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BTC plunged from above 65,000 to 64,277, and ETH fell from 1,920 to 1,876, a decline of nearly 1.73%. Many people panic when they see this market, thinking "the rebound is over" or "it's going back to 60,000." But let me tell you, the reasons for this drop are very clear, and they're all driven by short-term events, not trend reversals. 📊 Three reasons directly broke through 65,000 1️⃣ The BIP-110 soft fork caused a chain split in the Bitcoin network. This is the core technical bearish. BIP-110 has only 2.6% support, with miner signals overwhelmingly opposed. Nodes supporting forks began rejecting non-signal blocks at block height 961,632, and within hours of launch, only two blocks were generated, essentially becoming a "one-time chain." Although the main chain remains unaffected, the term "chain split" alone is enough to cause market panic. Faced with this technical uncertainty, major players and institutions always respond first by reducing positions and waiting to see what happens. 2️⃣ Nonfarm payroll positive data only rose for 5 minutes. Last Friday's nonfarm payroll data "backfired," with an expected increase of 80,000 but an actual decrease of 23,000. The combined May and June figures were revised downward by 103,000. According to classic logic, the job market collapse→ rising expectations of rate cuts→ weaker dollar, → risk assets surging. But BTC only surged from 64,000 to 65,300, and then there was nothing more. After 5 minutes, the rest was all pullback. Why? Because the 65,000-65,600 range is a strong resistance zone,Breaking news! 🇺🇸 Grayscale has withdrawn its proposed Cardano, Polkadot, and Hedera ETF registration applications, no longer under review by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Within just a few minutes, three revocation documents were submitted simultaneously, signaling a full signal.
The core impact can be broken down in one sentence
1. Regulatory expectations have cooled directly
Beyond BTC and ETH, the SEC has extremely strict approval thresholds for second-tier public chain spot ETFs. Grayscale's proactive withdrawal shows no short-term hope of approval, directly extinguishing the hope that second-tier mainstream coins will attract institutional incremental funds through ETFs. The extension of the CLARITY bill vote has further increased policy uncertainty, forcing the long-term institutional entry window for small and mid-cap coins to be extended.
2. Short-term negative factors on the market will not trigger a sharp drop
ADA, DOT, and HBAR only plunged slightly by about 2% intraday, as the market had long anticipated a stampede crash as a boot had landed; However, these three coins will no longer be able to use ETFs as a catalyst for speculation and will likely enter a long-term consolidation bottoming phase. #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? $BTC $ETH
3. The capital sector is becoming more differentiated, with the strong getting stronger
Grayscale is still holding firm to the two major spot ETF battlegrounds, BTC and ETH. Funds will further concentrate on Bitcoin and Ethereum, while the valuation logic of second-tier public chains and niche counterfeit chains will be weakened. The altcoin market will only become more competitive. Without hard narratives + institutional expectations, avoid heavy positions and gambling.
4. This is a strategic contraction, not a permanent abandonment. With regulatory easing in the future, Grayscale can reapply at any time, but for at least the next 3-6 months, you don't need to rely on ETF positive news for these three coins to boost the market.$ETH Has been doing its thing and holding on to this current price range.
But the level to break and hold is $1950. That would open the door to a move above $2.1K+
Especially seeing how compressed price has been here, a breakout (to either side) should come with a decent squeeze of positions that are caught offside.
$1850 is the invalidation below for the bulls.🏦 THE CRYPTO MARKET IS QUIETLY CHANGING HANDS
For years, crypto was dominated by retail traders chasing narratives, momentum and the next breakout.
That structure is evolving.
The latest numbers suggest institutional capital is becoming a much larger force behind market activity.
Wintermute reported that institutions now account for roughly 72% of its spot OTC trading volume, compared with 59% a year earlier.
That's not a minor shift.
It points to deeper institutional participation in the market's largest trades.
And another development this week makes the trend even more interesting.
MARA committed 18,750 $BTC — roughly $1.2B — as collateral for $600M in financing rather than selling the Bitcoin.
That's a very different approach to managing a crypto treasury.
Instead of converting $BTC into cash, the company is effectively using its Bitcoin holdings as a financial asset while maintaining exposure to the underlying position.
Then there's the ETF picture. 👀
💰 $BTC ETFs: +$844M
💰 $ETH ETFs: +$244M
Ethereum's weekly inflows also reached their strongest level since April.
Put those pieces together and a broader trend starts to emerge:
🏦 More institutional trading
₿ Large Bitcoin holdings being retained
📈 Stronger ETF participation
💧 Greater access to traditional capital
This doesn't mean retail is disappearing.
It means the market is becoming more institutionally connected.
And that could fundamentally change how crypto cycles behave.
Large capital tends to think in quarters and years, not minutes.
That could mean deeper liquidity, different volatility patterns and increasingly important reactions to macroeconomic data.
The next crypto cycle may therefore be less about:
“What is retail buying today?”
…and increasingly about:
“Where is institutional capital positioning next?”
👀 The shift may already be underway.
#Bitcoin $BTC #Ethereum $ETH #Crypto #ETF #InstitutionalInvestors
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases Summary:
Continuing from the previous text, the previous rise ended and turned into a decline.
Subsequent Price Prediction:
The trend is downward, with the index likely to fall to near the 64,300 average price, where it will fluctuate up and down to seek direction.
Because in the medium term, accumulation is about to begin. Note that a break below 64,300 will not allow a quick pullback, with a bearish move toward 64,000-63,700.
Previous deduction:
Due to the attraction of distribution order blocks, the price may fluctuate between 65,640 and 64,979, with the highest possible breakthrough of 65,640.
After breaking through, due to significant selling pressure, the price may fall below 64,979, with the deepest pullback temporarily near 64,752.
Actual Price Trends:
After reaching a high of 65,540, it is now fluctuating near 64,700.
Future Trends:
Chip vacuum
Short-term bearish offense: starting from 65133, the bears continue to attack. Although the 65133 bearish offensive was filled, the lower levels near 64940-65013 and 64800 are all bearish offensives. Currently, the short-term trend of continued bearish attacks is downward, with the highest point possibly reaching around 65000.
In the medium term, as mentioned earlier, it will fluctuate. In the long term, the previously mentioned bullish offensive at 64,752-64,437 will soon be filled, with a decline below 64,437.
From this indicator, the current bearish offensive targets the long-term bullish defense line lower boundary at 64437.
Price channels
The short-term average price for equal volume is 63,750, with an upper limit of 70,090 and a lower limit of 58,260.
The medium-term average price for equal volume is 63,830, with an upper limit of 67,260 and a lower limit of 59,360.
The long-term average price for equal supply is 69,800, with a lower limit of 59,160.
From this indicator, the price is currently above the average but has started to pull back compared to the previous one, with recent support at 63,830. The upward trend has not yet been broken; the lowest is expected to fluctuate at 63,830.
The short-term average price for the same grade is 64,430, with an upper limit of 66,810 and a lower limit of 62,310.
The mid-term average price for this capital is 63,750, with an upper limit of 66,810 and a lower limit of 58,360.
The long-term average price for the mature grade is 64,010, with an upper limit of 65,200 and a lower limit of 62,500.
From this indicator, the price is currently above the moving average but is approaching the short-term average, having already touched the long-term upper limit. Looking downward, the short-term average price is 64,430 for support, with the second support at 64,010.
Looking at both indicators together, the long-term upper limit of 65,200 is suppressing, causing the price to pull back to the first support level at 64,430 and try to find support.
There are three support levels: 64430, 64000, and 63800, all close to each other. Let's first look at the 64430 range.
Volume and price order blocks
The latest short-term accumulation order is near 64,300. Medium- to long-term accumulation has not yet started, but the historical distribution orders above have been completely penetrated, which matches what we mentioned earlier: after inserting a pin distribution order, the price pulls back due to selling pressure.
This indicator currently shows a downward trend, adjusting to around 64,300.
Price-capped consumption
In the short term, historical bulls are attacking 64,500-64,000 and 64,340-63,950. Currently, this indicator also overlaps with bullish support near 64,340. For now, the pullback is at this point; if it breaks below and cannot recover, it could fall to 63,950.
Comprehensive analysis:
Looking at the chip vacuum, the current bearish attack targets the long-term bullish defense line lower boundary at 64437.
Looking at price channel indicators, look for support at the first defensive line at 64,430.
Looking at volume and price orders, the trend is downward, with a temporary breakout above 64,300.
Limit price engulfing is the first bullish support near 64,340.The expansion blueprint at the Texas base intertwined with a nearly 10% post-hours increase, and after the Q2 report exceeded expectations, $AAOI dragged the battle over 800G and 1.6T optical modules into a capacity tug-of-war.
From 100,000 units per month at the end of the first quarter to nearly 200,000 units, and then to sprint toward the target of 930,000 units by the end of 2027, the pace of high-density capacity expansion is being rapidly priced in in the market.
Previous downward revisions to nonfarm payroll data eased inflationary pressure, and cooling rate hike expectations boosted market risk appetite, driving capital to flow back into high-growth hardware sectors.
The recovery of macroeconomic sentiment and aggressive capacity expansion targets have formed a short-term resonance, but whether the multi-year factory construction and equipment commissioning can be delivered on time remains to be seen.
If the upcoming CPI data confirms easing inflationary pressures and subsequent factory construction and yield improvements meet expectations, the market's certainty premium on hardware demand will continue to consolidate; If high capital expenditures consume liquidity too quickly, the pace of bullish advancement will be interrupted.
When equipment deliveries are delayed or expansion costs exceed budgets, concentrated cash-out of high-end profit-taking orders quickly suppresses valuations; If inflation data unexpectedly rebounds sparks interest rate hike concerns again, contraction in risk appetite will accelerate the pullback of stock prices.
Current funding pricing logic relies on the dual assumption of computing power demand and localization implementation. If actual capacity construction deviates from the set timeline, the tight position structure will face sharp adjustments.
The most noteworthy variable to watch over the next seven days is the transmission of interest rate expectations and inflation paths to asset prices following Wednesday's CPI release.
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎 Cook: #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?8.10 BTC still can't be bottom-fished; on the left side, wait for 57,000 / 54,000 | long gold three-position at 4,324 / 4,267 / 4,200
This issue looks at BTC within a broader cycle.
Conclusion First: this is undoubtedly the mid-to-late stage of the bear market; But this is not the place to go all-in.
If you go all in now, you're just standing on the far left.
Where is the real left position:
· 57,000 The trendline formed by two lows is a limit
· 54,000 is the ultimate VWAP that came at the end of 2022
· Moreover, just being in place isn't enough; you also need to spot signs like bullish divergence to slow down, so you can have good prices and good odds
What conditions on the right side are needed for the bottom to hold: a volume breakout above 65,000, a pullback hold, then look at 67,000 (previous high). Between 65,000 and 67,000, there must be a decent volume breakout + pullback and further up.
This is Bayesian approach: let's make a hypothetical scenario and follow whichever market moves. Currently, I hold a short position, with costs pushed to over 64,000.
Then I did something I don't usually like: carving a boat.
This period now is very similar to June 2022: drops, slowed rebounds, and then fell again and again. That time, it dropped 22% in the last week, reaching the historical low. So I reviewed that bottom in full. The focus wasn't on price, but on timing:
· It took another four months after June to reach the historic low
· I bought a position in November and December 2022, but it wasn't until March of the following year that there was a second pullback
· After that, three months, three months
· Going through batches, the cost can reach 25,000; even if you calculate from the highest point, buying 30,000 yuan to get spot stock is still very enjoyable
This is what the bottom of a bear market looks like: long and brutal. So don't rush to buy the dip. You don't have to go short, but going long at this level is just average cost-effectiveness—it's more like a downward relay.
Gold, on the other hand, has been strong:
· The rebound momentum is strong, basically not falling below the rising VWAP, and liquidity is much better than BTC
· Last time, I didn't add heavy positions at the 4150 breakout; I had already taken all TP between 4170–4200
· Today, the VWAP entered the first position at 4324, TP was stuck at 4454 (which is a key VWAP, the support-resistance swap point).
· Divided into three warehouses: 4324 / 4267 / 4200; four warehouses around 4154 but not traded lightly
· When the three positions are full, just wait for a volume increase signal; if it holds, consider adding on the right#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
US July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, while market estimates increased by 80,000. Meanwhile, new nonfarm payrolls for May and June were revised down by 103,000.
U.S. employment data is becoming increasingly surreal. This is related to how U.S. employment data is compiled; let's set that aside for now, but in short, expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes have been greatly reduced
As I mentioned in a previous article, the Fed will not (or dare not) raise rates easily. Some even believe that Washe is a dove disguised as a hawk, unwilling to allow a hard economic landing and is more likely to use rate hike expectations to suppress data
The US CPI (Consumer Purchasing Index) data for August 12 will be released—see if it also falls short of expectations.
Lowering rate hike expectations is positive for gold and other precious metals, as well as for tech growth stocks.
$AAOI AA delivered a stellar second-quarter report on Friday, including the U.S. optical module company Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), which not only showed significant improvement in performance and surpassed expectations, but also boldly declared that by the end of 2027, optical module capacity would expand nearly tenfold, mostly to be borne by its local Texas base
This news, combined with previous reports that the U.S. plans to ban Chinese optical modules, has once again sparked market concern, causing the leading A-share optical module sector to plunge sharply in the afternoon.
Personally, I don't think there's any need to panic. Capacity expansion—from factory construction, equipment purchase and commissioning, yield ramp-up, to cost control—takes time. Plus, Chinese optical modules hold 70% of the market share—it's not something that can be replaced by just a simple replacement
This incident reflects a reality: the great power rivalry between China and the U.S. is unwilling to be choked by the other, and both are pursuing "domestic substitution and independent control." The future will be just as Foxconn's Terry Gou said, "One world, two systems."
This incident also confirms the certainty of explosive demand for mid-to-high-end 800G/1.6T optical modules. The supply shortage in the upstream Inp (Indium Phosphide) industry chain cannot be alleviated in the short term, so the corresponding stocks deserve medium- to long-term attention
American optical module company Applied Optoelectronics AAOI. In a conference call, management stopped boasting about current performance but announced an unprecedented capacity expansion, directly driving the stock price up nearly 10%. Management provided a timeline: by the end of Q1 this year, 800G and 1.6T capacity will be about 100,000 units per month, and currently, total capacity is close to 200,000 units per month. By the end of 2026, the target monthly capacity will exceed 650,000 units, and by the end of 2027, the target monthly capacity will exceed 930,000 units. Using the 100,000 units at the end of Q1 as the base, capacity will increase nearly tenfold by the end of 2027
No investment advice; profits and losses are borne by yourselfEveryone, I've watched this reflection on the knockoff season several times, and the direction is spot on. Mi Ge will highlight a few key points for you and add some of my own observations. First, the core judgment: this knockoff season is a completely different matter from the previous one. You might think the altcoin season is all coins rising together, with new and old coins sharing the same benefits, and the gains should be as strong as in 2021. But in reality, many knockoff sectors have already seen significant gains this time. If you don't make money, it's not because there's no market trend, but because the timing isn't right and the costs are too high. 9U WLD and 70U ORDI—you might think they're trash, but if you count how many times they've risen from the bottom, you'll know for yourself. Brother Mi added a key perspective: the big top of the old coin is basically over. Brothers of old coins, don't fantasize that every coin can break previous highs; not every project is INJ. Most old coins have already exited the stage of history. In the final stage of the bull market, they might "shoot a little" to show respect for the bull market, but don't expect to return to the peak. The knockoffs that completed the bull market cycle this round have four characteristics: concentrated chips, teams still working, able to follow hot topics, and skilled marketing. New coin chips are concentrated, no stranded positions, and have undergone sufficient shakeout. You must go to a major firm—this is the prerequisite for sustained market performance. Strategically, double your costs—don't be greedy. Where is the core conflict? The number of knockoffs has increased by several orders of magnitude compared to 2021, and their market value has also expanded. The overall gains in each bull market have been declining. Even with rate cuts, the scale of liquidity injections is likely to be lower than in 2020. The water for rate cuts will not flow evenly into every coin; it will only flow into the marketThe trending list first gives the total amount, but I usually look at the source because it better illustrates how the hype spread. In the one-hour snapshot updated by OKX Onchain OS at 20:00 on August 10, BTC was mentioned 43 times, X accounted for 38 times, and news 5 times; ETH was used 21 times, X 18 times, and 3 news events; There were 10 instances of SOL, 10 times of X, and 0 times of news. After conversion, X accounts for about 88% of BTC mentions in one hour, 86% of ETH, and 100% of SOL. These ratios are not good or bad scores, but rather indicate where the message is mainly spreading. X usually reacts faster and can capture immediate attention; News sources update more slowly but are easier to return to specific events. When sources are highly concentrated on X, the reasonable approach is to increase timeliness sensitivity rather than lower the verification standard. Concentration of sources also affects emotional proportions. BTC is currently bullish by 30% and bearish by 21%; ETH is 29% bullish, 14% bearish; SOL is 60% bullish, bearish 0%. If a large amount of text originates from reposting the same narrative, the classification ratio may be neat, but the amount of independent information may not be equally high, so the unified tone cannot be directly taken as broad consensus. News mentions that are not natural nor reliable either. The aggregate ranking only shows the source category and quantity, and does not mean that every news article has been confirmed by the project team or regulatory authorities. To make it factual, we should further open the agreement announcement and the foundationOn OKX, ETH quietly climbed to the top spot on the losing list tonight (-2.53%), and Bitcoin also saw increased volume and dropped down.
US stocks are also unstoppable—3X is going long, XSOXL down 4.95% in one day, PC industry down 2.71%, and risk assets are collectively withdrawing.
The volume of the large pie dropped from -64% stagnant in the previous hour to a +99% increase in volume, but the price didn't rise but fell, dropping to -1.378% in 24 hours.
OI only slightly dropped from 106,000 to 105,800—most of the sell-offs were spot or low-leveraged, not chain liquidations.
This combination of "volume increase + decline + no increase in open interest" usually involves some people actively reducing positions before CPI, not a bull market being wiped out.
Here's a trick to identify real and fake distributions: Ask yourself three questions during a drop in volume.
(1) Can the volume last (single large volume followed by retraction = high probability of fake fall);
(2) Price has broken below previous lows (below 64,000 = structural failure);
(3) Whether OI falls in sync (OI not moving = spot price crash, OI falling = leverage collapse). Holding two bars is what really means weakness.
Tonight, volume is gained, prices fall, and OI doesn't follow. It's more like a pre-CPI rush to reduce positions, not the start of a crash.
With this volume drop, do you dare to take the knife? If you dare, share your reasons in the comments; if not, let's talk about what you're afraid of.
#OKX星球 $BTC $ETH #放量下跌 #CPI前夜Short-seller battle intensifies! Multiple rounds of SPCX unlocking waves are coming, the real test of the market is just beginning🔥
Many mistakenly believe that the first round of SPCX unlocking is the worst bad news, but they completely misread the rhythm! The large unlocking of 911.5 million shares on August 6 was just an appetizer; the nine-stage unlocking wave lasting more than a year has only just started. Coupled with a massive short position yet to be cleared, the subsequent long-short struggle will only become more intense. Although the current market seems resistant to decline, it actually hides the risk of continuous selling pressure.
1. Heavy unlocking schedule revealed, subsequent selling pressure far exceeds the first round
This round of SPCX unlocking adopts a phased unlocking mechanism, with pressure gradually increasing and continuously crushing the market:
On August 20, 319 million shares will be unlocked; in September and October, about 700 million shares will be released respectively. Compared to the first round of 911.5 million shares, the combined unlocking volume of 1.4 billion shares over two consecutive months doubles the pressure.
Most importantly, the overall unlocking cycle will continue until 2027, and Elon Musk and core shareholders’ lock-up period will not end until June next year. This means the long-term oversupply of shares cannot be reversed in the short term, and each unlocking window thereafter will become a potential trigger for stock price pullbacks.
2. Short positions have not exited, the long-short battle is stuck in a tug-of-war
There is a common misconception in the market: the stock price did not collapse after the first unlocking, so the bulls have stabilized. The real market data is the opposite; currently, over 250 million shares of SPCX are still in short positions, and the main short sellers have not retreated.
The current battle logic is extremely subtle: if subsequent unlocking occurs and internal shareholders concentrate on selling, it will provide ample ammunition for short sellers to hammer the price, likely causing the stock price to weaken under pressure; if the selling intensity is less than market expectations, short sellers trapped at high prices will be forced to cover, triggering a temporary rebound. The long-short battle is deadlocked, making it difficult for the market to form a one-sided trend.
3. Core market logic and practical judgment
The market’s smooth acceptance of the first unlocking was more due to short-term emotional support rather than substantial capital strength. Early employees and institutions have very low holding costs, and each unlocking round carries a strong willingness to cash out, with a continuous influx of new circulating shares diluting buying power.
Currently, SPCX’s valuation is in a very awkward position, with polarized battle space: long-term, the growth potential of the sector is sufficient, but short-term unlocking selling pressure and short-seller suppression combine as two major negatives, making it not cost-effective to hold heavy positions.
Practical strategy
The optimal current strategy: avoid heavy positions, avoid missing out, and avoid blind bottom-fishing.
No need to panic sell, nor rush to enter for a rebound play; patiently wait for multiple unlocking rounds to complete, short positions to clear, and share structure to stabilize before choosing an entry point. All current price increases are just volatile recoveries, not trend reversals.
⚠️This article is only a market review analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. The unlocking cycle of US stocks is long and volatility risk is very high; please manage positions rationally.$SPCX This series about the release of locked positions has just finished its prologue, and there are still plenty of queues waiting for the future. The selling is relentless, wave after wave, giving the market no chance to catch its breath.
Let's take a look at the upcoming timeline:
The wave of over 900 million shares on August 6 was just an "appetizer," catching it safely without incident? Don't be too quick to relax—on August 20, the stock jumped to about 300 million shares, and that's not all; in September and October, nearly 700 million shares will each flow out each month! The total volume is much higher than the first batch. What's even more exciting is that the unlocking is divided into nine stages, all the way to 2027; Elon Musk and some core big players have their chips stuck until June next year. Just ask, when will this supply flood end?
Looking at the short sellers, over 250 million shares are still lying in the short pool. These people haven't completely exited. If insiders really start dumping in bulk after the lock-up, the bears would have an allied helper out of thin air, making the sell-off smoother; But if the actual selling pressure falls short of expectations, the bears will be squeezed out of the crowd to fill the gap—with bulls and bears so torn apart, it's hard to say who wins or loses.
To be honest: the first round didn't crash but actually rose, which is impressive, but don't treat that as a get-out-of-jail-free ticket. The next two months, a total of 1.4 billion new shares will be the real battle. At this price, you might say it's low, but in the long run, there might be some gain; But saying the risk is high is entirely true, since the chip tsunami is far from over. Anyway, I'm not going to rush in to gamble right now; I'd rather grab a small stool and watch the show, wait until the chips settle before making a move. Chase in now? No need. Cut losses and run? It's not worth it. Stay calm; surviving long in these storms is better than anything else.
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? Grayscale withdraws three altcoin ETF applications: Has the altcoin ETF boom ended?
Recently, the market has noticed that Grayscale has withdrawn some altcoin ETF-related applications.
Many people's first reaction was: "Are institutions losing confidence in altcoins?" ”
But things are not that simple. Because ETFs truly represent more than just a trading product.
It represents whether traditional capital is willing to formally recognize the asset.
Past Market Expectations:
BTC ETFs open the door,
ETH ETF follows up,
Then more altcoins entered the ETF era.
But now, it seems institutions' attitudes may be changing:
Not all altcoins automatically receive ETF treatment.
Why? Because behind ETFs, considerations must be: liquidity. Market size. Regulatory certainty.
Whether the asset has a long-term investment logic.
In short:
Previously, the market speculated: "Who will be the next ETF?" ”
Now institutions are starting to consider: "Who is truly worth entering ETFs?" ”
This is actually a screening process.
For some small-cap, high-volatility, and short-term projects,
ETFs may not be good news.
Because institutions need to:
Assets that can still exist years from now.
Not short-term hotspots.
Therefore, Grayscale's withdrawal of its application does not necessarily mean the altcoin is over.
More likely to indicate that the crypto market is moving from a "full expansion phase" into an "asset screening phase."
Possible future developments:
BTC: The Digital Gold Narrative.
ETH: The Infrastructure Narrative.
Some knockoffs: Real application directions such as RWA, AI, DeFi, etc.
while a large number of projects without sustained demand
It may become increasingly difficult to gain institutional funding recognition.
In the short term, Grayscale's withdrawal of its ETF application may put emotional pressure on some related tokens.
But in the long run, ETFs will not cause all coins to rise.
It only helps market screening:
Which assets can enter the traditional financial system?
The real question isn't "whether there is an ETF." ”
Instead: "Does this asset qualify for institutions to hold long-term?" $BTC $ETH #现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? Storage sector short-term script
The storage sector has seen many negative factors recently, including the convergence of storage contract price increases, expectations of capacity expansion, and Nvidia's Rubin Ultra lowering HBM configurations.
Therefore, the storage sector performed weakly on the market, with a brief rebound followed by short-term supply resistance and pullback, followed by continuous declines over the past few trading days. SK Hynix, on the other hand, was the weakest performer in the storage sector, dragging down the overall sector.
However, SK Hynix's recent decline volume has been noticeably smaller, indicating a significant reduction in selling pressure. Therefore, the second test is unlikely to break below the previous low. After the second test is completed, it is expected to break through the short-term supply line and rebound resistance zone 1 (1.68 million to 2 million KRW).
Given the heavy trapped positions within Block Zone 1, it is difficult to break through Resistance Area 1 (1.68 million - 2 million KRW) in the short term (Q3).
Similar to SK Hynix's trend, Micron ($MU) and SanDisk ($SNDK are also expected to break through the short-term supply line and rebound upward to test the resistance zone.
Since Micron's performance is stronger than SK Hynix and SanDisk, Micron may break through the 890-1010 resistance zone in Q3, but it will be difficult to break through previous highs.
SanDisk's chances of breaking through the blocking zone (1325-1696) in Q3 are low.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice!$BICO Plummeting from 0.09 back to 0.04—is the harvest begining?
The recent trend can no longer be viewed as normal.
At the beginning of August, it was near $0.012, reaching a high of 0.09 on August 9, a sevenfold increase in just a few days; then it hit a low of 0.03734, a retracement of over 58% from its peak. Now at $0.04269, with a 24-hour trading volume of 321 million coins, compared to just a few million coins per day before the surge.
Such a large turnover indicates that early chips are being cashed out frantically, with new entrants fighting hard again around 0.04.
The news side was actually less lively than the price itself. Biconomy has indeed been advancing ERC-8211 and the Smart Batching SDK recently, but there has been no new announcement strong enough to explain a sevenfold increase. My understanding is straightforward: project progress is just the foundation; this time, what really ignites is liquidity, contract funds, and short squeezes.
Currently, OKX's perpetual funding rate is about -0.056%, with the previous period even reaching -0.111%. Bears are already quite crowded, and continuing to chase short sellers can easily lead to a sudden pull; Negative rates also indicate that the market is not optimistic about the future trend.
In the short term, first watch 0.040–0.0373 USD; if you can't hold here, the next level of support may be at 0.0326. Above above, first break through 0.0442, then watch 0.0483–0.0507. Only if volume increases and it holds above 0.0507 can we talk about a second upward phase.A U.S. Senate bill needed 60 votes to pass. It got 51, and now the entire regulatory timeline for crypto market structure just slipped by at least a month.
The Crypto Clarity Act failed to clear the Senate before summer recess, pushing debate to September 14. This isn't a minor procedural delay. The bill was meant to define how tokens are classified and regulated, and its absence keeps exchanges, custodians, and institutional allocators operating without clear rules on what counts as a security versus a commodity.
The impact is uneven. $XRP, still fighting to hold $1, remains the most exposed, since its long-running legal history makes it a bellwether for classification clarity. Tokenization plays like $ONDO and infrastructure tokens such as $LINK share that sensitivity. Meanwhile $BTC and $ETH keep absorbing steady ETF inflows regardless of the delay, and $SOL, $HYPE, $AVAX, $SUI, and $TAO continue trading on usage and derivatives activity rather than pending legislation. $DOGE and $BNB remain largely indifferent to this specific catalyst.
The risk: another delay in September extends uncertainty into Q4. The opportunity: clarity, whenever it arrives, could unlock institutional capital currently sitting on the sidelines.
Is the market pricing in a September pass, or ignoring the risk of another delay entirely?📊 $BTC $ETH latest BTC ETH data in the early morning
$BTC Current price is 64,405
The daily chart remains range-bound, with MACD red bars continuously shrinking, and upward momentum weakens.
Short-term support is at 63,200-63,300, resistance at 65,500-66,000.
It has not yet broken out of an independent rally, with a strong tie to the Nasdaq, and is expected to remain consolidated before Wednesday's CPI release.
$ETH Current price is 1877
The trend is clearly weaker than BTC, having already fallen below the 5/10/20-day moving averages, with the MACD turning negative and indicating short-term weakness.
Key support is at 1840-1850, resistance is at 1910-1930.
ETH is more resilient; once risk appetite declines, the drawdown is greater than Bitcoin's.
(Personal opinion analysis, no investment advice)
Everyone moves forward steadily. Wishing you great wealth and better and better timesIn-depth analysis of the new 23-hour trading rules for US stocks, thoroughly reshaping 🔥 the crypto and storage sectors
Nasdaq is about to implement 23-hour trading daily, with only one hour of liquidation and market closure. Its core purpose is to hedge the advantages of crypto trading 24×7 hours, directly changing the operating logic of the three major assets: $BTC, $ETH, and $SNDK.
1. Regarding crypto assets $BTC/$ETH: short-term diverting, medium- to long-term benefits compliant targets
After the U.S. stock market closed, a large amount of capital poured into the crypto world for speculation. The new regulations covered Asia-Pacific and Europe throughout the day, with large amounts of cross-border funds flowing back into crypto US stocks like COIN and MSTR, diverting short-term speculative funds to spot crypto and suppressing the rebound momentum of BTC and ETH in the short term.
However, a long-term positive linkage will form: Asia-Pacific funds can trade crypto concept stocks during the day, institutions are increasing willingness to allocate BTC spot ETFs, and bottom buying at 64,000 and 1,870 will continue to strengthen. At the same time, there will be no overnight pricing vacuum; CPI and Fed news will be absorbed instantly, greatly reducing extreme gaps the next day, and bullish and bearish oscillations will become normalized.
2. Storage Target $SNDK Continues to Benefit from Positive Developments
Most storage companies are in the Asia-Pacific supply chain, and the new regulations perfectly match the trading hours of Asian investors. Asia-Pacific funds can be directly allocated within the day to the AI storage cycle logic, with incremental capital continuing to flow in.
In the past, Asian funds could only wait for US stocks to open, with weak liquidity at night. 23-hour trading bridged the price difference barrier, $SNDK these sectors would continue to receive cross-time zone capital support, further strengthening their resilience and serving as the underlying catalyst for the recent broad market decline and its counter-trend strength.
3. Market-wide hidden risks and practical reminders
1. Liquidity is thin during late-night trading, large orders easily trigger rapid price swings, volatility in crypto and tech stocks has increased significantly, and the risk of liquidation in both contracts has intensified;
2. Global news has no buffer digestion; geopolitical and inflation data impact the market in real time, with no overnight risk avoidance window;
3. In the short term, avoid chasing pulse markets; rely on key support for light positions in BTC and ETH, prioritizing allocation to physical sectors like $SNDK that favor cross-time zone funds, and avoid off-market coins without fundamentals.
⚠️ This is merely a policy review and does not constitute investment advice; crypto derivatives carry extremely high volatility risk.The BIP-110 fork stalled eight hours after launch due to insufficient hash rate support, exposing the core conflict between Bitcoin's underlying governance game and transaction fee preferences.
The fork chain stalled after only 2 blocks, and mainnet hash power did not undergo substantial transfer, indicating that the core holdings concentrated in the hands of large holders and mainnet miners were not eroded. The impact of the event on $BTC's risk appetite is mainly reflected in the stabilization of trading fee expectations and the pullback of safe-haven leveraged positions.
The core factors driving current token changes are mainnet hash rate stability, block space fee fluctuations, and the repricing of derivatives leveraged positions. Due to the lack of sufficient hash power backing for forked chains, the safe-haven premium in the spot and derivatives markets has rapidly fallen, and short-term funds have re-concentrated in mainnet spot.
The trigger conditions for the upside scenario are that mainnet hash rate remains high and transaction fees remain stable. The market interprets this shutdown as a validation of the underlying protocol's defensive capabilities. In this scenario, it is necessary to observe changes in large addresses' holdings. If there is no large-scale on-chain sell-off, a rebound in risk appetite will support continued accumulation of spot positions.
The failure signal for this upward scenario is an abnormal surge in unconfirmed mainnet transactions, pushing up fees and squeezing liquidity.
The trigger for a downward scenario is that ecosystem divisions cause further differentiation among miners, and rising on-chain friction costs suppress new capital inflows. If derivatives open interest rapidly falls from high levels and is followed by liquidation, the market will shift to an emotional oscillating correction.
A sign of failure is a clear and unannounced loss of mainnet hash power, or a sudden consensus on highly controversial rule adjustments in the community, prompting safe-haven funds to move from spot to derivatives for hedging.
The most important variables to watch over the next seven days are the direction of mainnet hashrate adjustments, changes in average on-chain transaction fees, and the convergence of derivatives funding rates.
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎 Cook: #Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大 #伯克希尔结束净卖出, restarting large-scale allocationsBack in 2013, the only ones still breathing now are $DOGE and $LTC. More than a decade has passed, and you might never have heard the names from that era—Namecoin, Peercoin, Feathercoin, whose graves are already three meters tall. These two have survived not because of their technology, but because of their hard luck.
Let's start with LTC. Back then, its positioning was "Bitcoin silver," with code almost copying BTC, just changing block times and algorithms, and that's it. This kind of "knockoff" would be heavily criticized today, but in 2013, the market fell for it—simple, familiar, and flawless. More importantly, it caught the early train of Coinbase and became a perennial in fiat deposit channels. Many veteran investors' first crypto transaction was LTC, with too much inertia. It survived because it was "boring enough"—no earth-shattering upgrades, no epic bugs, just hanging around half-dead and becoming standard for exchanges.
DOGE is even more outrageous. It started as a joke—the founder himself treated it as a parody project, but the community turned it into a cultural symbol. In 2013, meme culture, tipping culture, and Reddit tipping were all piled on DOGE. Later, Musk shouted loudly and directly, turning meme coins into mainstream assets. It had no technical moat, even the founder was gone, but the community consensus was ridiculously strong. DOGE survived because of its "anti-seriousness"—in a circle where everyone talks about tech and financial narratives, it insists on emotion, jokes, and "we're just not serious," which instead wins over the largest and most loyal group of retail investors.
So, is the identity of a "survivor" a halo or a curse? We have to take it apart.
For LTC, it's more like a curse. It is indeed alive, but increasingly marginalized. ETFs have no share, DeFi has no drama, and the Layer 2 narrative has nothing to do with it. When the market talks, it always uses polite terms like "old-time" and "stable," but in reality, funds have long flown to SOL and ETH. Its status as a survivor means it is trapped in the 2013 paradigm, waves of new technology passing by one after another, and it can only watch.
DOGE is different; its curse and aura are one and the same. The halo is that it is the most viral IP in the entire crypto world, and retail investors may be more recognized than ETH; The curse is that it can never escape the original sin of "living off selling orders." When Musk is silent, DOGE's price is like a kite with a broken string. It has no ecosystem, no practical scenarios, surviving only on emotions. This survivor status makes it a paradise for speculators and a nightmare for value investors.
Ultimately, DOGE and LTC emerged from the graveyard of the 2013 coin batch, not because they did something right, but because they each tread a completely different survival path: LTC relied on "boredom is security," DOGE on "absurdity is power." But in this industry, living too long is sometimes not a badge of honor, but a reminder — when the next wave comes, you might still be standing on the shore watching.Institutions are quietly outgrowing the retail-driven crypto narrative, and the data confirms it. Wintermute recently reported that institutions now account for 72% of its spot OTC flow, up from 59% a year ago. That's a meaningful shift in who's actually setting price on large trades.
This week adds more evidence. MARA pledged 18,750 $BTC, worth roughly $1.2 billion, as collateral for $600 million in financing, rather than selling. That's a balance-sheet decision, not a trading one, and it signals confidence in holding through volatility instead of realizing gains. Meanwhile, weekly ETF inflows hit $844 million for $BTC and $244 million for $ETH, the strongest ETH inflow week since April.
Liquidity is also consolidating in derivatives. $HYPE's Hyperliquid open interest has climbed to roughly $10.7 billion, well ahead of competing perpetual DEXs, showing traders are concentrating activity rather than spreading it across venues. That's efficient for liquidity, but it also means shocks could hit harder if sentiment turns.
The overhang is regulatory. The Crypto Clarity Act's delay to September keeps assets like $XRP, $ONDO, and $LINK sensitive to policy risk, even as $BTC and $ETH absorb inflows regardless. $SOL, $AVAX, $SUI, and $HYPE remain more insulated, since their momentum is tied to usage and derivatives activity rather than pending legislation.
Watch whether ETF inflows stay strong through the CPI print, and whether OTC concentration keeps building or reverses.
Do you think institutional dominance in OTC flow makes this market more stable, or just quieter before the next move?[Pharaoh Market Watch]
Don't shout "The market has flipped, the sky is falling" every time it drops, making it look like the Egyptian pyramids are about to collapse. Bing just touched 65,200, then turned back to 64,300—what's going on? Did the market makers run away?
Pharaoh thinks with his toes and tells you: Don't panic, I've seen this play eight hundred times.
Simply put, this is the classic "all the good news is gone, run first to show respect," combined with the traditional "CPI eve scaring the scene" traditional act.
Think about it—Da Bing, like drinking Red Bull, crashed from 62,000 to 65,000, and then surged over 3,000 dollars in one go. This isn't running—it's a hundred-meter sprint! When it hit 65,000, wow, overhead were the 'brotherhood' that got stuck in the past few months, each eagerly waiting to break even. Retail investors thought to themselves: 'Finally broke even, hurry up and run, or you'll be useless if you don't run!' ”
Plus, tomorrow's CPI big boss is about to blow up—who wouldn't be afraid? Everyone is hiding with cash—who dares to go all-in before the data comes out? Isn't it normal to hit you a bit?
Pharaoh will highlight three key points for you, listen carefully:
1. US stocks are rising, gold is rising, and only Da Bing is here acting like a "lying flat youth"—what does that mean? It shows that foreigners aren't interested in FOMO in crypto right now, and funds are slipping away.
2. Market sentiment is still lurking in the corner of "fear." The real bull market atmosphere is "greed to the point of insomnia," while now everyone is "so afraid it causes insomnia"—completely different matters.
3. The CPI sword hangs over the head; if the data is high, rate hike expectations will be revealed. Who dares to bet on direction at this time? That's not the Warriors, that's the "Martyrs."
Once the pullback stabilizes and the gold pit bottoms out, we can dig in hard! $BTC $ETH $BICO #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? I thought $ETH was really different this time
Considering that 1900 lasted so long
I thought this was really a strong support level.
When watching the market every day,
It all gives off a certain feeling.
When others fall, it doesn't fall much.
Even if the news isn't good, it can handle it.
It even made me feel at one point
This time, ETH may really be going to go independent.
But when I looked back,
Wow.
It turns out it's not strong.
It only creates the illusion of a "bottom confirmation" for the market.
Once more people chased after him,
Another wave of downward drops.
——
Actually, after trading for so long, I've noticed a pattern.
At the most dangerous moment
It's not that no one is bullish on the market.
Instead, everyone began to believe that a location was absolutely safe.
1900 was just like that.
The longer the consolidation period,
The stronger everyone's psychological defenses are.
I felt like I couldn't fall down here.
I think the agency will take it.
I think ETF funds will hold it up.
But the market never feels safe just because people think it's safe
It really is safe.
——
The core behind this decline
Not just any news.
Instead, capital sentiment began to shift.
Expectations for rate cuts have heated up
Risk assets are experiencing a rebound.
Many funds have taken advantage of the trend to bottom-fish.
But when the price can no longer break through further,
Short-term funds began to withdraw.
The rise is driven by expectations.
The decline was driven by disappointment.
Once expectations fail
Adjustments often come quickly.
——
$ETH the biggest problem right now
It's not about how much it dropped.
Instead, the trend has returned to a weak range.
Previously, 1900 was bullish confidence.
Now, 1900 has become a position that needs to be broken through again.
If the short-term rebound fails to hold above 1850,
This indicates that buying has not fully returned yet.
Focus on the 1780 to 1800 range.
If this place falls again,
Market sentiment may deteriorate further.
——
$BTC this side is even more obvious.
Recently, it has been fluctuating around 64,000 to 65,000.
Many people are waiting for a breakthrough.
However, there has been no breakthrough through with increased volume.
This kind of movement is the easiest to wear down patience.
The bulls felt they were missing an opportunity.
Bears feel the top is getting closer.
In the end, a large candlestick is often needed to choose the direction.
If it falls below 64,000
The market may retest around 62,000.
——
$SOL this round is actually quite interesting.
When prices rose earlier
On-chain activity and capital enthusiasm have clearly increased.
Many people have started to revisit ecosystem opportunities.
But the problem is
SOL has always been an emotional amplifier.
When the market is good, prices rise sharply.
When the market hesitates
Funds will also prioritize reducing their positions.
So its subsequent performance
It largely depends on the overall risk appetite of the market.
——
$SNDK recent adjustments
Instead, it serves as a wake-up call for the market.
The biggest problem in AI right now
It's not that there is no demand.
Rather, the market has already traded in part of the growth for the coming years ahead of time.
When an industry moves from the "imagination stage" to the "validation stage"
The focus of funding will shift from the story
Turning to real profits.
So even if the performance is excellent,
Funds may also be cashed out.
This is also the most common rhythm among growth stocks.
——
Looking back now.
1900 is not indefensible.
It's just that you can't provide short-term support
Treat it as a bottom that will never be broken.
The biggest trap in the market
It lets you relax when you feel most comfortable.
This time, ETH demonstrated it to everyone again.
When prices rise, you fear missing out.
When it falls, it makes you question your life.
——
For now, I still hold that view.
Before the trend truly changes.
Don't rush to buy the dip against the trend.
Especially in such a volatile market.
Patiently wait for the direction to emerge.
It's more important than rushing to prove yourself.
If the bull market really arrives,
It won't rely solely on the 1900 support bar to prove it.
Instead, it will show everyone a structure of continuous upward growth.
At this stage,
At least the bears still hold the initiative.
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over?
#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up $XAU
Let us briefly talk about gold
The short- to medium-term bottom has already appeared, so it's time to rebound
In June and July, expectations for Fed rate hikes were maxed out, and the market once priced in a 100% rate hike in September, causing gold to hit bottom
Now, there are two main reasons for gold's rebound from the bottom:
1️⃣ Expectations for rate cuts are rebounding
Nonfarm payroll data is weak, the probability of a rate cut in September has risen, and the panicked rate hikes in the first half of the year are no longer a factor weighing gold back
When market rate hike expectations were at their peak, gold hit its bottom in July
2️⃣ Central Bank repurchases gold (Figure 2)
Central banks around the world are also trading gold in swings by buying low and selling high. As you can see, global central banks' gold reserves were very small at the end of last year and early this year, when gold was at its peak
In June and July, when gold was at its low, gold volume surged
Therefore, gold prices around $4,000 in June and July are very cost-effective
3️⃣ Analysis from the K-Line (Figure 3)
In January and February this year, gold fell more than 20% in a single day, with a very clear spike
The key point for this insertion is 4050, while gold has been fluctuating around 4050 for the past two months
Sharp drops at low levels during bull market trends often provide significant support, and if this level has been fluctuating for a long time, the support at this level is very strong
So if gold is at its best entry point, it is around 4050
Currently, gold is still mainly traded for swing trading (taking profit at 4800 is appropriate). I don't think it can break new highs. If it breaks 4400 and then chases gold, the cost-effectiveness will be much lowerIn recent days, many altcoins have started up. Most people think this is a signal for the market to start. How to put it, until the technical gap is filled, any startup before the bulls are liquidated can be considered a bullish entrance. Moreover, the ones that rally are unused altcoins like meme leaders like PEPE and others haven't started, and expect a 20%~30% decline. This is the most basic judgment of the market. Consider Bitcoin reaching 50,000 coins; these altcoins may seem low but actually have even lower levels. Many people ask if there is still a chance for altcoins to rise before the New Year. According to my logic, from October to December this year, the rally mainly comes from Bitcoin starting to launch and the established counterfeit brands following suit. Why do I think prices will rise after October? First, several conditions must be met. First, the technical side must fill the 49,000 gap between August and September. As long as this period is filled, there will also be a surge in technical demand. Second: Fundamentals are all about whether there will be a rate hike in September (I expect to raise rates by 25 basis points). You can check out Wednesday's CPI data (it should be negative). The last shocking nonfarm payroll data was fake and still just acting. By then, all the negative factors in September will be gone, and the technical gap at 49,000 will be filled. After that, there will be a rebound and rally. Here, I want to emphasize one very important point!BlockInfinity Evening Market Report · Negative news on SPCX has been exhausted and short pressure pushes the rally; short covering drives the market, but the issue of unlocking and burning cash remains a hanging sword
Risk warning: This is for information and logic only, and does not constitute any investment advice. U.S. stocks are highly volatile, and shorting or high speculation risks are extremely high
🌍 Macro environment
U.S. stocks overall maintained a volatile pattern, with intensified differentiation in the AI growth sector. Some high-speculation theme stocks experienced extreme rallies, with the SPCX approaching its IPO price of $135, triggering a counterintuitive short squeeze; At the same time, the market saw a brutal single-day 49% plunge in BICO, with clear polarization among thematic stocks.
A market signal that's easy to cross over but remains strong: The market previously unanimously expected the unlocking would bring hundreds of billions in selling pressure, but in reality, after the lock-up, the stock price surged 23% in two days, with market value increasing by over 327 billion. To translate: After the earnings report, the stock price has plunged to a historic low of $104.85. Pessimistic expectations have fully priced in, and the arrival of negative news has turned into "all negative news has been exhausted," combined with massive short positions, triggering a short squeeze to cover short markets.
In terms of token structure, SPCX short positions reached $24.6 billion, surpassing Tesla in size, with 16% of tradable shares sold short. During the rebound, bears were forced to close out and cover their positions, and the buying on the recovered price further pushed prices higher, forming a positive feedback short squeeze. Bear forces still exist, but the chip environment is becoming increasingly unfavorable for bears.
Next key time variable: 10 trading days until the second batch of unlocking window on August 20. The $135 IPO price becomes a short-term core hurdle: holding this position means the short squeeze is likely to continue; If the breakthrough fails, there is a significant risk of pullback.
Fundamental signals are showing contradictions: financial revenue of 7.8 billion, AI business losses narrowed, but capital expenditure was 18.37 billion, a year-on-year surge of 550%. Citibank set a target price of $220, but the premise for a high valuation is that subsequent capital expenditure and cash burning speed will slow significantly; otherwise, valuations will remain under pressure.
Other market indicators: SNDK is trading sideways near 1200; BICO plunged 49% in a single day, a huge loss case among thematic stocks, warning the market of risks in highly competitive sectors.
The spillover to the market is very real: this round of SPCX's rise is not entirely due to fundamental explosions; the core driver is all negative news + massive short covering + new story expectations, which is sentiment + chips-driven rally. The weakness of a chip-driven rally is that once short covering is completed and the second batch of unlocking selling pressure arrives, the market can easily reverse quickly.
Two key points to closely monitor are: 1. The gains and losses at the $135 IPO threshold; 2. The actual selling pressure from the second batch of lock-ups on August 20, and whether subsequent capital expenditures can shrink.
scenario simulation
1. Optimistic scenario: Holding above $135, bears continue to cover and sustain the upward trend, pushing toward the institutional target price range.
2. Benchmark scenario: Pulling back after encountering resistance at the 135 level, entering a consolidation phase of digestion, awaiting the test of the second batch of restrictions.
3. Pessimistic scenario: The second batch of restrictions brought actual selling pressure combined with concerns about burning cash, causing the stock price to enter a correction again. 122 companies. This is the number of virtual asset projects that ceased operations, permanently shut down, or directly filed for bankruptcy liquidation, according to on-chain data firm RootData from March to early August this year. On this long death list are Layer 2 networks once valued at hundreds of millions of dollars, wildly popular decentralized lending protocols, and Web3 infrastructure under various innovative banners.
This is by no means a pessimistic sign of a market peak; on the contrary, it is the entire industry conducting an extremely healthy and inevitable bubble clearance to compensate for the infrastructure supply that has been overhollowed over the past two years.
If we rewind to the last round of fundraising, as long as your whitepaper mentions modular, high-performance Layer 2 networks or decentralized AI computing power, you can secure tens of millions of dollars in early-stage investment before the testnet goes live, and issue tokens at billions of dollars in fully diluted valuations. This is a typical self-reinforcement game: VCs buy early quotas for high-valuation tokens, project teams use the raised funds to create on-chain data and fake daily active users, then expect retail investors in the secondary market to take over when tokens are unlocked, completing the funding loop.
But in the face of real needs, this castle in the air, which relies solely on storytelling, cannot last long.
Today's crypto market faces the worst severe overcapacity in infrastructure. The Ethereum ecosystem is packed with all kinds of similar, universal Layer 2 networks, all operating almost identically. Tokens are used for governance and staking, with no real economic utility. The real transaction demand across the entire network simply can't support the daily operation of hundreds of public chains. Without real ecosystem users and the self-sustaining ability from fees, these projects can only keep consuming inventory tokens to supplement liquidity or rely on VC follow-up funds to survive. When retail investors in the secondary market are completely tired of highly diluted token dumping, and VCs tighten their wallets because they can't see exit channels, this pretending prosperity to pass the flower game simply can't continue.
I had previously interacted for a few days on a privacy-focused Layer 2 network. To be honest, after I transferred my funds through a cross-chain bridge and opened their official ecosystem list, apart from two or three exchange protocols with rough interfaces and weak liquidity, the entire network was empty. I couldn't find any decentralized applications that could attract me to linger, nor could I see any valuable data flow. Looking at the dead and silent blockchain explorer, I had only one thought: this infrastructure, which has completely become a ghost town, besides providing VCs with assets to unlock and dump, what use does it have for the industry's development? Its shutdown and closure are not accidental accidents, but the inevitable result of logical gravity.
A large number of inferior infrastructure projects lacking self-sustaining ability are ruthlessly eliminated by the market, becoming the remedy for industry maturity. When the tide recedes, platforms that truly have capital turnover efficiency, real protocol net income, and stable user retention will regain capital and attention.
Although I firmly believe this brutal elimination competition is the inevitable path for the industry to wash away its glamour, I am also asking myself a risk blind spot that might have been overlooked: if the collapse of many startup teams ultimately leads to a collective loss of confidence in the developer ecosystem, causing a new generation of technical talent to completely distance themselves from the market, then how deep will this ruthless purging drag the lower bound go?
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Sisters!
From the first order with a 77% floating profit to today's full liquidation, what have I been through?
I've closed all my positions, now I'm going to short Dogecoin!
The account was spotless. Last $BICO, I went long and doubled my profits.
$SNDK Short position cut and lost 18 points. Profit and loss, all the effort was wasted.
Saying he was unwilling would be a lie.
BICO went from 0.025 to 0.047, with the highest floating profit nearly 90 points unused, and in the end, only half the profit was taken out.
That's just how people are: when they make money, they want to earn more; when they lose, they want to carry it back. In the end, it's like drawing water with a bamboo basket.
But clearing your account feels pretty good too. Start over.
Then I set my sights on DOGE.
Current price is 0.06968, all moving averages are stuck together, sideways for almost a month.
On August 7th, the hourly chart just formed a "death cross," with the 50-period moving average crossing below the 200-period moving average.
The weekly chart also showed a death cross, the first time since 2023. The price is 14% below the 50-day SMA and 22% below the 200-day SMA.
Global long-short positions show net long positions at 73.1%, with a ratio of 2.72. Binance futures' "smart money" is even more extreme, with net long positions at 77.6% and a net long position ratio of 3.46.
Retail investors are buying, big players are buying, so many are bullish, who will take over? Spot traffic tells another story: spot sellers have real-time trading volume 8.2 million USD more than buyers.
Holding a large position and net spot selling — historical experience shows that the side with more people is usually the one who gets squeezed out.
There's another big warning. Dogecoin spot ETF just recorded its first net outflow in July, $520,000. Institutions are pulling out, retail investors are rushing. Someone opened a 40x short position at 0.071; I'm timid, 3x is enough. Short position near 0.07, stop loss at 0.074, target 0.065. Profit-loss ratio is worthwhile. After being sideways for so long, you have to choose a direction. I bet downward.
$BTC
#本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?
#存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#现货ETF资金回流, can BTC and ETH take over? ⚡ WHY SOLANA’S CULTURE COULD BE ONE OF ITS BIGGEST ADVANTAGES
One thing I think Solana’s leadership has done exceptionally well is supporting founders and ideas across the entire spectrum — even when an experiment looks strange, unconventional, or downright cringe. 😅
That openness gives builders permission to be weird, creative, and highly expressive.
In some ways, it reminds me of what Ethereum felt like in its early days.
And that matters.
When founders have the freedom to experiment, more ideas get tested on-chain. Most will fail, but that’s part of the process.
Because eventually, one weird experiment can become a massive on-chain game, a new financial primitive, or an entirely new crypto category.
You don’t want to decide in advance which experiments deserve to exist and which don’t.
Supporting only the “serious” ideas can actually discourage innovation and alienate builders.
The goal should be to maximize the number of experiments happening.
More experiments → more discoveries → new products → liquidity → users.
🔥 **The best ecosystems aren’t necessarily the ones that predict the next big thing.
They’re the ones that create an environment where the next big thing has a chance to emerge.**
$SOL #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases While attention stays fixed on Wednesday's CPI print, a quieter supply-side risk is building underneath it: this week carries one of the heaviest token-unlock calendars in months, led by YZY releasing roughly 23% of its circulating supply, alongside sizable unlocks for $AVAX, $APT, and Pump.fun. Unlock events like this rarely move price alone, but they matter most when liquidity is already thin, and derivatives open interest data shows exactly that kind of thinning: capital is concentrating into fewer venues, with Hyperliquid's perpetual DEX open interest now near $10.7B, far ahead of $HYPE's closest competitors.
That combination, concentrated derivatives liquidity plus a heavy unlock week, creates asymmetric risk for lower-cap tokens with active vesting schedules, even if $BTC and $ETH stay range-bound on macro anticipation. Meanwhile, steady ETF inflows into $BTC and $ETH, alongside institutional stablecoin moves like Samsung's planned wallet integration, suggest large-cap capital is behaving defensively rather than rotating into altcoins like $XRP, $ONDO, $LINK, $SUI, or $DOGE right now.
The unlock overhang could be the week's real volatility driver, not CPI. Do you agree unlock supply is being underweighted relative to macro catalysts this week?#Bitcoin ETF weekly net inflow of $853 million
This data gets my blood boiling!
$853 million! Five consecutive days of net inflow! Setting a single-week inflow record since April! Has the market finally come to its senses?
Do you know what's the most outrageous? BlackRock alone swallowed $694 million, accounting for 80% of the total inflow! This isn't just capital inflow, it's institutions scrambling to accumulate! And the positive fund flow for five consecutive days is the first time in 15 weeks, completely ending the previous bleak situation of over $8.2 billion outflow in eight consecutive weeks.
But to be blunt, why do I feel a chill behind this?
The money is real cash coming in, but BTC price is still hovering around 64,000, grinding sideways. This is not right! The Coinbase premium, an indicator measuring US institutional demand, has been negative for 80 consecutive days. What does this mean? Most of the ETF money is more arbitrage funds playing around, not those long-term institutions blindly buying.
And there's a hidden risk — the average holding cost for short-term holders is $67,523, now the price is $64,952, meaning these people are down 3.8%. When the price rebounds near their cost line, selling pressure could come crashing down at any time.
My stance: The $850 million inflow indicates a good direction, but whether $BTC can hold above 65,000 or even higher depends on whether the spot market has real demand to follow. Prices pushed up solely by ETF buying can be wiped out by a single bearish candle.
Brothers, the scene is heating up, but don't rush to pile all your chips in. Wait until it firmly holds $65,000 with real cash before talking about faith. Do you think this ETF inflow is a signal of a bull market turnaround? Let's debate in the comments!$SPCX at $135 — do you choose to go long or short?
Before the unlock on August 6th,
everyone thought the price would crash due to the unlock.
Short sellers entered early, with 34% of the circulating shares shorted.
However, unexpectedly, there was no immediate collapse.
At this point, shorts need to cover (short sellers borrow shares from brokers to sell short; when closing the position, they need to buy back shares from the market to return to the broker).
When a large number of shorts cover simultaneously, a short squeeze begins, accelerating the stock price upward.
Retail investors see the price rising and also chase longs.
This is the reason for the current rally.
911.5 million shares available for sale have not disappeared into thin air.
More unlocks are still on the way.
I don't think Musk will buy back most of the circulating shares.
The possibility of a big surge in $SPCX within this year is low.
Shorting remains the most cost-effective strategy. While the market was so cold that no one was watching, there were still people heavily going long on Bitcoin in CME futures.
$BTC After five weeks of grinding near 64,000, Binance's spot trading volume kept shrinking, and most people were waiting for a deeper dip to buy the dip. But the latest CME futures net position shows hedge funds and institutions increasing their long positions for several consecutive weeks. This position has been negative for years, because institutions usually buy spot and short futures to profit from price differences, so net long positions have grown abnormally, which only indicates that larger funds are actively going long.
The two similar signals in history are worth remembering. Last year, during the deepest pullback to 74,000, hedge funds went long heavily, and then the price climbed all the way to 126,000. Before the last consecutive month of short squeezes, institutions suddenly went long on futures, and retail investors were lured short, causing prices to plummet nearly 30%. Negative signals have also worked: the week the price rebounded above 80,000, short positions suddenly surged four to five times before, then MicroStrategy announced the first wave of selling, triggering the largest capitulation in history, with prices dropping back to over 50,000 in one go.
Now, starting from 57,000, these bulls are increasing their positions, and the number continued to rise last week. On-chain data is moving in the same direction: small investors with fewer than 10 tokens are selling, whales with more than 100 tokens are buying. The volatility signal has been on continuously for longer than the previous two major market waves; the longer momentum is squeezed, the fiercer the release. As long as the price stays above 64,000, there is still a chance to challenge 68,000 to 71,000.
No one can know with 100% certainty where the lowest point lies. In the final phase of the bear market, buying in batches is more practical than betting on a perfect bottom.
#比特币In recent days, many altcoins have started up. Most people think this is a signal for the market to start. How to put it, until the technical gap is filled, any startup before the bulls are liquidated can be considered a bullish entrance. Moreover, the ones that rally are unused altcoins like meme leaders like PEPE and others haven't started, and expect a 20%~30% decline. This is the most basic judgment of the market. Consider Bitcoin reaching 50,000 coins; these altcoins may seem low but actually have even lower levels. Many people ask if there is still a chance for altcoins to rise before the New Year. According to my logic, from October to December this year, the rally mainly comes from Bitcoin starting to launch and the established counterfeit brands following suit. Why do I think prices will rise after October? First, several conditions must be met. First, the technical side must fill the 49,000 gap between August and September. As long as this period is filled, there will also be a surge in technical demand. Second: Fundamentals are all about whether there will be a rate hike in September (I expect to raise rates by 25 basis points). You can check out Wednesday's CPI data (it should be negative). The last shocking nonfarm payroll data was fake and still just acting. By then, all the negative factors in September will be gone, and the technical gap at 49,000 will be filled. After that, there will be a rebound and rally. Here, I want to emphasize one very important point!
I remember I posted a while ago mentioning Trump's November midterm elections. Before that, there will definitely be many positive policies to win public support, and when the stock market rises, the Bitcoin bill might also pass. You can check the timeline.
$BTC If you want to make a copycat, you must wait until Bitcoin drops to 50,000 before making a move!While the market was so cold that no one was watching, there were still people heavily going long on Bitcoin in CME futures.
Bitcoin has been grinding around 64,000 for five weeks, with spot trading volume shrinking, and most people are waiting for a deeper dip to buy the dip. But the latest CME futures net position shows hedge funds and institutions have been increasing long positions for several consecutive weeks. This position has been negative for years, because institutions habitually buy spot and short futures to profit from the spread, resulting in abnormal net long positions, which only indicates that larger funds are actively going long.
The two similar signals in history are worth remembering. Last year, during the deepest pullback to 74,000, hedge funds went long heavily, and then the price climbed all the way to 126,000. Before the last consecutive month of short squeezes, institutions suddenly went long on futures, and retail investors were lured short, causing prices to plummet nearly 30%. Negative signals have also worked: the week the price rebounded above 80,000, short positions suddenly surged four to five times before, then MicroStrategy announced the first wave of selling, triggering the largest capitulation in history, with prices dropping back to over 50,000 in one go.
Now, starting from 57,000, these bulls are increasing their positions, and the number continued to rise last week. On-chain data is moving in the same direction: small investors with fewer than 10 tokens are selling, whales with more than 100 tokens are buying. The volatility signal has been on continuously for longer than the previous two major market waves; the longer momentum is squeezed, the fiercer the release. As long as the price stays above 64,000, there is still a chance to challenge 68,000 to 71,000.
No one can know with 100% certainty where the lowest point lies. In the final phase of the bear market, buying in batches is more practical than betting on a perfect bottom.
#比特币 #BTCBIP-110 fork halted for 8 hours—Bitcoin's real moat is still consensus
The results after launch are actually more interesting than the debate itself.
About 8 hours after launch, the chain supporting the fork mined only 2 blocks, then basically stalled, and the gap with the Bitcoin mainnet kept widening. This result reveals a problem:
In the Bitcoin ecosystem, technical solutions are not the deciding factor; what truly determines rule changes is community consensus.
My view is: I believe the failure of BIP-110 does not mean that the "restriction of inscriptions" direction has no value, but rather that any plan to change Bitcoin's underlying rules must gain sufficiently broad support from miners, nodes, and users.
This is also the biggest difference between Bitcoin and many other blockchains.
Many projects can quickly upgrade through foundations and team voting, but Bitcoin lacks centralized administrators. If you want to change the rules, you have to face a game of competition across the entire ecosystem.
The core of the BIP-110 controversy is not just inscriptions.
Supporters argue that writing large amounts of non-financial data will take up block space, increase transaction costs, and affect Bitcoin's efficiency as a value store network.
Opponents worry that artificially restricting certain types of transactions could undermine Bitcoin's long-standing principles of openness and neutrality.
Both viewpoints are valid.
But in the end, the outcome is determined by reality:
Is there enough computing power to support it？
Are there enough nodes to run?]
Is there enough user recognition?
If the answer is no, even if the code is released, it will be difficult to truly change the main chain.
I believe the biggest lesson this event offers the market is:
Bitcoin's greatest value lies not in the 210,000 supply cap, but in its governance mechanism that is difficult for a few to change.
Of course, this mechanism also means reduced efficiency.
Slow upgrades, frequent controversies, and long consensus formation cycles are all costs Bitcoin must bear.
But in the long run, it is precisely this "hard to change" that makes the market believe it won't be easily controlled by any organization.
Therefore, when it comes to BTC investment, I won't let a single failed fork or ecosystem disputes change my long-term judgment.
In the short term, focus is on market sentiment; in the long term, focus on three things:
First, whether network security continues to improve;
Second, whether global capital continues to recognize BTC as a non-sovereign asset;
Third, can the Bitcoin ecosystem continue to develop while maintaining its core principles?
BIP-110 ultimately stalled, possibly just a governance experiment.
But it once again proves one thing:
In the Bitcoin world, changing code is easy, but changing consensus is hard. What truly determines the future is never a single proposal, but whether the entire ecosystem is willing to move in that direction together.
#比特币BIP-110 fork stalled, miner support is insufficient $BTC Why was selling pressure "eased"?
- Stepwise Unlocking: Uses nine phased breakdowns to avoid a one-time shock.
- First batch on August 6: only about 20%, approximately 1.8 billion shares, released instead of the full 9.115 billion shares.
- Subsequent phases: about 7% released on August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 26.
- After Q3 earnings: an additional 28% release is expected.
- 180-day maturity: Early December 2026, with all remaining shares not unlocked in advance unlocked.
- Musk locked up: about 42% of shares are locked until June 2027, with no early stepwise unlocking available.
Bears remain, but "crowded short selling" poses a risk of short squeezing
- Short selling scale: about 219 million shares, about 34% of outstanding shares, with a nominal size of about $25 billion.
- Position increase: Rapidly increased from about 23.3 million shares at the IPO stage to 219 million shares.
- Book Gains: After a pullback, short positions have a book profit of about $7 billion.
- Short squeeze risk: If actual reduction falls short of expectations, short covering may trigger a rebound.
How do you track it?
- Monitor share reduction data: Pay attention to SEC Form 4 to track the actual scale and pace of insider reductions.
- Watch stock price and transactions: If the stock price rises instead of falling on the next trading day after the lock-up is lifted, be cautious of short squeezes; If volume drops sharply, selling pressure dominates.
- Check institutional ratings and target prices: Most institutions remain bullish, with an average target price of about $221.
- Looking for valuation support: Morgan Stanley believes that the $100 level already fully reflects pessimistic expectations.
My opinion
The market held up during the August 6 unlocking wave, and the stock price didn't crash but actually rose. But that doesn't mean the following rounds can hold up—each batch of unlocking brings new supply shocks.
Why does saying "you can endure August" doesn't mean "you can also hold out later?"
After the first batch of shares was unlocked on August 6, the stock price actually surged, mainly due to trading maneuvering (short stampede) rather than fundamental victories:
- Short sellers forced to short: Before the lock-up, the short selling ratio reached as high as 34%. Once the stock price stabilized slightly, large short positions were forced to buy and cover losses out of concern, creating a cycle of "buying more as prices rose."
- "Can sell" does not mean "must sell": unlocking only grants the qualification to sell. When stock prices are relatively low, some early investors choose to "hold back," resulting in actual selling pressure less than the theoretical "market value of 100 billion yuan."
Core difference: With the unlocking in September and October, the market will no longer have the expectation of "all negative news has been released," and it will be difficult to rely on "short covering" to absorb selling pressure. At that time, the trend will depend entirely on genuine buyer demand and insiders' willingness to cash out.
The real test: the "supply flood peak" in September and October
The subsequent unlocking scale is not only large, but also more complex:
- Monthly supply increases: August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, October 26, each month saw about 319 million shares unlocked, totaling about 700 million shares over two months.
- The "massive shock" after the Q3 earnings report: After the Q3 earnings are released (expected in early November), 28% of the lock-up shares (about 1.276 billion shares) will be unlocked in one go. This is an even stronger shock than the first batch in August, and the market expects to price in advance in September-October.
Trading advice: Why is "waiting for the chip to stabilize" the optimal solution?
At the current position, "not heavily invested, just wait and see" is the most cost-effective strategy, for the following reasons:
- Valuation is in a "Schrödinger state": in terms of short-term losses, it is very expensive; In terms of future AI computing power/Starlink monopoly, it still has room for imagination. When large amounts of chips flood in, the market often prioritizes trading "short-term bearish" (selling pressure).
- Avoid becoming a "buyer": insiders' holding costs are extremely low, and their willingness to sell is not affected by whether the secondary market is "cheap." At the beginning of the lock-up, selling pressure is constant, and entering too early can easily buy "halfway up the mountain."
- Wait for clear signals: Only when a subsequent round of unlocking occurs and stock prices rise instead of falling can it be confirmed that selling pressure has been absorbed by the market, making right-side entry much more certain than left-side bottom-fishing now. Saying "You held out in August" doesn't mean you can endure later.
After the first batch of shares was unlocked on August 6, the stock price actually surged, mainly due to trading maneuvering (short stampede) rather than fundamental victories:
- Short sellers forced to short: Before the lock-up, the short selling ratio reached as high as 34%. Once the stock price stabilized slightly, large short positions were forced to buy and cover losses out of concern, creating a cycle of "buying more as prices rose."
- "Can sell" does not mean "must sell": unlocking only grants the qualification to sell. When stock prices are relatively low, some early investors choose to "hold back," resulting in actual selling pressure less than the theoretical "market value of 100 billion yuan."
Core difference: With the unlocking in September and October, the market will no longer have the expectation of "all negative news has been released," and it will be difficult to rely on "short covering" to absorb selling pressure. At that time, the trend will depend entirely on genuine buyer demand and insiders' willingness to cash out.
The real test: the "supply flood peak" in September and October
The subsequent unlocking scale is not only large, but also more complex:
- Monthly supply increases: August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, October 26, each month saw about 319 million shares unlocked, totaling about 700 million shares over two months.
- The "massive shock" after the Q3 earnings report: After the Q3 earnings are released (expected in early November), 28% of the lock-up shares (about 1.276 billion shares) will be unlocked in one go. This is an even stronger shock than the first batch in August, and the market expects to price in advance in September-October.
Trading advice: Why is "waiting for the chip to stabilize" the optimal solution?
At the current position, "not heavily invested, just wait and see" is the most cost-effective strategy, for the following reasons:
- Valuation is in a "Schrödinger state": in terms of short-term losses, it is very expensive; In terms of future AI computing power/Starlink monopoly, it still has room for imagination. When large amounts of chips flood in, the market often prioritizes trading "short-term bearish" (selling pressure).
- Avoid becoming a "buyer": insiders' holding costs are extremely low, and their willingness to sell is not affected by whether the secondary market is "cheap." At the beginning of the lock-up, selling pressure is constant, and entering too early can easily buy "halfway up the mountain."
- Wait for clear signals: Only when a subsequent round of unlocking occurs and the stock price rises instead of falling can it be confirmed that the selling pressure has been digested by the market. At that point, entering on the right side is much more certain than bottom-fishing on the left side now.🗺️ MY SIMPLE CRYPTO MARKET MAP
This is how I currently view the crypto ecosystem. 👀
What do you think? Let me know in the comments.
Instead of looking at crypto as a random list of tickers, think of it as an interconnected network of different technologies and financial layers.
🟢 Financial Layer — DeFi
$AAVE $UNI $JUP
🔵 Blockchain Layer — Layer 1s
$ETH $SOL $SUI $AVAX
🔴 Asset Layer — RWA & Tokenization
$ONDO $PAXG
🟣 Scaling Layer — Layer 2s
$ARB $OP $STRK
🟠 Computing Layer — AI & Decentralized Compute
$TAO $RENDER $FET
🟡 Monetary Layer — Scarcity & Digital Money
$BTC $LTC $XMR
Of course, these categories aren’t completely separate. Some projects serve multiple roles and can benefit from several narratives at once.
That’s the key.
Crypto isn’t just a collection of isolated tokens.
It’s an interconnected ecosystem where liquidity, infrastructure, applications, assets, scaling, computing, and monetary networks all influence each other.
Once you understand how these sectors connect, it becomes much easier to understand where narratives are forming — and where capital may rotate next.
🧠 Don’t just memorize the tickers.
Understand the architecture.
$BTC $ETH#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases $SOL 这个目标还是很到位的呀，75.8
最低打到75.78，老猫这实力懂得都懂！ 今天主流的策略纷纷达到目标。
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ $BTC $ETH #黄金升破4300美元, are the funds at risk of interest rate cuts or safe havens?
Gold has risen, so why hasn't Dabing followed suit?
The correlation between these two assets is breaking down. Gold's logic chain is short; once interest rate expectations move and the dollar weakens, it immediately rebounds. Bitcoin's chain is much longer; it needs liquidity to be transferred to risk assets first, then for liquidity to recover within the crypto market, with more than one layer in between.
On top of that, Pancake is still digesting a lot of issues: the CLARITY Act hasn't been implemented, stablecoin liquidity is shrinking, and mining companies are still selling off. Macro positive news is coming in, but it has to overcome several hurdles.
For traders, the core value of this is not "why not follow Bitcoin when gold has risen," but rather that it provides a reference—if the gold price breakout continues, it will eventually drive liquidity to spill over into risk assets. Bitcoin will be one of the beneficiaries, though the pace will be half a beat slower.
Simply put, gold is pricing in rate cut expectations, while Bitcoin is still waiting for its own catalyst. The two assets are now going their separate ways, but liquidity will eventually be transmitted.
Just wait. Gold prices rising is a good thing, but it's not something you can immediately follow with big pies. Wednesday's CPI is the real direction.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH $XAUT Key point: Some thoughts on this round of knockoff season:
If you play this cycle by the logic of the previous knockoff cycle, your mindset will inevitably collapse.
1. What everyone thinks of as the Knockoff Season:
1. Just like last round, all coins have risen, regardless of whether they're new or old
2. Only when the rate of increase matches the previous cycle is it truly a rally, and that's what makes it a knockoff season
In fact, many altcoins in this bull market are already quite large. If you don't make money, it's because:
1. Missing the right rhythm and missing out on surging sectors
2. Late entry and high chip costs
For example, if you buy a WLD at 9U or Ordi at 70U, you call it trash. Without a knockoff season, just look at how much they've risen from the bottom. Why didn't you buy earlier?
The two versions above are both part of the local hotspot season,
Investors holding onto old coins shouldn't expect all old coins to reach or even break previous highs—not every coin is inj
Most old coins have already exited the stage of history, but in the final stage of the bull market, they all make a shot to show respect for the bull market.
The core of knockoffs during local hotspot seasons: the narrative of important bull market hype
So the knockoffs that can complete the bull market cycle tasks:
1. Old Coins: Concentrated chips, project teams still working, able to keep up with market trends, timely adaptation, and marketing hype.
2. New Coins: Concentrated chips, no trapped trading, undergoing a period of shakeout
3. The launch of major exchange is the prerequisite for ensuring the market's sustainability.
2. We must see reality clearly:
1. The number of knockoffs is several orders of magnitude higher than in 2021, and the market value is also high
2. The overall rate of increase in each bull market cycle has been declining.
3. Even with this round of rate cuts, the scale is likely to be less than in 20 years
4. The water from rate cuts will still only enter the hot topics in the market.
This round of altcoins is still following the logic of a bull market. Local hotspot seasons will continue to emerge, but they won't just speculate on one hotspot—rotation will continue.
Rate cuts won't bring widespread price hikes during the knockoff season; they will only make the hot season even hotter!
New funds keep entering the market, causing local hotspot altcoins to rise even more (but still without the explosive power of the previous bull market), liquidity strengthens, and the tide won't recede as quickly as now, but rather slows down.
Rotating hot topics like this is basically no different from the altcoin season. As long as you're not foolish and don't constantly hold onto altcoins like Sushi CRV, you can at least rotate them.
The era of lying flat to make money is over; the thinking chives are better at making money in the bull market than those who actually act$BTC MARA sold 23,093 BTC in the first half of the year! Major shift in holding strategy for listed mining companies
August 10
Data shows that in the first half of 2026, MARA sold a total of 23,093 BTC, with a total transaction value of about $1.6 billion, and an average selling price of $70,631 per BTC.
As of the end of June, MARA still held 35,577 BTC, with a market value of about $2.3 billion at current prices.
In the past, the market focused more on the growth of MARA Bitcoin inventory, but neglected large-scale selling. This indicates a clear shift in the strategies of leading listed mining companies: they no longer simply hoard coins as soon as they get them, but are now actively selling treasury BTC to cope with high capital expenditures, repay debt, optimize corporate capital structures, and simultaneously lay out AI computing power and energy infrastructure transformation businesses.
Core information breakdown
1. Selling Background: After the halving, mining operations pressure increased
After Bitcoin's halving, block output returns are halved, and mining companies' electricity, equipment, and new infrastructure capital expenditures remain high. Relying solely on mining production cash flow is no longer enough to cover expansion demand. MARA shifted from "hoarding coins" to a hybrid treasury strategy of hoarding coins + selling at opportunistic times, cashing at high prices to improve its balance sheet, with some funds used to repay convertible bond debt and invest in AI data center construction.
In March alone, 15,133 BTC were sold, amounting to about $1.1 billion, marking the largest sell-off in the first half of the year.
2. It is not a clearance exit; inventory remains large
Sold 23,093 coins in half a year, but still holds 35,577 Bitcoins, still belonging to the world's leading Bitcoin corporate vault. This shows it's not about being bearish on Bitcoin, but about liquidity management at the business level.
3. Industry Microcosm: More and more listed mining companies are selling inventory
Not only MARA, but many US mining companies have also seen the phenomenon of selling existing BTC this year. This is no longer just about selling newly mined coins daily, but directly moving historical holdings—this is a significant new change in this cycle.
The real-world impact on the market
- Short-term: The selling already completed in the first half of the year is a price paid off, and there will be no direct sell-off on the current market.
- Medium-term risk: If this "high-price sell-off of treasury BTC" strategy continues, each round of Bitcoin rebound could be suppressed by selling pressure from mining companies.
- Hedging Forces: Continuous inflows into spot ETFs and some listed companies increasing holdings will offset supply pressure from mining companies. Ultimately, the market will focus on the strength of institutional buying and mining company selling.
Key distinction: mining companies sell off ≠ immediately plunge; But this means the market has an additional set of supply that will sell when a rebound occurs, making it an on-chain indicator that needs to be tracked long-term.
Summary
MARA's data reminds the market: at bull market peaks, listed mining companies will treat treasury Bitcoin as corporate cash assets for allocation.
On one side, ETF institutions are continuously buying; on the other, mining companies cash out on high prices—these two forces are locked in a constant tug-of-war. Going forward, it is necessary to keep tracking the monthly selling data of each mining company to see if selling pressure will further intensify.#比特币etf周净流入8 53 million USD
These numbers make my blood boil!
$853 million! Five consecutive days of net inflows! Setting a single-week inflow record since April! Has the market finally snapped out of it?
Do you know what's the most outrageous part? BlackRock alone swallowed 694 million, accounting for 80% of the total inflow! This isn't just an inflow—institutions are scrambling to raise funds! Moreover, five consecutive days of positive capital inflow are the first in 15 weeks, completely ending the previous eight weeks of over $8.2 billion in outflows.
But to be blunt, why do I feel a chill down my spine?
Real money is coming in, but BTC prices are still stalling around 64,000. Something's wrong! The Coinbase premium, an indicator measuring US institutional demand, has been negative for 80 consecutive days. What does this mean? The money from these ETFs is mostly used by arbitrage funds, not by long-term institutions that buy with their eyes closed.
And there's another hidden danger—the average cost for short-term holders is $67,523, and now the price is $64,952, meaning they've lost 3.8%. Once the price rebounds near their cost line, selling pressure could drop at any moment.
My stance: 850 million in inflows indicates a positive direction, but whether $BTC can hold above 65,000 or even higher depends on whether the spot market has genuine demand to keep up. Just relying on ETF buying pushing prices up can be recovered by a single bearish candle.
Guys, the market is heating up, but don't rush to pile all your chips in. Wait until it holds 65,000 with real money, then talk about faith. Do you think this wave of ETF inflows is a sign of a bull market turning around? Split the discussion in the comments!In recent days, many altcoins have started moving, and most people believe this is a signal for the market to start up.
How to put it, before the technical gap is filled, any start from bulls before liquidation can be seen as induced bulls. Moreover, the ones pulling up are unused knockoffs, like meme leaders like PEPE and others, which haven't even started. A 20%~30% drop is expected. This is the most basic judgment of the market.
Consider Bitcoin reaching 50,000 yuan. These altcoins seem to be at low levels but actually have even lower levels. Many people ask if altcoins still have a chance. I think there will be a rally before the New Year. According to my logic, from October to December this year, the rally mainly comes from Bitcoin kicking off and the old coins flying along. Why do I think prices will rise after October?
First, several conditions must be met
First, technically fill the 49,000 gap from August to September. If you fill this period, the subsequent technical demand will see a surge in demand.
Second: Fundamentals are all about whether there will be a rate hike in September (I expect to raise rates by 25 basis points). You can check out Wednesday's CPI data (it should be negative). The last shocking nonfarm payroll data was fake and still just acting. By then, all the negative factors in September will be gone, and the technical gap at 49,000 will be filled. After that, there will be a rebound and rally. Here, I want to emphasize one very important point!$BTC Bearish Divergence (Hidden)
Spot Volume running flat as Open Interest drops.
Not a good sign, especially on a U.S. Market open Monday...8 月 10 日，截至 8 月 7 日标普 500 指数席勒市盈率（Shiller PE，CAPE）升至 42.39 倍，远高于 17.40 倍的长期均值，仅低于互联网泡沫时期 44.19 倍的历史峰值，同时超过 1929 年大崩盘前 32.56 倍的估值水平，当前已进入历史第二次 CAPE 超过 40 倍的极端区间。
分析指出，CAPE 指标主要用于衡量长期投资回报预期，而非预测市场短期顶部。目前 CAPE 超过 40 倍的历史案例几乎全部集中于 1999 年至 2000 年的互联网泡沫时期，因此不能简单以单次泡沫周期推断未来十年美股必然进入「失去的十年」。
不过，高估值意味着美股长期估值容错空间正在下降。未来市场回报将更多依赖企业盈利持续超预期，而非依靠估值进一步扩张。
市场认为，人工智能（AI）浪潮带来的生产效率提升、利润率改善和企业盈利增长，可能帮助高估值维持更长时间。但如果 AI 盈利兑现不及预期，或实际利率继续上升，高估值环境可能放大市场调整压力。
CAPE 释放的核心信号是，美股未来十年预期收益率可能面临下降压力，但该指标并不能直接意味着美股即将见顶，也无法推断未来十年实际收益必然为负。$SNDK #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ I $HOME long at 0.009448. This is not an emotional long because the price is rising sharply, but an order based on a fairly clear technical structure.
Reasons why I choose LONG HOME:
On the 15M frame, HOME has been accumulating for quite a long time in the 0.0094–0.0098 zone. The price has been sold down many times but has not been able to break the bottom, indicating that the selling force is weakening.
The most important point is that the price has broken out of the consolidation zone and at the same time broke the short-term downtrendline. After the breakout, the price continues to hold the 0.0100 area instead of returning to the bottom.
On the 1D frame, HOME is also showing signs of recovery from a strong bottom. The price has now exceeded the 0.0100 Fibonacci zone, so if this area is maintained, the probability of continuing to extend the uptrend will be higher.
The next zone I expect is 0.01165. This is a near resistance zone and also an important target after the price breaks out of the consolidation zone.
Therefore, I chose to enter 0.009448, which is quite close to the support area instead of chasing when the price has risen sharply.
The invalidation point of the setup is below 0.00935. If the price turns down and loses this area, the breakout structure will be broken and I accept the stop order.
In Summary:
Entry: 0.009448
SL: 0.00935
Expected City: 0.01165
Area to Hold: 0.0100
Main reason: consolidation → trendline breakout → reclaim 0.0100 → towards the Fibonacci/upper resistance.
What I like most about this setup is that the R:R ratio is very good. I don't need the price to go up too far, as long as HOME continues to keep the current breakout structure, the order has an advantage.
Note: this is an analysis for my setup, not a recommendation to use 20x leverage. With high leverage, even a short scan can cause big damage. Maji Big Brother really did get hurt this time. I just finished refreshing the Hyperliquid public address, which was around 23:20 Beijing time on August 10. The account hadn't reset to zero, and the unsold position remained, but that ETH long position had dropped from the previous outrageous 6,600 to 4,200. This is no longer just minor tweaks. Between 6,600 and 4,200 ETH, with 2,400 ETH missing in between. At a price of over $18 million, the nominal size of the position is less than $4 million. Just moments ago, they were struggling on the edge of life and death, but now the market has cut them down in a huge chunk. Currently, the outstanding position is 4,200 ETH long positions, with a 25x cross-margin ratio, an average opening price of $1,893.59, and a position value of about $7.88 million. The account equity is only $190,400, and the withdrawable balance is still zero. The most striking thing is the floating loss. Previously, he relied on a low average price to hold up a bit of unrealized profit, but now the official interface shows an unrealized loss of about $73,000. In other words, the state of comfort that just now was just on paper, which was just a comforting gesture, was gone. ETH slammed down, and Maji Big Brother's account slid from the edge of the cliff to halfway up the mountain, still clutching a rock, with hardly any path left beneath his feet. The current liquidation price is around $1868.23. At that time, ETH was priced around $1876 to $1877, just over $8 away from the liquidation line. Calculated as a percentage, it's about 0.4本周宏观框架已经基本建立，只要能源价格短期反弹不会太过暴力，基本就会按照这个框架进行
核心看CPI数据能否把降息预期“抢”回来，宏观利率决定了我们手里的钱贵不贵，也决定了我们敢不敢花钱（投资）
如果CPI证明了降息预期要回归，未来的钱便宜，我们就敢花，就会推动风险市场
反之，如果利率预期不利，且美国经济风险暴露过大，那么风险市场相对受到打压。
所以，能源价格不失控，本周的宏观框架基本如此，反馈到我们的交易上，就是新趋势的开始/进一步回调的选择！
目前市场的动态来看：
债市、美元、黄金还有美股都出现了“分裂”走势，能源价格短期反弹，短期让债市收益率走高，但是美元走弱，黄金依旧走强，美股短期承受压力，风险偏好收缩
目前来看，在宏观数据or美伊局势没有出现决定性导向之前，市场定价还是有点混乱，多观察！#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？