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Once SanDisk's earnings report came out, the stock price plummeted, dragging down Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung under pressure as well. The market's first reaction was "Here we go again," but many people were still comforting themselves: "This is just a normal correction under high expectations; the AI memory supercycle is still ongoing."
Wake up. This drop is not an accident; it's a signal.
1. Good news is no longer valuable
Samsung delivered record profits, yet the market still crashed. Micron and Hynix's previously strong performance couldn't prevent their stock prices from retreating over 20% from their highs, officially entering a technical bear market.
Now SanDisk's revenue has surged and gross margin is off the charts, but it was still sold off due to guidance falling short of expectations.
What does this mean? The market no longer pays for "past good performance"; it fears "future weakness."
When even the strongest earnings can't lift stock prices, it means the climax of this narrative has passed.
2. The capacity arms race is planting landmines
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are all frantically expanding HBM and advanced DRAM production almost simultaneously. Capacity for 2026 is basically sold out, which sounds great, but what about 2027-2028?
When everyone builds new fabs at the same time, the supply-demand gap will quickly narrow and may even turn into oversupply. The classic memory industry script is: shortage → windfall profits → frantic capacity expansion → oversupply → price collapse.
We are currently in the "windfall profits driving capacity expansion" phase, and the subsequent price pressure is already being priced in by the market.
3. The marginal growth of AI demand is slowing
Early HBM shortages pushed prices and margins to historic extremes. But as capacity gradually releases and cloud providers' capital expenditure growth may peak, the high growth slope is flattening.
The market fears not "no demand," but "demand growth falling short of expectations." Once this expectation gap appears, valuations will be corrected in a very harsh way.
4. Valuations have long overextended the dream
This AI memory rally has pushed stock prices to an almost perfectly priced level. Any slight hesitation in guidance or doubts about 2027 supply and demand will be magnified as reasons to kill valuations.
The current drop is not due to a sudden fundamental collapse but because the market is finally starting to reexamine "how long the supercycle can last" with a cooler eye.
In summary:
The AI memory bull market has not ended immediately, but it has moved from a "certainty of windfall profits" phase into a "high-risk game" phase.
The continued decline after earnings is the most direct proof—capital is voting with its feet, telling us: the perfect story is over, and now we need to see if reality can keep up.
Those still holding at high levels need to ask themselves one question:
Are you betting on "shortages lasting forever," or are you ready to accept the other side of the cycle
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $SNDK $XMU $SKHYNIX Green candles do not mean the entire market is improving 🚨
This rally looks strong, but beneath the surface, liquidity choices are becoming increasingly cautious.
Funds are not flowing into all altcoins but rotating among a small group of winners, with most projects quietly losing relative strength.
The data actually makes it very clear:
📉 Open interest is starting to cool down
📊 Trading volume remains stable
This indicates the market is in a disciplined holding state rather than a full-blown euphoric mood.
Traders no longer chase every pulse but concentrate funds on the highest-confidence patterns. Smart money is carefully selecting rather than blindly casting a wide net.
🟢 Assets attracting new liquidity
$JELLYJELLY • $OPG • $SLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP • $MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
🔵 Core coins leading the market
$BTC — the largest liquidity magnet
$ETH — institutional money’s favorite
$SOL — high Beta Layer 1 leader
$DATA — AI infrastructure narrative
$WLD — AI and digital identity sector
$HYPE — risk appetite thermometer
$ZEC and $DOGE — retail sentiment barometers
🔴 Projects still struggling to attract funds
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
The biggest advantage of this market move is not predicting when the next big green candle will come but seeing exactly where the funds are flowing.
When capital becomes selective, relative strength matters more than hype stories. The strongest trends will attract more liquidity, while weaker projects may continue to underperform even as the overall market rises.
At this stage of the cycle, there’s no need to chase every green candle; quietly follow the direction of the funds instead.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins #Trading #Liquidity #MarketStructure #DeFi #西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 Purely handmade post, not AI
US July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, yet the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Once the data was released, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 4.67% to 4.60%, but the long bond did not surge accordingly: $TLT is currently at $82.60, up only about 0.1%, and the intraday high of 83.04 did not hold.
This is where the market reveals its cracks. Weak employment data has put the brakes on rate hike expectations, but it hasn't removed oil price and inflation risks from the long end; stocks can still rise, but duration funds are reluctant to chase.
No opening for now, just observing. Only consider buying between $82.4–$82.6 on support; open long positions again after firmly breaking above $83.05; do not buy if it falls below $82.4. Limit single trade maximum loss to 2% of total capital, no leverage used. Data as of 22:07 Beijing time, August 7.Yesterday was the first day SpaceX was unlocked. Previously, many in the industry worried that if more than 911 million employee and early investor shares could be sold, the market might be stunned. But on the other hand, SpaceX's US stock price actually rose 6.1% that day, which is quite a slap in the face—quite a slap in the face. Everyone was indeed a bit nervous before. Think about it, with so many "old friends" waiting to cash out suddenly able to sell off, wouldn't the stock price shake three times? But the market voted with its feet and immediately pulled up a bullish candlestick. What does this indicate? This shows that the funds wanting to take over are more anxious and confident than those who want to run away. $SPCX Another surprising point is that the "whales" who play big in the futures market didn't back down. According to monitoring data, on the day the lock-up was lifted, seven other major investors were adding positions, investing a total of $12.58 million to go long. Moreover, five of these are "new faces" who previously had no positions, clearly new money entering the market. Although the overall open interest slightly decreased compared to before the earnings report, it was still much higher than before the big players collectively bought last Friday. Right now, both bulls and bears are still locked in a fierce battle. Looking at the number of players, the long ones have the advantage, about 2 to 1; But looking at the amount of money, the short side has a larger single transaction, so the total amount is slightly behind the longs, with a ratio of 0.89 to 1. However, the funding rate is close to neutral, indicating that everyone's sentiment is relatively stable and not to the point of a one-sided frenzy. Overall, SpaceX's clearance through this lockdown has temporarily stabilized, with no unexpected incidents. Insiders aren't in a hurry to run, and the big money outside still dares to rush in—this itself is a sign of confidence. RightGold and silver added 2.2 trillion in market value in 3 days, while Bitcoin's total market cap is only 1.3 trillion
3 days, 2.2 trillion USD
Bitcoin has existed for 16 years with a total market cap of 1.3 trillion. The market value that gold and silver added in three days is almost double that of Bitcoin. Would you say that's exaggerated or not?
This week, gold rose 6.6%, breaking through $4300. Silver was even more impressive, soaring 11.6% to $64. Domestic gold jewelry prices surged nearly 60 yuan per gram overnight.
And Bitcoin? Still hovering between 64,000-65,000.
Why? ADP employment data dropped from 98,000 directly down to 44,000. The job market cooled, the Fed can't raise rates anymore. The US dollar index fell below 100. The Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen, oil prices crashed. The People's Bank of China has increased gold holdings for 21 consecutive months.
The market is betting real money on rate cuts and safe havens, but the money went to gold, not Bitcoin.
Simply put, capital is flocking to hard assets; Bitcoin was skipped this round.
It's not that Bitcoin is failing, it's that funds are seeking safety—gold is the ultimate safe haven, Bitcoin is still waiting for its narrative.
Once rate cuts really land and liquidity truly loosens, money will flow out of gold and move beyond the risk curve.
In terms of strategy, I’m not chasing gold, nor am I selling BTC.
Bitcoin is currently in a "waiting for the wind" state—the wind hasn't arrived yet, but the direction is already clear.$BTC
$ETH
In January 2025, Bitcoin broke through 109,588, signaling the end of the phase bull market, and then kept falling until it bottomed out in April.
During the same period, Ethereum dropped from 4,100 to a brutal 1,385.
Looking back from now, one should have liquidated in time before January.
But in the real environment, selling is a very difficult event, even harder than bottom-fishing in a bear market.
Let's see what happened at that time.
Institutions unanimously expected $200,000: Bernstein, Standard Chartered, ARK, and Deutsche Bank almost simultaneously released reports setting a $200,000 Bitcoin target for 2025, citing triple drivers of pension inflows, deeper institutional allocation, and policy friendliness.
Trump's policies had just begun: The market generally believed his inauguration was only the starting point, with a series of policy benefits to come, including stablecoin legislation, 401k pension market entry, and Bitcoin strategic reserves; the narrative was far from being realized.
ETF funds kept flowing in: In January, spot ETF net inflows totaled $5.3 billion, with BlackRock's single product attracting $3.2 billion, showing continuous institutional buying.
The four-year cycle model said the top was still early: The halving was in April 2024, and historically the top occurs 12–18 months after halving, i.e., mid to late 2025. January was only the 9th month, so according to this model, it was not the top but mid-mountain.
These views were not made up after the fact; they were public information seen daily at the time. Being in it, one would naturally feel the bull market was still early, just mid-mountain, making it hard to actively think the market was ending.
This is the first hurdle: the whole world was full of good news, no reason to sell.
More importantly, the mainstream interpretation of the January drop was "picking up passengers in reverse" and deleveraging to lighten the vehicle for an upward path.
Because each bull market's main upward wave experiences two or three sideways consolidations, each time people think the bear market is coming, but in reality, these are just temporary adjustments.
However, after many times, a "wolf is coming" effect forms, so when the real bear market drop happens, people mistake it for a correction, creating a mental imprint.
This is the second hurdle: ignoring risk, all declines are inherently seen as shakeouts.
We all know the bear market drop before April 2025 was due to Trump's tariff policies.
But at the beginning of 2025, almost no one considered tariffs as the core variable accelerating the bear market.
Only when the first large-scale implementation caused a crash in February 2025 did the market start to take it seriously; by April, global reciprocal tariffs were fully implemented, and Bitcoin bottomed out. Meanwhile, altcoins fell for a full four months, with declines up to 80%.
This is the third hurdle: you cannot know the real bear market major negative news during the bull market, but it will inevitably appear.
So trying to cash out timely during a bull market based on so-called news and analysis is inherently very difficult.
When it's time to sell, the whole world is full of good news; by the time bad news really comes, the bear market is already halfway through, and selling then is even harder because people are loss-averse.
Therefore, don't put too much energy into narratives and news.
What really matters is focusing on chip structure, which brings us back to our old view.
The fundamental reason the bull market ends is buy-side exhaustion,
The fundamental factor causing buy-side exhaustion is "price consensus."
In 2025, Ethereum consolidated around 3,800; when it broke below that consolidation, most started to fear, but the next day it recovered and then surged without looking back, breaking through 4,700.
The critical moment came after that 3,800 consolidation ended, with continuous good news, especially Tom Lee repeatedly saying Ethereum would break 10,000 by year-end. People knew he was exaggerating; most thought 6,000–8,000 was a reasonable target, and then a price anchor formed at 6,000 for Ethereum, with news spreading that price.
More and more people believed and bought, resulting in buy-side exhaustion and the bull market ending.
So when a price consensus forms, it's time to start reducing positions, selling more as it rises, selling regularly, just like dollar-cost averaging but reversed.
Because you have a position, you are part of the market, and your thinking represents the public's thinking, so you will have the same price anchor, but your action becomes selling rather than continuing to believe like the crowd.
So I summarize the following detailed points:
1. Everyone firmly believes the bull market has arrived.
2. The public begins to agree on a higher price anchor.
3. Declines are no longer feared, seen as mere corrections and deleveraging.
When these signals appear, ignore all good news, sell firmly, don't fear selling early; selling early means you are still rational. The real danger is the top, where selling feels like betrayal, admitting you were wrong, and you might even buy back, causing bigger losses.
I trust these words more: "Selling too early always profits; escaping the top is a disaster."
Now the bear market has reached August; the bull market will definitely come. The purpose of writing this article is to prepare for the next bull market.
I hope to stay clear-headed at the end of the bull market and timely lock in profits.
In crypto, compounding comes from realizing profits, not necessarily from holding long-term.Nonfarm payrolls surprise, Bitcoin breaks through 65,000 — but the real test is just beginning
As soon as the nonfarm data was released, the market was in an uproar — July seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment decreased by 23,000, while the market expected an increase of 80,000. This is the first negative nonfarm figure since February this year, and the previous value was sharply revised down from 57,000 to 20,000. The unemployment rate slightly dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, the lowest since June 2025.
After the data release, the market immediately reacted — the US dollar index plunged to around 99.55, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell sharply by 4.29 basis points, and spot gold surged over 3% to above $4,370. The three major US stock index futures all rose, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.25%. Bitcoin responded by rising to $65,234.3, a 24-hour increase of 1.3% — finally breaking the deadlock of consolidating in the $64,000–65,000 range for several consecutive days.
So, what is the outlook for Bitcoin?
The short-term positive has already been realized, but the mid-term logic is worth pondering. The direct implication of the negative nonfarm data is that it weakens the Federal Reserve's motivation to raise interest rates in September. Interest rate futures market data shows that the implied probability of a September rate hike has dropped to 43.9%. For assets like Bitcoin that are highly sensitive to liquidity, the cooling of rate hike expectations is undoubtedly positive. This is the core driving force behind Bitcoin's immediate rise after the data release.
But there is another side to the coin. Negative employment data, especially the significant downward revision of the previous two months, also signals an economic slowdown. If employment weakness persists, the market will shift from a "rate cut trade" to a "recession trade" — risk assets will also come under pressure amid recession expectations. Bitcoin is currently caught in a dual game of "rate cut optimism" and "recession pessimism."
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin briefly broke through $65,000 after the data release, but this level has been repeatedly tested as a short-term resistance zone. Whether it can hold firmly still requires observing the volume support in the coming days.
What truly determines the future direction is the CPI data and the Jackson Hole central bank symposium in the next two weeks. Nonfarm payrolls are just the first domino; inflation data is the key to deciding whether the Fed will truly pivot in September. If CPI continues to cool and rate cut expectations rise further, Bitcoin is expected to genuinely break through $65,000 and open up upside space; if inflation remains stubborn, tonight's gains may be fleeting.
As for the broader altcoin market, the liquidity expectation improvement brought by the nonfarm data is theoretically positive for the overall crypto market. $ETH followed $BTC to surpass $1,930, $SOL oscillated around $74, and major coins like $XRP, $ADA, $DOT, $AVAX, $LINK, $POL, $UNI, $ATOM, $FTM, and $NEAR mostly rebounded slightly with the market. However, altcoin trends depend more on their respective ecosystem fundamentals and capital rotation rhythms; macro-level liquidity improvement is just a backdrop.
In summary: The nonfarm surprise gave Bitcoin a reason for a short-term rally, but whether $65,000 can turn from resistance into support still needs CPI data to seal the confirmation. Complete Summary of Nonfarm Payroll Night Market (2026.08.07)
I. Core Nonfarm Data This Time
1. July Nonfarm Payrolls Added: -23,000, market expectation +80,000, significantly below expectations, first negative growth since February
2. July Unemployment Rate: 4.1%, expected 4.2%, slight decline
3. Market Pricing: Employment clearly weakens, Fed September rate cut expectations sharply rise, USD and US Treasury yields quickly decline
II. Overall Market Situation
After data release, global assets moved collectively, a typical "bad news = good for risk assets" scenario.
USD index plunged rapidly, gold and silver surged violently in the short term; US tech stocks strengthened pre-market, storage and semiconductor sectors rebounded.
Bitcoin briefly surged to test upper resistance, then slightly retreated, with clear profit-taking pressure and rapidly expanding long-short divergence.
SNDK rebounded in sync with tech sector, short-term oversold recovery, but heavy overhead supply limits sustained rise.
Overall sentiment is short-term bullish but driven by news, not a trend reversal; short-term volatility will continue to expand.
III. Core Bullish and Bearish Logic
Bullish
1. Employment data sharply weakens, market rate cut expectations fully priced in, liquidity easing expectations benefit growth and risk assets;
2. USD weakens, funds flow out of USD assets into stocks, crypto, and precious metals;
3. Prior continuous pullback created oversold rebound demand, nonfarm news directly ignited short-term bulls.
Bearish
1. This is a news-driven pulse rally, not a fundamental reversal; after the bullish news settles, many profit-takers choose to exit;
2. Unemployment rate slightly declines, internal data contradictions exist, some institutions do not agree with sustained easing and hesitate to chase highs;
3. Dense chip concentration at key resistance above, without continuous incremental funds, difficult to break through in one go;
4. After short-term surge, prone to buy the rumor, sell the fact, with pullback and shakeout.
IV. Future Market Scenarios
1. Oscillating Recovery (High Probability): After news heat fades, market returns to original range-bound oscillation, retesting support for validity before choosing direction.
2. Continued Rebound: Funds keep supporting, hold above key resistance, open new upward space, continue testing higher levels.
3. Bullish Realization Pullback: Bull power quickly exhausts, short-term rebound ends, market returns to correction, retesting important lower support.🔥🔥🔥Breaking News🔥🔥🔥
The just-released nonfarm payrolls report dropped a bombshell on the market.
Expected to add 80,000 jobs, the actual number decreased by 23,000, and historical data for May and June was revised down by a total of 103,000. The employment heat has been directly disproven. Don't be fooled by the slight drop in the unemployment rate; the decline in labor force participation is the real story behind the scenes. The employment base has genuinely weakened.
The market reaction was decisive: the US dollar plunged, US Treasury yields fell sharply, and the market wiped out the September rate hike expectations, starting to price in rate cut expectations again.
Many people rush to go long when they see worsening data, but a warning here:
Weak employment is a double-edged sword. On one side, expectations of looser liquidity benefit risk assets; on the other, continued weakening employment means rising recession risk, which will also lead to collective sell-offs in risk assets.
From the crypto perspective: short-term sentiment is boosted, but don’t imagine a big bull market just from one big green candle. A single month’s nonfarm data cannot determine the whole year; we still need to watch inflation data for further confirmation.
Tonight is Friday and the weekend, liquidity is poor, and the risk of spikes remains high. Don’t go all-in betting on data dividends; risk control must always come first.
⚠️ The above is only a market viewpoint sharing and does not constitute any investment advice!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Tonight's nonfarm payroll data has been released. Here's a brief summary of its impact on $BTC, $ETH, and the AI storage sector.
Actual data:
July nonfarm payrolls: -23,000 (market expectation was around +80,000), unemployment rate at 4.1%. Clearly weaker than expected.
Market implications:
Weak nonfarm = cooling labor market = further easing of Fed rate hike pressure.
The market usually interprets this as positive for risk assets.
Bitcoin and Ethereum: Slightly positive. The weak data lowers expectations for "higher for longer" interest rates, improving liquidity expectations and supporting risk assets like BTC and ETH. There may be some short-term boost, but whether key resistance levels can be broken depends on whether capital truly follows through. AI storage sector ($MU, $SNDJK, $SKHYNIX Hynix, etc.): Also slightly positive. Tech/growth stocks are sensitive to interest rates, and weak nonfarm data helps sentiment recovery. However, the storage sector itself has recently shown clear divergence (Micron relatively strong, Hynix weaker). Whether the data-driven positive sentiment translates into sustained gains depends on the sector's own capital flow and earnings logic.
Personal view: Tonight's weak nonfarm data is overall slightly positive for BTC, ETH, and the AI storage sector, signaling a "risk appetite recovery." But the market has already priced in some expectations in advance; true sustainability depends on subsequent capital response and weekend sentiment.
Manage your positions well, don't chase highs, I plan to short at high levels.
Markets carry risks, invest cautiously. The above does not constitute investment advice. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Are the coins rising in the crypto space now mostly altcoins or air coins?
Here's a core conclusion first:
Not all the coins rising now are air coins, but the vast majority of short-term pulse rallies are concentrated in MEME and small-cap altcoins; mainstream altcoins with fundamentals are only a few. Under the current fund stock game, the priority for speculation is: small-cap sentiment coins > narrative mainstream coins, while most slowly declining targets are ignored.
1. First, clarify three easily confused terms
Mainstream altcoins ($ETH, $CFX, $ADA, $TRX, $SOL, etc.)
They have public chain ecosystems, real on-chain users, ongoing development teams, and real application demand, so they cannot be equated directly with air coins. Their rise depends on sector news and ecosystem progress, with relatively grounded volatility.
MEME coins ($SPX, $PEPE, $GIGGLE, etc.)
No business implementation, no reliance on technical value, completely dependent on community hype and fund sentiment games. Not a traditional "air scam," but no intrinsic value, purely a chip game, and the hype fades quickly.
Pure air coins / scam coins
No open-source code, no team info, no ecosystem, with manipulators pre-building positions, pumping then dumping directly to run away, aiming to harvest retail investors, with a very high chance of going to zero.
2. Current market reality (2026.08.07)
No incremental funds in the market, purely internal fund rotation
BTC is sideways; funds are unwilling to stay long in $BTC, always looking for higher returns, so they flow to smaller circulating supply targets. Small-cap coins require less capital, so a small amount can cause big rallies, which visually looks like "a bunch of altcoins are rising."
The market is extremely polarized and split
✅ A few strong targets fall into two categories:
One: established public chains (today's $CFX, $ADA) with ecosystem news catalysts, supported by fundamentals;
Two: various new and old MEME and small-cap hot coins, short-term pumped by hype, also perceived as "chaotic altcoin speculation."
❌ On the other side, many targets continue to decline: $FIL, $WLD, older second-tier public chains, fading old MEME coins, with no rebound support and continuous fund outflow.
Not all altcoins are rising; only the small-cap coins with explosive gains attract attention, while declining coins are ignored.
Biggest misconception:
Don't label all small coins as air coins just because they rise.
But it must be recognized: the most fiercely short-term surging targets are mostly MEME small-cap coins, which generate no cash flow and rely entirely on new buyers taking over.
3. How to quickly avoid risks and distinguish
Pure air scam coin features:
Only Twitter marketing, no official website or documentation, no open source, very shallow liquidity pools, listed on unknown small exchanges, and after pumping, they crash without warning.
MEME coin features:
Openly admit no application value, rely on internet memes and community, suitable for short-term quick in and out, absolutely not for long-term holding.
Altcoins with fundamentals:
Continuous technical updates, active on-chain transfers/contracts, long-term narrative in the sector (public chains, DeFi), price follows industry cycles.
4. Practical advice
Current localized speculation ≠ a full altcoin season. Many rallies are just short-term fund rotations, with very fast hotspot shifts, chasing highs can easily get trapped the same day.
Even if not air coins, the smaller the market cap, the higher the control degree; when falling, liquidity dries up, making it hard to stop loss and exit.
Don't blindly follow just because of "short-term big gains." Distinguish whether it's a sector fundamental recovery or just manipulator sentiment pumping.
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $SPCX short squeeze is happening, stop shorting, the main force is crushing the shorts
The first large batch of restricted shares after SpaceX's IPO officially became eligible for trading today.
About 911.5 million shares are unlocked, equivalent to about 140% of the previously publicly tradable shares. After unlocking, SpaceX's freely tradable shares increase from about 640 million to 1.55 billion, and the public float ratio rises from 4.9% to 11.9%.
But this is just the beginning. In the coming months, shares held by employees, insiders, and early investors will continue to be unlocked gradually.
If SpaceX's stock price stays above $175.5 for 5 out of 10 consecutive trading days before the earnings report, about 456 million shares will become eligible for sale early. Subsequently, on August 20, September 9, and September 10, approximately 319 million, 319 million, and 59 million shares will be unlocked respectively.
By December this year, the market may see about 40% of the total shares become tradable, while the remaining approximately 60% (including Musk's holdings) is expected to remain locked until mid-2027.
Although SpaceX's IPO is one of the largest in U.S. history, raising about $85.7 billion, less than 5% of shares were released at the initial listing, resulting in a very small market float.
For a highly valued company, the focus in the coming months is not only on performance but also on whether the newly tradable shares can be absorbed by the market. 📊 $SUI Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, this wave of longs was brutally crushed by the short whales...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $38,400 $30,400 $8,031.56
4 hours $46,700 $36,900 $9,857.91
12 hours $129,800 $117,800 $12,000
24 hours $220,000 $203,300 $16,700
From the $SUI liquidation data, long liquidations overwhelmingly surpass shorts in 1-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and 24-hour periods. Long liquidations are 3.8x, 3.7x, 9.8x, and 12x those of shorts respectively, with the long liquidation wave hitting nuclear intensity across all timeframes. Long positions were comprehensively targeted and blasted, while shorts’ limited resistance was futile, with total liquidations exceeding $220,000. Longs are bleeding heavily; the long liquidation trend is unstoppable. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being repeatedly harvested.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | August 8
Today’s three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a "fully priced expectations, flaws are fatal" phase — "exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, and any signal of slowing growth will be magnified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Results, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year; Western Digital’s revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix’s Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 557% year-over-year.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% in after-hours trading. The culprit was guidance — next quarter’s revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market’s pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the results are" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real — as of end-July, AI storage leaders have averaged about 40% drawdowns; in July, SK Hynix’s Korean shares saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can’t Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016 — three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July’s ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component surged to 70.3, the highest in four months — the classic stagflation signal of "weak employment, strong prices." The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Lockup Expiry: A Classic Case of Bad News Being Good News
On August 6, SpaceX’s first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing about $100 billion in market value. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already priced in the lockup pressure; new sell orders were effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. However, the alert is not over — another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX’s counter-trend rise on lockup day played out the classic "bad news is good news" scenario. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance is magnified infinitely — old logics are collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Fundamental Research Report $NOT / Notcoin (TeleFi/Memecoin) $0.00 (24h -1.93%)
Summary: Notcoin ($NOT) has a composite score of 18/100, with a rating mainly relying on narrative. Breaking it down into three layers: the company team has limited resources, protocol network usage evidence is weak, and token value transmission still needs observation.
Fundamental Breakdown: Notcoin (token $NOT), in the TeleFi/Memecoin sector. Leading TON Tap-to-Earn project. Competitors include DOGS and CATIZEN. Traditional centralized platforms charge 15-40% commission, with no user data ownership. On-chain trustless transactions have lower fees, and token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average customer spend is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: main evidence comes from announcements, no verifiable usage yet. Latest version not found, zero valid commits in the past 90 days.
User metrics: MAU and DAU not disclosed, 24h trading volume $2.97M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees undisclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income undisclosed, token holder buyback and burn annualized has no burn mechanism. 24h trading volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: zero valid commits in 90 days, active contributors not found, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term VC holdings, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investments.
Token side: total supply 102,452,755,868.5205, circulating 99,429,447,866.9074 (97.0%), FDV $35.59M, next unlock undisclosed (percentage of circulating undisclosed), no clear annualized buyback and burn. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, medium value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Notcoin $34.54M, DOGS undisclosed, CATIZEN undisclosed. FDV: Notcoin $35.59M, DOGS undisclosed, CATIZEN undisclosed. Annual revenue: Notcoin undisclosed, DOGS undisclosed, CATIZEN undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Notcoin undisclosed, DOGS undisclosed, CATIZEN undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $34.54M, FDV $35.59M, P/S N/A (revenue missing, valuation anchor invalid), FDV divided by revenue N/A. Pessimistic view: $34.54M at 50-70% discount, neutral range oscillation, optimistic view: revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients join, FDV P/S aligns with leaders. Final qualitative assessment: insufficient evidence, narrative-driven (score 18/100). Token value transmission path unclear, only governance incentives. Circulating market cap relatively reasonable or low compared to fundamentals, FDV close to market cap, no major unlocks, sell pressure controllable. Main risks: short-term large unlock dumps, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relies solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Follow-up tracking: protocol fee weekly, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Derived from public data, not investment advice. Core indicator changes over 30% invalidate conclusions.
This concludes this research report. If you find it useful, please follow.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit Looking at the daily chart for HYPE/USDT, the price is currently sitting around $HYPE 56.24.
After falling from its recent high near $HYPE 69.38 down to a bottom of $HYPE 51.15, HYPE has started to turn back up. The price is now trading above its 5-day moving average (MA5 at $55.70) and 10-day moving average (MA10 at $54.57), which shows early signs of recovery!
Past Price Highs & Lows (Context)
* All-Time Low: Around $3.20 - $3.80 (Late 2024 launch)
* All-Time High: $76.87 (Hit in mid-June 2026)
* Recent Low: $51.15 (August 2026 bottom)
Short-Term Prediction
* Bull Case: If HYPE can break past the 20-day moving average (MA20 at $56.69), the next target is $60.00, followed by a retest of $64.00 to $68.00.
* Bear Case: If it gets rejected at resistance, expect strong support near $54.00 - $51.00.
Best Prediction of All Time (Long-Term)
Hyperliquid continues to lead decentralized perpetual trading volume. Once this consolidation phase finishes and the next major market push begins, HYPE has a strong chance to break its previous $76.87 all-time high and target $100.00+ by late 2026 or early 2027 I've seen quite a few people say they lost money buying SpaceX. Before sharing, I want to clarify a few points. First, I'm not kicking someone when they're down. Second, I'm not judging based on profit or loss results, but rather looking at the logic behind the decision at the time.
First, the very first sentence in SpaceX's S1 prospectus is: "Our mission is to build systems and technologies that enable life to become multiplanetary... extending the beacon of consciousness to the stars."
Second, how much money does it actually cost to invest in this company? The answer is US$1.75-2 trillion. I don't know how you feel after hearing that, but when I looked at how the investment bank calculated it, it was based on estimating the potential market (TAM) at as high as US$28.5 trillion and then working backward. Do you realize that this TAM figure is almost as large as the entire US GDP? SpaceX's AI business includes data centers and the Grok model, with Q1 revenue only US$818 million, but it is operating at a loss.
Third, Elon Musk unprecedentedly reserved 30% of the issuance for retail investors, a rare move in IPOs. This makes one suspect it could become a retail cult stock with a wave of market hype. The problem is I chose not to make money from this because I really don't understand it. But not understanding and not trying to profit is against human nature. People are greedy, just like betting on overseas horse races.
I have never participated in SpaceX.
SpaceX performance: revenue $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, EPS loss of 9 cents, much better than the expected 24 cents loss. On the surface, okay. But capex surged to $18.4 billion, compared to only $10.1 billion last quarter, and Musk said he will continue to increase it. The AI department's burn rate is clearly beyond expectations. If Q2 revenue is annualized, it would be $31.2 billion, with a market cap of $1.6 trillion, a price-to-sales ratio of 54 times. Would you say that's expensive?
Quoting Michael Burry, the protagonist of The Big Short, on SpaceX's analysis, I think it's very apt.
The core question is, what exactly is this company's positioning?
1. A hard-tech leader with monopoly characteristics in aerospace and satellite fields?
2. A lagging follower in the AI race far behind Anthropic and OpenAI?
3. Or a strange hybrid of both?The market has once again confirmed the harsh cost of adding positions against the trend. Previously, a whale trader who established a short position of 1,600 BTC at a high level has today proactively reduced their position by 500 BTC (approximately $32.58 million) to mitigate the approaching liquidation risk. As a result, the account's cumulative unrealized loss has expanded to over $1.5 million, with the remaining short position at about 900 BTC, currently valued at approximately $58.6 million. With this reduction executed, the liquidation price has simultaneously risen to $64,998.73 — a price that closely aligns with yesterday's rally to a new stage high of $65,188, indicating that this short position is now in a precarious "dancing on the edge" situation.
---
Key details breakdown:
· Motivation for reducing position: It is not a voluntary loss-taking but a passive defense. When the price broke through the previous high and stabilized above $65,000, the original position's liquidation price was lower (estimated between $63,000-$64,000). Without reducing the position, if the market continues to rise, it would directly trigger forced liquidation. After reducing 500 BTC, the average entry price of the remaining position was raised, and the liquidation price rose to about $65,000, but it remains very close to the current price.
· Market background: Last night's violent surge confirmed a four-hour level bullish trend, with Bollinger Bands opening upwards. Although short-term pullbacks are expected, the overall structure is strong. The short position's choice to reduce at this point precisely indicates that the main funds do not expect a deep correction, forcing shorts to shrink their positions.
· Potential risks: With the remaining 900 BTC short, if the price breaks above $65,000 again and accelerates to the $65,500-$66,000 range, the account will face pressure to reduce positions again or even forced liquidation, which could trigger a chain short squeeze, ironically fueling short-term gains — a classic "short squeeze spiral."
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Trading experience reflections (worth recording):
1. Direction is more important than entry price: In a clear long-term bullish trend, any counter-trend short is like catching a flying knife. Even if the entry price seems ideal, trend momentum can wipe out all floating profits.
2. Position management determines survival: An initial heavy short of 1,600 BTC leaves no room for maneuver if the direction is wrong. Controlling the position to 300-500 BTC would have allowed room to shift or hedge after yesterday's rally, avoiding forced reductions.
3. Liquidation price is the lifeline: Professional traders always place liquidation prices outside extreme volatility ranges (e.g., 10% above the upper Bollinger Band), not close to previous highs. This account's liquidation price at only $64,998 is equivalent to handing over the stop loss to the market, losing control.
4. Following the trend is not just a slogan: After the non-farm payroll data, risk assets collectively rose, with gold, US stocks, and crypto resonating. Holding shorts at this time means fighting multiple macro tailwinds, with a naturally low success rate.
---
Outlook observation point: Whether this short will continue to reduce the remaining 900 BTC will become a key sentiment indicator in the short-term long-short battle. If the price finds support in the $64,500-$64,800 range and rallies again, the short's psychological defense will collapse completely, and accelerated upside may come early; conversely, if Bitcoin actively retests below $64,000, it may give the short some breathing room, but the overall direction is hard to reverse.
Remember: The market never lacks opportunities; it lacks respect for risk. This trader, at a cost of $1.5 million, has once again proven to everyone that — in front of the trend, position size is just a number; survival is the hard truth. Every time you open a position, ask yourself: if the trend goes completely against me, how long can I hold? The answer determines whether you are a "hunter" or "prey." #TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heardThe most noteworthy update today is the fund flow changes in the US spot ETH ETF.
On August 4th, the net inflow was $53.1 million, $60.8 million on the 5th, and it increased again to $92.1 million on the 6th, totaling about $206 million over three consecutive days.
What’s even more notable is that yesterday $81.1 million flowed into BlackRock’s ETHA. Money is indeed coming in, but the buying is highly concentrated, so it’s too early to say that all funds have reached a consensus; it looks more like large investors have first chosen a single entry point.
Therefore, it’s a bit premature to call a reversal now. Next, I will watch two signals: whether the net inflow can continue, and whether ETH/BTC can strengthen simultaneously.
One day’s data can be driven by sentiment, but continuous data better reveals the real situation. Even after several years of surges, gold prices have only stabilized around $2,500 now. UBS has directly declared its expectation of doubling and set the timeline for the first half of 2027—this is far from just empty talk. At least two signals are being sent: first, their assessment of the macro environment for the next year and a half is very pessimistic, or rather, very certain. For gold to rise to 5000, relying solely on retail investors to buy gold jewelry is impossible. It must be that global central banks continue to make massive purchases, and institutional funds treat gold as a "ballast stone." This often means that within UBS, there is a belief that the dollar credit system will continue to loosen, the appeal of U.S. Treasuries is declining, and geopolitical frictions may not be resolved in the short term. They bet on the continuation of the "chaotic era." $XAU Second, market sentiment is shifting from "safe haven" to "faith." In the past, people bought gold to hedge against inflation or risk, but the $5,000 target already contains a significant speculative premium. Once this expectation is formed, more capital will flow in early, possibly sprinting ahead of schedule by the end of 2026. But conversely, if the price really reaches this level in the first half of 2027, the exit signal could be stronger than the signal to chase the rally. For ordinary people like us, the significance of this news isn't about "buying," but about "reminding" that if your asset allocation isn't related to gold at all, then in this global central bank "buy, buy, buy" cycle, it's really worth re-examining. But don't be blinded by the 5000 figure—UBS itself says it's an 'estimate.'Whales quietly bought $120 million worth of BTC this week
I was a bit surprised when the data came out. According to Santiment's statistics, large wallets holding between ten and ten thousand coins have accumulated over 20,000 BTC since the end of July, which is roughly $1.2 billion at the current price. More importantly, ETFs also absorbed over $700 million in the same week, with $2.4 million coming in on Wednesday alone. I used to think whales and institutions were working against each other, but this time both are buying together, which is quite rare. However, the price hasn't risen yet, indicating that the chips are transferring into strong hands, and the market hasn't matured yet. Do you think this is a bottom or a continuation? Let's discuss in the comments.$SNDK's recent sharp drop is a typical case of "high expectations meeting guidance that isn't explosive enough + profit-taking after a huge prior rally," rather than a sudden deterioration in fundamentals. The company's performance and AI-related demand remain strong, with long-term contracts and buybacks providing support, but the market has shifted from a "pure growth story" to a more rigorous scrutiny of growth sustainability and whether high gross margins can be maintained long-term (especially when shifting from training to inference scenarios).
Short-term volatility will continue to be high (high beta stock). Key observation points include the upcoming analyst day (around August 13), actual order execution, and the overall sentiment in the storage/AI hardware sector. If long-term contracts are fulfilled and demand sustainability is confirmed, support may be regained after the pullback; if subsequent guidance or peers continue to fall short of expectations, further valuation adjustments may occur.
The above is based on public financial reports and news and does not constitute investment advice. Stock price volatility is significant, and judgments should be made in accordance with one's own risk tolerance. 🚨 The non-farm payroll data has been released — July saw a decrease of 23,000 jobs, while the market had originally expected an increase of 85,000. This is a directional deviation, and the market will be forced to reprice.
This is not a mild slowdown but a clear negative growth. The market had not fully priced in this level of employment contraction, and the current asset price structure will face correction pressure.
📉 USD: Under short-term pressure, rate cut expectations are being repriced
🟡 Gold: Benefiting from expectations of declining real interest rates, showing relative strength
🚀 BTC and crypto assets: Directionally bullish, but liquidity flow into risk assets needs confirmation
The obvious slowdown in the labor market increases expectations that the Fed will shift to easing earlier, providing macro-level support for risk assets.
⚠️ But one premise needs to be confirmed in advance:
If the market starts trading on "recession" rather than "rate cuts," then short-term volatility may initially manifest as risk aversion rather than directly driving risk assets higher. Therefore, I will not chase the first candlestick.
📌 Strategy:
Wait for $BTC to confirm the first direction after the data release before deciding whether to participate. The market often offers a second entry opportunity.
I don't need to prove myself right in the first wave; I just need to act after confirming the direction.
Be patient and let the market reveal the true structure first.
$BTC $ETH
#星球日报 SK Hynix dropped a bombshell, planning to invest $38.4 billion in South Korea to expand its chip business. This is no small sum; given the current ups and downs in the semiconductor cycle, it appears particularly aggressive. Where exactly is the money spent? The main targets are two areas: one is the M17 factory in Cheongju, with an investment of 19.1 trillion KRW and a construction schedule scheduled until 2031. The other is the Yongin semiconductor cluster, with the second phase of chip factory construction investing 35.2 trillion KRW. It can be said that this is putting all its heavy investment in domestic production capacity for the coming years. $SKHYNIX What's interesting is SK Hynix's official statement. They specifically emphasized that the expansion plan will be "flexibly aligned" with customer demand and firmly believe that medium- and long-term investments will not immediately lead to oversupply. This sounds like a reassuring reassurance to the market, since no matter how strong the demand for AI chips is, people are afraid that a wave of expansion will drive prices down. To put it simply: we know what you're worried about, but we know what we're doing—production capacity will follow real orders. Behind this round of investment is actually SK Hynix's continued positioning in the AI era. It is no longer just a simple storage chip manufacturer, but an indispensable "memory partner" for NVIDIA AI servers. In this geopolitically sensitive and rapidly iterating industry, such a large-scale local investment is both a business bet and a signal to the outside world: we are not only Korea's semiconductor pillar but also an "asset" that cannot be removed from the global AI industry chain. Of course, $38.4 billion is no small amount; it tests long-term financial resilience and perseverance📊 $CL Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, longs and shorts are repeatedly slaughtering each other, with the "dog trader" harvesting back and forth...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $43,800 $3,489.32 $40,300
4 hours $98,500 $42,800 $55,800
12 hours $272,200 $150,400 $121,700
24 hours $913,300 $214,400 $698,900
From the $CL liquidation data, short liquidations in the 1-hour and 4-hour periods overwhelmingly surpass longs, with short liquidations 11.5 times and 1.3 times that of longs respectively, indicating a short squeeze dominating the short term; the 12-hour direction reverses, with long liquidations surpassing shorts by about 1.24 times, signaling a long squeeze; the 24-hour direction reverses again, with short liquidations crushing longs at 3.26 times, showing the short squeeze returning in the long term. The "dog trader" on CL has completed a triple slaughter of short squeeze → long kill → short squeeze again, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $913,000, an extremely chaotic rhythm where chasing either side results in losses. Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Weather Vane | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "expectations maxed out, flaws punished" — "exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Better the Performance, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747 billion. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-over-year increase of 557%.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance — next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the performance is" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992 billion by 2026, nearly doubling to $1.76 trillion in 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real — as of the end of July, AI storage leaders have averaged a drawdown of about 40%; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock had a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, so any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016 — three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months — a classic stagflation signal of "weak employment, strong prices." The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: A Classic Script of Bad News Being Good News
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% plunge after earnings on Wednesday had already released unlocking pressure in advance; new selling was effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic script of "bad news fully priced is good news." However, the alert is not over — another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth was met with a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX's counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news fully priced" script. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified — old logics are collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $SNDK earnings report is positive, non-farm payroll data released is positive, so why does the market keep falling??
Tonight after the US stock market opened, the AI storage sector's three companies all showed exactly the same downward trend, although after the 20:30 non-farm payroll data release, all three saw a significant rebound.
But after the US market opened, it quickly fell back and continued the downtrend. Fan Ge wants to say that the AI storage sector, like SPCX, has already priced AI expectations to the sky. Strong earnings are expected, but if guidance is slightly weak, the market falls. $MU
Many institutional funds chose to cash out early after the data release, on-chain funds continue large outflows, and the market is still in panic selling. The selling pressure above still firmly suppresses the price. $SKHY
The market has fully digested the positive non-farm payroll data. From a long-term perspective, Fan Ge remains bearish. I believe brothers who read my noon post have already had enough to digest. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT.
The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected.
That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs.
Here’s how I’m reading it 👇
📉 USD: Bearish
🟡 Gold: Bullish
🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish
A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets.
But there’s a catch. ⚠️
A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly.
So I’m not chasing the first move.
I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions.
The market will react fast.
I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity.
Stay patient.
Let the market reveal its hand. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit If you want to see whether SpaceX is worth its current price, just look back at Tesla.
Tesla has been successful enough, right? They got electric cars going, built factories worldwide, sales even exploded, yet the stock price still got cut in half when it should have.
So whether a company is great or not is really a different matter from whether buying its stock makes you money.
SpaceX is the same.
Starship succeeds, Starlink users surge, even if they really go to Mars in the future, it doesn’t mean the stock price will keep soaring.
The biggest fear is: the company is indeed great, but the market has already priced in all the greatness for the next ten years.
So when I look at SpaceX now, I don’t just look at whether the rocket can fly, but also this:
Whether the company is worth money and whether the current price is expensive are two different things.
I believe Musk can change the world, but if you bought in too high, even he can’t save your account. $TSLA $SPCX Ethereum's Token Standards: The Foundation of Web3
One of $ETH 's most impactful innovations is its token standards, giving developers a universal framework for building digital assets.
ERC-20 revolutionized blockchain by making it simple to create fungible tokens, fueling thousands of cryptocurrencies and powering the explosive growth of DeFi.
Then came ERC-721, which introduced NFTs—unique, verifiable digital assets that transformed digital art, collectibles, gaming, and online ownership.
Ethereum later expanded the ecosystem with ERC-1155, a more efficient standard that supports both fungible and non-fungible tokens within a single smart contract, reducing costs and improving scalability for games and digital marketplaces.
Together, these standards have become the backbone of countless blockchain applications, cementing Ethereum's position as one of the most influential platforms in the evolution of Web3.
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs 🚀 The real logic behind SpaceX's rebound this time
This rise is very interesting: on the day of the 100 billion unlock, instead of falling, it rose sharply by 6.14%, representing a scenario of bad news being absorbed + short covering
1. The day before, the market panicked over AI's massive capital expenditure, causing a single-day plunge of 14%, which preemptively digested selling pressure
2. On August 6, the first batch of 100 billion restricted shares were unlocked, but the selling pressure was far below market expectations, with a large number of shorts covering to push the price up
3. Institutions raised target prices, optimistic about the two long-term storylines of "Starlink communication + space AI computing power," with Morgan Stanley giving a target price of $300 for next year Seeing this non-farm payroll data, many people have probably started to expect a return to rate cut expectations, but I believe this optimism still carries risks.
1. The data itself only suppresses expectations of rate hikes and high interest rates. Employment is on the edge of a deceleration risk, but this data alone cannot fully reverse the 100% return of rate cut expectations, because there is Walsh.
2. Walsh is the biggest policy uncertainty. Just like in July's CPI when he expressed distrust, does he recognize and trust this employment data?
In the Walsh era, I believe he intends to overturn the current policy's reliance on existing data and establish new data rules—the working group data. If this is the goal, then Walsh is very likely to try to weaken the impact of this data on interest rate expectations.
3. After the data release, various experts began to "debate." One debate I worry about most is that the World Cup hiring surge caused abnormal data, with fewer jobs offered in leisure, hotel, and catering industries. If Walsh also agrees with this view, he can completely use the World Cup, AI short-term shocks, and other factors to weaken employment risk and prevent the market from trading on rate cuts.
4. Will Walsh raise rates? I don't think so. He will cut rates, but his rate cuts will be based on data released by the working group in the coming months, making the market look only at new data for rate adjustment expectations rather than current data. This is a very dangerous move, and Walsh has deep political motives.
In summary, I think this employment data makes the market's return to the rate cut path and trend too risky. The risk optimism and rebound brought today are actually a rebound shorting and pullback opportunity, as there is still a lot of uncertainty! #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ $SNDK Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly plunged, which should have been positive for high-valuation tech, yet storage stocks opened high and then plunged. This abnormal movement is more worth watching than the data itself.
U.S. July nonfarm employment decreased by 23,000, with an expected increase of 80,000, and May and June were collectively revised down by 103,000. After the data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell and stock indexes opened higher, indicating the market initially priced in a cooling of rate hike expectations.
But the storage sector quickly turned negative.
$STX is currently down 10.5%, $SKHY down 6.6%, $WDC down 5.9%, $SNDK down 5%, $MU down 3.5%.
My judgment is that nonfarm payrolls only sparked the move; the real fuel remains the high expectations and crowded positions in storage stocks.
Despite falling interest rates and a rising Nasdaq, storage stocks are falling against the trend, indicating that capital worries extend beyond just discount rates to how long high profits and valuations can be sustained. Previously, the market treated HBM, DRAM, NAND, and HDD as one "AI storage supercycle" trade; now, with macro growth risks, capital is reducing positions across the board.
The fundamentals of different companies have not deteriorated overnight. $MU and $SKHY trade HBM and DRAM, $SNDK trades NAND and enterprise SSDs, $STX and $WDC focus on near-line HDD. Their synchronized decline looks more like valuation recalculation combined with deleveraging, and does not directly prove a reversal in AI storage demand.
But short-term signals are indeed weak. Even falling rates and rising indexes can’t lift the sector, indicating heavy selling pressure above. Next, we need to watch if storage price increases continue to slow, if gross margins decline consecutively, and whether cloud vendor orders and deliveries are cut.
Before these fundamental signals appear, it’s premature to call the cycle topped; but before storage stocks outperform the broader market again, every rebound looks more like chip repair than a trend reversal.
In contrast, Elon Musk’s rocket surged 10 points! $BTC $ETH #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT.
The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected.
That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs.
Here’s how I’m reading it 👇
📉 USD: Bearish
🟡 Gold: Bullish
🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish
A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets.
But there’s a catch. ⚠️
A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly.
So I’m not chasing the first move.
I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions.
The market will react fast.
I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity.
Stay patient.
Let the market reveal its hand. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit SpaceX performed well today, showing signs of another push towards 130, and it might even test the IPO price of 135 soon.
Overall, the selling pressure after unlocking is still not significant, which is related to Elon Musk's faith, the continuous release of positive news, and Argus upgrading SPCX from "Hold" to "Buy".
If you just treat SPCX as a MEME managed by Elon Musk, many things become easier to understand: unlocking doesn't necessarily lead to a drop; on the contrary, it can trigger a short squeeze. After bottoming out, a big rebound happens, and the faster it rises, the more money and effort are saved, with sellers reluctant to sell, reducing pressure. However, the SEC still exerts regulatory pressure, and if it could do market making like altcoins, its performance might be even stronger than now. $SPCX #📊 $SPCX Contract Liquidation Express (August 8)
According to liquidation data, this wave of shorts was brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $2.5175M $359.9K $2.1577M
4 hours $2.9801M $793.2K $2.1869M
12 hours $3.5856M $861.4K $2.7241M
24 hours $6.6466M $1.8421M $4.8046M
From the $SPCX liquidation data, short liquidations in 1 hour crushed longs by 6 times, with a fierce short squeeze blitz at the start; the 4-hour short advantage continued at about 2.76 times, with a full short squeeze outbreak; shorts still led by a wide margin at 12 hours, about 3.16 times, with the squeeze spanning short to mid cycles; 24-hour short liquidations surged to $4.8M, 2.6 times the longs. The dog whales completed a full-cycle slaughter of shorts on SPCX—short, mid, and long cycle shorts were all targeted and blasted, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $6.64M. Shorts bled heavily, and the short squeeze momentum is unstoppable. Everyone, manage your positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | August 8
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a "fully priced expectations, flaws are fatal" stage—"exceeding expectations" is just the baseline, and any signal of slowing growth will be magnified.
💾 Storage Stocks Drop After Earnings: The Bigger the Boom, the Harder the Fall
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" earnings report: Q4 revenue $8.965B, up 372% YoY; Western Digital's revenue for the same period was $3.747B. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, up 557% YoY.
However, SanDisk plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit was guidance—next quarter's revenue midpoint at $10.55B, below the market expectation of $10.82B. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "how good the performance is" to "whether the growth rate is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? UBS predicts total storage industry revenue will reach $992B by 2026 and nearly double to $1.76T by 2027, with HBM as the core driver. But short-term pullbacks are also real—as of the end of July, AI storage leaders averaged about 40% drawdown; in July, SK Hynix's Korean stock had a max drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in one month. The long-term logic of the super cycle remains intact, but valuations have run ahead of fundamentals, and any flaw will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed Hawkish Signals Heat Up: Weak Employment Can't Suppress Inflation Anxiety
The July FOMC meeting saw the first three dissenting votes aligned since 2016—three regional Fed presidents advocated a 25 basis point rate hike. Voter Kashkari even said three hikes this year "are not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? July ADP new jobs were only 44,000, the weakest since January. But wage growth stayed high at 4.4%, and the ISM services PMI price component soared to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" formed a classic stagflation signal. The market still prices a 54.9% chance of a rate hike in September.
🚀 SpaceX Rises After Unlock: Classic "Bad News is Good News" Scenario
On August 6, SpaceX's first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, potentially releasing about $100B in market value. The market had widely expected a sell-off.
Instead, the stock rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The 13.6% post-earnings plunge on Wednesday had already priced in the unlocking pressure; new sell orders were effectively absorbed by bargain hunters and short covering. The market played out the classic "bad news is good news" script. But the alert is not over—another 319 million shares may unlock on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth ended in a plunge, proving storage stock valuations have run ahead of fundamentals; the Fed is caught between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX's counter-trend rise on unlock day played out the classic "bad news is good news" scenario. When beating expectations becomes standard, every deviation in guidance will be infinitely magnified—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ 🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT.
The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected.
That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs.
Here’s how I’m reading it 👇
📉 USD: Bearish
🟡 Gold: Bullish
🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish
A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets.
But there’s a catch. ⚠️
A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly.
So I’m not chasing the first move.
I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions.
The market will react fast.
I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity.
Stay patient.
Let the market reveal its hand. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit 北京时间8月7日晚8点30分，美国劳工统计局公布了7月非农就业报告。这是一份让市场大跌眼镜的数据。 美国7月季调后非农就业人口减少2.3万人，为2月以来首次出现下降，市场预期为增加8万人。 此前5月和6月的数据也遭到大幅下修，合计下修10.3万人。 失业率虽然从4.2%降至4.1%，但劳动参与率从61.5%进一步回落至61.4%，为五年多来最低水平。分析人士指出，失业率的下降伴随着劳动参与率的持续回落，意味着更多人退出了劳动力大军，而非就业改善。 这是一份典型的“坏消息就是好消息”的数据。 数据发布后，美国利率期货市场对美联储9月加息的预期概率明显下降，交易员下调了对2026年加息的押注。联邦基金隔夜指数互换显示，预计到12月加息幅度仅为28个基点，低于数据公布前的32个基点。10年期美债收益率下跌4.29个基点报4.627%，美元指数短线走低，美股期指全线走高。现货黄金日内涨3%报4368美元，现货白银涨超5%。BTC从数据公布前的64400美元附近快速拉升，突破65000美元关口，涨至65400美元，24小时涨幅约1.3%。 非农数据是美联储7月议息会议“按兵不动”后发布的首份完整Citibank just set a $SNDk price target of $2100, on what basis?
Citibank just returned from SanDisk's Silicon Valley headquarters—meeting with the CEO, CFO, and IR team. Combining insights from FMS 2026 and the recently released June quarterly earnings report, they produced an in-depth report. Today, US Stock Investment Network breaks down the core content of this report for you.
First key point: Management is extremely optimistic
Citibank described management's attitude as "very bullish" and "increasingly constructive"—terms not casually used in investment bank research reports.
The reason for optimism is simple: AI inference is driving structural growth in data center storage demand, and this is not a short cycle but a long-term trend.
Citibank expects the total addressable market (TAM) related to NAND to grow from about $300 billion in 2026 to about $500 billion in 2027. An incremental $200 billion in one year.
Citibank believes that current global NAND demand has fully exceeded supply, and the supply-demand imbalance may continue beyond 2027. Rapid growth in AI data center demand, combined with relatively conservative global storage industry capital expenditure, means high-end capacity is prioritized for AI-related products.
Citibank maintains an estimate of about 20% growth in global NAND bit supply in 2026.
In short: this is not cyclical, it is structural.
Second key point: The business model is undergoing fundamental change
What SanDisk is doing may be more important than many realize—shifting from "weather-dependent" to "contract-dependent."
The core lever is called NBM (New Business Model), which essentially means long-term supply agreements.
Management expects NBM to cover over 50% of shipments in fiscal 2027 and reach two-thirds in fiscal 2028, with an average contract term of 4 years.
Citibank's report also revealed a detail: NAND suppliers have locked in a significant proportion of future capacity through long-term agreements. SanDisk reportedly has locked in 60-70% of supply for 2027, while peers are around 50%.
What are the direct results?
First, structurally high gross margins. Even at bottom price levels, NBM contracts can still achieve about 80% gross margin. By comparison, SanDisk's gross margin was only 30.3% in FY25, rising to 69.2% in FY26e, and surging to 86.7% in FY27e. From 30% to 80%, this is not optimization, it is a qualitative change. Actual data confirms this—the latest quarter's non-GAAP gross margin has already hit 84.6%.
Second, significantly improved earnings visibility and cash flow predictability. Last quarter's free cash flow (FCF) margin reached 56%. After making money, they directly repurchased $4.5 billion in stock, with $14.5 billion remaining in buyback capacity.
Citibank gave a very direct evaluation: "These long-term agreements should allow SanDisk to enjoy a higher valuation premium than peers."
Third key point: Citibank's view on valuation
Citibank maintains a buy rating with a $2100 price target—based on a 9x CY27E EPS valuation.
A background note: On June 25, about a month and a half ago, Citibank raised the price target from $2025 to $2500. This downgrade is not due to a change in bearish logic but because Q4 guidance was slightly below expectations—Citibank still maintains a buy rating in the report.
Citibank also specifically mentioned that SanDisk has about $15 to $20 billion of invested capital (replacement cost) in joint ventures, which is not reflected in the financial statements.
Citibank clearly pointed out three risks:
Chinese manufacturers aggressively capturing market share could trigger a price war, causing the currently underutilized industry capacity to quickly shift to oversupply;
Deterioration in the macro environment could drag down enterprise SSD and AI-PC upgrade demand;
Supply-demand imbalance or price competition could cause severe price volatility, seriously impacting profit margins.
Citibank also specifically noted: "Currently underutilized industry capacity can quickly reverse to oversupply in a very short time, causing the ideal conditions for price increases to vanish instantly."
This statement is important—Citibank is optimistic about the long-term trend but remains clear-eyed about short-term supply-demand battles.
Short-term catalyst: August 13 Investor Day
SanDisk will hold an Investor Day on August 13 (Thursday) at 9 AM ET, expected to update the technology roadmap, customer adoption trends, demand drivers, and target operating model.
This may be the most important catalyst in the near term.
US Stock Investment Network analysis believes what SanDisk is doing essentially smooths out the storage industry's cyclicality with long-term contracts.
What was the biggest problem for storage chip companies in the past? Cyclicality. They made huge profits when prices rose and suffered heavy losses when prices fell. Investors were reluctant to give high valuations because they didn't know when the next cycle would come.
But if 80% gross margin is locked in by 4-year long-term contracts, the company's valuation logic completely changes—from a "cyclical stock" to a "cash flow machine."
Citibank gives a 9x PE, while peers only have 6-8x; the core of the premium lies here.
Of course, risks are real. Chinese manufacturers' capacity could bring prices down anytime, and the macroeconomic clouds have not cleared. But if you believe AI inference demand for storage is structural and long-term, what SanDisk is doing is worth your serious attention. Brothers, tonight's data is chilling to the bone.
Nonfarm payrolls directly turned negative, with July losing 23,000 jobs, while the market had previously expected an increase of 80,000. This contrast is huge; labor demand is truly declining. The private sector only added 30,000 jobs, versus an expected 78,000 and a previous 49,000. The foundation of the entire employment market is weaker than everyone thought.
But strangely, the unemployment rate actually dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Jobs decreased, yet unemployment fell—these two data points directly conflict. More subtle is the wage data: average hourly earnings in July rose by just 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, indicating wage growth is also slowing.
Honestly, data is data, and the market is the market. Observing recently, the market’s reactions to bad and good news are completely different. When bad news hits, the price plunges sharply without hesitation. When good news comes out? It creeps up slowly, like squeezing toothpaste—price gains are reluctant and unsatisfying. This clearly shows the market is jittery, like a startled bird; it runs at the slightest disturbance but hesitates when given a treat.
In this environment, chasing highs is the biggest loss. The initial surge on good news looks tempting but likely won’t hold; if you chase it, it will just crash back. Conversely, when bad news creates a dip, the real test is whether you dare to buy the dip. I’m sticking to my old strategy: keep my position light and don’t rush in. Waiting for the market to find its own footing is better than anything.
With this data out, the market has to reassess the Fed’s next move. Poor employment would normally strengthen the case for rate cuts. The Fed’s current policy rate is 3.75%, and this data will definitely push discussions toward “supporting growth.” But with unemployment still at 4.1%, looking at just one month’s data, the Fed is unlikely to pivot immediately.
From the market perspective, this kind of contradictory data is the hardest to navigate. On one hand, negative employment numbers push for rate cuts; on the other, the stable unemployment rate gives hawks some room. I’ve repeatedly said not to heavily bet on data because of this kind of conflicting scenario. Getting the direction right is only the first step; timing is critical—even a minute off can be costly, especially with data that contradicts itself. The best move now is to stay put and watch, waiting for the market to fully digest the information.
💬 Interaction
Bad news hits hard, good news can’t push prices up—are you still trading in this market? Comment below whether you’re sitting on the sidelines or jumping in to play. $BTC $ETH #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ A few casual macro thoughts tonight: This round of employment data is like fighting with itself
According to the old textbook routine, private sector hiring collapses → no reason to continue raising rates → money gets cheaper → non-yielding gold should take off.
July ADP indeed only gave 44,000, the worst so far this year, and gold also performed well, touching 4300 intraday (the first time since mid-June), but it didn’t hold, and was pushed back to hover around 4250.
Can 4300 be turned into a floor and then surge higher? Honestly, it all depends on the nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 PM tonight.
But look at the initial jobless claims on the same day: 199,000, stuck below 200,000 for three consecutive weeks, the lowest since September 2022.
On one hand, ADP screams "people are collapsing," on the other, initial claims say "jobs are still stable." The market is split in two—left side hears small businesses crying, right side sees big companies not laying off.
Goldman Sachs and Barclays don’t bother arguing; they just point out: ADP tends to be skewed by small company samples and isn’t accurate for predicting nonfarm payrolls; low initial claims are the real signal, indicating companies "don’t want to hire but can’t bear to fire," which is the so-called "low hiring, low firing" slow-motion employment everyone talks about now.
The Federal Reserve itself hasn’t unified its message.
Cook: "If inflation doesn’t come down, I’ll act";
Schmidt: "Current rates aren’t tight enough, should raise";
Baysent: "No need to raise at this stage."
Three people, three scripts. CME shows a 55% chance of a rate hike in September, with half the table betting on a hike and half playing dead.
The asset reaction is especially interesting—
SanDisk (SNDK) fears rate tail swings the most.
Revenue 8.97 billion, year-over-year surge of 372%, gross margin 84.6%, casually approved a 14 billion buyback, this report card would have hit the daily limit last year. Result: -7% after hours.
Why? The market isn’t looking at past performance; it’s focused on tomorrow’s discount rate. If future rates tighten, high-valuation growth stocks fall first, no matter how good past results were.
Gold (XAU) logic is the smoothest.
Soft ADP → rate hike probability drops → dollar weakens → gold attracts money. The surge to 4300 was purely trading the expectation that "rates won’t be as hawkish."
It’s awkward for BTC.
Same macro script, gold surges violently, BTC lies flat like a dead fish at 64,000.
Not that ETFs aren’t buying—on August 6 alone, net inflow was $243 million, money is coming in. But the price doesn’t move.
More amusingly: Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days, U.S. institutions are quietly selling, Asian markets are buying. Fed internal divisions + expectations of rate cuts and rate hike risks tug BTC in the middle, grinding it like sandpaper.
Gold is trading rate expectations, BTC is waiting for its own fuse. It’s not that BTC ignores macro, but macro itself has no direction, so funds dare not bet one way.
Looking ahead, there are two nails:
Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls, next Thursday’s CPI.
Once these two numbers come out, whether to hike in September will basically be decided. If yes, risk assets collectively pull back; if no, gold lives on, and BTC finally dares to choose a direction.
Before nonfarm payrolls, don’t tie yourself to a direction, wait for the gunshot before moving.
$BTC $ETH A routine but noteworthy settlement day in the crypto market. According to Greeks.live data, Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts with a total nominal value exceeding $2.4 billion are expiring. The specific data is as follows: 32,000 Bitcoin options expire, with a put/call ratio as low as 0.26, and the maximum pain point at $64,000, with a nominal value of $2.06 billion. Ethereum options have 177,000 to expire, with a PCR ratio of 0.77, a maximum pain point of $1,900, and a nominal value of $340 million. Among these numbers, the most noteworthy is the PCR rate. Bitcoin's PCR is only 0.26, which is a very low level, indicating very little open interest in put options in the market, and traders have weak demand for options to hedge against declines. $BTC Looking at the price, Bitcoin has been hovering around $64,000 this week, having been fluctuating in this range for two months. Researcher Adam's view is that the global market's attention is currently not on cryptocurrencies, and speculative funds may not flow in significantly in the short term. From a technical perspective, the $65,000 level was a heavily traded area formed during the early rally and has now become resistance. In this situation of stock competition and lack of new capital inflow, if an effective breakthrough is delayed, the upward direction may be more likely to move downward. $ETH Back to the options data itself. Options expiring this week account for 9% of total holdings, which is not a low proportion. Most of these are out-of-the-money call options🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT.
The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected.
That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs.
Here’s how I’m reading it 👇
📉 USD: Bearish
🟡 Gold: Bullish
🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish
A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets.
But there’s a catch. ⚠️
A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly.
So I’m not chasing the first move.
I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions.
The market will react fast.
I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity.
Stay patient.
Let the market reveal its hand. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit July Nonfarm Payrolls Directly Shrink by 23,000: Are We Really About to Welcome a Rate Cut Frenzy?
The just-released U.S. July nonfarm payrolls directly shrank by 23,000, not only far below the previous market expectation of positive growth but even falling into negative territory. Meanwhile, historical data for May and June were also cut by 103,000. Facing this brutal employment report, major trading groups are already wildly celebrating the settled dust of a September rate cut.
But is this really a cause for universal celebration?
The answer might be quite the opposite. This could indicate that the previously market-believed "resilient employment and soft landing" was just a statistical illusion. Although rate cut expectations are indeed soaring, this also means the door to recession trades has been completely opened. When a labor market once claimed to be highly resilient shows a net job loss in just two months, it means the poison of high interest rates on the denominator side has already eroded the marrow of real businesses.
So, if employment is contracting, why did the unemployment rate slightly drop from 4.2% to 4.1%?
This is actually the most chilling part of the report. The slight drop in unemployment rate is not because the unemployed found jobs again, but because a large number of people, desperate to find work, directly exited the labor market and were mercilessly removed from the statistical denominator. This unemployment "improvement" squeezed out by a decline in labor force participation is an atypical feature of recession periods, not a self-repair of the employment market.
Then, as asset allocators, at this moment when liquidity logic is instantly reshaped, what should we do?
When the data came out tonight and I saw the negative 23,000 figure, I didn’t blindly follow the crowd to chase a rebound and go long; instead, I cleared part of my short U.S. Treasury positions and locked in yields. Because I understand that while rate cut expectations can bring short-term price pulses, the ensuing recessionary drain is the real ruthless killer.
Until it’s clear whether the Fed will be forced to urgently cut 50 basis points in September due to this disastrous report, any position overly exposed to risky growth assets could be instantly overturned in a second liquidity shock.
Here’s a question for you: If tonight U.S. Treasury yields plunge sharply due to rate cut expectations, but next week’s CPI inflation remains stubbornly high, do you think the market will choose to trade "rate cut rescue" or "stagflation poison"?
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 美股市场经常出现一种现象：盘前人人看多，正式开盘却快速下跌。 8月7日晚，闪迪SNDK就是最典型的案例。 很多投资者疑惑： - 财报不是很好吗？ - 盘前资金一直在买，为什么开盘却被砸？ - 是不是主力故意出货？ 事实上，如果把今天整个市场结合起来看，就会发现这次下跌并不是一个原因，而是四股力量同时作用。 第一章 市场最容易犯的错误：把利好理解成上涨 闪迪这次公布的财报，其实整体并不差。 公司收入继续保持高速增长，AI数据中心业务依旧是最大亮点，盈利能力同样远超市场此前预期。整体来看，这份成绩单称得上是一份优秀财报。 因此，美股盘前资金第一时间的反应就是： 先买。 于是盘前股价一路稳步拉升。 但是，美股真正交易的时候，并不是在交易昨天，而是在交易未来。 市场真正关注的是： 下一季度还能不能继续超预期？ 而这里恰恰出现了问题。 第二章 真正压垮股价的，是未来指引 虽然闪迪交出了漂亮的成绩单， 但是管理层对于下一季度给出的收入预测，却略低于华尔街此前的预期。 简单来说就是： 市场预计： 100分 公司告诉大家： 大概95分。 虽然95分已经很好， 但是资本市场交易的是： 预期差。 哪怕只比Many people compare SOL with ETH and directly say ETH is no good; this point needs to be clear.
ETH is no longer positioned as a high-performance public chain; it is the underlying settlement layer for the entire crypto space. Most stablecoins, DeFi, and RWA real-world assets are still rooted here, with a large amount of tokens staked and locked long-term. This is a foundational advantage that altcoins and SOL cannot match.
Positive catalysts: upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade, staking ETFs, and the explosion of RWA asset tokenization are all potential triggers for a major market rally. Recently, the market also shows that during a market pullback, ETH's resilience is clearly stronger than that of SOL and similar tokens, making it the preferred choice for capital seeking safety.
But the pitfalls must also be recognized:
L2 layer two solutions divert mainnet revenue, reducing burn, so it’s no longer the strong deflation narrative it used to be; SEC regulation hangs overhead; SOL competes aggressively for users and developers, so competitive pressure is real.
ETH is not a violent underdog; it follows the institutional slow bull logic. There will be big moves in a bull market, but it won’t surge every day. Only those who endure will reap the rewards.
Don’t treat ETH like an altcoin to speculate on; don’t chase highs all at once. It’s more appropriate to accumulate gradually during pullbacks. $ETH The future of the crypto world is very pessimistic because, at present, its second phase mission seems unfulfilled. Its first phase mission has been achieved: to make digital currency one of the mainstream currencies, a phase that relies on consensus. Its second phase mission is to become a financial market comparable to or even surpassing Nasdaq*, but achieving this stage is difficult because it relies on the overall quality of the players. Why do I say this? Because to surpass Nasdaq, it must be decentralized, becoming an independent fast-paced financing market without complicated procedures. For example, when Zhang San wants to start a company, he has a very good idea and operating model. He no longer needs to patiently persuade investors or raise funds in mainstream markets with barriers like A-shares or US stocks. You only need to go to the crypto world to easily raise tens of millions or even hundreds of millions to realize your vision. What the crypto industry needs to do now is to incubate dozens of unicorn companies for the real industry to prove its value. But now, the overall quality of the crypto industry is low, scammers run rampant, and most projects are just scamming money. Top exchange controllers, such as Zhao Changpeng+, should have played a role similar to the CSRC chairman, but in his own perception, he is a casino owner. The entire industry is full of scammers and gamblers throughout the upstream, midstream, and downstream; lack of regulation and high overall quality are inherently inherently unacceptable🚨 THE U.S. JUST LOST JOBS… AND MARKETS WEREN’T READY FOR IT.
The latest NFP report came in at -23K vs. +85K expected.
That’s a massive miss — instead of adding jobs, the U.S. economy actually lost 23,000 jobs.
Here’s how I’m reading it 👇
📉 USD: Bearish
🟡 Gold: Bullish
🚀 BTC & Crypto: Potentially bullish
A weaker labor market could increase expectations for easier Fed policy and future rate cuts — generally a positive setup for risk assets.
But there’s a catch. ⚠️
A number this weak also raises the risk of a sharper economic slowdown. If markets start pricing in recession instead of rate cuts, volatility could get ugly.
So I’m not chasing the first move.
I want to see $BTC confirm the direction before making any decisions.
The market will react fast.
I’d rather react to confirmation than become exit liquidity.
Stay patient.
Let the market reveal its hand. 👀
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit Ten hard-learned lessons from $ETH traders: 1. Protecting your principal is the investor's first rule. 2. Stick to a few assets, never go all in, and follow the trend. 3. Avoid heavy positions, don't fight the market, and don't trade frequently. 4. Buy patiently, sell decisively, and never delay stop-loss. 5. Money can always be made, but it can also be lost completely. 6. When stop-loss is triggered, exit unconditionally; stop-loss is always right. 7. Don't trade just because the market moves; missing some opportunities is normal, capturing some is enough. 8. Waiting for trading opportunities is always better than chasing them. 9. Stop-loss is yours to manage; profits are given by the market. 10. Mindset is fragile in the face of desire. Follow your trading strategy strictly and achieve unity of knowledge and action! These truths cost me millions to realize. I hope fellow traders will study them carefully, find them helpful, and achieve enlightenment and financial freedom soon! 🌙 Quick recap tonight｜This market feels drained, just waiting for the nonfarm payrolls shot
👂 1. Macro: The big players are collectively "hawkish"
💥 The Fed folks have been really tough lately. Kashkari, Cook, Daly have been taking turns, all implying the same thing: "More hikes needed, current pace isn't enough." CME's odds for a 25bps hike in September are stuck at 55%, down from 67% earlier this week, but still over half, which is bearish.
📰 The Financial Times is even more aggressive: if inflation stays stubborn, Wash is ready to act in September. US Treasuries got hammered, yields soaring.
📉 Yesterday's ADP data was only +44K, quite weak, showing hiring is slowing. But Powell only cares about inflation; weaker employment might make him more aggressive.
🛢️ 2. Geopolitics & External: Oil went crazy, gold faltered
🚀 Crude oil played a deep V, WTI surged to $77.9, up over 3 points. Why? The Strait of Hormuz is nearly blocked, plus Saudi Arabia cut exports to the US to zero. But there’s counter news that US and Iran talks in Oman are close, possibly "partially" reopening the strait. This jump in oil reignited inflation expectations.
💰 Gold underperformed, down 0.45% closing at 4261. It last touched 4300 back in June but was scared back by the Fed’s comments. CITIC is optimistic, saying $4000 is basically a solid floor.
🧠 Storage chips remain a hard logic: Samsung, Hynix, Micron have locked capacity through next year, shortages to last until 2027. Changxin ignores Apple’s price cuts, very confident. Nvidia is so tight on DRAM supply it’s even considering cutting memory on Rubin Ultra GPUs.
📈 3. Market technicals: pent-up, ready to move!
📉 BTC — The big trend is unchanged, bears still dominate. Monthly MACD is underwater, weekly hasn’t even crossed moving averages. Daily barely closed above MA20 (64363), but MACD green bars reappeared, volume is pitiful, currently stuck in the 62500-66200 range.
🤐 Focus on 4H and 1H charts, Bollinger Band widths shrunk to 2.3% and 1.1%! Classic "suffocation" pattern, countdown to breakout.
💪 ETH — This week’s leader, slightly stronger than BTC. Daily is above 1889 and 1790 MAs, RSI looks better. But same issues: low volume, narrow range, MACD weakening. Support at 1832, resistance at 1945.
😩 SOL — The weakest at $726, all moving averages bearish, avoid for now.
🎰 4. Derivatives data: Nobody’s playing?
😌 Funding rates are normal, longs pay a bit of interest, nothing crazy.
📦 Open interest isn’t high, BTC around $2B, ETH $1.28B, showing cautious sentiment.
🚫 Spot premium turned negative, meaning US spot buyers don’t want to take the risk, confidence is low.
😨 Fear & Greed Index at 29, still in fear zone but slightly recovered from yesterday’s 25 (extreme fear).
📉 Most critical is DVOL (volatility index) dropped to 35! It was 46 this morning, combined with tightening Bollinger Bands, this is "calm before the storm."
🎯 5. Core view: Don’t guess, wait for signals
🤫 Current situation: no volatility, volume dried up, sentiment fearful. This signals a pending breakout but direction unknown. BTC at 64K is exactly the max pain point for options, main players controlling the market steadily.
🚶♂️ This week’s annoying phenomenon: US stocks rallying while crypto is shrinking. "Follow the drop, not the rise" means macro headwinds (rate hikes + nonfarm) are too strong, funds hesitate to jump in.
🥇 Relative strength ranking: ETH > BTC > SOL. If going long, prioritize ETH.
🧭 6. Summary
🧐 Long-term bearish unchanged, short-term pent-up. How it moves tonight through tomorrow depends entirely on Friday’s nonfarm data. Though the macro is bearish, everyone is already trapped; chasing shorts now risks losses. Be patient, wait for a breakout from the range before acting.
🛠️ 7. Tonight’s plan? (Just ideas, not advice)
🟢 BTC: Range trade between 62500-66200. Near lower edge 62200-62500, light buy for rebound (stop loss below 61800). Near upper edge 66000, reduce or try short. Avoid heavy bets on direction before nonfarm!
💎 ETH: Buy on pullback to 1832-1850 (near MA20), stop loss below 1810, target 1945 first, then 1982 if broken. Best long choice.
🔴 SOL: Too weak, don’t bottom fish yet. Consider short only if it rebounds to 73-74.
🛑 Safety mantra: Low volatility + Bollinger squeeze = imminent breakout, direction unknown. Keep positions light! Friday nonfarm is the biggest "bomb," don’t "run naked" before data.
🚨 8. Risk warning
💣 Most important: Nonfarm data at 20:30 Beijing time tonight! Strong employment = steady hikes = risk asset crash. Biggest risk this week.
🗣️ Fed’s Barkin speaks at 10pm, New York Fed inflation expectations data at 3am.
🕌 Middle East is volatile; US-Iran deal means oil down, good for stocks and crypto; talks fail means oil up, inflation spikes, bearish.
🎣 Final reminder: In this low-volume market, fake breakouts are common. Always wait for volume confirmation, don’t get stopped out by manipulative moves.
$BTC $ETH $SOL While SK Hynix's stock price was still struggling around the $1,000 mark, on-chain data revealed a striking detail: a mysterious short whale seemed to believe that the crash of this semiconductor bull was far from over. According to TradingBeats monitoring, as of August 7, an address starting with "0x6bb" is staging a highly determined short-selling show. Even though SK Hynix's stock price has been halved from its peak to $1,042, the whale continues to increase its bets, placing nearly 90% of its current take-profit orders in the $600 to $747 price range. This means that in his blueprint, SK Hynix's stock price would have to drop at least another 28%, or at most 40% to satisfy his appetite. This is not a spur-of-the-moment gamble, but a carefully calculated, protracted battle. $SKHYNIX Looking back at his operational trajectory, this whale is no ordinary figure. As early as June 22, when SK Hynix's stock price was still at a high of $1,892, he began systematically shorting the position. For more than a month afterward, he demonstrated exceptional trading patience, covering some positions to profit when the stock price dropped, and without hesitation to short again on rebounds. Through this rolling strategy of "covering on the dip, shorting again on the rebound," he cleverly lowered his comprehensive position construction cost to $1,338.3. Currently, this address is cross-marginalizing 6,687 SKHX contracts with 10x leverage, with a position value of about $6.969 million. The nearly $2 million unrealized profit on paper did not satisfy him; instead,The evening coin price continued the bottom-rebound trend from the afternoon, further breaking through the previous upper resistance level. The coin price rebounded to a high near 65,300, then faced pressure again in the short-term top range and fell back. The current coin price correction trend is still ongoing. The short-term bullish trend given to everyone during this morning's strategy and live broadcast was perfectly validated in this afternoon's rally. Our live trading layout also gained nearly a thousand points of profit again. The release of the non-farm payroll data in the evening and the slight gap-up in the US stock market did not further push the continuation of the long side. The main idea remains to focus on the positive oscillation. Currently, the short-term focus is on the pullback after the rebound rally, and short positions can be taken during the rebound for layout.
Short BTC near 65,200, watch near 64,200. Short ETH near 1,925, watch near 1,890. $BTC $ETH $SNDK