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#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
BTC broke through $75,000, with nearly $3 billion liquidated in 24 hours and ETF net inflows exceeding $700 million in a single day — is this a short squeeze frenzy or a signal of a bull return?
The rapid surge triggered concentrated short covering. Multiple data sources show that the crypto market liquidation scale approached $3 billion within 24 hours, shorts were heavily squeezed, forming the core driving force of a "short squeeze rally," resonating with the divergent signals from the White House summit, Trump's speech, and the Fed minutes.
Behind BTC breaking through $75,000 is the dual push of short squeeze pressure and ETF inflows. The difference is: the short squeeze is a short-term pulse, while ETF inflows represent a mid-term trend. Whether the $73,000-$74,000 range can hold in the next few days will determine the nature of this breakout.
$BTC $ETH Trump publicly stated that the CFTC chair is pushing for Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. market in a compliant manner. After the news broke, $HYPE surged rapidly, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 20%. Many people's first reaction is: "Is HYPE about to take off?" Some have even started shouting: The next hundredfold coin will be HYPE. But I actually want to pour cold water on it. 1. If Hyperliquid really enters the United States, how significant would it be? I believe this is not an ordinary positive development. Hyperliquid is essentially competing for a very large market: global perpetual contracts and on-chain trading. The United States is also one of the world's most important financial markets. If Hyperliquid can enter the U.S. market through regulatory channels in the future, it could move from being a crypto-native trading platform to a more compliant, institutionalized financial infrastructure. This is where the market is truly excited. And now, Hyperliquid is no longer a small project. CoinGecko's Q2 2026 report shows that HYPE has entered the top ten global cryptocurrency market capitalizations. So this is no longer a story of "a small coin suddenly discovering a new narrative." Instead: a platform that already has products, users, and trading volume, and is trying to enter the U.S. market. 2. Can HYPE still multiply a hundredfold? Here, I will speak directly with my view: theoretically yes, but in reality, the difficulty is extremely high. Why?$HYPE This wave was ignited by a single sentence from Trump, a 27% increase, but my thinking is: the positive news is "expectation," not "realization," don't chase between 73–76.
At the White House meeting on 8/19, Trump specifically named CFTC Chairman Selig pushing Hyperliquid's "full compliance" entry into the US. HYPE jumped directly from 58 to 72–74, rising 23–27% in 24 hours, market cap surged to 16–18 billion, volume broke 1.3 billion dollars, just a few dollars short of the new high of 76.5 on 6/16. This is pure news-driven short squeeze.
But brothers, look clearly: Trump said "working very hard," no approval, no timetable, no registration. CFTC entry into the US still requires at least 3–12 months of preparation, custody/leverage/market monitoring are all unresolved. Previously on 8/17 at SanDisk investor day, I called for taking profits because of this—expectations were overdrawn, and the price fell when the news landed. Hyperliquid is following the same script now: someone bought 719 CALLs 4 hours in advance (65,000 dollars), clearly suspicious of insider information, this kind of pump is the most dangerous.
Also, it is just 3 dollars away from the new high, with 76.5 above being a solid historical resistance level. Once compliance progress stalls, sentiment will retreat starting at 20%.
HYPE is the brightest among the 6 coins this wave, but also the most fragile This wave has clearly exceeded previous expectations. $BTC is currently around $74,386. Starting from about $64,000 a few days ago, the short-term increase has already exceeded 15%, and it has broken through two key levels at $70,000 and $72,000.
The logic behind this rally is forming a positive feedback loop: the U.S. Treasury is increasing long-term bond repurchases, improving market liquidity expectations; Trump is pushing the CLARITY Act, warming regulatory expectations; meanwhile, U.S. stock ETF funds are flowing back, with a net inflow of about $517 million into the U.S. spot BTC ETF on August 19.
Key levels to watch next:
* 72,000–73,000: has now shifted from resistance to the first support
* 74,500–75,000: current short-term resistance zone
* 78,000–80,000: next target area if $75,000 is broken with volume
* If it quickly falls below $72,000, be cautious of a retest near $70,000
Technically, the biggest feature now is accelerated rise after the breakout, but the short term is clearly overheated. A pullback of about 5% to even 10% after continuous gains would not be surprising.
My judgment: the trend has turned stronger, so avoid shorting lightly for now, but also do not FOMO chase the rally. If $75,000 can hold with volume, the next phase will likely target $78,000–$80,000; if the rally fails, a retest near $72,000 would actually be a healthier move.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ To judge whether this BTC rally can continue, I pay more attention to whether ETFs can have continuous inflows rather than a large amount on a single day.
Single-day inflows can create sentiment, but continuous inflows for two weeks can indicate that institutional demand has returned. Before confirming sustained capital, it is better to build positions slowly rather than hastily. $SOL 🔥 SOL Surged to $89 — $90 is Next!
Up 6% in 24h and 15% in 7 days. Reason: $14.58M net inflow into Solana ETF yesterday ($7.14M GSOL, $6.57M BSOL). Also supported by US Treasury buyback program and Clarity Act momentum.
$90.21 resistance is key — crossing this means more upside. A PoH vulnerability was found, but it will be fixed by the Alpenglow upgrade.
Breakout or reject at $89? Watch $90!
#SOL #Solana #CryptoMarket$BTC pulled from 68000 to 75000, reminding me of a similar market move last time.
Last time was the same: a continuous rally, shorts getting liquidated all the way, price accelerating faster and faster.
What was the result?
- After reaching the peak, it started to consolidate sideways
- After a few days of sideways movement, a sudden crash buried the bulls
- Then it kept dropping, retail investors chasing highs and selling lows
Will it be different this time?
- Macro environment is different: US Treasury increased long-term bond repurchases, liquidity is loose
- Regulatory environment is different: Trump White House summit, regulations are becoming clearer
- Capital flow is different: institutional funds are entering, not retail pushing the price
But one thing is the same: after a big rise, there will be a fall; there is no market that only goes up without falling.
I opened a short at 72500, stop loss at 75000, currently at a floating loss.
Losing 200,000 USDT trying to recover, history doesn’t simply repeat but rhymes.
Don’t hold losing positions without stop loss; admit mistakes when wrong, hold when right.
If 75000 can’t be broken, hold the short; if 75000 is broken, stop loss and accept the loss.
Resistance above at 75000/76500, support below at 74000/72000.
#BTC accelerating rally, can the funds continue to take over? What indicators do you want? The market manipulators can draw any for you.
If you want the indicator for breaking through ma120, here it is.
If you want the indicator for breaking through ma250, here it is too.
According to previous bull market characteristics, it really has bounced back.
But is it really that simple? Are the market manipulators playing tricks?
There are a few points I am suspicious about:
First, at the beginning of a bull market, there must be deep deleveraging, which is not happening now.
(Not deleveraging is like carrying a motorcycle uphill)
At the start of a bull market, there must be massive accumulation in spot, which I haven't seen.
At the start of a bull market, BTC usually rises alone, but now ETH looks more like BTC.
Currently, every rebound starts with ETH rebounding and rising first.
(This indicates market funds are hungry, and retail investors are eager for a surge)
Secondly, the adjustment period hasn't arrived yet, this measure is very important.
$BTC $SKHYNIX
#海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认
Supportive Bottom Line (Core Reason for Limited Drop)
1. The largest buyback in history is the strongest floor: 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation, executed within 3 months, directly stabilizing market panic after the plunge, foreign capital begins to flow back to take over, firmly establishing a short-term bottom near 1100.
2. The fundamental hard logic remains intact: AI's HBM memory orders are booked through next year, storage prices continue to rise, Q2 profits surged, only slightly below expectations causing the earlier sharp drop; also confirmed building a factory in Japan to expand production, labor and management agreed on salary increases + bonuses paid in stock, strike risk eliminated.
3. Storage sector collectively warming up: SanDisk and Micron strengthening simultaneously, Samsung following with increased dividend plans, sector heat collectively supporting the stock price.
Bearish Factors Limit Large Gains (Difficult to Sustain Sharp Rallies)
1. A large amount of trapped positions from the previous sharp drop, some will take profits and exit on any rally;
2. HBM long-term contract price locks limit profit flexibility compared to Samsung, institutions hesitate to chase high prices; plus ongoing US antitrust lawsuit remains unresolved.#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
From the latest financial report, Pop Mart is at a turning point
▶️ Growth is slowing, but it remains a giant
Half-year revenue of ¥17.17 billion and profit of ¥5.04 billion. Although profit growth at 10.1% lags behind revenue growth of 23.8%, with cost and operational pressures emerging, the overall scale is still impressive. It’s not failing, but transitioning from wild rapid growth to a mature phase requiring refined operations
▶️ Overseas decline, globalization harder than expected
Asia-Pacific and Americas revenue dropped 9.7% and 16.5% respectively, indicating overseas consumers’ enthusiasm is cooling after the novelty period. In contrast, domestic growth is 47.3%, showing a very solid base
▶️ Rapid IP rotation, coexistence of cash flow and inventory pressure
LABUBU revenue fell 7.5%, while Star People surged nearly sixfold to second place. This proves it still has star-making ability, but if new IP lifecycles are too short, inventory and turnover pressure will increase
✍️ What’s next
▶️ Focus on experience
Relying solely on blind boxes won’t extend lifecycles; it will accelerate integration with theme parks, large offline experience stores, and high-end derivatives to increase premium
▶️ Deep cultivation
Shrink inefficient online channels overseas, shift to opening flagship stores in core landmarks to build brand presence
▶️ Valuation reset
The capital market will no longer assign it explosive high-tech valuations but will revert to traditional consumer retail enterprise standards
As long as multiple IPs continue to succeed without interruption, it remains the leader, but the past myth of doubling growth at a wild pace is indeed hard to replicate Trump earned over $1.4 billion through crypto business in 2025.
This is his financial disclosure data for his first year back in the White House.
What does $1.4 billion mean? It far exceeds his total corporate revenue of at least $622 million for the entire year of 2024.
Financial interests speak louder than any statement.
A president made $1.4 billion from the crypto industry in one year.
Do you think he would suppress this industry?
Do you think he would let this industry leave the US?
No.
This is not "political support," this is "business interest."
So what was the market reaction?
BTC surged straight from $64,000, reaching a high of $72,000.
A 24-hour increase of over 11%, the largest single-day gain since March.
Ethereum rose 19%, reclaiming $2,200. Solana and XRP rose over 5%. TRUMP coin surged over 26% intraday.
Short sellers were wiped out.
Coinglass data shows nearly 200,000 liquidations globally in 24 hours, totaling $3.343 billion. Short liquidations exceeded $3 billion.
Over $1 billion in short positions were forcibly closed within one hour.
This is the largest short squeeze since 2021.
Meanwhile, US BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $517 million in one day. BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $285 million. Total crypto ETF inflows reached $706 million in one day.
This is no coincidence.
This is a perfect resonance between policy expectations and short structures.
So, what does this rally really mean?
Some say it's a short squeeze. Some say it's a technical rebound.
But I think something bigger is happening.
If the US truly starts including BTC as a national reserve asset — the valuation model of this market will be completely rewritten.
What was BTC's narrative before? "Digital gold," "inflation hedge," "safe haven asset."
Now? "National strategic reserve asset."
When a country's executive branch openly discusses "large-scale purchases" of an asset — the pricing logic of that asset is no longer determined by retail and institutions.
Sovereign buying is on another level.
$75,000? It might just be the starting point of a new paradigm.
But note —
Trump said "discussion," not "execution."
No plan, no funding source, no timeline.
Policy expectations can ignite the market, but implementation guarantees the trend.
On September 15, the Senate will vote on the CLARITY Act.
That will be the real test.
If the bill passes, the paradigm shift is confirmed.
If it doesn't, everything goes back to square one.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
Just finished reading the July FOMC meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve, and my immediate impression is that internal policy disagreements have been laid bare.
The vote was 9 to 3, with most officials agreeing to keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the 3.5%-3.75% range. However, three officials—Logan, Harker, and Kashkari—voted against, advocating for a 25 basis point rate hike. On one side, the majority chose to hold steady; on the other, some officials still want to continue tightening monetary policy. The internal division is quite clear.
The minutes also clearly state that many members believe if inflation does not fall as expected, policy tightening will need to continue. However, July's CPI cooling off, combined with weaker employment data, has reduced the urgency for an immediate rate hike. According to CME's rate tools, the market currently prices about a 67% chance of no rate hike in September.
Another noteworthy detail is that the minutes specifically mention AI infrastructure financing, AI stock valuations, and financial stability risks brought by U.S. Treasury volatility. This indicates the Fed is already wary of potential risks from an overheated AI market.
In my view, the market is no longer just betting on whether there will be a rate hike in September. The recurring inflation, volatility in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and AI asset valuation bubble risks are variables that will continue to influence risk asset pricing. For equities and crypto—types of risk assets—this environment of internal disagreement makes the market prone to repeated fluctuations. It’s not simple to make a one-sided bet; upcoming inflation and employment data remain the core indicators to watch. U.S. CLARITY Act, a milestone legislation in the crypto industry
Market rumors suggest the bill is about to be submitted for Trump's signature, but there is still contention in the Senate, so it cannot be considered 100% certain to pass and remains uncertain. If officially enacted, it will reshape the U.S. crypto regulatory landscape:
1. Clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC; BTC and ETH are expected to be classified as digital commodities under CFTC jurisdiction, removing them from the securities regulatory framework.
2. Open-source DeFi developers will receive safe harbor protections, recognizing user self-custody wallets, and non-custodial DeFi protocols may be exempt from certain intermediary registration obligations.
3. Open pathways for traditional institutions to enter the market; banks and brokerages can apply for relevant licenses, paving the way for large-scale institutional capital inflows.
From a market perspective, the recent BTC rally has largely priced in optimistic expectations for the bill's passage. It is important to note: if the Senate review falls short of expectations, there is a risk of a reversal and pullback in the market.
$BTC#BTC accelerating upward, can the funds continue to follow through? This round of BTC price surge breakthrough
is mainly driven by three core forces simultaneously.
First, the U.S. Treasury plans to expand long-term Treasury repurchases,
which the market interprets as a marginal improvement in liquidity, weakening the dollar index, benefiting risk assets collectively.
Second, on August 19, the U.S. spot ETF net inflow was about $517 million,
with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $285 million in spot funds, clearly indicating a capital inflow.
Third, in the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidations exceeded $3.2 billion,
a large number of short positions were continuously swept out, creating a typical short squeeze scenario. $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
After SanDisk released its long-term growth targets at Investor Day, its stock price surged briefly but then retreated from the highs, opening down over 9% on August 18. Although it rebounded alongside SK Hynix, Micron, and others on the 19th, it closed weaker again, with SanDisk down about 3.5%, and Western Digital and Seagate falling even more. Short-term funds are frequently rotating within the sector, reflecting the market's deep tension over the sustainability of AI storage demand, the execution of long-term customer agreements, and current valuation levels.
Bank of America pointed out that SanDisk's long-term growth and margin targets can provide valuation references for peers like Micron, but achieving them heavily depends on NAND price trends, the pace of customer agreement implementation, and whether AI server demand can truly support profit margins. In other words, the story is very attractive, but the financials need to be verified.
What is even more intriguing is the behavior of capital—revenues are still growing, yet capital is retreating first. The surge in long-term interest rates has become an important macro backdrop suppressing AI assets, with high-valuation sectors showing significantly increased sensitivity to interest rates. Storage stocks are currently not a simple fundamental bull-bear battle but a timing mismatch between "long-term vision" and "short-term interest rates/inventory/orders."
Current key points of contention:
· AI storage is a structural growth driver, but can it offset the cyclical downturn in consumer NAND?
· Long-term agreements lock in prices, but will customers renegotiate at the turning point of the cycle?
· The valuation anchor is shifting from DRAM/NAND cycle PE to growth premium, requiring continuous quarterly report validation. Bitcoin is indeed strong; last time I said it would break the 70,000 level, and it happened within minutes. This time I said it would reach the 75,000~78,000 target zone, and it has just about arrived. At this point, guessing the top or looking for reasons behind the rise is pointless. Shorting still requires patience; you can't be reckless. Many people might be afraid of the height and hesitant to get in on the long side, so overcoming the fear of missing out is key. If you didn't participate, then don't; observing and learning isn't a bad thing.
Sometimes simple math is the most straightforward approach. This was proven effective when calculating SpaceX's stock price tops and bottoms before. 6.25×1.2=7.5, meaning even 5x leverage has already been liquidated. If 3x leverage gets liquidated, the target price would be above 83,000, and 83,000 is just slightly above the previous high of 82,800, which confirms the 57,000 bottom.
As I said yesterday, from a chip perspective, there is actually little resistance below 80,000. Whether the final price reaches that, I don't know; we'll see as it goes. After all, once Bitcoin starts moving, the pace will be very fast $BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ #$BTC 已回升至约 $73.1K，$ETH 也站上 $2.31K 附近，市场风险偏好明显回暖。 这轮上涨背后不只是技术反弹：美国财政部扩大长期国债回购规模，市场对流动性改善的预期升温；同时，美股现货 BTC ETF 单日净流入约 $517M，为数月来较强的一次资金流入，进一步强化了 BTC 的上行动能。 但问题依然存在——资金是否真的开始向山寨币扩散？ $BEAT、$BICO、$KAITO、$LAB、$SNDK 这些高波动品种虽然出现反弹，但目前还需要更明显的成交量和持续买盘来确认趋势反转。 我的判断很简单： 🟠 BTC：强势领涨，关注 $72K–$70K 能否转化为新的支撑 🔵 ETH：重新站上 $2.3K，继续观察能否持续跑赢 BTC 🟣 Altcoins：暂时不能急着定义为全面 Altseason 🟢 关键指标：BTC 资金是否开始流向 ETH、SOL 以及中小市值代币 真正的山寨季，不是几个币突然拉升，而是市场成交量持续放大、资金广泛轮动、越来越多山寨币形成更高的低点和更高的高点。 所以现在更重要的不是追涨，而是等待资金扩散得到确认。 BTC 先走强 ≠ AltseaGalaChain has once again exposed a serious security vulnerability. On-chain monitoring shows that 5 core addresses suddenly transferred about 1.99 billion GALA (equivalent to approximately $2.9 million) and some other tokens to new wallets, and quickly exchanged them for ETH via cross-chain bridges within about an hour. Controversially, nearly 82% of the transferred GALA (about 1.639 billion tokens) came directly from wallets associated with Gala CEO and co-founder Eric Schiermeyer. After the incident, Gala urgently suspended the Ethereum and Solana cross-chain bridges, which remain non-operational. More sensitive to the market than a simple code vulnerability is the identity of the affected addresses. As the project CEO, Eric Schiermeyer's associated wallets hold massive token amounts, symbolizing the core trust of the ecosystem. After the incident, Gala took the most direct defensive measure—cutting off the cross-chain bridges between Ethereum and Solana. Although this "physical disconnection" prevented further asset outflows, it also locked ordinary users' cross-chain assets, casting doubt on the daily operation of the entire ecosystem. Code vulnerabilities can be quickly fixed with technical patches, but failures in mechanism design and executive key security are difficult to resolve with unilateral emergency shutdowns. Currently, the Gala team has not provided a complete response regarding detailed investigation, accountability, or remediation plans for the affected assets. Regarding G If you can't beat them, join them!
How to play this market?
I don't understand it either!
Go long!
Chase the longs!
Chase the dragon!
Foolish play!
Even the whales have been liquidated!
To be more precise,
it's the $222 million worth of BTC and ETH short positions all stopped out.
Lost $6.283 million in one trade.
Yesterday's long positions earned $20 million.
Today's shorts gave back $6.28 million.
Net profit still $13.72 million.
The whales have been forced by the market to admit they were wrong.
What technical analysis can a small retail trader like me study?
I directly chased 78 ETH around 2357.
100x leverage.
Made $69 as soon as I entered.
Don't ask about the logic.
The logic is: if you can't beat the dog whales,
then just ride their train.
——
$ETH is still hovering around 2350 to 2370.
Trading volume about $36.8 billion.
There is some news too.
The U.S. is expanding long-term Treasury repurchases.
Yields and the dollar are both falling.
Combined with rising regulatory expectations,
it directly ignited risk assets.
ETH spot ETFs had continuous net inflows from the 17th to the 19th,
totaling about $289 million over three days.
On the 20th, another $10.3 million flowed in so far.
This wave really has real money following.
It's not just dog whales forcibly pumping.
But open interest on contracts has also returned to 13.2 million ETH.
Short-term increase of 270,000 ETH again.
This shows leverage is building up again.
2300 is holding.
Above that, it can continue to test 2400 to 2430.
If 2300 breaks,
chasing the dragon will immediately turn into bag holding.
The most exciting part is,
my liquidation price is at 2279,
only about 3% away from now.
Mouth shouting chase the dragon,
palms are already sweating.
——
$BEAT I still say the same thing.
The chart looks like dog whales are continuously unloading.
Now only around 0.11 left.
Down about 24% in 24 hours.
Down over 85% in 7 days.
Market cap only about $38 million.
But daily volume is over $28 million.
Such high turnover.
Price keeps hugging the lows.
This doesn't look like a scramble to accumulate.
More like chips changing hands on one side,
while being dumped downward on the other.
21.25 million tokens unlocked on August 1st.
11.25 million more waiting to unlock on September 1st.
You think this is the bottom?
Dog whales tell you there's a basement below.
——
$SNDK on the other hand can be slowly accumulated.
Current price around $1600.
Up about 2% in one day.
Q4 revenue $8.965 billion,
up 51% quarter-over-quarter.
Full-year data center business up 437%.
Company also added $14 billion in buybacks.
This fundamental is real.
Not just pumped by hype.
But this stock's volatility is crazy.
I'm preparing to hold some base position first.
I no longer study dog whales.
If you can't beat them,
just ride their train.
Just afraid that as soon as I get on,
it suddenly reaches the station.
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX 我先把观点摆在这里： 现在最危险的地方，就是涨得太快、空头被挤得太干净了。 过去两天，比特币从6万多一路冲破7.2万美元，连续逼空，大量空头被迫止损买回，市场出现了极其猛烈的强制买盘。 问题来了： 空头都被爆得差不多了，接下来谁来继续接盘？ 这才是我真正担心的地方。 这一轮上涨的燃料，本身就有一部分来自： ① 空头爆仓 ② 踏空资金追涨 ③ ETF资金流入 ④ 美国财政部增加长期国债回购，缓解收益率压力 ⑤ 特朗普政府持续释放利好加密市场的政策信号。 这些东西叠在一起，确实能把BTC快速推上去。 但逼空不是永动机。 当空头已经被清理，逼空行情自然会逐渐失去最强的边际买盘。 而真正让我警惕的，是下一步。 如果BTC继续往上冲，市场情绪会迅速从“解套”变成“疯狂追涨”。 ETH、XRP、SOL、DOGE、HYPE、PEPE这些高弹性资产也会开始轮动。 然后你会发现： 大家又开始觉得牛市回来了。 这时候，真正危险的东西反而出现了—— 杠杆。 上涨的时候没人觉得杠杆危险。 因为价格每天都在涨，浮盈不断扩大，很多人会忍不住加仓。 但只要BTC在高位突然回撤5%—8%，第一批高杠杆资金开始止损。 Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Performance Outlook (Based on Market Structure and Analyst Views Around August 21, 2026)
The current market has just experienced a rapid rebound driven jointly by a short squeeze, the U.S. Treasury expanding long-term bond repurchases, the Trump White House crypto summit (promoting the CLARITY Act), and ETF capital inflows. BTC broke through the previous six-week consolidation range, approaching or touching around $75,000; ETH performed even stronger, with a single-day gain previously close to 20%. Sentiment has quickly shifted from fear to greed (Fear & Greed Index around 69-72).
Bitcoin (BTC) Short-Term Key Levels and Scenarios
Current approximate range: about $74,000–$75,000.
• Bullish scenario (more optimistic):
If BTC can hold the breakout and close daily above $72,000–$73,000, the next target generally points to $73,000–$76,000, with some analysts targeting the $75,000–$80,000 area.
Under stronger momentum, some mention further testing higher resistance (such as near active investor cost basis around $75,800).
Drivers: continued ETF net inflows, improved liquidity, momentum continuation after short liquidations.
• Consolidation/Correction scenario (more likely short term):
After a rapid rise, RSI has entered overbought territory, so short-term oscillation or correction to digest gains is possible.
Key supports: $70,000–$71,000 (psychological level and recent breakout), $68,000–$69,000 (previous resistance turned support).
If it breaks below $67,000–$68,000, a retest of $65,000–$66,000 range is possible.
• Risk scenario: If macro data (such as employment, PMI) deteriorate or regulatory expectations fail, a deeper correction may occur, but the overall structure has clearly improved currently.
Technically, breaking above long-term moving averages (such as near the 200-day EMA) is a positive signal, but whether volume and subsequent spot buying can replace "short covering" is key.
Ethereum (ETH) Short-Term Key Levels and Scenarios
Current approximate range: around $2,350.
• Bullish scenario:
ETH has outperformed BTC; the ETH/BTC ratio shows a potential bottom reversal structure (some analyses suggest about 30%-40% relative upside, targeting around 0.040–0.042 BTC).
If momentum continues, short-term targets could be $2,400–$2,500 or even higher (depending on BTC’s movement).
Institutional interest in ETH allocation has recently increased significantly (Q2 holdings data and ETF inflows improved).
• Consolidation scenario:
After a rapid surge, oscillation to digest gains is also possible. Support levels to watch are $2,200–$2,250, with lower support near $2,100.
ETH’s advantages lie in DeFi, Layer 2 ecosystems, institutional allocation bias, and potential regulatory tailwinds, showing relative strength over BTC recently.
Common Influencing Factors and Time Window
Bullish factors:
• U.S. Treasury liquidity support + decline in long-term rates → risk appetite recovery.
• Improved regulatory expectations (progress on CLARITY Act, discussions on compliant paths like Hyperliquid).
• ETF capital inflows and increased institutional holdings.
• Large short positions have been cleared, reducing short-term selling pressure.
Potential risks:
• Profit-taking after short-term overbought conditions.
• Jackson Hole central bank symposium (late August) and subsequent macro data may trigger volatility.
• If ETF inflows slow or spot buying is insufficient, upward sustainability will be challenged.
• Seasonal factors (August historically not the strongest month).
Mid-term perspective (next few weeks to quarters):
Most technical analyses believe this breakout has improved the structure; if key supports hold and capital continues flowing in, higher range-bound oscillation or further upside is possible. However, the market is more institutionalized now, so volatility may be lower than past cycles, reducing the probability of sharp one-sided surges or crashes.
Summary Judgment
• Short term (days to 1-2 weeks): High probability of initial consolidation to digest overbought conditions; direction depends on whether the breakout level holds. BTC’s priority is to stabilize above $70,000, while ETH may show better relative resilience.
• Mid term: Bullish structure dominates but requires confirmation of capital and macro alignment. Targets reference $75,000–$80,000 (BTC) and stronger relative performance (ETH).$#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
The July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve show a 9-3 vote, with ongoing disagreements among officials about rate hikes.
The Federal Reserve's July FOMC minutes have been officially released. The interest rate decision vote was 9 in favor of keeping rates unchanged and 3 against. Officials Logan, Harker, and Kashkari advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike, highlighting policy divisions. The meeting ultimately kept the federal funds rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range.
The minutes reveal signals of a tug-of-war: most officials agreed on pausing rate hikes, but several reserved the option to tighten policy further, stating that if inflation falls short of expectations, the Fed does not rule out additional hikes.
Recent macro data has introduced constraints: July CPI cooled down, and employment data weakened simultaneously, reducing the immediate need for a rate hike. According to CME tracking data, the market currently prices about a 67% probability of rates remaining unchanged in September.
Notably, the minutes added new key risk warnings, specifically naming the AI infrastructure financing boom, AI stock valuation bubbles, and sharp volatility in U.S. Treasury bonds as potential triggers for financial stability risks.
For risk assets like crypto and U.S. stocks, the core of the current tug-of-war is no longer just whether to hike rates in September. Inflation resilience, the trajectory of long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and valuation correction pressure in the AI sector are three major variables continuously reshaping asset pricing logic, potentially amplifying market volatility further. $CORE Research Analysis: Is BTCFi's next round of capital rotation undervalued assets, or just another public chain bubble? 1. Core Viewpoint: $CORE is not an ordinary public blockchain, but a bet on BTC's next phase of asset efficiency revolution. In recent years, the crypto market has gone through several distinct phases: in 2020, the market traded $BTC digital gold narrative. In 2021, funds chased smart contract public chains, with Layer 1s represented by $ETH, $SOL, and $AVAX exploding. In 2022-2023, the market entered infrastructure competition, with Rollups, modularity, and public chain performance becoming the core. From 2024 to 2026, a new direction is taking shape: how to transform $BTC from a passive store-of-value asset into a financial infrastructure capable of generating yields, participating in DeFi, and unlocking liquidity. This is BTCFi. The biggest misconception in the market right now is that many investors believe: "Bitcoin ecosystem = Ordinals + Inscriptions + Meme." But what real big money is focused on isn't short-term speculation, but rather: if $BTC assets with a global market cap exceeding a trillion dollars could enter DeFi, what kind of financial market would emerge? This is precisely $CORE's biggest investment logic. Core DAOs are essentially competing for a position: to become a crucial foundation connecting $BTC assets with the world of smart contractsA notable detail is that Ethereum's market capitalization is $283.89 billion
which has significantly shrunk from $437 billion in July 2025, dropping its ranking from 29th to 72nd among global assets.
In contrast, Bitcoin's decline is more restrained, further confirming the current structural trend of funds concentrating in Bitcoin rather than a general recovery across the entire crypto market.#BTC accelerating the rally, can the funds continue to take over? Folks, this surge in BTC is really fast.
OKX's on-platform BTC spot price has already surged above $75,000, with nearly $3 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours. Remember a few days ago it was hovering around $65,000, now it’s directly hit $75,000. This bullish candle is truly a pile of short-sellers' corpses.
However, I feel this rally is a bit too aggressive. After the shorts are fully liquidated, the market will depend on whether spot buying can hold. Nearly $3 billion liquidated in 24 hours indicates a large part of this rally’s momentum comes from shorts capitulating, not from active buying pushing the price up. There are two signals to watch closely next.
The first is ETF funds. On August 19, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of about $706 million, with $517 million of that being real incremental inflow for BTC. Whether this number can continue to grow will determine if this rally is a short squeeze or the start of a true major trend. If ETF inflows can maintain above $500 million in the coming days, it means institutions are genuinely increasing positions, not just short-term arbitrage.
The second is stablecoin inflows. Trading volume is expanding in this rally, but without sufficient incremental capital entering, a high-level consolidation will likely trigger profit-taking. As long as USDT circulation continues to rise, it indicates off-exchange funds are entering, providing a foundation for the trend to continue. $BTC $ETH $SOL Bitcoin's sudden surge is not driven by a single piece of news, but by three forces working together:
1️⃣ Shorts are being squeezed and forced to cover
In the past few months, Bitcoin dropped from $126,000 to $58,000, with every rebound basically pushed back down. During the decline, the market collectively shorted on rallies, and short positions have been heavily crowded. Once the price breaks upward, short liquidations force buying, creating a "rise → liquidation → further rise" cycle that directly propels the market.
2️⃣ U.S. Treasury injects liquidity
Starting September 9, the long-term Treasury repo limit was raised from $2 billion to $4 billion, suppressing U.S. bond yields and weakening the dollar. Once liquidity loosens, risk asset valuations begin to recover.
3️⃣ U.S. crypto policy sentiment is highly positive
Trump met with executives from multiple crypto companies, expressing intentions to make the U.S. a global digital asset hub and mentioning consideration of government increasing Bitcoin holdings. Regulatory friendliness expectations have directly ignited market sentiment.
However, signals are just signals; actual legislation and policies still need to be implemented. Emotion-driven market fluctuations will be especially volatile, so be cautious of risks.
$BTC #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ In-depth Review: Four Core Reasons Behind This Round of BTC's Violent Surge
$BTC $BTC
The long-dormant narrow consolidation has completely ended, with BTC rising over 15% in two days, firmly holding above $72,000, hitting a two-month high. Ethereum surged 20% in two days. This surge is not short-term speculation but a convergence of four major factors: regulatory turning point + macro liquidity shift + epic short squeeze + early institutional positioning, releasing long-accumulated bullish momentum all at once. Below is a detailed breakdown of the fundamental reasons:
1. Regulatory policy has fully reached a turning point, removing the biggest bearish factor that suppressed the market for over a year (core emotional catalyst)
US regulation has officially shifted from "comprehensive crackdown and enforcement-style regulation" to rule-based compliance guidance, with a series of favorable policies landing intensively, completely reversing market pessimism:
1. High-level White House industry talks
Former President Trump personally met with top executives from Coinbase, Kraken, Ripple, and other leading crypto companies at the White House, publicly urging Congress to accelerate the passage of the "CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act," which aims to clarify crypto asset attributes and delineate SEC and CFTC regulatory responsibilities, ending the long-standing regulatory gray area. He also expressed consideration of policy suggestions for US institutions to allocate Bitcoin, directly dispelling market fears of blanket policy crackdowns.
2. SEC's major new regulations launched, opening a green channel for compliant industry financing
The US SEC introduced a crypto asset registration exemption proposal, setting two tiers of financing exemption thresholds for early-stage projects, with accompanying token safe harbor provisions. Small and medium projects can issue tokens and raise funds compliantly without going through cumbersome securities registration processes, thoroughly improving the industry's survival environment and quickly restoring confidence in industry investment and financing.
3. Stablecoin regulatory timeline finalized
The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced that federal-level stablecoin regulatory rules will be implemented before November, with crypto bank license approvals opening next year. The expectation of stablecoin system compliance is greatly increased, laying a solid foundation for capital circulation in the entire crypto market.
2. US Treasury bond liquidity reaches a marginal easing turning point, weakening the dollar, directly restoring risk asset valuations (macro fundamental support)
The hardest macro driver behind this rally comes from the US Treasury's bond market intervention policy:
The US Treasury announced that the repurchase scale of long-term US bonds with maturities of 10 to 30 years will double, with the single operation cap raised from $2 billion to $4 billion, effective in September. Upon the announcement, long-term bond yields quickly plunged, and the dollar index sharply weakened to a three-month low.
Key logic:
1. In previous months, US bond yields continuously surged to multi-year highs, with risk-free investment returns remaining high, causing global funds to flock to US bonds and withdraw from high-risk assets like BTC and US tech stocks;
2. The decline in long-term bond yields significantly lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, prompting global hot money to flow back into risk assets, directly benefiting the crypto market with liquidity recovery dividends.
3. Crowded shorts triggered a concentrated stampede, staging the largest short squeeze since 2021 (direct trigger for short-term surge)
During the six-week oscillation between $61,500 and $65,000, the market consensus was bearish, with massive leveraged short positions accumulated in the futures market, laying explosive momentum for this rally:
1. After the price broke through key resistance levels, shorts triggered a chain of forced liquidations, with a total of $3.34 billion liquidated across the network in 24 hours, including $3.07 billion in short liquidations. Over $1 billion in shorts were closed within one hour, creating a positive feedback loop of "price rise → short stop-loss buybacks → further price increase → more short liquidations," forcibly turning the consolidation into a one-sided rally;
2. The market fear and greed index surged from a low range directly to 62 (greed zone), with sentiment rapidly shifting from extreme caution to chasing gains, further amplifying the rally.
4. Institutions quietly accumulated at low levels early on, spot buying laid the foundation for the rally
This surge is not a temporary pump by speculative traders. Long before the rally started, whales and institutional funds had completed accumulation at low levels:
On-chain data shows that at the bottom of this consolidation, institutional whales net increased holdings by over 43,000 BTC; OTC trading volume surged 257% month-over-month, and funds backed by listed companies continuously bought in batches at the key $60,000 support level to lock in positions.
Spot holdings are locked, circulating supply reduced, combined with subsequent futures short squeeze momentum, allowing a small amount of capital to leverage large price gains, greatly reducing resistance to the rally.
Additional key reminders (for rational reference in the future):
1. The first phase of this rally was mainly driven by short covering. With many crowded shorts cleared, whether the rally can continue depends on whether new spot funds and ETF capital can take over;
2. The bullishness is based on policy expectations. If the CLARITY Act's progress in Congress falls short of expectations or US bond yields rebound again, the market will likely face profit-taking and correction. Avoid blindly chasing highs.
Risk Warning: The above is only an analysis of market news and does not constitute any investment or trading advice.#海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认
I have been closely watching the recent shareholder return trends in the South Korean semiconductor sector.
SK Hynix's major share buyback has finally been implemented, officially announced to take place from August 20 to November 19, repurchasing a total of 24.07 million shares, accounting for 3.3% of the total share capital. The most critical point is that these repurchased shares will be fully canceled after completion, not retained as treasury stock, which is a solid positive. Based on the reference price, the total scale reaches 40 trillion KRW, marking one of the largest recent returns in the memory sector, directly increasing equity per share, and is a core driver behind the recent strengthening of Hynix's stock price.
In contrast, Samsung Electronics is still in a phase of expectation and speculation. According to the current 2024-2026 shareholder return policy, it maintains a regular dividend of 9.8 trillion KRW annually, while also returning 50% of the cumulative free cash flow over three years to shareholders. With AI-driven high demand continuing to push up memory prices, Samsung's own cash flow is steadily improving. Brokers and Korean media have generally started to speculate that Samsung might launch a new shareholder return plan exceeding 100 trillion KRW.
However, Samsung's official stance remains conservative, only responding that buyback matters are still under internal review. Neither the specific scale nor the execution timing of the buyback has been finalized, and everything currently remains at the level of market speculation. Let's talk about SanDisk's counter-trend rise today. It's not an isolated stock rally; it's the entire storage sector independently recovering amid the broader market decline.
The FOMC minutes were hawkish, but the market has basically priced that in. The Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases has suppressed long-end yields, giving semiconductors a breather.
The deeper logic remains unchanged: the pricing power logic of AI storage still holds. Micron's earnings confirmed the industry's prosperity, and SNDK, as the NAND leader, naturally follows the recovery.
However, short-term volatility won't be small; there are many trapped positions from the drop below 1800, so don't chase the highs. #海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认 $SNDK #BTC acceleration rally, can the funds continue to take over?
$BTC Since August 19, Bitcoin has rapidly surged from the $64,000 range, breaking above $69,000 intraday, with a single-day increase of over 7%. On August 20, it further broke through $71,000, rising more than 10% in 24 hours. As of August 21, Bitcoin has strongly surpassed $72,000.
The core driving force of this rally is a short squeeze. Bitcoin has long been fluctuating around $60,000, with a large number of leveraged short positions accumulated in the derivatives market. When the price breaks through a key liquidation dense area upward, a large number of short positions trigger forced liquidations, and short covering forms a chain of buy orders, creating a positive feedback loop of "the more it rises, the more explosive it gets, and the more explosive it gets, the more it rises." In the past 24 hours, a total of 184,821 people worldwide were liquidated, with a record total liquidation amount of $3.264 billion.
Multiple external catalysts have jointly triggered this rally: the US SEC disclosed a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, the White House held a crypto industry summit; the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchase scale, pushing long-end interest rates down; funds previously flowing into the AI sector have shown signs of returning.
Can the funds continue to take over next?
Can ETF funds shift from "replenishment inflows" to "sustained inflows"—this is the most direct reflection of spot buying;
Can the open interest of perpetual contracts increase again—this represents whether new leveraged longs are willing to enter the market;
The options market structure around $70,000 may amplify short-term volatility, and market makers' hedging behavior may further boost or suppress the price.#海力士回购落地，三星股东回报待确认
I have been closely following the recent shareholder return trends in the South Korean semiconductor sector. SK Hynix's large-scale buyback has finally been implemented, while Samsung's remains undecided. The expectation gap here is worth pondering.
SK Hynix officially announced its buyback plan, with an execution period from August 20 to November 19, repurchasing 24.07 million common shares, accounting for 3.3% of the total shares. After completion, all repurchased shares will be canceled. Based on the announced reference price, the total scale is about 40 trillion KRW. The direct cancellation rather than holding as treasury stock effectively reduces the share capital and boosts earnings per share, showing full sincerity.
Looking at Samsung Electronics, the current 2024-2026 shareholder return policy includes a fixed annual dividend of 9.8 trillion KRW, plus returning 50% of the cumulative free cash flow over three years to shareholders. With AI memory market conditions improving, company cash flow has significantly improved. Korean media and brokers speculate that Samsung might launch a shareholder return plan exceeding 100 trillion KRW. However, Samsung's official stance is very cautious; the buyback is still under study, with timing and scale undecided.
Here lies a core contradiction: for South Korean memory chip stocks to continue upward revaluation, relying solely on buybacks and dividends is not enough. The company's cash flow must support two major tasks simultaneously: on one hand, the capital expenditure for continuous expansion required in the AI era; on the other, shareholder returns to investors. The funds are limited, and these two demands are inversely related.BTC surged above the $72,000 mark, and DOGE retested the $0.08 area. The biggest impression of this rally wasn't that it hit the lowest point, but that it didn't exit early during the consolidation phase. My current approach: 🟠 BTC long position cost about $63,180, current price about $72,600, floating profit about $2,900, leverage 15X. Having held it all the way to now, the protective stop loss has risen to $69,800. The next key resistance is expected to be between $74,500 and $75,000. 🐶 DOGE long positions cost about $0.0726, current price about $0.0812, floating profit about $2,700, leverage 15X. DOGE did not fall behind this time, continuing to focus on the $0.083–$0.085 area in the short term. Currently, the total unrealized profit is approximately $5,600+. This rally is not driven solely by sentiment. On August 20, BTC briefly broke through $70,000, with an intraday high close to $73,000; the expansion of the U.S. long-term Treasury repurchase program, falling yields, and market expectations for clearer crypto regulation all became key catalysts for the risk asset rebound. Additionally, the liquidation of short positions exceeding $2.7B in a single day has significantly amplified the pace of this rally. So now I won't blindly chase long positions just because the price rises. 📌 My plan: BTC: Continue holding, move stop-loss up to around $70K; If it worksSisters!
I'm back in ETH again!
This time I went straight in with 5 positions!
$ETH, entered at 2,357, going long, 3x leverage, took 5 positions right away!
Do you know why I'm so aggressive?
ETH pushed from 2,220 all the way to 2,380, up 25% in 7 days, 21% in 30 days.
MA5 crossed above MA10 and MA20 at 2,024, price is above all short-term moving averages, MACD golden cross expanding, daily bullish trend confirmed.
24-hour volume is 5.46 million coins, capital is continuously flowing in. This kind of trend, if you miss it, you really miss out.
But what gives me the most confidence? Previously BICO earned 370%, SNDK also profited and exited, so the account has a profit cushion.
Before, I would stubbornly hold when losing, now I dare to push when winning.
5 positions sound like a lot, but stop loss is set at 2,200, total loss is controllable.
The risk-reward ratio is favorable: if wrong, loss is less than 1 point; if right, aiming for 2,500.
The last SNDK short trade earned over 1 point, not much, but it helped me regain my rhythm.
Now ETH is here, the account is rotating, time to act when it's time.
Stop loss at 2,200, target 2,500. Using BICO profits as fuel for ETH. Just go for it!
$BTC $SNDK
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #Anthropic plans to publicly file IPO documents by the end of August, fundraising may match SpaceX
The leader has something to say
SpaceX's IPO record has only lasted two months before being pushed down by Anthropic.
According to Bloomberg, Anthropic is expected to publicly submit IPO documents as early as the end of August. The fundraising scale is at least expected to match SpaceX's record of $75 billion, potentially reaching $86.2 billion including the overallotment option.
This company confidentially submitted the S-1 draft to the SEC on June 1 and is expected to officially list in October.
Explosive revenue, but losses are also exploding
Anthropic's preliminary Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of more than 14 times. Q1 was only $4.73 billion, doubling quarter-over-quarter. As of the end of July, the annualized recurring revenue (ARR) surpassed $65 billion, a sevenfold increase from $9 billion at the end of 2025.
On the other hand, the net loss for the full year 2025 is close to $42 billion, about four times the $8.3 billion loss in 2024.
Adjusted operating profit turned positive in Q2, which is good news. But under GAAP, net profit has not yet been achieved. Revenue growth and loss expansion are racing against each other.
Valuation target of $2 trillion, how to calculate price-to-sales ratio
The latest private funding round valued the company at $965 billion. Some investors are already discussing an IPO valuation exceeding $2 trillion. Internal company forecasts project revenue reaching $190 to $200 billion by 2028.
Based on $65 billion ARR, a $2 trillion valuation corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of about 30 times, the upper limit for high-growth SaaS companies.
Impact on the crypto market
CoinDesk has previously mentioned that SpaceX and Anthropic, the two largest IPOs in history, will continue to draw liquidity from broader markets including crypto. The most active venture capital in the market is limited, and Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are simultaneously absorbing liquidity, which takes incremental funds away from the crypto market. The price of Bitcoin dropped from 75,000 and has been fluctuating around 72,000, which is related to this context.
From another perspective, if Anthropic successfully lists with a $2 trillion valuation, it will further confirm the capital value of the AI sector. The larger the financing scale for AI infrastructure, the stronger the demand for computing power, energy, and storage, which is not bad for the crypto infrastructure layer in the long term.
Trading strategy
After the Bitcoin short positions were liquidated, I have been out of the market, missing the main upward wave from 64,000 to 75,000. Waiting for a pullback to see if the 68,000 to 69,000 range can hold before considering re-entry. Continuing to hold SPCX as a base position; the buyback logic for SK Hynix remains unchanged, will consider storage after the pullback is in place. $BTC $SOL $ETH
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop-loss orders. Good luck.$BTC Live trading is open—please note 🫡 that after BTC surged to 75,770, it did not immediately continue to rise and is currently back in the 74,650–74,750 range. Compared to the rapid rebound after the first surge, this round of pullbacks lasted longer, indicating that profit-taking at high levels is being realized and short-term bullish momentum has clearly cooled. However, it is not yet possible to directly judge a market reversal. From different timeframes: the 4-hour level still maintains a clear bullish structure, with prices standing above major moving averages and trend support, and the previous uptrend remains intact. The 1-hour level is a pullback from a high level after a major bullish candlestick. As long as it doesn't consecutively break below 74,200–74,300, the current trend is more like a chip turnover after a rally. The real weakening is at the 15-minute and 5-minute levels. The price has returned below the short-term moving average, and the rebound high is gradually decreasing, indicating that short-term selling is taking control of the rhythm. Currently, it's not advisable to chase long positions on a single green candlestick, nor to immediately short at the top just because it drops a few hundred points. Now, focus on three areas: First take-off: 74,500—74,650 Orders have some buying near 74,500, 74,550, and 74,600. If the price stops falling here and climbs back above 74,850–75,000, it means the pullback support is valid, and there is still a chance to test 75,250 and 75,770 again. Core long-short boundary: around 74,277. This is the most important position for this round of short-term structure. After the pin breaks, it quickly recovers#财报观察员: Is Pop Mart's growth shifting gears, and can multiple IPs take over?
Crypto gave me a signal to stay calm, contrasting with today's big rally in spot.
OKX's Xiaomi perpetual $XIAOMIUSDT is currently at $3.291 (about ¥23.6 CNY), down 1.02% in 24 hours, with funding rates near zero. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong stock closed near HK$27.52 today (about ¥25.3 CNY), with the perpetual trading at a discount to spot.
Derivatives are calmer than spot, with both bulls and bears cautious. Spot surged with high volume today, but perpetual is at a discount; I see this as a divergence between sentiment and fundamentals.
$XIAOMI #BTC accelerating its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
What factors have caused Bitcoin's explosive surge?
1. Macro liquidity (the core trigger)
The U.S. Treasury announced a doubling of the long-term Treasury repurchase scale, effective from September; long-term U.S. Treasury yields rapidly declined, and the U.S. dollar index weakened.
With risk-free bond yields falling, capital is willing to flow back into high-risk assets, relieving valuation pressure on Bitcoin and laying the foundation for an upward environment.
2. Shift in U.S. regulatory expectations (positive sentiment)
1. SEC new rule proposal: small token issuances can be exempt from securities registration, providing a compliance safe harbor and reducing industry policy panic;
2. The White House held a crypto industry summit, signaling an end to the "crackdown on cryptocurrencies," promoting the passage of the "CLARITY Act," and rumors emerged that the government is considering allocating Bitcoin; the market shifted from fearing strict regulation to expecting a clear and friendly regulatory framework, raising institutional risk appetite.
3. Futures market short squeeze stampede (short-term surge amplifier)
Many traders opened short positions during the previous consolidation range. After the price started to rise, shorts were consecutively forced to liquidate; liquidations require buying BTC to close positions, and passive buying further pushed prices up, creating a short squeeze.
Over $3 billion in shorts were liquidated within 24 hours, rapidly amplifying the single-day gain, representing a leveraged capital-driven impulse move.
4. On-chain chip support (underlying support)
Whale addresses showed net accumulation, continuously accumulating, reducing market floating selling pressure; combined with market sentiment entering the greed zone, retail investors followed the trend, concentrating buy orders.
Simple ranking of weights: U.S. Treasury liquidity adjustment > improved regulatory expectations > short squeeze liquidations > whale holdings + retail sentiment.
These positive factors all landed within just a few days, resonating to create this rapid rally; a single positive factor alone is unlikely to produce such a large single-day gain. 8.21 $ETH Market｜Strong Bullish Breakout, Mid-term Trend Officially Turns Bullish
After a sharp rally yesterday, it is currently consolidating strongly at a high level with no signs of large-scale sell-offs or escapes.
Multi-timeframe naked K-line closes with a strong bullish candle, officially establishing a short-term bullish trend. All short-term moving averages are spreading upward; as long as the pullback holds above 2300, this bullish momentum can continue.
$ETH Key Levels
Resistance: 2380, 2420
Intraday Support: 2330, 2300
Intraday Overall Strategy: Bullish bias with consolidation, firmly avoid chasing highs
Market Summary
The mid-term structure has opened a bullish pattern, but after consecutive short-term rallies, indicators are already in overbought territory at high levels.
The best approach today is to wait for the price to pull back to support before adding positions; chasing highs directly is very likely to encounter a quick retracement.
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 A complete trading plan should not only allow yourself to bottom-fish but also permit buying at higher prices after trend confirmation. Use position sizing on the left side to control uncertainty, and use cost on the right side to exchange for certainty; if no trade occurs on the left side, then execute the right side plan. Don't be afraid when prices fall, and then complain about prices being too high after they rise. $OKB
$BTC has previously entered the buying zone: either wait for a divergence to set up on the left side, or follow through on the right side after breaking through the MA200. After the breakthrough the night before last, we have bought spot and Calls, with the Calls currently profiting over 70%. At that time, BTC had just passed 70,000, with a stop loss reference around 69,000, meaning the risk is only 3%—5%; if BTC accounts for 10% of the total position, the actual account risk is only about 0.3%—0.5%, while the potential return could reach 5 to 10 times. $ETH
When the opportunity comes, execute: control position size, set stop loss, calculate cost, and leave the rest to the market. After BTC breaks through the MA200, it enters a bullish structure, and my strategy has turned bullish.04｜Dual Staking is actually a very critical design
Core's Dual Staking essentially is:
BTC + CORE.
BTC is responsible for providing capital and network security participation,
while CORE further enhances the yield tier of BTC Staking.
The official documentation has already provided the actual participation path for Dual Staking.
The economic logic behind this is worth long-term observation:
The more BTC enters Core → the larger the BTCFi scale → the stronger the demand for CORE → the increase in protocol revenue → the stronger the buyback capability.
If this flywheel truly gets going, then CORE is not just an "L1 Gas Token."
It is more like:
A value capture asset within the BTCFi economic system.Just now, the CFTC spoke more directly: if Congress doesn't act, regulators might take the lead themselves.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig publicly stated in Washington today:
If the CLARITY Act continues to stall in Congress, the CFTC will use its existing authority to start building a regulatory framework for the U.S. crypto asset market.
If the bill ultimately can't move forward, he will ask staff to quickly propose new industry rules.
This statement is much more concrete than "the U.S. supports Crypto."
The market has been waiting:
When will Congress pass crypto regulatory legislation?
Now another path has emerged:
Congress is too slow, so the SEC and CFTC will use their powers to pave the way first.
The signals over the past couple of days have formed a clear line:
The SEC first proposed new token financing rules;
Yesterday, Trump urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act and even directly named Hyperliquid;
Today, the CFTC Chairman said if the bill is stuck, regulators are ready to act first.
What’s truly worth trading on is not just a speech.
It’s that U.S. regulatory logic is shifting from:
"Who exactly regulates Crypto?"
to:
"How to legally keep these markets in the U.S.?"
For BTC and ETH, this is the logic behind the entire industry’s risk discount decreasing.
For perpetual contract platforms like HYPE, sensitivity might be even higher—because the CFTC specifically oversees the derivatives market.
But it’s still too early to say "HYPE has been approved to enter the U.S."
The real next step.03｜And Core is now entering its second phase
Early Core was more about proving:
BTC can generate revenue.
But by 2026, Core is clearly moving in another direction:
BTC revenue → protocol income → CORE value capture.
The Revenue Roadmap Core released at the end of 2025 is very clear:
Future income generated by BTCFi products will be connected to CORE buybacks through different mechanisms.
The official core goal is even summarized as:
Drive revenue and buybacks to the CORE token.
This is much more important than simply issuing incentives.
Because a truly sustainable public chain economic model must ultimately answer:
Why do users come?
Why does capital stay?
How does the protocol make money?
Why can the money the protocol earns be reflected in the token’s value?
Core is now trying to connect these four questions.#BTC accelerating its rally, can the funds continue to take over?
BTC has surged sharply in the short term, driven by optimistic regulatory expectations, declining US Treasury yields, and large-scale short liquidations, all jointly pushing this round of the market. However, the momentum structure of the rise has already shown divergence.
A large part of this rapid rise comes from short covering, which is passive closing buy orders rather than a large influx of new incremental funds entering the market. As a large number of short positions are cleared, the short squeeze dividend will quickly fade. Whether the subsequent market can sustain depends on spot funds taking over.
My personal view: there is still inertia for a short-term surge, but blind optimism is not advisable. The market has already entered an overbought zone, bullish sentiment is crowded, and there is heavy resistance from trapped positions at 73000‑75000. It is very likely to first consolidate and digest, and the probability of a direct, continuous sharp rise is low.
Two key observation indicators: first, whether spot ETFs can maintain continuous net inflows, which reflects the true attitude of institutions; second, whether the 70000‑71000 support range can hold. If it breaks down quickly, it indicates insufficient relay funds and a risk of concentrated profit-taking and pullback.
In practice: spot base positions can continue to be held to enjoy trend recovery dividends; contracts must strictly avoid chasing highs, and not be blinded by short-term sharp rises. It is better to wait for a pullback to confirm support before considering layout, as heavy positions at high levels have very low cost-effectiveness for speculative play.
No matter how good the positive narrative is, without real money funds taking over, pulse rallies are hard to sustain.我认为这波BTC拉升更多是短线逼空，而非趋势反转，因为成交量和稳定币流动性还没跟上。 8月19日OKX现货BTC/USDT冲上75000美元，24小时爆仓近30亿美元，看似凶猛。 但仔细看资金面——美国BTC和ETH现货ETF合计净流入7.06亿美元，其中BTC占5.17亿，ETH仅1.89亿，说明主力仍在观望，散户和杠杆盘在追高。 我上周在72000美元附近轻仓试多，设止损70500，结果当天就冲高回落，差点被扫损。 后来复盘发现，那波拉升伴随的是空头集中平仓，而非新增买盘持续涌入。 就像去年11月那波“假突破”，也是靠爆仓推动，最后回调超15%。 现在市场分歧很大：有人觉得ETF回流是信号，但我更信数据。 若后续三天日均成交量不能维持在200亿美元以上，且USDT市值不增长，那高位获利盘随时会砸盘。 建议别追高，等回踩72000-73000区间再考虑分批建仓。 记住：牛市里最亏钱的，往往是那些以为“这次不一样”的人。#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ These past couple of days, the market is most likely to create the illusion: ETH is being bought frantically by institutions—is the altcoin season just around the corner? On the contrary, I think: it's still early. I even believe that the current round of "altcoin rotation" is likely just an illusion in the first phase. Why? Let's look at ETH first. Institutional funds are indeed returning to ETH. On August 19, the single-day net inflow of US spot ETH ETFs reached $186.8 million; in recent trading days, ETH ETF funds have also shown a clear rebound. Even more outrageous is the company's financial situation. BitMine currently holds about 5.81 million ETH, accounting for roughly 4.8% of the total ETH supply, and is very close to its proposed 5% target. So now I agree that "institutions are starting to refocus on ETH." But here's the problem: just because ETH goes up doesn't mean altcoins will take off across the board immediately. This is the most common mistake many people make. Currently, the market is still very concentrated. BTC still holds nearly 60% of the market share. Currently, the total global crypto market capitalization is about $2.52 trillion, up more than 6% in the past 24 hours, but BTC's market share still stands at 59.7%. What does this indicate? This shows that although the funds have come in, But it hasn't truly and completely flowed from large coins to small ones. Now it's more like: BTC rises first. ETH relay. Then some large-cap knockoffs followed suit. Finally, retail investors saw the candlestick and started chasing. This is the current path for funding. The real knockoff seasonNot convinced, just not convinced
Only know how to stare at my position
Is that interesting?
50 $ETH short positions
Floating loss already over 20,000 U
I keep holding on
I just don't believe it
I want to see how long the dog whales can hold on
But I just calmed down and thought for a while
This time, it really can't be all blamed on the dog whales
The US Treasury suddenly doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases
The market immediately started trading on improved liquidity
Plus the White House released positive crypto regulatory news
Trump is pushing the Clarity Act again
Bitcoin directly surged to $70,000
Shorts across the market blew up tens of billions of dollars in one day
No wonder ETH followed all the way up
Seeing this, I was a bit silent too
No
Why do all the good news come out right after I open shorts?
What’s even more frustrating is
US spot ETH ETF inflows nearly $190 million in one day
This is the largest inflow since last October
So this time it’s really not a pump without volume
Spot funds are buying
Contract shorts are covering
Two forces pushing the price up together
But then I thought again
Treasury repurchases can only temporarily suppress yields
US bond yields have already rebounded afterward
How long this positive effect lasts is really uncertain
ETH has now surged near 2350
Daily chart is getting farther from the moving average
Could it really break through 2400 in one go?
No way
My liquidation price is at 2410
I’m watching 2380 now
If it can’t break through here
I still think it will retest 2300
If it really breaks out with volume and holds
Then I can’t just blindly hold on
Looking at $BEAT again
I don’t even know what to say
The market is rising like this
It still drops nearly 20% in one day
I originally thought the altcoin season was coming
$BEAT should at least follow along
21.25 million tokens unlocked in early August
Worth nearly $67.8 million at that time
Equivalent to 6.87% of circulating supply
This hasn’t been fully digested yet
On September 1, about 11.25 million tokens are waiting to be unlocked
No wonder every time it just rebounds a bit
It’s like someone keeps dumping from above
So don’t break 0.12 for now
When it stands back above 0.14
Then I’ll believe it’s not a pump and dump
$SNDK also makes me quite conflicted
It’s risen so much
My first reaction is bubble
Second reaction is to look for a short opportunity
But they just held an investor conference recently
Focusing on AI data centers and high-performance storage
Long-term growth expectations have been raised again
This wave isn’t purely emotional speculation
But at the 1600 dollar level
I definitely dare not chase
If it can’t break through 1631
I’ll keep watching for a retest at 1527
If it really breaks through
Then I have to admit funds are still betting on AI storage
As for BOME
This coin suddenly surged over 30% in one day
Trading volume expanded several times
When I first saw it, I really wanted to chase in
My hand almost clicked buy
Then I thought again
No, going in at this time is just carrying others’ bags
Currently no particularly strong project news
More like the market warming up
Plus Solana-related MEME sentiment exploding
The previously added tens of millions of dollars in DEX liquidity is also boosting trading
Watch if 0.001323 can break through first
If it breaks, it can keep surging
If not, it’s easy to quickly give back gains
After thinking it through
This ETH rise really has reasons
But good news can’t be repeated every day
I’m still not convinced
But I’m not going to prove myself by liquidation
If 2380 can’t hold
I’ll wait for it to fall back
If it really holds steady
I still have to control my position
Dog whales can keep changing the script
I can’t write myself out first
#BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX $OKB finally caught up, but it’s not the only one among the 6 coins with an upward trend; it’s just following the rally now.
On 8/21 early morning, it rose from 100.9 to 108, currently trading around 106–108, up about 6%. In the past few days, it was stuck between 98–104 and refused to follow the trend. Today, the market squeeze forced it up. The fundamentals of the OKX ecosystem (X Layer, burn deflation model, IPO expectations) remain intact, but this rally is driven by sentiment, not an independent market.
In comparison: $HYPE surged 27% due to Trump compliance, SOL rose 10%, BTC increased 4.4%, and OKB only +6%, ranking behind among the 6 coins. Previously, I said the "only coin with a trend to go long among the 6" was based on the confidence to catch the bottom when it lagged; now that it has caught up, the cost-performance ratio has actually decreased. Also, from 95 to 108, the short-term RSI has returned to the overbought zone (it reached 78 on 8/18).
Support is seen at 100–103: as long as it doesn’t break 100 and there’s no negative news from OKX, it will continue to test 110; however, 108–110 is a previous dense trading area with many trapped positions. Buying in now means profiting from the tail end of sentiment, not from a revaluation of the main uptrend.What really needs to be observed in this $BTC rally is not how much it has risen, but who will take over the baton after $73,000? Breaking through $73,000 is indeed just the first shot. After $73,000, the real core to watch for the relay is whether spot demand can take the baton from "short covering" and absorb the pressure from overbought conditions and profit-taking.
🚦 Why is the "relay" after $73,000 the core issue?
This surge largely benefited from a short squeeze; in the past 24 hours alone, about $431 million in short positions on $BTC were liquidated. But this force is one-time only. For the market to continue upward, it must find new funds (spot and $ETF capital) to sustain buying.
🔍 Three "relay signals" you need to watch closely
The relay is not yet complete, and signals are mixed:
· Relay party one: $ETF and institutional funds (promising but needs observation)
· Good news: Since August, net inflows into $BTC $ETF have been about $1.48 billion, with institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity recently injecting nearly $300 million in a single day. Wall Street giants like Jane Street also hold nearly $1 billion in $BTC $ETF assets.
· Bad news: Overall, the gap left by the former "largest buyers" has not been fully filled, and $ETF funds have not yet stabilized enough to dominate the market.
· Relay party two: Whales and on-chain demand (accumulating but needs time)
· Good news: Whales are "buying up," increasing holdings by about 43,000 $BTC over the past 60 days. CryptoQuant data also shows this is the first time since last October’s peak that both spot and perpetual contract demand have simultaneously turned positive.
· Bad news: This warming signal is still "moderate in scale," and analysts believe it will take at least a month of sustained activity to confirm a bull market return.
· Potential resistance: Profit-taking by short-term holders
· Recently, Bitcoin on Binance recorded the largest-ever profitable UTXO transfer. This is a clear profit-taking signal, indicating short-term holders who were previously underwater are now selling after breaking even. This supply is the first hurdle above $73,000 that spot demand needs to absorb.
💎 In summary
The key to this rally lies in whether $ETF and whale buying can continue and expand to absorb the loosened chips and profit-taking above. If subsequent spot buying can take over, the rally has room to continue; otherwise, if the relay falters, short-term overbought correction pressure will emerge.
Are you more focused on $ETF capital inflow data or on-chain whale position changes? #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？ Awake! Night session quick update:
$SPCX closed at 134, dipping to just over 130 at the lowest point, the rhythm is okay, short positions are still viable!
Storage has actually been holding up pretty well these past couple of days, $MU is currently at 980, $SNDK at 1600. I mentioned earlier that it’s unlikely to hit new lows directly. But how it moves still needs to be watched step by step.
For optics, $LITE and $AAOI have rebounded nicely, but note that these two stocks usually move very similarly. $AXTI hasn’t broken below 70 and is still consolidating. I personally bought in. $COHR dipped to 280; I think if it holds above 300, it can rally. You can start positioning now.
Also, I’ve said before $NOK is pure trash, buying this stock is basically wasting money, it moves slowly and the rebound strength is weak.
I also have $MRVL, it’s doing okay, currently at 250, I’ll hold on to it.#Fed July FOMC Minutes 9-3, Officials Still Divided on Rate Hikes The Fed's July FOMC minutes show a 9-3 vote, with internal disagreements on rate hikes still present
$BEAT has basically ended its rally; don't hold onto hopes for a rebound recovery.
The story of "the wolf is coming" won't play out a third time. I repeatedly advised shorting on rallies at the beginning of the month when the price was still around 4U, and I judged that the 0.15 support would be hard to hold. Those who listened have already made good profits.
I still maintain the view: not recommended to go long. There will be a large volume of token unlocks and selling pressure ahead, so please remain cautious.
$AEON has retraced about 10% from its high, but the overall trend has not deteriorated.
The holding volume remains high, indirectly indicating that the main players have not exited. My approach: the pullback is a buying window, and I keep a base position; I will not fully exit before it breaks above 0.12, as there is still room to rise.
LAB and BEAT are in a similar situation and are unlikely to strengthen again. The operational logic of these two tokens is very similar, suspected to be the same funding scheme. The previous rise was due to only 9% circulation, with the main players using low circulation to pump and dump; now circulation has reached 77%, making it very difficult for users trapped at high levels to break even.