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Maji Big Brother really did get hurt this time. I just finished refreshing the Hyperliquid public address, which was around 23:20 Beijing time on August 10. The account hadn't reset to zero, and the unsold position remained, but that ETH long position had dropped from the previous outrageous 6,600 to 4,200. This is no longer just minor tweaks. Between 6,600 and 4,200 ETH, with 2,400 ETH missing in between. At a price of over $18 million, the nominal size of the position is less than $4 million. Just moments ago, they were struggling on the edge of life and death, but now the market has cut them down in a huge chunk. Currently, the outstanding position is 4,200 ETH long positions, with a 25x cross-margin ratio, an average opening price of $1,893.59, and a position value of about $7.88 million. The account equity is only $190,400, and the withdrawable balance is still zero. The most striking thing is the floating loss. Previously, he relied on a low average price to hold up a bit of unrealized profit, but now the official interface shows an unrealized loss of about $73,000. In other words, the state of comfort that just now was just on paper, which was just a comforting gesture, was gone. ETH slammed down, and Maji Big Brother's account slid from the edge of the cliff to halfway up the mountain, still clutching a rock, with hardly any path left beneath his feet. The current liquidation price is around $1868.23. At that time, ETH was priced around $1876 to $1877, just over $8 away from the liquidation line. Calculated as a percentage, it's about 0.4The macro framework for this week has basically been established. As long as the short-term rebound in energy prices is not too violent, it will basically follow this framework.
The core focus is whether the CPI data can "steal back" the expectations for a rate cut. Macro interest rates determine whether the money we hold is expensive or cheap, and also whether we dare to spend (invest).
If the CPI proves that the expectations for a rate cut will return, money will be cheap in the future, we will dare to spend, and this will drive the risk markets.
Conversely, if interest rate expectations are unfavorable and the risks in the US economy are overly exposed, then the risk markets will be relatively suppressed.
Therefore, as long as energy prices do not get out of control, the macro framework for this week is basically like this. The feedback to our trading is the choice between the start of a new trend or a further correction!
Currently, looking at market dynamics:
The bond market, the US dollar, gold, and US stocks have all shown "divergent" movements. Energy prices have rebounded in the short term, causing bond yields to rise temporarily, but the US dollar has weakened, gold remains strong, US stocks are under short-term pressure, and risk appetite is contracting.
At present, before decisive guidance emerges from macro data or the US-Iran situation, market pricing is still somewhat chaotic. Observe more! #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ $SPCX is repeatedly tugging near the $135 mark, where the initial unlocking-induced concentrated suppression and short squeeze positions form a delicate balance.
A significant rebound has appeared on the chart, with previously concentrated short positions forced to cover due to less-than-expected selling pressure release.
This sentiment recovery is based on a brief restoration of risk appetite, but the upcoming unlocking of 319 million shares on August 20 poses the next liquidity test.
After the liquidity buying from short covering is fully absorbed, whether the subsequent supply of 1.4 billion shares will translate into actual selling pressure will directly determine if the price can gain substantial support.
If trading volume steadily expands above $135 and holds that level, short covering may push the price further into the $140 to $145 range, but a breakout with volume exhaustion would signal failure of this path.
If the price falls back below $135 and triggers a second wave of selling, risk-off sentiment could quickly push the price down to support levels at $130 or even $125; a rebound that quickly absorbs selling pressure could halt the decline.
When the market's re-pricing rate exceeds the supply increase speed, the chip structure imbalance originally caused by event risk will be broken, and the current short squeeze logic will be disproven.
The most important variable to watch in the next 7 days is the direction of the 250 million shares position change in the short pool as the August 20 unlocking window approaches.
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克 #黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温$SNDK HAS THE STRONG BREAKTHROUGH STOPPED YET?
1. $SNDK price movement tonight (Monday, 08/10/2026)
Current trading price (Tonight's session): Around 1,242 USD / share.
Change: Up about +2.47% (up ~30 USD) compared to the previous closing price (1,212.21 USD).
Intraday range: Opening price from 1,203.41 USD and fluctuating between 1,194.01 USD – 1,278.75 USD.
2. Has the strong breakthrough of $SNDK stopped yet?
The short-term explosive uptrend has paused and is undergoing a deep correction, but the long-term trend still depends on the industry's outlook.
52-week high: $SNDK once set a record at 2,354.39 USD/share.
Current status: At around 1,240 USD, the stock has dropped more than 47% from its peak. Thus, the "hot" phase of continuous price pushing has temporarily paused to make way for a correction and accumulation phase. However, compared to the year's low, this stock still maintains significant growth thanks to the memory wave for AI infrastructure.
3. Why has the uptrend stalled?
Large-scale profit-taking wave: After the meteoric growth since the beginning of the year (when it was independently re-listed separated from Western Digital), investment funds and individual investors simultaneously took profits to secure gains as the stock hit the peak above 2,300 USD.
Impact of the semiconductor industry's cyclicality: The memory chip market (NAND Flash) is highly cyclical. When market sentiment fears a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending or short-term oversupply risks, memory stocks usually adjust very quickly.
Time needed to absorb valuation: The peak price has reflected almost all the most positive expectations. Current capital flow has become more cautious, waiting for breakthrough earnings results in upcoming quarters to decide whether to continue pushing the price up or not.
In summary: $SNDK has passed the initial meteoric rise phase and is currently in a cooling correction from the peak.
#CPIToResetFedBets
#AIMemorySelloffEases
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn ETF funds are flooding back crazily this week, the strongest inflow since April, and CME hedge funds have also switched from short to long positions, with institutions putting real money into the market. Corporate institutions are still continuously hoarding BTC, and Bitcoin-related bills in the US are also progressing, painting a very bullish story.
But one point must not be overlooked: the veteran whale Strategy is dumping coins to cash out, selling over a thousand BTC, prioritizing stock buybacks instead of hoarding coins.
While off-exchange funds are rushing in wildly, old chips are cashing out and leaving. The more positive news piles up, the more cautious you should be about a sell-off when the good news materializes. Don’t get blinded by the flood of bullish messages; now is not the time to blindly charge ahead. Risk control should always come first. $BTC has reclaimed and is holding above $65,000 with quiet strength.
On August 10, Bitcoin traded steadily above that level—up roughly 3% on the week, after a soft U.S. jobs report eased near-term Fed rate-hike fears. $ETH tracked higher near $1,920, $SOL stood out with ~5% weekly gains near $77, and $BNB advanced modestly. $XRP lagged as the clear underperformer among majors.
The move was driven less by headlines and more by flows. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs posted their strongest weekly inflows since April (combined ~$1.1B), led by BlackRock’s IBIT. A softer dollar and improved risk appetite helped, while the market largely ignored the CLARITY Act delay to September and minor Bitcoin-ecosystem noise.
Crypto continues to trade as a high-beta risk asset tightly linked to U.S. monetary expectations and institutional capital. When labor data softens and ETF demand returns, liquidity favors $BTC first, then rotates into liquid large-caps like $ETH and $SOL.
What to watch next?
July CPI lands Wednesday and remains the clearest catalyst. Sustained ETF inflows, dollar/yield moves, and positioning around the $65,800–$66,000 zone will decide whether this support holds or fades.If the foundation isn't solid, no matter how fancy the blueprints are, it's just a pile of scrap steel. I've been staring at the CLARITY construction plan for three months—the cloture motion submitted on August 8th was basically the load calculation report handed over by the structural engineer. But the congressional supervisors just took a holiday and ran off, dragging the load-bearing wall inspection all the way to September 15th. Now Polymarket prices the completion probability of this building at 21%. Five million dollars worth of concrete poured, and not even the basement has shown up.
In my view, this legislative delay is a classic case of "pile foundation deviation." The steel structure design of CLARITY itself is fine—it aims to clearly define fireproof zones between exchanges, DeFi, and mainstream tokens. But the core dispute is stuck on the load-bearing columns: officials' conflicts of interest in crypto are the rust on the rebar, consumer protection is the slab thickness, anti-fraud rules are the emergency exits, and yield products and stablecoins are the elevator shafts of the whole building—every floor is revising the blueprints, and the construction team and the owners' committee are arguing so much that even the safety nets aren't properly hung.
Work will resume in mid-September, and the first cloture vote will be the concrete compressive strength test. A 65% approval rate is the minimum strength grade; if not met, the entire floor must be redone. What’s more fatal than the vote itself is the problem exposed during this recess—the regulatory framework boundary has actually retreated to being decided by a single vote, like a skyscraper’s seismic rating waiting to be validated only after an earthquake. Even more ironically, the $XGOOGL stock is watching from the sidelines; its price curve reflects every delay in Washington like the glass curtain wall of the podium building—but no matter how beautiful the curtain wall is, it can’t stop the wind load tearing at the main structure.
Real architects understand that a white paper can be a rendering, but the legislative process is the construction log. Regulatory boundaries aren’t red lines drawn in CAD; they have to be snapped with chalk lines on the construction site. Right now, this building is still sitting in the foundation pit, waiting for the tower crane on September 15th to decide whether to pour concrete first or dismantle the formwork first. #clarityvotepushedtosep 2026.08.10 U.S. Stock Market Closing Scenario Forecast
$SNDK $SOXL $MU
Core Background: The market is broadly on hold, awaiting Wednesday's CPI inflation data, with major funds reluctant to take heavy directional bets; severe sector divergence, computing power shows resilience, storage sector faces the greatest profit-taking pressure.
Current Market: Opened slightly weaker, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, suppressing high-valuation storage chips; during the day, South Korea's SK Hynix surged then retreated, negative sentiment continued to affect Micron and SanDisk.
Three Closing Scenarios (ranked by probability)
Scenario 1: Fluctuate all day, close slightly down (highest probability)
Trend Path: Weak oscillation in early trading → a small rebound mid-session for repair, but rebound volume is low and highs gradually decline; difficult to recover all losses by close.
✅Market: Nasdaq closes slightly in the red;
✅Semiconductor sector:
Computing chips (NVIDIA, AMD) hold up; Micron MU and SanDisk SNDK remain weak;
✅SOXL: dragged by sector, oscillates downward;
Core Logic: Funds preemptively avoid CPI uncertainty, high-level storage chips sold on rallies, no incremental funds actively entering.
Scenario 2: Bottom out and rebound, close slightly up near flat (medium probability)
Trigger Conditions: U.S. Treasury yields continue to fall; storage sector shows clear support, no new lows.
Trend: Early panic selling release, bulls bargain at lows, oscillate upward, close slightly up.
Limitation: Hard to see a strong single-day surge, market cautious about aggressive moves, limited upward momentum.
Scenario 3: Continuous one-sided weakness, accelerated decline at close (low probability, risk scenario)
Trigger Signal: Nasdaq keeps hitting new lows, storage sector collectively lacks support, volume increases on decline.
Warning: If this occurs, it means funds anticipate a tougher CPI, tech stocks will face increased pressure in the following two days.
Targeted Forecast for Key Stocks
1. Micron MU / SanDisk SNDK (Storage)
Unlikely to see a strong rebound tonight. SK Hynix's daytime surge and profit-taking already signaled this; any rally likely triggers profit-taking.
Most probable trend: weak oscillation, rebound lacks strength.
2. SOXL (3x leveraged semiconductor long)
Pulled by sector divergence, large fluctuations;
⚠️In a weak oscillation market, leveraged funds suffer increased losses, avoid blindly bottom-fishing or holding positions.
Key Practical Monitoring Points
1. If Nasdaq holds the opening low continuously, worst case is narrow oscillation;
2. If Nasdaq breaks below the early low and fails to recover within half an hour, lean toward Scenario 3, bulls should be cautious;
3. Key observation: whether Micron can hold intraday lows, a barometer for storage sector strength.
Important Reminder
Tonight's closing trend will directly influence the opening sentiment of South Korea's SK Hynix and KR200 tomorrow and the day after.
Leverage trading should control position size; before CPI data arrives, avoid heavy bets on one-sided moves. @OKX中文 #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #OKX星球话题来啦 $SPCX
The reason for going long is also very simple
Elon Musk tweeted over the weekend, giving Starlink a vision of 2000 in annual revenue
At present, as long as the Starship reuse and v3 satellites succeed, it is highly likely to be achieved
So I think before it is completely disproved, spaceX is a very good speculation target
The first wave of unlocking a few days ago was the most dangerous, if this batch can't be dumped, 105 can be regarded as a solid bottom, the following unlocks will only affect the speed of the rise
Trading under these two assumptions, the current price close to the IPO is not expensive, chasing a rise is fine, if it goes wrong just accept it, pay for the belief 😁$BlockInfinity Evening Market Report · Major Shareholder Return Catalyst for Korean Storage, HBM Sector Sentiment Recovers but Real Concerns Remain
Risk Warning: For informational logic sorting only, does not constitute investment advice
🌍 Macro Industry Environment
Global AI computing power chain sentiment shows divergence, U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate at high levels, and the overseas tech earnings season is winding down. The storage sector sees a major event as the leading Korean storage companies plan large-scale shareholder return programs. The news directly drives a rebound in overseas storage stocks and also spills over sentiment to the domestic semiconductor storage sector. Samsung and SK Hynix stock prices receive short-term capital support.
A strong industry signal that might be overlooked: Korean companies plan shareholder return programs totaling nearly 100 trillion KRW, including about 40 trillion KRW in share buybacks, approximately 2% of total shares, with official announcement planned by the end of Q3. Translation: companies are preparing large stock buybacks to signal improved cash flow and focus on shareholder returns, alleviating market concerns about cash consumption from capital expenditures, representing a strong positive sentiment.
Reviewing this downturn, Korean storage stocks experienced a maximum short-term drawdown of about 15%, due to multiple negative factors: market rumors of Nvidia cutting HBM purchases and half-price pricing rumors (later clarified as false by JPMorgan); unclear shareholder return timelines combined with uncertainties from subsidiary IPOs; large-scale capital expenditure for capacity expansion raising concerns about cash flow depletion. After earnings reports, panic sentiment subsided, and selling pressure from Korean leveraged ETFs liquidations has been largely released. The market is awaiting a new pricing anchor.
Institutions collectively express optimistic expectations: BofA anticipates Samsung and SK Hynix to implement clear shareholder return plans; JPMorgan believes the worst phase of the industry is over and maintains overweight; Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Wolfe Research all issue bullish ratings with very high target prices.
Geopolitical and industry moves are notable: leading downstream customers are seeking diversified supply sources, and Apple is testing HBM-related products, indicating subtle changes in the supply chain landscape. The market spillover is tangible: share buybacks address valuation and confidence issues but do not mean HBM supply-demand is without variability. Diversified procurement by downstream customers introduces order allocation uncertainty, a pressure point to monitor continuously.
Current market essence: the storage sector is moving from "panic-driven valuation cuts" to sentiment recovery, driven by buyback policies rather than further product price surges. The positive factors are partially priced in and should not be simply extrapolated as continuous one-sided gains.
Operationally: in a sentiment recovery market, after positive news is realized, fluctuations will occur. Key points to follow up: the official buyback plan text at the end of Q3 and changes in HBM downstream orders and pricing.
Core Summary Points
1. ✅ Positive: Trillion-level buyback plan alleviates market cash flow concerns, liquidation selling pressure fully released, overseas investment banks collectively bullish, driving valuation recovery.
2. ⚠️ Risks: Downstream customer supply chain diversification causes variability in HBM order allocation; positives are expectation-driven, final details depend on the official plan announced at the end of Q3.
3. Transmission: Overseas storage sentiment warms, domestic storage and HBM-related industry chains receive sentiment catalysts, but fundamentals still depend on domestic manufacturers' order and profit realization. $SHOP USDT is showing one of the calmest moves on the screen. The perpetual contract is around 154.01 and is up only 0.19%. Compared with DOSUSDT's 7.97% surge and SKUUSDT's 7.43% decline, SHOPUSDT is practically flat. This suggests neither aggressive buyers nor sellers have established clear short-term dominance in the snapshot. Such low movement can mean consolidation, with traders waiting for a stronger catalyst or breakout before committing heavily. The important levels to watch are whether price begins expanding away from the current range and whether volume supports that move. For now, SHOPUSDT remains stable, but a quiet market can become active quickly once momentum arrives.
#OKXTraderVoices #SP500Eyes8000 #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn Each earnings report is more explosive than the last, yet stock prices keep crashing. SanDisk made a killing in Q4, but its stock got slashed at the knees; Hynix's HBM sold out, yet it plunged 19% in a single day; Micron's FQ4 guidance hit 50 billion, but it still got hammered 28% in July. So is this a golden opportunity or the peak of the cycle? I lean toward— the possibility of a pit hasn't been confirmed, but the signals of a peak keep coming one after another.
Let's look at three signals together.
First, Hynix itself has loosened up. On August 9, news from Korea revealed that Hynix was the first to slow down its HBM price hikes, starting to negotiate with customers at prices lower than competitors. Morgan Stanley still shouts a target price of 3.7 million KRW and says shareholder returns will exceed 100 trillion KRW by 2026, but the market smells something else: even HBM, the industry's tightest supply and highest margin product, is starting to lose pricing power. Adding to that, Huang Renxun cut Rubin Ultra's HBM configuration from 12 layers 384GB to 8 layers 192GB, slashing global HBM demand expectations by about 10%. Hynix just experienced a historic intraday 19% plunge on the Korean stock market, evaporating 308 trillion KRW in market value. Customers are cutting orders, prices are softening—do you really think the bull market is intact? I don't believe it.
Second, how long can Micron's independent rally last? Micron is indeed strong this round, with FQ3 actual revenue hitting 41.46 billion, gross margin 84.9%, FQ4 guidance directly at 50 billion, 86% gross margin, EPS 31, with an annualized EPS run-rate already above $120, HBM4 mass production, 2026 capacity sold out, data center revenue annualized run-rate breaking 100 billion—solid logic. But only three companies can make HBM, and Hynix has already started cutting prices. Can Micron stand alone? HBM is an oligopoly market; one player loosening up is a price signal. Also, Micron was hammered 28.7% in July; the current rebound looks more like an oversold correction, not a new high starting point.
Third, SanDisk's own numbers. Q4 revenue 8.97 billion (+372%), EPS 39.25, gross margin 84.6% all-time high, 93.9 billion backlog, 14 billion buyback—explosive in any sector. But the market doesn't buy it because Q1 guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion, midpoint 10.55 billion, Wall Street wants 11.15 billion; gross margin guidance 83-85%, market expects 86.7%. Jefferies is more direct, cutting target price from $3000 to $1750, citing "the fastest phase of short-term profit growth may be over." The stock fell from 2354 to 1184, a knee cut; the rebound to 1250 hasn't even touched the downtrend line.
What about $BTC? Still playing dead around 65,000. Don't laugh, it's really a sentiment indicator. BTC lying flat near 65,000, knee cut from the peak to now. AI storage, HBM, crypto are essentially high-beta assets built on this round of liquidity + tech narratives. BTC not making new highs for two months means no incremental funds are entering from outside. Under this background, storage relying on oversold rebounds to reverse lacks strength. Conversely, if SanDisk really lights the sentiment on August 13, and Micron and Hynix follow, BTC as a high-beta asset will likely be dragged along—tied to the same rope.
So is the AI memory bull market still stable? My judgment: the long-term logic remains intact, but short-term cycle peak signals are accumulating.
The long-term logic is that AI's demand for storage is structural—HBM4, DDR5, enterprise SSD, NAND long-term contracts—not just hype, real cloud providers are lining up to buy. But the short-term problem is: the best expectations are maxed out; where can an 84% gross margin go higher? HBM prices are already softening; is the NAND turning point far off? Hynix's order cuts are the first crack, SanDisk's guidance missing expectations is the second, who's next?
August 13 is the day of truth. SanDisk's CEO and CFO will come out to defend; the market wants not how much Q4 earned, but the NBM long-term contract structure, response to Hynix's order cuts, and 2027 NAND market split. Bring out hard data—1200 is a golden pit, Micron, Hynix, and BTC can all catch a breath; vague visions mean this rebound is a desperate escape wave, and there will be more steps down.
Explosive earnings but falling stock prices, peers cutting prices, BTC lying flat—do you think this is a bull market continuation or the cycle knocking at the door? $BTC
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ $SPCX This unlocking drama has just begun, and there's still a long queue behind it. The selling pressure keeps coming wave after wave, without a break.
Let's count the upcoming days on our fingers:
The batch of 911.5 million shares on August 6 was just an "appetizer." We held on, right? Don't rush—on August 20, about 319 million shares will follow closely. And that's not all; in September and October, nearly 700 million shares will be dumped each month! Combined, that's a lot more than the first batch. Plus, this nine-stage phased unlocking will continue until 2027, and Elon Musk and some major shareholders have lock-up periods lasting until June next year. When do you think this flood of chips will calm down?
Looking at the shorts, there are still over 250 million shares stuck in the short-selling pool; these guys haven't left cleanly. If insiders really start dumping shares in bulk after unlocking, shorts will get reinforcements and will smash the price more easily; but if the selling pressure isn't as fierce as expected, shorts might be forced to retreat—it's a tug of war with an uncertain outcome.
My honest opinion: The first round didn't crash and even went up, which is impressive, but don't take that as a talisman. The new supply of 1.4 billion shares over the next two months is the real test. At this price, you could say it's cheap, and over a longer period, maybe not expensive; but saying it's expensive is also reasonable since the chip tsunami hasn't receded yet. Anyway, I won't bet heavily at this critical moment. I'd rather grab a small seat and watch, waiting for the chip structure to stabilize before making a move. Rush in? Not in a hurry. Run away? Not panicking either. Patience is key; surviving the storm is what matters most.$BTC and $ETH have both hit bottom, and starting from August, they will oscillate upward. Those waiting for the final drop will eventually miss out.
Reason: From an emotional perspective,
the extreme panic low of this year's bear market appeared in February,
which is a bottom signal, as proven by BTC, SOL, and others.
From a timing perspective, the typical duration of a bear market is about one year.
BTC has been steadily declining without recovery since October 2025,
while ETH started its bear trend as early as August, falling continuously for half a year.
The acceleration in time has shortened the space, and from the retail consensus,
everyone believes there will be a final drop in October-November, which would be a perfect bottom-fishing opportunity.
According to the 80/20 rule, it is unlikely to follow this script.
I believe the bottom was reached in February, the absolute bottom in June-July, similar to the bottom in June 2022,
with six months of oscillation and the absolute bottom in November,
which means the market is about to start moving.🚨 Latest move by Michael Burry, the 2008 crash predictor:
"The SOXX rebound offers an attractive short entry point."
He added to his SOXX short position at $541.
My judgment:
This is Burry's third time adding to his semiconductor short. The previous two were around $643 and $536.
His bearish logic: SOXX's price-to-sales ratio is as high as 16 times, with valuation deviation even exceeding the 2000 internet bubble. He believes there is a bubble in AI chip demand.
📌 This time at $541, he is betting the rebound is over and the decline will continue. The Senate's failure to pass the Crypto Clarity Act before its summer recess is the story shaping sentiment this week. With only 51 of the needed 60 votes secured, the bill is now pushed to September 14, extending months of regulatory ambiguity around market structure and token classification.
This matters most for assets whose valuation thesis leans on institutional-grade clarity. $XRP, still defending the $1 level, has been the clearest laggard, unable to join the broader recovery in $BTC and $ETH. Tokenization and real-world-asset plays like $ONDO and infrastructure tokens such as $LINK are similarly sensitive, since institutional allocation often waits for defined rules before scaling exposure. Meanwhile $BTC and $ETH continue absorbing steady ETF inflows regardless, showing sentiment is bifurcating between "regulatory-dependent" and "regulatory-agnostic" assets.
The delay doesn't kill the thesis, it just pushes the timeline. $HYPE and $SUI, both benefiting from derivatives and L1 rotation narratives, remain less exposed to this specific catalyst.
With clarity now a September question, is the market underpricing the risk of another delay, or already positioned for it?#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解
SanDisk $SNDK tonight surged straight up to 1277, nearly a 100-point increase.
The volume-backed rebound at this level indicates that around 1200, there are buyers willing to take positions, and market sentiment is gradually recovering from pessimism.
The core catalyst is the Investor Day on August 13.
The biggest issue with the earnings report is the weak guidance; the market has been worried whether this is due to conservative management or if AI storage demand is truly cooling down.
The execution details of the 14 billion buyback plan have also not been clarified. Investor Day is a perfect window; this rally tonight is likely funds positioning early, betting on Investor Day delivering better-than-expected content.
The earnings report itself is not bad, with revenue of 8.97 billion, gross margin of 84.6%, and EPS of 39.25; the numbers alone show no flaws.
After nearly a week of digesting the weak guidance, the negative impact is gradually clearing.
The market is starting to reassess this earnings report, which also explains why there are buyers around 1200.
How far this rebound can go depends on two signals: whether 1200 can hold and whether Investor Day delivers better-than-expected content.
Before these two signals come out, treat this as a rebound and wait for confirmation before adjusting expectations.
$SKHYNIX $SPCX On the 13th, the CEO will explain three issues. Whether the gross margin of 84.6% can be maintained, whether long-term contracts can transform the company from a cyclical stock into "revenue-generating infrastructure," and the specific roadmap for the new HBF architecture and BI CS8 QLC.
This sharp decline is not due to a fundamental collapse but is caused by differing expectations triggering an emotional outburst. SanDisk sells storage, but the market now doesn't care about how much was earned before, but how long it can earn in the future. The 13th is the time to see if the leadership can provide this answer.
Remember, whether SanDisk can revive this time also depends on the 13th, how the leadership responds, and whether they can provide a satisfying answer for investors! $BTC $ETH $SNDK
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn The first wave of rally is always the most eye-catching, but what truly decides the outcome is the direction of the subsequent trend, which tells you exactly where the capital is headed. After watching the recent 24-hour capital flow for so long, I've actually lost interest in the tokens with the most short-term gains. What really cares about me is—who can firmly hold onto the trend after the rally? A strong +15% bullish candlestick—if volume shrinks immediately the next day and the price gives back all the gains, then this candlestick is just a fleeting passing moment, meaningless. 📉 So, the following names are worth adding to your watchlist: ⚡ $BICO $MMT $BEAT $SPCX $CAP $UB. Their problem is not whether they will "rise," but rather — will the new inflows keep entering the market or just leave after a brief stay? Looking back at the overall market background: BTC and ETH remain relatively stable, and the market has not experienced any large-scale shocks. This "steady but not fierce" state provides excellent soil for selective rotation. Funds don't need to wait for a full market explosion before acting; they can focus on specific tracks, repeatedly probe, quickly switch hands, and patiently wait for truly unique opportunities. 🟢 Target for real attention$BICO $CAP $AAVE $ONDO $LINK $TAO $WLD These coins share a common trait: when prices rise, trading volume expands in tandem, but when prices pull back, volume noticeably shrinks, showing clear data on candlestick charts4.8%. This is the proportion of Ethereum held by the US-listed company Bitmine relative to the global total supply. In terms of token quantity, it is an astonishing 5.81 million tokens.
While the entire crypto community's attention remains focused on how MicroStrategy leverages convertible bonds to buy Bitcoin, another crypto giant in the US stock market has quietly completed a restructuring of its asset portfolio. Bitmine's latest financial report shows that the company not only holds crypto assets worth as much as $11.6 billion but has also staked over 5.06 million Ethereum directly on-chain. This is equivalent to locking nearly $10 billion worth of Ethereum into a domestic compliant node cluster called MAVAN (Made in America Validator Network).
This marks a landmark case of a publicly listed company's treasury management transitioning from pure asset speculation reserves to an on-chain compliant rent-collecting entity.
If we compare Bitmine's approach with MicroStrategy's, we find a fundamental difference in their asset holding logic.
MicroStrategy's strategy is a one-way beta play: borrowing cheap fiat debt to buy Bitcoin on the secondary market and locking it in cold wallets, relying entirely on the unilateral price appreciation of the coin to boost the company's net asset valuation. This model has explosive power in a one-sided bull market but during months of volatile consolidation, with no operational cash inflow, the company can only keep borrowing new debt to repay old debt to maintain its valuation myth.
Bitmine, on the other hand, embeds an extremely efficient on-chain cash flow loop in its case.
By staking 5.06 million Ethereum to compliant nodes, and based on the current Ethereum network's approximate 3.5% annualized yield, the company can effortlessly earn nearly 200,000 Ethereum annually purely from on-chain validation services. This translates to hundreds of millions of dollars in non-interest asset net income continuously flowing into the company's books each year. Even better, the company directly uses this on-chain rental income as the financial backing for its $4 billion stock buyback program. This not only provides solid buying support for its own stock in the secondary market but also directly dilutes external shareholders' equity, completing a perfect closed loop from on-chain staking yields to shareholder value return in the US stock market.
Honestly, I myself tried leveraged coin accumulation a few years ago or deposited tokens into various DeFi lending platforms and yield projects to earn annualized returns, only to be either forcibly liquidated during extreme flash crashes or lose principal entirely when project teams ran away. After these painful lessons, I realized that in the crypto world, safe and stable cash flow is the ultimate weapon for long-term survival amid storms. Bitmine's approach leverages the extremely low compliance capital cost of a listed company to turn the most stable on-chain validator nodes into cash cows on the company's balance sheet.
Moreover, Bitmine specifically emphasizes the localization and compliance of its validator nodes. Against the backdrop of increasing global geopolitical and regulatory scrutiny, placing the validator network under US regulatory oversight not only avoids potential legal sanctions but also meets the stringent safety margin requirements of traditional pension funds and institutional capital.
This raises the bar for public listed companies holding crypto in their treasuries from merely buying and holding to deeply participating in consensus layer governance and capturing network rents.
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ Didn't go out today, turned down a so-called "resource connection" afternoon tea. Those occasions are basically just people feeling each other's chips in their pockets, ending with "let's keep in touch." Now that it's quiet, I scanned a few wallet addresses I follow and pulled up the on-chain liquidation data from the past three days to take a look. Price is an illusion of sentiment, but the liquidation line is ironclad rules—once hit, you have to surrender.
Let me pick a few that left an impression.
The whole on-chain environment is still in that lazy state. The average Gas price on $ETH mainnet has dropped to single digits; miners probably don't even have the energy to curse anymore. But one phenomenon is worth noting—several large addresses that have been silent for almost two months started transferring $ETH into Lido today. The amounts aren't large, but the moves are so synchronized it looks like they checked their watches beforehand. On the $SOL side, there was a cross-chain stablecoin transfer this morning, which was split into dozens of small amounts and dispersed into several lending protocol deposit ends, as if quietly setting up some interest-earning outposts.
The old faces in DeFi aren't very active, but there are things in the details. In $AAVE's v3 pool, a certain institutional address executed a loop loan operation, with both collateral and borrowed assets being stablecoin pairs. After all the fuss, the interest spread was minuscule, but someone was still willing to pay the Gas fee to arbitrage, indicating that idle funds in the market are indeed so abundant there's nowhere else to go. The $MKR governance voting page was so quiet today you could hear echoes; the proposal pass rate was 100%, but participation addresses were pitifully few—whales are used to not speaking, casting their votes and leaving. In $UNI's front-end trading pairs, a few long-tail tokens suddenly showed significant turnover, clearly market makers adjusting inventory, unrelated to retail traders. $LINK's oracle remains the same, reporting prices every minute, neither happy nor sad, like a civil servant who never makes mistakes.
The RWA sector had a striking transaction today. A newly created address just two weeks old was shuttling $USDC back and forth between Ethereum and Polygon, ultimately gathering it into a protocol dedicated to buying US Treasury tokens. Single transactions were only a few hundred thousand dollars, but repeated seven or eight times in one day, as if testing the slippage tolerance of some automated strategy. On the $ENS side, a nearly expiring domain was renewed by the original owner with a premium for ten years. This kind of operation usually means more than just one wallet is bound behind it, possibly a whole set of DApp front-end entrances.
Nothing much to say about Meme; the script is still the same old one. The $PEPE and $DOGE charts overlaid look like photocopies—when Bitcoin moves, they twitch; when Bitcoin rests, they lie flat. But the internal thermometer is definitely dropping—the number of people discussing meme in the group is down 60% from last month, and those still spamming are basically bots. The second- and third-tier meme coins' K-lines have formed a standard long-term horizontal descending staircase pattern; occasionally someone places a buy order at the bottom, as if waiting for a pie to fall from the sky.
The health reports for L2s don't look good today. $ARB's cross-chain bridge inflow dropped to the second-lowest point this year; $OP's Sequencer revenue also hit a new low. The whole track seems to be going through a long hard time. In $STRK's community forum, someone posted asking "Is development still ongoing?" The best reply was "The codebase was updated last week." That single sentence is already the biggest comfort for token holders.
$SUI and $APT, these two hard-luck brothers, both hit new local lows today. Their combined total locked value is less than a fraction of a single project's peak last year. $SEI is a bit more resilient but its volume has shrunk to a heartbeat-less state; the intervals between transactions are getting longer, and the sparse price points on the order book look like a few distant camel thorns in the desert.
There are some other names that were once stars in major communities but now are like concert tickets forgotten in an old drawer: $INJ, $TIA, $FXS, $PENDLE. The projects themselves haven't released any bad news, development progress is ongoing, but market attention is like a burnt-out light bulb—you can twist it all you want, it won't light up. Of course, some might say "After a big drop comes opportunity," which is true, but before opportunity arrives, deeper declines often come first.
Bitcoin's volatility today is ridiculously low; hourly K-lines are steadier than an old lady's stroll, with closing and opening prices differing by just a few dozen dollars. This sticky sideways movement is most evident in the options market—implied volatility across all maturities has dropped to the lowest in nearly half a year. Not surprising, everyone knows summer is the off-season, but the more so, the more you have to watch for when that string will snap. $SOL had a small afternoon charge; when it reached near the intraday high, a $2 million sell order hit precisely, immediately suppressing the momentum—this kind of precise sell order doesn't look like an emotional trade, more like a quant strategy's take-profit trigger.
The AI sector showed some vitality today. $FET and $RNDR outperformed the market by one or two points during the afternoon's small rebound, but those chasing quickly found glaring sell orders at every level above, like an invisible ceiling. $AR remains cold and indifferent, volume shrunk to the extreme, the order book so thin it's transparent; if big money wants to move, it wouldn't take much effort to move it up or down ten points.
Roughly summarizing today's observed capital flows. Net buyers clearly: $LINK, $AAVE, $MKR, $ENA, $ONDO, $ENS, $FET, $RNDR. Net sellers persistently: $ARB, $OP, $STRK, $WIF, $BONK, $FLOKI, $SUI, $APT, $SEI, $CRV, $CAKE. But this only shows who had the upper hand today; when you wake up tomorrow, whether the market flips depends entirely on how US stock futures move overnight or if some big influencer tweets something at 2 a.m.
The glass curtain wall of the office building opposite the window has shifted its reflection from glaring white to warm yellow. Evening has come, the wind has risen, and the newly transplanted ginkgo leaves downstairs rustled for a while before quieting down. I got up and cracked the window open a bit; a breeze carrying the city's residual warmth slipped in, blowing away the stuffiness that had built up in front of the screen all afternoon. SpaceX Evening｜The rocket is back, let's see if $135 can turn into a launch pad tonight
SPCX surged 15.8% last Friday, quickly rebounding from the unlocking panic, and before the market opened tonight, it again stood near the $135 IPO price. Previously, over 900 million shares became eligible for sale, and the market expected a sell-off wave, but the actual selling pressure was temporarily lower than expected, with crowded short covering instead fueling the rise.
I simulated a short last week and got stopped out, losing the equivalent of a hotpot meal; tonight I don't plan to chase longs emotionally. $135 is the most critical boundary between bulls and bears: if it holds with volume after the open, I'll watch $140–145; if it rallies then falls back below $135, first look at $130, and if that breaks, it may retest $125.
Fundamentally, quarterly revenue is about $7.8 billion, up over 90% year-over-year, but a $541 million loss and high AI capital expenditures remain valuation controversies. Tonight is not just about price direction but whether the unlocked shares choose to cash out at $135 or continue holding. Do you think tonight is a second launch or a return capsule specifically to catch the high chase?
$SPACE
#SpaceX #SPCX #US stock trading does not constitute investment advice.Lying in a pile of rubble on the rooftop opposite the Capitol, the heat haze slightly distorts the view through the high-powered scope—the target dodged back into the underground shelter just a second before the final trigger pull.
The shooting window for the CLARITY Act was forcibly closed. The closed-door motion thrown on August 8 was at best a flare illuminating the weary faces of politicians, hitting no substantial target. As Congress entered recess, the rule-making decision-makers withdrew from the front lines, postponing the real decisive moment until mid-September. The regrouping on September 14 and the first round of voting on September 15 mark the moment the first armor-piercing shot is truly chambered.
For a highly disciplined sniper, the long wait is never torture but a golden period to correct ballistic data. Over $5.5 million in bets have piled up on Polymarket, yet the probability of the bill passing this year is tightly suppressed at 21%. In my scope, this means the crosswind speed is extremely unstable, with sidewind corrections exceeding three mils. Friction from conflicts of interest, consumer protection wrangling, deadlock over anti-fraud rules, and regulatory red lines between yield products and stablecoins act like five layers of cover distributed along the shooting path. Until these obstacles are thoroughly cleared, any blindly fired financial bullet will be mercilessly deflected.
The US stock token $XINTC’s linkage with the crypto market at this moment is merely a bait target swinging in the distance during the incubation period. The life-and-death boundary of DeFi, the compliance identity of major sovereign tokens, and even the liquidity pulse of the entire market are all tightly tied to that signal flare in September. $XINTC’s faint movements with the US stock market are at best scattered rubble behind cover, completely incapable of serving as a baseline firing signal.
Do not expose your lurking position in the foggy storm. Without an absolutely clear risk-reward ratio and a breath held at the locked target, never pull the trigger.
On September 15, wait for the smoke to clear or for the prey to emerge from cover. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating repeatedly around $65,000, and recently it has been moving in a period of fragmented candlesticks. This pattern is actually worth paying attention to—historically, every time such narrow fluctuations appear, it often means a major market move is brewing.
Looking back at the past two similar structures:
At the end of December 2022, the fragmented candlesticks had daily fluctuations of only about 0.5%, lasting for about 20 days. At that time, the price hovered around $20,000 for nearly half a year, then three large bullish candles broke through directly, completely escaping the bear market range.
In September 2023, most trading days also had fluctuations under 0.5%, lasting 9 days. At that time, the price had been consolidating around $30,000 for half a year, then gradually entered a slow upward channel, starting a new round of rally.
Now in August 2026, fragmented candlesticks have appeared again, with daily fluctuations under 0.5%, lasting nearly 10 days. And the price has been oscillating around $60,000 for more than half a year. The current structure is indeed very similar to the previous two.
Fragmented candlesticks often indicate market sentiment exhaustion. This kind of market is the most wearing—at least with big drops, people can follow the emotional swings and have something to talk about. But when it’s flat like this, even the desire to discuss almost disappears.
I am already fully invested. I’m not too concerned about direction; if it goes up, I’ll enjoy the results brought by my position; if it falls, I will use up to 10% of my position to buy some Bitcoin and Ethereum coin-margined contracts.
Theoretically, selling pressure is diminishing, sentiment is exhausted, and this state is likely the quietest moment before dawn. Let’s wait and see how it unfolds next.I am Cige, and the Samsung matter is much bigger than most people think.
In early August, Samsung announced at Galaxy Unpacked 2026 that Samsung Wallet will natively support stablecoin functionality, eventually covering over 800 million Galaxy smartphones. Samsung Wallet currently has nearly 19 million users in South Korea and serves 61 countries. The demo interface featured Circle's USDC. Samsung confirmed that within this year, it will first launch stablecoin account opening, cross-border remittance, and offline payment functions in some countries.
What exactly Samsung plans to do
Samsung plans to offer fiat-linked savings and payment accounts, allowing users to store, transfer, and top up stablecoins directly in their phone wallets. The Samsung Pay network will be integrated so that stablecoin balances can be spent at offline POS terminals just like ordinary bank cards. Underlying compliance, custody, and clearing will be handled by licensed institutions such as Circle and Coinbase, while Samsung provides the frontend and hardware access. Samsung aims to launch stablecoins denominated in both USD and KRW, with Samsung SDS and Dunamu, the parent company of South Korea's largest exchange Upbit, providing the underlying infrastructure. Samsung holds about $408 million in Dunamu shares.
Why this matters
The core bottleneck for large-scale stablecoin adoption has never been liquidity but user accessibility. Joseph Goh, head of Asia-Pacific at crypto investment bank Areta, put it bluntly: "Distribution channels are the scarce asset, and Samsung has massive user access." Having 800 million devices pre-installed with native stablecoin functionality means the world's largest smartphone manufacturer is putting digital dollars directly into ordinary people's pockets—no app downloads, no exchange registrations, just open the phone wallet and use it.
Samsung is choosing a custodial model, stepping into regulated financial services. This means Samsung is not just adding a feature but running stablecoin payment scenarios within a compliance framework. Samsung Wallet product manager Lee Dinham stated clearly, "Samsung Wallet will become the foundation of an interconnected financial ecosystem across Galaxy devices and services, integrating payments, rewards, and digital assets into a unified experience."
Samsung has been laying out its crypto strategy for years. In 2019, it launched a digital asset wallet through the Knox security module, supporting mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. In 2025, it partnered with Coinbase to integrate crypto purchases into the wallet, covering 75 million US users. This native stablecoin support is the latest and biggest step on that path.
Long-term impact on the stablecoin sector
The significance of Samsung's move is not immediate but long-term. Even if only 1% of the 800 million device base become active stablecoin users, that's 8 million people. For stablecoins to transition from on-chain trading tools to everyday payment tools, a critical node is needed—and pre-installation by a phone manufacturer is that node. Circle is betting on the Arc mainnet to build institutional infrastructure, while Samsung is creating the retail user gateway; both lines are advancing stablecoin payment scenario expansion simultaneously.
The direct impact on USDC will be immediate. Samsung is currently the only major smartphone manufacturer publicly demonstrating USDC as a use case. If Samsung ultimately chooses USDC as its launch stablecoin, Circle will gain the world's largest distribution channel.
Samsung is not issuing a coin; it wants every Galaxy phone to send and receive digital dollars. This direction is much bigger than issuing a coin itself. By the way, this does not compete with BTC—BTC is a store of value, stablecoins are payment tools, and the two sectors solve different problems. Once payment channels are opened, demand for value storage will only grow stronger.
Cige has finished. Think it over. #三星钱包将接入稳定币，支付场景继续扩展 $BTC $ETH $BICO 🚨 BTC is moving again — but I’m not ready to call this a breakout yet.
I was watching the market early this morning, and $BTC suddenly started getting volatile, bouncing around the $65K level like it was trying to make up its mind.
Open interest is up 2.66%, while Friday’s ETF flows also showed more than $100M in net inflows. That tells me traders are definitely waking up.
And it’s not just BTC.
Something is quietly happening underneath the surface. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index has climbed to 54, while trading volume on South Korea’s Upbit has exploded over the past two days. It almost feels like some capital is rotating out of traditional markets and looking for opportunities in crypto.
Then came Friday’s crazy -23K nonfarm payroll print. That immediately cooled rate-hike expectations and brought rate-cut bets back into the conversation.
In other words, the macro environment just gave crypto a little breathing room. 💧
Now the big question is:
Can BTC actually turn this momentum into a sustained move higher, or are we about to see another fake breakout?
Because honestly, this market has already trapped plenty of traders on both sides.
So if $BTC starts ripping again, enjoy the move — but don’t let leverage turn excitement into a liquidation. 👀
Sometimes the smartest trade is simply giving the market room to prove itself.
#DailyOrbit For this BTC cycle, first look at speed and tone, not just the popularity ranking.
OKX Onchain OS recorded 43 mentions of BTC in one hour at 20:00 on August 10, including 38 mentions in X and 5 in news.
Compared to the 24-hour hourly average, this cycle's speed is 0.98 times, which is "roughly close to the long-window average"; the tone is 30% bullish and 21% bearish. There's no need to force these two lines into the same conclusion: popularity answers how many people are talking, tone answers which side the text leans toward, and neither can directly replace trading volume and capital flow.
If in the next cycle speed, news sources, and actual market trading continue together, then increase confidence in the judgment; if it quickly returns to the average, this change is more like short-window noise. ($SPACE )
The market is waking up as liquidity flows back into altcoins. Whale accumulation and increasing volume suggest the next move could be stronger. SPACE is holding its support well and remains bullish.
Watching: Support at 0.00545 | Breakout above 0.00565
EP: 0.00545 – 0.00555
TP1: 0.00590
TP2: 0.00625
TP3: 0.00670
SL: 0.00520The CLARITY bill vote has been postponed to September, pushing back the regulatory implementation window, and the market's short-term expectations need to be recalibrated.
This change does not alter the regulatory direction; it only slows down the pace of fulfillment. Some funds had previously priced in regulatory benefits early, so the delayed vote means these expectations cannot be realized for now. BTC, ETH, and related compliant narrative assets may face short-term volatility.
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, there is no need to overinterpret this.
The key is not whether the vote happens in August or September, but whether the U.S. continues to move toward a clear crypto regulatory framework. As long as the direction remains unchanged, if the bill eventually passes, its greatest value will not be to stimulate retail sentiment but to reduce policy uncertainty for traditional institutions entering the crypto market.
Next, pay attention to three signals:
First, whether substantive voting can begin in September. Since this is a delay rather than a directional obstacle, the impact is limited.
Second, whether ETFs and institutional funds continue to flow in. Regulation is a catalyst, but capital is the core driver of the market.
Third, whether BTC and ETH maintain relative strength despite the delayed positive news. If prices do not weaken significantly, it indicates the market is already digesting the delay expectations.
With CLARITY postponed, the short-term effect is a delay in positive news, and the medium to long-term effect is more like a shift in the timeline. What really needs caution is not a "one-month delay" but a reversal in regulatory direction. As long as the direction remains unchanged, this is more likely a delay rather than a failure.
In the short term, BTC will continue to be watched for capital flows, while ETH and compliant narrative assets will focus on whether the September window can reopen. $BTC #CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移 🔥 $OKB isn’t chasing the market anymore. The market is starting to price it like “little Bitcoin.”
If you still see $OKB as nothing more than an OKX fee-discount token, you might be missing what’s actually changing underneath it.
The biggest story is simple: 21 million supply.
After the August 2025 changes, OKB’s total supply was permanently locked at 21M, with no new issuance and the relevant contract permissions removed. That makes the scarcity story fundamentally different from a token that relies on periodic buybacks.
But scarcity alone doesn’t create value.
Utility does.
And that’s where X Layer comes in. 🔥
X Layer is becoming more than just another L2. Native USDC and CCTP integration, growing stablecoin liquidity, rising DEX activity, and OKB sitting at the center as the network’s gas token all give the token a reason to actually be used.
Every AI-agent transaction, RWA activity, and on-chain exchange interaction potentially adds another layer of demand.
Then there’s the Wall Street + compliance narrative.
ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, invested in OKX at a reported $25B valuation. At the same time, OKX is pushing further into tokenized stocks, ETFs, and regulated financial products.
That changes the story.
$OKB starts looking less like a simple CEX token and more like fuel for a financial ecosystem connecting traditional markets with on-chain infrastructure.
And then the chart woke up. 📈
The 85–88 range broke with expanding volume, short-term resistance around 88 and 91 was taken out, and the combination of a fixed 21M supply with relatively thin liquidity created the perfect environment for a squeeze.
So no, I don't think this move is simply “OKB playing catch-up.”
The market is repricing the narrative:
First, supply collapsed.
Now, utility is growing.
And Wall Street is starting to pay attention.
That’s a very different setup.
Of course, I’m not ignoring the risks. X Layer still has to prove that its real economic activity can catch up with the massive infrastructure narrative.
#DailyOrbit #比特币BIP-110 fork stalled due to insufficient miner support Simply put: some in the community wanted to push the BIP-110 proposal to limit data like inscriptions that occupy a large amount of block space on the Bitcoin network, creating a forked chain. However, miner hashrate did not support it at all, and the forked chain nearly collapsed and failed to take off.
What is this about exactly?
- Supporters of BIP-110: Currently, inscriptions and various image data are written into Bitcoin blocks, crowding out space for normal transactions, causing block congestion and higher fees. This proposal aims to restrict this, preventing large amounts of non-financial data from abusing Bitcoin block resources.
- Opponents: Bitcoin’s core is openness and neutrality; anyone can write data on-chain. Artificially restricting certain data means changing the fundamental rules, which risks chain splits if opinions diverge, with some moving to a new chain and others staying on the original mainnet.
Actual result: The forked chain supporting this proposal was live for only 8 hours, mining just 2 blocks before stalling completely, falling behind the Bitcoin mainnet by over 80 blocks. Leading mining pool F2Pool publicly expressed pessimism. In short, almost no miner hashrate switched to this forked chain, marking this fork attempt as a failure.
My observations:
1. Bitcoin’s decision-making power heavily depends on hashrate, not just a small group of developers.
Even if some community members and developers find inscriptions annoying and want to change the rules, if miners and the vast majority of hashrate don’t follow, the proposal won’t pass. This fork is a typical example: the idea existed, but without hashrate support, the forked chain stalled and couldn’t run. The Bitcoin mainnet remains completely unaffected, and our usual BTC transactions are unchanged.
2. The community conflict over inscriptions will persist long-term and won’t end here.
Inscriptions do cause real issues like fee spikes and block congestion, but they also bring new ecosystems, transactions, and traffic.
Some see it as spoiling the Bitcoin network, others believe the network should allow everyone free use. This fork’s failure just means this solution doesn’t work; the community will keep debating and new improvement proposals will emerge.
3. Very limited impact on coin price; this is mainly a technical governance issue within the community.
This is just a technical debate inside the Bitcoin community. The forked chain failed, and no real mainnet split occurred. Typical secondary market traders won’t panic or massively buy/sell BTC because of this.
The real BTC price drivers remain macro factors like ETF funds, US CPI, and interest rate expectations. This news is mostly an insider topic, a minor emotional noise that won’t change the big trend.
4. A practical reality: a small group cannot forcibly change the rules.
This event also confirms Bitcoin’s underlying logic: to change core Bitcoin rules, broad consensus among miners, nodes, and users is required. Agreement from only a small group won’t push changes through; forced forks only produce a worthless chain with no hashrate or users.
In summary: The BIP-110 fork attempt failed outright, and the BTC mainnet remains safe. It exposed huge community divisions over inscriptions but there’s no quick way to eliminate inscriptions. This is a technical community stir that only slightly disturbs the market and won’t alter BTC’s mid-term trend $BTC $SPCX Previously, everyone was worried that a large number of old shareholders would sell frantically and dump the market, but after the lock-up, not only did it not crash, it actually rebounded sharply, completely digesting the panic caused by the reopening. Currently, the market is trading sideways in the evening, and after a big rally, the pace of growth has clearly slowed. Considerable funds are willing to enter and buy shares, so short-term support remains solid. But the hidden risks remain. The lifting of the ban is not a one-time event; multiple batches of shares will be gradually released, and existing shareholders could sell at high prices to cash out at any time. Moreover, its valuation is very high, and with the support of two hot concepts—aerospace and AI—its stock price is especially volatile. When the market sentiment is good, it surges; when the market falls, it also falls without hesitation. Right now, the market is all focused on Wednesday's CPI data. US tech companies like SanDisk and SK Hynix $MU are hesitant to make big moves, and the Rockets are unlikely to break out of their own major rally. #本周三CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten? Simply put: the crisis of the unbanned stampede has temporarily been avoided, but that does not mean it is completely safe. This is currently a pause phase after the rebound, with considerable resistance above. Do not treat this as the start of a new round of major gains to chase the market. #存储股抛压缓和, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #财报观察员: Bearish buying becomes the focus—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward? After the earnings report came out, many short SPCX sellers feared further losses and started buying back shares to close positions, essentially short covering, pushing the stock price back in the short term. But this rally is more about bears giving up and exiting, rather than a large influx of new long-term funds. There are more explanations to comeENGLISH BELOW AAVE 这个位置，空单我敢挂但不敢追。 $AAVE/USDT - 做空 交易计划：（置信度：87.00%） 入场区间：90.22 – 90.40 止损：90.99 止盈1：89.80 止盈2：89.46 止盈3：88.95 为什么关注这个机会？ 日线趋势还是 bearish，BTC 大方向也压在空头这边，AAVE 反弹到 90.31 这个 4 小时参考位，正好卡在空头回补的常规区域。15 分钟 RSI 已经到 32.89，短线动能偏弱，但还没到极端超卖，说明下跌可能还有一段路要走。 我的计划是 90.22–90.40 区间挂 SHORT，TP1 看 89.80，TP2 89.46，TP3 88.95，SL 放 90.99。1 小时 ATR 只有 0.67，波动不算剧烈，所以 SL 不用拉太宽，止损明确，风险可控。如果价格先往上插针到 91 附近再回落，我也不会追，等结构确认再说。 这单的把握大概八成五，核心逻辑是日线趋势压制 + BTC 不配合反弹。关键就看 90.40 这个位置守不守得住，破了我就认错离场，不硬扛。 你怎么看？ 如果 TP1 到了，你们会$BTC
$MSTR
Last week MSTR continued selling BTC~
Sold 1,690 coins at an average price of 64,262, totaling 100 million..
This 100 million was entirely used for STRC buybacks, and the price of STRC has gradually returned to around 95.
At the same time, about 650 million common shares were sold last week..
This 650 million was not used to buy BTC; almost all went into their cash reserve pool.
Currently, the cash reserve has reached 4.6 billion USD... Considering their total BTC value is about 55 billion USD right now.. Their cash reserve at this moment is already equivalent to 8% of the BTC value...
This doesn't seem like "surviving this bear market" because with their current annual interest cost of 1.7 billion (officially announced), this 4.6 billion already exceeds their previous 24-month target...
Are they stockpiling ammunition for the next cycle?
Waiting for the next wave of demand narrative to arrive, then shooting the bullets to fuel it?
Or do they still feel the 24-month safety cushion is not enough and want to save for 36 months? (Currently enough to cover 32 months of interest) Arbitrum One is still impressive, even though the token price has dropped more than 90%.
It remains the first blockchain to reach over 3000 RWA (Real World Asset) counts, mainly thanks to several perpdex choosing to build on Arbitrum, such as Variational and Ostium.
Tokenization is still accelerating. The once-anticipated application on-chain (chain transformation) hasn't materialized, but blockchain continues to expand further in the financial sector.
Not just stocks, it feels like more assets will be tokenized, with Web2 opting to go on-chain this way first.
More optimistic about ETH. $ETH $ARB 🚨 Breaking: Is this Nonfarm Payrolls report a positive or negative factor?
Tomorrow night at 20:30 (Beijing Time), the US July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will be released.
This could become a key catalyst for the next phase of the US stock, bond, and crypto markets. More importantly—
It may directly reshape market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.
The previously released ADP employment data was significantly below expectations, signaling to the market that:
👉 The US labor market may be gradually cooling down.
So, will this Nonfarm report confirm this trend or surprise the market again?
📊 Three scenarios, three market reactions
1️⃣ Nonfarm far exceeds expectations + wages rise simultaneously
🔥 Overheated employment → rate cut expectations delayed → US Treasury yields rise.
High-valuation AI, growth stocks, and storage sectors may face the greatest pressure.
$MU and $SNDK are prone to profit-taking and capital outflows, while value blue chips in the Dow are relatively more resilient.
2️⃣ Nonfarm significantly weaker than expected + unemployment rate rises
🚀 Cooling employment → rising rate cut expectations → US Treasury yields fall → tech growth stocks benefit.
AI hardware and storage sectors may see an oversold rebound.
⚠️ But there is a key risk here:
If the data is so poor that the market starts fearing a recession, then the "rate cut positive" could quickly turn into "recession panic," triggering a broad sell-off of risk assets.
3️⃣ Nonfarm basically meets expectations
⚖️ Employment cools moderately, neither hot nor cold.
In this case, the current market structure may continue:
Dow shows relative strength, Nasdaq oscillates at high levels, and capital continues rotating among sectors.
The market returns to the logic of:
Earnings reports + guidance + valuation + capital flows
🔍 What else am I watching besides Nonfarm?
1️⃣ Storage sector: rebound ≠ new main uptrend
The storage sector has recently experienced sharp volatility after earnings reports.
$SNDK has made a clear deep V reversal, but the earnings-driven downward revision issues have not completely disappeared.
One of the most critical observations now is:
👉 Whether $MU’s key support can hold.
If support holds → structural repair within the sector may occur.
If it breaks down decisively → this storage rally may enter a longer valuation digestion phase.
⚠️ Don’t mistake an oversold rebound for a new main uptrend.
2️⃣ Market divergence will continue
The "all stocks rising together" trend is gradually fading.
Those still able to earn capital premiums are:
✅ Earnings beat expectations
✅ Guidance stronger than expected
✅ Healthy cash flow
✅ High certainty of future growth
Conversely, even if current profits are high, conservative future guidance and insufficient capital returns may lead to continued capital abandonment.
Going forward, stock selection may be more important than index direction.
3️⃣ Unlock pressure still cannot be ignored
Large unlock pressure from $SPCX remains.
In times of thin liquidity, such supply pressure can temporarily amplify sharp market fluctuations.
👀 Key watchlist
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
⚠️ Weakening momentum / capital outflows
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🟡 Waiting for signal confirmation
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS
💰 Capital-favored strong picks
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
🧠 Current core market logic
🟠 $BTC
The liquidity core of the crypto market. BTC’s strength determines overall market risk appetite and heat.
🔵 $ETH
Institutional capital continues to focus; the market is gradually completing chip exchange and accumulation through oscillation.
🟣 $SOL
A relatively resilient representative in the Layer-1 track. If market liquidity expands again, upward elasticity is worth attention.
🤖 $TAO & $WLD
AI remains one of the most important market narratives; capital is continuously seeking new AI mainline opportunities.
🔥 $HYPE
Can serve as a window to observe market speculative sentiment and overall risk appetite.
🐕 $DOGE & $ZEC
Retail sentiment thermometers, directly observing whether short-term market speculation heat is rekindling.
🎯 Final sentence
Nonfarm itself is neither absolutely positive nor negative.
What truly matters is:
Nonfarm data → unemployment rate → wages → US Treasury yields → rate cut expectations → risk asset reaction
So don’t just focus on that number tonight.
Don’t trade the news itself.
🔥 Trade the market’s reaction to the news.
#星球日报 Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 65000, moving in a period of fragmented K-lines.
This is a key signal, indicating that a huge volatility is coming.
Let's look at the fragmented K-lines at the bottom of the bear market in December 2022 and the similar fragmented K-lines in September 2023.
End of December 2022:
Fragmented K-lines: about 0.5% daily, lasting 20 days
Consolidation: June to December, half a year, around 20,000
Result: suddenly three large bullish candles broke through 20,000 USD directly, exiting the bear market
September 2023:
Fragmented K-lines: most daily fluctuations less than 0.5%, lasting 9 days
Consolidation: April to October, half a year, around 30,000
Result: entered a slow upward phase, starting a bull market
August 2026:
Fragmented K-lines: less than 0.5% daily, lasting 10 days
Consolidation: February to August, half a year, around 60,000
Result: unknown
When such fragmented K-lines appear in a bear market, it means emotional exhaustion. This is the most painful market condition; at least with a big drop, we can follow emotional swings and have topics to discuss.
Currently, I am fully invested.
As for the direction, I don't worry. If it surges, I just enjoy the results of being fully invested.
If it crashes, I will use up to 10% of my position to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum coin-margined contracts.
Of course, theoretically, with selling pressure diminishing and emotional exhaustion, this is the dawn before the daybreak. Let's wait for the upcoming market together.Many people are now waiting: "When exactly is the real Altseason coming?" But if you look closely at recent market structures, you'll find things may not be so simple. Currently: 🟠 $BTC — still the most important safe haven 🔵 for capital $ETH — relative strength is becoming a key point to watch 🟣 $SOL — still worth watching ⚡ among high-beta assets $XRP — capital attention exists, but price performance has not fully kept pace The most noteworthy point is here: 💰 funds are moving into some XRP-related investment products, but spot prices have not seen a strong breakout in tandem. This implies a very important issue: capital inflows ≠ prices inevitably rise. The market ultimately needs to see: 📈 Trend 💧 Liquidity 📊 Trading Volume 🔥 Market Sentiment ✅ Price Confirmation Recently, the US spot BTC ETF saw weekly inflows of about $850 million, while the ETH ETF recorded about $240 million in inflows during the same period. This indicates that institutional funds are returning to major digital assets. But it cannot yet be announced: "The full altcoin season has begun." A more accurate description might be: funds are selectively attacking. 📡 --- My Current Market Radar: 🟠 $BTC The core anchor of market liquidity. 🔵 $ETH Focus on whether it can consistently outperform BTC. 🟣 $SOL High($XXLE )
The market is heating up again as volume continues to increase and whales quietly accumulate quality assets. xXLE is maintaining its bullish structure above support and looks ready for another leg higher if resistance breaks.
Watching: Support at 58.80 | Breakout above 60.00
EP: 58.8 – 59.4
TP1: 61.5
TP2: 63.5
TP3: 66.0
SL: 57.2The CLARITY bill vote has been postponed to September, pushing back the regulatory window, turning short-term benefits into a "delayed realization".
The CLARITY bill was originally highly anticipated by the market, but the vote delay to September means the pace of implementing the US crypto regulatory framework has slowed again.
This does not indicate a change in regulatory logic, but rather a postponement of the regulatory implementation timeline.
In the short term, the market may experience some disappointment. Previously, funds had already traded in anticipation of "regulatory implementation," but now with the vote delayed, these benefits cannot be realized for the time being. BTC, ETH, and some compliance narrative-related assets may experience short-term volatility.
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, there is no need to be overly pessimistic.
What truly matters is not whether the vote happens in September or August, but whether the US continues to move toward a clearer crypto regulatory framework.
If the CLARITY bill can proceed smoothly later, the biggest market change may not be to trigger retail investors to FOMO again, but to further reduce policy uncertainty for traditional financial institutions entering the crypto market.
This is the real value of regulation.
For the market, there are three signals to watch next:
First, whether September can re-enter a substantive voting phase.
If it is just a delay without substantial resistance, the market impact is relatively limited.
Second, whether ETFs and institutional funds continue to flow in.
Regulatory benefits are only catalysts; the real determinant of sustained market trends is capital.
Third, whether BTC and ETH can remain strong despite the delay in benefits.
If the regulatory window is pushed back but BTC does not weaken significantly, it indicates the market has begun to digest the delay expectations and capital confidence in long-term regulatory improvement remains.
The CLARITY vote delay means short-term benefits are postponed, and medium to long-term it looks more like the timeline has been pushed back.
What the market really needs to be wary of is not a "one-month delay," but a reversal in regulatory direction.
If the direction has not changed, then this delay is more likely just a postponement, not a failure.
For BTC, continue to focus on capital flows in the short term; for ETH and compliance narrative assets, focus on whether the regulatory window can reopen in September. $BTC #CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移 #财报观察员: Short Covering Becomes the Focus, What's Next for SpaceX? $SPCX 1. Recent Complete Market Review SpaceX (SPC‑X) has just completed a highly dramatic round of trading. After the release of the first earnings report post-IPO and the dual negative impact of a trillion-scale restricted stock unlocking, the stock price dropped to a low of $108, hitting a new low since listing. The market widely feared that the massive unlocking of shares would trigger a large-scale sell-off. However, the reality surprised the shorts: in the two trading days following the unlocking, the stock surged a total of 23%, with the price approaching the IPO issue price of $135 again. Shorts were heavily squeezed, and short covering has become the core driving force of the current market. 2. Breaking Down the Underlying Logic Behind Short Covering 1) Large Short Positions Previously Before the unlocking, the short interest accounted for up to 36% of the float, with many investors betting that internal shareholders would sell after the restricted shares were unlocked, pushing the stock price further down. Currently, the float has expanded to 1.55 billion shares due to the unlocking, and there are still over 250 million shares in short positions, accounting for 16% of the float. The large short position means potential buying power reserves. Once the stock price stops falling, short sellers covering losses will trigger a short squeeze. 2) Fundamentals Have Not Deteriorated The Q2 earnings report was overall impressive: quarterly revenue rose 92% year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA surged 191% year-over-year, Starlink business steadily profitable, and AI computing power business revenue growing rapidly. The market panic initially stemmed only from the high AI#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
The market has already changed. As of 22:40, BTC returned to 64,781 USDT, down 0.57% in 24 hours, hovering near the 64,523 support; ETH is weaker, at 1,898.8 USDT, down 1.29% in 24 hours, just one step away from the 1,894 support. Funds are clearly reducing risk before the data, not celebrating prematurely. ⚠️
Although June CPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month, it still rose 3.5% year-on-year. The market expects July's year-on-year to remain above 3%; July non-farm payrolls also decreased by 23,000. Weak employment and high inflation have the Federal Reserve caught in the middle. In the July meeting, there were already 3 votes for a rate hike. As long as core services rise again on Wednesday, September rate hike pricing could quickly heat up. 🚨
If CPI is moderate, BTC must first reclaim 65,490 and ETH stand back above 1,938 for risk appetite to truly return; if the data is hotter and breaks below 64,523 and 1,894, don’t rush to buy the dip, volatility may continue to expand. Low CPI does not automatically mean a takeoff; growth concerns could also trigger a second wave of declines. 📈🔥
#CPI #FederalReserve #BTC #ETH #MacroTrading🔥The SanDisk Investor Day on August 13 is approaching, with earnings discrepancies yet to be resolved
SanDisk will hold its Investor Day on Thursday. CEO David Goeckeler will lead the event, with CFO Luis Visoso and the core management team also attending.
This meeting is important because it falls at a special moment—the bullish and bearish battle triggered by the August 5 earnings report is still ongoing.
The earnings themselves were explosively impressive.
Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, up 372% year-over-year and 51% quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the market expectation of $8.48 billion. Non-GAAP EPS was $39.25, 1.12 times the market expectation. Gross margin soared to 84.6%, a single-quarter record high since the spin-off. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year.
The data center segment is the absolute star—quarterly revenue of $2.977 billion, up 1298% year-over-year and doubling quarter-over-quarter. A year ago, data center accounted for only 12% of SanDisk's bit shipments; now it has risen to 38%.
However, the stock price started plummeting from the close on August 5—falling 5.4% in regular trading, continuing to drop after hours, and opening on August 6 down more than 12% at one point. From the June all-time high of $2354, it has nearly halved.
The root of the contradiction is the "expectation gap."
SanDisk's Q1 FY2027 guidance—revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion—is below the FactSet consensus of $10.8 billion. Gross margin is expected to slightly decline from 84.6% to 83%-85%. The market sees this as "growth may slow," not "still surging."
But on the other hand, the fact is: SanDisk has signed 8 long-term contracts locking in $93.9 billion in minimum revenue, covering more than half of supply for over four years. About 50% of FY2027 bit shipments are already locked in, rising to about two-thirds in FY2028. There is also a $15.5 billion buyback authorization, about 8.6% of the company's market value.
This brings us back to the core suspense of Thursday's Investor Day—whether management can use the HBF technology roadmap, NBM long-term agreement progress, and capacity expansion plans to convince the market that this AI storage cycle is not a "peak," but a "gear shift."
HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) is the key variable in this narrative. SanDisk and SK Hynix just released the first HBF OCP technical specification on August 4, attempting to establish a new AI storage tier between HBM and NAND Flash. The Investor Day will likely disclose more commercialization timelines and technical details.
For trading, the market will probably wait until Thursday—bulls await the HBF roadmap to gain confidence, bears await validation of the guidance shortfall logic. SNDK has recently been oscillating between $1240-$1260; if the Investor Day delivers an above-expectation HBF commercialization timeline or long-term contract updates, it could trigger an upward correction; if the content is bland, the divergence may continue to tug-of-war.
One more detail to watch: August 14 is the SEC 13F quarterly holdings disclosure deadline. Whether institutions reduced storage sector holdings at highs in Q2 will be partially revealed then.
Do you think SanDisk is at a "cycle peak" or an "AI gear shift"? Can HBF support the next narrative? Share your thoughts in the comments.👇
#闪迪8月13日投资者日临近，财报分歧待解 Family, this is real, and it's even more serious than you think.
The U.S. Central Command issued a statement on Sunday saying that as of August 9, the U.S. military has ordered a total of 55 commercial ships to reroute, disabled 2 ships, and boarded and inspected another 2. Just a week ago, this number was 35, so it increased by 20 in 7 days. The U.S. military has deployed more than 20 warships in the Middle East to strictly enforce the blockade. This is a clear signal to the market — the Strait issue cannot be resolved in the short term.
For crude oil, this is the real "slow knife cutting flesh."
Previously, the market was speculating on a "ceasefire expectation," causing oil prices to plummet 8%. Now, the gap between expectations and reality is widening. The Iranian Foreign Minister said they are negotiating with Oman on the Strait's legal mechanism and management, but on the other hand, Iran is adding new conditions. Both sides are talking past each other, making it very difficult to completely eliminate the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices.
Brent has already rebounded from the ceasefire expectation low of $79.36 back to $83.48. Once negotiations truly break down, oil prices are very likely to surge.
For BTC, the logic chain is very clear.
Oil price rises → inflation expectations rise → the Federal Reserve dares not ease → rate cut expectations are delayed → risk assets come under pressure. The CPI on Wednesday was already uncertain, and this oil price issue adds fuel to the fire for inflation expectations before the CPI release. BTC has been stuck around 64,000 for a long time, lacking a clear direction. If oil prices continue to rise, the direction is very likely downward.
A few words from me:
55 ships rerouted is not a small number, indicating the U.S. military is serious in execution. The biggest problem in the market now is: on one hand, trading on ceasefire expectations; on the other, fighting a blockade war. These two logics cannot both be true; sooner or later, one will be falsified. Before the CPI data and the Strait situation become clear, don't heavily bet on direction. When you don't understand, controlling your hands is more important than anything.
How long do you think this blockade will last? Let's discuss in the comments. #霍尔木兹协议未落地，油价风险再升温？ Data in the coming days may directly change the market's judgment on the entire chain: interest rates → US Treasury yields → US dollars → risk assets → BTC. 📅 August 12 | One of the most important US CPI data points this week. The market currently expects July CPI to be about +0.16% month-on-month, and core CPI to be about +0.24% month-on-month. If actual data falls short of expectations: 🟢 Inflation cools → rate cut expectations heat up → US Treasury yields are under pressure, → US dollars may weaken→ risk assets gain breathing room; conversely, if CPI is significantly higher than expected: 🔴 inflation reheats → high interest rates may persist longer→ US Treasury yields rise, → US dollars gain support→ Stocks, gold, and crypto markets face pressure again. 📅 August 13 | PPI + Initial Jobless Claims CPI looks at consumer prices, while PPI helps the market assess cost pressures on the business side. The simultaneously announced initial jobless claims will continue to provide new clues about the U.S. job market. Looking at these two data points together is more valuable than looking at one individually. 📅 August 14 | Retail Sales + Consumer Confidence The market will then shift its focus to American consumers. Currently, the market expects July retail sales to be about +0.3% month-on-month. If consumption remains strong and inflation does not decline significantly, it may be harder for the Fed to quickly switch to easing. But if: consumption slows + inflation cools, then the market...📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 15)
According to liquidation data, short- and mid-term longs are being crushed mercilessly, but long-term shorts are starting to fight back, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $866,000 $645,100 $220,900
4 hours $7,479,900 $6,885,500 $594,300
12 hours $8,240,500 $7,273,100 $967,300
24 hours $23,129,900 $10,763,200 $12,366,700
From the $BTC liquidation data, long liquidations dominate shorts in the 1-hour, 4-hour, and 12-hour windows: 1-hour longs are 2.9 times shorts, 4-hour ratio surges to 11.6 times, and 12-hour ratio is about 7.5 times, indicating a nuclear-level intensity short- and mid-term long squeeze; the 24-hour direction completely reverses, with short liquidations crushing longs, shorts are 1.15 times longs, showing a full-scale short squeeze in the long term. The whales have executed a fierce pivot on BTC—short- and mid-term longs are selectively liquidated, long-term shorts are wiped out, with total liquidations exceeding $23.12 million. Everyone should manage positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | August 15
This week's market has three main themes pointing to the same topic: macro narratives and industry logic are undergoing a synchronized repricing.
📊 CPI Decides Life or Death: The September rate hike scale hangs in the balance
At 20:30 Beijing time on August 12 (Wednesday), the US July CPI will be released. FactSet consensus forecasts overall CPI year-over-year to fall from 3.5% in June to 3.4%, core CPI year-over-year from 2.6% to 2.5%. Deutsche Bank expects a month-over-month increase of 0.15%.
Why is this CPI so critical? After July's nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from 57% to 44%. But CME data shows the rate hike probability still oscillates between 44%-55%. An above-expectation CPI could instantly tip the scale toward a rate hike; a moderate reading might completely extinguish the September hike hopes.
💾 Storage Stocks: Explosive earnings but stock prices crashed
SanDisk Q4 revenue hit $8.965 billion, soaring 372% year-over-year, yet its stock price once plunged over 11% after earnings. SK Hynix Q2 revenue was 7.932 trillion KRW, up 557% year-over-year, but its stock has dropped about 20% since the July 14 all-time high.
Is the AI memory bull market still intact? Morgan Stanley's Shawn Kim has "switched from short to long," believing the most severe adjustment is near its end. The divergence between bulls and bears lies in: bulls firmly believe HBM supply shortage will last at least until 2027; bears point out memory contract prices are expected to peak in Q4, and ultra-high gross margins cannot be sustained permanently. Earnings are past tense; the disagreement is about the future.
📈 ETF Capital Inflow: BTC returns to $65,000
Bitcoin spot ETFs ended the previous eight consecutive weeks of outflows exceeding $8.2 billion. For the week ending August 7, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $853.5 million, the strongest performance since mid-April. BlackRock's IBIT attracted $479 million from August 3 to 5, accounting for 76% of total inflows.
Ethereum spot ETFs also strengthened, with a weekly net inflow of $245 million, maintaining net inflows for five consecutive weeks. Last week, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs collectively attracted about $1.1 billion in capital inflows.
Can BTC hold above $65,000? The key lies in CPI—if inflation is moderate, ETF inflows are likely to continue; if data is strong, rising rate hike expectations may suppress risk assets.
💎 Summary
CPI will determine which way the September rate hike scale tips; the "surprise drop after earnings" in storage stocks proves valuations have outpaced fundamentals; the continuous ETF inflows show institutional capital is re-entering. These three markets are clearing expectations simultaneously—Wednesday's CPI data will be the ultimate test of all this. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？
#存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ Recently, the BIP-110 conflict has come to the forefront. Originally planned for a soft fork, supporters have begun drafting a hard fork plan. This is the biggest community battle for Bitcoin in recent years. To briefly explain what BIP-110 aims to do: it is to constrain Ordinals inscriptions and BRC-20, preventing large amounts of images and irrelevant data from being stuffed into Bitcoin blocks, reducing the pressure on full-node storage, and preventing Bitcoin from gradually becoming a cheap storage chain. The reality is dramatic: after entering the forced window, the BIP-110 fork chain only mined two blocks, with computing power nearly zero, making it impossible to take the main chain's position. The vast majority of miners and nodes are not convinced, and the BTC mainchain continues to produce blocks as usual, with no substantial impact. But the conflict did not end. Soft forks fail, and some supporters are already planning hard forks. A hard fork means a new coin will split into a new coin, splitting directly in two. Holding BTC will receive forked coins, but this comes with huge uncertainty. Here is my honest view: In the short term, the BIP-110 fork chain has almost no chance of success, with severe insufficient hashrate, ecosystem, and exchange support, making it difficult to shake the Bitcoin mainstream. But the significance of this matter is not whether the fork will succeed, but rather exposing the huge internal ideological rift within Bitcoin. On one hand, they believe Bitcoin should only serve as a store of value, not support applications like inscriptions or images; On the other hand, they argue that block space is free and open, and anyone has the right to use it, so it shouldn't be done manuallyEarly this morning, I kept an eye on the market, and $BTC volatility suddenly spiked, hovering back and forth around the 65000 level. Positions were increased by 2.66%, and the ETF side also saw a net inflow of over 100 million USD on Friday.
Both mainstream and altcoins are actually stirring beneath the surface. The altcoin season indicator on CoinMarketCap has climbed to 54, and trading volume on South Korea's Upbit has surged sharply these past two days. It feels like funds are pulling out from Kospi and moving into the crypto space.
Friday's non-farm payroll data of -23,000 was really wild, directly knocking down rate hike expectations and bringing back rate cut trades. Liquidity has taken a short-term breather.
Now it depends on whether this momentum can ride the macro tailwinds to push the range further.
That said, there have been too many fake breakouts in this space. Even if it surges, don’t sleep too hard on leverage.BICO Retracement Support & Order Flow Accumulation
$BICO /USDT 4H Analysis: Biconomy Holds $0.037 Support Floor Amid Whale Inflow Absorption
Biconomy ($BICO) is navigating a cool-off phase on the 4H timeframe, trading around $0.04096 (-15.52% today) after pulling back from its recent parabolic peak of $0.09000.
1. Technical Overview (4H Chart):
Support Zone Test: Price has found dynamic demand near the $0.03734 local low, consolidating just below moving average resistance levels.
Moving Averages: Dynamic overhead resistance is formed by MA5 ($0.04190), MA10 ($0.04854), and MA20 ($0.05246). Reclaiming MA5 is the first key step for short-term recovery.
Multi-Timeframe Gains: Despite the daily pullback, BICO retains strong macro gains (+142.94% in 7D and +196.38% in 30D), showing a healthy market reset following an overextended rally.
2. Order Flow & Money Breakdown (5m Data):
Positive Net Inflow Delta: Order flow metrics reveal dynamic buy-side absorption with a positive Net Inflow of +61.46K BICO (Inflow: 835.27K BICO vs Outflow: 773.8K BICO).
Whale & Institutional Buyers: Mega Buyers (31.69% / 509.89K BICO) and Large Buyers (14.77% / 237.71K BICO) make up over 46% of total order book volume, actively absorbing sell pressure near $0.040 support.
💡 Trading Perspective:
Defending the $0.037 – $0.040 support range is critical for BICO to establish a higher low base. A strong 4H close back above $0.048 (MA10) can pave the way for a recovery retest toward $0.052 – $0.060.
What’s your setup for $BICO ? Are you accumulating at this $0.040 support base or waiting for confirmation above $0.048? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
Disclaimer: Content provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always DYOR before trading!
#AIMemorySelloffEases
#SpaceXShortCovering
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn Any of our trading decisions must include a time limit to be considered valid.
Recently, I saw a viewpoint expressing that: most likely in the next Bitcoin bull market cycle, due to MicroStrategy's strategic shift, $MSTR will no longer spiral upwards with both feet stepping in sync. The conclusion is that buying MSTR is no longer viable, and one should honestly buy Bitcoin; before the next few years unfold, no one can confirm or refute this view, but I raise two points:
1. Look at the volatility of the coin and stock themselves. Bitcoin's current price doubling means 130,000, breaking the previous high, while MSTR's current price doubling means 200;
2. Consider time and inertia. Perhaps the above viewpoint will eventually be confirmed, but maybe MSTR will only be proven unable to spiral upwards in the mid to late stages of the next Bitcoin cycle;
However, by then Bitcoin might already be at 130,000, and MSTR might have returned to its previous high. Bitcoin could continue to rise, but MSTR might not follow; just like in early 2023, we still speculated on L2, modular solutions, and other things that were ultimately proven unviable.