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The cycle of retaliation between the US and Iran accelerates, with oil prices soaring 20% this month! Geopolitical risks add new variables to BTC
The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, the cycle of US-Iran conflict is intensifying, and international oil prices have surged nearly 20% in a single month, with energy inflationary pressures surging sharply. This is a double-edged sword for BTC:
Short-term pressure: The surge in oil prices may push up overall inflation expectations, disrupting the Fed's rate cut pace and putting pressure on risk assets.
Medium- to Long-Term Opportunities: Amid geopolitical conflicts, market risk aversion is intensifying, and BTC's attributes as "digital gold" are expected to be activated. At the same time, high oil prices increase costs for mining companies, accelerate the clearing of inefficient capacity, and are beneficial for the long-term health of the industry.
Currently, macro conditions have already shown PCE turning negative month-on-month + GDP slowing, combined with geopolitical risks, and the market has entered a sensitive period where "bad news is good news." Massive chips are still accumulating in the 61-65K range, with the bottom logic unbroken.
A true bull market often quietly brews amid uncertainty. Waiting for the situation to become clearer—do you think the surge in oil prices is bearish for BTC or a catalyst for safe-haven risk-off? #Bitcoin #地缘风险 #油价 #BTC
#美伊报复循环加速, oil prices have risen 20% this month Rarely seen in life! Has the Korean stock market really welded the roller coaster to the tracks?
The day before yesterday, it plunged 12% and had a circuit breaker; today, it jumped 17% intraday, setting a record single-day gain. The upward sidecar mechanism was triggered just 6 minutes after the market opened, and even the rise was paused.
July saw a 33% drop for the entire month, surpassing the 1997 Asian financial crisis, with nine circuit breakers and 21 trillion won in market value evaporation. On the last day, it rebounded violently, recovering the week's losses in one day.
The core engine of this rally is memory chips, and the global storage sector collectively staged an extreme V-reverse. In the Korean session, Samsung rose 25%, $SKHYNIX SK Hynix nearly hit the daily limit up and surged 30%, with the two domestic giants carrying the index to the forefront; The US stock market saw even stronger gains: Micron surged over 18% overnight, while pure NAND flash chip SanDisk surged nearly 26% in a single day, topping the storage sector in gains. Just a few days ago, it was sold off along with the broader market, nearly halved from its June high, but in just one day it recovered half the lost ground—its elasticity is even more exaggerated than Micron's.
Just three things: the underlying logic is all about storage cycle logic:
1. In the US market, Microsoft and Amazon's earnings reports exploded, AI faith is back, and the Philadelphia semiconductor index surged 8.19% overnight. In fact, the fundamentals of storage have long been sealed—$MU Micron's revenue surged 346% year-on-year last quarter, with gross margin reaching 85%, surpassing Nvidia; As a global first-tier NAND player, SanDisk has formed a joint venture with Kioxia to capture nearly 30% of the global market share. Enterprise SSD revenue has increased sevenfold year-on-year, and flash demand for AI data centers has surged. DRAM and NAND prices started at 60% in a single quarter, with high-end capacity orders scheduled through 2028. The previous crash was purely due to sentiment sell-offs, and the industry's prosperity showed no sign of recovery.
2. The South Korean government invested 20 trillion won in a sovereign wealth fund, taking over the AI track and precisely supporting the domestic storage leader, effectively handing the market a safety net.
3. Rumors say regulators are considering pausing short selling and narrowing price limits, shorts closing positions overnight and fleeing, combined with previous sharp declines and liquidated long positions, turning into a short squeeze.
A few days ago, Korean retail investors cried out for bottom-fishing and liquidated positions, and today it's all together for the New Year.
All I can say is, the world's craziest retail investors + the most competitive semiconductor storage sector create this exciting market. After all, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk $SNDK hold over 90% of the world's storage capacity. Their cycles rise and fall together—when prices rise, they jump together; when things fall, they jump off the building together—like grasshoppers on the same rope.📈 Daily Market Brief | 2026.07.31 (Friday)
📌 In short
The AI market isn't over yet, but the market is starting to distinguish: who can achieve real growth with massive investments, and who is still stuck in the 'burning money to tell stories' stage.
🔥 Today's highlight: Deposit stocks rebound violently
Micron rose about 18.4%, SanDisk gained about 26%; Samsung and SK Hynix also rose more than 20% intraday.
The core reason is the strong growth of Microsoft and Amazon's cloud businesses, proving that demand for AI data centers, HBM, DRAM, and enterprise storage has not collapsed.
But this rally also includes:
Valuation recovery after previous overselling
A large amount of short buying was made
Market sentiment quickly reversed
Therefore, **a surge in demand means demand remains, but it does not mean the medium-term bottom has been confirmed. **The consecutive single-day fluctuations of around 20% also indicate that the chips remain unstable, and the risk of chasing at higher prices has clearly increased.
☁️ Amazon proves that AI investment can lead to growth
Amazon AWS revenue grew about 37% year-over-year, the fastest growth in 18 quarters, while the company raised its full-year capital expenditure plan to approximately $220 billion.
This is a direct positive for the storage industry chain, indicating that cloud computing customers are still willing to pay for AI computing power.
However, Amazon's free cash flow has turned negative. If AWS growth slows in the future, the market will once again question whether such a large investment is worthwhile.
🍎 Apple: Solid performance, but AI stories aren't strong enough
Apple's revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, but its stock price remained under pressure after hours.
The problem isn't poor performance, but that the market has already priced in too much optimistic expectations, and Apple has yet to prove that AI investment can significantly boost device sales and service revenue.
In the short term, Apple may continue to lag behind Microsoft and Amazon.
💾 Changxin Technology and CXMT
Today is the last trading day for Changxin Technology since its listing, with no price fluctuation limit. Starting next Monday, the 20% price fluctuation limit will be restored.
Today's closing price will serve as the benchmark for calculating next week's daily price limit. A-shares are closed over the weekend, but CXMT perpetual on Hyperliquid is still trading, which may lead to large price spreads and oracle risks, making it unsuitable for high-leverage bets to converge.
🌏 Macro and BTC
U.S. monthly inflation has cooled somewhat, but quarterly price pressures remain high, and three Fed members also support rate hikes. Therefore, it is now more like a high-volatility recovery rather than a complete removal of risk.
BTC continues to fluctuate between $63,800 and $65,300, without a clear surge in the Nasdaq for now. Just wait for the breakout within the range; there's no need to chase rallies or sell-offs at the midpoint.
💡 My view
Microsoft and Amazon have proven that AI demand remains strong, but the surge in storage stocks only shows that "demand hasn't collapsed," not that "valuation adjustments have ended."
Micron and SanDisk are now better off waiting for pullbacks, shrinking volume, and new support structures, rather than chasing after seeing a single-day surge.
The above is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.#微软单日市值增近4500亿，创美股纪录
Damn! For those still dreaming of a full AI explosion, Microsoft just woke you up with the numbers.
On the same day, Meta's ads were okay, but the Q3 guidance was disappointing, with free cash flow crashing 91%, still stubbornly sticking to 130 to 145 billion in capital expenditure. The market simply didn't buy it and sold off hard.
KOLs on X also said: investors can now clearly tell who are the "big spenders that can monetize" and who are still empty dreamers. Some even shouted "the judgment day for AI spending has arrived." Microsoft proves ROI with cloud revenue, while Meta is still waiting for a miracle.
Morgan Stanley folks calculated that for every 1 unit of capital expenditure Microsoft spends, it leverages 1.5 units of cloud growth. This positive feedback is the confidence behind the valuation surge. But don’t celebrate too early; whether 45% growth can be delivered next quarter will directly decide if this wave is a recovery or an overextension. What about small and mid players? They’re still struggling in the profit swamp, with macro inflation shadows and liquidity tightening not gone. This is not a green light for industry-wide growth, but a structural pick-and-choose.
AI computing power demand is tough, HBM, storage, and data center logic remain, tech sentiment is warming up, and high-beta assets like BTC can catch some short-term heat. But well-known KOLs on X have long seen through it: capital only chases things with real implementation, junk-themed AI coins continue to cool off. Retail investors rushing in at the mention of "AI" are just waiting to be harvested.
Simply put, the game has changed. It used to be who spent more on GPUs was the boss; now it’s who can turn spent money into profit that survives. Microsoft just gave a loud slap: AI can make money, but not everyone can. Those who keep burning cash without returns, prepare for valuation cuts.
When the tide goes out, you can see who’s swimming naked at a glance. The latest US data shows that GDP growth in the second quarter has dropped to 1.5%, and overall PCE turned negative month-on-month for the first time in June. As soon as the news broke, the US stock and chip sectors rebounded rapidly, and many people immediately believed a new round of gains had begun. But is this a real positive development, or a trap to attract bulls? 🍿 Let's start with the surface logic: a slowdown in GDP means economic cooling, while a decline in PCE means inflation is falling short-term. The market immediately bet that the Fed will not need to continue aggressive rate hikes, and expectations for rate cuts within the year are heating up. With the easing of high interest rate pressure, capital naturally flowed back into high-valuation stocks like tech growth stocks and memory chips, which is also the core reason for the rapid rally. However, most people overlook two major fatal risks: 🥎 First, only the overall PCE is falling; the core PCE excluding energy remains stubborn and far from the Fed's 2% inflation target. This price drop largely relies on short-term declines in oil prices, which is a temporary fluctuation rather than a complete peak in inflation. ⚾️ $CL Second, a declining GDP indicates weakening economic momentum. In the short term, everyone is only speculating on rate cut expectations, but once the expectations are fully digested, the market will re-worry that the economic downturn will drag down corporate revenue and profits. To briefly summarize market patterns: In the short term, driven by expectations, recovery and rebound are likely to occur; In the medium to long term, it depends on whether inflation can continue to decline. The current rally is driven by sentiment, not a complete fundamental reversal. Be cautious when trading when good news is being realized: don't blindly chase highs during rebounds. If inflation data rebounds again, the Fed will take a hawkish stance again, and the previous rally will be a key factorCore breakdown of the Korean stock market's surge: foreign investors taking over, retail investors exiting
The strong rebound in Korean stocks this time is not driven by retail investors, but by foreign and domestic institutions entering the market aggressively, marking a key reversal in the market's capital structure. Data shows that foreign capital net bought over 7 trillion won in a single day, with funds highly concentrated in core storage stocks. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics alone attracted over 6.5 trillion won in total funds, accounting for more than 70% of total foreign capital purchases.
Unlike short-closing futures, foreign investors mainly build positions in the spot market, focusing on replenishing previously underallocated positions and restoring semiconductor weighting allocations. Meanwhile, South Korean retail investors completely reversed their operations, selling 8.25 trillion won in a single day against the trend. During the previous crash, retail investors continued to leverage to buy the dip, but now, taking advantage of the strong rebound, they concentrate on reducing positions and cutting losses to lower leverage. #美伊报复循环加速, oil prices have risen 20% this month
Coupled with the implementation of new leveraged regulations in South Korea, the trading volume of leveraged stock ETFs has shrunk sharply, and speculative activity has cooled rapidly. Despite heavy retail investor selling, this rally surged 17.91%, meaning foreign capital and institutions fully absorbed retail investors' selling. The withdrawal of leveraged funds and the return of major funds are two major positive signals, laying a solid foundation for the subsequent recovery of Korean stocks. #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9% #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
I believe the three most trusted signals when the market bottoms out
Every time there was a big drop, the most common question in the group was always: "Has it really been done?" "To be honest, no one can predict bottoms precisely, but after so many years, I've developed my own observation system. Don't look at candlesticks or indicators, just look at three signals.
Signal One: The most determined bulls are starting to cut losses
This is the most accurate contrarian indicator.
Remember after the FTX collapse in November 2022, when Bitcoin dropped to 16,000, those top influencers calling themselves "diamond hands" started posting saying "come out and lay low for now." In September 2023, several long-term veteran players began selling coins for cash. During the wave of yen arbitrage trade liquidations in August 2024, even the most stubborn miners started selling coins to pay electricity bills.
When even the most firm believers can't hold on, it means everything that needs to be sold has been sold. Only two types remain: the dead (those who can't be trapped) and the smart ones (those ready to bottom-fish).
At this point, prices may still fall, but the room is already very limited
Signal 2: Bad news is out, and the market is no longer falling
This is a signal that technical aspects cannot give.
Good news is everywhere in a bull market, and prices keep rising. In a bear market, good news is always a bad news to escape. The most typical characteristic near the bottom is that when a major negative news hits the market, the price only drops slightly, or even opens low and rises high.
What does that mean? Bears can no longer sell, selling pressure has dried up.
The most typical example is August 5, 2024, when Japan raised interest rates + yen appreciated + US stocks plunged, causing Bitcoin to plunge to 49,000. And what happened? It was taken back in three days. Such a series of liquidations would have fallen below in 2022, but couldn't be sold back then—indicating the buying force had already outpaced the selling force
Signal 3: No one in the arena is discussing the "bottoming out."
It may sound a bit counterintuitive, but it's the most genuine indicator of emotions.
The bottom is never shouted out. When everyone asks "Has it bottomed out?" or "Can you bottom-fish?" it's most likely not the bottom—because some people are still concerned about the bottom, indicating that funds are still watching from the sidelines and trying to bottom-fish. The real bottom is when it drops to the point where no one cares.
At that time, no one posted on the planet, only advertising bots were left talking in the group, and the "big shots" started posting motivational tips, with all kinds of "bottom indicators" no one sharing them. Trading volume has shrunk dramatically, prices have been sideways for several months, and everyone thinks this market is doomed.
At this point, the bottom has often quietly emerged.
In short
The core points for judging the bottom are three:
1. The most determined people have all been cut—selling pressure exhaustion
2. Major negative news can't hold back—bulls and bears are reversing
3. No one is discussing the "bottom" — pessimistic clearing
If these three signals appear simultaneously, I will hold a heavy position. If one is missing, I only do swing trading.
The bottom is something you walk out of, not just guess. Patience is more important than anything else.After watching the $XAAPL market all night, this daily candle closed with some interest. The price crashed to 309.24, down 8.19% intraday. On OKX, a bare-footed bearish candlestick broke through several small support levels. The highest was 339.22, and the lowest was 305.95. Although OKX data shows a 0.0% amplitude and 0.0B turnover, probably due to front-end volatility and huge real fluctuations, data capture must be delayed. But we have closely monitored the price trajectory on the market and can't be wrong. A circle of surrounding stocks is catching its breath and rebounding: $KMNO up 6.99%, $GOAT up 6.32%, $FLUID up 5.71%, except for $XAAPL being pinned down, indicating this is individual stock selling, not a market-wide trampling. Tokenized stocks are like this, anchored to the underlying US stock market and Apple movements. While rumors of continuous order cuts ferment over there, the $XAAPL here is directly dragged down. The spot and market linkages are strong, and regardless of whether the news is true or false, the candlestick reflects it first. Let's break down the 4-hour structure using wave theory. From the peak at 339.22, this downward trend shows visible signs of a push-up. The first wave dropped from 339 to around 325, with a slight rebound; the second wave's high didn't break above 332, then the third wave's main drop surged straight to 305.95—a large amplitude and steep angle, with five sub-waves clearly visible. The price is currently flat at 309, most likely entering the fourth wave of rebound and correction. The RSI has already shown a bullish divergence at the tip of 305.95. The 1-hour price low has moved downward, and the RSI low is rising. So a rebound at this level is quite normal. Technically, this is called a corrective divergence, not a reversal signal. So how can I confirm that this is the fourth wave and not a bottom reversal? Straight to Rafabonacci. From 339.22 to 305.95, this drop totaled 33.27 dollars. The 0.382 rebound is at 318.6, 0.5 at 322.6, and 0.618 at 326.5. Currently, 309 hasn't even touched 0.382 yet. If this rebound can't even break through 318.6, then it's definitely a weak fourth wave, followed by a fifth wave breaking new lows. The fifth wave target can be calculated by length. The first wave dropped by about $14. If the fifth wave is the same length as the first, it would be around 305 minus 14, which is around 291. If it breaks out of an extended wave, measured at 1.618 times, it might test the 280 level. Of course, that's another story; the key is whether the fourth wave rebound can break through 318.6 and hold firm. The timing window is also a bit coincidental. Counting from 339.22, today marks the 8th trading day of decline. In the Fibonacci sequence, 8 is a sensitive number, and usually a market reversal or rebound will hit this point. But the market gave me the impression that the bulls were weak and the rebound was unstoppable. The OKX order was packed with sell orders, and occasionally a large order would be swallowed up. The bottom-fishing below was mostly scattered small trades, clearly not the main players' entry. Given this background, my short position opened at 319. The stop-loss has already been moved to 316. If it can't break 318, I'll keep holding and watching. Once the 4-hour candlestick physical closes above 305, I'll immediately add to my short position. Some might say, the RSI has diverged from the bottom, and could it be bottoming out at any moment? Bullish divergence depends on the cycle combination. Hourly divergences can only rebound in a daily bearish trend, and going long is just getting the benefit of the fire. If you really want to catch the bottom, you need to wait for a bullish divergence in the daily RSI or a weekly oversold level. Right now, the daily RSI is still in the 40s, far from the oversold zone—it's not yet time for greed. Moreover, in recent years, when it comes to tokenizing US stocks, the inventory cycle theory can be fully applied to filter directions. Apple is now at the end of its proactive inventory reduction. With high channel inventory and wavering production expectations, this reflects the $XAAPL as the price center continues to shift downward, and even occasional rebounds are opportunities for shipments. When the inventory cycle enters a passive destocking phase—that is, when demand starts to recover and inventory is passively depleted—will stock prices strengthen ahead of the news. For now, it's still a bit of a challenge. Many people in the circle rushed in today to grab a rebound, focusing on the $XAAPL 305 needle for long, thinking the two bottoms are solid. I've seen this pattern too many times. If the second foot can't hold up, it's a bearish relay. Also, if the Fibonacci timeframe can't push the price back above 0.382 at the 8-day level, then the bulls will be in danger. After the US market opens tonight, if Apple continues to weaken, $XAAPL is very likely to crash as well. Once 305 breaks, it could at least look down to $30. For those who chased in to buy the bottom, I can only say: set stop-losses and don't take on trades. The coins next door $KMNO and $GOAT are rising well, but that's due to speculative capital rotating internally, which is completely different from $XAAPL's logic. Don't just switch stocks blindly just because others make money; chasing highs leads to a trap. In terms of data flow, OKX's trading volume distribution shows that at the 305 level, a bunch of limit orders were pressed down, but the buying and selling force remained below 0.6, with selling pressure far exceeding acceptance. The core of investment and wealth management is not to gamble on the limit, but to wait for the structure to emerge. At the very least, wait until the 4-hour chart has finished the five-wave exhaustion or break through the downtrend line before considering going long. Right now, I'm just following the daily bearish trend, adding positions whenever there's a rebound, using Fibonacci resistance levels as a defensive level, until the structure proves I'm wrong. Finally, to repeat the key level: above 318.6, the bearish structure remains intact. Below, 305 has fallen. The next target is Fibonacci extension at 1.618, at 298, and further down is the 280 area. As for when the bottom will appear, I'll wait for the daily RSI to show a bullish divergence or when inventory cycle data shows a turning point. If you have orders now, stick to your plan; if not, don't blindly guess the bottom—be patient. Considering the situation in 2026, the core differences lie in these four points:
· Regulation "physically isolates" 100x leverage: Chinese mainland strictly prohibits cryptocurrency trading and overseas leveraged platform operations, and the financing leverage cap in mainstream stock markets is usually only 2x (with high thresholds). Young Koreans can easily open up to 100x leverage on overseas accounts; this kind of "instant zero-to-zero" gambling environment simply does not exist in Chinese mainland.
· Different degrees of social "shame": In Korea, personal bankruptcy means a series of occupational restrictions and social credit "social death," with severe class rigidity, leading to a sense of "no chance to turn things around." Chinese society has a relatively higher margin for error, and there is a simple belief among the public that "the green hills remain." Personal bankruptcy or debt is more often seen as a "business failure" rather than a lifelong moral stain.
· The family's "safety net" is even more resilient: Chinese urban families generally have "six wallets" and a tradition of intergenerational mutual assistance. Even if there is a liquidation period, parents and friends often help cover the debt first, cushioning the pressure that could lead to extreme pressure. Many young Koreans are completely detached from their families and are fighting alone against usury.
· Differences in the concentration of "wealth creation myths" among investment targets: South Korea ranks first globally in crypto asset penetration, and young people see it as the "only channel for class advancement," meaning losing is equivalent to a complete denial of life. Although China also has speculative trends, the long-term memories of real estate and the A-share market have made most people subconsciously more wary of the risks of "getting rich quickly."
However, it should be noted that during the Chinese stock market crash, suicides caused by margin financing liquidations did occur, but the scale was far less severe than South Korea's "casino for all" style.
Ultimately, this is a difference in "casino rules," not a "gambler's psychology." If you're worried about your position risk, remember—for any leveraged trade, you should calculate before entering to see if you can hold out after "zeroing." #HyperLiquid定价异常致海力士永续暴跌 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期, storage stocks have seen sharp volatility in Crazy Koreans $$SNDK$🔥 Don't just focus on the big thing; this storage wave might not just be a rebound
In Google's latest financial report, Cloud revenue surged 82% year-on-year, and the full-year Capex was raised from $180–$190 billion to $195–$205 billion
With this set of data laid out, the market reminded the market of something: after AI data centers buy GPUs, there's still a long list of things waiting to be spent
Next to the GPU is HBM, servers can't do without DRAM, training and inference require enterprise-grade SSDs, and massive data like models, logs, and videos must be stored long-term on large-capacity hard drives
AI consumes not only computing power but also storage 📈
Therefore, the recent gains in Micron, SK Hynix, SanDisk, and WDC cannot be entirely explained as "oversold rebounds." Micron and SK Hynix cater to HBM and DRAM demands, SanDisk handles NAND and enterprise SSDs, and WDC relies more on large-capacity hard drives in data centers
In the past, when looking at storage, people focused on how many phones had sold and whether PCs had been upgraded
Now there's a bigger line: how much are cloud providers willing to invest in AI infrastructure?
Of course, a single day of revaluation isn't called revaluation, and even a big bullish candlestick can't change the previous crash. After that, I only focused on three things:
🔹Is there any loosening in HBM supply and demand?
🔹Can DRAM contract prices continue to rise?
🔹 Will cloud providers like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon lower Capex?
As long as these three cycles don't weaken together, storage is hard to see as a mere consumer electronics cycle
The real repricing in this round may not be a single company, but rather the position 👀 within the entire AI industry chain
$MU $SKHY $SNDK $WDCJuly is coming to an end, and this month is rather boring. Although the whole thing is being repaired, the amplitude isn't too large, and the movement is quite tangled. But this type of volatility is very suitable for intraday swings. During this period, there have been almost no over-stops, and various local highs and lows have been captured. The market sentiment has reached its peak, which is obvious to all.
The relay structure here is almost finished, so next month's market is destined to be tough—it might be the last escape opportunity for the bulls!
Note that low-level fluctuations are essentially repeated turnover of chips during deleveraging + bubble squeezing; opinions will not change until they return to the on-chain cost line.
On the macro front, last night's PCE fell to 3.3%, which is indeed good news. Inflationary pressures have clearly eased, but this is data from June, the worst month for oil prices. July is completely different, and the next data release will be very bad, which is a potential major negative factor.
Moreover, Walsh is taking a tough stance, with strong calls for rate hikes internally. The market still prices a 63% probability of a rate hike in September, and future expectations are quite poor...
My shorting is based on logical considerations from multiple angles, not mindless emotional venting; what is right and wrong is determined by the market.
August. Let's all work hard together!Originality is the core value of content. I do not simply copy and paste news; instead, I combine public data, industry logic, and personal observations to share independent views on SanDisk. Current core judgment: SanDisk is currently in the upward phase of an AI-driven NAND flash supercycle, with strong fundamentals, but the stock price has experienced high-level volatility and correction after a sharp rise. Short-term fluctuations have increased, while medium to long-term momentum remains, but caution is needed regarding the "unsustainability of high profits" risk typical of cyclical stocks. This is not a simple "AI concept hype," but a real evolution of storage infrastructure from supply shortages to structural pricing power shifts. Why does the bullish logic still hold? 1. Structural changes on the demand side: AI large model training/inference generates massive data, driving demand for high-capacity, high-performance enterprise SSDs far beyond traditional consumer electronics. The data center business has become SanDisk's fastest-growing segment, with related revenue surging year-over-year in fiscal 2026, and capacity basically sold out. Long-term agreements (LTA) lock in future capacity, significantly enhancing supplier bargaining power (shifting from past customer dominance to a more favorable fixed-price plus prepayment model for manufacturers). This reduces pure cyclical exposure and represents a rare certainty improvement compared to past cycles. 2. Supply-side constraints: NAND industry expansion is cautious (high capital expenditure, AI computing power occupying some resources), combined with the gradual ramp-up of new generation technologies like BiCS8, making it difficult to quickly fill the short-term supply-demand gap. As a pure flash memory player (focused on core business after spin-off), SanDisk benefits more directly than diversified competitors. 3. Financial validation: Gross margin rapidly rose to 7 #美股加密标的承压，币价波动影响财报
Brothers, after the earnings reports of these two crypto stocks came out after last night's US stock market close, the community started arguing again.
First, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy): a loss of 8.2 billion USD, which looks scary, but almost all of it is unrealized Bitcoin impairment on the books, no real loss from selling coins. They had already given an early warning about the scale on July 6, so the stock only dipped 0.5% after hours, the market basically digested it. They still hold over 840,000 BTC, with an average cost of 75,000, now the coin price is around 64,000-65,000, so there is indeed a paper loss.
Next, Coinbase: revenue of 1.22 billion, below expectations, down 18.5% year-over-year, net loss of 360 million. Mainly due to coin price drop + spot trading volume down over 20%. The stock dropped 5% directly after hours, a more direct reaction because this is real operational pressure.
Strategy is essentially a "Bitcoin leveraged ETF," so its earnings follow the coin price as a norm; accounting rules changes cause big paper losses or gains. The real focus is on its continued coin accumulation determination and financing ability. Coinbase is more grounded; trading volume is the lifeblood, and when volume shrinks, revenue looks bad, but they are already diversifying into subscriptions, stablecoins, and the Base chain, which makes them more resilient than before.
Impact on the future and market: In the short term, these two earnings reports will put some pressure on crypto stocks and sentiment, especially COIN which is strongly tied to trading volume. But BTC has already rebounded from the low to above 64,000; if it can hold or even rise further, Strategy's paper impairment can turn positive next quarter (that's how fair value accounting works), and Coinbase's trading volume will also recover.
Overall, these earnings are more of a "lagging indicator," the real market drivers are macro and capital flows. If the coin price continues to bottom out or rebound, these two might actually become sentiment catalysts. Don't be too pessimistic in the short term; key points to watch: can BTC hold above 65,000, and can trading volume warm up.
What do you think? Keep holding crypto stocks, or wait for a pullback to get in?#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
When you judge when the market is bottoming out, which signal do you trust the most?
Many people bottom-fishing always step halfway up the mountain, mainly because they rely on a single indicator: simply looking at candlestick bottom divergence, fear index, or low price levels easily triggers downward relays.
Let me start with my core point: compared to technical patterns and sentiment indicators, the resonance of negative news no longer hitting new lows + long-term funds continuing to lock up positions is the most important bottom signal to me.
A weakening of bearish factors means the bears' momentum has been exhausted
During a sustained downward phase, any piece of negative news can hit new lows; When it truly approaches the bottom, a concentrated wave of negative news materializes, and the price refuses to break the stage low.
This indicates that panic selling has basically cleared out, and those willing to cut losses have already left, which is a prerequisite for a trend reversal.
Cheap prices alone do not mean bottoming out; the key is the exhaustion of downward momentum.
On-chain tokens keep shifting, making it hard to artificially create noise
Spot inventories on exchanges steadily declined, and tokens were continuously withdrawn from platforms to offline wallets.
This means retail investors panic selling, while long-term funds quietly take over and lock positions. Candlesticks can be manipulated by funds in the short term, but chip migrations lasting several months are hard to fake.
Objectively avoiding pitfalls, let's talk about common pitfalls:
Focusing only on fear, greed, and extreme panic: the emotional bottom often appears early, and the market can remain in a fear zone for a long time and continue to decline.
Relying solely on technical bullish divergence: during a volatile downward market, bullish divergences can recur and repeatedly attract bullish demand.
One-day large whale transfers: internal position rebalancing at address, short-term swing funds, with very low reference value.
My practical principle: I won't go all out based on just one type of signal.
Prioritize observing the weakening of negative news, then verify on-chain chip lock-in, and finally wait for the market to emerge from a stabilization structure.
The bottom is a range, not a precise point. Abandon the fantasy of buying the lowest price and build up your position in batches to reserve capital for errors.
The bottom is polished, not predicted. The risk of left-side gambling is extremely high. Most retail investors wait for confirmation on the right side before joining, which is far safer than predicting the bottom in advance.$SNDK Rebounded from $972 to $1,346, with the core conflict being the struggle between industry giants' underwhelming profits and AI storage demand support. The market is currently at a dividing line between oversold recovery and bullish traps.
Kioxia's quarterly operating profit was 1.27 trillion yen, below the expected 1.37 trillion yen, lowering market expectations for strong semiconductor prosperity. At the same time, Bain Capital's liquidation and forecasts of industry oversupply have made medium- to long-term oversupply a major factor suppressing valuations.
The trigger for the upside scenario is for the price to hold above the $1310 resistance level. If AI storage demand continues to exceed expectations, prices will push toward $1550, at which point short crowding will turn into short-selling momentum. The playbook's failure signal is a price breaking below the $1230 support level.
The trigger for a downward scenario is that the price encounters strong selling pressure near $1400. If major manufacturers' production expansion signals materialize, the market will confirm that the rebound is merely a technical correction, with prices likely to retest the $1100 support level. The script's failure signal was a strong price breakout above $1550.
The trigger for the consolidation scenario is for the price to remain in the $1230 to $1310 range. This indicates that short-term profit-taking and trapped positions are clashing at resistance levels, and the market lacks one-sided momentum, with a focus on range-bound consolidation.
The breakdown threshold for bullish and bearish judgments is at $1230 and $1550. Falling below $1230 means the rebound is weakening, and bulls need to reduce positions and hedge edge; A break above $1550 would establish a trend reversal.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is whether Micron can hold the $835 support level and the actual expansion progress of major manufacturers.
#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance fell short of expectations, but stock price rebounded by 9% #谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底, securing a 20% stake #PCE环比转负 GDP growth slowed to 1.5%📉 Bitcoin is testing patience, not conviction.
The 15m trend still favors sellers, and until key resistance is reclaimed, bears remain in control.
Trade setup I’m watching:
📍 Short zone: $64,172–$64,242
🎯 TP1: $63,603
🎯 TP2: $63,267
🛑 Invalidation: Strong close above $64,496
The ideal scenario is a rejection from resistance followed by another leg lower.
No need to predict the next move—let price confirm it. Protect your capital, respect your invalidation, and stick to the plan.
$BTC #DailyOrbit @OKX Orbit $BTC #SoftPCEStrongDemand #AMZNMissesButRallies [This round of crashes has revealed everyone's true level]
SanDisk nearly halved in one month, then surged 26% the next day;
After breaking below a key level, SK Hynix quickly rebounded 17%;
Microsoft surged 15% in a single day, marking a rare increase in years.
This round of market movements appears to be a test of judgment, but in reality, it's about checking everyone's positions.
What level are you really at that point? No need for others to comment—the account curve is already very clear.
In this round of the market, roughly four types of people have emerged.
The first type: You look in the right direction, but end up stuck in leverage.
They are optimistic about storage, chips, and AI hardware, and their long-term logic is sound.
But due to overweight positions, leverage, or insufficient cash in the account, after several days of continuous declines, margin starts to tighten.
You can hold for the first three days, but on the fourth day, you're forced to reduce your position, or even be forced to liquidate.
But on the fifth day, Microsoft's earnings exceeded expectations, and the entire sector began to rebound.
The harshest part is right here:
The direction was correct, but it didn't live to see the market realize.
The market doesn't need to prove you wrong; it only needs to create one price swing beyond your capacity to get you out early.
The second scenario: the direction is right, but the market noise scares them off.
No leverage, still holding cash, and the position itself is not risky.
But during consecutive sharp declines, timelines are filled with phrases like "total crash," "bull market ends," and "quickly clear your positions."
Someone in the group posted screenshots of a clearance, and those around kept asking, "Why haven't you run yet?" ”
He could have held on, but in the end, he sold it at the height of his panic.
Not long after the sale was finished, the market began to rebound.
For these people, what they lose is not financial management, but judgment.
He treats others' emotions as his own trading signals.
The person with the loudest voice in the market may not necessarily take on the largest position; What you really need to check repeatedly isn't the comment section, but the reason you originally bought it.
Third: The direction is correct, but the buy position is too expensive.
There's nothing wrong with being optimistic about storage, but some are chasing at the hottest sentiment and highest valuation levels.
Costs are too high; a 10% drop is bearable, but when it drops to 20%, the whole industry starts to doubt.
Finally, he cut his losses and exited, concluding:
"The storage logic is over."
But often, it's not that the industry is bad or the company is bad, but that the price is too high.
For the same company, a 20% difference in buying costs can result in a completely different holding experience.
Those who bought at low prices can calmly observe, while those who chase at high start to question life with every drop.
A good company doesn't mean it's worth buying at any price.
Direction determines whether you have a chance to make money; position determines whether you can persist until you make money.
Fourth: They didn't do anything shocking, just didn't make a fatal mistake.
No leverage, dissatisfied positions, cash in the account, and buy positions not very high.
It was just as tough during the decline, but I wasn't forced to sell;
I breathed a sigh of relief during the rebound and didn't immediately chase the rally to add to my position.
Such people didn't catch the lowest point, nor did they catch all the rebounds.
It doesn't look impressive enough, and there aren't even any screenshots of earnings worth showing off.
But he is still alive.
The most effective states in investing are often not sexy:
Moderate positions, ample cash, no leverage, and no emotional decisions during sharp market fluctuations.
Looking back at these four outcomes, the ones who truly widen the gap may not be the one who has the most accurate judgment of the industry's direction.
Because there are quite a few people optimistic about AI hardware, chips, and storage.
The gap mainly comes from three things.
First, you are not using leverage beyond your tolerance.
Once leverage becomes too high, whether the direction is right no longer matters.
Because the market only needs short-term reverse fluctuations to get you out before the right answer appears.
Second, where you buy from.
The position determines the safety cushion and how much drawdown you can withstand.
Similarly, after a 20% drop, those who bought at the low may have just taken profits, while those chasing at the high may have already suffered serious losses.
Third, can you maintain your own judgment amid the noise?
When the market crashes, opinions are never in short supply.
Some people call for a crash, some say bottom-fishing, some sell clearances, and some post floating gains.
What really matters isn't what others say, but whether your original logic for buying has changed.
If the logic remains, proceed according to the original plan;
When logic is disproven, they decisively exit.
But don't hand over your trading system to strangers just because the comment section suddenly turns pessimistic.
You can open your account now and ask yourself three questions:
Have I used leverage that I can't afford?
How much cash is left in the account?
If it drops another 20% tomorrow, can I avoid being forced to sell?
If you can answer all three questions calmly, you're very likely to stay in the market when the next crash hits.
If you can't answer even one question, you should take advantage of the temporary market stability to readjust your position.
Every sharp drop is a thorough check-up for the market to give the account.
The only difference is:
Some people start adjusting after reading the report, while others only realize their problems after being carried out the next time. #微软单日市值增近4500亿, setting a record for the US stock market Amazon's single-quarter revenue reached ¥42.2 billion, a year-on-year surge of 37%, with profit margins hitting 39%, and it is expected to become a trillion-dollar track in the long term.
The official statement says AI hardware can break even in three years, servers can be used for five to six generations, and data centers serve for 30 years.
Large upfront capital expenditures will be depreciated annually, and after extending the cycle, book profits will continue to rise. Cloud companies' cash flow will be weak initially but strong later, with ample long-term dividends.
The price increase of storage chips impacts the entire industry chain: Amazon raised its capital expenditure by ¥20 billion this year; Apple's long-standing zero-inventory strategy failed, with inventory soaring to ¥11 billion.
Even Apple, with extremely strong supply chain control, can only passively accept chip price hikes and has lowered its next quarter's performance guidance.#财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌 Many people look at Google's earnings report and only see that AI is very strong.
But what really ignited the storage sector this time was not "how much money Google made," but the market suddenly realizing one thing:
Global cloud providers are still continuing to expand AI infrastructure.
Google's Q2 revenue was $119.8 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase.
Google Cloud revenue was $24.8 billion, an 82% year-over-year increase.
This growth rate is no longer ordinary cloud computing growth; it looks more like AI demand is pulling cloud business back into the fast lane.
Moreover, Google has further raised its full-year Capex guidance.
This is the core reason for the storage sector's rebound.
Because AI infrastructure is not just about buying GPUs.
Behind GPUs, you need HBM.
Servers need DRAM.
Data training and inference require SSDs.
Models, logs, videos, and enterprise data all need long-term storage.
The more cloud customers there are, the more data centers expand, and the greater the storage consumption.
So this round of storage rebound is not just about Micron or SK Hynix's own earnings logic, but a global repricing of the entire AI infrastructure chain.
What was the market most worried about recently?
Worried that AI Capex was too aggressive.
Worried that cloud providers were burning money without returns.
Worried that storage price increases were just a short cycle.
Worried that SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung had already risen too much.
But Google's earnings report gave the market a reverse signal:
Cloud demand is not bad.
AI demand has not stopped.
Big companies are still buying computing power.
Data centers are still expanding.
This will directly affect the global storage chain.
Micron benefits from DRAM, HBM, and NAND cycles.
SK Hynix benefits from HBM high-bandwidth memory.
Samsung benefits from global storage and wafer manufacturing comprehensive capabilities.
Companies like WDC, Seagate, and SanDisk benefit from enterprise storage and data center expansion.
Previously, the storage industry mainly looked at inventories of phones, PCs, and consumer electronics.
Now it's different.
Now the storage industry looks at:
Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, Meta data centers, AI inference volume, HBM supply and demand, enterprise SSD prices.
In other words, storage has gradually shifted from a "consumer electronics cycle" to an "AI infrastructure cycle."
This is also why the storage sector has rebounded so strongly recently.
It's not because the market suddenly stopped fearing high valuations.
It's because when prices fell before, the market interpreted "AI spending too much" as a bad thing;
Now with earnings reports out, the market is starting to reinterpret:
As long as this spending can bring cloud revenue, AI revenue, and higher customer demand,
then this Capex is not pure money burning but is sending orders to upstream storage manufacturers.
Of course, we must stay calm despite the strong rebound.
Storage stocks themselves are very volatile, and the price increase cycle cannot rise linearly forever.
What to watch next is not how much it rises in a day, but several core variables:
Whether HBM continues to be tight;
Whether DRAM contract prices can be maintained;
Whether NAND continues to recover;
Whether cloud providers will continue to raise Capex;
Whether AI inference demand can truly scale up.
My view is simple:
Google's earnings report does not directly tell you how much more storage stocks will rise,
but it at least shows that the global AI infrastructure line has not been disproven.
The short-term rebound trades on sentiment repair.
Whether it can continue long-term depends on whether cloud providers really keep buying servers, memory, and storage.
On the surface, this storage market looks like a chip stock rebound.
In essence, it is a global data center repricing.Geopolitical conflicts stir up global inflation; Eurozone data rebounds, and rate hike expectations heat up again
Many people focus only on the Fed's moves, overlooking the new wave of macro risks already planted in Europe. The rise in oil prices caused by Middle East conflicts has directly disrupted the cooling pace in the eurozone.
Eurostat released the latest inflation data for July, showing Eurozone CPI rising year-on-year to 2.9%, rebounding from June's 2.8% and fully matching the economists' previous forecast range. Previously, inflation data released in advance by France and Spain had already exceeded market expectations across the board. The inflation rebound is not an isolated phenomenon in a single country but a common issue across the entire region.
The core driver of the inflation rebound is the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire talks, which led to a surge in crude oil prices. Energy sub-items surged 10% year-on-year, directly pushing up overall prices; Not only energy, but service goods prices are also accelerating upward in tandem. Even excluding volatile categories like energy and food, core inflation indicators have also heated up, interrupting the downward trend in inflation.
The market has reacted quickly, with capital heavily betting on the ECB to resume rate hikes. Persistently rising inflation will keep suppressing easing space, and expectations for tightening global macro liquidity are resurging. Whether it's forex, US stocks, or crypto assets, all will be affected by this round of macro logic. Next, it is crucial to closely monitor the ECB's subsequent statements.AI is entering its next test.
Infrastructure is largely built. Now the application layer has to prove it can generate real returns.
According to Xinhuo Group Chief Economist Fu Peng, if AI applications fail to deliver meaningful cash flow over the next 6–12 months, hyperscalers could slow AI capex—creating pressure across the upstream AI supply chain.
On crypto, the message is just as important:
$BTC is no longer just a crypto narrative. It’s becoming a macro liquidity asset.
When liquidity tightens, BTC often reacts before other risk assets, making it a useful leading indicator for broader market conditions.
Watch these signals:
• Big Tech free cash flow
• US equity options positioning
• BTC price action
That’s where the next market turn may appear.
#SoftPCEStrongDemand #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay Last night, the US stock market experienced a long-awaited celebration: the Dow surged over 600 points, the Nasdaq surged nearly 3%, and Microsoft surged 15% thanks to a better-than-expected earnings report, igniting the entire tech sector. At the same time, $BTC quietly hovered around $64,000, with almost no fluctuations.
This division may seem contradictory, but it is actually reasonable. Wall Street's excitement stemmed from cooling inflation data and strong validation of AI giant earnings, with capital flowing back into growth stocks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin coincided with the expiration of monthly options and institutional rebalancing at month-end, temporarily suppressing prices under technical pressure in the derivatives market. Meanwhile, although the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, internal divisions are evident. Several officials support rate hikes, which strengthens the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, putting pressure on the non-yielding Bitcoin asset.
Simply put, both interpret the same macro signals, but short-term liquidity and market structure determine different trajectories. Wall Street is celebrating fundamental improvements, while Bitcoin is digesting its own liquidity shortages and position adjustments. In the long run, rate cut expectations will ultimately benefit all risk assets, but Bitcoin is still waiting for the wind.🚀 Ondo is evolving beyond its original vision.
Instead of launching Ondo Chain, the project has introduced Ondo Network—a new execution layer designed to bridge traditional finance and blockchain infrastructure.
Interestingly, Ondo says Ondo Network is not a blockchain in the traditional sense. Rather than building another Layer 1, it's focused on delivering centralized exchange-like speed while preserving the transparency, verifiability, and non-custodial benefits of on-chain systems.
🔍 What makes Ondo Network different?
• ⚡ High-speed execution within secure, private environments
• 🔐 Independent third-party verification
• ⛓️ Final settlement on public blockchains such as Ethereum
📈 Its first application, Ondo Perps, enables perpetual futures trading using tokenized stocks as collateral—a unique step toward combining the strengths of TradFi and DeFi.
🏦 This reflects a broader shift in the RWA (Real-World Asset) space. Instead of competing by launching new blockchains, projects are increasingly focused on solving real-world challenges such as speed, privacy, compliance, and seamless integration with traditional financial markets.
If Ondo's approach succeeds, the future of tokenized assets may be driven less by new Layer 1s and more by specialized infrastructure that brings capital markets efficiently on-chain.
#SoftPCEStrongDemand #AMZNMissesButRallies Kioxia released its quarterly financial report for April-June on Friday afternoon, but the results ultimately fell short of market expectations. This also sends a signal: the AI-driven price surge in flash memory may be slowing down. Financial reports show that in the fiscal quarter ending June, Kioxia's revenue surged more than fourfold year-on-year to 1.77 trillion yen; operating profit was 1.27 trillion yen, a 27-fold increase year-on-year, but this figure was below the market expectation of 1.37 trillion yen; net profit was 842.17 billion yen, also below market estimates. Even though profits have exploded in recovery, they failed to meet expectations, sending a cooling signal to the already booming storage market. On Friday, Kioxia surged 17.7% at the close of the Japanese stock market, closing at 46,500 yen. Looking back at the market, in late June, the stock once surged to 112,700 yen, once becoming the top market value in Japan. In just one month, the price has already pulled back by more than 58%. Although quarterly earnings have rebounded sharply, earnings may fall short of expectations, which may shake market confidence in AI capital expenditure and the strong semiconductor sector. The continuous rise in flash memory prices has always been the core logic supporting Kioxia's valuation. The current market is not optimistic: Samsung, $SKHY Hynix, and Kioxia themselves are all working on production expansion. According to TrendForce's forecast, memory chips will see an oversupply in the second half of 2027, which is a key trigger for the recent sharp pullback in the semiconductor sector. Another major piece of news: Bain Capital sold all its armor holdings in early JulyThe moment the doji line pressed down on KOSPI's daily candlestick, what I saw was a bullet hole—a 17% drop in three days, indicating the bears were cleaning the mines; A 14% rebound in one day means someone traded their entire magazine for a single breath. SK Hynix jumped 28%, Samsung Electronics surged 26%. This isn't a rebound—it's a hand reaching out from a pile of corpses.
The anemometer on the passenger side was still running. Wind comes from three sources: Choi Tae-won first got into the Hynix handicap for the first time, where a sniper wipes his scope before entering the field; The rebound of U.S. storage chips is like a scout waving a flashlight three times; South Korea's foreign exchange intervention boosted the won by 2%, instantly changing the position of the shield. The bullet came out of the 1418-point mark, pierced through three trading days of backlogged short stop orders, and pierced all the hesitation on the last day of July. Those single-share leveraged products that only launched in May are the tracer bullets from this round—XSKHY, KR200, SAMSUNG—each tracing a frenzied trajectory in the air, tearing the waves into pieces.
I lurked in the shadows of the chip distribution chart. During the three days of cloudy decline, my cross line did not shift by even a millimeter. Extreme P/L ratios never occur during the busiest moments of the market, but rather in the moment when everyone pulls the trigger and the barrel still has some warmth. Today is not entry day, today is validation day—to verify whether those stop-loss orders have been completely broken, and to verify whether the bulls have only taken advantage of the waterfall's momentum to plunge an inch higher. The amplitude of leveraged ETFs far exceeds the breathing limits of fundamentals, like seeing a humanoid target fire ten times through a sniper scope, each shot possibly missing the heart by two centimeters.
A real killer only hits once. When the wind stopped, when the wreckage settled, when Han Yuan returned to the calm water below 1,400, then that shot would be fatal. Today's candlestick is just a warning bullet."CLARITY Act: From the Last Kick to the 'Infinite Delay'—The Crossroads of U.S. Crypto Regulation"
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1. Bill Positioning: End the decade-long supervision of vague top-level design
The Digital Asset Market Structure Act (referred to as the CLARITY Act) is the most significant federal regulatory legislation for digital assets proposed by the U.S. Congress between 2025 and 2026. Its core goal is to end the decade-long jurisdictional battle between the SEC and the CFTC, providing a unified federal regulatory framework for the issuance, trading, and intermediary activities of digital assets.
The Act establishes a dual regulatory bridge: the SEC is responsible for the primary market issuance and sale of "ancillary assets" and "investment contract assets," while the CFTC leads spot trading, custody, and intermediary operations for "digital commodities." Once a token meets the "decentralized" criteria, it can legally transfer from the SEC's regulatory scope to the CFTC's jurisdiction, thereby gaining a more relaxed trading and listing environment. Additionally, the bill establishes a safe haven for non-managed developers, clarifying that developers who only publish open-source code are not considered money transmitters; At the same time, stablecoins will be placed under independent regulatory boundaries, and all digital asset intermediaries will be required to fulfill anti-money laundering obligations under the Bank Secrecy Act.
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2. Legislative Process: From a landslide in the House of Representatives to an indefinite shelving in the Senate
The bill's progress was once seen as "unstoppable." On May 29, 2025, House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill officially proposed H.R. 3633; On July 17 of the same year, the House of Representatives passed the bill by an overwhelming margin of 294 votes to 134. After entering the Senate, on May 14, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee passed the bill by a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, making it seem certain that the bill will be implemented before the end of the year.
However, entering the summer of 2026, Senate Majority Leader Thune shifted priorities to sanctions against Russia and personnel appointments, and the bill's vote was repeatedly postponed. The Senate enters state working from August 10 to September 11, and Thune has publicly stated that "it is unlikely to schedule a full House vote before September." In the forecast market, the probability of the bill passing before year-end has plummeted from 82% in February to the current 35% to 37%—Polymarket is even as low as 26%, and Kalshi is slightly higher at 37%. If the 2026 election window is missed, and the bill is pushed back until after 2029 if the Democrats win any chamber of Congress,
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3. Three Core Controversies, Each Is a 'Roadblock'
First, ethical provisions have become the biggest political obstacle. The Democrats insist on prohibiting the issuance or holding of crypto tokens by senior federal officials, including the president, during their term. This provision directly targets Trump's interests—it is revealed that by 2025, he will have over $1.4 billion in revenue from crypto-related businesses. Two Democratic senators who previously supported the bill have clearly warned that without proper ethical constraints, they will withdraw their final support.
Second, the stablecoin yield clause has sparked fierce opposition from the banking sector. The bill allows stablecoin issuers or trading platforms to distribute earnings to users, which commercial banking groups see as "disguised interest payments bypassing deposit insurance" and is expected to be adjusted at least partially before being submitted to a full house vote.
Third, DeFi protocols are difficult to implement anti-money laundering obligations. Regulators require decentralized protocols to bear penetrative KYC responsibilities, but the industry believes this is technically nearly impossible. Although the bill provides a safe harbor exemption for purely technical development activities, it requires front-end interfaces to fulfill AML obligations. This intermediate approach neither fully satisfies regulators nor completely alleviates industry compliance anxiety. Additionally, Republican Senator Hawley holds a "very resistant" attitude toward the bill overall and has not previously supported related crypto legislation, further weakening bipartisan consensus.
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4. Market Impact: Passing or Delaying, Two Completely Different Scripts
If the bill ultimately passes, institutions like JPMorgan Chase are expected to greatly encourage institutional capital to enter. After eliminating uncertainty in token classification, the participation threshold for banks, exchanges, and custodians will be significantly lowered, and the adoption of stablecoins in payment scenarios is expected to expand, leading to a substantial increase in regulated digital asset trading activity in the United States.
But if the bill continues to be delayed or even shelved, the consequences will be equally far-reaching. Analysts warn that every day of delay causes "irreversible" damage to the native public chain ecosystem. Trillion-dollar RWA (Real-World Assets) increments may be absorbed by traditional permissioned chains, rather than flowing into public networks like Ethereum and Solana. Meanwhile, listed companies and Wall Street institutions will adopt more conservative allocation strategies during the compliance vacuum period, and the valuation ceiling of the entire crypto market will be suppressed for a long time. Although SEC Chairman Atkins has publicly expressed optimism and offered technical assistance, and Treasury Secretary Becent has called for an immediate vote, in the context of political polarization in this election year, core differences such as ethical provisions are difficult to bridge in the short term.
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5. Summary of the current situation
The CLARITY Act is stuck in an awkward 'high expectations, low probability' situation. It carries all the industry's expectations for regulatory clarity, yet is firmly held back by political maneuvering and technical challenges. The summer recess of 2026 is about to end, and the autumn election campaign will fully unfold, with less than two months left for the substantive voting window of the bill. Whether or not it ultimately succeeds, the fate of this bill will become a watershed moment in the history of U.S. digital asset regulation—it will not only determine the direction of U.S. regulation, but also profoundly influence the future valuation system of the global crypto market.
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5% What events are brewing next that must be watched!!
1. Whether the ETF has continuously attracted funds
A single-day figure of 233 million yuan is very impressive. If net inflows can be maintained over the next two days, then below 63,000 yuan will be more stable. If I transfer out immediately tomorrow, today is just a day trip.
2. CLARITY Voting Expectations
Bescent publicly urged the Senate to vote immediately, and Tom Lee was also building momentum. This repeatedly disturbs the mood. Passage is a catalyst; if it continues to be shelved, it will return to the uncertainty of SEC self-regulation.
3. Secondary pricing following Coinbase / Strategy's earnings report
COIN's after-hours decline, and regular trading once showed signs of gains, indicating significant divergence. If trading targets continue to weaken, it will drag down risk appetite in the sector.
4. Will the 62,000 to 65,000 container units be opened?
The upper range ranges from 65,000 to 66,000 yuan, and the lower range from 62,000 to 63,000 yuan. Today's pullback will test the lower boundary even more. If the price drops below the level of low volatility after high volume, it may accelerate further. Volume increases and it climbs back above 65,000 yuan; only by repairing can there be quality.
5. Geopolitics and oil prices
The prospects for US-Iran negotiations remain unclear, and the rhetoric related to Hormuz continues. Oil prices and risk appetite can be whipped at any moment.
6. Whether the liquidation is escalating again
Today, about 212 million was liquidated within 24 hours, which is milder than a few days ago. If it returns to the hundreds of millions level with many main drops, the rebound would be very unlikely. If the main short-term market starts to blow out, it will look more like a bear buying rally.
7. Equity tokens / stablecoins / AI mining companies
These are mid-term incremental clues; they don't determine tomorrow's price movement, but decide who will flow in first in the next round.The Korean stock market has been quite surreal these past couple of days.
A few days ago, it dropped like AI was about to disappear, today it rose like AGI and opened up tomorrow morning.
Samsung and SK Hynix both hit record profits, yet their stock prices continued to plummet. The reason is simple: memory chips are a highly cyclical industry.
Just because you earn a lot now doesn't mean you'll keep earning in the future.
The market is already worried about expanding production too quickly, Chinese storage companies caught up, and whether AI companies can continue burning money like this.
Financial reports answer the past, while stock prices worry about the future.
This reminds me of crypto.
In the crypto world, it's common for a few influential people to post their opinions, and market sentiment immediately shifts. But they are more like loudspeakers, not steering wheels.
When the market is rich and everyone is waiting for signals, just shouting casually will get people to follow. Once liquidity is gone, shouting hoarse won't help.
Recently, Robinhood Chain became popular, and many meme players on BSC rushed to join it. The assets themselves may not have changed much; it's just that attention and capital have shifted to different locations.
The cycles of crypto and stocks are quite different.
Stocks are based on inventory, capacity, profits, and industry supply and demand. Crypto focuses more on liquidity, narrative, and sentiment. Most tokens lack a stable value anchor, so they rise faster and are less honorable when the tide recedes.
But the two sides share one similarity:
The busiest times in an industry are often the times when people most easily forget the cycles.
Everyone thinks AI demand will keep growing, any chain will always have new users, and a meme will always have someone to take over. It all sounds pretty reasonable, until the price starts charging tuition.
So now, when investing, I am less and less trying to guess whether tomorrow will rise or fall.
What I care about more is: Where has this round of the market gone? If it suddenly drops 50%, can I still live a normal life, continue starting my business, and not be forced to sell the shares I truly favor?
This is also why I create the "Three Horses" model.
Homestays and physical businesses provide me with stable cash flow; AI and early Alpha players are responsible for the ceiling battle; For stocks and BTC, which are long-term promising assets, try not to use leverage and take your time to acquire them.
This setup isn't necessarily smart, but at least it helps me fall asleep.
Making money must go with the flow, but you also need to know when the wind might stop.
The cycle will not notify you in advance.
It usually deducts tuition 😄 directly from your account when you feel most confident$MMT
No new project benefits, pure rotation of funds driving the market forward. During the rally phase, it attracts follow-up capital, but after reaching strong resistance, early profit-taking chips concentrate and exit, leading to insufficient follow-up buying, resulting in a direct pullback after the surge.
During the rally phase, volume increases; during the pullback, trading volume also expands, indicating that there is real selling and exit at high levels, not a technical shakeout.
With small circulating volume, the top ten addresses have high position concentration, and even a small amount of selling orders can trigger a rapid pullback; 80% of tokens are locked and unlocked monthly, so medium- to long-term selling pressure risks still exist. Business profits do not feed back into tokens; token prices depend entirely on capital and sector sentiment.
The popularity of the Sui ecosystem is showing a marginal decline; The BTC market did not continue its strong upward momentum, lacking the support of market increments, making it difficult for the small-cap coin impulse to sustain.1. Current Market Background: The Fed's "Hawkish Pause" sets the tone
On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% with a vote of 9 in favor and 3 against, marking the fifth consecutive time holding it unchanged. However, three opposing votes (all supporting a 25 basis point hike) appeared for the first time since 2016, highlighting serious concerns about inflation within policymakers.
Chairman Wash made it clear that he would not provide forward-looking guidance, and that policy would be "entirely data-dependent." The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield immediately broke through 5.2%, reaching a new high since 2007. The market interprets this as: high interest rates will "last longer" — this continues to suppress valuation in tech stocks that rely on discounted forward cash flows.
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2. US Stock Market: Structural Shifts Amid Intense Volatility
Recent performance
After the July 29 resolution, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell at the close: the Dow fell 2.19% (the largest single-day drop since April 2025), the S&P 500 dropped 1.52% to 7,316 points, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.74% to 24,442 points.
However, on July 30, boosted by strong earnings reports from tech giants like Microsoft, the three major indices rebounded sharply: the S&P 500 rose 1.66% to close at 7,437.63, the Nasdaq rose 2.78% to 25,122.18, and the Dow rose 1.19% to 52,208.06. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 8.19%, ending a five-day losing streak.
Core Driving Factors
1. AI Narratives Shift from "Storytelling" to "Calculate Returns"
Microsoft's earnings report marks a pivotal turning point: Azure cloud revenue surged 43%, the largest increase since early 2022, with free cash flow reaching $19.6 billion. Microsoft's stock price surged 15.51%, marking the largest single-day gain since October 2008, with its market value increasing by $450 billion in a single day.
But the divergence was equally sharp: Meta's stock fell for 11 consecutive trading days due to expectations that free cash flow would turn negative for the first time in the second half of the year; Google's capital expenditure surged to $45.9 billion, and free cash flow posted its first single-quarter negative in over a decade. Among the seven giants, only Apple and Nvidia currently outperform the S&P 500 index.
2. The semiconductor sector has entered a technical bear market
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose over 100% in the first half of the year, but the iShares Semiconductor ETF has fallen more than 20% from its June peak, officially entering a technical bear market. July may record its worst monthly performance since 2008.
3. Market style shift: The Nasdaq underperformed the Dow
As of July 27, the Nasdaq's total year-to-date return was 7.8%, lagging behind the S&P 500's 9% and the Dow's 9.1%. Funds are shifting from AI and semiconductor sectors to blue-chip sectors such as consumer and industrials.
Institutional perspective
· AllianceBernstein Fund: Capital expenditure of large technology companies will account for nearly 98% of operating cash flow by year-end. Volatility in tech stocks may increase significantly in the second half of the year, but this is not a bubble burst; rather, it is a process of recalibrating valuation expectations.
· AAII survey: Bearish ratio surged to 42.3%, while bullish dropped to 29.6%, the lowest since September 2022.
· Wall Street forecast: Some institutions believe U.S. stocks may still have 5%-8% downside potential, but the time to buy the dip is approaching.
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3. Crypto Market: Resilience Amid Sideways Fluctuations
Recent performance
As of July 30, Bitcoin was about $63,980, Ethereum about $1,910, Solana about $73.90, and XRP about $1.07.
In terms of July performance, Bitcoin rose about 9% from around $58,700 at the beginning of the month to near $64,000; Ethereum performed better, rebounding about 22% from its July low, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate briefly rebounded.
Core features
1. Correlation with U.S. stocks has dropped to multi-year lows
K33 Research points out that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and Nasdaq is near multi-year lows, and volatility is also at multi-year lows. Bitcoin's response to macroeconomic events is weakening. For most of July, Bitcoin was highly correlated with semiconductor stocks, but recently it has shown greater resilience—after shocks such as the $797 billion evaporation of the seven major US stocks in a single day and the sharp drop in the Korean stock market, Bitcoin has remained stable.
2. Market sentiment remains cautious
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 28, in the "fear" range. Bitcoin's dominance rate is close to 59%, indicating that investors are more inclined to hold BTC over altcoins during times of uncertainty.
3. High regulatory uncertainty
The U.S. CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Clarity Act) faces its greatest uncertainty since its introduction. The Senate is not expected to pass it before the August recess, and market forecasts indicate the bill's approval probability has dropped to 37% before the end of the year. SEC Chairman Atkins stated that if the bill does not pass, the SEC is "ready at any time" to introduce its own crypto market rules.
Three scenario prospects
According to analysis by Gate Research Institute:
· Scenario 1 (Inflation falls, Fed cuts rates): Bitcoin may rebound to $70,000-75,000, Ethereum may enter the $2,400-$2,600 range.
· Scenario 2 (Interest rates remain high for longer, baseline scenario): Bitcoin is stuck between $60,000-66,000, while Ethereum struggles to break through $2,000.
· Scenario 3 (Another rate hike): Bitcoin may break below the $60,000 support level, with a downside target of $55,000-$57,000.
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4. Summary of the two major market comparisons
Dimension US stock crypto market
Recent trends have been highly volatile, driven by financial reports with sharp fluctuations, moving sideways and fluctuating, with volatility at low levels
Core narrative: AI investment return verification decoupling from macro and regulatory games
Market sentiment: The bearish ratio rose to 42.3%, with the fear index at 28, still leaning defensive
Key variables: capital expenditure growth, inflation data, CLARITY Act, Federal Reserve path
Both markets are currently at a crossroads of direction choice—the focus of the U.S. stock market is on whether AI capital spending can continue to translate into cash flow returns, while the crypto market is focused on the Federal Reserve's policy path and regulatory framework implementation. The September FOMC meeting (to release the latest dot plot) and inflation data will be key moments determining the direction of the second half of the year.🔥Meta dropped a $700 billion bomb, yet its stock price crashed 7%! What exactly is the market afraid of?
Guys, Meta exploded again last night—
But this time it wasn't good news. Meta has just disclosed that it has committed nearly $700 billion in future spending through long- and short-term agreements, all invested in AI data centers and cloud computing. Of this, $349.3 billion is irrevocable contract commitments, mainly involving third-party cloud services, servers, and network infrastructure. There is also $347 billion in lease commitments that have not yet begun and are not reflected on the balance sheet. In July alone, $68 billion was added.
Then the market's reaction was summed up in two words: it collapsed.
The stock price dropped about 7.5% in after-hours trading. In one day, its market value evaporated by about $175 billion.
Why? It's not that revenue is lacking, it's that the accounts can't keep up.
Meta's Q2 revenue was $60.8 billion, up 28% year-over-year, actually exceeding expectations. Advertising revenue reached $59.4 billion, a growth rate of 27%, with both volume and price rising. Looking at these numbers alone, there is no problem.
But when you turn to the cash flow page, the picture shifts dramatically—operating cash flow is $31.86 billion, capital expenditure is $31.08 billion, and free cash flow is down to $784 million. Last year, the figure was 8.55 billion. Within a year, 91% evaporated.
At the same time, the 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised, narrowing from 125-145 billion to 130-145 billion. The lower limit has been raised by 5 billion, and actual investment intensity is still increasing. Even more aggressively, JPMorgan predicts that capital expenditure could reach $243 billion by 2027.
The core anxiety in the market boils down to one sentence: money is spent, how can it be earned?
Microsoft has Azure, and AI computing power can be sold directly to customers. Amazon has AWS, and demand is chasing production capacity. What does Meta have? Only advertising.
AI is indeed helping Meta improve ad recommendations—Advantage+ has already generated over $75 billion in annual revenue. However, advertising growth (27%) is far behind capital expenditure growth (83%). Profit margins dropped from 43% to 31%.
Zuckerberg said during the conference call that he had received many computing power lease offers far above cost, but he refused to "sell computing power for short-term profits." He is betting on "selling intelligence"—making AI agents, personalized assistants, and business tools.
The logic makes sense, but the market has no patience to wait. AI commercialization paths, monetization timelines, and capital recovery cycles—all are uncertain.
There is an even harsher detail: off-balance-sheet financing.
Meta formed a joint venture with BlackRock, holding only 20% of its shares, backed by a 20-year lease commitment. Turn one-time capital expenditures into multi-year rent and guarantee obligations. A single project in Texas issued $12.5 billion in bonds, with yields soaring to 7.5%. Borrowing costs are rising, and Wall Street is beginning to "digest it."
Cash on hand was $90.26 billion. But the $700 billion pool is too big—so big that Meta is unwilling to rely solely on operating cash flow to hold on.
A 700 billion pledge, a 7% decline.
Revenue exceeded expectations, but the market did not buy in. No matter how well the AI story is told, when free cash flow drops to just 784 million, capital is voting with its feet.
Guys, do you think Zuckerberg's 700 billion gamble was right, or is the AI bubble about to burst? Let's talk in 👇 the comments This round of plunge is a stress test for your position.
Looking at it roughly, there are currently only four types of people and four different endings on the timeline.
SanDisk halved in one month and then rebounded 26% in one day; Hynix rebounded 17% after breaking below issue price; Microsoft rose 15% in one day, setting an eighteen-year record. After the recent market run, everyone's positions have indeed been completely wiped out.
Your level doesn't need anyone to judge; it's clearly written on your account.
Looking at the timeline, there are roughly four types of people in this round.
The first is the right direction, but you die on leverage.
Monitor storage carefully, and your judgment is sound. But with leverage, or a full position with no cash left. You can hold out for the first three days, but on the fourth day, you can't, get forced to draw, or get cut yourself. Then on the fifth day, Microsoft's earnings report exploded, and everything was pulled back.
Leopold is a magnified version of this kind of person: a 20 billion fund, all the direction right, exposed for using borrowed funds, now searching everywhere for money to survive. Country Garden is the same—after choosing Changxin, it was forced by debt to cut losses before dawn.
This group is the most wronged. He saw nothing wrong, except he didn't leave himself any room to survive...
The second type is the right direction and drowned out by noise.
No leverage, cash remained, and the position structure was fine. But after three consecutive days of decline, I panicked. The timeline was filled with words like "It's over," "Collapsed," and "Rare in history." Someone in the group posted a clearance screenshot claiming they had become legendary, and people around them started asking, "Aren't you running yet?"
I carried it for two days, then sold it on the most panicked morning. The night Microsoft finished selling, Microsoft's earnings came out, and the market rebounded completely.
The problem with such people isn't money, but that they treat others' panic as their own judgment. The person who shouts loudest on the timeline is often not the one holding the heaviest position. The voices you should hear most are always in your own portfolio logic, not in others' comment sections.
Third, if the direction is right, the location is overpriced.
Confidence in storage is fine, but it chased near the highest point. The costs are still there; a 20% drop is already unbearable. Then he cut it off, and the conclusion was "storage is no longer enough."
Whether storage works or not, SK Hynix's 557% profit growth and 76% profit margin have already been answered. It's not that storage is no longer possible, it's that you overpaid the price. For the same ticket, where you buy it determines how much volatility you can handle. If you are in the wrong position, even a good company can make you lose money.
The fourth type is doing nothing wrong.
No leverage, holding cash, not high position, and the direction is right. When it drops, it feels tough but doesn't move; when it rebounds, it breathes a sigh of relief but doesn't chase.
This round of experience for such people is "painful but alive." No shining moments of Fengshen, but also not being strangled.
Not sexy, but effective.
Looking back at these four endings, none of them were caused by "looking in the wrong direction." There are too many people who have chosen the right direction this month—there are plenty of you can catch them.
The gap lies in three areas.
Do you have leverage? For those with leverage, the market doesn't need you to be wrong; it just needs large enough volatility to kill you. Whether your direction is right or not is no longer your concern, because you won't live to see the day your direction is fulfilled.
Where do you buy from? The location determines how much bump you can handle. The same ticket costs 20% different, and the mindset is completely different. One can endure it, the other cannot, and the ending is separated.
Can you stay quiet amid the noise? This month, opinions are the most abundant on the timeline. Some are calling for a crash, some are calling for bottom-fishing, some are posting clearance to become legendary, some are showing off their floating profits. Whose advice do you listen to? Don't listen to anyone, just listen to the reason you bought in the first place. Whether that reason still exists is more important than the opinions of a hundred bloggers.
These three things you can check right now. You don't have to wait for the next crash to study; by then, tuition will be real money.
Open your account and ask yourself three questions. I don't have leverage. How much cash do I have left? If it drops another 20% tomorrow, can I stay put?
If you can answer all three questions, there's a high chance you'll pass the next stress test. There's one who can't answer, so while the market is recovering, we'll fix it.
Every sharp drop is a free check-up. #美股加密标的承压, token price volatility affects financial reports #财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, but stock price rebounded by 9% #苹果第三财季业绩超预期, with a sharp drop in after-hours trading #PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
The US economy is 'on both sides of ice and fire': Is the cooling of inflation just a fake crash?
· PCE turned negative month-on-month, mainly due to the "futile effort" of energy price cuts
· GDP fell short of expectations, but endogenous momentum hit a one-year high
What seems like a perfect combination of "lower inflation + slow growth" actually involves undercurrents. Core inflation remains stubborn (3.3%), while consumer spending remains strong (3.2%). Cooled on the surface, highly resilient inside.
Expectations for a rate hike in September cooled, stocks rose, bonds fell, and gold rose. The Fed is caught in a dilemma, and in the future, it will depend on the "mood" of oil prices and wages. #美联储纪要: Interest rate hikes have been discussed, but rates remain unanimously maintained MU surged nearly 20% in a single day, and many people felt the market had returned.
But I think what really matters is not the stock price, but the logic behind it has changed.
A few days ago, MU was one of the worst-performing stocks in the entire AI hardware sector.
The market is concerned about high AI capital expenditures and peak demand; MU's cumulative drop in one month once exceeded 25%, and many people have begun to shout that "the storage cycle is over."
But once Microsoft and Amazon's earnings reports came out, the tide suddenly shifted.
Microsoft not only continues to increase AI capital expenditures but also emphasizes that free cash flow remains healthy; Amazon also raised its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 from $200 billion to $220 billion.
In short:
AI hasn't cooled down; on the contrary, it's continuing to pour money into it.
And for every additional server added to AI, besides GPU, HBM and DRAM are the most indispensable.
This is precisely MU's core business.
So yesterday, MU's surge nearly 20% wasn't because the market suddenly fell in love with Micron, but because the previous worry that "AI won't spend money" logic has been overturned by the earnings report.
But here, I'm actually a bit cautious.
MU itself has not announced any new major positive news; it is more focused on trading the expected recovery brought by Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple.
In particular, Apple's CEO mentioned that memory costs will rise in the coming quarters, indicating that demand for high-end storage remains tight and further stimulating market sentiment.
Here comes the question.
If companies like Meta and NVIDIA continue to prove that AI investment can still be profitable, then MU's rebound may just be the beginning.
However, if capital expenditure begins to slow down, Micron will still be unable to escape the high volatility and high cycle characteristics of the storage industry.
So I won't chase just because of a big surge in one day.
What I'm more concerned about is:
Is AI a genuine need, or just another emotional trade?
MU's next focus is not on how much it rises in a single day, but on whether major companies will continue to buy memory frantically in the coming quarters.
This is what truly determines MU's height. $MUU 🔹$ZEC’s move to Ironwood is picking up serious speed.
In the last 48 hours, 11.1% of the Orchard pool has migrated — that’s 9,395 ZEC per hour.
At this pace, Ironwood should flip Sapling today and become Zcash’s second-largest shielded pool.
This isn’t just a version update. It’s a real shift in Zcash’s privacy core — faster, more efficient, more secure.
From migration rate to hash rate, momentum looks solid. Short term, Ironwood cements Zcash’s lead in privacy tech. Long term, pool migration tells you more about real network activity than price does.
For anyone tracking $ZEC, this is a strong signal to stay bullish. 🚀
#AMZNMissesButRallies
#SoftPCEStrongDemand
#MSFT450BInADay Microsoft rose by $450 billion last night. No company in human history has ever made so much money in a single day. The reason for the rise is straightforward: Azure cloud grew by 43%, exceeding expectations; The capital expenditure guidance was cut from 190 billion to 175 billion, saving 15 billion. Income accelerates, spending less. The market gave it the largest single-day market capitalization increase in human history. Tonight, Amazon rose as well, with 9% pre-market gains. Because its AWS cloud revenue reached 42.2 billion, a 36.7% increase, accelerating for the fifth consecutive quarter and the fastest in eighteen quarters. Backlog of orders is 496 billion, with a profit margin of 39%. Capital expenditure remained at 200 billion, with no cuts. South Korea's KOSPI rose 16% on the same day, marking the largest single-day gain in history. SK Chairman Chey Tae-won increased his holdings by 3,620 shares, spending $3.31 million—precisely below the 5 billion Korean won pre-disclosure red line, which is the largest amount he could buy without announcing thirty days in advance. What you buy isn't stocks, but news headlines. Supporting actions: Exchanges began internal inspections of the technical feasibility of banning short selling and price fluctuation reduction, and the finance minister apologized for leveraged ETFs. Three parties on the same page. What is written on the prescription is more worth reading than the carnival itself. First, let's break up Amazon's accounts. The market applauds it for one number: AWS has accelerated. But the market didn't ask four questions. First question: Of this 36.7%, how much is AI? AWS experienced about 20% natural growth before the AI narrative took off—cloud migration took ten yearsFirst, you need to understand
The reason for the price hikes for flower rolls and half-baked cheese is the rise in flour prices. You only see factories stocking up, but you end up with those that can no longer buy flour or simply can't produce flour. Congratulations, you've bought another great company.
So when will it end? Actually, it's already over, and the inventory is almost gone. The inventory they report now is no longer the price of unsold flour compared to before; it can be said to have skyrocketed. So whether they sell flower rolls or half-baked cheese, they don't make money
For the beautiful country, you can serve your own feast, but who allows you to eat big dishes? I have to beat you up. For the elderly 🀄️, aren't you trying to show off? Aren't you high-tech? Just wait and see if I pay attention to you. Everyone, please stay calm
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history Although the crypto market was calm in the second quarter, exchange giant Coinbase was far from idle. According to the latest disclosures, they quietly increased their holdings by 819 Bitcoins between April and June. By calculation, Coinbase's vault currently holds a total of 17,311 Bitcoins. This holding ranks ninth among known companies worldwide, ahead of familiar names like MicroStrategy and Tesla. This news itself isn't explosive, but considering Coinbase's recent Q2 earnings report, it's somewhat interesting. Their total revenue in Q2 was $1.5 billion, which is indeed up year-on-year, but it didn't reach the line drawn by Wall Street analysts. Adjusted net profit was $33 million, and another less encouraging figure was that there were 1 million fewer trading users than the previous quarter. $BTC On one hand, user trading enthusiasm seems to have cooled a bit; on the other, companies quietly buy coins on the secondary market. This move hints at a sense of "unity of knowledge and action." While exchanges rely on trading volume, the company's treasure-level still seems confident in Bitcoin's long-term value. After all, after years of struggling in the industry, their understanding of Bitcoin on-chain data is deeper than that of most institutions. Additionally, Coinbase's holdings currently rank ninth among known corporate entities worldwide. Leading the list of familiar faces include MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Block.one. This pattern is short-termWhen a rumor of "buy-in" is heard, the most expensive thing is often not the stocks
On the screen, $SNDK rose nearly 30% overnight. The red numbers were crowded together, as if the bearish candlestick from a few days ago had been erased.
The market started telling the most handy story again: a young AI star fund manager failed with high leverage, Citadel first released a rate hike narrative to suppress the market, then took over chips at a low point; Once the deal was settled, the heavily held stocks collectively rebounded.
The story is very complete. So complete that you want to ask: Who paid the bill in this story?
But here, several layers of things must be taken apart.
If a fund is indeed forced to reduce positions due to leverage, AI position drawdowns, and software short losses, then "passive selling" itself is not unusual. What is truly expensive is not selling at a low price, but that when others can still choose prices, you are left with only the qualification to accept the price.
As for the causal chain of "Citadel causing panic, forcing liquidations, and buying at low prices," these can only be considered market narratives and cannot be treated as confirmed facts. It requires simultaneously reviewing position transfer documents, trading times, capital flows, public statements, and regulatory materials; without any of these links, the motive cannot be written as a conclusion.
However, this rumor still reveals a less romantic market fact:
When a fund ties returns, scale, and leverage too tightly, a market downturn is not the only risk; The risk is losing the right to wait.
Others look at valuations, but they first look at margin.
Others can negotiate prices, but they can only handle the terms.
Names like $SNDK, Micron, Nebius, and CoreWeave later surged but may not automatically prove who was "setting the game precisely." Short-term rebounds may come from oversold repairs, short covering, changes in order expectations, or a warming of overall market risk appetite. The results are dramatic and do not mean cause and effect have been confirmed.
The most unsettling aspect of the capital market is not that someone misjudged a stock.
It's that when you have to sell, everyone at the table knows you have to sell.
#"AI Stock God" funds liquidate positions, Micron rises over 15% in a single day
#PCE环比转负, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%
#财报观察员: Amazon's guidance falls short of expectations, yet stock price rises 9% 🚨 Imagine waking up to find $38 million in Bitcoin gone—not because you leaked your seed phrase, but because of a flaw in how your wallet generated its keys.
That's the claim currently making headlines across the crypto community.
According to reports, around $38 million worth of BTC may have been stolen through an alleged vulnerability affecting Coldcard wallet key generation. The wallet's creator has also suggested that AI could have played a role in identifying the weakness.
If these claims are confirmed, the takeaway is bigger than a single wallet.
It’s a reminder that crypto security doesn’t stop at protecting your seed phrase. It also depends on whether you can trust the tools that create it.
Whether you're an active trader or a long-term holder, this is a story worth watching as more details emerge.
In crypto, your security is only as strong as the weakest link.
Stay informed, verify information from trusted sources, and always follow security best practices.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Coldcard #CyberSecurity #DailyOrbit#DailyOrbit $CFX Listed on Upbit and opened the Korean won trading pair. The event itself has already priced in, but the core issue is whether this liquidity injection can turn into sustained structural buying. The pattern of surges and pullbacks after listing the Korean Stock Exchange is an unavoidable historical benchmark.
On the factual side, this launch was unpredictable, without sponsor endorsements, and no channel fee narrative, meaning the market had almost no prior information advantage in building positions. The shock of sudden listings on positions is one-way—holders passively benefit, bears passively bear pressure, but this shock usually completes price corrections within 24-48 hours.
Driver ranking: First, the incremental liquidity entry brought by the Korean won itself. The initial buying impulse of unfamiliar stocks in the Korean retail market has always been strong; Second, the project team's ongoing efforts in stablecoins, payments, RWA, and AI provide narrative support, but such narratives require time to materialize and have limited marginal short-term contribution to price; Third, with the KBW window approaching, the exposure in Seoul will act as a temporary emotional catalyst.
Upward scenario: If the Korean won pair maintains a significant increase in daily trading volume within 48 hours after launch, without concentrated selling pressure, it can be judged to be driven by genuine demand rather than a pure upline pulse. The trigger condition is sustained depth and a pullback amplitude less than 20%. Variables to watch: KRW order thickness and the linkage rally of other major exchanges. Failure signal: trading volume rapidly shrinks to pre-price levels within 72 hours.
Downside scenario: After the Han exchange was listed, it surged and then pulled back, a pattern that can be traced. If initial buying is digested and lacks follow-up capital, the price will enter a phase of oscillating digestion, with the narrative quickly shifting from long-termism to short-term liquidity selling. The trigger condition is that the Korean won has concentrated deep, thin, and large sell orders. Variables to observe: the behavior of addresses transferring large amounts on-chain into exchanges. Failure signal: If project teams or ecosystem funds show obvious increase holdings on-chain, the downside scenario will have lower priority.
On the risk appetite transmission side, Upbit's listing itself has limited impact on overall market risk appetite, but the psychological impact on CFX holders' positions is substantial—a previously low-liquidity position suddenly exporting Korean won, and some long-term holders face pressure to decide whether to cash out. This position change itself is the most important price variable for the next 72 hours.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days: whether the average daily trading volume against the Korean won can stabilize above 30% of the first day after the third day; Whether the project team before and after KBW has announced new ecosystem progress; Whether there has been a significant change in the concentration of on-chain holding addresses.
#谷歌为AI数据中心债务兜底, in exchange for 20% equity. #以太坊主网十一周年: Eleven years of uninterrupted operation and ecosystem achievements🚨 The volatility of the U.S. stock market is now even higher than that of the crypto market.
In just two days, SanDisk gained 42.4%, while SK Hynix surged 40.7%.
Market sentiment is changing faster than most investors can react.
My view remains unchanged.
1️⃣ The AI revolution is not a bubble. It is a massive redistribution of capital.
Over the past few years, many AI-related companies have multiplied in value. A correction was inevitable.
However, the fundamentals remain strong:
• Microsoft continues to expand its AI revenue streams.
• SK Hynix is increasing capital expenditures.
• Demand for HBM memory keeps growing.
All of this suggests that AI infrastructure development is still accelerating.
2️⃣ I believe this is a recovery rally rather than the beginning of a new long-term bull market.
Two things need to happen before a sustainable uptrend can begin:
📌 The Federal Reserve needs to start cutting interest rates.
📌 AI investments need to generate consistent profits rather than simply increasing capital expenditures.
For now, high interest rates, elevated energy prices, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on market liquidity.
The hardest part of investing is not predicting the direction of the market but staying disciplined while everyone else is driven by emotion.
$SNDK $SKHY $XMU The US stock market is rebounding, and everyone is calling for a bull recovery—is it really a bull recovery?
Don't jump to conclusions simply
There are two types of rebounds after a decline:
One is a technical recovery, where it rebounds after a large drop;
The other is when funds return to the main theme, with the trend continuing.
Which do you think it is?
Is this rebound just a getaway, or is it the start of a new round of rotation?
Let's start with the data:
I believe AI is entering the 'profit verification phase.'
The core of this rebound is not just the rise in the index, but the market's renewed confidence:
AI investment ≠ pure cost
AI investment = future revenue growth
Microsoft's earnings have strengthened market confidence, and tech stocks and semiconductors have regained attention to capital. The Nasdaq rose about 2.8%, with the chip sector rebounding significantly.
Next, focus on three main themes:
(1) AI infrastructure
GPUs, servers, and data centers continue to benefit from computing power demand.
(2) AI commercialization
The market will shift from "which model is stronger" to "who can generate profits."
(3) Interest rate environment
U.S. Treasury yields remain the biggest variable for tech stock valuations.
The first stage of AI is speculating on imagination, and the second phase is about revenue
The real winners aren't necessarily the companies that tell the most AI stories, but those that turn AI into cash flow.
Finally, here is my conclusion: bottom-fishing don't need to panic. Opportunities never appear overnight. I predict the decline will likely continue to form a bottom. Let's see if this rebound can continue.
#美股 #AI #纳斯达克 #科技股
(This post is purely for sharing and discussion, and does not constitute investment advice.) 今日盘面出现明显特征：前期持续阴跌的底层公链币种迎来集中反弹，$CFX 等标的探底后拉出大阳线。在热点AI、MEME题材热度阶段性降温之后，场内资金开启“高低切换”，挖掘持续调整、估值处于低位的公链资产博弈补涨机会。 但是必须分清：本轮上涨大多属于技术性超跌反弹，绝大多数公链生态依旧面临新项目增量不足、用户增长缓慢的难题。单纯依靠资金轮动催生的行情持续性普遍偏弱。想要趋势反转，不能只依赖资金博弈，必须依靠生态落地、合作消息等实质性利好持续催化。操作上不宜把反弹当成反转，逢冲高需要警惕解套抛压。🟢 Short Liquidation Alert – $GIGGLE
$8.74K in short positions just got liquidated at $33.95.
Short sellers were forced to close as price moved higher, adding buying pressure to the market.
Keep an eye on volume and follow-through—this could be the start of stronger momentum if buyers stay in control.
#SoftPCEStrongDemand #AMZNMissesButRallies #MSFT450BInADay At the end of this round, I stopped short ETH, but switched to shorting BTC 📉
Previously, I used ETH as collateral, taking WBETH as margin, opening a short position in perpetual contracts with the same volume. This method has three advantages:
1️⃣ Efficiency equivalent to selling ETH spot, no leverage, no liquidation path.
2️⃣ No ETH staking interest, also receive funding fees from the long side.
3️⃣ The exchange only holds a small portion of ETH as collateral, reducing the risk of the exchange crashing or being hacked.
Now I switch to using WBETH as margin, shorting BTC spot with the same conversion 🎯 value
Reason: MSTR will most likely not buy BTC for a long time. While Bitmine continues to buy ETH, plus the development of RWA. It's possible that this bear is a repeat of the old scenario – BTC and ETH bottomed out at different times.
Previous round: ETH bottom 18/6/22 – ETH=882, BTC=17622, rate=0.0500. BTC Bottom 21/11/22 – ETH=1080, BTC=15476, Rate=0.0698.
This time it is likely to bottom ETH on 6/6/26 at 1506, so I switched to short BTC 🧠
EndMicrosoft surged 15.51% in a single day, with its market value soaring by $450 billion. Many in the crypto community just swiped away with a "None of my business" — a huge mistake. This is the most important macro positive for the Q3 crypto market.
The core anxiety on Wall Street over the past six months has been that AI spending burns cash without real returns. The nearly 8% drop in $META after its earnings report is proof: the market no longer rewards "daring to spend money," only revenue that can be realized. Microsoft directly shattered this anxiety: Azure revenue grew 43% year-over-year, annualized revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, Copilot paid users exceeded 30 million, and it even lowered capital expenditures for fiscal year 2027 — AI is not only starting to make money, but it no longer needs to burn cash recklessly.
Systemic risk in the US stock market has been lifted, the Nasdaq surged, the fear index plummeted, and risk appetite has fully rebounded. Massive amounts of sidelined funds dare not chase the giants at high prices, so they must seek high Beta outlets. The AI computing power track, which has the highest elasticity in the crypto market, is an excellent target.
Previously, projects like FET, $TAO, and $RNDR were undervalued due to concerns about an AI bubble. Now that logic has been disproven, capital outflows have already started, and the sector tokens have led the move. Stop fixating on Bitcoin price points and regulatory wrangling; even if just 1% of the $450 billion increment flows into crypto, that's $4.5 billion of fresh capital.Chen Fengxia ($CFX) was supported by Upbit's listing, including Korean won trading pairs. The director was greatly shocked, which was truly unexpected and understandable in hindsight.
This Upbit listing was very sudden, with almost no prior communication, nor was it a KBW Title Sponsor, and there was no so-called sky-high channel fee. This morning, I received many congratulations from friends and realized I had completed the Upbit listing.
Over the past five years, at the annual Seoul KBW conference, the director would contact and personally report on Chen Fengxia's project progress at the Upbit office. @joyzinweb3 submitted two complete listing applications (with a lot of content). The Upbit research team and its members came and went, and the director had built deep friendships with some friends who had already left. They were very honest and firmly insisted that there was no special channel for Upbit listing.
The director was moved by his Korean colleagues. Perhaps there really are people in this industry quietly following project teams that insist on long-termism and work hard to build, supporting them voluntarily without considering economic factors. Today is a day when long-termists and buidlers can briefly comfort and enjoy themselves~ We will continue to cultivate in stablecoins/payments/RWA/AI+ fields, living up to the expectations of our peers and community!
Chen Fengxia doesn't cry, keep going! This year's KBW, see you in Seoul! $CFX Capital rotation is still the entire game in crypto. The easiest trades are buy the uptrend, wait for momentum to slow, then short as capital and attention rotate elsewhere.
$ZEC, $HYPE, $LIT are all recent examples, but this pattern has been running for a long time.
I’m watching traders get mind-gamed by $ETH again. Slight outperformance vs $BTC, while $BTC just had a decent month.
BTC tends to rally in July and fade in August. With the tardfi takeover of crypto now complete, summer months are looking even less attractive.
Strong opinions, loosely held. If you’re buying the trend, great. Just don’t convince yourself price can only go up from here.
Take profits and be ready to flip your view when that momentum stalls.
Most moves are still driven by trend-following flows. That often comes before spot rallies. But the lack of real spot participation is still glaring.
Patience.#苹果第三财季业绩超预期, the stock price plunged sharply after hours
Apple's financial report is actually ironclad evidence that AI chips are eating away at consumer electronics
Apple released its penultimate earnings report before Cook stepped down. Revenue reached 109.4 billion yuan, the highest ever. iPhone sales reached 54.2 billion yuan, a record high. Then it fell 6% in after-hours trading, with its market value evaporating by over $300 billion overnight.
On the surface, it looks like "performance won, expectations lost." But I don't think it's that simple—this is a financial report telling you that "AI is taking over consumer electronics."
Apple's guidance for next quarter is only 9%-11% growth, while the market expects it to be above 12%. The difference of 1-3 percentage points isn't because Apple products are inadequate, but because they can't get enough chips and memory. Cook's exact words are "once-in-a-century" increases in storage costs. Apple's Macs and iPads have already raised prices, while iPhones have not. However, if supply constraints persist, prices will inevitably rise.
Do you know where the chips and memory went? AI data centers.
By 2026, 100% of N3 capacity will be sold out, with 60% taken by AI chip customers. A consumer electronics giant like Apple relies on the remaining AI chip production capacity to produce chips. AI servers are competing for capacity, consumer electronics are waiting for capacity—this is a structural contradiction within the supply chain.
So last night's Apple plunge was on the surface "guidance below expectations," but behind it was AI infrastructure squeezing the entire consumer electronics industry. This isn't Apple's problem—it's the entire industry being repriced by AI.
The same applies to the crypto world. Funds are concentrating on AI computing power, AI chips, and AI-related tokenized stocks. Nvidia, TSMC, and SK Hynix have surged faster than Apple—the market is telling you where your money is going.
I will continue to follow this direction and not rush to buy Apple at the bottom. Wait for signals of easing supply restrictions before making any decisions.
Let's talk in the comments: do you think Apple was wrongly killed or should keep falling?