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ETH 1930 Resistance Failure and BEAT 3.98 Short Selling: What Are the Variables That Are Already Priced in and Unverified? With ETH failing to break through the 1930 resistance and retreating after this Fed rate freeze and Powell's remarks, what expectations has the market already priced in, and what variables remain unverified? Key facts and price movement: - ETH was rejected at the $1930 resistance level and is currently fluctuating around $1880. $1880 was tested as a short-term support level, and at the time of writing, a buy position was opened at $1883.3, with a stop loss set at $1852. - Altcoin BEAT entered short selling at $3.98, but since then, the price has been moving sideways around the $3.90 range, showing no clear direction. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Powell's unclear remarks at the press conference led to a multi-directional and competitive market situation. Cross-market delivery logic: - The Fed's rate freeze was already widely anticipated, and it itself has a significant impact on prices."Is a Warm Summer Coming for the U.S. Stock Market? How Much Market Truth Lies Behind Microsoft's Soaring Surge Breaking an 18-Year Record"
✨ After consecutive sharp declines, the broad market counterattack and brief warming in the U.S. stock market—can this rally really last?
Reviewing the July 31 trading volume leaderboard, Microsoft firmly holds the top spot with nearly $49.2 billion in single-day trading volume.
A 15.51% gain marks the best single-day performance since 2008, with market capitalization surging by $450 billion in one day, setting a new global stock market single-day market cap increase record.
Replaying the full market session, as a trader watching closely throughout, I feel especially profound.
Previously, hawkish Fed statements scared the market; the Dow plunged 1,000 points the day before, and everyone fell into panic selling.
Just one day later, Microsoft's better-than-expected earnings report directly reversed the market's pessimistic narrative, forcefully pulling the market out of the downturn.
🔹 Sector and Capital Differentiation Study 💡
Microsoft's report completely dispelled market concerns that "AI only burns money without profitability."
Azure cloud business growth hit 43%, while proactively lowering capital expenditures for the new fiscal year, promising to maintain positive cash flow.
On one hand, proving AI commercialization is effective; on the other, controlling spending to avoid reckless cash burn, capital naturally flocked crazily into Microsoft.
The market rally transmitted layer by layer along the AI demand chain, igniting a full surge in downstream storage chips.
SanDisk surged 26% in one day; Micron and Western Digital also rose sharply; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 8%, ending several consecutive days of decline.
But extreme divergence is the most striking feature now, with starkly different fortunes.
Meta plunged nearly 8% in one day due to sharply shrinking cash flow and AI investments failing to deliver returns; Apple also weakened on disappointing earnings.
Capital only chases companies that can monetize AI; targets blindly burning money to expand continue to be abandoned. This is the core recent market stock-picking logic.
🔹 Personal Trading Insights Review 📊
During this rebound, I did not rush to heavily buy storage stocks; looking back, this avoided most risks.
Many retail investors rushed in seeing big green candles, mistaking oversold rebounds for trend reversals.
But essentially, this rally is a technical rebound after panic selling, with the Fed's high interest rate environment unchanged.
On the trading volume leaderboard, semiconductor long ETFs and storage leveraged ETFs saw surging volumes, indicating most capital entering is short-term speculative money; long-term institutions have not massively built bottom positions.
On-chain and capital flow data also confirm: huge funds used the rebound to gradually reduce previously trapped positions at high levels, rather than continuously building new long positions.
After this brief summer-like warm market, how should we distinguish short-term sentiment rallies from true bull market turning points? #美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% #财报观察员：微软云收入破千亿，Meta却指引拉胯——AI故事分化了？ $BTC $SNDK $SKHYNIX The Secret to the U.S. Stock Surge: The Macro "Goldilocks" Set the Stage, Microsoft's Financial Reports Put on the Show
Last night's strong rebound in US stocks was not solely due to data; Microsoft's earnings report exceeding expectations was the real "trigger." Let's break down the triple logic behind this.
Data Review: Inflation cools, economy slows
· Core PCE (Inflation): June month-on-month was only +0.1% (expected +0.2%), year-on-year +3.3% (previous 3.4%), indicating continued easing price pressures.
· Q2 GDP (Economy): Real annualized growth +1.5% (expected +2.1%, previous value 2.1%), indicating weakening economic growth momentum.
Why is the market surging? Triple factor resonance
1. Macro combo approach: Data sends out the "Blonde Girl" signal
· A mild economic slowdown combined with cooling inflation has led the market to bet that the Federal Reserve will not need to raise rates aggressively anymore. This combination of "resilient economy and controlled inflation" has greatly alleviated previous anxiety over "stagflation" and provided a favorable policy outlook for risk assets.
2. Microsoft Financial Report: Injecting the Strongest Confidence "Booster"
· Microsoft's pre-market surged nearly 10% thanks to the impressive growth of Azure cloud business, directly dispelling market doubts about whether its massive AI investment could be monetized. Boosted by this, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also surged more than 5% in pre-market trading, driving a frenzy across the tech sector.
3. Technical rebound after a sharp drop
· On Wednesday (July 29), the Dow just experienced an extreme drop of over 1100 points, and the market itself has accumulated oversold momentum for a rebound. Thursday coincided with a double hit of positive data and earnings reports, making the rebound even fiercer.
Macroeconomic data (cooling inflation + slowing GDP) provided fertile ground for the rise in "policy easing expectations," while Microsoft's earnings report was the direct trigger for the rally. One was "steady" and the other "exciting," jointly contributing to last night's outstanding performance in the U.S. stock market.Strategy posted a loss of $8.2 billion in the second quarter, with Bitcoin holdings peaking at 846,000 coins
Strategy's latest financial report is out, with a massive book loss of $8.2 billion in Q2, mainly due to a fair value loss in BTC holdings; However, the open interest once surged to 846,000 coins, signaling a highly controversial situation.
Let's clarify the key facts first:
Most of these losses are unrealized floating losses under accounting standards and do not mean an actual cash cut and exit. However, the company has already broken its "buy only, not sell" tradition, selling BTC slightly to pay preferred dividends, causing cracks in the narrative of faith.
Reaching the top of holdings means that this round of aggressive holdings has temporarily reached its ceiling, and the pressure from continued capital increases is becoming more pronounced.
Two layers of core market logic:
1. Bullish perspective: Chips locked in long-term
Hundreds of thousands of BTC remain unchanged in the treasury for a long time and will not flow into the market, reducing potential selling pressure in the medium to long term. As long as there is no large-scale, sustained sell-off, it is equivalent to continuously reducing the supply of spot liquidity.
2. Core Bear Risk: Hidden risks lie in the leverage model
The company relies on issuing shares and preferred shares to raise funds and hoard coins, resulting in extremely high annual fixed dividend costs. Once BTC remains sideways or continues to decline for a long time, its cash reserves are depleted to a critical point, and the risk of being forced to sell at a discount will continue to rise.
Let me share my independent judgment: don't simply use "new high position = major positive news" for linear reasoning. In the long run, institutions of this scale continue to heavily hold BTC, indicating mainstream capital recognizes the value of its digital assets, and the institutional incremental narrative remains rooted;
In the short term, two risks need to be watched for: the pace of increasing holdings is likely to slow down, and the story of "extreme hoarding without selling" has been shattered, making market sentiment even more sensitive.
The most important tracking indicators going forward: whether there is sustained large-scale selling, and whether financing channels are tightening.
Practical reminder: Do not rely solely on Strategy's position data to bet on the market one-sidedly. The risks of institutional leverage are variables that many retail investors tend to overlook.Last night, US stocks surged sharply
Today, the most direct map is South Korea and A-shares
On the Korean side
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the first to react
But don't just focus on the high opening
It's even more important to see if you can scale up and hold your ground
If South Korea's storage does not fall back
A-share storage is highly likely to continue being mined by capital
Direction, not index
It's the industry chain
HBM
DRAM
NAND
SSD
Closed beta
Materials
Module
A-shares will focus on memory chips
Storage modules
Advanced packaging
Semiconductor materials
The logic is simple
The US stock market is speculating on a shortage of AI storage
South Korea is speculating on global pricing power
A-shares are trading in mapping and domestic substitution
Today, let's focus on two points
Can South Korea hold steady?
Can A-shares spread from storage to semiconductor equipment and materials?
If it were just a single word higher,
Instead, be cautious about surges and pullbacks
BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP, DOGE also depends on US stock risk appetite
AI hardware never fades
Mainstream coins in the crypto world usually have a good mood
The above content is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice
Investing carries risks; caution is advised when entering the market. $ETH $SNDK $BTC #美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes a new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% after hours. Yesterday, everyone was very focused on the Federal Reserve's rate decision and decided not to raise rates this time, but the internal voting ratio had dropped from 12:0 to 9:3, and some members of the polling committee began to believe that a rate hike was necessary. When the market saw the news that the Fed would not raise rates, the market initially reacted optimistically, with all US stock indices rising, but then worried that Wash's might cause some trouble, the market fell again. It wasn't until half an hour after the resolution was announced that Walsh came out to communicate with the market. The market originally expected him to be hawkish, but in fact, Wash only emphasized the 2% inflation target. Even though there were changes in internal voting, he did not clearly forecast a rate hike in September, so the market initially interpreted it as a short-term dovish. But later, the reporter pressed on: since inflation is considered high and the economy is doing well, why not raise interest rates? At this point, Walsh did not directly answer the reporter's question, but instead emphasized that U.S. Treasury yields had already risen significantly earlier, and the market itself was tightening financial conditions. Walsh's term is really hard for everyone to get used to. During Powell's era, the Fed guided market expectations in the direction they wanted, so Powell managed expectations very well. The entire logical chain is "the Fed guides the market→ the market obeys the Fed's guidance→ and the Fed then judges the economy based on market prices." One of Walsh's very important goals is to break this logical chain. He does not want the market's risk-free rate to follow the Fed's lead, but rather to use the price traded in the market as a variable for the Fed's information input. So he kept communicating with everyone, telling everyone not to do itToday's major rebound in US stocks was undoubtedly thanks to Microsoft.
Microsoft's financial report sends at least three important signals:
(1) Financial reports exceeded expectations across the board, with free cash flow (FCF) reaching $20 billion, directly contradicting previously pessimistic expectations. It turns out that not all cloud computing giants experience cash flow deterioration due to AI investments.
(2) AI is starting to truly make money.
In the past, the market worried that AI would only have stories without profit, but Microsoft has proven with its performance that AI commercialization has entered the realization stage.
(3) The market narrative is back.
When industry leaders prove that AI investments can turn into profits, the valuation logic of the entire technology sector will be regained market recognition.
If tonight's rally continues into tomorrow, U.S. stocks in July are very likely to continue the historical pattern of positive returns.
AI may just be entering its true harvest period. #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading Perception determines height#Earnings Observer: Microsoft Cloud Revenue Surpasses 100 Billion, Meta's Guidance Underperforms—Is the AI Story Diverging? After the 136U transfer last night was pocketed,
Today, my hands are very light
I flipped through the self-selection page
One short is running, one is a demon coin bouncing
Her mindset was completely different from yesterday
Not rushing to find the next prey
Instead, take your time and look at it without rushing
$SNDK Finished my long order yesterday
Today, I took a short position at 1433 on the reverse trade
50x leverage, took 2 units
Deposit of 57.3U
Current price 1379, floating profit 108U
The strong draw is at 1568, with a buffer still in place
The 1-hour chart shows a V-shaped reversal from the bottom of 972
The volume has increased for a while
Currently, there is some stagnation near 1400
This single one acts as a scout
Take profit and push it to 1410 to lock in profits
If it breaks through 1450, let it level on its own
Pulling back at resistance—this 108U is just a free pick
$MMT is the craziest pick today
0.167 pulled to 0.2749
Up 16% in a single day
The candlestick is almost vertically upward in a row
But this kind of fast, explosive pull variety
The 24-hour transaction volume was only 8.2 million
The main force can easily cut a door pin with a single stroke
I absolutely won't chase the 0.255 level
I really want to touch it
Place a limit order between 0.22 and 0.23
Wait for a rally, pullback, and stabilization before making a move
If it doesn't drop, then don't look
Missing the mark is just pretending it never happened
$BTC Grinding at 64,861
1-hour chart MACD weakening, volume shrinking
The large plate remained still
The independent quotes of small notes could flip at any time
Last night's profits had already been locked in
Today's short positions are running, pending orders are waiting
The most common mistake after consecutive profits
It's just that they think they can see everything accurately
Eager to open another order
That pit in the 128U yesterday taught me something
After making money, the hand that wants to place orders again
You have to control it yourself
No chasing highs or opening new positions today
Set stop-losses and let them run on their own
Today's goal has been accomplished$DOGE Recently, a flood of hype and paid posters have been flooding the internet with a single narrative: the super meme cycle is coming, veteran heritage projects are fully retiring, and a long list of sky-high target prices has been released:
$DOGE → $10.20
$SHIBA → $1
$PEPE → $0.8
$WKC → $0.0118
$FLOKI → $1.50
$CREPE → $1.45
$BONK → $1
$LUNC → $1
$FINU → $2.20
$four → $24
$BABYDOGE → $0.002
$OCICAT → $0.00829
⚠️ To get straight to the point: this isn't a forward-looking prediction, but a typical FOMO brainwashing tactic used to attract high-level relay stocks.
1. The Meme market has always existed, but it has never been able to permanently eliminate established core assets
Every crypto bull market erupts in the mid to late stages of a meme frenzy, creating a short-term get-rich-quick effect.
But the funds are only rotating temporarily, not permanently moving. Core stocks like BTC and ETH have massive liquidity, institutional allocation, and a continuous developer ecosystem, allowing large amounts of capital to flow in and out freely; The vast majority of MEME markets have shallow depth, making it impossible for massive funds to hold long-term. After the frenzy, most funds flowed back into core assets.
2. The sky-high target price is seriously disconnected from liquidity reality, only counting the ideal story, not the capital account
To reach the price marked above, Tian Liang needs to continuously add new funds to enter the market.
Many coins have large circulating backs, persistent inflation, and lack stable business revenue; Once the hype fades, buying quickly dries up, making a cliff-like stampede very likely.
Those who call for goals rarely tell you: how much incremental capital is needed to reach the target, how long the overall market environment will last, or when the main players will be selling off.
3. "Reshaping the landscape, the old brands disappearing completely" is an extreme narrative used to amplify anxiety
Truly eliminating a single track, relying on technological innovation, product implementation, and long-term demand;
Currently, most of these MEME brands rely on community sentiment and marketing hype, lacking disruptive innovation.
Consensus comes quickly, but collapses even faster. Sentiment bubbles can rally for weeks to months, making it difficult to support long-term market capitalization across bull and bear markets.
4. A typical tactic of this script: creating a sense of scarcity and crisis
"Almost no one is ready" and "The landscape is about to be reshaped" are meant to create anxiety about missing out, making you afraid of missing out on wealth opportunities and impulsively buying in to buy.
History repeats itself: when a long list of target prices is spread across the internet and the collective advocacy of a new era arrives, the approach of a peak is often getting closer.
💡 Rational advice
You can take a light position to play on short-term sentiment markets, but don't be trapped by long-term sky-high targets or go all-in on heavy positions.
The Meme cycle is essentially a relay game, with early entrants hoping for newcomers to carry the sedan chair.
The peak of popularity is often the risk turning point.
Virtual currencies are extremely volatile, with significant losses or even the risk of losing their principal; This article is only an objective logical summary and does not constitute any investment advice.GRVT isn't just about adding another trading pair this time; what really deserves attention is that OKX Wallet has put it into Boost's X Launch. Ordinary users tend to see these events as short-term excitement of "claim and leave," but veteran players look at one more layer: why projects are willing to tie startup traffic, transaction behavior, and wallet entry points together. OKX Wallet's announcement was straightforward: Boost - X Launch: GRVT will go live on July 30, 2026, with a total reward of 300,000 USDT. Registration is open from July 31, 16:00 to August 1, 16:00 (UTC+8), and reward collection is on August 1, 18:00 (UTC+8). The snapshot period runs from July 21 to July 30. In other words, this isn't a last-minute slap or candy, but rather a combination of actual usage and trading behavior from the previous period. This is crucial. Boost-type mechanisms tend to be biased if you only look at the reward amount; What matters more is what kind of users it filters out. GRVT itself is about hybrid on-chain trading scenarios. The project officially positioned $GRVT as the key to ecosystem membership, focusing on modules like trading, investing, and paying to provide benefits. Its goal is not to focus solely on a single token narrative, but to make "simultaneous trading, earning profits, and using as margin within a single balance" the main product line. SoHa! Dear readers, I just turned a deck of playing cards backstage into a white dove, but honestly, that was just a small trick. What really makes my heart race is this $HYPE card in front of me—it's being secretly swapped out by the bookmaker from the sleeve.
This recent small rebound, with a 3.69% increase, is seen by viewers as a signal of the "return of the bull market." But in the eyes of me, a fraudster magician, this is merely a prelude to a trick. Look, the RSI has surged to 65.7 in the short term, and the short-term price of the Bollinger Bands is already at 95% high—how is this a breakout? This is clearly the dealer using the pump to distract you, making you focus on the "value" card, while ignoring that his other hand is pushing the chips into the abyss.
Remember my professional rule: when everyone is staring at the same spotlight, there must be something hidden behind that light.
Now, the rhythm of this $HYPE performance is very clear. The market makers first gave a gentle push, causing the price to fluctuate around 54.5, pretending to hold a "bottom." But I smelled the scorching of the hole cards—truly good cards never appear repeatedly on stage; only those useless cards ready to be swapped attract your attention with flashy moves. Looking at the long-term Bollinger Bands, prices are still below the midband, with 74% of positions more like halftime breaks than final whistles. Those retail investors who shouted "buy" at the sight of the indicators seemed to be cheering from the audience, unaware that the scarf in the magician's hand had already been replaced with handcuffs.
My usual approach has never been to believe in 'mass wisdom.' What they are chasing now is that 2.4% virtual unrealized gain. But for me, the real harvest is always hidden in seemingly harmless fluctuations. So my trading plan was straightforward: wait until it bounces back to that flashy multi-tier stage.
Entry: $57.28 (+2.4% from current price). Around there, I would quietly post a short order like a card change. Target 1: $51.57 (-7.8%), the first act closing line of this round. Target 2: $52.92 (-5.4%), second insurance. Stop Loss: $63.19 (+13.0%). If the dealer really puts the wrong item, they'd rather cut off their right hand than let the trick slip through.
Don't ask me why I'm so sure. But after staying in this line for a long time, I've learned a little—when everyone is looking at the cards, true value only disappears with the magician's disappearance.PCE Implementation: The panic over three rate hikes has been dampened by a single piece of data
After a week of anticipation, the June PCE has finally been released. The result is neither surprising nor surprising—overall as expected, with core products cooling month-on-month beyond expectations, giving BTC and ETH a breather for the crypto market.
Preliminary data: overall PCE year-on-year was 3.7%, matching expectations and sharply falling from the previous value of 4.1%; Month-on-month, it turned negative for the first time in nearly six years, falling 0.1%. Core PCE hit the expected 3.3% year-on-year, but rose only 0.1% month-on-month, marking the smallest increase since March 2025 and much better than the market expectation of 0.2%.
To be honest, once the data came out, half of those who shouted "a rate hike in September" quieted down halfway.
With the three FOMC opposing votes, the probability of a rate hike within the year jumped from 20% to 55%, and the entire internet was buzzing about a "rate hike cycle restarting"; As a result, after one PCE was issued, the decline in energy prices dragged down overall inflation, and core inflation finally slowed down, causing rate hike expectations to drop sharply on the spot.
For BTC and ETH, the biggest significance of this data is that it mitigates the risk of an "immediate rate hike in September."
But don't get too excited too soon; this is not a turn signal at all.
First, this inflation decline is mainly due to the plunge in oil prices. The temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran is a sporadic factor, not an endogenous cooling; Second, core PCE year-on-year was 3.3%, still far from the Fed's 2% target, and the stickiness to service inflation remains—far from a point where we can relax.
Simply put, it's shifting from "high probability of rate hikes" back to "let's see if we raise rates," and the gap between rate cuts is even greater.
The funniest part is still market sentiment:
Yesterday: Three votes = rate hike restart = stock and crypto hit
Today: Data slightly better = rate hike pause = broad rebound
Faces change faster than flipping a page; in the end, it's still emotions that influence the market; fundamentals haven't changed much in half a month.
Operational Advice:
Strong resistance for $BTC is at 67,000, $ETH at 2050. If you can't break through, you'll likely have to come back and grind again.
The macro alarm is only temporarily lifted, not completely lifted. Don't forget the pain just because the wound is healed.
To sum up: the PCE didn't send ammunition to the hawks, nor did it give the bulls a big gift—just a slightly neutral and slightly moderate data. The rate hike warning has been temporarily lifted, but the tone of maintaining high interest rates for longer has not changed at all.
Don't call a bull market with a single bullish candle, and don't call for a crash with a single bearish candle; follow the data, not sentiment.
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight $BTC Spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $32.1 million on July 29, ending three consecutive trading days of net outflows.
The turnover is true, but the phrase "full institutional return" is not accurate.
IBIT saw $89.8 million in inflows, FBTC $43.1 million in outflows, and $14.6 million in ARKB outflows. In other words, the reason the total volume is positive mainly relies on a single product to offset outflows from other funds.
The positive factor is that liquidity conditions have not continued to deteriorate.
The negative factor is that net inflows are small and unevenly distributed.
The criteria for judgment should be whether the market can turn positive in the following trading days and whether inflows can spread to more products, rather than just looking at the total for one day.$SNDK Analysis of the Korean storage sector (benchmarked to SanDisk SNDK) opening higher but then pulling back
⚠️ Risk warning: Market analysis is only and does not constitute investment advice. In Korea, leading storage companies like Samsung and SK Hynix followed the overnight US stock SNDK linkage; Coupled with the official implementation of the new 7-31 leveraged ETF regulations, the Asia-Pacific market opened high and plunged rapidly, reflecting overnight sentiment spillover from the U.S. stock market + local profit-taking + policy constraints resonating with the market.
Current market status
Overnight, the post-hours surge in U.S. stocks like SanDisk drove Korean storage collection auctions to open higher and surge; After a brief surge at the open, bullish momentum quickly faded, with intraday pullbacks and a sharp rebound at the close.
1. Market Essence: The strong opening of overnight US stocks with a strong recovery sentiment is not a sign of new internal positive news in the Korean session; The morning rally was driven by overnight sentiment, and after the rally, domestic short-term profit-taking was concentrated and realized.
2. Key Policy Background: On July 31, new regulations for Korean stock leveraged ETFs were officially implemented, raising the cash margin for individual stock leveraged ETFs to 30 million KRW, raising the threshold for retail investors to speculate. This directly limited the amount of leveraged incremental funds, and the lack of sustained leveraged buying in the morning session led to a relay rally.
3. Cross-market linkage: Korean storage follows US stocks with SNDK, but the elasticity logic is different: US stocks are short covering; The Korean session has long held onto chips early, and once it surges, selling pressure to break even will immediately emerge.
4. Event window: The global storage sector awaits August 5 earnings from US stocks SanDisk and Micron. Korean stock institutions are unwilling to chase rallies before the earnings report and choose to surge, reducing positions and observing.
5. Macroeconomic constraints have not been lifted: Although US inflation has cooled, the market still holds the possibility of a rate hike in September. Storage is a high-β cyclical sector, and funds are reluctant to continue one-sided long positions.
The core driver is the four-layer rise and pullback
(1) Trading Side: Overnight Positive News "Buy Expectations, Cash in in Early Trading"
Overnight, US stocks (SNDK) rebounded violently, and the Asia-Pacific market opened with a one-time price-in of the positive news; With no new incremental news, after the rally, short-term bottom-fishing floating profits and previously trapped uneven positions were concentrated selling, directly suppressing the uptrend.
(2) The new leveraged regulations in Korean stocks took effect, resulting in a lack of speculative buying
With the new regulations taking effect, the entry threshold for individual stock leveraged ETFs has been raised, retail investors' leveraged incremental funds have shrunk sharply, and in the early session, a lack of leveraged funds has driven the market higher; A large part of the surges in Korean stock storage stocks in the past relied heavily on leveraged ETF funds. After policy tightening, the rally could easily lose momentum.
(3) Cross-market chip divergence
US stocks are like short closing and short pressing; Korean stocks Samsung and SK Hynix have fallen even deeper earlier, with more trapped investors piling up. Similarly, in the US market, short positions are being closed, while in the Korean market, a large number of trapped positions are waiting to exit after a rally. Once the price rises, selling pressure is immediately released.
(4) Risk control behaviors before financial reporting
With the August 5th financial report approaching, institutions are reluctant to heavily buy up positions during the window period, tending to reduce positions on rallies to avoid a black swan event where earnings fall short of expectations.
Current core risks
1. The Korean session surged and then retreated, which will put emotional pressure on the US SNDK tonight; The weakening of the Asia-Pacific market can easily suppress the opening sentiment of the US market.
2. The sector has entered an overbought zone in the short term, with strong profit-taking, and volatility will intensify significantly.
3. There are also alternative policies to follow the new leverage regulations (a plan to cap personal leveraged investment at 20%), and policy expectations remain above the storage sector.
4. On August 5, if the NAND guidance falls short of expectations, the global storage sector will experience a pullback with "buy expectations and sell facts."
Key Price Levels (Korean stock SK Hynix, benchmarked against SNDK)
✅ Support
1.24-1.26 million KRW, short-term lifeline, holding and maintaining a consolidating recovery;
Effectively breaking below 1.24 million, this round of Asia-Pacific recovery has ended, retesting previous lows.
⛔ Pressure
1.38-1.42 million KRW, the top resistance is the early session rally testing the level;
Only after volume volume stabilized at 1.42 million did it open up further upside potential.
Three scenario simulations
Scenario (1) Restoration and continuation (low probability)
The Korean session held support at 1.24-1.26 million, while in the US session, SNDK continued to strengthen with increased volume during the main trading session in the evening, driving another recovery in Korean stocks the next day.
Premise: The US stock market is confirmed with increased volume; only the after-hours impulse is invalid.
Scenario (2): High-level range oscillation (benchmark highest probability)
Korean stocks fluctuated between 1.26 million and 1.42 million KRW, digesting chips while awaiting guidance from US earnings reports on August 5. Early rallies should be considered a window to reduce positions and not suitable for chasing highs.
Scenario (3): Repair failure, second weakening
In the evening, SNDK saw gains give back in the US session, and combined with pessimistic earnings expectations, Korean stocks fell below the 1.24 million support and returned to weakness.
Key points for practical operation
1. The Korean stock market surged and then fell in early trading, indicating that Asia-Pacific funds are already diverging. You can't simply bet on the U.S. stocks' post-hours rally to bet on Asia-Pacific markets opening high and rising the next day.
2. With the new leveraged ETF regulations taking effect, the speculative power of Korean stock stocks has been weakened, causing changes in volatility structure. Without leverage and a frenzy of relays, the sustainability of a big rally will decline.
3. Watershed: SK Hynix holds above 1.42 million, indicating the continuation of the Asia-Pacific recovery rally; Falling below 1.24 million, this round of rebound has ended.
4. Key Observation Point: The August 5 U.S. storage financial report will determine the medium-term direction of the global storage sector."July 31 Morning Trading Session Overview"
✨ After a one-day surge, can the early session continue its rally and firmly maintain the bulls' advantage?
🔹 The overall market size is $$MU
The Nasdaq and S&P opened slightly higher and continued to rise by momentum, with overall sentiment showing a positive recovery.
The previous six-day decline was directly interrupted by a strong bullish candle in the storage sector $SKHYNIX
The market relied on two major positive factors: a slight cooling of inflation and Microsoft's better-than-expected earnings.
However, sector fragmentation and differentiation are very obvious, and there has not been a broad-based bull market.
🔹 Core Storage Track | SanDisk SNDK📊
The session opened slightly higher and surged, reaching an intraday high of $1,285.
It surged 25.99% in a single day, closing at $1,279.96.
Throughout the day, trading volume surged dramatically, with a turnover rate approaching 17%, and shares trading at high levels were highly traded.
Driving forces: Samsung's epic Q2 earnings report + AI storage shortage + concentrated short selling resonating in triple conditions.
Short-term bullish momentum has fully unleashed all at once, and the previously trapped selling pressure above is gradually emerging.
🔹 Details 📈 of the divergence between gains and losses across the entire sector
The Philadelphia semiconductor index surged over 8%, becoming the strongest main track of the entire session.
Micron Technology surged 18.22%, while Western Digital and Seagate also surged around 15%.
AMD and Intel both rose over 12%, with semiconductor equipment rising across the board.
Meanwhile, Meta plunged nearly 8%, and Apple closed slightly lower, with weak stocks continuing to drag down the index.
Capital is concentrated in oversold storage chips, avoiding social consumer tech stocks with weak earnings.
🔹 Interpretation 💡 of capital and market outlook rhythm
This round of rebound is a technical correction after a deep overselling, not a complete cycle reversal.
Long-term institutions have not significantly expanded their positions, focusing mainly on short-term arbitrage and short closing funds.
After a morning rally, it is highly likely to enter a high-level phase of stagnation and stagnation in the afternoon.
Chasing rallies at high levels offers extremely poor cost-effectiveness, and it's easy for market fluctuations to wear down your principal.
Can the single-day sentiment-driven rally really completely change the mid-term downward trend of US stocks?
$SNDK
#美联储三票主张加息, PCE becomes a new highlight tonight. #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours trading. #财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, but Meta's guidance is disappointing—Is the AI story diverging? In March 2024, Ethereum was $4,100, Bitcoin $73,000; In December 2024, Ethereum was $4,100, Bitcoin $110,000. Two bull market peaks, ETH stuck at 4100? What is happening behind all this?
🔍 For the crypto market to reach new highs, three conditions are usually required: First, there must be a strong new narrative to take the lead, and it must be validated by the market; Second, the shakeout must be thorough enough, and the price correction should be deep enough; Third, there is no large-scale token unlock.
📉 ETH met the latter two criteria in 2024, but its biggest shortcoming is the "lack of new stories." In March, the main narrative was that the L2 boom would drive ETH deflation. And what happened? L2s have not brought the expected prosperity—Solana is already good enough in terms of performance and fees. If the narrative isn't proven, the price naturally can't rise.
📊 By December, even the narrative had been lost, leaving it completely blank. Even if ETFs exist, institutions cannot attract interest. After the Dencun upgrade, ETH's deflationary story completely collapsed: daily burn volume dropped from thousands to 50-70 tokens, and ETH returned to moderate inflation; L1 revenue plummeted from over $600 million in March to $120 million in May, while L2 absorbed 95%-99% of transaction fees. Old stories are disproven, new stories don't continue, and ETH can only stand still.
🚀 In contrast, Solana's performance during the same period was extremely thorough — from a 2021 high of $260 to a 2022 low of $8.13, a 97% decline; No large unlock (mass unlock in 2025); The strongest new narrative: The meme coin cycle, and the formation of a monopoly. As a result, SOL climbed from $8 all the way to its all-time high of $290 in January 2025.
💡 Any token rise needs to be driven by a narrative—this is the underlying logic of a bull market. Back to the present, RWA is the only narrative that has grown against the trend during a bear market, and it is also the direction where traditional finance is willing to invest real money. The leaders are giants like Black Rock, Franklin, Circle, Ondo, and WisdomTree.
🔑 Targets that can capture the RWA narrative: ETH, top-tier DeFi, BNB. They currently basically meet three main principles: shakeout in place (with a general pullback of about 70%); No large unlocks (DeFi tokens like UNI and AAVE have long been fully circulated); There is a new narrative relay (RWA+ institutions entering). This is the logical anchor for the next stage.$SNDK US storage stocks rebound across the board in pre-market, panic sentiment quickly recovers
In the US pre-market, storage stocks including Micron Technology, SanDisk, and $SKHYNIX Hynix collectively turned positive after previously dropping 3%-4%; Seagate rose 4.6%, Western Digital rose 2.2%.
The earlier sector plunge was due to market concerns about the storage cycle peaking and SK Hynix's earnings missing expectations, which was a short-term emotional sell-off.
Core support remains unshaken: AI computing power drives a persistent supply-demand gap in high-end HBM memory, with original manufacturers locking in downstream demand through long-term orders, showing strong fundamental resilience; the negative factors have been fully priced in.
Short-term sector volatility still exists; going forward, focus will be on tracking the pace of storage contract price increases in Q3 and the implementation of AI capital expenditures. The recovery in overseas giants' stocks is also expected to transmit to the A-share storage industry chain. #微软逆势下调资本开支，盘后涨8.5% Looking at Coinbase's latest Q2 financial report, the most common mistake is to directly equate "total revenue decline quarter-over-quarter" with "all platform business contracting simultaneously."
Let's first look at the confirmed data. Coinbase disclosed on July 30: For Q2 ending June 30, total revenue was $1.22 billion, down 14% quarter-on-quarter; Trading revenue was $599 million, down 21% quarter-on-quarter; Subscription and service revenue was $555 million, accounting for 48% of net income. According to company materials, the overall crypto spot market trading volume by definition fell 25% month-on-month. Decrypt's independent report also confirmed weakening revenue, net losses, and trading activity for the quarter.
The mechanism is that platform revenue does not come solely from spot transaction fees. Trading revenue will fluctuate with transaction activity; Subscriptions and services include businesses that are not fully synchronized with transaction volume. An increased share of the latter does not eliminate market cycles, but it does mean total revenue no longer corresponds directly to fluctuations in a single spot market.
A misunderstanding to avoid is: if the decline in trading revenue is less than the drop in market spot trading volume, it does not mean the platform has escaped the cycle, nor does it prove the future direction of demand for any asset or industry. Revenue, trading volume, and market share are different perspectives and must be viewed separately.
Those affected are those who use platform data to judge industries: looking only at total revenue will overlook business structure; Looking only at spot trading can overlook the contributions of derivatives, subscriptions, and services. The company also stated that it forecasts contract counts and revenue in the market to grow more than threefold month-on-month, but whether this growth can be sustained still requires further quarter verification.
Next, verifiable signals: changes in spot and derivatives volume, the proportion of subscriptions and services, forecasted market revenue, and whether these metrics are comparable across regions and products.
If you could only choose one metric to assess the resilience of a comprehensive platform's business, would you choose revenue structure, transaction volume, or active users and retention? Why?Storage surged today. After checking, it seems somewhat related to Microsoft's earnings report. Is the bull market back?
The biggest market concern before was "cloud providers' AI capital expenditure peaking and demand slowing down." Microsoft's earnings report directly dispelled this disagreement; combined with AI scenarios where storage is no longer a supporting role but a bottleneck for computing power demand, capital is concentrating on attacking the storage sector.
From the earnings report:
1. Azure growth far exceeded expectations (the core trigger)
Azure cloud revenue increased by 43% year-over-year (expected 39.6%), and the guidance for the next quarter continues to accelerate to 45%; annual Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion.
This means: enterprise AI payments are truly landing (Copilot paying users exceeded 30 million), not just burning money to hoard hardware. Continuous high growth in cloud business = continuous expansion of AI data centers, with sustained upstream hardware demand.
2. Capital expenditure expectations realized, demand has not slowed
The market previously panicked over Microsoft's capital expenditure cutbacks, fearing infrastructure expansion would slow.
Although the full-year guidance was slightly lowered compared to previous estimates, the expenditure scale remains high with significant year-over-year growth; meanwhile, management clearly stated: GPU and storage capacity continue to be in short supply, and customer demand exceeds current production capacity.
Additionally, Microsoft has unexecuted long-term data center leases worth hundreds of billions, locking in hardware purchases for the coming years.
3. AI agents bring new storage increments
The earnings call emphasized the popularization of AI agents. Agents require long-term memory and retrieval of massive business data. Compared to traditional large model inference, data read/write and persistent storage demands have stepped up again, opening long-term storage space.$CORE Interpretation of the latest official DAO ecosystem announcement: A long-standing vision lacks substantial tangible results
Official original article summary
The ecosystem focuses on BTCFi's continuous expansion and advances the "Build on Core" developer incentive program;
Continuously optimize infrastructure security, performance, and developer experience throughout the year;
At the market level, follow the overall Bitcoin market sentiment and pay attention to ecosystem DApps and staking activities.
Peel aside the rhetoric and face the reality gap head-on
1. Developer support, hackathons, and ecosystem incentives are standard PR operations for all public blockchains. Continuous recruitment does not mean ecological prosperity. Currently, Colend liquidity is drying up, Molten DEX is almost stagnant, NFTs, perpetual contracts and other sectors are exiting the market, and on-chain real trading volume and protocol revenue have been sluggish for a long time.
2. Network infrastructure iteration is a routine operation and maintenance upgrade, a long-term foundational work, not a major positive factor that can trigger a market rally, making it unlikely to bring about a trend reversal at the capital level.
3. Core BTCFi narrative still largely delayed: flagship lstBTC shelved due to cooperation dispute; SatPay/BTCPay has long been stuck in the testing phase, with no compliance licenses or genuine merchant transactions; At the beginning of the year, it promoted fee buybacks, and so far, on-chain buyback records have been zero.
4. "Following BTC sentiment" is a double-edged sword. The short-term impulse brought by the market recovery, combined with fixed order book quantitative inversion and continuously unlocking zero-cost chips, often serves as a window to attract bullish distribution, not as a starting point for new market movements.
Objective summary
The entire announcement is a routine periodic public relations brief, without breaking news such as newly launched products, major institutional collaborations, or substantial commercial revenue.
The Bitcoin framework still follows the same BTCFi and developer ecosystem narrative as seen in previous years, deliberately avoiding core issues such as past promise fulfillment, bleak on-chain data, and ongoing selling pressure.
Positive narratives are easily amplified by community hype to create FOMO, so don't blindly chase the rally; Short-term rebounds should be warned against bullish selling.
Virtual currencies carry extremely high risks, and there is a risk of principal being lost to zero. This article is only for objective information review and does not constitute any investment advice.#SpaceX获$1.6B美军合同，股价暴跌引两派争议
$1.6 Billion Military Contract for SpaceX Sparks Two Camps of Controversy Over Stock Plunge
A $1.6 billion big order can’t even move the needle—Is SpaceX really a “Good Company, Bad Stock”?
Last night, SpaceX secured a $1.6 billion contract from the U.S. Space Force, covering 18 Falcon 9 launches, continuing through 2027.
And the result? After-hours trading saw only a 0.31% increase. 0.31%.
A month ago, this was the hottest stock in the universe. IPO at $135 on June 12, the largest ever. By the third day, it surged to $225.64, with a market cap over $2.6 trillion. Now? Around $112. A 52% drop from the peak, wiping out $1.2 trillion in market value—equivalent to losing an entire Tesla.
A $1.6 billion order barely made a splash. The two camps are in an uproar.
The bulls say: You don’t understand this company at all. Starlink’s 2025 revenue is projected at $11.4 billion, operating profit $4.4 billion. Military orders keep coming—just signed $4.16 billion in May, now adding $1.6 billion, with Pentagon orders exceeding $7 billion this year alone. The only company worldwide with reusable rockets. Morgan Stanley’s target price is $300, Goldman Sachs $205. Good company, right?
The bears say: This company isn’t worth that much. A net loss of $4.9 billion projected for 2025, and a single quarter loss of $4.276 billion in Q1 2026, nearly matching last year’s full-year loss. IPO valuation at $1.77 trillion, equivalent to a 95x price-to-sales ratio. Wall Street’s big short Michael Burry bluntly said: “Not even worth $1 trillion.” Veteran investors are harsher: “Fair value is only $30 per share.” $30. Now at $112, it still needs to drop 72%.
Short sellers have already bet $25 billion, accounting for 32% of the float. Three weeks ago, this was only 5% to 7%. Shorts are aggressively adding positions.
But the real bombshell is August 6.
The first batch of 911.5 million shares will be unlocked. At the current price, worth over $100 billion. By year-end, the float will surge from 639 million to 5.33 billion shares—more than a sevenfold increase. Insiders have held on for so long; do you think they’ll hold or sell?
Even worse: 29% of the float is in short sellers’ hands. When the unlocked shares hit the market, what will shorts do? Keep adding and pushing the price down.
So back to the question: Is this a good company being unfairly punished, or is the valuation just too high?
My answer is—both. But the premise of “unfairly punished” is that it’s been fully punished first. The $1.6 billion contract is positive, but compared to the $100 billion unlocking—it’s a drop in the bucket.
Good company, no doubt. But a good company also needs a good price.
Anyway, I’m waiting until after August 6 to reassess. Don’t fight against a $100 billion unlocking.
Purely my personal speculation, not financial advice.
$BTC $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU The core themes of global markets on July 31 were "risk appetite recovery after the Fed decision" and "a retaliatory rebound in the memory chip sector":
Cryptocurrencies collectively rebounded after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. BTC broke through $64,000 (+1.54%), ETH climbed above $1,920 (+1.18%), and SOL rose 1.78%. However, HYPE is still struggling near $55, with the $52 neckline precarious.
The U.S. storage chip sector staged an epic rebound—SanDisk surged 26%, Micron rose 18%, and SK Hynix ADR rose 17%. Microsoft's earnings beating expectations were a direct catalyst, while the oversold rebound was the internal driver. However, the stock price remains well below previous highs, and the August earnings season will determine the sustainability of the rebound.
The Korean stock market rebounded strongly on Samsung Electronics' historic earnings report (profits soaring 18-fold), with the KOSPI rising over 3% to 8,471 points. However, SK Hynix still fell 5.64%, with the high beta characteristics of its pure storage business causing a more sharp correction. The divergence between Samsung and SK Hynix reflects the market's differentiated pricing of the semiconductor cycle peaking.
Crude oil closed lower in the $83-89 range (WTI -1.03%, Brent -1.88%), with geopolitical risks and supply factors clashing. Gold surged strongly following the Federal Reserve's decision, with COMEX gold up 1.68% to $4,166 per ounce, reflecting a weaker dollar, release of interest rate hike risks, and geopolitical risk aversion.
Key catalysts next week: SpaceX's first earnings report (August 4), SanDisk's earnings report (August 5), Brent crude oil futures expiration, and ongoing developments in the US-Iran situation. #美光暴跌后: Is it at the bottom or halfway up the mountain? AI Volatility Check: Cloud AI is stable, but memory remains under pressure
$QQQ Trading range is the 1.4% intraday high to low, currently rebounding to an intraday high near $676, while $SPY is approaching the intraday high of $741. This divergence may still be related to pressure on domestic Chinese inventory and semiconductor equipment, while cloud AI remained relatively strong on the first day of the July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
$SOXX After experiencing a 2.9% intraday high to low drop, it remains in the intraday weak zone of $491. $MU was quoted at $817, $SNDK at $1,091, $WDC at $440, $AMD at $455, all rebounding from their lows but still well below the opening price. $SNDK fell 9.6% from the opening to the low, and $WDC dropped 8.2%.
$QQQ rebounded 1.3% from the low, but the semiconductor and memory sectors have yet to recover similarly significant losses.#NvidiaGoogleBackAI
The moment I reached into the bronze cauldron, what I felt was not the lingering warmth of the ancients, but the chain of credit debt that remains hot three thousand years later.
In the countless clay tablets of Sargon the Great I have read and the history of ancient Rome's decline, the signs on the eve of civilization's collapse have always been strikingly consistent: when rulers begin to use future taxes to stake illusory miracles, the illusion of prosperity reaches its peak. Right now, the giants of Silicon Valley are staging an epic suspense drama that is exactly the same.
Jensen Huang and Masayoshi Son attempted to carve a 10GW computing power spectacle into the plains of Ohio, with a total project cost crossing the $500 billion barrier. To ensure OpenAI can confidently lease this massive silicon-based 'totem], Nvidia even stepped in personally, providing up to $250 billion in debt guarantees. Note: this massive endorsement only covers real estate and construction debt, but deliberately excludes its own chips—isn't this just the ancient Egyptian pharaoh's strategy when building pyramids: using treasury credit to cover stone shipping costs, while keeping the core sacred golden top for high-priced private sales?
Meanwhile, on the other side of the valley, Google is quietly tightening its tomb defenses. To support allies like Anthropic and promote custom chips from non-NVIDIA camps, Google has dramatically raised the default limit for third-party data centers from $6.5 billion to $44 billion. This is by no means charity, but rather a secret 'mechanism' set up deep within his own underground treasury when facing overwhelming enemies. Whenever tenants collapse or go bankrupt, this chain of hammers is triggered, using massive balance sheets to keep competitors out of the moat.
This Great Wall of computing power, built by leveraging balance sheets and collateralizing credit, from a financial archaeological perspective, closely resembles the depreciating silver dinar coins of late Rome. As giants trap tens or hundreds of billions in debt in computing power leases for the coming years, the underlying hardware and network architecture represented by the US token $XAVGO are being pushed into the spotlight as the cornerstone of this massive minting movement. The flood of market funds into the $XAVGO is essentially a gamble on whether the massive debt guarantees poured by these giants will eventually be realized as real cash flow, or will it become another pile of unfulfilled bad credit debts.
History has long written the answer beneath the yellow sand: the alternation of bulls and bears follows a fateful rhythm, rhyming with exactly the same rhyme. Today, this group of high-tech tomb raiders is frantically mining future liquidity, trying to build an unbreakable computing empire before the bubble bursts. But when leverage breaks and credit collapses, these hundreds of billions of dollars in credit certificates will ultimately be nothing more than a page of a "tombstone" sleeping in the digital wilderness.#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion
Bitcoin and Nasdaq have indeed not been moving together much recently.
Vetle Lunde, head of K33 Research, released a report last week saying that the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq has fallen to its lowest point in years. This was especially evident in early July, when the Nasdaq rose all the way while BTC was flat and sideways, with both sides moving in their own ways.
The specific numbers speak for themselves. By early 2026, the 30-day rolling correlation performance for both will reach around 0.8, the highest in four years. But in recent months, the correlation has been dropping steadily, at one point dropping to -0.2, between 0.4 and 0.7 in 2021 and 2022, and at the end of 2022, when volatility peaked, it even surged to 0.85. This shift from highly bound to mild negative correlation is indeed rare.
The most obvious was on July 24. The Big Seven US stocks fell 4.8% in a single day, wiping out nearly 800 billion in market value. According to the script over the past few months, BTC should have crashed as well, but that day BTC hovered near 65,400, with a decline of less than 1%. The Nasdaq fell 1.9% that day, while BTC rose 3% on the weekly chart. With drops and steady falls, the signals of decoupling are indeed obvious.
Several factors are at work behind this.
First, BTC's pricing logic is shifting from "macro-driven" to "multidimensional factor resonance." After ETFs opened, institutional capital flows and on-chain data are becoming new key variables. In the past, when the FOMC decision was released, stocks and cryptocurrencies would either fall or rise simultaneously; now this linkage is weakening.
Second, BTC has almost entirely followed semiconductors over the past month, being treated as a proxy asset for the AI capital cycle. Changes in AI spending expectations have directly affected BTC's short-term trend. But on July 24th, AI trading crashed, and BTC didn't follow.
Third, BTC's own narrative is also changing. Fairlead strategist Katie Stockton said that the breakdown of correlation with the Nasdaq is actually a positive sign. Fairlead's analysis suggests that Bitcoin is showing signs of a long-term downward exhaustion. In other words, not following the decline is itself a form of resilience.
But whether this is truly a decoupling or just a temporary pause, it's too early to draw conclusions. Peter Schiff put it even more bluntly: when the Nasdaq falls, BTC will also fall. Although this statement is harsh, historical experience is indeed true. Standard Chartered analysts believe the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq is around 0.5, much lower than 0.8, but not entirely unrelated.
Additionally, some analyses point out that BTC correlates as much as 87% with global liquidity, and the Nasdaq even higher at 97%. Both are driven by liquidity conditions. If liquidity tightens, both may still fall together. Arthur Hayes also mentioned that the divergence between BTC and the Nasdaq may signal dollar liquidity risks.
Ultimately, BTC has been stuck in the 62,000 to 65,000 range for over a month. Volatility is near multi-year lows. Low volatility combined with sideways movement weakened BTC's response to macro events. K33's judgment is that if this low correlation persists, BTC's price discovery mechanism will return more to its fundamentals—network activity, adoption rate, and regulatory progress.
Whether BTC can truly decouple may still depend on a few more quarters. But one thing is certain—it is slowly shifting from being a "shadow of the Nasdaq" to becoming "its own asset." This process won't be smooth, but the direction seems to have begun.The VIX fear index plunged 17.29% in a single day, the S&P gained 1.68%, and the Nasdaq surged 3.30%. Going long on semiconductor ETFs $SOXL saw turnover soar to 410 million, soaring 33.9%. The market swallowed all pessimism in one bite, and the switch happened overnight. Outline - 🔍 1. Panic Recedes, Who Is Swimming Naked? - ⚔️ 2. Yen Surge, Macro Landscape Quietly Shifting - 📈 3. Crypto Rallies Weaken, Focus Is on Chips, Not Coins - 💡 4. Survival Under Greed Today's Snapshot $BTC 64,805, +1.34% $ETH 1,924, +0.77% $QQQ +3.30%, $SPY +1.68% $DXY +0.10%, $GLD +1.64% $IBIT +1.94% VIX 17.08, -17.29% US Crude Oil (USO) 127.48, -1.42% Dow 52,208.06, +1.19% 1. Panic Ebbing—Who's Swimming Naked? 🔍 The VIX evaporated nearly 20% in one day, which is no longer a correction but a trampling reversal of sentiment. The market shifted from "fearing recession" to "rushing to catch a rebound." Behind the $QQQ +3.30% rise was a triple long semiconductor ETF like $SOXL, which soared 33.9%, with trading volume ranking among the hottest in the market. Chips-mapped tokens like $MU, $SKHYNIX, and $SNDK all surged in massive volume, indicating that hot money is unabashedly surging inI, the mold guy, have stood up!
Both trades were profitable yesterday: BEAT short trades yielded 39% profit, and SKHYNIX long trades earned 23%.
My family's opposition and your ridicule couldn't stop me from making a solo comeback.
After quitting, I took a flat-sided rental the second day, and today I started my first deal; Short MMT!
The second day of lying flat, no need to get up early to catch the bus, no need to listen to the roar of machines, no need to look at the supervisor's face.
Open your account, and the U will be credited.
My family's persuasion, your persuasion, I know it's all for my own good. But I didn't listen to a single word.
"The great roc rises with the wind in a single day, soaring ninety thousand miles upward." No matter how much you say, it's useless; achieving results is better than anything else.
Today, I set my sights on $MMT.
This coin pulled from 0.185 to 0.256 before pulling back, closing with a long upper shadow on the daily chart—a typical case of selling after a rally.
On-chain data shows that whales have just transferred 2.1 million tokens to exchanges, valued at 525,000 USD, with a cost around 0.19, and unrealized gains exceeding 30%.
Another address transferred out 1.3 million coins in three transactions within five minutes, suspected of off-exchange selling.
Even more disgusting, the largest position address placed consecutive sell orders in the 0.25-0.26 range, with three cancellations cumulatively—a classic case of fake pallets.
On August 4, there are still 12.53 million MMT to be unlocked, valued at about $2.26 million.
The total supply is 1 billion tokens, with only 200 million currently in circulation, 80% still locked.
For these kinds of altcoins, just push them up and short them.
Short at 0.248-0.252, stop loss at 0.258, target 0.235-0.22.
Others laugh at me for being too crazy, I laugh at them for not seeing through things. No sight of the tombs of the heroes of the Five Tombs; without flowers or wine, I hoe the fields to cultivate the fields.
If this order makes a profit, I'll head straight to Haidilao tonight!
$SKHYNIX
$BEAT
#美联储三票主张加息, tonight's PCE is a new highlight (1) BTC (Bitcoin) Current Trends: Bitcoin continued its rebound momentum on the last trading day of July. As of the Asian session on July 31, Bitcoin was trading at around $64,763, up about 1.54% in the past 24 hours. Previously, at 5:08 a.m. Beijing time, Bitcoin briefly fell to a low of $63,269, then continued to rise, forming a V-shaped reversal. In the past 24 hours, over 90,000 people worldwide experienced liquidation. In the South Korean market, Bitcoin was quoted at 917,900 won on Upbit, up 0.39% from the previous day, but the market still recorded a -2.05% "reverse kimchi premium," indicating that the Korean market is still at a discount to global prices. Driver: Federal Reserve rate decision implemented—rates unchanged but internal divisions deepen. In the early hours of July 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive time holding it unchanged. But the vote was 9 to 3, with three officials—Hamack, Kashkari, and Logan—all advocating for a 25 basis point rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes have appeared in unison, with Kashkari shifting from centrist to hawkish, indicating that inflation concerns have spread from traditional hawks to centrists. Before the meeting, the market had about a 30% chance of factoring in rate hike expectations. When the Federal Reserve announced rates would remain unchanged, market pressure was instantly released, and Bitcoin rebounded in response. Short-term technical rebound. Short-term bullish forces dominate, prices continue to rise upward, and the influx of incremental funds drives the market higher.I only treat this kind of news as financial dispatch, not $BTC as a bullish signal.
Hyperscale Data sold 100 $BTC to supplement the AI data center's cash flow, plus using BTC as collateral for credit lines. Essentially, it treats coins as balance sheet tools—not to increase holdings or attract new money. Here's the point of controversy about the market: many people automatically interpret "AI + BTC treasury" as a positive sign, but I don't accept that logic.
Currently, $BTC is at 64,898, with a 24-hour high and low of 65,176 / 63,603. The price is near the upper bound of the range, and the funding rate is only +0.0100%. The bulls are not considered aggressive; But the contract/spot transaction ratio has reached 6.5x, so trading mainly revolves around derivatives. At this stage, the biggest fear is using company news to find reasons for short-term price chases.
My action was straightforward: I didn't chase long above 64,950, placed a 5% light short position near 65,180, stopped loss at 65,650, and targeted 64,080 first. If spot trading can hold above 65,200, I'll close my short position and won't argue with the news.
Do you take this news as good news? $BTC #BTC
The market is changing; what works today might be wrong tomorrow.Apple fell, Amazon rose: Two earnings reports, one lesson
This earnings season, it's particularly interesting to look at two companies side by side: Apple's earnings were good, but its stock price fell; Amazon's cash flow was negative, yet its stock price rose.
Apple: Did well this time, but forecasted to do worse next time
Let's first look at Apple's report card.
Revenue was $109.4 billion, up 16% year-over-year; net profit was $29.8 billion, up 27%. Breaking it down, iPhone revenue rose 22%, Mac rose 29%.
This is a very impressive result. Both phones and computers sold very well, and the company remains highly profitable.
So the question arises: with such good results, why did the stock price fall?
Investors look at earnings reports not just to see how much was earned in the past three months, but more importantly, whether growth can continue.
To give an analogy: a student scored 90 this time, which is very good. But if he tells his parents, "Next exam, I’ll probably only score just over 80," how would the parents feel? Certainly not happy.
Apple did exactly this: it forecasted next quarter revenue growth of 9%–11%, below market expectations. The services business was not as strong as imagined, and AI has not yet brought significant revenue.
So Apple's problem is not that it isn't making money now, but the market worries that its growth rate may slow down.
Amazon: Spending aggressively, but already seeing returns
Now let's look at Amazon. The focus of this earnings report is not online retail, but AWS.
What is AWS? You can think of it as a computing power rental company. Many businesses don't want to buy servers or build data centers themselves, so they rent from Amazon. AI companies especially need computing power, so AWS naturally becomes the most direct beneficiary.
Looking at the numbers: total revenue was $200.6 billion, up 20%; operating profit was $27.5 billion, up 43%. AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37%—the fastest growth in the past 18 quarters.
But Amazon also spends aggressively: this year it plans to invest $220 billion on chips, data centers, and AI. Because of heavy spending, free cash flow over the past 12 months was negative $7.6 billion.
Negative cash flow, so why did the stock price still rise?
Another analogy: someone spends a lot to build a factory, so cash is tight initially. But as factory orders increase and revenue grows rapidly, lenders won't panic because they can see the money coming back.
Amazon is in this state now. AWS's 37% growth signals to the market that the money invested is already turning into revenue.
Why does Amazon rise while Meta falls despite both burning cash?
Yesterday we talked about Meta. Both Amazon and Meta are burning cash to build AI infrastructure, and both have declining free cash flow, but the market's attitude is completely different.
What's the difference?
Amazon spends money but can directly sell computing power to customers through AWS; customers pay for servers, cloud services, and AI usage as they go, so money comes back immediately.
Meta? It makes money from Facebook and Instagram ads, then invests that ad revenue into AI models and data centers. AI can improve ad targeting accuracy, but the returns versus investment are not clearly accounted for.
Amazon spends money and earns money simultaneously; Meta spends first and the future earnings are still uncertain. The market naturally prefers the former.
Apple's problem is not lack of profit, but possibly slower future growth; Amazon's problem is heavy spending, but AWS has proven the spending is worthwhile.
This principle applies to all companies: spending money is not scary; what's scary is spending money that doesn't bring back more revenue and profit.
Borrowed a chart from @你的爱播Misa to use here The BTC decline is not due to the interest rate itself, but rather the result of the derivatives market pre-pricing in the 'next rate hike.' All 104 economists predicted rates would remain unchanged, so why did BTC fall by 1% instead? Fact: The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25-5.50% at the July FOMC, but BTC fell 1% to $63,890. The market repriced not the freeze itself, but the 9-3 opposition vote (three advocating a 25bp increase) and the 82% probability of a September hike reflected in OIS. The internal rift within the Fed widened from 12-0 to 9-3, which is the result of the derivatives market hedged the 'worst-case scenario' by accumulating a historic open interest of 967,136 contracts. Market Structure Changes: While the hold was within the expected range, three opposition votes pushed the September rate hike expectation from 13% to 38%. With Fed Chair Walsh abolishing the comprehensive guidelines, the market had to adjust its position amid uncertainty without a dot plot. The record open interest in CME fund futures was large-scale hedging as traders bet on short-term rate increasesAccording to OKX real-time data, $XMU was quoted at $901.67, with a 24-hour increase of 21.02%. The intraday high reached $911.56 and the lowest was $723.69, with an amplitude of 0.0% and a turnover of 0.0B. This set of data reflects a situation where the opening and closing price ranges closely overlap according to statistical criteria. In reality, intraday volatility remains severe, prices quickly surged to high levels after narrow consolidation, and short-term capital games are evident. Switching to on-chain metrics, MVRV currently reads at 2.3, meaning holders' average unrealized profit exceeds 130%. This value has entered a historical overheating range; after the last three MVRV breaks above 2.2, $XMU has seen a 9% to 14% drawdown within 72 hours. The SOPR index fell back to 1.08, cooling from 1.14 the previous day, indicating that profit-taking is gradually releasing selling pressure, though panic exit has yet to form. On the URPD distribution chart, the most concentrated chip accumulation is between $792 and $810, which corresponds to the tightly traded zone before yesterday's volume breakout and serves as effective short-term support. If the price pulls back within this range and MVRV falls below 2.0, the long-bear structure will regain balance. In terms of exchange balances, the net inflow of XMU on the OKX platform increased by 12% quarter-on-quarter in the past 24 hours, with an absolute volume of about 48,000 coins. The number of on-chain addresses transferring to exchanges is rising simultaneously, indicating that some profitable tokens are being transferred to trading platforms, and potential short-term selling pressure should not be ignored. However, the average holding cycle for outflowing addresses still exceeds 40 days, so the confidence of medium- and long-term holders remains unshaken for now. This structural differentiation is a typical feature of the market entanglement phase. From a technical perspective, on-chain signals show that $XMU showed divergence signals at high levels, while rising exchange balances reinforced expectations of a pullback. MVRV is relatively high, SOPR is weakening, and chip stacks still hold support, so the direction is likely to be bearish in the short term. Below, watch the URPD concentration zone near $800, and above it needs to hold above $915 to open new space. In the medium- to long-term logic, some wallets have only been inflowing and not withdrawing for months, viewing $XMU as a tool for configuring the digital future. This belief in scarcity is like a kind of wealth code, but short-term price movements are not driven by sentiment. Bullish and bearish judgment: Short-term pullback pressure is accumulating, leaning cautious; If the medium-term pullback does not break below $792, the upside structure remains intact. The above analysis is based on on-chain data and market indicators, and does not constitute investment advice. BTC ETFs are flowing out, ETH ETFs are flowing in, and money is moving
Last week: Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of 3,170 BTC (about $200 million), Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of 37,959 ETH (about $71 million). ETH has seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks.
BlackRock's IBIT is flowing out, and BlackRock's ETHA is flowing in. The same company is moving funds from BTC to ETH.
Why? ETH's ETF fees are lower, ETH offers staking yields, and ETH is starting to increase in demand from corporate treasuries (BitMine's stock price rose 13%, and SharpLink continues to increase its ETH holdings).🚨 Major Scenario Revealed: Is the Crypto Sector Declining in Form? A 24-hour transaction heatmap tears open the harsh truth
Opening the perpetual contract trading volume rankings on major exchanges, let's first ask everyone a tough question:
Are we still trading on exchanges now or not?
First, look at this transaction heatmap—the reality of fragmentation is obvious to the naked eye:
✅ The only truly native cryptocurrencies are: $BTC, $ETH, SOL, COTI
The remaining massive trading volume that accounts for half the market is all mirror contracts:
Micron MU, SanDisk $SNDK, SK Hynix, Semiconductor Long-Short ETF SOXL/SOXS, Gold XAU, Silver XAG, Crude Oil CL, and various overseas stock ETFs......
Massive leveraged funds have long fled massively from counterfeit crypto tokens, flooding into US stocks and commodity perpetual markets.
Many people still live in old beliefs: crypto = speculating on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all kinds of new meme coins.
But the reality at the moment is extremely cold:
Centralized exchanges are no longer just cryptocurrency exchanges.
It has evolved into a 24/7× leveraged trading infrastructure supporting high leverage and stablecoin settlements.
What the target is doesn't matter at all.
Whether it's a blockchain-native token, or a US chip stock, gold, or crude oil, it makes no difference for the platform.
The platform only earns transaction fees.
As the narrative of Grey Dog, public blockchains, and MEME coins continues to fade, and native crypto small-coin liquidity continues to dry up, exchanges naturally frantically launch traditional asset mirror contracts to compete for incremental capital.
Funds vote with their feet, the trend is clear at a glance:
Speculative funds are tired of empty tokens that lack fundamentals and rely solely on shouting to push the market.
Compared to altcoins with extremely high risk of reset, storage chips, gold, and crude oil have clear macro logic and industry cycles, making capital more willing to bet on real-world cyclical markets.
⚠ Two layers of reality—you must distinguish between them:
The boundaries of the derivatives speculative circle have become completely blurred
A large number of so-called "crypto traders" now don't touch new coins at all.
Open the software to trade semiconductor cycles, gold hedging, and crude oil supply and demand.
It simply borrows the leverage and uninterrupted trading environment of crypto platforms.
It's hard for outsiders to tell whether he's a stock investor or a crypto player.
The native crypto track remains independent, but speculative capital is losing its value
BTC and ETH remain the foundation of the industry, while on-chain DeFi and RWA infrastructure continue to evolve.
However, the most aggressive and largest derivatives hot money is slowly decoupling from native crypto assets.
🔥 The most important point to watch out for:
Traditional assets like SOXL, MU, XAU are perpetual ≠ spot stocks / physical gold.
The vast majority are just price mirror derivatives issued by exchanges, without the backing of underlying underlying assets.
You may seem to be trading US chips and gold, but at your core, you're still a bet on the platform, with liquidity gaps, pin insertion, and price spread risks far higher than native crypto assets.
In the past: entering the market = trading cryptocurrencies
Now: Enter = pick any 24-hour leveraged contract
Ask yourself: When most trading volume on exchanges has nothing to do with blockchain or crypto tokens,
Can the "crypto world" we talk about still be called the crypto world in the original sense?
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard US stocks violently rebound 🚀
Microsoft surged 15.5% in a single day, marking its biggest gain since 2008, with a financial report proving that AI investments can pay off. The Nasdaq rose 2.78%, ending a six-day losing streak, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soared 8%, and SanDisk led the charge with a 26% jump.
But don’t rush to call a bull market—Meta plunged 8% (cash flow plummeted 91%), Apple fell 6% after hours (AI lagging anxiety), and the 30-year US Treasury yield spiked to 5.2%, hitting a 19-year high.
The rebound is real, but so are the divergences. Microsoft has become the new anchor in the AI race, but other giants are still struggling. Retail investors have a memory of only three days, but the macro debt hasn’t been paid off yet.
Timing the market is less effective than reading the trend. See clearly who is swimming naked. Strategy lost $8.2 billion in Q2! You read that right—8.2 billion, and that's US dollars. Because of $BTC's poor performance, unrealized losses have snowballed and grown. But not only did they not leave, they even built a 3.75 billion yuan cash reserve pool. They say it's to support preferred stock dividends, and they've launched some kind of $BTC monetization plan. I was stunned by this move. On one hand, the books were losing like dogs, while on the other, they were hoarding cash in anticipation of disbursements. Is it too confident, or is it too deeply trapped? Don't panic, let's take a look at it. This company is now the world's largest enterprise-level holder of $BTC. The amount of Bitcoin held in their hands exceeds the reserves of many small countries. Paper losses are just floating losses; as long as you don't sell, it's not a loss. But the timing of their cash pool is delicate. After losing 8.2 billion yuan in Q2, they immediately said they had 3.75 billion yuan in cash as a backup. It looks just like issuing an announcement after a crash to stabilize morale. But then again, A company that managed to pull out nearly 4 billion yuan in cash in such a market is no ordinary person in itself. This shows the capital chain hasn't been cut and the confidence remains. What the market fears most is not losing money, but panic. If Strategy can really survive this round of adjustment and wait for $BTC to recover, the 8.2 billion unrealized loss could be wiped out instantly. But at this critical moment, I think it's best to see if $BTC can hold its ground first. With Bitcoin unstable, all sorts of cash pools and monetization plans are just paper talk. Don't rush to copy homework. Before the drama was even #加密行情回暖finished, Bitcoin rose #美股全线走高, crypto stocks led the #伦理条款获特朗普认可, and divergence remained 2026.07.31 Chanlun Community Web3 Morning News 💥
1. Bitcoin rose 1.54% to $64,764
Commentary: Gold breaks through $4100, and a weaker dollar drives a rebound
2. Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin far in July
Commentary: The ETH/BTC ratio has risen to a three-month high, indicating clear capital rotation
3. Over 90,000 investors worldwide were liquidated in the past 24 hours
Comment: The volatility isn't huge, yet so many people are liquidated...
4. Bitcoin ETFs end four consecutive days of net outflows
Commentary: BlackRock's IBIT injected $89.83 million in a single day, which was the main reason for the reversal
5. Ethereum ETFs have outflowed Bitcoin net inflows for three consecutive weeks
Commentary: Institutional interest in ETH allocation has clearly increased
6. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent urges the Senate to immediately vote on the CLARITY bill
Commentary: Senate majority leaders expect it to fail to pass before the August recess
7. JPMorgan: Probability of CLARITY Act Passed Drops to 37%
Commentary: If the bill is delayed, tokenized applications may be absorbed by traditional financial infrastructure
8. SEC Chair: If CLARITY fails, the SEC will set its own rules
Commentary: Regulatory certainty will not be absent; it may just be implemented in a more fragmented manner
9. Coinbase wins major class-action lawsuit
Commentary: Involving more than 60 tokens including XRP and Dogecoin, it was ruled that "matching transactions" do not constitute securities sales
10. Coinbase's Q2 revenue was $1.22 billion, marking 14 consecutive quarters of profitability
Commentary: Trading income is under pressure during a bear market, but earnings remain resilient beyond expectations
11. 500 single transaction addresses transfer 594 BTC ($38 million) within 25 minutes
Commentary: The concentrated abnormal movement of single-signature addresses has raised market concerns about security and potential selling pressure
12. BlueNoroff's new phishing toolkit targets the Web3 industry
Commentary: Social engineering + AI deep forging new threats
13. In the first half of 2026, crypto hacker losses will exceed $1 billion
Comment: Private key and voucher management have become the biggest weak links
14. WEMIX suffered a smart contract vulnerability attack
Comment: The impact of exposing contract vulnerabilities cannot be underestimated
15. Ondo Finance evaluates acquisition deals up to $500 million
Commentary: Industry consolidation is accelerating, with leading players vying for market share through mergers and acquisitionsSK Hynix Daily Market Summary (July 30, 2026)
1. Core market data
- US ADR closing price: $146.88, up 15.85% for the day.
- Korean Common Stocks: Rebounded intraday, but due to previous sharp declines, the overall market is still in a period of intense recovery (the previous trading day's intraday crash of over 19%).
- Market Cap Changes: The total market capitalization of US ADRs rebounded to about $1.08 trillion, a significant recovery from the previous trading day.
2. Core drivers of the surge
- Improved macro liquidity expectations: The U.S. core PCE price index for June rose 3.3% year-on-year (in line with expectations and below the previous value), while Q2 GDP grew only 1.5% quarter-on-quarter (significantly below the expected 2.1%). Dual signals of moderate inflation and slowing growth have pushed the market's expectation for a Fed rate hike in September from a "certainty" to about 60%, easing liquidity tightening concerns and directly igniting a rebound in tech stocks.
- AI capital expenditure concerns disproved: Microsoft and Meta's latest earnings have dispelled market concerns that "AI investment has peaked." Microsoft has confirmed that AI infrastructure capital expenditure next quarter will still exceed $50 billion; Meta has raised its annual capital expenditure guidance to $130 billion. The two giants have spent real money to declare that the AI "money-burning" battle is far from over, reinforcing the long-term logic of storage demand.
- Industry supply and demand tightness expected: At the earnings briefing, Samsung Electronics clearly stated that "memory chip supply shortages will continue until 2028," with 60%-70% of total capacity already used to ensure long-term supply agreements, and new customers must pay advance payments. Executives from the three major storage giants previously stated that tight supply and demand will continue beyond 2027, further reinforcing expectations for an upcycle in the memory market.
- Management's increased holdings convey confidence: SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won directly bought 3,620 shares of SK Hynix common stock for the first time, with a transaction amount of about 4.8 billion KRW (approximately $3.34 million). This move was interpreted by the market as management's confidence in the long-term value of semiconductors and a judgment of the current severe undervaluation, serving as a key catalyst for the stock price turning from a decline to a rise in pre-market trading.
- Oversold Recovery Demand Released: Previously, SK Hynix's stock price fell from a historical high of 2.987 million won on June 25 to 1.322 million won on July 30, a decline of over 56%, while Micron Technology pulled back more than 20% over the same period. Multiple positive factors combined with technical recovery demand after oversold conditions jointly generated a strong single-day rebound of over 15%.
3. Market sentiment and risk warnings
- Clear Sentiment Reversal Characteristics: The previous trading day, panic selling was triggered by Q2 results falling short of expectations (revenue and operating profit both about 5.7% below institutional forecasts), causing a single-day plunge of nearly 10%; The next day, driven by multiple positive factors, it quickly rebounded, showing typical "emotion-driven" volatility.
- Volatility risks in cyclical stocks remain: Memory chips are a highly cyclical industry. Although the current rebound has confirmed the long-term logic of AI storage, the stock price has already priced in high growth expectations. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to the strength of quarterly earnings reports, changes in capital expenditure guidance from AI giants, and marginal changes in storage price gains, to be wary of the cycle pattern of "buying in panic, selling in unison."
- A-share linkage impact: The sharp rise of overseas storage giants is highly likely to catalyze sentiment in the A-share storage sector. Domestic storage manufacturers such as Jiangbolong, Baiwei Memory, GigaDevice, and SK Hynix's domestic agent Shannon Chip Innovation are expected to benefit. However, it is important to rationally distinguish between short-term sentiment and long-term fundamentals, and avoid blindly chasing themes that previously saw overly high gains.
4. Key data supplements
- Q2 core performance indicators: revenue of 79.32 trillion KRW (YoY +257%), operating profit of 60.54 trillion KRW (YoY +557%), net profit of 93.92 trillion KRW (YoY +1242%). All three indicators hit single-quarter records, but net profit included a one-time investment gain of 62.17 trillion KRW (sale of Kioxia shares).
- Industry Price Forecast: TrendForce forecasts a 13%-18% quarter-on-quarter increase in DRAM contract prices and 10%-15% in NAND in Q3 2026; UBS forecasts a 32% quarter-on-quarter increase in DRAM contract prices in Q3 and an additional 18% increase in Q4.
- Supply-demand gap data: Currently, the industry-wide supply-demand gap exceeds 15%, with storage chip capacity construction cycles of 2-3 years, and new capacity not released until 2028 at the earliest; The DRAM capacity per AI server is 8-10 times that of traditional servers, and global HBM demand growth is expected to reach 67% by 2026.
Note: The above data is based on the US stock market close on July 30, 2026, and publicly available market information for that day, and does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market carries risks; caution is advised when entering the market$CORE Debunk: Don't be brainwashed by the idea that 'the team will surge after the 2027 team unlocks'
A very confusing view circulates within the circle: as long as they hold out until early 2027, when the team share is fully unlocked and selling pressure disappears, CORE can see a reversal.
Blindly focusing on the unlock schedule and fantasizing about market trends is a fatal misconception. Combining the token release mechanism with the current on-chain situation explains the logic thoroughly.
1. In 2027, it only means the team will not add new unlock chips, but it does not mean the project team has no chips to spend
The team shares 315 million tokens, which will stop unlocking in January 2027; however, the treasury will have 199.5 million tokens and ecosystem reserves of 210 million tokens, with a 10-year release period continuing until 2033.
Over 400 million in controllable chips have been held by the foundation for a long time, with collateralizable loans, off-market disposal, and phased sell-offs—there's no such thing as 'once the unlock ends, there will be no project selling pressure.'
2. Permanent long-term selling pressure: Block mining rewards have been continuously released for 81 years
Many people deliberately avoid this core rule. The CORE block consensus reward cycle lasts 81 years, slowly decaying by 3.61% annually, continuously producing new tokens over the long term.
Even if the project team stops selling, the continuous demand for new tokens to cash out from nodes, miners, and staking users will persist. Selling pressure is just a change in the main body; it will not disappear.
3. The market rally relies on new buying interest, not simply a decrease in selling
The most fundamental financial logic: without external incremental funds and sustained ecosystem cash flow, simply reducing selling pressure cannot drive a trending rise.
Current situation: The on-chain ecosystem is nearly stagnant, with Colend, Molten, NFT, and perpetual contracts all failing one after another; lstBTC and SatPay narratives were delayed; Official commitment to buybacks, with zero buybacks in the past eight months; External institutional funding has almost completely disappeared.
Without real demand support, even the lowest selling pressure cannot support prices, and the low-volume bearish decline can continue indefinitely.
4. Harsh reality: In 2027, the team's chips are cleared out, and project teams lose the motivation to maintain the market
At present, occasional pulse rebounds, false trading volumes exist on the market, and various narratives are continuously launched, all driven by zero-cost token unlocking and selling.
Once all team shares are cashed out, project teams no longer have incentives to engage in PR, maintain quantitative market views, or continue to package positive news.
At that point, there is a high probability that the narrative will stop, the market will be left unmaintained, liquidity will continue to dry up, and the coin will become a complete zombie currency.
5. The iron rule of the crypto world: Buy expectations, sell facts
Many retail investors are unanimously hoping for 2027, with expectations already fully priced in. When the unlocking is complete, the good news will be realized, making it easy for a concentrated crush.
Summary:
2027 is not the starting point for reversals, but merely a phased unlocking milestone.
Treasury and ecological reserves will continue to release funds until 2033, combined with perpetual mining inflation over 81 years, with long-term selling pressure; The core issues of ecosystem bleeding and lack of incremental funds will not be automatically resolved once the unlock ends.
Don't pin your hopes for a breakthrough on a distant timeline; each brief rebound in the narrative is more an exit window than a chance to seize the opportunity.
Virtual currencies carry extremely high risks, and there is a risk of principal being lost to zero. The content objectively reviews mechanisms and logic and does not constitute any investment advice.Interest rates unchanged, but BTC fell—this is not an accident; the market is telling you "you haven't understood yet." 🫧 Do you also think that since all 104 economists unanimously bet to hold the rate and CME data shows a 70% probability of holding the position, then the decision should "meet expectations and remain calm"? As a result, BTC slipped from above 65,000 to 63,890, and ETH also fell by 1% in tandem. In fact, the real signal is never in the "result" itself, but in the "cracks behind the result." - The first layer, and the easiest to overlook—the voting result is even more deadly than interest rates. This time, 9 to 3, the chairs of Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas all voted against it, advocating a 25 basis point rate hike. Last time, it was unanimously approved 12-0, but this time it split into a quarter. These three votes were the most hawkish dissenting votes during Wash's term, telling the market that some within the Fed already feel that not raising rates is a mistake. The interest rate hasn't changed, but the expectation of a "rate hike in September" has been fully activated by these three bills. In the derivative structure, the probability of a July rate hike implied by OIS once soared to 38%, and the September rate hike expectation has soared to 82%. - Second: Inflation hasn't stopped at all, and energy is secretly adding fuel to the fire. The Fed's statement made it clear: inflation remains above 2%, partly because Middle East tensions are driving up oil prices. Iran's Revolutionary Guard just launched ballistic missiles, and the US military precisely struck Iranian-controlled targets in Iraq, causing oil prices to rebound by nearly $4 to $83. If it fluctuates repeatedly between 80 and 90 dollars, inflation expectations won't come down. The probability of rate hikes is fromVisa's latest earnings report reveals figures: quarterly net revenue of $11.6 billion, with payments exceeding $4 trillion, but what truly excites Wall Street is its stance in the stablecoin sector. This payment giant announced its joining the OpenUSD alliance, maintaining a multi-currency, multi-chain strategy but clearly not issuing its own stablecoin. This approach of only focusing on infrastructure and charging fees is more sophisticated than institutions that issue tokens directly. Visa's cross-border transaction fees are as high as 2% to 3%, while stablecoin transfer costs are almost zero. Visa is embedding assets like $USDC and $USDT into its clearing network, essentially laying a toll road in the crypto world. Currently, the total market capitalization of stablecoins exceeds $180 billion, accounting for more than 60% of $USDT. Visa's entry will drive explosive adoption of stablecoins in e-commerce, remittances, and other scenarios. This also acts as a catalyst for public chains like $ETH and $SOL, as large amounts of stablecoin flow require support from the underlying network. Visa does not bear the risk of price fluctuations, and its win rate is clearer about fees—this is the real calculation of traditional financial giants. The stablecoin ecosystem will see accelerated compliance, with medium- to long-term bullish prospects. Visa #微软逆势下调资本开支, up 8.5% in after-hours #财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud revenue surpasses 100 billion, Meta disappoints guidance—Is the AI story diverging? Did I miss out again? Is it still possible to get on board with $SOFI now? Wait, I calmed down and looked at the numbers again, feeling a bit laughable. Over 380,000 crypto products—sounds huge, right? But in Q2, net trading revenue was only $1.2 billion. What does that mean? Gross profit of 130 million, transaction costs over 130 million... Almost a waste! The story of institutions entering the market has been told for years, and it turns out their own calculations are just as bad. I remember chatting with a friend a couple of days ago, she said, "The institutional era has arrived, retail investors have no way out." I asked her back, "Look at SoFi's financial report—does it seem like there's any way to survive?" 380,000 products... After deducting mainstream assets like $BTC and $ETH, what's left? A bunch of small-scale coins with exhausted liquidity, and even market makers are too lazy to place orders. Honestly, after seeing this data, I actually felt relieved. I used to think big players were invincible, and I was just a leek. Turns out no one has it easy. Costs eat up 90% of the profits—that's real world trading. We complain about gas fees and slippage, but for big platforms, that's tens of millions of dollars in friction costs. So not all "positioning" is worth chasing. Not all "institutional entries" make money. Sometimes, staying still is better than moving recklessly. Play steady and wait for a truly understandable opportunity. Right now, the whole internet is hyping up all kinds of narratives, but I think we should stay steady first. $BTC when you're going sideways, don't rush to find tenfold coins. Waiting for the wind to pick up the sails again, #美股全线走高 crypto stocks led the #特朗普将决定是否扩大对伊战事 #谷歌特斯拉Q2财报今夜见分晓Risk appetite is like a roller coaster; risk-on is back, but don't mistake a rebound for a reversal—the last time someone thought this way, their graves were already three meters tall.
Look at the numbers
$BTC 64,859 +1.44% $ETH 1,926 +1.01%
$QQQ +3.30% $SPY +1.68% $IBIT +1.94%
$DXY -0.83% $GLD +1.64%
All the hype this round is on the semiconductor side: $SNDK +32.5%, $SKHYNIX +14.7%, $MU +22.0%, $SOXL +32.6%. The AI narrative has directly boosted risk appetite. The fire between crude oil and Hormuz is still lingering, and inflation expectations are fluctuating; $DXY If it softens, risk assets dare to breathe, but the exchange rate line can turn against you at any time. Don't treat the US dollar as a backdrop.
In the crypto world, $BTC led ETF gains in small steps, $IBIT +1.94% still managed to keep up with spot trading. The problem lies in the $ETH, where they haven't even touched 2,000, and the funds are clearly holding on. Is it the knockoff season? Don't worry, even the big brother hasn't steadied himself. $QQQ is quite steady, and the Nasdaq's bullish candlestick has made many people believe it again. $GLD is still rising, but safe-haven funds haven't fully withdrawn, indicating the market base is still uncertain.
A barrage of analysis is fierce as a tiger, but whether the market rises or falls, Trump is still watched. Whoever shows weakness first will set the direction for the next few days. I choose to wait a bit longer; one or two candlesticks don't matter.
#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or IllusionToday, there are only two types of people opening their accounts.
One type held on and breathed a sigh of relief watching the rebound.
The other type sold off, feeling worse today than when they were losing money.
Those who held on: watching SanDisk pull back 22%, Microsoft rise 14% in one day, the red numbers in their accounts are less than yesterday, they breathe a sigh of relief, feeling that their recent ordeal was not in vain.
Those who didn’t hold on: panicked during the continuous sharp drops these days, sold off, or had their positions forcibly liquidated due to leverage.
Seeing the rebound numbers today, their mood is worse than when losing money. Because losing money is just painful, but watching the stocks they just sold off rally 22% is both painful and infuriating.
Which type are you?
Microsoft’s earnings report last night actually gave the whole market a strong boost. No need to look at too many numbers, just remember one thing: after spending $41 billion on AI infrastructure, free cash flow is still $19.6 billion.
On the same night, Meta’s report was the opposite: expenses rose 55%, free cash flow dropped to less than $800 million. One company spent money and made a profit, the other spent money and dug a hole. The market made its judgment overnight.
But don’t rush to think the sky is clear with today’s rebound. A large part of the rally is short covering. The funds that shorted with leverage a few days ago couldn’t hold on and started closing positions, forced to buy back and push prices up.
Leopold’s Situational Awareness fund holds $8.5 billion in puts on chip stocks. Today, he’s scrambling for cash everywhere. If his positions start being liquidated passively, just the covering alone could create a significant rebound.
So whether this rebound turns into a real reversal depends on tonight’s earnings from Apple and Amazon.
Microsoft proved AI can make money, but one company’s earnings aren’t enough; more need to deliver the same answer.
The cruelest thing this month isn’t how much it dropped, but who’s still here and who’s gone. SanDisk’s 22% rebound today has nothing to do with those who were forcibly liquidated at the bottom last week.
They endured the entire drop and left the rebound to others. The direction was right, but they died in the three days they couldn’t hold on.
A phrase that can be used repeatedly this year: it’s not about whether you saw it right, but whether you can survive until the day you’re right.
Tonight Apple and Amazon report. Are you still here? $SNDK $MU Last night, AI stocks saw a massive rebound, with several key observations:
1️⃣ This round of AI stock crashes has finally found a reasonable explanation.
The forced liquidation of Leopold funds perfectly explains why this wave of AI stocks is selling so fiercely.
Often, market declines are not due to sudden deterioration in fundamentals, but rather liquidity crises caused by leveraged funds trampling on them.
Once the cause is found, panic tends to end.
⸻
2️⃣ But note: rebound ≠ reversal.
The first phase of the AI market—the hype cycle driven by imagination, sentiment, and valuation expansion—has basically come to an end.
Next, the market will enter a more complex phase:
There is a constant tug-of-war between fundamental pricing and sentiment pricing.
A true AI winner needs to prove itself through performance.
As for short-term sentiment, it may still take some time to recover, and the market needs to "feed the chives" again.
⸻
3️⃣ South Korean market: Kimchi discounts may recover, but most likely only a rebound.
South Korea's apparent financing situation remains relatively stable for now, but overall leverage remains relatively high.
If further government restrictions on short selling are compounded, market sentiment may improve.
The long-standing 'kimchi discount' in the Korean stock market has a chance to recover in the short term.
But don't forget:
Valuation recovery ≠ the start of a bull market.
⸻
4️⃣ The actual impact of this wave of market volatility in South Korea may not be as significant as the market imagines.
I asked some friends outside the circle who studied in Korea, and they gave feedback:
There were no obvious abnormalities in the living, consuming, or working environments around us.
This indicates that currently, most fluctuations are still at the financial market level, with no obvious spread to the real economy for now.
⸻
5️⃣ Tonight's rebound in AI stocks may not be good news for BTC and ETH.
Funding is always limited.
After risk appetite returns, capital usually remains the first choice for core AI assets in the US stock market.
In the short term, the AI rebound may continue to drain some liquidity from the crypto market.
BTC and ETH may need to wait for new catalysts to strengthen.
⸻
To sum up:
Tonight is about emotional recovery, not a trend reversal.
AI has moved from "storytelling" to the stage of "submitting report cards";
The Korean market is experiencing a breathing room, but leverage risks remain;
The crypto market may continue to face pressure in the short term.
The most dangerous times in the market are often not when the market plunges, but when people start to believe "it's already bottomed." #ai股票# #美光# #闪迪# #海力士# #比特币btc# Last night, the strongest line in US stocks
Not AI applications
It's storage
SNDK rises 26%
MU up 18%
WDC rises 15%
STX up 11%
The reason is straightforward
Microsoft AI CapEx has not cooled down
Samsung has once again made the storage shortage cycle longer
The market is beginning to reassess one thing
AI is not just about the GPU
Also uses HBM DRAM NAND SSD
Today's trend is seen as divergence
After a surge in storage, it's easy to surge and turnover
If it is strong, funds will continue to stay in AI hardware
If weak, first test near the 5-day moving average and look for support
On the crypto side
BTC is a barometer
ETH is expected to catch up
SOL depends on risk appetite
BNB XRP ADA DOGE is more like sentiment spread
If US AI hardware continues to strengthen,
Mainstream coins in the crypto world are unlikely to be too bad
But don't chase cyclical stocks into faith
The above content is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice
Investing carries risks; caution is advised when entering the market with $ETH $SNDK Losing 140 USD on a long position, a counterintuitive trick saved me. Damn, long trading got stuck at 140 USD. Staring at floating losses gave me chills, but I didn't want to cut losses—because I knew the problem wasn't in the direction, but in that voice in my head.
⭐ Here's an unconventional tip: Don't focus on your purchase price; the market doesn't care about your cost at all.
Most losing trades stem from the "anchoring effect"—you cling tightly to the opening average price of 65,331.5, thinking that only after the drop falls does you break even, but the more you hold on, the more passive you become.
In fact, the market speaks for itself: the current price is 64,909.1, while MA7 (64,807) and MA30 (64,395) are both below, firmly holding above the moving average. The short-term trend is bullish, and the 24-hour increase is still 1.45%.
When you're intimidated by unrealized losses, the market's signal is actually "You can still get a little more." Principles + Practical Cases (Two-Step Approach):
1. The anchoring effect makes you treat the "cost price" as the Bible, but the candlestick only looks at the future. My long position lost 140 USD, but the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 64608 held up below, and the RSI at 61.42 was still in neutral territory—neither overbought nor oversold—indicating the bullish moving average judgment was not overturned. If you only focus on floating losses, you would have cut long ago and sold at relatively low levels. 📌
2. Trading volume shrank by 37%, indicating weakened selling by bears and bulls in the same direction. At that moment, I told myself: forget the opening price, just look at how much higher the current price of 64909 is than the MA7—less than 100U. If the trend hasn't broken, why rush?
Note: Don't use tricks as excuses to stubbornly hold onto them.
If the price falls below the MA30 (64395) or the RSI drops below 40, I will admit my mistake and exit. - 32x leverage is too aggressive, liquidation price near 63,600, already close to the 24-hour low of 63,606.
Next time, I'll lower the leverage to within 10x to leave enough room for pullbacks. Have you ever been tricked by the "anchoring effect"?
$BTC $BEAT If the current price is short, it feels like you'll get stuck. If you buy a big position, just take over. August 1st is coming soon. Should we take advantage of this rally to sell? Some brothers say it's the foundation's unlocking chips, so it might not necessarily sell the stock. I don't really know now, but there's a pattern: if you look at the one-minute moving average, you can sell two or three times in a row for over 700,000, even over a million. Most likely, it's a big deal between the big players and the big players. I've followed suit several times, and the profit isn't much, but it's safer. This is just my personal observation, for reference only. I'm just waiting for it to surge up or show a right-side trend. I don't believe the big players won't cause trouble at 8.1!#财报观察员: Microsoft Cloud revenue breaks 100 billion, but Meta's guidance disappoints—has the AI story diverged? After nearly the entire month of July's decline, the storage sector saw a collective surge tonight—SanDisk +20%, Western Digital +16%, Micron +13%, Hynix ADR +11%. Many people's first reaction: Microsoft earnings drove a 14% rise and led the rally.
Let's share some views:
1. First, let's look at how they fell.
Yesterday, Hynix reported "the highest profit in history," yet its stock price once dropped 19% intraday and finally closed down 9.6%, nearly halving from the June peak by about 46%. The reason wasn't a collapse in demand but that the ASP month-over-month increase of +30% missed expectations, HBM4 volume ramp delayed to Q3, combined with a 2x leveraged ETF blowup in Korea forcing retail investors to deleverage. This was a position and sentiment washout, not a fundamental shift.
2. However, the market misread "Hynix's slight pricing rhythm flaw" as "AI hardware demand has peaked." Micron fell 27% from its high, SanDisk 46%—this is how the narrative of "AI bubble burst" gained ground.
3. Microsoft's earnings report precisely shot down this narrative: Azure +43%, next quarter guidance accelerating to +45%, cloud business annualized revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time, and management this time talked about "ROI on capital expenditure," not mindless cash burn. Demand is not slowing down; it's accelerating.
4. This is the key transmission: mega-capex acceleration = continued tight demand for HBM + server DRAM + enterprise SSD.
Samsung also gave the same signal yesterday—server DRAM/eSSD/HBM supply tightness will continue in the second half. Storage prices are "leveraged" on this capex curve, so when it falls, it falls hardest; once capex panic is disproved, it rebounds strongest.
In short: Microsoft is not the fundamental reason for storage price increases; it is the trigger that removes the "demand collapse" tail risk. Storage is always the purest and highest beta expression in AI computing power trades.
But don't get carried away.
This is still a cycle extremely sensitive to supply rhythm—upcoming verification points include the 8/4 Future Storage Conference, Hynix HBM4 volume ramp in Q3, and Nvidia earnings on 8/26;