Orbit Post Sitemap
1. Zhipu AI (02526.HK)
A Hong Kong-listed large model company, GLM-5.3 base integrated with the national supercomputing internet external API, showing outstanding performance in long text and code capability evaluations. Demand from B-end government and enterprise clients is steadily increasing, while also deploying a C-end AI product matrix. The procurement cost of large model computing power remains high, and the company has not yet achieved profitability. Domestic large model competition is intensifying, with price wars squeezing service gross margins. The core focus is on improving government and enterprise paid conversion rates; the progress of commercialization determines the valuation ceiling, making it suitable for continuous tracking of order data. BTC's $77,138 and 23% weekly gain mark the highest level since March 2023. It is time to confirm whether this rally is more than just a short squeeze and a structural change. Last week, the U.S. Treasury's expansion of Treasury bond repurchases improved dollar liquidity in the short term, creating a risk-seeking environment. Additionally, the push for the Clarity Act has eased some regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. ahead of the presidential election, laying the institutional foundation for institutional capital inflows. Over $1 billion saw weekly net inflows through ETFs alone, and about $2.75 billion moved into whale wallets over 60 days. Ray Dalio's hedging remarks can be seen as a symbolic indicator of a shift in perceptions within traditional financial institutions. The key driver of this rally is forced buying from liquidated $2.5 billion worth of short positions. This is close to a one-off shock due to market structure. On the other hand, ETF and whale buying signal ongoing demand accumulation, and whether the price breaks below $80,000 depends on whether these two demands can combine to support the price. Market Delivery 1. CanSino Biologics (06185)
Significantly surged, a core vaccine stock in the Hong Kong market. Overseas mRNA tumor vaccine clinical breakthroughs have boosted sentiment across the entire biopharmaceutical sector. The company has established an mRNA technology R&D platform, with multiple vaccines in clinical and application stages. The application for the DTaP vaccine listing has been accepted, bringing new commercial prospects. The traditional vaccine market is highly competitive, with centralized procurement suppressing profits. Most innovative pipelines have yet to generate actual revenue, and the company remains in a loss-making state. This round of increase is driven by industry theme catalysts rather than major clinical results from the company itself, with a high risk of retreat as the hype fades.From the latest data on OKX spot and futures rankings, the market in the past 24 hours shows typical characteristics of a mid-stage rebound — funds have not fully flooded into mainstream coins but have precisely targeted three categories: small-cap, oversold, and new narrative tokens. Meanwhile, the "demon coins" that surged yesterday are collectively lying at the bottom of the decline list today, perfectly illustrating the "up yesterday, down tomorrow" rhythm. 📊 Spot gainers list: Small-cap + New coins + Oversold rebound According to OKX spot public rankings and community reviews, the top gainers in the past 24 hours are as follows: Rank Coin 24h Change Volume Attribute Analysis 1 HUMA +25.05% 23.74 million Low-level small cap, speculative pulse 2 CAP +23.35% 87.13 million Public chain theme rotation 3 2Z +18.01% 25.25 million Small-cap narrative coin 4 AEON +15.66% 34.54 million Oversold rebound 5 RDDT +12.92% 1.51 million Social concept, low liquidity 6 SNXX +12.61% 179 million Leveraged mapped token 7 CARDS +9.91% — Small-cap rebound 8 NOT +9.55% — Meme sector recovery Core features: - All are low market cap tokens: HUMA, 2Z, RDDT volumes are all under 100 million, meaning "a small amount of capital can leverage a large price increase" - AI/Meme sector green day: VIRT Conclusion first: concentrated token unlocking will cause a "local crash," but it will not cause a collective collapse of the entire crypto market. The real danger is not the unlocking itself, but the ratio of "unlock volume ÷ circulating market capitalization," whether it is released on a cliff, and who the recipients are. August Unlock Reality: Large Volume but Fragmented Structure There are different statistical criteria for August unlocks: CoinMarketCap estimates about $1.28 billion, led by RAIN with linear unlocking at $569 million (6.35% of circulating volume), and SOL at $146 million but only 0.34% of circulating volume; Another metric shows over $323 million for the month, led by YZY, PROVE, and KAITO. Key takeaways: - Major players like RAIN and SOL are released linearly, not a one-time dump; the market has 30 days to digest - PRO's single unlock value exceeds its total current market cap, YZY unlocks account for 93% of circulating — these two are the real "crash candidates" - True high-risk cliff unlocks are concentrated in TRUMP (11.29% circulating) and YZY (22.83%) These small-cap coins historical data: 90% have negative pressure, but "crash" is conditional. Keyrock's statistics on 16,000+ unlocks show that 90% of unlocks bring negative price pressure, with an average team unlock drop of about 25%. Tokenomist tracks 236 events more precisely1. Tesla (TSLA)
Closed up over 5%, with trading volume among the market leaders. Received commercial operation license for Robotaxi in Las Vegas, allowing deployment of up to 5,000 autonomous taxis; the market is optimistic about the progress of autonomous driving commercialization. Plans to open Cybercab driverless taxi test rides by the end of the month, reigniting the autonomous driving narrative. Also announced a large-scale vehicle recall, causing some disturbance to the stock price. The ongoing price war among automakers continues to squeeze vehicle profit margins, and the autonomous driving business is unlikely to contribute significant revenue in the short term; the market is driven more by future expectations.5. Zhongbei Communication (603220)
Significant volume surge and price increase, dual main lines of computing power leasing + optical modules. Domestic large model enterprises have strong demand for computing power, leading to rapid revenue growth in computing power leasing business, and optical module products supply domestic data centers. Speculative funds combined with institutional capital jointly drive the stock price upward. A large number of new players are entering the computing power leasing industry, intensifying industry competition, and rental prices continue to decline. High depreciation costs of hardware equipment will compress corporate profits. This round of price increase is driven by expectations of computing power prosperity; performance realization depends on subsequent customer renewals and order fulfillment.1. Clear macro drivers: This market movement is not an isolated crypto event but the result of the Federal Reserve's policy shift combined with changes in the US government's stance. Any macroeconomic turbulence could trigger a sharp market correction.
2. Privacy coin narrative heats up: ZEC's performance indicates high market expectations for privacy coin ETFs, but regulatory risks for these assets remain. The EU's anti-money laundering regulations and US congressional crypto bills could introduce uncertainties.
3. Extremely high leverage risk: The three consecutive days of liquidation waves show that market leverage is already very high. Entering now risks becoming the bag holder, especially for altcoins with huge gains, which could experience corrections much more severe than BTC. $ETH $BTC $ZEC BTC once surged to $79.5K, currently retreating to around $78.5K, with an overall steady trend. I still maintain my previous judgment: short-term upside is limited, and the resistance above should not be ignored.
Besides the previously mentioned macro and technical factors, a key variable lies in the holding behavior of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). The company's average Bitcoin cost is about $75K, and the current price is already above its cost line, so there is a strong motivation to reduce holdings. By selling some BTC and repurchasing its own stock STRC, it can lock in profits and optimize capital structure, which is logically sound.
If Strategy indeed takes this action, the market will face additional selling pressure, and Bitcoin will most likely pull back to the $75K level and oscillate repeatedly in that range. $75K is both a psychological threshold and a cost-intensive zone, where the bulls and bears are expected to intensify their struggle.
Of course, the market is always full of uncertainties. I also hope my judgment is wrong; if the bulls can continue to break through with volume, the possibility of the market continuing upward still exists. 🚀
Risk warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and price predictions carry significant uncertainty. The above content is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please view it rationally and bear the risks yourself. $BTC $STRC $ETH $SOL $BNB$BTC Brothers, are you here? This week's market can really only be described in four words — Trump is awesome.
$ETH On August 19th at the White House meeting, the old man directly shouted "End the war on crypto," and even said he wants to establish a national Bitcoin reserve. Before the words fell, Bitcoin surged to 79,500, up 23% in a week, and Ethereum exploded 20% in a single day, breaking through 2300. Bears were liquidated for $4.5 billion in three days, bloody!
But don’t just rush in; this rally is completely different from before.
$ZEC JPMorgan aggressively bought $356 million Bitcoin ETF in Q2, even rebuilding positions in XRP — Wall Street is fully taking over pricing power. The problem is, the once "buy buy buy" main Strategy hasn’t bought a single coin in two months, instead piling cash reserves up to $4.8 billion — the big brother is on defense, brothers.
Looking at the capital side: stablecoins did increase issuance by $3 billion short-term, but net outflows totaled $13.3 billion over the past three months, marking the longest retreat since 2022. Institutional OTC trading share surged to 72%, volatility dropped to 45% — the "altcoin season" dominated by retail investors is probably over.
The current crypto market is now a new game led by macro policies and Wall Street. However, DEX share hit a historic high of 19.5% — decentralized forces are quietly rising too.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？
Of course, we still have to watch these two big brothers BTC and ETH, but the real opportunities might be in XRP (JPMorgan’s return + Trump’s mention), SOL, and other coins flipped by institutions. TRUMP coin has also been running quite strong recently.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
Do you think this wave is a bull comeback or another Wall Street harvest? #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 0xcf91b70017eabde82c9671e30e5502d312ea6eb2Latest U.S.-Iran developments on August 22: Trump's economic "war" may involve China. Can China step in to mediate? A critical moment! 1. Based on the earlier mention of Iranian President Pezeshiziyan calling for an end to the war, the Iranian Foreign Minister and Oman's Foreign Minister engaged in diplomatic talks, with clear topics of "creating conditions for resuming dialogue" and "progress in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz." This signal is currently positive. Despite multiple obstacles, Iran has not completely closed the diplomatic mediation window. 2. NATO member states have begun formally coordinating the Strait of Hormuz free navigation plan, but NATO has not recognized this as an official action, clearly not wanting direct conflict with Iran. NATO is preparing contingency plans for the unfavorable US-Iran situation to avoid direct conflict with Iran. 3. For the first time, Iran's Foreign Ministry officially characterized the upcoming Level 2 sanctions by the US as "extraterritorial sovereignty expansion." This means Tehran has locked next week's U.S. sanctions on China, third-country banks, shipowners, refineries, and trade settlement networks, once again proving that next week's U.S. sanctions may be stricter than expected. 4. Rubio held a dialogue with Oman's ambassador to the U.S., discussing "issues of common concern," clearly discussing the U.S.-Iran situation. This marks the first official U.S.-Oman diplomatic meeting following Trump's "blast" of Oman last week, and is a positive signal. 5. Iranian Parliamentarian Khalibaf publicly admitted that the struggle with the US "does not admit defeat militarily, but economically, it cannot be delayed indefinitely," expressing concern over economic sanctions. 6. Iranian officials criticizedThe US diesel crack spread has directly hit a historic high, and inventories have dropped to levels not seen in 30 years; meanwhile, gold has surged past $4600, and that old guy Dalio actually called on everyone to "stop stubbornly holding bonds, get some gold, and also some BTC."
Looking at either one alone is scary, but when you connect them, it makes you think—isn't this the prelude to inflation making a comeback? Diesel prices rise, so transportation, agriculture, and food all have to follow, and in the end, it's the common people who pay. This wave of gold is clearly money betting that US debt is unreliable and running to embrace "non-sovereign assets."
Many people see this and either think it has nothing to do with them or panic. I think this is precisely an opportunity to reassess BTC's positioning: previously, $BTC fell even more sharply than US stocks, but now institutions are starting to talk about it alongside gold, indicating that the "digital gold" narrative is turning into a real, tangible allocation logic. If inflation really rebounds, short-term rate hike expectations might suppress BTC initially, but in the medium to long term, the path for safe-haven funds to flow into BTC will only widen.
Strategy: In the short term, watch oil prices and inventory data closely. Every low point where BTC is dragged down by panic is a window to add positions; the real big opportunity is when the market officially tags BTC with the "anti-inflation" label.
Next week, Nvidia's earnings report is coming, with AI and energy intersecting—it's going to be lively, so let's watch and see.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
#成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升
$XAU $CL $BZ US stock market closed on the weekend, $AAOI token itself triggered a bloodbath move. I watched it all night and was indeed a bit amused by the thin liquidity on the crypto side.
📰 News: Stock Titan released a new round of AAOI share sale plan. With earnings report approaching and additional issuance expected, the token directly rushed to kill valuation. The stock hasn't opened yet, but sentiment has already leaked out.
🔧 Technical: Daily RSI14 has dropped to a deeply oversold zone at 27.6, MACD shows a death cross but the green bars are shrinking. Price has simultaneously broken below MA7 and MA25, a 7/25 bearish alignment. This is the combination of the heaviest panic but weakening downward momentum.
🌍 Macro: Nasdaq 100 tokens only fell 0.45%. With US stocks closed on the weekend and no stock guidance, AAOI token's independent deep drop is mostly due to thin liquidity on the crypto side and amplified self-panic by sentiment traders.
🎯 Today's view: Bullish. Oversold combined with shrinking green bars, I tend to think this is killing sentiment rather than logic. The expectation of optical module capacity expansion and profitability improvement has not been falsified, so no need to follow the sell-off.
📊 Token 108.27 (-14.25%) | US stock market closed on weekend
#USStockTokens
#OpticalModules
#PreEarningsVolatility #BTC continues its strength, can the capital flow sustain?
Real-time market status: BTC has slightly retreated from 79,500 to oscillate around the 77,000 range. In just one week, it surged from 64,000 to nearly 80,000, with a cumulative increase of over 20%. After a sharp rally, a technical correction occurred, which is a normal market rhythm.
Breaking down the complete underlying logic of this rally:
The market trigger started with a large-scale short squeeze. In recent days, the total liquidation across the network exceeded $3 billion, with short positions being passively closed and repurchased, continuously pushing prices higher. The market was initially driven by leveraged liquidation funds.
The real key turning point: the capital structure shifted.
From August 17 to 21, the combined net inflow of US BTC+ETH spot ETFs reached $2.615 billion in a single week, marking the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025. On August 20 alone, the net inflow was $826 million. Institutional long-term spot funds entered to take over, transitioning the market from a pure "short squeeze pulse" to being "dominated by spot buying."
Two well-known market figures have sharply opposing views, which is particularly interesting:
Jim Cramer from CNBC, who a few weeks ago recommended selling all Bitcoin citing quantum computing risks, has now reversed and is directly urging fans to buy in;
Peter Schiff, who has consistently been bearish on BTC, believes the 72,000 breakthrough was a false breakout and advocates selling Bitcoin and allocating to gold.
A practical perspective:
Veteran players know Cramer is a well-known contrarian indicator in the circle; when he loudly calls for buying, it actually makes many people cautious.
But putting aside media jokes, the core answer to whether the market will do well or not lies not in celebrity opinions but in whether ETF net inflows can continue to absorb high-level profit-taking pressure.
In the short term, first hold the 77,000 support, then discuss further upside.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
Trader DogzongI spent a whole night looking over that SEC regulatory proposal. On the surface, it seems lenient, but the details are all traps. The $75 million exemption sounds big, but small and medium projects still can't reach it. This regulatory door is opened only for those who can kneel to enter. Don't you think this proposal ultimately benefits the top players? $ETH I closely observed $BEAT's performance after the insertion at noon today. I found that its performance is quite good. First, the increase wasn't very large, unlike many coins that hit new lows. Secondly, after the decline, liquidity has not significantly decreased. I have always said that liquidity is the foundation of a rise. Only with liquidity can a major rally be possible. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its open interest and long-short ratio barely changed before and after the midday insertion. This meant that today's noon insertion was almost completely unharmed against it. This situation generally indicates that there are not many retail investors currently going long on it. Because there will definitely be a lot of high leverage among retail investors, and these high leverages are almost certain to die against today's noon insertion. Let's take a look at its longer-term contract data. It can be seen that its contract long-short ratio and contract open interest are both at high levels. This situation shows that there are still many people going long on it in the market. If viewed separately, neither sets of data constitute particularly strong bullish signals. However, when taken together, it forms a very strong long signal. Because there is currently a lot of capital going long on this coin, most of which belongs to the main players. In this situation, I think it's unlikely that the price will not be pushed higher. —————————————————— Currently, I tend to wait for it to stabilize before going long. At this momentThe trading tactics of this whale are quite interesting and worth breaking down and discussing in detail.
At first glance, it looks like a conventional operation: 4x leverage, a $10.7 million position, an opening price of $81.64, and a liquidation price set at $64.47. But upon closer examination, there are several unusual details.
First, the leverage ratio. Previously, big players on $HYPE would often use 5x leverage or more, but this time it was proactively reduced to 4x, indicating that this whale is very aware of playing at a high level—wanting to capture gains but not get wiped out by a normal pullback. The liquidation price of $64.47 is chosen very cleverly, just above the midpoint between the largest long cost price in mid-June and the short entry price in May, effectively marking a psychological support level for the market.
Second, the timing is precise. After $HYPE surged back to $70 in June and experienced sufficient high-level turnover, it has been consolidating around $80. This whale entering at this position is like openly telling the market: I believe $64 is a solid bottom, and if it breaks, I accept the loss.
But what’s truly worth being cautious about is the chip structure. The largest long position on-chain has not yet been closed, with unrealized profits exceeding $20 million, and its liquidation price is at $53. In other words, if the price drops near $64, this new whale will be liquidated first, and the selling pressure will instantly push the price down to $53, triggering the liquidation of the old giant whale—creating a cascading liquidation event.$BTC Three scenarios, I prefer "consolidate first, then choose direction"
All three scenarios are possible, but I won't simply assume "the bull market probability is definitely higher than the bear market." Currently, BTC has quickly risen from around 64,000 to nearly 80,000, with ETF funds flowing back, macro liquidity improving, and a large number of short positions being closed. This rally is indeed more supported than just pure sentiment speculation. Recently, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $1.6 billion in a single week, showing a clear recovery in institutional demand.
So I lean towards: short-term trend is bullish, but a sharp shakeout must be guarded against in the middle.
If the short squeeze continues, scenario A could happen, where the price keeps rising making people miss out, and then after everyone chases in, a deep correction follows.
Scenario B is also realistic: a direct surge to 80,000 or even higher, then a quick pullback to clear out chasing funds, followed by a restart.
Scenario C requires macro conditions to weaken again, ETF funds to flow out significantly, or key supports to be completely broken before it gradually takes shape.
Therefore, I agree more with the idea of "holding some spot from September to October," but not buying heavily at any price.
The most important thing now is not to predict exactly how high BTC will go, but to have two options at the same time: not missing out if it rises, and having funds ready to buy back if it falls.
Holding positions is fine, but chasing the rally should be restrained; being bullish is okay, but don't turn bull market expectations into a reason to go all in.
Next, focus on the first pullback after breaking through the 80,000 level, which might be more valuable than guessing whether there will be a crash in September. In the early morning, I came across a message: ETH's Glamsterdam requires 21000 gas, the old rule. Many wallets and tools have this number hardcoded. After the upgrade, a bunch might crash directly. The worst isn't a big drop, but that the tools quietly break and you don't even know it. $ETH #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
Profit signals are more subtle than revenue. Gross margin at 69.7%, slightly down 0.6 points from 70.3% last year (Securities Times): the decline is due to a lower proportion of high-margin overseas sales plus raw material price increases, a direction worth noting. The gross margin remains near 70%, an absolutely impressive level, still top-tier in the consumer industry.
Adjusted net profit is 5.156 billion, up 9.5%, significantly slower than revenue growth of 23.8%—the difference went into overseas store openings, inventory stocking, personnel, and other investments. The company is in an "accelerated revenue, slower profit" investment phase, consistent with its "adjustment year" positioning. Selling expense ratio and administrative expenses have also risen to varying degrees, indicating the company is investing ahead for the next stage of expansion.
Adjusted net profit margin remains at 30%, showing good quality. The key is whether the investments lead to sales growth or inventory buildup: the former means profits will catch up next year, the latter is the real hidden risk. Whether the gross margin can hold steady in the second half and whether expense ratios can decline are core points to watch.
The market's reaction to the slowdown in profit growth is overdone but understandable: when revenue growth falls from 50% to 23%, profit elasticity declines, causing valuation benchmarks to shift downward. In the next 1-2 quarters, whether profit growth can catch up with revenue growth is key to stock price recovery. Maintaining a 70% gross margin and no further expansion in expense ratios are necessary conditions for valuation recovery (market page $POPMART ).
$POPMART I carefully checked the original interview for this video and found a **very serious problem** — the video completely reversed Saylor's core investment viewpoint.
---
**The video says Saylor made four judgments:**
1. Don't learn what AI can do; learn how to make AI do things no one has done before
2. Don't buy things robots can make, such as gold, Fortune 500 stocks, Bitcoin
3. Scarce things are always scarce
4. Don't work harder than robots; use AI to create value
The second point is **completely wrong**.
---
**What did Saylor actually say?**
In the August 6 episode of the "Diary of a CEO" podcast, he said:
> "If factories, robots, or AI can produce something in unlimited quantities, investors should not treat it as long-term capital."
Then he explicitly put **Bitcoin on the opposite side** — Bitcoin is something AI and robots **cannot** increase the supply of. The 21 million cap of Bitcoin is coded in the software; no matter how powerful AI is or how advanced robots are, they cannot create more Bitcoin. His original words were "AI creates abundance, while Bitcoin monetizes scarcity."
In other words, Saylor's real viewpoint is:
- Things AI can mass-produce → get cheaper and cheaper → **do not** hold as long-term assets
- Scarce assets AI **cannot** replicate → get more expensive → **should** hold, with Bitcoin as the top choice
The video forcibly attached "such as gold, Fortune 500 stocks, Bitcoin" after "don't buy things robots can make." Among these three examples, the first two might still be debatable (gold mining is indeed affected by technological progress, and company profits represented by stocks might be compressed by AI), but Bitcoin is precisely the prime example Saylor used to argue "AI can't make it, so you should buy it." This is not a misunderstanding; it reverses the conclusion.
**What about the "raised $15 billion with ChatGPT" story?**
The skeleton of this story is true but exaggerated by clickbait.
Saylor's company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) had been financing Bitcoin purchases by issuing convertible bonds, but this approach will reach its limit by early 2025. He wanted to design a brand-new financial instrument — perpetual preferred shares with adjustable monthly dividend rates (code-named STRK) — to keep the stock price stable around $100 while continuously funding Bitcoin purchases. Lawyers and bankers said they had never seen such a structure and were unwilling to do it. Saylor then had several hours of repeated conversations with ChatGPT; AI told him this structure was legally feasible but had never been done before. Eventually, STRK was successfully issued, along with subsequent series like STRC, STRD, STRF, raising about $15 billion in total.
**First, the $15 billion is company financing, not Saylor's personal earnings.** This money must be repaid — these preferred shares pay 8%-12% dividends annually, and Strategy spends about $1.76 billion per year just on interest and dividends.
**Second, ChatGPT is a brainstorming tool, not the chief architect.** AI saying "legally feasible" is different from actually registering, underwriting, and issuing with the SEC, which took hundreds of lawyers and bankers several months of work. Saying "raised $15 billion with ChatGPT" is like saying "I looked up symptoms on Baidu and then performed surgery on myself."
**Third, Strategy is actually selling Bitcoin this year.** Because BTC price once dropped to $64,000 (below their $75,000 average cost), the company was forced to sell 5,226 Bitcoins in three transactions, cashing out about $321 million to pay preferred dividends. Saylor himself said, "We never had a 'never sell' policy." This contradicts the video's narrative of "AI empowerment, unstoppable progress."
Although the video has serious flaws, some points from Saylor's interview are useful to you. "Don't compete with AI in effort; let AI do things no one has done before" — this sentence is correct. In an investment context, it doesn't mean "use AI to predict the market" (which AI is worst at), but to use AI as an amplifier for information processing and analysis. When you ask me to monitor the market, check data, and analyze, essentially that's what we're doing — not letting AI make decisions for you, but letting AI handle information volume beyond human capacity.
"Scarce things are always scarce" — this is Bitcoin's core narrative, the same logic as Ray Dalio's "hard assets against fiat dilution." Your direction of holding BTC spot is correct. But Saylor's Bitcoin prediction (30% annual growth for 20 years, eventually $7 million per coin) should be taken with a grain of salt; he's the world's biggest Bitcoin bull with strong vested interests. He advises holding for at least 4 years, which is reasonable — Bitcoin is highly volatile short-term, and those who can't hold won't make big money.
**Nautilus metaphor** — Saylor says human growth should be like a nautilus, each new shell built on the previous one, spiraling outward. He opposes unrelated diversification and advocates extending core competencies. Applied to investing: if you already have knowledge and experience in crypto, don't jump to trade US stocks today based on some news, buy gold tomorrow after watching a video, and chase some new concept the day after. Build your core portfolio in the field you understand best; other assets serve as hedges and supplements, don't put the cart before the horse.
In summary: **This video is seriously clickbait and reverses Saylor's core Bitcoin viewpoint — Saylor is not telling you not to buy Bitcoin; he is telling you to buy Bitcoin because AI cannot create more Bitcoin. The $15 billion financing story is true but exaggerated; ChatGPT is an auxiliary tool, not the main actor. The two sentences worth remembering from the video are: use AI to amplify your information processing ability, not to compete with it in diligence; deepen your expertise in what you understand, don't be led around by every hot topic. Your current pace — holding core BTC/ETH/SOL positions, adding on dips, and small contract trades for swings — fully aligns with this thinking. There's no need to change anything because of a distorted, edited video."Bitcoin surged 25% over the week, and BTC is approaching 80,000. There are a few things worth calmly examining this position. 1. The exam site is near 80,000 yuan. 82,000 is the 50-week moving average and also the zone where many trapped positions are uneven. Historically, there have been 11 bear market bottom rebounds, and 10 times the reversal was confirmed only after breaking above the 50-week moving average. There is a high probability of resistance here. 2. Whales are selling off. Over the past three days, whale addresses have sold a total of 7,700 BTC, about $577 million. Large funds are taking advantage of the situation to sell off. 3. Stock game with no new money. Short positions were liquidated by over 3 billion yuan, but the new entrants were mainly leveraged longs, not spot demand. IFP indicators have turned bullish, and leverage can push prices up quickly or amplify pullbacks. 4. Wyckoff structure: Stage C. The 57,800 rebound so far is a natural rebound after the spring, but stage C often comes with an ultimate test, a pullback confirmation, and then a real upward phase. Be wary of the subsequent wide-ranging consolidation! 5. The long-short ratio is nearly even. 50.22:49.78, the old short was replaced by the new short after clearing at a high level, and both sides resumed betting on the market. 6. Leveraged long positions are being liquidated. Leveraged long positions are accumulating above 78,300-79,000, with 547 million long liquidations triggered. Falling below 77,000, the probability of stampede acceleration increases. 7. The time window is tightening. Next week, the PCE (August 26) and Jackson Hole (August 28) are approaching, putting the macro liquidity narrative under scrutiny. There are only a few days left in the window period. Summary: There's a high chance of getting around 80,000$SPY S&P 500 ended a three-week winning streak, falling 1.43% this week. Although it rebounded 0.43% to 7674 points on Friday, the real trouble suppressing valuations is the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.72% and the 30-year to 5.26%. My strategy: do not chase highs in the short term, observe around 7700 first; if yields continue to rise, the index will still face pullback pressure, so wait for stabilization in the 7500-7550 range before gradually building positions. The AI and earnings logic remain intact, but the market is now seriously calculating the "interest rate bill."Saw a very interesting move.
The whale "first set 10 big targets," and during the bullish run that pulled BTC up to 74,000 on August 19, he made $20 million in one trade. Then on August 21, he opened a short position of 83 BTC at $74,553. That trade lost 6.28 million, but considering the previous profits, the net gain was still 13.72 million. Last week he was still making money going long, this week he started going short.
What does this indicate?
It shows that even those who made money in this rally are flipping to short at the top. The whale himself is uncertain whether the price can continue to rise from this level.
But on the other hand, the data is completely opposite. Bitcoin spot ETFs have had net inflows for five consecutive days, with $300 million flowing in on August 22 alone. The cumulative net inflow this week reached $1.9178 billion, setting a new weekly inflow record. BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day inflow of $230 million. Institutions are buying, and buying aggressively.
More importantly, the structure of this rally is different from before. Futures liquidation volume hit a record, but open interest (OI) is simultaneously declining. This indicates that this price increase is not driven by new leverage being opened, but by shorts being liquidated and passively bought up. Existing capital is pushing the price, not new capital entering the market.
Who is right? The whale is flipping short, ETFs are buying heavily. Both sides are betting, so one must be wrong.
Short positions have been mostly cleared, but ETFs continue to see inflows. If the whale's short is just a short-term probe, the rally can still continue upward. If he really sees some signal, 75,000 might be the stage top.【0822 Flash Crash Review】
Today (2026-08-22), Bitcoin's decline was not caused by a single negative factor, but rather a concentrated release of four combined forces: “high overbought levels + crowded leverage + regulatory black swan + macro tightening,” representing a typical high-leverage market "flash crash-style correction."
Market Situation and Direct Triggers
• Around noon, BTC rapidly plunged, triggering approximately $1.49 billion in 24-hour liquidations across the entire network's contracts, with the vast majority being long liquidations. Open contracts evaporated about $3 billion within minutes, creating a chain reaction of "drop → long liquidations → further drop."
• One of the triggers was the news of two Binance executives being detained at a UAE airport (involving an investigation into fund channels), which sparked a re-pricing of centralized exchange and regulatory risks.
• Technically, BTC had previously surged from 60,000 to 78,000–79,000, with RSI reaching 85 indicating severe overbought conditions. The 79,000–80,000 range was a prior dense trading resistance zone, naturally prompting profit-taking.
Underlying Macro Background
• On the eve of the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Federal Reserve expressed high uncertainty; the U.S. real interest rate (10Y TIPS) remained high at over 2.3%. The market had speculated on rate cuts but has now swung back to a "hawkish/delayed" stance, compressing risk asset valuation anchors.
• Concurrent weakness in U.S. stocks and amplified cross-asset correlations increased risk-off selling pressure in the crypto market, indicating this was not purely an internal crypto issue.
$DOGE $TRUMP $SOL Good mindset — Market analysis 🐮🐮
BTC drops → Altcoins crash → OI gets washed out → Top 50 chips hold firm → Price recovers first.
These coins are the most worth studying.
Because truly strong altcoins don’t rise the most when BTC goes up, but when BTC deleverages, market makers still refuse to give up their chips.
Today, when BTC suddenly dropped, Binance altcoins almost instantly waterfall crashed, which actually exposed the truth of this altcoin market cycle: many gains are not from a spot bull market, but from leverage + thin liquidity.
BTC is the risk anchor of Crypto. Once it plunges sharply, contract liquidations, quant risk reduction, and market makers withdrawing bids happen simultaneously, causing small coin order books to instantly become empty.
So next time, don’t just look at who falls the hardest; I actually watch who recovers first. Crypto is gradually moving beyond the idea of simply creating digital versions of existing assets. The more interesting development is happening underneath the market: stablecoins tokenized assets and DeFi are increasingly becoming connected pieces of the same financial infrastructure. That shift is easy to miss because it doesn't always produce the biggest candles on a price chart. ◆ Stablecoins Are Becoming the Settlement Layer Stablecoins are increasingly being used as the medium through whic$BTC is not moving on hype alone. The money is coming back. Bitcoin pushed above $77K this week, and the interesting part is what’s happening behind the price. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $1.61B from Monday through Thursday, with Thursday alone bringing roughly $606M. That was the strongest daily inflow since May. That changes how I look at this rally. When $BTC moves higher while institutional ETF demand is accelerating, the move has a stronger foundation than a simple leverage-drive#BTC continues its strength, can the capital flow sustain?
Just took a look at the market, BTC has pulled back from 79,500 to around 77,000, after rising from 64,000 to nearly 80,000 in a week, up more than 20%, so a correction is normal.
The logic behind this rally is actually quite clear:
It initially ignited from a short squeeze. Over the past few days, the entire market liquidated over $3 billion, shorts were forced to cover, pushing prices higher and higher. But the key turning point is that the capital structure has changed.
From August 17-21, the combined net inflow into US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs was $2.615 billion, marking the strongest single-week performance since October 2025. On August 20 alone, the inflow was $826 million. Institutional funds are taking over, shifting from "short squeeze-driven" to "spot buying-driven."
Market opinions are also interesting:
CNBC host Jim Cramer was selling off Bitcoin weeks ago citing quantum computing risks, but now he’s advising viewers to "buy directly." Long-term bear Peter Schiff calls the break above 72,000 a "fake breakout" and suggests selling BTC to buy gold.
To be honest,
when Cramer turns bullish, people get a bit nervous—his reputation as a "contrarian indicator" is well known. But in the short term, whether ETF funds can continue to absorb profit-taking is the key to the quality of this rally. Let’s first see if 77,000 can hold.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE Account Position Divergence Radar
First, separate the sides and bets; new information only arises when the account direction and top positions are inconsistent.
$DOGE account numbers consistently lean long, but the top position ratio remains below 1, so the numerical advantage hasn't translated into a top position advantage. Price is rising while positions are shrinking; interpret this phase as a reduction rebound. The top position ratio needs to recover to 1 before position weight starts to align with account sentiment.
$SUI account numbers and top position weights are still not aligned; keep the divergence label for now and let the next layer handle price and position. A 15-minute decline accompanied by risk exposure contraction—observe the reduction speed first; do not label it as new short positions. The account structure is still in flux; price and open interest will determine which side truly gains the advantage.
$WLD different account metrics stand on opposite sides; currently treat this as divergence without amplifying any particular proportion. Price is moving down while positions increase, so this is not a simple overall reduction in positions in the short term. Divergence markets tend to fluctuate; wait for the top positions and price response to fully align before making a judgment.#BTC continues its strong momentum, can the capital flow sustain?
I am the mid-term intelligence analyst. BTC surged to around 78,000, honestly quite fierce, but we need to clear the accounts — not all this money is "new money."
First, looking at real cash: US stock spot ETFs have had net inflows for several consecutive days, with $307 million flowing in on August 21 alone, and BlackRock's IBIT taking in $239 million; institutional replenishment is real. But on the other hand, "short liquidations" contributed most of the firepower in this rally, with $3 billion worth of shorts liquidated in a single day, which is a one-time fuel that will burn out.
Mid-term, I see it as "strong but unstable." If ETFs can maintain daily inflows of two to three hundred million, the capital flow can hold, and BTC can stabilize above 70,000; but if the Fed stays hawkish and US bond yields rise again, those institutional inflows can quickly turn into outflows, as happened with a net outflow of $4.5 billion in the first half of last year. Plus, August is historically BTC's weakest month, so mid-term, don't get overly bullish; a pullback that doesn't break 70,000 is the real signal that capital can hold.
In short: short-term funds are hot, mid-term depends on ETFs not breaking flow, otherwise it's just high-level turnover after a short squeeze.
$BTC
$ETH
$DOGE Justin Sun won a crucial round in his legal battle with World Liberty Financial, with the court ruling that his personal claim would continue to be heard in open court rather than proceeding to closed-door arbitration. 🔥 World Liberty originally hoped to transfer the entire dispute to arbitration and restrict the publication of documents. However, according to information disclosed by Justin Sun, the judge rejected this approach, at least regarding the portion of his personal charges, and the trial will remain transparent. This detail deserves more attention than the disputed amount itself. Justin Sun's accusations cover multiple aspects: $WLFI control over the token, the operation of USD1, lending issues, and World Liberty's financial capacity when facing a massive judgment. If these issues were raised in open court, they would receive broader scrutiny. It should be made clear that this is far from Sun Yuchen's ultimate victory. But from a strategic perspective, avoiding the entire case from degenerating into closed-door arbitration has indeed given him a substantial advantage—his arguments can at least be considered in more transparent judicial procedures. Background: Justin Sun claims to have invested $45 million and is seeking hundreds of millions in compensation. Such a controversy of this scale is destined not to end quickly. The current situation feels more like the prelude to a protracted war rather than the end. For the market, the outcome of this case could affect short-term sentiment in the WLFI token and related DeFi ecosystem. Public hearings mean more details will gradually emerge, and any disclosures involving token control or stablecoin operations could trigger volatility. ThrowThe U.S. composite PMI for August soared to 56, the highest since April 2022, and the third-quarter GDP growth forecast doubled to 3%—I stared at this data and laughed for a long time, confirming one thing: the nine people who voted to keep rates unchanged at the Fed are probably messaging each other in their offices, saying, "It's over, how is this going to end?" 📊 Let's look at the data first: the service sector is sprinting, manufacturing is lagging behind. On August 21, S&P Global released data in three sentences: composite PMI 56.0, expected 54, previous value 54.5—the highest since April 2022. Services PMI was 56.8, expected 54, previous value 54.6—a 20-month high. Manufacturing PMI was 53.2, expected 53.9, previous value 53.9—a five-month low. To put it plainly: Americans are spending crazily on services (travel, dining, finance), but their willingness to buy goods is cooling down. The economy hasn't collapsed; instead, it's accelerating—this is the last "good news" for the Fed, which wants to cut rates. CME FedWatch shows the probability of holding rates steady in September fell from 67.3% to 59.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike rose from 32.7% to 40.1%. The probability of at least one rate hike before year-end remains as high as 68%. Even worse, at the July FOMC, 9 votes in favor and 3 against kept rates unchanged, with all 3 opposing the vote advocating rate hikes. Now that the PMI data is exploding like this, those three people are probably writing emails: "I told you a long time ago, didn't I?" " ⚔️ Man$BTC
【Trend-following Short】First Choice
· Entry: Open short near 77,200 - 77,300 on rebound.
· Stop Loss: 77,550.
· Take Profit: First target 76,600, second target 76,440 (previous low).
【Oversold Rebound Catching】Cautious
· Entry: Open long near 76,500 - 76,600 on pullback.
· Stop Loss: 76,300 (must exit if breaks previous low).
· Take Profit: Near 77,000 (quick in and out).
【Core Reminder】
Currently oversold with rebound demand, but overall bearish bias. Keep position light, use stop loss, take profits quickly, never hold through losses.During the BTC $80,000 retest, $500 million in long liquidations occurred within 15 minutes, and during the same period, inflows worth $1.17 trillion were confirmed through spot ETFs. Is this trend, where long positions are being liquidated and spot buying happening simultaneously, is it simply an increase in volatility, or is it a sign that the position structure itself is changing? Reports have emerged that BlackRock purchased 11,098 BTC and 132,769 ETH over two days. However, these are not BlackRock's own investments but investor funds flowing into IBIT and ETHA spot ETFs. In other words, it is more accurate to view this as structural demand inflow through ETF channels rather than directional bets by individual institutions. - Liquidation event: While BTC fluctuated around $80,000, a long liquidation worth about $500 million occurred within 15 minutes. This means that leverage long positions were excessively accumulated. - Inflows into Spot ETFs: During the same period, large inflows of funds were made into spot ETFs. The simultaneous occurrence of liquidations and inflows has helped to overheat the derivatives market.摘要$BTC $ETH 2026年8月20-22日，加密市场第二大资产以太坊（ETH）上演级别为“史诗级”的逼空行情：报价先后突破2400、2440、2500美元整数关口，最高触及2546.78美元，创下自2026年5月以来的三个月新高。与此前“比特币独大”的单边上涨行情不同，本轮以太坊突破更具标志性意义：其上涨动力并非单纯依赖比特币的情绪带动，而是源于自身基本面与结构性资金流入的共振——美国现货以太坊ETF创下近10个月最强单日募资记录、链上质押率创历史新高、结构性衍生品轧空行情叠加，共同推动ETH走出独立强趋势。 截至目前，ETH的24小时成交额已突破16.93亿美元，市值回升至2927.11亿美元，稳居全球加密资产第二位，同时重回全球主流资产市值前72位，技术面上自本轮周期回调以来首次重新站上周线EMA50“黄金线”。一系列数据显示，本轮上涨并非短期投机驱动，而是机构级资金基于基本面的长期布局信号——标志着市场风格，正由此前的比特币大盘独涨，转向公链生态、DeFi、Layer2等板块全面繁荣的“结构型行情”阶段。 一、市场行情复盘：从箱体震荡到趋势性突破 在金融市场的技术分析逻ETFs attracted $2.6 billion this week. As I review the data, I increasingly feel that BlackRock is playing a big strategic game.
Five consecutive days of inflows: $BTC ETF $1.92 billion, $ETH ETF $69.7 million, totaling $2.61 billion — the strongest week in ten months. BlackRock alone took 79% of this. On August 21, BTC ETF inflows were $307 million, with IBIT contributing $239 million. August 20 was even more remarkable, with IBIT taking 82% of the $606 million inflow. IBIT's cumulative net inflow has reached $62.427 billion.
On the ETH side, there were positive inflows every day for five days, with no outflows. ETHA had a single-day inflow of $122.12 million on August 19, with Fidelity's FETH following with $36.54 million. ETH ETF total assets are $12.06 billion, accounting for 4.51% of ETH's market cap. Additionally, SOL ETF inflows were $14.58 million, and XRP ETF inflows were $13.24 million — institutional demand is spreading from BTC to altcoins.
BTC ETF total assets have surged to $90.16 billion, accounting for 6.1% of BTC's market cap. Now, if IBIT sneezes, BTC catches a cold. But inflows are rocket fuel; once it reverses, it will be a free fall.
#ETF #IBIT #ETHA #BlackRock #InstitutionalAccumulation #财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？
Plush toys are the strongest growth driver this year: 9.82 billion in the first half, +60%, accounting for 57.2% of total revenue (company interim report). For every 100 yuan sold, 57 yuan comes from plush toys, shifting from a supporting role to the absolute main force, completely changing POPMART's revenue structure. This is not a short-term trend but a category migration.
It transforms IP from "display cabinet collectibles" to "daily companions," expanding the audience from core players to the general public. The Star People series can reach 2.65 billion, with plush form playing a crucial role. The company is also promoting POP BAKERY and City Playground, expanding IP into a lifestyle. Plush ASP is higher than blind boxes, which also raises the average transaction value and store efficiency.
A double-edged sword: short-term it supports incremental growth and drives speed; long-term, beware of category singularity. If plush sales slow down, the overall story needs to be reassessed. The focus in the second half of the year is on how plush performs in Asia-Pacific and North America, and whether new products can take over from the Star People series.
The category's success itself validates POPMART's IP operation capability: the same IP can open new audiences by changing carriers. In the long run, category expansion is more valuable than a single category hit, but the premise is that each new generation of products can maintain popularity. Plush is not the end point but the starting point of IP lifestyle integration; playgrounds, bakery, and collaborations are all extension directions. Category expansion can raise the ceiling, but every link tests the supply chain and IP operation capabilities (market page 09992.HK).
$POPMART 🚀 Trump Coin surged 94% in one spike! It jumped straight from 1.7 to 3.4 USD, hitting a new high since March 21, with market cap back above 1.9 billion USD.
🔥 Three drivers combined: heavy short positions piled up, once the price broke through it triggered massive liquidations, with over 30 million USD in TRUMP liquidations in the past 24 hours. Rumors circulate that the Trump family will issue a new token on Robinhood; although unconfirmed, it’s enough to ignite FOMO. BTC broke through 75,000, ETH pulled above 2,400, and political meme coins naturally get scooped up by funds in this environment.
But above 3.5 USD there’s little short liquidity left, so the short squeeze effect may be nearing its end. Circulating market cap is 1.9 billion USD, still far from the peak of 34 billion. 80% of tokens are locked up, so the cost to pump is much lower than back then.
The short squeeze fuel is running out fast; whether it can hit 4 USD depends on if there’s a new story to catch it.👇
$TRUMP Let's briefly review what happened this week.
This market rally started when the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term bond repurchases, which directly pushed down long-term yields and released liquidity, driving a broad rebound in risk assets. Bitcoin challenged 80,000 on Monday, while Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin also surged sharply.
During this process, shorts were heavily liquidated, and spot ETFs saw significant net inflows, representing a typical "liquidity-driven + short squeeze" market.
However, starting today, there have been pullbacks and wicks both up and down, with leveraged longs and shorts both getting stopped out, indicating increased market volatility. In the short term, the macro environment is still influenced by Treasury repurchases, but funds are beginning to consolidate. The true trend needs to be observed to see if it can hold steady.
This rally is a rapid surge driven by macro liquidity, moving very fast, but technically most assets have not yet truly turned into strong bulls (many are still stuck at previous highs or resistance zones).
A real bull market usually consolidates and pulls back before continuing to rise. The most important thing now is to "wait for signals and control leverage."
Focus on mainstream coins first; altcoins will follow the overall market. In the short term, it's best to stay on the sidelines and act only when there is a clear direction. The parent company of Yangtze Memory plans to raise ¥33 billion for implementation, with a gross margin as high as 76.8% reshaping NAND pricing rules, but capital-intensive capacity expansion is disrupting the long-term supply-demand balance of pure flash memory targets such as $SNDK.
Market facts show that the average NAND selling price in Q1 2026 rose 173% compared to the previous year's average, driving quarterly revenue to ¥47 billion. In terms of driving factors, strong demand for data center SSDs from AI servers ranks first, full factory capacity second, and the subsequent expansion pace causing supply pressure backflow is the critical third variable.
The trigger for the upward scenario lies in enterprise SSD demand continuing to exceed expectations. If products like PE522 accelerate penetration in LLM inference and KV Cache offloading scenarios, maintaining high average prices, pure NAND targets such as $SNDK will receive performance support. The observation variable here is the verification cycle of cloud vendors' purchase orders; if delivery is stable, the upward trend will continue.
The oscillation scenario holds when supply and demand maintain a fragile balance. The 76.8% high gross margin will induce industry follow-up capacity expansion, but short-term delays in equipment arrival will limit shipment growth. In this scenario, close attention must be paid to month-on-month price changes; if the average price increase narrows but does not turn negative, the market will maintain sideways digestion at a high valuation range.
The downward scenario is driven by collective capacity expansion caused by capital expansion. Once the parent company's ¥33 billion fundraising translates into capacity implementation, combined with competitors catching up in wafer bonding technology, it is likely to trigger the next round of supply surplus. If the average price plummets and the gross margin quickly falls from 76.8%, targets highly exposed to the Flash cycle will face valuation compression.
A signal of judgment failure lies in the shift of core competitive dimensions. If the competition focus shifts from pure bit density and capacity scale to enterprise-level firmware certification and specific customer binding, or if the adoption speed of enterprise SSDs is slower than expected, the profit inflection point will occur earlier or later.
The key observation variables to watch in the next 7 days: the speed of enterprise SSD certification advancement among end customers, and the industry's stance on expansion plans and capital expenditure adjustments.
#财报观察员：泡泡玛特增长换挡，多IP能否接力？ #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
1. U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion, Treasury expands long-term bond repurchases. The market begins to worry that more liquidity may be needed in the future to sustain the debt system, causing the dollar to weaken.
2. Dalio recommends underweighting bonds, allocating about 10% to 15% of the portfolio to gold, and holding a small amount of BTC. The logic behind this is straightforward: bonds depend on the credit of the issuing country, while gold and BTC are not liabilities of any government.
3. Looking back at the 1970s, high inflation and fiscal pressure caused the real purchasing power of U.S. debt to decline, making gold an important outlet for preserving value. Today, gold and BTC rising together also carries a similar currency depreciation trade characteristic.
4. Bonds will not immediately lose their safe-haven status, but their safety is being repriced. If the dollar continues to weaken and long-term bond yields remain high, the share of non-sovereign assets in portfolios may increase.
$XAU $XAUT #沃尔玛在美销售放缓，消费压力受关注
Walmart $WMT needs to generate at least $10.9 billion in free cash flow in the second half of the year
This is actually not part of the financial report, but something I inferred from a statement made by management during the earnings call
"Free cash flow for Walmart this fiscal year is expected to achieve double-digit growth"
In the previous fiscal year, Walmart $WMT's full-year free cash flow was $14.923 billion
Based on a minimum 10% growth expectation, this fiscal year also needs to reach at least $16.415 billion
So
Subtracting the results from the first half of the year, we get about $10.9 billion in free cash flow needed, a year-over-year increase of about 36.4%
This means an additional $2.906 billion needs to be generated
Looking at the purple section in my image, you should be able to see that the required year-over-year growth rate is as high as 36%
I really don't think Walmart can achieve this growth in the next two quarters
The only two recent instances of over 36% year-over-year growth happened after the 2022 inventory crisis, but this time there is no such motive or background
"Management said the main factors are strategic projects and inflation, with no obvious inventory risk"
So this time, Walmart needs to generate nearly $2.9 billion more free cash flow while maintaining high capital expenditures and without significant inventory reduction space"Just 6 Points Away"
Weekend chat, going wherever the conversation leads.
This week, the A-share market followed a very typical script: first giving you hope, then crushing it right before your eyes. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index surged 1.41% to close at 3982.65. On Tuesday, it peaked at 3994.18, just 5.82 points shy of the 4000-point psychological barrier—not even 6 points, but it just wouldn’t break through. Even more frustrating was the downward gap on July 13; it was just one point away from being filled, but the market stopped right there and then took a sharp downturn.
On Wednesday, it plunged 95.88 points, a 2.4% drop, breaking below 3900 and hitting a low of 3879.58. The ChiNext board was even worse, crashing 6.26% in a single day, breaking through the 3700, 3600, and 3500 levels all in one day, like missing a step on the stairs. The day before, there were still 110 stocks hitting the daily limit up; by Wednesday, only 38 limit-ups remained, while limit-downs surged to 130 at one point. Sentiment went straight from KTV party mode to ICU. Thursday and Friday saw a slight recovery at the lows, with Friday closing at 3905.2. The weekly chart showed two consecutive bearish candles; the Shanghai Composite fell 0.56% for the week, with the STAR 50 index taking the hardest hit, down 3.73%.
In short, it was like pouring cold water right at the doorstep of 4000 points. I actually think this isn’t a bad thing. A sudden surge all the way up would be risky; this kind of rally that gets pushed back shows that trapped positions and profit-taking are being cleared out, and exchanging chips is healthier than a hard ceiling.
……
The most entertaining part this week was still the new stocks. Yushu Technology went public, with a single lot’s opening price gain exceeding ¥470,000; Pinzhun Laser’s single lot gain was over ¥450,000. I wrote about Pinzhun before—its opening high hit ¥1300, theoretically worth ¥550,000 per lot. Just a few days later, here comes another ¥470,000-level jackpot.
But then both stocks dropped sharply afterward. This is the reality: winning the lottery with the allotment, standing guard when chasing high prices. A single lot worth ¥470,000 means millions who didn’t get allotments watch others get rich, and those who can’t resist rushing in to catch the falling knife end up paying the final price of the wealth story. STAR Market IPOs have small circulating shares and high issue prices, so they’re naturally a playground for speculative capital. I just watch this kind of hype from the sidelines; the value proposition is too low.
……
On the policy front, two things are worth noting this week.
One is that the August LPR remained unchanged: 3.0% for one-year and 3.5% for five years and above, unchanged for 15 consecutive months. But the central bank has been active behind the scenes: seven-day reverse repos have had zero injections continuously, overnight reverse repos have shifted from an end-of-month emergency tool to a mid-month routine operation, and DR001 has been steady in the 1.35%-1.4% range. In short, policy rates are steady, liquidity is ample, and the approach is precise and gradual. Institutions expect a possible rate cut of 10 basis points plus a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut around the end of Q3, with the LPR following suit.
The other is that on August 21, the Ministry of Finance, the central bank, and the financial regulatory commission upgraded policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination. Since January, six policy tools have cumulatively supported over ¥20 trillion in new credit in the first seven months, benefiting 6.22 million enterprises and 113 million residents. This time, the support is increased: credit card installment consumption now qualifies for interest subsidies, including car purchases and home renovations; the number of participating institutions expanded from about 100 to about 400; the interest-subsidized loan cap for small and micro enterprises rose from ¥50 million to ¥75 million; and the cap for personal consumer loan subsidies increased from ¥3000 to ¥5000.
This is real money directly supporting consumption. I usually never use installment payments, but after reading this, I’m tempted to try a small installment just to test the waters—though it’s just a thought; I’m used to the peace of mind that comes with being debt-free.
……
Overseas developments are more intense than domestic ones.
The Iran war has entered its sixth month, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude oil has risen for six out of eight weeks. Even worse are refined oil products: since the war began, European diesel prices have surged 70%, and U.S. gasoline prices have jumped 60%. The Northern Hemisphere is heading into winter soon, and this energy inflation is a short-term chokehold that won’t be easily swallowed.
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields have soared to multi-year highs, prompting the Treasury to act. It announced doubling the size of long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion each time. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen even appeared on TV to calm markets, saying she has a "big toolbox" to suppress yields. The Treasury stepping in to support the market is something unimaginable in the past and shows how official pressure is mounting amid this selling wave.
At the Federal Reserve, new Chair Powell has been in office just over three months. The July meeting marked the fifth consecutive hold, keeping rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but with three dissenting votes all calling for hikes. Note carefully: the discussion is about rate hikes, not cuts—the world has truly changed. The market has basically priced in a 25 basis point hike in December. Next Thursday is the Jackson Hole symposium, where Powell will deliver his first keynote. But he’s known for giving no forward guidance, so it will likely be a Tai Chi performance again—don’t expect to hear anything definitive.
U.S. stocks also struggled this week: the Nasdaq 100 fell for the fifth straight day; Walmart posted its largest single-day drop since 2022, with the slowest same-store sales growth in six years. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index fell for seven consecutive days. Oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields are pushing up together, and global equity assets are paying the price.
……
Three things to watch next week:
1. Nvidia’s earnings report on August 26, which is basically a thermometer for the AI market. A-shares tech sectors like optical modules and computing power will follow its lead. Tech stocks have already taken a beating this week, so we’ll see if this report offers some relief.
2. The Jackson Hole symposium from August 27-29, with the highlight being Powell’s speech on Friday. Also, on Wednesday, the U.S. July core PCE data will be released, expected to show a 3.3% year-over-year increase, marking the 65th consecutive month above the 2% target—a truly surreal figure.
3. The peak of mid-year report disclosures in A-shares. Additionally, 29 companies will have share unlocks next week, totaling about ¥18.384 billion in market value, with Monday being the most concentrated pressure day. If you hold stocks with upcoming unlocks, check the dates in advance.
……
On Saturday, I cooked a pot of winter melon pork rib soup, went swimming in the afternoon, and came back to find the cat had taken over half the keyboard. This article was typed out from between the cat’s paws. That’s all for the weekend. Have a great weekend, everyone.The weekend market is actually livelier than a weekday—is that reasonable? From Monday to Saturday, the market would feel like a holiday, BTC and ETH would line up, altcoins would all lie flat, and watching the market would make you drowsy. But now everything has changed. Liquidity was actually maxed out over the weekend, BTC and ETH started to fluctuate within a narrow range, and funds were running wild everywhere. Several new faces that emerged last week, such as BEAT and BICO, wanted to continue performing this week, but market attention was no longer on them. Because funds were too abundant, ZEC suddenly started to surge, directly drawing attention away from BTC and ETH. Whether it can break through to $1,000 today has become a hot topic for many. TRUMP also started to surge, rising 50% in a single day—such explosive momentum is rare on weekends. OKB was not to be outdone, rising 10%. Although it didn't look as aggressive as other coins, its trend was stable, pushing straight up to around $115. From what I've observed, OKB has been a bit behind BTC's pace a few days ago, maybe because it had risen too much before, but at this level, I think there's still some momentum, though its elasticity is not as good as other coins. The core of this weekend rally is not BTC or ETH, but the switching between sectors. Funds have not chosen to stay in large caps, but instead chase those with narrative, emotional, and elastic assets, indicating that risk appetite is actually divergent rather than contracting. The logic behind a bullish bias is: liquidity hasn't dried up over the weekend; instead, incremental funds are entering the market, willing to push up volatility stocks, which shows the point[Pharaoh Market Watch]
Pharaoh throws down the cup: Samsung this round basically treated the Korean stock market like building blocks to dismantle and rebuild!
Yesterday Samsung dropped a bombshell: a 2026 shareholder return plan sized between 90 trillion to 110 trillion KRW (about $6.5-8 billion), the largest in Korean history! Adding the 29.3 trillion already executed in the past two years, the three-year cumulative return is 120-140 trillion KRW, more than 5 times the 2020 plan.
Where’s the money coming from? The AI chip money printer is smoking—Q2 semiconductor operating profit hit 89.2 trillion KRW, an 18-fold year-over-year surge, with a full-year estimate of 380 trillion.
How will it be distributed? In Q3, 30 trillion KRW cash dividend will be paid first, with details finalized by the end of October; the remaining 60-80 trillion KRW will be reviewed in January next year, possibly increasing dividends or share buybacks for cancellation; another 15 trillion KRW buyback will be used as employee benefits.
Market reaction is quite honest: stock price rose 3.87%, but fell after hours—because some expected 200 trillion, so the upper limit wasn’t fully satisfied. But Samsung’s current P/E ratio is only 4 times, a bargain! This round of returns is the fuse for valuation repair.
What’s the impact on crypto? Samsung plus SK Hynix combined will return over 150 trillion KRW to the market, shifting memory stocks from “burning cash to expand production” to “stable profit distribution,” fundamentally changing valuation logic. Bitcoin is still hovering around $75,000, won’t directly pump the market, but as AI infrastructure progresses smoothly, risk assets’ sentiment warming up is a good sign.
Good trades come to those who wait, Pharaoh will keep watching, you stay steady. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 BTC's rebound this week can no longer be simply understood as "a rebound after a big drop." On Friday, it once surged to around $79,000, with gains exceeding 20% this week. More importantly, funds are starting to return: US spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $1.6 billion this week, with over $517 million in a single day on August 20, and the latest data released on August 21 reaching about $606 million, marking several consecutive days of net inflows. This points to an important change: this time, it's not just retail investors chasing gains; institutional funds have also started buying again. Moreover, several catalysts for this rally have emerged simultaneously: the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases, sparking market expectations of improved liquidity; Trump continues to push for crypto regulatory legislation; Meanwhile, a large number of short positions were forced to close out, further amplifying BTC's rise. So the real question now is no longer "Can BTC still rise?" Rather: "Can these funds be sustained?" I think we need to calm down here. Continuous ETF inflows are certainly a good thing, but if capital inflows start to drop significantly later while BTC continues to rally rapidly, it means prices may be outpacing the capital. Conversely, if ETFs continue to see net inflows in the coming weeks and BTC can hold above $70,000–$75,000, then the nature of this rally may truly change. A price breakout only proves strong buying interest. Only when funds continue to flow in can it prove that the market is sustainable. So now, what I'm most concerned about is noWhat exactly happened to $BTC BTC these past two days? Can it still surge to 80,000?
BTC finally stopped pretending to be dead these past two days.
On August 20th, it rose about 5.3%, and on the 21st, it continued to climb about 7.3%, reaching as high as around $79,300.
In just two or three days, it jumped straight from over 60,000 back to the doorstep of 80,000.
But I think the core of this rally boils down to three words:
Short squeeze, ETF buying, range breakout.
1️⃣ Shorts got squeezed hard
After BTC broke out of the six-week sideways consolidation range, a large number of short positions stopped out and liquidated, which in turn fueled the rally.
The first half was driven by capital, and the latter half somewhat:
The shorts ended up fueling the bulls.
2️⃣ ETF funds have returned
This week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a clear inflow, with a cumulative net inflow of about $1.6 billion from Monday to Thursday, and on Thursday alone about $606 million.
This is more important than just looking at the candlesticks.
Retail shouting “bull return” is worthless; institutions buying with real money is what counts.
3️⃣ BTC finally broke out of the long-term consolidation
It had been stuck around 60,000 for so long, both bulls and bears were exhausted.
Now that it has broken upward, it means the market has finally chosen a direction.
But here’s the question:
Having risen to 78,000–80,000, is it still worth chasing?
My answer: I don’t recommend mindless chasing.
Because the rise was too fast these past two days, short-term profit-taking has clearly increased, and after today’s peak, a pullback has started.
Next, focus on three key levels:
🔴 $79,300–80,000
The most critical resistance zone.
If it can hold above 80,000 with volume, rather than just spiking and then getting pushed back, the upside space may continue to open.
🟢 $75,000–76,000
The normal pullback observation zone.
After such a big rise, a correction here would actually be healthy.
If it holds here on low volume and then moves up again, it indicates a quality breakout.
⚠️ $72,000–73,000
This is what I consider an important defense level.
If it falls back below here, the previous breakout might turn out to be a false breakout, and the probability of BTC returning to the consolidation range will significantly increase.
So my judgment going forward is simple:
Around 78,000: don’t chase.
Hold above 80,000: stay bullish.
Pull back and stabilize near 75,000: even better.
Break below 72,000: start defending.
Also, although the funding rate has turned positive again, it hasn’t reached an extremely crazy level yet.
In other words:
The bulls are getting excited, but not completely crazy.
So I don’t think this rally is over yet.
What really needs to be tested now is not:
“Can BTC touch 80,000?”
But:
“Can BTC turn 80,000 into support?”
If it holds, the market will start looking for higher levels.
If it doesn’t hold, it will first shake out those who chased in these past few days.
The most interesting thing about crypto is this:
When it was over 60,000, no one dared to buy.
At 80,000, suddenly the whole world is asking:
“Is it still possible to get in now?”
The market loves to punish those who rush in at times like this.
#BTC延续强势，资金流能否持续？ #美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温 Family, the PMI data just came out, and the disagreement over the September rate hike has heated up again.
The US August S&P Global Composite PMI hit a four-year high, with the services sector expanding stronger than expected. Although the manufacturing PMI was below expectations, it still remained in expansion territory. The economy hasn't clearly slowed down and is still running. This set of data provides new grounds for the three dissenting votes against rate hikes at the Fed's July meeting—if the economy is this strong, how can inflation come down?
There are indeed signs of cooling in CPI and PPI and weakening employment, but the strengthening PMI suggests demand resilience may delay the pace of inflation decline. Data conflicts, and so does the market. The probability of a September rate hike had dropped below 30% due to non-farm payrolls and CPI but is now rising again.
For BTC, the impact of this data is quite complex. In the short term, a stronger PMI will push up US Treasury yields, putting pressure on risk assets. On the other hand, if the market believes a strong economy can support corporate profits, risk appetite might remain high. BTC just broke above 75,000; if Treasury yields continue to rise from here, the pressure from profit-taking won't be small.
Family, the direction remains the same, but the path won't be so smooth. Let's wait for the market to digest this data before commenting further. Share your thoughts in the comments on whether you think PMI will change the policy path in September. Have a great weekend. $BTC $ETH BTC Market Analysis
Recently, BTC has experienced a valuation recovery rally, with the price quickly breaking out from a low-level consolidation range and once reaching the $79,500 mark, hitting a new high in over three months. Unlike previous rallies driven purely by sentiment, the core logic of this rise is shifting from "trading interest rate cut expectations" to "trading economic soft landing," with noticeable changes in capital structure and market stability.
On the macro level, the latest US August composite PMI recorded 56.0, the highest since April 2022. The services PMI surged to 56.8, far exceeding expectations, indicating that the US economy's resilience is much stronger than the market anticipated. There is no recession risk, inflationary pressure is marginally easing, and soft landing expectations are strengthening. Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been revised from "aggressive cuts" to "delayed gradual cuts." This mild macro environment is most favorable for risk asset valuation recovery. US Treasury yields have oscillated down from highs, and the US dollar index has not shown a strong trend, directly boosting BTC allocation demand. Meanwhile, spot BTC ETFs ended a continuous net outflow trend, with a single-week net inflow exceeding $400 million. Leading institutional products continue to attract capital, and mid-to-long-term allocation funds are accumulating in batches at low levels, providing solid bottom support for the market.
Technically, BTC has effectively broken through the consolidation box below $70,000 that lasted for months, confirming a mid-term upward structure. Short-term resistance is concentrated in the $81,000-$82,000 range, a dense area of previous trapped positions, where the first test will likely trigger selling pressure and volatility; the core support has moved up to $75,000-$76,000, with the previous box top now converted into strong support.
In the short term, after a rapid rise, some short-term profit-taking has accumulated, requiring high-level consolidation to digest, but the overall downside space is limited. Operationally, a mid-term allocation approach is suitable. Existing positions can be held, and price pullbacks to the support range can be bought in batches to avoid blindly chasing highs at market sentiment peaks.
ETH Market Analysis
ETH is the leading force in this rally, with short-term gains significantly outperforming BTC. The price quickly rose from around $1,900 to an intraday high of $2,542, with a single-week maximum increase exceeding 33%, showing the highest elasticity and explosive power among mainstream coins. Unlike BTC’s macro-driven logic, ETH’s rise results from ecosystem fundamental improvements, capital style rotation, and market sentiment resonance.
On the fundamentals side, Ethereum ecosystem data continues to warm up. Total locked value on Layer 2 networks steadily climbs, daily transaction counts and active addresses rise in tandem, and on-chain fee revenue grows month-over-month, indicating real demand recovery for ecosystem applications. Meanwhile, total staking volume continues to increase, with over one-third of circulating supply locked long-term in staking contracts, structurally shrinking supply and further amplifying price elasticity. On the capital side, after risk appetite rebounds, capital style shifts from defensive to aggressive, showing rotation from large-cap value targets to elastic assets. Spot ETH ETFs saw a single-week net inflow hitting a near ten-month high, combined with concentrated inflows from short-term speculative and retail funds, jointly driving this rally.
Technically, ETH decisively broke through the long-term strong resistance at $2,400, opening mid-term upward momentum. Short-term resistance is concentrated in the $2,700-$2,750 range, overlapping with previous trapped positions and key Fibonacci levels, where the first test will likely trigger selling pressure and pullback; core support lies at $2,300-$2,350, a critical short-term strength threshold. Caution is needed as US PMI exceeding expectations cooled rate cut expectations, and rising rate expectations suppress high-elasticity assets more strongly. Currently, daily-level overbought signals are obvious, and sentiment-driven positions are relatively high. Once upward momentum weakens, profit-taking pullbacks could be much larger than BTC’s.
Operationally, long-term holding without movement is not recommended. A swing trading approach is more suitable: take profits in batches when prices reach resistance zones, consider buying on dips after stabilization, control position volatility, and avoid chasing highs at peak sentiment.