Orbit Post Sitemap
Today's market is like a couple who just finished a cold war—neither wants to speak first. Bitcoin closed around 62,900, down more than three points in a day. Ethereum also dropped back to around 1,860, a similar decline. The global market cap shrank to around 225 billion. The key point is that this drop didn't increase trading volume—it's a shrinking volume and a quiet drop, not panic sell-offs. To put it bluntly, it's not a breakup—both sides are waiting for a way out. Whoever backs down first is embarrassed. What's really interesting isn't the price, but the little tricks on the chain—whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 Ethereum From the June low, it quietly climbed upward. The thirty-day change has remained positive. This isn't a one-day trip; some people are seriously moving boxes at low levels. But retail investors, seeing the green market, their hands tremble, and the more afraid they are, the less willing they are to enter. You see, this is the classic divergence between smart money and retail investor sentiment. The whale is secretly moving things into the house, while retail investors are still standing at the door, hesitating about whether to enter. Inside, the move is lively, and the door is hesitant until their feet go numb. But don't rush to call for a bottom. Active Ethereum addresses are still at low levels, many buy but few use. Chips are being rotated, and the ecosystem heat hasn't caught up yet It's like someone moving furniture to your house every day, but no one has moved in yet. The venue is built, but you have to wait a bit longer. What to watch tomorrow? Eyes on next week's US nonfarm payroll. The market expects 91,000 new moves. Once the data increases, volatility increases. The US dollar index is still hovering around 999. The calm before data comes out often means taking a deep breath—not just a bad thing. In trading, it's just one thing: keep your bullets and don't fire recklessly. Light positions wait for stabilization signals before moving up; heavy positions don't add yet—they can sleepThis whale post is not just about "buying ETH again"
On the surface, addresses 0x2684 bought 7,919.5 ETH today, amounting to about $14.89 million. But when you look at the on-chain paths, it looks more like building a whole set of positions:
First, about 7,920 ETH were withdrawn from Binance, then converted to about 6,384 wstETH via Lido, and finally deposited into Spark as collateral; During this period, 50 WBTCs worth about $3.15 million were transferred to Spark. At the same time, about 9.848 million USDS were allocated on-chain, suggesting that this operation was not just spot hoarding but also involved lending or liquidity management.
Since June 30, this address has cumulatively purchased 74,265 ETH, totaling about $131.5 million, with an average cost of $1,771; Additionally, 1,050 WBTC were purchased, totaling about $67.49 million, with an average cost of $64,277. The cumulative purchase scale of these two asset classes approached $199 million.
More notably, the average ETH purchase price this time was about $1,880, approximately 6.2% higher than the overall average cost. In other words, this is not the cost of amortization after the price drops, but rather continued to add positions above the cost line. This increase in holdings amounts to about 10.7% of its cumulative ETH purchases.
This move is a positive short-term signal for ETH: after the token is introduced from the exchange, it enters staking and lending protocols, reducing the circulating tokens that can be dumped into the market at any time, while also increasing wstETH's collateral demand in DeFi.
But whale buying does not mean the market has bottomed out. Once assets are used as collateral, capital efficiency improves, and they also become more dependent on the price stability of ETH and BTC. If the market falls rapidly again and collateralization deteriorates, the original "long-term allocation" could become passive deleveraging.
So I think what really makes this deal worth watching isn't whether the whales guessed the bottom, but that nearly $200 million in BTC and ETH positions are shifting from mere token holding to on-chain yield and capital circulation. Large funds are no longer satisfied with just "buying and putting it in the wallet"; their tactics have clearly started to change.
$ETH #以太坊主网十一周年: Eleven years of uninterrupted operation and ecological achievements This earnings season is actually the two companies to watch most: Google and Tesla. Putting everything else aside, just looking at their "real answers," the difference from the numbers on the surface is huge.
On Google's side, its search base hasn't collapsed. After Gemini was added, advertiser feedback has been more stable than expected, but what the market really keeps holding on is its ever-increasing AI capital expenditure—whether it's profits or burning, it's really burning. Cloud and Azure are neck and neck, and this quarter's growth rate only needs a brief breath to scrutinize valuations.
Tesla is the real highlight. Year-on-year deliveries are still slipping down, car prices keep dropping, and gross margins are being weighed down. Now, the market doesn't even see it as a car company, focusing all its attention on the stories of Robotaxi and energy storage. Musk himself was distracted by the xAI scene, and shareholders had been grappling about it countless times.
Speaking of Musk, here's a quick post about the SPCX on OKX (the Musk-related one). I was on 108.9 and still holding onto 109 to grind 😅. Tesla's earnings report has shaken SPCX too. If the dog farm doesn't move, I can't do it—I just have to endure. If Tesla's "answer sheet" can't hold steady, I'm afraid I'll have to keep dragging things out with them for a while.
What do you think of the true quality of these two? I think the numbers are just for show; the key is whether Google dares to take AI strings and whether Tesla can wrap up the story. #财报观察员: Who can truly understand the real answer sheet from Google and Tesla this time? #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9% #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 In July 2026, the yield on the US 30-year Treasury note surged above 5.23%, the highest level since 2007 (2019). This creates strong systemic pressure on the cryptocurrency market, with the main mechanisms as follows:
📉 Core logic: Risk-free rate reset puts pressure on crypto asset valuations
When the "risk-free" Treasury yield exceeds 5%, the pricing logic of the entire financial market is reset:
· Opportunity Cost Soars: The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin has risen sharply. Investors are more motivated to move their funds into safe and high-yield U.S. Treasuries.
· Valuation model reconstruction: Higher risk-free rates increase the discount rate for risk assets, directly compressing the valuation multiples for high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
💸 Direct market reaction: capital flight and price drops
The market has responded quickly:
· Price drop: Bitcoin fell below $64,000, and traditional safe-haven assets like gold also plunged.
· Capital flight: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen continuous capital outflows, leading to severe liquidations (for example, over 80,000 liquidations in a single day, totaling $275 million).
· Traditional institutions warn: Bank of America and others have issued warnings stating that the bond market has become the most dangerous variable for risk assets such as AI and crypto.
📊 Macroeconomic Background: Not isolated events, but multiple overlapping risks
This surge in yields is the result of multiple overlapping risks, not a single factor:
· Fluctuating inflation: Middle East tensions have pushed up oil prices, and market confidence in the Federal Reserve's inflation control has declined.
· Fiscal concerns: Markets are beginning to reprice long-term U.S. fiscal and debt sustainability risks.
· Supply-demand imbalance: The U.S. government continues to issue large amounts of bonds, but weakening demand from overseas buyers has pushed up term premiums.
· Policy Divergence: Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, with the probability of a rate hike in September once rising to 65.2%.
· Hedging failure: The traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect disappeared, stocks and bonds fell simultaneously, and Bitcoin, as a risk asset, lost its last hedge protection.
⚠️ Historical perspective: an unprecedented macro test
A notable historical perspective is that since its inception, Bitcoin has never fully experienced a bull-bear cycle in an environment where long-term interest rates consistently remain above 5%. This means the current market environment presents an unprecedented macro test for crypto assets.
💎 Summary and Outlook
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, and by raising risk-free rates, suppressing risk appetite, and extracting market liquidity, it has exerted significant downward pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
As market analysis points out, the market will enter a phase of strong volatility. The stable recovery of risk assets may require waiting for sustained declines in yields. $BTC $SKHYNIX Amazon's Q3 guidance fell short of expectations, capital expenditures were raised, and free cash flow turned negative, yet the stock price still surged over 9% after hours. Behind this seemingly abnormal phenomenon is the market reading a more important long-term signal from the earnings report than the short-term guidance.
📊 Core Earnings Data: A Mix of "Good" and "Bad"
· Q2 performance exceeded expectations across the board: Revenue $200.6 billion (expected $196.47 billion); net profit $62.6 billion (up 245% year-over-year); earnings per share $5.75 (expected $1.82).
· AWS delivered stunning results: Revenue $42.2 billion (up 37% year-over-year, the fastest growth in 18 quarters); operating profit $16.6 billion (up 64% year-over-year), with a profit margin as high as 39.4%.
· Concerns are also evident: Q3 revenue guidance midpoint $199.5 billion (below the expected $203.9 billion); full-year capital expenditure raised to $220 billion; free cash flow turned negative over the past 12 months, with a net outflow of $7.6 billion.
🧠 Why is the Market "Selectively Blind"? — Three Core Rationales
1. AWS's "Certainty" Trumps All
AWS contributes over 60% of operating profit. This quarter, not only did it set a record growth rate, but its profit margin also improved despite high depreciation costs. More importantly, the backlog has reached $496 billion — nearly three years of future revenue is already locked in, giving the market confidence in AWS's high growth certainty.
2. Returns from the AI "Arms Race" Finally Visible
The market's biggest prior concern was the massive AI investment without visible returns. But Amazon responded with data:
· Demand far exceeds supply: CEO Jassy candidly stated that even spending $220 billion, capacity in 2026 and 2027 will still not meet demand.
· Clear return model: Servers and network equipment pay back in less than 3 years; data centers last over 30 years, supporting five to six generations of servers.
· Cost reduction through self-developed chips: Trainium chips offer about 30%-40% better cost-performance than comparable GPUs, saving hundreds of billions in capital expenditure annually.
· Rapid monetization at the application layer: The model hosting platform Bedrock's quarterly customer spending has already exceeded the total of all previous quarters.
3. Contrast Effect Amplifies Optimism
Previously, Google's stock fell after raising capital expenditure, but Amazon's rose. The contrast stems from AWS's scale being much larger than Google Cloud (AWS cumulative revenue nearly $80 billion year-to-date, Google Cloud only $45 billion), and achieving faster growth on a larger base, highlighting its scarcity.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% Fundamental Research Report $STX / Stacks (BTC L2) $0.14 (24h +0.29%)
2026-08-01 17:45 Public Data Snapshot
One-sentence conclusion: Stacks ($STX) has an overall score of 31/100, with ratings mainly relying on narrative. Looking at the three layers, the company team is tightly resourced, the protocol network has weak usage evidence, and token value transfer still needs to be observed.
Stacks (token $STX), BTC L2 track. Focusing on the Bitcoin smart contract layer. Compared to BB, SAVM, and MERL. Traditional collaboration between enterprises relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, which causes gas surges, TPS constraints, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents during high concurrency. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The main evidence comes from announcements, but there is currently no verifiable use. Latest version not found, 0 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $4.21M, TVL $75.07M. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is undisclosed, and token holders' buyback and burn annualized rate have no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 90 valid submissions in 90 days, active contributors not found, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,855,042,716.187809, circulating 1,855,042,716.187809 (100.0%), FDV is $255.02M, next unlock undisclosed (share of circulating undisclosed), burn buyback annualized rate: no clear buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Let's look together with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Stacks $255.02M, BB undisclosed, SAVM undisclosed, MERL undisclosed. In terms of FDV, Stacks $255.02M, BB undisclosed, SAVM undisclosed, MERL undisclosed. Regarding annualized revenue, Stacks has not disclosed, BB has not disclosed, SAVM has not been disclosed, and MERL has not been disclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Stacks has not disclosed, BB has not disclosed, SAVM has not been disclosed, and MERL has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market capitalization $255.02M, FDV $255.02M, P/S N/A (revenue missing, valuation anchor invalid), FDV divided by revenue N/A. Pessimistic outlook: $255.02M at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubles, burns land, enterprise clients are coming in, FDV corresponds to P/S, aligns with the leading stock. Final judgment: Insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (Score 31/100). The token value transmission path is unclear, with only governance incentives. Circulating market capitalization is reasonable or low relative to fundamentals, FDV is close to MC, no major unlock, and selling pressure is manageable. Three major risks: short-term massive unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version release. The above is the logic and judgment of the publicly available information and does not constitute buying or selling advice. Core financial indicators deviate by more than 30%, and the conclusion needs to be reassessed.
After the report bro finishes, take a closer look.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitFundamental Research Report $STX / Stacks (BTC L2) $0.14 (24h +0.29%)
2026-08-01 17:45 Public Data Snapshot
One-sentence conclusion: Stacks ($STX) has an overall score of 31/100, with ratings mainly relying on narrative. Looking at the three layers, the company team is tightly resourced, the protocol network has weak usage evidence, and token value transfer still needs to be observed.
Stacks (token $STX), BTC L2 track. Focusing on the Bitcoin smart contract layer. Compared to BB, SAVM, and MERL. Traditional collaboration between enterprises relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, which causes gas surges, TPS constraints, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents during high concurrency. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The main evidence comes from announcements, but there is currently no verifiable use. Latest version not found, 0 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $4.21M, TVL $75.07M. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is undisclosed, and token holders' buyback and burn annualized rate have no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 90 valid submissions in 90 days, active contributors not found, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,855,042,716.187809, circulating 1,855,042,716.187809 (100.0%), FDV is $255.02M, next unlock undisclosed (share of circulating undisclosed), burn buyback annualized rate: no clear buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Let's look together with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Stacks $255.02M, BB undisclosed, SAVM undisclosed, MERL undisclosed. In terms of FDV, Stacks $255.02M, BB undisclosed, SAVM undisclosed, MERL undisclosed. Regarding annualized revenue, Stacks has not disclosed, BB has not disclosed, SAVM has not been disclosed, and MERL has not been disclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Stacks has not disclosed, BB has not disclosed, SAVM has not been disclosed, and MERL has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market capitalization $255.02M, FDV $255.02M, P/S N/A (revenue missing, valuation anchor invalid), FDV divided by revenue N/A. Pessimistic outlook: $255.02M at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubles, burns land, enterprise clients are coming in, FDV corresponds to P/S, aligns with the leading stock. Final judgment: Insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (Score 31/100). The token value transmission path is unclear, with only governance incentives. Circulating market capitalization is reasonable or low relative to fundamentals, FDV is close to MC, no major unlock, and selling pressure is manageable. Three major risks: short-term massive unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version release. The above is the logic and judgment of the publicly available information and does not constitute buying or selling advice. Core financial indicators deviate by more than 30%, and the conclusion needs to be reassessed.
After the report bro finishes, take a closer look.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitwintermute just pulled $63K of $ENA off binance and sent it straight to arthur hayes. we've seen this wallet do this before, last time was july 30 and $ENA went -7.3% over the next 24h. no promises it repeats, just noting the pattern.
separately, $1.6M total moved onto binance and gate in the last hour, biggest single piece being $890K from 0x28c6…1d60. price has been flat for 4 hours, -0.1%, chart hasn't reacted to any of this yet.
coins on exchanges can be sold, doesn't mean they will. but a named wallet with a track record moving again, plus real size landing on venues while price sleeps, that combo is worth watching. go check the wintermute trace yourself, it's sitting on-chain waiting.$SNDK SanDisk $SKHYNIX Hynix $MU Micron I have a bold guess: the big rally the day before yesterday wasn't a reversal, but a self-preservation move. If the Nasdaq index fell about 1% yesterday, it would trigger systemic sell-off. Combined with the current Asian stock market, especially South Korea's technical bear market, after this sell is triggered by quantitative trading, it is very likely that both sides will fall simultaneously. This is something institutions do not want to see. Institutions know that the index currently relies entirely on technology and storage, so they are helping to maintain a safe margin.
What supports this is a very strange situation: storage technology is rebounding, gold is rising, oil is rising too, and it's very strange. Even a few days later, the CSP test arrived, and the first was Google, which was not so favored: the Gemini 3.5 Pro was postponed. When no one can hold onto current returns and capital expenditures, institutions usually focus on risk aversion, because CSPs are unqualified. CSPs and storage are invested together, and the risk is doubled. But now, contrary to common sense, they choose to open up the ???
Has anyone here analyzed what's going on right now? #30-year US Treasury yield hits a 19-year high #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance misses expectations, but stock price rebounds by 9% Amazon surged 15%, setting a 12-year record; Apple plunged 7% due to supply chain collapse; Nvidia reclaimed the global market cap crown; Philadelphia Semiconductor surged 5% intraday but then crashed rapidly; Novo Nordisk clinical crashed and plunged 8%. The July finale showcased the "winner-takes-all" narrative of AI monetization once again proving its strong performance. 1. Amazon vs. Apple: The Watershed of AI Monetization The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher: the Nasdaq up 1.00%, the S&P 500 up 0.70%, and the Dow up 0.53%. All three major indices posted gains this week, but July showed clear divergence—the Nasdaq fell 3.2%, the S&P slipped 0.13%, and the Dow rose 0.32%, marking four consecutive monthly gains. Amazon surged 15.32%, marking its largest single-day gain since 2012. Q2 revenue exceeded expectations at $200.6 billion, with net profit surging 245%. Core AWS cloud revenue reached $42.2 billion, up 37%, with operating margin soaring to 39.4%. The logic behind the market's buying frenzy is simple: AWS is turning AI into a money-printing machine. Apple plunged 7.35%, marking its largest drop in 18 months. Q3 revenue was 109.4 billion, up 16%, and iPhone revenue was 54.3 billion, up 22%. These were already impressive, but Q4 guidance was only 9%-11%, below Wall Street's 12.1% expectation. Cook's final earnings report of the "farewell season" left no decent impression—terminal demand did not weaken, but capacity was choked. Shovel sellers make money, gold diggers are trapped. Amazon is selling computing power itself, while Apple is being hurt by AI-driven chip prices. 2. Chip Crash: After a 5% intraday surgewas supposed to sleep… charts said nope 😂
$BTC chilling near 63k. $ETH a bit stronger around 1,868. Still leaning bearish though. 15m and 1H look soft. If BTC pops to 63.6k with no volume, I’m fading it, not chasing.
Yes I’m long a small BTC from 62.8k. Not because I got bullish. Price hit my level so I took it. Even at 100x I sized down instead of yolo.
Outside crypto: $SNDK and Micron still weak. SK hynix holding up better. $SOL, $BNB, $XRP don’t look long-worthy yet.
Plan is clean:
Watch 63.5k resistance vs 62.5k support.
No break with conviction = no trade.
Missing beats forcing.
$SNDK $ETH $BTC #DailyOrbit
#AMZNMissesButRallies Amazon's decision to raise its capital expenditure to $220 billion by 2026 has pushed the arms race for computing power among tech giants to a new scale, also alerting the market to inflationary pressures on AI hardware costs.
The continuous rise in memory prices has directly driven up server procurement costs, significantly increasing the capital tied up in the hardware supply chain.
Buy-side institutions are beginning to reassess their positions in the tech sector, with expectations of short-term free cash flow pressure suppressing risk appetite for high-valuation assets.
If supply chain cost inflation cannot be offset by accelerated revenue growth from AWS business, the high capital expenditure will directly become a risk factor suppressing the overall valuation of tech stocks.
If the expectation of rapid payback on server investments within three years is realized, the improvement in long-term free cash flow will attract allocation funds to increase holdings in $AMZN, but this path fails if AWS annual revenue growth slows.
If uncontrolled memory price increases cause capital expenditure to further overshoot in 2026, risk appetite contraction will trigger profit-taking in the tech sector, unless the supply-demand imbalance for computing power is alleviated early in 2027.
Whether market concerns about a computing power bubble are valid depends on whether the over 30-year lifespan of data centers can amortize the initial sunk costs across subsequent generations of chip upgrades.
In the next 7 days, the key variable to watch is the pricing trend of core memory suppliers in the semiconductor supply chain, which will directly determine the market's revision magnitude of cost inflation expectations for tech giants.
#白宫回应将决定CLARITY法案下周能否投票 #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% #Tether季度盈利15亿，黄金增至146吨"24-Hour High-Altitude Plunge! Fed Hawkish Shockwave Sweeps, BTC and ETH Both Break Down!"
🔍 24-Hour Comparison: Who's Frenziedly Dumping Behind This "Flash Crash Cooling"?
From yesterday's "bullish buildup" to today's "breakdown and downgrade," the extreme shift in long and short positions over these 24 hours reveals two fundamental truths that cannot be ignored:
1. The adverse backlash of the "Fed Hawkish Revolt": Although interest rates appear unchanged on the surface, an extremely rare hawkish internal conflict erupted—3 voting members openly defected, clearly demanding a rate hike! The new chairman Wash's iron-fisted tough stance directly shattered the market's rate cut illusions. The smartest money on Wall Street, right after the decision, didn't wait until this afternoon; they started clearing positions and taking profits pre-market, instantly draining liquidity from risk assets.
2. The "targeted liquidation" of bulls with high leverage: The strong bullish influencers from a few days ago attracted many retail investors to follow suit with high leverage. Today's mild downward drift was precisely the quant bots exploiting the liquidity vacuum before the weekend to trigger precise stop-loss liquidations of bulls' life-or-death positions. The strong market makers use this most extreme chain of dumping to force out the unstable chips held by retail investors. #30YYieldAt19YHigh #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay 🔴 $ETH Bearish Alert 📉
A $18.628K long liquidation at $1,862.84 signals a significant flush of leveraged bulls, adding fresh short-term selling pressure. The liquidation zone around $1,862.84 now acts as a key resistance level until buyers reclaim it with strength.
💰 Entry Zone: $1,860–$1,863 (on rejection)
🎯 Targets: $1,845 → $1,825 → $1,800
🛑 Stop Loss: Above $1,880
📍 Support: $1,845–$1,825
📍 Resistance: $1,862.84–$1,880
As long as ETH remains below $1,862.84, sellers are likely to maintain control, targeting $1,845 first and $1,825 next. A decisive breakdown below support could extend losses toward $1,800, while a sustained recovery above $1,880 would invalidate the bearish setup and increase the probability of a short-term reversal.
Strength Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5 Bearish) — A $18.628K long liquidation reflects strong leveraged unwinding and keeps short-term downside pressure active
#MSFT450BInADay #AMZNMissesButRallies #30YYieldAt19YHigh The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury surged to 5.23%, the highest since 2007. Simply put: the U.S. government borrows money over a 30-year term, and the interest cost has risen to the highest in nearly 20 years. Behind this is investors collectively "voting with their feet"—the Federal Reserve claims it wants to bring inflation down, but after seven consecutive months of delayed rate hikes, the market no longer believes it. As a result, long-term rates soared on their own, effectively tightening the bond market on behalf of the Federal Reserve. In plain language, this event has the following impacts: 1. Borrowing is more expensive—mortgages, corporate loans, and government loans have all risen. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is the "benchmark" for all long-term loan rates in the U.S. When it rises, ordinary people's mortgage rates will follow, and the cost for companies to issue bonds and raise funds will also increase. Businesses and individuals looking to buy homes are under even greater pressure. 2. People holding old bonds lose money. Bond prices and yields go against each other—when yields rise, bond prices fall. Investors holding long-term U.S. Treasuries have already lost quite a bit on their books. The largest long-term U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) has already fallen 3.8% this year, essentially giving back last year's gains. 3. The stock market is also under pressure—money flows from the stock market to the bond market. US Treasury yields are the "anchor" of risk-free rates. High yields mean two things: the cost of borrowing money for companies rises, profits are squeezed, and buying government bonds can yield stable returns of over 5%. Many funds withdraw from volatile stock markets and shift to bonds, resulting in U.S. stocks coming under direct pressure and falling—the S&P 500 fell 1.5% that day. The latest quarterly report from Fidelity's digital asset team laid out the current market structure. Data shows that the market capitalization-weighted NUPL indicator has slipped to -0.01, leaving the entire digital asset market below the breakeven line. This figure is glaring, indicating that unrealized profits in the market are almost exhausted and that a real recovery is still far off. It is worth noting the internal cracks in the three major assets. $BTC's NUPL still holds positive values, while $ETH and $SOL are both mired in unrealized losses. $BTC acts as a market stabilizer, single-handedly offsetting a significant portion of unrealized losses from other assets. But the report also frankly states that this single asset alone is not enough to turn the portfolio positive. If you remove the weight of $BTC and look only at $ETH and $SOL, the portfolio looks even worse, indicating that funds are heavily concentrated at the top, with selling pressure on other coins being heavier than expected. This divergence actually points to a harsh reality: liquidity lacks a broad rally, only a need for safe-haven assets. $BTC judging from the current level around $63,000, although it hasn't been unaffected, it remains the first choice for institutions and retail investors seeking to withdraw funds. In contrast, $ETH and $SOL lack their own independent catalysts, making it difficult to attract incremental funds in, and the sustainability of their short-term rebound is questionable. For holders, this period is destined to be tough, and the formation of market bottoms often requires longer periods of low volatility tempering, so it's important to prepare for a protracted battle. $BTC #财报观察员: Asia1. Profit-taking at high levels (the most direct reason)
After a tenfold increase in one year, the shares became extremely crowded, and after the June peak, early capital entered the market and took profits; After quantitative funds break below the key moving average, they automatically stop losses, forming a pattern of heavy selling. On July 28, the price plunged 14.25% in a single day, with the largest drop exceeding 50% for the month.
2. Institutional cycle perspective shift
Leading institutions such as Morgan Stanley warn: the price increase cycles for NAND and DRAM are highly likely to peak in Q4 2026, downstream cloud vendors' inventories will begin to rise, storage profitability upside has peaked, and funds will be able to avoid cyclical downturn risks in advance; Samsung's better-than-expected earnings report turned positive news into negative ones, dragging down the full storage sector.
3. Cooling of AI capital spending expectations
The market began to question whether cloud vendors' AI investment growth far outpaced revenue growth, questioning the return on hardware capital expenditure, and shifting funds from AI hardware (storage, chips) to AI software sectors, with the storage sector collectively being sold off.
4. Competitive pressure on domestic storage is emerging
Changxin Memory listed on the A-share market, raising large-scale funds to expand domestic NAND production. The market is concerned that after 2027, the release of domestic capacity will squeeze the market share of overseas memory manufacturers, suppressing SanDisk's long-term valuation ceiling.
5. Bears are fermenting again + valuations are overvalued
Even though the stock price has been halved, the current P/E ratio (TTM) still exceeds 40 times, at a historic high; The market is concerned that Samsung and SK Hynix's future expansions will divert orders, putting SanDisk's market share at risk of being squeezed. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9% The biggest retail trap isn't price. It's unit price illusion.
Buying high FDV + low float projects = you become VC exit liquidity. The chart looks "cheap," but behind it are monthly unlocks ready to dump. When those tokens hit, spot buyers are forced to absorb the sell pressure. Unlock = dump. That's the structural reality.
We've seen it on repeat:
L2s + infra: $ARB $OP $STRK $ZK $BLAST $MANTA $ALT $DYM $TIA
L1s + oracles: $SUI $APT $SEI $PYTH $JUP $W $EIGEN $REZ $ETHFI
All of them get crushed when big unlocks land. The Sword of Damocles is real.
Capital rotates to where supply is clean.
DeFi + RWA leaders win here: $ONDO $MKR $AAVE $UNI $PENDLE $ENA $SNX $CRV $COMP $LDO $RPL. Real revenue, predictable unlocks, no surprises.
Same in AI + DePIN with actual demand: $TAO $FET $NEAR $RNDR $AKT $AIOZ $GRT $THETA $FIL $AR
Gaming gets wrecked instead: $GALA $BEAM $IMX $AXS $SAND $MANA $PIXEL $PORTAL $PRIME $ILV. Constant ecosystem unlocks kill the trend.
Irony? Burned retail ends up in memes: $PEPE $WIF $BONK $FLOKI $POPCAT $BOME $DOGE $SHIB $MOG $BRETT. No VC cliff. No unlock calendar. Just fair launch.
Check tokenomics before price.
#AMZNMissesButRallies
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
#MSFT450BInADay The biggest risk in the current altcoin market is missing the fact that the conditions that undermine the bullish narrative are already in effect. Is the current market a rising phase for all altcoins, or is it a liquidity compression into a very small number of tokens? The data presented in the original text is clear. Liquidity is concentrating in specific tokens such as JTO, JELLY, OPG, LAB, BSB, ALLO, CHIP, while funds are exiting many tokens including BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, VIRTUAL, IP. This is not a broad altcoin rally but a phase of selection and concentration. The market lacks the liquidity to lift all coins simultaneously, and capital flows only into tokens with clear direction and narrative. In this structure, BTC's role is decisive. While BTC still dominates overall liquidity, ETH functions as an inflow point for institutional funds, and SOL provides beta as a means of transaction. TAO and WLD represent the AI narrative, HYPE is a gauge of risk appetite, DOGE and ZEC reflect individual investor sentiment I hold Bitcoin for a reason that few people mention. It means I don't have to spend too much time predicting others.
When buying stocks, you need to study management, products, industry competition, and financial reports; When buying a house, you need to study population, interest rates, and supply and demand. Many assets essentially serve as predictions about what others will do in the next ten years.
But Bitcoin is different. I don't need to predict which company will win, nor do I need to judge which CEO is better. I just need to answer one question: In the next decade, will humanity increasingly need a global asset that doesn't belong to any country, any company, and doesn't depend on any management?
If the answer is yes, then most of the remaining matters are just a matter of time.
I hold Bitcoin not because I believe it will always rise, but because it reduces my judgment of "people" and allows me to bet more on a long-term trend. Sometimes, the biggest cost of investing isn't money, but time and knowledge, and Bitcoin has helped me save on both.
$BTC BTC's biggest recent change is not falling below $63,000.
It's that ETF funds are starting to change.
Many people watch the candlestick every day.
I now prefer to watch ETFs.
The reason is simple.
Over the past year, almost every BTC trend revolves around one keyword:
Institutional funding.
A few days ago, when BTC dropped to around $63,000, many people's first reaction was that the technical situation had deteriorated.
But I was more focused on something else.
BTC spot ETFs, which had previously seen continuous outflows, have recently started to fluctuate.
This indicates that institutions are not unanimously bearish but are readjusting their positions.
This stage is the hardest to trade.
Because prices will fluctuate back and forth, washing both bulls and bears.
What truly determines the next wave direction isn't who is shouting $100,000.
It's about who keeps buying.
There is another detail that many people overlook.
Recently, earnings reports from Microsoft and Amazon reignited the AI rally, with U.S. tech stocks seeing renewed capital inflows, and U.S. equity funds recording their first weekly net inflow in nearly three weeks. Risk appetite is recovering. (Reuters)
If risk assets continue to recover and BTC ETFs resume continuous net inflows, the probability of BTC challenging previous highs will increase significantly.
On the other hand,
If ETFs continue to see continuous outflows, even if BTC occasionally rebounds, I prefer to interpret it as a sentiment correction rather than the start of a new trend.
So now I look at ETF data almost every day.
Because the price can be deceiving.
Funds rarely scam people.
Many people trade BTC only by looking at candlesticks.
I'd rather look at it first:
Today, are institutions still buying?
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR. $ETH $BTC #KOSPISurges14%
When I used a Luoyang shovel to pierce through this 17% thick layer of blood-red, solidified soil, what fell from the courtyard was not fly ash, but a heavy bronze artifact weighing 28%.
Three consecutive days of decline, a devastating 17% plunge, causing the entire semiconductor plain to collapse in wails. At that moment, countless fanatical chips turned to dust in a panicked retreat and trampling; this place looked like a completely overthrown, forgotten empire. Yet on July 31, beneath this scorched earth, an epic 14% intraday surge erupted, setting the market's most wild single-day gain! SK Hynix surged 28% in a single day, and Samsung Electronics also managed to pull up a staggering 26%.
Only by peeling back the thick veins of history can you see the three geological underlying forces behind this reversal:
First, the totem effect of the emperor's personal campaign—SK leader Chey Tae-won personally opened his warehouse to buy SK Hynix chips for the first time in history, much like ancient kings casting giant shields of national gold into a giant shield when a city was about to collapse;
Second, with military supplies from across the ocean, US storage giants have rebounded strongly, sending fresh water across the ocean to help resolve the siege;
Third, the powerful intervention of the treasury priests, rare foreign exchange controls, forcibly pushed the won up by 2% to 1418, cutting off the escape route for short speculators.
But the most heart-wrenching aspect of this epic upheaval is undoubtedly the intense pulse between the high-leverage single-share derivatives (XSKHY, KR200, SAMSUNG) and US token $XUSAR launched since May. Those leveraged positions forced to be liquidated during the three-day crash are like burial goods hastily buried in ancient tomb ruins, eternally sleeping in the fault lines of candlesticks; And when the rebound hurricane hits, leverage tools instantly become the sharp blades in the hands of the tomb raiders, amplifying the bloody taste of the short squeeze to the extreme.
The alternation of bull and bear cycles follows historical rhythms, sharing the same rhyme. For thousands of years, humanity has never changed its fear of crisis and greed for profit; the derivatives merely compress the time between civilization's destruction and revival into just a few hours.
When the empire's priest personally raised the bronze sword, the giant beast buried deep underground violently revived in broad daylight.Uphold connects crypto and US stocks with one click, covering 4,000+ targets: Exchanges collectively transform into a "cross-market bridge"
The crypto market remained sluggish on Saturday (August 1): CoinDesk data shows Bitcoin hovered around $64,000, with 24-hour fluctuations of just a few tenths of a percentage point, and most major coins closed negative on the week; during the same period, South Korea's Kospi index surged 17% in a single day, and Samsung and SK Hynix surged over 23%. The contrast between the "AI frenzy and crypto quietness" remains glaring.
But the industry's moves are anything but quiet. According to crypto.news, crypto trading platform Uphold has officially launched a "one-click" crypto-to-stock trading feature, covering over 4,000 US stocks and ETFs—users don't need to sell crypto assets to fiat currency or transfer them to brokerage accounts; instead, they can directly convert BTC, ETH, and other holdings into US stock exposure.
This news may seem ordinary, but it actually hits the core rhythm of exchange transformation in 2026. The business models of traditional crypto exchanges are under pressure: Yahoo Finance data shows Coinbase's Q2 net loss exceeded expectations, and after the earnings report, its stock price plunged more than 10% in a single day—the era of relying solely on spot trading fees is over.
Uphold's "one-click cross-market" is the solution: instead of competing on liquidity within crypto, it's better to become a "bridge" connecting the crypto world and traditional capital markets. This is the same trend as BNY moving fund registration on-chain and Morgan Stanley launching a stakingly ETH/SOL spot ETF—compliance giants are welding the two markets together.
Looking deeper, this feature redefines the "uses" of crypto assets. In the past, BTC and ETH exports were mainly exchanged for fiat currency or payments; Now, they have become "fuel" for the US stock market, with one-click exchange meaning crypto funds can seamlessly flow to AI and tech giants like Nvidia and Apple. For platforms, this is incremental growth, but for the crypto market, it is a potential outflow channel—when risk appetite recovers, funds may flow directly into the equity market through these products.
My judgment is: by 2026, competition in the crypto industry will have upgraded from "coin-to-coin trading" to "cross-asset channels." For investors, these tools reduce the friction between deposits and withdrawals and are worth experiencing; But it's important to note that while platforms are encouraging "crypto to exchange for US stocks," the crypto market's own incremental capital narrative needs a new engine—closely monitoring August inflation data and ETF fund flows is more meaningful than tracking candlesticks.
(Data sources: crypto.news, CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance)From the perspective of quasi-exchange assets, Polymarket can be divided into four parts:
- pUSD balance: $475 million
- Polymarket TVL $318 million
- Polymarket US open interest is $77.72 million
- Polymarket Perp TVL $31.81 million
Polymarket's asset peaks occurred during the World Cup, with four peaks once exceeding $1.1 billion
Although the decline compared to the peak has declined, the degree of daily trading volume decline is still within a controllable range compared to recent times, and the funds retained are still manageable$GIGGLE Gigg's rise is attributed to trader FOMO, which lacks physical support and strong players like Lab, so I chose to chase shorts
(These tokens are not officially issued; the community issues them themselves. Generally, when these coins rally, holders run faster than anyone else. See the detailed analysis below.)
1. Direct Catalyst for Price Increases
1. CZ public opinion effect, igniting community FOMO
Binance founder CZ publicly praised the Giggle Academy charity education project. Although it clearly stated that the GIGGLE token was not officially issued, the market still saw it as strong endorsement. It spread widely on social media, attracting massive retail investor influx and a several-fold surge in trading volume in a short period.
2. Fee donation + burn benefits are being implemented
Binance announced it will donate 50% of GIGGLE trading fees to Giggle Academy; After receiving the tokens, institutions burned half of them directly and exchanged the other half for BNB for charity. The market interpreted this as deflationary positive, forming a "trade as burn donation" narrative and amplify bullish expectations.
3. Exchange spot and contract support
Officially launched spot trading on leading exchanges, labeled with Seed's high volatility, and opened perpetual contracts; The futures market brings incremental capital, while short squeezes and short squeezes have emerged, and short liquidation buy orders have further pushed prices higher.
2. Narrative Logic: The unique story of charity MEME coins
GIGGLE is a charity meme coin on the BSC chain. Each on-chain transaction incurs a 5% fee, which is automatically converted into BNB and donated to the children's education charity Giggle Academy, with on-chain donation records verifiable.
• Distinguished from ordinary purely hyped MEME coins, it delivers an emotional narrative of "speculation while doing charity," with strong community cohesion and quick rally when catalyzed by news.
• Note: The token itself is not officially issued by the charity organization but is a community-generated meme token. The charity organization is not responsible for token price fluctuations.
3. Promotion of transactions and on-chain levels
1. Thin circulating stock and concentrated chips
On-chain data shows that the top ten wallets hold a large amount of total supply, with limited actual circulating tokens in the market; You don't need massive capital to drive a sharp spike in the token price.
2. Basis for oversold rebounds
All-time high of $281, previously deeply pulled back and now at a relatively low level; During market volatility, funds spill out of mainstream coins, seeking small-cap, highly elastic meme games, with GIGGLE becoming a hot target.
3. Short squeeze in futures to amplify gains
After perpetual contracts were opened, a large number of traders were bearish and short; After the market started, short positions were repeatedly liquidated, while forced buy orders formed positive feedback and further accelerated the rise.
IV. Major Risk Points (Must Be Taken Seriously)
1. Fragile narrative: Once CZ loses his voice, or a public welfare organization clarifies and cuts ties, the market quickly retreats; Historically, there have been multiple instances of positive rallies followed by single-day plunges of over 70%.
2. Chip risk: Large holders and early wallet holders have a high proportion of wallets, so after a rally, they can dump large amounts and sell at any time.
3. Two-way contract squeezing: After a sharp surge, it is very easy to reverse, causing both long and short positions to be liquidated, and the risk of loss from leveraged participation is extremely high.
4. No business launches: No actual product returns, prices are driven entirely by social media hype and capital sentiment; once the hype fades, the market immediately falls.
Market observation signals
• Rapid decline in social media popularity and shrinking trading volume are early signs of a market peak;
• Large whale wallets are continuously transferring out or selling, so be alert to the risk of sell-offs;
• Funding rates remain high, indicating a short squeeze and the possibility of a reversal and plunge at any time. "Two Positions, One Direction: MU Short + ETH Long, Both Still Held"
---
📊 Current Positions (Verifiable in Live Trading)
Asset Direction Quantity Cost Current Price Floating P/L
MU Short 70 $855.61 ~$820 +$2,600
ETH Long 45 ~$1,884 ~$1,866 -$810
Total +$1,790
📉 MU: Dropped from 930 to 818 on Friday, short position still held
Why the drop?
· Three Federal Reserve officials publicly support rate hikes, rate concerns directly suppress Micron
· Profit-taking after Thursday’s 18% surge
· But fundamentals remain intact: Apple says memory costs will still rise, Amazon revises capital expenditure up to $220 billion
Outlook for next week?
· Key support: $785, holding means consolidation and bottoming, breaking means looking at $750-$720
· Key resistance: $850-$880, breaking above relieves downward pressure
· My stop loss is at $980, quite far, no rush.
📈 ETH: Holding at 1850, long position still held
Why buy near 1850?
· 50-day moving average + buying support zone, tested multiple times without breaking
· Spot ETF continuous net inflows, staking rate hits all-time high
· More resilient than BTC (BTC down 7.5%, ETH only down 5.1%)
Outlook for next week?
· Key support: $1,850, holding means rebound to $1,900-$1,930
· Breaking down means looking at $1,800-$1,780, stop loss set at $1,800
· Direction unchanged, just a matter of timing.
🎯 Logic of the two positions’ interaction
· If MU falls + ETH rises → double profit, net asset value accelerates growth
· If MU falls + ETH sideways → short position profits, long position waits for rebound
· If MU rebounds + ETH rises → hedge, net asset value volatility is small
· Worst case: MU rebounds but ETH does not follow → slight net asset value pullback
Currently, MU’s downtrend remains unchanged, ETH shows signs of bottoming at 1850, portfolio is in a favorable position.
📌 3-day performance (live trading with copy trading)
· Return: +124%
· Win rate: 91.11%
· Profit-loss ratio: 1:2.86
Copy trading is open, judge for yourself. 🧐
#Micron #Ethereum #ShortSelling #USStocks #FuturesTrading #CopyTrading Macro Hawkish: The Fed held steady in July but remained hawkish, raising the probability of a rate hike in September to 82%; Oil prices approaching 90 reinforce inflation, putting pressure on risk asset valuations.
Regulatory gap: U.S. CLARITY Act legislation stalled (approval probability ~30%), SEC policy uncertainty suppresses ETH ETF increment expectations. Seasonal + Linkage: August was historically weak, BTC plunged from 65.3k to 62.3k last night, dragging ETH down; DeFi funds are fleeing, and ETF inflows are unstable. Weak relative strength: ETH/BTC has not broken out of an independent rally, so its rebound resilience is weaker than BTC's, so funds prefer BTC as a safe havenThe Federal Reserve is about to make a big move. Chairman Wash is pondering one thing: to cut several of the eight policy meetings a year. If this is confirmed, it will definitely be the biggest change in the Fed's playbook in recent years. It's worth noting that the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee holds eight meetings a year, unfailingly and has become the biological clock of the financial markets. Whether to raise or cut interest rates or hold on is all decided at these few tables. $BTC The news broke on August 1, with four insiders giving the New York Times the full story. At this week's internal meeting, Wash brought up the issue, discussing how the law sets a minimum number of meetings, and also discussed what the timeline would look like if adjustments were made. However, the meeting didn't rush everyone to discuss it comprehensively. Walsh's point was: everyone should first sort out their thoughts and provide feedback later. $GRVT This matter is sensitive because the pace of the meeting directly affects how often the market receives signals from the Federal Reserve. Fewer meetings mean the decision-making window is thinning, and the statements and press conferences after each meeting carry more weight, so the market must be extremely vigilant when interpreting them. On the other hand, is Walsh's approach also paving the way for the later dilution of dot plots and the weakening of forward-looking guidance? The New York Times mentioned that the market has long been watching whether he will make moves in these two areas. Of course, it's still in the wind-off phase, so the road to release is still uncertain. But the fire has already been ignited; now it depends on how each side responds.🚨 A weaker U.S. dollar is often seen as positive for crypto—but this time, the market isn't following the usual script.
Over the past few days, the Japanese yen gained strength while the U.S. dollar softened, a combination that typically supports risk assets. Yet Bitcoin and Ethereum have remained under pressure instead of pushing higher.
The contrast became even more noticeable as traditional markets moved higher while crypto continued to underperform.
So what's holding crypto back?
The missing piece appears to be liquidity. Favorable macro conditions alone don't guarantee higher crypto prices if fresh capital isn't entering the market. At the moment, investors seem to be allocating more money toward equities than digital assets.
The lesson: Macro signals provide context, but price action has the final say. A bullish backdrop doesn't always translate into bullish crypto performance.
Stay focused on liquidity, market structure, and capital flows—not just headlines.
$BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #Macro #Markets #DailyOrbit
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
#AMZNMissesButRallies
#MSFT450BInADay
$BTC
$ETH
$SNDK There's a popular joke online—if you spent it in 2015
He spent ten thousand dollars to buy ETH, and by now, it has become $200 million.
It sounded easy: "Just hold onto it." ”
But if you really lay out the profit curve, you'll find those 100,000 points
ETH's journey is simply beyond what a person can endure:
10,000 to 1,000,000 to 14,000,000≥ 393,000
1.2 million 93 million 5.3 million 323 million
54 million out of 200 million
Ask yourself one more question:
Can you really hold on? $ETH $BTC Tether, the barometer of the crypto world, has just delivered a rather disappointing report card. According to the financial report released on August 1, the stablecoin giant's "safety cushion," its excess reserves, has sharply diminished within a quarter. Remember the $8.2 billion surplus that reassured the market three months ago? Now, that figure has shrunk by more than half, dropping to $4.1 billion. A full $4.1 billion vanished into thin air—even in the crypto world, that's a staggering sum. $BTC What's even more concerning is the overall profit and loss ledger. In the first half of the year, Tether recorded a loss of $3.2 billion. Considering they proudly announced a $1 billion profit in the first quarter, a simple calculation shows they likely lost over $4 billion in the just-concluded second quarter. $USDT Of course, Tether's business model is no secret. Their "printing press" relies on holding large amounts of US Treasuries, Bitcoin, and gold to generate profits. But success and failure also mean failure; when the crypto or traditional markets experience sharp fluctuations, the fair value changes of these assets are directly "slashed" in the financial reports. This big hole inevitably brings to mind the price trends of core assets like Bitcoin during the same period. Looking at it over the past year, the comparison becomes even clearer. In the second quarter of 2025, Tether can proudly report a net profit of $4.9 billion. But this year, excluding asset price fluctuations, the "net operating profit" remains at only $1.5 billion🔥 SanDisk 15M intraday plan: prioritize bears on rebound, if it falls below 1210, look at 1191
$SNDK After a rapid pullback from around 1402, it is currently trading sideways at a low level.
This looks like a stabilization, but it's not yet clear that the bottom has been reached:
The 4H downward structure has not yet been repaired;
The 1H was in a narrow consolidation after a sharp drop;
The 15M screenshot price is 1224.12, still below the MA200 at 1250.16 and MA120 at 1265.84.
So the current priority should be:
Short on rebound > go long against the trend
No chasing in the middle of the range, just waiting for triggers at key positions.
1. Preferred solution: short on rebound
Focus on the 1228–1250 range.
If the rebound is clearly blocked after entering this area and the 15M reclaim below 1228, bearish conditions hold.
Plan invalid: 15M closes above 1266.
Lower targets: 1215 → 1210 → 1191.
2. Breakout plan: Follow after the breakdown
If the 15M physical price closes below 1210 and the subsequent rebound still fails to reclaim 1215, continue to observe the downward continuation.
Plan failed: 15M recovered above 1218.
Lower targets: 1200 → 1191.
3. Alternative: Go long after confirmation
Going long is not the current top choice; you must wait for the price to prove yourself.
Only if the 15M close above 1235 and pullback to 1230–1235 can it hold, then consider continuing the recovery.
Plan failed: 15M recovered below 1228.
Upper targets: 1250 → 1266.
Key points for judgment:
A valid breakout only recognizes "15M physical closing + confirmation of pullback," and insertion during the session does not count.
The last 15M candle on the chart has not yet closed and should not be taken prematurely as a breakout signal. The most important thing to avoid right now is chasing rallies and selling down in the 1215–1228 range.
For learning and exchange purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.Why is the market "dawdling"? Five major reasons for recent sideways or declines: #30-year US Treasury yield hits a 19-year high
Macroeconomic pressure: Expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes are heating up
In July, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but took a hawkish stance. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to about 82%. Bitcoin does not generate cash flow; valuations depend entirely on liquidity expectations, and rising rate hike expectations directly trigger sell-offs.
Geopolitical shocks
On August 1, Trump made tough remarks about Iran, saying it would "deal them a very heavy blow," followed by reports that the U.S. planned a new round of attacks on Iran over the weekend. Following the news, global risk assets collectively came under pressure, with Brent crude approaching $90.5, further strengthening inflation expectations.
Institutional funds continue to flow out
Bitcoin spot ETFs have previously seen net outflows for eight consecutive weeks, with the net redemption total in Q2 2026 marking the largest quarterly outflow since the product launched in January 2024. Citi even pessimistically assumes that ETFs will not see any net inflows within the next year.
Mining companies are selling off on a large scale
In the first quarter of 2026, publicly listed Bitcoin miners sold off more than 32,000 Bitcoins in total, exceeding the total for all of 2025. The root cause is the deterioration of mining economics after the halving in April 2024, with some mining companies producing as high as $78,000 and spot prices only $63,000–65,000.
Month-end rebalancing and option expiration
Before the end of the month, traders reduce risk and lock in profits, increasing selling pressure; At the same time, a large number of BTC and ETH options expired on August 1, often causing sharp price fluctuations. Technically, Bitcoin pulled back after hitting the key resistance at $66,300. Everyone loves to frame $ONDO and $LINK as competitors. The reality is much more interesting—they're solving different parts of the same problem.
Ondo Finance focuses on bringing real-world assets on-chain. It has become a major player in tokenized U.S. Treasuries and equities, with billions in total value locked and a broad catalog of tokenized assets.
Chainlink, meanwhile, provides the infrastructure that allows tokenized assets to move and interact securely across blockchain ecosystems. Its oracle and interoperability technology underpins many institutional tokenization projects and secures tens of billions of dollars in on-chain value.
This is why major institutional pilots often involve both technologies. One creates the tokenized asset, while the other helps deliver trusted data and cross-chain connectivity needed for settlement.
The real distinction isn't ONDO vs. LINK—it's where each sits in the value chain.
Another key difference is token economics. LINK already has mechanisms that strengthen its ecosystem through network activity, while ONDO's long-term value capture depends on how its governance and future protocol economics continue to evolve.
Instead of asking which one replaces the other, the better question is how both could benefit as tokenized real-world assets continue gaining institutional adoption.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
#AMZNMissesButRallies
#MSFT450BInADay
$BTC
$ETH
$SNDK There's a popular joke online—if you spent it in 2015
He spent ten thousand dollars to buy ETH, and by now, it has become $200 million.
It sounded easy: "Just hold onto it." ”
But if you really lay out the profit curve, you'll find those 100,000 points
ETH's journey is simply beyond what a person can endure:
10,000 to 1,000,000 to 14,000,000≥ 393,000
1.2 million 93 million 5.3 million 323 million
54 million out of 200 million
Ask yourself one more question:
Can you really hold on? $ETH $BTC 当多数人还在睡梦中时，链上捕捉到了一笔不寻常的巨鲸异动。一个被标记为与全球资管巨头富达密切相关的钱包地址，在短短一小时内，将足足26万枚以太坊尽数转出，分散存入了三个独立的钱包。按照当时的市场均价计算，这笔资产的总额高达约5亿美元，体量之大瞬间触动了整个加密社区敏感的神经。 链上数据显示，这笔转账并非临时起意，而是一场精心筹备的“资产迁移”。接收资金的三个钱包地址并非新创建的空壳，它们的历史记录可以追溯到六个月前$ETH 彼时，它们便已从富达关联地址处获得了首批注资。这一次的分配动作极其工整，近乎严格按照比例执行： 第一个地址接收了95,000枚ETH，价值约1.8253亿美元； 第二个地址接收了87,000枚ETH，价值约1.6723亿美元； 第三个地址则接收了78,000枚ETH，价值约1.4979亿美元。 三笔资金几乎等量齐观，这种高度规整的操作手法，透露出强烈的机构行事风格，绝非普通散户或一般投资者的手笔。 对于这笔巨额转账的真实意图，市场迅速分成了几派观点。最主流的看法将其解读为一次常规的内部托管整理与钱包归集。作为管理着超过4.2万亿美元资产的金融巨擘，富达自2021年起#特朗普称对伊失去信心, preparing for another strike
Trump said something yesterday, and the market moved first.
He said he is "losing faith" in Iran and threatened to strike "very hard." Before the words even landed, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz had already dropped by 77%. Shipping insurance costs are rising, oil prices are increasing, and risk aversion has taken the lead in policy measures.
Behind this matter lies a deeper game: is the market truly trading geopolitical risks, or is Trump using market expectations to push policy backwards? When he repeatedly states his stance on Middle East issues, the market will preemptively absorb the impact of the actual strike, and when it comes time to act, it may actually lead to a "boot on the ground" reverse trend.
This is a game between "expectations and facts."
Back to the crypto market. With rising oil prices and rising inflation expectations, the September rate cut window is narrowing. For Bitcoin, short-term macro headwinds are accumulating, and before the direction becomes clear, it's better to watch more and move less than to force trades. But in the medium to long term, each round of friction in the sovereign credit system will force some funds to reassess the allocation value of non-sovereign assets.
However, in the short term, it seems the drop has already hit its mark. The specifics still depend on how things unfold next week. Be patient—good opportunities need to be waited for
$BTC $ETH $SOL Why is HYPE falling? Capital can explain everything. Looking at ETF data, there has been a continuous net outflow over the past month. Under such circumstances, how can it rise?
HYPE has been continuously adjusting recently. The core contradiction is not a collapse in project logic, but that the high-valued asset is undergoing a process of "unlocking pressure + capital repricing."
From the ETF capital perspective, recently, HYPE-related ETFs have had a total net outflow of about 520,000 tokens, with Bitwise showing the most obvious outflow. This indicates that short-term institutional funds are more focused on profit-taking adjustments rather than continuously chasing highs and accumulating. The market has entered a stage of chip redistribution.
Looking at the supply structure, HYPE has a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with about 200 million currently circulating. The real market focus is on the team and core contributors holding about 238 million tokens, accounting for 23.8%, which will continue to be released in the future.
The pressure brought by the recent unlocking of tokens worth hundreds of millions is essentially the market preemptively digesting future supply expectations.
Technically, HYPE has fallen from above $70 to around $52, entering a previously dense chip area.
$50 is the current key support. If it breaks below, it may further test the $45-$48 range; if it stabilizes above $60 again, it means the market has re-accepted the high valuation.
In the long term, HYPE's biggest advantages remain real revenue, trading volume, and ecological foundation, but the short-term price depends on one core issue: whether the speed of new capital inflow can exceed the speed of unlocking releases.
Good projects also need good prices. The real opportunity is often not chasing the market when it’s crazy, but finding value in the mispricing caused by unlocking panic. Oh my god, I haven't checked the chip structure for a few days, and when I checked the data, I was shocked.
On URPD, the $63,000 level is a towering pillar, having accumulated as much as 890,000 BTC as of today.
From what I remember, such fierce bull-bear battles over a single price have probably been the first time since the end of 2025.
If Coinbase hadn't locked 550,000 coins in the $83,000-$84,000 range, it would likely have already exceeded 1 million coins at $63,000.
What does 1 million coins mean? accounting for 5% of total circulation; Historically, anything larger than this scale has basically led to a major upheaval.
Because short-term chips are too concentrated, price sensitivity increases.
At the end of October 2022, just before the FTX collapse, there were 1 million BTC at $19,000 and 870,000 BTC at $18,000. The two locations together accounted for 9.7% of the total circulation.
What happened next is well known: an event acting as a lead, combined with the fragility of the chip structure, triggered large fluctuations.
Currently, the combined value of $62,000 and $63,000 has already reached 8%.......
(By the way, today the chip concentration has reached 13%, entering the restricted zone; Just one step away from 15%)
Come on, give me a quick one! 🤣🤣🤣Seeing OpenAI's new model Astra solve so many mathematical problems, to be honest, I was a bit shocked by the kinda. Especially the progress made in the field of post-quantum cryptography... Does NGL really have a profound impact on cryptocurrency security? After all, post-quantum encryption can effectively resist attacks from quantum computers and is key to the security of future digital currencies... Although I don't understand the specific mathematical details (but I do care about the UI/UX experience), I feel this is extremely important to the entire blockchain industry. When designing an interface, I honestly consider the security of the user experience, especially when it comes to fund transactions. Does Astra's progress mean that future cryptocurrencies may be safer and smoother to interact with? ... I hope to see more technical details shared so that designers can better understand and optimize related user interaction experiences... @OpenAI @BlockBeats #数学难题 #Astra模型$OFC Is Building Momentum After a Strong Breakout 🚀
OFC is trading around $0.01156 on the OKX 1H chart, gaining over 6.5% today after a powerful rally from the $0.0086 area. The breakout was supported by strong buying pressure, and the price is now holding near the recent high around $0.0118, showing that bulls remain in control.
If OFC stays above $0.0110, the current momentum could support another attempt to break the recent peak. However, after such a fast move, short-term pullbacks are normal as traders lock in profits.
The trend remains positive, but the next breakout will reveal whether this rally still has room to grow.
Do you think OFC will push above $0.0118 and continue higher, or is a healthy retracement more likely first?
#30YYieldAt19YHigh Low float, high FDV is the quiet trap eating retail right now.
VCs and teams sit on mountains of unlocked tokens. Retail just sees a "cheap" price and ignores the monthly supply avalanche hitting the market. 📉
When big unlocks land, spot buyers become exit liquidity. L2s and infra like $ARB, $OP, $STRK, $ZK, $BLAST, $MANTA, $ALT, $DYM, $TIA get crushed by it. Even hot L1s and oracles — $SUI, $APT, $SEI, $PYTH, $JUP, $W, $EIGEN, $REZ, $ETHFI — can’t escape the structural selling. 🔓
Money rotates to assets with clean supply and real revenue.
DeFi + RWA leaders prove it: $ONDO, $MKR, $AAVE, $UNI, $PENDLE, $ENA, $SNX, $CRV, $COMP, $LDO, $RPL. No surprise dumps, liquidity sticks.
Same story in AI + DePIN. $TAO, $FET, $NEAR, $RNDR, $AKT, $AIOZ, $GRT, $THETA, $FIL, $AR have demand backing them. Gaming tokens like $GALA, $BEAM, $IMX, $AXS, $SAND, $MANA, $PIXEL, $PORTAL, $PRIME, $ILV keep getting wrecked by ecosystem unlocks.
No wonder retail runs to memes: $PEPE, $WIF, $BONK, $FLOKI, $POPCAT, $BOME, $DOGE, $SHIB, $MOG, $BRETT. No VC cliff, no unlock calendar. Fairness becomes the narrative. 💡
Before you buy, read the tokenomics.
The market’s signal is clear: capital parks in proven value. $BTC for macro safety, $ETH for real settlement fees, $SOL for fast liquidity execution. 🛡️
#AMZNMissesButRallies
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
#MSFT450BInADay On the first day of August, we have to talk about Ethereum. In the just-passed July, Ethereum performed well, with monthly gains reaching 18.5%. Bitcoin next door only rose 7%, and once this gap appeared, market sentiment clearly changed. But here's the question: can prices continue to rise in August? I checked the historical data. Starting from 2016, Ethereum rose 4 times and fell 6 times in August—definitely more declines than gains. Interestingly, the average return rate was a positive 6.74%, which is contradictory. To put it bluntly, the price increases were too severe during those years. $ETH The most outrageous was in 2017, when the market surged 92.86% in a single month. That was the craziest time for ICOs, with funds rushing in with eyes closed. But the other side is also tragic: in August 2018, it crashed 34.79%, instantly draining liquidity in a bear market to the point where you doubt your life. If you exclude these two extreme market events, the median return is -1.74%, which might be closer to reality. August has never been a month for Ethereum to win easily. So now, everyone is watching August, essentially betting on one direction: can July's strong momentum continue? Institutions are indeed taking action, with some listed companies starting to treat ETH as a reserve asset, emulating MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy. But history also reminds us that August is often a turning point—either a fire is ignited or a bucket of cold water is poured over us. Don't just look at average returns; that stuff is easy to deceive. Keep an eye on volume and news; August is just beginning.Global storage sector pulled back from July highs: US storage ETFs fell over 30% month-on-month, with leading stocks like Micron and SanDisk falling 25%-50%; The A-share memory chip index has been relatively resilient but has intensified volatility, with a single-day correction of 3.68% on July 31.
1. Shift in expectations: The market is pricing in early for Q4 2026 memory contract prices to peak, with valuation logic shifting from AI growth premiums back to cyclical attributes, with funds cashing out at high levels and exiting.
2. Structural Differentiation: HBM and high-end DDR5 remain tight due to AI computing power demand; The price increase for consumer-grade storage has been transmitted to the end market, but weak downstream demand means insufficient support.
3. Liquidity Pressure: Rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields put pressure on global tech growth stocks, weakening the β sector. $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX In August, should you short on the high or buy on the dip? BTC/ETH tactical analysis
There is only one core contradiction in August: whether to raise interest rates in September. $BTC and $ETH do not generate cash flow; prices are entirely determined by liquidity expectations, which are controlled by the Federal Reserve. Therefore, this analysis does not discuss sentiment or narrative, focusing only on the Fed's data and price points.
1. Where is he currently standing?
On August 1, BTC was about $62,900, ETH about $1,865, down about 2.7% in 24 hours.
Looking at multiple timeframes, the position is clear: on the monthly chart, BTC closed lower for two consecutive quarters in the first half of the year—historically, only in 2014, 2019, and 2022 did this happen, with direction choices in every third quarter, and this time the choice was in the hands of the Fed. On the weekly chart, BTC fluctuated between $60,000 and $66,000 for eight weeks in June-July, with trading volume continuously shrinking (spot prices averaged only $2.2 billion per day in July, hitting a new low since November 2023). Funding rates are stuck on the floor—a typical structure suppressed by rate hike expectations. The market is not panicked but reluctant to increase positions. On the daily chart, the price is close to the 50-day moving average, with 66,000 above being a seven-week top that cannot be broken, and 60,000 below below being a seven-week bottom that cannot be broken.
There will be no FOMC in August, but four events will reprice the probability of a rate hike in September: the August 7 nonfarm payroll, August 12 CPI (most crucially, the last rate of inflation before the September FOMC), August 26 GDP+PCE, and the Jackson Hole annual meeting on August 27-29 (Wash's speech sets the tone for September). They are the only source of trends in August.
2. Macro environment
In July, the FOMC cast its largest opposition vote in a decade: 9:3 to keep rates unchanged, and three regional Fed chairs publicly advocated for a 25 basis point hike. The core logic is — inflation has stubbornly stayed above 3% for more than five years, and the risk of continuing to wait and see outweighs action. Kashkari even cited lessons from the 1970s: inflation caused by supply shocks and overlapping is not intervened in time, and it will solidify into permanently high inflation.
The backdrop is indeed not optimistic: core PCE has returned to 3.0%, the US-Iran conflict has pushed up oil prices, the 10-year US Treasury yield has broken through 4.7%, and the 30-year yield has reached its highest level since 2007. The probability of a rate hike in September fluctuates sharply between 50% and 80%.
But the market has another side: Wash's statement that "rising Treasury yields have partially completed the tightening effect" caused the dollar to plunge and temporarily cool interest rate hike expectations. Wall Street is guessing whether he's just an eagle in shell and a pigeon, or is he really waiting for the numbers. The answer was revealed by data from August 4. Data determines direction, and direction determines the location.
3. Tactics: Short on highs > Buy on dips
Layered conclusion: The main tone is that the rebound to the resistance zone is bearish—rising rate hike expectations are the most likely path, and each rally is more likely to be suppressed than a reversal. But never chase short positions—60,000 is a strong support repeatedly tested over seven weeks, ETF funds are bottoming out, and short selling below 60,000 yields very poor odds.
The core strategy can be summed up in one sentence: sell high and buy low within a range + reduce positions before events + follow the trend after events.
BTC (current price about 62,900)
Short on rallies (preferred): Enter on rebounds to 63,800-64,500, stop loss above 65,500, target 62,000, then look at 60,500. Trigger condition: Rebound does not exceed 66,000 and volume shrinks.
Buy on dips: test light positions at 60,000-61,500 on pullbacks, stop loss below 59,300, target 64,000-66,000. Trigger condition: Daily chart stabilizes without breaking 60,000.
Bullish (Confirmation of Reversal): Enter only when the daily closing price holds above 66,000, stop loss at 64,500, target 68,000, and final target at 71,200 (yearly high). The premise is that CPI falls back.
Short Chasing (Confirmed Breakout): On the daily chart, close below 60,000, follow the trend to short, stop loss at 61,500, target 58,800 (200-day moving average), then look at 55,000. The premise is that rate hike expectations are established.
ETH (current price about 1,865)
Short on rallies (preferred): Enter on rebounds to 1,900-1,940, stop loss at 1,970, target 1,846 (200-day EMA), then look at 1,800.
Buy on dips: rebound after a pullback at 1,800-1,830, stop loss below 1,770, target 1,900-1,940.
Chase long positions: Enter after holding above 2,000, stop loss at 1,940, target 2,100.
Short Chasing: If it falls below 1,800, go short, stop loss at 1,830, target 1,700.
4. Operational discipline
Before CPI (1-2 days before 8/12): Reduce leverage regardless of bullish or bearish conditions. The 90 minutes after the CPI release are one of the most intense swing windows of the year; don't bet on direction before the data.
After CPI: above 3%, → rate hike expectations heat up, short positions hold, aiming for a breakout of 60,000; If it falls below 3%, → logic reverses; immediately stop loss and reverse to go long for short positions, targeting 64,000-66,000.
During Jackson Hole (8/26-29): GDP + PCE + Walsh speech + option expirations overlapped, the most intensive 72 hours of the year. Recommend light positions or wait-and-see positions, as the direction may reverse within minutes.
Event interval: BTC is likely to move sideways between 62,000-64,000. Light positions, sell high, buy low, and avoid trend bets.
5. Risk Warning
The above is a probability analysis based on publicly available data and does not constitute investment advice. Leverage trading may result in a loss of all principal.
The biggest variable: oil prices. If the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and oil prices plunge, inflation expectations will quickly fall, and the "rate hike → short selling" logic will instantly collapse, forcing bears to cut losses unconditionally.
Liquidity is thin in August, and large orders may dominate prices. Technical levels may temporarily fail in extreme market conditions.
August does not determine direction, but August forces direction. The answer to whether there will be a rate hike in September is written in the nonfarm payrolls, CPI, PCE, and Jackson Hole. What you need to do is not guess the answer, but after each data verification, take the side with the higher probability.
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9%
#微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for the US stock market Below is the global key economic data and event calendar for August 2026 (key: 8/3–8/31), chronologically + by importance, covering the Fed, nonfarm, CPI/PCE, China data, central bank decisions, and Jackson Hole.
1. U.S. Core Macro (Fed Pricing Theme)
• August 7 (Friday) 20:30 US July Nonfarm Payroll Report ★★★★★
New jobs (expected 100,000–130,000), unemployment rate (4.2–4.3%), average hourly wage year-on-year (~3.5%). In June, it increased by only 57,000 and was revised down by 74,000 in the first two months. If it weakens again this time, → will strengthen rate cuts; wages are relatively hot, → rate cuts will be postponed.
• August 12 (Wednesday) 20:30 US July CPI ★★★★★
Overall CPI is expected to increase by 3.4–3.6% year-on-year, and core CPI by 2.5–2.7%. In June, overall CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month to 3.5% year-on-year, and the magnitude of this rebound determines the FOMC expectations for September.
• 8/13 (Thursday) 20:30 US July PPI ★★★ wholesale inflation, CPI leads the way.
• 8/14 (Friday) 20:30 US July retail sales ★★★ Consumer Resilience Verification.
• August 26 (Wednesday) 20:30 US July PCE Price Index ★★★★★
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has a greater impact on interest rate paths than CPI; On the same day, the second Q2 GDP estimate was released.
• 8/19 (Wednesday) 02:00 Fed FOMC meeting minutes (7/29 meeting) ★★★ Internal divisions (three votes against maintaining rates in July).
• High-frequency next week: 8/3 ISM Manufacturing, 8/5 ADP Private Employment + ISM Non-Manufacturing, 8/6 Initial Claims, all nonfarm/CPI outlooks.
The Fed's next FOMC decision is in September (not August), and August is all data games + Jackson Hole setting the tone.
2. Key China Data (Impact on A-shares/Exchange Rate)
• 8/3 (Monday) 09:45 Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July ★★★).
• 8/5 (Wednesday) 09:45 Caixin Services PMI (July ★★★).
• August 7 (Friday) 11:00 July import and export total ★★
• 8/9 (Sunday) 09:30 Check whether July CPI/PPI ★★★ prices have deviated from their lows
• August 17 (Monday) July National Economic Operation Conference (Industrial Added Value / Fixed Asset Investment / Social Retail Sales ★★★).
• August 21 (Thursday) August LPR Quotations ★★★ Against the backdrop of July PMI falling to 49.2, observation points for whether interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts will be made during the window
3. Global Central Bank Resolutions and Annual Meetings
• 8/11 (Tuesday): Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
• 8/13 (Thursday): Norges Bank rate decision
• 8/21 (Thursday): Swedish central bank interest rate decision + China's LPR
• August 27 (Thursday): Bank of Korea interest rate decision
• 8/27–29 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting ★★★★★ Fed Chair's speech sets the tone for September's path, marking the peak volatility in August historically
• European Central Bank: Decision will be made on 9/10, but in August, the Eurozone's July CPI was already 2.9% (energy-driven), and rising rate hike expectations are external constraints
4. Daily overview of this week (8/3–8/7).
Date: Beijing Time: Event Level
Monday, 8/3, 09:45 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI ★★★ 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI ★★★
8/5 Wednesday 09:45 China Caixin Services PMI ★★★ 20:15 US ADP EMPLOYMENT (July) ★★★ 22:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ★★★
Friday, 8/7 11:00 China July import and export ★★ 20:30 US July nonfarm + unemployment rate + hourly wage ★★★★★
5. Transaction-level reminders
• August macro chain: Nonfarm payrolls (8/7)→ CPI (8/12)→ PPI (8/13)→ Retail (8/14)→ Minutes (8/19)→ PCE (8/26)→ Jackson Hole (8/27)—each a tick in US Treasuries/USD/Gold/Bitcoin.
• Current base tone: The Federal Reserve maintained 3.50–3.75% on July 29 with three votes against rate hikes; U.S. Q2 GDP fell to 1.5%; domestic official July PMI fell to 49.2→ If the data confirm cooling employment + controllable inflation, risk assets (stocks/currencies) will be bullish; If wages or CPI rebound, the "higher for longer" repricing will trigger a simultaneous decline in gold, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies.
• No scheduled data for the weekend (8/1–8/2), but U.S.-Iran geopolitical relations + oil prices (Brent crude rebounded due to Middle East conflict) will be priced in early for Monday's opening.Recently, I came across some data about the U.S. midterm elections and found it quite interesting.
From 1962 to 2022, there have been a total of 16 U.S. midterm elections in history. Data shows that the S&P 500 rose in all 12 months following the midterm elections, with no exceptions, and the average gain was about 16.3%.
Why is that?
I believe the core reason isn't who wins, but that the market hates uncertainty the most.
Before the midterm elections, the market often needs to continuously digest various variables such as policy expectations, fiscal direction, and regulatory changes, so historically, performance around the election is usually average.
But after the election, regardless of the final outcome, policy direction becomes clearer, the market can re-price the future, uncertainty decreases, and risk appetite tends to gradually recover.
If we look at this pattern now, 2026 will also be the U.S. midterm election year, so many investors will use this history to predict the market in 2027.
If the market continues to adjust in the future due to sentiment, liquidity, or other factors, I don't think there is any need for excessive panic. At the very least, this history can be used as a reference rather than focusing only on short-term fluctuations.
Of course, what I want to emphasize more is that historical statistics can only provide probabilities, not answers. Historical trends never represent future trends, nor do they mean the market will necessarily repeat past scripts. What truly determines future market trends are still the economy, corporate earnings, liquidity, and policy environment. History is worth studying, but not superstition.
$QQQ $SPY On August 1, Bitcoin struggled above $63,000, with over 90,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours, totaling $362 million. This was not a simple technical correction, but a fierce clearing amid a macro cycle shift.
Peeling back the surface of the candlestick chart, the underlying logic behind this plunge is clear:
The first is the reversal of macro expectations. Bitcoin generates no cash flow, and its valuation relies entirely on liquidity expectations. With inflationary pressures returning, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September soared to 82%, and the rise in risk-free rates quickly pulled funds out of high-risk assets.
Next is the "foot vote" between institutions and mining companies. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for eight consecutive weeks, setting the largest single-quarter outflow; After the 2024 halving, some mining companies' production costs reached as high as $78,000, far exceeding spot prices. In Q1, over 32,000 coins were sold off, using the money from selling coins to pay electricity bills.
Finally, there is a chain of leveraged stomping. In a weak drop where buying pressure dries up, any disturbance triggers forced liquidation by the bulls, forming a death spiral of "decline - liquidation - further decline."
Bitcoin's halving is a microcosm of global liquidity tightening. Next, the September Fed policy meeting and the selling pace of mining companies will be key to determining the bottom. For ordinary people, recognizing the harvesting nature of high leverage and not blindly participating in games is the only rule to weather cycles $BTC The biggest recent market change isn't in stocks or the crypto market, but in US Treasuries. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note once surged to around 5.27%, the highest since 2007. Behind this figure lies the fact that global capital is reassessing the future interest rate environment. Several key points worth noting: 1. Why did long-term yields on US Treasuries suddenly rise? The core reason is still the market's repricing of the "duration of high interest rates." At the end of July, the Fed meeting continued to keep rates unchanged, but internal hawkish voices increased. Meanwhile, recent increases in oil prices have reignited concerns about inflationary pressures. Although PCE data has shown signs of cooling, it is still far from the Fed's 2% target, and the market has begun to lower expectations for rapid rate cuts. 2. Around 5.3% has become a new market focus In recent years, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has fluctuated within a certain range. This breakthrough above 5% means the market is pricing in long-term debt and inflation risks higher. If yields continue to rise, it may mean: a longer high interest rate environment; Rising corporate financing costs; Pressure on overvalued assets has further increased. However, if inflation continues to decline and oil prices fall, this rally may only be a temporary fluctuation. 3. What impact does rising US Treasury bonds have on BTC and risk assets? U.S. Treasury yields can be understood as the "risk-free rate" of global capital. The higher the yield, the more funds flow back into the bond market, reducing the attractiveness of risk assets. For technology"Can you buy SanDisk $SNDK now?"
Day after day, I closely monitor the Nasdaq, tracking overall fluctuations in the storage sector, and combining US Treasury yields, cloud vendor purchasing rhythms, and retail capital flows, I have a solid discussion about the pros and cons of bottom-fishing SanDisk now.
Currently, SanDisk's stock price is holding steady near $1,214, but in just over a month, it has fallen nearly 50% from its peak of $2,335, with single-day drops of 5% to 14%. The turnover rate has remained above 14% for a long time, making the tug-of-war between bulls and bears particularly fierce.
The company's fundamentals have always been strong, with early on, signing long-term flash memory supply contracts worth $42 billion with cloud giants like Microsoft and Amazon. Most of the revenue is locked in early, so even if spot flash memory prices loosen later, fixed orders can firmly secure basic profits. Specializing in AI server enterprise-grade SSD tracks perfectly hits the urgent cloud data storage demand.
But the current negative factors hindering the stock price rebound cannot be resolved in the short term.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield held steady at 5.27%, a nineteen-year high, and risk-free bonds are highly attractive. Funds continue to withdraw from U.S. growth tech stocks. Retail investors have net sold storage stocks for nine consecutive trading days, with over 80% of selling pressure flowing into stocks like Micron and SanDisk, which have surged at highs. Bottom-fishing and buying positions are becoming increasingly rare.
The previous AI bull market saw excessively high gains, with the year-to-date increase exceeding 800%. The market had already priced in all the positive factors for flash memory price increases and computing power expansion over the next two years, and now that these benefits are taking effect, a sell-off rally has emerged.
Samsung and SK Hynix are continuously expanding NAND flash capacity. Institutions predict that new supply will be concentrated in the market in the second half of 2027, shifting from tight supply to looseness. The upside of storage cycles is basically coming to an end, and funds are reluctant to continue high valuations. The current P/E ratio is still close to 41 times, and the bubble has not been fully digested.
Many investment banks remain optimistic about the long-term trend, with the average target price set at $1811, suggesting there is still 20% upside, but the risk of a short-term pullback far outweighs the upside opportunities.
Compared to Micron, SanDisk's stock price has doubled in volatility, has a lower margin for error, and heavy bottom-fishing can easily erode profits from sustained volatility.
Based on my trading experience recently, this is definitely not the time to go all-in and buy the dip. At best, you can take out small positions and buy on dips in batches. After the Fed signals a rate cut and the August earnings fully deliver, increasing your position will be much safer. Rushing to buy the bottom will only trap you in a fluctuating range.