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$ETH Has been doing its thing and holding on to this current price range.
But the level to break and hold is $1950. That would open the door to a move above $2.1K+
Especially seeing how compressed price has been here, a breakout (to either side) should come with a decent squeeze of positions that are caught offside.
$1850 is the invalidation below for the bulls.🏦 THE CRYPTO MARKET IS QUIETLY CHANGING HANDS
For years, crypto was dominated by retail traders chasing narratives, momentum and the next breakout.
That structure is evolving.
The latest numbers suggest institutional capital is becoming a much larger force behind market activity.
Wintermute reported that institutions now account for roughly 72% of its spot OTC trading volume, compared with 59% a year earlier.
That's not a minor shift.
It points to deeper institutional participation in the market's largest trades.
And another development this week makes the trend even more interesting.
MARA committed 18,750 $BTC — roughly $1.2B — as collateral for $600M in financing rather than selling the Bitcoin.
That's a very different approach to managing a crypto treasury.
Instead of converting $BTC into cash, the company is effectively using its Bitcoin holdings as a financial asset while maintaining exposure to the underlying position.
Then there's the ETF picture. 👀
💰 $BTC ETFs: +$844M
💰 $ETH ETFs: +$244M
Ethereum's weekly inflows also reached their strongest level since April.
Put those pieces together and a broader trend starts to emerge:
🏦 More institutional trading
₿ Large Bitcoin holdings being retained
📈 Stronger ETF participation
💧 Greater access to traditional capital
This doesn't mean retail is disappearing.
It means the market is becoming more institutionally connected.
And that could fundamentally change how crypto cycles behave.
Large capital tends to think in quarters and years, not minutes.
That could mean deeper liquidity, different volatility patterns and increasingly important reactions to macroeconomic data.
The next crypto cycle may therefore be less about:
“What is retail buying today?”
…and increasingly about:
“Where is institutional capital positioning next?”
👀 The shift may already be underway.
#Bitcoin $BTC #Ethereum $ETH #Crypto #ETF #InstitutionalInvestors
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases Summary:
Following the previous text, the prior upward trend has ended and shifted to a downward trend.
Subsequent price projection:
The trend is downward, temporarily expected to fall to around the 64300 average price, fluctuating up and down at this level to find direction.
Since mid-term accumulation is about to begin, note that if it breaks below 64300 and cannot quickly recover, the bearish outlook targets around 64000-63700.
Previous projection:
Due to the attraction of distribution order blocks, the price may oscillate between 65640-64979, with a possibility of breaking above 65640.
After breaking above, due to significant selling pressure, the price may fall below 64979, with the deepest retracement temporarily seen near 64752.
Actual price movement:
After a high spike at 65540, it is currently fluctuating around 64700.
Subsequent trend:
Chip vacuum
Short-term bears are attacking; from 65133, bears have been continuously attacking. Although the bear attack at 65133 was filled back, lower areas around 64940-65013 and near 64800 are also bear attacks. Currently, the short-term trend shows continued bearish pressure downward, with the highest point possibly near 65000.
Mid-term remains oscillating as before, and long-term looks at the previously mentioned bull attack zone 64752-64437, which is about to be filled, expecting a break below 64437.
According to this indicator, bears are currently attacking, targeting the lower edge of the long-term bull defense line at 64437.
Price channel
Volume-weighted short-term average price 63750, upper limit 70090, lower limit 58260.
Volume-weighted mid-term average price 63830, upper limit 67260, lower limit 59360.
Volume-weighted long-term average price 69800, lower limit 59160.
According to this indicator, the current price is above the average price, but the average price has started to retract compared to before, with recent support at 63830. The upward trend is temporarily intact, with the lowest expected to oscillate around 63830.
Equity short-term average price 64430, upper limit 66810, lower limit 62310.
Equity mid-term average price 63750, upper limit 66810, lower limit 58360.
Equity long-term average price 64010, upper limit 65200, lower limit 62500.
According to this indicator, the current price is above the moving averages but is approaching the short-term average price and has already touched the long-term upper limit. The trend is downward toward the short-term average price 64430 to find support, with the second support at 64010.
Combining the two indicators, the long-term upper limit of equity at 65200 is suppressing the price, causing a pullback to the first support level at 64430 to oscillate and seek support.
There are three support levels: 64430, 64000, and 63800, all close to each other. First, expect oscillation toward 64430.
Volume-price order blocks
The latest lowest short-term accumulation order is near 64300. Mid- and long-term accumulation has not started yet, but the historical distribution orders above have been completely broken through, which aligns with our previous statement that after a spike distribution order, the price pulls back due to selling pressure.
This indicator currently shows a downward trend, adjusting to around 64300.
Limit order engulfing
Short-term historical bull attacks at 64500-64000, 64340-63950. Currently, this indicator also shows overlapping bull support near 64340, temporarily expecting a pullback here. If it breaks below and cannot recover, it may fall to 63950.
Comprehensive analysis:
Chip vacuum shows current bear attacks targeting the lower edge of the long-term bull defense at 64437.
Price channel indicator shows moving to the first defense line at 64430 to seek support.
Volume-price order blocks indicate a downward trend, temporarily expecting a break below 64300.
Limit order engulfing shows moving to the first bull support near 64340.The expansion blueprint of the Texas base intertwines with an after-hours surge of nearly 10%, as $AAOI, following a better-than-expected Q2 report, has drawn the competition for 800G and 1.6T optical modules into a capacity tug-of-war.
From a monthly capacity of 100,000 units at the end of Q1 to nearly 200,000 units, and then aiming for 930,000 units by the end of 2027, the high-density expansion pace is being rapidly priced into the market.
The previous downward revision of non-farm payroll data has eased inflationary pressure, and the cooling of rate hike expectations has improved market risk appetite, driving funds back into high-growth hardware sectors.
The recovery of macro preferences and aggressive expansion targets have formed a short-term resonance, but whether the multi-year plant construction and equipment commissioning can be delivered on time remains to be confirmed.
If the upcoming CPI data confirms a slowdown in inflationary pressure, and subsequent plant construction and yield improvements meet expectations, the market's certainty premium on hardware demand will continue to consolidate; if high capital expenditures rapidly consume liquidity, the bullish momentum will be interrupted.
When equipment delivery is delayed or expansion costs exceed budget, concentrated profit-taking at high levels will quickly suppress valuations; if inflation data unexpectedly rebounds and rekindles rate hike concerns, the contraction of risk appetite will accelerate the stock price pullback.
Currently, the pricing logic of funds relies on the dual assumptions of computing power demand and localized implementation; once actual capacity construction deviates from the established schedule, the tight position structure will face severe adjustments.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is the transmission of interest rate expectations and inflation trajectory to asset prices after Wednesday's CPI release.
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克 #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？8.10 BTC is still not the bottom to buy; on the left side, we need to wait for 57000 / 54000｜Gold triple position long at 4324 / 4267 / 4200
This time, let's look at BTC from a larger timeframe.
Conclusion first: We are currently in the mid-to-late bear market phase, this is indisputable; but this is not the place to go all-in.
If you go all-in now, you are standing at a very left-side position.
Where is the real left-side position:
· The trendline connecting two lows at 57000 is an extreme
· 54000 is the ultimate VWAP from the end of 2022
· And just reaching these levels is not enough; we also need to see bottom divergence and other deceleration signals to get a good price with good odds
What conditions on the right side would confirm the bottom: a volume breakout above 65000, a successful retest, then look at 67000 (previous high). Between 65000 and 67000, there must be a decent volume breakout + retest and then a rise again.
This is a Bayesian approach: first set hypotheses, then follow whichever the market plays out. I am currently holding short positions with an average cost above 64000.
Then I did something I usually don’t like to do: marking the boat.
This current phase is very similar to June 2022: drop, decelerated rebound, then drop again. Back then, it dropped 22% in the last week to form the historical low. So I fully reviewed that bottom period, focusing not on price but on time:
· After June, it took another 4 months to reach the historical low
· Buying one position in Nov-Dec 2022, the second retest only came in March the next year
· Then another 3 months, then another 3 months
· Gradually averaging down, the cost could get to 25000; even if you count from the peak, buying spot at 30000 is still very nice
This is what a bear market bottom looks like: long and brutal. So don’t rush to bottom fish. You can avoid shorting, but going long at this position has a mediocre risk-reward—it looks more like a downward continuation.
Gold, on the other hand, is very strong:
· The rebound momentum is strong, basically never broke the rising VWAP, and liquidity is much better than BTC
· I didn’t add heavy positions on the 4150 breakout mentioned last time; all TP was set between 4170–4200
· Today, I entered the first position at VWAP 4324, TP set at 4454 (a key VWAP where support and resistance swap)
· Divided into three positions: 4324 / 4267 / 4200, a fourth near 4154 but not easily touched
· After filling three positions, wait for volume signals; if it holds, consider adding on the right side#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
The U.S. nonfarm payrolls for July decreased by 23,000, while the market expected an increase of 80,000. At the same time, the May and June nonfarm payrolls were revised down by a total of 103,000.
The U.S. employment data is becoming increasingly surreal. This relates to the way U.S. employment data is compiled, but let's not dwell on that. In any case, the Fed's rate hike expectations have significantly diminished.
As mentioned in my previous article, the Fed will not (or dare not) raise rates lightly. Some even say that Waller is a dove disguised in hawkish clothing; he won't allow a hard economic landing and is more likely to use rate hike expectations to suppress data.
On August 12, the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) data will be released; let's see if it also falls below expectations.
Lower rate hike expectations are favorable for gold and other precious metals, as well as for growth tech stocks.
$AAOI On Friday, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), a U.S. optical module company, delivered an explosive Q2 report, not only significantly improving performance beyond expectations but also boldly declaring plans to expand optical module capacity nearly tenfold by the end of 2027, mostly supported by its local Texas base.
This news, combined with previous reports of the U.S. planning to ban Chinese optical modules, has once again sparked market concerns, causing the leading A-share optical module stocks to plunge sharply in the afternoon.
Personally, I think there is no need to panic. Capacity expansion requires time for factory construction, equipment purchase and debugging, yield ramp-up, and cost control. Moreover, Chinese optical modules hold 70% of the market share; replacement is not that simple.
This situation reflects a reality: the great power competition between China and the U.S., where neither side wants to be choked by the other, both pursuing "domestic substitution and independent control." In the future, as Foxconn's Terry Gou said, "One world, two systems."
This also confirms the certainty of the explosive demand for mid-to-high-end 800G/1.6T optical modules. The upstream InP (Indium Phosphide) supply chain shortage cannot be alleviated in the short term, making the related stocks worthy of medium- to long-term attention.
During the conference call, Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) management no longer boasted about current performance but instead announced unprecedented capacity expansion, directly driving the stock price up nearly 10%. Management provided a timeline: by the end of Q1 this year, 800G and 1.6T capacity was about 100,000 units per month; currently, total capacity is close to 200,000 units per month. By the end of 2026, the target monthly capacity exceeds 650,000 units; by the end of 2027, the target monthly capacity exceeds 930,000 units. Using the Q1 figure of 100,000 units as a base, capacity will increase nearly tenfold by the end of 2027.
This is not investment advice; profits and losses are your own responsibility Everyone, I've watched this reflection on the knockoff season several times, and the direction is spot on. Mi Ge will highlight a few key points for you and add some of my own observations. First, the core judgment: this knockoff season is a completely different matter from the previous one. You might think the altcoin season is all coins rising together, with new and old coins sharing the same benefits, and the gains should be as strong as in 2021. But in reality, many knockoff sectors have already seen significant gains this time. If you don't make money, it's not because there's no market trend, but because the timing isn't right and the costs are too high. 9U WLD and 70U ORDI—you might think they're trash, but if you count how many times they've risen from the bottom, you'll know for yourself. Brother Mi added a key perspective: the big top of the old coin is basically over. Brothers of old coins, don't fantasize that every coin can break previous highs; not every project is INJ. Most old coins have already exited the stage of history. In the final stage of the bull market, they might "shoot a little" to show respect for the bull market, but don't expect to return to the peak. The knockoffs that completed the bull market cycle this round have four characteristics: concentrated chips, teams still working, able to follow hot topics, and skilled marketing. New coin chips are concentrated, no stranded positions, and have undergone sufficient shakeout. You must go to a major firm—this is the prerequisite for sustained market performance. Strategically, double your costs—don't be greedy. Where is the core conflict? The number of knockoffs has increased by several orders of magnitude compared to 2021, and their market value has also expanded. The overall gains in each bull market have been declining. Even with rate cuts, the scale of liquidity injections is likely to be lower than in 2020. The water for rate cuts will not flow evenly into every coin; it will only flow into the marketThe trending list first gives the total amount, but I usually look at the source because it better illustrates how the hype spread. In the one-hour snapshot updated by OKX Onchain OS at 20:00 on August 10, BTC was mentioned 43 times, X accounted for 38 times, and news 5 times; ETH was used 21 times, X 18 times, and 3 news events; There were 10 instances of SOL, 10 times of X, and 0 times of news. After conversion, X accounts for about 88% of BTC mentions in one hour, 86% of ETH, and 100% of SOL. These ratios are not good or bad scores, but rather indicate where the message is mainly spreading. X usually reacts faster and can capture immediate attention; News sources update more slowly but are easier to return to specific events. When sources are highly concentrated on X, the reasonable approach is to increase timeliness sensitivity rather than lower the verification standard. Concentration of sources also affects emotional proportions. BTC is currently bullish by 30% and bearish by 21%; ETH is 29% bullish, 14% bearish; SOL is 60% bullish, bearish 0%. If a large amount of text originates from reposting the same narrative, the classification ratio may be neat, but the amount of independent information may not be equally high, so the unified tone cannot be directly taken as broad consensus. News mentions that are not natural nor reliable either. The aggregate ranking only shows the source category and quantity, and does not mean that every news article has been confirmed by the project team or regulatory authorities. To make it factual, we should further open the agreement announcement and the foundationOn OKX, ETH quietly climbed to the top spot on the biggest losers list tonight (-2.53%), and BTC also followed with increased volume pushing down.
The US stock market is also restless—3x leveraged semiconductor XSOXL down -4.95% in one day, PC industry -2.71%, risk assets are collectively retreating.
BTC volume flipped from a stagnant -64% last hour to a +99% surge, but the price fell instead of rising, down -1.378% in 24h.
Open Interest (OI) only slightly dropped from 106,000 to 105,800—those selling off are mostly spot holders or low-leverage traders, not a chain liquidation.
This combination of "increased volume + price drop + stable OI" usually means some are proactively reducing positions before CPI, not a bloodbath for bulls.
Here's a trick to identify fake distribution: when volume rises and price falls, ask yourself three questions.
① Can the volume sustain? (A single huge volume spike followed by a drop = likely a fakeout);
② Has the price broken the previous low? (Breaking below 64,000 = structural damage);
③ Is OI dropping in sync? (OI stable = spot selling, OI dropping = leverage crash). At least two conditions must hold to confirm real weakness.
Tonight, volume is up, price is down, OI is steady—more like pre-CPI position trimming, not the start of a crash.
Would you dare catch this falling knife with increased volume? If yes, share your reasons in the comments; if not, tell us what you’re afraid of.
#OKXPlanet $BTC $ETH #IncreasedVolumeDrop #PreCPIeveShort-seller battle intensifies! Multiple rounds of SPCX unlocking waves are coming, the real test of the market is just beginning🔥
Many mistakenly believe that the first round of SPCX unlocking is the worst bad news, but they completely misread the rhythm! The large unlocking of 911.5 million shares on August 6 was just an appetizer; the nine-stage unlocking wave lasting more than a year has only just started. Coupled with a massive short position yet to be cleared, the subsequent long-short struggle will only become more intense. Although the current market seems resistant to decline, it actually hides the risk of continuous selling pressure.
1. Heavy unlocking schedule revealed, subsequent selling pressure far exceeds the first round
This round of SPCX unlocking adopts a phased unlocking mechanism, with pressure gradually increasing and continuously crushing the market:
On August 20, 319 million shares will be unlocked; in September and October, about 700 million shares will be released respectively. Compared to the first round of 911.5 million shares, the combined unlocking volume of 1.4 billion shares over two consecutive months doubles the pressure.
Most importantly, the overall unlocking cycle will continue until 2027, and Elon Musk and core shareholders’ lock-up period will not end until June next year. This means the long-term oversupply of shares cannot be reversed in the short term, and each unlocking window thereafter will become a potential trigger for stock price pullbacks.
2. Short positions have not exited, the long-short battle is stuck in a tug-of-war
There is a common misconception in the market: the stock price did not collapse after the first unlocking, so the bulls have stabilized. The real market data is the opposite; currently, over 250 million shares of SPCX are still in short positions, and the main short sellers have not retreated.
The current battle logic is extremely subtle: if subsequent unlocking occurs and internal shareholders concentrate on selling, it will provide ample ammunition for short sellers to hammer the price, likely causing the stock price to weaken under pressure; if the selling intensity is less than market expectations, short sellers trapped at high prices will be forced to cover, triggering a temporary rebound. The long-short battle is deadlocked, making it difficult for the market to form a one-sided trend.
3. Core market logic and practical judgment
The market’s smooth acceptance of the first unlocking was more due to short-term emotional support rather than substantial capital strength. Early employees and institutions have very low holding costs, and each unlocking round carries a strong willingness to cash out, with a continuous influx of new circulating shares diluting buying power.
Currently, SPCX’s valuation is in a very awkward position, with polarized battle space: long-term, the growth potential of the sector is sufficient, but short-term unlocking selling pressure and short-seller suppression combine as two major negatives, making it not cost-effective to hold heavy positions.
Practical strategy
The optimal current strategy: avoid heavy positions, avoid missing out, and avoid blind bottom-fishing.
No need to panic sell, nor rush to enter for a rebound play; patiently wait for multiple unlocking rounds to complete, short positions to clear, and share structure to stabilize before choosing an entry point. All current price increases are just volatile recoveries, not trend reversals.
⚠️This article is only a market review analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. The unlocking cycle of US stocks is long and volatility risk is very high; please manage positions rationally.$SPCX This lock-up release saga has just finished its prologue, and there are still many acts queued up behind it. The selling pressure is like wave after wave, giving the market no breathing room.
Let's break down the upcoming timeline:
The 900 million shares on August 6 were just the "appetizer," and it was caught without major incident? Don't relax just yet—on August 20, about 300 million shares will hit the market again. And that's not all; in September and October, nearly 700 million shares will each flood out monthly! The total volume is much larger than the first batch. Even more intense, this unlocking is divided into nine stages, stretching all the way to 2027; Musk and some core insiders have their stakes locked until June next year. So when will this supply flood finally end?
Looking at the short side, there are still over 250 million shares sitting in the short pool, not yet withdrawn. These players haven't fully exited. If insiders start dumping in bulk after unlocking, shorts will get unexpected help, making the downward pressure smoother; but if the actual selling pressure is less than expected, shorts will be squeezed hard, forced to cover with cries and wails—this tug-of-war between bulls and bears makes the outcome really uncertain.
Honestly: the first round didn't crash but actually rose, which is impressive, but don't treat that as a free pass. The real battle is the 1.4 billion new shares coming in the next two months. At this price level, you could say it's not high, and there might be gains in the long run; but the risks are definitely real, since the chip tsunami is far from over. For now, I won't rush in to gamble; I'd rather grab a small stool and watch the show, waiting for the chips to settle before making a move. Chasing now? Not necessary. Cutting losses and running? Also unnecessary. Stay calm—surviving these storms longer than others is the best strategy.
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ Grayscale withdraws applications for three altcoin ETFs: Is the altcoin ETF craze over?
Recently, the market has noticed that Grayscale has withdrawn some altcoin ETF-related applications.
Many people's first reaction: "Are institutions no longer optimistic about altcoins?"
But it's not that simple. Because an ETF truly represents more than just a trading product.
It represents whether traditional capital is willing to formally recognize this asset.
The market's past expectation was:
BTC ETF opens the door,
ETH ETF follows,
and then more altcoins enter the ETF era.
But now it seems the attitude of institutions may be changing:
Not all altcoins will automatically receive ETF treatment.
Why? Because behind ETFs, considerations include: liquidity, market size, regulatory certainty.
Whether the asset has a long-term investment logic.
Simply put:
Previously, the market speculated on: "Who can become the next ETF?"
Now institutions are starting to consider: "Who truly deserves to enter the ETF?"
This is actually a screening process.
For some small-cap, highly volatile projects with short narrative cycles,
ETFs may not be a positive.
Because institutions need:
Assets that can still exist years later.
Not short-term hype.
So Grayscale's withdrawal of applications does not necessarily mean the end of altcoins.
It more likely indicates that the crypto market is moving from a "phase of broad expansion" into an "asset selection phase."
In the future, we may see:
BTC: digital gold narrative.
ETH: infrastructure narrative.
Some altcoins: real application directions like RWA, AI, DeFi, etc.
While many projects without sustained demand
may find it increasingly difficult to gain institutional capital recognition.
In the short term, Grayscale's ETF withdrawal may bring emotional pressure to some related tokens.
But in the long term, ETFs will not make all coins rise.
They will only help the market filter:
Which assets can enter the traditional financial system.
The real question is not: "Is there an ETF?"
But: "Does this asset qualify for long-term institutional holding?" $BTC $ETH #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ Storage sector short-term script
There have been quite a few recent negative factors in the storage sector, including the convergence of storage contract price increases, expectations of capacity expansion, and Nvidia Rubin Ultra reducing HBM configuration.
Therefore, the storage sector has shown weak performance on the market, with a brief rebound followed by a pullback due to short-term supply line resistance, and it has continued to decline over the past few trading days. Among them, SK Hynix has been the weakest performer in the storage sector, dragging down the overall sector's performance.
However, the recent decline volume of SK Hynix has been significantly smaller, indicating a notable reduction in selling pressure. Thus, the second test is unlikely to break below the previous low. After the second test is completed, it is expected to break through the short-term supply line and rebound upward to test resistance area 1 (1.68 million - 2 million KRW).
Considering the heavy trapped positions within resistance area 1, it will be difficult to break through resistance area 1 (1.68 million - 2 million KRW) in the short term (Q3).
Similar to SK Hynix's trend, Micron ($MU) and SanDisk ($SNDK) are also expected to break through the short-term supply line and rebound upward to test resistance areas.
Since Micron's trend is stronger than SK Hynix and SanDisk, Micron has a certain possibility of breaking through the 890-1010 resistance area in Q3, but it is unlikely to surpass the previous high.
SanDisk's probability of breaking through the resistance area (1325-1696) in Q3 is low.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice! $BICO dropped from 0.09 back to 0.04, has the harvesting started?
The recent trend can no longer be viewed normally.
At the beginning of August, it was still around $0.012, then on August 9 it peaked at 0.09, rising more than sevenfold in just a few days; subsequently, it dropped to a low of 0.03734, a retracement of over 58% from the high. It is now reported at $0.04269, with a 24-hour trading volume reaching 321 million tokens, whereas before the surge it was only a few million per day.
Such a large turnover indicates that early holders are cashing out wildly, while new long and short positions are fiercely competing around 0.04.
The news side is not as lively as the price action. Biconomy has indeed been advancing ERC-8211 and Smart Batching SDK recently, but there is no new announcement sufficient to explain the sevenfold increase. My understanding is straightforward: project progress is just the foundation; the real ignition this time is liquidity, contract funds, and short squeeze.
Currently, OKX perpetual funding rate is about -0.056%, with the previous period even reaching -0.111%. Shorts are already quite crowded, and continuing to short is easy to get caught by a sudden spike; the negative funding rate also indicates the market is not optimistic about the subsequent trend.
In the short term, watch 0.040—0.0373 dollars first; if this level does not hold, the next support might be at 0.0326. On the upside, first break 0.0442, then look at 0.0483—0.0507. Only with volume expansion and a firm hold above 0.0507 can we talk about a second wave of rise. A U.S. Senate bill needed 60 votes to pass. It got 51, and now the entire regulatory timeline for crypto market structure just slipped by at least a month.
The Crypto Clarity Act failed to clear the Senate before summer recess, pushing debate to September 14. This isn't a minor procedural delay. The bill was meant to define how tokens are classified and regulated, and its absence keeps exchanges, custodians, and institutional allocators operating without clear rules on what counts as a security versus a commodity.
The impact is uneven. $XRP, still fighting to hold $1, remains the most exposed, since its long-running legal history makes it a bellwether for classification clarity. Tokenization plays like $ONDO and infrastructure tokens such as $LINK share that sensitivity. Meanwhile $BTC and $ETH keep absorbing steady ETF inflows regardless of the delay, and $SOL, $HYPE, $AVAX, $SUI, and $TAO continue trading on usage and derivatives activity rather than pending legislation. $DOGE and $BNB remain largely indifferent to this specific catalyst.
The risk: another delay in September extends uncertainty into Q4. The opportunity: clarity, whenever it arrives, could unlock institutional capital currently sitting on the sidelines.
Is the market pricing in a September pass, or ignoring the risk of another delay entirely?📊$BTC $ETH BTC ETH Latest data early morning
$BTC current price 64405
Daily chart maintains a large range oscillation, MACD red bars continue to shrink, upward momentum weakens.
Short-term support at 63200‑63300, resistance at 65500‑66000.
No independent trend yet, price movement highly correlated with the Nasdaq, awaiting Wednesday's CPI release, treat as consolidation for now.
$ETH current price 1877
Performance clearly weaker than BTC, has broken below 5/10/20-day moving averages, MACD turned green, short-term weakening.
Key support at 1840‑1850, resistance at 1910‑1930.
ETH is more volatile; once risk appetite declines, the retracement will be greater than Bitcoin.
(Personal analysis only, not investment advice)
Everyone move forward steadily, wishing you great wealth and continuous improvement In-depth analysis of the new 23-hour trading rule for US stocks, completely reshaping the crypto and storage sector market🔥
Nasdaq is about to implement daily 23-hour trading with only 1 hour for clearing and market close. The core purpose is to hedge the 7×24-hour trading advantage of crypto, directly changing the operational logic of the three major assets $BTC, $ETH, and $SNDK.
1. For crypto assets $BTC/$ETH: short-term diversion, long-term benefit for compliant assets
Previously, a large amount of funds flowed into the crypto market for speculation after US stock market close. The new rule covers the entire Asia-Pacific and Europe time zones, causing a large amount of cross-border funds to flow back into crypto-related US stocks like COIN and MSTR, diverting short-term speculative funds from spot crypto and suppressing the rebound strength of BTC and ETH in the short term.
However, it forms a positive linkage in the long term: Asia-Pacific funds can trade crypto concept stocks during the day, institutions’ willingness to allocate BTC spot ETFs increases, and the bottom buying supported by 64000 and 1870 will continue to strengthen. At the same time, there is no overnight pricing vacuum; CPI and Federal Reserve news are digested instantly, greatly reducing extreme gaps the next day, and frequent long-short spike oscillations will become normal.
2. Storage asset $SNDK receives sustained benefits
Storage companies are mostly part of the Asia-Pacific supply chain. The new rule perfectly matches Asian investors’ trading hours, allowing Asia-Pacific funds to directly deploy AI storage cycle logic intraday, with continuous inflow of incremental funds.
Previously, Asian funds could only wait for US market open, with thin liquidity at night. The 23-hour trading smooths out time zone barriers. Industry tracks like $SNDK will continuously receive cross-time zone fund support, further strengthening their resilience to declines, which is also the underlying catalyst for its recent strength amid broad market declines.
3. Hidden risks and practical reminders for the whole market
1. Liquidity is thin during late-night trading hours, large orders can easily cause rapid price swings, significantly increasing volatility in crypto and tech stocks, and intensifying the risk of two-way contract liquidations;
2. Global news is digested without buffering, geopolitical and inflation data impact the market in real time, with no overnight risk-hedging window;
3. Do not chase short-term impulse moves; lightly position BTC and ETH based on key supports, prioritize allocating to real sector tracks like $SNDK favored by cross-time zone funds, and avoid altcoins without fundamentals.
⚠️This is only a policy market review and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto derivatives carry extremely high volatility risks.The BIP-110 fork stalled 8 hours after launch due to insufficient hash power support, exposing the core conflict between Bitcoin's underlying governance struggles and transaction fee preferences.
The forked chain produced only 2 blocks before stalling, with no substantial hash power shift from the mainnet, indicating that the core stake held by large holders and mainnet miners remained intact. The event's impact on $BTC risk appetite mainly manifested in the stabilization of transaction fee expectations and the retracement of risk-off leveraged positions.
The key drivers of current stake changes are, in order, mainnet hash power stability, block space fee rate volatility, and the repricing of derivatives leverage positions. Due to the forked chain's lack of sufficient hash power backing, the risk premium in spot and derivatives markets quickly declined, with short-term funds re-concentrating in mainnet spot.
The trigger for an upward scenario is the mainnet hash power maintaining a high level and transaction fees remaining stable; the market would interpret this stall as a validation of the underlying protocol's defensive capability. In this case, monitoring large address holdings is necessary; if no large-scale on-chain sell-off occurs, a rebound in risk appetite will support continued accumulation of spot positions.
The failure signal for this upward scenario is an abnormal surge in unconfirmed mainnet transactions pushing fees higher, thereby squeezing liquidity.
The trigger for a downward scenario is ecological divergence causing further miner group fragmentation, with increased on-chain friction costs suppressing new capital inflows. If derivatives open interest rapidly falls from highs accompanied by liquidations, the market will shift to emotional volatility and correction.
A sign of scenario failure is a sudden, unanticipated loss of mainnet hash power or the community reaching a highly controversial consensus on rule changes, prompting risk-off funds to flow from spot to derivatives hedging.
The most important variables to watch over the next 7 days are the direction of mainnet hash power difficulty adjustment, changes in average on-chain transaction fees, and convergence of derivatives funding rates.
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克 #Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大 #伯克希尔结束净卖出，重启大额配置The batch of coins from 2013, the only ones still breathing now are really just $DOGE and $LTC. More than a decade has passed, and you probably haven't even heard of those names from the same period—Namecoin, Peercoin, Feathercoin—their graves are overgrown with three-meter-high grass. These two survived not because of superior technology, but because of sheer resilience.
Let's start with LTC. Back then, it was positioned as "Bitcoin silver," with code almost copied from BTC, just changing the block time and algorithm, and that was it. Such a "clone" would be heavily criticized today, but in 2013, the market accepted it—simple, familiar, no surprises. More importantly, it caught the early Coinbase ride and became a perennial channel for fiat deposits. Many old retail investors' first crypto trade was LTC, so the inertia is huge. It survives today because it's "boring enough"—it hasn't undergone any earth-shattering upgrades nor had any epic vulnerabilities; it just lingers on, which ironically made it a standard on exchanges.
DOGE is even more absurd. It started as a joke; even the founder treated it as a parody project, but the community turned it into a cultural symbol. The meme culture, tipping culture, and Reddit rewards of 2013 all piled onto DOGE. Later, Elon Musk's repeated endorsements directly turned this meme coin into a mainstream asset. It has no technical moat, and even the founder is gone, but the community consensus is ridiculously strong. DOGE survives because of "anti-seriousness"—in a space where everyone talks about technical narratives and financial narratives, it focuses on emotions, jokes, and "we're just not serious," which ironically attracted the largest and most loyal group of retail investors.
So, is the "survivor" status a halo or a curse? It depends.
For LTC, it's more like a curse. It is indeed alive but increasingly marginalized. No spot in ETFs, no role in DeFi, and no Layer 2 narrative. When the market talks, it’s always described politely as "veteran" and "stable," but in reality, the funds have long moved to SOL and ETH. Its survivor status means it's trapped in the 2013 paradigm, watching wave after wave of new technology pass by.
DOGE is different; its curse and halo are intertwined. The halo is that it is the most mainstream IP in the entire crypto world, with retail recognition possibly even higher than ETH; the curse is that it can never shake off the original sin of "living by hype." When Musk is silent, DOGE’s price is like a kite with a broken string. It has no ecosystem, no practical use case, relying entirely on sentiment to survive. This survivor status makes it a paradise for speculators and a nightmare for value investors.
In the end, among the graveyard of coins from 2013, DOGE and LTC climbed out not because they did something right, but because each hit on a completely different survival path: LTC relies on "boring equals safe," DOGE relies on "absurdity equals power." But in this industry, living too long is sometimes not a badge of honor but a reminder—you might still be standing on the shore watching when the next wave comes.Institutions are quietly outgrowing the retail-driven crypto narrative, and the data confirms it. Wintermute recently reported that institutions now account for 72% of its spot OTC flow, up from 59% a year ago. That's a meaningful shift in who's actually setting price on large trades.
This week adds more evidence. MARA pledged 18,750 $BTC, worth roughly $1.2 billion, as collateral for $600 million in financing, rather than selling. That's a balance-sheet decision, not a trading one, and it signals confidence in holding through volatility instead of realizing gains. Meanwhile, weekly ETF inflows hit $844 million for $BTC and $244 million for $ETH, the strongest ETH inflow week since April.
Liquidity is also consolidating in derivatives. $HYPE's Hyperliquid open interest has climbed to roughly $10.7 billion, well ahead of competing perpetual DEXs, showing traders are concentrating activity rather than spreading it across venues. That's efficient for liquidity, but it also means shocks could hit harder if sentiment turns.
The overhang is regulatory. The Crypto Clarity Act's delay to September keeps assets like $XRP, $ONDO, and $LINK sensitive to policy risk, even as $BTC and $ETH absorb inflows regardless. $SOL, $AVAX, $SUI, and $HYPE remain more insulated, since their momentum is tied to usage and derivatives activity rather than pending legislation.
Watch whether ETF inflows stay strong through the CPI print, and whether OTC concentration keeps building or reverses.
Do you think institutional dominance in OTC flow makes this market more stable, or just quieter before the next move?[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Don't start shouting "the trend is changing, the sky is falling" every time there's a dip, as if the Egyptian pyramids are about to collapse. BTC just touched 65200, then dropped back to 64300—so what? Did the whales run away?
Pharaoh thinks with his toes and tells you: don't panic, I've seen this play eight hundred times.
To put it simply, this is the classic "good news fully priced in, better to run first" scenario, combined with the traditional "CPI eve, usual scare tactics" performance.
Think about it, BTC charged from 62000 to 65000 like it had Red Bull, a sprint of over 3000 dollars in one go. This isn't running, it's a 100-meter dash! When it hit 65000, look at that, all the "brotherhood" trapped in losses from previous months are staring eagerly, waiting to break even and get out. Retail investors are thinking: "Finally breaking even, better run quickly, or else I'll be the loser again!"
Plus, with the big CPI announcement tomorrow, who isn't scared? Everyone is hiding their money like a turtle withdrawing into its shell. Who dares to go all in before the data comes out? Getting hit a bit is totally normal.
Pharaoh will highlight three key points, listen carefully:
1. US stocks and gold are rising, but BTC is just lying flat here. What does that mean? It means the foreigners aren't interested in FOMO in the crypto space right now; funds are flowing out.
2. Market sentiment is still crouching in the "fear" corner. A real bull market vibe is "greedy to the point of insomnia," but now everyone is "fearful to the point of insomnia," totally different.
3. The CPI sword is hanging overhead. If the data is high, rate hike expectations will resurrect again. Who dares to bet on direction now? That's not bravery, that's martyrdom.
Wait for the pullback to stabilize, the golden pit to solidify its bottom, then go in properly! $BTC $ETH $BICO #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ I really thought $ETH was different this time
Holding at 1900 for so long
I thought this was truly a strong support level.
Every day when watching the market
It gives off a certain feeling.
When others fall, it doesn’t fall much.
Even when the news is bad, it can hold up.
At one point, it even made me think
This time ETH might really run an independent rally.
But looking back.
Wow.
Turns out it’s not strong.
It’s just creating a "bottom confirmation" illusion for the market.
After more people chase in
It gets smashed down again.
——
Actually, after trading for so long, I found a pattern.
The most dangerous time
Is not when no one is bullish.
But when everyone starts to believe a certain level is absolutely safe.
1900 is exactly like that.
The longer it consolidates
The stronger everyone’s psychological defense becomes.
They think it can’t fall below here.
They think institutions will catch the fall.
They think ETF funds will support it.
But the market never becomes truly safe
Just because everyone thinks it is.
——
The core behind this drop
Is not any single piece of news.
But that capital sentiment is starting to shift.
Earlier, expectations of rate cuts heated up
Risk assets rebounded.
Many funds bought the dip accordingly.
But when the price can’t break through further
Short-term funds start to withdraw.
Rises rely on expectations.
Falls rely on disappointment.
Once expectations are dashed
Corrections often come quickly.
——
The biggest problem for $ETH now
Is not how much it has fallen.
But that the trend has returned to a weak range.
Previously, 1900 was a sign of bullish confidence.
Now 1900 has become a level that needs to be broken again.
If a short-term rebound can’t hold above 1850
It means buying hasn’t fully returned.
Focus next on the 1780 to 1800 area.
If this area breaks again
Market sentiment may deteriorate further.
——
$BTC is even more obvious.
Recently it has been oscillating between 64000 and 65000.
Many are waiting for a breakout.
But volume hasn’t expanded to break through.
This kind of movement easily tests patience.
Bulls feel they’re just missing a chance.
Bears feel the top is getting closer.
In the end, usually a big candlestick decides the direction.
If it breaks below 64000
The market may retest around 62000.
——
$SOL is actually quite interesting this round.
During the earlier rise
On-chain activity and capital heat clearly increased.
Many started discussing ecosystem opportunities again.
But the problem is
SOL has always been an emotion amplifier.
When the market is good, it rises sharply.
When the market hesitates
Funds also tend to reduce positions first.
So its future performance
Depends largely on overall market risk appetite.
——
The recent adjustment in $SNDK
Actually served as a wake-up call for the market.
The biggest problem in the AI sector now
Is not lack of demand.
But the market has already priced in part of the growth for the next few years.
When an industry moves from the "imagination stage" to the "validation stage"
Capital focus shifts from stories
to real profits.
So even with excellent performance
Funds may still take profits.
This is the most common rhythm for growth stocks.
——
Looking back now.
1900 isn’t impossible to hold.
But you can’t treat a short-term support
As a bottom that will never be broken.
The biggest trap in the market
Is to let you relax your guard when you feel most comfortable.
This time ETH demonstrated it again.
When it rises, it makes you afraid to miss out.
When it falls, it makes you question everything.
——
Currently, I still hold the same view.
Until the trend truly changes.
Don’t easily buy the dip against the trend.
Especially in this kind of choppy market.
Patiently wait for a clear direction.
That’s more important than rushing to prove yourself.
If a bull market really comes
It won’t be proven by just holding 1900.
It will be shown by a sustained upward structure to everyone.
At this stage.
Bears still hold the initiative at least.
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？
#标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 $XAU
Let's talk about gold
The short- to mid-term bottom has already appeared, and a rebound can be opportunistically made
In June and July, the Fed rate hike expectations were fully priced in, with the market once pricing a 100% rate hike in September, causing gold to hit bottom
Now, there are two main reasons causing gold to bottom and rebound:
1️⃣ Rate cut expectations rise
Non-farm payroll data underperformed, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September. The panic-driven rate hikes in the first half of the year are no longer a factor restraining gold
When the market's rate hike expectations were fully priced in, gold happened to bottom in July
2️⃣ Central banks buying gold again (see Figure 2)
Central banks worldwide are trading gold in waves by buying low and selling high. It can be seen that at the end of last year and early this year, when gold was high, the increase in central bank gold reserves was minimal
In June and July, when gold was low, the increase in gold reserves surged
Therefore, the gold price around $4000 in June and July is very cost-effective
3️⃣ Analysis from the K-line (see Figure 3)
In January and February this year, gold had a single-day drop exceeding 20%, with a very obvious spike
This spike point was at 4050, and gold has been oscillating around 4050 for the past two months
A sharp drop to a low point in a bull market trend often has huge support, and since it has oscillated near this point for a long time, the support here is very strong
So, the best entry point for gold is near 4050
Currently, gold is still mainly for swing trading (taking profit at 4800 is appropriate). It is not expected to break new highs. If it breaks 4400 and you chase gold, the cost-effectiveness will be much lower In recent days, many altcoins have started to rise. Most people psychologically think this is a signal that the main market is starting. How to put it? Before the technical gap is filled and before the bulls are cleared, any start can be seen as a bull trap. Moreover, the ones pumping are altcoins that no one plays with; meme leaders like Pepe haven't started yet. It is expected that there will be another 20% to 30% drop. This is the most basic judgment of the main market. You can imagine Bitcoin reaching 50,000; these altcoins seem low now but actually have room to go lower. Many people ask if altcoins still have a chance. I think there will be a wave of rally before the New Year. According to my logical reasoning, from October to December this year, the rally will mainly be driven by Bitcoin starting, and the old altcoins will follow. Why do I think it will rise after October? First, several conditions must be met: the technical side needs to fill the 49,000 gap from August to September. As long as this is filled during this period, there will be another wave of technical demand and rally. Second, on the fundamental side, it depends on whether there will be a rate hike in September (I expect a 25 basis point increase). This Wednesday's CPI data can be observed (it should be bearish). The last non-farm payroll data was unexpectedly weak and seemed fake, still acting. When the bearish factors in September are all out and the 49,000 technical gap is filled, the next stage will be a rebound rally. Here, I want to emphasize a very important point!BlockInfinity Evening Market Report · SPCX Negative News Fully Priced In, Short Squeeze Drives Uptrend, Short Covering Fuels the Market, Unlocking and Cash Burn Issues Still a Sword Hanging Overhead
Risk Warning: This is only an informational logic summary and does not constitute any investment advice. US stocks are highly volatile, and short selling or high-stakes trading in individual stocks carries extreme risk.
🌍 Macroeconomic Environment
The US stock market overall remains in a volatile pattern, with increasing divergence in the AI growth sector. Some high-stakes thematic stocks have experienced extreme moves. SPCX is approaching its IPO issue price of $135, showing a counterintuitive short squeeze rally; meanwhile, the market also saw a brutal case of BICO plummeting 49% in a single day, highlighting the stark polarization in thematic stocks.
One easily overlooked but strong market signal: The market previously unanimously expected the unlocking to bring a trillion-level sell-off pressure, but in reality, after the unlocking, the stock price surged 23% in two days, increasing market cap by over 327 billion. To translate: After the earnings report, the stock price had already dropped to a historic low of $104.85, and pessimistic expectations were fully priced in. The negative news was fully absorbed, turning into a "negative fully priced in" scenario, combined with massive short positions triggering a short squeeze-driven short covering rally.
From the chip structure perspective, SPCX's short positions reach $24.6 billion, exceeding Tesla's short scale, with 16% of tradable shares sold short. During the price rebound, shorts were forced to cover, and the covering buying further pushed prices up, forming a positive feedback short squeeze. Short forces remain present, but the chip environment is increasingly unfavorable to shorts.
Next key timing variable: There are 10 trading days left until the second batch unlocking window on August 20. The $135 IPO pricing level becomes the short-term critical checkpoint: holding above this level could extend the short squeeze rally; failure to break through poses a significant risk of pullback.
Fundamental signals show contradictions: Revenue in the earnings report was 7.8 billion, AI business losses narrowed, but capital expenditure was 18.37 billion, a year-on-year surge of 550%. Citibank gave a target price of $220, but the premise for this high valuation to hold is a significant slowdown in subsequent capital expenditure and cash burn; otherwise, the valuation will remain under pressure.
Comparison with other market targets: SNDK remains in a sideways range near 1200; BICO experienced a 49% single-day plunge, a huge loss case in thematic stocks, reminding the market of the risks in high-stakes sectors.
The market spillover is very real: SPCX's recent rise is not entirely due to fundamental breakthroughs; the core drivers are negative news fully priced in + massive short covering + new story expectations, belonging to sentiment + chip-driven market action. The weakness of chip-driven rallies is that once short covering completes and the second batch unlocking sell pressure arrives, the market can quickly reverse.
Key points to closely monitor: 1. The gain or loss at the $135 IPO threshold; 2. The actual sell pressure from the second batch unlocking on August 20, and whether subsequent capital expenditure can contract.
Scenario Simulation
1. Optimistic Scenario: Holding above $135, shorts continue to cover, extending the upward trend, attacking institutional target price ranges.
2. Base Scenario: Attempt to break $135 fails and pulls back, entering a consolidation phase awaiting the test of the second batch unlocking.
3. Pessimistic Scenario: The second batch unlocking brings actual sell pressure combined with worries about cash burn, causing the stock price to re-enter a correction. 122 projects. This is the number of virtual asset projects that have ceased operations, permanently shut down, or directly filed for bankruptcy liquidation from March to early August this year, as counted by the on-chain data agency RootData. On this lengthy death list, there are Layer 2 networks once valued at hundreds of millions of dollars, once-popular decentralized lending protocols, and Web3 infrastructure projects boasting various innovations.
This is by no means a pessimistic signal of a market peak; on the contrary, it is a very healthy and inevitable deflationary purge of the industry’s overinflated infrastructure supply over the past two years.
If we rewind to the last funding boom, as long as your whitepaper mentioned modular, high-performance Layer 2 networks or decentralized AI computing power, you could secure tens of millions of dollars in early-stage investment before the testnet even launched, and issue tokens with fully diluted valuations in the billions. This was a typical self-reinforcing game: VCs bought early allocations of overvalued tokens with money, projects used the raised funds to fabricate on-chain data and fake daily active users, then hoped retail investors in the secondary market would take over tokens upon unlock, completing the funding loop.
But faced with real demand, this castle built on storytelling could not last.
Today’s crypto market faces the most severe infrastructure overcapacity. The Ethereum ecosystem is crowded with many similar general-purpose Layer 2 networks whose operating mechanisms are almost identical. Their tokens, aside from governance and staking, have no real economic utility. The genuine transaction demand across the entire network cannot support the daily operation of hundreds of public chains. Without real ecosystem users and without self-sustaining fee revenue, these projects can only continuously consume inventory tokens to subsidize liquidity or rely on successive VC funding to survive. When retail investors in the secondary market grow completely tired of tokens with high fully diluted valuations being dumped, and VCs tighten their wallets due to lack of exit channels, this pretend prosperity of a game of hot potato simply cannot continue.
I previously interacted with a privacy-focused Layer 2 network for a few days. Honestly, after bridging my funds over, when I opened their official ecosystem list, apart from two or three rough-interface, low-liquidity swap protocols, the entire network was empty. I couldn’t find a single decentralized application that attracted me to stay, nor any valuable data flow. Looking at that dead blockchain explorer, I had only one thought: this infrastructure, completely turned into a ghost town, what use does it have for the industry’s development besides providing VC targets for token unlock dumps? Its shutdown and collapse are not accidental but the inevitable result of logical forces at work.
The ruthless market elimination of a large number of poor-quality infrastructures lacking self-sustaining ability is actually a tonic for the industry’s maturation. When the tide recedes, those platforms with real capital turnover efficiency, genuine protocol net income, and stable user retention will reclaim capital and attention.
Although I firmly believe this brutal elimination is a necessary path for the industry to shed its dross, I also ask myself a possibly overlooked risk blind spot: if the mass collapse of startups ultimately leads to collective loss of confidence in the developer ecosystem, driving a new generation of technical talent completely away from this market, then how deep will the bottom of this ruthless purge be dragged?
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Sisters!
From a 77% floating profit on the first order to closing all positions today, what have I been through?
I have closed all positions and now I am going short on Dogecoin!
The account is clean. The last $BICO long position closed, doubling the profit.
The $SNDK short position was cut with an 18-point loss. One win and one loss, it all comes down to a wasted effort.
It's false to say I'm not reluctant.
I held BICO from 0.025 to 0.047, with a peak floating profit close to 90 points but didn’t exit, finally only taking out half the profit.
That's how people are: wanting to earn more when winning, wanting to hold on to recover losses, but in the end, it’s all in vain.
But the feeling of clearing the account is quite good. Starting fresh.
Then I focused on DOGE.
Current price 0.06968, all moving averages are clustered together, sideways for almost a month.
On August 7th, the hourly chart just showed a "death cross" with the 50-period MA crossing below the 200-period MA.
The weekly chart also showed a death cross, the first since 2023. Price is 14% below the 50-day SMA and 22% below the 200-day SMA.
Global long-short position ratio shows net longs at 73.1%, ratio 2.72. Binance Futures "smart money" is even more extreme, net longs 77.6%, position ratio 3.46.
Retail investors are buying, big players are buying, with so many bullish, who will take the baton? The spot market tells a different story, with spot sellers’ real-time volume exceeding buyers by $8.2 million.
Long-biased positions and net spot selling—historical experience shows the side with more people usually gets liquidated.
There’s a big risk. Dogecoin spot ETF recorded its first net outflow in July, $520,000. Institutions are withdrawing, retail is rushing in. Someone opened a 40x short at 0.071; I’m cautious, 3x is enough. Short near 0.07, stop loss at 0.074, target 0.065. The risk-reward ratio is favorable. After so long sideways, you have to pick a direction. I’m betting down.
$BTC
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ ⚡ WHY SOLANA’S CULTURE COULD BE ONE OF ITS BIGGEST ADVANTAGES
One thing I think Solana’s leadership has done exceptionally well is supporting founders and ideas across the entire spectrum — even when an experiment looks strange, unconventional, or downright cringe. 😅
That openness gives builders permission to be weird, creative, and highly expressive.
In some ways, it reminds me of what Ethereum felt like in its early days.
And that matters.
When founders have the freedom to experiment, more ideas get tested on-chain. Most will fail, but that’s part of the process.
Because eventually, one weird experiment can become a massive on-chain game, a new financial primitive, or an entirely new crypto category.
You don’t want to decide in advance which experiments deserve to exist and which don’t.
Supporting only the “serious” ideas can actually discourage innovation and alienate builders.
The goal should be to maximize the number of experiments happening.
More experiments → more discoveries → new products → liquidity → users.
🔥 **The best ecosystems aren’t necessarily the ones that predict the next big thing.
They’re the ones that create an environment where the next big thing has a chance to emerge.**
$SOL #CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases While attention stays fixed on Wednesday's CPI print, a quieter supply-side risk is building underneath it: this week carries one of the heaviest token-unlock calendars in months, led by YZY releasing roughly 23% of its circulating supply, alongside sizable unlocks for $AVAX, $APT, and Pump.fun. Unlock events like this rarely move price alone, but they matter most when liquidity is already thin, and derivatives open interest data shows exactly that kind of thinning: capital is concentrating into fewer venues, with Hyperliquid's perpetual DEX open interest now near $10.7B, far ahead of $HYPE's closest competitors.
That combination, concentrated derivatives liquidity plus a heavy unlock week, creates asymmetric risk for lower-cap tokens with active vesting schedules, even if $BTC and $ETH stay range-bound on macro anticipation. Meanwhile, steady ETF inflows into $BTC and $ETH, alongside institutional stablecoin moves like Samsung's planned wallet integration, suggest large-cap capital is behaving defensively rather than rotating into altcoins like $XRP, $ONDO, $LINK, $SUI, or $DOGE right now.
The unlock overhang could be the week's real volatility driver, not CPI. Do you agree unlock supply is being underweighted relative to macro catalysts this week?#Bitcoin ETF weekly net inflow of $853 million
This data gets my blood boiling!
$853 million! Five consecutive days of net inflow! Setting a single-week inflow record since April! Has the market finally come to its senses?
Do you know what's the most outrageous? BlackRock alone swallowed $694 million, accounting for 80% of the total inflow! This isn't just capital inflow, it's institutions scrambling to accumulate! And the positive fund flow for five consecutive days is the first time in 15 weeks, completely ending the previous bleak situation of over $8.2 billion outflow in eight consecutive weeks.
But to be blunt, why do I feel a chill behind this?
The money is real cash coming in, but BTC price is still hovering around 64,000, grinding sideways. This is not right! The Coinbase premium, an indicator measuring US institutional demand, has been negative for 80 consecutive days. What does this mean? Most of the ETF money is more arbitrage funds playing around, not those long-term institutions blindly buying.
And there's a hidden risk — the average holding cost for short-term holders is $67,523, now the price is $64,952, meaning these people are down 3.8%. When the price rebounds near their cost line, selling pressure could come crashing down at any time.
My stance: The $850 million inflow indicates a good direction, but whether $BTC can hold above 65,000 or even higher depends on whether the spot market has real demand to follow. Prices pushed up solely by ETF buying can be wiped out by a single bearish candle.
Brothers, the scene is heating up, but don't rush to pile all your chips in. Wait until it firmly holds $65,000 with real cash before talking about faith. Do you think this ETF inflow is a signal of a bull market turnaround? Let's debate in the comments!$SPCX at $135 — do you choose to go long or short?
Before the unlock on August 6th,
everyone thought the price would crash due to the unlock.
Short sellers entered early, with 34% of the circulating shares shorted.
However, unexpectedly, there was no immediate collapse.
At this point, shorts need to cover (short sellers borrow shares from brokers to sell short; when closing the position, they need to buy back shares from the market to return to the broker).
When a large number of shorts cover simultaneously, a short squeeze begins, accelerating the stock price upward.
Retail investors see the price rising and also chase longs.
This is the reason for the current rally.
911.5 million shares available for sale have not disappeared into thin air.
More unlocks are still on the way.
I don't think Musk will buy back most of the circulating shares.
The possibility of a big surge in $SPCX within this year is low.
Shorting remains the most cost-effective strategy. When the market is so cold that no one is watching, there are big long positions on Bitcoin in CME futures.
$BTC has been hovering around 64000 for five weeks, with Binance spot trading volume continuously shrinking. Most people are waiting for a deeper dip to buy the bottom. But the latest CME futures net positions show that hedge funds and institutions have been increasing their long positions for several consecutive weeks. This position is usually negative for years because institutions typically buy spot and short futures to earn the spread. The abnormal growth in net longs can only mean that larger funds are actively going long.
Two historical signals like this are worth remembering. Last year, during the deepest retracement to 74000, hedge funds went heavily long, and the price then surged all the way to 126000. Before the last short squeeze that lasted over a month, institutions also suddenly went long futures, combined with retail investors being trapped short, leading to a nearly 30% short squeeze. The reverse signal has also been accurate: the week the price rebounded above 80000, short positions suddenly surged to four or five times the previous level. Then MicroStrategy announced its first wave of selling, triggering the largest capitulation sell-off in history, and the price dropped sharply back to just over 50000.
Now, starting from 57000, these longs are adding positions again, with numbers still rising last week. On-chain data aligns: small holders with less than 10 coins are selling, while whales with over 100 coins are buying. The volatility signal has been lit continuously longer than the previous two major rallies; the longer the momentum is compressed, the more explosive the release. As long as the price holds above 64000, there is still a chance to challenge 68000 to 71000.
No one can know the exact bottom with 100% certainty. In the final phase of the bear market, buying in batches is more practical than betting on a perfect bottom.
#Bitcoin Recently, many altcoins have started to rise. Most people psychologically think this is a signal that the main market is starting. How to put it, before the technical gap is filled and before the bulls are cleared, any start can be seen as a bull trap. Moreover, the ones pumping are altcoins that no one is playing with; meme leaders like Pepe haven't started yet. It is expected that there will still be a 20% to 30% drop. This is the most basic judgment of the main market. You can imagine Bitcoin reaching 50,000; these altcoins seem low now but actually have room to go lower. Many people ask if altcoins still have a chance. I think there will be a wave of rally before the New Year. According to my logical reasoning, from October to December this year, the rally will mainly be driven by Bitcoin starting, and the old altcoins will follow. Why do I think it will rise after October? First, several conditions must be met: the technical side needs to fill the 49,000 gap between August and September. As long as this is filled during this period, there will be another wave of technical demand rally. Second, on the fundamental side, it depends on whether there will be an interest rate hike in September (I expect a 25 basis point hike). This Wednesday's CPI data can be observed (it should be bearish). The last non-farm payroll data was unexpectedly weak and seemed fake, still acting. When the bearish factors are all out in September and the 49,000 technical gap is filled, the next phase will be a rebound rally. Here, I want to emphasize a very important thing! Remember I mentioned in a previous post about Trump's midterm elections in November? Before that, there will definitely be many positive measures to win public support. At that time, the stock market will rise, and the Bitcoin bill might also pass then. You can check the timing. $BTC and altcoins must wait until Bitcoin drops to 50,000 before making moves!When the market is so cold that no one is watching, there are big long positions on Bitcoin in CME futures.
Bitcoin has been hovering around 64000 for five weeks, with spot trading volume continuously shrinking. Most people are waiting for a deeper dip to buy the bottom. But the latest CME futures net positions show that hedge funds and institutions have been increasing their long positions for several consecutive weeks. This position is usually negative for years because institutions typically buy spot and short futures to earn the spread. The abnormal growth in net longs can only mean that larger funds are actively going long.
Two historical signals like this are worth remembering. Last year, during the deepest retracement to 74000, hedge funds went heavily long, and the price then surged all the way to 126000. Before the last short squeeze that lasted over a month, institutions also suddenly went long futures, combined with retail investors being lured into shorting, followed by a nearly 30% squeeze. The reverse signal has also been effective: the week the price rebounded above 80000, short positions suddenly surged to four or five times the previous level. Then MicroStrategy announced its first wave of selling coins, triggering the largest capitulation sell-off in history, and the price dropped sharply back to just over 50000.
Now, starting from 57000, this batch of longs is increasing their positions again, with numbers still rising last week. On-chain data aligns: small holders with fewer than 10 coins are selling, while whales with over 100 coins are buying. The volatility signal has been lit continuously for longer than the previous two major rallies; the longer the momentum is compressed, the more explosive the release. As long as the price holds above 64000, there is still a chance to challenge 68000 to 71000.
No one can know the exact bottom with 100% certainty. In the final phase of the bear market, buying in batches is more practical than betting on a perfect bottom.
#Bitcoin #BTC BIP-110 fork stalled after 8 hours, Bitcoin's true moat is still consensus
The outcome after launch is actually more interesting than the debate itself.
The chain supporting the fork mined only 2 blocks about 8 hours after launch, then basically stalled, with the gap from the Bitcoin mainnet continuously widening. This result indicates one thing:
In the Bitcoin ecosystem, technical solutions are not the decisive factor; what truly determines rule changes is community consensus.
My view is: I believe the failure of BIP-110 does not mean the "inscription restriction" direction has no value, but rather that any proposal to change Bitcoin's underlying rules must gain sufficiently broad support from miners, nodes, and users.
This is also the biggest difference between Bitcoin and many other blockchains.
Many projects can quickly upgrade through foundation or team voting, but Bitcoin has no centralized manager. If you want to change the rules, you have to face the entire ecosystem's game.
The core controversy of BIP-110 is actually not just about inscriptions.
Supporters believe that a large amount of non-financial data written into blocks occupies block space, increases transaction costs, and affects Bitcoin's efficiency as a value storage network.
Opponents worry that artificially restricting certain transaction types might undermine Bitcoin's long-standing principles of openness and neutrality.
Both viewpoints have merit.
But the final deciding factors are reality:
Is there enough hash power support?
Are there enough nodes running?
Do enough users recognize it?
If the answer is no, even if the code is released, it is very difficult to truly change the main chain.
I think the biggest lesson this event gives the market is:
Bitcoin's greatest value is not just the 21 million supply cap, but that it has a governance mechanism that is difficult for a few to change.
Of course, this mechanism also means reduced efficiency.
Slow upgrades, many disputes, and long consensus formation cycles are costs Bitcoin must bear.
But in the long run, it is precisely this "difficulty to change" that makes the market believe it will not be easily controlled by any single organization.
So for BTC investment, I will not change my long-term judgment because of a single fork failure or ecosystem dispute.
Short-term focus is on market sentiment; long-term focus remains on three things:
First, whether network security continues to strengthen;
Second, whether global capital continues to recognize BTC as a non-sovereign asset;
Third, whether the Bitcoin ecosystem can continue to develop while maintaining core principles.
The eventual stalling of BIP-110 may just be a governance experiment.
But it once again proves one thing:
In the Bitcoin world, changing code is easy, changing consensus is hard. What truly decides the future is never a single proposal, but whether the entire ecosystem is willing to move in that direction together.
#比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足 $BTC Why is the selling pressure being "mitigated"?
- Gradual unlocking: Implemented in nine stages in batches to avoid a one-time shock.
- First batch on August 6: Only about 20% released, approximately 1.8 billion shares, not the full 9.115 billion shares.
- Subsequent batches: About 7% released on each of August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 26.
- After Q3 earnings: Expected to release about 28% more.
- 180-day expiration: Early December 2026, all remaining shares not unlocked early will be fully unlocked.
- Musk's lock-up: About 42% of shares locked until June 2027, not participating in early staged unlocking.
Short sellers remain, but "crowded shorting" brings a short squeeze risk
- Short position size: About 219 million shares, approximately 34% of the float, with a nominal value around $25 billion.
- Position increase: Rapidly rose from about 23.3 million shares at IPO to 219 million shares.
- Paper profits: After the price pullback, shorts have about $7 billion in unrealized gains.
- Short squeeze risk: If actual selling is less than expected, it may trigger short covering and push a rebound.
How you should track it
- Monitor selling data: Follow SEC Form 4 to track insiders' actual selling scale and pace.
- Watch stock price and volume: If the price rises instead of falling on subsequent unlock dates, beware of a short squeeze; if volume increases with price decline, selling pressure dominates.
- Check institutional ratings and target prices: Most institutions remain bullish, with an average target price around $221.
- Look at valuation support: Morgan Stanley believes the $100 level already fairly reflects pessimistic expectations.
My view
The market withstood the August 6 unlocking wave; the stock price didn’t collapse but rose. However, this doesn’t mean the following rounds will also hold—the unlocking batches each represent new supply shocks.
Why "withstood in August" doesn’t mean "will withstand later"
After the first batch unlocking on August 6, the stock price actually surged, mainly due to trading dynamics (short squeeze), not fundamental strength:
- Shorts were squeezed: Before unlocking, short interest was as high as 34%. When the price stabilized slightly, the large short positions were forced to buy back to avoid losses, creating a "buying as price rises" loop.
- "Can sell" doesn’t mean "must sell": Unlocking only grants the right to sell. When the price is relatively low, some early investors choose to "hold back," resulting in actual selling pressure being less than the theoretical "hundreds of billions market cap."
Key difference: For the September and October unlockings, the market will no longer have the "bad news fully priced in" expectation gap, nor can it rely on "short covering" to absorb selling pressure. The price action will fully depend on real buyer demand and insiders’ willingness to cash out.
The real test: The "supply flood" in September and October
The upcoming unlocking scale is not only large but structurally more complex:
- Monthly supply increase: On August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 26, about 319 million shares unlock each month, totaling about 700 million shares over two months.
- "Massive impact" after Q3 earnings: After Q3 earnings release (expected early November), 28% of locked shares (about 1.276 billion shares) will unlock at once. This is a more intense shock than the first batch in August, and the market will price in this expectation in September-October.
Operational advice: Why "waiting for chip stability" is the optimal strategy
At the current stage, "not heavy positions, wait and see" is the most cost-effective strategy for these reasons:
- Valuation is in a "Schrödinger state": Viewed by short-term losses, it’s expensive; viewed by future AI computing power/Starlink monopoly, it has imagination space. When chips flood in, the market tends to trade "short-term negatives" (selling pressure) first.
- Avoid being the "bag holder": Insiders’ cost basis is extremely low, and their selling willingness is not influenced by whether the secondary market is "cheap." Early in unlocking, selling pressure is continuous, and entering too early risks buying at the "mid-slope."
- Wait for clear signals: Only after a subsequent unlocking batch lands and the stock price rises instead of falling can it be confirmed that selling pressure has been absorbed by the market. At that time, entering on the right side is far more certain than bottom-fishing on the left side now.Fireplace团队正式官宣，预测市场以及交易终端即将关闭，网站会运营到9月30日23:59（UTC时间）。留给用户的处理窗口还有接近两个月，这件事也给火爆的预测市场赛道浇了一盆冷水。 按照官方通知，所有用户必须在截止时间之前完成三件事：平掉手里全部持仓、把资金全部提取出来、导出自己的账户数据。一旦过了9月30日，网站直接下线，后续再想提币、处理头寸就没有渠道了。 比较有意思的一点，项目并没有直接销毁全部技术成果。团队对外放出信号，如果有其他团队想要接手继续做预测市场，可以主动联系他们，官网已经整理开放相关技术资料，相当于把整套技术栈对外寻找接盘方。 最近预测市场叙事炒得很热，Polymarket流量暴涨，市场不少人觉得这是下一个爆发赛道，资金疯狂涌入相关小币。但Fireplace的关停，暴露这个赛道现实的残酷一面。 看着流量热闹，但实际要活下去障碍非常多。一方面合规压力巨大，预测市场很容易触碰博彩、衍生品监管红线；另一方面，赛道竞争内卷严重，用户高度集中在头部平台，中小项目很难抢到足够交易量，收入撑不起团队持续运营。叙事再火爆，没有真实可持续现金流，项目就很难扛住周🗺️ MY SIMPLE CRYPTO MARKET MAP
This is how I currently view the crypto ecosystem. 👀
What do you think? Let me know in the comments.
Instead of looking at crypto as a random list of tickers, think of it as an interconnected network of different technologies and financial layers.
🟢 Financial Layer — DeFi
$AAVE $UNI $JUP
🔵 Blockchain Layer — Layer 1s
$ETH $SOL $SUI $AVAX
🔴 Asset Layer — RWA & Tokenization
$ONDO $PAXG
🟣 Scaling Layer — Layer 2s
$ARB $OP $STRK
🟠 Computing Layer — AI & Decentralized Compute
$TAO $RENDER $FET
🟡 Monetary Layer — Scarcity & Digital Money
$BTC $LTC $XMR
Of course, these categories aren’t completely separate. Some projects serve multiple roles and can benefit from several narratives at once.
That’s the key.
Crypto isn’t just a collection of isolated tokens.
It’s an interconnected ecosystem where liquidity, infrastructure, applications, assets, scaling, computing, and monetary networks all influence each other.
Once you understand how these sectors connect, it becomes much easier to understand where narratives are forming — and where capital may rotate next.
🧠 Don’t just memorize the tickers.
Understand the architecture.
$BTC $ETH#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases $SOL This target is still very accurate, 75.8
The lowest hit 75.78, those who understand Lao Mao's strength know! Today's mainstream strategies have all reached their targets.
#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ $BTC $ETH #黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？
Gold has risen, so why hasn't BTC followed?
The correlation between these two assets is breaking down. Gold's logic chain is short: when interest rate expectations shift and the dollar weakens, it immediately bounces. BTC's chain is much longer; liquidity must first flow into risk assets, then the crypto market's internal liquidity must recover, with more than one layer in between.
Additionally, BTC is still digesting a lot: the CLARITY Act hasn't been implemented, stablecoin liquidity is contracting, and mining companies are still offloading. Macro tailwinds have to pass through several hurdles.
For traders, the core value of this situation isn't "why gold rose but BTC didn't," but that it provides a reference point—if the gold price breakout can sustain, it will eventually drive liquidity overflow into risk assets. BTC will be one of the beneficiaries, just with a slower rhythm.
In short, gold is pricing in rate cut expectations, while BTC is still waiting for its own catalyst. The two assets are currently going their separate ways, but liquidity will eventually transmit.
Just wait. Gold rising is a good thing, but it doesn't mean BTC will immediately follow. Wednesday's CPI is the real direction.
What do you all think?
$BTC $ETH $XAUT Key points: Some thoughts on this altcoin season:
Playing this altcoin cycle with the logic of the last altcoin cycle will inevitably lead to a mental breakdown.
1. What people think altcoin season is:
1) Like the last cycle, all coins rise, whether new or old coins
2) The increase matches the last cycle's scale, only then is it called a rise, only then is it called altcoin season
In fact, many altcoin sectors in this bull market are already relatively large. If you haven't made money, it's because:
1) You missed the rhythm and missed the explosive sectors
2) You entered late, with high cost basis
For example, if you bought wld at 9u or ordi at 70u and call them trash, saying there's no altcoin season, look at how much they have risen from the bottom. Why didn't you buy earlier?
These two altcoins belong to local hotspot altcoin seasons.
Those holding old coins shouldn't expect all old coins to reach or even break previous highs; not every coin is inj.
Most old coins have already exited the historical stage, but in the final phase of the bull market, they will still spike to show respect to the bull market.
The core of local hotspot altcoin seasons: narratives important for bull market speculation.
So altcoins that can complete the bull market cycle tasks:
1) Old coins: concentrated chips, project teams still working, able to keep up with market hotspots, timely alignment, marketing hype.
2) New coins: concentrated chips, no trapped holders, have undergone some time of consolidation.
3) Listing on major exchanges, which is a prerequisite for sustained market momentum.
2. We need to see reality clearly:
1) The number of altcoins is several orders of magnitude more than in 2021, and market cap as well.
2) The overall increase in each bull market cycle is declining.
3) Even with this round of interest rate cuts, the scale is likely smaller than in 2020.
4) The liquidity from rate cuts will still only flow into hotspot projects.
This altcoin season is still following bull market logic; local hotspot seasons will continue to emerge, but won't repeatedly hype just one hotspot; rotation will still occur.
Rate cuts won't bring a broadly rising altcoin season; they will only make hotspot seasons hotter!
New funds keep entering, making local hotspot altcoins rise more (but still won't have the explosive power of the last bull market altcoins), liquidity strengthens, and the retreat won't be as fast as now but will slow down gradually.
Hotspots rotate like this, which is basically no different from altcoin season. As long as you're not foolish and don't hold altcoins like sushi or crv all the time, you can at least rotate into gains.
The era of lying flat and making money is over; smart holders will make more money in the bull market than those who just act.$BTC MARA sold 23,093 BTC in the first half of the year! Major shift in listed mining companies' holding strategies
August 10
Data shows that in the first half of 2026, MARA sold a total of 23,093 BTC, with a total transaction value of about $1.6 billion, at an average selling price of $70,631 per BTC.
As of the end of June, MARA still holds 35,577 BTC, with a market value of approximately $2.3 billion at current prices.
The market has previously focused more on MARA's Bitcoin inventory growth, overlooking its large-scale selling behavior. This indicates a clear strategic change among leading listed mining companies: no longer simply hoarding mined coins, but actively selling treasury BTC to cope with high capital expenditures, repay debts, optimize corporate capital structure, and simultaneously invest in AI computing power and energy infrastructure transformation businesses.
Key information breakdown
1. Selling background: Increased mining operational pressure after halving
After Bitcoin halving, block rewards are halved, while mining companies face high electricity costs, equipment expenses, and new infrastructure capital expenditures. Relying solely on mining cash flow can no longer cover expansion needs. MARA has shifted from "pure hoarding" to a mixed treasury strategy of hoarding plus opportunistic selling, realizing gains at high prices to improve the balance sheet, using some funds to repay convertible bond debt and invest in AI data center construction.
In March alone, MARA sold 15,133 BTC in a single transaction worth about $1.1 billion, the largest sale in the first half.
2. Not a full exit, inventory remains substantial
Although 23,093 BTC were sold in six months, MARA still holds 35,577 BTC, remaining one of the world's leading Bitcoin corporate treasuries. This shows it is not bearish on Bitcoin but managing liquidity at the corporate level.
3. Industry snapshot: More listed miners selling inventory coins
Not only MARA, but several US-listed mining companies have sold existing BTC inventories this year. They are no longer just selling newly mined coins daily but directly moving historical holdings, marking an important new change this cycle.
Real market impact
- Short term: The sales completed in the first half represent realized selling pressure and will not directly crash the current market.
- Medium-term risk: If the strategy of "selling treasury BTC at high prices" continues, each Bitcoin rally may face selling pressure from miners.
- Hedging forces: Continuous inflows into spot ETFs and some listed companies' ongoing accumulation will offset supply pressure from miners. Ultimately, the market depends on the balance between institutional buying and miner selling.
Important distinction: Miner selling ≠ immediate sharp decline; but it means the market has a supply group that sells on rallies, which is a key on-chain indicator to track long-term.
Summary
MARA's data reminds the market that in a bull market at high levels, listed miners treat treasury Bitcoin as corporate cash assets for management.
On one side, ETF institutions keep buying; on the other, miners realize inventory gains at highs. These two forces continue to compete. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously track monthly selling data from miners to observe whether selling pressure will further increase.#Bitcoin ETF weekly net inflow of $853 million
This data gets my blood boiling!
$853 million! Five consecutive days of net inflow! Setting a single-week inflow record since April! Has the market finally come to its senses?
Do you know what's the most outrageous? BlackRock alone swallowed $694 million, accounting for 80% of the total inflow! This isn't just capital inflow, this is institutions scrambling to accumulate! And the positive fund flow for five consecutive days is the first time in 15 weeks, completely ending the previous bleak situation of over $8.2 billion outflow in eight consecutive weeks.
But to be blunt, why do I feel a chill behind this?
The money is real gold and silver coming in, but BTC price is still hovering around 64,000, grinding sideways. This is not right! The Coinbase premium, an indicator measuring US institutional demand, has been negative for 80 consecutive days. What does this mean? Most of the ETF money is more arbitrage funds playing around, not those long-term institutions blindly buying.
And there's a hidden risk — the average holding cost for short-term holders is $67,523, now the price is $64,952, meaning these people are down 3.8%. When the price rebounds near their cost line, selling pressure could come crashing down at any time.
My stance: The $850 million inflow indicates a good direction, but whether $BTC can hold above 65,000 or even higher depends on whether the spot market has real demand to follow. Prices pushed up solely by ETF buying can be wiped out by a single bearish candle.
Brothers, the scene is heating up, but don't rush to pile all your chips in. Wait until it truly holds above 65,000 with real money before talking about faith. Do you think this ETF inflow is a signal of a bull market turnaround? Let's debate in the comments!Recently, many altcoins have started to rise, and most people psychologically think this is a signal that the main market is starting.
How to put it, before the technical gap is filled and before the bulls are cleared, any start can be seen as a bull trap, and the ones pumping are altcoins that no one is playing with. The meme leader Pepe and others haven't started yet. It is expected that there will still be a 20% to 30% drop, which is the most basic judgment of the main market.
You can imagine Bitcoin reaching 50,000; these altcoins seem low now but actually have room to go lower. Many people ask if altcoins still have a chance. I think there will be a wave of rally before the New Year. According to my logical reasoning, from October to December this year, the rally will mainly be driven by Bitcoin starting, and the old altcoins will follow the flight. Why do I think it will rise after October?
First, several conditions must be met.
The first is that the technical side fills the 49,000 gap from August to September. As long as this is filled during this period, there will be a wave of technical demand for a rally afterward.
Second: Fundamentally, it depends on whether there will be a rate hike in September (I expect a 25 basis point hike). This Wednesday's CPI data can be observed (it should be bearish). The last non-farm payroll data was unexpectedly weak and seemed fake, still playing a show. When the bearish factors are all out in September and the 49,000 technical gap is filled, the next phase will be a rebound rally. Here, I want to emphasize a very important point!#CLARITY vote postponed to September, regulatory window delayed
The vote has been postponed. Not canceled, just moved to September.
What does this mean? It means the regulatory guillotine is temporarily hanging in mid-air, not falling. For the batch of coins named by the SEC, this is a breathing window, not a free pass.
Breaking it down.
---
$XRP: The most direct beneficiary
The SEC and Ripple case has always been a regulatory barometer. The CLARITY bill might have accelerated the judgment process, but now postponed to September, effectively giving XRP an extra month of safety. Bears dare not act rashly, bulls have a story to tell.
· Key levels: 0.50 is a psychological threshold, 0.55 is previous high resistance.
· Strategy: Hold above 0.50. Add positions if it breaks 0.55; if not, trade within the range.
---
$SOL: Regulatory pressure temporarily eased
SOL was previously named by the SEC as a security and was once hammered down to double digits. Now with the bill postponed, regulatory pressure is temporarily relieved. Coupled with on-chain activity and signs of recovery in the MEME ecosystem, it is a resilient asset.
· Key levels: Previous highs are resistance; a pullback that doesn’t break support indicates strength.
· Strategy: Do not chase highs; enter on pullbacks that hold support. Stop loss if broken.
---
$MATIC: Weakest, but with the greatest resilience
After being named by the SEC, MATIC has been the slowest to recover. Weak, but this means if the regulatory window delay triggers sector rotation, its rebound potential is actually the largest.
· Strategy: Wait for the sector leader to move first, then follow. Do not preemptively position; weak coins don’t deserve early entry.
---
Summary of actions:
· Regulatory-related coins: XRP, SOL, $MATIC, short-term bullish bias but not a trend reversal. The September vote is the next key date; before then, bulls have a story, bears have caution.
· Risk reminder: Postponement is not cancellation. Once September arrives, regulatory risks will be repriced. Don’t fall in love with regulation long-term; only trade the window period.
· Market linkage: Wednesday’s CPI is the master switch for all risk assets. Before CPI is released, control your positions; don’t relax vigilance just because the regulatory window is delayed. $BTC Bearish Divergence (Hidden)
Spot Volume running flat as Open Interest drops.
Not a good sign, especially on a U.S. Market open Monday...As of August 10, the Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) of the S&P 500 index rose to 42.39 times as of August 7, far above the long-term average of 17.40 times, only slightly below the historical peak of 44.19 times during the dot-com bubble, and exceeding the valuation level of 32.56 times before the 1929 Great Crash. Currently, it has entered the second historical extreme range where CAPE exceeds 40 times.
Analysis points out that the CAPE indicator is mainly used to measure long-term investment return expectations rather than to predict short-term market tops. Almost all historical cases of CAPE exceeding 40 times are concentrated in the 1999 to 2000 dot-com bubble period, so it cannot be simply inferred from a single bubble cycle that the U.S. stock market will inevitably enter a "lost decade" in the next ten years.
However, high valuations mean that the long-term valuation margin of error for U.S. stocks is decreasing. Future market returns will rely more on corporate earnings continuing to exceed expectations rather than further valuation expansion.
The market believes that the productivity improvements, margin enhancements, and corporate earnings growth brought by the wave of artificial intelligence (AI) may help sustain high valuations for a longer period. But if AI earnings fall short of expectations or real interest rates continue to rise, the high valuation environment may amplify market adjustment pressures.
The core signal released by CAPE is that the expected returns of U.S. stocks over the next decade may face downward pressure, but this indicator does not directly imply that the U.S. stock market is about to peak, nor can it infer that actual returns over the next ten years will necessarily be negative. $SNDK #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ I long $HOME at 0.009448. This is not an emotional long because the price is rising sharply, but a trade based on a fairly clear technical structure.
Reasons I chose to LONG HOME:
On the 15M chart, HOME has accumulated for quite a while in the 0.0094–0.0098 range. The price was repeatedly sold down but could not break the bottom, indicating that selling pressure is weakening.
The most important point is that the price has broken out of the accumulation zone and simultaneously broken the short-term downtrend line. After the breakout, the price continued to hold the 0.0100 area instead of falling back below it.
On the 1D chart, HOME is also showing signs of recovery from a strong bottom area. The price has now surpassed the Fibonacci 0.0100 level, so if it holds this area, the probability of continuing the upward move will be higher.
The next target area I expect is 0.01165. This is a nearby resistance zone and also an important target after the price escapes the accumulation zone.
Therefore, I chose the entry point at 0.009448, which is quite close to the support area instead of chasing after the price has already risen sharply.
The invalidation point of the setup is below 0.00935. If the price falls back and loses this area, the breakout structure will be broken and I accept cutting the trade.
In summary:
Entry: 0.009448
SL: 0.00935
Expected TP: 0.01165
Area to hold: 0.0100
Main reason: accumulation → breakout trendline → reclaim 0.0100 → heading towards Fibonacci/upper resistance.
What I like most about this setup is the very good R:R ratio. I don’t need the price to rise too far, just for HOME to continue holding the current breakout structure for the trade to have an advantage.
Note: this is an analysis for my setup, not a recommendation to use 20x leverage. With high leverage, even a short sweep can cause significant damage. Maji Big Brother really did get hurt this time. I just finished refreshing the Hyperliquid public address, which was around 23:20 Beijing time on August 10. The account hadn't reset to zero, and the unsold position remained, but that ETH long position had dropped from the previous outrageous 6,600 to 4,200. This is no longer just minor tweaks. Between 6,600 and 4,200 ETH, with 2,400 ETH missing in between. At a price of over $18 million, the nominal size of the position is less than $4 million. Just moments ago, they were struggling on the edge of life and death, but now the market has cut them down in a huge chunk. Currently, the outstanding position is 4,200 ETH long positions, with a 25x cross-margin ratio, an average opening price of $1,893.59, and a position value of about $7.88 million. The account equity is only $190,400, and the withdrawable balance is still zero. The most striking thing is the floating loss. Previously, he relied on a low average price to hold up a bit of unrealized profit, but now the official interface shows an unrealized loss of about $73,000. In other words, the state of comfort that just now was just on paper, which was just a comforting gesture, was gone. ETH slammed down, and Maji Big Brother's account slid from the edge of the cliff to halfway up the mountain, still clutching a rock, with hardly any path left beneath his feet. The current liquidation price is around $1868.23. At that time, ETH was priced around $1876 to $1877, just over $8 away from the liquidation line. Calculated as a percentage, it's about 0.4The macro framework for this week has basically been established. As long as the short-term rebound in energy prices is not too violent, it will basically follow this framework.
The core focus is whether the CPI data can "steal back" the expectations for a rate cut. Macro interest rates determine whether the money we hold is expensive or cheap, and also whether we dare to spend (invest).
If the CPI proves that the expectations for a rate cut will return, money will be cheap in the future, we will dare to spend, and this will drive the risk markets.
Conversely, if interest rate expectations are unfavorable and the risks in the US economy are overly exposed, then the risk markets will be relatively suppressed.
Therefore, as long as energy prices do not get out of control, the macro framework for this week is basically like this. The feedback to our trading is the choice between the start of a new trend or a further correction!
Currently, looking at market dynamics:
The bond market, the US dollar, gold, and US stocks have all shown "divergent" movements. Energy prices have rebounded in the short term, causing bond yields to rise temporarily, but the US dollar has weakened, gold remains strong, US stocks are under short-term pressure, and risk appetite is contracting.
At present, before decisive guidance emerges from macro data or the US-Iran situation, market pricing is still somewhat chaotic. Observe more! #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？