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On the same day, both financial reports exceeded expectations, resulting in stock prices dropping. Many people immediately conclude that financial reports are useless, but this is too crude—these two stocks actually have completely different logic.
Let's start with AMD.
The issue isn't whether the financial report is good; it really is—revenue hit a record high of 11.54 billion, data center 6.72 billion, up 107% year-on-year, both beating expectations. The problem is, before the earnings report was released, the stock price had already surged 146% this year, reaching a 54-times P/E ratio.
This means the market has already priced in the idea that "AMD will deliver good results" in advance. So this quarter's overperformance is just "in line with expectations and slightly gaining," which is simply not enough for a stock that has risen 146%. What the market wants now is not to meet targets, but to be exaggerated beyond imagination.
Moreover, AMD's growth story is actually focused in the second half of the year—whether the Helios platform's Q3 volume ramp can be delivered is the key to whether the 54x P/E ratio can be sustained. This quarter, it only answered 'Is the present good?' and didn't ask 'Will the future be good enough?' The gap in the middle was the reason for the 8% drop in after-hours trading.
A classic case of buying the rumor, selling the news—the bullish stock rises before the earnings report is released, and the moment the report is released actually becomes the time to take profits.
Speaking of SpaceX, the logic is completely different.
Revenue was 7.8 billion, up 92% year-on-year, but the loss of 541 million was due to Starlink and AI infrastructure—a cost-driven loss, not a loss of blood. Looking at the financial report alone, there was actually no reason for the stock price to fall.
The real pressure comes from timing—the unlocking period is two days after the earnings release (8/6), with 911.5 million shares to be unlocked, which is more than the 640 million shares currently circulating in the market. The supply of chips instantly doubled, naturally pushing prices downward, regardless of whether the company made money.
The venture capital community is very straightforward: many early shareholders pledged their stocks to buy houses and cars, and after unlocking them, they really needed to cash out—this is "these people lack money," not "these people don't believe in the company." To some extent, SpaceX's decline is the market's early discount for selling pressure on 8/6; the earnings report is just two days before the unlock.
So when put together, the real commonality boils down to one sentence:
Stock prices have never scored "this quarter's performance," but rather "the expectations reflected by the current stock price."
AMD's is due to demand side expectations, while SpaceX faces supply-side structural pressure. On the surface, it's all 'good news but a drop,' but the underlying logic is completely different—this is why AMD's pullback is more likely to be a short-term correction, while SpaceX's decline will only be answered after selling pressure is digested after unlocking on 8/6.
If the same good news is falling but the market drops, how would you tell—is it that the financial reports are really useless, or did you simply not look at the benchmark for comparison?
$AMD $SPCX #美股 #財報季 #AI供應鏈 #闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages have sparked heated discussion
After the US stock market closed last night, $SPCX $AMD plunged, and SanDisk followed suit.
I thought it would go back to the 1200 mark, but unexpectedly, it went above 1400, probably reaching 1500 by now.
Currently, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are continuously expanding their AI data centers, tightening memory supply and causing prices to keep rising.
Industry insiders expect this supply-demand imbalance to continue into 2027.
Goldman Sachs clearly predicted before its earnings report that SanDisk's Q4 would be a "very strong quarter."
NAND flash supply and demand remain tight, with demand on mobile, PC, and data center sides recovering simultaneously. But the stock price has fallen from a high of 2354 at the end of June, down about 25% over the past month. When prices rise, AI storage is a supercycle; when prices fall, the market starts to worry about tech giants overheating their AI spending.
Same fundamentals, two different pricing. The purpose of financial reports is not to prove that "AI storage demand exists"—this is already a consensus; what the report should prove is "how much longer AI storage demand can last." The market needs to see that the gross margin of around 80% and the AI storage shortage can still be sustained. Guidance is much more important than the current figures.
Moreover, SanDisk will soon release its earnings report. If the report exceeds expectations, it will likely be a big pullback. If you want to short the position, it's better to wait until after the earnings report. That day, the on-chain activity was only comparable to when FTX collapsed
On July 31, a very unusual traffic jam occurred on the Bitcoin chain.
Cryptoquant's report pulled up the data for that day. The number of daily active Bitcoin addresses surged from 645,000 on July 30 to nearly 1 million in a single day, marking the highest level since December 10, 2024. And almost all of them are driven by the sending address, which means it's not someone buying inside, but someone moving things out.
They were moving small amounts of money. On that day, single transfers of less than 1 BTC totaled 39,600; by comparison, the wave after FTX's collapse was 39,900 BTC. Single transfers under $100,000 reached $3.2 billion, the highest since November 21, 2024. The amount of coins deposited by small-holders to exchanges has also surged to its highest level since February 6.
No need to guess the reason—it's the Coldcard incident. When users hear that their hardware wallet has a problem generating random numbers, their first reaction is to quickly move their coins to a new wallet or simply throw them into the exchange. Millions of addresses attacked simultaneously—that was the scene that day.
And there's a set of heavier numbers. Spending by long-term holders jumped from 269,000 BTC on July 30 to 406,000, the highest since January 14. This group is usually the least active; once they move, the chain chip structure has to be reshuffled.
Let me explain how to use this set of data. The surge in on-chain activity is neutral in itself; the key is the direction. This time, the sending address is driven by the exchange deposit and the exchange deposit is rising simultaneously, meaning the chips move from cold to hot addresses. In the short term, the circulating pool thickens, which is not good for the price. BTC has been holding down between 63,000 and 64,000 these past two days, with the 200-week average cost line right below that, which is closely related to the chips from this batch of passive moves.
But there's a key difference here, which needs to be explained. This move wasn't panic selling, but a passive relocation triggered by a safety incident. Just because the money is moved to a new place doesn't mean the owner wants to sell it. The difference will become apparent in the coming weeks. If this batch of coins enters the exchange and then slowly flows back into cold wallets, it means it was just a false alarm; If they remain on the exchange without moving or even continue to decline, that's another matter.
From a swing trading perspective, changes in BTC balances on exchanges are more valuable than the number of active addresses in a single day; the former is a continuous slow variable, while the latter is a one-time pulse. Judging trends based on a single event-driven data spike is easy to misread.
In the long run, the most expensive price of this incident is not the 1,359 BTC that was taken, but the tens of thousands of people who wavered in self-custody. A tear in trust is torn open, and repatching it takes longer than everyone thinks.
I want to ask, did you actually transfer coins on July 31st? Has the portion that was transferred out cooled into your wallet yet?$CYS speculative coin structure review, high potential!
Core conclusion: The potential of the $CYS speculative coin remains intact and has entered the main upward verification phase, but the 0.618 U breakthrough is not yet complete; crowded shorts provide a short squeeze fuel, and high contract dominance amplifies pullback risk. Data timestamp: 2026-08-05 10:48.
❶ Volume-price structure: Currently about 0.5658 U, +97.6% in 24 hours, about 8% below the 0.618 U high. Trading volume in the last 3 hours increased by 38% compared to the previous period, no volume contraction yet.
❷ Leverage structure: Open Interest (OI) about 40.25 million CYS, +60.6% in 24 hours; estimated funding rate +0.053%. Short positions account for about 68% of accounts, large accounts short about 71%, while large accounts hold about 55% long positions, indicating a clear short squeeze structure.
❸ Historical comparison: $CYS has surpassed the typical pre-explosive consolidation phase and is closer to the main upward verification after synchronous ignition. However, the current pullback is insufficient and trading volume is still expanding, so a low-risk consolidation has not yet formed.
❹ Capital structure: Contract trading volume about 292.7 million U, covering spot about 11.81 million U, contract/spot ratio 24.8 times, contracts account for 96.1%. Alpha provides price confirmation, but the market is mainly amplified by contracts.
❺ Valuation constraints: Circulating supply about 160.8 million tokens, circulating market cap about 91 million U, OI accounts for about 25% of circulating supply. 0.618 U and historical high 0.7695 U remain the main supply zones.
❻ Verification path: Holding above 0.52 U and breaking through 0.618 U with spot volume expansion confirms the main upward trend; breaking below 0.4821 U with OI not decreasing and spot volume contracting indicates leverage starting to backfire.
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 $cys $BTC BTC는 스위치고, 알트코인은 선택받은 일부만 움직이는 시장 선별적 자금 이동이 곧 이번 국면의 본질이라면, 기다림 자체가 기회비용이 되는 구간 아닌가. 원문에서 확인되는 핵심 사실은 명확하다. 전체 알트코인이 동시에 오르는 총력전 국면이 아니며, 관찰 대상 코인 대부분은 횡보 중이고 일부 종목만 거래량과 가격 움직임이 살아있다. 실제 자금이 이동 중인 종목으로 JTO, JELLY, BTC, OPG, BTCSLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, CHIP이 언급됐고, 모멘텀이 소멸한 종목으로 BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, RAVE, SPACE, SOPH, IP, AVNT, ZAMA, OFC, PIEVERSE, VIRTUAL, ACU, H, MEGA가 지목됐다. 추가 관망 대상은 MEME, EDEN, HUMA, ZKP, METIS다. 이 구도는 단순한 종목 추천이 아니라 시장 구조에 대한 진단이다. 유동성이 모든 자산을 동시에 끌어올리기엔 부족하고, 그 결과 자금이 특정 조$LINK IS fell -1.00% to $8.1300.
Entry and targeting are crucial.
Entry: $8.0894 — $8.1463
TP1：$8.4146
TP2：$8.8211
TP3：$9.3495
SL：$7.7723
Support is expected to rebound at $8.1000, which is a key level.
Bullish sentiment remains bullish.
Buy on dips
Disclaimer: Trading carries risks.AMD also blew up after the market closed. Revenue reached 11.536 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50%, setting a new historical high.
Data center revenue was 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107%. EPS was $1.66, beating the expected $1.62.
Gross margin was 56%, net profit was 2.76 billion yuan.
Then it fell 7% to 9% in after-hours trading.
Revenue hit record highs, data centers doubled, profits exceeded expectations, and the stock price fell nearly 10%.
Wall Street's expectations have been elevated to unreasonable heights.
The median Q3 guidance was $13 billion, higher than analysts' average expectation of $12.5 billion, but did not meet the expectations of some aggressive investors.
The $13 billion guidance would be an explosive figure in any normal year, but AMD's stock price has more than doubled this year.
The market is no longer pricing "can AMD grow," but "whether AMD can grow at NVIDIA's pace."
The difference between the two was the 7% drop in after-hours trading. #AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn? Looking back at history, every round of Federal Reserve rate hikes has been a filter for the true strong players.
Starting rate hikes in 2015, BTC did not immediately end its trend; instead, it ushered in a major bull market in 2017.
Aggressive rate hikes in 2022 led to rapid liquidity tightening, and BTC entered a bear market.
What truly impacts the market is never just the words "rate hike," but whether liquidity continues to tighten.
The market falls not because of the news, but because of capital expectations;
the market rises not because of the news, but because expectations begin to change.
Therefore, rather than guessing every day whether there will be a rate hike, it is better to observe:
Is capital flowing in or flowing out. Data center revenue doubled to $6.7 billion, accounting for 58% of total revenue, making it AMD's largest growth engine.
EPYC server CPUs and Instinct GPUs are both shipped.
Data center operating profit was 2.1 billion yuan, compared to a loss in the same period last year.
AMD's transformation from a "CPU company" to an "AI chip company" is underway.
But Lisa Su mentioned two things on the conference call that are worth pondering. First, she expects data center sales to double by 2027. Second, server revenue in the second half of fiscal year 2026 will grow by more than 80% year-on-year. An 80% growth rate is astonishing in any industry, but the market wants triple-digit growth, and AMD offers 80%+. This is the expectation gap.
AMD has become Nvidia's most important challenger in the AI chip market. SpaceX later announced that it will only use NVIDIA GPUs. Major clients are still choosing Nvidia, while AMD's pace of pursuit is still not fast enough. The 13 billion Q3 guidance, 80% server growth, and doubling data centers—these are all solid numbers. But the stock price has already risen 100% this year, and the market has priced in most of the good news before the earnings report. The 7% drop in after-hours trading isn't because AMD is doing poorly, but because the market wants to do better. #AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn? #AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn?
AMD's financial report is a microcosm of the AI narrative.
Revenue hit record highs, data centers doubled, profits exceeded expectations—every line of numbers tells the same story—AI demand is real, and AMD is making money from this wave.
However, the stock price fell 7% after hours.
The good news was interpreted as "not good enough." The AI narrative market has shifted from "whether there is demand" to "whether demand is growing fast enough."
AMD's Q3 guidance is $13 billion, which is $500 million above analysts' average expectations.
But aggressive investors want more, as AMD's stock price has already doubled.
The higher the valuation, the stricter the market's requirements for growth rate. This isn't just AMD's problem—it's a test faced by the entire AI hardware sector—when your valuation has already priced in the most optimistic scenario, any earnings report that is "just a little better than expected" will be penalized.
The competitive landscape of AI chips is also changing. Nvidia still holds the dominant position, while AMD is catching up. Major clients favor Nvidia. AMD's data center business is moving from zero to one, from one to ten, but the market is already at the stage of pricing from ten to a hundred. AMD's earnings report is fine, but market expectations are questionable. The biggest lesson from this financial report is: in AI narratives, doing it right isn't enough; you have to do it right beyond everyone's expectations.Morgan Stanley's valuation of SpaceX before the earnings report:
Rocket business valued at 8, Starlink at 128, AI business at 152. Target price $300. Current stock price is 117, the market's valuation of SpaceX doesn't even cover Starlink alone. The market's subtext is: Starlink is worth over a hundred, rockets are basically given away, and the AI business is either worthless or a negative asset.
Space business Q2 revenue was 962 million, operating loss 542 million. AI business revenue 2.561 billion, operating loss 1.257 billion. Among the three main businesses, only the connectivity business (Starlink) is profitable. AI is burning cash, rockets are burning cash. Most of the money Starlink earns is used to support AI and Starship.
Elon Musk's net worth has evaporated by 646.4 billion in one and a half months. SpaceX's market value dropped from 2.6 trillion to 1.5 trillion. But what really determines the stock price trend is not Musk's net worth, but whether early employees and investors will sell after the lock-up expires on August 6. Their cost basis might be a few dollars or tens of dollars, not hundreds. What they are waiting for is not the earnings report, but the liquidity window. The window opens tomorrow. #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 There are reports that the Trump administration plans to ban China's new optical modules, which is explosive positive news for the optical communications sector! 🧐
Simply put, optical modules are the data center's "super transmission belt" that converts electrical signals into light signals and transmits data at high speed between AI chips. Nowadays, every rack in AI data centers is packed with this stuff. Currently, the industry is rapidly upgrading from 800G to 1.6T, and this is simply not enough. Currently, in terms of market share, Chinese companies occupy half of the optical communication sector.
Think about it: if the US really wiped out China's supply chain to zero, would the demand from AI giants disappear? Not at all. Data centers still need to be built, AI training continues, and this massive order can only be poured into the hands of the remaining American companies. And the "American players" who can handle this huge fortune are very concentrated, with only these three core players:
$COHR (Coherent) & $LITE (Lumentum): These two are absolute "duopolies" in the optical and laser fields. How strong is it? Even Nvidia, in order to secure its supply chain, has invested billions of dollars in advance to sign long-term underwriting contracts with them. They control the upstream core laser chips and components; as long as the data center is still under construction, almost every optical path involves them.
$AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics): This is the purest American-made target. Not long ago, people were still questioning whether expanding by 400,000 square feet of capacity in the U.S. was too much of a gamble. At first, it seemed a bit aggressive, but now, combined with this ban, it's practically a divine prediction! With capacity released, this is definitely the biggest beneficiary of U.S. domestic manufacturing returning to shore in the future.
What's even more striking is that both policy and supply sides are fueling the fire.
Just last week, the US FCC banned China's humanoid robots and power inverters under the same national security ban, with the same logic: protecting domestic AI development and forcing manufacturing to return. Optical communications, as the throat of AI, are clearly the next domino to be toppled.
Combined with material shortages and physical production restrictions: Lumentum's CEO previously stated that the shortage of indium phosphide materials used to make laser cores could be even more absurd than memory chips. In other words, on one hand, there is a physical shortage of core raw materials; on the other, policies require the destruction of a large portion of existing global production capacity, with obvious consequences.
The current logic is extremely simple and blunt: surge in demand + policy blockade of Chinese production capacity + severe raw material shortages. These three forces have united and directly pushed all their shares into these three companies. Currently, all three have gained over 10% in pre-market trading, which is worth watching! 🧐 Fundamental Research Report $SUI / Sui (Public Chain/L1) $0.69 (24h -0.73%)
To summarize: Sui ($SUI) has an overall score of 67/100, with fundamentals meeting but some flaws. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Project Overview: Sui (token $SUI), public chain/L1 track. Focusing on the Move-based parallel settlement public chain. Benchmarked against APT and SEI. Traditional collaboration between enterprises relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, which causes gas surges, TPS constraints, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents during high concurrency. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. The latest version, testnet-v1.77.1, has been valid for 9,999 submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $110.59M, TVL $413.24M. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (distributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $779.6K, and token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate without a burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 9,999 valid submissions in 90 days, 100 active contributors, latest version testnet-v1.77.1. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 10,000,000,000.0, circulating 4,074,529,886.441529 (40.7%), FDV $6.90B, next unlock undisclosed (share of circulating undisclosed), annualized share of burn and buyback not explicitly repurchased or burned. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Let's look together with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Sui $2.81B, APT undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. For FDV, Sui $6.90B, APT undisclosed, SEI undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Sui $779.6K, APT not disclosed, SEI undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Sui has not disclosed, APT has not disclosed, SEI has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market capitalization $2.81B, FDV $6.90B, P/S 3605.5x, FDV divided by revenue 8848.9x. Pessimistic outlook: $2.81B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic: revenue doubles, burns are implemented, enterprise clients are coming in, FDV corresponds to P/S, aligns with the top companies. In the end: solid fundamentals (score 67/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risks to watch for: short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue wiping out, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Next, focus on these numbers: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, and GitHub version release. The above is the logic and judgment of the publicly available information and does not constitute buying or selling advice. Core financial indicators deviate by more than 30%, and the conclusion needs to be reassessed.
That's all for the fundamentals; leave the rest to the market.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitWhile the US-Iran negotiations are progressing, OPEC+ is doing something else — agreeing to increase production for the sixth consecutive month in September.
The sharp drop in oil prices is the result of two forces combined: expectations of supply disruptions are weakening, and actual supply is increasing, both sides loosening simultaneously.
But the supply recovery won't be that fast.
Iran insists on controlling the Strait passage rights; shipping analysts believe the oil flow recovery will be slower than official statements, and actual throughput needs inbound vessels to replenish before confirmation. The demand side is also not optimistic, with ample Chinese inventories continuing to suppress import demand. The increase from the Middle East's summer peak in power generation oil use is estimated to be only about 500,000 barrels per day.
If the Hormuz agreement is really reached, oil prices may have further downside. The deep backwardation of Brent near-month versus far-month is clearly converging as the premium clears. After the agreement is finalized, it may shift to a contango structure. But the agreement is not signed yet, and Iran is still insisting on dominance. If the deal falls through in the next couple of days, there is room for a rebound from the low after the sharp drop.
The fact that oil prices fell below 80 does not necessarily indicate a trend; it may just be the market pricing in something that has not yet happened in advance.
#美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元 📊 Daily Tokenized Equity Overview
Top Performers:
• $XONDS : 8.88 (+1.49%) 🔥
• $GRVT 0.26339 (+0.66%)
• $XTER : 408.16 (+0.45%)
• $xGEV: 1,025.24 (+0.32%)
• $xXLE: 58.51 (+0.10%)
Slight Pullback:
• $xADBE: 257.3 (-0.10%)
• $xVRT: 273.29 (-0.30%)
$xONDS and $GRVT lead today's board with solid green pushes while tokenized tech assets hold key range support levels!
NFA – Educational purposes only.
#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops Oil prices falling below 80 is not a direct positive for the crypto market, but an indirect one.
The logic chain is as follows: oil price drops → inflation expectations cool down → US Treasury yields decline → rate hike expectations ease → valuation pressure on risk assets lessens.
The big surge in the US stock market on August 4 was mainly driven by this chain. The probability of a rate hike in September fell from 67% to 56%. Both bulls and bears have somewhat relaxed their stance on the rate hike probability.
However, this chain has two fragile links. First, Iran denies direct negotiations, and without an agreement, oil prices could rebound at any time. Second, even if an agreement is signed, oil prices returning from 80 to 70 or fluctuating within the 80-90 range will determine how much rate hike expectations can ease.
Goldman Sachs leans toward the latter — even if an agreement is signed, it will only return to range-bound fluctuations, not a trend reversal. Oil prices have dropped, and rate hike expectations have eased a bit, but not enough to make Bitcoin take off directly. Bitcoin bounced from 63,000 to 64,000, about a 1% increase, and then stalled. A real reversal requires oil prices to stay below 80 for a sustained period or CPI to be below expectations for two consecutive reports. One or two oil price fluctuations cannot change the trend. #美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元 #AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn?
AMD's earnings report beats expectations ≠ rise | Growth has been overdrawn, post-hours -9% is the market repaying "expectation debt"
8/4 AMD handover: Revenue $11.54 billion (YoY +50%), Non-GAAP net profit $2.76 billion (+253%), EPS 1.66 (expected 1.62%), data center $6.7 billion (+107%)—all four exceeded expectations, and Su Ma brought out Helios, EPYC, and Instinct all on the board.
And what happened? In regular trading, it closed up 7% at 518.58, but after hours, it plunged back to around 472, dropping -8.7%~-9%.
My view is straightforward: this is not a performance bombshell, but a classic pricing of "expectation overdraft."
Three points that most people overlook:
1. The stock price has been ahead of the earnings for a year: AMD has risen over 110% this year, with a PE (TTM) of about 170 times as of the close on August 4, and a 52-week high of 584.73. The market has long priced it as the "AI No. 2 player," so the earnings report only needs to be "impressive." This year's revenue only exceeded expectations by about 260 million yuan, with EPS above expectations of $0.04—a "good but not explosive" approach.
2. Q3 guidance of 13 billion vs. buyer's whisper of 14 billion: The median official guidance of +41% year-on-year is actually not low, but some aggressive funds are betting on 14 billion, not breaking below the most optimistic expectations = a signal of momentum peaking.
3. Capex 808 million (nearly 3 times year-on-year) + AI burning money accelerates: Helios rack-level mass production requires higher upfront investment, while profit margin ceilings are being suppressed by itself. Wall Street's tolerance for "AI burning money for market share" is declining.
To put it plainly: the company hasn't weakened; it's the stock price that has discounted its 2027 AI shares ahead of schedule to August 2026. Positive news realization = profit-taking withdrawal, not fundamental reversal.
• BTC/ETH and Nasdaq tech lines are strengthening in synergy. AMD's "AI sentiment anchor" has dropped 9% after hours, which will spill over to AI× DePIN (RNDR/akash/TAO classes) and XAMD tokenized markets. Don't just watch BTC's mood
• But note: AMD's data center doubling ≠ AI demand is disproven; valuations need to be repriced. If NVDA's month-end earnings report is also "good but not impressive," the entire AI hardware chain will all enter the consolidation box, with risk appetite pulling back to the top beta crypto AI coins first
• Trading: XAMD/stock derivatives will not chase earnings reports with gaps; wait for support in the 472-485 range (after-hours low + 7/28 previous lows); BTC itself relies more on macro liquidity than on AMD per note; don't equate AMD's pullback with BTC turning bearish
Conclusion: AMD is a good company, but the current price is for the "Nvidia Challenger" dream discount, which has been reset to zero. Next, let's see if Helios's Q4 volume ramp can push the PE ratio from 170 back to just over 100. Short-term unlocking + valuation double kill not yet complete, but the long-term AI computing power curve remains unbroken.After the market closed on August 5th, SanDisk is due to submit its Q4 financial report.
#闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages have sparked heated discussion
Wall Street expects revenue of $8.39 billion and EPS of $33.
The company's own guidance is 7.75 to 8.25 billion.
The key is not whether it can exceed the company's guidance, but whether it can exceed the consensus expectations already raised by the market.
The truly substantial figures include revenue above $8.5 billion, EPS above $35, gross margin stabilizing around 80%, and an upward revision of the fiscal year 2027 guidance. If it only exceeds the company's guidance and fails to meet market expectations, it will still be treated as "below expectations" by the funds. If revenue falls below 8.1 billion yuan, or if gross margin or forward guidance loosens, the stock price could fall another 15% to 25%.
This round of earnings reports is essentially a stress test for the AI storage narrative. The market's main concern is not the profits already realized, but how long the high prosperity of AI storage can last. Last quarter, SanDisk's data center revenue grew 233% quarter-on-quarter, and this quarter proves that demand for enterprise SSDs is accelerating. The expected earnings fluctuation in options market pricing is ±21%, with both bulls and bears betting on it.Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta continue to expand their AI data centers, causing memory shortages and prices to keep rising.
Industry insiders expect this supply-demand imbalance to continue into 2027.
Goldman Sachs clearly predicted before its earnings report that SanDisk's Q4 would be a "very strong quarter." NAND flash supply and demand remain tight, with demand on mobile, PC, and data center sides recovering simultaneously. But the stock price has fallen from a high of 2354 at the end of June, down about 25% over the past month. When prices rise, AI storage is a supercycle; when prices fall, the market starts to worry about tech giants overheating their AI spending.
Same fundamentals, two different pricing. The purpose of financial reports is not to prove that "AI storage demand exists"—this is already a consensus; what the report should prove is "how much longer AI storage demand can last." The market needs to see that the gross margin of around 80% and the AI storage shortage can still be sustained. Guidance is much more important than the current figures.
#闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages have sparked heated discussion After SanDisk's financial report, how will the storage sector move?
#闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages have sparked heated discussion
It depends on three numbers.
The first is gross margin. Last quarter it was 78.4%, about 80% of market expectations. If it holds 80%, it means pricing power still lies with the supplier. If it falls below 78%, the market will start asking, "Is oversupply coming?" The second is the guidance for fiscal year 2027. Wall Street no longer cares much about the current figure; what matters is whether it can continue to rise over the next 12 months. The third is the month-on-month growth rate of data center revenue. Last quarter, it rose 233%. Given this base, doubling again is unrealistic, but if growth drops below 50%, the market will reprice the valuation of the entire storage sector.
The current correction in storage stocks has been significant—SanDisk has fallen 25% from its peak, Micron 21%, and SK Hynix over 30%. If the earnings report exceeds expectations and guidance is raised, the storage sector may see a retaliatory rebound. If the financial report only "meets expectations" without surprises, it may "crash first, then crash." If revenue falls below 8.1 billion yuan or gross margin loosens, it could fall another 15% to 25%.8月4号，美股炸了。
道指涨了907点，站上54000点，历史上头一回。
标普500涨了1.79%，收在7736点，也是第一次站上7700。纳指涨了2.59%，费城半导体指数涨了6.55%。
三大指数同步创历史新高，这种行情今年没见过几次。
为什么涨？五大催化剂叠在一起了。贝森特说最快周二或周三就能跟伊朗达成协议、重开霍尔木兹海峡，油价应声跌破80美元。
美债收益率跟着下来了，9月加息概率从67%回落到了56%。Palantir财报爆了，盘后直接涨了13%。卡特彼勒单季营收首破200亿。再加上油价下跌压通胀预期，五件事在同一天共振。
Bespoke的Paul Hickey说得对，这波涨势不是单一事件推动的，是多条正面催化接力发酵。AI硬件、工业、金融、医疗保健，全都在出双位数增长。美股已经不是靠科技股单扛了，整个大盘在共振。但Piper Sandler提醒了一句——风险偏好确实在升温，但市场广度还是偏弱，这波复苏“好，但还没到极佳”。
#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 SpaceX's first quarterly report after going public immediately ignited the market.
The core data is indeed impressive: second-quarter revenue soared to $7.814 billion, a 92% year-on-year increase. Operating losses also narrowed significantly, dropping from $970 million to $143 million. Both revenue and loss improvements exceeded market expectations, making this report card truly solid.
More importantly, the financial report revealed a piece of news—a partnership with NVIDIA to develop the Starmind AI1 satellite computing payload. This means SpaceX is no longer just building rockets and satellites, but is pushing space infrastructure toward AI. This has pulled its story from an aerospace company directly into the AI infrastructure track.
But right behind came the sword hanging overhead.
On August 6th, which is tomorrow, the first batch of SpaceX restricted shares will officially enter the unlocking window. Eligible existing shareholders can sell up to 20% of the restricted shares.
Note this description—the potential supply exceeds the current public circulation volume. This means the tokens released from unlocking may be more than what is currently available on the market. This is the real stress test point for this upcoming rally.
Ultimately, the financial reports provide enough support for long-term logic: 92% revenue growth, a sharp narrowing of losses, and deep integration with NVIDIA in AI satellites—all of which determine its ceiling. But whether the selling pressure after the lockdown opens tomorrow is the key variable for short-term pricing.
The market is now watching two main lines: one is whether SpaceX can continue to make money, and the other is whether such a massive wave of unlocking and buying is strong enough to take over.
Which of these two issues will prevail will be revealed in the coming week.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable $SPCX $SNDK $SKHYNIX 标普站上7700这件事，最值得看的是驱动结构。
4月到6月，标普一直在7620附近磨，上不去下不来。
突破需要新的催化剂。
贝森特那番话是点火索——美伊谈判预期把油价砸了下来，通胀预期降温，长端美债收益率跟着回落。
三大压制因素同时松绑，指数自然往上冲。
但Bespoke的Hickey还说了另一句话——纳斯达克出现了连续四日上涨超过1%的走势，历史经验显示这种连续性买盘通常代表真正资金回流，而非短线反弹。
这不是散户在追，是机构在重新配置。
Freedom Capital的Jay Woods说得更直接：战争利空正在被市场消化，现在真正主导行情的是企业盈利。
Palantir营收增长93%，卡特彼勒破200亿，AMD数据中心翻倍——这些是实打实的数字。
油价跌、利率降、业绩好，三件事同时发生，标普站上7700是结果，不是终点。
#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 US stocks hit a new high, and Bitcoin is still grinding around 63,000.
#标普500首次站上7700点, setting a new all-time high
The S&P 500 rose 1.79%, semiconductors rose 6.55%, and storage stocks surged across the board—SanDisk rose 10%, and Micron rose 7%.
Dabing has only followed by less than 1%. $BTC
The Nasdaq is already close to its previous high, and the market is still half of its all-time high.
The logic behind decoupling is clear. US stocks are pricing in "falling oil prices→ cooling inflation→ and falling interest rates," while the market is still being held back by a "56% probability of a rate hike in September."
For the same issue, US stocks interpret it as positive, while Bitcoin remains on the sidelines.
Piper Sandler said this recovery is "good, but not yet excellent."
The US-Iran agreement has not been formally signed, and Iran is still denying direct negotiations.
As long as the agreement isn't implemented, the geopolitical premium hasn't been cleared for a day.
If negotiations break down, oil prices rebound, and rate hike expectations jump back up, the foundation for this wave of US stock market highs will be loosened.
Bitcoin is now 63,000, half the price of US stocks, but it also carries twice the risk.Many people think MSTR's stock exchange for dollar reserves is "neglecting its duties," but in fact, this is precisely a top-tier open strategy aimed at a trillion-yuan market cap.
The core logic is simple: buying coins with STRC preferred shares is much more cost-effective than issuing common shares.
Issuing common shares to buy coins is a 1:1 exchange, so the amount of Bitcoin per share remains unchanged, effectively wasting all their efforts. But issuing STRC to buy coins is equivalent to getting $100 worth of Bitcoin at zero cost today, with only 12% interest paid annually.
Crunch: Bitcoin has risen 20% annualized over the long term, more than sixfold in 10 years, turning $100 into $619; And a 12% interest rate pays only $120 over 10 years. Inside, shareholders earned nearly $500 for free, without diluting their equity.
Issuing stocks now to exchange for dollar reserves is meant to solidify the balance sheet, allowing STRC to be issued at low cost over a sustained basis. When Bitcoin rises, this interest rate will be negligible compared to the gains.
To put it bluntly, it's not that they don't believe in Bitcoin, but rather that they've adopted a smarter, more sustainable approach to squeeze out the long-term compound interest of Bitcoin $BTC. #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved
MSTR sells another 1,638 Bitcoins, halving the scale: from "hoarding maniac" to "active selling"
The Bitcoin whale Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, MSTR), once known for its "buy only, not sell" strategy, has once again broken its promise. From July 27 to August 2, the company sold 1,638 Bitcoins, cashing out about $104.7 million, at an average price of $63,957. This sales volume is nearly "halved" compared to the 3,588 shares sold during the first share reduction at the end of June.
1. Why sell at a loss?
The average sale price was $63,957, far below the company's overall holding cost of $75,419, resulting in a paper loss of about $11,462 per coin.
The proceeds from the sale were precisely split in half:
· $52.4 million: Dividends paid on preferred stock
· $52.3 million: Repurchased discounted STRC preferred shares
The core goal is to save STRC. STRC is a perpetual preferred stock issued by Strategy, with a face value of $100, but it has long traded at a discount in the $89-92 range. CEO Phong Le clearly stated that the company's core goal is to keep STRC stable at $99 to $100 over the long term. To this end, Strategy is willing to sell coins and buy back shares at a loss to "eliminate high-interest debt."
2. A Bigger Blueprint: A $5 Billion Cash-Out Plan
This sale is just part of a larger strategic transformation.
On June 29, Strategy officially launched the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," completely breaking the unwritten rule of "never sell." In early July, the company initially authorized the sale of $1.25 billion in Bitcoin; a few weeks later, this target was quadrupled to $5 billion.
A triple use of $5 billion:
· Enhanced dollar reserves: up to $1.25 billion
· Dividends paid on preferred stock: approximately $1.76 billion
· Driving stock buybacks: an additional $2 billion
As of August 2, the company's dollar reserves had reached $4 billion. So far, only about $320 million worth of Bitcoin has been sold, achieving just 6.5% of the $5 billion target—even greater selling may be yet to come.
3. Not just selling coins: Sell stocks simultaneously
During the same period, Strategy also sold 3,011,361 shares of MSTR common stock through an ATM (Market-to-Market) offering, raising a net raise of approximately $290.6 million. $250 million injected into US dollar reserves, $28.9 million repurchased the STRC, and $11.7 million to supplement cash balances.
Longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff criticized that Saylor is diluting MSTR shares while selling coins, "becoming a burden on MSTR and BTC." However, CEO Phong Le responded that the company's core goal is to increase the number of Bitcoins represented per share, and since 2020, MSTR has outperformed Bitcoin in every four-year holding cycle.
4. Market Reaction: MSTR actually rose
Interestingly, after the announcement, MSTR's stock price rebounded 1.7% that day, closing at $94.86. Analysts consider this a "relief rebound"—proactive selling of coins has addressed market concerns about the company's liquidity.
Some analysts (including Barclays and Cantor Fitzgerald) expect MSTR to break above $180 and aim for above $240. However, some viewpoints point out that MSTR is still consolidating below the lower boundary of the $100 to $180 range for 2024.
5. Summary
The strategic shift essentially represents a paradigm shift from "only buying, not selling" to "active capital management." The company still holds 842,138 Bitcoins (4% of the total Bitcoin supply), with a total holdings valued at approximately $63.5 billion.
But the narrative of "never selling" has come to an end. As whales begin selling at a loss to pay dividends, the market's long-standing narrative of belief in Bitcoin is undergoing a subtle repricing. Currently, its Bitcoin holdings have a book loss close to $11 billion. Whether further selling pressure will continue to depend on whether Bitcoin's price can rebound above $75,000—and whether STRC can return to face value.
$MSTR On August 5, several leading ETF issuers jointly submitted S-1 amendments to Solana's spot ETFs to the SEC.
Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, Fidelity, Canary Capital, CoinShares, Grayscale, and VanEck are all on the list.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated directly that all Solana spot ETFs have submitted for a third revision, which is almost equivalent to locking in the approval signal.
Nate Geraci, President of NovaDius Wealth, also confirmed that the SEC is in talks with issuers regarding the terms.
The SEC has simplified the approval frameworks for Solana, XRP, and Cardano.
Unlike the lengthy tug-of-war in BTC and ETH approvals, the altcoin ETF channel is being systematically compressed in time.
CoinShares also filed an S-1 for its Solana staking ETF, aiming to list on Nasdaq.
Rex-Osprey's Solana+Staking ETF attracted $12 million on its first day, with AUM reaching $137 million.
The market demand for Solana ETFs is more real than many people expected.
The entire Solana fund system currently has about $2.4 billion in AUM, which is only 8.7% of the Ethereum ETF.
Solana's market cap is about 20% of Ethereum's, and there is still room for ETF penetration to double that gap.
If approved, once the gates for traditional financial capital open, SOL may be repriced. $SOL On August 5th, the SEC did something even more thought-provoking than the ETF approval itself.
The Jito liquid staking protocol for Ethereum Lido and Solana has been officially exempted from securities laws.
Jito is the largest staking and MEV infrastructure service provider in the Solana ecosystem, controlling a significant portion of the Solana staking market.
This SEC exemption sets a regulatory precedent for non-custodial staking. Previously, SOL was repeatedly labeled an unregistered security by the SEC in its complaint. As long as this qualification is not lifted, SOL's compliance ceiling will remain low. Jito's exemption does not directly launder SOL, but it takes the path of "liquid staking protocols without triggering securities laws." If Jito can pass, other DeFi protocols on Solana could theoretically follow the same path.
SOL is currently priced at $85.54, down 0.53% in the past 24 hours, and up 2.43% over the past 7 days. Market value is $49.2 billion, with a circulating supply of 575.6 million tokens. Spot trading volume in 24 hours was 579 million, contract trading was 10.2 billion, and leveraged trading volume was 17 times that of spot trading. This leverage ratio requires ongoing attention in highly volatile market environments.
$SOL On August 13, Solana's TVL broke its historical record of $31 billion.
Surpassing the 30.8 billion yuan high set on January 20, SOL was $293 at the time.
Currently, SOL is only $185, which is 37% below its all-time high.
With the same TVL, the token price dropped by 37%, indicating more locked assets on the chain, not supported by SOL price increases.
USDC issuer Circle is the largest TVL driver on Solana, with $8.7 billion, accounting for 28% of the on-chain ecosystem's valuation.
Lending protocol Kamino, DEX aggregator Jupiter, and liquid staking protocol Jito contributed 10.7 billion.
However, Solana's trading volume fell from a January peak of 103 billion per week to 16.9 billion, a decrease of 84%.
After the meme coin tide retreated, on-chain fees dropped from 53 million to 72.3 million.
TVL is rising, trading volume is falling, and fees are falling. On-chain funds are shifting from speculative trading to yield-bearing protocols and stablecoin custody. $SOL Global + SNDK Minimalist Situation of the Day
I. Macro Market Environment
1. Geopolitics: Expectations of easing US-Iran negotiations materialize, international crude oil plunges 5.7% in a single day, inflation pressure significantly cools down, US Treasury yields across all maturities decline simultaneously; the market lowers the probability of a Fed rate hike in September, overall risk appetite fully recovers.
2. US Stock Market: Dow Jones and S&P 500 both hit new all-time closing highs, Nasdaq surges 2.59%; the market is highly structured, with capital concentrated flowing into AI hardware, storage, and optical communication sectors, while broad consumer and some internet stocks weaken.
3. Pre-market Futures: Before today's open, the three major stock index futures show slight divergence, bullish sentiment marginally contracts, entering a cautious wait-and-see phase before earnings releases.
II. Sector Performance (Semiconductors/Storage)
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soars 6.55%, rising for four consecutive days; storage chips rally across the board: SanDisk and Intel surge over 10%, Micron and Hynix also rise sharply.
Underlying drivers: Spot and contract prices for NAND and DRAM continue to rise week-over-week; global AI data center expansion brings long-term storage demand, industry cycle reversal logic is being repriced by capital.
III. SNDK SanDisk Stock Situation
1. Price Performance: Closed at $1427.62 yesterday, intraday high $1446.62, volume-driven strong rebound, representing a robust recovery after a deep correction, but has not yet returned above the previous downtrend.
2. Core Variable: Q4 earnings report to be released after US market close today; options market prices intraday volatility at ±13.1%, the largest trigger point for the day's movement.
3. Technical Structure: Short-term strong bullish trend but dense resistance above; before earnings release, the market mainly plays on expectations, with amplified long-short divergence.
IV. Short-term Market Summary
Easing external environment + industry fundamentals support this round of storage sector rebound; all volatility ultimately depends on tonight's SNDK earnings data to determine the strength and continuation, with range-bound oscillation expected before the report.On August 4, Phantom Wallet announced the acquisition of Solsniper, an AI meme coin trading platform on Solana.
Earlier this year, Phantom completed a $150 million Series C round at a $3 billion valuation, led by Sequoia and Paradigm.
Phantom started as a Solana ecosystem wallet, then acquired Solsniper, and at the beginning of the year acquired NFT data platform SimpleHash. Its direction is clear: from a wallet to a super gateway to the Solana ecosystem.
Solsniper will continue to operate independently, indicating that Phantom wants technical capabilities and user data, not simply user aggregation.
SOL is now at $85.54, with contract open interest of $5.1 billion.
Both bulls and bears are waiting for the final result of the ETF.
CoinShares, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Grayscale are all in the queue, while dialogue between the SEC and issuers is progressing. Wait until the ETF is approved before deciding how to proceed. $SOL SanDisk (SNDK) surged yesterday + market outlook
1. The core catalyst for yesterday's (August 4 US session) surge was the main catalyst
Flash Summit Major News (the Most Direct Trigger)
Flash Memory Summit 2026: SanDisk and SK Hynix release the HBF high-bandwidth flash memory universal standard.
Positioned to solve the "memory wall" of AI inference, targeting cloud/edge AI, breaking through a new solution integrating GPU + high-speed NAND. Market Analysis: SanDisk has successfully entered the new AI storage track, opening up long-term growth space and no longer just a traditional NAND manufacturer.
Industry fundamentals and news resonated
Multiple media outlets have confirmed: Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix have all secured DRAM/HBM production capacities for 2027 by cloud providers, and NAND spot and contract prices will continue to rise in the third quarter; The market has reinforced expectations that "tight storage supply and demand will continue at least until the end of 2027."
Technical: Oversold rebound funds are being replenished
SanDisk continued to pull back from its high in late July, with short-term chip trading fully swapped; The Philadelphia semiconductor index strengthened collectively, with funds flowing back into AI computing power and storage sectors, and trending funds bottom-fishing.
Event Expectations: Upcoming financial report window contest
The market is prematurely betting on earnings releases, with capital expectations that enterprise SSD orders, gross margins, and long-term supply agreement (LTA) data will continue to improve.
2. Three scenario simulations for the next phase of the market
[Optimistic scenario (bullish logic)]
✅ Trigger conditions: Financial reports for revenue, gross margin, and next quarter guidance significantly exceeding expectations; Management confirms the continuation of NAND price increases and the timeline for HBF commercialization.
Trend: Holding above the $1450 resistance level, challenging the $1600–$1750 range upward.
Driving logic: The AI storage narrative continues to strengthen, and capital is repricing SanDisk from a cyclical stock to an AI growth target.
[Neutral scenario (highest probability)]
Trigger conditions: Financial data meets market expectations, with no unexpected surprises or negative news either.
Trend: Wide oscillation at high levels
Reference range: $1300 – $1500.
Characteristics: After a big rise, the market fluctuates to digest profit-taking positions, with repeated tug-of-war. The storage sector is highly diverged between bulls and bears (institutional target price range is $1000~$3250), and without new catalysts, it is difficult to break out of a one-sided continuous rally.
[Pessimistic Scenario (Requires Special Attention)]
❌ Trigger risk points (any one of them can easily trigger a pullback):
Earnings guidance fell short of expectations, and prices for newly signed orders weakened month-on-month;
Major manufacturers signal capacity expansion, with the market worried about increased supply by the end of 2027;
The US tech sector generally pulled back, while high-volatility storage stocks fell elastically;
Cloud vendors' capital expenditure expectations have been lowered.
Trend: Effectively breaking below the 1300 support, testing the 1150–1200 range.
3. Key indicators that must be continuously monitored going forward
Three core highlights of the financial report
(1) Data center business revenue growth rate; (2) NAND average selling price ASP guidance; (3) Scale of long-term supply orders.
Industry tracking: TrendForce's monthly NAND contract quotes
External macro: Federal Reserve policy expectations, liquidity environment for tech growth stocks
Competitor developments: Samsung and Kioxia capital expenditures and expansion plans
4. Brief summary
Yesterday's rise was due to multiple resonances: technical oversold conditions + HBF technical positive + storage market expectations.
In the short term, it is difficult for a simple one-sided sustained surge to rise; the biggest variable lies in the upcoming earnings report.
Key watershed: resistance at 1450, support at 1300. Only by holding firm pressure can you open up upward space; If the support is broken, the rebound will end temporarily and return to adjustment.
#闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages spark heated discussion. #韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成, volatility narrowed by $SNDK #标普500首次站上7700点, reaching a record high What truly cooled this coin down wasn't the market, but the on-chain issue.
On August 2, on-chain analyst Aunt Ai detected that the "LAB suspected insider address" had moved again after three weeks, depositing 5.8 million LAB tokens to a trading platform worth $834,000, at an average price of $0.1439.
Within an hour and a half after recharging, the price plunged from 0.1439 to 0.1273, a drop of 11.5%.
This is not the first time.
On July 12, the same address transferred $9.15 million worth of LAB to Aster, causing the token price to plummet 42.5% that day.
Every time it moves, the price crashes. This address currently holds 74.7 million LAB, valued at about $10.11 million.
At the current price, these 74.7 million coins could still generate over 10 million in sell-offs.
And the 24-hour spot trading volume was only 2.19 million—enough to be sold for several days. $LAB 链上追踪到的东西更完整——2026年4月，跟LAB团队相关的实体从团队收到了超过1.96亿枚LAB，随后分批转入交易平台充值地址，5月中旬从平台提出来分散到10个地址，休眠了两个月，7月开始往市场砸。
截至目前这个实体仍持有约8150万枚LAB。
还没完。7月14号，1623万枚LAB解锁，占最大供应量的1.6%，当时值406万美元。投资者总量1.92亿枚，目前只解锁了9460万枚，占49.27%。8月14号、9月14号、10月14号、11月14号、12月14号，每个月还有1623万枚要解锁。70.8%的代币标注“未追踪”，可能随时解锁。
团队保持沉默，社区在追查钱包动向，但没人能确认开发者是不是已经走了。一个连团队在不在都不知道的项目，你问我0.157是不是底？我哪知道。但我知道一件事——0.18的时候也有人问过同样的问题。$LAB Wakaka, SpaceX's earnings report production is super impressive, like a StarCraft movie
SpaceX Q2 earnings report submitted, business stronger than expected, but I still maintain a cautious view.
I finished reading SpaceX's first earnings report after going public first thing today, and the operating data is indeed impressive:
Q2 revenue about $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations;
Operating loss significantly narrowed, from nearly $1 billion in the same period last year to about $140 million;
Starlink revenue continues rapid growth, still an important pillar of cash flow;
AI business revenue greatly increased, starting to gradually realize commercial value from the investment phase.
But the other side is also worth attention.
Capital expenditures remained high this quarter, with AI infrastructure investment accounting for the vast majority. Management also stated that large investments will continue in the coming quarters. This means the company is growing fast, but cash burn is also huge. The market will next focus more on whether the investments can continuously convert into profits.
What really deserves observation is the stock price performance.
Before the earnings release, $SPCX once surged to about $130, forcing many shorts to cover; but after the report landed, the stock price quickly fell back, dropping below $120 again, with most of the gains from the previous two days quickly given back.
This indicates the market is not denying SpaceX's fundamentals but is reassessing whether the current valuation has already priced in future growth.
The biggest variable coming up is the first batch of restricted shares unlocking on August 6.
Unlocking does not mean all shares will be sold immediately, but the circulating supply will obviously increase, and the market will need more new funds to absorb the supply. For high-valuation growth stocks, supply and demand often influence short-term stock prices more than an excellent earnings report.
SpaceX remains one of the world's most competitive aerospace and technology companies, with Starlink, Starship, and AI all having long-term potential.
However, a great company does not necessarily mean any price is worth buying.
At this stage, I am more focused on the supply pressure brought by the unlocking and whether the market funds can smoothly digest it, rather than the earnings report itself. Therefore, before the unlocking risk is fully released, I still maintain a relatively cautious attitude.
The business can continue to be bullish on, but short-term valuation still needs observation. On August 4, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $48.72 million.
BlackRock's staked version of ETHB saw a single-day net inflow of $5.77 million.
On August 4, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 168 million, with the two sides moving in completely opposite directions.
Funds left the BTC ETF and then moved into the Erbing ETF. This trend started in mid-July and has lasted for nearly a month.
BlackRock's total net inflow into ETHB has reached $550 million. Grayscale Mini Trust saw a net inflow of 13.31 million ETH in a single day. Large sums of money are indeed moving toward the Er Bing ETF, with a clear direction.
But there's one issue worth pondering—ETFs are buying, but prices aren't rising. On August 4th, nearly 50 million yuan was bought in from the ETF, and the price was still fluctuating around 1,850. Some are entering through ETFs, others are selling in the spot market—both sides are opposed. The total ETF market value is now around 10.2 billion, accounting for 4.55% of the total market capitalization of Erbing. The market is still small and not yet capable of dominating prices.
What's even more troublesome is retail investors selling off. Data from FXStreet shows that retail investors sold about 360,000 ETH over the past week. Whales are buying, ETFs are entering, retail investors are selling—the three forces are canceling each other out around 1,850. Whoever can't hold out first will have their price go in their favor.
$ETH The total amount of Ethereum staked has reached a historic high of 41.4 million ETH, accounting for 34% of the total supply.
In just the past week, more than 1.4 million ETH have been newly staked.
The validator entry queue was still in line, and there were far more people wanting to come in than wanting to leave.
What's even more noteworthy is the whale address 0x2e80, which has withdrawn a total of 112,000 ETH from Gemini over the past three weeks, worth $208 million, all of which were staked. On August 4, another 19,000 coins were issued, valued at $35.44 million. This address is continuously buying and staking, with a very stable pace, not a short-term trade.
Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes bought another $5 million worth of ETH yesterday. He just bought near 1,700 in July, and now it's still rising at 1,850, with a clear rhythm—buy when it drops, hold it when you buy.
But L1 network activity is cooling down. While whales are accumulating frantically, activity at the on-chain base layer is declining. Big players are buying, while regular users are using less. If this divergence continues, either the whales have misjudged or the market has priced it wrong.
$ETH AMD's numbers this quarter look pretty good: revenue of $11.5 billion, up 50%, with data centers doubling to $6.7 billion. The stock price surged briefly during trading but plunged nearly 10% after hours.
The market is honest: you exceeded expectations, but I have already bought out the "better" in advance.
AMD today is no longer the company that once relies on Ryzen and gaming to turn its fortune around. Data centers account for nearly 60% of revenue, while gaming business dropped by more than 30% year-on-year, which is basically negligible. Right now, it's competing with NVIDIA for AI computing power. Helios is starting to ramp up volume, and the visibility of major client orders is rising—these are all real. Lisa Su said data centers could double again by 2027, and the market is willing to listen.
But that's where the problem lies.
The stock price has nearly tripled in one year, and valuations have already priced in many optimistic scenarios in advance. If you give a "good" financial report, people will just think, "That's just it." Although the guidance exceeded consensus, it was still far from the more aggressive figures some expected, and funds were immediately realized. Capital expenditures have risen, cash flow is suppressed, and this has also given a pretext to crash the market.
My view is quite straightforward:
There is indeed short-term overdraw. High expectations combined with high valuations have very low margin for error. Any result that is "just good but not explosive enough" will be used to smash. This after-hours decline is essentially due to poor expectations, not a sudden deterioration in fundamentals.
What about the medium to long term? The story isn't over yet. The demand for AI computing power is real, and AMD is indeed moving from a "Nvidia alternative option" to "having an independent market share." But if Helios and Instinct's growth in volume and market share don't meet the expectations implied in current pricing, they will continue to be proven wrong.
For those making trades, it's now more like betting on execution than on narrative. The narrative has already been fully priced in; the remaining question is whether it can be delivered on time and in the right amount.
In short: The fundamentals are decent, but the stock price has almost exhausted the "decent" part. Next, we'll see if it can continue to exceed expectations, rather than telling the AI story again. #AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn? Ethereum researcher Justin Drake submitted an EIP-8361 draft, proposing a "gradient issuance and burn" mechanism.
The core logic is: as the staking ratio increases, more and more validator rewards are gradually burned.
When the staking ratio reaches 50% (about 60.25 million ETH), the net issuance of the consensus layer drops to zero.
Currently, the staking rate is already 34%, and at the current pace, 50% is not out of reach. If this proposal passes, ETH's supply curve will be completely rewritten—the shift from an "inflationary asset" to a "deflationary asset" will accelerate dramatically. However, the proposal is still under discussion, and the timing and specific implementation methods remain uncertain.
On the Fed's side, the probability of a rate hike in September is still around 58%. Officially, there is no rate hike, but the internal crack between three votes opposing rate hikes has become public. When oil prices fall, the probability of a rate hike decreases a bit; Once the U.S.-Iran talks, the market breathes a sigh of relief. Er Bing is now at 1,850, 60% below its all-time high of 4,950. Whales are buying, ETFs are buying, staking is rising, retail investors are selling, and macroeconomics is putting pressure on them. Before the direction is set, don't overweight your position. Wait until 1,900 holds steady or breaks below 1,830 before making any moves. $ETH #财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
I just finished reading SpaceX's first quarterly report after going public, and just two days later, the epic lifting of restrictions was implemented. This giant spanning aerospace, satellite broadband, and AI computing power is now half supported by strong fundamentals, half by selling pressure, and half by the risk of selling pressure. Let me share my thoughts.
1. Breaking down the financial report: the positive aspects are strong, while the pain points of worry cannot be hidden
Key positive factors: Starlink steadily earns cash flow, with revenue growth significantly exceeding expectations
Total revenue in the second quarter was $7.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 92%, more than 10% higher than Wall Street estimates, fully stabilizing the fundamental profitable market.
1. Starlink is the company's only cash cow
Quarterly revenue was 4.29 billion, operating profit was 1.66 billion, with a profit margin soaring to 38.6%, net profit of $18 million in a single day; Global subscribers reached 12 million, high-priced orders from government, enterprise, and aviation and maritime sectors doubled, and large contracts from the U.S. government continued to be secured, moving closer to becoming the fourth largest telecom operator in the U.S. This business had solid cash flow, and as long as overseas low-end users expanded and maintained ARPU, profits could continue to rise steadily.
2. Overall losses narrowed significantly, and the space launch business steadily expanded
Net loss narrowed from 1.01 billion yuan in the same period last year to 541 million yuan, nearly halving the loss; rocket launch business surged 55% month-on-month, Starship test flights continuously broke through technical bottlenecks, and its satellite networking speed is unique in the industry, with no competitors in the space barrier to catch up in the short term.
3. AI business losses are better than pessimistic expectations
The market had originally predicted a massive loss of over 2.4 billion yuan in the AI computing power sector, but in reality, only 1.26 billion yuan. The pace of burning cash was slower than expected, but revenue has already started to show growth, which is a small surprise.
Negative risks: Capital expenditures surge, stock price plunges over 8% after hours
This is also the core reason why this financial report directly scared off capital: capital expenditure in Q2 was $18.37 billion, a year-on-year surge of 550%. Management clearly stated that the scale of cash burn will not shrink in the next two or three quarters.
The money is mainly invested in two areas: large-scale expansion of AI data centers, Starship iteration + mass production of Starlink satellites. Simply put: the money Starlink is making now is nowhere near enough to fill the investment gap in AI and aerospace, and the company still has a long time before it turns profitable.
Coupled with the AI sector, U.S. stock funds are generally cautious, no longer blindly giving overvaluations, high investment, and slow profits. Funds are betting with their feet, and as soon as earnings come out, stock prices plunge.
2. Major risk: On August 6, the market cap of 100 billion yuan was lifted, and short-term selling pressure was maxed out
This unlocking is considered one of the largest single-stock unlocks in US stock history, with several key points laid bare:
1. Massive scale: Newly added circulating shares > all currently outstanding shares
On August 6, 911.5 million shares of internal employees + early-stage investment institutions will be unlocked, corresponding to a market value exceeding $100 billion; After the lock-up, the circulating shares surged 140%. Originally, the stock price was driven to a high of $225 by the scarcity of chips after listing, but now the stock is overflowing, completely reversing supply and demand.
2. Strong selling motivation; stock price has already fallen below the issue price, but early shareholders still made huge profits
IPO price was $135, and the current stock price is around $110, already below issue price; But early VC and employee shareholding costs were extremely low. Even though the stock price has been halved now, the book unrealized profit is still 10~50 times, indicating a strong desire to cash out and exit. The only factor stabilizing morale: Musk's high-voting shares are locked until 2027, with no large-scale sell-offs.
3. Bears are lying in wait in advance, intensifying volatility
Before the unlock, short positions already accounted for 34% of the circulating shares, totaling over $24 billion; Once the unlocking triggers concentrated sell-offs, the bears will further amplify the downtrend, and short-term stock price volatility will be maxed out.
3. Personal Market Outlook Judgment: Divided into short-term and medium- to long-term trend predictions
In the short term (1~2 weeks, with the lifting and digestion period), I am cautious, with a focus on volatility and pressure
Favorable fundamentals are unlikely to offset the selling pressure caused by the 100-billion-yuan lock-up, and the market is likely to follow two paths:
(1) Weak trend: On the first day of the lock-up, there was concentrated reduction, with the stock price testing the $100~$105 range seeking support;
(2) Fluctuating trend: Leading institutional funds bear most of the selling pressure, with stock prices consolidating at $110~130, gradually digesting panic thanks to Starlink orders.
For short-term trading, I won't rush to bottom-fish. After the lock-up ends, if the turnover rate stabilizes 2~3 trading days without heavy volume drops, then it's safer to look for opportunities.
Medium- to long-term (quarterly dimension): The core is two major turning points that determine whether valuations can stabilize
1. Positive turning point: AI business revenue is rapidly ramping up, Starlink profit growth outpacing capital expenditure growth, and the market sees a timeline for overall business profitability, with high valuations providing support;
2. Negative turning point: AI spending continues to exceed expectations, Starlink overseas user growth is slowing, and with multiple rounds of unlocked shares circulating, valuations will be further compressed.
In the long run, Starlink's monopoly barrier in satellite communications and Starship's low-cost launch technology are hard assets, but current valuations have overdrawn too much optimistic AI expectations, requiring performance to be realized step by step.
A quick chat
The market is currently deeply divided. Some believe that the stock price halved + the unlocking effect means all the negative news has been exhausted, planning to ambush in batches; Others believe it will take at least half a month to digest the 100 billion selling pressure and would rather wait and see without touching. What do you think: after this unlock, SPCX will hit new lows first, or will funds just bottom-fish for a rebound?AMD's earnings report beats expectations, but it fell over 9% in after-hours trading. Why? Perfect earnings and inflation expectations—this is the brutal game of AI chip stocks
The core contradiction lies in "expectations are too high":
1. Q3 guidance is "not explosive enough": The company expects Q3 revenue to be around $13 billion, higher than analysts' average forecast of $12.5 billion, but some buyers have already raised their expectations to $13.5–14 billion. When stock prices have risen more than 140% this year, the market wants a "surprise" rather than a "qualification."
2. Capital expenditure surge: Q2 capital expenditure reached $808 million, nearly three times the market expectation of $298.6 million, raising concerns about profits and cash flow.
3. The call failed to dispel doubts: When analysts asked why Q3 growth was lower than Q2, the CFO did not provide a clear and optimistic answer.
Watch SanDisk tonight!
#AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn?
$SNDK $AMD $BTC Start with a map, and the rest is all made up? No, Lao Gao will chat with you today about something real.
SpaceX's first financial report is out: revenue of 7.814 billion, a year-on-year surge of 92%; EBITDA of 3.5 billion, 75% higher than expected; AI losses narrowed beyond expectations. Is the data good? Good.
Then it fell nearly 9% in after-hours trading.
Why? Good performance is useless; tomorrow the 100 billion unlocking will be topped up. On August 6, 911.5 million shares were unlocked, which is over 100 billion USD at 110 dollars. Funds not leaving are just waiting to get hit?
---
Lao Gao's journey of life: from "Wow, awesome" to "Holy crap, run!"
To be honest, when I first saw the financial report, Lao Gao really felt it was about to take off. Revenue was 7.8 billion, while market expectations were only 6.9 billion; AI revenue surged 247% year-on-year; Starlink users doubled to 12 million. Starlink alone held profits of 1.66 billion, while AI is still burning cash but losses are narrowing.
Musk also said he aims to reach a trillion yuan in revenue by 2030. Sounds exciting, right?
But when Lao Gao calmed down, he saw capital expenditure was 18.37 billion, of which AI accounted for 15.8 billion. Moreover, executives said capital expenditure in Q3 and Q4 was about the same as in Q2. This money-burning speed is even faster than Lao Gao's hotpot meals.
Even worse, the restrictions will be lifted tomorrow. $100 billion in new chips flooding the market. This isn't bad news—it's a tsunami.
Trading direction: Avoid flying knives in the short term; watch two signals in the medium term
In the short term, it's mainly a wait-and-see approach. Everyone sold ≠ the lock-up was lifted, founders locked up until 2027, but early investors and employees are the main selling pressure. The stock price has already dropped nearly 20% compared to the IPO price of $135. How many people are willing to sell at this level? No one knows. Lao Gao doesn't recommend you bet on this variable.
Strategy: If you want to participate, wait until the lock-up is lifted and selling pressure is released before watching. For support, watch the 100-110 range. If it falls below it, don't buy; wait until it stabilizes.
Also, note the transmission—SanDisk's earnings report is imminent. The storage sector has already seen significant gains recently, with SanDisk up over 10% in pre-market trading. If SanDisk's capital spending guidance also exceeds expectations, it could likely repeat SpaceX's trend. Don't hold too much position before the earnings report.
Trading Insights: Three iron rules that Lao Gao earned with real money
First, good financial reports ≠ stock prices rise. The market looks at "expectations gap" and "what happens next." Capital expenditures higher than expected are even more fatal than revenue exceeding expectations. Remember this: the market rewards surprises, punishes shocks.
Second, when the lock-up is lifted, fundamentals are sidelined. No matter how good the performance, it can't withstand a trillion-yuan chip dump. Short-term chip structure is ten thousand times more important than long-term narrative. Don't go against supply.
Third, don't follow the crowd or take the flying knife. Palantir rising 30% means its earnings have materialized. AMD's 9% drop is guidance that failed to meet aggressive expectations. Tech stocks are deeply divided internally. You need to see clearly what you're holding.
Old Gao finished speaking. Think carefully. Be timid when it's time to be timid, and don't hesitate when it's time to act.
$SPCX $SNDK $AMD
#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
#SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable
#AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn? Last night, Filecoin put two things together on X: it cited industry trackers saying that by 2026, the delivery cycle for dedicated industrial SSDs could exceed 20 weeks; It also claimed that Filecoin storage has already been deployed and running, without the same waiting time. This comparison is spreading but cannot be directly dismissed as "hardware shortages have been solved by network storage."
First, TrendForce's July NAND update indeed attributed the 2026 tightness to rising AI-related demand and limited expansion, and expected new supply to become more apparent in the second half of 2027. Second, Filecoin's March release of Onchain Cloud mainnet launch data showed 49.41 TiB, 478 active datasets, and 81 payment wallets, indicating the product is already running. However, this is only an early baseline disclosed by the project team and cannot replace customer-side availability, latency, retrieval success rate, or compliance assessment.
My judgment: SSD delivery cycles describe specific hardware, while Filecoin provides data services carried by multiple storage providers, and the constraints they address are not the same. What really matters is not "whether there is capacity," but whether the specified data can be reliably written, retrieved, replicated, and stored long-term according to SLAs. Currently, supply chain pressure and Filecoin's product launch can be confirmed, but it cannot be confirmed that it has become a plug-and-play alternative for industrial customers.Trump administration plans to ban Chinese optical modules: A-share "Yi Zhongtian" is shocked, but "decoupling" is not so easy
1. Overview of the Incident
On August 4, Reuters cited four sources reporting that the Trump administration is drafting a ban to prohibit imports of new Chinese data center modules, mainly targeting optical modules (optical transceivers). The FCC is formulating related measures, and U.S. officials hope to announce and implement them within 2026, citing the aim of "preventing Chinese companies from stealing data or embedding malware."
However, insiders also emphasized that the FCC may still modify or suspend the restriction. The Chinese Embassy in the United States has responded, urging the U.S. side to "stop smearing Chinese companies" and warning that all necessary measures will be taken.
2. Market Reaction: A-shares are shocked, while U.S. stocks are on a reverse frenzy
On the A-share market, the optical communication sector plummeted collectively in the morning session of August 5:
· Zhongji Xuchuang: Fell over 13% at one point, narrowed the closing loss to about 7%
· New Yisheng: Fell over 10% at one point, narrowed the closing loss to about 4%
· Tianfu Communication: Fell over 6% at one point, narrowed its closing loss to about 3%
· Liante Technology: Down over 11%, Cambridge Technology approaches limit-down
The direct reason for the plunge: these companies are highly dependent on the U.S. market—over 90% of Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue comes from overseas, while over 96% of Xinyisheng's revenue is overseas.
On the US side, however, the opposite trend reversed—AAOI surged 19%, Coherent and Lumentum both surged 15% intraday, and Corning rose nearly 8%. The market logic is clear: if Chinese optical modules are banned, orders will flow to domestic U.S. suppliers.
3. In-depth Analysis: Why Is "Decoupling" Not So Easy?
1. The probability of implementation is extremely low
CITIC Securities bluntly stated that the final result is "all talk and little action," and CICC also stated that "in the medium to long term, it's highly likely that there will still be more talk than action." The core logic is:
Chinese manufacturers hold absolute global dominance: 7 out of the world's top ten optical module manufacturers are Chinese companies, and 800G/1.6T high-speed optical modules account for as much as 70% of shipments by Chinese manufacturers. North American domestic manufacturers have obvious shortcomings in both production capacity and technological advancement.
The substitution gap cannot be bridged in the short term: long certification cycles for optical modules, slow ramp-up in mass production yield, and delivery stability requiring years of validation. North American companies may not be able to fill the gap for years, and the progress of AI infrastructure in the US will be directly slowed down.
U.S. cloud providers strongly oppose this: the ban will drive up costs for cloud providers like Amazon. When tariffs are added in 2025, optical modules will be included in the exemption list due to strong opposition from U.S. cloud providers.
2. Even if implemented, the impact is controllable
Chinese manufacturers have long been prepared: since 2022, companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyisheng have already established production capacity in Thailand, and from 2025, they will further advance production lines in the United States. The supply chain's "physical address" has long been iterationed, and policies have made it difficult to truly block delivery.
The ban has an "exemption" design: the FCC plans to exempt many non-Chinese suppliers. Even if you land, you may still have many exemption situations.
3. Deep binding of China-US industrial chains
Optical modules are essentially optoelectronic signal conversion devices and do not store business data. Upstream core components such as DSP chips and analog chips mostly come from American suppliers such as Marvell and Broadcom. A one-size-fits-all restriction only leads to mutual destruction.
4. Summary
This wave of "ban panic" on optical modules is essentially another round of emotional shock amid the US-China tech rivalry. In the short term, market panic is understandable—the related companies' revenue from the U.S. is indeed too high. But a calm analysis reveals that China's global dominance in optical modules cannot be replaced in the short term, and the economic cost of the ban is equally enormous for the U.S. itself.
For investors, after panic sell-offs, it's important to distinguish between emotional shocks and fundamental deterioration—the former is an opportunity, the latter is a risk. At least for now, this seems more like a "ghost story" amplified by emotions, rather than a fundamental reversal of industry logic.
$MU Strategy is selling coins again.
From July 27 to August 2, the company sold 1,638 BTC at an average price of $63,957, cashing out approximately $105 million.
Open interest dropped from 843,775 to 842,138. This is the third coin sale in 2026.
Six consecutive weeks without buying coins, selling coins twice in a row—the first time selling 3,588 tokens (216 million), and this time selling 1,638 coins (105 million).
The scale is shrinking, but the frequency is accelerating. Cash reserves have grown from 3.2 billion to 4 billion.
mNAV has long since fallen below 1, and the cycle of buying coins through premium financing has ended.
Strategy is shifting from a "Bitcoin hoarder" to a "Bitcoin capital manager."
Bitcoin is now around 64,000, half the price of its historical high. But with US Treasury yields above 5% right in front of us, institutions don't come, retail investors dare not move, miners are transforming, and big players are re-rotating positions. Don't hold too much position before the direction emerges; it's not too late to wait until 64,250 is above before watching. Wait for the direction to emerge before following it—better than blindly rushing in the fog.
$BTC 亚太市场率先传来暖意，日韩股市双双高开，给新的一周开了个好头。 日本方面，日经225指数开盘后迅速拉升，涨幅扩大至2%，显示出较强的买盘意愿。韩国市场表现更为激进，KOSPI指数开盘即上涨3.8%，强势收复6600点整数关口。$SKHYNIX 值得注意的是，这已经是该指数近期连续第三个交易日尝试上攻这一关键位置，今天的突破似乎为市场注入了一剂强心针。 盘面最亮眼的当属半导体产业链。权重股SK海力士一马当先，涨幅超过7%，领跑全场；三星电子也不甘示弱，大涨5%。这两家存储芯片巨头联手走强，很大程度上撑起了大盘的涨幅。 有市场分析认为，这可能与近期全球AI算力需求持续升温、存储芯片价格预期企稳有关，资金开始重新回流到这一前期调整充分的赛道。$SNDK 不过，细看今天的上涨，消息面上并没有出现特别爆炸性的单点利好。这轮反弹更像是前期超跌后的一次情绪修复，加上进入8月，部分机构资金开始布局三季度行情，趁着消息面相对平稳，选择在权重股上回补仓位。 一天的上涨还不能说明太多问题。日经指数上方仍有均线压力，KOSPI指数能否站稳6600点也需要明天继续观察。对于普通投资者来说，这种普涨行情下最忌Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $211 million yesterday: BlackRock IBIT alone took $170 million, institutions are "buying up"
1. Data core
On August 4, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net inflow of $211 million, ending several days of capital swings:
· BlackRock IBIT: Net inflow of $170 million, historical total net inflow of $60.763 billion
· Fidelity FBTC: Net inflow of $19.5752 million, historical total net inflow of $9.972 billion
· Total net asset value: $78.258 billion, ETF net asset ratio of 6.06%
· Historical cumulative net inflow: $51.706 billion
2. Data Interpretation: IBIT is "Dominating," and institutions are pricing their positions
1. BlackRock IBIT Reaches $170 Million in a Single Day, Accounting for Over 80%
Of the total 211 million inflows, IBIT alone accounted for 170 million (80.6%). This indicates that traditional institutional funds mainly enter the Bitcoin market through BlackRock, the "largest channel," while other ETF products have relatively limited appeal. BlackRock IBIT's total historical inflows have reached $60.763 billion, making it the absolute dominant among the 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs.
2. After continuous outflow, the first obvious backflow occurs
In the previous week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $423 million, with $178 million outflowing on July 31 alone. Yesterday's net inflow of $211 million marked the beginning of institutional funds "buying up" again. BlackRock ETF inflows are seen as a more stable long-term allocation demand rather than short-term speculative funds.
3. Contrast: ETH ETFs are still bleeding
On the same day, Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $11.4178 million, forming a sharp contrast with BTC ETFs. Funds are shifting from ETH to BTC, reflecting that institutions are more inclined to hold "digital gold" Bitcoin amid macro uncertainty over the more volatile Ethereum.
3. Significance for the market
1. Institutions continue to accumulate shares in the $62,000-64,000 range
Yesterday's $211 million inflow was no coincidence—on July 30, IBIT also saw a single-day inflow of $126 million. Institutions are continuously buying in the $62,000-$64,000 range, providing a solid demand base for Bitcoin's price.
2. Forming a "counterparty" with retail sell-offs
Previous on-chain data showed retail investors had net outflows of about 360,000 ETH over the past week, while Bitcoin retail investors continued to sell off. The $211 million net inflow from ETFs coincided with the panic selling by retail investors, forming a counter-market trade—chips were shifting from retail to institutions.
3. With a net asset ratio of 6.06%, ETFs are becoming a major force in Bitcoin pricing
The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $78.258 billion, accounting for 6.06% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. This ratio continues to rise, indicating that ETF capital flows are increasingly influencing BTC prices.
4. Summary
Yesterday's net ETF inflow of $211 million was the latest evidence of institutions "buying up" in the $62,000-$64,000 range. BlackRock IBIT led with $170 million in inflows, indicating a trend of traditional institutional funds continuously allocating Bitcoin through the largest ETF channel.
This stands in stark contrast to panic selling by retail investors and the continued outflows of ETH ETFs—the market is undergoing a massive capital migration "from retail to institution, from offcoins to Bitcoin." As long as the ETF maintains its net inflow trend, Bitcoin's bottom support in the $62,000-$64,000 range remains solid.
$ETH Bitcoin fluctuated around 64,200 today, rising just over 1% in 24 hours.
Yesterday morning it was just over 62,300, but by the end of the night it had come back nearly 2,000 dollars.
The trigger was oil prices.
Brent crude plunged nearly 5% yesterday to $83.77. Reports of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran have emerged, and the market interprets this as a cooling of geopolitical risks.
As oil prices fell, inflation expectations cooled, and US Treasury yields also fell—the 10-year yield fell to 4.613%, and the 30-year yield fell from a high of 5.25%.
CME data shows that the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from over 80% to 58.4%.
The market is even more aggressive, directly betting that there will be no rate hikes in September.
Technically, Bitcoin is trading at the end of a converging triangle between 63,000 and 64,200. If the volume increases and the above level holds above 64,250, it will directly open up short squeeze space toward 65,500 to 66,000. Below 63,000 is the first line of defense; if broken, it may look for support near 62,000. I personally won't heavily bet on the direction at this level; I'll wait until it really breaks through 64,250. Don't overdo your position. Before the direction is determined, it's better to watch more and move less than to move recklessly. $BTC 8月4日，现货大饼ETF净流出了1.68亿美元。
前一天8月3日还是净流入2.23亿，一天之内方向翻转了将近4个亿。
贝莱德IBIT前一天流入了2.46亿，8月4日灰度GBTC流出了6911万。
大钱在重新分配仓位，不是系统性撤退。但问题在于，ETF方向不稳定的时候，大饼就很难走出趋势性行情。连续两天方向相反，说明机构自己也在犹豫。这个位置做多做空都难受，方向没出来之前仓位别太重。
$BTC A new macro variable has emerged — the US and Japan have jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama officially announced that Japan and the US have taken joint action in the forex market, buying yen and selling dollars.
This is the first US-Japan joint intervention in the yen exchange rate since 1998.
The US Treasury also withdrew $77 billion from the Supplementary Financing Account to support the yen. This means liquidity in US Treasuries is being drained. If the supply pressure on US debt continues to increase, global funding costs may rise further. The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged past 5.25%, and although it has now fallen back to 5.17%, it remains at a high level. Bitcoin dropped from 65,000 to 63,000, not due to fundamentals but because of macro pressure. $BTC