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$BTC
Here's one of the reasons I think we move lower into market open tomorrow.
Weekend price action on the LTF has formed a textbook bear flag, or rising channel.
I'm watching the support trendline.
If we test it and break through, that Friday low at $83.8k should get swept, and price can keep moving lower from there.#OKXNOW:LiveTomorrow $DOGE is pressing $0.09516 support after losing the MA5/10/20 cluster.
Momentum currently favors sellers, but entering directly at support is risky. A relief bounce offers better positioning.
Short entry: $0.09575–$0.09600
SL: $0.09650
TP1: $0.09516
TP2: $0.09476
TP3: $0.09430
Educational only not financial advice.
#OKXNOW:LiveTomorrow #FedSeptemberMinutes #HormuzStillClosed $SOL broke below its moving averages with rising sell volume and printed a new intraday low at $119.38.
The cleaner bearish setup is a failed recovery into the broken $120 area.
Short entry: $119.95–$120.25
SL: $120.65
TP1: $119.38
TP2: $118.90
TP3: $118.40
Educational only not financial advice.
#OKXNOW:LiveTomorrow #FedSeptemberMinutes #HormuzStillClosed $BTC - update
H1/H4 trends reclaimed and price is now forming an H12 compression setup into $86.6k
Watching for:
- Compression to tighten > breakout above the level > continuation play.
- Failure to break above on this 6th test > rejection down to 1D trend.
There's a trade both sides.
See quoted post for the daily > weekly gap fill if the daily trend fails.#OKXNOW:LiveTomorrow First, let's present the opposing view: Even if the direction of $PENGU is correct, the current position may cause those following the trend to incur higher costs.
The current price is 0.009601, about 4.08% away from the 1-hour support at 0.009209, and about 4.62% away from the resistance at 0.010045. Here, what’s lacking is not directional speculation, but the sustainability after the price truly breaks through the boundary.
The two charts of $PENGU are giving opposite answers: the short-term has already turned, but the larger timeframe refuses to acknowledge it.
The 1-hour chart is weak with RSI at 45, while the 4-hour chart is strong with RSI at 68. Short-term sentiment and the larger timeframe structure are not aligned. Positions like this are most prone to mistaking a rebound for a reversal or confusing a gear shift for a peak.
My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 0.010045 can the short-term regain control; if it breaks below 0.009209, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.008644. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.010087 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
To continuously track this segment, just remember 0.010045 and 0.009209. I will return in the next round to check if the judgment has been overturned by the market.
Is the short cycle signaling in advance, or just creating a false move?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.🔥A strong weekend rally doesn't necessarily mean Monday will continue to rise. The biggest question about BTC's current rebound is simply: is this a true breakout, or just a brief correction after a rebound in risk assets?
📊 $BTC has climbed from around 83.1K to about 85.3K, up approximately 1.07% in the past 7 days and about 7.57% over 30 days. Short-term bulls have indeed regained some initiative, but since the previous high of 87.2K hasn't been broken, it's clearly too early to say the upward space is fully open.
💣 What’s more concerning is the macro environment. Oil prices are rising, U.S. stock futures are strengthening, and BTC is rebounding in sync, which looks lively, but the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5.2%. If the Middle East situation continues to push energy prices higher, inflation expectations and long-term interest rates could again pressure risk assets.
⚡ $ETH is currently relatively weaker than BTC, with 2645 as key support and 2775 as resistance above. ETF fund interest still leans more toward BTC. A TD sell signal appeared on the 4H chart, so beware of a "weekend pump, Monday dump" scenario.
🧭 Key levels: BTC needs to hold above 85.5K with volume to target 87K; if it can't surpass 85K, don't chase aggressively; observe if there is support around 84K; breaking below 83.1K signals weakness and calls for deleveraging. The same applies to ETH if it falls below 2630.
💬 Do you think Monday will continue to rally, or will there be a pullback first? #OKXNOW直播：就在明天，速来预约！ #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC This ID's view: If the central pivot's upper edge is broken through, the support below will be 83888. Such fluctuations are not surprising. In Chan theory, this kind of movement belongs to the middle yin phase, which is a phase of fluctuation without a clear direction of rising or falling. During this phase, the Chan master’s approach is to do T trading within the pivot to reduce costs.ETH/USDT BULLISH, but no entry yet.
ETH is holding the higher-low structure from $2,633, while the current price remains below the key $2,749–$2,771 resistance.
Conditional LONG
Entry: $2,750–$2,760 after 4H close + retest
SL: $2,715
TP1: $2,800
TP2: $2,855
Invalidation 4H close below $2,715
The main catalyst is still constructive staking demand, although the recent MetaMask-related validator exits add short-term uncertainty.
#OKXTraderVoices
$ETH #circle minted $2.75 billion USDC on Solana in 7 days
[Old Leek Observation] $SOL
There has been a significant capital signal on Solana these days. Circle minted about $2.75 billion USDC on Solana in the past 7 days.
What does $2.75 billion mean? It’s equivalent to an average daily increase of nearly $390 million.
This does not mean that the entire $2.75 billion has rushed into SOL and altcoins. Because the minted amount must be offset by redemptions and burns during the same period to determine the actual net inflow.
But one thing is clear:
Recently, a large amount of USD liquidity has indeed been prepared for the Solana ecosystem. What I want to watch next is not USDC itself, but where this liquidity ultimately flows.
If it starts entering DEXs, DeFi, and SOL ecosystem assets, a round of capital rotation may occur next.🔥The most easily misread point on Monday is here: BTC rising does not mean the crypto market is independently bullish! Today looks more like a collective rebound of risk assets, with the real test coming after the US stock market opens.
📈 $BTC rose over the weekend from around 83,100 to about 85,300, a 7-day increase of approximately 1.07% and a 30-day increase of about 7.57%, so the rebound structure is still intact for now. But the previous high at 87,200 remains a strong resistance; to open up more space, volume support is necessary.
🌍 Why am I not rushing to chase? Oil prices are rising, US stock futures are slightly up, and risk assets are rebounding together, but the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5.2%. The Middle East situation is pushing up oil prices and inflation expectations, and long-term interest rates are suppressing valuations. Essentially, it’s still a tug-of-war between macro factors and coin prices.
⚠️ $ETH support is at 2645, resistance at 2775, with funds still favoring BTC; a TD sell signal appeared on the 4-hour chart. Whether the weekend rally can continue into Monday needs to be observed.
🎯 Trading notes: If 85,500 holds with volume, look for 87,000; if it can’t break through around 85,000, reduce positions and don’t chase; if it pulls back to 84,000 or ETH 2645 finds support, observe; if it breaks below 83,100 or ETH 2630, reduce leverage.
💬 On Monday, do you expect the rally to continue or a pullback after a spike? #OKXNOW直播：就在明天，速来预约！ #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $ETH couldn't break above 2800, nor fall below 2600, just oscillating back and forth.$BTC bounce to $86,400 was aggressively sold, pushing price beneath all three hourly averages.
The $86,000 area has now shifted into resistance. A weak retest could continue the move toward the daily low.
Short entry: $85,850–$86,050
SL: $86,330
TP1: $85,420
TP2: $85,100
TP3: $84,750
Educational only not financial advice.
#OKXNOW:LiveTomorrow #FedSeptemberMinutes #HormuzStillClosed The Nasdaq index hit a new intraday all-time high, approaching 27,400 points
Underlying logic
The Nasdaq represents US tech growth stocks, which belong to the same category of risk assets as cryptocurrencies.
With the Nasdaq hitting new highs, the market is trading on two expectations:
1. The market believes the US economy will avoid a hard landing, and the Fed has room to cut rates later;
2. Capital prefers high-growth risk assets, and risk appetite is rising.
But ⚠️ key point: Although the Nasdaq is at new highs, US Treasury yields have not fallen significantly. The stock market is rising, but long-term interest rates remain high, creating a very divided market.
Impact by currency
BTC (benchmark large-cap)
✅ Positive: Global risk appetite warming will provide emotional support for Bitcoin, reducing the probability of a sharp crash.
❌ Constraints: High US Treasury yields and continued outflows from spot ETFs limit the upside potential.
ETH (elastic asset)
More strongly correlated with Nasdaq tech stocks, with greater volatility than BTC.
If risk sentiment continues, ETH’s rebound gains will outperform Bitcoin;
But as long as ETF funds keep flowing out, the sustainability of the rise is questionable; if US stocks pull back after a rally, ETH’s correction will also be larger.
ZEC (small-cap privacy coin)
Highly follows the beta of the overall market, with no independent fundamentals.
• When market sentiment is good, it is the most elastic, rising more sharply than BTC and ETH;
• Drawbacks: No major funds specifically supporting it, so if US stocks turn down, its drop is the largest among the three coins; also, regulatory pressure persists, capping its upside.
Three short-term scenario forecasts
Scenario 1 (highest probability): Nasdaq remains volatile at high levels without a major drop
BTC: +1%~+3%
ETH: +2%~+4.5%
ZEC: +3%~+7%
Scenario 2 (small probability positive): Nasdaq continues to rally, US Treasury yields fall simultaneously
BTC: +3%~+6%
ETH: +4%~+8%
ZEC: +7%~+12%
Scenario 3 (small probability negative): Nasdaq spikes then plunges
BTC: -2% ~ -5%
ETH: -4% ~ -8%
ZEC: -7% ~ -13%
Two key indicators to watch closely
1. 10-year US Treasury yield: The stock market is lively, but if yields remain high, the crypto market is just an emotional rebound; only a clear decline in yields will open sustained upside.
2. BTC/ETH spot ETF fund flows: If ETFs shift from outflows to inflows, the rebound will be sustainable; continuous outflows mean all gains are just rebounds.
Overall subjective view
The Nasdaq new high is a positive sentiment factor but not decisive. The short-term market is oscillating with a bullish bias, allowing for small rebound trades but not to be taken as the start of a major bull market.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $ARB Arbitrum has finally started receiving real money from institutional pockets, with Robinhood Chain delivering $42.58 million in revenue over seventy days, of which $4.26 million went directly to ARB.
Robinhood Chain's total revenue over seventy days was $42.58 million, with $4.26 million shared with Arbitrum according to the protocol. This is the first time the DAO has received real enterprise-level revenue sharing, not just testnet play.
Sequencer revenue goes to the treasury, inflation unlocks keep selling pressure constant, and holders still only profit from price differences; SEC staff guidance has removed securities risk, but the bargain price has its reasons.
Regulation is easing but inflation hasn't stopped, with a position cap at 30%. Hold at 0.185 aiming for 0.215, reduce positions if it breaks 0.175. ARB's cheapness is not a bargain but the cost of safety education and unpaid inflation.U.S. stock market opens flat with tech stocks diverging, crypto concept stocks broadly rising, $BTC 85,000 support becomes the focus
U.S. stocks opened mixed on Monday. At the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.15% to 51,098 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.08% to 7,728 points, and the Nasdaq rose 0.16% to 27,233 points. The tech rally paused, with Microsoft up 1.53% and Nvidia up 0.57% leading the gains, while Tesla fell 0.81%. The storage chip sector performed well, with Seagate and Western Digital both up over 3%.
Crypto concept stocks also strengthened in tandem, with Circle, Coinbase, and Strategy all rising over 2%, linked to BTC's intraday movement. However, macro pressures remain, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above 5.3%, and WTI crude oil fell over 2% to $89.29 per barrel.
Back to the market, BTC is currently at 85,624, retreating after a 24h high of 86,994. The 1-hour KDJ J value of 30.8 has entered the oversold zone, indicating a short-term need for recovery. The EMA7 (86,190) above is a clear resistance, while 85,306 below is a key support. Ahead of the Fed minutes, both bulls and bears are cautious. Whether BTC can stabilize above 85,000 depends on the U.S. market's performance at the close tonight. Do you think this pullback is a buying opportunity or a continuation of the decline? Share your thoughts in the comments! $BTC
We got another Sunday pump that left behind a cluster of long liquidations around 85k.
As we know, Sunday pumps are mostly fake moves that tend to get reversed within the next few days.
That’s why I expect price to take this cluster out, as it would also be a retest of an important support level.
From there, I expect a bounce and continuation higher.#FedSeptemberMinutes Holding this position makes me feel calm, today is the 5th day
Total position 1120u
Cost 300u
Currently profit 820u
6 positions are still open
History of 15 positions, 3 losses
Total realized profit 205u from closed positions,
Unrealized profit 623u.
Currently, the position take-profit is set at the cost line to let the profit run
I am holding SAND, PUMP, and CT altcoins for now, I believe there will be a significant drop.
For ETH and BTC, I expect a rally, with take-profits set at 2799 and 87850 respectively.
Previously, I opened a long position on ZEC at 1346 and took profit at 1387, but did not open a reverse position. Now at 1348, I am testing a long position, will take profit at 1378. I think it will slowly decline afterward. Hopefully, I won't get stuck at a high point. If the stop loss hits 100%, I will also exit. Not having opened a position for three days makes me a bit restless, so I am using 30u to satisfy my urge to open random trades.
Regardless of total position size, each trade costs about 30u.
When leverage is increased, if I have some confidence, I do a T trade to adjust the cost price when the profit is around -300. Only do one T trade, with a maximum stop loss of 150u.
I don't hold losing positions, and I don't get emotional.
First, I will slowly get familiar with the rhythm at a total position of 1000u, then try playing with larger positions.After configuring the elastic asset $PENDLE,
I found a stable asset $SKY.
According to research, $SKY is a "cash cow" type of stable asset. Token Terminal lists it as the largest issuer in the tokenized fund market.
Its revenue scale is at a gap level in DeFi: the cumulative gross revenue in 2026 is about $329 million, with net protocol revenue around $121 million. The protocol collateral reached $11.1 billion (year-over-year +18.2%), and the combined circulation of USDS/DAI is about $9.5 billion. Q2 gross protocol revenue was $107 million (year-over-year +10.5%), net protocol revenue was $40.09 million (year-over-year +25.1%), achieving surplus for five consecutive quarters.
Moreover, the business model of the "DeFi Federal Bank" is clear: Sky issues USDS/DAI as "currency" and lends funds through three major agents—Spark (focused on crypto lending), Grove (focused on RWA), and Obex—to earn interest spreads.
However, it should be noted:
The deflationary effect is "symbolic," not "revolutionary": this is SKY's biggest problem. For example, in the latest net protocol revenue of $15.75 million, only about $630,000 (5%) is truly used for permanent burn, while about $2.83 million (22.5%) is used for staking buybacks, which are "bought back and distributed to stakers." Stakers can claim and sell at any time, so it is not permanent deflation. The monthly deflation rate is only about 0.04%. $BTC
Here's one of the reasons I think we move lower into market open tomorrow.
Weekend price action on the LTF has formed a textbook bear flag, or rising channel.
I'm watching the support trendline.
If we test it and break through, that Friday low at $83.8k should get swept, and price can keep moving lower from there.#HormuzStillClosed Today I am really furious to death. I missed the semiconductor flash, and also missed the other one, both were just a little bit off. It's a bit of a pity.
SNDK｜Tonight I am still bearish, but I won't chase the short.
SanDisk dropped from 1806, touched a low of 1710.3, and now is grinding back near 1729. My current short position cost is 1784.9, with a 9.411 position size.
Tonight I mainly watch three areas:
1744-1747 first rebound resistance. If the volume can't keep up after rising here, I will add shorts at 1744 and hold. 1758 Fib 0.5. If it can stabilize here again on the 30-minute chart, it means this is not an ordinary rebound, I will first close the added position and continue to observe the original 1784 base position.
1715-1710
This is the most critical area below.
1710 was caught once before, so if it comes here again, I won't blindly wait for a break, I will take some profit first.
But if 1710 breaks with volume, then the drop below is not just a matter of a dozen points. The next target I see is around 1684, and if weaker, around 1670.
Rebound fails at 1744-1747 → continue shorting.
1710 holds → take partial profit on shorts.
1710 breaks → hold base position and watch 1684.
1758 stabilizes → no more adding shorts.
1770 recovers → start active defense.
1785 stabilizes → I admit I was wrong on this short logic.
$SOXL $SNDK #OKXNOW直播：就在明天，速来预约！
Tomorrow's live stream will cut straight to the point, directly analyzing Bitcoin's current key levels.
Focus on the upper resistance zone at 88,500-90,000, which is a dense area of previous highs and a sentiment threshold; whether it breaks through will determine the short-term rhythm. Keep a close eye on the lower support at 84,200-85,000; holding this means the bullish structure remains intact, but if it breaks, watch out for a pullback near 82,000.
During the live stream, we will combine real-time trends to clearly explain the long-short logic, position strategies, and sudden market turning points, avoiding just looking at price without structure.
If you're interested, remember to book in advance. See you in the live room tomorrow to clearly monitor the key levels together.$ETH bounces casually, and people start shouting the bull market is back? 😂
Really interesting, getting excited over a small rise, treating a rebound as the start of a bull market, but as soon as the price hits resistance, it gets slammed down immediately. The trapped positions above are pressing down hard; thinking it can take off so easily is probably just dreaming.
In this kind of volatile market now, I actually feel it’s more like creating opportunities for bulls to take over. As for those stubbornly holding long positions, it’s not about being firm, but just unwilling to admit they’re wrong.
But the biggest fear in trading is exactly getting carried away by emotions. Investment results often fail not because of the product, but because one can’t withstand short-term fluctuations, ending up forced by fear and greed to chase highs and sell lows.
Position sizing is equally important; when heavily invested, even a small pullback can break your mindset. Controlling position size doesn’t guarantee you won’t lose, but at least it leaves room to keep trading. No investment tool is omnipotent; whether it suits you ultimately depends on your capital planning and risk tolerance.
As for $ETH, I’m still holding my short positions and waiting.
If you really think the bull market is here, don’t just shout in the comments, show your real long positions and let’s talk. I don’t buy into bullish talk alone. 😏
#OKXNOW直播：就在明天，速来预约！ #霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Evening US service sector PMI data released: S&P Global Services PMI final at 58.8 slightly better than previous, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI recorded 54.9 slightly below expectations. The two data points diverged, market interpretation is complex, no clear directional signal given. On geopolitical news, Iran's Interior Minister visited Doha for talks, easing expectations in the Middle East provided slight sentiment support to risk assets.
Looking at $BTC, daily moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, MA5, MA10, and MA20 continue upward, on-chain signals show the months-long concentrated whale sell-off rhythm has paused phase-wise, easing selling pressure. However, volume has not shown a breakout surge, it is a slow bull consolidation upward, do not blindly chase highs betting on a one-sided surge.
View: Long
Attack level: 87000, Defense level: 84200
$ETH still mainly follows Bitcoin, no independent trend emerged. Short-term moving averages provide support, but volume is flat, buying momentum insufficient, only if Bitcoin further opens upward space does Ethereum have greater upside potential.
View: Long
Attack level: 2740, Defense level: 2640
$ZEC after earlier surge saw heavy profit-taking, daily MA5 crossed below MA10 forming a short-term death cross, falling for several days, each small rebound lacks incremental funds following, heavy resistance above. Even with a strong market, its recovery strength remains weak.
View: Short
Attack level: 1270, Defense level: 1370 #This week the Fed will release the September meeting minutes It's been a back-and-forth struggle, but one good point is that the funding rate for longs has dropped by half from this morning until now. If there aren't as many longs and shorts start entering, as long as 85200 is not broken, the market is still bullish. I will continue to monitor and track the market, and will post updates if there are any developments. Please like if you receive this $BTC $ETH 🔥 Tonight, BTC actually has two scenarios: either it breaks through 87,000 to open up space, or it fails for the third time and pulls back to 85,000 or even 84,000. The real key is not to predict, but to wait for the market to give the answer.
📊 $BTC launched another attack on the 86,000–87,000 range this afternoon, marking the third attempt in a short period. The first time it surged to 87,000 then fell back, the second attack was noticeably weaker. If it still can't hold steady on the third try, short-term bulls' confidence may be affected, and once profit-taking and chasing buyers retreat simultaneously, a downward stampede is likely.
💥 In the past 24 hours, about $138 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with $113 million in short liquidations, including $57.07 million in BTC shorts. This data indicates a clear short squeeze during the previous rise. But the question arises: after a large number of shorts have been cleared, who will continue to buy for the subsequent rise?
🧱 Therefore, 86,000 is the most important dividing line currently. Staying below it increases the probability of a short-term breakout failure; watch 85,000 and 84,000 below.
🚀 On the other hand, if the price breaks through 87,000 with volume and further holds above 88,500, then short liquidations above could form new momentum, making 90,000 the next target area.
⚠️ When repeatedly attacking highs, the biggest risk is mindless chasing. First watch for the breakout, then for confirmation.
💬 Do you think it will hold steady at 87,000 this time, or will it surge high and then fall back again? #OKXNOW直播：就在明天，速来预约！ $BTC $ETH $SOL
Monday. Jobs bid holding. Wall is still there.
$BTC around $86.0K–$86.5K.
Sunday close $86.5K. High $86.7K.
Wall is $87.1K–$87.4K. $90K after that close.
Fail $84K, then $82.8K.
$ETH around $2,715.
Above $2.70K. $2.74K tagged.
Door $2.77K. Floor $2.60K.
$SOL around $121.
$117 held all week. $123 first. $125 is the local high.
Soft jobs cut the hike. Oil above $100 is the cap.
$87.4K / $2.77K / $125 closes. Not the $86K print.Look at the current contract funding rates; the longs are still crazily paying fees to the shorts, thinking they have the upper hand.
Such extreme positions often signal an impending market reversal. The main players love this scenario: first, they push the price up, making the longs believe a breakout is coming, enticing them to add margin; then suddenly, a sharp drop hits, triggering a cascade of liquidations, and finally, the price slowly recovers.
The current market is a typical "meat grinder" mode. If you're trading swings inside it, you're basically paying fees to the exchange and providing liquidity to the main players.
My strategy is simple: place short orders at the 85,000 high, ignore the intermediate fluctuations, and only target the inevitable "deleveraging" crash. If you're also a contract trader, I suggest you quickly reduce leverage or join me in shorting, so at least you won't be paying taxes to the longs every day.
$BTC #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Today, altcoin sentiment is warming up, with funds flowing back into highly elastic small coins. The name PUMP carries its own narrative; after resisting declines in the order book, it was the first to form an independent structure. The sentiment for $PUMP has shifted from watching to actively accumulating.
Entered a 50x long position at 0.005515, now marked at 0.006422, +822.30%. Technically, the bottom pattern has completed, with a low-volume pullback that did not break support. After a volume surge, it climbed along a micro uptrend channel, confirming a bullish structure. The 50x leverage causes extreme volatility; when floating profits are substantial, strict drawdown control is essential. Move the stop loss closer to cost to lock in big gains, and let the remaining position extend with the structure.
Coffee has bottomed, screen locked in. Current mindset: lock in profits first, then watch the market with the remaining funds. For the next candlestick, guess whether it will continue upward or first sweep my defense to test my composure? 🙏$BTC $ETH
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $ETH 2726 short
I lean more towards a rise followed by a fall. Although there is support around 2700, the resistance between 2730-2750 remains. As long as it doesn't effectively hold above 2730, I still expect a short-term pullback, first targeting 2680-2700. If it breaks, continue holding; if the support is strong, consider reducing positions for a short-term reversal.
If the judgment is wrong, stop loss; don't stubbornly hold on.$BTC📉
BTC gave that final push into our 86K–87K short POI as expected in the last update.
Now it has started dumping from that level.
We shorted from 86K and the trade is now running in profit.
Looking for further downside toward 81K–82K.
Where I’ll watch the reaction to see whether BTC holds that level or breaks lower.🎯#HormuzStillClosed NVIDIA NVDA 4H: Trend Following After All-Time High
NVIDIA NVDA just hit an all-time high of 237.9, rising 174% from 86.6 in a year and a half.
The 4H ascending channel is clean: highs from 213 to 238, lows from 190 to 221, both rising in sync. MA20 is at 227 and trending upward, price deviates by 4.5%, trendline at 222.
Volume and price coordination: volume expands on the rally, contracts on pullbacks.
Support levels after the new high: 230 (previous high turned support) / 227 (MA20) / 221 (trendline). Holding above 237.9 enters price discovery; breaking 221 means the channel deteriorates.Brazilian election first round comeback: $EWZ rose 11% in one day, but the real contradiction isn't who is president$EWZ Today's single day +11.65%, current price 43.42. But this is not a crypto market — it was the first round of Brazilian election reversal. I reviewed "What happened→ how the market reacted→ why it rose→ Where the real contradiction lies" — the last link differs from what most people think. First round: poll collapse Brazil's October 4 election first round, Flávio Bolsonaro (right-wing) 47%, Lula 45% — neither won half, the second round on October 25. The key is the "backfire": the mainstream pre-election expectation was Lula leading. So this is not "right wing winning," but the market repricing the unexpected. Flávio received over 55 million votes — this number shows just how absurdly wrong the polls were. How the market reacted | Assets | Reaction | Why it matters | | --- | --- | ---| | Ibovespa spot | +7%, 207,000 points | All-time high; But the stock market rally can be explained by sentiment | | Ibovespa futures | Highest +9%, 211,000 points | Futures are more aggressive | | Brazilian stocks | Up to +15% | Bank stocks (Itaú) lead gains | | Real | USD/REIS nearly -5BTC Dominance (BTC.D) has just formed a Death Cross, a signal that previously led to sharp declines in dominance in 2016 and 2021.
In both instances, capital then tended to rotate strongly into altcoins. Currently, BTC.D is around the 59–60% range, so if it continues to weaken and breaks support, the likelihood of altcoins entering a stronger growth phase will be notable.
However, confirmation from price action is still needed.🔥 The most interesting point for BTC now: the rise looks strong, but 86,000–87,000 has already blocked the bulls twice in a row. If the third attempt to break through fails again, a major short-term reshuffle of positions is very likely.
📌 The key level to watch for $BTC right now isn’t any single candlestick, but the 86,000 bull-bear dividing line. The first attempt to break 87,000 didn’t hold, and the second didn’t even reach 87,000, indicating that selling pressure above still exists. If this time it rises again but falls back, the chasing funds may start to loosen, and previously accumulated long positions could turn into short-term selling pressure.
🔥 More importantly, the recent rise isn’t entirely driven by continuous spot buying. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $138 million, including $113 million in short liquidations, with BTC short liquidations at $57.07 million. A large number of shorts were forced out, which itself provided extra upward momentum for the price.
⚠️ But after short liquidations, whether the market can continue to rise depends on whether new funds can keep up. The liquidation heatmap shows a clear short liquidation zone near $90,000, and long liquidation zones near 83,000 and 75,000.
📉 If it breaks below 86,000, watch 85,000 → 84,000; 📈 if it breaks out with volume above 87,000–88,500 and holds, then continue to watch 90,000.
💬 At this position now, do you dare to chase longs? #OKXNOW直播：就在明天，速来预约！ #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC
Price will have swept 97K and be trading in the 90Ks within the next couple of months...
As I keep repeating, this bull market will likely be a 30% quicker version of the previous one, since this is the first time the bear market has lasted only 266 days instead of 365 and ended roughly 20% shallower.
This could lead to a new ATH around July 2027 and a macro top around mid-2028.#HormuzStillClosed $BTC $ETH $XRP
Monday hold. Jobs bid still on.
$BTC — around $86.0K–$86.5K.
Sunday close $86.5K. High $86.7K.
$87.1K–$87.4K is the wall. $90K only after that close.
Fail $84K, then $82.8K.
$ETH around $2,715.
Above $2.70K. $2.74K tagged.
The door is still $2.77K. Floor $2.60K.
$XRP — around $1.51.
$1.46 held. $1.55 is next.
$1.66 close is the real break.
Soft jobs cut the hike. Oil above $100 is the cap.
Don’t call $86K a breakout. $87.4K close is.$BTC
We got another Sunday pump that left behind a cluster of long liquidations around 85k.
As we know, Sunday pumps are mostly fake moves that tend to get reversed within the next few days.
That’s why I expect price to take this cluster out, as it would also be a retest of an important support level.
From there, I expect a bounce and continuation higher.#HormuzStillClosed So BTC is flowing back in 📈
ETH continues to flow out 📉
Essentially reflecting that
risk appetite for funds hasn't truly returned yet
So don't rush to call it altcoin season 🔥
Only when ETH also starts continuously attracting funds
does it indicate the market is really
shifting from clustering around BTC to willing to go all-in on the crypto space
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly dropped to only 29,000, and the rate hike probability plummeted from 66% directly down to 22%. BTC took this opportunity to break through 86,000. It's not that buying pressure is fierce, but macro factors are first to back down.
$BTC is currently at $86,005, up about 1.6% in 24h, with a market cap back to 1.72 trillion, still 32% below the all-time high of 126,000. Fear & Greed Index at 65 (Greed zone).
September nonfarm payrolls only +29,000 (expected nearly 90,000), unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%. The market cut the October rate hike probability to 22%, risk assets collectively catching a breather. BTC benefits from macro easing, not from its own strength.
The SEC just approved the first batch of 3x leveraged crypto ETPs, opening a new channel for leverage demand; but the 10Y yield is still at 5.28%, Brent crude is approaching 103, inflation tail is not over. 86,500-87,000 is strong resistance, 83,500 is the iron bottom.
Hold 83,500 and push to 87,000; reduce positions if it breaks 81,000. BTC’s break above 86,000 this time was a door pried open by the unemployment data; once macro turns, the door can close at any time.$HYPE just found a second engine for its buybacks.
Hyperliquid received its first $14.58M USDC payment under AQAv2, with reserve yield feeding the Assistance Fund that buys HYPE. Hours earlier, its perpetual-market data landed on Bloomberg Terminal.
One catalyst absorbs token supply. The other puts Hyperliquid on institutional screens.
HYPE: $93.49 on OKX, +2.25%/24h. Two doors opened on the same day.BTC's ETF funds are recovering, while $ETH's ETF funds continue to flow out, yet the prices of both have surged almost in sync — this combination of "fund divergence and price convergence" is usually difficult to sustain long-term.
The US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of about $103 million on October 1 after a cumulative net inflow of approximately $3.1 billion over the previous 9 trading days, followed by a net inflow of about $31.7 million on October 2, marking two consecutive days of fund inflows.
In contrast, the ETH spot ETF has experienced net outflows for four consecutive trading days.
What is truly worth watching now is:
Can BTC's fund inflows continue to expand, and how long can ETH's price remain strong amid continuous fund outflows? 👀
$BTC $ETH 🔥 Don't get carried away by the continuous rise! What BTC really faces now is not "whether it can rise a bit more," but whether there will be new buying power to continue the rally after a large number of shorts have been liquidated.
⚔️ $BTC has already made three consecutive attempts to challenge the 86,000–87,000 range in the short term. The first attempt reached near 87,000 but couldn't hold; the second attempt was weaker and didn't even touch 87,000. This afternoon, the third attack is launched again. If it still rises and then falls back, the short-term pressure on the bulls is worth watching.
💰 Look at the liquidation data from the past 24 hours: about $138 million liquidated across the network, with shorts accounting for $113 million, and BTC short liquidations about $57.07 million. In other words, a significant part of this rally's momentum comes from shorts being forced to close positions. The more shorts are liquidated, the easier it is for the price to be pushed higher; but when short positions gradually disappear, the market needs genuine new funds to sustain the rise.
📉 This is why the 86,000 level is so critical. If 86,000 cannot hold, the short-term breakout logic will cool down; next support levels to watch are 85,000 and then 84,000.
🚀 Conversely, if it can break through 87,000–88,500 with volume and stabilize, then short liquidations above may accelerate further, bringing 90,000 back into view.
🎯 Now is not the time to guess the direction but to wait for the market to choose it. Do you think the third attempt will succeed? #OKXNOW直播：就在明天，速来预约！ #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 🔥 BTC just pulled back from the high of 86963, currently at 85606
Multiple S signals appeared consecutively on the 15-minute chart, showing obvious short-term pressure.
🎯 Current core structure:
Upper resistance: 86000-86200 (dense moving averages area + SuperTrend 86742)
Lower support: 85000-85100 (near 24h low)
Why the sudden accelerated pullback?
1️⃣ Momentum quickly faded after the surge, 4H level selling pressure realized
2️⃣ High US Treasury yields + cautious risk sentiment after Nasdaq open, funds choosing to take profits
3️⃣ Multiple bearish candles on 15-minute chart broke short-term moving averages, triggering short-term long stop losses
But the mid-term logic remains unchanged:
Daily structure still bullish, ETF funds still supporting, 85000 remains a key defense line.
📌 Outlook:
✅ Hold 85000 → High probability of another consolidation and buildup, rebound first targets 86000
❌ Break below 85000 effectively → Short-term may quickly test 84500-84000
💡 Personal view:
At the current level, neither chase shorts nor bottom-fish; wait for the 85000 defense result before acting.
Volatility will increase tonight, manage your position size well.
How are you handling your positions? $BTC $ETH $BTC tagged $87,000 overnight and sold right back. After two days under $85,500, one 4H candle last night ripped it from $85,400 to $86,800 and it's holding $86,400 now.
I called $85,500 as the line on Saturday. Buyers took it back, and $87,000 is the lid.
As long as $85,500 holds I think $87,000 gets taken out and $88,000 opens up. Lose it and $83,900 is the liquidity below.
Not financial advice#FedSeptemberMinutes RP suddenly "ignited" the South Korean market! 🇰🇷🔥
On the South Korean trading market, XRP trading heat once surpassed BTC and ETH, with Upbit's XRP/KRW trading volume reaching about $224 million, even higher than Coinbase's XRP trading volume during the same period.
What’s even more noteworthy is that this might not be just retail speculation.
During XRP Seoul 2026, representatives from South Korean financial institutions such as Kakao Bank and Woori Bank participated in XRPL-related discussions, with topics directly involving cross-border payments, tokenized deposits, and stablecoin financial applications.
At the same time, AI agents are becoming the new narrative for XRPL. t54 Labs revealed that AI agent payments based on x402 have already reached tens of millions in transactions, indicating that future scenarios where AI "earns, spends, and pays" on its own may really start to take shape.$BTC keeps getting rejected around $87–87.5K. Those upper wicks are hard to ignore
Price is back above the $84.8K pivot, while buyers are still holding the $82.5 83K support zone. That keeps the bounce alive for now
For me, $87.5K is the key level
Close above it and things start looking much stronger. Lose $82.5K and I’d be watching $81K next
Buyers are showing up. Now they need to break the ceiling#HormuzStillClosed "Two tests tomorrow, don't mistake upgrades for a surge"
On October 6, both $ETH and $ZEC have upgrade test nodes worth monitoring, but don't get carried away.
$ETH: Glamsterdam will activate on the Sepolia testnet, involving ePBS, BAL, and Gas mechanism adjustments, with the core goal still being to speed up and scale Ethereum. But note, this is a testnet, not the mainnet. What really matters tomorrow is whether the test is stable and if the clients and validators are compatible, not chasing the price up just because of the news.
$ZEC: NU7 enters a critical test phase, planning to reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds. If successful, there will be expectations for a mainnet upgrade later, naturally creating room for speculation. But the testnet is just the appetizer; the real test is on the mainnet.
So look at them separately: ETH focuses on technical implementation, ZEC on speculative expectations. Don't equate "testnet upgrade" directly with "price must rise." News can spark interest, but fundamentals determine how long the momentum lasts.
⚠️ For reference only, investment carries risks
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
#霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变
#OKXNOW直播：就在明天，速来预约！ RP suddenly "ignited" the South Korean market! 🇰🇷🔥
On the South Korean trading market, XRP trading heat once surpassed BTC and ETH, with Upbit's XRP/KRW trading volume reaching about $224 million, even higher than Coinbase's XRP trading volume during the same period.
What’s even more noteworthy is that this might not be just retail speculation.
During XRP Seoul 2026, representatives from South Korean financial institutions such as Kakao Bank and Woori Bank participated in XRPL-related discussions, with topics directly involving cross-border payments, tokenized deposits, and stablecoin financial applications.
At the same time, AI agents are becoming the new narrative for XRPL. t54 Labs revealed that AI agent payments based on x402 have already reached tens of millions in transactions, indicating that future scenarios where AI "earns, spends, and pays" on its own may really start to take shape.ETH extreme compression, is the catch-up window coming? But the giant whale short positions have already incurred a floating loss of 30 million!
On-chain data shows that among about 200 active giant whale addresses on Hyperliquid, ETH short positions are about $1.05 billion, long positions about $687 million, with short positions 1.5 times the size of long positions. One giant whale holds 78,000 ETH short positions, with an average opening price of 2340, currently a floating loss of about $30.29 million, liquidation price 4291. The short pressure is huge; once ETH breaks upward, a short squeeze could become the fuel.
At the same time, some whales are offloading:
An ancient whale with a cost of only $11.61 recharged 13,330 ETH to Coinbase 2 hours ago (worth about $36.37 million), expected to profit $36.21 million. On the other side, a large ETH holder who opened a position yesterday continues to withdraw 1,236 ETH from OKX, with holdings increased to 2,656 ETH, average price 2703. Some are taking profits, others are continuously accumulating.
ETF funds are weak:
Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $138 million last week, reversing from a net inflow of $690 million the previous week. BlackRock's ETHA had a single-day net inflow of $92.58 million, but overall funds are withdrawing, which is a signal to watch.
Key levels:
Resistance above at 2726-2750, support below at 2634-2650. ETH is currently lagging behind BTC; whether the catch-up window opens depends on whether it can break through 2750 with volume.Currently, I personally believe that Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH are more suitable to focus on shorting opportunities, with key levels around $87,000 and $2,800 respectively.
Why am I so firm about this now? 👇
First and foremost, the most important factor is that U.S. Treasury yields remain high!
Even if there is positive news, the market will quickly be suppressed.
At the same time, oil prices remain high, which further increases market pressure.
So what really needs attention now is not some negative news about a particular coin, but:
⚠️ Whether U.S. Treasury yields will further break upwards.
If yields continue to rise, risk assets may face greater pressure, and this is the real risk the market should be wary of right now.
$BTC $ETH