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#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
Palantir fired the first shot; next, let's look at AMD, SpaceX, and Circle
Palantir's post-market rally was nearly 12 points, firmly confirming the rule that "financial reports are just tickets; guidance is the real pricing." Revenue growth for the quarter reached 93%, and the company also raised its full-year guidance a bit, which the market recognized quickly. This is a good start to earnings week, but the real highlight is still waiting in line.
Next up is AMD, scheduled to submit its operations after the US stock market closes on August 4. Currently, the market expects revenue of $11.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of nearly 47%. But honestly, at this scale, everyone has a rough idea of the growth rate. What really tests is whether gross margins can hold up, how much real money is needed for AI chips, and how much is piled up in the channels. The MI300 series is being pushed aggressively and is now showing a stance of arm-wrestling with Nvidia. But arm-wrestling and actually putting the other down are two different things. What the capital market needs is to see orders that can continuously squeeze out some water.
On the same day after the market closed, SpaceX also released its first earnings report after going public. This is quite interesting. Of course, the performance itself depends on the situation, especially whether Starlink is making money and whether cash flow can turn around on its own—these are the foundation for valuation. But the bigger variable actually came two days later—starting August 6, with nearly 912 million shares to be unlocked. With chips of this scale, no matter how much they actually sell, just the psychological level alone is enough to make a big deal out of it. Starlink's profitability and the selling pressure from unlocking the unlock will confront each other head-on on the same timeline.
Going back another day, before the market opened on August 5th, Circle was the grand finale. Market consensus revenue is about $714 million, which is basically USDC's circulating supply multiplied by short-term interest rates. There are only two core variables: first, the scale of reserves—by the end of July, the data had shrunk to $72.06 billion; second, how much interest rates could hold up. Volume is declining, while interest rates hold up at high levels. These two issues are in a tug-of-war, and the key is whether interest rates can fill the volume gap. To put it bluntly, the Circle model is straightforward and direct, but so transparent that it's impossible to tell a story—everything is in the numbers.
Three financial reports, three completely different logics. AMD is focused on offense—whether its computing power demand is genuine or superficial; SpaceX is facing a double test: proving Starlink can make money while withstanding the selling pressure from the lock-up; Circle focuses on defense; with shrinking reserves, how long can interest rate dividends last? Palantir has already demonstrated the rules with a 12-point increase. Among the next three companies, whoever can offer something beyond the numbers to make the market willing to reprice will be able to replicate that jump.昨日复盘，$BTC 大饼 625 $ETH 姨太 41 反手哆，拿到最后在吃一口
交易拼的不只是点位眼光，更考验持仓心态，恐慌最容易让人提前下车，错过到手利润
机会永远留给沉得住气、严格执行计划的人，踏实等待信号落袋，落袋为安才是真正到手的收益#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 2026.8.4 10:36 BTC/ETH/XAU/SNDK brief analysis
This night, the US stock market saw the biggest volatility, with Bitcoin and Erbing basically holding steady, while gold and silver showed slightly stronger movement; This week's priority is gold and silver. Last night, I waited for pullbacks to trade; many placed orders at the first intraday point XAU4030 placed orders; Randomly hit the first take-profit level at 4070, no further explanation; Overnight live HYPE long trade, early morning rally but no take-profit, keep holding!
XAU support resistance positions 4300/4100/4030/3975
Last night, I precisely inserted the needle at 4030. Those who placed early orders have already gotten in. The early morning rebound touched 4076 and precisely hit the first take-profit at 4070. At this moment, just keep holding the base position to protect the loss and keep buying.
A pullback of XAG is an opportunity—follow the trend of gold;
BTC support resistance levels are 67135/64750/61050/59800
The key level at this moment is the 62,300-62,600 range, which is roughly 61,600. If it doesn't break effectively, keep the need to touch the 65,000 level;
ETH support resistance levels are 2000/1835/1775/1725
Erbing was strong in July, and so far this month, the 1800 level has remained steady on every pullback. Paying attention to opportunities for small market moves is fine, using support and resistance levels as a reference point to buy longs;
SNDK surged sharply last night. Although it still hasn't completed a full 4-hour breakout on the right side, it rebounded with US stocks like ORCL, MSFT, AMZN, and others, restoring market sentiment; Just continue to follow the trend;
Trading advice does not form any investment basis: simply give an opportunity and strike back. Don't be afraid to stop your losses, and don't be afraid of missing out. Control your position. The current market, a grinding market, is a reshuffling market. Make sure every opportunity is on the market and protect your position as much as possible. You never know when a big rally will come. If you're not on the charts, it will be very FOMO!
#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public #MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, scale halved
I have been closely following the latest developments of MSTR. After reading this coin sale announcement, many people must feel mixed emotions.
Strategy recently disclosed that from July 27 to August 2, it sold another 1,638 bitcoins, cashing out about $104.7 million, with an average transaction price of $63,957, which is even below the holding cost line of $75,419. Compared to the previous round of selling 3,588 coins in early July, this sale scale is directly halved. Currently, the company's bitcoin holdings have dropped to 842,138 coins. Additionally, on-chain monitoring detected about 299 BTC transferred out between August 2-3; whether this counts as a sale will be officially disclosed next week.
Many wonder why MSTR, which once loudly advocated hoarding coins, chooses to sell at a low price? The core reason is actually very clear: this fund is mainly used to pay a fixed 12% annual dividend on preferred shares and to repurchase preferred shares. This expenditure is a rigid payment with no room for avoidance. The announcement also states that the premise for repurchasing bitcoins is that the price of its preferred shares recovers to near the issue price, which currently still has about a 10% gap, making it difficult to immediately restart accumulation in the short term.
As the news of the coin sale spreads, Saylor also publicly explained, breaking many people's fixed perceptions with one sentence: "Never sell" is his personal advice to ordinary savers, not a mandatory rule for a listed company.
Here, it is important to distinguish two entities: Saylor's personal wallet has not moved a single bitcoin, but Strategy is a regulated listed company that must balance financial reports, debts, and shareholder demands, and cannot be expected to follow personal coin hoarding logic for a business.
There is currently huge divergence in the market; some believe selling at a low price signals pessimism, while others understand this is a passive choice due to corporate cash flow and does not mean a lack of confidence in bitcoin's long-term value.
For us traders, there is no need to judge the market solely based on a single piece of news. MSTR's actions are more due to the company's own financial pressure. Everyone should focus on continuously following subsequent on-chain transfer data and preferred share price changes to observe when the coin purchase plan can be restarted.#MSTR sells another 1,638 BTC, halving the scale
After closely watching MSTR's latest disclosed coin sale announcement, I feel a mix of emotions.
Strategy sold 1,638 BTC from July 27 to August 2, cashing out over $100 million at an average price of $63,957. Compared to the holding cost line of $75,419, this means a cut-loss exit. Compared to last month's sale of 3,588 BTC, this time the scale was halved, showing that the operators are controlling the selling pace.
On-chain monitoring also detected nearly 300 BTC transferred out on August 2-3. Whether this counts as a sale will have to wait for next week's financial report disclosure. The official statement clearly explained the use of the sale proceeds: all funds are used to pay 12% annualized preferred stock dividends and to repurchase preferred shares, a fixed expense that cannot be avoided.
As for the threshold to re-accumulate, it has been firmly set: waiting for the preferred stock price to recover near the issue price. The current price gap is still 10%, making it difficult to restart the coin hoarding plan in the short term.
Saylor's response hit the mark for many: "Never sell" applies only to personal savings, not to a publicly listed company. His personal holdings indeed remain untouched, but the listed company must be responsible to shareholders and creditors, and under pressure can only passively sell Bitcoin to maintain cash flow.
Interestingly, after the news broke, the market showed divergence: MSTR-related stocks dipped slightly, while BTC spot prices actually turned slightly positive. On one side, leading institutions are forced to sell at low prices; on the other, spot resilience remains, creating a full tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The temporary shrinkage of institutional passive selling is a short-term small positive, but as long as the preferred stock pressure remains, the risk of subsequent selling pressure cannot be completely eliminated.#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
Tonight's earnings report: What do AMD, SpaceX, and Circle think?
$AMD $SPCX $CRCL
Palantir proved with its results a few days ago that the current market only pays for guidance that exceeds expectations. Tonight, AMD and SpaceX will announce their results; tomorrow, the pre-market Circle will be the grand finale. I'll be straightforward with my views and predictions
🪁 AMD: Computing power demand is the only challenge
Expected revenue is 11.3 billion yuan, with a gross margin around 56%. Last quarter, it relied on data centers to hold the line; tonight, the core depends on whether next quarter's guidance for MI series AI chips can be raised. Major downstream companies urgently need a second supplier, and AMD happens to be stuck in a golden ecological position
▶️ Forecast: The guidance is likely to slightly exceed expectations, but some of the previous share price has already been digested, so it may fluctuate higher. In the medium to long term, market share expansion remains optimistic
🪁 SpaceX: Despite strong performance, it is hard to withstand the pressure from unlocking sell-offs
The first quarterly report hits the 100 billion mark unlocked. Starlink's cash flow and launch monopoly are undeniable, but the early unlocking of low-cost tokens and the short-term liquidity shock are very real
▶️ Prediction: Even with impressive performance, it is hard to withstand the pressure of chip unlocking. In the short term, there is a high probability of volatility and adjustment. Only after selling pressure is released will it be a better time to position your position
🪁 Circle: The dual test of reserve shrinkage and interest rate cuts
USDC reserves shrank to around 72 billion, and with rising expectations of rate cuts, the logic of relying on U.S. Treasury interest was undermined. The key is whether non-interest income, such as payments and cross-chain fees, can be covered
▶️ Forecast: If the proportion of non-interest income rises significantly, valuations may be restructured; If it remains highly dependent on interest rates, the stock price will continue to face short-term pressure.
💡
Among the three major tests, in terms of win rate and certainty alone, AMD's guidance in the AI chain is relatively more worth watching
Non-investment advice for DYOR 玩了这么久的合约，近期又频繁接触链上美股，我是真的发现还是meme适合我。
进圈也有三年了，兜兜转转，爆仓都经历了四五次了。
回头一看我的交易清单，发现我meme上的操作几乎都是盈利的（lab，rave上爆过😂），而这也是我对于meme只空不多带来的结果。
相较于主流币，美股上的各种分析，各种宏观因素的影响，meme上的操作就相对简洁，逢高就空就ok了。
而且经历过lab，rave这些大妖之后，我也逐渐改善了我的meme上的交易方法：
1.每次开单仓位上都得控制好，最好能够扛得住它翻3倍
2.要是发现不对，比如资费居高不下，爆量猛拉后横盘几乎不回踩，这个时候可以对冲锁单，一定不能无脑补仓
3.在大幅盈利后发现有爆量拉升的迹象时，也可以尝试锁仓保住利润，防止反转
4.在浮亏还在能接受的范围时一定一定要扛着
最后，一个破meme还能拉到天上去？
几个月都出不来一个rave、lab，只要扛住，让垃圾回到垃圾桶，那必然能拿到一个好结果。
（不要梭哈，妄想一口气飞上天）When Saylor says, "Never sell your Bitcoin," who exactly is he talking to?
To you. Not to himself.
On August 3, Strategy sold another 1,638 Bitcoins, cashing out $104.7 million.
The average price is $63,957.
Holding cost $75,419.
Each coin lost nearly $11,500.
This is the company's third coin sale since the end of June. Previously, 32 tokens were sold as a trial at the end of May, and 3,588 were sold at the beginning of July.
Here it comes again.
Moreover, the board has raised the cash outage cap from $1.25 billion directly to $5 billion—a fourfold increase.
Someone ran to ask Saylor: Didn't you say "never sell"?
Saylor's response was the most exciting part of the day.
He said on X:
"When I say 'Never sell your Bitcoin,' I'm speaking as one saver to another. I have never sold my Bitcoin, not a single Satoshi. Strategy is a publicly listed company, not my wallet. ”
Translate into adult language:
"The slogan I shout is for you to hear. I really didn't sell myself—but my company sold when it was supposed to sell. ”
CEO Phong Le added a more direct blow:
"When selling Bitcoin benefits the company, we sell. We won't just stand by and say, 'We'll never sell Bitcoin.' ”
He even said, "We are JPMorgan Chase of the crypto economy. Whether to sell 1,000 Bitcoins or 840,000 is not worth discussing at all." ”
Let's see what is "worth discussing":
Net loss of $8.2 billion in the second fiscal quarter.
The stock price fell from just over $400 to around $94.
It has fallen 40% this year and 70% over the past 12 months.
8.2 billion yuan in losses. 70% decline. 400 dropped to 94.
Then you tell me, "Never sell"?
Where did the money from selling these 1,638 BTC go?
Half of the dividends paid on preferred stock—an annualized 12% dividend, you have to pay it.
The other half will repurchase discounted preferred shares.
Saylor's personal faith has not lost a single cent. Strategy's balance sheet is bleeding.
So my conclusion is simple:
Personal beliefs belong to personal beliefs, and listed companies belong to listed companies.
Saylor's personal wallet and Strategy's balance sheet are two different things.
He said, "Even if you sell your kidney, you have to hold onto BTC"—that's to make you sell kidneys.
He didn't sell a single one himself.
The company sells when it needs to sell, lose when it should lose, and fall when it should fall.
Don't treat KOL motivational quotes as if they were listed company financial reports.
Your wallet holds your money.
Saylor's wallet contained his money.
Strategy's balance sheet contains shareholders' money—including yours.
See carefully before taking a side. $BTC $MSTR $XMSTR #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale was halved [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
What exactly does the Fed's recent move mean? From expectations of rate cuts to a hard pivot to rate hikes, with internal divisions becoming public, this script is even harder to predict than Pharaoh's pyramids.
Pharaoh says straight up: on the surface, they’re holding steady, but inside, they’re hawkish as hell. The market is already confused by this old brother Wash.
First, look at how explosive these divisions are. At the July FOMC meeting, the vote was 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, but three regional Fed presidents voted against, advocating a 25 basis point hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction. The Fed is now as divided as Pharaoh’s camel herd, each running their own way.
Wall Street is in an uproar. Morgan Stanley says inflation is clearly trending down, so rates will stay put for the year; Goldman Sachs says price increases are spreading, and the pressure index has hit historic highs.
Old brother Wash is even more extreme. He scrapped forward guidance outright, refusing to give the market a roadmap, saying, "Market participants are learning to watch the ball, not the referee." The result? Long-term US Treasury yields soared above 5.2%, a 19-year high, with investors voting with their feet for higher inflation premiums.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? As long as inflation data keeps beating expectations, rate hike expectations hang overhead. The 63,000 level is neither a bottom nor a top, but a battleground in the middle. Good trades are waited for, not gambled on!
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won’t lose its way! $BTC $ETH $BICO #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 SOL is now 73.9, about the same price as the previous posts. But the undercurrents inside are completely different.
The most obvious is — spot funds have seen net outflows for 12 consecutive hours, with not a single bullish candlestick. Active sell orders suppressed buying, 12 candles in the 3-hour window were all negative. There's nothing to explain about these numbers—it's just that some people are selling products, and it's not something new.
But interestingly, on the other hand: active contract buying accounts for 63%, whales are still increasing their positions, and leveraged lending has piled up nearly 30%. If you borrow money and still take it, it means someone thinks this position is worth it.
Right now, two forces are fighting each other—sellers are putting out, buying is borrowing. The price hovered between 73 and 75, and neither could defeat the other.
The biggest taboo at this position is to pick a side first. When 75 breaks through or 73 breaks out, the direction will naturally emerge. Rushing in now is just providing liquidity to both sides.
#sol $SOLReal estate giant Cardone Capital has made another move, directly increasing its holdings by 350 BTC, equivalent to $22.3 million, marking several consecutive months of regular coin hoarding by the institution. This company is not using loans to increase its holdings, relying entirely on real estate rental cash flow to buy in. Its holdings have long surpassed 2,700 BTC, with a target of 3,000 BTC within the year, and its long-term plan even targets 10,000 BTC.
Combined with the previous on-chain whales continuously withdrawing BTC and ETH to stockpile, combined with the US-Japan exchange rate intervention pushing US Treasury yields higher, the market is clear: tight macro liquidity is suppressing the strong rise, but traditional industrial funds are continuously taking over during the correction range, providing strong support for BTC below.
Unlike short-term speculative funds, real estate funds have long cycles and stable holdings. These funds do not pursue short-term swings but focus more on inflation hedging. As long as institutions keep increasing their positions, the room for deep declines is limited.
What do you think—if industrial institutions keep buying, when will this round of market fluctuations break out of the range? #FinancialReportObserver: AMD and SpaceX Reports Are Imminent, Circle Takes the Spotlight
The first earnings report of the week has already been released. Palantir rose 12% after hours, with revenue growth of 93% and an upward revision of the full-year guidance. The rule verified by the last round of tech earnings still holds—the market doesn’t care about past profits, only whether future profits can continue.
The suspense for the next three companies is clear.
AMD reports after hours tonight, with expected revenue of 11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year. The question it must answer is whether AI chip demand is real. If the gross margin can’t hold, the AI narrative will need to be reconsidered.
SpaceX reports on the same day, its first quarterly report since going public. But the real test is the day after tomorrow, August 6, when over 100 billion in restricted shares unlock. Whether Starlink’s profitability path can convince the market to absorb this supply will determine if this unlock is an opportunity or a trap.
But I don’t plan to focus heavily on these two.
The one to really watch is Circle’s pre-market report on Friday.
Three crypto earnings reports have already been released: Coinbase’s revenue dropped 18.5%, Robinhood’s crypto revenue fell nearly 40%, and USDT growth has almost stalled. All point in the same direction—the market is shrinking.
But one thing hasn’t been confirmed: has the capital completely left, or is it waiting for a compliant entry point?
Circle can answer this question. If USDC circulation is still growing, it means the money hasn’t gone far, just shifted from USDT to USDC. If USDC is also declining, that’s the real warning sign—the stablecoin market is shrinking overall, and the liquidity base is contracting.
The problem is, USDC reserves had already shrunk to 72.06 billion by the end of July. Whether the quantity gap can be filled by interest rates is the core suspense of Circle’s earnings report.
My judgment is clear—Circle is more worth watching than AMD and SpaceX combined. The answer it provides will directly determine the market’s judgment on future liquidity. $BTC $ETH $BICO $BTC $ETH $SOL The market is now completely immune to Trump's usual "hot air"; no one takes what he says seriously anymore, and his trust level is basically zero.
This morning, he again hinted that there are "two-level talks" with Iran and even claimed that the Strait of Hormuz could be open for navigation tomorrow—yet oil prices didn't give him any respect and actually bounced up a bit.
There are actually two things going on here:
First, the market has long treated Trump's hot air as a contrarian indicator.
After he makes statements, oil prices rise, which has almost become a fixed script—not because the market is acting oppositely, but because repeated slaps to the face have created muscle memory; knowing Iran will respond later, it's better to preemptively position long before his statements and catch the rebound.
Second, the real game is over in Oman.
Trump shouting "open navigation first, then talk nuclear" doesn't even raise an eyebrow among investors. The joint management agreement of the strait between Iran and Oman is the real switch; on the surface, it's signed by the two countries, but everyone in the circle knows who's behind it. Once the agreement is finalized, opening navigation is just a side effect—no need for Trump to add drama.
But Trump suddenly jumping in to steal the spotlight at this moment actually disrupts what was a stable rhythm.
Next, it depends on how the Iranian officials respond; most likely, oil prices will surge a bit more.
Anyway, my judgment is: until that Iran-Oman agreement is truly signed, just treat whatever Trump says as background noise. Paying too much attention to it can easily mislead the market rhythm. Is SpaceX safe just for a 6% increase? The real event comes next
Last night, $SPCX surged from around $105 all the way to $116, finally closing at $114.53, up nearly 6%.
This bullish candlestick is quite strong, but if you see it as a reversal now, I think it's still a bit too early.
Tonight is SpaceX's first quarterly report since going public, but the real trouble lies ahead: on August 6, up to 911.5 million old shares will be eligible for sale. Based on the current stock price, the market value is about $104.4 billion.
To be clear, unlocking is not a new issuance, nor does it mean these stocks will definitely be sold. It does not increase total share capital out of thin air; what changes is the supply of chips in the market.
Currently, SpaceX has about 640 million shares in circulation, and this batch of shares to be unlocked exceeds the current circulation. If all of it enters the market, the tradable shares would theoretically increase by about 142%. This is the biggest pressure after the earnings report.
SpaceX's account is also quite interesting.
2025 revenue will reach $18.674 billion, up 33.2% year-on-year; Adjusted EBITDA will reach $6.584 billion, and operating cash flow will also be $6.785 billion. Looking at these alone, it really doesn't seem like a company with poor business.
On the other hand, the net loss for the year was $4.937 billion. Simply adding up the data disclosed by the three business segments, capital expenditure in 2025 will already exceed $20.7 billion.
The money is mainly spent on Starship, Starlink satellite networks, and AI data centers.
Among them, Starlink's connectivity business is actually very profitable: annual revenue of $11.387 billion, operating profit of $4.423 billion. The real drag is the AI business, with an operating loss of $6.355 billion in 2025.
So tonight, we can't just focus on 'whether revenue exceeds expectations.'
What's even more worth watching is whether Starlink's profits can continue to grow, whether the pace of AI and Starship's cash burn has slowed, and whether management is willing to provide clearer follow-up guidance.
To put it bluntly, SpaceX's current business isn't profitable, but rather that its earning speed can't keep up with its spending speed.
On the board, $116–$120 is the first short-term pressure. If the earnings report is good but the stock price can't hold even here, it shows funds are more afraid of the lock-up unlock; If after volume surges on August 6, it can hold above $116, then people are truly willing to take on this batch of shares.
Let's first look at $105, then $100. As for the $135 IPO price, it remains the heaviest position for trapped investors for now.
The logic behind the subsequent trading is actually quite simple: how much the price rises after tonight's after-hours is just sentiment. The real answer is how much remains after Thursday's lock-up is lifted.
Financial reports tell the story, and unlocks test how many people are willing to pay real money to believe the story.
What do you think?
$SPCX
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
Tonight, AMD and SpaceX will hand over their papers, and Circle will be the finale tomorrow morning: No sleep this week, crypto and stock linkages are about to experience major volatility.
Many people are still watching the BTC 4-hour chart, but what truly determines risk appetite this week is the few earnings reports released after the U.S. market closes.
After market closed on August 4:
• AMD: Expected revenue ~11.2 billion, with the focus on MI350 volume ramp-up and data center gross margin. Will the AI chip story continue?
• SpaceX: First financial report after listing, Starlink cash flow + Starship burning cash + unlocking of 100 billion on August 6, Morgan Stanley calls it the "most dangerous moment"
• Pre-market on August 5: Circle (issuer of USDC) made its grand appearance
Why must the crypto community watch Circle?
It's not about whether USDC's market cap has risen, but about one thing: with interest rate cut expectations, reserve interest income will shrink. What will Circle rely on to supplement profits—on-chain payments, institutional settlement, or continue to live off interest rates?
If Circle proves it is not just a "wallet earning US Treasury interest," the USDC narrative will return to the main storyline; Conversely, the stablecoin sector's valuation needs to be heavily priced.
My judgment:
AMD passes the line→ semiconductor + AI asset risk appetite is warming up, BTC is likely to follow the rally, SpaceX is → a shock high-valuation tech is cutting valuations, and knockoffs are the first to kneel. Circle is weak→ USDC premium/stablecoin concept is under short-term pressure. Now is not the time to "bottom-fish," but the time to "wait for the financial report to set the direction."⚠️Breaking signal! The Fed's divisions are becoming public, making the September rate decision meeting highly uncertain
The Fed's quiet period has recently ended, releasing a huge amount of information. I recommend everyone carefully read this chart.👇
The core change is that the disagreement has shifted from "how much to raise" to the directional question of "raise or cut."
1️⃣ Inflation camp vs Employment camp: Harker and others believe inflation is stubborn and restrictions are insufficient; while Waller warns of a deteriorating job market and clearly supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
2️⃣ Chair's stance: Walsh rejects forward guidance, passing the ball to the next two CPI data releases.
3️⃣ Market misjudgment? Current futures market pricing may be overly optimistic (or pessimistic), deviating from the complex spectrum within the committee.
💡 Key point: This means market volatility will increase going forward. Do not blindly bet on a one-sided market; focusing on the upcoming CPI data is the way to go.
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 On the third day, the OKX wild trader was sprinting back on the break-even path. Many people ask me why I always turn losses into jokes and turn plunges into reversing to catch people. Brothers, this is called psychological massage. If you don't cheer yourself up, how can you withstand this K-line blow?
Let's take a look at today's list of strong contenders:
$XPLTR It surged 15 points, which looks quite impressive, with only 50,000 USD in trade. With such a small volume, even the bull sellers couldn't catch their breath. $DORA Quickly followed up with a 13% increase, with over 70,000 USD turned—a classic case of a small pool of surges. The most impressive was $CARDS, with an 11% increase and 180,000 USD in turnover—truly the top among the dwarfs. Meanwhile, $ATOM, the old guy, quietly rose 8.7%, with 7.77 million USD in transactions indicating that big money is secretly hunting for food.
But the more I look at this market, the more something feels off. The top few on the trending list are all low-cap, low-turnover stocks everywhere, with the big Bitcoin and the second round unmoved—a typical case of stock competition. ATOM, a large-cap asset pushed to fifth, shows there's no incremental market at all—it's just speculative money cutting among small coins. In this environment, chasing gains is like delivering food to the big players, or rushing the price.
In the end, we wild traders are always licking the edge of a knife. You think you're bottom-fishing, but you're actually catching a flying knife; You think you're fleeing from the top, but you get off as soon as you start. The worst part isn't losing money, but having to post your views in the group chat after losing money, brothers.
At this stage, my judgment is that short-term sentiment is overheated, hot topics are scattered and there's no main theme. If you chase this kind of market, nine out of ten people will buy in. I'll keep holding steady, better to miss out than make mistakes—after all, living long is the real skill. Coinbase Premium has been negative for 77 consecutive days—the last time Americans didn't take over for such a long time was in 2022. These people weren't afraid; they simply didn't want to buy it.
On the macro front, BTC is currently at 62,528, down 0.93% in 24h. F&G is stuck at 28 Fear, but the rate is still positive at +0.0032%—just saying 'fear', but the perpetual bulls are honest, still paying to hold onto the long side.
Volume shrank by 31.3%, with OI hovering at 111,400 BTC; Tokenized stocks collapsed simultaneously: XSOXL 3x Semiconductor down 13.36%, XSKHY ARK down 5.72%. Risk appetite has been a long time since withdrawal.
For BTC, the 62,500 price limit isn't due to short selling power, but because there are no buyers. Coinbase Premium negative for 77 days = U.S. demand vacuum, Asian funds struggling alone.
Here's something you can take—judging the attitude of US stock funds. Look at Coinbase Premium: consecutive losses = absence of US buyers. At this point, BTC trying to strengthen independently is basically a dream. Don't believe the nonsense of "divergence strengthening"—wait until Premium turns positive before discussing.
I also didn't dare touch my two old positions (ADA long down 1.37%, KAITO short down by 0.81%). Adding them would just heat up stagnant water—what's the point?
A reminder: 10x Research says August might see a bearish bottom, but the bottom isn't guessed—it's a premium positive turn + volume release. Don't rush to buy in early.
The real worst is not the drop, but the fact that no one supports you even when it falls—the Americans voted the most honest vote in 77 days without buying.
In this market, going long gets stabbed in the back by Americans, and short selling is afraid of a sudden spike. I choose to lie flat and be a qualified observer.
Guys, Coinbase Premium hasn't turned positive for 77 days. Do you think Americans will come back this week to take over? Or should we continue to let Asian capital be the bearer? Comment section reports.
#BTC #ETH #Coinbase溢价 #市场情绪 #合约 #美股联动 #OKX星球 #资金流向 #行情分析 #买方缺位🔥 External surges $BTC but haven't caught up? Is it a rebound or a reversal? And how should it be done? Let Brother Hao tell you more
It's a rebound, not a reversal—why?
First, easing between the US and Iran leads to a sharp drop in oil prices.
Trump said the U.S.-Iran negotiations are progressing in two phases, with inflation expectations cooling down.
Second, the epic rebound in US stocks, BTC failed to keep up.
BTC is approaching 64,000 but fails to hold and retreat to around 63,550.
Third, ETF funds are still being withdrawn.
ETFs saw a net outflow of $333 million, marking the third consecutive day of net outflows.
Overall, the rebound was driven by falling oil prices → easing inflation expectations → U.S. stocks, not ETF money returning.
What to do today:
Mainly short selling: If BTC rebounds to 64,000-64,500, you can take a light position and try shorting, targeting 63,000.
Next, keep a close eye on the 63,000 line, hold the consolidation, and if it falls below it, look for 62,500.
#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public $MSFT surged to $487.65 to test previous resistance. The core current contradiction lies in whether the 10.9x P/S valuation anchor can be continuously validated to effectively translate AI capital expenditure into high-margin cloud revenue.
After a single-day increase of 4.93% to $487.65, $MSFT's circulating market capitalization reached $3.62 trillion, with a 24-hour turnover of $61.68 million. From a price structure perspective, this rally pushed the stock price above the 10.9x P/S valuation line corresponding to annualized revenue of $331.84 billion, and the effectiveness of this short-term breakout directly determines the direction of the medium-term trend.
In terms of driver rankings, Hyperscaler capital expenditure ranks first in agent and cloud monetization efficiency, followed by relative valuation cost-effectiveness compared to competitors. Compared to GOOGL's $4.57 trillion market cap corresponding to $445.87 billion in revenue, and AMZN's $3.06 trillion market cap corresponding to $775.68 billion in revenue, $MSFT's valuation premium requires stronger margin growth to offset.
The upward scenario requires the stock price to hold above the $487.65 breakout level with volume and maintain turnover activity above $61.68 million, driving P/S valuations to move into an expansion range. The variable to watch is whether cloud business revenue growth matches the scale of capital expenditure. If high turnover exhausts and quickly falls below support levels, the upward structure will fail.
The downward scenario is triggered by rising macro interest rates squeezing high valuation multiples, or AI input-output ratios falling short of expectations, triggering selling pressure. If the stock price breaks below the previous support platform due to increased volume, the valuation center will shift toward pessimistic expectations; The failure signal is that during the downward phase, selling pressure quickly dries up and strong buying takes place at key support levels.
Structural failure points are defined as more than 30% negative deviations in core financial indicators. If revenue growth or gross margin indicators decline by more than 30%, the 10.9x P/S support logic will completely collapse, and the current price breakout pattern will shift to a high-level distribution structure.
The most important variable to watch over the next 7 days is the confirmation of a pullback at the key $487 level and the continuity of trading volume.
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, Circle is the grand finale, #从降息到加息 the Fed's disagreements are fully #CLARITY法案错过休会窗口Not every altcoin is about to explode—and that's exactly what the market is telling us. 📊
This isn't a broad altseason. It's a selective rotation of capital.
💰 Liquidity is chasing strength, not hype. Projects with growing adoption, strong narratives, and consistent volume are pulling ahead, while many others remain stuck in low-demand ranges.
🔹 Leaders to watch: $BTC $JTO $JELLYJELLY $OPG $BTCSLX $LAB $BSB $ALLO $CHIP
🔸 Momentum fading: $BEAT $EDGE $COAI $TRUMP $RAVE $SPACE $SOPH $IP $AVNT $ZAMA $OFC $PIEVERSE $VIRTUAL $ACU $H $MEGA
👀 Potential movers: $MEME $EDEN $HUMA $ZKP $METIS
Market guide:
🟠 $BTC → Trend leader
🏛️ $ETH → Institutional confidence
⚡ $SOL → High-beta momentum
🤖 $TAO & $WLD → AI narrative
🌡️ $HYPE → Risk sentiment
🐕 $DOGE & $ZEC → Retail activity
The biggest winners are usually identified before they become everyone's favorite trade.
Follow liquidity. Respect price action. Stay patient.
NFA. DYOR. 🚀
#DailyOrbit @OKXOrbit
#BigTechEarningsWatch
#PalantirBeatAndRaise#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
This week's earnings reports have been a series of major tests: AMD and SpaceX were the first to disclose, while Circle made a grand debut. The three reports correspond to three main themes: AI computing power, growth risk appetite, and underlying crypto funds, each with completely different implications for market guidance.
Three key points of focus for the financial report
AMD: A touchstone for AI computing power demand
The market is focusing on data center chip orders and guidance for second-half performance.
The earnings report exceeded expectations, boosting sentiment in the AI industry chain in the short term; If guidance weakens, it will trigger market concerns about slowing computing power demand and suppressing risk assets.
SpaceX: First quarterly report after listing, combined with a countdown to unlocking hundreds of billions
Don't be misled by the single narrative of "holding BTC." Key highlights: Starlink cash flow and xAI capital expenditure pace.
The stock price has been continuously correcting in the previous period, with bulls waiting for signs of improved earnings; Bears worry about continued cash burning, combined with large unlocking pressure from lock-ups.
Key reminder: BTC holdings account for a very small proportion of a company's total market value. Don't simply treat SPCX as a BTC indicator; it's more of a global risk appetite indicator.
Circle (the grand finale, the most crucial part of the crypto world)
AMD and SpaceX influenced sentiment, while Circle directly reflected the vitality of the crypto market.
Focus on tracking USDC circulating supply, reserve earnings, and institutional fund inflows and outflows.
USDC continues to expand = compliant funds remain on standby off-exchange; The continued shrinkage of circulating supply indicates a retreat of incremental funds and pressure on the mid-term market.
Two layers of market transmission logic
1. The first two U.S. stock earnings reports set the short-term risk appetite tone
The AI sector's sentiment is warming up, indirectly boosting computing power and DePIN cryptocurrencies; Tech stocks have collectively weakened, making it difficult for mainstream coins to break out of independent bullish rallies.
2. Circle is a watershed indicator
U.S. stock sentiment can only influence short-term fluctuations; stablecoin size represents the true liquidity of the crypto market.
Even if US earnings reports are generally positive, if Circle data weakens, it will only support a short-term rebound and will be difficult to trigger a sustained trend.
Personal independent viewpoint
Don't bet on one-sided in advance; wait for the expected gap to materialize.
Currently, the market is engaged in a stock game of stock; good news is easy to cash in and pullback, while negative news is magnified.
Operate in two steps:
Let's first look at AMD + SpaceX to set the mood; Finally, based on Circle's financial report data, the subsequent market level is judged.
Practical reminder: Volatility at earnings reports will be amplified, reduce heavy positions and gambling, and prepare anti-insertion contingency plans. The main theme remains macro interest rates, and earnings reports can only change the short-term rhythm and are unlikely to reverse the overall trend.#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, Circle closes the showdown. After the first major test of earnings week, Palantir delivered a 93% revenue growth rate and sharply raised its full-year guidance, with post-hours revenue surging 12%! 📈 This once again confirms the iron rule of U.S. earnings season: "Quarterly numbers are just entry tickets; guidance sets prices." The first match proved the rule with a 12% increase; who can replicate the remaining three games? Tonight, AMD, SpaceX, and tomorrow morning's Circle will face their ultimate stress test! 👇 1️⃣ $AMD (August 4, US stock market after-hours) — The battle for the quality of the AI hardware chain ● Market expectations: Revenue of $11.3 billion (YoY +47%). ● Historical Fundamentals: Q1 2026 revenue of 10.253 billion yuan (+37.85%), full-year 2025 revenue of 34.639 billion yuan (+34.34%), showing strong growth momentum. ● Core Exam Questions: Meeting revenue targets is just the foundation; the real winner lies in gross margin and AI chip demand. ● Business Details: Data center net revenue is expected to reach $16.6 billion (+32%) by 2025, mainly driven by strong demand for fifth-generation EPYC processors and Instinct MI350 series GPUs. The market fears price wars most to grab market share; if gross margins can stabilize or even exceed expectations, then it will truly be "better than expected." 📊 In-depth scenario simulation: ● #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved
MicroStrategy has sold Bitcoin once again, and this time the market is beginning to re-examine whether this company, once known as a giant in Bitcoin belief, is undergoing changes.
According to the latest disclosures, Strategy sold 1,638 $BTC between July 27 and August 2, cashing out about $104.7 million, with an average transaction price of $63,957, lower than the previous holding cost of $75,419. Currently, the position has dropped to 842138 coins.
At this point, you might wonder if Strategy is starting to waver?
But I think it's more like a long-term investor adjusting their sails in a storm, rather than just abandoning the ship and fleeing.
In past bull markets, Strategy was like a continuously rising BTC castle, continuously buying Bitcoin through financing and issuing shares, aiming to become the largest publicly traded BTC holding institution in the market. But the taller the castle, the higher the maintenance cost.
A fixed 12% dividend on preferred stock, like the daily guard fees a castle must pay out, regardless of market conditions, must be paid on time.
So this time selling coins was more like taking part of the stored grain from the warehouse to keep the castle running normally, rather than tearing down the entire castle.
Notably, the volume of this sale was significantly smaller than the 3,588 BTC sold in early July, and there was a four-week pause after selling. If Strategy really starts to bearish on Bitcoin, logically it should be a continuous reduction rather than a small-scale adjustment of capital structure.
Additionally, the market should pay more attention to its proposed repurchase condition: the price of its preferred shares returning to near the issue price.
Behind this lies the core of Strategy's business model—it's not just about holding BTC, but about amplifying BTC exposure through capital markets.
Simply put, it used to be like a machine operating on external funds; as long as the market was willing to offer it a higher valuation, it could continuously raise funds to buy coins. But when preferred stock prices fall below expectations, the gears of the machine start to resist.
So the question isn't whether Strategy still trusts BTC, but whether this machine can continue to run at high speed.
My view is that in the short term, this will put some pressure on the market, as a long-term buyer starts selling and undermines investor confidence.
But from a long-term perspective, 1,638 BTC has limited impact on the 840,000 holdings, more like a capital movement than a strategic shift.
What truly needs to be wary is that if BTC enters prolonged volatility in the future, Strategy's financing costs keep rising, and the market doesn't offer it a new premium, its former "unlimited coin buying model" may hit a bottleneck.
The above is just my personal opinion!With the volatile market continuously exhausting, many retail investors entering new contracts relying on leveraged games have been eliminated, and short-term floating speculative chips have significantly decreased;
But this is just speculative forces clearing out; it does not mean all chips are being sold in panic. The coolness can last a very long time, but there is still a tail risk of a second dip caused by a macroeconomic recession.
We can recognize that the chip structure is gradually improving, but opening long or short positions still insists on waiting for trend confirmation, rather than relying on emotional perception to bet on the bottom.Thankful for this year's bear market
Thankful to the market for giving me the opportunity
Also thankful for the bit of courage I had at that time
Daring to open a 100x short position when everyone was afraid of a rebound rally
Even more thankful that I wasn't shaken out by the interim rebounds along the way
——
This $BTC short position
Entry price: 74280.9
Leverage: 100x
Full position mode
Margin: 1289.2U
Position size: 128921.39 USDT
Current mark price: 63869.7
Current profit: +21015.02U
Return rate: +1401.59%
Maintenance margin rate: 4992.53%
To be honest
When I saw these numbers
My first reaction was not excitement
But rather a bit of fear
Because the truly difficult part of this trade
Was never opening the position
But whether I could keep believing in my judgment after opening it
——
At the time I opened this short
Almost everyone in the market was bullish
Various new high expectations
Talk of the second phase of the bull market
Everyone was discussing how much higher it could go
But I started feeling something was off
The higher the price surged
The crazier the market sentiment
The more capital concentrated on chasing the rally
Often
The most dangerous time in the market
Is not when no one is bullish
But when everyone is convinced it will definitely go up
——
Holding through this journey
Was actually not easy at all
$BTC had rebounds in between
Every rally
Someone would tell you
The shorts are over
The bull market has restarted
There were even times
I doubted if I was wrong about the direction
But looking back
The real big profits
Are never made by timing the exact moment
But by whether you can persist through the volatility
——
The biggest regret this time
Is that the position size was too small 😭
100x sounds crazy
But judging by the current profit
If the position had been bigger back then
Maybe I could have really rested this year
No need to watch the market every day
No need to wake up at midnight to check prices
No need to let a single candlestick affect my mood
Another regret
Is holding for too long
There were actually chances to take more profit along the way
At the peak
I might have missed out on about 30000U more
If I had executed the plan earlier
The result could have been even better
But trading has no "ifs"
Being alive and holding until now
Is already the best outcome
——
Looking at $BTC now
The short-term is still oscillating around 63000-64000
After this drop
Market sentiment has clearly calmed down a lot
For the bulls to restart
They first need to break through resistance near 65000
If it can't hold above
The trapped positions and profit-taking above will still create pressure
On the downside, key support is around 62000
If broken
The market may continue to seek support near 60000
——
$ETH's recent movement is also interesting
It has been fluctuating repeatedly between 1800-1900
Regulatory expectations
Institutional funds
Macro sentiment
All these factors influence the price
But after this round
I increasingly feel
The market will never follow the majority's script
Good news doesn't necessarily mean a rise
Bad news doesn't necessarily mean a fall
In the end, the deciding factors
Are still capital and sentiment
——
Looking at $BEAT
After unlocking, it didn't experience the expected big drop
Instead, it rallied
Showing that the AI narrative still has capital attention
But this kind of high-volatility asset
Makes people crazy when it rises
And doesn't give chances when it falls
The market always rewards patience
But also punishes greed
——
So this time
I'm preparing to close the position
No longer fantasizing about catching the last leg
Nor wanting to risk giving back profits already in hand for a bit more
Being able to hold a 100x leverage position until now
Is already luck
Also execution
And a lesson the bear market has given me
——
Thankful for this year's bear market
It made me re-recognize risk
Thankful for this 100x leverage
It taught me what it means to respect the market
Thankful for my patience
For not giving up at the hardest times
21015U profit
Is not the end
But enough to make me remember this trade
This time
No greed
Ready to take profits safely 😭
Next opportunity
I'll slowly wait for the market to give me a chance
#From rate cuts to hikes, Fed divisions fully revealed
#Earnings observer: AMD and SpaceX about to report, Circle last act
#MSTR sells another 1638 bitcoins, scale halved #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
This week, Wall Street welcomed one of the most important earnings windows of the year, with tech giants such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, AMD, and Palantir successively releasing their earnings. For the crypto world, this is not only a major event in the US stock market, but could also become a barometer for the short-term trends of BTC and ETH. The performance of tech companies, AI capital expenditure, and future growth expectations will directly affect the risk appetite of global capital.
In recent years, Bitcoin has been increasingly influenced by institutional capital. With the development of spot ETFs, more and more funds are managing BTC, tech stocks, and gold in the same portfolio. Therefore, when tech giants deliver impressive earnings reports, institutions are more willing to increase risk asset allocation, and BTC and ETH often attract capital favor; Conversely, if the earnings report falls short of expectations and risk-averse sentiment intensifies, the crypto market usually comes under pressure as well.
In this earnings season, the market's main concern is not whether companies are simply "exceeding expectations," but whether AI investment continues to expand. If companies like Microsoft and Amazon continue to increase investments in cloud computing and AI infrastructure, it means the AI industry remains very prosperous, and the logic of growth stocks remains unchanged. This not only benefits Nasdaq but also increases capital willingness to allocate BTC, ETH, and AI sector tokens.
However, traders should also be wary of another scenario. If companies start cutting capital expenditures or lowering full-year performance guidance, even if quarterly earnings are good, the market may choose to take profits. For the crypto community, this means a decline in risk appetite and potential further amplification of short-term volatility.
Therefore, what truly determines BTC's direction is not the stock price fluctuations of any particular company, but whether the tech giant's earnings continue to prove that global AI investment and corporate earnings are still growing. If Wall Street continues to embrace tech growth stocks, BTC is expected to receive incremental capital support; If the market begins to question the growth logic, the crypto market may also enter a period of volatility and consolidation in the short term.
Do you think this round of tech giants' earnings reports will drive BTC to new highs, or will it become the trigger for profit-taking in the market? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.The three major U.S. stock indices all opened higher: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.52%, the S&P 500 gained 0.33%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%. Although the increase isn't astonishing, it at least kicked off the first full trading week of August. However, behind the apparent broad rally, a dramatic battle is unfolding between sectors. AI sector adds another fire, Alibaba leads the rise in tech stocks. Alibaba's US stock opened up 3.5%, making it the brightest performing large-cap tech stock during today's opening session. The direct catalyst driving the stock price is the company's recently released Qianwen 3.8-MAX AI model. In the current market environment, any good news related to AI can quickly be converted into positive feedback for stock prices. This also shows that capital's enthusiasm for the AI main theme has not faded; as long as there are new stories and developments, they are willing to pay for them. $MU SpaceX pulls back slightly, commercial space enthusiasm temporarily cools down. Meanwhile, SpaceX opened down 3%. This highly regarded commercial aerospace giant had previously experienced consecutive gains, and today's pullback is more like a normal release of short-term profit-taking, with no negative fundamental signals yet visible. Storage chips collectively flopped, Micron and SanDisk both fell 5%. The biggest "thunderstorm" on the market today was the memory chip sector. Micron Technology and SanDisk opened both down 5%, with a drop significantly larger than the broader market, making semiconductor stock investors feel uneasy. Although there is no direct industry negative news on the surface, such a synchronized decline usually indicates the market is trading something#From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's divisions fully exposed
The current infighting within the Federal Reserve isn't about raising rates more or less; the direction itself is conflicted.
The hawks say inflation won't come down for five years, with Logan directly calling for "slightly higher" rates. The doves focus on employment, with Waller warning that jobs may deteriorate faster, challenging a September rate cut. Chair Wash is trying to mediate, blaming everything on the CPI—essentially saying: don't guess my moves, watch the data.
Currently, Waller is the only one openly calling for a rate cut in the committee, yet the futures market is still betting unilaterally on cuts. This divergence is extreme. If CPI leans hawkish, bulls get trampled; if CPI leans dovish, don't rush to buy—Wash said "decisive action when necessary," what if he decides inflation still needs tightening?
Regarding BTC:
Short-term volatility will explode, with repeated swings up and down; a double squeeze of longs and shorts is highly probable, so high leverage should be ready to get flushed out.
In the medium term, a real rate cut → the market first trades recession then liquidity easing, BTC will be under pressure first then recover. Rate hikes → liquidity tightens again, altcoin season continues to be delayed.
How to handle it:
Cut leverage down to ankle level; above 10x is suicidal.
Keep 40% U in spot, wait for the second hourly candle after CPI lands to confirm direction before moving, don't rush the first spike.
Buy out-of-the-money put options as insurance.
Stop opening new positions 6 hours before CPI release.
Key anchors:
Two CPI data points determine direction. Core CPI exceeding expectations → hawks win, BTC retests 62000-62500 range, breaking below targets the 60000 psychological level. Moderate → rate cut expectations rebound, BTC rallies to 68800-70000 resistance zone, but don't chase, wait for a pullback to confirm before entering.
Watch the 66000-66100 area intraday; this is the week's bull-bear dividing line. Hourly close above means bears avoid shorting; breaking below means follow short trend with target 64500.
On-chain watch miner shutdown price, currently about 58000-59000, this is the hard bottom. If it really hits this area, buy spot blindly in batches, don't hesitate.
With your own currency policy fighting itself, what makes you think you can bet on the right side?
Look at your accounts less and sleep more these two weeks; wait for the boot to drop before picking it up, better than being cannon fodder.
$ETH $SOL $BTC #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
Recently, the disagreement among Federal Reserve officials on interest rate policy has become increasingly apparent. Some believe interest rates should be cut quickly to avoid economic slowdown; Others insist that inflation risks have not been completely eliminated and hope to maintain high interest rates for a longer period. When this disagreement becomes public, it means market uncertainty is rising.
Many people think that disagreements among officials are normal, but for financial markets, the biggest fear is not interest rate hikes or cuts, but uncertainty.
When the market cannot predict the Fed's next move, institutional funds often choose to reduce risk and reduce allocations to highly volatile assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the recent frequent "rise one day, fall one day" fluctuating market for BTC and ETH is largely due to the market's continuous revision of rate cut expectations.
For the crypto world, Federal Reserve policy determines global liquidity. If the market believes rate cuts are approaching, funds usually start positioning in risk assets like BTC and ETH in advance; But if officials keep sending hawkish signals and the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, funds may temporarily flow into safe-haven assets, putting pressure on the crypto market.
It is worth noting that a widening divergence is not necessarily negative. Historically, when opinions within the Fed begin to diverge significantly, it often signals that policy is approaching a critical turning point. Although short-term volatility will increase, once the market confirms future policy direction—whether cutting rates or keeping rates unchanged—uncertainty will actually decrease, making it easier for funds to flow back into risk assets.
For traders, what truly needs to be watched now is not which official's speech is more hawkish, but the market's shift in the probability of rate cuts at the September and November meetings, as well as whether the flow of funds for the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and Bitcoin ETFs will change simultaneously.
Therefore, the biggest impact of the Fed's "public divergence" is not the immediate decision on BTC's price fluctuations, but rather the market entering a phase of anticipation tug-of-war. Until the direction is truly clear, the crypto market is very likely to remain highly volatile. Controlling positions and avoiding blind chasing gains and cutting losses is more important than predicting every speech.On the chessboard, a "rook" worth $160 million crossed its own boundary without delivering a check—it didn't capture any pieces, yet it froze the entire atmosphere of the midgame.
On August 2, this "rook" entered Crypto.com's grid in two moves. Along with the previously moved pieces, a total of 7,281 have been withdrawn from the original 11,542, while the remaining 4,261 pieces perfectly match the 4,260.73 collateral units listed in the financial statement. Think it's a coincidence? A grandmaster tells you: there are no coincidences on the chessboard, only calculated manifestations.
When ordinary people see a transfer, they see a sale; when I see this game, I see an "exchange"—not an exchange of pieces for pieces, but an exchange of uncertainty for certainty. These 4,261 pieces left behind are their safe fortress on the rear wing baseline, used to hedge against the opponent's unknown opening preparations. The 7,281 pieces sent out earlier might be "pawn sacrifices" or "piece exchanges and maneuvers"—it depends on whether new lines of attack will light up later.
Some estimate that this series of moves resulted in about $318 million in book losses. But in my eyes, book losses are transitional scores under "time pressure." True masters use a small tangible gain in the midgame to secure a huge positional advantage, especially when the opponent's king's position is exposed. Why keep a quantity almost equal to the collateral? Because this is a "forced node"—they ensure that at least one pawn holds the basic square in the endgame.
Crypto.com, as a custodial third party, is like the "recorder" on the chessboard, who can be a trusted arbiter or just a temporary chess table placing pieces. No one knows if these sent-out pieces have left the game or will reappear on the board in another form at some future point. When information is incomplete, masters only look at the flow of energy: the first mover is actively compressing uncertainty, turning the entire game into a controllable endgame.
You ask if I am bullish or bearish? Before the opponent announces the next move, any conclusion is an amateur's blunder. I just want to say, when one side's number of pieces perfectly matches the collateral squares, it means their strategic intent has already fallen into a clear framework—the rest is just the speed of execution. Just like after castling, a "central breakthrough" move might suddenly come or might never come.
The most dangerous pieces on the board are not those already moved, but those calculated but not yet played—when everyone's eyes focus on the rerouted rook's path, the real check might already be approaching from the other side. #trumpmedia2628btcFundamental Research Report $DOT / Polkadot (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
To get straight to the point: Polkadot ($DOT) has an overall score of 57/100, with a rating that narrative is more important than implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Polkadot (token $DOT), public chain/L1 sector. Focusing on parallel chain cross-chain ecosystems. Benchmarking against ATOM and ETH. Traditional collaboration between enterprises relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, which causes gas surges, TPS constraints, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents during high concurrency. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Let's look together with peers (unified standards, no random cross-sector comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, Polkadot is $3.00B, ATOM is undisclosed, ETH is undisclosed. For FDV, Polkadot $4.20B, ATOM undisclosed, ETH undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Polkadot is $2.00M, ATOM is undisclosed, ETH is undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Polkadot has not disclosed this, ATOM has not disclosed, ETH has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. Finally, a qualitative note: solid fundamentals (score 57/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risks to watch for: short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version release. The above judgment is based on publicly available data and does not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions need to be revised when key indicators deviate significantly.
Once the fundamentals are dismantled, how the market moves is another matter.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit#美日确认联合购汇
First time in 15 years!
The US and Japan have officially confirmed that they have joined forces to intervene in the foreign exchange market, jointly buying yen and selling US dollars to prevent the yen from falling to a nearly 40-year low. This move quickly shocked the market.
Event review
Japan's Ministry of Finance and the U.S. Treasury jointly confirmed that both parties implemented a joint foreign exchange purchase operation on July 31 Eastern Time. The Japanese side made it clear that this move was to address the yen's recent "excessive volatility and disorderly movement."
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent also spoke out, stating that this coordinated intervention has effectively curbed the disorderly fluctuations of the yen, and emphasized that if necessary, both sides will not hesitate to take joint action again.
After the announcement, the yen rebounded significantly against the US dollar, briefly breaking through a key level, and market shorting sentiment for the yen was noticeably suppressed.
Why is this intervention unusual?
Historically, joint intervention by major powers in the foreign exchange market has been rare.
The last truly coordinated action between the U.S. and Japan dates back to after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Moreover, joint interventions specifically targeting "buying yen" have not occurred again for the first time in nearly 28 years. The reason this operation has attracted so much attention lies in three main points:
1. The yen's depreciation is nearing its limit
Previously, the yen once approached 164 yen per dollar, hitting a 40-year low, significantly increasing imported inflationary pressure.
2. A rare alignment of interests between the US and Japan
Japan hopes to curb the rapid depreciation of its currency, while the U.S. does not want to see the dollar become overly strong, affecting its own exports and global financial stability. Both sides have found a basis for joint action.
3. The signal is more meaningful than the scale itself
Intervention can directly change short-term exchange rates, but more importantly, it sends a message to the market—the authorities will not allow speculative depreciation to spiral out of control.
What does this mean for the market?
The confirmation of joint foreign exchange purchases has boosted the yen in the short term and prompted the forex market to reprice intervention risks. For investors, this brings at least a few changes:
The risk of one-sided short selling of the yen has risen significantly
Exchange rate fluctuations may be amplified in stages
Japan's domestic inflation and monetary policy expectations may adjust accordingly
Global capital flows and risk asset sentiment will also be indirectly affected
It should be noted that while intervention can provide emergency relief, it is difficult to change long-term trends on its own. Whether the yen can ultimately stabilize still depends on Japan's fiscal policy, monetary policy, and the actual direction of the US-Japan interest rate differential.
Against the backdrop of intensifying global exchange rate fluctuations, the willingness of major powers to act in coordination sends a strong signal: disorderly devaluation has crossed the bottom line of tolerance for both sides. The market always reveres trends and reveres determination.
This time, the US and Japan have put their determination on the surface. Whether there will be further further increases in action is worth continued attention.The four-stage evolution and essence of the yen's "shadow dollar."
1. First Stage: The Dollar Subsidiary Period (1949-1971)
1. Background and Policy: After World War II, under the Bretton Woods system, the fixed exchange rate between the yen and the US dollar was 1:360, and Japan was completely dependent on the dollar system, acting as an "export vassal" of the United States.
2. U.S. Strategic Shift: In the early postwar period, the U.S. planned to dismantle Japan's heavy industry and seek war reparations, but after the dramatic changes in East Asia (the collapse of the Kuomintang regime and tensions on the Korean Peninsula), the Truman administration adjusted its strategy, turning Japan into Asia's "anti-communist stronghold" and the "industrial pillar" of the capitalist camp.
3. Dodge Route: In 1949, American banker Joseph Dodge introduced the "Dodge Route," setting highly competitive fixed exchange rates for Japan and stimulating explosive growth in Japanese manufacturing through Korean War orders, helping Japan achieve a "postwar economic miracle."
II. Second Stage: Forced Appreciation and Financial Liberalization (1971-1989)
1. Trade pressure: In the late 1960s, Japanese textiles, automobiles, and electronics were heavily dumped to the US at low exchange rates, resulting in a severe trade deficit. The US regarded its support policies for Japan as "unfair competition."
2. System and Agreements: In 1971, the Bretton Woods system collapsed, ending the fixed exchange rate system and ushering the yen into a floating exchange rate era; In 1985, the US and Japan signed the Plaza Accord, forcing the yen to appreciate sharply, with the exchange rate rising from 1:240-250 to 1:120 or even higher.
3. Financial liberalization: To counter export blows, Japan introduced a loose monetary policy, opening its capital account and removing foreign exchange controls. The yen was free to enter and exit international markets, laying the institutional foundation for becoming a global "lending currency" and establishing a "shadow foundation."
3. Third Stage: Bubble Burst and the Birth of Arbitrage Trading (1990-2000)
1. Bubble burst: In the early 1990s, Japan's asset bubble burst, causing the economy to fall into long-term deflation. In 1999, the Bank of Japan introduced a "zero interest rate" policy and pioneered quantitative easing.
2. Rise of arbitrage trading: Coinciding with the peak of financial globalization, Wall Street discovered an arbitrage opportunity where borrowing yen yielded almost zero interest. A large amount of international capital entered the yen at low cost, then sold yen to exchange for dollars, going long in high-yield assets globally. The yen officially became a "stepping stone for leverage" against the dollar.
4. Phase Four: Deep Binding (2013-2023)
1. Extremely Loose Policy: After Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda took office, he launched an "extremely loose monetary policy," printing about 80 trillion yen annually in government bonds and ETFs, pushing the 10-year Japanese bond yield to nearly zero.
2. Widening US-Japan interest rate gap: To curb inflation, the Fed raised rates sharply to 5.25%-5.5% in July 2023, while Japan maintained a long-term -0.1% rate until ending negative rates in March 2024. The US-Japan overnight policy spread widened from around 0% to 5.5%, and the 10-year Treasury yield spread reached 4.5%.
3. Scale of arbitrage transactions: Global arbitrage transactions involving borrowing yen and buying US dollar assets range from $1 to $4 trillion, covering cross-border bank lending, derivatives markets, and outbound direct investment, causing the yen to depreciate to its lowest point in decades.
5. The Core Role of the Yen: The "Auxiliary Reservoir" and "Hedging Valve" of the Dollar System
1. Secondary reservoir (liquidity supplement): During the Fed's rate hikes and balance sheet reduction in 2022-2023, which drained global dollar liquidity, the Bank of Japan maintained its YCC policy by printing money to buy government bonds and ETFs, releasing low-cost yen funds. Through arbitrage trading, these were converted into dollars flowing into US stocks, Treasuries, and tech stocks, hedged against liquidity tightening caused by the Fed's balance sheet reduction, supporting continued gains in US stocks during rate hike cycles.
2. Hedging regulator: When market risk appetite is high, investors borrow large amounts of yen to buy dollar assets, pushing the yen down and driving up global asset prices; Low market risk appetite or a narrowing US-Japan interest rate spread forced arbitrage trades to close positions, investors selling US dollar assets and buying back yen to repay debts. For example, around August 2024, the yen-to-dollar exchange rate fell from 161 to 141 within a few days, triggering a global liquidity run. The Nikkei 225 plunged 12.4% in a single day, marking its largest single-day drop since the 1987 "Black Monday," causing sharp volatility in U.S. tech stocks and global high-risk assets.
6. Summary: The Essence and Impact of the Yen
1. Capital Dimension: The yen is an important "low-interest leverage" in the global financial system. The underlying source of funds and leverage for large amounts of liquid dollar assets is the high-leverage yen, which has become the "liquidity amplifier" for the dollar in global capital expansion.
2. Asset and geopolitical dimensions: Japan is the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasuries (holding $1.14 trillion) and the largest overseas "advance borrower." By accumulating dollars through trade surpluses and then buying U.S. Treasuries, Japan's "excess savings" are essentially paying for the U.S. fiscal deficit and the dollar's global hegemony.
3. Policy Dimension: The Bank of Japan is the "deputy agent" of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and is heavily constrained by Fed policy. If Japan does not follow the Fed's interest rate hikes, the yen will depreciate sharply; If Japan raises rates on its own without communicating with the U.S., it will trigger global arbitrage capital inflows and burst domestic and U.S. asset bubbles. During the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, the Bank of Japan cooperated with the Federal Reserve in providing "liquidity swaps," acting as the Fed's "subordinated liquidity provider" in Asian and global financial markets.
4. Trade and settlement dimension: The yen ranks fourth in the international settlement system, but accounts for only 3%-4%. Japanese companies' overseas industrial chains and investments are mainly settled in US dollars. The foreign exchange earned from overseas investments is not largely converted into demand for the yen, but instead remains in the dollar circulation system. The yen's overseas expansion ultimately becomes part of dollar liquidity.
For a long time, the U.S. has made the yen an "important lever" and a "capital repatriation hub" within the dollar system. Although the yen appears independent, in reality, in the eyes of global hedge funds, multinational capital, and consortia, it is more like a "low-interest dollar financing tool" priced in yen. Whether the U.S. manipulates or supports the yen, it is essentially supporting the dollar and the entire dollar system.Locked. But never trapped.
That is the sentence that stuck with me the most after reading about Babylon's Trustless Bitcoin Vaults.
In most current PoS networks, after staking, users usually have to wait 14–21 days before they can withdraw their assets. Babylon reduces that time to just 2 days. It may sound like just an experience improvement, but to me, this is a huge change in capital efficiency.
Bitcoin remains locked to secure the network, but it is not stuck. No need to wrap, no need to bridge, and still maintaining full Self-Custody rights. This means Bitcoin can return to circulation faster when users need it, instead of lying idle for weeks.
That is also why I don't see Babylon as just a staking protocol. I see it as an infrastructure layer turning Bitcoin into Native Bitcoin Collateral.
Bitcoin currently has a market cap of over 2,000 billion USD, but most of that capital is still almost entirely outside DeFi. History has shown what happens when a large asset starts being used as collateral. The day Aave made ETH collateral, Ethereum not only gained another application, but the entire DeFi ecosystem entered a new phase.
If one day lending protocols can use Native Bitcoin Collateral instead of just Wrapped BTC, I think Babylon will no longer be seen as a staking protocol. It will become the infrastructure layer connecting over 2,000 billion USD of Bitcoin with the DeFi world. And that is the reason I continue to follow this project.Arweave promised "forever," but the market currently only gives it a "maybe" valuation.
$AR is a technically interesting and narratively beautiful perpetual storage project, but currently it resembles a high-spec, low-land, long-neglected infrastructure token — the story has been told for years, and true mass adoption has yet to arrive.
Its core selling point is "one-time payment, permanent storage," supported by the endowment (donation pool) model. This model heavily relies on long-term and sustained declines in storage costs (Kryder's Law). If hardware cost declines slow or stagnate, donation pools may not be enough to incentivize miners, and the promise of permanent storage becomes empty talk. This is the biggest structural risk of the project.
NFT metadata and artworks were once the main sources of income, but after the NFT craze faded, demand shrank significantly. There are only a few application scenarios willing to pay a premium for "permanent," and many projects prefer cheaper solutions like Filecoin, IPFS, or centralized cloud storage. The AO compute layer is trying to expand its uses, but whether value can effectively flow back to $AR remains highly uncertain.
The storage sector is crowded (Filecoin, Sia, Walrus, various DA layers). Arweave's "permanent" differentiation is not always a decisive advantage in developers' choices, especially in terms of cost and ease of use.
In February 2026, there was a block outage lasting over 24 hours, exposing the network's lack of maturity. The Gateway access layer still faces centralization risks; data can be "stored" but "accessible" is not always guaranteed.
Permanent, non-deletable storage is naturally easy to use for storing sensitive or illegal content, which has attracted regulatory and AML concerns. Once policies tighten, it could directly impact the network and tokens.
The current price is around $1.8, with a market cap of only $110–$120 million, down more than 97% from its all-time high (about $90). Circulating supply is nearing its limit, but real paid storage demand has yet to form a strong token value capture closed loop.
$ETH $BTC This time, the Fed has truly torn apart its pretense; previously it was being covered, but now the conflict is openly exposed.
After the quiet period ended, two completely opposite public claims appeared within the committee. And it's not about the "add or subtract" gap, but the fundamental opposition of "whether to raise rates or cut rates."
The interest rate hike camp is very firm.
Logan believes "interest rates should be slightly higher," while Hamack's reasoning is more direct—inflation has been above 2% for over five years, and current policy restrictions are simply insufficient. Kashkari also sided with them, supporting a 25 basis point rate hike. In other words, these people feel inflation hasn't been suppressed yet and can't let go.
But on the other hand, the rate-cutting camp is also desperately trying to pull it back.
Board member Waller directly brought up the job market, warning that employment could deteriorate faster, and made it clear that, based on the information he has now, he supports a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting. Moreover, it is said that he is the only person in the committee who has publicly stated that interest rate cuts will be made.
This is quite awkward. The Fed's current dual mission is inflation and employment, but these two targets now send completely opposite signals, which is the essence of this divergence.
The middleman, Chairman Powell, was quite steady and didn't take any sides. He said the 2% inflation target would not be moved and that decisive action would be taken if necessary, but refused to provide clear forward-looking guidance. Basically, I said: Don't guess what I'm thinking. How September will go depends on how the two CPI data sets before the meeting are actually reported.
The most interesting thing is the market's reaction.
Currently, BTC Bitcoin is currently priced at 63,800, ETH at 1,868, and SOL at 74
Currently, the futures market is clearly betting on rate hikes, with no sign of any expectation of rate cuts. In other words, while the committee members argue over the matter, the players who bet with real money simply don't believe the Fed will switch to cutting rates.
On one side is the committee's internal internal division, on the other is the market's unilateral bet on rate hikes. The space left between these two sides is entirely left to the two CPI reports to be released. This time, the authority to decide CPI data is greater than ever before.
So in the coming month, it will be a matter of who the inflation figures actually support. If CPI remains high, the confidence on the rate hike side will be stronger; If the CPI falls more than expected, then the worsening job market combined with calls for rate cuts may force the market to reprice. Anyway, the market won't be peaceful during this period. Whether you're playing stocks or cryptocurrencies, focus more on macro data and bet less on direction. The tug-of-war between these two camps could bring you a dramatic twist at any moment.
#从降息到加息, the Fed's divide is fully $ETH $ETH $SOL Sandi Falls is just around the corner!! Urgent analysis of current short-selling strategies!
I'm Ci Ge, short position at 1324.87, current price 1288, floating profit of 36 points. The order is still profitable, but the profits have shrunk significantly.
Let's first look at the current market
On August 3, SanDisk closed at $1,288.03, up 6.03% that day, with a large intraday swing, with a low of 1,121.33 and a high of 1,316.44. On the daily chart, prices are still being pushed below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with short-term bears holding the advantage. The first short-term resistance is between $1360 and $1410, and the medium-term strong resistance is between $1560 and $1610. On the support side, 1180 to 1200 is the current dividing line between strength and weakness, while 998 is the trend lifeline.
Reason for holding a short position at 1324.87
Technically, 1288 is near the lower edge of the short-term resistance zone. The rebound quality is an oversold recovery, not a trend reversal. The moving average system is in a bearish alignment, with prices repeatedly contesting near the EMA10 but unable to effectively break above it.
On the news front, on August 4, SanDisk and SK Hynix jointly released the first HBF standard, which short-term stimulated a rebound in stock prices. However, technological advantages do not necessarily mean a fundamental reversal; the commercialization of HBF will still take time.
Earnings window: Q4 earnings will be released after market close on August 5, with very high market expectations (EPS $34.67, revenue $8.42 billion). High expectations mean extremely low margin for error. Once the financial report only meets expectations rather than exceeds them, the scenario of "buying expectations and selling facts" plays out.
The core reason for short selling
First, valuation bubbles. The 52-week low was $40.53, the high was $2,354.39, an increase of over 5700%. The TTM price-to-earnings ratio is over 42 times, which is considered a bubble in a strong cyclical industry.
Second, the risk of a cyclical peak. Citron was already short at the beginning of the year, with the core logic being that the market will be strong in cyclical NAND companies, pricing AI core assets, which is a clear mismatch.
Third, the competitive landscape has deteriorated. Samsung is entering the high-end SSD market with SanDisk cores with its most advanced chips. Forward supply-side pressure is accumulating.
Fourth, the chips are crowded. The turnover rate has long remained above 14%, making it a high-level competitive stock.
If you don't have short positions, where can you go short?
Do not pursue emptiness. When it rebounds to the 1300 to 1320 range, near the lower edge of the short-term resistance zone, observe if the 1-hour chart shows signs of shrinking volume and stagnation. Once the signal is confirmed, short entry. Stop loss above 1360, first target 1180 to 1200, second target 1120. Position control within 10% of total capital, with leverage not exceeding 3x.
If the price drops below 1250 with increased volume, you can take a light position to chase short positions, set a stop loss at 1280, and target 1180 to 1200.
How to handle short orders at 1324.87
Move the stop-loss up to 1320 to ensure that even if it is knocked out, profits remain. Take profit is divided into two batches: the first batch is 1200 to 1220, half even; The second batch of 1120 was completely flat. The price is fluctuating around 1288; if it doesn't break 1320, keep buying. Volume increased above 1320 and it held firm, cutting positions by half to protect profits. If it falls below 1250, the rebound is over. Add short positions, and set the overall stop loss at 1300.
Short selling profits from trending profits, while drawdowns are an inevitable cost of holding positions.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. #韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成, volatility narrowed by #SPCX首份财报将公布, $100 billion unlock imminent, #折旧年限延至25年 Microsoft lowered its capital expenditure guidance by $BTC $ETH $SNDK The Fed split becoming public changes the calculus. Internal dissent rarely stays tidy, and when it surfaces this visibly, the next rate decision carries more two-way risk than the base case assumes. Markets are pricing a soft landing. That confidence may be slightly premature.
Palantir's 93% revenue print and the after-hours pop confirm that AI infrastructure spending is still being treated as a secular story, not a cyclical one. The problem is that repricing for disappointment, when it comes, tends to be swift. BTC holding near $64K through all of this reads as resilience. The ETH flatline on a risk-on day is worth noting separately.
DYOR.
#OKXOrbitStrategy, the world's largest Bitcoin reserve company, sold 1,638 Bitcoins last week to save its preferred shares, and also sold its own common shares to raise more cash.
In the past, the company continuously issued preferred shares pegged at $100 at an annualized rate of 12%, raising funds to purchase Bitcoin, expanding its reserves to 840,000 coins.
However, after its preferred shares fell below $100 in May this year and have yet to return to the official reference price, MicroStrategy changed its previous model of selling shares to buy coins, instead continuously selling Bitcoin and its own common shares to buy back preferred shares, stabilize the stock price, and pay dividends to holders.
So next week we will continue to sell Bitcoin, because the current $MSTR price is still below 100, and at least tens of thousands of Bitcoins will need to be sold to get back above 100
$BTC #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
The first session of earnings week tested the logic of "guided pricing," while the remaining three sessions broke down the core highlights
I believe the essence of earnings week games has shifted from "earnings deliveries" to "expectation management." Palantir's 12% post-hours gain is not simply due to 93% revenue growth, but rather the market's real validation of the rule that "quarterly numbers are just entry tickets and guidelines are priced."
The judgment is straightforward: Palantir's move to raise its full-year guidance is more convincing than the 93% growth rate this quarter—as the AI narrative becomes increasingly differentiated, the market is more willing to pay a premium for "deterministic growth" rather than for "past highlights." This logic runs throughout the earnings week, and the preview data for the remaining three games hides even more critical strategic points.
AMD will deliver its results after the market on August 4, expecting revenue of 11.3 billion, a 47% year-on-year increase. This is just the basic question; the real winner lies in gross margin and the quality of AI chip demand: if gross margin can stay above 50% and MI300 series orders continue to grow, it will prove its AI transformation is not just a "paper boom."
Conversely, if gross margin declines or demand falls short of expectations, even if revenue meets targets, valuation correction may occur. SpaceX released its first earnings report after listing after the market closed the same day. Beyond earnings, unlocking pressure is even more noteworthy: starting August 6, the unlocking window for up to 911.5 million shares will open. Whether Starlink's profitability can offset selling pressure will directly determine the short-term stock price trend—after all, the initial share structure in the early days of listing often affects sentiment more than earnings. Circle's pre-market finale on August 5, with a consensus revenue of about $714 million, was driven by a "seesaw" between USDC circulating supply and short-term interest rates: at the end of July, USDC reserves shrank to $72.06 billion. Can the shrinking volume be offset by interest rates? If short-term interest rates remain high and new growth points emerge in the USDC ecosystem (such as accelerated institutional adoption), revenue may exceed expectations; Conversely, if interest rates fall or liquidity continues to shrink, the stablecoin sector's "easy profit" logic will face a test.
The first match proved the rules with a 12% rate; who can replicate the remaining three games? The key is who can deliver a more unexpected "certainty" in the triple game of "performance + guidance + sentiment." For investors, rather than focusing on revenue figures, it is better to focus on "hidden indicators" like gross margin, unlocking pressure, and interest rate sensitivity—these are the true "pricing anchors" of earnings week.
$XSPCX
@OKX planet The AI era has arrived—do ordinary people still have a chance to turn things around? The answer may be hidden in blockchain
Many people fear AI.
Because they saw:
AI writes articles.
AI will do the design.
AI can program.
AI analyzes the data.
So I started to feel anxious:
"What can ordinary people do in the future?"
But from another perspective:
When the steam engine appeared, the coachman was afraid.
When the internet first appeared, traditional merchants were afraid.
When smartphones appeared, many industries were afraid.
Every technological revolution eliminates some of the old stuff.
At the same time, it will also create new sources of wealth.
In the AI era, the real danger is not ordinary people.
Instead:
People who are unwilling to learn new tools.
The biggest changes in the future may be:
An ordinary person + AI tools may have the productivity of a small team in the past.
An ordinary person can also create content.
You can do business.
It can connect to global markets.
Blockchain may become an important infrastructure in the AI era.
Why?
Because AI requires:
Data value.
Digital identity.
Payment between machines.
Global collaboration.
All of this requires new internet rules.
In the next 10 years, truly valuable projects may not be built on hype.
but a network capable of solving real problems.
BTC stands for Store of Value.
ETH stands for Smart Contract Ecosystem.
SOL pursues high-performance applications.
SUI explores the next generation of user experiences.
OKB connects the trading ecosystem.
Of course, investing is not gambling.
Buying a single coin doesn't change your life.
What truly changes your life is:
Cognitive upgrade.
Ability enhancement.
Long-term accumulation.
The greatest opportunity in the AI era does not belong to the smartest people.
It belongs to those who embrace change earliest.
Looking back five years later:
What you learn today,
It might be where others pull the gap between themselves and you.
What do you think:
Will AI make survival harder for ordinary people?
Or will it create new wealth opportunities?
Let's talk in the comments.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #SUI #OKB
@比特币 @以太坊 @Solana @SuiNetwork @OKX
$SUI $OKB $SOL $BTC $ETH Tonight's combination is quite interesting: AMD stands for computing hardware, SpaceX for commercial aerospace and AI infrastructure applications, and Circle for stablecoins and crypto financial infrastructure. These three lines intersect, covering almost the entire technology and crypto sector. First, AMD's market expectation for Q2 revenue is $7.12 billion, with earnings per share of 0.77. But the only thing that truly determines the market reaction is one thing: guidance for MI series AI chips. If Microsoft and Meta's cloud growth has already signaled its growth, AI training demand hasn't cooled down. What the market wants is how much market share AMD can grab. If it does, its valuation can still hold up; if not, capital will further shift toward Nvidia. Looking at SpaceX, this is the biggest variable tonight. The market expects Q2 revenue to be about 6.93 billion, with adjusted loss per share of about 0.26. Starlink users at Q1 ended at 10.3 million, doubling year-on-year, but ARPU dropped from 86 to 66. What truly ignites the market is whether Starlink can reach 3.82 billion in revenue and 1.42 billion in operating profit At the same time, the AI computing power business is starting to generate revenue. If the call provides credible third-party computing power order guidance, the momentum for short covering will be directly ignited. But if Starlink's profit margin doesn't improve and capital expenditure continues to spiral out of control, unlocking pressure will once again dominate pricing. Finally, let's look at Circle, a company that serves as a barometer of the crypto market. The market expects Q2 revenue to be around $750 to $820 million. The key is changes in USDC circulating supply and stablecoin market share Signs of easing US-Iran tensions have emerged—Trump said negotiations with Iran are ongoing and said the Strait of Hormuz "may reopen tomorrow at the latest."
This news caused international oil prices to plunge sharply, with WTI crude oil dropping more than 7% intraday before closing down about 5.11% at $80.34 per barrel. The drop in oil prices eased market concerns that energy prices could drive up inflation and force interest rates to remain high for an extended period.
If the oil price center continues to decline, the likelihood of a year-end rate cut will further increase, which is positive for crypto.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's divisions fully exposed
Brothers, recently the Fed folks have completely laid their divisions bare! From previously debating how much to cut rates, it has directly turned into some calling for hikes and others for cuts, with directions completely at odds.
Once the quiet period ended, several big shots publicly clashed:
On the rate hike side, Logan directly said rates "should be slightly higher," Harker complained that inflation has been over 2% for more than five years and policy is still not tight enough, and Kashkari also voted for a 25 basis point hike.
On the rate cut side, only Waller stood firm, warning that the labor market might deteriorate faster, clearly supporting a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting, becoming the only one openly calling for a cut.
The dual mandate is now completely conflicted— inflation points to hikes, employment points to cuts. Powell remains the same, not stating a direction, firmly defending the 2% target, saying he will act decisively if necessary, but refusing to give forward guidance; how September goes depends entirely on the two CPI reports before the meeting.
The market side is even more interesting; futures are still clearly betting on hikes, with almost no one buying into cuts. The Fed's internal spectrum has stretched this wide, yet the market is betting one-sidedly, leaving much more room for CPI to decide.
This wave of divisions shows the Fed is really spinning in a data fog. Sticky inflation, soft employment, both sides have reason, and in the end, the numbers will speak. For the crypto world, uncertainty is the breeding ground for volatility. If the next two CPI reports continue to be hot, risk assets including BTC may come under pressure first; if the data cools, rate cut expectations could ignite instantly. In the short term, don't rush to bet on direction, control your positions first, wait for the CPI to land before making moves; opportunities often arise when divisions are at their greatest.#30年期美债, the top or a new beginning?
The 30-year Treasury yield has surged to a nearly 19-year high, and the whole market is debating whether this round of gains will peak and then pull back, or the starting point of a new upward cycle? Many crypto traders think the bond market is far from Bitcoin, but Bi Ge clearly tells everyone: long-term yields are the gravity of global asset pricing and cannot be ignored.
Let's start with the underlying logic: the 30-year term represents the market's long-term expectations for inflation, fiscal, and interest rates over the next decade or so. This round of rising yields is not just due to the Fed's rate hikes, but also by two key drivers: the US continues to expand its fiscal deficit and continues to inject massive amounts of government bonds; The market is concerned about persistent persistent inflation and is unwilling to accept long-term bonds at low prices.
Let me clarify my core view: there is a short-term chance of a temporary peak and pullback, but don't easily judge it as a major top; Whether it can sustain a medium- to long-term rally depends on two key variables.
Let's start with scenario one: the current position is the stage top
Trigger conditions: continued cooling of inflation data, easing of geopolitical conflicts, and a decline in oil prices; The market is trading expectations of an "inflation turning point," long-term bond buying is flowing back, and yields are turning downward.
What does it mean when it comes to the market? With the risk-free rate declining, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin decreases, and funds will flow back into risk assets, creating a rebound window for BTC. This kind of market is a liquidity recovery rebound, suitable for trading on low prices within a range.
Scenario 2: This is just a new starting point, and yields continue to break upward
Trigger conditions: The ongoing Middle East conflict pushes up energy prices, causing inflation to rebound repeatedly; U.S. fiscal bond issuance pressure remains high, and long-term bonds continue to be sold off, creating a negative feedback loop of "deficit expansion → rising yields."
This is a bearish environment we need to be wary of. With a stable risk-free return above 5%, funds will prioritize stable US Treasuries and continuously withdraw from highly volatile crypto assets. Bitcoin's rebound will be continuously suppressed, and each round of rally is prone to cash-out selling pressure, making it difficult to achieve sustained bull markets.
Many retail investors fall into a common misconception: focusing only on the Fed's short-term policies.
Short-term interest rates are dominated by Federal Reserve decisions, but 30-year long-term bonds are more determined by fiscal supply and long-term inflation expectations. Even if the Fed does not raise rates in the short term, as long as the market is pessimistic about the long-term outlook, long-term bond yields can continue to rise. Don't simply rely on old experience to judge the market.
Practical tips from Bige:
At this stage, don't bet directly on long or short bets; focus on two key signals:
First, whether the 30-year yield can hold above a key resistance level; Hold firm, long-term bearish risk assets; Only by surging and pulling back, and maintaining a continuous turnaround, can a window of liquidity improvement be ushered in.
Second, whether the Nasdaq and risk assets are moving in sync with the bond market. If yields continue to rise and US stocks come under pressure simultaneously, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to strengthen on its own.#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
美联储内部的分歧最近彻底摆上台面了，有意思的是，争论的焦点已经不是降不降息，而是方向完全反过来——有人在公开喊加息。
静默期刚过，委员会里两种截然相反的声音就冒了出来。达拉斯联储的洛根直接投了反对票，表态相当坚决，说利率“应当略微更高”。克利夫兰的哈玛克也是加息派，她算了一笔账：通胀高于2%这个目标已经持续超过五年了，眼下的政策限制性根本不够。明尼阿波利斯的卡什卡利同样支持加息25个基点，这几个人凑在一起，声音不算小。
另一边，降息派的理由完全围绕就业市场。理事沃勒的警告挺直接，他觉得就业一旦加速恶化，靠事后补救根本来不及。所以他明确说了，就目前掌握的数据，他会支持9月16至17日那场会议降息25个基点。整个委员会里，公开把降息主张讲出来的，目前就他一个。
这种对立背后，其实是双重使命的两个目标在往相反方向拉扯。通胀下不来，就业又有隐忧，联储卡在中间，两边都不太舒服。
主席沃什倒是没急着站队。他重申2%的通胀目标不会动摇，同时也强调，必要时候会果断出手。但对9月的具体路径，他拒绝给任何前瞻指引，把球完全踢给了会前要发布的两份CPI报告。
市场的反应也耐人寻味。期货市场的定价目前一边倒地偏向加息预期，降息的主张几乎没被定价进去。换句话说，委员会内部公开呈现的光谱和市场的单边押注之间，存在一个不小的裂口。这个裂口最后怎么填，CPI数据说了算，而且留给数据裁决的空间，比以往都要大。
从投资的角度去理解这件事，这种分歧公开化，恰恰说明美联储对信息是透明的，不同声音都能被市场看到，反而不容易有预期差的黑天鹅。沃什的“必要时果断行动”这个表态其实是个重要保障，真到关键时刻，他倾向于出手，这个锚定效应对市场信心是加分的。
再看两个方向各自的逻辑。加息派拿通胀超五年说事儿，这恰恰证明美联储对长期目标的严肃性，长期来看，物价稳定的承诺是可信的，这对持有资产的人来说是个定心丸。降息派关注就业风险，又说明联储不是死板地盯着通胀数字，它也在意实体经济，这种平衡感反而增加了政策的灵活性。
市场目前完全没给降息定价，这里的预期差就值得琢磨了。一旦后续CPI数据出现一点点向好的迹象，降息预期随时可能被快速重估，整个利率路径的定价都得跟着动。这种单边定价结构，往往意味着一旦方向确认，修正的速度会很快。
9月17日之前那两份CPI报告，重要性怎么强调都不过分。这不只是数据发布，而是整个政策路径的裁决者。委员会的公开分歧、市场的单边押注，最后都得回到数据本身来验证。这里面隐含的机会在于，当前的资产价格里已经充分计入了加息的预期，如果通胀数据稍微给点空间，整个定价逻辑就得重新来一遍。从这个角度看，市场的定价纠偏机制本身，就提供了一个值得关注的切入点。美联储的透明度、对双重使命的兼顾、以及沃什那个“果断行动”的底牌，这些因素叠加在一起，对中长期的市场环境来说，是偏积极的信号。After the USD/JPY briefly approached 164, the US and Japan finally moved from verbal warnings to joint intervention.
Japan's Finance Minister has confirmed that Japan and the U.S. will jointly intervene in the foreign exchange market on July 31 Eastern Time, and reserve the possibility of further action. This marks the first time in 15 years since 2011 that the two sides have joined forces to enter the forex market.
This message brings two forces in opposite directions to $BTC and $ETH.
Intervention usually means selling dollars and buying yen. When the US dollar weakens as a result, BTC denominated in US dollars is more likely to find valuation support.
Another force comes from yen carry trades. In the past, large amounts of funds borrowed low-yield yen to relocate to US Treasuries, US stocks, and crypto assets. A sudden appreciation of the yen raises repayment costs, forcing some funds to sell risk assets and repay yen liabilities. The reversal of yen carry trades in 2024 already demonstrated the speed of cross-market deleveraging.
Next, we can observe both USD/JPY and BTC together:
The yen appreciates and BTC weakens simultaneously, indicating that carry funds are contracting;
The yen has appreciated, BTC has actually risen, and US Treasury yields have not continued to climb, indicating that the weaker dollar has prevailing support.
Momentary fluctuations caused by a single forex market intervention will be quickly digested. If the US and Japan continue to take further actions, the yen financing chain will shrink for several consecutive days, and the impact will gradually spread to crypto liquidity.
#美日确认联合购汇 That's not selling—it's the damper dissipating force.
Strategy, this "reinforced concrete megastructure" worth 842,138 BTC, only dismantled 1,638 "precast panels" for cash over the seven construction days from July 27 to August 2. Average price $63,957, below the cost line of $75,419—equivalent to buying a batch of high-grade steel and now clearing it off at rebar prices. This is not structural damage, but emergency cash flow repairs.
The last time 3,588 pieces were dismantled was from July 1st to 5th, then took a four-week break. This time, the amount dismantled is less than half of the last time—what does that mean? This indicates that the load-bearing wall remains thick, but the tower crane requires fuel. Of the $104.7 million dismantled, not a single brick is left for property speculators—it needs to be poured into the "cement mixer" of the 12% fixed preferred dividend dividend, plus the repurchase of subordinated debt from their own properties. This is a classic "builder's self-rescue trick": when the market rejects your facade design, first ensure the elevator reaches the top floor.
What I'm more concerned about is the on-chain transfer of 299.843 BTC, which quietly crossed the beam between August 2 and 3. This information will only be disclosed next week in the 8-K structural drawing—most likely another "embedded component" for preferred stock dividends. This batch of preferred shares is now trading about 10% below the issue price. What does this mean? When pre-sale flats can't sell well, developers can only use ready-to-move-in properties as collateral to recover funds. Only when the subscription price returns to the issue price will the main engineering team re-enter the market to buy land.
The fundamentals of the entire project remain unchanged: the foundation of 840,000 BTC, each brick with a unique hash number. They tore down 1,600 yuan and didn't even show a single parking lot. But while everyone is watching this 'loss-making' mark, they forget to look at the reverse dashed line—the five-month downtrend line was just broken, the explosion point in the Iranian oil pipeline caused black gold volatility to surge, and BTC—have you ever seen a skyscraper blow up its main building just because of a nearby gas station fire?
Structure doesn't lie. This round only dismantled half of the last time, indicating that the low-level transfer ammunition hadn't been used up yet, and the steel bars hidden in the load-bearing walls hadn't even rusted yet. As for preferred shares not being built before the issue price is returned—that's a construction safety net for creditors, not a refuge for retail investors. #MSTRSells1638BTC Crypto KOL Ansem posted a brief message—not much, but a lot of information. His core judgment is that we are entering an "on-chain supercycle," and the nature of this round is completely different from the previous one. Looking back at the last bull market, it seemed lively, but 90% of retail investors were actually quite miserable, basically becoming the "fuel" for smart funds to exit. $ETH Why? Because retail investors want to buy a Meme coin, the threshold is ridiculously high. By the time those coins are listed on big exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, their market value will already be in the billions, and entering them means taking over. Moreover, on-chain infrastructure often lags back then, and mobile user experience is poor, so retail investors simply can't compete on the same starting line as professional players. But now, the situation has indeed changed. The core change Ansem mentioned is that the friction costs for speculation have almost dropped to zero. Now, an ordinary user can use their mobile wallet to buy any newly trending item on the chain with one click in less than a minute. This kind of immediacy was unimaginable before. $GRVT This change, in turn, has forced centralized exchanges. They realized that if they didn't take the initiative soon, massive trading volume would flow entirely on-chain. So you see, Coinbase now natively integrates wallets, allowing users to seamlessly participate in new coin launches. It's not that they've become more conscientious, but that the pressure of traffic and transaction volume is obvious. Ansem also highlighted a key circulating Meme coin get-rich-quick effect, which attracts not only retail investors but also developers. Smart people see here