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I think institutions have still been selling off these past two days; don't consider the weekend rebound as a return flow. U.S. stock Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow totaled about $729 million from 10/7 to 10/8 (Farside); spot price around $82,593 (Beijing 21:52, Coinbase).Currently, I still lean towards the Short $BTC and $ETH scenario, only changing when the price hits the protection zone. However, it is too early to conclude that the bull market has ended. US bond yields, crude oil, USD, and ETF flows are all simultaneously exerting pressure. If the expectation of a Fed rate hike in December remains high, the risks will be greater. BTC support is at 82,000, resistance at 86,000 USD. $ETH: support at 2,500, resistance at 2,450 USD🔥 Exchanges are starting to compete in payments and AI! Can they still make money just from trading fees in the future?
Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon: crypto exchanges seem to be quietly shifting direction.🤔
Before, everyone competed on who had the lowest fees, the most coins, and the best trading depth.
Now? Leading platforms like OKX, Binance, and Gate are already focusing on payments, AI, and more financial services.
In short, exchanges might not want to be just places to buy and sell cryptocurrencies anymore.
💰 Why expand into payments?
Trading fees depend on market activity; bull markets are lively, but trading volume may drop in bear markets.
Payments are different. If stablecoins truly enter daily life, exchanges have the chance to expand into new business scenarios.
🤖 Why start competing in AI again?
AI agents might help users analyze markets, manage assets, and even assist in executing trading strategies in the future.
But I think having many AI features doesn’t necessarily mean they’re useful; what really matters is accuracy, security, and real effectiveness.
💡 My view:
Future competition among exchanges might not just be about trading volume, but about who can retain users and provide more real value.
Small exchanges might still have opportunities; differentiated services are equally important.
The next round of exchange competition might not just be about traffic, but about the ecosystem.
What do you think is the most worthwhile direction for exchanges to develop in the future: AI, payments, or traditional trading?
$OKB #跟着OKX打卡2049 25 people issued 770,000 tokens and withdrew $128 million
Look at this $PUMP top deployers leaderboard.
The top 25 issued a total of 770,000 tokens, withdrawing $128 million from the market.
But only 6 have a market cap exceeding $20 million.
What does this mean?
First, the vast majority of tokens are destined to be cannon fodder. Out of 770,000 tokens, only 6 succeeded. The rest all went to zero.
Second, the money was earned by a few people. $128 million was split among 25 people. On average, over $5 million each.
Third, this is not creation, it’s an assembly line. Look at the number of deployments on the leaderboard: 63,000, 27,000, 23,000. This is not issuing tokens, it’s mass production.
Turning others’ FOMO into their own exit route, the ones who always pay the price in the end are the most FOMO-driven people.Rallying then falling back, this is the most classic harvesting script in the crypto world.
MET dropped directly from 0.546 to 0.428 today, a decline of over 20%, and everyone who chased the high got buried at the peak.
Take a look at the daily chart, how long is the upper shadow left at the highest point of 0.546? That is ironclad evidence of the main force unloading.
On the news front, a huge amount of MET tokens will be unlocked on October 23. What does unlocking mean?
It means a large number of new chips are about to flood the market, and selling pressure is imminent.
Moreover, technical indicators have already issued overbought signals; this rally itself is an emotion-driven false fire, not real demand.
Look at the broader market, ETH keeps falling, ETFs have continuous net outflows, and macro interest rate pressure is looming.
Altcoins are the first to be sacrificed in a tightening liquidity environment. High Beta targets like MET fall faster than anyone else.
My short position at 0.4636 is still held, with a return of +23.42%. This is not luck, it is logic realized.
The strong resistance above is at 0.50; as long as it is not broken, the bearish trend will not change.
The first downside target is 0.35, and if broken, then 0.30.
For those wanting to enter, wait for a rebound to the 0.44-0.45 range before shorting, with a stop loss above 0.48. Don't chase shorts; chasing shorts easily gets stopped out.
"Profit is the reward for risk." — Soros. Now the risk is clear, and the profit is right in front of you.
$BTC $ETH $MET
#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 $RAY This wave was purely due to good market sentiment, casually throwing some gold coins, and they just happened to hit my head.
The last glance at the market before sleep, RAY was still hovering at 2.0763, bottoming but not breaking the level, it looked like it was holding its breath. I had indicated a bullish stance at the time, the support below was stable, if you dared to hold, there was a chance.
Woke up to find it had already risen to 2.4104, with a +321.34% profit hanging there, going long, this gain feels good and lets me sleep soundly.
Don’t get arrogant with profits, don’t despair with pullbacks.
The premise of compounding is staying alive.
In terms of operation, first take profits on 70%, push the stop loss for the remaining 30% to the cost price, don’t be greedy for the last bit, the profits taken are truly yours.
For friends who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me, chasing highs now is just carrying others’ gains, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify you immediately.
$BNB $LAB Don't immediately shout "about to be delisted" when you see a tag; first, clearly understand the rules.
According to PANews, Binance has added Biconomy (BICO) and Civic (CVC) to the watchlist tag. The announcement indicates that these two tokens are marked by the exchange as high volatility, high-risk assets and are subject to stricter ongoing scrutiny. The watchlist tag itself does not mean immediate delisting, but it directly increases psychological pressure on holders and weakens the willingness of new funds to take over; if liquidity, development activity, or project communication continue to fall short, the risk of delisting will be amplified.
Two observable scenarios: one is that selling pressure after the announcement is quickly absorbed; the other is that rebounds lack volume and the sentiment to reduce positions at highs is more likely to dominate. Do you prefer to first observe the strength of absorption, or wait for signals from liquidity and project communication?$HYPE shorting, this trend looks like it was pre-written: grinding near 89, fake rebound, sweeping longs, breaking down and accelerating towards 85. The pattern is not new; every time someone believes "this time the ecosystem is different." What I was focusing on then was the distribution of selling pressure above—layers of sell orders suppressing, the buying side can't push through at all. The key is here, it's not a fundamental problem, it's capital behavior retreating. The market space release is very obvious, after the volatility space opens, the trend extends along the shorts. Those with 50x positions should secure profits first, move stop losses accordingly, if the rebound fails, continue to watch; if it stands back in the opening zone, it means the structure might flip, then exit. If you have no position, don't chase the sharp drop, the wick will trap people. Wait for the next confirmation signal before acting. $BTC $ETH $BTC $ETH $SOL have both been trapped in two long positions consecutively, and it feels quite unpleasant. The market did not rise in the direction I expected; after entering, it declined all the way, and the positions gradually fell into loss, making my mindset anxious.
$SOL is a 50x full-position long, opened at an average price of 112U, current price 109U, with an unrealized loss of 358 USDT, a loss of 162%.
$DOGE is a 10x full-position long, opened at an average price of 0.09U, current price 0.08U, with an unrealized loss of 575 USDT, a loss of 83%. Both maintain a margin rate close to 700%, so there is no immediate risk of liquidation.
Although there is no immediate liquidation risk, the account funds are occupied, and the balance continues to decline. The bullish logic I relied on before entering has failed, but I did not cut losses in time and chose to endure the losses.
The market will not reverse just because of my expectations. This time it made me realize that no matter how many opportunities there are, I cannot diversify positions simultaneously; opening multiple varieties at once easily leads to neglecting some.
I will simplify my positions going forward, focusing only on a few markets I understand, planning the risk of each position in advance, and no longer holding multiple trapped positions at the same time.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $FIL grinding the market to madness, 1.10 is that door
The FIL chart is like a tug-of-war, bulls and bears neither yielding, pulling back and forth without giving a clear break. It previously surged to 1.21, bulls just about to call a rally, then bears hit hard, dragging it down with a steady decline. It dropped to 0.985 at dawn, several attempts to break lower failed, buyers stepped in below, no collapse.
Then a V-shaped reversal, lifting the low, retaking the short-term moving average, now grinding back and forth near the moving average, shaking out weak hands, a cure for itchy fingers. In this market, chasing highs and selling lows is just paying tuition to the market.
Key is to watch 1.10, this is the short-term watershed. If it holds above, there’s a chance for a volume breakout, target 1.15-1.20. If it can’t hold, it will keep grinding, don’t rush to break through.
Strategy: Don’t rush to chase near 1.10, wait for it to hold before entering, set stop loss below 1.05. If it can’t break up, pull back, don’t waste energy fighting it. If you want to follow, wait for signals, don’t jump the gun. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC 83,017, $ETH 2,503. After a sharp drop, a V-shaped rebound occurred; BTC reclaimed 83,000, but the strength of the rebound remains to be verified.
Capital flow is diverging. BTC ETFs saw net outflows of 729 million over two consecutive days, with Fidelity's FBTC outflowing 408 million, while BlackRock's IBIT saw a counter-trend inflow of 333 million. ETH ETFs have been bleeding for 8 consecutive days, with an outflow of 72.54 million on October 8, of which BlackRock accounted for 71.12 million; since the end of September, cumulative outflows reached 641 million.
Liquidations continue. In the past 24 hours, total network liquidations reached 1.191 billion, with longs accounting for 1.056 billion. ETH long liquidations lead at 294 million, followed by BTC longs at 273 million. Funding rates have turned negative, indicating shorts are starting to pay.
Key levels:
BTC resistance is between 83,300-84,000, a break-even selling pressure zone; support lies between 81,700-81,000.
ETH resistance is dense between 2,530-2,560 for shorts; breaking 2,599 triggers 1.376 billion short liquidations; support at 2,405 is a spike low, with further downside targeting 2,355.
Strategy: Light long positions on BTC pullbacks to 82,000-82,200, with a stop at 81,500 and targets at 83,300-84,000. Light long positions on ETH pullbacks to 2,440-2,460, with a stop at 2,405 and targets at 2,530-2,560. Short positions can be taken if the rebound is blocked.
In short: ETF break-even selling pressure is resistance above; leveraged longs are still being cleared. Watch for the authenticity of the rebound; do not chase highs, wait for confirmation before acting. $UNI has dropped 20% this week, but fortunately today's strong V-shaped rebound pulled it back, otherwise it would have fallen another 5%.
I remembered a friend asked me a couple of days ago: Can $UNI still be held? My answer is simple: not for the short term, but yes for the long term.
1. Why not hold in the short term?
Because under heavy macro pressure, the mainstream contract funding rates in the market have generally turned negative, indicating that the bears are starting to dominate. For a coin like UNI, which had high speculative heat earlier, the short-term trend is basically down, don't expect a rebound.
Moreover, UNI has fallen from its peak of 10u to the current 7u, breaking below all short-term moving averages, showing a comprehensive technical weakness. Especially now, before the CME futures launch, short-term volatility will be greater—in plain terms, the drop will be more severe.
2. But it can be held for the long term!
Because the bubble being squeezed out now is the one that was speculated up last month, which does not affect its firm position as the leading DEX aggregator.
When buying coins, always buy the leader. Those who think the leader is too expensive and buy the second-tier coin will either earn less or suffer heavy losses.
For UNI, its Unichain TVL and the actual usage rate of v4 hooks are steadily climbing, the protocol's revenue growth month-over-month is stable, and the buyback and burn mechanism is still in place.
So I estimate that within 3 years it will still firmly hold the leading position among DEX aggregators. In 3 years, I believe UNI can wait for a new all-time high in a bull market.
(PS: I sold all my $UNI last month and will wait for a good opportunity to buy back in)$BTC BTC this pattern still has reference value. Although it temporarily broke down in the short term, if it can stop falling and recover after the consolidation, the pattern can stabilize. The current wick has already pulled back near the boundary line.
Yesterday, I went long because it had been falling for a long time, with multiple wicks hitting the support level. I thought it could at least rebound to around 82,000, but it directly dropped to near 80,000. This retracement exceeded expectations. At that time, this was still the neckline of a daily double top, so it was a small position gamble with grit, but in the end, it was still stopped out. Fortunately, it was only the initial position.
As long as the 80,000 level holds, the major upward structure remains intact. This current low point is just the upper edge of the previous consolidation range; if it holds, the upward trend can continue. But be aware, the daily chart is still facing a bearish divergence, so it will most likely oscillate and grind back and forth next.I said it can't rise, and it just can't rise.
You keep saying it can rise, keep advising me not to short, but please stop advising me.
Don't be terrified by its slight rebound now; a rebound is not a reversal, the downtrend hasn't changed at all.
Look at the market, $ZEC dropped from 1343 to 1112, down over 200 dollars.
It bounced back to 1230 during the day but couldn't rise further, now it’s starting to fall again. Frankly, this is just a technical correction after overselling.
The 1247 level above is the 24-hour high, and 1250 to 1300 is a dense resistance zone; approaching here is basically a short entry point.
The daily moving averages are still in a bearish alignment, MACD is running below the zero line, the bearish structure is completely intact.
I'm holding my short position at 1218 steadily, with a stop loss above 1260, targeting the previous low at 1112 first.
Once it breaks below, the next stop is directly at the 1000 round number.
Shorting at this position has a clear stop loss and a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Don't be fooled into exiting by a few small bullish candles, hold your short position firmly, see you at the foot of the mountain.
$BTC
$ETH
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 2000 $BTC, $166 million, directly transferred into Bitfinex.
The first reaction is a prelude to dumping? Don't rush.
This address originally had 3589 coins, after the transfer it still has 1589 left. It's not a full sell-off, just moving more than half.
From a market maker's perspective, this operation looks more like portfolio adjustment or liquidity preparation, not a panic escape.
If it were really selling off, usually it wouldn't move only half, nor be so straightforward.
But one thing must be admitted: once coins enter an exchange, it's like bullets are loaded. Whether they follow up or not is the key.
In the current market, the biggest fear is scaring yourself just by seeing transfers.
To be honest, looking at this single transaction alone is not enough to determine the direction. What really needs attention is the next few days, whether these 1589 coins will also move.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 $BTC $NEAR could be the next major whale-driven rally, following a pattern similar to $ZEC’s rise from $451 to $1,700. Both showed strength during market weakness, followed by high-level consolidation and a second rally.
With $NEAR maintaining over $200M in daily trading volume and strong liquidity, it appears capable of attracting significant capital.
My target? $NEAR entering the top 10 by market cap within the next two months. NFA.
#SepFOMCMinutesHikeWatch #BTCETFBiggestOutflow Going to sleep, not watching anymore.
BTC and ETH, ZEC
The rebound is a bit exhausted,
Long positions, feeling that the difficulty of breaking even has increased again.
At this position, stop loss doesn't really make sense anymore,
Just hold on! Will check again tomorrow morning…Why can the price still drop through even when there are huge buy orders hanging on the order book?
When I first started trading small-cap coins, I saw millions of U in buy orders stacked below and felt very reassured: with such a thick buy wall, the main players must be supporting the price, and there would be buyers to catch the fall.
Later I realized that what the order book shows is intention, not a commitment.
I once went long on a low-circulation contract coin, where buy orders from level one to level ten were terrifyingly thick, even larger than the usual trading volume.
I thought the bottom was locked in, but as soon as the price approached, the buy orders were withdrawn layer by layer; when the real dump happened, the so-called buy wall disappeared within seconds.
It turns out those orders could be dynamic quotes from market makers or just used to create an illusion of support to attract retail investors to enter early.
Even if buy orders are actually filled, it doesn’t mean someone is bullish long-term; market makers might hold short positions simultaneously and take the spot just to maintain inventory neutrality; big players might also use part of their funds to prop up the order book, making it easier for chips at higher levels to exit gradually.
To judge whether the support is real, you can’t just look at the number of orders; you need to see if there is continuous trading after the price touches, whether the cancellation rate is high, if aggressive sell orders can be repeatedly absorbed, and whether the price can quickly recover after trades.
Remember: the money hanging on the order book can be withdrawn at any time; real support must be tested by selling pressure; buy walls only create a sense of security, but the price reaction after trades is the real proof.A loss of $570,000 in 5 days, this drop has trapped quite a few traders 🥹
Address 58bro.eth deposited 3,000 $ETH to #OKX 1 hour ago (approximately $7.53 million). The withdrawal price of these tokens 5 days ago was $2702.35, and the deposit price this time was $2512.13, quickly shrinking by 7%.
Wallet address 0xc24ad068E42B8293db1aC6d920aEd665aB3FE8d2Is anyone still mocking me in the comments?
Ethereum has already rebounded to 2480, and you're still holding a 2490 short position without exiting—aren't you just waiting to get hit?
I really find it laughable, why would you run?
This is clearly a perfect entry opportunity for bears given by the dog whales!
Take a look at the daily chart: MA5 (2577), MA10 (2633), and MA20 (2660) are like mountains pressing down like a waterfall, and the price rebound can't even touch the edge of MA5. This is clearly a weak rebound after a big drop.
The most heartening bearish news today: Ledger user wallets were hacked with losses exceeding 86 million USD!
A security crisis of this magnitude will instantly shatter retail investors' fragile confidence and trigger a chain stampede.
If basic security can't be guaranteed, what can support bullish expectations?
Currently, the long-short ratio is 51% to 49%, retail investors are still frantically bottom-fishing, while the main players are taking advantage of the rebound to sell off.
Don't try to guess the bottom, and don't use your principal to fight the trend. The target is first 2300, and if it breaks, then 2200.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Today I saw two bloggers I usually follow, both discussing which coins to buy at the bottom if this drop reaches its target.
Reading their answers reminded me of a question many people have recently asked me: Why do you buy so much $BTC?
Charts 3 and 4 show my holdings on two platforms, both mainly BTC. So I discovered a very interesting phenomenon: many people believe in BTC's bull run, but very few actually buy BTC with real money.
If I ask you which coin has the strongest faith in web3, you would probably say BTC; if I ask which coin is most favored by Wall Street institutions, you would also say BTC; if I ask which coin has had the highest historical gains, you should also know it's BTC… #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持
But if I tell you to buy BTC, you always have many reasons: it's too slow, it's too expensive, it has risen too much… Retail investors always prefer chasing the myth of getting rich quickly by doubling or even multiplying tenfold in a month.
But actually, investing and wealth management are about preserving and growing assets, not getting rich overnight. Most retail investors lose money because they don't like getting rich slowly; instead, they hope to find a big gold nugget in the trash and get rich overnight.
So if this round continues to fall, I will still keep accumulating BTC, $OKB, $ETH, and SOL… Let's encourage each other.#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位
Long-term government bond yields continue to rise, and what the market truly needs to reprice is the future cost of capital.
An increase in long-term yields usually reflects inflation expectations, fiscal financing pressure, term premiums, or changes in investor demand for long-term bonds, and does not necessarily mean the central bank will raise interest rates immediately.
However, for risk assets, the impact path is very direct:
First, as the risk-free rate rises, the returns investors require for holding high-volatility assets also increase.
Second, assets with a higher proportion of future cash flows are more susceptible to valuation impacts from rising discount rates.
Third, when stocks, bonds, and crypto assets compete for capital simultaneously, rising financing costs force the market to place greater emphasis on profitability and balance sheets.
BTC lacks traditional corporate cash flows and cannot simply apply stock valuation models, but it is still influenced by global liquidity and risk appetite.
The rise in long-term yields is not just a matter for the bond market but represents a change in the pricing benchmark for the entire financial market. #全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $GRAM
GRAM has pulled back over 4%, how to separate trading heat from holding value?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 1.341—1.44 USDT, change -4.24%, trading volume about 5.66 million USDT.
The quote is in the lower half range, current active trading does not guarantee buyers hold more space. Trading demand may come from short-term turnover and cannot directly infer sustained user demand or improvement in holding rights.
If the heat continues but the price keeps breaking lows, first reduce the demand explanation; if there is verifiable evidence of rights and the low point rises, then increase the judgment of support.$ETH held for 15 days, all three short ETH positions closed, total profit of 20,992 dollars!
The three ETH short positions opened around noon on September 23rd were all closed at 0:11 AM today — one made 6,988 U, another 6,949 U, and the last 7,054 U, totaling 20,992 USDT, all with 50x full margin shorts, taking profits near 2,430.
After opening these three positions, ETH started to fluctuate, dropping to just above 2,300 at its lowest. The unrealized profit peaked at over 30,000 dollars, but then it rebounded, shrinking the profit significantly. However, I held on without moving because the stop loss wasn’t hit and the trend hadn’t broken. I worked and slept as usual, occasionally glancing at the price; seeing it still dropping, I kept holding. At midnight today, seeing the price near 2,430, I thought it was about right and closed all three positions together, pocketing 20,000 dollars.
Honestly, this money was earned very solidly. Holding 50x leverage for 15 days tested my mindset completely, but because I didn’t watch the market closely, I managed to hold on.
Some insights:
· Big money is made by "sitting" not by "doing".
· Opening and closing positions in batches, steady and sure, is more reliable than going all in.
· This profit comes not from skill, but from patience and faith.
Next steps:
· Withdraw 80% of the profit to secure gains.
· Continue with 50x leverage, placing short orders at high points.
· Maintain a rhythm of "less watching the market, more sleeping."
Making 20,000 dollars in 15 days, worth it.
#ETH #shortpositionsBTC was still chatting about 90,000 a couple of days ago, and today it directly dropped to 81,000, the hits are loud and clear. But I think this is not a fundamental collapse, it's leverage being forcibly squeezed out. Over 1 billion USD liquidated in 24 hours, mostly longs. High leverage betting on a rise, once a key level breaks, chain liquidations trigger a stampede to exit. It's not that BTC suddenly lost value, it's that those borrowing to gamble got forcibly liquidated.
This is different from the 19 billion in October last year. Back then, funding rates were over 20% annualized, scorching hot; this time it's only about 7%, and liquidation intensity is just about one-ninth of last September.
So why the drop? Money got expensive. The Fed's September minutes leaned hawkish, with a 85% chance of a rate hike in December; 10-year US Treasury yields at 5.3%, oil prices above 104 pushing inflation. Risk assets are definitely taking a hit.
I see around 80,000 as the psychological line for bulls. If it holds, it's a shakeout; if not, liquidation orders around 75,000 might queue up. JPMorgan says about 50 billion USD more will come in this year, big money hasn't withdrawn, but short-term won't rush to buy.
In my opinion, first unload the leverage, hold spot and don't panic. Those liquidated were forcibly closed, not actively bearish. Selling only means margin was insufficient, not that BTC is failing. After this wave of forced liquidations passes, the market will be much cleaner.
$ETH $SOL $BTC Market BTC is about 82,900, but the liquidation of this 40x short position is set around 84,086.
Lookonchain monitoring: An address first sold about 262.78 ETH for approximately 643,000 USDC, then entered Hyperliquid and opened a 40x short position of about 305.51 BTC, nominally around 25.4 million USD, with a liquidation price around 84,086.03. Positions can change, and the liquidation price is not fixed. At the time of writing, BTC on OKX is about 82,918, ETH about 2,490.
Honestly, using the money from selling ETH to open such a large short feels more like betting on a short-term pullback rather than slowly trading the waves; the current price buffer to liquidation is only about a thousand dollars.
Are you betting it gets liquidated first, or that it can hold until this rebound fades?
I’ll share any new developments as soon as possible.
$BTC $ETH $BCH perpetual 50x short position, opened at 296.7, currently at 273.8, floating profit +385.91%.
This BCH trade has a floating profit of over 3.8 times, but 50x leverage is truly like walking on thin ice. The sharp drop is extreme, but a single pulse rebound can instantly wipe out most of the floating profit. Discipline first: move the stop loss up to 280 to secure the profit floor; take a large portion off the table, and watch the remaining base position at 270—if it breaks, hold; if not, exit. When profits are substantial, don’t let greed ruin the results. $BTC $ETH
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 83,000 is a "recovery rebound after the 80,544 dip," not a trend reversal. 84,500 is the real litmus test.
1. How this rebound came about
Last night BTC once dropped to $80,544 (a two-and-a-half-week low), then rebounded above 83,000, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.8%. There are two direct drivers:
Both US Treasury yields and oil prices fell. The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped from a high of 5.36% to about 5.23%, and Brent crude oil fell from above $105. Trump posted that due to "productive" negotiations, the US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections, causing oil prices to fall, the dollar to weaken, and risk appetite to marginally improve.
But the "fuel" for this rebound is leverage clearing, not new buying. This week's decline is mainly due to leveraged funds leaving the market. In the past 24 hours, BTC liquidations were about $167 million, with longs accounting for 94%. This means this rebound is more about short covering and oversold repair, rather than a substantial return of spot demand.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #跟着OKX打卡2049 Two pieces of news stacked together, the crypto market is indeed under pressure.
First, the Federal Reserve's September minutes are hawkish. All 19 officials unanimously supported a 25 basis point rate hike, bringing rates to 3.75% to 4%. Most believe inflation is still too high and another hike may be needed before the end of the year. Some worry that energy prices continue to push inflation up, while others feel current rates are still not tight enough. The market's pricing for an October hike has dropped to about 20%, but the expectation of "another hike within the year" itself is weighing on risk assets.
Second, oil prices jumped 4%. Attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz continue, with transit volume down 27%, only 7 commodity ships passed on October 6, the lowest since July 23. Brent closed at 104.28. When energy supply tightens, inflation expectations remain high, which in turn strengthens the Fed's confidence to raise rates.
One pressure comes from the interest rate side, the other from the inflation side, a double whammy.
For BTC, the short-term pressure is very direct. Interest-free assets suffer in the face of high rates, and capital prefers to earn bond yields. BTC fell near 82,000, with resistance between 83,500 and 84,500 above, and key support at 80,000 below.
But from another perspective, the tighter energy gets, the harder it is for inflation to fall, increasing the pressure for debt monetization. The US has 40 trillion in debt, with interest compounding more and more, eventually leading either to inflation dilution or implicit easing. Whichever path, the US dollar's credit is being consumed. BTC, as a non-sovereign hard asset, benefits from this. Short-term pain, long-term gain. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC #OpenAI revenue measurement controversy, AI investment returns under scrutiny $OPENAI
The same business, two measurements differ by 20 billion USD.
▪️ Financial Times: Annualized revenue run rate close to 50 billion USD as of the end of September
▪️ Previously cited market figure was about 70 billion; CNBC later confirmed the former
▪️ Company stance: The difference comes from the accounting method of cloud partner sales revenue; Anthropic includes resale, the two companies have different algorithms
▪️ On the day of the news, the Nasdaq fell more than 1%, Oracle dropped over 5%, AI concept stocks collectively retreated
▪️ Meanwhile, Broadcom reportedly discussing over 50 billion financing to support custom chip procurement
▪️ OpenAI reportedly plans to raise at least 30 billion, with a pre-investment valuation of about 1.4 trillion
The disagreement is not whether the revenue is 50 billion or 70 billion, but that the same figure was counted twice by two accounting methods — one is self-operated, the other is revenue sharing.
Annualized revenue is calculated by multiplying the most recent month by twelve, not equal to full-year recognized revenue. For the same batch of cloud resold revenue, whether it is counted on the channel side or on their own books, the difference is this 20 billion.
The direction is cautious — the measurement does not kill valuation, the question is where the 50 billion chip money comes from that would kill it. A couple of days ago, DogeOS launched its public testnet, and I took a look at what’s running on it.
Barkswap is working on a liquidity engine, Superposition Finance is developing a lending protocol, Derps is building a perpetual contract exchange, Split Markets is creating options without liquidation, USDoge is making a stablecoin, and Snag is working on a prediction market aggregator. There are also several teams working on launch platforms and games, called Anoncoin, Starbase, Doge Escape, PlaysOut, DogeFundMe.
I counted three times. More than a dozen projects. All running on Dogecoin. All fees paid in DOGE.
Jordan Jefferson, CEO of DogeOS, said something that stuck with me: these teams are filling in the gaps DOGE has always lacked—markets, financial tools, games, and more places to spend DOGE. He called this “the beginning of turning an asset into an ecosystem.”
Timothy Stebbing from the Dogecoin Foundation also tweeted that new projects on the Doge/EVM chain are coming in “like an avalanche.”
Before, Dogecoin was just for transfers—you send to me, I send to you. Now people are building on it. And it’s not just one or two people building, it’s a whole group. The foundation is just laid, the building isn’t up yet. But the foundation is there.
$DOGE, I’m holding on to it first, waiting for the building to be finished. Just now at 21:30, the US stock market opened, with the three major indices collectively opening higher: Dow opened at 51258.95 (+0.14%), S&P 500 opened at 7786.36 (+0.32%), and the Nasdaq led the gains, rising about +0.57%, with the tech sector showing relatively strong performance at the start.
But friends, don’t judge the situation as reversed just based on this high opening; the key is to observe whether the market can maintain the gains afterward and be wary of a pullback after the surge.
Looking back at the previous rapid correction, it was essentially a concentrated liquidation of long leverage positions within the market. The macro-level pressure has not completely dissipated, but the external risk sentiment has somewhat improved, which can provide some buffer for Bitcoin. $BTC $ETH Today's trend: The bulls retreated to the edge of the cliff in the early morning, with BTC hitting a low of 80,314, the 80,000 mark looming close. But this barrier stubbornly held — during the day, there was an oversold rebound, recovering 82,000; by evening, oil prices turned down (US oil back to 91, Brent oil 102.8), gold and silver both rose, BTC steadily recovered, standing above 83,000 at night, with an intraday high of 83,234; ETH recovered 2,500, trading around 2,505. ✅ Morning script review The bullish script given this morning: "Hold 80,000 with volume, reclaim 82,000 to seek a rebound, and only stabilizing above 83,000 counts as a stop to the decline" — fully fulfilled; also clearly stated "Chasing shorts before 80,000 = chasing the bottom, beware of a deep V on Friday." The correction line "Holding above 83,000 with volume triggers short profit-taking" was triggered in the evening, and I followed discipline to take profits and turned neutral to observe. The expected rebound was caught, and the correction line was acknowledged. 📊 Data summary In the past 24 hours, over 170,000 people were liquidated across the market, nearly 1.1 billion USD, almost all from the early morning bulls; ETH's forced liquidation rate is 6 times that of BTC. The fear and greed index is 59 (greedy). The key to easing bearish sentiment is the fall in oil prices and the retreat of geopolitical premiums. 🌙 Weekend levels BTC: resistance at 83,000, 84,000, 85,000; support at 82,000, 81,000, 80,000. ETH: resistance at 2,535, 2,560,大饼80400反弹至82650，牛市回来了？🤔🤔🤔
大饼从80400反弹到82650，不少人高呼牛市回归。法老直言：这不过是ICU病人睁了下眼，不等于痊愈出院。这波上涨只是超跌修复+宏观短暂喘息，千万别盲目判定行情反转。
🤓🤓🤓
这波反弹由四大因素共同推动：一是80400位置到达技术支撑，短周期指标进入超卖，空头获利离场，抄底资金试探入场；二是美债收益率回落，缓解风险资产估值压力；三是中东局势缓和，市场预期美联储或暂停加息，美元走弱提振风险情绪；四是空头回补助推拉升，但并无大量爆仓数据支撑。
要注意82650刚好抵达第一压力区间，短线均线、布林上轨形成压制，日线大结构并未转强，依旧属于修复反弹。
后续重点盯三个关键价位：站稳82650‑82800，有望挑战83200‑83500；冲高无力则回踩82200，强支撑8150‑81800；一旦再度跌破80400，本轮反弹宣告失效。
总结：真正反转需要站稳83300以上。不要高位追涨，回踩82200企稳可轻仓试多，止损放在81500。
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $XRP LONG 📈 — A rebound is possible if buyers defend $1.398–$1.410 support.
Entry: 1.398–1.410
SL: 1.340
TP1: 1.450
TP2: 1.500
TP3: 1.560
Buyers must reclaim $1.45 to strengthen recovery momentum. If support fails, downside risk increases. Wait for confirmation. DYOR.Institutional buying: BitMine’s ETH accumulation strategy is another story to watch. Reports say the company plans to stop accumulating once its holdings reach 5% of ETH’s supply, potentially limiting one source of buying demand.The guild leader has something to say
Gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $31 billion in Q3, a record, with total holdings at 4,256 tons. But gold prices dropped to $4,066 on October 7, the lowest since August 5. ETFs are buying, but prices are falling.
The reason is not complicated. U.S. Treasury yields are at 5.36%, the dollar is strong, and futures bulls are reducing positions. Middle East tensions have pushed up oil prices, increasing inflation and interest rate expectations, which in turn raise the cost of holding gold. In a high interest rate environment, even safe-haven assets are not safe.
But there is a change today. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields both retreated, and gold lifted from its lows. London gold rebounded from around 4100 to between 4185 and 4195, rising more than a point intraday. The 15-minute chart shows the price at 4189, indicating a short-term rebound.
Gold's rebound is an indirect signal for Bitcoin. Both sides are waiting for a macro shift, but Bitcoin has its own troubles. ETFs had a net outflow of $487 million yesterday, the largest since June 25. Leverage is being cleared, and tax-related selling pressure is present. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields at 5.7% are weighing down, making it difficult for Bitcoin to strengthen independently in the short term.
My short position at 86500 is still open. The logic hasn't changed: positive news has been priced in, resistance above is dense, and funds are withdrawing. Stop loss at 87500, target between 84500 and 85000. The gold rebound does not change the short position rhythm. Bitcoin is more directly suppressed by macro and capital factors. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
Don't chase gold; it's a short-term rebound but the high interest rate environment remains unchanged. Hold your Bitcoin short positions well and set your stop losses properly. #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 It only took 1.88 million USD to push ZK up 15%, I have to say there's some exaggeration in this gain chart
Looking at the charts tonight, L1 and L2 are all bright red, ZKsync surged above $0.013, up about 15% in 24h, ranging from 0.01069 to 0.01344. But checking the trading volume, OKEx's 24h spot volume is just over 1.88 million USDT. Just over a million dollars pushed the 140 million market cap L2 veteran up by 15 points, an absurdly high capital efficiency.
It didn't have any new catalysts today, no new releases, no ecosystem benefits, just money flowing from L1 to L2 and to high-elasticity old narratives like ZK after Bitcoin stabilized. But unlike ATOM's volume-backed catch-up rally this afternoon, ZK is a purer low-volume pump; thin market cap means it's easy to pump and easy to dump, with bullish candles appearing in minutes when it rises, but when it crashes, buy orders below can't hold.
The RSI on the chart has reached 63, price is grinding right against the Bollinger upper band at 0.0134 and resistance at 0.0132, with the super trend at 0.0127 supporting below. The short-term trend isn't broken, but without volume support at this level, chasing it has very low cost-effectiveness.
Next, watch for one signal: can it hold above 0.0132 with volume and then test the 24h high at 0.0134; if volume doesn't follow and it turns down, first watch the Bollinger middle band at 0.0129, then the super trend at 0.0127. For thin market cap coins, a rebound is entertaining to watch but be cautious about reaching out. Not investment advice, DYOR
#ZKsync #ZK #Layer2Ledger user mass theft incident: On-chain monitoring shows losses exceeding $86 million.
Comprehensive on-chain security monitoring information indicates that recently, social platforms such as X and Reddit have seen numerous public reports of Ledger user wallets being stolen. On-chain detective Specter completed a full-chain tracking of the addresses involved in the theft and confirmed that these addresses have cumulatively received assets transferred from hundreds of victims across multiple major public chains including $ETH, Tron, and $BTC, with total losses exceeding $86 million.
This large-scale asset theft incident was not due to a direct breach of the hardware wallet device itself. Based on the tracing results of several similar previous incidents, attackers often exploit user data leaked from multiple rounds of data breaches, including names, phone numbers, and order information, to craft highly realistic official customer service notifications and platform upgrade prompts as precise phishing content. This lures victims into entering their mnemonic phrases or authorizing transactions on malicious pages, ultimately causing assets to be instantly transferred away.
Currently, relevant security teams are still continuously tracking the mixing and transfer paths of the involved funds, and no full recovery ratio of the lost assets has been announced yet. Security industry experts advise hardware wallet users to be wary of any "official notifications" requesting mnemonic phrases or private keys. All transaction confirmations must be verified on the hardware device itself, avoiding wallet operations through unfamiliar link redirects.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049 Now focusing on one thing: whether 84,000 can be recovered within a certain time!
BTC rebounded near 80,400 after touching the 4-hour MA200, with a low-level MACD golden cross, indicating a temporary easing of short-term selling pressure.
However, the price clearly slowed down after rising to 83,000. The 83,500-84,500 range simultaneously presses against the previous platform, MA30, and MA120, which is the real boundary between bulls and bears.
In the past two days, BTC spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of about $729 million, but the price did not continue to collapse, indicating there is indeed support near 80,000; however, the continuous outflow of funds also determines that this rebound is unlikely to directly break through 85,000.
I believe that for the rest of October, the price is more likely to fluctuate and rotate between 80,000 and 85,000, first rebounding to 84,000, then pulling back to 81,000-82,000, rather than immediately entering a one-sided trend.
As long as 80,000 holds, after the mid-month adjustment ends, BTC still has a chance to challenge 85,000-87,000, but 87,400 is very likely the monthly high point, and the probability of directly breaking through 90,000 is low.
The current rise should be seen as a rebound first; only stabilizing above 85,000 counts as a strength shift; breaking below 80,000 targets 77,000-78,000 below. The main theme for the rest of October is simple: first bottoming, then recovery, with a direct major rise still lacking funds.MD institutions are exiting faster than retail investors. On October 7, the US stock BTC spot ETF saw a single-day outflow of $487 million, the worst in half a year. BlackRock's IBIT alone withdrew $208 million, and ETH has been bleeding for seven consecutive days.
The trigger is outside the crypto circle: US Treasury yields hit a new high since 2002, oil prices approach $100, and the Federal Reserve hints at another rate hike—facing a 5% risk-free return, no one wants to hold non-yielding BTC. Even more painful, the coin price has fallen below the ETF's average holding cost line of 84,318, with 87.5% of the $429 million liquidation being long positions.
The Federal Reserve meeting on the 27th is the focus, with close attention on ETF flows. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Imperial completed a $1.5 million seed round, led by Foundation Capital, with a valuation of $15 million.
What they are building is quite concrete: a perpetual contract aggregator, a lending platform, and a perpetual contract AMM called Armada. What caught my attention the most is Armada's design—drawing liquidity from platforms like Hyperliquid, allowing traders to access deeper order books without leaving Solana.
The derivatives sector on $SOL has never been the most bustling, but someone is filling it up. It's not just about launching a token; they are genuinely addressing the long-standing issue of "insufficient depth."
$1.5 million isn't much, but the direction is right. This trend doesn't even require me to think; the account is dancing on its own. During repeated oscillations in the session, the $PONS short position gradually carved out profits, looking better and better.
During repeated oscillations in the session, resistance above PONS is obvious; every upward push falls just short, selling pressure is strong, and trading volume is low. I warned that the high-level pressure hasn't been lifted, bears still have room, so don't rush to buy the dip.
Shorted at 0.4244, covered at 0.3409, +393.96% nailed it. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly satisfying; this profit feels comfortable.
Reduced position by 80% first, keeping 20% at cost price for protection. Take profits when you should, brothers, watch your gains. If it continues to drop, let profits run; don't panic on rebounds, protection levels are already adjusted.
Risk control done upfront is called rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive.
Don't get inflated by profits, don't despair over pullbacks.
For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in; chasing shorts at low levels isn't cost-effective. Wait for a new structure to emerge, the market isn't short of opportunities, what's lacking is patience.
$BNB $DOGE 100x leverage is truly a double-edged sword, and this ETH pullback has definitely taught me a hard lesson.
Just as I entered a long position, the market moved, and my account instantly turned red.
Playing with high leverage, even a slight move against you magnifies unrealized losses infinitely, with the liquidation sword always hanging over your head.
Trading isn’t just about how much you can earn; risk management should always come first.
There are always market opportunities, but blindly going heavy with high leverage will eventually wipe out your principal.
#September FOMC minutes released, most officials favor another rate hike #BTC spot ETF sees largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months #Check in with OKX at 2049 $BTC $ETH $ZECThis time it's not Wall Street.
It's Thailand's turn.
Starting from October 16, Thailand's new regulations officially take effect: local asset management companies can issue BTC and ETH spot ETFs and trade them directly on the Thailand Stock Exchange.
What I think is most worth noting about this news is not "another country approving Crypto ETFs."
But that the way ordinary people access Crypto is changing.
In the past, to buy BTC:
You had to register on an exchange, learn how to deposit, learn about wallets, remember mnemonic phrases,
And worry about transferring coins to the wrong chain.
Now, more and more places are turning it into something else:
Open the account you originally used to buy stocks or funds,
Search for an ETF, and buy it.
You might not even need to know what a wallet is.
And Thailand's new rules are not casual:
Funds must invest at least 80% of net assets in the corresponding single crypto asset;
The first batch includes only BTC and ETH;
Assets must be held by custodians regulated by Thailand;
Brokerages are even prohibited from lending money to clients to buy these Crypto ETFs.
This actually reveals a pretty clear direction:
Regulation is not making Crypto disappear.
What it is doing is fitting Crypto into the familiar framework of traditional finance.
The U.S. is doing this.
Hong Kong is doing this.
Now Thailand is starting to move forward too.
The day Crypto truly enters the mass market
May not be the day everyone has an on-chain wallet.
On the contrary—
It might be the day many people already hold BTC
But have never touched a private key.Zhuang Ge, give me some strength! Yesterday's crash was so fierce, keep it going tonight. Can you give me some hope?
Last night, a big bearish candle dropped from 2586 to 2405, nearly 200 points down, that was exhilarating. Today during the day it bounced back to 2535, now at 2484, down 0.75%.
All three lines are stuck between 2480-2495, price is oscillating around them, no clear direction yet.
But there's an interesting piece of news — a certain address is long ETH with 20x leverage, cumulative profit $9.26 million, 100% win rate. Smart money is going long, indicating some expect a rebound. But I don't believe it; even a 100% win rate will hit zero one day, the more so at times like this, the more dangerous it is.
I'm still holding my short, stop loss at 2570, take profit at 2435, floating profit 3U. Not much, but at least the direction hasn't reversed.
Zhuang Ge, you smashed it so hard yesterday, show us a performance tonight again. Give me some face, if you crash it to 2435 I'll run. You give me some hope, I'll give you way.
$ETH
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 When a person’s ability to understand the market reaches the point where they have the market in mind but not in their eyes—that is, they don’t constantly watch the charts—their trading skills will greatly improve.$STRK short sellers are jumping to their deaths again, running away, and picking up 30U🤣$ETH perpetual contract, 100x short. Opening average price 2539.89, mark price 2480.15.
The yield on the screen glaringly shows +235.20%. This number is glaringly green, much like the exaggerated promises some people make. But beneath this flashy facade,
the actual realized profit is only +0.05 USDT. Five cents! Not even enough to buy half a box of matches. $BTC $SOL #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% $SOL After this round of decline, pull up the contract page and check it again. The funding rate cell is still stuck at zero, with both positive and negative rates just above one ten-thousandth of a point. Looking back over about ten periods, it was like this before the big drop and also on the day of the big drop.
The funding rate is a mutual payment between both sides: when the bulls have the upper hand, the shorts pay; when the shorts are pressing the market, the bulls pay. Neither side wants to concede, so this number can only rise. Now that it’s stuck at zero, it means neither side sees any cheap advantage ahead. Despite the drop, leveraged money basically hasn’t come in to take the opposite side of the bet.
After a sharp drop, price and volume reflect internal market activity, while the funding rate indicates whether outside players are willing to come in. Price has stabilized, volume has held, and the funding rate is at zero. Reading these together, those who sold have finished their selling, those who bought are holding the current price, and the big money outside the market is still on the sidelines, not yet showing their hand.
This kind of situation is a test of patience because everyone is waiting for the other side to make the first move. Those holding coins want a new batch of money to come in and push prices up; those outside want the price to drop further so they can buy even lower. With the funding rate unchanged, both sides are stuck in this deadlock, and the sideways market is a result of this stalemate.
No need to rush the funding rate to show signs. After a sharp drop, the market needs several days to rest. Money will only come back once the market stabilizes and shows a pattern. When that number moves away from zero, and the farther it moves, it means one side has started to bet real money. Market activity will then pick up accordingly.
During trading, just casually glance at the funding rate cell. On days it’s stuck at zero, treat the sideways market as it is. When that number moves, re-examine it together with the market activity.