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Real-time Smart Money Dynamics in the Crypto Market (August 20, 10:15)
BTC Direction: This rally approached the 70000 mark, with clear divergence among smart money internally. Some long-term smart money continues to accumulate coins at low levels and has not made large sales during the recent rally; short-term smart money is taking profits in batches near the 70000 level, no longer chasing highs, while also placing small short positions to play the pullback after the spike, waiting for breakout confirmation before readjusting positions. ETF funds continue to flow in, but short-term smart money has not chosen aggressive chasing, with a rising wait-and-see sentiment.
ETH Direction: Smart money has significantly tilted funds toward ETH, with many on-chain smart money addresses withdrawing ETH from exchanges to self-custody wallets, pre-positioning for this rebound. However, after the rapid short-term rally, some short-term smart money has started to realize profits in batches, placing short orders in the 2280-2340 range to play the resistance pullback; long-term smart money still maintains staked locked positions, showing no signs of large-scale transfers back to exchanges for selling.
This article is for market review only and does not constitute any investment advice. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
Will there be a rate hike in September? I'll give my conclusion first: I think the probability of no hike is higher, but the dovish scenario is no longer the case.
The July FOMC vote was 9 to 3, with some clearly calling for a 25 basis point hike, indicating that the hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve have clearly grown.
However, the problem is that July's CPI started to cool down and employment is weakening. Suddenly raising rates now would be like forcing the economy to suppress inflation. So I currently lean towards no change in September, and the market is clearly pricing in a higher probability of "holding rates."
What really needs attention is that if there is indeed a rate hike in September, $BTC and US stocks $QQQ will very likely get hit together in the short term.
Rate hikes mean tighter liquidity + rising US Treasury yields + declining risk appetite. High-volatility assets like BTC will be hit first, and US stocks, especially high-valuation AI tech stocks, will also face significant pressure. Conversely, if there is no hike in September and subsequent data continues to show inflation easing and weak employment, the market will reprice "rate cut expectations," giving BTC and US stocks a chance to continue rising.
Rate hike: BTC falls first, US stocks fall first; no hike: BTC and US stocks are relatively strong.
However, the real big positive is not just no rate hike, but no hike plus the start of rate cuts later.
What we fear most now is inflation picking up again, forcing the market to reprice for high rates to persist longer. This is the biggest source of pressure for BTC and US stocks $SNDK going forward.#美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 Twofold Impact on BTC
1. Short-term: Sentiment boost, but not a direct price driver
This is a macro signal favorable to risk assets, but it won't directly buy Bitcoin. Combined with optimistic expectations for crypto regulation, the two resonate, giving the market bullish confidence, coupled with a large number of short positions previously, fueling this violent surge.
For example, Standard Chartered's $100,000 target is more of an institutional viewpoint to strengthen market sentiment, not implying it will be reached soon.
2. Medium to long term depends on actual implementation effects
- If the repurchase effectively suppresses US Treasury yields and the macro environment remains accommodative, it will provide a favorable overall environment for the crypto market;
- If inflation data rebounds later and Fed policy expectations shift, this positive factor will be quickly priced out or even invalidated by the market.
Points to be cautious about
Currently, the rise is driven jointly by news and short squeeze leverage funds.
The positive news has already been priced in (partially realized). If US Treasury yields rebound again or no incremental spot funds follow up, a "positive news followed by pullback" is likely.
From a practical trading perspective
Do not rely solely on macro news to chase highs. Macro is the big picture; short-term still depends on whether BTC can hold the 68000‑69000 support range.
Macro positives are only suitable as broad directional references; short-term contract trading still needs to focus on volume, liquidation data, and must not treat institutional bullish reports as guaranteed price rises. Core reasons for BTC's rise yesterday:
① Rapid decline in US Treasury yields
The US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, causing a significant drop in long-term bond yields. The 30-year yield fell from about 5.34% to around 5.19%. After the yield decline, market risk appetite clearly rebounded, boosting risk assets like BTC.
② Weakening US dollar and improved liquidity expectations
The drop in Treasury yields also led to a weaker US dollar index. A weaker dollar typically benefits non-dollar-denominated assets such as gold and BTC. Yesterday, the dollar index fell about 0.8%, rising in sync with BTC and gold.
③ Concentrated short covering triggered a short squeeze
After BTC broke through the $65,000–$67,000 range, a large number of short positions were forcibly liquidated. Within a short time, over $1 billion in short positions were cleared in the crypto market, creating forced buy orders that pushed BTC from around $65,000 up to $69,000–$70,000.
④ Technical breakout drove chasing buying
BTC had been oscillating between $62,000 and $66,000 for a long time, accumulating many short positions. When the price broke through previous resistance, technical buying combined with short covering created resonance, turning the initial rebound into an accelerated rally.
This rally was not driven by a single positive factor but was a chain reaction: declining Treasury yields → weaker US dollar → rising risk appetite → BTC breaking key levels → massive short covering. An interesting detail: last night BTC rose 7%, ETH rose 18%, and SOL rose 11%.
ETH's rise was even more aggressive than the big brother's, indicating that this wave is not just a safe-haven buy but a full return to risk-on sentiment, with funds daring to touch more volatile assets. The fear and greed index went from 41 back to 47, moving towards greed.
ETH is quite magical; when it falls, the whole network holds memorials, and when it rises, the whole network throws weddings. The 2000 level suppressed it for several months, but this time it broke through with a combination of Treasury easing, White House positive news, and short squeeze—a triple boost with substantial weight.
But seasoned traders know: a single-day -20% drop is called a waterfall, and a single-day +18% gain is often followed by a "pullback confirmation." Don't rush to FOMO today; see if it can hold 2,000 firmly. If it holds, that's a starting point; if not, it gives shorts a second chance to enter.#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ This surge is a short squeeze after a long period of low volatility sideways movement.
Previously, the market was quiet with volatility suppressed to low levels, accumulating a large number of short positions; once the price broke through, shorts were forced to cover by buying, leverage amplified the rise, BTC instantly surged close to 70,000, ETH rose sharply in sync, then quickly pulled back after the peak, leaving a long upper shadow.
Two core conflicts determine whether the rally can continue
1. The driving force behind the rise needs confirmation
Currently, there are two forces: ① short covering (forced liquidation pushing prices up); ② real spot buying (ETF and institutional funds entering).
If it’s only driven by short liquidations, spot trading volume and ETF inflows won’t keep up, so the surge is likely to fall back, a pulse rebound; if spot buying continues to support, there is hope to open new upside space.
2. Market divergence is obvious
BTC, ETH and other major coins show strong gains, but altcoins are highly divergent; the market has not entered full frenzy, and incremental funds have not widely spread to small coins.
Two key short-term signals to watch
1. Whether it can hold the 68,000-69,000 USD range: if it quickly falls back below 67,000, it means this breakout is false, the short squeeze ends and the market returns to consolidation.
2. Spot trading volume and ETF fund flows: continuous net inflows strengthen the rally’s sustainability; rapid outflows likely signal the rebound has peaked. $ETH 1. Macro environment (the most direct trigger)
US Treasury yields decline, the US dollar weakens, market risk appetite overall recovers, and funds flow into risk assets (crypto, growth stocks).
At the same time, a short squeeze occurs: a large number of short positions are liquidated in concentration, further driving rapid price increases, which is a leverage-driven amplification of the market.
2. Regulatory tailwinds catalyze
The SEC announces new crypto asset regulatory proposals, mature public chain assets have the opportunity to avoid being classified as securities, the market interprets this as reduced regulatory risk, and institutional long positions regain confidence.
3. Institutional capital inflow
Spot ETH-ETF ends continuous outflows and sees large net inflows again, with leading ETFs like BlackRock buying and warming up; listed companies and treasuries continue to pledge ETH, locking a large amount of tokens, spot exchange inventories keep declining, and circulating supply decreases.
Pledge queues continue to rise, with very few withdrawals from pledges, tightening supply.
4. Technical breakout
ETH consolidates sideways for 7 weeks, bottoming out in the 1800-1950 range, breaks out with volume above $2000 + the 200-day moving average key resistance, triggering trend traders to chase the rally, with significantly increased trading volume, forming a positive technical cycle.
5. Sector rotation catch-up
After BTC leads the strength, funds rotate to ETH, the ETH/BTC ratio recovers, capital flows from Bitcoin to Ethereum, driving gains that outperform the broader market. I'm Ci Ge. BTC broke through 70,000, and the total crypto market value surged 7.2% in a single day to 2.45 trillion. ETH was even stronger, rising 18.6% to 2271. The three major US stock indices edged higher, gold retreated to 4500, and oil prices hovered around 84.6. This surge is not explained by a single piece of news; it is the resonance of four forces at the same time window. The first force, the ceiling for long-term interest rates has been lifted. The U.S. Treasury Department announced it would double the single repurchase cap for long-term Treasury bonds to at least $4 billion, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to plunge from a 19-year high of 5.33% to 5.19%. This is the core macro variable in this round of rally. Previously, BTC was suppressed because long-term bond yields kept rising, but now that rope is loosened, the market is directly repricing all risk assets. The second force: a chain reaction of short liquidations. After BTC broke through 69,000, the entire network saw $2.984 billion in single-day liquidations, with short positions accounting for the vast majority. High-leverage short positions are accumulating in the 63,000 to 65,000 range. After the price breaks through key levels, a chain of liquidations is triggered, clearing momentum and reinforcing itself. This is not a fundamental-driven rally, but a bearish squeeze. The third force: ETFs have seen consecutive inflows. BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive days, with BlackRock IBIT contributing over $200 million in a single day. Institutions are continuously buying above 65,000, and buying is not short-term speculative funds but allocation funds entering the market. VanEck previously predicted that multiple capitulation indicators were triggered and the adjustment was nearing completion, and this assessment is being validated by the market. The fourth force#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 ✅ Short-term core logic: Geopolitical risks are heating up, making the market prone to intensified volatility and rapid shifts between bullish and bearish sentiment
1. Sentiment aspect: Risk aversion expectations lead
The U.S. announced the strictest sanctions ever on Iran, further escalating tensions in the Middle East, which will directly boost market risk aversion sentiment. In the short term, there are two divergent paths:
• Scenario ①: Funds seek safety, prioritizing gold and U.S. Treasuries, while cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, are likely to face downward pressure;
• Scenario ②: The market worries about tightening oil supply and renewed inflation, causing some funds to temporarily treat Bitcoin as a "digital safe-haven asset," resulting in a short-term pulse rally.
2. Indirect transmission path: Oil prices + inflation expectations
Sanctions target oil smuggling and cross-border fund channels, so the market will trade on oil supply risks. If oil prices continue to rise, inflation expectations will be pushed up again, the market will lower expectations for Fed rate cuts, and U.S. Treasury yields will rise, which is generally bearish for the crypto space in the medium to long term.
3. Additional potential industry impact
These sanctions explicitly name currency exchange and fund transfer channels. U.S. regulatory agencies are very likely to further tighten scrutiny of Iran-related crypto addresses and platforms. Stablecoins and some cross-border crypto channels may face more freezes and compliance controls, representing a potential bearish risk at the industry level, though this generally will not directly cause a major market trend reversal. Bitcoin ripped about 7% on Wednesday and briefly touched $69,750, its highest since early June and biggest single day percentage gain since March.
Coinglass put 24 hour short liquidations near $1.37 billion, over $1 billion inside an hour.
The clearest macro catalyst was Treasury debt management, not Fed policy. Treasury will at least double its long end liquidity support buybacks, lifting the per operation cap to at least $4 billion on 10 to 30 year paper, Sept 9 through Nov 4. The 30 year yield fell about 9bp to roughly 5.19%. Lower long end yields mean less opportunity cost for holding an asset that pays none.
The Fed was pulling the other way. July's 9 to 3 vote, with Logan, Hammack and Kashkari dissenting for a hike, was known in July, its first three way same direction dissent since 2016. Wednesday's minutes added the debate: AI related price pressures alongside tariffs and energy.
Flows tell a messier story:
· Spot BTC ETFs bled $390 million Aug 10 to 14, FBTC leading at $153 million
· Then $297 million in Aug 17 and $189 million Aug 18
· Wintermute flagged miner selling and ETF redemptions as a supply drag
So this was a positioning led move rather than proof of durable demand. Shorts were crowded, a macro headline hit, the squeeze did the rest.
The bigger story came a day earlier. On Aug 18 the SEC proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, its first crypto offering framework. Emphasis on proposed: 60 day comments, nothing in force.
As drafted, two registration exemptions, $5 million over four years or $75 million per 12 months plus financial statements and reporting. The centerpiece is a conditional safe harbor. It is not automatic. The issuer must permanently cease all essential managerial efforts, make no new promises, and file a public certification. Preemption reaches only transactions the rule covers.
BTC opened the year near $87,500. August is a recovery inside a wider drawdown.
Two stories, 24 hours apart. Which one still matters a year from now, the price move or the SEC framework?
#BTCBreaks69000 #TreasuryUpsBuybacks #FOMC9To3Split ✅ Short-term core logic: Geopolitical risks are heating up, making the market prone to intensified volatility, with rapid switches between bullish and bearish sentiment.
1. Sentiment aspect: Risk aversion expectations lead
The U.S. announced the strictest sanctions ever on Iran, further escalating tensions in the Middle East, which will directly boost market risk aversion sentiment. In the short term, there are two divergent paths:
• Scenario ①: Funds seek safety, flowing first to gold and U.S. Treasuries, while cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, are likely to face downward pressure;
• Scenario ②: The market worries about tightening oil supply and renewed inflation, causing some funds to temporarily treat Bitcoin as a "digital safe-haven asset," resulting in a short-term pulse rally.
2. Indirect transmission path: Oil prices + inflation expectations
Sanctions target oil smuggling and cross-border fund channels, so the market will trade on oil supply risks. If oil prices continue to rise, inflation expectations will be lifted again, the market will lower expectations for Fed rate cuts, and push up U.S. Treasury yields, which is generally bearish for the crypto space in the medium to long term.
3. Additional potential industry impact
These sanctions explicitly name currency exchange and fund transfer channels. U.S. regulatory agencies are very likely to further tighten scrutiny of Iran-related crypto addresses and platforms. Stablecoins and some cross-border crypto channels may face more freezes and compliance controls, representing a potential bearish risk at the industry level, but this generally will not directly cause a major market trend reversal.
4. Key judgment
It is difficult for this single piece of news to trigger a unilateral major trend. The market’s subsequent direction depends mainly on two points:
① Whether the situation continues to deteriorate (military conflict occurs);
② How U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index price in the situationThis surge didn't make me go long; instead, it made me more convinced that Bitcoin has one last drop, and it's a waterfall level. Why? Because the real bottom has never been shouted out on positive news. Trump's orders and Becent's market rescue have been more explosive than the last, and the market has indeed been shaken. But think carefully—if the U.S. really hoarded a large amount of Bitcoin, why wouldn't it quietly buy it? Why make such a big deal out of it? If doubling U.S. Treasury repurchases could really solve liquidity problems, why didn't U.S. stocks go crazy along with them? The faster the good news comes out, the more it seems like it's to cover up something. This explosive rally directly crushed the bears and forced all the onlookers to enter the market. Those who should buy have already bought it, those who should chase have all chased, the bulls have run out of bullets, and all that's left are those holding chips waiting to sell. And these people are precisely the source of the most feared selling pressure during future declines. Next, let's look at the structure. Such rapid rallies and rallies are usually not characteristic of a healthy bull market. The real bottom is ground down, naturally stabilized after no one cares, no one talks about it, and after all negative news has been released. It's not a V-shaped reversal that can be achieved with a few tweets or policy announcements. After a sharp rise, it often responds sharply to a sharp drop. The script I saw was: this short squeeze pushes the price to a high level, then distributes sideways at the high, waiting for retail investors to catch the last blow, and a large bearish candlestick directly breaks through all support. 60,000 yuan can't be held, 50,000 is just psychological comfort, the real target is in the 40,000 range. The last drop wasn't about price, but about faith. When everyone thinks "this time is different," the market will tell you in the harshest wayThe 401(k) channel is open, and the narrative of BTC as a “pension allocation” has just begun
Trump signed an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement accounts to invest in cryptocurrency, an impact that many have underestimated. The 401(k) is the largest retirement savings channel in the United States, covering tens of millions of workers, with assets under management measured in trillions of dollars. Even if only a very small portion of funds flow into BTC through this channel, its scale is enough to change the market’s capital structure.
More importantly, there is the “inertia” of the channel—401(k) funds are characterized by regular contributions, long-term holding, and low portfolio turnover. Once an asset is included in the 401(k) investment menu, it enters a “passive allocation” track, generating continuous buying pressure with every paycheck. This kind of capital is not like ETF flows that “come in today and go out tomorrow,” but a truly long-term locked-in position. BTC is transitioning from an “asset for speculators’ games” to a “standard holding in ordinary people’s retirement accounts.” ETH has not yet gained a similar retirement account channel—the 401(k) allocation logic favors “simple, understandable, and low-controversy” assets, and ETH’s complexity currently does not meet this standard. But this precisely means that when ETH’s institutionalization advances further and staking yields are incorporated into a compliant framework, it will also have the opportunity to enter a similar long-term allocation channel. The opening of the 401(k) channel marks BTC’s institutionalization entering the “second stage”—from institutional allocation to mass allocation. This narrative has only just begun. BTC stands at 69,494, approaching the short-term holder cost line: Why this rebound is different from before
💡 Bullish: If the key on-chain cost level is reclaimed, panic selling will significantly decrease, and the selling pressure structure will improve.
BTC rebounded to $69,494 (24h +7.89%), approaching the average cost line of short-term holders, which is a key position to judge whether the trend can turn bullish.
What's going on
There is a classic indicator in on-chain data: short-term holder cost basis (STH cost basis), which is the average holding cost of people who bought within the last 155 days. When the price is below this line, the short-term holding group is in a trapped state, and any rebound will face selling pressure from those trying to break even; when the price stands above it, this group turns from loss to profit, and the motivation for panic selling disappears, making them more inclined to hold for higher prices.
Now BTC is at $69,494, up 7.89% in 24 hours, just hitting near this cost line. ETH is even stronger at $2,259.57, up 18.26% in 24 hours, with SOL and XRP also rising around 10%, a broad market rally.
In short: The trapped holders are close to breaking even, and after breaking even, fewer want to sell, changing the selling pressure structure.
Market impact
- Short term: Whether $69,494 can hold is critical. Holding above the cost line turns short-term holders from bearish ammunition into bullish fuel, shifting sentiment from panic to reluctance to sell, and the depth of pullbacks will significantly shallow. Conversely, repeated friction below the cost line means each touch triggers break-even selling $ETH $BTC On July 31, we said that with long-term borrowing costs returning to 2008 levels, the government would definitely take action.
Today it happened. The Ministry of Finance doubled the repurchase amount to 4 billion each time, calling it "liquidity support."
What will happen next?
In the short term, this is to support the market floor, and liquidity in the government bond market will improve.
In the medium term, this paves the way for larger fiscal stimulus.
In the long term, the US dollar's credit is slowly eroding, and hard assets will become increasingly favored.
This logical chain is more important than any candlestick chart.BTC surged strongly to $70,099, with a 24-hour increase of 7.41%; ETH violently caught up, reaching a high of $2,342, with a single-day increase of over 18%.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.84 billion, with shorts being heavily liquidated. Key highlights: U.S. stocks only slightly rose, while the crypto market showed an independent trend. The core driving force of this rally is incremental on-exchange funds, not driven by U.S. stock sentiment.
On the capital side, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of nearly $500 million over two days, with BlackRock's IBIT as the main buyer, providing short-term support at the $70,000 level.
On the macro front, there is obvious suppression; the FOMC minutes were hawkish, with several officials maintaining rate hike expectations, and liquidity tightening risks remain.
In terms of market structure, BTC dominance rose to 58.84%. This ETH surge is mainly a catch-up rally, with $2,350 as a short-term strong resistance.
Altcoin performance is highly divergent: SOL and XRP slightly followed the rise, DOGE showed weak performance, and funds are highly concentrated in top mainstream coins, not yet broadly diffused.
Trading strategy: Do not chase highs; avoid chasing above 69,000 to mitigate risk. Patiently wait for a pullback and stabilization before looking for opportunities. #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落 July 2022
July 1st is the labor data release. At 4 AM on July 1st, the 4-hour chart shows a significant second test + low position.
July 13th is the CPI release date. The 4-hour status at that time was also after the start on the 1st, rising until the 7th, then continuously pulling back until 4 AM on the 13th, showing an upward direction + relatively low position.
July 28th at 2 AM is the FOMC meeting.
Review summary:
The rebound pattern of BTC and ETH throughout July is obvious. Under the bear market background, before each 5-star data release, there is a significant pullback to the lowest point. Considering the continuous 70% drop in May and June, July shows a clear bear market + upward direction state. The overall operation strategy continues to be: do not break the previous low on the 4-hour level, and enter long positions at low levels. Between July 20th and July 26th, there was a significant 4-hour bearish signal, so there was no possibility to continue going long during this period, and even shorting could earn a few points. Until the strategic force appeared on July 27th, the 6-day 4-hour bearish signals were completely nullified, and a new battle plan could be formulated.
Special note: July saw 3 waves of 6-day rebounds with strong momentum. Each rebound started around the 5-star data release (within 12 hours). It shows that mature trading has typical characteristics rather than frequent trading. $ETH ETF funds are starting to fluctuate again. Between $BTC and $ETH, which one looks more like the main storyline?
The market has been very interesting lately.
Everyone says they are looking at the long term, but their eyes are honest, watching the ETF fund flows every day.
One moment they say money is flowing back into BTC, the next they say ETH is being neglected. It feels like choosing a class president in school—everyone says they care about ability, but in the end, it’s about who’s more popular.
BTC’s biggest advantage right now is simplicity.
When institutions want to enter the crypto market, the first thing they usually think of is BTC because it’s easy to explain: digital gold, scarce asset, inflation hedge. This narrative is understood and accepted by traditional finance.
$ETH is a bit more complicated.
It’s not that it can’t compete, but it requires others to listen to you for a few more minutes—staking, DeFi, Layer 2, on-chain ecosystem. People who understand get excited, but those who don’t might just want to ask, "So is it really a coin?"
Therefore, changes in ETF fund flows are very important.
If funds continue to favor $BTC, it means the market is still seeking stability.
If $ETH starts attracting money again, it means risk appetite might really be returning.
I think the heat around this topic is because it’s not just about guessing prices, but about seeing which institution’s money they actually trust.
Retail investors can shout slogans, but institutional fund flows don’t lie.
At this stage, BTC looks more like the main asset, while ETH is more like a flexible asset.
One is responsible for stabilizing the situation,
The other is responsible for creating imagination.
A real big market rally usually doesn’t just lift one; BTC opens the door first, then ETH heats up the atmosphere.The short-term outlook should be mainly positive, with the backdrop of Trump's upcoming midterm election.
First, influenced by the Treasury's accelerated buybacks and changes in long-term U.S. Treasury expectations, the yield increase is slowing down and may even decline.
Second, the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September, and likely not in October either. Going forward, Feng Brother believes it won't either, due to easing CPI, declining employment, and most importantly, U.S. Treasury risks.
Third, Da Da will visit the U.S. next month; logically, friendly relations between the two countries are also positive for sentiment and expectations.
Fourth, with the midterm election approaching, there should be no extreme conflicts. The Iran-Oman Strait joint management agreement has been reached; optimistically, the strait may be passable in phases.#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
The 9-3 vote to keep rates unchanged, but there may be more than just 3 dissenting votes.
The Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting minutes were released last night, marking the fifth consecutive pause, with rates held at 3.5%-3.75%. However, the details reveal much greater internal disagreement than the vote result suggests.
The 3 dissenting votes are just the tip of the iceberg. Logan, Harker, and Kashkari voted against, advocating a 25 basis point rate hike. It doesn't end there—Schmidt and Musalem, who did not have voting rights in July, later stated that if they had voting rights, they would also have supported a rate increase.
The minutes use the word "many"—in the Fed's context, this usually refers to nearly half of the 19 policymakers. "Many" officials believe that if inflation does not continue to decline, further monetary tightening is necessary. Officials supporting a rate hike believe price pressures are "broad-based," and that failing to raise rates now could lead to "steeper and more costly consecutive tightening later."
AI was formally listed as a financial stability risk for the first time. Some officials pointed out that the high valuations of AI companies are based on very optimistic market expectations for long-term profitability; once these expectations are revised downward, it could trigger widespread asset repricing and tighter financial conditions. A few officials specifically noted that the AI industry is increasingly reliant on borrowing financing, shifting from equity markets to the credit system.
$BTC $SNDK $AXTI #US Treasury Expands Long-Term Bond Buybacks, 30-Year Treasury Yields Pull Back from Highs
The long end of the US Treasury yield curve just surged to a new high not seen since 2007 a couple of days ago, prompting the Treasury to act immediately: it announced that the liquidity buyback cap for 10- to 30-year bonds will be doubled from $2 billion per operation to "at least $4 billion" (effective from September 9 to November 4). Upon this news, the 30-year Treasury yield instantly dropped from around 5.32% high to about 5.19%.
But don’t get too excited yet; it’s important to understand the essence of this move:
This is liquidity maintenance, not money printing: The Treasury’s buyback is essentially "debt management," withdrawing old bonds with poor liquidity from the market and issuing new ones. It is fundamentally different from the Fed’s rate cuts or QE and does not inject large amounts of liquidity into the market out of thin air.
A drop in the bucket against the flood of supply: Buying an extra $2 billion each time is more like a short-term painkiller compared to the US’s debt total approaching $40 trillion and the massive issuance deficit.
The decline in long-term yields does give a bit of relief to US stocks, gold, and BTC, which have been suffocated by discount rate pressures recently. But as long as the fiscal deficit remains high and inflation is sticky, the plateau of high long-term rates is unlikely to truly end.
Do you think this Treasury intervention is a timely relief, or just a delay of a bigger liquidity crisis?
$TLT $SPX $BTC #USTreasury #Macroeconomics #Liquidity #USStocks #Cryptocurrency Brothers, my mold guy got liquidated, this time I really went down.
Didn't expect it to be so fierce in one day, it surged three to four hundred points overnight, I was completely stunned.
$ETH went straight from 1906 to 2335 in one day, up more than 20% in 24 hours.
Everyone in the group is shouting bull return, shouting to see 3000.
Over the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated more than $1.8 billion, ETH shorts were liquidated $366 million in one day, and I am one of them.
Many brothers mocked me in the comments, laughing at me with "Are you okay?" "Where are you?" "Are you alive?" I saw it, every single one.
But I, the short army, never give up, the short order is already placed.
You may laugh, but RSI has already reached 82.7, seriously overbought.
2,315-2,373 is a strong resistance zone, once it breaks below 2,153, long liquidation intensity will reach $479 million.
The US Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $130 million yesterday, breaking the record of five consecutive weeks of net inflows.
No matter how fierce the rise, it has an end.
I have already placed a short at 2,350, stop loss at 2,450, target first at 2,150, if broken look at 2,000. The short army cannot fall.
$BTC
$SNDK
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $ETH Beijing time 2 AM last night: The Federal Reserve July meeting minutes released
This is not a new interest rate decision, but the text minutes of the late July policy meeting, published at 2 AM.
Key points
1. Interest rates remain unchanged at 3.50‑3.75%, but there is significant internal disagreement: 3 members directly called for a rate hike; the minutes clearly state: if inflation does not come down, further rate hikes are not ruled out, and the entire minutes barely mention any discussion about rate cuts.
2. Crucial point: The market was previously betting on rate cuts in the second half of the year, but these minutes directly dampen those expectations, pushing rate cut expectations further back, with even the possibility of rate hikes, making it a hawkish minutes.
3. It also mentions caution about financial risks from an AI bubble and discusses reducing the number of policy meetings per year in the future (not yet implemented).
Crypto market reaction
• At the moment of release: the US dollar index rose slightly, US Treasury yields climbed; BTC and ETH were briefly dumped, then pulled back and fluctuated due to other news.
• Contradiction: The minutes themselves are negative for risk assets (high rates maintained longer), but during the session, positive overseas political rumors supporting crypto overlapped, so there was no one-sided big drop, but rather intense volatility with sharp spikes back and forth $BTC surged with increased volume this wave, finally producing a decent solid bullish candle on the weekly chart, which serves as a confirmation for the recent trend.
But honestly, judging a bull market reversal based on just this one bullish candle is still premature.
The biggest variable now lies with the Federal Reserve — whether the liquidity brought by the bond market repo is due to a sustained policy shift or just a temporary measure to suppress interest rates is uncertain. The longer the time passes without new catalysts, the weaker the marginal effect of this positive factor will become.
What can support the market going forward boils down to one thing: whether ETFs and major funds can continue net buying.
This is a hard indicator to watch closely in the coming days; once inflows stop, the high levels will likely become unstable.
From a trading perspective, this position is definitely not one to chase.
Lightly short around 70,000, targeting 68,000-67,500.
Markets always move forward amid hesitation and lay traps amid consensus, so let's watch as it unfolds.#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
The boss has something to say
Last night, BTC peaked at 69,888, just over 100 points short of hitting 70,000. ETH rose in sync to 2,119, with gains exceeding 8% at one point. After the short positions were liquidated, I have been out of the market; this short squeeze was indeed stronger than expected.
VanEck previously stated that multiple BTC capitulation indicators have been triggered, possibly signaling the end of the correction. Low volatility has pushed the cycle to a low point, and market participation is relatively low. This kind of structure is prone to big moves. Once there is a catalyst, short covering and leveraged liquidations happen simultaneously, directly pushing the price up.
Now BTC has pulled back to around 69,000, with a 24-hour gain still above 5%. The question is not whether it has risen, but how long it can hold. If volume and capital flow continue to support, holding steady at 68,000, the next target is the 70,000 round number. If this is just a short-covering rally, a pullback to the 65,000 to 66,000 range is also normal. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set. Good luck.A certain tree's fundraising is a bit shameless.
At the opening, its market value was 440 billion, which is half a BYD (about 280 billion) higher than China Duty Free (about 300 billion).
But the annual revenue of this certain tree (1.7 billion) is only three-thousandths of BYD's (about 600 billion revenue). A company with revenue only a fraction of BYD's market value wants to buy BYD plus half of China Duty Free.
This is equivalent to a bun shop downstairs in your neighborhood with an annual income of 200,000 yuan being listed at 200 million yuan, the same price as the big restaurant next door that earns tens of millions annually.
$BTC Last night BTC ETH HYPE surged explosively, driven by macro risk repair, warming policy expectations, spot buying ignition, concentrated short covering, and contract funds chasing the rally!
First, macro pressure eased. $BTC $ETH $HYPE
After the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, bond prices rebounded, and U.S. Treasury yields fell.
This is not yet quantitative easing, but the market at least saw some bottom-supporting attitude; long-term rates temporarily stabilized, giving risk capital a reason to re-enter.
Policy expectations are also heating up.
Trump met with crypto industry executives at the White House and pushed again for the Clarity Act. Although the bill hasn't been enacted, it was enough for the market to reprice regulatory improvements.
What really ignited the market was BTC breaking through.
The price started above $64,000, surged to around $70,450, and the sideways structure that had lasted for weeks finally broke open. After the breakout, trend funds and wait-and-see funds began entering, and shorts were forced to cover.
Next, I am watching three levels:
BTC holds $68,000, with upside targets at $70,500–$72,000
ETH holds $2,150 to $2,200, with upside targets at $2,350–$2,500
HYPE holds $65 to $67, with upside targets at $74–$78
As long as these levels hold, short-term sentiment has a chance to continue for 24 to 72 hours. #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $ETH 8.20 Morning Ethereum Update:
Although Ethereum has broken new highs and is bullish, I still need to pour some cold water on my brothers: don't chase the highs! Don't chase the highs! Don't chase the highs!
Important things said three times: if you rush in to go long now, you might get stuck at the peak if there's a high-level pullback. The trend is bullish, but it’s not a straight line up; after a big rise, a pullback to digest gains is natural.
If you want to go long, patiently wait for a pullback. Enter again once the 220-222 range stabilizes; the cost-performance ratio is much better, and stop-losses are easier to manage.
If you really want to short, don’t stubbornly fight the trend. Only try a light short position when it clearly can’t push past 232-234, take some profit on the pullback, and exit. Don’t hold short positions waiting for a big drop.
Remember: the trend is bullish, pullbacks are opportunities, chasing highs is risky. If 234 holds, continue to be bullish; if it breaks below 220, adjust your strategy. Risk control is always the top priority. #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #韩国全北银行接入Ripple，XRP能否受益 $PENDLE – Bullish momentum persists
$PENDLE LONG
Entry: 1.5014 – 1.5060
Stop Loss: 1.4460
TP: 1.5268 - 1.5903 - 1.6306
Plan & Logic
The chart shows a mature, strong uptrend with the price riding a confirmed continuation pattern. Price action is reacting near an important level, so risk management matters here. The setup depends on confirmation around the entry zone and follow-through after the move.
Trade $PENDLE here#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡
$SKHYNIX's previous high was 1974, current price around 1200. SK Hynix announced a 40 trillion KRW buyback. Besides this, the chairman of SK Hynix stated that future demand for storage still exists and is optimistic about the subsequent market.
SK Hynix's buyback plan brings to mind another storage giant, $SNDK SanDisk, which also announced a $6 billion buyback plan on April 30, and then added a $14 billion buyback plan on August 5.
From SanDisk's price trend, after the buyback plans and stable AI storage demand, the price rose steadily to around $2382 before pulling back.
These two major storage giants' buyback plans and capacity expansions seem to signal confidence to the market. So, with stable or rising AI demand, the storage sector might have a chance to see a wave of gains 🤔
However, some institutions predict that storage capacity will be insufficient until early 2027, and forecast that storage prices may peak by mid-2027, due to price declines caused by companies like ChangXin Memory 🤔
As for whether SK Hynix's price movement after the buyback announcement will be similar to SanDisk's after its April buyback announcement remains to be seen. It is also related to AI demand to some extent. Please be aware of the risks!
@OKX星球 @米花Lilac_OKX The "Regulation Crypto Assets" proposal clearly stipulates that for issuances relying on new exemptions, it will replace the current securities registration and qualification review requirements of each state. This preemption clause also covers certain secondary market transactions.
Previously, Web 3 projects had to deal not only with the SEC but also with the registration requirements of 50 individual states. For example, Reg A Tier 1 required registration in each state, resulting in very high compliance costs.
The establishment of federal law preemption means that qualified crypto projects only need to meet the exemption conditions at the federal level to deploy nationwide, without getting bogged down in the fragmented quagmire of state-level registrations.
For interstate operations and cross-border projects, this is a tangible benefit, significantly reducing the friction costs of compliant operations within the United States and making the U.S. a more attractive location for project registration.BTC liquidations in 24 hours reached $1.421 billion, with shorts accounting for 96.48%; however, OI still increased by 5.59%. ETH and SOL OI also grew by 11.94% and 8.71%, respectively. Shorts are being heavily flushed out, yet new positions continue to enter. Funding rates are heating up simultaneously: Binance BNB's 7-day deviation rose to +2.21σ, ETH to +1.99σ; OKX SOL to +1.55σ. The trend remains strong, but the market is shifting from recovery to crowding, reducing the margin for chasing gains. The real conflict comes from large holders' positions: OKX BTC large holders' position ratio is only 0.41, extremely bearish; Binance is 1.50, leaning bullish. The overall market active buy/sell volume ratio is 52.92% / 47.08%, only slightly bullish. Today's conclusion: WAIT. A bullish bias does not justify entering the market. Currently, there is a lack of confirmed pullback levels, structural stop-loss points, and qualified risk-reward ratios, so no candidate setup is formed. As soon as I opened my eyes this morning, my sister said ETH surged 20 points!!
Looking at this trend, my first reaction wasn’t "I’m making a killing," but "What was this thing doing behind my back last night?" The 24-hour low was 1906, now it’s 2267, a 20% increase, with a trading volume of 758 million. It’s indeed scary, but besides the fear, I have to stay calm.
Don’t rush to call a bull run yet. $ETH jumped straight from around 1900 to 2267 with almost no pause in between. Such a rapid rise is either driven by major positive news or a chain liquidation of shorts. I checked the perpetual contract data on OKX; last night the funding rate probably multiplied several times, and short covering pushed the price all the way up—a classic short squeeze. This kind of rise comes fast and goes fast, so don’t chase at 2267. The profit margin is small and the risk of a pullback is high.
Key levels to mark:
Support: 2200-2220. If it falls back here and holds, it means bulls still have strength, and you can consider light buying.
Resistance: 2300-2320. Only if it breaks through with volume is there a chance to see higher; otherwise, it’s just an emotional top.
In terms of strategy, I personally prefer to wait for a pullback. Not chasing after a 20% rise is my iron rule—I’ve lost too many times. If you already hold, you can take partial profits in batches to lock in gains. Don’t listen to the hype in the group chat about "stars and seas." Although the trading volume of 758 million is high, compared to ETH’s total market cap, it’s not enough to support a one-sided surge; it’s mostly short-term capital behavior. My sister made a killing because she held on, but holding on also means knowing when to sell, otherwise it’s just paper wealth.
In short, today’s ETH drama looks exciting but is hard to play. Congrats to those who made money, and don’t envy if you missed the ride. Wait for a pullback confirmation; the opportunity is still there. This is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.After more than a month of sideways movement, the crypto market has finally broken through.
A few days ago, while the US stock market was falling, Bitcoin/Ethereum remained as strong as iron. Once they stopped following the decline, it felt like a breakout was imminent.
I thought there would be a fake drop to shake out weak hands before the breakout.
However, due to the impact of the US Treasury's expansionary policy, the dollar weakened and a large amount of capital flooded into the crypto market. Short positions got trapped, and ETH surged nearly 100 points in just over ten minutes. Luckily, I closed my shorts and went long in time, catching the second wave 😂.
ETH is really crazy—rises sharply and falls sharply too, while BTC has yet to break the critical 70000 level. Waiting for the next market momentum. Where do you all see this market going? Is the bull really here? #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ $BTC $ETH #BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？
Bitcoin suddenly surged, how should beginners view this?
On the evening of August 19, the price of Bitcoin suddenly soared, once surpassing $69,000, reaching nearly $70,000 at its peak, rising more than 5% in one day. Ethereum also followed, with gains exceeding 8% at one point. If you are new to cryptocurrency, seeing such a "surge" might make you both excited and confused: Why did it suddenly rise? Can it continue to rise? Should you buy now or wait?
1. Why did it suddenly rise?
Simply put, this rise happened because "the bad news everyone expected wasn’t as bad as imagined."
On the evening of August 19, the U.S. Federal Reserve (equivalent to the "central bank" of the U.S.) released the minutes of last month’s meeting. What did the minutes say? The gist was: U.S. inflation remains high, and some within the Fed think interest rates should continue to rise. Sounds like bad news, right?
But the problem is, the market had already anticipated this. Recently, U.S. employment data has been poor, and consumer spending is weak, so everyone already had an idea. So when this "hawkish" minutes were officially released, everyone realized: oh, there wasn’t anything harsher. This feeling of "the boot has dropped" actually relieved the market.
You can understand this as: before an exam, you worry about failing, but when the test paper is handed out, although the score isn’t high, you didn’t fail — so you feel relieved.Since last night until now, I've really been beaten down by ETH to the point of despair.
I was originally waiting for the FOMC minutes to cool down the market, but instead of pushing ETH down, the minutes first wiped out my short position.
The July meeting kept the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% with a 9 to 3 vote, and Logan, Harker, and Kashkari even advocated for a 25 basis point hike.
The content was not dovish at all: inflation is not continuing to decline, policy may still tighten, and even AI financing, AI stock valuations, and US Treasury volatility were called out.
But the market traded not on the possibility of more hikes, but on the fact that there was no hike this time, and the minutes were not more hawkish than expected.
With July CPI cooling and employment weakening, the probability of no change in September remains about 67%, and since the worst-case scenario did not escalate, the suppressed risk positions began to be covered.
BTC rose from 64,300 to 70,000, and ETH was even more outrageous, surging from around 1910 to 2342. BTC just sparked sentiment, but ETH, with greater elasticity and more squeezed shorts, started moving earlier.
My 100x ETH short opened at 1952.52 was forcibly liquidated at 2278.32 😭.
The macro logic hasn't been verified yet, but I was taken out by the market first, sigh.
But this does not mean the Federal Reserve has turned dovish.
As long as inflation and long-term rates rise again later, risk assets will have to be repriced.
The most frustrating thing about the market is: the minutes did not turn dovish, yet ETH first wiped out the shorts.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Yushi's first-day surge is not just about the increase in price
It's about humanoid robots being revalued with real money on the A-share market for the first time
A 629% intraday surge is obviously crazy, but what's more worth thinking about is that the market finally doesn't have to rely solely on PPTs, videos, or financing rumors to value robot companies. Yushi has revenue, shipments, overseas customers, and a very strong scarce label: the first humanoid robot stock on the A-share market
But I don't want to just write about excitement
Robot commercialization is still early; many products remain in scenarios like exhibitions, education, research, and inspection, still far from large-scale entry into factories and homes. The first-day surge is buying scarcity, policy, imagination, and circulating shares, which doesn't mean profits have been realized yet
The most critical question now is: can it transform from "videos of running and jumping" into "machines that customers are willing to continuously repurchase"
Valuations can soar first
But performance will eventually have to land and walk
#宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ SK Hynix is making large-scale buybacks while continuing to expand production, which is actually the toughest challenge in the AI storage bull market.
Should the money be given to shareholders first, or invested in capacity first?
A 40 trillion KRW buyback is very encouraging, indicating the company believes the stock price does not reflect its true value and is also calming market anxiety about AI capital expenditures. But SK Hynix is simultaneously accelerating HBM, NAND, advanced packaging, and new factory construction. The biggest fear in the storage industry is not failing to make money, but that once profits appear, everyone rushes to expand capacity.
I think what the market should focus on this time is not the buyback scale itself,
but whether management has the ability to apply the brakes between these two things: neither missing AI memory demand nor burning future three years’ profits prematurely on equipment. Buybacks can make shareholders comfortable for a while, but investing capacity incorrectly can cause the cycle to backfire for years.
SK Hynix is not showing off cash flow now,
but proving it will not repeat the mistakes of the old storage cycle this round.
#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 The most misleading aspect of BTC's recent surge is that many people mistake "shorts being crushed" for "the bull market restarting".
I prefer to stay calm and observe first.
A strong short-term rally usually brings two things: a warming of sentiment and a chasing impulse. The former is good, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite; the latter is dangerous because many start to add positions, leverage up, and find reasons to believe it can go much further as soon as they see a breakout.
What really matters is not that big bullish candle.
It's whether there is spot support after the pullback, whether ETF funds continue to flow in, whether long-term holders are loosening up, and whether derivatives leverage is piling up too quickly again. BTC can continue to rise, but if the rally mainly relies on short squeezes and sentiment, the road ahead will be very volatile.
This round feels more like a market stress test.
It's not about whether it can surge higher, but about who is willing to take over after the surge.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Maya Protocol suspended MAYAChain yesterday. The official statement said that attackers exploited six vulnerabilities to create fake liquidity, eventually stealing about 20 BTC and other assets, with estimated losses around 1.65 million USD.
What ordinary users should remember most from this incident is not "another protocol hacked," but:
When a cross-chain protocol has issues, first check the suspension status before considering transfers or exchanges.
Maya's documentation clearly states: do not continue sending funds when the network is paused; the interface should first check the halted status.
Because cross-chain transactions are not completed with just one click, they usually go through multiple stages including deposit, confirmation, routing, and withdrawal. If any chain or pool in the middle is paused, funds may only be delayed or could be stuck in a state requiring manual intervention.
In the future, when a cross-chain protocol vulnerability is exposed, I will first do three things:
Pause new transactions; only check official announcements and status pages; confirm whether my funds have already entered the pending processing queue.
Do not trust "recovery entrances" shared in groups, and do not repeatedly sign transactions just to transfer out before the suspension.
Cross-chain is convenient, but it ties together multiple chains, liquidity pools, and validator nodes. The longer the path, the more you cannot just focus on the final balance when problems occur.
When you encounter a protocol suspension, do you wait for the official explanation first, or immediately switch to another platform? $Kuaishou-W (01024)$ The most noteworthy aspect of this Q2 financial report is not that total revenue is still growing, but that the revenue structure is changing: advertising and Keling AI are bringing new growth, while live streaming continues to decline; AI commercialization is beginning to show clearer revenue validation, but profit margins and operating profit still face pressure from investment and business restructuring. Let's look at the core data: Kuaishou's Q2 total revenue was 35.535 billion yuan, compared to 35.046 billion yuan in the same period last year; Profit for the period was 3.152 billion yuan, compared to 4.922 billion yuan in the same period last year; Adjusted net profit was 3.913 billion yuan, compared to 5.618 billion yuan in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA was 7.122 billion yuan, lower than 7.715 billion yuan in the same period last year. Revenue has not slowed down, but year-on-year pressure on profit margins is already quite clear. Revenue growth mainly came from advertising and other services. Online marketing services generated 20.6 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year, remaining the largest source of income. Other services revenue was 6.2 billion yuan, up 18.5% year-on-year. The company clearly stated that the growth mainly came from Keling's AI business. In contrast, live streaming revenue was 8.7 billion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year. This means Kuaishou's commercialization focus is shifting further from traditional live streaming to advertising, e-commerce, and AI-related services. For the platform, this is the direction for optimizing business structure; However, whether the decline in livestreaming revenue can be continuously covered by new business continues to be key to the quality of subsequent growth. Last night, the scale of ETH short liquidations was almost equivalent to the scale of long liquidations on October 11, 2025, with about 350,000 ETH forcibly liquidated.
ETH price rose by 18.5%.
Its ecosystem-related tokens L2 and DEFI increased far less than Ethereum itself.
Phenomenally, the price increase of Ethereum was caused by a short squeeze liquidation.
Whether the ETH price can stabilize and continue to rise depends on whether incremental funds enter.
At this stage, the $ETH price may form a temporary top. 🚨【Is the bear market over? Last night's White House meeting might be more important than just a piece of good news】
If you only interpret last night's White House meeting as "Trump coming out again to hype Crypto," you might be underestimating the significance of this meeting.
Because this time, sitting at the same table were not just Trump and several crypto companies, but also the SEC, CFTC, Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken, Ripple, Chainlink, as well as financial and crypto industry core players like Nasdaq, NYSE parent company ICE, and others.
More importantly, the meeting sent out several very clear signals:
🇺🇸 The U.S. is incorporating Crypto into its long-term financial strategy.
Trump mentioned again that the U.S. may continue to increase allocations to Bitcoin and other digital assets in the future.
At the same time, he urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act to promote the establishment of a clearer regulatory framework for the crypto market.
What deserves more attention is that the CFTC is studying how to allow Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. market in a compliant manner.
This means U.S. regulators are no longer just considering "whether to regulate Crypto," but rather:
How to integrate new financial models such as trading, stablecoins, on-chain financing, and prediction markets into the U.S. system.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also emphasized at the meeting that the next key battle is securing 60 votes in the Senate for the CLARITY Act.
Why is this important?
Because presidential support for Crypto may change with election cycles, but if the market structure bill is truly enacted, industry rules could shift from "political attitudes" to long-term institutions.
So I believe the biggest signal from last night is not:
❌ The U.S. is about to go crazy buying BTC
But rather:
✅ The U.S. is seriously starting to consider how to build its own Crypto financial infrastructure.
From Bitcoin to stablecoins;
From trading platforms to perpetual contracts;
From prediction markets to on-chain financing;
And even AI and digital assets.
What the U.S. is now competing for may no longer be just the price movement of a single coin, but the discourse power of the next-generation financial system.
So, is the bear market really over?
It's still too early to conclude.
But one thing is becoming increasingly clear:
Crypto is gradually transforming from a "high-risk asset" into a strategic financial infrastructure that the U.S. must participate in competing for.
This might be the real point worth paying attention to from last night's White House meeting.
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ #特朗普称通胀迎来好消息 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 Three addresses belonging to the same whale/entity are chasing a $27.93 million $ETH rally! They previously took profits and exited near the ~$4400 bull market peak 🙌
In the past 7 hours, the three addresses bought 13,313.5 ETH on-chain at an average price of $2098.43, totaling $27.93 million. They currently hold 15,718 ETH, valued at $35.65 million.
Notably: The entity's funds originated from Tornado. 11 months ago, they received ETH in batches from the mixer and sold it for stablecoins, which enabled last night's buying spree. At that time, the coin price was still around $4400. Quite a savvy move to sell high and buy low.#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
Yesterday, the July FOMC meeting minutes were officially released, revealing a tone even more hawkish than the surface-level "9 to 3" voting result.
The market was already aware that the presidents of the Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas Federal Reserve Banks advocated for an immediate 25 basis point rate hike. However, the details in the minutes disclosed an even tenser atmosphere: not only those three votes, but the text shows that "several" officials supported an immediate rate hike, and "many" officials believe that if inflation does not cool as expected, it will still be necessary to resume rate hikes in the future. Several officials specifically warned that the broad price increases over the past year across various goods and services indicate that inflation is sticky and not due to a single factor.
This dealt a blow to the market, which had been betting on a dovish stance. The market had priced in a 65% chance of no change in September, but vague terms like "several" and "many" suggest that the actual hawkish faction within the Fed is much broader than the three votes shown—there are actually more people in the room nodding in agreement to rate hikes.
The real highlight coming up is the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium from August 27 to 29. The new Fed Chair will deliver their first keynote speech since taking office, and their policy stance will provide more guidance than these past meeting minutes.
On the surface, it's 9 to 3, but beneath the surface, there are turbulent undercurrents. Do you think September will really bring an "unexpected rate hike," or is this just the Fed's habitual "verbal hawkishness" to keep more flexibility for future decisions? BTC has reached $70,000 again, but what really matters today isn't 'breaking $70,000,' but rather a significant change in market structure: ETF funds continue to expand→ ETH has started to attract significant funds, → activity on the SOL chain has rebounded in sync→ and market sentiment shifted from fear to greed overnight. This is already a step beyond yesterday's "structural rotation," but stablecoins have not shown significant expansion, and with bearish squeeze factors present, it cannot yet be directly defined as a new one-sided bull market. 📊 Market snapshot as of 08:55 HKT: BTC:$69,604|+7.89%
ETH：$2,270.30｜+18.68%
SOL: $85.54 | +11.13% The total crypto market cap has reached about $2.468 trillion, surging 7.91% in 24 hours. But there's a very important structure here: ETH +18.68% > SOL +11.13% > BTC +7.89%. This is no longer the BTC market that recovered alone in recent days. Funds have clearly started to spread toward higher Beta assets. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index shifted from 29→ 46 → 62 weeks to quickly transition from "fear" to "greed." So now the market is undergoing two changes: funds are starting to attack, but trading is also becoming crowded. 💰 ETFs: This is the key to improving the quality of today's rally. The latest ETF total net inflow: +$268.1M, including: BTC: +$189.3M
#BTC突破69000美元，这轮上涨能走多远？ Last night $BTC once approached $69,888 before retreating to above 68,000, while ETH simultaneously rose, breaking through 2,119. The entire network saw over $1.6 billion liquidated in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $1.44 billion — this is not an ordinary rebound; this is a premeditated "bull trap." Four major drivers of the rally The powder keg for this surge was long set; last night it was just ignited. ① Macro: U.S. Treasury's "quasi-QE" ignition. The long-term bond repo size was increased from $2 billion per transaction to at least $4 billion, lowering long-end yields and weakening the dollar, directly reducing the opportunity cost of holding BTC. A Standard Chartered analyst bluntly said: "This is exactly the kind of development BTC likes." ② Capital: ETF violent reversal provides ammunition. On August 17-18, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $487 million over two days, led by BlackRock's IBIT, directly reversing the previous continuous outflow pressure. ③ Regulation: Washington "warming up." The White House convened a closed-door meeting with Trump, SEC and CFTC leaders, and crypto executives; the SEC proposed the "Regulation Crypto Assets" initiative. Policy uncertainty decreased, clearing obstacles for institutional participation. ④ Leverage: Short squeeze amplifies gains. The short liquidation scale is about 8.6 times that of longs; each forced liquidation pushes prices higher, creating a death spiral of "the higher it rises, the more it explodes, the more it explodes, the higher it rises." BTC volatility has been below the historical 98 in recent weeks.The pressure from U.S. debt may have become so great that the U.S. Treasury Department has to personally step in to "stabilize the market."
The scale of long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases has increased from $2 billion per transaction to at least $4 billion.
After the news broke, the 30-year Treasury yield quickly fell, gold, $BTC, and U.S. stock futures all strengthened simultaneously, while the dollar came under pressure.
Market sentiment was instantly ignited.
But here is a detail:
Do not interpret this as the "Federal Reserve loosening monetary policy again."
Treasury bond repurchases ≠ QE.
It is more like supplementing liquidity to the long-term bond market to ease short-term pressure.
Injecting $4 billion into a U.S. Treasury market worth tens of trillions of dollars cannot change the long-term U.S. debt problem.
But it sends an important signal:
Debt pressure is forcing the U.S. to seek a new balance.
And this is precisely why the long-term logic for $BTC and gold continues to strengthen.
As U.S. debt keeps growing, whether through interest rate cuts, increased liquidity, or lower financing costs, the market will essentially have to reconsider one question:
How long can the purchasing power of the dollar be maintained?
Gold's value comes from scarcity.
Bitcoin is even more special — its supply cap will not change because of increased U.S. debt.
As for $ETH, if it enters a rate-cutting cycle in the future, the dollar weakens, and market risk appetite returns, high Beta assets may see greater elasticity.
So I won’t simply interpret tonight’s rally as "the bull market has arrived."
It’s more like a signal:
The world’s largest debt market is releasing pressure.
And every time the monetary system changes, it spurs a revaluation of new assets.
BTC, ETH, and gold may be entering a new cycle that belongs to them.SEC meeting canceled, market is repricing the "regulatory timeline"
On August 14, the SEC canceled the crypto rulemaking meeting, followed by the Senate failing to advance the CLARITY Act before the August recess. These two events combined have caused a subtle but important shift in market expectations regarding the "regulatory timeline."
Previously, the market generally believed 2026 would be a "big year" for crypto institutionalization — with the CLARITY Act passing, the GENIUS Act implementation, and approval of ETF staking functions. Now, it appears the timeline is being extended. SEC Chair Paul Atkins issued a statement on August 18 emphasizing "exemptions suitable for crypto market innovation," but his wording was cautious and did not provide a clear time commitment. The probability of the bill passing in the prediction market has been pushed down from 82% to the 20% range. This is bad news for short-term traders — catalysts are delayed. But for long-term allocators, a delay in regulation does not mean cancellation. The regulatory path will continue, and bipartisan consensus on digital asset legislation still exists. The key is to recognize: BTC allocation logic does not depend on the timing of bill passage — its identity has already been confirmed by the market; ETH’s valuation re-rating heavily depends on the bill’s details — staking, DeFi, and RWA compliance boundaries all need the bill to define them. With the regulatory timeline extended, for BTC it means "keep waiting," for ETH it means "keep enduring." Patience has never been evenly distributed to everyone. 2026.8.20 Daytime Market Analysis
News is expected to be short-term bullish but medium- and long-term bearish. Currently, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, and some officials support rate cuts. Regarding the current news, medium- and long-term benefits have not yet materialized significantly; it can only be considered short-term bullish.
On the day: The current price is in the final stage of a residual rise, news is bullish, with a sharp increase pushing towards a high level.
Resistance levels: 71600, 80500, 2430, 2520
Support levels: 2230, 2160, 68500, 67200
Ethereum on the day: Aggressive long positions at the current price of 2265, with additional longs at 2230 and 2240; stop loss at 2210; take profit at 2350, 2330, 2400 [If the U.S. market does not reach the take profit, long positions should also exit]
Bitcoin on the day: 4-hour consolidation breakout, gradually pushing towards a high; long positions around 68500 ± 200 points; stop loss at 68000; take profit at 71000, 71500, 72500
Combined with live broadcast and technical analysis, control position size and manage risk; for reference only #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 $BTC $ETH