candlestick chart and open interest statistics.
In other words:
While prices have fallen from their highs, on-exchange contract positions are also shrinking.
This combination better fits the characteristic of "some positions exiting," rather than a large number of new short positions continuously entering the market. However, this is only an inference based on the relationship between price and open interest; it cannot directly prove the long withdrawal, nor can it conclude that the bears have taken control of the market.
Next, let's look at active transactions.
From 13:00 to 21:00 Beijing time, active BTC buying volume was about 14,904.7 coins, and active selling volume was about 15,090.1 coins. Selling volume was only about 185.4 more than buying, making the overall volume very close to equilibrium.
Source: Binance BTCUSDT Taker Buy/Sell Volume.
This shows that although prices declined from afternoon to evening, active sellers did not form a particularly obvious one-sided advantage.
So, what truly deserves attention today is not "BTC has fallen back," but rather:
After the surge, new positions did not follow up; During the pullback, active selling did not completely overwhelm buying.
Next, I will observe two conditions:
First, as BTC approaches $65,000 again, can open interest also rebound? Prices rise but positions continue to shrink, so the market may still be mainly driven by exits from old positions.
Second, when the price pulls back, can active selling truly push down to a new low? If selling increases but the price doesn't fall, then it's worth continuing to watch for support below.
Currently, there is no footprint chart data, so it is not appropriate to arbitrarily judge absorption, POC migration, or institutional position building at any location.
Price tells us the outcome, and position changes tell us whether participants are entering or leaving.
It doesn't predict every rise or fall, only explains what really happens in the market. #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved Sigh, my words might sound harsh this time, but I want to talk about why gold is rising this time while BTC isn't following along. I want everyone to be clear-headed! This kind of thing no longer works now. They are fundamentally not the same type of asset anymore; their driving logics for price increases are completely misaligned. Gold rises, BTC stays flat—that will be the norm going forward. Because this gold rally is driven by the cooling of rate hike expectations plus a definite short squeeSNDK and SPCX: Trading Structure and Key Price Levels
$SNDK Earnings are rising, with the expected slope revised downward
SNDK's latest quarterly revenue was approximately $8.97B, up 51% quarter-over-quarter, with gross margin rising to 84.6% and non-GAAP EPS reaching $39.25. The median revenue guidance for the next quarter is about $10.55B, with an EPS guidance of $44–$46, indicating that fundamentals are still expanding.
The problem is that the market trades growth slopes, not absolute growth. Revenue growth dropped from 51% to about 18%, and gross margin shifted from rapid expansion to high, sideways growth. When stock prices have fully reflected the rise in memory prices, any slowdown in growth will trigger valuation compression.
SNDK's earnings are highly dependent on NAND prices. About two-thirds of the revenue growth last quarter came from price increases, indicating strong operational leverage; When prices rise, gross profit is released quickly; when prices flattens, profit elasticity also drops sharply.
Currently, the surface valuation is not high, but cyclical stocks should not directly use peak EPS. The market is truly pricing in how long the 84% gross margin can be maintained and whether data center demand can continue to offset weak consumer demand.
Technically, $1,187–$1,226 is the first demand zone, and $1,120 is the second support. If the price drops below $1,226 after the earnings report but quickly recovers, it means selling pressure has been absorbed; It was only after regaining the $1,288 level that an initial recovery was formed.
Resistance above is at $1,350 and $1,427–$1,447, respectively. Before it recovers above $1,350, the rebound is still considered a reversion of the mean after a gap. If $1,187 is breached and cannot be rebounded, the price is very likely to retest $1,120.
SNDK is suitable for trading absorption and recovery after earnings gaps, not for taking direct hits during the first drop at the open.
$SPCX High growth versus high capital density
SPCX's Q2 revenue was about $7.81B, up 91.9% year-on-year. Among these, the connectivity business has generated significant profits, but AI and space businesses remain in a high-investment phase.
Market pressure mainly comes from capital expenditure. Quarterly capital expenditure was about $18.37B, more than double quarterly revenue, with most of it flowing into AI infrastructure. Revenue grows quickly and investment moves faster, so valuations depend on future asset utilization, after-depreciation profitability, and capital recovery cycles.
At this stage, SPCX cannot focus solely on revenue growth. The market is offering a high duration valuation and requires the simultaneous realization of connectivity, AI, and space businesses. As long as capital efficiency falls short of expectations, valuations will be prioritized for compression.
Another core variable is the circulating market. After the lifting of restrictions on large-scale share trading, effective supply increased significantly. Unlocking itself does not mean immediate selling, but it increases potential selling pressure, securities lending supply, and trading volatility.
In trading, attention should be paid to supply absorption efficiency. If trading volume surges but the price no longer hits new lows, it means new floating shares are gradually being absorbed; If both volume and decline widen, prices are still searching for a lower supply-demand balance.
Technically, $104.8–$108 is the current core defensive zone. After falling below $104.8, the price will enter a discovery zone lacking historical transactions, with $100 serving only as a psychological barrier.
The first resistance above is at $114–$115, followed by $125. The $131–$135 range corresponds to the issue price and the previous intensive trading zone. Only when the price climbs back to $125 does it mean the financial report decline is starting to expire; Only by reclaiming $135 can it be considered that medium-term pricing power has been regained.
High-quality long positions on SPCX require waiting for the unlocked supply to be absorbed. If it falls below $104.8 and quickly recovers $108, then further breaks above $114.5, a failed breakout and bearish covering structure will be formed.
Trading conclusion
SNDK trades memory price cycles, earnings slopes, and post-earnings valuation recovery; SPCX trades capital expenditure duration, float expansion, and supply absorption.
In the short term, SNDK's fundamentals and technical structure are easier to quantify and are suitable for a step-by-step recovery at $1,226, $1,288, and $1,350.
SPCX offers greater flexibility, but its price is still suppressed by unlocking and capital efficiency. Before it recovers above $114.5 and $125, any rebound can only be seen as oversold recovery and cannot be directly defined as a trend reversal.#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
Gold rose 4 points yesterday, breaking through $4,200 and marking the largest single-day gain since February. The logic is very clear: ADP data was 44,000, market expectation was 75,000, cut in half. Jobs cooled, rate hike expectations cooled, the dollar fell, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and gold surged.
By the same macro logic, Bitcoin should have risen as well. "Digital gold," as for "digital gold"—with rising rate cut expectations and a weaker dollar, risk assets should rally across the board. But the reality is BTC is flat around 64,000, unmoved. Gold surges, BTC plays dead.
Where did the problem lie?
First, Coinbase's premium has been negative for nearly 80 consecutive days. US institutions are selling, Asia is buying, and the net result is nothing. US investors are the most important marginal pricing force in this crypto market; if they don't enter, prices can't be pushed.
Second, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $210 million on Tuesday, but the price didn't move. A trader at Wintermute spoke the truth: ETF buying came in, but didn't push prices higher. Marginal buyers in the spot market aren't truly "bullish all the way." Some are buying, some are selling, and both forces are stuck at the 64,000 level.
Third, for BTC to sustain a rebound, three conditions must be met simultaneously: continued ETF inflows, cooling US Treasury yields, and the Fed not raising rates. The first two are happening, but the third has not yet been confirmed. The Fed is still holding steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with three internal committee members wanting to raise rates. There are expectations for rate cuts, but not a certainty yet.
Fourth, the capital attributes of gold and BTC are being repriced. Gold can recover quickly in this round of macro shocks, but Bitcoin is more sensitive to "longer higher interest rates." Institutions are separating the two: gold is a safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin is a high-volatility gaming tool. Gold is rising due to "rate cut expectations," while BTC is moving sideways because it is awaiting "rate cut confirmation."
Even more interestingly, under the same macro positive news, US stocks are also hitting new highs. The S&P 500 has already surpassed 7,700 points. So the current picture is: gold surges, US stocks hit new highs, BTC is trading sideways. Three markets, three reactions. Gold is betting on rate cuts, US stocks are betting on a soft landing, BTC is betting on "I don't know."
My judgment is: the macro trend is indeed improving, but BTC hasn't really reacted yet. $65,000 is the signal from 'Zhang Fan.' Volume surged above $65,000, indicating that macro logic has finally been transmitted to the crypto market. If it can't rise, it's still stuck in the 'good news has all been out' scenario.
ETFs are buying, but prices are unmoving—this is more anxiety-inducing than a decline. Because you're waiting for a rise that should happen, but it just doesn't happen. At this level, I choose to wait and see, neither adding positions nor cutting losses. The direction is right, but the timing hasn't come yet. Wait until the 64,000-65,000 range breaks out of the direction before talking. The wind is already blowing, but BTC's sails have not yet been raised $BTC $XAU $BTC $ETH $SNDK #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion in new buyback authorizations #Circle财报后押注Arc can USDC experience new growth? #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? Current pre-market conditions (Beijing time 8-06 evening, US East Coast has not officially opened) - Last night after hours: After earnings released, SanDisk plunged -8%~-9% after after-hours - Today's pre-market decline continued, pre-market decline widened to -10%~-11% - Yesterday's close: $1350.5 What happened (Core contradiction) 1. This quarter's financial data is very strong: Q4 revenue for fiscal year 2026 reached $8.97 billion (+372% year-on-year), with EPS and gross margin both exceeding market expectations, and a $14 billion stock buyback plan launched. 2. Root cause of the decline: Next quarter guidance falls short of the market's overly high expectations. The company has set revenue ranges for next fiscal quarter: $10.3–$10.8 billion, with a median of $10.55 billion; but Wall Street consensus expects $11.16 billion, with a clear gap in between. The AI storage market previously drove SanDisk's stock price very high, with capital maxing growth expectations, but earnings did not reach the "higher fantasy" and were directly sold off. Chain Reactions in the Same Sector: Storage Sector Under Collective Pressure: - Western Digital WDC plunged over 15% in pre-market trading - SK Hynix and Micron Technology followed suit, with the entire A-share market falling in parallel$CL Comprehensive Analysis of WTI Crude Oil Market (as of August 6, 2026)
Currently, WTI crude oil prices are showing a technical recovery after a high-level pullback, with the latest quotes hovering around $75 per barrel. The market is currently in a tug-of-war between geopolitical expectations and fundamental supply-demand dynamics, with bullish and bearish factors intertwining causing increased oil price volatility.
1. Analysis of Core Driving Factors
1. Geopolitics: Risk premiums fade alongside uncertainty
The core driving force behind recent oil price pressure comes from expectations of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The United States, Iran, and Oman have made positive progress on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and are close to finalizing a temporary passage agreement. This diplomatic breakthrough has significantly reduced market concerns about disruptions to the global core energy corridor, causing the previously accumulated geopolitical risk premiums to quickly retreat. However, the final implementation of the agreement remains uncertain, and the Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea region indicate that regional shipping security risks have not been fully resolved, providing some bottom support for oil prices.
2. Supply and demand fundamentals: The contradiction between macroeconomic weakness and structural tightness
* Negative factors (macro and inventory): Weakening global macroeconomic expectations are another major factor suppressing oil prices. The US manufacturing PMI has been below the threshold for consecutive years, cooling the labor market and raising concerns about the outlook for crude oil demand. Meanwhile, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that US commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, far exceeding market expectations and further confirming the short-term oversupply situation.
* Positive factors (refined products and strategic reserves): Despite accumulated crude oil inventories, the U.S. refined oil market is showing a tight balance pattern of "high exports, low output, low inventory." U.S. diesel inventories have fallen to their lowest level since 1996, and with the arrival of the traditional refinery maintenance season from August to October, expectations of oil supply contraction are strong, providing solid bottom support for crude oil prices. Additionally, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen to its lowest level since 1983, significantly narrowing the market's margin for fault, and any new supply disruption could trigger a strong reaction.
2. Technical analysis
From the technical chart perspective, after consecutive sharp declines, WTI crude oil is currently in a technical rebound and recovery phase, but overall remains weak in the short term.
* Trend and Moving Averages: The current price is well below the 20-day exponential moving average (about $79.24/barrel), indicating the rebound is still within a corrective range within a broader downtrend. The 100-hour and 200-hour simple moving averages (around $79.55 and $81.62 respectively) form dense resistance zones above.
* Momentum indicator: The daily MACD indicator's green momentum bars continue to narrow, the DIF line shows signs of turning upward, and in the short term, conditions for a golden cross may form, indicating weakening downward momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the neutral to slightly weak zone of 42-49, indicating that the market's bullish and bearish forces remain indecisive, and rebound momentum is insufficient.
* Key Price Ranges:
* Resistance above: The primary short-term resistance is in the $76.5-$78.0 per barrel range; If a breakout is effective, stronger resistance will be in the $79.5-80.0 per barrel moving average concentration zone.
* Support below: Short-term primary support is at $72.0-$74.0 per barrel; If breached, key support below will be at the $70.0 per barrel integer level and the five-month low of $67.0 per barrel.
3. Market Outlook and Risk Warnings
Overall, WTI crude oil is highly likely to maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term. The market is trying to "see through" the risks of geopolitical conflict, and the trading logic has shifted from "one-sided geopolitical drive" to a complex "fundamental + geopolitical game" model.
* Upside risks: repeated or broken talks between the US and Iran, new substantial attacks in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz, and OPEC+ unexpectedly announcing deepened production cuts.
* Downside risks: The Strait of Hormuz agreement has been officially signed and navigation resumed, U.S. crude oil inventories continue to accumulate, and further deterioration in global macroeconomic data have led to downward revisions in demand expectations. One company saw its net profit improve by $530 million year-on-year, its on-chain transaction volume surged by 151%, and BlackRock and Visa are competing to be its validators
Circle's Q2 earnings report is out.
It once rose over 8% in pre-market trading—then turned around and dropped 3.72%.
Revenue missed, USDC shrank, but BlackRock and Visa all showed up—which side should Circle trust in this earnings report?
Circle's Q2 earnings report is out.
It once rose over 8% in pre-market trading—then turned around and dropped 3.72%.
It closed down about 2%.
A company's net profit improved by $530 million year-on-year, on-chain transaction volume surged 151%, and BlackRock and Visa are competing to be its validators—why is the stock price falling?
The answer is simple: short-term data is fighting, long-term narratives are exploding. The market doesn't know which side to believe.
First, let's set up some 'negative news'—
👉 Revenue was $701 million, below Wall Street's expectation of $717 million. Missing for the second consecutive quarter.
👉 USDC's quarter-end circulating supply was $73.3 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, which looks decent. However, compared to the $77 billion at the end of Q1, this is a 4.8% decrease.
👉 The stock surged 8% in pre-market trading, but turned nearly 4% lower at the open.
👉 Mizuho Securities directly pointed out: "Behind the impressive data, USDC's month-on-month decline and profit margin pressure are core concerns." ”
These are the things Wall Street sells.
Another "good news" is presented—
👉 Net profit was $48 million, compared to a loss of $482 million in the same period last year—an improvement of $530 million year-over-year.
👉 On-chain transaction volume reached $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 151%. 7 million active wallets, up 24%.
👉 Received OCC approval to establish Federal Trust Bank, becoming one of the first stablecoin issuers with a federal banking license.
👉 CPN's annualized trading volume reached $14.7 billion, a 76% increase quarter-on-quarter, with 175 financial institutions joining.
👉 The full-year guidance for other income has been directly raised from 150-170 million to 310-330 million, doubling its annual guidance.
But the most explosive was Arc—
The mainnet went live on September 16.
List of founding validators, count:
BlackRock, DTCC, Galaxy, Global Payments, ICE, Mastercard, MoneyGram, SBI Group, Standard Chartered Bank, Sumitomo Corporation, Visa.
11 companies. All of them are among the world's top financial institutions.
BlackRock plans to deploy the BUIDL fund directly on Arc. DTCC aims to tokenize custody assets on Arc.
Wall Street is selling earnings reports, while smart money is buying the future.
The short-term data really doesn't look good. Missing revenue, USDC shrinking at quarter-end, and margin pressure—these are all facts.
But what is Arc? It is a Layer 1 integrating stablecoin settlement + tokenized assets + institutional financial infrastructure. USDC is used as the native gas token. More than 100 ecosystem and institutional builders are already running on private mainnets.
Revenue misses are short-term noise; Arc is the key to Circle's valuation restructuring.
The market is pricing Circle using the valuation of a "stablecoin issuer."
But after Arc goes live, Circle's narrative will shift to "institutional financial blockchain infrastructure."
How much is the valuation difference between the two?
You calculate it yourself.
Do you look at the short-term "data camp" or the long-term "narrative camp"? $ETH Open the space, open the space!
The long position on 1858 has been perfectly completed, earning over 1,000 in profit
From 1880 to 1925, the price dropped from 1880 all the way to 1925. Although it didn't sell at the peak, it basically took all the profits it needed
Overall, after choosing the right direction, the position position should gradually decrease as the price rises
The price surged to 1927 but failed to hold steady, then fell back below 1900, and short-term momentum began to shift toward selling
So I opened a short position on the reverse hand in 1898
This trade only involves a pullback after a failed rally, without prejudging that the major trend has reversed
If the price remains unrecoverable from 1900 to 1905, first watch for strong declines at 1880, then watch around 1865
If the price stabilizes above 1910, I will first reduce my position and observe whether this pullback has ended
This short position only lasts after the failed 1927 rally; if it can't break out, it is taken and not extended further.
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth? Three hundred million was stolen in half a year, and this time, it wasn't a hacker who did it
Some coins weren't stolen; they were blocked at the door and forced to take them away.
A recent report from Chainalysis states that in the first half of 2026, crypto holders have suffered losses exceeding $30 million from violent robberies. The violent robbery mentioned here refers to kidnapping, breaking into homes, or face-to-face coercion, forcing the victim to transfer the money themselves. At this pace, if you go all year round, it's very likely to surpass the $58 million record set in 2025.
The report highlighted a place: France. That area has already become a hotspot for such attacks. One of the triggers is quite chilling: the French tax authorities once leaked information about high-net-worth crypto investors, essentially obtaining a list listing who owns cryptocurrency, how much, and where they live.
This is different from the hackers we usually talk about. If your on-chain is stolen, at least you can trace the address, monitor fund flows, and seek help from the issuer to freeze the issuer. The data from a few days ago also said that Tether averaged 2 hours and 16 minutes from the moment it proposed to freeze to actually execute. But when someone is stuck in their own hallway, what does two hours mean? I don't need to elaborate.
What's even more troublesome is another sentence in the report: these crimes increasingly affect family members, with the proportion of home break-ins and kidnappings rising. The target isn't just you, it's your family.
What I want to say isn't to scare anyone, but to have some logic to turn around. In recent years, people have been saying that self-custody is safe, and cold wallets are what you truly own. This is true on Chain: keeping multiple keys apart, writing mnemonic phrases on paper, and offline devices can indeed block most online attacks. But self-custody shifts risk from the exchange to you. The stronger the lock on the chain, the more the offline person becomes the only breakthrough.
The real loopholes are basically all off-chain. Have you ever posted screenshots of your profits in a group, posted about your holdings in your Moments, chatted with people about how much you stocked up at offline dinners, or checked in with your real name at a local gathering? Put together, these make up a list. That time in France, the tax system missed the mark; more often, they handed over the money bit by bit.
Give me three solid ones. Don't discuss the exact amount in any situation where you can trace the true identity; the vague the explanation, the better. Large assets should be layered, with daily wallets and hidden items separated. The bottom of the chest should ideally require a few keys to be moved. If you really get blocked, at least honestly say I can't manage this alone. Also, family members should know about this, but don't need to know the details, especially not letting children casually say at school that the family is doing encryption.
On the market side, this news had little impact on the candlesticks. BTC was still grinding between 64,000 and 65,000, with the 200-week moving average just above 63,657, so volume didn't follow. But in the long run, it will push two things forward. First, regulatory requirements worldwide have more reason to require real-name on-chain transfers and require exchanges to strengthen outbound review, further tightening on-chain freedom. Second, a group of people might be scared back to exchanges, and the proportion of self-custody may actually decrease. The backdoor warehouse disguised as a Coldcard tool a few days ago followed the same path: first scaring you, then handing over the goods.
I want to ask, has anyone around you ever been targeted in real life because of coins, or have you ever experienced that momentary fear of being scared?Early BTC accumulation and public service entry: Comparing asset strategies from a generational perspective Is the claim that Bitcoin awareness before age 25 and long-term investment may be a better choice than attending a 211 or 985 university? Is it really valid? This post shares a personal perspective spread within the Vietnamese community, comparing the path of recognizing Bitcoin before age 25 and executing long-term investment with admission to prestigious universities and civil service appointments. Here, the key axis of comparison is the time value of short-term social stability versus long-term asset formation. The logic is that graduating from prestigious universities and being appointed to public office guarantee immediate cash flow and social status, whereas Bitcoin accumulation investments can serve as asset accumulation tools to offset currency value declines. The implications of this claim for market structure are clear. Since entering the institutional system, BTC has already been recognized from being a 'savings tool' to a 'tool for intergenerational wealth transfer.' This is a factor that improves the quality of supply and demand for long-term holding rather than short-term trading demand. In fact, the supply indicators for long-term holders have shown a continuous upward trend, and thisIs Wall Street shorting Musk again?
Why are there more shorts even though SpaceX's earnings report is optimistic?
It seems the market is no longer betting on whether SpaceX is profitable, but whether it can survive the "Max Q" after going public.
$24.6 billion is a large amount, but not the most dangerous signal
In the history of U.S. stocks, $24.6 billion in short positions belongs to the top tier but is not uncommon.
At its peak, $TSLA had short positions exceeding $40 billion; trillion-dollar companies like Apple and Nvidia have also seen hundreds of billions in short positions.
What’s truly abnormal is not the amount.
34% of the float is shorted, which is the real pressure
Most large blue-chip stocks usually have short interest below 5%.
Once it exceeds 10%, the market starts to pay attention; above 20%, the risk of a short squeeze rises significantly.
Currently, about 34% of SpaceX’s float is shorted, and nearly 49% of the free float has been lent out.
This means both bulls and bears are heavily betting here.
Any change in expectations could quickly amplify stock price volatility.
Why did shorts increase despite better-than-expected earnings?
This is the most thought-provoking part of the whole story.
SpaceX’s first earnings report after going public was actually not bad:
Revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% year-over-year; losses significantly narrowed, much better than market expectations.
Normally, a positive earnings report should prompt shorts to cover.
But the market did not.
Because Wall Street’s real concern is cash flow in the coming years.
What is the market betting on?
The shorts’ logic focuses on three main points.
First, capital expenditure.
$SPCX invested $18.4 billion in one quarter, with $15.8 billion continuing to go into AI infrastructure. The market worries the burn rate will outpace profit realization.
Second, unlocking pressure.
On August 6, the first batch of locked shares will be unlocked, with up to about $100 billion worth of chips potentially entering the market, significantly increasing short-term supply.
Third, valuation.
The market does not deny SpaceX’s long-term value but doubts whether such aggressive investment can convert into profits as expected.
In other words:
The market acknowledges it will make money, but bets it won’t last until profits are realized.
What is "Max Q"?
Morgan Stanley used a very vivid term:
Max Q.
This is the moment during a rocket launch when it experiences the greatest aerodynamic and structural stress.
If it passes through, resistance quickly decreases.
If it doesn’t, the mission ends.
Today’s SpaceX faces a similar test.
Not a business collapse, not product failure.
But high investment, high valuation, and large-scale unlocking all happening simultaneously.
Ten years ago, Wall Street was also firmly shorting Tesla.
For almost the same reasons: burning cash too fast, valuation too high, destined to collapse.
The result was shorts losing hundreds of billions.
Now, they are placing the same bet on SpaceX.
This time, will Wall Street win, or will Musk once again pass through his own "Max Q"?
#SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 $BTC #ADP就业降温, Fed policy divides intensify, #闪迪财报双超预期 $14 billion new buyback authorization #Circle财报后押注Arc USDC—can USDC see new growth? $BTC $ETH $SOL Mining company sells 120 million in half a year, ends up losing 47.7 million: The "magical survival story" in the Bitcoin world is shattering many people's dreams of getting rich
Recently, a "depth charge" in the Bitcoin community has blown up the mining myth that many people have hidden behind a filter: the publicly listed mining company Cipher Digital's half-year financial report was released, leaving people amazed—the Bitcoin mined with so much electricity and maintenance costs was sold, and 1,619 BTC were sold, with $123.4 million in cash flow, only to record a $47.7 million realized loss.
Even more outrageous, it was a famously inverted cash flow: after working hard mining for over half a year and deducting miscellaneous expenses, mining revenue was only $24.8 million, while interest expenses dropped to $66.7 million—2.7 times the mining income. So, a group of people spent half a year working at the mining machines roaring, and the money they made wasn't even enough to cover the interest payments—essentially working for creditors for nothing.
Is this the high-profit business people usually imagine of "plugging in internet cables and lying down to earn Bitcoin"? Previously, many people fought desperately to enter the mining sector, thinking that buying mining machines would occupy electricity bill slumps and trigger financial freedom after a price surge. But now, leading mining companies have exposed the bottom of their "hell mode": they were as carefree as they were when expanding capacity with high leverage, but they were just as embarrassed when they were heavily in debt during rate hike cycles. The aftereffects of using leverage to buy mining machines and build data centers during high coin prices all collapsed in this cycle.
However, Cipher's backup plan is also intriguing: by the end of June, he still had 646 Bitcoins in his pocket, valued at $37.8 million at the time, clearly betting on the future. Moreover, the previously built Black Pearl data center began collecting rent in early August, effectively opening a new "hash power sales and water sales" second curve beyond mining. Instead of mining coins himself, he earned steady money by providing custody services to institutional clients, which actually capitalized on the recent surge in demand for AI and crypto computing power.
The most striking part of this is that it has exposed the survival truth of the crypto industry: there has never been a sure-win wealth myth, even upstream players holding mining rigs and directly producing coins lose blood due to the wrong leverage rhythm. Mining companies that can still bear debt pressure, hold onto coins for the cycle, and simultaneously launch new businesses to find new opportunities have truly reached the next round of the table. When will Cipher's rental income be disclosed next, and whether the coins it holds will reach the market boom point, the whole circle is watching—after all, its way of surviving is a microcosm of countless small and medium players in this bull market cycle.SOL’s burn proposal is being framed as a potential inflection point for its long-term tokenomics — and on the surface, the logic is compelling. 🔥
A supply-reduction mechanism can tighten the float and shift the supply/demand narrative, which markets tend to price in ahead of implementation. But the “burn = bullish” reflex is where nuance gets lost. 💡
The critical question isn’t whether burning is good or bad in theory — it’s whether the design can actually reduce supply without creating unintended friction in the ecosystem. Validator incentives, staking yields, builder economics, and network growth all sit on the same ledger. If a burn mechanism starts cannibalizing those incentives, the market will eventually price in the structural damage faster than it prices out the supply reduction. ⚖️
The proposal is still in theJust after reviewing the latest financial report, revenue reached $7.814 billion, a year-on-year increase of 92%, and operating losses are narrowing. Looking at this report card alone, there really isn't any major flaw. But the market has no interest in praising it now—Starship, Starlink, and AI are all burning cash wildly. Financial reports only prove it's still growing rapidly, but they don't prove when these investments will turn into real cash flow.
Even more troublesome is the lifting of the ban.
Unlocking does not necessarily mean shareholders will sell, but faced with potential shares worth hundreds of billions of dollars, no one wants to step forward early to be the buyer. The stock price has been falling recently, and the market is increasingly worried that employees and early investors will choose to "improve their lives" after acquiring shares, 😂 so I won't rush to bottom-fish for now.
My plan is: first look at the trading volume in the days after the lock-up is lifted. If selling is clearly amplified but the stock price can hold up, it means there are indeed buyers below; If it's just a rebound on reduced volume, it looks more like a short buying and not necessarily a bottom.
SpaceX is, of course, still a good company, but a good company is never worth buying at any price. Musk's story won't be finished so quickly; those eager to buy the dip might be buried first.
Finally, I want to ask everyone: would you choose to enter the market immediately after the ban is lifted, or wait until your chips are fully replenished before making a move? Share your strategy 🧐 in the comments
(DYOR, does not constitute investment advice)
#SpaceX #财报观察员 #解禁 #美股分析📊 Sandisk Beat the Quarter—But the Market Wanted More
Sandisk delivered another strong earnings report, yet the stock slipped after hours as investors looked past the headline beat and focused on future expectations.
Key Q4 highlights:
💰 Revenue: $8.97B, up 51% QoQ and 372% YoY
📈 Non-GAAP EPS: $39.25
🔄 Board approved an additional $14B share repurchase, increasing the remaining authorization to $15.5B
💵 Non-GAAP gross margin: 84.6%
💸 Free cash flow: $7.08B ($5.04B adjusted for Flash Ventures and new business model agreements)
The quarter also highlighted how uneven the NAND market remains:
📊 Around two-thirds of sequential revenue growth came from higher NAND pricing, while one-third came from increased shipment volumes.
🖥️ Datacenter revenue doubled quarter over quarter to $2.98B, driven by AI infrastructure demand.
📱 Consumer revenue declined 32%, underscoring continued weakness in traditional end markets.
Despite the impressive results, investors were disappointed with the outlook. Sandisk guided fiscal Q1 revenue to $10.3B–$10.8B and non-GAAP EPS to $44–$46—solid guidance, but not enough to exceed the market's elevated expectations. At the same time, management expects non-GAAP gross margins of 83%–85%, suggesting profitability should remain exceptionally strong.
Looking further ahead, the AI story continues to strengthen. Sandisk has now signed 10 New Business Model (NBM) agreements, including several new customers, improving long-term demand visibility. The company also partnered with SK hynix to introduce the industry's first open High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) specification through the Open Compute Project, targeting up to 512GB per package and 3TB/s bandwidth for AI inference workloads.
The key question for investors is whether today's growth is being driven primarily by cyclical NAND pricing or whether AI-driven storage demand can support a more durable expansion.
With Investor Day on August 13 approaching, management will have an opportunity to provide more clarity on the long-term outlook for AI storage, HBF adoption, and sustainDon't think the knockoff season has really arrived; this round of market trends feels more like a "rich people run first" screening game. Have you noticed that many coins seem to be rising, but very few are actually holding on? In my recent market turnarounds, my biggest impression isn't excitement, but restraint rather than excitement. Market sentiment is indeed a bit warmer than last month, but this warmth is not sunshine on the earth; it feels more like a spotlight—shining on only a few coins. To get straight to the point: this isn't a season of full bloom, but rather a beauty pageant with extremely selective funds. Most of these scams are still lying flat on the ground, sometimes unable to outperform the market. The ones truly chased by money are those with good liquidity, clear stories, and real chips in the market. Looking at sentiment, there are several intriguing signals: - The leading group, such as JTO, JELLYJELLY, OPG, LAB, and BSB, don't share a common trait with sector differences, but because "some are willing to buy during pullbacks." The core of sentiment is not chasing highs, but momentum. - On the watchlist, stocks like MEME, EDEN, ZKP, which are "not yet fully priced," are testing sentiment but haven't formed a synergy. - Among the weaker groups, BEAT, EDGE, TRUMP, and VIRTUAL are not because the projects are unsuccessful, but because current sentiment simply doesn't want to touch them—funds are avoiding uncertainty. Looking deeper, the mood indicators are actually on several major coins. BTC is the anchor of overall liquidity; when it is stable, sentiment can spread confidently; ETH has been quietly accumulated by large capital, reflecting sentimentThe ones selling down are not retail investors, but miners who can't afford to pay interest
Yesterday, there was a number in the market that didn't make a splash, but I stared at it for a long time. Cipher Digital, a Bitcoin mining company, sold 1,619 BTC in one go, recovering $123.4 million, with a confirmed loss of $47.7 million.
Selling coins isn't unusual; what's interesting is why they have to sell. Looking at the documents it submitted, this quarter's mining revenue was 24.8 million, and interest expenses were 66.7 million. Putting these two numbers together, the ratio is about 2.7 to 1. The coins mined up are converted to cash, and not even a fraction of the interest is enough.
This is the most authentic way miners sell coins. It's not bearish or profit-taking, but that the bill is due and you have to pay. For many, mining is still a free cash grab, but in reality, machines require electricity bills, factories rent money, and loans borrowed for expansion require interest payments. When the coin price is flat and unmoving, the first three items lose a cent, and the last one is all rolled up like a sky.
Then he checked how much he had left. As of the end of June, Cipher had only 646 BTC left in his account, worth 37.8 million—more than half of what he sold this time. The family fortune is basically emptied; next time there are bills, there won't be much to sell. Mining revenue is also declining year-on-year, with 43.6 million yuan in the same period last year and a net loss of 23.5 million yuan in the second quarter this year.
I've always said to focus on one indicator: the difference between the monthly coin production and selling volume of mining companies. This spread turning negative means miners are net selling, and the market gains a batch of sell orders that only see the expiration date, not the price. Cipher's document effectively puts this gap on the table.
Here's a comparison. Similarly, another mining company, TeraWulf's recent earnings showed computing power rental income of 31.9 million, up 52% quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 71% of total revenue. After the report, its stock price fell less than 1%. Cipher dropped 15.65% that day. The difference isn't in the price of the token, but in who locked the contract. Those who have transitioned to computing power leasing sign long-term contracts with monthly payments; Those still pure mining have income that fluctuates with coin prices, but their costs are tough.
What use does this have for our positions? In the short term, a single mining company selling 1,619 coins is insignificant compared to BTC's daily tens of billions in daily turnover. Don't expect it to leave a hole. But this type of sell order has a unique feature: it doesn't pick prices or check candlesticks, and just act when it expires. During sideways trading, these kinds of orders are the toughest. You think you're consolidating, but in reality, someone is slowly dumping their shares above.
On the market, BTC is still grinding in the 64,000 to 65,000 range, with the 200-week moving average at 63,657, which is the average cost for buyers over the past four years. It just broke above but volume didn't follow; no volume above basically means no hold. Coinbase's premium remains at -0.11, with 79 consecutive days of negative sales since May 19, and spot buying in the US has yet to catch up. On Coinglass's side, it fell below 61,456, with major exchanges holding long positions at 1.527 billion and over 3,000 points above the current price; above 67,341, there are 1.437 billion short positions, just over 2,000 points away, and the wall above is even closer.
Looking at the long term, this round of mining clearing is actually not a bad thing. If leverage is too high, it will collapse first; the rest will either have real computing power rental income or costs that can be suppressed. Once these people have sold out, the supply side will be cleaner, but the price is that no one can negotiate the price during the process.
So my view is, don't treat miners' selling coins as bad news for short-term trading. It's a slow variable, and what changes is the supply curve three months from now, not today's chart. If you really want to move your position, it's still those two confirmations: the ETF's weekly net inflow turned positive, and Coinbase's premium turned positive—both together count.
I want to ask you: do you usually check mining companies' financial reports, or do you just focus on coin prices? I think these bills are much more practical than many analysts' opinions.Today marks SpaceX's first major unlock. Yesterday, it was said that unlocking might not necessarily cause a decline, and its current performance is quite good, rising 3.6% before the market opens. However, the real strength will only be revealed after the market opens.
It's actually not surprising that the unlock day didn't drop, since the whole world knows it's unlocked today. Many people may have already hedged at high levels, and today is just a re-event.
After the market opens, retail investors find no drop, and may even close their positions to cover and further push the stock price higher.
After the market opens, there may be three possible moves:
1. The market opened with a surge first, tested 106–108 before being caught and then recovered widely
2. Actual selling was significantly lower than expected, with bears directly covering and pushing for 115–120
3. A small bullish candlestick before the market is a bullish signal; during normal trading, large selling is concentrated, breaking below the previous low of 104.83
But even if they hold out today, it's only the first hurdle. There will still be 7% shares released in batches at 70 or 90 days after listing, and it won't be until December that they can truly relax their vigilance over unlocking the price📊 SanDisk Beats Estimates, Expands Buyback—But Shares Slip After Hours
SanDisk delivered a strong quarter, beating Wall Street expectations and announcing an additional $14 billion share buyback. Yet despite the positive headline numbers, the stock declined in after-hours trading.
Key highlights:
💰 Q4 revenue: $8.97 billion
📈 Adjusted EPS: $39.25, ahead of expectations
🔄 New $14B share repurchase program signals management's confidence in long-term value.
So why did the stock fall?
The main concern was softer-than-expected Q1 guidance, reminding investors that markets often focus more on future growth than past performance. A strong earnings beat can quickly be overshadowed if the outlook disappoints.
The broader story remains intact:
🤖 AI-driven storage demand continues to strengthen.
💾 Investors are now watching whether NAND flash pricing improves and whether demand for high-bandwidth memory and enterprise storage can support current valuations.
📉 Near-term guidance has become the biggest factor driving sentiment.
The market's message is clear: strong results alone aren't enough—companies also need to deliver confidence about what's ahead.
What carries more weight for investors right now: the massive buyback or the cautious forward guidance? 👀
#SanDisk #AI #Semiconductors #NAND #Storage #Earnings #StockMarket #TechStocks
#EarningsRealityCheck
#Polymarket20BValuation
#KoreaMemoryRebound The ETF that was leading two months ago suddenly stopped being bought
JPMorgan released a report today, and one of the comments in it stood out quite strikingly. HYPE's ETF was still the most capital-attracting non-Bitcoin crypto fund in May and June, but by July and early August, the money basically stopped flowing in.
It's not an outflow, it's stagnation. This state is, to some extent, even more painful than the outflow; at least the outflow means someone is still making decisions, and the stagnation means no one is thinking about it anymore.
After the news broke, HYPE fell more than 3% to $55.3. Just the day before, this price was still 55.6, rising nearly 2% against the trend when the market was holding steady, making it one of the most eye-catching mainstream assets at the time. In just one day, the tide of opinion shifted.
The reason given by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou's team is straightforward: regulated crypto perpetual contract products in the US have started to launch. What used to be done on overseas decentralized platforms can now be done on licensed, compliant, and investor protection centralized exchanges. For institutions, these words carry much more weight than the fees.
Here's a detail that's easy to overlook. HYPE is now the fourth largest asset in the corporate crypto treasury, ranking behind Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL. It sounds impressive, but JPMorgan gives an even cooler set of figures: BTC ETFs are about $77 billion, ETH ETFs around $10 billion, and the combined total of SOL, XRP, and HYPE is only $2 to $3 billion. The first two are the sea, and the latter are puddles. The water level in the puddle changes, and a gust of wind is enough.
Interestingly, the situation on the chain is completely different.
The aid fund is also steadily burning coins, with $1.16 million in revenue in 24 hours and $1.11 million burned, totaling 46.22 million coins burned, which is about $2.56 billion at current prices, accounting for 4.62% of the maximum supply. The front-end ecosystem is also growing. With $85.6 million in 24-hour routing transaction volume, hypurrdash has become the largest developer code on the platform, pushing Phantom to second place. Bitwise unlocked over 110,000 HYPE tokens in three days, worth more than six million, but the money stayed in HyperEVM and never left.
So you'll see a fragmented situation: the on-chain engine is running, revenue is coming in, tokens are burning, and funds haven't left; The ETF channel outside the exchange suddenly fell silent.
These two events are actually not contradictory. On-chain activity measures how many people are currently using it, while ETF capital flow measures how many people who don't use it are willing to pay for it. The former is the product, the latter is the narrative. Products can spin for a long time, but once the narrative is taken over by stronger competitors, valuations have to be recalculated.
JPMorgan Chase also mentioned that Hyperliquid is expanding into the prediction market. This land is not vacant now. Polymarket just completed a financing round valued at over $20 billion, with 43.1 million monthly visits—more than FanDuel, DraftKings, and Kalshi combined. Heading in this direction is like stepping from a track that has already been fiercely competitive into an even more competitive one.
I've always thought the most beautiful aspect of on-chain perpetual business is that it brings matchmaking and liquidation on-chain—anyone can verify it, and no one can take it away. But beauty does not equal a moat. What truly decides where money goes may never be the technical architecture, but that paper—the license.
On one side are the rules written down by code; on the other, there is regulatory stamp access. In recent years, we've been used to saying the former wins, but institutional money has been voting for the latter with its feet.
Let's look at this from another angle. If a product in a chain is good enough, generates substantial revenue, and burns it ruthlessly, but ultimately loses incremental funds because competitors obtain licenses, then the problem lies with the project itself, or with the pricing method the market sets for it.
Do you think the real competitors for on-chain products are other public chains, or those old money companies that have just obtained compliance qualifications?GRVT: Secondary pricing after the event premium fades
$GRVT is currently in a phase of high price volatility following listing events. The current price is about $0.286, with a 24-hour drawdown of over 8%, but the trading volume is as high as 11.6 times the market cap, reflecting that the chips are still trading frequently and a stable holding consensus has yet to be formed.
The core variable on the market lies in the game between liquidity expansion and supply discounts. Recently, several major trading channels have opened simultaneously, significantly reducing liquidity discounts; However, the current circulating supply is only about 114.3 million tokens, accounting for 11.4% of total supply. The $32.7M circulating market cap corresponds to $286.3M FDV, and valuations are still suppressed by future unlocking and airdrop supply.
Extremely high trading volume does not necessarily mean trend accumulation. If trading volume continues to expand but the price fails to recover $0.318, turnover is closer to inventory transfer and distribution; If volume shrinks and the price stops falling in the $0.274–$0.285 range, it constitutes signs of seller exhaustion and short-term re-accumulation.
The derivatives structure is slightly bearish. The long-short ratio is about 0.82, with bears holding the advantage, but the funding rate remains positive, showing a weak structure of falling prices and paying long positions. Its reflexivity lies in the fact that once spot volume increases and breaks through $0.318, short covering could quickly amplify the upward slope; After the breakout, liquidity targets are at $0.342–$0.351 and $0.454, respectively.
The downside structure uses $0.274 as the first failure level. A valid breakdown and rebound resistance will occur, with the price likely to retest $0.261; if this area fails to form a rapid recovery, the market will re-examine liquidity at the previous low of $0.223–$0.230.
In trading, the $0.274–$0.318 range remains the event premium absorption zone, lacking the conditions for directional betting with a high P/E ratio. Only after holding above $0.318 will the short-term structural reversal be confirmed; If it falls below $0.274, the market switches to a supply-driven downward model.
GRVT's mid-term valuation ultimately depends on platform trading revenue, capital retention, and token value capture efficiency. At this stage, the fundamental narrative is sufficient to maintain trading enthusiasm but is insufficient to offset the valuation discount caused by low circulation, high FDV, and subsequent supply release.🔥BTC breaks through 65,000! Is this a real breakthrough or just a fake?
With the US-Iran ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices plummeting, inflation concerns temporarily set aside, and risk assets collectively went on air. Bitcoin has dropped nearly half from its all-time high of 126,000, and now that it has reached 65,000, bulls and bears are about to engage in a battle again.
On the technical side, 65,000 has turned from resistance to support; if it holds the 68,000-70,000 level, it will fail to test 62,000. On-chain data is even more interesting: 155,000 BTC moved to the 62,000-65,000 range, whale holdings increased from 2.87 million to 3.06 million, and 41 out of 45 indicators point to historical accumulation zones. Long-term holders are steady as Mount Tai, while short-term holders are selling their losses and exiting—a typical bottoming signal.
On the macro level, ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $200 million for two consecutive days, but overall outflows continued the previous week, with US Treasury yields at 4.7% suppressing funds. There are three market scenarios: a high probability (55%) is to fluctuate between 57,700 and 67,000, closing at 60,000 to 64,000 at the end of the month; 30% may break below 57,700, with a test of 52,000; only 15% will hold above 67,000 and reach 71,000 to 74,000.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
Right now, it's just a 'boring bottoming'—no panic, no passion. Next, nonfarm payrolls, CPI, Jackson Hole — any single data point can trigger volatility. Take it easy on high positions, don't chase rallies or sell-offs #Circle After earnings report betting on Arc, can USDC see new growth? #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? What use is good performance for $SNDK?
The lifeline for storage stocks is not the financial report at all.
SanDisk's Q2 results exceeded expectations, but the guidance for the next quarter did not meet the market's "explosive" expectations, dropping 5% after hours and falling more than 10% pre-market; Western Digital also posted impressive profits but gave guidance that "doesn't satisfy," leading to a sharp sell-off.
Previously, Samsung and SK Hynix also plummeted after their earnings reports.
The market logic is clear: stock prices speculate on future growth, not the past that has already been realized.
The AI market has pushed expectations to the limit; merely "exceeding expectations" is far from enough. Guidance must be spectacular enough to support high valuations. Any shortfall, and capital immediately votes with its feet. Once earnings are realized, they become old news; the gap in expectations is the real lifeline.#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Undoubtedly, the current strong rise in gold stands in stark contrast to BTC's absence, and this divergence is supported by clear macro logic.
Gold's recent strength has benefited from multiple positive factors: cooling employment data, easing Middle East tensions leading to lower oil prices, continued gold purchases by global central banks, and a rebound demand after technical overdips—four layers of driving factors are compounding, with a clear upward direction.
However, it is essential to face the potential risks of tonight's nonfarm payroll data: if employment data exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations will quickly rebound, and gold prices may rally and then sharply pull back. Strategically, do not chase long positions; only rely on key support levels to enter on low lengths, and strictly control position risk.
In contrast, BTC's absence from the golden feast is extremely clear:
1. Attribute Characterization — BTC is still classified by the market as a risk asset, with insufficient safe-haven qualities and cannot be compared to gold;
2. Buying Structure—Lack of sovereign buying endorsement at the central bank level, incremental funds rely entirely on risk appetite;
3. Cycle Phase — The halving benefits have long been realized, market speculation has faded, and capital attention has noticeably declined.
Currently, BTC can barely fit the logic of "rate cut expectations," but its flexibility is far inferior to gold. Before the release of non-farm payroll data, gold should be lightly positioned, while BTC is advised to wait and see for now—risk control always takes precedence over opportunity judgment.
#ADP就业降温, the Fed's policy divergence has intensified
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?Pre-market focus for US stocks
High-growth stocks fear slowing down the most.
$APP Q2 revenue was $1.924 billion, up 53% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin still at 84%. The numbers look strong, but revenue was slightly below market expectations, with Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance at about 83%, down about 18.5% before market opening.
What the market is repricing is its valuation that "continues to exceed expectations every quarter." In the past, people were willing to offer high prices because growth and profit margins rose together; Now, as growth slows and profit margins stop, even if they are still making money, valuations will be cut first.
Tonight, let's look at the post-opening support. After opening low, volume increased to cover part of the gap, indicating funds are willing to take in; If the rebound has no volume, the valuation pressure hasn't fully been released yet.财报后暴跌，资金却在加码——闪迪的盘面正在上演一场“价格与资金背离”的博弈。 据TradingBeats监测，SNDK现报1240.1美元，24小时下跌约12.2%。但与此同时，未平仓合约价值反而从1.35亿美元增至1.90亿美元，增加约5478万美元，增幅达40.6%。资金并未随下跌离场，而是在财报后继续加码。 当前每小时资金费率约为+0.00409%，新增仓位成本仍偏向多方。 0xc8b巨鲸重返闪迪，1555万美元逆势加仓 此前曾登上SKHX多头持仓TOP 1的0xc8b巨鲸，今日下午在约20分钟内累计买入12,527.6份SNDK，成交额约1555.7万美元，加权建仓均价1241.9美元。截至发稿，该地址以2倍全仓持有SNDK多单，浮亏约2.2万美元（-0.3%），清算价约88美元。 这不是追涨——是接跌。该地址没有选择在上涨时加仓，而是在闪迪盘中跌幅超过10%时入场。建仓均价1241.9美元，几乎是当日低点区域。当前未设置止盈、止损或继续加仓订单。 当价格暴跌而OI大幅增加时，通常意味着市场分歧正在加大。空头在加仓，多头也在加仓——财报后的方向仍未真正选出。而0xc8b这条此前$ZBT What do you think is the most important future value of ZK: privacy, verifiable computation, or proof of on-chain yield?
ZEROBASE has real needs in its direction and already has zkStaking products. But what needs to be verified now is not "whether ZK will explode," but "whether ZEROBASE can attract external customers who continue to pay, and whether this revenue can create real demand for ZBT."
1️⃣ Circulating supply is about 316 million tokens, with a circulating market capitalization of approximately 46 million USD
2️⃣ Maximum supply of 1 billion tokens, FDV of about $146 million
3️⃣ Currently, about 31.6% is supplied and circulated, with the remaining 68.4% yet to enter the market
Currently, there are only about 7,550 ETH Ethereum on-chain holding addresses, and zkStaking users deposit stablecoins and do not need to hold ZBT.
This means that even if ZEROBASE has products and TVL, it does not mean these users have converted into genuine ZBT needs.
Is ZBT's current rise due to repricing driven by business growth, or is it driven by the ZK narrative, low circulation, and trading enthusiasm?
This is currently the most pressing issue to verify.
This is not investment advice, for project research purposes only.$SOL Heavy volume drives down bulls, while bears strictly suppress prices. Institutional funds "cut off": As of August 4, six Solana ETFs have had zero net inflows for five consecutive trading days. Meanwhile, stablecoins on the Solana chain continue to see net outflows, with major funds betting with their feet.
· Whale dumping and long squeezes: Big players closed long positions on platforms like Bitfinex, causing over $16 million in a single long liquidation in early August. This "more sells more" stampede is the direct driver of heavy volume and downward selling.
· Tightening macro liquidity: The market expects a nearly 60% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, and combined with falling US stocks, funds are accelerating further withdrawal from altcoins from mainstream assets like BTC and ETH.
· Negative impact on meme coins: The $TRUMP token based on Solana plummeted by about 97%-98%, causing nearly one million investors to lose approximately $3.8 billion and severely damaging market confidence in the Solana ecosystem.
Additionally, technically, there is strong resistance in the $74-75 range, with heavy selling pressure from trapped buyers above, further intensifying the decline.
📈 Potential variables in bullish and bearish games
There are also some potential positive factors during the decline (such as the community's proposed "14x burn plan"), but these are long-term expectations and cannot immediately reverse the short-term crash driven by liquidity and panic.
In summary, SOL's heavy volume surge on August 6 was the result of multiple resonances in liquidity (zero ETF inflows, stablecoin outflows), on-chain data (whale sell-offs, long margin liquidations), and news (meme coin scandals, macro rate hike expectations), reflecting risk-averse behavior in the market amid liquidity tightening expectations. #黄金重返4200美元, why didn't BTC follow the rise? Mixed Earnings, Lock-Up Expiration Ahead — What's Next for $SPCX ? 📊
Before $SNDK 's earnings, I seriously considered closing my position.
My average entry is 1,391, with the lower boundary set at 1,219. I believed that even with earnings volatility, price would likely stay within the range—so I stuck with the trade.
The results were solid:
• Revenue: $8.97B (beat expectations)
• EPS: 39.25
• Gross Margin: 84.6%
Yet the stock still dropped nearly 9% after hours.
The reason? Management guided next quarter's revenue about $250M below what the market wanted. In today's market, simply beating expectations isn't enough—investors want stronger forward guidance.
My position is now down around 17%, with price trading near 1,271, but my grid strategy remains active. As long as 1,219 holds, the plan doesn't change.
Of course, seeing a drawdown isn't comfortable. But this decline doesn't necessarily signal a problem with the business. We've seen similar reactions in $AMD and $SPCX—strong earnings followed by post-earnings selling because expectations were even higher.
For now, I'll stay disciplined. If the lower boundary breaks, I'll reassess. If the range holds, the grid keeps working.
📌 Grid trading thrives on volatility. As long as the trading range remains intact, the strategy stays in play.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck 🚨 @Uniswap just launched its own token launchpad: Pools.
Instead of only powering launchpads, Uniswap is now competing with them.
The platform currently supports four launch modes, including permanent launches and CCA auctions with or without creator fees.
But CT wasn’t waiting for the frontend.
While Pools was still offline, traders were already deploying and trading “OG” tokens directly through the backend.
Some of the biggest narratives so far:
$POOLS
$FRONG
$UNIFROG
$FORK
Why would launchpads continue building on Uniswap if Uniswap is now competing for the same liquidity and users?#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Market Observation | Behind the counter-trend rally, be wary of divergence traps
Overseas US stock sectors generally declined, but leading coins have shown a reverse upward trend, and there are already growing voices in the market that the market is recovering across the board.
From my trading perspective, chasing the rally at this level carries far greater potential risks than the potential returns.
At this stage, my focus is on $ETH, and I need to distinguish whether this upward trend is a true trend reversal or just a short-term bullish fake.
The price rebounded from 1855 to 1927, breaking through 3.7% and regaining the key MA120 moving average at 1888.
Several moving averages such as MA5, MA10, MA20, MA30, and MA60 are all concentrated in the 1900-1910 range. Multiple indicators are highly converged, indicating that the market is about to undergo a directional shift.
Here arises a contradiction worth noting: the Nasdaq and S&P indices are falling simultaneously, so why have BTC and ETH managed to independently rise in their own ways?
In historical market trends, such divergence patterns are rarely sustained for long.
There are two subsequent scenarios: either the peripheral stock market continues to weaken, dragging down the coin price as well; Alternatively, the coin will see a catch-up decline and complete the correction and alignment of the trend.
Counter-trend rallies without fundamental support are mostly short-term traps.
Looking at the long-short position data, the current situation becomes clear: the overall ratio of long and short positions is clearly biased toward bulls, with many ordinary traders entering the market to go long, and the positions of major players also leaning bullish.
When bullish sentiment in the market becomes this crowded, if a large number of profitable orders flee in large numbers, it can easily trigger a rapid chain pullback.
I just placed a small position near 1911, using 50x leverage, with forced liquidation positioned around 2000.
The initial first observation target is set at 1880, and the second target is at 1850.
The overall position proportion is very low, treated as a trial and error for a light position.
With US stocks falling and coins rising against the trend, facing this abnormal market divergence, I chose to remain cautious and not blindly embrace this rebound. The 13F of the Italian bank's 13F is indeed shocking on the surface: IBIT reduced its common stock holdings by 94%, and pledged ETH funds increased by 201%. At first glance, everyone thought this bank was going to switch completely from BTC to ETH.
Laying out the entire holdings makes the story less dramatic.
Union São Paulo Bank's IBIT common shares fell from 646809 shares to 40,723 shares, a decrease of 93.7%; BlackRock's staked Ethereum ETF ETHB increased from 116,200 shares to 349,600 shares, up 200.9%. One decrease, one increase, the direction is clear, but the scales on both sides are simply not on the same scale.
At the end of Q2, the remaining IBIT common stock was declared at about $1.356 million, and ETHB at about $7.097 million. They still held 3.4736 million shares of ARKB, with a declared value of about $67.63 million, only 3.7% less than in Q1.
Combining IBIT and ARKB, this bank's BTC ETF position in common stock form is close to $68.99 million, still 9.7 times that of ETHB. There is also a Grayscale XRP ETF worth about $14.42 million. Based on the declared values of these three types of spot crypto ETFs: BTC accounts for 76.2%, XRP 15.9%, and staked ETH only 7.8%.
So the real move is: drastically compress IBIT, keep ARKB as the core BTC position, and conveniently allocate some ETH that can earn staking yields. Saying BTC has been completely replaced by ETH is far from the point.
Derivatives are even more aggressive. In Q1, IBIT call options accounted for 2.4965 million shares; in Q2, only 18,000 shares, a 99.3% drop; They also opened a new put option for 500,000 IBIT shares.
However, what 13F can see is limited: strike price, expiration date, premium is not disclosed, and the sold options and complete hedge portfolio are not visible. Whether this put option is insurance for the remaining BTC position or is hiding a more complex strategy is unclear based on this document; simply saying "banks are fully bearish on BTC" is enough.
Recent ETF capital flows have also shown no signs of institutional moves. On August 4 and 5, spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $211.5 million and $244.4 million respectively, totaling $455.9 million over two days; spot ETH ETFs saw inflows of $53.1 million and $60.8 million respectively over the same period, totaling $113.9 million. BTC still attracted four times more money than ETH.
As of 21:03 Beijing time, BTC was about $64,354, ETH about $1,625, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate was about 0.0253.
Ultimately, this position is more like an adjustment in product and yield structure: BTC supports the main crypto exposure, staking ETH earns an extra yield, and IBIT options are used for hedging or directional trading. A bank reducing a certain ETF is not enough to indicate institutions are starting to pivot.
If you really want to confirm a turnaround, you have to wait for three things to appear at the same time: ETH ETFs continue to attract higher capital inflows, the ETH/BTC exchange rate strengthens, and the bank continues to reduce its ARKB holdings next quarter. Wait until all these factors are in place before making a conclusion.
#意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%, increased staked ETH #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地
Signals of easing in the Strait of Hormuz crisis have emerged, with oil prices $CL $BZ leading the decline, and the market beginning to trade on the logic of reduced risk.
Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary consensus on a temporary navigation plan, with the US also involved in coordination. Although the final agreement has not yet been finalized, funds have already bet in advance on the resumption of supply. The previous rise in oil prices was pricing in war risk; the current decline is a revaluation based on peace expectations.
The market always runs ahead of the news, like after a heavy rain when the sky hasn't fully cleared, but funds have already started to close their umbrellas.
I believe the biggest short-term change is not how much oil prices have fallen, but that global inflationary pressure may ease. If navigation through the Strait of Hormuz truly resumes, the drop in energy prices will reduce market concerns about the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, and liquidity expectations may shift back toward easing.
For $BTC, this is a potential positive.
In recent times, Bitcoin's rise has been suppressed by the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and risk-off sentiment. If geopolitical risks cool down and oil prices fall, market risk appetite may rebound, and funds will seek high-beta assets again.
However, BTC is unlikely to start a unilateral rally in the short term; the market still needs to confirm two signals: first, whether expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to rise; second, whether funds flow back into the crypto market.
At present, BTC is more likely to enter a consolidation and accumulation phase. After the negative factors have been released, market sentiment is recovering. If the macro environment continues to improve, BTC has a chance to challenge previous highs again. But if the agreement is only a temporary easing and oil prices rise again, risk assets will still face pressure.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice! Sigh, although my words are harsh, I want to talk about why BTC didn't follow the gold rally this time
I want to say, everyone, be clear-headed! This kind of thing no longer works; the two are fundamentally different assets, and the driving logic behind the rally is completely misaligned. Gold rises, BTC moves sideways, and this will become the norm in the future.
Because gold is currently benefiting from a certainty recovery from cooling rate hike expectations + short covering, BTC is still stuck in the awkward period of unresolved regulation and lack of incremental funds. Without its own catalyst, it naturally can't keep up. So everyone, stop copying BTC's gold trend for a while—this logic has long since failed.
If you don't believe it, you can take a look at these numbers
On August 5, spot gold surged 4.16% in a single day, reaching a two-day high of $4,303, rebounding nearly 10% from the low of 3,942;
Meanwhile, BTC was trading in a narrow sideways range between $62,000 and $66,000, with a range of less than 7%, representing two completely different worlds. The core of the divergence is that their pricing anchors have long been completely separated.
So everyone, stay clear-headed. Their pricing logics have long diverged. Gold depends on interest rate easing + safe-haven recovery, but BTC relies on risk appetite + regulatory catalysts, driving different natural trends out of sync. Stop copying the "digital gold" calendar from $BTC $XAU
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? $SNXX 今日为什么暴跌——三大利空，狗庄砸盘不用理由！
第一，闪迪财报后暴跌！ 闪迪Q4营收89.7亿超预期，但Q1指引103-108亿低于市场预期的111-116亿。财报后闪迪从1441砸到1195，跌了17%。SNXX是2倍做多闪迪，闪迪跌17%，SNXX理论上跌34%——今天的27%跌幅已经算“手下留情”了。
第二，存储周期见顶恐慌！ 闪迪毛利率84.6%创历史新高，但市场担心这是周期顶点。周期股在周期顶点就该给低估值。
第三，杠杆ETF在暴跌中首当其冲！ 有分析明确指出：“像SNXX（2倍做多）这样的杠杆工具，在下跌中首当其冲，因为波动被放大。在没有确认技术支撑结构之前，不要试图接飞刀”。A little after nine in the evening, after showering, my hair still dripping with water. Passing by the table, my fingers lighted up my phone screen—glanced at the price, then went dark again. August 6, 2026, an ordinary Thursday.
After more than an hour of on-chain records, I shared a few sets of data I actually saw today.
$BTC Today's intraday volatility was less than $900, and option IV fell to near the yearly low. However, in the afternoon, nearly 200 out-of-the-money call options were bought, expiring on September 25, which was somewhat abrupt in a bearish market.
$ETH Gas once fell below 4 Gwei, with the mainnet cooling down, but the number of USDC on-chain transfers increased by 12% compared to yesterday, indicating funds are shifting positions. ETFs saw net inflows for the eighth consecutive day, with small volume but rare persistence.
$SOL After a 5% intraday rally to $158, it fully pulled back, showing the spontaneous behavior of algorithmic trading in a low-liquidity environment.
$XRP A top 50 address transfers 12 million coins from exchanges into cold wallets, with high payment priority, not caring about cost but prioritizing security.
$LINK Price feeder calls maintain an average of over 11,000 times per day. One address has consistently bought 500 coins daily for the past two weeks, with deposits coming from compliant custodial institutions.
$AAVE Today, a 7.5 million USDC loan occurred. The borrower's address chain has a history of over 500 days, operating every two weeks, resembling a market maker hedging.
$MKR Burn volume rose 22% quarter-on-quarter. After several small addresses bought in concentrated, they directly locked up governance contracts and chose the maximum term.
$UNI Front-end transaction volume rebounded by 15% month-on-month, with daily active addresses returning to 20,000.
$LDO Staking volume increased by about 40,000 ETH, with stETH discount shrinking from 0.4% to within 0.1%.
$ENA Today saw a four-hour continuous small accumulation of 2,000-3,000 coins, totaling over 50,000 coins, with a highly consistent rhythm resembling separate address trading.
$ONDO One address has taken in more than a dozen consecutive limit orders, each with about 500 coins, totaling nearly 8,000 coins.
$ENS Domain registrations are 35% higher than the average of the previous three days, with over 80% being new registrations, unlike typical retail investor behavior.
$ARB** Trading volume is nearly 40% lower than last Friday, market makers are charging more frequently, reducing inventory. **$OP Similar but slightly smaller. $STRK Hit a new listing low, buyer position is pitifully thin, and the market lacks patience for new projects.
$SUI** fell nearly 3%, with active addresses down 20% from last week. **$APT Early investor addresses transferred 500,000 tokens into the exchange. $SEI Volume shrinks and prices fall, with no stabilization structure.
$PEPE** Correlation with BTC remains above 0.7, with funds treating it as a Beta alternative. **$WIF Turnover rate is the lowest in nearly two weeks, but was pushed back after being pushed back during trading. $BONK** and **$FLOKI dipped slightly, with liquidity still at the top but no attention at the mid-to-tail market.
$FET** and **$AGIX are relatively resilient, with AI narratives providing support but being fragile—when Bitcoin goes wrong, it falls even deeper.
$PENDLE** YouTube trading volume suddenly more than doubled. **$CRV TVL net outflow for the fifth consecutive day, community discussion heat continues to decline.
Summary of today's net inflow directions: $ENA, $PEPE, $ONDO, $LINK, $UNI, $AAVE, $MKR, $ENS, $LDO, $RNDR, $FET**. Net outflow directions: **$WIF, $BONK, $FLOKI, $ARB, $OP, $STRK, $SUI, $APT, $SEI, $TIA, $DYDX, $CRV, $CAKE. Just one day sliced, tomorrow could be the opposite.
BTC and ETH balances on several exchanges fell simultaneously for the third consecutive day, with Bitcoin down by about 4,000 and ETH by about 20,000. Large holders are not panicking at the current level.
The total on-chain liquidation amount is less than $500,000, the lowest in nearly two months, indicating that leveraged bulls have almost finished clearing out.
Market makers today generally narrowed order spreads but canceled more frequently—willing to provide liquidity and unwilling to take inventory risk in any direction. They also have no direction.
It was 9:50, and the convenience store lights outside the window were still on.
No account movement today. In this kind of market, frequent moves lead to mistakes; staying still is good. Sometimes the best position management is doing nothing and saving energy when signals truly appear.
Tonight, I left my phone in the living room to charge. Before entering the bedroom, I glanced at it—still the same price.
August nights are quite long, so you don't have to endure every minute just to push through the candlesticks. #闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion in new buyback authorizations were added Hyperliquid（HYPE）的百亿估值：泡沫还是真金白银的印钞机？
结论先放这儿：Hyperliquid（HYPE）目前 124.5 亿美元的流通市值和超过 500 亿美元的 FDV，确实高得让很多人望而却步，但它并没有脱离基本面，因为这是链上第一只靠强悍的协议手续费回购支撑起来的超级独角兽。
这和上一轮牛市里那些只有治理功能、没有现金流分红的空气代币有着本质的区别。以前的 DeFi 协议，虽然交易量大，但手续费要么进了项目方的口袋，要么锁在国库里无法回馈代币持有者，代币最后都成了散户接盘的通胀垃圾。但 Hyperliquid 彻底换了玩法：它把高达 97% 到 99% 的协议手续费直接用于回购 HYPE 代币。这就意味着，只要平台有交易量，二级市场上就会有源源不断且极其强硬的买盘在买入 HYPE。
我们可以用真实的数据来算一笔账。根据 DefiLlama 的最新统计，Hyperliquid 在 7 月份的月度永续合约交易量已经达到了惊人的 2180 亿美元，目前平台的 TVL 稳定在 60.8 亿美元。按照当前的费率折算，平台的年化收入跑率已经达到了 7.68 亿到 8.4 亿美元。这意味着每年有数亿美元的资金在二级市场上无视大盘波动、雷打不动地回购 HYPE。这种回购力度，在整个加密市场中都是极其罕见的，也是它为什么能在六月份创下 76.81 美元历史高点的底层逻辑。
我自己也经常在 Hyperliquid 上做一些永续合约的对冲。说实话，从挂单速度和交易流畅度来看，它已经把其他去中心化交易所甩开了一个身位，体验直逼传统的中心化交易所。我自己账户里也配了一点 HYPE 的现货，仓位不大，但拿得很安稳。在垃圾时间里，我不愿意去赌那些靠画饼和空投积分过活的新币，我更倾向于把子弹放在有真实用户、有强劲现金流支撑的资产上。
接下来的几个月，我会重点关注 Hyperliquid 在 HIP-3 和 HIP-4 提案通过后，其新引入的真实世界资产（RWA）和预测市场给平台带来的增量交易量。只要月度永续交易量能够维持在 2000 亿美元上方，回购机制所释放的买盘就能有效垫高 HYPE 的估值地板。This is a landmark event in the crypto industry in early August 2026, attracting significant attention. The Bitcoin "super bull" company Strategy (formerly MSTR), which had previously adhered to a "buy-only, no-sell" policy, completed a new round of large-scale Bitcoin reduction. The relevant details and underlying logic can be summarized as follows: Core transaction details Between July 27 and August 2, 2026, Strategy sold a total of 1,638 Bitcoins, cashing out approximately $104.7 million, with an average transaction price of $63,957. This sale price is far below the company's overall average holding cost of $75,419, resulting in an accounting loss of about $11,462 per Bitcoin, representing a typical "loss-making reduction." After this transaction, the company still holds 842,000 Bitcoins, accounting for 4% of the current total Bitcoin circulation, remaining the publicly listed company with the largest Bitcoin holdings worldwide. Use of funds and supporting operations The proceeds from this sale were precisely allocated: Approximately $52.4 million was used to pay dividends on the company's Class A perpetual preferred shares (STRC). The remaining approximately $52.3 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares trading at a discount. At the same time, the company also sold over 3.01 million common shares through a market price issuance plan, raising a net amount of about $290 million, most of which was used to bolster USD reserves, ultimately increasing the company's cash reserves to $4 billion, sufficient to cover more than 12 months of dividend and interest payments. Special background of this reduction This is the reduction plan Strategy initiated since the end of June $ETH 6月底那会儿，最低干到1,512，那是真跌透了
后面就开启了一波挺像样的反弹，一路拉到1,981，涨了将近30%
那段时间均线也走成了多头排列，气势不错
但到7月中下旬，冲到1,981就上不去了，碰了一下就掉头往下，为啥？
看头顶上那条MA120在1,980附近，正好跟前期高点1,981重合，这俩一叠加，压力不是一般的大
最近这十来天，ETH就在1,850到1,900这个区间里磨
跌多了MA30（1,866）就托一下，涨上去又被人打下来
今天这根日线，收在1,904，重新站回了MA5、MA10、MA20上方，短期看着是回暖了
但问题是——量能一般，底下成交量柱子没比前几天大多少ETH took a long position at 1896.
This order actually follows the previous short order logic.
The short position at 1908 had already reached 1872. After the short-term downside was realized, I didn't continue to chase short at the low level. Instead, I waited for the price to return to the support zone and confirmed it hadn't broken further, then tried a long spot at 1896.
Stop loss set at 1888
Take profit in 1913
The logic is simple:
✔ The previous round of short profits has already been released
✔ Support remains near 1870, with no effective breakout
✔ The price has recovered above 1890, with short-term expectations of a rebound after the decline
✔ Entered at 1896, not very high, and stop-loss is relatively easy to control
This order is currently just a rebound near the support level and does not mean the trend has completely reversed.
If the previous low is broken again, it means the support has failed, so stop loss when necessary; If it can hold above 1900, then see if the rebound can continue upward.
Short when it should have been before, now that it has fallen near support, they are willing to try going long in a different direction.
Trading isn't about always being bearish or always bullish, but about planning accordingly as the price moves.$SPCX 单日暴跌13.61%、收于108.27美元后，期权市场出现了更值得警惕的信号—— 超5万份本周五到期的看跌期权（Put），集中堆在了100美元行权价。 100美元附近，市场已经堆满了火药，它会成为下跌加速的突破口，还是利空出尽的反弹地板？ 1.为什么是100美元？这不是巧合 最新期权数据显示，本周五到期的100美元Put未平仓合约已达50158份，同价位Call仅4655份，单一行权价的Put/Call比直接拉到10.78:1。 5万份Put，对应约500万股SPCX现货头寸。 以昨日收盘价计算，100美元距离现价只剩约7.6%的空间。 这意味着100美元早已不是普通的整数心理关口。 它是保护仓位、裸空交易、做市商对冲盘三方集中碰撞的价格： 持股股东在这里买Put做下跌保险 空头在这里下注破位大跌 做市商在这里对冲风险敞口 但要明确：Put多≠所有人都在裸做空。 未平仓量只能告诉我们筹码集中在哪，不能直接证明所有人都看跌——里面也可能有机构挂单接货、做组合策略。 2.真正的风险：下跌会自我实现 期权不是预言，但在极端持仓下，它能直接拉动现货价格。 假设这批Put主要由SanDisk's earnings exceeded expectations, but why did the stock price drop?
SanDisk's latest earnings report was impressive, with quarterly revenue reaching $8.97 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $39.25, both surpassing market expectations.
The core driving force behind this remains the expansion of AI infrastructure, rapid growth in high-end storage demand, and data center business becoming a key growth focus.
However, the stock price pulled back after the earnings release, mainly because the market had already priced in the AI storage growth expectations in advance.
SanDisk's stock price has surged significantly this year, and investors' expectations for future growth have become increasingly high. When the company's guidance for the next quarter did not clearly exceed these very high expectations, capital chose to take profits.
From a long-term perspective, the demand for data storage in the AI era is still in an expansion phase. Cloud computing, AI servers, and data center construction will continue to drive growth in the NAND and storage markets. The stock price may need to digest high valuation pressure in the short term, but if AI capital expenditures continue to remain strong, SanDisk still has growth potential.
At present, SanDisk appears to have strong fundamentals, but the market's overly high expectations have led to a short-term adjustment trend.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Gold is strongly rising, so why is BTC absent?
Recently, gold has been bullish due to multiple positive factors resonating together: cooling employment, falling Middle East oil prices, continuous central bank gold purchases, and a technical oversold rebound.
However, caution is needed regarding tonight's non-farm payroll data risk: if the data exceeds expectations strongly, rate cut expectations may reverse, and gold prices could spike and then pull back.
Strategically, do not blindly chase the rally; mainly buy on dips supported by support levels, and strictly control risk.
In contrast, BTC has not followed the rise mainly because it is still a risk asset with insufficient safe-haven qualities; it lacks central bank-level buying endorsement; and after the halving benefits have been realized, capital enthusiasm has cooled. Currently, it only slightly relates to rate cut logic and is much less elastic than gold. Before the non-farm data, it is recommended to operate gold with light positions and watch BTC for now, prioritizing risk control. $BTC #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck 恐惧25下 BTC持仓高 OI 钱去哪了？
BTC小涨0.76% 但恐惧25说明大家在怕什么
资金费率低到0.002% 说明多空都没狂加杠杆
高OI 107145万BTC 低成交9.9% 说明在等风向
山寨GRVT跌14% XSPCX跌11.7% 血流成河
为什么？美股代币联动AI半导体叙事崩了
钱大概流向BTC避险 或出逃
我之前long GRVT SL亏7.53% 接飞刀教训
现在short GRVT @0.28417 等反弹空
XSPCX short 浮亏0.08% 继续等反弹
怎么办？ 观望清算潮还是跟空头？
这波反弹是机会还是陷阱？💀📢 ETH晚间重点新闻汇总 + 盘面解读
一、核心消息面
1、资金信号：美国以太坊现货ETF结束连续流出，迎来大额净流入，贝莱德ETHA成为主要买入力量，机构资金重新回流ETH。大型资管ETF持续将持仓ETH投入信标链质押，流通筹码持续收缩，长期锁仓需求提升。
2、链上动向：BitMine持续增持ETH，持仓逼近600万枚，成为以太坊最大企业持币方；质押总量持续走高，全网超32%ETH处于质押状态。社区新提案EIP-8361持续讨论，计划根据质押比例调节增发销毁，长期重塑ETH稀缺性叙事。
3、盘面特征：ETH弹性明显强于BTC，但ETH/BTC汇率依旧在低位震荡。属于以太独立修复、大饼跟进乏力结构，这种行情持续性需要持续增量验证。
4、衍生品信号：上方1980—2000区间堆积大量套牢盘，短期存在大额空头挂单；下方1850附近存在巨鲸分批挂单承接。
二、晚间关键位置
上方压力：
1928 → 1950 → 1982（强分水岭）
下方支撑：
1880（短线强弱线）→ 1855 → 1820
三、行情推演
短线依托1880支撑维持偏多思路，目标先看1928–1950区间。
⚠️重点风险：
如果冲击1982前高无法放量突破，大量解套抛压涌出，行情大概率重回宽幅箱体震荡。
策略上不追高压力位，回踩支撑低多为主，杠杆严控，不重仓隔夜。
四、总结
机构资金回流是重要利多信号，但目前属于存量博弈修复。
核心观察指标：ETH/BTC汇率能否站稳回升。只有汇率走强，才会带动山寨板块普涨；汇率持续疲软，市场只会零星出现个别币种独立脉冲，难以形成全面行情。
耐心等待方向选择，震荡行情，管住手远比频繁交易重要。
#ETH #行情分析 #特朗普媒体链上转账2628BTC，性质未披露 $DOGE $SNDK $XAU 闪迪sndk还是成为了我的atm$SNDK
公开分享目前闪迪回调的原因，公开分享目前空单的拿单方法，公开分享下方布局多单的点位🔥
我是刺哥，1337.26的空单，现在1212附近，浮盈超过120个点。这单的逻辑已经被市场彻底验证了。
闪迪从1480跌到1212，发生了什么
8月5日盘后，闪迪发布2026财年Q4财报：
· 营收89.7亿美元，同比暴增372%，超预期的83.9亿
· 调整后EPS 39.25美元，是一年前0.29美元的135倍，超预期逾10%
· 毛利率84.6%创历史新高
· 数据中心业务全年收入大增437%
· 董事会批准额外140亿美元回购授权，总回购达155亿美元
数字漂亮得无可挑剔。但常规交易时段已跌5.4%，盘后一度再跌近8%至1248美元。
压垮股价的是2027财年Q1指引：
· 营收指引103亿至108亿美元，中值105.5亿，低于FactSet预期的108亿
· EPS指引44至46美元，市场预期均值44.72美元
· 毛利率指引环比大致持平，有见顶迹象
花旗将目标价从2500美元下调至2100美元。西部数据盘后跌超11%，SK海力士跌超9%，整个存储板块被拖下水。闪迪指引低于预期是核心原因，“亮丽的过去”不足以抵消“不够惊艳的未来”。
1337.26空单怎么拿
财报已经落地，指引低于预期的利空还在发酵，板块联动抛售仍在扩散。但短期跌幅已经不小，需要有序管理。
移动止损。止损从开仓位上方下移到1300。当前价格1212，1300意味着即便反弹你仍有超过30点利润。1小时周期1270支撑位已有效跌破并转为强压力位，1300是合理的止损位。
分批止盈。第一目标1150到1180，平掉30%仓位。第二目标1080到1100，再平30%。第三目标1000到1020，剩余40%全部平掉。
加仓条件。如果价格反弹到1250到1270区间且缩量滞涨（1小时均线空头排列已经成型），加仓空单，整体止损放在1300。如果直接放量跌破1150，追加空单，止损上移到1200，目标看1080。
离场条件。价格放量突破1300并站稳，说明财报利空被消化，空单全部离场。价格到1000到1020目标位，全部平仓，不贪最后一段。
为什么想在1088布局多单
技术面：1088是多重支撑汇聚区
从2354历史高点跌至998，跌幅近58%。1088紧贴998的趋势生命线，是空头最后的进攻阵地，也是多头最可能组织反攻的位置。1244是重要斐波那契回撤位，下方942是0.786回撤位，曾在7月下旬带来强劲反弹。1088处于998和1244之间，是筹码密集区的核心地带。1小时短期超跌，存在小幅反弹修复需求。日线成交量开始明显放大，说明低位有资金承接。
基本面：AI存储需求的基本盘没有崩塌
高盛维持2200美元目标价，基于20倍市盈率乘以正常化EPS 110美元。Evercore ISI维持跑赢大盘评级。23位分析师平均目标价2179美元，较当前价格仍有61%上行空间。2026年预期市盈率约20.7倍，2027年约6.3倍。产能2026年已全部售罄，2027年预订火爆。NAND现货价格季度环比涨60%到75%。
1088多单怎么拿
进场位置：1080到1100分批建仓，总仓位10%到15%，杠杆不超过3倍。
止损放在950下方。942是0.786斐波那契回撤位，跌破意味着最悲观情景出现。
止盈分三批。第一批1240到1260平掉30%，第二批1350到1380平掉30%，第三批1450到1480剩余40%全部平掉。
移动止损。价格每涨100点，止损上移50点。到1200止损从950上移到1000，到1300从1000上移到1050。
底线
1337空单已经在验证方向，移动止损锁利润，分批止盈拿波段。1088多单是等待超跌反弹的机会，不是追高。两个方向不矛盾，空单先落地，多单再进场。
刺哥说完了。你细品。#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $ETH $BTC $UB Recently, the fluctuations have been especially large. Today, it has risen again. I wasn't surprised by its rebound, in fact, it was within expectations. Previously, I bought long after the price dropped, and then I managed to take a small profit. Right now, I'm not very optimistic about its trend. $UB It might be going to fall. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract open interest first rises and then falls. At noon today, its contract open interest and long-short ratio rose simultaneously, indicating that many people were going long at that time. Afterwards, it indeed rebounded. During the rebound, its contract long-short ratio keeps declining, and the corresponding contract open interest also decreases. In other words, during the rebound, many bulls have already taken profits. After rising and entering a consolidation period, its contract long/short positions are lower than before, but its open interest is not as low as before. I infer that there was a lot of short accumulation during the rise. Plus, it's still at a high level, so I personally think $UB will decline going forward. —————————————————— While observing the market today, I found that a lot of capital is already flowing out. Market liquidity is decreasing and decreasing, which means the market may have triggered a sharp drop and may not yet have reached the bottom of the bear market. I'll post an article soon to share my views on the current situation$CORE 狗庄下一步怎么割？
短期：8月7日KuCoin停止提币是最大的雷。大户正在加速撤离，狗庄会利用每一次小反弹出货。
中期：Gate分析师给出路线图——“经过技术性回调后，Core会再次突破0.023美元，然后慢慢突破0.05美元，一旦突破0.08美元大关，有望到达0.14美元”。但前提是SatPay全面落地、产生真实收入。
最后一句BTCFi叙事、非托管质押、SatPay——故事很性感。但KuCoin下架、40%代币未解锁、SatPay还在内测、巨鲸跑路——四颗雷全摆在那。0.02013这位置，你以为是在抄底，实际上可能是在给还没解锁的40%代币当接盘侠。管住手，等KuCoin下架利空出尽、等SatPay真正落地、等方向明朗再动手！ 记住，在币圈活得久，比赚得多重要一万倍！散会！也不知道以太什么时候能去一趟1200以下？期待中#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #黄金重返4200美元，BTC为何没跟涨？