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BTC surged to around 78,000 this round. Honestly, it's quite strong, but we need to clear the accounts — not all this money is "new money."
First, looking at real cash: U.S. stock spot ETFs have had net inflows for several consecutive days. On August 21 alone, $307 million flowed in, with BlackRock's IBIT taking $239 million. Institutional buybacks are real. But on the other hand, "short squeeze" contributed most of the firepower in this rally. $3 billion worth of shorts were liquidated in a single day, which is a one-time fuel that will burn out.
For the mid-term, I see it as "strong but unstable." If ETFs can maintain daily inflows of two to three hundred million, the capital flow can hold, and BTC can stabilize above 70,000; but if the Fed stays hawkish and U.S. Treasury yields rise again, those institutional inflows can quickly turn into outflows. There was a precedent of $4.5 billion net outflow in the first half of last year. Plus, August is historically BTC's weakest month. Don't chase in the mid-term; a pullback to 70,000 without breaking it is the real signal that capital can hold.
In short: short-term funds are hot, but mid-term depends on ETFs not breaking flow, otherwise it's just high-level turnover after a short squeeze.
$BTC
$ETH
$DOGE Short positions have just been liquidated, and money is quietly moving.
The crypto market appeared calm over the weekend, with $BTC steady around $77,000 without any movement. But if you only focus on mainstream coins, you might have missed an undercurrent—$ZEC surged with volume, $TRUMP skyrocketed in a single day, and the altcoin pot is quietly heating up.
What ignited the market was the dual resonance of macro policies and a short squeeze: U.S. long-term bond repos pushed yields down, Trump called for advancing the "Clear Act," and the SEC plans to exempt some digital assets from registration. These three positive factors combined led to concentrated liquidation of short positions, with over $3.4 billion liquidated across the network in 5 days.
But the short squeeze will eventually end. The real question is: after the shorts are washed out, who will take over?
The good news is that spot buying is entering the market. This week, 13 spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $1 billion, and whales increased holdings by about $2.75 billion over 60 days. The market is transitioning from a "shorts stampede" to a "bulls relay."
In sectors, ZEC is catalyzed by the Grayscale ETF but is already overbought; TRUMP is sentiment-driven and may pull back at any time; OKB has a more solid logic and is worth watching if it stabilizes around $115.
This weekend, don’t chase the top gainers. Focus on ETF capital flows and trading volume—the short squeeze comes fast and goes fast. The directions that can survive cycles are always those supported by fundamentals. 先别急着喊牛回，最脆弱的环节其实藏在反弹最漂亮的那根K线里。 你有没有发现，这周市场像被谁按了快进键？ BTC 从底部一口气弹了 20% 以上，重新站回 77K，ETH 也朝着 2.4K 的方向猛冲。ETF 资金流向彻底反转，过去七天两个主流标的的现货ETF加起来吸了数十亿美元。数字摆出来，确实有点梦幻。 但我不太想只用"反弹"两个字概括这件事。更准确的说法是：市场在修复，但还没进入新的趋势确认区。 - 动量信号：BTC 周线级别收回 77K，是过去三个月以来第一次出现像样的周线收盘结构 - 资金信号：ETF 连续净流入，且流入速度在加快，说明传统资金不是试探性买入，而是有计划的回补 - 结构信号：ETH 跟涨力度终于跟上，不再像之前那样只有 BTC 独自表演 但风险信号同样明显。 - 反弹幅度虽大，但成交量的持续性还没有被验证，日线放量只出现了一两天 - 价格回到了前期密集成交区，这里堆积了大量套牢盘，卖压是真实的 - 宏观环境没有根本性变化，这次反弹更多是超跌+空头回补+ETF情绪共振的结果 我的理解是这样：市场现在交易的是"最坏时刻已过"的预期，而不是"新一轮繁荣开始"的叙事。这从本轮周期高点算起，$BTC 经过约 305 天的调整，目前最大跌幅约 35%。 放到历史周期中对比： 🔻 2017–2018 年熊市：最大回撤约 84% 🔻 2021–2022 年熊市：最大回撤约 77% 🔻 本轮周期：约 35% 更值得关注的是，近期美国现货 BTC ETF 资金重新出现较强流入，机构买盘正在为市场提供新的支撑。如果资金流能够持续，BTC 的周期结构或许与过去几轮有所不同。 ⚠️ 但这并不意味着这里就是绝对底部。 历史不会简单重复，每轮周期的宏观环境、机构参与度和资金结构都在变化。 真正需要观察的是：回撤是否继续扩大，以及现货需求能否在关键支撑区域持续出现。 差异已经非常明显，接下来市场会告诉我们，这次到底是不是一个不同寻常的周期。 $BTC #BTC77K资金流测试 #黄金4600对比债券 #三星最高800亿美元$ETH 📊THE BLOCK｜US BTC+ETH Spot ETFs Record Strongest Weekly Performance Since October 2025
According to THE BLOCK data, US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs collectively recorded a net inflow of $2.6 billion last week, marking the strongest weekly capital performance since October 2025.
With a significant price rebound, the combined ETF trading volume tripled directly, reaching $29 billion in weekly turnover, showing a notable surge in institutional trading activity.
Key Market Signals
1. Complete Capital Reversal
Last week completely reversed the previous week's outflows, with institutional allocation funds returning in concentration. Bitcoin ETFs were the main inflow drivers, while Ethereum ETFs also recorded consecutive days of positive inflows. Traditional funds are simultaneously positioning in both BTC and ETH sectors.
2. Price and Capital Resonance
This rally is driven by improved US Treasury repo liquidity and expectations of US crypto policies. Price increases attract ETF subscriptions, and continuous ETF net inflows in turn provide spot buying support, forming a short-term positive feedback loop. The surge in trading volume indicates a rapid warming of traditional financial markets' attention to crypto assets.
3. Risks to Consider Rationally
⚠️ Large weekly inflows are a strong signal, but a single week's surge does not mean it will continue indefinitely.
Early in this rally, a large number of short positions were closed, causing a short squeeze effect, but this squeeze bonus is gradually fading. The future market depends heavily on whether ETFs can convert large inflows into sustained normalcy. If inflows quickly decline and profit-taking occurs at high levels, the market could easily face a sharp pullback.
Capital is beginning to diverge, with some incremental funds flowing out from BTC, raising the ETH-BTC exchange rate. The foundational conditions for altcoin rotation are slowly being built by capital.
Risk Warning: Information is for market reference only and does not constitute investment advice
#ETF #BTC #ETH #InstitutionalFunds
$BTC $ETH市场都在关注 $BTC 的快速反弹，但我更想知道：这次上涨到底是谁在买？ 是新的现货资金持续进场，还是大量空头被强平后形成的“逼空行情”？ 这两种情况，看起来都是上涨，但意义完全不同。 📊 近期美国现货 BTC ETF 资金重新转强，市场一周净流入约 $1.47B，说明机构需求正在回暖。不过，真正的考验还在后面——当空头清算潮结束后，现货买盘能不能继续接力。 如果 BTC 回踩后依然有持续买盘，并且 ETF 资金保持净流入，那么这轮上涨可能正在从短期挤压转向更健康的趋势行情。 但如果杠杆清算结束后买盘迅速消失，成交量同步降温，那么这次拉升也可能只是一次短暂的 squeeze。 🎯 我现在更关注的不是 BTC 涨了多少，而是上涨之后谁还愿意继续买。 $BTC #BTC77KFlowTest #Gold4600VsBonds #SamsungPayoutUpTo80BWill the Federal Reserve really cut interest rates in September for $BTC?
Recently, many in the crypto space have been betting on the expectation of a Fed rate cut.
Many assume that a rate cut will happen in September, pushing crypto prices higher.
But looking at the recent macro data, I'm not so optimistic.
There are now two completely different voices in the market.
Some institutions are betting on a rate cut starting in September to inject liquidity into risk assets.
Others believe there will be no rate cut this year at all, and there might even be another rate hike.
Rate cuts are not just about the Fed wanting to cut; they depend on two key measures: inflation and employment.
Inflation is stumbling down but still far from the 2% target, and geopolitical conflicts could push oil prices up again, driving inflation back up.
Employment data is volatile, sometimes cooling off, sometimes very resilient, causing great dilemmas for the Fed's decisions.
Having traded for so long, I've seen many times when the market fully priced in a rate cut prematurely, only for the expectation to be dashed, which then crashes the market.
If there is no rate cut in September, the market that rose on positive expectations will likely face a correction.
Two scenarios:
✅ If inflation clearly falls and employment weakens continuously, there will be confidence for a rate cut in September, which would be positive for risk assets like Bitcoin.
❌ If inflation rebounds and the economy holds up, rates will likely remain unchanged or even lean hawkish, putting pressure on the market.
Don't bet all the market's rise on a rate cut.
Expectations are expectations; actual outcomes are actual outcomes, and the damage from unmet expectations can be severe. #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 One thing rarely gets the attention it deserves: The debt problem keeps getting pushed down the road. Cutting spending is unpopular. Raising taxes is unpopular. So politically, kicking the can is often easier than making painful fiscal decisions. That’s where scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold become interesting. You don’t have to agree with the politics to understand the demand: When trust in fiscal discipline weakens, people look for assets that can’t simply be printed into existence. That na今天市场的核心结论是：风险偏好仍然分化，传统市场的压力没有完全解除，但加密市场继续维持明显的相对强势。周五美股在连续调整后反弹，但全周依然收跌，长端美债收益率和接近95美元的油价仍是压制估值的核心变量。周末地缘局势出现一个边际缓和信号——伊朗允许部分伊拉克油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡，但整体通航依然远低于战前水平。BTC目前约在7.75万美元附近高位震荡，在传统市场休市期间，它仍然是观察全球风险偏好的最直接窗口。 一、隔夜发生了什么？ 1. 美股周五反弹，但没有扭转整周偏弱格局 事实： 周五美股三大指数集体上涨： 道琼斯指数上涨0.98%，收于53,277.01点； 标普500上涨0.43%，收于7,674.37点； 纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.44%，收于26,180.46点。 但从整周来看： 标普500下跌1.43%； 纳指下跌2.05%； 道指下跌0.85%。 标普和纳指都结束了此前连续三周上涨。 市场反应： 周五市场情绪明显比前几个交易日稳定，材料、医疗和金融板块领涨，加密相关股票尤其强势。 Robinhood上涨13.7%，Coinbase上涨8.2%，Strategy上涨6%。 背后逻9月8日，加美"一美元对一美元"开火：Crypto圈的真正风暴不在盘面，在流动性 8月22日，加拿大总理卡尼宣布，因美国对价值200亿美元的加拿大商品征收50%关税，加方将于9月8日起对美国钢铁、乳制品、家电、农业设备、纸浆造纸、电子产品等发起等额报复性关税，加美贸易谈判就此破裂。 【老手的碎碎念】 别只盯着盘面那点波动。9月8日这道线画下去，真正被改写的是全球美元的"出口"。 高关税一上来，美国进口成本被人为抬高，进口总量被压下去——以往美国靠买全世界的货把美元撒向全球的路径，被自己亲手掐了一截。全球能拿到的美元少了，美元流动性供给被动收紧。这事听起来离BTC很远，其实最近。 BTC早就不单是"数字黄金"了。2025年那波冲到11.2万美元，靠的是ETF、财库配置、英伟达+AI叙事的外溢，它已经变成高贝塔的流动性资产——全球风险偏好一收，它先跪；美债实际利率一上，它先抖。 现在加美互砍50%，欧盟、墨西哥、中国那边会怎么想？谈判桌上的筹码逻辑一旦从"互利"切到"对等报复"，关税楔子就钉进来了。徐奇渊那篇讲得透：关税推升美国通胀预期，美债长端利率下行受阻，全球无风险利率降不下来，风险溢The market may be pricing in ZEC becoming the institutional privacy play. Grayscale is pushing toward an NYSE-listed ZEC ETF, while adoption is expanding through payment integrations and shielded transactions. But here’s the catch: • ETF isn’t live yet • No confirmed major inflows • Network fees remain tiny vs. the valuation • ZEC is already around $14B market cap Price is running ahead of fundamentals. I’m not chasing this candle. I want to see the ETF launch, real inflows, and a healthy pullbaBTC is currently at 77,100 (after a weekly rise of over 23%, it failed to break 79.5k and then pulled back), ETH is at 2420 (weaker than BTC, 2500 not broken). Daily RSI is 82–85, 4H RSI is 93, indicating overbought across all timeframes; Bollinger Bands are widening and moving along the upper band, MACD is bullish but 1H momentum is weakening.
Capital flow: BTC ETF weekly net inflow is about 1.92 billion, with a single day peak of 608 million, led by IBIT; fees have turned positive but spot trading volume has shrunk, indicating a "short squeeze + ETF support" rather than new explosive volume.
Macro: 10Y US Treasury yield at 4.7%, with Nvidia earnings on the 26th and Jackson Hole on the 28th setting the tone for continued risk-on sentiment.
SNDK/Hynix line: 54 trillion KRW dumped at Yongin Y2 + Cheongju M17, HBM4 is already in mass production, 2026 capacity sold out, LTA price lock hedges the cycle, waiting for Vera Rubin orders to be fulfilled.
Conclusion: High-level turnover is not a bottom; if 76.5k (BTC)/2400 (ETH) hold, the range will continue, watch for false breakouts; 80k requires volume expansion + ETF continued inflow confirmation, avoid chasing highs during thin weekend liquidity. $BTC dropped 38% from the cycle peak after 320 days.
Compared to the previous cycle, this decline is still relatively mild.
2017-18 reached -83%.
2021-22 reached -76%.
Not saying this is the bottom. But the difference is hard to ignore.
$BTC Don't call it "bottom fishing" now—BTC at 77,000 and ETH at 2,420 represent a high-level pullback after failing to break 80,000, not a bottom. The daily RSI at 82–93 is severely overbought, with a 23% rise over 5 days mainly driven by a short squeeze; short-term holders have turned profitable and selling pressure is gradually increasing.
ETF inflow hit 600 million in a single day (led by IBIT), prices have risen above the 200-day moving average, and fees are neutral. The mid-term structure remains intact, but thin weekend liquidity combined with unanimous bullish sentiment makes it easiest to get stopped out by a spike.
If you really want to enter: wait for BTC to stabilize around the 76,000–76,500 and ETH around the 2,350–2,400 watershed levels before scaling in, with stop losses at 74,500/2,300; chasing now means taking over last week's profit-taking positions. Brothers, today I’m putting BTC and ETH together — these two are currently following a "big brother leading the little brother" script.
Just checked OKX data, $BTC is now at $77,402, $ETH at $2,428. Over the past week, BTC has risen over 20%, once touching a three-month high of $79,455; ETH also followed suit, breaking through $2,400 and holding a key weekly level.
🚀 What happened? "Currency devaluation trades" ignite the dual-core rally
This surge is driven by two forces simultaneously.
First, US Treasury repos acted as the fuse. The US Treasury announced increasing the long-term bond repo size from $2 billion each time to "no less than $4 billion," which the market interpreted as the government actively easing long-end yield pressure. The dollar weakened, gold surged, and Bitcoin, as the core asset of "currency devaluation trades," took off directly. Bridgewater Fund founder Ray Dalio publicly recommended allocating gold and Bitcoin, further strengthening the narrative.
Second, shorts were liquidated in a chain reaction, amplifying the rally. On August 19, about $2.7 billion in short positions were liquidated in the crypto market, the highest on record according to CoinGlass, with BTC shorts alone liquidated over $1 billion within an hour. The buying from short covering combined with genuine buying pushed prices above $79,000.
On the capital side, this week the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.9178 billion, and the Ethereum spot ETF net inflow was $692.6 million, both marking five consecutive days of net inflows. Real spot demand is taking over from short squeezes, which is the essential difference from previous "fake pump" rebounds.
📊 Market status: healthy correction after rapid rise
BTC: Around $77,400, slightly retreating from the $79,455 high. Analysts say this is a "sideways consolidation" after a sharp rise; daily charts enter a correction phase but the mid-term trend remains intact. $80,000 is a psychological battleground; if volume breaks through, the $82,500-$85,000 range opens; if resisted, $75,000-$76,000 is the first support zone.
ETH: Around $2,428, adjusting in sync with BTC. The ETH/BTC ratio strengthening indicates capital flowing from BTC overflow to ETH. $2,300-$2,350 is the key support zone below; holding it means the rebound continues; above, $2,450-$2,500 is short-term resistance.
Risk signal: A mysterious large whale sold 7,700 BTC in the past 3 days, worth about $576.6 million, indicating some big money is offloading at highs. If the SEC’s proposed new crypto asset financing regulations pass, it could benefit mainstream public chain tokens like ETH and SOL.
💰 My view: The trend is there, but watch for pullbacks
This rally has macro catalysts, short covering, and real ETF buying — a triple drive much more reliable than pure leverage-driven moves. But a rapid rise from $63,000 to $79,000, over 25%, carries significant risk chasing highs.
My strategy:
· For those with positions: Hold steady, but consider taking partial profits near $80,000
· For those wanting in: Wait for a pullback to $75,000-$76,000 (BTC) or around $2,350 (ETH) to confirm support before entering
· Focus: Next week’s Jackson Hole central bank meeting; Fed chair’s remarks will be the real "catalyst"
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference only)
· BTC long: Enter on pullback to $75,000-$76,000 with stop loss at $74,000, target $80,000-$82,500
· ETH long: Enter on pullback near $2,350 with stop loss at $2,300, target $2,500-$2,550
· Shorts: Light positions can be tried if rebound near $80,000 (BTC) or $2,500 (ETH) shows weakness, with tight stop loss
· Leverage: Within 3x, as rapid rallies have high volatility
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ 9月8日这道关税闸门一开，BTC是跟着美股跳楼，还是借机再冲8万？ 8月22日加拿大总理卡尼确认，因美国对价值200亿美元的加拿大商品加征50%关税，加方将于9月8日起对美钢铁、乳制品、家电、农业设备、纸浆造纸及电子产品等实施一美元对一美元的等额报复性关税，加美贸易谈判就此破裂。 【老手的碎碎念】 加拿大这点体量，200亿美元商品的关税，搁全球贸易盘面里其实不算啥惊天巨浪。但架不住它是根引线啊。美加谈崩了，墨西哥会不会跟进？欧盟那一揽子反制草案是不是也要提速？特朗普援引338条款打过来的50%关税本来8月19日就要生效，推迟三天后如今悬而未决——这种"最后一刻反复"最要命，市场讨厌的不是坏消息，是没完没了的悬念。 回到咱们盘面上。8月19日美国财政部把长债回购上限从20亿美元提到至少40亿美元，30年期国债收益率从2007年来高位回落，流动性预期一松，BTC当天就从6.4万区域直抽，三天干到7.8万上方，单周涨幅22%，空单爆仓12.7亿美元，全球近20万人爆仓、总额33.43亿美元。恐慌贪婪指数冲到62，踏入"贪婪"区间，是2025年10月以来最亢奋的一次。 热闹是真热闹。可老哥我得BTC suddenly dropped, and altcoins almost instantly crashed, which actually reveals the truth about this altcoin rally: many gains are not from a spot bull market, but from leverage plus thin liquidity.
$BTC is the risk anchor of Crypto. Once it plunges sharply, contract liquidations, quantitative risk reduction, and market makers withdrawing bids happen simultaneously, causing the order books of small coins to instantly become empty.
So next time, don't just look at who falls the hardest; I actually watch who recovers first.
$BTC falls → altcoins crash → open interest gets wiped out → top 50 holders hold firm → price recovers first.
These coins are the most worth studying.
Because truly strong altcoins are not those that rise the most when $BTC goes up, but those whose market makers still refuse to sell chips when BTC is deleveraging.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ Don't call for a cow. Damn it. Bitcoin jumped from 64,000 to 77,000, and at 1900 ETH, I directly drew 2500. Selling 2.6 billion in short positions in one day, it can explode 1 billion in just one hour. The circle started beating drums and gongs again, making it feel like the day of the halving ceremony. Wake up. This isn't bull—it's the bears stacking leverage into a mountain in a dead market, and the Ministry of Finance casually lit a cigarette. Who started the fire? Not Cong or V God, but U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent. Long-term bond yields have soared to a 20-year high, all the money is lying on government bonds to earn interest, and the crypto world is like a morgue. On August 19, he said: 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year government bond repurchases, 2 billion yuan will be upgraded to at least 4 billion, and the market will start on September 9. The next day, he added another blow: 4 billion is the minimum limit. In plain language: national debt isn't as tempting anymore, and the water is starting to overflow. The big bing hardens just by smelling liquidity—this is a reflex, not a awakening of faith. Anyone who tries to bring up halving or institutional entry narratives at this time is either foolish or wants you to take over. The White House actually gave some face. Trump called in Coinbase and Robinhood, shouting to push the Clarity Act through Congress. What do institutions fear most? It's not a drop, it's that compliance people are stuck in subscriptions. Once the pass is opened, ETFs are active. That week, it attracted 1.1 billion in funds, with Ethereum reaching 220 million in a single day, a ten-month high. BlackRock and IBIT alone bear eighty percent of the burden. The play is just these three lines: The Ministry of Finance is easing the water, igniting the fire. The White House gave a legal explanation and opened the door. The shorts have built up their own explosives and ended up blowing themselves up. Once the price breaks, short positions explode, forced buying, breaking again, then exploding again. The gears are biting tight. You see one$BTC $ETH 梳理一下周末拉升到周一开盘的底层逻辑： --- 1. 周末涨往往是因为「流动性太薄」 - 周末传统金融机构（美股、现货 ETF、CME 芝商所）全在休市，交易所深度和挂单量远低于工作日。 - 在这种“薄流动性”环境下，稍微有一点买盘或者触发一小波爆仓，价格就会被迅速放大拉升。也就是说，现在的猛涨不一定是机构在大买，很可能是盘子太轻被情绪盘或合约踩踏硬推上去的。 --- 2. 周一面临「CME 跳空缺口」回补压力 - CME 比特币期货周五收盘后就停盘了，如果周末现货一路猛拉，周一早上一开盘就会形成一个巨大的向上跳空缺口（CME Gap）。 - 从历史规律来看，币圈有极大概率在短期内去回踩填补这个缺口，也就是周一开盘先砸一波回补，然后再看真实方向。 --- 3. 「预期抢跑」vs「周一实际买盘」 - 很多人（包括散户和游资）在周末都是这么想的：“周末都涨成这样了，周一美股 ETF 开盘肯定有机构爆买，我得提前上车抢跑”。 - 这就会导致周一开盘前预期已经被打得过满。一旦周一晚上美股开盘，如果 ETF 净流入没有预期中那么猛烈，那些周末抢跑的短线主力很可能会把筹码直接砸И BTC, и ETH показывают уже Strong signal потенциального хая даже на дневном ТФ. Для интереса посмотрели когда такие метки по нашему индикатору были у #BTC в последний раз. 14 июля 2025, когда хай дневной свечи был на 123 218$. После этого на ближайшие месяцы цена стала в рендж и переписала ATH два раза и всего немного. 14 августа 124 474$ и 6 октября 126 199$. И дальше - медвежий рынок. У #ETH похожая картина - метка была 12 августа 2025, после чего перехай и ATH был 4 956$ 24 августа. И дальшеSupply Changes in the Next 30 Days
ASTER｜8/25 Biweekly Burn Execution (Triggered Tomorrow)
The current plan is to burn about 2.8 million ASTER every two weeks. On August 25, it is necessary to verify the transactions at the burn address and whether the total supply has actually decreased; if not executed, the credibility of the buyback and burn mechanism announced on June 17 will need to be downgraded. Starting September 17, the team's holding of 400 million tokens will begin monthly releases for the first time, about 10 million per month, and it is also necessary to observe whether these enter the market.
HYPE｜9/1–9/6 Core Contributor Unlock (Conflicting Data)
Different sources report inconsistent release amounts for HYPE: CoinLaunch states 6.43 million tokens will be released on September 1, crypto.news estimates about 9.9 million per month based on continuous release speed, while another view holds that tokens are released continuously daily without a concentrated single-day release. From September 1, the actual on-chain received amount and how much enters exchanges should be directly observed.
UNI｜8 Chain Fee Expansion Proposal Voting Window (Expected Late August to Early September)
The community will first conduct a 5-day vote, then submit for on-chain confirmation; after passing, it will take about 2 more days to take effect. At that time, fees from 8 Layer 2 networks and more Ethereum transaction pools may be used to automatically buy and burn UNI. The actual daily burn amount will be key data to judge whether this mechanism is effective.Actual changes: 8/22 Flash Report (citing Farside monitoring scope) reports BTC spot ETF single-day net inflow of $307.5 million, continuous for 5 trading days; ETH spot ETF net inflow of $184 million, continuous for 7 trading days; no significant outflows within the window. Compared to the conflicting data direction from 8/20–21 recorded in the 8/22 scan, the capital flow direction shows consistent signals for the first time, directly touching the demand dimension of the core hypothesis of BTC/ETH "institutional spot absorption." Supporting evidence: Weekly background still supportive — this week's digital asset ETP inflow of $2.2 billion is the largest of the year (CoinShares 8/20), macro drivers (US Treasury repo expansion, weakening dollar) continue but no new events within 24h. If continuous inflows receive SoSoValue dual-caliber confirmation, the biggest uncertainty in the 8/22 scan "new price highs but questionable capital flow" will be partially resolved. Strongest counter-argument: The flash report is from a single source, Farside/MarsBit; data dates and statistical timing have not yet been reconciled with SoSoValue, and yesterday's conflict has not been officially closed; a single-day inflow of $300 million is still small relative to the $78,000 price level and derivatives market scale (short squeeze, over $1.5 billion liquidations across the network), so the market may still be driven by derivatives rather than institutional spot.跨链安全事件、潜在赔付抛压与多方监管重压共振，导致市场投机流动性受挫收缩，大资金加速撤离高风险协议并全面向主网蓝筹与防御性资产避险。
一、 聪明钱流向与宏观定调
过去12小时的宏观与行业动态，在SMC（Smart Money Concepts）视角下清晰地呈现出“风险规避与流动性防御”的特征。
1. Sandbox跨链桥漏洞暂停（Base & BNB Chain）： 此事件直接导致链上局部信用体系受损。在流动性分布上，DeFi及Web3板块的买方流动性（BSL）遭遇打击，聪明钱开始将资金调离高风险跨链协议，沉淀于主网蓝筹。
2. BitMart或将部分重启及债权人赔付： 这一潜在的清偿行为意味着未来市场上将释放出部分锁定流失的代币，中长期来看，这部分被动流动性的释放往往会在特定价格区间（Premium 溢价区）转化为实质性的卖压。
3. RWA与预测市场监管承压（Fairmint 警示与 Kalshi 诉讼）： 这一维度极大压制了TradFi与Crypto跨界流动性的桥接预期。美监管在各州对预测市场的阻击，使得衍生品市场的投机性流动性（Speculative LiquidityWintermute is sitting on roughly $160M in on-chain exposure, with around $146M in shorts and only ~$13.85M on the other side. That looks aggressively bearish at first glance. But there’s a catch 👀 Market makers don’t trade like retail. They can build positions on-chain while hedging exposure elsewhere, especially on CEXs. Funding can also become a source of yield while the larger book is being managed. So don’t see a huge short wallet and instantly think: “Smart money is dumping. I should shortThreshold custody enters online payments
Last week we looked at key generation; today we examine protocol boundaries. New IACR papers embed threshold signatures into Lightning: one side operates as a threshold group, while the counterparty still sees standard MuSig2 participants. Another work addresses two-round signatures under adaptive corruption, and a third studies MPC fallback beyond design assumptions.
The common issue is not "the fewer signing rounds the better," but rather: who can participate, when signing is allowed, whether the message has been altered, and whether to halt on failure. For agentic wallets and x402, first define permissions, limits, manual confirmations, and stop conditions before discussing transaction volume.
Sources: IACR ePrint 2026/1757, 2026/1762, 2026/1768. Disclosure: Compiled by the CoWallet team; we develop MPC wallets for threshold ECDSA and hold positions on self-custody and key security topics.
#AI #Web3 #MPC #Lightning #ThresholdSignatures$77K 的 BTC，热闹是真的，但接盘的人换了一批。 你有没有发现，这轮上涨的"底气"和以前不太一样？ 先说个容易被忽略的数字：美国现货 BTC ETF 这周净流入约 16.1 亿美元，光周四一天就吃了 6.06 亿，是五月以来最猛的单日流入。这个量级说明什么？说明买盘不是散户 FOMO 推起来的，是机构在按季度节奏建仓。 所以我的理解是，$75K 现在是多空分水岭，$80K 是下一个要啃的硬骨头。ETF 资金只要不熄火，BTC 站稳突破位，市场情绪就会从 BTC 外溢到 ETH、SOL、XRP 甚至 HYPE 这类高 beta 资产上。 但我想提醒一句：这轮的结构是"机构托底、散户观望"。如果 BTC 冲高但山寨不跟，或者 ETF 流入突然转负，那表面热闹和真实承接之间就会拉开落差。 偏多路径很清晰：ETF 持续买，BTC 守住 $75K，资金开始向主流山寨扩散，情绪从谨慎转贪婪。 风险路径也要想清楚：ETF 流入是滞后指标，一旦 BTC 冲 $80K 失败，回踩 $75K 以下，杠杆多头会被打得很痛，山寨的跌幅会放大 BTC 的跌幅。 我的判断：这轮更像结构性的趋势起点，而不是短$ETH slowed its upward momentum after reaching the $2500 mark, with consecutive days of short liquidations gradually calming down, and bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war at a key resistance zone.
The spot price surged nearly 30% within a week, breaking through $2540, while the derivatives market saw over $200 million in short liquidations. The market then consolidated narrowly above $2400.
On the funding side, nearly $700 million in net inflows into spot ETFs were recorded in a single week, while exchange reserves dropped to a low of 6.54 million tokens, with over 42 million tokens staked further tightening spot liquidity.
The rapid withdrawal of circulating supply on exchanges amplified the buying efficiency, with continuous institutional accumulation combined with supply tightening directly driving this pulse-like upward move.
If the spot market can sustain volume and hold above the $2500 watershed, the liquidity premium will spread to the $2575 to $2755 range; if volume fails to expand accordingly, this breakout will quickly fail.
If the price is resisted between $2470 and $2500 and falls below the $2400 support, profit-taking and indicator corrections may trigger a deep pullback to the $2330 to $2350 range.
If ETF fund flows turn to net outflows or exchange spot reserves reverse and increase, the driving logic of chip tightening will be substantially disproven.
The most important variable to watch in the next 24 hours is whether spot ETFs can maintain daily net purchases of over $100 million at the start of the week.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #OpenAI二季度营收67亿美元，亏损扩大 #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元These past few days
people who missed out are about to be anxious to death
those who shorted on the rebound are about to jump
I also missed out a lot
I can say I caught the bottom
62800 then 68000 and left
there were indeed issues with the operation
Let's look at history
The three cycles from bull peak to bear bottom lasted approximately 410, 364, and 376 days respectively.
The average is 383 days.
The historical highest point of this $BTC cycle appeared on October 6, 2025, around 126,200.
As of today, August 22, 2026, 320 days have passed.
Time is more important than price points
The important time window is from September to November
If you haven't used all your bullets
keep dollar-cost averaging
If you don't have money
keep working hard to make money
There is nothing to be anxious about
and there are many macro events in the next three months
no one knows when they will happen
Keep making money
and then at the lowest possible point
fire your bullets
and then live well
This is already the limit that each of us ordinary people
can achieve The recent major fluctuations in Bitcoin and gold followed by a strong rebound have made me think a lot.
1) To capitalize on a favorable market trend, you can choose low leverage with wide stop-losses, similar to Bitcoin above 60,000 and gold at 4000-4100. If you are optimistic, enter with low leverage and set wide stop-losses; stop loss only if Bitcoin falls below 60,000 or gold below 3950, so you can catch this rebound.
2) During the middle consolidation phase, avoid trading. The more you trade, the more your mind associates it with consolidation, so when Bitcoin breaks through 67,000 or gold breaks 4200, you will inevitably fail to hold your positions.
3) High leverage can be used after a clear breakout from the range. For example, after a decisive break above 67,000, you can chase longs. The stop loss should be set within the range, and take profit can wait until the first pullback from the top appears, then exit on the rebound.
4) Sometimes news actually increases certainty. You need to tell a narrative that convinces the market to have confidence in holding positions. For example, SPCX confirming the date for a new listing, the decline in US stocks and Bitcoin.
After Bitcoin compressed and consolidated for a month, news came out about the US Treasury expanding long-term Treasury repurchases and the White House cryptocurrency meeting. Behind this news catalyst is definitely the involvement of insider trading.BTC hit a high of $79.5K and currently at $78.5K.
Pretty solid.
Still sticking with my original view. Short-term upside is gonna be tough.
Besides the reasons I said before, Strategy is likely to sell some BTC since it's above their cost basis of ~$75K. Selling BTC to repurchase STRC makes total sense.
So I think BTC will back to $75K and chop around there.
Of course, hoping I'm wrong and it just keeps pumping.🚀
$BTC
#BTC77KFlowTest #Gold4600VsBonds #SamsungPayoutUpTo80B 今天这笔 BTC 空单，收益 +2,763.61 USDT，收益率 +63.75%。 开仓均价：78,279.8 持仓：-2.7686 BTC 杠杆：50X 保证金：4,420.24 USDT 当前标记价：77,281.7 数字看起来很漂亮。 但做久了交易你会发现—— 真正让人上头的，从来不是赚了多少钱，而是这一次判断对了。 我并不是每一次都能看对。 市场给机会的时候敢上， 市场方向不清晰的时候敢等， 行情走出来之后，更重要的是——知道什么时候收手。 很多人亏钱，不是因为不会分析。 而是： ❌ 看到涨了就追 ❌ 看到跌了就慌 ❌ 赚一点就跑，亏了却死扛 ❌ 50倍杠杆当成了“赚钱机器” 其实杠杆只是放大器。 方向对了，它放大利润；方向错了，它同样放大亏损。 这笔单子目前浮盈不错，但我更在意的是账户的安全垫。 截图里维持保证金率 746.1%，这才是我敢拿仓位的底气之一。 我的感悟很简单： 交易不是比谁胆子大，而是比谁能活得久。 BTC每天都有机会， 但你的本金只有一次。 真正稳定的交易者，不是天天抓住暴涨暴跌的人，而是知道什么时候出手，什么时候空仓的人。 这一单，赚的是利润。 但更想留$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Trump is launching a new coin again!
And there are still so many people wanting to buy it, it seems like getting cut on $TRUMP isn't enough yet.
Everyone thinks they are the fastest to make money.
At the same time, it can be predicted that
The "CLARITY Act" probably won't pass this year
because the biggest sticking point is about the president and government officials issuing and endorsing cryptocurrencies.
Since Trump is still launching coins,
that means he hasn't compromised on this point.
With a new coin and new narrative,
this round of $TRUMP might be the last pump before it goes to zero.From my perspective, the VX index still has a long way to go. It might not make much money for half a year, but when it does, it doubles. To me, it’s a kind of protection for going long on US stocks. The volatility for it is very low; it doesn’t have high volatility. It has even hit monthly lows several times. Historically, this price level is a very good bottom-fishing point.
So when will it surge? It will surge only when all the underlying assets are crashing. It’s a panic index, but not the current index—it’s a forward-looking one. In this situation, it can’t fall much, but it can hedge your risk. I think it’s definitely worth holding a position.
At worst, its losses are capped; at most, you lose 5%. If your other assets are making money, spending 5% on insurance is very cost-effective. Because it guarantees that you can react when the market falls, and even when it falls, its rebound is very quick. Looking at history, it has also reached very high levels. Basically, seventy or eighty points are still possible.
Compared to fund managers and big investment banks’ fund managers, our biggest advantage as retail investors is the ability to enter and exit quickly. Our biggest advantage is that we can choose not to sell and hold on. Use your advantages well. But also learn from them on how to hedge some risks—I think that’s a very good path.The market has once again begun to debate a core question: Has this bear market really ended? Jiang Zhuo'er from Lebit Mining Pool has recently given a very optimistic assessment, believing the probability of the bear market ending has reached about 85%, even considering the area around $68,000–$73,000 as a pullback zone worth watching. But another long-term market participant, Hu Wan'er, holds a completely different view. She believes the current rally is more like a rapid rebound driven by news and short covering, rather than a trend bull market after a new round of incremental capital fully enters. From the market perspective, after BTC quickly surged to around $77,000 in a short period, market sentiment has clearly heated up, but the sustainability of spot ETF funds remains worth watching. In some stages, insufficient capital follow-up means the foundation for the rise is not as solid as imagined. What is even more concerning is the significant increase in market volatility recently. XRP experienced a rapid and abnormal decline, and the derivatives market saw large-scale liquidations. The continuous squeeze of high-leverage funds off-exchange indicates that market risks are accumulating rapidly. Jiang Zhuoer is looking at longer-term macro trends; Hu Wan'er focuses on short- to medium-term technical structure and market sentiment. One believes the cycle is turning again, while the other thinks the market may still have a final deep pullback. So, the real danger may not be bullish or bearish, but that during the market's most frenzied moments, people mistake their own judgments for certainty. If BTC continues to break out and hold a key resistance level, the bearish outlook will naturally need to readjust; But if the upward momentum fades,Gold briefly touched $4600 on Friday, surging nearly 5% this week. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still hovering around 4.7%, and gold is stubbornly pushing higher despite the high interest rates.
On August 11, it just broke through 4430, and in less than 10 days, it reached 4600. Moreover, this time it's real money buying — gold funds have recorded the strongest inflow of capital this year, and the options market has shifted from defensive to bullish.
Two points are worth pondering:
First, the US debt scale is still expanding. The 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.3%, a new high since 2007. Interest expenses are growing, and market confidence in the dollar is loosening. Gold is a direct beneficiary.
Second, Bitcoin has risen from 63,000 to 77,000, up 22%. But gold has also risen during the same period, from 4430 to 4600. Safe-haven funds are not choosing one or the other; both are being bought.
My judgment: this round of gold is not a simple safe-haven rally. It is a market re-pricing of the US dollar credit system under a high interest rate environment. 4600 may not be the end.
If you hold spot gold, don't get off lightly. Fluctuations above 4500 are inevitable, but the trend is intact.
Are your gold positions still open? Grayscale has changed its stance: BTC may have bottomed, this weekly candle is key
Last night, Grayscale posted on X, changing its tone.
Previously, the market consensus was "another crash to the bottom in Q4 2026," but now Grayscale says: this week's rally might be the cycle turning point.
The logic is twofold:
1. Historically, bull-bear retracements usually bottom out after about an 80% drop; this cycle only retraced from the 126,000 high to around 57,000, a drop of about 50%, which is shallower than all previous cycles;
2. Since August 19, a three-day surge of over 21%, with the weekly candle closing up about 22%, wiped out $2.7 billion from the shorts. The short-term holder cost zone (68,500) and the real market average price (75,800) are being reclaimed.
But don't get carried away—Glassnode is still cautious: the realized profit-loss ratio is 0.75, still far from the "seller exhaustion" level of 0.5, Coinbase premium remains negative, and until spot buying fully returns, this should be seen as a "strong rebound during bottom consolidation," not a signal to blindly rush in.
What to watch on the charts:
• Whether the weekly close can hold above the 76,000–78,000 range (this rally's high + upper bound of short-term holder cost)
• If the pullback doesn't break below 68,000–70,000, there is still buying support
• If it truly breaks below 64,000, Grayscale's "bottom" needs to be re-evaluated
Personally, I lean towards: the bottom pattern is flatter than previous cycles, but "bottoming" does not mean "immediate main rise," sideways movement for several months in between is normal. 3,837,000 TRUMP ($9.33 million) was transferred from the TRUMP token team address 1 hour ago, routed through BitGo, and then entered OKX.
Address: 2RH6rUTPBJ9rUDPpuV9b8z1YL56k1tYU6Uk5ZoaEFFSK$ETH $DOGE $FF 📣📣📣 Trump's portfolio adjustment signals a defensive stance, crypto community awaits the macro shoe to drop
Documents disclosed on August 22 show that Trump made large-scale sales of Meta, Motorola in June, switching equivalent amounts into traditional value stocks like Berkshire Hathaway, Visa, and Mastercard. The total monthly transaction volume reached $260 million, with net purchases exceeding $49 million.
This is not an ordinary portfolio adjustment but an early bet on a macro signal.
Trump's selling of tech growth stocks and embracing financial blue chips and insurance giants clearly signals caution toward a "high valuation + high interest rate" environment. Berkshire holds massive cash reserves, while Visa and Mastercard benefit from consumer resilience—he is betting on cash flow dominance under a soft economic landing rather than a rate cut frenzy.
What does this mean for the crypto space?
Short-term bearish: If traditional funds shift to defense and risk appetite contracts, BTC as a high-beta asset may face liquidity withdrawal. Pressure on tech stocks often drags down crypto market sentiment.
But the long-term is more subtle: If Trump worries about dollar credit or fiscal deficits, Bitcoin is one of the hedging tools—though he has not directly bought it. His conservative choices remind us that big money never bets one-sided before the shoe drops.
Before Friday, don’t be swept away by the "short squeeze" narrative. Follow Trump’s discipline—staggered moves, hedging, and holding cash. Wait for macro clarity before deciding direction. Survive first, then wait for crypto’s "Berkshire moment" $BTC has been holding steady at 77000, but the upward momentum is weakening.
BTC has dropped from 79000 to around 77000. The psychological barrier at $80,000 is within reach, but three attempts have failed to break above it. A whale has placed sell orders near 78000, and above 78000 is the top area of the large bullish candle from August 21. In the past 24 hours, $1.238 billion worth of positions were liquidated, with longs liquidated for $742 million. A week ago, shorts were liquidated for $3 billion, and a week later longs have repaid $700 million. Neither side has escaped.
An anonymous whale sold a total of 7700 BTC over three days, about $576 million. Meanwhile, a whale who previously opened a $102 million BTC short position added 1010 BTC three times this morning, increasing holdings to 1792 BTC, with an average entry price of $63,999 and an unrealized profit of $335,000. At the same price, some are selling while others are shorting.
Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.9 billion, and spot Ethereum ETFs had a net inflow of $697 million, totaling $2.6 billion, marking the strongest weekly performance since October 2025. However, the price repeatedly faced resistance near 78000, indicating that some are using ETF liquidity to sell off.
There are two types of sideways movement—accumulation and turnover. Accumulation means chips are concentrating, preparing for the next move. Turnover means some are selling, some are buying, but no one is willing to push higher. Currently, it looks more like the latter—shorts have mostly been cleared, whales have sell orders at 78000, and the force pushing the price up is weakening.
At this level, sideways movement may last longer than a breakout. ETH surges 29%, blowing 260 million dollars—are exchanges running out of coins? Let's talk about the underlying logic behind this rally. Brothers, have a great weekend! The feeling of watching the market these past two days can be summed up in one word: satisfying, but also accompanied by a hint of caution. 📈 As you can see, when BTC repeatedly rubbed around the $80,000 mark, ETH quietly surged, surging nearly 30% in the past seven days to reach $2,546. Coinglass's data is very clear: in total network liquidations, ETH short sellers lost over $260 million. Watching those short-selling friends get repeatedly scrutinized, I can only say: when facing a bull market trend, never rush to catch a flying knife. 🔪 Many fans are asking, why is ETH so powerful? In fact, from the perspective of capital and chip structure, the logic is very clear. First is Wall Street's "scoop of goods" speed. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw cumulative net inflows of nearly $700 million this week, the highest since last October. Institutional funds continue to buy in, which is the strongest confidence. 💰 Secondly, a more critical detail is that "the exchange has no tokens." From June to mid-August, the amount of ETH held on exchanges dropped by about 15%, leaving only 6.54 million tokens. Meanwhile, more than 42 million ETH are firmly locked in the staking network. The number of truly freely circulating "active coins" on the market has dropped significantly. Against the backdrop of sustained net ETF inflows, the chip tightening effect is amplified, and even a slight amount of buying can push prices up. This is actually a sign that the chip structure is extremely healthy. 🔒 Besides the market surface, if we raise our perspective,$BTC $ETH Is the bull market really here?
Recently, BTC and ETH have surged rapidly. Many believe a major bull market is coming, but for now, it can only be considered a strong rebound, not a definitive start of a bull market.
There are several practical reasons for this rise: the market expects the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later, improving dollar liquidity; institutional ETF funds continue to flow in; additionally, many short positions had accumulated previously, and as prices surged, shorts were forced to cover, pushing prices even higher—this is a short squeeze. ETH has followed BTC closely, with even stronger gains, also driven by ETF policy expectations.
However, a bull market is not defined by a few days of gains. A true bull market requires a continuous influx of new external capital, not just a short-term rally driven by short covering. Market sentiment has just shifted from panic to neutral and has not yet reached a stage of widespread euphoria. There are still many uncertainties ahead: if U.S. inflation rebounds and rate cuts are delayed, the market could easily fall again; if regulations bring more negative news, prices will be directly suppressed.
Historically, the crypto market often experiences "false bull markets," where a sharp rise is followed by a drop back down. We are currently in a recovery phase after a bottom consolidation, showing positive signals but the confirmation process is not complete. Don’t get carried away by short-term surges; high leverage carries great risk, and the market can experience significant corrections at any time.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX Many altcoins experienced a collective sharp drop yesterday afternoon, with some targets seeing a short-term pullback of 20-30% directly.
But in my judgment, the main theme of this round of the market has not ended because of this. #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
This round of crash looks more like a concentrated leverage liquidation after continuous rallies.
Recently, BTC surged close to 79,000, the market kept squeezing shorts, and large-scale leverage liquidations have occurred. The altcoin sector attracted a lot of short-term speculative funds, and leverage positions have also piled up to very high levels. A quick market drop wipes out the long positions that chased the highs, which is a common shakeout method during a bull market phase.
The macro-level support logic still holds. BTC has risen over 20% this week overall, spot ETF funds are flowing back, and overseas regulatory attitudes and liquidity expectations have significantly improved compared to before. A single intraday flash crash is not enough to directly reverse the major trend.
Therefore, I will not be swayed by this sharp drop to turn fully bearish.
As long as $BTC can hold the current high-level range, after this violent reshuffle in altcoins, there is still the possibility of a second round of the market. Fundamentally solid targets will be the first to complete repair and rebound. $BTC Is Bitcoin bullish or bearish?
Bitcoin is currently neither "bullish" nor "purely bearish"; it is in the "late bear market + fake bull rebound + 74K–78K range squeeze."
Those calling it bullish are looking at the short squeeze from August 19, when it rose from 64K to 78K, gaining over 20% in three days;
Those calling it bearish focus on the 54% retracement from the October 2025 peak of 126K, breaking below the short-term holder cost line, with Glassnode judging it as the "capitulation bottoming phase."
The truth is: there has been a rebound, but no confirmed reversal.
Let's straighten the timeline:
October 2025: BTC peaks at $126,198
July 2026: drops to around 57K, down 54% from the peak, a typical bear market retracement
August 19: still hovering at 64K, with on-chain short-term holder cost line at 68.5K and real market average at 75.8K pressing overhead; Glassnode calls this the "capitulation phase"
August 19–21: US Treasury extends long-term debt repurchase + Trump gives positive signals + crowded shorts lead to a three-day short squeeze pushing above 78K, with $1.149 billion liquidated in 24 hours, total liquidations $1.321 billion
August 22–23: the upper wick at 78K is rejected, 74K holds, 78K can't be surpassed — a classic range consolidation
So how to define bull or bear?
By traditional definition (retracement >20% from peak and trend break): bear market, ongoing for over 10 months.
By bullish narrative (daily price above 120/200-day moving averages, weekly above 20-week MA, institutional ETF inflows): attempting a bear market bottom reversal. Yi Lihua says "bear trend is over," but Sun Wei and Glassnode are skeptical — volume hasn't expanded, Coinbase premium remains negative, this is just a partial rebound during bottoming.
Three hard indicators to judge for yourself, don't just listen to hype:
Price structure: weekly highs and lows must rise to be bullish; currently, it's just a rebound from 57K, 78K is far below the previous high of 126K, less than half, so it's a bear market wave B rebound.
On-chain cost: price below short-term holder cost (68.5K) is accumulation; price firmly above 75.8K real average is needed to talk about bull return.
Capital nature: August ETF inflows (net $854 million in one week) exist, but Coinbase premium hasn't turned positive sustainably — real US spot demand hasn't taken over, leverage short squeeze is significant.
In summary:
A bull market means "rising and not falling back"; currently, BTC is "pushed up and sold off, dropped and bought" — this is a bottom, not a bull market.
74K is the bulls' lifeline, 78K is the bears' defense line; break above 80K with weekly close stable, then we can talk bull return; break below 64K, the bear market tail will strike again. $BTC After a rapid rise, the crypto market has entered a phase of correction and digestion. $BTC has fallen back to around $77,100, while $ETH has seen a relatively larger correction, currently hovering around $2,420. What really deserves attention is not the red candlesticks, but the beginning of divergence within the market. $BTC's performance is clearly more resilient than $ETH, indicating that current capital may be prioritizing liquidity and more institutional involvement assets. Meanwhile, this week the US spot BTC and ETH ETFs recorded a combined net inflow of about $2.6 billion, making it one of the strongest weekly inflows since October last year. More importantly, on August 21, BTC spot ETFs still recorded about $307 million in net inflows, indicating that institutional funds did not fully exit the market during the high-price volatility. Hidden signal: If $BTC can hold the $74,000–$75,000 range while $ETH and some altcoins continue to perform weakly, the market may not be entering a full-blown decline but rather a more obvious selective rally. 🔥 The next phase may not be "all coins rising together." Capital may be more concentrated in $BTC, highly liquid large-cap assets and sectors with clear capital inflows. The market's rhythm is changing. The most important thing now is not blind bullish or bearish but to observe where funds are actually flowing. #BTC #ETH #Bitcoin breaks through $77,000, ETF funds determine the substance of the movement. More important than the apparent rate of increase is the fact that the source of the funds supporting this rally has changed. About $1.61 billion saw a net inflow into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF from Monday to Thursday, with about $606 million flowing in just on Thursday alone. This is the largest daily net inflow since May. During the same period, Bitcoin rose more than 20% for the week, surpassing $77,000. More significant structural change is that, rather than the price increase itself, the main supply-demand driver supporting the rise is institutional spot demand rather than leverage chasing. This rally is different in nature from the short squeeze-type rally driven by forced liquidations in the derivatives market. Net ETF inflows lead to spot buying demand rather than arbitrage capital, meaning buying positions are not vulnerable to funding costs. Therefore, even if a short-term correction occurs, the likelihood of triggering a chain of leverage liquidations is relatively low. However, after a surge of more than 20%, the profits #BTC continues its strength, can the capital flow sustain? #BTC continues its strength, can the capital flow sustain? #ETF has seen capital inflow for five consecutive days, supporting the market bottom, but don't blindly chase the highs📊
BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of $307 million yesterday, maintaining capital inflow for five consecutive trading days.
Single-day data has limited persuasiveness, but against the backdrop of this rapid rebound and improving market sentiment, the signal is clear: price increases have not scared off external capital, and institutions continue to accumulate chips.
BlackRock IBIT attracted $239 million in a single day, still the main force of capital inflow; Fidelity FBTC saw an inflow of $30.1885 million.
Currently, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $96.069 billion, with a historical cumulative net inflow exceeding $53.706 billion. ETFs are no longer just a narrative concept; they are genuinely changing BTC's supply and demand structure and influencing medium- to long-term market expectations.
However, continuous capital inflow does not mean you can blindly chase short-term price increases.
The recent market rally has been very rapid. After BTC strengthened, capital quickly flowed into mainstream and high-volatility coins, causing market heat to soar. FOMO sentiment easily triggers a large number of follow-up buy orders.
ETF buying can support major market moves but cannot immediately absorb the short-term accumulated overbought chips. Even with continuous fundamental positives, mid-term fluctuations and phased pullbacks can still occur at any time.
In my view, this round of continuous inflows is more a proof of mid-term market confidence recovery, not a guarantee that prices will immediately surge further.
In a truly strong trend, pullbacks are part of chip rotation and also a window for new capital to enter; if support during pullbacks fails to hold, even the best data cannot withstand the selling pressure from concentrated short-term profit-taking.
You can remain optimistic mid-term but avoid chasing every bullish candle with full leverage. The bull market is not about who rushes up fastest but about whether you can time the rhythm correctly and survive the entire cycle.
$BTC
#BTC continues its strength, can the capital flow sustain?$BTC Many traders in the market are discussing whether 82000 will become the next key resistance level for Bitcoin?
This price roughly corresponds to the previous stage high in April, which is a zone with concentrated prior holdings and is naturally seen as a potential upward obstacle.
From noon to night yesterday, I continuously tracked the order book depth data on Coinbase, observing the distribution of liquidity orders on the market. During most trading sessions, there were two price levels with considerable clusters of order placements, located at 79000 and 80000 respectively.
After the bulls broke through the 79000 level, the market pulled back, and the current price has stabilized above the 77000 range.
Currently on the Coinbase platform, large orders are heavily concentrated around the 80000 level; looking further up, the next obvious selling pressure cluster jumps directly to 88000, with relatively sparse orders in the intermediate range.
The macro dimension should not be ignored either. The US PCE inflation data to be released next Wednesday requires close attention.
As a key inflation indicator referenced by the Federal Reserve, the strength of the data will directly affect market expectations for the pace of rate cuts, thereby providing directional catalysts for crypto assets. Be cautious of sharp market fluctuations around the data release. #BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 $BTC $ETH BTC is hovering around 77K, but what really keeps people awake isn't the price—it's the sudden revival of the altcoins with that momentum. Have you noticed that the most vulnerable link in recent days is actually the one that seems the most stable? Let's start with the facts. After BTC touched 79.5K, it pulled back and is now breathing close to 77.2K. ETH is clearly holding up near 2.42K, clearly outperforming the market. Funds haven't left, just shifted their stance—from "preserving life" to "seeking excitement." Names like BICO, OKB, BNB have reappeared on the gainers' charts, with the exchange sector especially eye-catching. Here's a overlooked signal: when BTC repeatedly tested below 80K, the counterfeit didn't lose heart but instead absorbed the selling pressure. This shows that market sentiment is not panic, but "waiting for a reason." Everyone is waiting for BTC to respond, but their positions have quietly shifted toward high beta. What I see is the second layer: sentiment recovery happens earlier than price correction. ETF inflows, a weaker dollar, expectations of policy easing—these have long been priced in. What is truly changing is the shape of risk appetite—from "only daring to touch BTC" to "willing to give ETH and high-quality coins a little patience." This spread usually doesn't end in a day, but it also means that if BTC fails to break 80K again, the first to cash back won't be BTC, but this batch of the most rising altcoins will be the ones to cash back. The bullish path is clear: BTC holds at 76.5K, ETH continues to outperform, and the knockoff round