Orbit Post Sitemap

STRK rallies strongly against the trend, this surge is really fierce. The overall market is crashing hard, altcoins are collectively lying flat—but STRK surged over 38% in 24 hours and rose 70% over the week, with 24h trading volume skyrocketing 227% to break through $440 million, a classic volume breakout, with funds frantically accumulating. Why the surge? 1. Narrative upgrade: Starknet is exploring a shift from being an Ethereum L2 "solo flight" to an independent L1, focusing on "quantum-resistant" security, fully igniting market imagination! 2. Tied to Bitcoin: launched the privacy yield asset strkBTC and opened BTC staking. STRK has upgraded from a pure L2 governance token to the "security cornerstone of the BTCFi ecosystem," coupled with $100 million in token subsidies, successfully attracting trillions in BTC capital inflow. But don’t get carried away. Because starting October 15, 163 million $STRK tokens will unlock monthly, continuously released to early investors until March 15 next year. Massive selling pressure looms overhead; the stronger the rally now, the harsher the dump might be at unlock. If you hold a position, take profits in batches and don’t be greedy. If you don’t hold a position, don’t chase the high and become the bag holder. After all, the most expensive lesson in a bull market is "it can still go up."On-chain analyst Specter tracked and found that hundreds of Ledger user wallets were hacked across Ethereum, TRON, and Bitcoin chains, with total losses exceeding 86 million USD. CZ then commented: the incident seems to have occurred only in the supply chain, where a distributor sold counterfeit or tampered devices. Ledger has suspended sales and shipments from the involved distributor CryptoBilis. Cold wallets are sold with the promise that "private keys never touch the internet," but once the supply chain is tampered with, this line of defense is fundamentally compromised. Firmware can be verified, and mnemonic phrases can be self-generated, but no one disassembles the device daily to verify the chip—the attack surface is never on-chain, but in the machine in the user's hands. When buying a hardware wallet, the channel is more important than the model. $BTC $ETH $BNB ELARVON (ELVN) Under the Microscope: What Investors Should Watch Beyond the Price Emerging cryptocurrency projects often attract attention through market narratives, but experienced researchers tend to focus on a different question: what can actually be verified? ELARVON (ELVN) presents an interesting case for infrastructure-focused research because its ecosystem includes a dedicated Proof-of-Work blockchain explorer. Rather than relying exclusively on promotional claims, observers can use the eOrder Book Strength Ranking 5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book $XDP large buy and sell costs both decreased, small buy costs almost unchanged. Simulated slippage for 100,000 scale buy/sell dropped from 1.08%/1.06% to 0.90%/0.95%. 10,000 buy still about 0.16%. $MAGIC large buy cost decreased. Simulated slippage for 100,000 scale buy dropped from 0.70% to 0.44%. $CT after order amplification, slippage on both entry and exit sides increased significantly. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.08%/0.09%, for 100,000 is 0.47%/0.48%.I find that posts about shorting are not very popular. But right now, I really expect BTC to reach 79,000. I can't go long when I'm bearish. So I have to carefully look for ways to short and trade shorts at the best positions. Let's put together a BTC shorting guide. To conclude: BTC can be shorted anywhere above 82,500. Shorting here still offers good value. Of course, shorting BTC around 83,850 offers double the opportunity and position satisfaction. The daytime rebound only reached about 83,500. At night, if a small M double top (on the 1-hour chart) forms, we can patiently wait for that position as well. GRASS Market Analysis (English Translation) Aligning with the current conversation time of 2026-10-09 21:49 (UTC+8): My practical expectation for tomorrow (10/10) is sideways trading in the 0.60–0.64 range at elevated levels, with resistance at 0.6415/0.65 above and support at 0.5937/0.60 below. Only if price holds above 0.65 could easily lead to a retest of 0.56. With the unlock/airdrop window in late October approaching, news flow will amplify volatility. Not investment advice sizes light.Can Bitcoin and Ethereum kick off the next market rally? The conditions are forming but have not yet materialized. The bullish case mainly relies on institutions. Citibank raised the 12-month target price for $BTC to $113,000 and for $ETH to $3,028, expecting crypto products to attract about $5 billion in inflows over the next year. JPMorgan stated that since 2026, digital asset inflows have totaled around $50 billion, with ETF demand turning positive in August. However, there is clear divergence: Bitcoin ETFs still saw a single-day net inflow of $119 million even as they retreated, while Ethereum ETFs experienced six consecutive days of net outflows totaling about $408 million. Ethereum's incremental growth is in staking—Fidelity has applied for FETH, allowing up to 100% of ETH holdings to be staked and yield distributed; if approved, it will become an interest-bearing instrument. Risks remain: leverage is above historical averages, Bitcoin once plunged nearly $2,000 in 20 minutes causing about $400 million in long liquidations; if rate cuts fall short of expectations, liquidity will be constrained. Sustained ETF net inflows, approval of Ethereum staking ETFs, and implementation of rate cuts—at least one of these must be realized for the market to gain momentum. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #Securitize推出12只链上美股 $SECZ 12 US stocks have been tokenized on-chain, with none of the issuers participating. ▪️ On 10/8, Securitize launched Securitize Stocks on Solana, with an initial batch of 12 stocks ▪️ Targets: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Tesla, Meta, Amazon, Netflix, and 12 others ▪️ 1:1 physical backing, with ordinary ownership and voting rights — not offshore synthetic wrappers ▪️ The key is identity: Securitize is a third-party tokenization service provider, not the issuer of these companies ▪️ Only available to qualified investors in the US and EU ▪️ On the day of the announcement, SECZ rose 14.99%, while SOL dropped 4.04% The disagreement is not about whether stocks can be tokenized, but about who has the right to tokenize someone else's stocks — if the issuer does not consent, whether voting rights count is the real issue. Third-party tokenization bypasses the issuer by holding the underlying stocks themselves and issuing certificates. It works because brokers and custodians provide backing in the middle; it can fail because the same group can revoke it at any time. This direction is for observation — first see if a second party follows suit, then watch the secondary liquidity of these 12 stocks.Ledger Hardware Wallet Supply Chain Attack: $86 Million Stolen! Ledger officially just issued a warning: an investigation is underway into an asset theft incident involving Southeast Asian users, with the related devices purchased from dealers. Official advice: If you bought a Ledger hardware wallet in the last 90 days, don’t rush to use it yet. How big is the loss? On-chain investigator Specter estimates the stolen funds come from hundreds of wallets on Bitcoin $BTC, Ethereum $ETH, and the TRON network, totaling over $86 million. Security researcher tanuki42 previously estimated over $72 million, and the number is still rising. Why can hardware wallets be compromised? This is not a software vulnerability; it’s a physical supply chain attack. Hardware security experts demonstrated a tampered hardware wallet: a miniature spy chip implanted inside, connected on the SPI bus between the secure element and the OLED screen. How it works: it passively intercepts the mnemonic phrase displayed on your screen, “reads” it using pattern recognition, then sends the mnemonic directly out via a built-in 4G module and eSIM. The entire process bypasses your computer and triggers no software alarms. The security of hardware wallets has never been just about software. Any link in the chain from factory to your hands can be tampered with.Thailand has given the green light; starting from October 16, $ETH and similar assets can be listed on local stock exchanges, with regulatory custody and single-coin exposure capped at over 80%. Sounds impressive. But I took a quick look at the price—2491, still down 1.5% in the last 24 hours, and down nearly 8% over the week, stuck in the middle without moving up or down. This is a typical case of a positive development triggering a sell-off beforehand; those who bet on the news early have already been bought out. Southeast Asian funds that really want to come in will have to go through the compliant, slow process—not something that will clear tomorrow. $ETH #BTC spot ETF sees the largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months $BTC dipped to 80400! Is this a shakeout or will the big coin continue to probe lower? Looking at the market, the big coin just had a sharp drop, hitting a low of 80400 before quickly pulling back, now fluctuating around 82849. The 15-minute candlestick shows a long lower shadow pin bar, short-term support is temporarily holding. MA5 and MA20 moving averages are intertwined, bulls and bears are tugging. Negative news stack: MARA sold 996 BTC, worth 81.13 million dollars. Plus, large ETF funds fled a few days ago, the Federal Reserve minutes leaned hawkish, macro pressure still looming overhead. The market is very frustrating now, the pin bar looks like there is support, but the resistance at the high point of 83530 is heavy, breaking through in one go is not that easy. Short-term idea: focus on the support at the low point of 80400 below, if it holds there is still a chance for consolidation; once broken, the bears' space opens up. Do not heavily bet on contracts, pin bar moves can easily trigger stop losses, better to play with small positions. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Let's discuss this topic in the comments. My income actually relies more on the long-term gains from spot holdings. My core positions are OKB, gold, BTC, and ETH. I don't hold these for short-term speculation; I hold them to ride through cycles. OKB$OKB has deflationary burn and ecosystem expansion logic supporting it, gold$XAUT is a hard asset to hedge against USD credit risk, and BTC$BTC and ETH are the cornerstones of the crypto space. The long-term trend for these assets is upward. I do short-term trading too, but with small positions; I take profits and exit quickly, never getting attached. What truly allows my account to grow steadily is the compounding effect of these spot base holdings over time. Chan Zhong Shuo Chan mentioned that leverage is just an amplifier, not an engine, and I strongly agree with this. I've used leverage and have been liquidated before, so now I only use leverage on very small short-term positions with strict stop-losses. Spot trading is different; spot doesn't require stop-losses. As long as the logic holds, just hold on. So back to the question, my returns rely more on trending markets and holding spot assets. Win rate and risk-reward ratio are just supplementary. Choosing the right assets and holding them is far more important than constantly studying entry signals. The long-term logic of spot holdings is what truly lets you sleep peacefully. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 @OKX星球 Zhao Changpeng has even come out to warn about Ledger, so this matter is not minor. To put it plainly, some hardware wallets bought through dealers might be fake or tampered with. On-chain investigators estimate losses have already exceeded $86 million, affecting hundreds of wallets. Previously, people feared private key leaks, but now the devices themselves might be compromised from the source. This is much worse than phishing. My stance is simple: if you bought a Ledger from unofficial channels in the last 90 days, don’t rush to use it. If it’s already set up, generate a new seed phrase and move your coins. Hardware wallets were supposed to be the last line of defense, but now that line has cracked from within. So the question is, is the cold wallet in your hand really cold? #美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 #三星钱包将上线USDC跨境转账 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $ZEC There has been a large net outflow from the BTC spot ETF, and this signal must be taken seriously #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 When I saw the ETF fund data, my heart skipped a beat; this is the largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months. Many people might not take this seriously, thinking short-term fund inflows and outflows are normal. But it’s important to understand that ETF fund flows represent the real choices of institutional money. Institutions starting to exit en masse indicates that this batch of funds is already cautious about the current price level and no longer willing to hold the chips. Looking at the market, after the recent rebound, the market has been in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. One major driver pushing the market up before was the continuous inflow of ETF funds; now that the trend has reversed and funds are withdrawing, it naturally puts considerable selling pressure on Bitcoin. However, there’s no need to panic and call for a big drop immediately. A single-day outflow does not equal an immediate trend reversal; the key is whether it can stabilize over the next two or three days. If fund outflows continue, then caution is warranted, and a correction is likely to persist; if it’s just a one-time exit, then the market still has a chance to stabilize again. I am still holding long positions in ETH and BTC, but I have raised my alert level and will no longer blindly add to my positions. During such institutional fund fluctuations, the worst thing is to subjectively predict the market. It’s much more important to honestly watch key support levels and protect your position’s bottom line than to guess price movements.After BTC dipped to 80400, it quickly made a strong rebound, surging all the way to 83530. This deep V-shaped move is a textbook-level bullish recovery, but the subsequent pressure-driven pullback (currently at 82749) has cooled the overheated market. Breaking down the 15-minute chart, although this rebound was rapid, the current price is still suppressed below the SuperTrend (83301). The 83500 level is not only a previous high but also a dense selling zone for short-term profit-taking. The KDJ indicator hovers in a weak zone (28.9), combined with the 7-day moving average still negative, indicating this is merely a technical oversold rebound rather than a return to a one-sided bull market. For traders holding 10x leverage, this level of shakeout is extremely risky. The 82300-82400 range is the short-term moving average defense line; if broken, a second dip to 80400 is highly likely. For bulls to truly take control, volume must increase and hold above 83500. During this consolidation and recovery phase, respecting the market and controlling your trades is far more important than blindly calling longs. Protecting your principal is the only way to qualify for witnessing the next new high. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $PUMP precise stop-loss sweep, went down again, so unlucky? This thing is still shorting on the rebound, daily divergence, the trend should be over.💥Targeting Long Positions! BTC ETH ZEC Chain Deleveraging, Bottom-Fishers Beware of a Second Trap My core view: This round of the market is a targeted cleanup of long position leverage, not a two-way squeeze of longs and shorts. Even if a large number of long positions are liquidated, it does not mean the market has bottomed; do not rush to catch the rebound just because of liquidation data. BTC, ETH, ZEC liquidation data resonance: ✅BTC: 24h total liquidation 120 million, long position liquidation 110 million, volume surge triggered a chain stampede downwards ✅ETH: 24h total liquidation 83.18 million, longs account for 73.2 million, a large amount of faith chips shaken out ✅ZEC: 24h liquidation 22.62 million, almost all longs, altcoin liquidation losses feel even more severe Long liquidation is merely a high-level leveraged chip exchange, not an immediate market reversal. After killing longs, a long bottoming phase will follow, requiring the holders’ sentiment to be exhausted before repair opportunities appear. ⚠️ Two fatal operations to definitely avoid: 1. Exiting with a stop loss, then immediately chasing the rebound 2. Adding leverage to average down after being trapped Control your hands, don’t blindly guess the bottom, patiently wait for clear stabilization signals on the chart. Trading insight: Liquidation is just chip turnover, not a bottom signal; rushing in will only lead to a second round of harvesting. $BTC $ETH $ZECThe derivatives tape just completely cleared out. 🤯 A massive $1.17B in long liquidations just hit the market as $BTC wicked down to retest local support. Behind the scenes, $407M in ETF outflows slammed the brakes on institutional momentum, while macro pressure sent the US 10-year yield screaming past 5.3%. This isn't a natural dump; it's a structural leverage wipeout. Are you panic-selling your spot, or are you bidding this flush? 👇 #BTC #CryptoNews #OKXOrbit #Liquidations Is today's rebound of Bitcoin and Ethereum a reversal? I feel it's not yet. After these few days of very intense decline, the market has seen a rebound. The rebound strength of $BTC and $ETH is about the same, but $ZEC seems a bit crazy. $BTC is currently in an oversold rebound. Today, this big guy fell directly to 80315 as if demanding the bulls' lives, which made me feel a bit hypoglycemic. It almost broke below the 80,000 mark but fortunately held. Looking at the weekly chart, it is still relatively weak. The main reason for today's rise is the slight easing of the Middle East situation and the drop in oil prices, giving Bitcoin some breathing room. However, a large outflow of funds appeared in the spot ETF, indicating the market funds are very cautious. Now it depends on whether the support in the 81000–80000 range can hold, with resistance around 83500. Currently, it is still a corrective downtrend. To confirm a trend reversal, we need to see if trading volume can increase and if key levels can effectively hold. $ETH is also slowly starting to recover along with Bitcoin today. The main pressure now is the overall high market risk, ETF funds are withdrawing, long leverage is being forcefully liquidated, and institutional attitudes are unclear. The support level is at 2400–2450, with resistance near 2500. Now it depends on whether $BTC can perform stronger to lead $ETH to move upward a bit. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 一边是链上数据提示未实现利润冲上21个月新高，一边是有人开始用"淘金热"形容这个市场。历史经验告诉我们：最危险的时刻，往往不是坏消息满天飞的时候，而是所有人都在数自己赚了多少的时候。 先看三条信息。第一，链上分析机构指出，交易者的未实现利润达到21个月高位，并提示这可能意味着回调临近——这个指标衡量的是"账面浮盈的厚度"，而不是价格方向；第二，有知名持有者用"淘金热"描述当前阶段，并给出极长期的乐观数字，这类表态在情绪上是加速器；第三，也是最值得注意的一条：美国现货ETF最近5个交易日的净流入从26亿美元级别降到约23.646亿美元，虽然仍是净流入，但**流入速度在放缓**。与此同时价格是稳的：BTC现报83,495.4美元（24小时 +0.5%，近一周 -0.6%），恐惧贪婪指数从73回落到71。 为什么"未实现利润高"是风险信号？因为它代表两件事：一是浮盈筹码多，任何风吹草动都可能触发兑现；二是市场对回调的承受力变低——同样幅度的下跌，会让更多人的利润变成亏损。这和"价格高低"是两回事：价格可以很高但筹码集中、浮盈薄，也可以横盘但浮盈厚。现在属于后者。 但我不认为这等于"马上要跌"$BTC continues to adjust, currently trading near 82000, with an intraday low of 80344, down about 1.5% in 24 hours. ETH has fallen below the 2500 mark, with most major coins generally following the decline. Sentiment has further weakened, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 58, down 5 points from yesterday. The 7-day average is 66, still in the greed zone but declining for several consecutive days. The total liquidation across the network in 24 hours is about $1.191 billion, with long positions liquidated at $1.056 billion, accounting for nearly 89%. Nearly 192,000 people were liquidated, with long leverage facing large-scale clearing. The funding side is also under pressure, with spot ETF net outflows of about $485 million in a single day, the largest single-day redemption since the end of June. The cumulative fund flow in October is a net outflow. From the chart perspective, 81500 to 82000 is a short-term support area; if broken, the psychological level of 80000 below is expected. The resistance zone has shifted to 83000 to 83500; until it recovers, any rebound is still considered a weak correction. On the macro side, the Federal Reserve's September minutes released a hawkish signal, with most officials believing another rate hike may occur before the end of the year, suppressing the overall performance of risk assets. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Here's a saying for everyone: A genius is a genius even without leverage; leverage can lift the Earth, but you need to have weight.$HYPE This ID's view: The price completed a head pivot break from the high of 91.302, then dropped sharply to 82.013 before rebounding for a correction. Now the rebound phase has ended and the price is turning down again. This rise is merely a temporary rebound within the downtrend; the overall bearish trend has not been reversed. Entry: You can try shorting when the rebound meets resistance and shows signs of stalling and falling back. Stop loss: If the 30-minute candlestick closes back above the previous purple pivot lower boundary. Chan theory structure: On the 30-minute level, after the upper head pivot was effectively broken down, a complete downward segment was formed with a secondary rebound in the middle. The current rebound has ended, starting a new downward movement. The price has not recovered the previously lost pivot zone; the downtrend structure continues, and no bottom reversal signal has appeared yet. Wyckoff volume-price observation: Initially, during the break and decline phase, bears increased volume and strength. During the subsequent rebound, volume gradually shrank. In this new probe downward, bear volume has again increased, indicating no large-scale capital inflow for bottom-fishing. Key observation: Pay close attention to the support near the previous low below. If the support is broken, the downtrend will extend further; if the selling pressure can be absorbed at this level, there is a possibility of consolidation and bottom formation. Closely monitor the candlestick close at the support level.$CT CT fell more than 16% and is close to the lowest price. Has the logic of turning positive yesterday failed? Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 0.31132—0.3738 USDT, change -16.14%, trading volume about 5.55 million USDT. Today's low continues to decrease, and the observed quotes have not left the lower boundary. The partial rebound yesterday did not stabilize and continue. Turning positive only describes the return from a certain window starting point and cannot guarantee that supply has been fully absorbed. If the rebound fails to recover the midpoint and continues to hit new lows, withdraw the repair judgment; if the new low is quickly recovered and continuously retested stably, then reassess.$BTC rebounded from 80351 all the way up to 83499, gaining over 3000 points in a short period. Unfortunately, after the surge, it couldn't hold above 83000, and the price fell back to around 82600. Brothers who chased the long here are probably feeling uncomfortable again. This round of long positions opened near 81482.9, mainly considering the opportunity for a rebound after a sharp drop. The current mark price is 82638.2, with an unrealized profit of about 1.42 times. The four-hour MACD bearish bars continue to shrink, followed by a low-level golden cross, and KDJ is rising simultaneously, confirming the rebound has indeed taken place. However, changes have already appeared on the 15-minute chart: MACD has turned into a death cross, the green bars switched to red bars, and KDJ is quickly dropping, indicating increasing short-term pullback pressure after the spike. Hourly momentum has also weakened, with obvious resistance forming near 83499. If 82500 can hold later, there is still a chance to challenge 83000 to 83500 again. If it breaks below 82500, a short-term retest near 81800 may continue. Currently, the preference is to protect unrealized profits first and wait for a pullback confirmation before deciding the next direction. $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #以太坊Glamsterdam upgrade lands on Sepolia testnet The leader has something to say The Ethereum Glamsterdam upgrade has landed on the Sepolia testnet, ePBS and BALs, gas limit raised from 60 million to 200 million. The technical direction is sound, aiming for L1 scaling. But ETH only rose 0.44%, the testnet bullish news can't support the price. Why? The mainnet activation time is not set, Hoodi testnet is also not confirmed, still far from launch. ETF net outflows continue, funds are withdrawing. Long-term US Treasury yields at 5.7% are weighing on risk assets, technical upgrades are slow variables, not driving short-term buying. ETH is currently weaker than BTC, ETF funds are flowing back into BTC and out of ETH, the divergence is clear. The upgrade won't change the capital flow. My 86500 short on BTC is still open. The logic hasn't changed, bullish news is priced in, heavy resistance above, funds are withdrawing. Stop loss at 87500, target 84500 to 85000. Time to reduce positions, keep the rest at breakeven. Don't bottom-fish ETH, wait for ETF funds to return. Control position size, no heavy bets. The high interest rate environment remains, BTC is unlikely to strengthen independently in the short term. Set stop losses on orders, don't hold through. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The above analysis is time-sensitive, orders must have stop losses set, good luck.ZK has dropped back to 0.0132. A year ago, everyone called it the “Ethereum ZK legitimate successor,” now everyone calls it a “0.01 tier long-term resident.” Let's pour some cold water first: ATH 0.321 → now 0.0132, down over 95% On 10/17, 173 million tokens will unlock (investors + team, about 1.6% of circulating supply), and by 2028, 17.3% of total supply still needs to be released 24h fee revenue only $465, ZKsync Era TVL about $15.88 million, MC/TVL nearly 9 times Top 10 wallets control 59%, on-chain holders just over 800, extremely thin distribution But bulls aren’t without cards: Bundesbank is testing Prividium, ZK technology narrative remains the most “institutional” among L2s SEC’s Peirce calls for ZK to do KYC, Prividium’s core code is open source ZKnomics / TPP-12 aims to channel fees and enterprise authorization income back to buyback and burn, but it’s not implemented yet If 0.0123 holds, 0.0132–0.0143 can still be a pull; if it breaks 0.0123, then back to 0.0106 before reconsidering So ZK is not a “junk coin” now; it’s an L2 specimen with a very high technical ceiling, a very solid token floor (downside), and a distant ceiling (upside). Institutions use Prividium, retail holds ZK tokens, Matter Labs runs institutional BD with a monthly allocation of 67 million tokens—these three groups are basically not in the same market. As of the current conversation time 2026-10-09 21:49 (UTC+8) Alignment: When you say "October 10," you mean tomorrow; "last night" refers to the evening of October 8. Last night/last 24 hours price: From the public snapshots I can find, 3Commas shows GRASS at about 0.6348**, with a 24-hour range of **0.5649 / 0.6415**, 24h volume about **40.52 million, short-term recommendation is Buy; this corresponds to the statement "last night to early this morning surged to around **0.64**." However, I haven't found authoritative media confirming the "exact highest price on the evening of October 8," so a more cautious statement is: **the 24-hour high is about 0.6415, then returning to my practical expectation for tomorrow (10/10): oscillating at a high level between 0.60–0.64**, with resistance at **0.6415/0.65** and support at **0.5937/0.60**; if volume increases and it stabilizes above 0.65, continuation is expected, but if it falls below 0.59, it may retest 0.56. Approaching the late October unlock/airdrop window, news will amplify volatility. Not investment advice, keep your $GRASS position light $BTC The wave in March 2023 was not an ordinary correction; it was a cascade of bank system failures combined with reinforced expectations of interest rate hikes. Silvergate liquidation, Powell's testimony hinting at higher and longer-lasting rates, the SVB bank run and takeover, Circle's approximately $3.3 billion exposure at SVB pushing USDC down to around 0.87, and Signature being shut down—all within a few days, liquidity, stablecoins, and custody channels simultaneously faced issues. The probability of such a complete combination happening again is low. Therefore, directly comparing the current pullback to that event and assuming a break below 75,000 is logically tight. If last night was not the low, it looks more like a further probe into the 78,000–79,000 range in the past couple of days to fully release panic, rather than a trend-breaking support breach. What’s more worth comparing is the subsequent movement: that early bull run was also marked by rate hike panic and consecutive failures, and after the correction ended, it rallied about 45% within roughly two weeks. Early bull runs often complete accumulation and rallies amid FUD; low-position chips are more valuable than the volatility itself. Don’t get shaken out by a normal pullback.Shorting $ZRO, opening average price 2.1785, mark price 2.0216, ROE +144.04%, holding 20x position. Not simply bearish on ZK, but volume and price don't match: the pullback rally is not supported by volume, the decline shows volume, and the buying is just for show. Repeated spikes above 2.17 look like a takeoff, but in reality, it's sweeping longs then pressing down. Only follow after a confirmed breakdown, no guessing bottoms or catching knives. The move from 2.1785 to 2.0216 shows the bears controlling the rhythm. Don't get carried away with 20x leverage; 144% on paper is not realized profit. Use stop-loss to protect capital, don't chase sharp drops, exit if the pullback fails, admit mistakes if price returns to the entry zone. If no position, wait for the next volume-price confirmation failure before acting. $BTC $ETH This market move is acting really wild. I have two positions, both currently underwater. 🔴 $ETH: 22x isolated long, average price 2492, current price 2478. Although it only dropped a little, the 22x leverage is tightening the margin, with an unrealized loss close to 5600U. The current maintenance margin still has a 10x safety buffer, so no liquidation for now, but the funding rate keeps eating away. 🔴 $SPCX: 10x long, average price 165.97, current price 163.6. This position is actually quite awkward, neither up nor down, with an unrealized loss of nearly 2000U. The current strategy is very conflicted: ETH is the market indicator, I think below 2500 is a golden opportunity to add and lower the average price; but for altcoins like SPCX, I'm afraid it might drop and never come back.The short entry positions given by the whiteboard are generally: BTC first position at 82690, ETH at 2498. Intraday reminder: ETH took profit early at 2479; BTC added a supplementary short at 83050, has already halved and reduced the position, currently continuing to hold the base short position at 82690.Brothers rushing in hastily, have you been fooled? I warned this morning, don't rush to chase longs. Retail investors swarming in is exactly the scene the manipulative whales want to see. Think about it, $ZEC can't really rise above 1240, why? Because above that is a dense cluster of trapped positions; how could the whales kindly push it up to help you get out? Now the 1200 defense battle has started again, and today it will most likely be broken. Look at the candlesticks, ZEC fell from 1494 to 1112, now a weak rebound near 1240 is already losing steam, volume can't keep up at all. No real money buying in, it's all propped up by retail investor sentiment, this is a typical downward consolidation. Once those chasing longs get trapped, a new round of stampede will immediately begin. I entered a short at 1405, currently floating profit is 137%, the forced liquidation price is far away at 2712, nowhere near liquidation. I will keep holding. If it rebounds to 1230-1250, I will continue to add to my short position, stop loss set above 1400, target first at 1100. Remember, as long as the bulls don't die, the downtrend won't stop. Don't gamble your real money on the whales' conscience. Go with the trend, follow the direction of the blade's edge, only then can you survive till the end. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $ETH has rebounded from 2405 to around 2500 this time, prompting many to start calling for a reversal. However, the price touched 2500 and then fell back again, indicating that the resistance at this level is clearly not easy to overcome. Previously, a long position was opened near 2449.5, with the current mark price at 2480.77, showing an unrealized profit of about 1.27 times. The entry was based on a short-term recovery opportunity after a consecutive sharp drop; after bottoming near 2405, the hourly chart showed consecutive bullish candles, MACD formed a golden cross at a low level, and rebound conditions gradually took shape. However, as the market has reached this point, the situation has changed. The hourly MACD red bars are starting to shorten, KDJ is diverging downward, and the J value has dropped below the zero line, indicating increasing short-term correction pressure. Although the four-hour MACD shows weakening bearish momentum, it remains below the zero line overall, so a trend reversal cannot yet be confirmed. Next, the 2470 to 2449 range is a short-term area to watch; holding this range still offers a chance to retest 2500. If it breaks below 2449, the rebound rhythm may be interrupted. Since profits have already been taken, there is no need to increase risk just to gain a little more. $BTC $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Blumenthal pointed out in the letter that the related high-yield arrangements come at the expense of U.S. national security and proposed three stringent compliance and audit requirements. Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Checks: Cantor is required to explain the supervisory mechanisms for Tether, verifying whether it complies with U.S. Bank Secrecy Act regulations and international sanctions rules. Cutting Off Shadow Banking Funding Channels: The Senate investigation report states that about 84% of sanctioned-related wallets globally have long used USDT to bypass the traditional U.S. dollar clearing system. USDT is regarded as a liquidity channel for Russia and Iran to evade sanctions. The investigation demands Cantor disclose what inspection and interception measures have been implemented for such illicit usage scenarios. Internal Communication Records Audit: A deadline is set to submit all correspondence records between Howard Lutnick and Tether, including private communications after he left Cantor. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Just finished watching tonight's market, and a detail makes me increasingly feel that in the crypto space nowadays, just focusing on K-lines is really not enough. Yesterday $BTC was still struggling around 83,000 USD, but in the blink of an eye, it dropped to a low of 80,351 USD. $ETH was even more brutal, directly crashing to 2,405 USD; many long-position brothers probably didn't even have time to react with stop-losses. But strangely, today BTC rebounded back to around 82,600, and ETH also recovered above 2,480. Is this a shakeout or a continuation of the downtrend? I specifically checked the external markets and found a very clear logic behind this drop. First is crude oil. The attack near the Strait of Hormuz has made the market worry about supply disruptions; Brent crude oil surged more than 4% yesterday at one point. The higher the oil price, the harder it is for inflationary pressure to ease. Meanwhile, the latest Fed minutes show that most officials believe rate hikes may still be needed before the end of the year. The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to around 5.36% this week. What does this mean? The cost of capital is getting more expensive, and the market's tolerance for high-risk assets is declining. Naturally, assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL are under pressure. Even more brutal is the leverage liquidation. Data shows that the last 24-hour liquidation scale reached about 1.19 billion USD, with over 1 billion USD coming from longs. ETH liquidation amounts even exceeded BTC. This explains why the market fell so fast: macro news triggered selling, and forced liquidations further amplified the decline. Fortunately, today Trump signaled no immediate military escalation against Iran, oilShort selling Reason for short selling In Figure 2 4H, after VWAP broke down, it rebounded again but was suppressed once more. The view remains unchanged, still bearish. Even if stopped out, as long as it breaks below 83000 again, the short position will continue. Regarding whether it is strong, opening Figure 3 15M shows volume increasing each time, but there is still a long upper shadow, indicating sufficient selling pressure. Also, this is the breakout of the trendline for this small downtrend and a rebound to the 0.618 level, so the short is still based on price action. The short-term long position from this morning has also reached the take-profit level. The rebound is still strong $BTC 看到那份30倍仓位明细的时候，我手心是出汗的。 你敢在爆仓价附近主动接刀吗？ 一位大户刚被摊开底牌。BTC在81987到80832之间连续两次大额补仓，均价拉到81411.5，眼下浮盈12.71%，这一段算是把第一波下跌扛住了。ETH就惨烈得多，2514到2447区间三次重注，清一色30倍，现在浮亏59.64%，成了整个组合里最烫的那块铁。还有一个灵活仓位，用来放大波动、赌一次像样的反抽。 我盯着这组数字看了很久。市场此刻真正在交易的，其实不是方向，而是杠杆的存活问题。30倍意味着ETH只要再往下走一点点，强平就会替市场做决定。所以这不是一份持仓，是一张被挂在半空中的脆弱性地图。 偏多的路径很清楚。如果ETH能在2447上方稳住，空头挤压会来得又快又猛，因为高倍多头的对手盘同样拥挤，一旦价格反抽，止损和空头回补会形成向上的燃料。BTC那边已经用浮盈证明了承接力，只要它不补跌，情绪就有锚。 但风险恰恰藏在没人愿意看的地方。第一，ETH的浮亏幅度已经说明这波下杀超出了他的预期，补仓摊平在30倍下不是勇气，是时间换空间的赌。第二，这种明牌仓位一旦被市场看到，就会变成猎杀目标，价格往强平区靠拢#SpaceX拟购频谱拓展移动通信 $SPCX What is being bought is spectrum, challenging the moat of the three major carriers. ▪️ SpaceX has signed a final agreement with Grain Management to acquire its nationwide 800MHz low-band spectrum portfolio ▪️ Can acquire up to 14MHz paired spectrum in a single transaction; deal still requires FCC approval ▪️ Low-band frequencies have good wall penetration and wide coverage, the main band used by US carriers for broad coverage ▪️ After the news, AT&T fell 6.8% after hours, T-Mobile fell 5.4%, Verizon fell 5% ▪️ Previously on 10/6, FCC approved 15,000 satellite-connected phones, with half expiring in 2032 and all by 2035 ▪️ SPCX closed at 171.09 on 10/5, still below the June IPO opening price; full unlock on 12/8 The disagreement is not about whether satellites can make calls, but once it obtains terrestrial spectrum, it changes from an upstream supplier to a competitor. What carriers fear is not satellite coverage, but that phones automatically switch to the network in the sky when there is no signal — whoever controls that switch controls roaming and settlement pricing power. Direction to watch — approval is the first hurdle; the second is whether it will build its own terrestrial network.$STRK quantum mechanics, I quantum damn it, so many tech companies can't figure it out, even Google hasn't mastered it, you pump the price but are afraid no one will catch the bag, huh? Now you even drag quantum into it. Last time you pumped and bought privacy coins, this time it's quantum again, so many big fools are bag holders for you.#OpenAI revenue accounting controversy sparks debate, AI investment returns under scrutiny This OpenAI matter has left the entire AI community a bit confused. The Financial Times uncovered that by the end of September, OpenAI's annualized revenue was about $50 billion, whereas the market previously rumored $70 billion. The $20 billion difference doesn't mean the business is failing; it's just a different accounting method with cloud providers. But the market ignored that explanation, and once the news broke, Nvidia and Broadcom stocks dropped first as a sign of respect. Coupled with oil prices and US Treasury yields still high, tech stock sentiment softened immediately. More importantly, there's more to the story. Broadcom is reportedly negotiating a financing deal exceeding $50 billion specifically to support OpenAI in purchasing two jointly developed custom AI chips. OpenAI itself plans to raise at least $30 billion, targeting a valuation of $1.4 trillion. Think about it: the money hasn't been earned back yet, but they're already borrowing heavily to buy chips. Can the market not speculate? Here's my take. This kind of news is just a short-term disturbance. Whether giants are burning cash or revenue accounting conflicts arise, it doesn't affect the overall industry's forward momentum. But don't chase those pure concept AI tokens at this time; when the tide goes out, you'll see who's swimming naked. Wait for the CPI. $BTC $ETH Two addresses belonging to the same person, together holding long positions worth fifty million USD. diamondbull.eth opened a 25x long position of 11,500 ETH during the rebound, valued at 28.72 million, ranking directly among the top seven ETH longs on Hyperliquid, currently at an unrealized loss of 109,000. the samurai.eth who funded it still holds long positions of 200 BTC plus 2,000 ETH, valued at 21.58 million, with an unrealized profit of 753,000. Can you see it—old positions are profiting, new positions are taking hits. Bitcoin longs are still at an unrealized loss. This shows the person has been adding positions along the downtrend, buying more as prices fall, increasing the average cost. That 25x position was the most impulsive, getting trapped right after opening. I calculated that with 25x leverage, a 4% reverse move in ETH hits the liquidation line. Currently, the loss is just over 100,000, which looks fine, but actually leaves little room for error. I wouldn’t dare follow such a position. The difference between bottom fishing and courting death sometimes is just a leverage multiple. $BTC $ETH *The above is personal analysis only and does not constitute investment advice*😮 The US semiconductor stocks were cut down all night, yet BTC climbed back from 80,400. I missed that trade yesterday; I was asleep when that sharp drop happened. When I woke up, there was only a 2.8% rebound left. The harshest move was on Hyperliquid: a $19.98 million ETH order was directly swept away. In 24 hours, the whole network liquidated $964 million, involving 163,287 people, with long positions accounting for $770 million. But in the last 12 hours, it reversed: shorts liquidated $81.25 million, longs only $39.55 million. First cutting longs, then shorts, neither side was spared. The other side is the same: Nasdaq down 1.25%, ARM down 6.48%, Intel down 5.34%, Broadcom down 4.35%. The money hasn't fled; it just switched tracks. The energy sector rose 2.92%, WTI up 3.64%. BTC is now at 82,634, up 0.56% in 24 hours. But ETFs have seen outflows for two consecutive days, $244 million yesterday. The position climbed back after the sharp drop, which is the easiest to misjudge as a reversal. My view: treat it as a repair first, don't rush to chase. Just my personal review, not investment advice. What do you think? Is this a golden pit or is the waterfall not over yet? $BTC $ETH #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency$ZEC, the privacy leader, is bouncing today around $1210. It dropped 16% yesterday but recovered 7% to 8% today. However, it is still down 11% over the past seven days, with a market cap of 20.5 billion ranking 10th. It has risen 139% over 90 days. This wave is a profit-taking after a sharp rise, not a fundamental collapse. The 24-hour trading volume is huge: Binance alone has $340 million, the entire network turnover is $8.8 billion, and open interest is $1.98 billion, with volatility frighteningly high. Cypherpunk Technologies' treasury still holds 294,700 ZEC, worth about $360 million, showing institutional accumulation. The privacy narrative combined with the post-quantum resistance label is the core reason ZEC surged from 457 to 1653 and then back to 1200 this round. The overall crypto market was hot in Q3, and privacy coins were seen as a hedge against surveillance. The -16% drop yesterday was driven by a market-wide risk-off, not a unique problem with ZEC. 1113 is the 24-hour low and support level; breaking it could lead to 1062. On the upside, 1241 is the intraday high. RSI is 42, neutral to slightly weak; volatility is too high to hold heavy positions. Privacy coins that rise sharply also fall with privacy-level intensity. $SNDK this short at 1646.4, currently 1622.4, 75x leverage with a floating profit of 124%. $ZEC On the 4-hour chart, after peaking at 1733.4, it dropped continuously with bearish candles, bottoming at 1586.3 with a weak rebound. The current price 1622.4 is pressured by a dense moving average zone (MA5:1633.2, MA10:1645.4, MA20:1659.5), showing a volume-contracted recovery under a bearish alignment. Funding rate is 0.00300% slightly bullish, order book shows thick short orders, rebound lacks strength. $BTC With 75x extreme leverage, the 124% floating profit is very fragile; a 1.5% spike can halve the position. Strategy: lock in profits with a large position and take them off the table, keep a base position to watch if the previous low at 1586.3 breaks; if it recovers above 1645.4 (MA10) or breaks 1680 with volume, exit fully. Avoid holding stubbornly. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Brothers Still holding this wave of short positions, the buying power is weak, the rise is purely a correction, it's just that the selling pressure hasn't kicked in yet. Still expecting a big pullback, any explanation for the 78000 big BTC? Without ETF support, the selling pressure can't be held. Also made a LAB trade today, every time the market is weak this coin comes out to absorb some funds. Here I also opened a small long position, stop loss is at liquidation price. I think it can be held, LAB's rise still has some rationale. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC $ETH $LAB $CORE got stuck with a 300% loss Not sure how I thought 0.022 would be the bottom at the time I was probably trying to bet on a rebound back then And then I just kept getting stuck until now But CORE still has quite a bit of heat on foreign platforms Every official tweet gets about 100,000 views Looking at altcoin projects, that's already very impressive Not sure why the whale hasn't pumped the price yet There's really no need to stop loss now Can only wait for the whale to finish shaking out the market If it drops below $0.018 I'll just keep adding to my position Right now it feels like a sudden big pump could happen anytime #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 A storm is coming. Today's rebound failed! It couldn't break through 2520, and 2500 was completely lost. If $ETH can't hold 2500, it means the trend hasn't reversed at all; it's just a bull trap. If you don't dare to short now, when will you? Look at the data: retail bulls account for 64.27%, shorts only 35.73%. With this ratio, do you expect the market manipulators to pump the price to help these 64% get out of their positions? Then why did they smash it down over a hundred points before? To carry the retail investors? Don't be naive. The worst time I ever had in business was when I saw everyone rushing in one direction, so I followed, and in the end, I was left with nothing. Since then, I understood one truth: the more people there are in one place, the less chance you have to pick up bargains. ETH has been smashed down from 2699, with moving averages pressing overhead, and each rebound weaker than the last. Today's failed rebound is giving shorts an opportunity. My short position at 2707 is already up 81%, with enough profit buffer, so no matter how it spikes, I'm not worried. Don't bottom-fish. At this position, shorting is the way to go. Going against the majority is how you survive. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Actually, it currently looks very much like an M-top pattern. We say to short when it breaks below the neckline (that horizontal line) and then retests it (rises back to the neckline), with a stop loss at the top 87.3k and take profit at 78k. But now there is a bit of a change; the neckline resistance is not as quick. If shorting now, a stop loss at 83.5k and take profit at 78k is pretty good. Just analyzing the market, not investment advice. $BTC 😃这几天行情确实比较磨人。 BTC昨天一度掉到8.1万美元以下， 今天重新回到： 8.2万美元附近。 但是ETF资金目前仍然偏弱。 10月8日，美国现货BTC ETF净流出大约： 2.44亿美元。 前一天更是流出了接近4.85亿美元。 所以至少短期看， 市场还没有出现非常明确的增量资金回归。 但今天我更关注的反而不是价格。 因为另外两件事情正在发生。 1️⃣ 泰国正式允许本土BTC、ETH ETF 泰国SEC最新已经把Crypto ETF规则正式定下来。 从： 10月16日 开始生效。 第一阶段允许： Bitcoin Ethereum 相关ETF。 而且以后直接在泰国证券交易所交易。 我觉得这里最重要的不是： “泰国会带来多少钱？” 而是： 又多了一个传统资本市场正式给BTC、ETH开放投资入口。 以前普通投资者要买Crypto， 可能要： 注册交易所、 学钱包、 研究链上转账。 以后越来越多国家可能直接变成： 打开证券账户 → 买ETF。 进入门槛完全不是一个级别。 2️⃣ BNY开始在欧盟扩大数字资产托管 纽约梅隆银行BNY也宣布， 在欧盟MiCA框架下继续扩大数字资产托管服务。 B
Orbit Topic Sitemap