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BTC bottom confirmation continues to strengthen.
The most important thing today is not that BTC is still at 77K, but that the whale anomaly that made me most cautious yesterday has clearly been fixed:
* 1k–10k BTC saw a single-day drop of -32,706 BTC yesterday
* Today it has recovered to a single-day +6,342 BTC
* 7-day +19,139 BTC
* 30-day +23,056 BTC.
At the same time:
* Latest BTC daily price $77,100.40
* 200WMA $64,204.26
* BTC above 200WMA by +20.09%
* Newhedge MVRV-Z 0.82.
So today I raise the subjective probability that:
"60–64K is already the final bottom area for this cycle" to about 90%.
And:
"52–55K will still see one last capitulation" probability is further compressed to about 2%–4%.
From now on, unless BTC falls back below the entire support chain of 67K→64K→60K, 52–55K should no longer be considered the baseline scenario.
The most reasonable framework for the current market has shifted from:
"Will BTC go to find the bottom again?"
to:
"After the 60–64K bottom has formed, will this recovery first retest around 70K, or directly push towards 80–85K?"截至2026年8月23日，加密市场资金面呈现"机构ETF强势回补 + 稳定币弹药未大幅扩张 + 链上鲸鱼高位派发"的三重分化格局。简单说：这波反弹有真实的机构资金确认，但并非全市场大水漫灌，更像是空头挤压后的"回补式入场"。 🏦 机构端：现货ETF单周净流入26亿美元，创10个月新高 这是本周最硬的资金信号。 - BTC ETF：8月17-21日单周净流入19亿美元，为2025年10月10日当周以来最高，累计净流入达537亿美元；其中8月20日单日流入6.06亿美元，全周五个交易日连续净流入 - ETH ETF：同周净流入6.972亿美元，为2025年10月3日当周以来最高，累计净流入122亿美元；8月20日单日2.208亿美元，是203个交易时段以来的最大单日流入 - BTC+ETH合计：26亿美元，创2025年10月以来最高单周净流入，扭转了前一周合计净流出3.92亿美元的弱势 - 山寨ETF跟涨：XRP ETF周流入3978万美元（交易量创纪录），SOL ETF流入2834万美元（连续8周净流入），Chainlink流入1335万美元，Hyperliquid流入389万美元推高Zero-threshold configuration for US stocks? ACO native DEX's journey of RWA real-world asset tokenization 📈
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#RWA #USStockTokens #ACO #DEX #DeFi The driving logic behind this round of Bitcoin's rise:
The U.S. Treasury is conducting large-scale buybacks of U.S. debt, releasing market liquidity, weakening the dollar, which benefits crypto risk assets.
The U.S. has declared an end to the regulatory war on the crypto industry and is promoting crypto legislation; the SEC has introduced new regulations, easing policies for crypto project financing.
The scale of short liquidations has hit a historic record, with extremely high single-day clearing volume; short covering buy orders further push prices up.
Capital inflow: BTC ETFs have had net inflows for 4 consecutive days, with a single-day inflow of $606 million, the highest in three months.
Technical aspects:
Weekly chart shows a volume-increasing bullish candle, breaking through the long-term downtrend line, representing a structural breakout; MACD shows a bullish crossover underwater after a bottom divergence, indicating the start of a bullish trend.
Daily chart shows 5 consecutive bullish candles with increasing volume and large K-lines; key resistance: 82,500, the previous consolidation platform high, likely an important turning point for this rebound; this level requires confirmation from price signals such as long upper shadows or breakdowns, so do not prematurely guess the top to short.
On-chain signals:
Price has stabilized above the short-term holder cost red line, a right-side confirmation signal for bull-bear switching; market explicit demand 30-day data has turned green for the first time since February. The current rise is mainly driven by futures contract funds; retail investors have not yet entered on a large scale and are only in the preparation phase. It can only be said there is a probability of entering the early stage of a bull market, but a major bull market cannot be directly confirmed.
Trading strategy:
It is not recommended to chase longs at high levels; chasing longs in an overbought state is outside the trading framework. Wait for a pullback and gap fill before considering low-entry long positions. Short conditions: when price reaches around 82,500 and reversal signals such as breakdowns or long upper shadows appear, or a 4-hour bearish divergence occurs, then consider shorting. Do not try to catch the top prematurely.
$BTC $ETH On the order book, continuous main buy orders appear below 0.2351. On-chain tracking shows three newly created addresses have withdrawn tokens in batches from 0.226 to 0.234 over the past six hours. Exchange balances have decreased net, perpetual contract positions have simultaneously risen, but the funding rate remains neutral to slightly negative. This is not the rhythm of retail investors rushing to catch a rebound; the bears have set a thick wall between 0.2375 and 0.2390, with sell orders repeatedly being dismantled, indicating that some capital does not want the price to stay low for too long. I just turned my electric bike into the old neighborhood parking shed, squatting by the charging pile to check the flow paths of giant whale addresses. The dog next door barked, making my hand shake, and my phone case hit the bike handle directly. From the structure, 0.2310 is the lower edge of today's intensive accumulation zone; as long as it holds, the higher low is valid.
Live trading plan: At the current price near 0.2351, first establish 20% of the base position, then add 10% on a pullback to 0.2280–0.2310. Set the stop loss below 0.2200; exit immediately if broken without resistance. First take profit at 0.2490 by reducing half the position, and hold the rest targeting around 0.2620.
$MAGMA
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
@OKX星球 This week's ETF data: Bitcoin $1.9 billion, a historic level of inflows!
Ethereum net inflow of $697 million in a single week.
This is the largest weekly inflow for ETH since October 2025.
The entire crypto market saw a total net inflow of $2.6 billion this week, hitting a new high since last October. The trading volume of two types of ETFs surged from $6.9 billion to $22.1 billion, more than tripling.
The previous week still had a net outflow of $392 million. In just one week, the direction completely reversed.
But what really excites me is not the total amount — it's the structure.
For the past six months, Ethereum has been living in Bitcoin's shadow.
BTC ETFs have attracted hundreds of billions, while ETH ETFs played a supporting role. The market even seriously started discussing a painful question: "Are institutions no longer interested in ETH?"
After all, in the past six months, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has been declining steadily, making people question everything.
But this week's data slapped that notion in the face.
Bitcoin $1.9 billion VS Ethereum $697 million — the ratio is close to 3:1.
This is not the 2024 script of "BTC eating the meat, ETH drinking the soup." This is ETH attracting capital at its own pace.
There are several signals you must understand:
First, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is building a mid-term bottom.
As of August 21, the ETH/BTC rate has rebounded to around 0.031, returning to the level seen in April this year. ETH price rose about 25% in a week, breaking through $2,300.
This is not a "dead cat bounce." This is a trend recovery supported by institutional funds.
Second, institutions' allocation demand for "smart contract platforms" remains strong.
ETH's compliance ranks just behind BTC. Under the SEC regulatory framework, ETH is the path of least resistance for institutional funds allocating to "non-BTC crypto assets."
BlackRock's ETHA single-day net inflow hit a record $173 million, with a total historical net inflow reaching $12 billion.
BlackRock is telling you with real money: ETH is not a "copycat," it is a "strategic allocation."
Third, and most crucial point —
This $697 million is not a "passive inflow" following BTC.
It emerged independently while BTC is already strong.
What does this mean? It means institutional confidence is "expanding," not "seeking shelter."
Think about the 8-week net outflow from May to July, with a total of $8.26 billion withdrawn from the crypto market.
What were institutions doing then? They were fleeing.
And now? After the "1011 flash crash" in early August, the market underwent intense deleveraging. The previous week still saw net outflows, but this week reversed direction with a $3 billion inflow.
Institutions are rebuilding positions at the low levels after the flash crash.
And this time, ETH was not left behind.
Operationally, I want to say something straightforward —
If you only focus on BTC, you might miss ETH's catch-up opportunity.
Institutional funds never bet on a single asset; they allocate in combinations.
BTC as the base position, ETH for volatility — this is the standard institutional crypto allocation model.
When ETH starts independently attracting capital, it shows institutional confidence is shifting from "risk aversion" to "expansion."
And the first step of expansion is always allocating ETH.
History doesn't simply repeat, but it often rhymes.
In 2020, institutions bought BTC first, then ETH followed, then the altcoin season exploded.
In 2026, the script might be replaying.
Once BTC market dominance peaks and ETH/BTC stabilizes — that is the "green light signal" for altcoin season to start.
And this $697 million might be the first light turning on.
$BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 BTC is currently priced around $77,000, down about 1.5% in the last 24 hours.
It briefly dropped below $77,000 early this morning, hitting a low of $76,996.
On Thursday, it peaked at $79,455, just shy of $80,000, then started to pull back.
It has risen more than 20% over the week, climbing from $62,000 to $79,000, a $17,000 increase in five days.
After such a rise, a breather is natural.
The most direct trigger for this pullback is a mysterious whale continuously selling off.
Over the past three days, a total of 7,700 BTC have been sold, worth about $576.6 million, with 2,700 BTC sold today alone, approximately $211.8 million.
Someone chose to reduce their position just before the $80,000 mark.
The presence of such a large sell order at this level indicates that some believe the short-term rally has peaked. $BTC $PUMP I'm bullish. The ratio of institutional to retail investors is 1.51x, with the density of long positions among large holders more than half higher than that of retail investors. This isn't retail investors chasing hard; it's the big holders holding the bags — so follow the direction of the big holders. If it maintains a bullish structure over the next 24 hours, 0.004656 will turn into support rather than resistance. If the pullback doesn't break it, the base will keep rising. The big holders have already placed their bets, while retail investors are still hesitating at the door. Whose hand to watch? The data has already been written.In the early morning of August 23, South Korea's Upbit exchange quoted Bitcoin at 105.56 million KRW, the global average price was 106.89 million KRW, with a price difference of -1.33 million KRW, and a reverse kimchi premium of -1.25%.
The reverse kimchi premiums for Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Sui also all fell within the range of -0.8% to -1.2%.
Last week, when Bitcoin rose from 62,000 to 79,000, Korean retail investors did not chase but instead sold at a discount.
At 7:55 AM on August 23, Bitcoin was at $77,066, with a 22.17% increase over the past week.
The 82,000 to 83,000 range is the most important recent resistance zone; only a valid breakout can open the upward space toward 90,000.
In the past three days, the crypto market liquidated over $4 billion in leveraged positions: on the 21st, short liquidations were $1.552 billion; on the 22nd, both longs and shorts liquidated $1.675 billion; on the 23rd, long-only liquidations were $721 million.
The three days completed a full cycle of short liquidations, long-short hedging, and long unilateral harvesting.
210,000 people were liquidated.
If BTC breaks above $81,148, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream platforms will reach $1.661 billion; if it falls below $73,534, the long liquidation intensity will reach $1.236 billion. Both sides have their chips on the table; whoever moves first will be the first to be eliminated.
$BTC On the morning of August 23, well-known trader Killa posted a tweet: "The bottom of Bitcoin has formed, and the price has climbed back above the short-term holder cost line."
He previously said at BTC 65,000: "Once it climbs back above 67,400 and trades in the mid-75,000 range while holding the short-term holder cost line, the bottom is formed."
The core catalyst driving this rebound is Scott Baesent's Treasury repo policy.
On the 19th, the U.S. Treasury announced doubling the size of long-term Treasury repos from 2 billion per transaction to at least 4 billion.
The market immediately interpreted this as "the Treasury starting to inject liquidity," although Baesent himself said the market "overreacted a bit," as the repo effect only lasted one day before long-term bond yields rebounded.
But the crypto market focuses on the direction—the Treasury has started injecting liquidity into the market. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.80 on August 21, its lowest in nearly 100 days.
At the same time, the SEC introduced Regulation Crypto Assets, establishing two compliant financing channels for crypto projects. $BTC In the early hours of August 23, the whale address 3NVeXm deposited 2,555 BTC into an exchange, worth approximately $197 million.
Over the past three days, this mysterious whale has sold a total of 7,700 BTC, with a total value of about $576 million.
When BTC surged near 79,000, some took the initiative to reduce their positions before the key level, feeling that this short-term rally had peaked.
Another whale opened a long position of 1,000 BTC and 10,000 ETH on Hyperliquid 47 days ago, currently floating profits of $14.8 million and $6.58 million respectively, with a total position value of about $101.35 million. A 47-day holding period is quite rare in Hyperliquid's high-leverage ecosystem, especially since this address still maintains 40x leverage on BTC and 20x on ETH. Some are selling before 80,000, while others precisely built positions two months ago and have not moved. At the same price, different judgments are made, each voting with their positions. Some exit before the key level, while others hold continuously over a two-month cycle. The direction is unclear, but the ownership of the chips is changing.
$BTC #财报观察员: Has POPMART's growth shifted gears, and can multiple IPs take over?
Some have put real money and trust into it. Wang Ning announced a buyback of no less than 2 billion and no more than 5 billion in the next 6 months (China Securities Journal); Duan Yongping has been increasing his holdings in batches since April, now holding 7.65%, making him the second largest shareholder (Sina Finance). Industrial capital is increasing positions as the stock price falls, showing a clear attitude.
Facing the decline, he said, "Why did it fall so much? I don't believe it," and "As a shareholder, I think it's quite good," judging that the business model has been proven, and the average annual profit for the next 10-20 years will not be lower than the current level. Long-term capital expresses its stance through position size, which is more concrete than research reports. If the buyback is executed properly, it can also hedge against stock price fluctuations, improve earnings per share, and send a signal to the market that management believes the stock price is undervalued.
But big money looks at 10-20 years, while retail investors look at the next quarter; you can't simply copy their moves. At 149 HKD and a PE of 13 times, industrial capital doesn't think it's expensive, but short-term it may still be dragged down by sentiment and the broader market. Before copying, confirm your own holding period; don't use short-term funds to replicate long-term positions.
Capital moves provide a reference for "where the bottom is," not a guarantee of "immediate rise." Buybacks plus Duan Yongping's increased holdings form psychological support, but a performance inflection point is the necessary condition for sustained stock price increases. The buying price of industrial capital may not be the lowest price; the bottom range and the lowest point are always two different things (market page $POPMART ).
$POPMART 🔥BTC is not in a "full lock-up," old money has quietly started distributing near the 78K level $BTC
Many are still shouting "long-term holders hold tight, supply is tightening" in this cycle, but when overlaying several on-chain data points from mid-August, chips are quietly changing hands:
Whale continuous selling pressure: From 8/20 to 8/22, a mysterious whale sold about 7,700 BTC (approximately $576 million) over three consecutive days, directly triggering BTC's pullback after hitting 79,500.
Exchange reserves rising: Binance's BTC reserves climbed to about 667,500 in mid-August, a 6-month high, breaking a two-year downtrend; simultaneously, futures open interest plus exchange reserves rose together, which some analysts call a "$48B leverage trap."
LTH (Long-Term Holder) data conflict: VanEck data shows a net decrease of 356,000 long-term holders in the past 30 days, dropping below 60% share; however, CryptoQuant data indicates LTH supply at 16.35M remains close to historical highs, with a cost basis of 49,400 and 78 days in a low-risk zone.
→ A more reliable interpretation is: this is not a full distribution, but "old money with high profits is doing defensive rebalancing," not panic selling, yet it creates real selling pressure around the 78K–80K resistance level. BTC, 77K 달러 재진입 이후 수급 질이 바뀌고 있는가 미국 국채 매입 계획이 위험자산 포지션을 끌어올릴 수 있는가? BTC가 77K 달러 부근을 회복했고 ETH는 2.4K 달러에 근접했다. 이번 상승의 배경에는 미국 재무부의 국채 매입 계획이 유동성 환경을 개선할 것이라는 기대와 달러 약세, 국채 금리 부담 완화가 자리한다. 특히 주목할 지점은 현물 BTC ETF로 약 16.1억 달러가 순유입됐고, 숏 청산 규모가 43억 달러를 넘어섰다는 사실이다. 이는 시장이 방향성을 결정할 때 수급의 질이 이전과 달라졌음을 보여주는 신호다. 이번 흐름은 단순 반등이 아닌, 숏 포지션 강제 청산과 ETF 순유입이 동시에 발생한 구조적 변화다. ETF 자금은 장기 보유 성향이 강하고, 숏 청산은 상승 압력을 기계적으로 강화한다. 이 두 요소가 겹치면 BTC가 단기 고점을 돌파할 때 추가 상승 동력이 만들어질 수 있다. 반대로 말하면, 이 상승이 지속되려면 ETF 유입이 멈추지 않고, 금리와 달With such big ambitions, what does UniSat rely on to sustain it? The previous article discussed UniSat's ambitions. Wallets, minting, trading, data, and even Fractal—this guy isn't satisfied with just one wallet—he wants to touch almost every possible opportunity. The plate is indeed large. But in the crypto world, there are quite a few projects that want to do everything and end up doing nothing. UniSat dares to spread its stall like this—what cards does it hold? Looking back at its path over the years, I was reminded of an old saying: Build high walls, stockpile grain, and slowly claim kingship. This sentence is recorded in the History of Ming, but whether it was Zhu Sheng's verbatim words from back then remains disputed in history. However, Zhu Yuanzhang did indeed take this path at the time. Hold your ground first, build up your strength slowly, and don't rush to take the boss when the time comes. On UniSat, it actually looks quite similar. Let's start with building high walls. UniSat originally built on wallets and inscriptions, and later kept adding more to it. Looking at assets, minting, trading—all kinds of previously troublesome operations are all made simpler. Retail investors actually don't want to study so many rules. Whether you can use it, whether it's troublesome, whether the fees are expensive, and whether it's safe to store assets in it—all depend on these factors. UniSat stuffs all these things into one place, so users get comfortable with it and naturally don't bother to switch. That's its wall. It's not some advanced tech; to put it bluntly, it's just easy to use, and you get used to it. Of course, making too much can be problematic. Every function needs maintenance and costs people and money. The feature list looks impressive but doesn't mean so[Cycle Analysis] Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Back? Don't Be Overly Optimistic! The Bottoms in September and December Are Still Ahead!
Although Bitcoin has recently shown a very strong trend and real money continues to flow in, blindly chasing highs is still unwise. Combining my self-made valuation model with the Hurst cycle theory, the current response strategy and logic are as follows:
1. Long-term Operation Approach: Strictly Follow the Valuation Range
Previously, based on the 200-week moving average self-made valuation range chart, Bitcoin has rebounded from the "very cheap zone" to the "cheap zone." See Figure 1.
Current strategy: The price has entered the cheap zone, so I personally pause buying in batches (previously at 63,000, I clearly advised bottom-fishing Bitcoin and Ethereum in the group).
Future plan: If the market offers a pullback opportunity to return to the very cheap zone, continue bottom-fishing in batches; start taking profits in batches when rebounding to the reasonable zone; clear positions when reaching the expensive and very expensive zones.
Dollar-cost averaging suggestion: Long-term investors can continue dollar-cost averaging as planned, synchronizing operations for Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin.
2. Cycle Model Analysis: Bottoms in September and Year-End Are Still Ahead
The cycle model is not an omniscient view but a scientific trading analysis tool. The Composite Line fitting curve is not the actual price trend but is used to predict the timing of relative highs and lows. The real peaks and bottoms need confirmation when the price crosses above or below the FLD line, so there will be some deviation, but the trend is reference-worthy.
September accumulation window: The fitting curve shows that around September, there will be an overlapping bottom of the 80-day and 40-day cycles. For those who missed the earlier opportunity, September is a key accumulation window (confirmation requires price pullback and standing above the FLD line). See Figure 2.
Is the bear bottom not yet formed?: According to the Hurst cycle, besides the September bottom, there are expected larger cycle bottoms of 20 weeks, 40 weeks, etc., at the end of this year. See Figures 2 and 3. Although it is not yet certain whether the September bottom pullback or the year-end bottom pullback will be deeper, both points are good accumulation nodes for long-term investors. I remain cautious about the claim that the "bear market bottom has already formed." I will open a dedicated post to discuss this when I have time.
3. Short-term Trading Strategy: Avoid Chasing Highs, Short on Rallies
Strong resistance zone: Bitcoin has currently reached the peak position of the 40-day short cycle, combined with the fishfork line resistance, with 78,000–80,000 being a strong resistance band.
Practical operation: Yesterday I posted and announced the strategy in the group—short Bitcoin at 78,200 with a stop loss at 82,500. A pullback is expected, and the price will gradually approach the bottom around late September. Short-term traders must strictly execute take-profit and stop-loss.
For long-term investors, plan bottom-fishing in batches according to the valuation range chart; for swing and short-term traders, follow the trend using technical tools such as large and small cycle peaks and troughs and the fishfork line.
Personal opinion, for reference and discussion only, not constituting trading advice. Complete review of this CORE rebound
This rebound is not a complete reversal; it is a rebound after an oversell: at the end of July, it hit a historical low around 0.0166, then pulled up steadily from the bottom, with a maximum weekly increase close to 35%, which is the continuous large candle you see now.
Why it rose (drivers of the rise)
1. Oversold rebound is the main reason
It had been declining continuously for over half a year, dropping 99% from the high point, with a large amount of trapped positions cutting losses, bottom selling pressure exhausted, so even a slight buying can trigger a big rise.
2. Narrative catalyst: SatPay partnership news
The market is speculating on SatPay's launch and the ecosystem's token buyback expectations. Everyone is betting that the product can bring new demand. This is still sentiment-driven hype from news, without actual revenue realization to support the rally.
3. Short-term bottom-fishing funds entering
Short-term speculative funds are following the trend, pushing the price up.
Biggest risks.
1. The long-term major trend is still a downtrend channel
This is just a rebound within a downtrend, not a trend reversal; the monthly chart is still bearish, and the historical high of 6.47 is extremely far from the current price.
2. Short-term is already near overbought
After continuous rises, RSI is very high, short-term profit-taking pressure is heavy, many who bottom-fished at low levels will sell to take profits once the price reaches a certain point, which could cause a sharp pullback at any time.
3. The positive factors are still just expectations
SatPay and ecosystem buybacks are all future plans. If the implementation progress falls short of expectations, sentiment will quickly retreat, and the market will immediately revert to its original state.
$CORE BofA's Latest Warning: The Real Risk Is Not AI, But Bonds!
In BofA's The Flow Show, the real takeaway isn't "what to go long or short," but a bigger signal:
What the U.S. government fears most right now may not be a stock market crash, but an uncontrollable rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
The core logic of the report is straightforward:
U.S. government debt has surpassed $40 trillion and will continue to issue massive amounts of debt in the coming years.
At the same time, the AI arms race requires massive financing.
The government needs to borrow money, AI giants need to borrow money, resulting in the entire credit market being stuck by long-term interest rates.
That's why BofA calls the 5% yield on 30-year Treasuries the "Maginot Line."
If long-term yields can't be kept down for a long time, the U.S. government's financing costs will rise, and valuations of highly leveraged assets like AI data centers, cloud providers, and private credit will be compressed again.
This is the so-called Bessent vs ABB.
ABB stands for Anything But Bonds, meaning the market is unwilling to buy bonds.
The policy side's job is to prevent capital from completely abandoning bonds by any means.
Dollar swaps, exchange rate interventions, and increased long-term bond repos are essentially all aimed at repairing the fixed income market.
But BofA's judgment is also critical:
These operations may only "cap" yields but may not actually bring yields down.
That's the danger.
If policy can hold the 5% level, risk assets can continue to hold up.
If it can't, market trading logic will shift from "continuing to chase AI" to "deleveraging and avoiding overvalued assets."
U.S. stock investment sites believe the real contradiction now isn't whether AI is in a bubble.
It's whether the U.S. can keep long-term rates down while continuing to issue debt and support the AI arms race.
If the bond market doesn't cooperate, no matter how good the AI stock story is, financing costs will reprice it.
The most important thing going forward isn't whether tech stocks rise, but whether the 30-year Treasury can hold 5%.
This is the real pressure point for global markets.
$META $NVDA $MSFT
#USStocks This is a deeply detailed review that tightly integrates macro liquidity, on-chain chips, and Wyckoff structure. The blogger does not blindly call trades but uses an objective framework to answer the core question: $57,800 has very likely become the true macro bottom of this cycle.
Core logic summary:
• Triple driver resonance: Treasury bond repurchase releases liquidity, SEC regulatory framework shifts from "penalty instead of management" to compliance, and a historic $3.3 billion short squeeze together forged a strong bullish candle breaking through the $73,000 resistance.
• Bottom support established: Over 17.7% of chips have not moved for more than 10 years, long-term holders locked over 16.35 million coins, combined with whales net buying 43,000 BTC in the past 60 days, on-chain supply is extremely tight; the down cycle lasted 317 days, with both time and space adjustments fully completed.
• Wyckoff structure evolution: The market is currently transitioning from phase C to phase D. Due to short-term funding rates being relatively high and a retail long-short ratio of 2.22, there is a need for deleveraging and shakeout.
Subsequent paths and trading strategies:
• Blue path (45%): Shallow pullback to 70,000–70,500 with volume contraction and stabilization, representing the strongest trend and best dip-buying point.
• Yellow path (35%): Pullback to 63,000–63,500 forming a standard W double bottom.
• Red path (20%): Extreme bear trap probing 57,800–58,500, completing a false breakdown followed by a strong rebound.
Key signal:
The watershed for the official start of the bull market is at $83,339 (weekly candle closing firmly confirming the breakout), with subsequent upward targets at $99,787 and $113,000.
Logical, tiered contingency plans, and clear risk control points make this a highly practical trading simulation! 🎯In the past couple of days, the Chinese-language crypto community has suddenly started buzzing with rumors: Trump plans to issue another token on the Robinhood chain, and some have already switched to stablecoins waiting for the market to open in the early morning. But after some research, the biggest feature of this news is—the Chinese-speaking community is very popular, while overseas is basically silent. If Trump really wants to issue new coins, it's impossible for only Chinese X to be celebrating. Truth Social, English-language crypto media, and top KOLs have already started building hype. More importantly, now is simply not a good time. $TRUMP Why was it possible to post back then? Because it was launched on January 17, 2025, three days before the inauguration. At that time, Trump had not yet officially entered the White House, so political risk was low. Now he is the president. The Clarity Act is still being pushed forward, and Republicans are working to package the crypto industry as "American financial innovation." At this point, the president would launch an official meme coin, which was essentially handing over a knife to his opponents. The Democratic Party is not focused on how much money a currency can make, but on whether it will become a president who uses his power to create financial products. Midterm elections are also approaching, and once again with $TRUMP 2.0, the political costs may far outweigh the benefits. Many people only see that in the previous round, someone made money from $TRUMP, but forget the other side: a large number of retail investors bought at high prices, and the entire industry is under a wave of "casino-like" public pressure. So this wave feels more like a FOMO cycle in the Chinese community rather than a major news leak. Trump will continue to embrace crypto, but for now, the smartest move is bigLet's discuss the current market interpretation. This rapid short squeeze rally finally shows signs of slowing down. The first wave of profit-taking caused BTC to pull back 4%, ETH had a maximum pullback of 6.5%, and SOL saw a maximum pullback of 15%. The buying depth for SOL is not as strong as BTC and ETH.
When will the top be reached? The trend is still strongly upward. First, there needs to be a period of sideways consolidation, meaning no more rapid increases—that's the minimum requirement. The weekend's price action has limited reference value; we still need to wait for Monday's opening.
ETH and SOL have both risen about 70% from their recent bottoms and have now reached key resistance levels. There have been false breakouts followed by real declines, which is a sign of a potential top. Those holding spot positions might consider gradually taking profits.
However, the current first pullback only formed a test of a trading support level. In my experience, the first four-hour level drop is often a bear trap. There will likely be another push to new highs before a true decline forms a phase turning point.
Whether this rally ends depends mainly on BTC. Next week is critical since BTC is just a step away from the previous high at 82,800, where there is significant contract liquidity, giving the main players motivation to capture it.
Additionally, we need to watch if ETFs continue to see large net inflows. So, we must patiently wait for the battle between 79,000 and the previous high at 82,800. Only if another breakdown signal appears will it be a good opportunity to exit and short.
Of course, because this rally has changed the entire bottom structure and trend, if there is a 10% pullback opportunity, it is still possible to gradually enter spot buy positions. $BTC $ETH $OKB In just one week, ETH surged nearly 30% like it was on steroids, reaching a high of $2500. If you were the one shorting at the top, right now it probably doesn't feel like trading but participating in a collective charity donation worth $1.1 billion.
1. In the past 24 hours, ETH short liquidations exceeded $1.1 billion. This is not a market recovery; it's essentially a massive slaughter of shorts. This "short squeeze" driven rally is fundamentally shorts being forced to buy back to close positions, pushing the price up. But the problem is: the fuel (shorts) is burned out, and the engine now has to rely on spot and institutional relay.
2. If you think this is just retail traders messing around, you are seriously mistaken. Last week, the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of about $697 million, setting the highest weekly record since 2026. This shows Wall Street's "old money" is no longer watching from the sidelines but is moving real capital. Compared to retail's back-and-forth, institutional funds are heavier and steadier, which is the real confidence behind ETH holding near $2400.
* After touching $2500, it quickly fell back to oscillate around $2400, indicating strong willingness to take profits above. The market now is like an athlete who just finished a marathon, urgently needing to catch a breath around $2400. If it can hold sideways in the next 48 hours, it means institutional buying has absorbed the selling pressure.
* The rapid rise will inevitably bring a bunch of highly leveraged longs. The current risk lies in What the market is most worth discussing recently may not be when BTC will hit a new high again, but whether this round of correction is already close to a phase bottom.
Looking back at previous cycles, Bitcoin often experienced very deep pullbacks from the highs before truly stabilizing; however, this time the correction range has clearly narrowed, and the price has shown strong support at key levels. This indicates that the market structure is indeed changing: long-term funds, spot allocation, and institutional participation all make selling pressure less likely to cause a stampede as before.
That said, I don't quite agree with the idea that a smaller drop means the bottom is 100% confirmed. Historical patterns can be referenced but should not be rigidly applied. What’s more critical now is whether the rebound can continue, whether trading volume can keep up, and whether funds are continuously buying spot or just engaging in short-term contract speculation.
My judgment is that the market has most likely moved out of the most panic-stricken zone, and the bottom is gradually being built, but this does not mean there won’t be a secondary dip later. For ordinary investors, rather than obsessing over guessing the lowest point, it’s more important to manage position size and timing well, and to build positions in batches rather than going all in at once.
The bottom is usually not a precise price but a period during which most people lose patience and even stop watching the market $BTC
(This is only a personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice)BTC 现货 ETF 单日再吞 3,984 枚，ETH 也被买走 7.6 万颗——可价格为什么就是不肯痛快涨？ 你有没有发现，最近盘面像极了那种"明明有人一直在偷偷塞糖，但糖纸就是不拆开"的状态？ 先说清楚，现在处于什么阶段：这不是追涨期，也不是单纯震荡，更像是一场耐心的洗筹博弈。ETF 数据是明牌，机构在借波动慢慢吸。 我昨天盯着这几组数字看了很久： - BTC 流入约 3.07 亿美元，折合 3,984 枚——这个量级，不是散户能凑出来的手笔 - ETH 流入 7.6 万枚，约 1.85 亿美元——比起 BTC，这一笔更值得玩味 - XRP 和 SOL 也有小幅流入，但体量明显是"顺手补仓"的节奏 表面看，是机构在加仓。但市场真正在交易的，其实是另一件事：大家在赌"这些钱进来之后，会不会立刻变成卖压"。 很多人的误区是只看流入金额，却忽略了一个细节——ETF 的买入是锁定的、慢性的，它不会像合约那样瞬间拉爆价格。所以你会看到，数据很漂亮，K 线却很磨人。 我理解到的信号是： - 资金偏好正在往"确定性资产"倾斜，BTC 和 ETH 是首选，山寨只是陪跑 - 买盘在低位承接，但上方抛一辆车最危险的时刻，可能不是屏幕死机，而是事故后全车断电，你明明坐在门边，却找不到那只真正能救命的机械拉手。我觉得，特斯拉这次在中国备案召回近 298 万辆车，表面上修的是标识和软件，真正暴露的却是一笔长期积累的“设计债”：当极简外观把应急功能藏得太深，漂亮就可能与可逃生发生冲突。 市场监管总局 8 月 21 日披露，自 9 月 25 日起，召回范围包括约 97.3 万辆国产 Model 3、195.7 万辆国产 Model Y，以及部分进口 Model 3、Model X 和 Model S，合计 2,975,910 辆。官方给出的原因很具体：车内应急机械拉手与内饰颜色接近，不易识别和操作；严重碰撞导致低压系统失效时，可能妨碍车内人员逃生和外部救援。处理办法是加贴警示标识，并通过 OTA 增加事故后的降窗策略。 我的判断是，这不是一句“软件升级就解决了”可以轻轻带过的问题。OTA 能降低风险，贴纸也能帮助识别，但两者都说明原来的交互在极端场景下不够直觉。消费电子可以把按钮藏进菜单，汽车却必须为断电、浓烟、慌乱和第一次乘坐的人设计。真正的安全不是车主读过说明书，而是陌生人在最糟糕的十秒$BTC
The bull-bear debate is intensifying! At this stage, it is only a rebound, not the start of a bull market
Currently, there is a huge divergence in the market over whether the bear market has completely ended.
Based on market experience and the current capital structure, this rally is just a news-driven rebound; the bear market's final shakeout is not over.
This round of rally relies on sentiment and news-driven short squeezes, not sustained inflows of new funds in the market.
Recently, spot ETF buying has continued to weaken, institutional participation has clearly slowed, and the core support for the market's rise is loosening.
The market never has permanently correct judgments, only rhythms that fit the market conditions.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% AI真正缺的开始不是GPU，而是内存？
Latest news shows that NVIDIA $NVDA has already signaled major customers about price increases, with some AI servers delivered in early 2027 expected to rise by more than 15%, involving Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell systems. This price hike is not just because GPUs are expensive, but because Memory costs are rapidly increasing.
This ties together several recent news items: SK Hynix has allocated huge funds for buybacks, Micron announced a $10 billion investment over the next decade to research next-generation storage, and now storage price increases are starting to impact NVIDIA AI servers.
I think the logic of AI hardware is undergoing some changes.
In the past two years, everyone has been scrambling for GPUs, but as models grow larger and inference demands increase, the importance of HBM and other high-performance memory is also rising. GPUs handle computation, but if data can't be fed in, no matter how expensive the GPU is, it can only wait.
So NVIDIA's price increase is actually two-sided for the industry chain. For memory manufacturers like Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung, it means their bargaining power on storage is strengthening; but for companies like Microsoft and Google that are aggressively building data centers, it also means AI CAPEX is getting more expensive, and in the future, they must generate higher AI revenue to cover these investments.
The boom in storage may not have truly arrived yet The $INTC token expanded to a -0.93% negative premium during the US stock market closure, while the daily RSI dropped to 30.9 in the oversold zone. The current core contradiction lies in the divergence between sentiment-driven sell-offs amid thin liquidity and the billion-dollar subscription support for the underlying stock.
From the perspective of the US stock market linkage, the Nasdaq 100 token only retraced 0.25% over the weekend, indicating that the overall sentiment in the macro equity market has not deteriorated. The $INTC price of $89.23 and the -0.93% negative premium are mainly constrained by light trading in the crypto market over the weekend, causing derivatives to overreact to the underlying stock’s 2.24% drop on Friday.
In terms of driving factors, capital flow at the US stock market open dominates, while the token market’s oversold recovery demand takes a back seat. Technically, the MACD green bars are still expanding and moving averages are in a bearish alignment, but the price is close to the lower Bollinger Band at $88.07, indicating that short-term downward momentum is decreasing.
The trigger condition for a bullish rebound scenario is that after the US stock market opens, capital inflows from billion-dollar subscriptions push the underlying stock to hold the key level. Once the token’s negative premium narrows above zero and the daily RSI returns above 35, the price will test the MA7 resistance zone; failure to break through will end the recovery rally.
The trigger condition for a bearish continuation scenario is that the underlying stock faces a second wave of selling at the open and breaks below the key support at $79.20. If the stock’s decline triggers a token sell-off stampede, the price may continue to break down along the lower Bollinger Band, temporarily invalidating the RSI oversold indicator.
If the US stock market and the tech sector experience a significant correction, the billion-dollar subscription support logic for the underlying stock will be overwhelmed by macro sell pressure, and the token will abandon premium recovery and return directly to a downtrend channel.
In the next 24 hours, focus on the underlying stock’s performance at the $79.20 support level after the US market opens, and whether the token’s -0.93% negative premium can quickly be erased as liquidity recovers.
#美光加码AI存储，十年研发投入100亿美元 #SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？BTC near $77.2K while ETH takes a much larger daily drawdown points to selective de-risking, not a uniform exit from crypto. SOL staying nearly flat reinforces that view, broad beta is not confirming ETH’s weakness.
BTC still looks like the market’s preferred liquidity anchor. With ETH back below $2,500, I would treat a near-term bounce as balance-sheet repair until its relative performance improves.
Just my read, not advice.Some common misconceptions about BTC sentiment
1. Funding rates cannot determine the bottom; during a bear market, they can be negative mid-way, while the bottom shows positive rates.
2. The bottom has no relation to open interest.
3. Both bear market rebounds and bull market starts have optimistic sentiment; sentiment is worthless for judgment except in extreme cases.
4. After chip clearing and selling pressure exhaustion, the bull market is decided by buying demand; any sentiment can trigger a bull market.
5. The bull or bear market is determined by chip structure, not sentiment.
6. The true bottom does not correspond to the lowest fear index because the bottom is born from "numbness" and boredom, not "panic."
Sentiment is noise under non-extreme conditions, lagging and without predictive power; only extreme fear and extreme optimism have reflexive value.
So many people focus on whether others are bullish or bearish, which is indeed meaningless. Trying to use others' sentiment as a contrarian indicator can backfire because sentiment itself cannot represent direction under non-extreme conditions.
Also, stay away from all indicators; they are really useless and will only bring you various misconceptions The US dollar has fallen to a three-month low, ushering in a "weak dollar" window for the crypto market
The US dollar is undergoing a "chronic bleed." On August 19, the US Treasury unexpectedly announced it would at least double the scale of long-term bond repurchases, aiming to suppress long-term yields. Following the announcement, the dollar index dropped nearly 0.9% that day, hitting a roughly three-month low since mid-May, then hovered near 98.70 at a low level.
Behind this weakening is a resonance of four overlapping logics: the Treasury's "money-printing style" repurchase is interpreted by the market as a proactive dilution of dollar credit, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability; July's nonfarm payrolls and CPI both cooled down, lowering the Fed's September rate hike probability to about 30%, weakening interest rate advantages; the decline in long-term yields directly suppresses the attractiveness of dollar assets; expectations of a US economic peak combined with the withdrawal of geopolitical safe-haven buying create a resonance. However, Middle East oil prices reigniting inflation and a nearly 68% expectation of rate hikes before year-end mean the dollar's short-term downside is not without a ceiling.
For the crypto market, a weak dollar has always been a "tailwind" for $BTC and $ETH — a weaker dollar means marginally looser global liquidity, naturally providing valuation repair space for dollar-denominated crypto assets. Coupled with the safe-haven narrative brought by escalating US-Canada trade frictions, BTC's "digital gold" attribute is being repriced, with gold and Bitcoin rising in response.
But the other side of the coin is equally sharp: if the Middle East energy shock continues to push inflation higher, forcing the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance or even hike rates again, the dollar could rebound quickly, at which point crypto assets will face the dual blow of the "weak dollar dividend" fading and risk appetite contracting.
In the short term, the dollar is weak and volatile, and in the medium term, bearish; crypto assets are expected to continue their repair rally during the weak dollar window. However, caution is needed against an inflation rebound exceeding expectations triggering policy shifts. Operationally, position management remains a priority, and chasing highs is not advisable.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Triple forces driving the market! Entering a critical consolidation window after a big surge
This round of rally is not simply driven by leverage, but a triple resonance of macroeconomic benefits + short squeeze + institutional spot funds:
US Treasury repo scale expansion effectively suppresses long-term interest rates, a weaker dollar drives funds into the crypto sector; combined with a historic $2.7 billion short squeeze, short-term buying power is fully unleashed.
The most critical point: $BTC and $ETH spot ETFs have seen five consecutive days of net inflows, with real institutional takeovers, making this rally far more substantial than previous short-term rebounds.
At the same time, there are short-term risks on the board: large whales continue to reduce BTC holdings at high levels, coupled with pending regulatory rules, so blind chasing at highs is not advisable.
Simple trading references
✅ Buy on dips after support stabilizes, strictly use stop-loss
✅ Light short positions if resistance at highs is not broken
✅ Operate with low leverage throughout to avoid severe volatility
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $BTC聪明钱动态 大盘冲高进入震荡区间，聪明钱地址操作出现明显分化。一部分聪明钱在靠近前高位置分批转出筹码，进行波段止盈；另一批低位埋伏的中型聪明钱地址，借助回调小幅度接币。没有出现统一集体加仓或者砸盘，以高抛低吸做波段为主，并未重仓赌单边新高。长线聪明钱休眠地址筹码基本锁死不动。 ETH聪明钱动态 聪明钱买入力度弱于BTC，大多是小幅度调仓。部分地址把盈利的$BTC仓位，拆分小部分配置ETH，属于资产均衡，并非大举看多ETH。同时有不少地址在反弹时赎回部分ETH，质押池筹码保持稳定，没有大规模解锁出逃。 热点/山寨币种聪明钱动态 对于HYPE、ZEC这类热点脉冲币种，聪明钱大多是短线快进快出，行情火热阶段选择兑现利润，极少高位继续追涨。 面对前期暴跌的过气热点，聪明钱也不会直接抄底，等待企稳信号才会小仓位试错，不会提前埋伏博弈反弹。MEME板块聪明钱参与度很低，大多选择观望，规避情绪炒作风险。 四点精简总结 1、聪明钱当前整体以波段思维运行，不赌单边行情，高位倾向兑现利润。 2、资金优先选择$BTC，对ETH、山寨都是小仓位试探，没有大举进攻信号。 3、热点题材币种，聪#ETH fluctuated after reaching $2500 $ETH This surge is really strong. After nearly a 30% increase in a week, I actually feel it finally starts to look like a "catch-up star."
Previously, $BTC broke out violently first, and ETH was clearly lagging behind for a while, but now after breaking through $2500, the nature of the market has changed a bit: the initial rise had a strong short squeeze component, and now spot ETF funds are starting to take over.
So if I had to choose between increasing positions in BTC or ETH right now, I would actually lean more towards ETH in the short term.
The reason is not that I think ETH's fundamentals suddenly surpass BTC, but that there is a rotation logic in the funds:
BTC breaks out first → market risk appetite recovers → funds look for relatively lagging assets → ETH starts to catch up → then it may spread to altcoins later.
Moreover, if ETF funds continue to flow in, it will add spot buying support to this logic.
Of course, after a 30% rise in a week, chasing $2500 directly, I think the cost-performance ratio is no longer that high. What I want to see now is whether the $2400 area can hold. If the pullback doesn't break it and ETFs continue net inflows, then breaking through $2500 again, this rally will look more like a true trend continuation rather than just a pure short squeeze.
For long-term allocation, I still prefer BTC because it has stronger consensus and institutionalization.Before the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Wash on the 28th next week, $BTC and ETH will definitely experience a major pullback, but exactly where the pullback will be, I estimate it will be below 23000, though I am not certain.
Why will there definitely be a pullback?
First reason, technically there is a trend for a pullback.
Second reason, the US Treasury's balance sheet expansion this week was actually not very large and cannot fully cover the $4 billion US debt hole (including interest). Why has the crypto market surged this time? Because from May until now, the sentiment has been suppressed for too long; this is an emotional release, not a rise fully supported by funds.
Third reason, the market needs to wait for Federal Reserve Chair Wash's stance. If Wash remains hawkish and continues to raise interest rates, then BTC and ETH will still sharply pull back or even reverse. If there is no positive news and the stance is neutral, then it will be a consolidation. If a rate cut is confirmed, then Bitcoin and Ethereum will continue to rise.
I plan to close my positions today and tomorrow. Why am I doing this?
Mainly because I fear those nonsensical people in South Korea might trigger another surge, and the ETF situation is unclear and might cause another rise. If it drops today, I will take profits and wait for a deeper pullback before re-entering. If it does not pull back according to my script, I will choose to stay out and observe until around September 9th, when the US Treasury's promised balance sheet expansion is expected, then reconsider opening positions.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Nhịp độ giao dịch phiên trưa đang cho thấy sự thận trọng rõ rệt khi toàn cảnh thị trường duy trì trạng thái dao động ở vùng cao. Tổng vốn hóa gần như đi ngang, nhưng bên trong đã bắt đầu phân hóa mạnh. BTC, ETH biến động nhẹ, các meme chủ lực như TRUMP hạ nhiệt từ đỉnh, trong khi nhóm coin mới và coin nhỏ vùng thấp lại sôi động hơn với nhịp tăng bù. Dòng tiền đang dịch chuyển từ các điểm nóng cũ sang nhóm tăng bù – một dấu hiệu điển hình của thị trường luân chuyển ở vùng cao. Đây không phải một Save a spread on cross-border spending, choosing the right stablecoin is very important
Recently, I noticed a few signals: Coinbase will launch the Australian Dollar stablecoin AUDD and the Singapore Dollar stablecoin XSGD by the end of September, adding to the previously available JPYC and EURC. Local fiat stablecoins are becoming more and more abundant.
What does this mean for me?
In the future, when spending in Australia, I might not need to convert USDT to USD and then to AUD anymore—just use AUDD directly, turning two steps into one and saving a spread.
When choosing a U card, I’ve started asking one more question: which stablecoins does this card support? Cards that support more local fiat stablecoins usually have lower cross-border spending costs.
Next time you switch cards, you might want to pay attention to this aspect.最近币圈确实很火热，很多人的注意力都集中在$BTC 、$ETH 和各种山寨行情上。 但很多人忽略了一点： Crypto市场并不是完全独立运行，它和美股、美元流动性、全球风险偏好都有一定联系。 所以在关注币圈的同时，也需要关注美股最近发生的重要变化——美债收益率上涨，正在给科技股带来压力。 一、美债收益率上涨，为什么会影响AI股票？ 最近美国30年期国债收益率升至2007年以来高位附近，科技股特别是AI相关股票开始承压。 很多人不理解： 为什么债券收益率上涨，会让AI股票下跌？ 逻辑其实很简单： 收益率上涨 ↓ 资金成本提高 ↓ 未来盈利折现价值下降 ↓ 高估值科技股压力增加 ↓ AI股票回调 因为现在很多AI公司交易的是未来成长预期。 市场愿意给AI企业高估值，是因为投资者相信未来几年它们会创造大量利润。 但当美债收益率持续上涨，投资者会重新计算： 未来的钱，现在到底值多少钱？ 二、为什么市场特别关注美债？ 美国国债被认为是全球重要的无风险资产。 当债券收益率提高时，资金会重新比较： 买风险更高的科技股，是否还能获得足够回报？ 如果债券收益率不断上升，一部分资金可能回流更安全的资产，高BTC and ETH: Rising Together but Falling Differently, The True Market Quality Hidden in the Pullback
This week, the crypto market collectively pulled back after surging on the strong inflow of ETF funds. BTC retreated from a high of $79,000 to around $76,000, while ETH dropped from a peak of $2,548 to about $2,400. Although the pullbacks appear synchronized, the extent of decline, support strength, and capital behavior differ greatly between the two. Both are profit-taking moves, but one is a shallow adjustment supported by institutions, and the other is a rapid sell-off following a sentiment cooldown. The nature of the pullback reveals the most authentic capital structure of this rebound.
First, looking at BTC, this pullback shows typical "institutional support" characteristics. Since the peak, the maximum retracement is about 4.2%, with trading volume steadily shrinking during the decline. Every dip to the $75,000-$76,000 range sees clear support quickly lifting prices, with no panic selling. The core support comes from continuous ETF fund inflows: this week, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of $1.9 billion, the highest single-week record since October 2025. Even during the two trading days of price pullback, leading institutional products maintained net buying, showing no signs of profit-taking.
This indicates BTC’s decline is profit-taking from short-term floating chips, not a main fund exit. Institutions’ cost basis in this rebound is concentrated between $72,000 and $74,000, and the current price remains above this cost line, so the mid-to-long-term allocation logic remains unchanged. The pullback resembles a technical shakeout during an uptrend, digesting trapped positions and profit-taking before the $80,000 resistance, gradually raising the market’s average holding cost. Technically, $75,000 is the short-term strength/weakness dividing line; holding above it keeps the mid-term uptrend intact. Strong support lies at $72,000-$73,000, the launch platform of this rally. As long as this level is not decisively broken, the trend remains unbroken.
Next, ETH’s pullback is stronger and more volatile than BTC’s. The maximum drop from the peak exceeds 5.7%, with significant volume expansion during the decline and multiple rapid intraday plunges. The intensity of the bulls vs. bears battle is much higher than BTC’s. The core reason lies in the difference in capital structure: this week, ETH ETF net inflow was $697 million, also a near ten-month high but only about one-third of BTC’s volume. Moreover, the capital concentration is higher, with a single institutional product contributing over 80% of the increase, lacking broad industry-wide systematic accumulation support.
More critically, ETH’s circulating supply has a high proportion of short-term sentiment-driven holdings. The AI+Crypto narrative heated up during this rebound, attracting many retail and short-term speculative funds. Derivatives open interest surged over 15% in a single day, with leveraged funds clustering. Once upward momentum slows, concentrated profit-taking easily triggers a stampede-like pullback. The fundamental staking support prevents deep crashes, with strong support near $2,350, but sentiment-driven rallies are inherently impulsive, so the decline speed is faster. Technically, $2,400 is a short-term support converted from previous resistance; if decisively broken, the next support is the $2,300 round number.
Overall, the nature of the pullbacks is completely different: BTC’s is a normal institutional-led adjustment with support during decline, limited correction space, and clearer mid-term trend; ETH’s is a sentiment-driven profit-taking with larger volatility, faster chip loosening, and stronger short-term trading attributes. This confirms a rule: in every rebound, ETH has greater elasticity and faster profits on the rise, while BTC is more resilient and safer on the fall. There is no absolute superiority, only whether it matches your trading cycle and risk preference.
In terms of strategy, BTC can continue to be treated with a mid-term allocation mindset: hold the base position, accumulate in batches at support zones during pullbacks, and avoid changing direction lightly due to short-term volatility. ETH is more suitable for swing trading: take profits on rallies, buy dips on pullbacks, strictly control position size, avoid chasing highs at sentiment peaks, and don’t blindly bottom-fish during declines. Ultimately, pullbacks are never the risk itself; not understanding the essence of pullbacks is the greatest risk. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% BTC breaks through $77,000—this move is not just a rally, but a structural change in capital flow. If the weekly net inflow of the U.S. SPOT BTC ETF was about $1.61 billion, is the market already reevaluating this price range as a 'verified level'? U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $1.61 billion this week, with about $606 million flowing in on Thursday alone. This is the largest daily net inflow since May. This figure is not simply a sign of price increases, but rather signals that institutional funds are expanding their BTC positions more actively than before. The key point is that this fund is not meant to 'chase' price increases, but rather to 'lead' price increases. The largest daily inflow since May suggests that demand is not due to specific event purchases but rather for portfolio allocation. This serves as an important criterion for evaluating the sustainability of a rally. Now, the market structure is being reorganized around two price ranges, Interpretation of PMI data exceeding expectations: seemingly strengthening, but actually not supporting rate hikes, not suitable for chasing gains
The latest US PMI data has significantly rebounded, causing the market to worry again: with the economy stronger than expected, will the Federal Reserve restart rate hikes?
Currently, the market is in a healthy structure of economic recovery without rising inflation, which is insufficient to support a rate hike in September. Market concerns are an overly emotional interpretation.
On the charts, $BTC and $ETH are generally consolidating sideways, with BTC holding 77500 and ETH stabilizing above 2430.
Contract data shows a slight advantage for bulls, but funding rates are extremely low, indicating bulls are not aggressively pushing, and the market is not in a forced short squeeze.
The focus for the subsequent market is on two core factors: long-term US Treasury yields and the US dollar trend.
US Treasury and dollar strengthening → high valuation assets under pressure, ETH, gold, and AI sectors are prioritized for adjustment;
Yields stabilizing and falling → strong economy benefits risk assets, BTC can slowly digest high-level chips and consolidate the trend.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% Recently, $ZEC has been crazily hyped up
I thought of a very interesting person: Naval Ravikant from "The Naval Handbook."
Naval was actually an early investor in Zcash, participating in its early funding stages.
In a 2017 interview, he clearly stated that if privacy is truly valued, Zcash and Monero would achieve privacy protection to a level that Bitcoin and Ethereum have not.
By 2025, he even directly dropped a phrase that was wildly spread by the market later:
"Bitcoin is insurance against fiat. Zcash is insurance against Bitcoin."
The meaning is simple: BTC is insurance against the fiat currency system, while ZEC is insurance against BTC's transparency.
Even more striking, after this phrase reignited the ZEC narrative in October 2025, the price surged from over $70 all the way above $600.
So recently, I increasingly feel that this round of market hype around $ZEC is not just about "privacy coins."
It is being repackaged as another digital currency narrative beyond $BTC. 我认为这次冲高78800美元后的回落是健康的“换手”，因为ETF资金的性质变了，行情正从“虚火”转向“实牛”。 我看重的是上周26亿美元的净流入数据，这是去年10月以来最强的单周流入。 这说明什么？说明这次大饼二饼上涨不再仅仅是靠空头爆仓带来的“假涨”，而是有真金白银的机构在现货端接货。 我自己在狗狗0.1附近不仅没跑，等他回落时，还加仓了一点， 因为我知道，只要ETF这种长线资金还在持续买入，短期的获利盘抛压就会被消化掉。 昨天几乎所有币同时暴跌后又拉上去，就是洗牌，追高的被爆仓，观望的人不敢进场。 现在的核心逻辑就是看ETF能不能持续“接力”。 只要资金流不断，这轮上涨就能从“杠杆牛”切换成更稳的“趋势牛”。 大家别被盘中的上下插针吓跑了，盯着ETF的流入数据看，那才是主力真正的底牌。$BTC $ETH $DOGE #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
This round of BTC's rise looks like a sudden surge on the surface, but in fact, it is the result of three combined forces:
First, macro expectations have warmed.
The U.S. Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, the dollar weakened, and the market resumed trading on the "currency depreciation" logic, benefiting both BTC and gold simultaneously.
Second, shorts were collectively squeezed.
On August 19, the crypto market saw about $2.7 billion liquidated in a single day, with BTC shorts liquidated over $1 billion within an hour. Once the price broke a key level, shorts stopped losses → forced to buy → continued to push up, forming a positive feedback loop.
Third, ETF funds have truly started to take over.
The U.S. spot BTC ETF has had net inflows for four consecutive days, totaling about $1.6 billion. This indicates that this time it’s not just shorts being squeezed out; spot funds are also returning.
My judgment on this market move is:
Short liquidations are responsible for igniting the rally; whether ETFs and spot funds can take over will determine if it can keep burning.
Short-term focus on three things:
① Whether ETFs can continue to have inflows
② Whether BTC can hold above $70,000
③ Whether the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will strengthen again
If funds keep coming in, $80,000 might just be the next hurdle.
But if no new funds take over after the liquidation wave ends, this rally could revert from a "short squeeze rally" back to consolidation.
So the biggest taboo now is:
Seeing such a big rise and thinking "it’s time to fall" and then shorting directly.
Don’t lightly go against the market before the trend truly weakens.Before the opening bell has even rung, the white pawn on the chessboard has already advanced to e4. Nvidia has raised the price list for AI servers by fifteen percent. This is not an ordinary commercial price adjustment; it is a midgame sacrifice attack—on the surface, it seems to check the cloud providers' army, but in reality, it sets a new tone for the entire memory supply chain chessboard.
Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell, these two systems are the rooks on the chessboard. Now the rooks are crossing the river, the cost of the rooks is rising, and customers must either accept the move or push their orders back. If customers grit their teeth and accept this price, it means confirming Nvidia's pricing power is as unshakable as a heavy piece on the back rank. Every pawn on the memory chain—SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron—will get a share in this exchange, with rising marginal profits like an open straight line directly to the opponent's baseline.
But what if orders are delayed? That’s like calculating a checkmate five moves ahead in the midgame, only to find the opponent refuses to follow that variation. Once cloud providers hesitate on AI capital expenditure, the valuation of tech stocks is like a central pawn chain losing its support, and the formation instantly loosens. Ultimately, the key to this game is not whether Nvidia is willing to concede, but whether the customer will jump their knight to that position.
A fifteen-percentage-point increase looks like a cost issue, but it’s actually a game theory problem. The rise in memory and component costs is the overt threat; the real undercurrent is: whoever first cannot bear this price pressure will reveal a flaw on the chessboard. Customers accepting the price hike shows their thirst for computing power outweighs their fear of the profit statement. Customers rejecting the price hike means Nvidia’s pricing power will hang over the black king’s head like a check that is seen but not moved.
I watch the chess clock. Every pawn from the early years will find its true value in the endgame. In this game, Nvidia has pushed the pawn forward; next, we’ll see how the opponent responds. For every chip holder in the market, the real test is—at which stage did you enter, and have you calculated clearly whether the high ground of value at the endgame will turn into a wasteland. Check is a choice, but some people don’t even have the qualification to be checked. #nvidiaaiserversmayrise15% At 3 a.m., I spread out the blueprints. That candlestick piercing $2,500 looks like the cantilever of a tower crane—you see the price, I see the moment the cantilever structure lacks support. A 30% weekly rise? Just a weather forecast at the construction site. Where is the real load-bearing wall? Let me tap the concrete.
The $1.1 billion short squeeze in the past 24 hours was the collapse of temporary formwork. On a construction site, this kind of instantaneous lateral force actually helps us verify the ductility of the frame—the skewed truss was lifted by the wind, but the bolts remained tightly fastened. But note: a short squeeze is not "foundation pouring," it just removes the site fences that don’t comply with the blueprints.
Last week’s $697 million net inflow into ETFs—that’s the real prestressed steel tendons. They’re not like leverage sandbags, which are loose cement that blows away with the wind. ETF funds are prefabricated components hoisted from traditional capital markets, with solid welds. When the spot market is as rough as a bare shell, ETFs are like a fully furnished model home—they directly anchor the quality of the facade to the structural layer.
And that US stock token XSNDK is like an annex building. The main building and annex share the same foundation slab; the heat released during concrete curing over there transfers temperature stress to the floor slab here. The linkage is no coincidence; it’s the inevitable result of node design.
Now, the model of slowing demand and profit-taking looks like what? Like removing the construction elevator, forcing residents to use stairs. Leverage is a temporary climbing ladder; profit-taking is the pressurized fan in the fire escape—once supply and demand balance shifts, these devices cause noticeable vibrations, making the building display exaggerated displacement curves in wind tunnel tests. But displacement doesn’t equal instability, and vibration doesn’t equal collapse.
As an architect, I don’t care whether the scaffold flags fluttered all morning or all day. I only care about one thing: whether the basement piles have reached the bearing stratum. ETF inflows prove the concrete pump truck is continuously pouring, but that initial 30% weekly rise was just the celebratory noise after the beam and slab rebar was tied.
My judgment: the building’s base slab is not yet sealed; the waterproof layer, leveling layer, and protective layer haven’t been done at all. The current $2,500 is the surface gloss during concrete’s initial setting period—it looks hard, but when you step on it, it’s all footprints. #ethhits2500$BTC Many people are very anxious. Let me say more: I have been calling for a major Wall Street retreat in the past few months, and now I’m saying Wall Street is starting to enter the market.
At least all the data suggests this is the short-term trend, but how long it will last is unknown. This will determine whether the bull market truly returns and whether it’s a rebound or a reversal. However, for long-term positions, it’s time to build positions gradually on dips in the coming months.
Just being anxious about missing out is useless. Even if you enter on the left side, you’ve already been anxious for a long time. No one can avoid anxiety. The only way to solve anxiety is to get in, preferably even if you get stuck, so you feel secure and stop worrying, even ignoring the price.
From a time perspective, this is a rebound within a bear market cycle, but from various indicators, it looks like the start of a bull market. No matter how you look at it, around 60k is the bottom area. Since the bottom range is roughly clear, the key is how to catch the main upward wave afterward. The main wave hasn’t even started yet, so why be anxious?
From a liquidity perspective, the short liquidity above has mostly been cleared, but that doesn’t mean there’s no room to go up. The bulls are starting to get crowded. 80k is where most people are stuck. It will likely oscillate repeatedly. A probable scenario is to consume the liquidity between 80-90k, then push down to consume the liquidity between 60-70k. Both ranges are very large and will definitely be consumed; it’s just uncertain which will be consumed first. So we should build positions when it hits back into the 60-70k range again. There will definitely be that opportunity.
From an event perspective, recent fiscal moves by the Fed, the bill passing on September 15 and speeches by Powell, the launch of large models in October, and the midterm elections in November... these are all events that will greatly amplify volatility. If you’re doing short-term trades, you can capitalize on this. For the long term, there will definitely be opportunities to build positions on dips, but before September 15 or October, forming a downtrend might still be difficult. This wave of Wall Street entering and buying is very strong.
From an opportunity perspective, there are many chances as various crypto sectors rotate. If BTC stabilizes around 80k, many altcoin leaders have dropped deeply and will be the first beneficiaries. Besides crypto, there are many excellent US stocks to choose from, including some very cheap big tech stocks. There are many opportunities, so there’s really no need to be anxious about anything. UniSat野心这么大，靠什么撑？ 上一篇说了UniSat的野心。 钱包、Mint、交易、数据，再到Fractal，这家伙根本不满足于只做一个钱包，能碰的地方基本都想碰一下。 盘子确实大。 但币圈什么都想做，最后什么都没做好的项目也不少。UniSat敢把摊子铺这么开，手里到底有什么牌？ 重新看了一遍它这些年的路子，我想到一句老话： 高筑墙，广积粮，缓称王。 这句话记在《明史》里，至于是不是朱升当年的逐字原话，历史上还有争议。不过朱元璋当时走的确实是这条路。 先站稳，慢慢攒实力，没到时候不急着抢老大。 放到UniSat身上，还挺像。 先说高筑墙。 UniSat最早靠钱包和铭文起来，后来一直往里面加东西。 看资产、Mint、交易，各种原本挺麻烦的操作，它都想办法做得简单一点。 散户其实不想研究那么多规则。 能不能用，麻不麻烦，手续费贵不贵，资产放里面安不安全，就看这几个。 UniSat把这些事情都塞到一个地方，用户用顺手了，自然懒得换。 这就是它的墙。 不是什么高深技术，说白了就是好用，再加上用习惯了。 当然，东西做得多也有问题。 每个功能都要维护，都要花人花钱。功能列表看起来很猛，不代表People who shout 'bull market is here' after a single-day surge often overlook the signals that matter more.
This week, the combined net inflow of US BTC and ETH spot ETFs reached $2.6 billion, hitting a new high since October 2025. The trend is bullish — the core reason is the clear return of institutional and compliant funds, supporting mainstream assets with buying power. Continuous net inflows are more worth noting than single-day spikes, indicating that the rise is not solely driven by leveraged sentiment. Short-term focus: whether ETF inflows can continue, and if BTC and ETH have support on high-level pullbacks; if fund flows slow down, mainstream coins with larger prior gains will also face profit-taking pressure.
Source: BlockBeats
#BTC #ETH #Crypto100W For this wave of $BTC, I am more inclined to define it as a **"strong rebound + high-level rotation," rather than a main upward trend driven entirely by new funds**. The continuous net inflow of ETFs indeed indicates that institutional buying is recovering, but the passive buying caused by short squeeze liquidations is equally crucial. Once this fuel is exhausted, the subsequent momentum must rely on real spot demand.
So, although the area around 78,000 is strong, it cannot be simply understood as "funds have fully returned." The most important things to watch next are: whether ETFs can continue to maintain stable inflows, and whether BTC can hold above 70,000. If it quickly recovers after dipping below 70,000, it means the previous breakout is supported, and the subsequent challenge of 78,000 or even 80,000 will be healthier.
Conversely, if ETF inflows significantly weaken and U.S. Treasury yields rise again, and BTC breaks below 70,000, then this short squeeze rally may enter a deeper profit-taking phase.
So, it’s not that we can’t be bullish now, but we shouldn’t treat the short squeeze rally as a risk-free bull market. Strong in the short term, but medium-term still needs fund validation. The key focus going forward is to observe the 70,000 support and ETF continuity, which is more meaningful than guessing the top.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡