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Bitcoin surged 15% in four days, and Ethereum was even more aggressive, shooting up 22%. Damn, the group chat went wild again, shouting loudly about a bull market comeback.
Technically, there's really no room for criticism; the daily MA200, RSI, and MACD all look good. The macro environment is strangely favorable too: inflation is down, ISM is up, and the Russell 2000 hit new highs. Short-term bullish, I agree.
But I just feel something's off.
In July and August 2022, it was exactly the same. A 40% rally with everyone shouting bull market, but then in November it dropped 22% in one week. The FTX crash was an excuse, but even before that, the confirmed reversal in Q4 was brutal and unchanged. In this space, when everyone is collectively bullish, it's often when the knives are being sharpened.
Right now, I only hold a position in $OKB. It's not that I don't like $BTC, but I'm afraid of being spun around by a fake breakout. 67K (the top of the August sideways box, now considered a retest level) is the key: if it holds above, this rally can keep going with the music and dance; if it breaks, no excuses, it's a false signal, and you need to run faster than anyone else.
The four-year cycle thing, Bitcoin has never broken it. Conclusion? Cautiously bullish. I also want it to fly straight to 1 million, but after several bull and bear cycles, impulsiveness basically equals suicide.
I'm lightly holding for now, waiting for stability before adding more. If you want to rush in, remember the 67K hurdle—if it breaks, don't be stubborn, don't say I didn't warn you.
(PS: The above is all my personal speculation and does not constitute investment advice)
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ This round of BTC, ETH, SOL collectively forced a violent short squeeze, with mainstream coins rising in turn and altcoins broadly increasing.
But $CORE, which focuses on the BTCFi Bitcoin ecosystem narrative, completely missed the rally and seriously lagged behind.
Clearly the sector that benefits most from the Bitcoin bull market, why doesn't it rise when the market comes?
It's not that the market hasn't arrived, but the chip distribution, model, ecosystem, competition, and capital logic are all constrained.
1. Extremely poor chip structure: trapped positions + continuous inflation, unable to rise and afraid to rise
The biggest fatal flaw of CORE is that selling pressure is always greater than buying pressure.
- Total supply 2.1 billion, currently only 60% circulating, the remaining shares continuously mined, team linear unlocking, inflation constantly outputting new chips.
- Historical high of 6.47 USD, down over 99%, with a massive amount of heavily trapped positions piled up above. Any slight rebound triggers mass unlocking and dumping, every rally is crushed back to the original state.
- Small market cap and low liquidity, large funds dare not enter: if they get in, they can't get out. Institutions and quant funds basically avoid it, no incremental funds to support.
2. Top-tier narrative, but on-chain data completely lags behind
CORE's story is very perfect: Bitcoin Layer 2, BTC staking, lending, liquid staking, SatPay payments, solid BTCFi underlying infrastructure.
But the market now doesn't speculate on expectations, only on actual implementation:
- On-chain native TVL is weak, most assets are cross-chain migrations, no real ecological sedimentation.
- Lacks phenomenally popular applications, user base, retention, and activity are all weak.
- Protocol buybacks just starting, volume too small, cannot offset unlocking selling pressure at all.
In short: the story is fully told, data hasn't caught up, sentiment is overextended, value vacuum.
3. Intense competition within the BTCFi sector, CORE is no longer the only choice
After BTC became the absolute main line this round, the sector is fully competitive.
Stacks, Babylon, Rootstock all divert funds:
- Stacks: native BTC staking, direct BTC rewards, highest recognition in the native Bitcoin community.
- Babylon: focuses on Bitcoin Restaking narrative, very strong capital preference.
- CORE's dual staking mechanism requires locking tokens to earn yields, less attractive to retail and native BTC users compared to competitors.
Sector dividends are divided, funds no longer cluster solely around CORE.
4. Bull market is not universal rise, but extreme siphoning
This rally is driven by policy + ETF + short liquidation forced short squeeze.
Incremental funds in the market are limited, prioritizing BTC, ETH, SOL with high consensus, high liquidity, and strongest certainty.
Coins with small narratives, weak ecosystems, and poor chips are directly drained by the market.
Bull markets also have an 80/20 split: the strong get stronger, the weak continue sideways.
When will CORE have a turnaround rally?
Only waiting for three signals, all indispensable:
1. Overall rotation and inflow in the BTCFi sector, collective sector activation;
2. Real explosive growth in TVL, protocol revenue, user data, buyback strength sufficient to offset selling pressure;
3. Fully digesting high-level trapped positions, unlocking selling pressure slows down.
Risk reminder
Sector logic is fine, but token model, chip structure, and ecosystem shortcomings are hard flaws.
Missing out in a bull market and underperforming the market is normal, do not heavily bet solely on narrative, wait for dual confirmation of data and capital before looking for opportunities.
$CORE $BTC $ETH#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
The earnings season continues to bring highlights. Recently, Xiaomi's full ecosystem performance for people, cars, and homes just concluded, and now POPMART's half-year report has officially been released. Next week, the market will await Nvidia's results to see if the AI sector can continue to burn money for expansion.
At first glance, POPMART's half-year report data looks decent, but a closer breakdown makes it hard to confidently take a bullish stance.
In the first half of the year, total revenue was ¥17.17 billion, up 23.8% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to the parent company only grew by 10.1%. Revenue is still pushing forward, but profitability is clearly lagging behind. Evaluating this company requires more than just focusing on blind box sales volume; profit margin levels, inventory turnover efficiency, and overseas market expansion effectiveness all need to be considered.
The IP landscape is undergoing a clear shift. The once extremely popular LABUBU has cooled off, while Star People has surged nearly sixfold year-on-year.
On the positive side, the company has not placed all its bets on a single hit product; six IPs have already surpassed ¥1 billion in revenue, proving the internal IP incubation system has solid capabilities. However, risks are also prominent, as revenue from the Asia-Pacific and Americas overseas segments has declined, and current growth is almost solely supported by the domestic market.
Star People taking over the traffic baton does not mean it can replicate the LABUBU miracle, nor will overseas business naturally return to a high-growth trajectory. $POPMART Political statements combined with the CFTC roadmap have raised compliance expectations for $HYPE, but the trading focus is shifting from risk appetite-driven to position battles based on the implementation of detailed rules.
Currently, the market has undergone continuous stimulation from political statements and regulatory roadmaps, and is re-evaluating the compliance space for on-chain derivatives protocols.
In terms of driving factors, the effectiveness of specific regulatory implementation clauses outweighs earlier political attention, while the short-term release of risk appetite depends on the speed of digesting high-leverage positions.
From the event risk transmission mechanism perspective, the CFTC's plan to study including unregistered exchanges under regulation and allowing compliant leveraged trading has increased market risk appetite in the short term; however, if the detailed rules lack progress, the high-level accumulated leveraged positions are prone to liquidation and drawdowns amid liquidity changes.
Upside scenario: If the CFTC further issues specific registration processes and margin trading rules for on-chain protocols and unregistered exchanges, the realization of compliance expectations will attract medium- to long-term capital to build positions, driving sustained risk appetite growth. The trigger for this scenario is the announcement of specific compliance details, and the invalidation signal is policy stagnation causing profit-taking exits.
Downside scenario: If regulators only maintain framework research without substantive clauses, the previously policy-driven high positions will face compression, and risk appetite will quickly cool down. The trigger for this scenario is no new rules implemented during the regulatory window, and the invalidation signal is an unexpected breakthrough in compliance pilot programs.
When compliance costs are too high or regulatory authority divisions conflict, the market's pricing logic for compliance premiums will become invalid.
The most important observation variable in the next 7 days is whether the CFTC will release specific registration and margin rules for unregistered exchanges and on-chain protocols.
#迈威尔获Google芯片协议，财报前AI订单受关注 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升In the past 24 hours, about $366 million worth of ETH short positions were liquidated.
This big bullish candle on ETH was driven both by capital inflow and obvious short squeezes. It's best to wait for the forced liquidation buying pressure to subside before building a position, and observe whether the spot market continues to support, rather than just looking at the one-day price increase. The market in the past two days superficially shows altcoins and DOGE both rising, but the core is still Bitcoin.
When BTC moves, the market's risk appetite returns. It's not just a simple rise in one candlestick; it's signaling to capital: mainstream assets have buyers, and shorts are starting to cover. So capital spills over from BTC to ETH, then spreads to more elastic coins, and DOGE naturally becomes the most sentiment-sensitive group.
DOGE has risen well this round, but I don't think it suddenly has a much stronger fundamental basis. It's more that the market has entered a phase willing to pay for high volatility, high sentiment, and high propagation. BTC stabilizes, and DOGE has room to perform; once BTC weakens, DOGE usually falls faster than the broader market.
So don't view DOGE's rise alone as a new cycle signal. It's more like a mirror of sentiment: when everyone starts chasing DOGE, it means the market is no longer satisfied with earning certainty but is seeking higher odds.
The market can be optimistic, but don't get carried away with the pace. What really matters to watch is whether Bitcoin can hold steady and whether capital continues to flow from BTC to a broader range of altcoins $BTC $DOGE
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)🚨 REMINDER: Prior $BTC cycles bottomed 364–406 days after the cycle high.
We’re only around day 318, with Bitcoin still down far less than at previous cycle bottoms.
If the 4-year cycle continues to rhyme, history suggests the final bottom could still be 7–13 weeks away.
With retail now flipping bullish after this pump, one more major flush could still be incoming.
$BTC Yesterday Trump specifically mentioned HYPE, and today the CFTC Chairman has really started to pave the way.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig recently announced the "New Frontier of Finance" roadmap, explicitly instructing staff to study: using existing authority to establish a new market structure for crypto assets, allowing existing institutions, and even currently unregistered crypto exchanges, the opportunity to be brought under CFTC regulation in the future, providing compliant leverage and margin trading.
What’s even more noteworthy is that the CFTC is preparing to communicate directly with on-chain finance protocol developers to study how these protocols can operate legally in the U.S.
I think this news is especially worth paying attention to for $HYPE.
The reason is simple: yesterday the market was trading on Trump’s statement that they are "studying how to make Hyperliquid legal and compliant in the U.S."; today it has progressed to the CFTC Chairman publicly giving regulatory implementation directions.
Put simply: yesterday was a political statement, today a regulatory implementation path is emerging.
Of course, this does not mean Hyperliquid has been approved to enter the U.S., nor does it guarantee that HYPE will continue to rise. But if the CFTC later announces specific registration, compliant trading, and on-chain protocol regulatory rules, HYPE’s narrative could shift from mere "policy hype" to genuine U.S. compliance expectations.
I’m not in a rush to chase daily price fluctuations now; the most important thing going forward is to watch whether the CFTC continues to provide specific rules.
$HYPE $BTC #$SPCX $ETH $SNDK have been holding for almost four months, and today I looked in the mirror and noticed another patch of hair missing. I'm not here to complain, but to clearly explain how this trade turned from a “buying the dip” into a “giving away money” situation, leaving a mark for myself.
First, $SPCX: The initial logic was simple—Elon Musk said rockets are great, space narrative + launch orders, so I thought a dip was just a pullback to buy more. But the daily chart formed a classic descending channel, with lower highs and lower lows all the way down. Every 4-hour rebound to the descending trendline + 20EMA got pushed down. The weekly chart looks more like a bearish continuation, with increasing trapped positions above, resistance near the previous high/neckline XX area. Unless it breaks through there, the bearish structure remains. Plus, with US Treasury yields repeatedly high, stocks relying on narratives to support valuation are the easiest to get valuation-killed.
$ETH: I was betting on rate cut expectations + upgrade rally, but the July FOMC minutes came out 9-3, showing officials still divided on rate hikes; the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repos, 30-year Treasury yields fell from highs, and risk assets got drained together. After ETH broke key moving averages on the daily, every rebound to previous low conversion points/midline XX met resistance. The 4-hour chart shows a weak consolidation structure; once support below breaks, leveraged positions are on liquidation countdown.
$SNDK: The storage price hike cycle isn’t over, but SanDisk is volatile at highs, valuation divergence intensifies. I chased the “breakout” after earnings, but it turned into a high-volume long upper shadow, daily bearish engulfing pattern, breaking previous highs then pulling back—according to the 2B rule, this is a false breakout/reversal signal. Resistance is right at the previous high’s huge volume candle area XX.
Bottom line, it’s not that I can’t read the structure, it’s that I don’t execute. I set stop losses but then cancel them, always thinking “just hold a bit longer and it’ll come back,” but days turn into weeks, weeks into months, almost four months. The first rule of trading: cut losses, let profits run. I did the exact opposite—held losses stubbornly, ran from profits at the slightest gain, even borrowed money and took loans to hold positions, with interest hurting more than losses.
Now my head hurts badly, I can’t sleep, and my hair is almost gone. It’s not that I don’t know my mistakes, it’s that I know but can’t fix them—that’s the most rookie mistake.
I’m not posting this to suggest anyone copy my trades, but to remind myself: if you can’t even hit your stop loss, don’t talk about having a plan. Don’t be like me. 📊 $HYPE Contract Liquidation Update (August 21)
Bears gradually dominate the market, nearly balanced at 12 hours, a second surge at 24 hours, with cumulative liquidations surpassing $8.37 million...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $332,300 $104,000 $321,900
4 hours $641,300 $229,000 $412,200
12 hours $2,584,200 $1,161,300 $1,422,900
24 hours $8,371,300 $2,354,000 $6,017,300
From the HYPE liquidation data: at 1 hour, bears crushed bulls with a ratio of 30.9 times, volume at $321,900, showing strong bear control; at 4 hours, bear momentum collapsed, bears were only 1.8 times the bulls, liquidation volume rose to $412,200, bear advantage sharply shrank, bulls and bears nearly balanced; at 12 hours, bear advantage almost disappeared, bears were only 1.2 times bulls, liquidation volume surged to $1,422,900, bulls and bears nearly tied; at 24 hours, bears surged again with $6,017,300 in liquidations versus bulls' $2,354,000, bears 2.6 times bulls, cumulative liquidations exceeded $8.37 million. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for only 30.9% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration—new liquidations in the last 12 hours reached $5,787,100, with bears regaining strength in the latter half of 24 hours to trigger a second surge. The bear crush ratio dropped from 30.9 times at 1 hour to 1.8 times at 4 hours, then 1.2 times at 12 hours, before rebounding to 2.6 times at 24 hours, forming a "V-shaped reversal" trajectory—bears regained power after nearly losing advantage, but the second surge was much weaker than the initial peak. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; although the direction returns to bearish, the strength is limited, so avoid blindly shorting.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 21
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: liquidity valve loosening, policy signal divergence, and consumer IP iteration—three forces resonating on the same trading day.
₿ BTC Breaks $72,000: Record Bear Squeeze, but "Fake Breakout" Debate Persists
On August 20, Bitcoin continued its rally, breaking $72,000 with an intraday high of $72,830, the highest since June. In the past 24 hours, approximately $2.75 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated, with Bitcoin accounting for about $1.7 billion—this is the largest full-market short squeeze recorded by CoinGlass since 2021. Total network liquidations reached $3.34 billion, with shorts accounting for $3 billion.
However, there is intense debate over the sustainability of the rally. Longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff called it a "fake breakout," attributing it to a one-time operation by the U.S. Treasury doubling long-term bond repurchases. Bulls argue that demand in spot and perpetual futures markets turned positive simultaneously for the first time since the October 2025 historical peak—if maintained for another month, it would justify the start of a new bull market. Spot ETFs attracted over $1 billion inflows from Monday to Wednesday, completely reversing last week's nearly $390 million outflow. Short covering accelerated the breakout, but whether Bitcoin can hold above $70,000 increasingly depends on sustained spot and ETF demand.
🏛️ Fed July Minutes: Hawkish Votes Outnumber, Market Prices Opposite
The Fed's July meeting minutes released on August 19 showed the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the number of officials supporting a rate hike far exceeded the three dissenters—the minutes revealed several participants favored a 25 basis point hike at this meeting; many believed further tightening might be necessary if inflation does not decline.
Yet, the market is pricing in a rate cut. After the minutes, the market assigned an 81.2% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September. The minutes mentioned no support for rate cuts—the more hawkish the minutes, the more dovish the market, because the market prices not "who dissented," but the fact that "the economy is slowing."
🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU Slows, Star People Surges 580% to Take Over
On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 half-year report: revenue of 17.17 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year; adjusted net profit of 5.16 billion yuan. Revenue in China surged 47.3% year-on-year to 12.2 billion yuan.
The IP landscape is undergoing drastic restructuring. THE MONSTERS series, featuring LABUBU, generated 4.45 billion yuan, still the top, but down 7.5% year-on-year, with revenue share dropping from 34.7% to 26%. The new IP "Star People" earned 2.65 billion yuan, soaring 580.6% year-on-year, becoming the second largest IP. LABUBU slows down, Star People takes over—Pop Mart's IP lifecycle management is facing its toughest test. Plush product line has become the largest growth engine, with revenue up 60% year-on-year to 9.82 billion yuan, accounting for 57.2% of total revenue. The board announced a share repurchase plan of 2 to 5 billion yuan, the company's first such plan.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin broke $72,000 with a record $2.75 billion short squeeze, but the "fake breakout" debate remains—the key is whether spot buying can continue; HYPE contract market bear crush ratio dropped from 30.9 times to near parity at 1.2 times before rebounding to 2.6 times, completing a full V-shaped reversal, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $8.37 million, bears surged again but with less intensity than the peak; the more hawkish the Fed minutes, the more dovish the market, as economic slowdown signals outweigh inflation concerns; Pop Mart's LABUBU slows while Star People surges 580%, the IP landscape is undergoing a brutal old-to-new transition. When liquidity, policy, and consumption forces resonate simultaneously—the market is aggressively repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ BTC has stabilized above $72,000, maintaining a strong bullish structure, but short-term risks of a pullback after a surge should be watched. ETH is relatively weak, with $2,300 as the key dividing line between bulls and bears; a decisive break below this level would increase correction pressure. In terms of operations, it is recommended to lightly buy BTC on dips as long as it does not break below $71,000, but be cautious when chasing highs; for ETH, monitor the $2,300 support closely—if broken, reduce positions to avoid risk, with overall emphasis on controlling position size. $CORE has been one of the most puzzling laggards in the current bull run. While BTC, ETH, and SOL have all posted strong gains, often squeezing shorts aggressively, CORE—despite its BitcoinFi narrative—has barely moved. The market is telling a Bitcoin infrastructure story, yet the token price isn’t following. Here’s a breakdown of the real friction points holding it back. 🔍 1. Supply Overhang: The Elephant in the Room CORE’s total supply is 2.1 billion, with only about 60% currently in circulatThe order book density for PRL is currently very abnormal. Above 0.2620, there are continuous triple-digit sell orders pressing down, but every time it approaches 0.2480, some funds quickly eat up the first and second sell orders, then the orders are withdrawn again, as if they don't want to leave too many traces at this position. On-chain tracking shows that in the last two hours, a newly created wallet withdrew about 3.8 million PRL from the exchange in three separate transactions, with zero outflow after transfer. The spot net outflow has not been replenished, effectively locking up the available sellable chips temporarily. Such addresses often isolate inventory in preparation for the next upward move. I just rode my bike to an old building without an elevator; after delivering orders on the sixth floor, my legs were a bit shaky, but my eyes were still fixed on the 15-minute chart without looking away.
From the naked K-line perspective, the 4-hour level formed a long lower shadow near 0.2310, with rebounds testing 0.2620 twice but failing to break through the body, indicating heavy short stop-loss pressure above and unwillingness of buyers below to chase prices. The long-short ratio fluctuates repeatedly at low levels, contract positions are increasing but prices are not falling, which is characteristic of accumulation.
In terms of operation, the current price of 0.2558 is not suitable for direct chasing. Light long positions can be taken on pullbacks between 0.2490 and 0.2510, with a stop loss at 0.2440, first take profit at 0.2610, and second take profit at 0.2705. If it directly breaks above 0.2620 and the 15-minute candle closes without falling back, you can chase long with a stop loss at 0.2555 and a target of 0.2740. Do not participate in short positions.
$PRL
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧
@OKX星球 📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (August 21)
Shorts dominate the short term, longs crushed in the long term but with very small volume, typical retail trading in a low liquidity asset...
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $56.42 $0 $56.42
4 hours $6,275.66 $0 $6,275.66
12 hours $23,500 $765.49 $22,700
24 hours $23,600 $765.49 $22,900
From the CORE liquidation data: shorts monopolize the entire 1-hour period, with zero long liquidations and a volume of only $56, a tentative short squeeze; at 4 hours the direction is confirmed, shorts continue to dominate with volume slightly rising to $6,300, shorts maintain control but absolute volume remains very low; at 12 hours shorts crush longs, shorts are 29.6 times the longs, volume jumps to $22,700, shorts control the market in a crushing manner but total volume is still very small; at 24 hours shorts and longs are basically balanced, shorts liquidated $22,900 vs longs $765.49, shorts are 29.9 times longs, cumulative liquidation only $23,600. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 99.6% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely high concentration—liquidations are almost entirely within 12 hours, with only about $100 increase in the following 12 hours, the market is almost stagnant. The short crushing ratio slightly rises from 29.6 times at 12 hours to 29.9 times at 24 hours, momentum basically stable, but absolute volume is extremely small (less than $30,000 in 24 hours), typical retail trading in a low liquidity asset, no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x, this asset has very poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading reference.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 21
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: liquidity valve loosening, policy signal divergence, consumer IP iteration—three forces resonating on the same trading day.
₿ BTC breaks through $72,000: record short squeeze, but "false breakout" controversy remains
On August 20, Bitcoin continued its rally breaking $72,000, reaching an intraday high of $72,830, the highest since June. In the past 24 hours, approximately $2.75 billion in short positions across the crypto market were liquidated, with Bitcoin accounting for about $1.7 billion—this is the largest full-market short squeeze recorded by CoinGlass since 2021. Total network liquidations reached $3.34 billion, with shorts accounting for $3 billion.
However, there is fierce disagreement on the sustainability of the rally. Longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff called it a "false breakout," attributing it to a one-time doubling of long-term Treasury repo operations by the U.S. Treasury. Bulls argue that spot and perpetual futures demand have simultaneously turned positive for the first time since the October 2025 historical peak—if this can be maintained for another month, there is reason to believe a new bull market has begun. Spot ETFs attracted over $1 billion inflows from Monday to Wednesday, completely reversing last week's nearly $390 million outflow. Short covering accelerated the breakout, but whether Bitcoin can hold above $70,000 increasingly depends on the sustainability of spot and ETF demand.
🏛️ Fed July Minutes: Hawkish votes far exceed dissenters, but market prices the opposite
The Fed's July meeting minutes released on August 19 showed the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%. However, the number of participants supporting a rate hike far exceeded the three official dissenters—the minutes revealed several attendees supported a 25 basis point hike at this meeting; many believed further tightening might be necessary if inflation does not decline.
Yet the market is pricing in a rate cut. After the minutes, the market assigned an 81.2% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September. The minutes did not mention any support for rate cuts—the more hawkish the minutes, the more dovish the market, because the market prices not "who voted no," but the fact that "the economy is slowing."
🎨 Pop Mart Half-Year Report: LABUBU slows, Star People surges 580% to take over
On August 20, Pop Mart released its 2026 half-year report: revenue of 17.17 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year; adjusted net profit of 5.16 billion yuan. Revenue in China surged 47.3% year-on-year to 12.2 billion yuan.
The IP landscape is undergoing drastic restructuring. THE MONSTERS series featuring LABUBU generated 4.45 billion yuan, still the top, but down 7.5% year-on-year, with revenue share dropping from 34.7% to 26%. New IP "Star People" generated 2.65 billion yuan, soaring 580.6% year-on-year, becoming the second largest IP. LABUBU slows, Star People takes over—Pop Mart's IP lifecycle management is facing its toughest test. Plush product line has become the largest growth engine, revenue up 60% year-on-year to 9.82 billion yuan, accounting for 57.2% of total revenue. The board announced a share repurchase plan of 2 to 5 billion yuan, the company's first repurchase plan announcement.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: Bitcoin broke through $72,000 with a record $2.75 billion short squeeze, but the "false breakout" controversy remains—the key is whether spot buying can continue; CORE contract market liquidations totaled less than $24,000 all day, almost entirely within 12 hours, a low liquidity asset with invalid price action, no directional reference value; the more hawkish the Fed minutes, the more dovish the market, as economic slowdown signals outweigh inflation concerns; Pop Mart's LABUBU slows while Star People surges 580%, the IP landscape is undergoing a brutal old-new transition. When liquidity, policy, and consumption forces resonate simultaneously—the market is aggressively repricing the second half of 2026. #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ Wall Street's old money has opened the gates, and your ETF may soon have "on-chain stuff" mixed in. On August 21, 2026, Franklin Templeton received U.S. regulatory approval, planning to stuff tokenized assets into traditional ETFs and mutual funds. [Veteran's Ramblings] This matter is far more explosive than you imagine. Don't think this is another shady project team celebrating itself—this is an asset management giant managing over $1.5 trillion in assets, planting a blockchain flag at the heart of traditional finance. Many people have not yet realized what this means. This means that if you buy a regular U.S. stock ETF or a bond mutual fund in the future, your money may unknowingly be indirectly holding tokenized assets on-chain. You don't need to register a crypto exchange, don't need to memorize mnemonic phrases, and you don't even know what DeFi is. But your pension account and your retirement financial management are already tied to blockchain. Wall Street is using the gentlest and most covert methods to enlighten ordinary people about crypto. Liquidity is what Wall Street truly wants. Previously, tokenized assets mostly thrived within the crypto community, with poor liquidity and hard to find trading partners. Now, Franklin Templeton has directly pulled them into the holdings pool of traditional funds, even allowing them as collateral. This effectively opens a huge liquidity valve for these on-chain assets. Imagine a tokenized U.S. Treasury, which used to be only available on a few decentralized exchanges, can now become the underlying asset for multi-billion dollar ETFs—behind it allFranklin Templeton Obtains Regulatory Approval: Traditional Funds Quietly Install Crypto Engines On August 21, it was reported that Franklin Templeton obtained U.S. regulatory approval, planning to incorporate tokenized assets into traditional fund products. [Veteran's Rambling] This matter is much more explosive than it appears on the surface. Many people swipe away after reading the news, thinking it's just an old asset management hype with some blockchain hype. Wrong. Completely wrong. The crypto world you think of is nothing like the crypto world seen by Wall Street money. Franklin Templeton's move essentially involves one thing: turning crypto from a retail casino into an institutional pipeline. They want to stuff tokenized money market funds into ETFs and mutual funds, treating them as holdings and collateral. What does this mean? It means that an elderly man buying an S&P 500 ETF doesn't understand what a private key or gas fee is, but the underlying assets of his fund are already running on the blockchain. Money has always been smart. It doesn't care whether you accept it or not; it will only find the most efficient path on its own. This is true mass adoption. It's not that the XRP you keep shouting about will be used by banks, nor that SOL will enter ETFs. These traditional financial giants treat crypto like a pipe, channeling water into their own pool. They don't buy BTC or ETH; they buy tokenized US Treasuries and tokenized money market funds. These items only have an annualized rate of about 5%, but their advantage lies in compliance and the ability to settle 24×7 hours. HuaThe 50-day moving average is chasing the 200-day moving average—is this Bitcoin's "golden cross" a real turning point or a bullish trap? On August 21, 2026, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average reached around $63,976, and the 200-day moving average stopped at around $69,005. As these two lines drew closer, the market was betting on a golden cross. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't be fooled by the words 'Golden Cross.' This is essentially a lagging indicator; the price has already gone up before confirming it. If you wait until you see a crossover to chase it, that early piece of the prime has already been gnawed up. The real highlight isn't the crossover itself, but the three things. First, since October 2025, Bitcoin has been hovering below the 200-day moving average, when the price was still around $110,000. Now, over the past half year, the price once fell above $71,000 before rebounding, and in the past week, it has risen more than 12%, climbing back above the 200-day moving average. From $63,976 to $69,005, the 50-day moving average needs to keep rising for the two lines to intersect. This 200-day moving average marks the dividing line between bulls and bears. Second, light crossovers are not enough; they must "stand firm." What does it mean to stand firm? It's not that it comes back with a single stab, but that it can't be broken by stepping on it. Based on the current market, $70,250 is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which is the first support to watch after a breakout. Only if it can hold 70,250 can buying truly take over; If it can't be held, this is a technical rebound driven by short closing — because in the past 24 hours, $517.19 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated, and these buying orders are oneBroadcom is implementing leveraged financing through an SPV structure, significantly increasing the credit and event risk exposure across the AI infrastructure chain. The proposed debt portfolio, aiming to raise up to $100 billion, includes subordinated debt and senior secured tranches, with Broadcom bearing part of the guarantee responsibility. If the massive debt expansion pushes up market long-term interest rate expectations, the AI sector's high valuation positions will face risk appetite contraction and repricing pressure. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the actual issuance scale and subscription multiples of the SPV's senior secured tranches experience significant shrinkage.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧 #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升The 50-day moving average is chasing the 200-day moving average. Is this BTC golden cross a true bullish comeback, or is it a trap for bullish inducements? On August 21, 2026, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average reached $63,976, and the 200-day moving average stopped at $69,005. The gap between the two narrowed, and if a golden cross is confirmed, the market may begin a new upward cycle. It has gone up. It really went up. Over the past week, BTC has rebounded over 12%, with the price climbing back above $71,000. In the early hours of August 21, it reached $72,342.9, a single-day increase of 5.64%. Don't rush to go all in. This 50-day moving average is still hovering below the 200-day line—a so-called golden cross, with the Eight Characters still barely complete. Since October 2025, BTC has been held below the 200-day moving average, when the price was still around $110,000. Ten months. After being suppressed by a single line for a full ten months, just as the market is starting to recover, someone is already calling for the bull market to return. [Veteran's Rambling] First, pour cold water on the situation: the golden cross is essentially a lagging indicator. It is not a prophet, but a bookkeeper. The price rose first, and only then did the 50-day moving average catch up. By the time it really crossed with the 200-day moving average, the early gains would have been eaten up by sharp-eyed capital. You see the signal rushing in, and you might end up eating at the end. Historically, BTC has indeed formed golden crosses in February 2023, October 2023, October 2024, and April 2025, each time followed by a rise. Sounds beautiful. But after that golden cross in February 2020, BTCWhen Waymo kicked NVIDIA out of the car, the crypto community finally understood what "computing power sovereignty" means. On August 20, Alphabet's Waymo officially announced mass production of its self-developed ASIC chips, built on TSMC's 5nm process with computing power exceeding 1000 TOPS, now installed in the new generation Robotaxi, officially ending reliance on third-party chips like NVIDIA and AMD. [Veteran's Ramblings] On the surface, this news seems like a family matter in the autonomous driving community. Looking deeper, the signal was exploding. What does 1000 TOPS mean? This is comparable to NVIDIA's latest generation of autonomous driving systems. But the real toughness isn't the computing power numbers, but Waymo's chosen approach—designing its own chips, its own sensors, and running its own neural networks. Hold the lifeline in your own hands. Those in autonomous driving have started developing chips. Google, the search company, has long developed its own TPU. Who will be next? For crypto players, the logic behind this is very clear. The first level: computing power is power. Why does Waymo want to develop its own products? Because AI computing power costs are spiraling out of control, Google's entire group is advancing its self-developed chip strategy to control infrastructure expenses. As centralized giants pursue computing power autonomy, the narrative value of decentralized computing networks is quietly being revalued. DePIN projects like Render Network and Akash Network follow the logic that "computing power shouldn't be choked by a few cloud providers." In the first quarter of 2026, the$TRUMP SHORT 🔴
Entry: 1.658–1.668
SL: 1.680
TP1: 1.635
TP2: 1.620
TP3: 1.605
TRUMP remains below MA5/10/20 after a sharp rejection.
1.675 is the key level that would weaken this short idea.
#BTCBreaks72K #FOMC9To3Split #PopMartEarningsWatch $4 billion buyback ignited on September 9—is Bitcoin's $72,000 short squeeze just a rehearsal? On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would raise the liquidity-backed repurchase cap for long-term nominal Treasury bonds of 10-20 years and 20-30 years from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and lasting until November 4. Upon hearing this, the 30-year Treasury yield plunged from around 5.34% to 5.19%, Bitcoin surged from $64,100 to $72,300, with over $3.2 billion liquidated in 24 hours, including $3.001 billion in short liquidations. [Veteran's Rambling] First, pour cold water on the situation. This time the Treasury's buyback is not about the Fed printing money, nor is it QE. It is the Ministry of Finance using the money in its books to buy back and cancel those "old, untraded" old bonds, essentially a debt management operation of "selling short and buying long." In the $31.5 trillion U.S. Treasury market, the seven operations from September 9 to November 4 only generated $14 billion in increments—just a drop in the bucket. But the market never looks at volume, only on signals. What are the signals? It was the U.S. government that clearly told the world: the 5.34% rate for the 30-year term is a red line and long-term rates can no longer skyrocket. Once this red line is drawn, term premiums are compressed, the dollar weakens, and risk appetite returns—Bitcoin's biggest enemy has never been regulation, but a 5% risk-free return. When the "magnet for easy profits" of U.S. Treasuries weakens, funds start shifting toward risk assets. This was the single-day increase of 11.7% for Bitcoin and Ethereum for Ethereum on August 20$86.2 billion is just the ticket: Anthropic rushes for IPO—how many episodes has the crypto market's "AI gold rush" just begun? On August 21, 2026, Cailian Press reported that Anthropic expects its IPO size to at least match the record set by SpaceX. SpaceX initially raised $75 billion, including an over-allotment of $86.2 billion, and Anthropic is preparing to submit its listing documents as early as the end of this month. [Veteran's Rambling] This account needs to be examined separately. When SpaceX went public in June this year, it was valued at $1.77 trillion, raising $75 billion, and with an over-allotment of $86.2 billion. Anthropic's desire to "surpass" actually has two dimensions—valuation — it is very likely to win (market expects $2 trillion or even $3 trillion), but fundraising depends on the issuance ratio. So when the media calls it "the largest IPO in history," it's half truth, half narrative. But what does this mean for crypto players? Let me explain three aspects. First layer: The imaginative space overflowing with fluidity. Anthropic's listing is like a shot in the arm for global capital—artificial intelligence is currently the only proven track of "revenue surge." Anthropic's Q2 revenue exceeded $11.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 14 times, with an annualized revenue operating rate surpassing $65 billion. This level of growth narrative will drive institutional allocation to AI-related assets, and some funds will inevitably spill over into the crypto market's artificial intelligenceLast night, when the Nasdaq fell 1% and Walmart crashed 9.2%, why did Bitcoin instead surge to 72,000? On August 21, 2026, the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower: the Nasdaq fell 1%, the Dow fell 1.31%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.86%, all seven tech giants were in the green, and Walmart plunged 9.2% in a single day, marking its largest drop since May 2022. Yet on the same night, memory chips and optical communications bucked the trend and surged, with Bitcoin surging to the $72,000 mark and up more than 6% in the past 24 hours. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't be fooled by the superficial narrative of "US stocks fall, crypto rises." The real signal from this night was that capital was making extremely picky choices. Just open it up and you'll understand. Behind the Nasdaq's 1% drop was the 10-year Treasury yield rebounding over 5 basis points to 4.704%, and the 30-year yield climbing over 5 basis points to 5.248%—long-term interest rates are used to hold long-duration assets tight. Apple fell 1.75%, Microsoft fell 0.43%, Google dropped 1.02%. These companies, which rely on discounted future cash flows, were the first to be hit hard. Walmart's drop was even steeper by 9.2%, and same-store sales in the US rarely missed expectations, showing consumer concerns. But then something strange happened. SK Hynix rose over 4%, Micron rose 3.97%, SanDisk gained 2.02%; Applied Optoelectronics rose over 5%, and Lumentum gained 6.24%. While the seven giants are falling, AI hardware infrastructure is rising. The money hasn't left; the money is changing seats. crThe Nasdaq fell 1%, so why did Bitcoin dare to rise 4.40%? Veterans see something different. On August 21, 2026, the three major US stock indices closed lower: the Nasdaq down 1%, the Dow down 1.31%, the S&P 500 down 0.86%, and all seven tech giants were caught in the move. But on the same night, Bitcoin rose 4.40% to $72,386, Ethereum rose 3.06% to $2,321.65, and the storage and optical communications sectors bucked the trend strongly—SK Hynix rose over 4%, Micron Technology gained over 3%, and Lumentum gained over 6%. [Veteran's Ramblings] Don't be fooled by the phrase "Nasdaq down 1%." The signals hidden on the market that night were far more dangerous than on the surface. Let's start with the culprit. The U.S. Treasury had just announced the day before that it would at least double the repurchase of 10-, 20-, and 30-year Treasury bonds, hoping to suppress long-term yields. However, the good times didn't last: the 10-year yield rebounded more than 5 basis points to 4.704% in a single day, and the 30-year yield fell back to 5.248%. With long-term interest rates soaring, the longest-duration tech stocks were hit first—Apple fell 1.75%, Amazon dropped 2.16%, and Tesla dropped 1.71%. Not a single one of the Seven Giants survived. Walmart is even more ruthless. It fell 9.2%, marking the largest single-day drop since May 2022. This retail giant is the barometer of American consumption, with same-store sales rarely falling short of expectations, essentially telling the market that residents' wallets are empty. Walmart's crash dragged the Dow down by 703.84 points. It is truly strangeBTC broke through 72000, but there is a hidden risk that cannot be ignored
$BTC broke through $72000 in the early morning, hitting a new high in over three months. It rose nearly 4% in 24 hours. However, at the same time, the July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve showed — 9 votes in favor of keeping rates unchanged, 3 votes supporting a rate hike. Bulls are celebrating, hawks are lurking.
Bullish logic: triple drivers are still in effect
The U.S. Treasury expanded the scope of long-term Treasury repurchase operations to include 10- to 30-year maturities, effective September 9. Bond yields fell, the dollar weakened, benefiting BTC.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $517 million on Wednesday, the strongest since May 4. BlackRock's IBIT contributed $285 million leading the charge. Over the past 60 days, whales have increased net holdings by about 43,000 BTC.
Bearish risk: the minutes did not mention rate cuts
The minutes showed 3 votes supporting a 25 basis point hike, and several participants believed that if inflation does not improve, further tightening would be necessary. Chair Powell proposed reducing the number of annual rate meetings from 8 to 6 and suggested updating the policy framework — including announcing rate decisions in advance.
Last week, initial jobless claims were 229,000, slightly above expectations, and continuing claims were 1.87 million, the highest since December 2024. Employment is cooling, inflation remains above 3%.
ETFs are buying, whales are buying, but the Fed has not eased. Be cautious chasing longs above 72000.
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在 As a top architectural designer, when I look at Pop Mart's financial report, it's like reviewing a freshly delivered foundation settlement observation record at a construction site early in the morning.
Stop looking at that shiny IP curtain wall; the foundation has already emitted ominous groans. The "Trendy Toy Tower" completed in the first half of the year shows a 23.8% growth on paper, but the "net profit load-bearing wall" that truly determines the building's lifespan only increased by 10.1%. This is a dangerous scissors gap—the higher the floors are stacked, the weaker the concrete grade becomes. The contractor explains this as a necessary investment during the expansion phase, but what I see is precisely a red alert in the structural system: while the "Main Building in Mainland China" topped out first at a rate of 47.3%, the "Overseas Podium Buildings" in Asia-Pacific and the Americas are contracting, at -9.7% and -16.5% respectively. This is not a simple style shift; it is an overall instability in the load-bearing system. The most tragic collapses in architectural history are often not due to height but due to a shifted center of gravity.
LABUBU, once the "core steel column," has seen its compressive strength drop by 7.5%, and new IPs like Twinkle Twinkle, despite nearly sixfold growth, are, in my eyes, just glass curtain walls attached to the facade—dazzling to look at but unable to bear any wind load or seismic force. True architects know that structures not tested through a full lifecycle and extreme conditions can only be considered "temporary reinforcements." You cannot so densely replace load-bearing components on a building that has not yet topped out. This is no longer a matter of "designing while building"; it is a challenge to the laws of physics. Those new IPs packaged as "second growth points" do not even meet the load-bearing standards of temporary fire escape stairs in my view.
Looking at the financial ratios: inventory turnover is slowing, meaning materials are piling up in warehouses, and funds are frozen in concrete. This is a sharp increase in energy consumption, a sign of project management losing control, a classic case of a "half-finished project." The capital market's old supervisor holding the XGOOGL ruler has long captured subtle torsional vibrations of the building with his dynamic tester—this building's foundation is undergoing plastic hinge transformation. When the independent foundation of the overseas market starts to lift, the settlement cracks of the entire building become irreparable, and those shiny marketing centers on the exterior walls have lost the logic to continue construction.
When multiple IP schedules seem lively, it's actually because no one can find the "main building." A building can have rich language, but if the load transfer path is unclear, it cannot even resist wind vibrations. When the main entrance column (LABUBU) begins to peel, and other columns have not passed the 28-day standard curing period, the building has already lost the premise for adding more floors. The construction crew is busy, the tower cranes are turning, and it looks prosperous, but the core secret of the site is: the blueprints can no longer be changed. This covert inspection by market funds sees insufficient mortar fullness, misaligned rebar joints, and loose formwork support systems.
I don't need to wait for the final completion acceptance report. Because the moment the first pile was driven, the verticality had already deviated beyond the allowed tolerance. All the subsequent fancy interior decoration and curtain walls only add overturning moments to this tilt.
The signature line on the inspector's report should only have two words: Stop Work. #PopMartEarningsWatch BTC suddenly surged back to $70,000, did Trump give it another push?
This wave of Bitcoin suddenly rushing from over $60,000 all the way back to $70,000 is definitely not just a simple technical rebound.
On August 19, Trump met with several crypto industry executives at the White House and publicly urged Congress to quickly advance the CLARITY Act.
The signal is very clear: the U.S. is not trying to drive crypto out, but is rushing to establish a regulatory framework.
But I think the real ignition was the liquidity expectation.
The U.S. Treasury expanded long-term Treasury repurchases, Treasury yields fell, and the market's liquidity expectations suddenly eased. At the same time, BTC broke through a key level, shorts began to liquidate continuously, and ETF funds flowed back in.
Policy expectations + improved liquidity + short squeeze + ETF funds, a few sparks collided, making it hard for BTC not to rally.
But here I still want to remind you:
$70,000 is not the end, nor is it a reason to blindly chase the rally.
What really matters is whether BTC can hold above $70,000 and turn this level from resistance into support.
If it can hold, the story ahead may just be beginning.
If it can't hold, this might just be a beautiful "bull trap."
Personally, I’m more focused on the trading volume and capital flow in the next few days.
Breaking through is not hard; holding the ground is the real skill.The U.S. pressure on Iran's economy is entering the execution prelude, with China directly named. Behind the threat of secondary tariff sanctions is Trump's desire to coerce China into helping mediate with Iran.
According to Bassett's statement, the "toughest sanctions in history" on Iran will have specific measures announced next Monday. This is clearly combined with a maritime blockade to further economically isolate Iran, aiming to pressure the Iranian regime from within.
On the other hand, Bassett directly named China, noting that half of China's energy comes from the Gulf, and China also purchases a large amount of maritime oil from Iran.
When asked whether the U.S. would target China due to China-Iran trade relations, Bassett did not deny it, which effectively increases the possibility of secondary trade sanctions on Iranian oil.
Of course, with less than a month before the Chinese leader's visit to the U.S., I don't quite believe the U.S. will directly impose secondary sanctions on Chinese Iranian oil. Bassett's attitude makes me feel more that he wants to coerce China into helping the U.S. mediate the U.S.-Iran issue. #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 🚨 After expectations for crypto regulation resurfaced, the market did not collapse completely, but funds had already begun actively hedging risks. The most obvious change is that funds no longer blindly speculate on all small-cap coins, but instead return to mainstream assets with stronger liquidity such as BTC, ETH, and SOL. 🔍 Regulatory risk does not evenly affect all currencies. As the largest and most liquid crypto asset, BTC has relatively stronger risk resistance. The ones truly under pressure are small-cap coins, meme tokens, platform-type coins, and those projects supported by hype and stories. Once funds withdraw from these coins, liquidity quickly deteriorates, and the rebound weakens. 📉 From the trading volume structure, the expansion of mainstream coin turnover indicates the market is still rebounding, but the capital style has changed. In the past, it was "the most popular and the fastest riser," but now it's "the most important thing to survive." If this shift in risk appetite continues, there will be a clear polarization: mainstream coins will hold firm, while weak coins will continue to decline. 💣 The risk of liquidation is mainly concentrated among users who use high leverage to chase high-priced small-cap coins. Many people only see short-term gains but fail to notice that once the hype fades, the drawdowns can be very steep. Especially for stocks with short-term gains exceeding 30% or 40%, once capital takes profits, it's easy to rise from where it rose and then fall back down. Personal judgment and analysis: Regulation won't immediately dump the market, but it will accelerate market segmentation. Not all coins will rise later; funds will lean more toward mainstream, liquid, and clearly structured stocks. Even if the weak mountain stronghold rebelled,ETH has shifted from "following the rise" to "actively strengthening," but around $2360 it has entered a true divergence zone.
ETH's movement in the past two days has been noticeably more aggressive than in the previous phase.
From the chart, the price quickly surged from around $1905 to $2361, with almost no deep pullbacks in between. What is truly noteworthy is not just how much it has risen, but that after breaking through $2200, ETH did not immediately fall back but continued to oscillate at a high level. This indicates that this rally is not just a passive catch-up after BTC's rise.
On the macro level, market risk appetite is improving. The U.S. Treasury's expansion of bond repurchase operations has driven down long-term yields, while expectations for increased crypto regulation have heated up, leading to a clear revaluation of risk assets in both BTC and ETH. In the latest market, ETH's single-day gain once exceeded 2%, reaching the highest level since May. (MarketWatch)
However, ETH has a variable different from BTC: capital is beginning to reassess ETH's relative value.
In July, the U.S. spot ETH ETF saw net inflows of about $365 million, significantly better than the previous continuous outflows, and the ETH/BTC ratio also showed recovery during the same period. In other words, the market had been trading on "BTC outperforming ETH," but now some capital is starting to reposition for ETH's relative returns. (Blockport)
Looking at the 15-minute structure.
The current price is about $2318, with the previous high at $2361 forming a very clear short-term resistance. The Bollinger middle band is near $2328, and MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all compressed in the $2320–$2330 range, indicating that short-term long and short costs are rapidly converging.
The KDJ indicator has also fallen from a high level to the mid-low area.
This implies a very important change:
Previously, the market was trading the "rise," but now it is trading "whether the rise can be confirmed."
I will focus on two key levels going forward.
If ETH can firmly hold between $2340–$2360 with volume expanding simultaneously, this rally could evolve from a rapid recovery into a trend breakout, and the market would start trading the space above $2400 again.
But if $2360 cannot be broken for a sustained period and the price falls back below $2300, this could easily become a high-level chip exchange, with the short term possibly seeking support near $2250 or even $2200.
Therefore, I do not currently consider ETH weak.
On the contrary, it has formed a very clear strong structure.
However, after rising from $1900 to $2360, the trading logic can no longer remain at "looking for a rebound at a low level" but should shift to another question:
Is this rally merely correcting a previous severe undervaluation, or has it already prematurely priced in the liquidity expectations for the next phase?
These two answers lead to completely different prospects for ETH's future space.
What I want to see more is: if BTC holds around $73,000, can ETH break through $2360 on its own?
If it can, that would be a true sign of ETH strength.
:::$ETH What really needs to be observed in this BTC rally is not how much it has risen, but who will take over after $73,000
BTC rapidly surged from around $64,000 in the past two days, reaching a high of $73,070. Looking only at the 15-minute level, this is a very strong trending market, but the market has now moved from the "breakout phase" into the more critical "high-level confirmation phase."
The driving force behind this rally is actually more than one factor.
On one hand, the U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term bond repurchases, causing long-term yields to fall and the dollar to weaken, improving liquidity expectations and directly boosting the valuation of highly elastic assets like BTC; on the other hand, renewed expectations of U.S. crypto regulation have further improved market risk appetite. More importantly, this rally was accompanied by large-scale short covering, with BTC showing a typical short squeeze acceleration after breaking through $70,000. (Reuters)
But I believe what really deserves attention is this: the short squeeze is responsible for pushing the price up, but spot funds determine whether the price can stay here.
Positive signals have already appeared on the funding side. The U.S. spot BTC ETF has recently returned to a clear net inflow, with a single-day net inflow of about $517 million on August 19, one of the strongest capital inflows in months. (TradingView)
Back to the chart.
After BTC surged to $73,070, there was no immediate sharp pullback; instead, it consolidated sideways at a high level between $72,000 and $73,000. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are still clustered around $72,600, indicating that short-term costs are rising rapidly; meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are starting to contract, and the KDJ has returned to a neutral zone, meaning the previous one-sided acceleration has temporarily ended.
So I would not simply define this as a "position to continue chasing longs."
The area around $73,000 has become the first real resistance that needs to be tested.
If the price can hold above $73,000 with volume and ETF funds continue to support, then the nature of this rally may gradually shift from "liquidity improvement + short squeeze" to a "trend recovery driven by spot funds," at which point the upside space can reopen.
Conversely, if $73,000 cannot be broken for a long time and the price falls back below $72,000 or even $71,500, caution is warranted for profit-taking after the rapid short squeeze.
I prefer to wait for the market to answer one question:
After shorts have been forced to buy back, is there still real capital willing to continue buying near $73,000?
This is the core variable that will determine BTC's next phase direction.
What do you think? Will $73,000 break directly this time, or will it first pull back to confirm $70,000–$71,000 before moving on to the second leg?
:::$BTC Last night's one-sided surge left many people completely stunned😮 Many stayed up late watching the market but still couldn't figure out why there was a sudden explosive rally. I'll briefly break down the logic behind it for your reference.
First, on the sentiment side: the market had been suppressed for too long, consolidating sideways for many days. Capital was like a drought-stricken fishpond, only missing a rainstorm🌧️ Once there was any stir, the pent-up bullish sentiment was released all at once, creating a short-term one-sided rally.
The more critical catalyst came from the macro side: last night, the U.S. Treasury announced a plan to repurchase government bonds. This action directly reduced the amount of government bonds circulating in the market. With supply down, bond prices naturally rose, and rising bond prices mean yields fall📉 When yields drop, the attractiveness of holding U.S. Treasuries diminishes, prompting large amounts of capital to seek new outlets, turning to safe-haven or inflation-hedge assets like gold and Bitcoin, directly driving BTC's strong rally📈
Of course, this is just my personal judgment based on market structure. Macro policies often impact the crypto market on multiple levels; short-term sentiment and long-term trends may not always align. Everyone should rationally consider their own positions and risk tolerance. What do you think about the logic behind this surge? Feel free to discuss in the comments👇
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile. The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously and bear your own risks. $BTC $ETH $SNDKViewing this rally from a volatility perspective: Deribit's DVOL is still stuck around 39 and hasn't surged alongside the spot price. In other words, the options market is pricing this upward move as a "short pulse" rather than a "trend initiation"—if it were a trend-level move, implied volatility would have moved first. Looking at the MaxPain distribution, the magnet points for the next two to three days are all several thousand dollars below the current price. Prices can be emotional, but open option positions are not. Let the positions speak. $ETHShift your focus from the order book to the calendar: the real variables aren't tonight's spike, but Jackson Hole from 8/27–29, and Wash's debut on 8/28. Coupled with WTI returning to 86, as oil prices rise, the inflation narrative resurfaces, and the market is repricing whether "one more hike" is coming. Before this point, the extremely overbought rally feels more like borrowing patience in advance. Until the macro situation settles, high-leverage longs are racing against time. Data won't play along with you. $BTC Broadcom plans to arrange over $60 billion in debt financing for a single AI project, with a structure where subordinated debt accounts for more than half, which will reprice the valuation clearing range of $AVGO. The core conflict lies in the clash between massive leverage expansion and risk appetite on the equity side.
The market currently focuses on the credit spread trends between subordinated debt and senior secured debt. In the over $60 billion financing plan, the arrangement of about $30 billion in subordinated debt raises the overall capital structure's debt repayment risk. The driving factors in order are: subordinated debt underwriting pricing, senior debt guarantee ratio, and the pace of long position risk-off selling before earnings.
Event risk is directly transmitted to risk appetite through interest rate sensitivity. If the credit premium on nearly $30 billion of subordinated debt exceeds expectations, it will force long-term funds to reduce long positions in the secondary stock market to avoid the interest burden pressure caused by balance sheet expansion.
The upside scenario is based on the assumption that senior secured debt receives high rating endorsement and the spread narrows. If the guarantee terms reduce the default risk of senior debt, making the financing cost of over $60 billion lower than market consensus, it will stimulate arbitrage funds to re-enter and buy long stock positions. The failure signal of this scenario is a surge in subordinated debt issuance rates causing total financing costs to exceed limits.
The downside scenario is based on the credit market overpricing the risk of subordinated debt. When about $30 billion of subordinated debt faces underwriting resistance or the spread widens significantly, the equity market will preemptively reprice $AVGO by eroding profits through interest expenses, triggering a leverage liquidation effect and indiscriminate position withdrawals. The failure signal of this scenario is full coverage of guarantee terms and oversubscription of subordinated debt.
The trading desk's judgment fails if the final financing scale or structure undergoes substantial changes. If the subordinated debt scale is significantly reduced to well below $30 billion, the debt risk transmission logic will be directly lifted, and the market will return to the traditional tech stock cash flow valuation logic.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, focus on changes in the fixed spread between subordinated debt and senior secured debt, as well as the skew of the $AVGO options volatility surface after the debt terms are announced.
#海力士40万亿回购，扩产与回报如何平衡 #迈威尔获Google芯片协议，财报前AI订单受关注 #黄金重回4500美元，机构分歧加剧Notable divergence: On Thursday, US stocks were risk-off, with the Dow down -1.31%, the Nasdaq down -1%, led by tech declines, and $Moderna dropping 23.5% in one day. Traditional risk assets are contracting, but the crypto market is charging ahead alone, with $BTC up +6% in 24h. Historically, this kind of "stocks down, crypto up" divergence rarely sustains long-term; either stocks stabilize, or crypto falls back. When overall risk appetite cools, liquidity is usually first pulled from the most speculative side. Watch positions carefully; don't mistake an isolated rally for immunity. $BTCThe crypto market suddenly "fully revived" these past two days. Many people thought it was just Trump speaking out or the SEC issuing new regulations, but that was only the surface. The real trigger was a long-planned "big move" by the U.S. Treasury.
Previously, Bitcoin had been stuck around $60,000 for a whole month and a half, with funds completely locked up. Why? Because the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond soared to a 19-year high (5.33%). Think about it: if you can earn a guaranteed 5%+ just by buying Treasuries, who would want to touch the high-risk Bitcoin?
Until August 19, when the U.S. Treasury stepped in and doubled the repurchase scale of 10- to 30-year Treasuries, with each operation at least $4 billion.
Even more interesting is a "closed-loop" of funds: the government’s repurchase of long-term bonds is actually financed by issuing short-term Treasuries. And the main buyers of these short-term Treasuries are precisely the crypto companies issuing USD stablecoins (legally required to buy short-term U.S. Treasuries). This creates a perfect cycle: funds buy short-term bonds → Treasury uses the money to repurchase long-term bonds to suppress interest rates → funds flow back into Bitcoin → stablecoin supply expands → continue buying short-term bonds.
So why has the price surged so sharply these past two days? Because the market was extremely pessimistic before, with retail investors heavily shorting. Once the policy turned positive, shorts were forced to cover, directly triggering an epic "short squeeze". #BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？ #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议 标题：站上7万美元，不代表牛市已经正式吹响号角。 BTC 这一波上涨确实很猛，但我更愿意把它理解成一次消息催化 + 空头回补 + 情绪修复带来的快速反弹，而不是已经确认的新一轮全面牛市。 📌 为什么突然拉起来？ 近期美国流动性预期出现改善，同时美国监管层继续推进数字资产监管框架，白宫与加密行业的政策互动也在增加，市场对未来监管环境进一步放松的预期升温。 与此同时，现货 BTC ETF 近期出现约 4.8亿美元的单日净流入，创下数月以来较强水平；随着 BTC 突破关键位置，大量空头仓位被迫止损，市场短时间内出现超过 25亿美元规模的清算。 所以这波上涨的逻辑并不复杂： 利好消息 → 情绪升温 → BTC突破 → 空头止损 → 被动买盘继续推高价格。 问题是： 这些资金究竟是长期增量资金，还是短线被迫回补？ 目前还需要继续观察。 市场散户多空比也从此前约 2.0 降至 1.4附近，说明部分多头已经开始降低仓位。 更值得警惕的是，资金费率已经处于相对高位。类似的极端状态过去也曾出现过——当杠杆资金过度拥挤时，即使趋势依旧向上，也很容易出现突然的大幅洗盘。 历史不会简单重复，但市场的节奏有时Let's talk about an easily overlooked signal: in this rally, the funding rate for $BTC has quietly flipped positive from neutral, and $ETH has even hit around 0.01%. On the surface, it looks like a bull party, but from another perspective—the positive funding rate means that now the shorts are collecting money instead of paying. After a short squeeze clears out the underwater shorts, those left are the ones willing to pay the funding fee to hold long positions at high levels. It's clear who is subsidizing whom. Meanwhile, the volume ratio never picks up, indicating this is a pulse-style squeeze, not an influx of new capital entering the market. The data won't play tricks on you. $BTC$ANIME This spot for ANIME is truly a paradise for manipulative whales, repeatedly stabbing around 0.0026, volume hasn't increased but turnover is extremely high, a typical scenario of mutual insults. Pure capital speculation with no fundamental support, it's normal that retail investors can't hold on, they wash out and give up quickly. My view is don't rush to chase, wait for volume to pick up and choose a direction, either break through and follow the trend, or break down and exit. Do you think this move is a setup or a bull trap? Drop the tokens you're watching in the comments. 👇👇👇Recently, I noticed another direction in the Core ecosystem worth paying attention to: Fiamma's BitVM2 bridge now supports Core.
I think ordinary people might not easily feel the impact of this, but it addresses the issue of how BTC and other chains can interoperate with greater trust.
I'm increasingly convinced that if Core really wants to build a large BTCFi in the future, just having a staking function won't be enough. How BTC comes in, how it is used afterward, and how assets flow—these infrastructures all need to be gradually developed.
So now, I'm actually less concerned about how many points CORE gains today.
What I really want to see is whether, after these infrastructures are all completed one by one, a truly usable BTCFi ecosystem can finally be formed. $CORE Bitcoin breaks through $72,000, with over $3.3 billion liquidated across the network
On August 20, Bitcoin surged 11% to surpass $72,000, reaching a nearly three-month high. Ethereum rose over 19%, and SOL increased more than 13%.
According to CoinGlass data, 188,000 people worldwide were liquidated within 24 hours, totaling $3.34 billion, with short positions accounting for over $3 billion, marking the largest short liquidation wave since 2021.
Drivers of the rally: First, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting September 9, the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases will double, causing U.S. bond yields to fall and the dollar to weaken, improving liquidity expectations. Second, the SEC proposed new crypto asset regulations allowing compliant projects to issue no more than $75 million annually. Third, Trump held a crypto industry summit at the White House, urging Congress to advance the CLARITY Act.
The core trigger for this surge comes from crowded short positions accumulated during six months of consolidation—BTC has long oscillated around 60,000, with the derivatives market accumulating significant leveraged shorts. The price breaking through a key liquidation dense zone created a short squeeze positive feedback loop.
Looking ahead, the $72,000-$75,000 range is a short-term key resistance zone; holding above it could lead to further gains, while a pullback should watch for support around $68,000-$69,000.
Brothers, did you get on board this wave? Let's discuss in the comments
$BTC $ETH
#BTC突破72000美元，本轮上涨能否延续？
#ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 The total supply of OKB has been fixed at 21 million tokens, and it is also the only native Gas token of the X Layer.
Scarcity is an advantage, but "limited quantity" does not necessarily mean a price increase. What truly determines long-term value is whether the X Layer has users, transactions, and real Gas demand.#美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3，官员加息分歧仍在
The just-released July FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve are quite straightforward: basically no one in the entire document mentioned "rate cuts." The final vote was 9 to 3 to keep rates unchanged, with 3 members directly calling for a rate hike. The gist of the minutes is that if inflation doesn't come down, rate hikes may be necessary later. Previously, everyone was hoping for rate cuts daily; now the main discussion has shifted to "whether to raise rates."
The short-term implication of these minutes for the crypto market is that they reinforce the pricing basis that "a high interest rate environment may persist longer." Major assets like Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum #$ETH are highly sensitive to real interest rates and USD liquidity. The minutes clearly lack any discussion of rate cuts while keeping the option to hike rates, which will weaken the market's expectations for easing within the year. However, it is important to distinguish that the minutes reflect information from a meeting three weeks ago; since then, some employment and inflation data have shown signs of weakening, and the probability of a September hike has somewhat declined. What truly affects recent trends is not this lagging document itself but whether subsequent policy communication and data can resonate.
For now, put aside the fantasy that "rate cuts are coming soon," at least until Jackson Hole hears what Wash has to say; meanwhile, watch inflation and employment data before the September meeting—if the data softens, the market will reignite rate cut expectations; if the data is strong, high rates will continue to weigh; also, observe whether funds are flowing into or out of the crypto space.The market has indeed clearly warmed up. $BTC has once again climbed above $71,000, and $ETH has also shown a strong rally, marking a clear round of risk appetite recovery in the entire crypto market. But there's one data point I think can't be ignored right now: 📊 the CMC Altcoin Season Index is currently only about 41/100, still clearly far from the true 'Altcoin Season', and overall it still leans more toward the Bitcoin Season. What does this mean? Many traders see BTC break out, ETH follow the rally, and some altcoins rise 8%–15% in a single day, and then start shouting, "The altcoin season is back." I think it's still too early. This rally is driven not only by technical buying driven by BTC's breakout of key price ranges, but also by recent expectations of improved US regulatory conditions, institutional capital inflows, and a warming sentiment toward spot ETFs. But the real altcoin season can't just be watched by a few coins suddenly surging. What I'm more concerned about is: 🔹 Can BTC's rally stabilize 🔹? Can ETH/BTC continue to strengthen 🔹? Will ETF funds continue to flow into net inflows 🔹? Will the trading volume and capital breadth in the altcoin market expand 🔹? Can the Altcoin Season Index continue to move above 60? If funds remain concentrated in BTC and ETH, and other altcoins are just rotating pulses, it would be more like liquidity rotation8.21 Friday Latest Gold Analysis
From a technical perspective, after gold filled the 4450 gap during the European session yesterday and started an upward channel, the highest price has reached 4540. Currently, the 4500 support has stabilized, and the small range is in a consolidation phase. The key focus is the strength of the 4500 support level. As long as the 4500 level is not effectively broken downward, after a slight pullback, it is highly likely to continue a strong upward trend. The upward channel is now fully open, with the next resistance near 4550. In terms of trading, operate around the support with low buy positions!
Suggestion:
Buy around 4500-4490, target near 4550-4580
$XAU Trump publicly stated that the U.S. "has ended the war on cryptocurrency" and urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act as soon as possible. This statement quickly ignited market sentiment, with Bitcoin surging strongly through the $70,000 mark in the short term, causing bears to be heavily squeezed and further amplifying the upward momentum. 🔥 The core catalyst for this rally is clearly not just the price itself, but a substantive policy shift. Trump has clearly made deregulation of crypto a key policy focus and directly named the CLARITY Act, signaling that the industry is moving from being "besieged" to "being accepted by legislation." More noteworthy is the timeline: the key vote on the bill is scheduled for September 15. If the bill gains sufficient support in Congress, September could become a major watershed moment for the crypto market. The implementation of the compliance framework will attract more institutional capital and pave the way for subsequent ETFs, bank custody, and other products. But the market never just rises and never falls. What we need to be most wary of right now is the sell-the-news risk where "all good news is exhausted." Before the bill was voted, expectations were partially factored into the price; If the final result falls short of expectations or the details are significantly weakened, short-term pullback pressure cannot be ignored. Additionally, there is a dense trapped interest above $70,000, and sustained activity after a breakout still needs to be confirmed by volume. In the coming days, the market will battle two core variables: first, the efforts Trump is making at the executive level to push the bill; second, there is internal controversy in Congress over specific provisions for crypto regulation. Any piece of news could trigger a dramaBlockBeats news: On August 21, the CME Federal Reserve observed key changes in its data! The probability of holding rates unchanged in September fell to 65.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike surged to 34.6%. 📊 Compared to the previous day's data on August 20: yesterday's probability of unchanged was 67.3%, while the probability of rate hikes was only 32.7%. In just one day, rate hike expectations rose by 1.9 percentage points, and market bets on tightening have heated up again! Don't underestimate this 1.9% change! Currently, the market has just emerged from a short squeeze rally, and bullish sentiment is heating up. If rate hike expectations continue to rise, US Treasury yields could surge again at any time, and expectations of tightened liquidity will directly impact risk assets. In the short term, the risk of market volatility has sharply increased, and after the surge, hidden risks of plunge are hidden. The next priorities: the Jackson Hole speech, inflation, and employment data—each could trigger a new round of dramatic market rally. $BTC $ETH #美联储7月FOMC纪要9比3, disagreements among officials about rate hikes remain Anthropic plans to publicly rush a $75 billion financing round anchored at a $2 trillion valuation, but the nearly $42 billion loss in 2025 tied to massive computing power forms the core contradiction of the valuation inversion.
The $11.5 billion revenue in Q2 proves the ability to grow income, but the nearly $42 billion net loss in 2025 directly limits the pace of balance sheet repair. The primary driver of valuation is rigid computing power expenditure, followed by enterprise-level monetization speed, and lastly long-term revenue expectations.
This event risk is transmitting from the primary market to risk appetite in the secondary market. Nvidia guarantees $105 billion for data centers, and pension funds take on construction bonds, leading to highly overlapping positions in the computing power industry chain. If the public market cannot absorb the $75 billion financing amount, risk aversion sentiment will quickly spread to the entire AI sector.
Management demands super voting rights with 2% equity, while locking in cash outflows through multi-billion-dollar computing power contracts with SpaceX over three years. If the underlying computing power cost reduction fails to exceed expectations, the profitable quarters mentioned by the CFO will be hard to repeat, and DeepSeek’s price competition continues to suppress overall monetization gross margin.
The upside scenario is based on a significant drop in computing power costs and accelerated enterprise-level monetization exceeding expectations. If the path to achieving the $190 billion to $200 billion revenue forecast by 2028 is clear, and computing power spending growth is lower than revenue growth, the $2 trillion valuation will gain fundamental support; the failure signal for this scenario is a continuous increase in the proportion of computing power contract expenditures.
The downside scenario focuses on massive losses triggering risk aversion suppression in the secondary market. If the $75 billion financing squeezes public market liquidity and risks such as model bypassing safety protections trigger regulatory intervention, institutional positions will see concentrated exits; the failure signal for this scenario is stronger-than-expected secondary market absorption and rapid chip digestion.
The failure condition judgment lies in computing power expenditure rigidity breaking the upper limit or price wars causing long-term gross margin collapse, making the valuation model unable to discount based on long-term revenue.
The core observation variables for the next 7 days are the computing power liability details in the public offering application documents and the position adjustment trends in the secondary market technology sector.
#OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落