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That old-fashioned chess piece forgotten by all game records suddenly crossed the entire board within twenty-four hours—$859, a high point enough to make the audience stand collectively, but true connoisseurs only glanced once before continuing to analyze their variations. The ZEC fluctuation is not a random usurpation but a long-planned redeployment of forces.
Grayscale laid that revised application on the table, The Zcash ETF, four words like a silent rook advancing to the seventh rank. ETFs have never been a midgame flash but an endgame foreshadowing. Approval is a referee’s hesitation—it might open this line permanently or turn all prior investments into sunk exchange pieces.
The Ironwood upgrade changed a page in the rules: privacy pools and gate mechanisms give every unit of supply a traceable coordinate, like adding a clear mirror to a hidden chess piece. This isn’t about the gain or loss of individual pieces but reshaping the legitimacy framework of the entire board. You see, Zcash excels at playing in the shadows, and now it actively demands the chess clock to record every move—this is the most elegant form of restraint.
Eighteen percent. The hash power share of Cypherpunk miners is approaching this figure. It sounds like an inconspicuous variation in the opening, but any grandmaster knows that when the opponent’s rook and bishop overlap pressure on the same side, a one-percent deviation can decide the midgame’s direction. Concentrated hash power is scarier than a direct attack; it applies continuous pressure like a chain of pawns on the flank, slowly and steadily squeezing your space.
Now, everyone is asking: Is that promotion called the ETF effective? Is the privacy upgrade mechanism sufficient to support long-term valuation? The $859 pullback—is it an attack or a defensive move? My answer is: Don’t look at the king at that price point—the real throne awaits verification after twenty-five moves. The temporary retreat from the high is just pulling back excess forces into one’s own camp, preparing for that final endgame.
The deadliest move on the board is often the quietest. While the market debates approval risks, the piece protected by 18% hash power has already redefined its attack radius under the new rules. Until the referee’s pen falls, no one can claim the promotion is valid—but a visionary player calculated the bell toll for this moment back in the opening.
So, wait and see. This move is not a check. #zechitsokxhighThis might be a trap that most people haven't noticed.
$BTC surged from $64,000 to nearly $80,000 in just a few days and is currently hovering around $77,000.
Market sentiment has reversed again.
Shorts are starting to stop losses, bulls are beginning to celebrate wildly, and more and more people are shouting:
The bull market is back.
But precisely at this moment, I am becoming cautious.
Because the real core catalyst for this rally has not yet materialized.
The "Clear Act."
September 15th might be a key date to watch closely.
The scenario I currently see might be like this:
Phase One: False Relief
Bitcoin rebounds quickly, a large number of shorts are liquidated continuously, and the market reignites bull market expectations.
In a short time, over $3 billion in short positions were liquidated.
Everyone starts to think:
It can't go down anymore.
Phase Two: The Real Trap
After such a rapid vertical rise, a pullback to $70,000–$72,000 is not surprising.
The real danger is that those who chased at the top, thinking "this time there won't be a correction," might become the next group to be harvested.
What the market loves to do most is to give you a reversal when you believe in the trend the most.
Phase Three: The Critical Point
September 15th.
If the bill is delayed again, or the market believes the chance of passing this year continues to decline, then short-term sentiment may turn again.
At that time, the market could very well face a new round of sell-off.
Phase Four: The Real Test
But if Bitcoin can absorb the negative news, withstand the selling pressure, and reestablish a key position, then the whole logic will change.
Liquidity begins to return.
ETF buying reappears.
The market starts to price in a more favorable regulatory environment ahead of time.
By then, the nature of this rally might be completely different.
Phase Five: The Real Breakthrough
If the bill ultimately advances, and real demand begins to replace the previous short liquidations to push the market higher.
Then this rally could be far more important than it looks now.
I'm not saying the market will definitely follow this script.
I just think this is a possibility that must be closely watched next.
Because after a rise of more than 20% in a few days, the easiest thing to do is to chase the rally.
The real difficulty is to foresee where the next trap might appear.
So going forward, I will not lose all caution just because the market suddenly turns bullish.
September 15th might become a very important date for $BTC going forward.
$BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 A Bull Market Pitfall Avoidance Guide for Newcomers: Understand the Rhythm to Hold Your Chips
Newcomers, don’t rush in just yet, listen to me:
Now is not the time to blindly buy altcoins; the bloodsucking market of BTC and ETH is about to come.
This is not a guess, it’s the fixed script at the start of every bull market.
To be blunt: the short-term peak for most altcoins has already passed. Charging in now isn’t an opportunity, it’s providing liquidity for others.
Let’s take a look at history:
· In the last cycle, BTC rose from 15,000 to 31,000, dominating the market; altcoin market cap share kept falling, and only after BTC’s run did altcoins truly start to perform;
· In the cycle before that, BTC rose from 3,000 to 13,000, and after the main uptrend ended, the altcoin season arrived late.
The pattern never changes: at the start of a bull market, the mainstream coins feast first, altcoins get the leftovers.
Capital flow is always: big institutions enter BTC first, then spill over to ETH, and finally to small coins.
Looking at the current market:
The money pumping altcoins now is all short-term contract funds; spot market isn’t following, long-term holders aren’t locked in, and there’s no volume at the bottom.
So, the safest strategies at this stage are threefold:
1. Don’t dislike BTC’s slow rise; slow is fast, and it’s the most certain;
2. If you want to use leverage, only use it on mainstream coins, avoid miscellaneous tokens;
3. Altcoin season is still early; chasing highs now = standing guard.
The most common mistake newcomers make is disliking BTC’s slow rise at the start of a bull market and rushing to gamble on altcoins to get rich quick, only to find themselves still breaking even after most of the bull market has passed.
Remember: Only by holding the mainstream coins can you wait for altcoins. Get the rhythm right, and the money will naturally come.#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
US-Iran sanctions intensify, raising shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher. The market is once again worried about inflation rebounding driven by energy, causing disturbances in interest rate hike expectations.
$BTC｜$76800, resistance at 79100, support at 74000. Geopolitical news easily triggers short-term spikes. In the short term, BTC still follows risk asset logic; rising inflation expectations will suppress risk appetite. Only if the conflict becomes prolonged will the scarcity hedge narrative gradually manifest.
$ETH｜$2440, resistance at 2500, support at 2400, altcoin volatility will further amplify.
Gold benefits from strengthened safe-haven sentiment; however, if oil prices continue to push inflation higher, US Treasury yields will rise, which in turn will suppress the overall risk asset market.
Key focus is on the sustainability of oil prices; if the situation eases, pressure will be relieved; once energy prices remain high and stagnant, the risk of a market pullback will increase.
This is only a personal market record and does not constitute any investment advice. Samsung's shareholder return plan of KRW 90 trillion to KRW 110 trillion is like a structural elevation drawing with severely over-reinforced load-bearing walls. I stared at the KRW90T-KRW110T range for a long time—this is not a construction error; it's a deliberate settlement joint left by the structural engineer, using annual performance and investment needs as a buffer to prevent shear cracks from forming between shareholder expectations and capital expenditures.
SK Hynix first threw out a KRW 40 trillion buyback and cancellation, and Samsung followed with a long-term contract to return half of its free cash flow. It's like two supertall buildings competing over who has the heavier damper, but the real question is: how deep is your foundation's waterproof curtain wall? The cash flow from AI storage chips is currently the fattest concrete pour section, but the expansion of HBM and advanced node production lines is what determines whether this building can break through the 300-meter vertical structural component. Feeding shareholders with short-term returns while reserving crane swing radius for the next expansion—if this calculation is wrong, at best the core tube will crack, at worst the entire tower will twist and collapse under wind vibration.
The $xQQQ target essentially asks the market: can the AI capital expenditures of U.S. tech giants, like prestressed steel strands, evenly transmit the profit tension of storage chips throughout the beam and column system of the entire industry chain? Samsung and SK Hynix's return plans are essentially stress tests—laying out the free cash flow, the most honest building material inspection report, to see how many processes it can support simultaneously. Dividends are the exterior cladding panels, buybacks are the curtain wall mullions, and HBM capacity is the pile foundation buried deep in the structure. Some analysts only look at the lighting on the podium, but I focus on the red dashed lines of overlapping tasks on the overall construction schedule—the collision of capital expenditures and shareholder returns on the same timeline often predicts the project's outcome better than geological survey reports.
When Samsung says the final scale depends on annual performance and investment needs, it is giving the market a sectional drawing without elevation marks. Experienced cost engineers understand that any promise with a "depends on" hinge node means the load path can change at any time. If AI storage cash flow is truly a dense vein of golden granite, then simultaneously supporting dividends, buybacks, and advanced process R&D is a reasonable framed structural design; but if this cash flow is just a superficially shiny GRC line, then this dual commitment will become the last collapse accident before the building is completed.
Now all eyes are on $xQQQ, treating it as a theodolite to observe AI-memory cash flow visibility. But readings always have errors; the real load-bearing logic is always hidden in the most inconspicuous corner of the drawing—the reserved opening marked for the next expansion cycle, whose size is quietly narrowing with every buyback today. #samsungpayoutupto80b$XAU bullish trend is clear, but short-term caution is needed for the risk of high-level volatility.
If the price does not break below the 5-day moving average during the day, the bullish trend is very likely to continue.
Pay attention to the 4560-4550 support area during the day.
Currently, gold is in a new pricing logic of "US dollar credit hedging" — gold prices and US Treasury yields are rising simultaneously (the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high at 4.74%), confirming the pricing anchor has shifted from "real interest rates" to "US dollar credit hedging." Kitco surveys show 73% of Wall Street analysts are bullish on the market outlook, with no one predicting a decline.
Key risks to watch in the news:
1. Core driver: US Treasury repurchase triggers "US dollar credit crisis"
The biggest catalyst for this round of gold surge is US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's announcement to at least double the repurchase scale of long-term bonds from 10 to 30 years (from $2 billion each time to $4 billion).
However, the market reaction was completely unexpected by the Treasury — after the repurchase plan was announced, the US dollar index fell sharply, once hitting the lowest since mid-May, closing near 98.85. Citigroup quickly downgraded its US dollar index forecast for the next three months from 102.12 to 98.34.
Founder Securities pointed out that the US Treasury's increased long bond repurchase "weakens the upward momentum of long-term yields, combined with weak US economic data suppressing Fed rate hike expectations and US dollar strength momentum." Everbright Futures also believes the core driver has shifted from "declining rate hike expectations" to "US dollar credit impairment."
2. Rising geopolitical risks
· US-Iran situation: The 60-day negotiation window expires on August 18, and Trump announced no extension of the memorandum of understanding. Iran warned that if the economic war continues, oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf region will stop.
· US-Canada trade dispute: The US imposed a 50% tariff on about $20 billion of Canadian goods on Saturday; Canada announced equivalent countermeasures effective September 8.
· Bridgewater Fund's Ray Dalio publicly advised investors to reduce bond holdings and allocate up to 15% of funds into physical gold to hedge against US debt crisis risks.
3. Institutional fund movements
The world's largest gold ETF — SPDR Gold Trust — held 1047.21 tons as of August 21, an increase of 8.28 tons from the previous trading day. The influx of institutional buying indicates rising market bullish sentiment.
4. Key event this week: Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting (August 28)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his first keynote speech — if he signals a clear anti-inflation stance, it may trigger a market repricing of September rate hike expectations. CME data shows a 59.0% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September and a 41.0% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
Technical analysis:
Currently, RSI is near overbought — 69.43 is close to the 70 threshold, indicating a short-term possibility of a pullback; be cautious about chasing highs.
The 4800-5000 range is a dense resistance zone, with 4889 near the last high point before the previous downturn. This area may see significant profit-taking by bulls; those who have not entered should remember to be bullish but not chase the price; pullback opportunities will come.
The above are personal views for reference only.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 $xSNDK SanDisk — Profit-taking before Nvidia earnings report, but fundamentals remain intact
SanDisk closed at $1596, dropping to $1563 after hours, with the storage sector collectively pulling back with low volume ahead of Nvidia's August 26 earnings report. This is a typical pre-event deleveraging, not an individual stock issue—Micron and SK Hynix are also under pressure.
Strong fundamentals: Last quarter's EPS was $39.25, beating expectations by 13%, with revenue of $8.96 billion. Next quarter guidance projects revenue of $10.3 billion and gross margin of 83-85%. Eight customers have multi-year agreements locking in $42 billion. NAND prices are expected to rise 61% in the second half of the year. Among 24 analysts, 20 have buy ratings, with an average target price of $2126.
Weekly outlook: Trading range between 1550-1650. Nvidia's earnings report is a short-term watershed—if it beats expectations, the sector will gap up collectively; if it misses, it will retest 1500. The mid-term target remains unchanged at 1800. Last week we asked whether the move was a squeeze. Five straight ETF inflow sessions show that ETF buying continued after the initial squeeze.
US spot BTC and ETH ETFs ended the week with their strongest combined inflows since October 2025:
· BTC ETFs attracted $1.92B across five positive sessions, including $606M on Thursday and $307M on Friday
· ETH ETFs added about $697M, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing roughly $537M
· Combined trading volume reached about $29B, more than triple the previous week
The pattern lasted through all five US trading sessions, but it is not a final verdict on demand.
At Friday's close, BTC ETF net assets stood near $96.1B, equal to about 6.2% of Bitcoin's market value and approaching the $100B mark.
Two details matter:
· Concentration: IBIT captured about $1.33B, or 69% of weekly BTC inflows. ETHA accounted for roughly 77% of ETH inflows. The flows were strong, but breadth remains the next test
· Persistence: BTC ETFs remained about $2.9B in net outflows for 2026, while ETH ETFs were roughly $192M negative
Relative to their asset bases, ETH recorded the higher inflow ratio. Weekly inflows equaled about 4.9% of ETH ETF net assets, versus roughly 2.0% for BTC.
The rally broadened beyond the two largest assets too. BTC recorded its biggest weekly gain since March 2024, while XRP gained nearly 40%.
BTC reached roughly $79,500 on Friday, touched a weekend low near $75,600 and traded around $77,000 on Monday.
The latest completed US ETF session was Aug 21. Aug 24 flow data will follow after the US close.
The next macro test arrives Friday, when Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair.
Which matters more for BTC this week: persistent ETF demand or Warsh's policy tone?
#BTCETFInflowsSurge $xSKHY SK Hynix — Samsung's poor performance highlights SK Hynix, accelerating HBM4 mass production
Samsung Electronics' shareholder return plan of 90-110 trillion KRW fell short of market expectations, causing the stock price to plunge nearly 7%. In contrast, SK Hynix's announcement last week of a 40 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation appears more generous, with today's stock slightly rising 0.29% against the trend, showing a clear divergence from Samsung's movement.
HBM4 has officially entered mass production shipments to NVIDIA, compatible with the next-generation Vera Rubin platform, with scale expanding from September. SemiAnalysis estimates DRAM average prices rose 45% month-over-month, with operating profit around 55 trillion KRW. Lyon maintains a target price of 3.7 million KRW, stating supply shortages may persist until 2030.
Weekly analysis: bullish bias, bottom established. Samsung's crash actually strengthens SK Hynix's relative advantage. Forward PE of 6.6 times is far below SanDisk's 28 times, indicating significant valuation recovery potential. Attention is on NVIDIA's earnings report to verify the shipment pace of HBM4.1⃣ The starting point of the last Bitcoin bull market saw daily candles with volume rising more than 5% for three consecutive days, directly pulling back to the previous high consolidation range.
2⃣ Then it consolidated sideways for five days, continued to rise to 25K, about a 60% increase from the low of 15K, followed by a larger 23% pullback to 19K, roughly the price of the 200-day moving average, basically the same price as the 200-day moving average when it just broke through.
3⃣ Now we have a similar scenario, again with daily candles rising more than 5% with volume for three consecutive days, directly pulling back to the previous high consolidation range. It's not as textbook as the last round but very close (previous high was 82K, this time it pulled back to 79K).
4⃣ Assuming the same pattern, after consolidation it continues to rise, about a 60% increase from the low, with a price around 92K, followed by a 23% pullback to about 70K, and the 200-day moving average price at this breakout is 69K.
In short, hopefully it consolidates for a few days and then continues to push higher 🤩
$BTC $BTC 77,000 Tug of War: Transition from "Spike High Volatility" to "Chip Rotation"
After this violent surge, $BTC did not rally straight up as retail investors expected, but instead experienced sharp spikes between 78,819 and 75,513, then stabilized around 77,000. The core logic behind this is not just the candlestick patterns, but the drastic adjustment in the macro background and leverage structure.
📈 Three hardcore drivers of the rise:
1. Macro liquidity resonance: The U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion, directly pushing down long-term government bond yields. The decline in yields increased the attractiveness of risk assets, and BTC, as a "gold-like asset," absorbed a significant liquidity substitution demand.
2. Squeeze on excessive profits and institutional support: This rise was mainly driven by short stop-losses. From August 21-22, over $1.4 billion was liquidated across the network, with shorts accounting for over $1.15 billion. While retail investors panicked and closed positions, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $1.9 billion in one week, indicating institutions are gradually adding positions around 77,000. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 Cryptocurrency volatility narrows, storage sector's top three collectively plunge
On August 24, after a weekend "high dive," the crypto market entered a phase of volatile consolidation. $BTC hovered around the $77,000 mark, engaging in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, slipping slightly by 0.09% in 24 hours to $77,386; $ETH showed relative strength, rising slightly by 0.20% to $2,448. Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly approached $80,000 before retreating, while Ethereum rebounded sharply from about $1,880 to above $2,420, posting a weekly gain of about 30%, clearly outperforming Bitcoin.
Regarding market sentiment, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw a combined net inflow of approximately $2.6 billion last week, hitting a nearly 10-month high. Analysts believe this is a normal pullback and consolidation after a breakout, with limited downside. After stabilizing, it remains a buying opportunity. BTC.TOP founder Jiang Zhuoer has turned bullish with 90% confidence, stating Ethereum is expected to lead the next rally.
In stark contrast to the mild crypto market fluctuations, the storage chip sector faced a sharp sell-off. SanDisk $SNDK's decline widened to over 5%, Micron Technology fell about 3%, and SK Hynix dropped about 3.88%. On the news front, price increases for DRAM and NAND contracts have significantly slowed, with upside limited by demand-side resistance and long-term contract price ceilings. Previously, Micron had retraced about 20% from its peak, while SanDisk and Western Digital have fallen more than 30%. The weakening belief in AI computing power and the diminishing logic for storage price hikes continue to pressure sector valuations. 📅 Background first: This is not an ordinary speech, but a "credibility retest." The 2026 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 27 to 29, with the theme "Financial Innovation: Impacts on Payments and Policy." Walsh is scheduled to deliver his first keynote speech since becoming Fed Chair at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on August 28 (10 p.m. Beijing Time on Friday night). But this is not a typical policy seminar—it is viewed by Wall Street as the most critical window for Walsh to reshape the Fed's credibility. Since taking office in May, Walsh has pursued a "quieter Fed": eliminating forward guidance, shortening policy statements, and being vague in two press conferences. The market interpreted this as a lack of determination to fight inflation, and subsequently, the 30-year Treasury yield once hit 5.34%, the highest since 2007. Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard's warning was sharp: "The Fed's credibility is at risk—the market is beginning to believe the committee doesn't truly care about bringing inflation down to 2%." More critically: Walsh has yet to decide whether the speech will address the macro "big picture" or directly provide policy guidance for September to December. Bloomberg economists expect he is more likely to choose the latter—focusing on describing the Fed reform's "intellectual framework" rather than giving specific signals. TD Securities bluntly states that Jackson Hole presents a clear "asymmetric risk"—if Walsh provides too little information, the market will be disappointed; even if some reaction functions are explained, the upside is limited. --- ⚔️ Manstein strategic simulation: two scenarios $xMU Micron — CEO declares AI is rewriting the storage cycle, but Burry's short adds uncertainty
Micron CEO Mehrotra publicly stated: "AI is completely rewriting the storage chip cycle logic, with customer demand exceeding supply by about 50%." The procurement model is shifting from price comparison bidding to collaborative design, deeply binding to enhance pricing power. Q3 revenue surged 345.7% year-over-year, non-GAAP EPS of $25.11 exceeded expectations, with a gross margin of 84.6%. Sixteen strategic customer agreements lock in a minimum revenue of $100 billion.
However, Michael Burry started building a short position in Micron in mid-August, insiders are net sellers, and the BR indicator has entered the overbought zone. The stock price is $966, down 23% from the 52-week high of $1254.
Weekly outlook: oscillating between 930-1000 with a bullish bias. The expiration of the CHIPS Act buyback restrictions in December is a mid-term catalyst, but short-term pressure comes from Burry's short position. Holding above 980 targets 1000; break below 930 calls for caution. Has Nvidia's "residual value guarantee" plan collapsed?
On August 10, Nvidia signed a memorandum of understanding with six leading financial institutions to establish a $500 billion financing platform.
Using Nvidia AI hardware as the underlying asset, it will issue public and private debt to institutional investors such as pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds.
The raised funds will be injected into a special platform to provide financing support for AI companies' chip purchases or leases.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that for qualified AI infrastructure projects, the company can provide up to 25% residual value risk hedging support on demand to alleviate financial institutions' concerns about valuation declines in computing power assets and to broaden industry market-based financing channels.
However, shortly after the news of the 25% residual value guarantee came out, Nvidia began to backtrack repeatedly.
According to The Wall Street Journal, to ease investors' concerns about the company's risk exposure, Nvidia has significantly reduced the guarantee amount it provides for OpenAI's data centers, revising the financial guarantee scale from the original $250 billion to below $120 billion.
It is clearly unlikely that Nvidia can single-handedly support the AI financing market.
Currently, the US AI burn rate heavily relies on related-party transactions among several tech giants, giving a sense of a self-reinforcing spiral.
Moreover, the current large-scale AI burn exceeding market financing will further tighten market liquidity, which is linked to the US Treasury market—a major risk point.
In other words, currently—
the risk of a US AI bubble burst and the risk in the US Treasury market, these two major risk points in the US financial system,
are now interconnected.
$NVDA
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% BTC rises from $64,000 to $79,500 in six weeks... Now, putting aside the overheated momentum in the confirmation zone, which key support levels the market needs to verify? Last week, BTC surged from $64,000 to $79,500, while ETH rose more than 25% for the week before experiencing a pullback. This rally is a combination of Treasury liquidity, ETF inflows, and a short squeeze. However, the current price range is in an overheated zone with short-term momentum, so price confirmation must be preceded by further gains. The key is the defensive strength of the support level, which determines whether this rally is a simple rebound or a trend reversal. BTC's first defense line is the $74,000~$76,000 range, and ETH's $2,300~$2,350 range. If this range holds and selling pressure eases, the recent gains could settle at the lower end of the new range. Conversely, if this support level is broken, the recent rally is likely to be interpreted solely as the result of an overheated short squeeze. Looking at the market structure, the #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%
NVIDIA, a giant with a 75% gross margin, cannot withstand the DRAM price increase and has to pass on the cost, indicating that the pricing power of memory chips has become absurdly high. The most noteworthy aspect of this price hike is not the price itself, but that the profit margins of cloud providers are being squeezed from both ends—NVIDIA is raising prices by 15%, and memory manufacturers are increasing prices even more aggressively. Self-developed chips are a distant solution that does not address the immediate problem.
According to Bloomberg, NVIDIA has informed some of its largest customers that starting early next year, the prices of servers equipped with AI chips will mostly increase by more than 15%. This involves the Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell series. The specific increase depends on the chip generation and memory configuration. Manufacturers producing servers for Microsoft, Google, and Oracle have already notified their customers of this round of price hikes.
The Blackwell architecture NVL72 GB200 rack is priced between $2.8 million and $3.4 million, while the Vera Rubin NVL72 VR200 is even higher at $5 million to $7 million. A 15% increase means paying tens of thousands to nearly a million dollars more per unit. The price hike is due to structural tightness in DRAM supply, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron monopolizing global capacity.
Even with a 75% gross margin, NVIDIA cannot absorb the costs and must raise prices. Apple and Qualcomm have also recently been forced to increase end-product prices due to chip shortages. NVIDIA is scheduled to release its Q2 earnings report after the market closes next Wednesday. Institutions have placed nearly $800 million in short positions. Most people's first reaction is either to run or to rush in, but the truth is more worth watching than the sentiment.
Abraxas Capital has established about $783 million in short positions on Hyperliquid, while simultaneously buying spot to hedge. They have been continuously withdrawing from Binance over the past 4 days, showing a clear capital deployment rhythm.
A scale of $783 million is rare. The presence of spot hedging indicates this is more likely a structurally bearish position rather than a naked short gamble, but the net short exposure itself is an attitude—Abraxas judges there is a risk of a price pullback at the current level. A whale-level institution shorting is an important reference signal for the short-term direction.
For traders, such large short positions usually become short-term sentiment anchors. If the price continues to rise and reaches the position cost area, it may trigger a short squeeze; if buying weakens, large short positions will accelerate the decline. In the short term, pay attention to changes in funding rates for HYPE and related assets. If the funding rate remains negative and short positions increase, it indicates that the short consensus is consolidating.
Regarding the token HYPE, the direction is bearish, but large short positions themselves are potential short squeeze fuel—don’t look at only one side.
Source: Wu Shuo
#HYPE #Crypto100W $ETH Big Brother Maji rolled over $150,000 to recover to $11.15 million, the miracle behind high leverage is the unilateral market dividend
On August 24, according to EmberCN on-chain monitoring data, the well-known crypto whale Big Brother Maji (Huang Licheng) seized last week's unilateral short squeeze rally in the crypto market. Through long position rollovers, his account funds expanded from about $150,000 to $11.15 million, with a cumulative recovery of nearly $11 million.
This tens of millions recovery quickly became a hot topic in the on-chain community, but behind the glamorous profits lies a highly risky trading model that every trader should calmly examine.
1. Event Data Review
In the past ten months, Big Brother Maji has accumulated losses of about $35 million in ETH long trades on the Hyperliquid platform. After this round of market recovery, his historical total loss narrowed to around $24 million.
As of the latest monitoring:
- Total long position size is about $129 million, covering BTC, ETH, HYPE, PUMP, and multiple other assets
- Overall leverage remains at a high exposure of 12x, maintaining an aggressive trading style.
Investors familiar with on-chain data know this is not his first "desperate recovery," nor his first time facing consecutive liquidations. Historical records show he has experienced hundreds of partial liquidations, with his account repeatedly dropping from tens of millions to just tens of thousands of dollars, relying entirely on continuous off-exchange capital injections to replenish margin and wait for trend rebounds to turn the tide.
2. Tens of millions recovery is essentially a gift from a unilateral market
Many people see $150,000 rolling into tens of millions and their first reaction is to imitate this rollover and add-on strategy. Here, a core fact must be clarified:
Rolling over to get rich only suits a continuously rising unilateral short squeeze market. Once the market switches to consolidation or pullback, this strategy can be equally devastating.
What was the market environment last week?
ETF continued capital inflows, large-scale short liquidations in chains, continuous buying pressure, and the trend had almost no deep pullbacks. In this environment, unrealized profits kept expanding, and unrealized profits were further used to add and roll positions, rapidly inflating the asset snowball.
But the market has changed.
Now BTC and ETH have ended their unilateral rally and entered a high-level range-bound consolidation, with frequent spikes up and down, making both longs and shorts vulnerable to liquidation. The soil suitable for high-leverage rollovers has disappeared. The same operation in the current choppy market can easily be stopped out repeatedly, and the unrealized profits just gained can be fully lost in a short time.
3. Never directly copy the whale’s public positions
All Hyperliquid contract positions are fully public on-chain, and everyone can see his positions in real time, which has spawned many retail investors blindly following. There are two huge misconceptions here:
1. The whale has unlimited off-exchange buffer funds, ordinary people do not
When the market moves against him, he can continuously inject funds to replenish margin and withstand drawdowns, waiting for the next rebound. Most ordinary traders have limited capital and no extra ammunition; a deep pullback will cause immediate liquidation and exit, unable to hold until the market reverses.
2. On-chain data has a time lag
The large long positions you see are states that have already occurred. By the time you see the news or position screenshots, he may have already reduced, closed, or adjusted leverage. Retail followers are often one step behind.
The whale’s legendary story can be watched, but it cannot be directly copied as your own trading system.
4. Reflections on the current market
Now the market is range-bound at a high level, with difficulties on both long and short sides—long positions fear pullbacks, short positions fear sudden rallies.
Big Brother Maji’s case reminds the market of two things:
1. Bull markets create many leverage-driven wealth cases, but leverage is a double-edged sword that amplifies both gains and risks.
2. The unilateral trend has ended; in this consolidation phase, priority should be given to reducing leverage rather than increasing it to gamble.#Jackson Hole Approaches, Can Walsh Clarify the Policy Path?
The boss has something to say
The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting officially opens this Thursday, and Federal Reserve Chair Walsh will deliver the keynote speech at 10 PM Beijing time on Friday. This is not just an annual policy seminar keynote; Wall Street views it as the most critical window for Walsh to reshape the Fed's credibility.
An Allspring executive bluntly stated that the risks at Jackson Hole are greater than Nvidia's earnings report. Nvidia's results are a "single profit anchor," but Walsh's speech could simultaneously change interest rate expectations, term premiums, dollar liquidity, and global risk asset discount rates, making it a "systemic pricing anchor."
Walsh's "philosophy of silence" is coming at a cost
Since taking office in May, Walsh has deliberately avoided forward guidance, shortened policy statements, and been vague in two press conferences. Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard described this as the Fed's "most significant shift in decades." Former Philadelphia Fed President Harker bluntly said, "Walsh must directly address the inflation issue. Such statements are no longer enough; the market will be very disappointed."
The market is punishing uncertainty with yields. The 30-year US Treasury yield once hit 5.334%, the highest since 2007. US debt has surpassed 40 trillion for the first time, and inflation has exceeded the 2% target for five consecutive years. Walsh's silence is turning into an expensive noise.
What is the market waiting for? Three core questions
First, can Walsh provide a credible anti-inflation response function? The market wants to know which data will trigger rate hikes, how he views the 3.50% to 3.75% rate range, how to coordinate balance sheet reduction with Treasury buybacks, and whether he will stick to the 2% inflation target.
Second, will he use this speech to provide guidance on the policy path from September to December? This is still undecided. If he continues to be vague, TD Securities warns of a clear "asymmetric risk"—too little information will disappoint the market, and providing details leaves limited upside.
Third, there will be no Q&A session after the speech. The real directional judgment may come from off-stage remarks by other officials during the meeting; about five Fed officials are expected to give interviews to various media on Friday.
PCE sets the tone first, then Walsh speaks
PCE data will be released on Wednesday, with the market expecting core PCE year-over-year to remain at 3.3%. Currently, CME shows about a 41% chance of a rate hike in September and one hike before year-end. PCE exceeding expectations will further solidify the rate hike logic; below expectations will give Walsh more room to "wait."
Impact on the market
Bitcoin has surged from 64,000 to above 77,000; the main short squeeze rally has ended. After PMI hit a four-year high, rate hike divergences have heated up again, reducing the short-term cost-effectiveness of chasing more. If Walsh continues to be vague, US Treasuries may face further sell-offs, and risk assets will be under pressure. Clear guidance will clarify the direction. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
All long positions have been closed, waiting for a pullback; stabilize between 73,000 and 74,000 before re-entering. SPCX base positions continue the pattern. Before PCE and Walsh's speech, avoid heavy directional bets.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.This set of data is indeed very interesting, and can even be described as a typical "dark under the lights" phenomenon in the crypto market. The data released by Blockworks Research researcher AJC directly exposed a blind spot in the market: while most people chased PUMP, a high-multiples token driven by emotion and hype, PONS was quietly making a fortune. Revenue ranks 13th, but FDV/Revenue (total circulating market cap to annualized or near-term revenue ratio) is only 0.7x. The horizontal comparison is stark: in terms of pure cash flow and revenue-generating ability, PONS offers an absurdly high cost-performance ratio among the top 15 tokens. Why does the market only give it 0.7 times? (Beware of hidden dangers behind the scenes) The market is never foolish. When an asset is extremely undervalued, it usually means it has some "pain points" that capital fears: Narrative sexiness is insufficient: Stories like PUMP or HYPE, which have strong community traffic or hot track aura, tell stories that are sexy and capital is willing to pay a high premium. PONS may be the kind of protocol that quietly collects money but lacks marketing and viral storytelling. Token Empowerment and Inflation Issues: Many protocols generate revenue, but does this income go into project teams' pockets, buybacks and burns, or are they distributed to long-term locked stakers? If the token's value capture capability is weak, or if there is significant unlocked selling pressure in the future, the market#BTC experiences volatility after a surge, with continuous ETF capital inflows #Ethereum draft EIP-8363 sparks controversy Good morning, all genius traders!
BTC, ETH, and OKB are all crypto assets driven jointly by US Treasury real yields and market risk appetite, but their asset attributes, core narratives, and risk characteristics show clear differentiation.
$BTC Bitcoin is the core benchmark of the crypto market. Spot ETFs intermittently see large net inflows, institutional funds allocate on dips, and prices recover and oscillate upward with easing rate expectations. However, historical resistance from trapped positions above remains. This round of the market is driven more by liquidity expectations rather than a fundamental breakout. If Fed rate cut expectations fluctuate and US Treasury yields rebound, BTC will come under direct pressure, which overall determines the macro environment for the entire crypto market.
$ETH ETH has a higher beta than BTC. Spot ETF inflows have improved, on-chain staking rates remain high, and exchange reserves continue to decline, indicating supply contraction logic. However, the ETH/BTC ratio has not shown a strong reversal. Layer 2 networks continue to divert mainnet Gas usage, weakening the token burn deflation effect. The ecosystem lacks phenomenally successful applications, with most price movements following the broader market. It is a type that rallies strongly but also experiences larger pullbacks, with insufficient independent narrative fulfillment.
$OKB OKB is the exchange platform token with a total supply capped at 21 million, its value anchored to OKX exchange trading volume, fee rights, and the X-Layer Layer 2 ecosystem. Its price moves in tandem with platform business sentiment and has practical utilities such as fee discounts and ecosystem participation. However, the token is highly tied to a centralized platform, with core risks stemming from overseas regulatory policies and exchange operational volatility. If X-Layer ecosystem TVL growth falls short of expectations, it will also suppress valuation, making it difficult to have an independent major rally detached from the broader market.
Currently, we are in a risk asset recovery window. For BTC, focus on the sustainability of ETF capital inflows; for ETH, monitor the ratio trend and on-chain ecosystem data; for OKB, watch exchange trading and Layer 2 ecosystem progress. Once US Treasury yields rise, all three asset types will face pullback pressure. 🔥Record-breaking 110 trillion KRW return plan turns into a "killer" for Samsung's stock price!
#Samsung stock price drops 6.4%, return plan falls short of expectations
On August 24, at the opening of the South Korean stock market, Samsung Electronics' stock price plunged sharply, with an intraday maximum drop of 6.4%.
📋 The plan itself is very "lavish":
Last Friday, Samsung announced its 2026 shareholder return plan, expected to be between 90 trillion and 110 trillion KRW (about $80 billion), approximately 5 times the previous record of 20.3 trillion KRW. This includes a cash dividend payout of 30 trillion KRW in Q3 and a stock buyback of about 15 trillion KRW for employee compensation.
💥 Why is the market not buying it?
① Investors want buybacks, but Samsung offers dividends. JPMorgan analysts bluntly said: the plan "failed to bring better-than-expected benefits," with disappointment over the Q3 dividend size, no announced stock buyback, and the return ratio remaining at 50% of cumulative free cash flow.
② Competitor SK Hynix "rolled up" too aggressively. SK Hynix previously announced a buyback and cancellation of 40 trillion KRW in stock. Although Samsung's total amount is larger, it did not announce all buyback and cancellation arrangements at once, leading investors to feel the plan lacks "certainty."
③ Expectations were too high. Investors previously expected up to 140 trillion KRW, and after the plan was finalized, the "all good news priced in" logic appeared.
📊 Short term: sentiment under pressure 📉 The market has already priced in the record return expectations, so a pullback after the plan's release is inevitable.
🚀 Long term: fundamentals remain strong Samsung's Q2 operating profit surged 1813.8% year-over-year, and the AI-driven semiconductor supercycle direction remains unchanged.
Friends, is this pullback a chance to get in?
$SAMSUNG Is Bitcoin in a bull recovery or a bear trap? Response is more important than prediction: next step action plan
This article is very important, please read carefully. Recently, Bitcoin surged significantly, and everyone is discussing whether it is a bull recovery or a bear market rebound. The position you hold determines your mindset: those with positions hope for a bull recovery, while those sidelined hope it’s just a bear market rebound. Emotional trading is a major enemy; no one can predict the market. In trading, preparing to respond is more important than predicting.
Bitcoin likely has two possible trends, as shown in the chart:
The first is the green trend, indicating a market reversal. There is a classic but simple 123 rule: if the price can hold above the key resistance at 78,000-80,000 and form higher highs and higher lows, then the market reverses, and the rare bull market arrives early, following the green line.
Response: Personally, my short position at 78,200 will stop loss at 82,500; the spot holdings bought at 63,000 (BTC and ETH) will continue to be held. At the same time, look for opportunities to add positions and go long. The end of September to October and the end of this year to early next year are the 80-day cycle bottom and 20-week cycle bottom respectively. If the bull market comes, these two time points are opportunities to add positions. Tools like the pitchfork can be used to find support for operations. Once the bull market arrives, there will be enough time to add positions, so no need to be anxious.
The second is the red trend, where Bitcoin fails to hold the resistance level and fails to form higher highs and higher lows, so the reversal fails.
Response: Personally, I will continue to hold short positions and spot holdings (the plan for spot is to reduce some positions in reasonable zones and clear out in expensive and very expensive zones). The price may break new lows or may not, with repeated oscillations forming a bottom. Actually, whether it’s the first or second trend, the operation strategy doesn’t change much: add positions respectively at the cycle bottoms in late September to October and year-end. If the price falls into the very cheap zone of my personal valuation range chart, that is an excellent price to add positions.
Although I have positions, I will not be affected by market noise. Prediction itself has little meaning because no one can always predict correctly. Scientific trading is about preparing to respond to opportunities. What I am sure of is that we will have enough opportunities to add positions later; just patiently wait for signals.
My subjective view: If I must give a personal opinion, I am cautious about a direct market reversal. The market may oscillate longer than we expect because the cycle bottom in September-October is still ahead. But if this judgment is wrong, I will admit it, and it’s okay because it does not affect the subsequent operation strategy.
From a fundamental perspective, the market previously speculated on the US Treasury bond repurchase and yield control news, which briefly suppressed the 10-year US Treasury yield, but the benefit lasted only 1-2 days before yields quickly rebounded to 4.7%. Interested readers can check this out.
If the US can continuously implement Treasury repurchase policies, the effect is equivalent to marginal quantitative easing (QE), which will provide sustained upward momentum for equity markets and commodities. But if no supporting policies are implemented in the coming months, market enthusiasm will quickly fade, the previous rise was emotional speculation, and the market will fall again with a new low point emerging. Stay tuned!
In this round of broad market rally (except US stocks), my current favorite remains gold and silver. The cycle bottom around September is still ahead, making it a good time to add positions. In fact, I have long been optimistic about gold and silver and will look for more opportunities to add positions during future pullbacks.
The above are all personal views and operations and do not constitute trading advice. Good Monday morning, a new week has started, and the bulls and bears are back online.
Just sat down to take a look at the market; BTC is still hovering around 77,000, up about 0.2% in the last 24 hours. Last week it jumped straight from 64,000 to 79,500, rising more than 23% in a week, a rare increase in recent months.
Why the rise? Several factors combined.
The most direct is the US Treasury's big move—announcing a doubling of long-term bond repurchases, weakening the dollar, and risk assets collectively rallying. Then the shorts were collectively liquidated; over the past few days, short liquidations exceeded $4 billion, forcing shorts to cover by buying back, causing a stampede. On top of that, ETF funds poured in wildly; last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $1.92 billion, with over $1 billion in the past two trading days alone. These three factors combined caused the price to take off.
But honestly, this position is quite delicate.
Jan3 CEO Samson Mow said the real bull market hasn't arrived yet; the historical high of 126,000 is just "keeping up with inflation." That sounds a bit exaggerated, but the logic makes sense—the recent surge is more driven by short covering and policy expectations, not a large influx of new funds.
Technically, short-term support is at 75,700-76,000, with strong support at 74,500. Resistance is at 78,200-78,500 above, and the 80,000 level has heavy selling pressure.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #ETHTests2500
ETH's 30% weekly surge looks explosive, but the $697M flowing into spot ETFs may matter more than the $1.1B in short liquidations. A squeeze can ignite a rally. Fresh capital is what keeps it alive. With ETH testing $2,500, I'm watching whether ETF and spot demand survives the first wave of profit-taking. If buyers stay, this could become a real rotation. If not, leverage can unwind just as quickly as it built.The traditional view is **rising and falling together**, because both are "inflation-resistant assets." But in reality, it depends on which rises faster and why.
**Simply put, there are three scenarios:**
1. **Moderate inflation period**: Oil prices rise → inflation expectations increase → gold follows and rises (rising together). This is the most common situation, seen in the 1970s and 2022.
2. **Oil price surges but the Fed is forced to raise interest rates**: Oil prices soar → inflation gets out of control → Fed raises rates → real interest rates rise → gold actually falls. This happened during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict—oil prices rose to $120, but gold dropped from $2,070 to $1,620. Because rate hikes increase the opportunity cost of holding gold.
3. **Geopolitical crisis (war/sanctions)**: Oil prices rise + risk aversion increases → gold rises. In this case, both rise because gold's "safe-haven attribute" outweighs the negative impact of "inflation and rate hikes."
**The US-Iran game mentioned in the video belongs to the third scenario**—if a real conflict breaks out, oil prices rise + risk aversion, gold will rise.
**But the key question is: Have oil prices risen now?**
Crude oil (WTI) is currently around $65, it hasn't really risen this year and is still fluctuating at a low level. Gold rising to $4,680 is mainly due to central bank buying + a weaker dollar + geopolitical risks, not pushed up by oil prices.
**Conclusion for you: Don't watch oil prices to predict gold.** You don't have a gold position anyway, so the video's "oil price up, gold up" logic doesn't concern you. Your current strategy is to wait for BTC to pull back; whether gold rises or not doesn't affect you. $CL 今天日报几个点我直接拎出来分享。 先看宏观，美国8月综合PMI初值超预期，直接升到接近四年来的新高。服务业还在强劲扩张，基本把制造业的疲软给抵消了。欧洲那边也类似，8月综合PMI创9个月新高，最大的推动反而来自制造业反弹。现在欧美经济都比市场之前想象得更有韧性，但问题也来了：经济越强，市场对快速降息的预期就越容易被往后推。 美股夜盘这边开始出现明显分化。加密概念股反而挺强，BTCS涨11%，嘉楠科技涨4%；存储这边SK海力士涨超1%。但前段时间特别猛的光通信开始掉队，Applied Optoelectronics跌超9%。最近AI产业链的轮动越来越快，同一个方向里面都已经不是一起涨了，资金明显开始挑细分和兑现高位品种。 美债还是当前市场最大的变量之一。美国财长贝森特之前扩大美债回购规模，希望压住长端收益率，但效果并没有持续太久。市场现在最关注的还是杰克逊霍尔，美联储对通胀和后续政策路径到底怎么表态。如果长端利率一直压不下来，对美股高估值资产依然是压力。 油价今天跌了大概1%。华盛顿预计还会宣布针对伊朗的新一轮制裁，资金在消息真正落地之前先做了一些获利了结。现在原油还是典型的地缘行情，消BTC目前围绕 7.6万美元附近震荡。前面冲高接近 7.9万美元后出现回落，市场上确实有不少短线资金开始获利了结，但另一边，现货ETF的资金仍在持续流入。 过去5天，漂亮国现货BTC ETF累计净流入约 19.2亿美元，历史累计净流入已经达到 537.1亿美元。这意味着一个很明显的现象：短线交易者在卖，但机构资金还在接。 据链上监测，近期有大量短期持有者将BTC转入交易所，其中一次流入规模达到约 1.78万枚BTC，也是今年2月以来较大的单日短期筹码流入之一。重点在于，这部分筹码主要来自近期买入的短线资金，并不是长期巨鲸大规模派发。 所以现在的市场有点像这样：短线玩家赚到钱先跑，机构资金则趁回调慢慢接货。🐋 从技术走势来看，RSI已经从高位降温至68附近，MACD仍处于零轴上方，目前更像上涨过程中的动能降温，而不是趋势突然掉头。 我的看法是，7.9万美元附近的抛压暂时压住了BTC冲击8万美元的脚步，但只要ETF资金继续保持流入，7.55万美元上方能够稳住，市场依然有机会形成新的抬高低点。 接下来就看一件事：短线卖盘什么时候消化完，机构资金能不能继续接住。 一旦卖压减弱，8万美元可能还One wallet sold 7,770 $BTC in three days, cashing out 576.6 million USD. I checked the on-chain records; this "bc1qsy" address started depositing to Binance from July 19, accumulating 12,513.5 BTC worth 850 million USD. Meanwhile, another address sent 1,000 WBTC to the F2Pool mining pool yesterday, valued at 77.4 million — sending to the mining pool basically means preparing to sell.
Brothers, the biggest buyer this week is the ETF, absorbing 2.6 billion in five days. The biggest seller is the whale, dumping 576.6 million in three days. The ETF money comes from retail investors through institutional channels, while the whale's money is old money exiting. Do you see this swap? Retail money comes in through IBIT to take the bags, while the whale's holdings go out through Binance to cash out.
Fear and greed dropped from 84 to 66, still in the greed zone but starting to cool down. The short whale on Hyperliquid is even more ruthless, opening a 235 million USD 10x short on BTC — the person who made 200 million from the previous market crash is now adding to shorts. Those who made 200 million are still shorting, those who made nothing are chasing longs; this market never lacks comedy.
A 576.6 million USD sell order in three days — do you think the whale is taking profits or running?
#BTC #WhaleSelling #ETF #SmartMoney #特朗普媒体链上转账2628BTC，性质未披露 This video was posted by "Money Path Mysteries" on August 11, lasting 15 minutes, discussing the impact of Trump's brinkmanship policy on gold.
**Core points of the video:**
1. The US-Iran confrontation is escalating; Trump uses brinkmanship (threats of military strikes, increased sanctions) to force Iran to concede.
2. The linkage of rising oil prices + yen depreciation + weakening dollar makes gold the only truthful safe-haven asset.
3. Treasury Secretary Yellen faces multiple conflicting goals: maintaining dollar strength vs controlling oil prices vs managing the yen.
4. Japan is passively hit and secretly increasing its gold reserves.
5. Capital is flowing from risk assets to safe-haven assets; gold continues to be bullish.
6. September 18 is a key date (BOJ meeting).
**My assessment: The macro analysis is of quality but has obvious intentions.**
**Reliable parts:**
- The US-Iran confrontation is indeed escalating; Trump’s recent stance on Iran is tough.
- Yellen is indeed facing conflicting multiple goals—this is a real macro contradiction.
- The BOJ rate hike expectation on 9/18 is high (76-80%), and yen short squeeze is indeed a risk.
- Gold has indeed surged this year; COMEX gold rose from $2,600 at the start of the year to $4,680 now (+79%).
- The logic of capital flowing from risk assets to safe-haven assets holds true in certain phases.
**Unreliable parts:**
1. **"The next 30 days will decide the year-end trend" is a typical FOMO headline.** Gold’s trend cannot be decided in 30 days; this statement is to create urgency to make you buy.
2. **This channel focuses on gold content** (all titles are #gold), clearly a gold bull KOL with bias.
3. **Selective ignoring of gold’s risks:** If the Fed turns hawkish, the dollar rebounds, or the US and Iran reach an agreement, gold could quickly correct down 10-15%. The video does not mention this at all.
4. **Comments point out issues:** Some say "Gold at $2,700 is wrong" (indicating some price data in the video may be incorrect), others say "Remember it’s physical gold, not futures."
**Relation to you:**
This video is **completely unrelated** to your current strategy because:
1. **You have no gold position.** You considered gold before but gave up—COMEX gold has already risen to $4,680, up a big chunk from $4,400-4,500; chasing higher is not cost-effective.
2. **Your rotation portfolio of 25 assets does not include gold.** Only XAU (gold ETF) is in the rotation portfolio but not yet entered.
3. **You are currently waiting for BTC/ETH/SOL to pull back, not gold.**
If you really want to allocate to gold, you should wait for a pullback to $4,200-4,400 before considering; buying now at $4,680 is just catching the top. But this channel won’t tell you that; it will only say "It’s not too late to buy now."
**Conclusion: The macro analysis is worth referencing, but don’t buy gold just because of this video.** Your current strategy is to wait for BTC to pull back; gold is not in your plan. If you really want to allocate, use a small amount of funds (≤¥1,000) from your rotation portfolio to test the waters on a pullback; don’t chase the high.#BTC #ETH
【Viewpoint Update】
I did not bottom-fish at 60,000 for BTC because it really didn’t reach my psychological price expectation, plus concerns about the high-level AI bubble risk in the US stock market, I always felt BTC would have a lower position;
But this week BTC strongly rebounded, judging from the changes in trading volume and the pattern, 58,000 is increasingly likely to be the bottom of the bear market;
Anyone trading in the past month should have felt the crypto market’s trading volume is frighteningly low, and volatility has dropped to freezing point. This is the calm before the storm. What’s certain is that there will soon be big volatility, but whether it will be a surge or a crash cannot be 100% confirmed;
Ultimately, this week’s trend unfolded with BTC choosing to rebound with increased volume, which is very similar to BTC’s movement in December 2022, both showing extreme volume contraction and very low volatility within the bear market cycle, followed by a weekly-level rebound that ultimately confirmed the bottom and then started a new bull market;
Combining this with the recent record-breaking single-day short liquidations, it’s clear that shorts were extremely crowded at that time. But looking at Binance’s long-short ratio data, there were actually more longs at the bottom. However, with the small-scale rebound, most longs started to take profits and then switched to shorts, continuously adding high-leverage heavy positions, which eventually led to the largest single-day short liquidation in history;
Many people, like me, did not bottom-fish spot at 60,000, so I’m sharing my upcoming trading plan, which is also suitable for those who didn’t bottom-fish at 60,000, for your reference:
First, I believe 60,000 is the bottom of this BTC bear market round, unless there is a historic crash in the US stock market. This probability is already very high. Although it’s frustrating for me who didn’t catch the lowest point, the current market trend shows this probability is very large;
Second, don’t regret it, because most bottom-fishers’ spot prices are actually higher than the current price. Although you didn’t bottom-fish at the lowest point, those who always bottom-fish early generally have prices concentrated above 85,000;
Next, we need to shift from a short-seller mindset and stop interpreting the upcoming rise as just a bear market rebound. But don’t blindly chase the rise. Even if the bull returns, the 80,000-90,000 trapped range will likely take about half a year to break through successfully. So during every drop of more than 15% going forward, keep accumulating spot. My expectation is to accumulate spot around 70,000;
If we are wrong and it’s not the end of the bear market, then the spot accumulated around 70,000 can be stopped out near 65,000. If your funds are ultra-long-term, meaning you won’t need them for years, you can also choose not to stop out, keep holding, and add positions again when it reaches the expected 40,000 area;
Finally: Based on historical trends and just looking at the crypto market’s current performance, the probability that BTC’s 60,000 is the bottom is already very high, unless next week completely erases this week’s gains and falls back to 65,000, or there is a major crash in the US stock market;
One more point to consider globally: If the crypto market bottoms, it means the global market won’t be too bad going forward. The US stock market will continue to hit new highs, AI’s high valuation will persist, and maybe the next crypto bear market will coincide with a global financial crisis, not this one. My previous caution was always because I worried this crypto bear market would coincide with a global financial crisis, which would push the bottom even lower;#阿里配股加码AI，回报能否覆盖稀释？
Alibaba $BABA is really putting its chips on AI this time!
Planning to place 80 billion HKD, 71 million shares? Correction: 710 million shares at 112.70 HKD each, 100% invested in full-stack AI; meanwhile, the latest quarterly AI cloud revenue rose 45% year-over-year, but capital expenditure surged 75% to 67.68 billion HKD, and net profit plummeted 75%.
My view: This is an aggressive bet of "exchanging profit for computing power, exchanging equity for the future." There is short-term dilution pressure; Hong Kong stocks fell as much as 8% today, so I do not recommend chasing the dip; 112.7 HKD is the placement price, observe if it can stabilize, and consider adding positions if it climbs back above 120. If AI revenue can continue to grow strongly, this 80 billion is ammunition; if AI monetization lags, the faster the money burns, the harsher the market criticism.How long can $NEAR keep ignoring the $ZEC rally? ZEC has nearly doubled in just a few days, while NEAR has barely reacted. And here’s the part the market may be overlooking: some of ZEC’s growing activity is already flowing through NEAR’s infrastructure. Zashi uses NEAR Intents to let users swap $BTC, stablecoins, and other assets directly into ZEC. NEAR’s own Intents explorer is showing substantial ZEC swap activity, while the broader protocol has processed billions in cumulative volume. (NEAR The US and Iran are at it again! Go short, target 75000.
BTC is hovering around 77374 now, I opened a short at 77349 with 20x leverage, currently a small floating profit.
Why short? Two reasons.
First, the US sanctions on Iran are really harsh this time.
Trump directly announced the "most destructive economic action in history" against Iran, Treasury Secretary Yellen said it will be the "strictest sanctions ever," and anyone who continues to do business with Iran will be sanctioned.
With inflation rising, the Fed dares not cut rates easily. A high interest rate environment is never good news for risk assets. Bitcoin surged from 64000 to 79000, up 15000 points, with basically no decent pullback, and profit-taking positions have piled up too much.
Second, ETF funds are indeed flowing in, but this is a double-edged sword.
Looking at the longer term, the biggest driver of this rally is a short squeeze—forced buybacks from liquidated shorts, not long-term capital entering actively. After the shorts are cleared, whether active buying can continue is still unknown. Also, the higher the price, the weaker the marginal effect of ETF inflows.
My position:
Direction: Short
Entry price: 77349.9
Current price: 77374
Leverage: 20x
Target: 75000
Summary: US-Iran sanctions push up oil prices → inflation pressure rises → rate cut expectations cool down → risk assets under pressure. Bitcoin’s rally is too large, with too many profit-taking positions, combined with a macro bearish turn, a pullback to 75000 is highly probable.
If the direction is right, hold it; exit when it hits the target, don’t be greedy. I think this move is solid.
$BTC
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 Woke up this morning, checked the dog project’s official Twitter, and instantly sobered up. Damn… after staying quiet for five days, the team started hyping the same old nonsense again at midnight. 🩸 I was literally staring at my phone thinking, here we go again. 📱 This kind of sudden hype makes me wonder whether the team is preparing to unload a massive amount on the market and leave fresh bag holders behind. If you don’t want to become exit liquidity, don’t rush in as cannon fodder just beca$OKB
Will OKX IPO in 2026?
It's not impossible; my probability estimate: official IPO in 2026 ≈ 30%–40%.
OKX's capital market conditions have clearly improved.
In March this year, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced a strategic investment in OKX, valuing OKX at about $25 billion, and both parties established business cooperation including U.S. futures and NYSE tokenized stocks.
Now that OKB is no longer tied to platform fee discounts, it is actually for the purpose of asset separation for the IPO.
Additionally, the continuous launch of tokenized U.S. stocks (xstocks), the introduction of the SEC's small financing framework, the launch of OKX's Exchange OS business, and institutional business entry—all these indicate preparation for going public.
There is still a good chance of going public this year. At least there will be significant progress in the second half of the year. 🚨 As of August 24, 2026, the real-time price of ETH is approximately $2430. Over the past week, ETH has experienced a thrilling battle between bulls and bears—rising violently from around $1900, reaching as high as $2550, then quickly falling back to $2390, currently precariously "walking the tightrope" around $2430. As an on-chain analyst, I believe ETH is currently at a critical crossroads for directional choice. This article will present a distilled in-depth analysis from five dimensions: support levels, resistance levels, on-chain whale movements, bullish factors, and bearish factors.
1. 📊 Resistance Levels: Which of the three major obstacles above is the heaviest?
First line of defense: $2430 - $2450 (intraday high-pressure zone)
This is the most immediate and pressing resistance range for ETH. In the past few trading days, ETH has repeatedly attempted to break above $2450 but failed each time. The $2430-$2450 range has accumulated a large amount of short-term profit-taking and sell orders. If the intraday level cannot break through $2450 with volume and confirm a retest, the short-term bulls will find it difficult to open up upward space.
Second line of defense: $2500 - $2550 (psychological barrier + recent high)
$2500 is a psychological integer barrier and also an area where many short stop-loss orders cluster. On August 23, ETH encountered a "sudden flood of sell orders" near $2550, followed by a waterfall decline to $2390. This means there is real supply pressure in the $2500-$2550 range, not just a psychological obstacle.
Third line of defense: $2722 - $2970 (massive trapped supply zone)
This is the heaviest mid-term resistance band. On-chain data shows that about 16.7 million ETH were previously bought in this range. Once the price reaches this area, it will face a large sell-off from trapped holders. Ali Martinez pointed out that ETH must effectively clear this supply zone to open the path to $5000. This is not a task that can be easily accomplished in the short term.
2. 🛡️ Support Levels: Which of the three defenses below is the most reliable?
First support: $2320 - $2390 (short-term lifeline)
$2390 is the key low formed after the plunge on August 23. If this level is effectively broken, ETH will face the risk of further decline. The $2320-$2350 range is recommended by multiple analysts as a "dip-buying zone." Whether this range holds determines the short-term trend's bull or bear dominance.
Second support: $2200 - $2250 (mid-term core position)
This is near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (around $2210) of ETH's rise from $1870 to $2550. At the same time, a large number of long leveraged positions awaiting liquidation are clustered above $2200. If the price falls to this area, it may trigger a chain liquidation reaction, intensifying downward pressure. Therefore, $2200-$2250 is a defense line that mid-term bulls must hold at all costs.
Third support: $2070 - $2150 (bull market structural bottom line)
This is the "breakout turned support" area formed after breaking the months-long downtrend line. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (around $2130) also falls within this range. If ETH breaks below $2070, it will mean the recent breakout structure has failed, and the price may further slide toward $2010 or even $1800. This is a critical watershed for judging whether the mid-term trend has reversed.
3. 🐋 On-Chain Whale Movements: What are the whales doing?
🟢 Bullish whales: continuous accumulation, strong confidence
In the past week, the number of whale addresses holding over 10,000 ETH increased by 17, a 1.74% rise. Meanwhile, about 180,000 ETH (worth approximately $440 million) flowed out of exchanges. Address 0x2d59 withdrew 120,000 ETH from Binance within three weeks. On August 24, another whale accumulated 4,000 ETH at an average price of $2399 over the past week. Exchange ETH balances dropped from about 7.7 million in early June to about 6.54 million in mid-August. This "withdrawal and accumulation" behavior is usually seen as a strong bullish signal.
🔴 Bearish whales: cashing out at highs, clear divergence
However, not all large holders are bullish. On August 21, two major whales sold a combined $63 million worth of ETH and staked ETH. The "7 Siblings" sold 14,000 ETH at an average price of $2346. More notably, Abraxas Capital established a short position of up to $783 million on Hyperliquid while hedging by buying spot. In the past four days, it withdrew 73,872 ETH (about $173 million) from Binance. This is a typical long-short hedge strategy—shorting contracts while accumulating spot—indicating the institution sees short-term downside risk but remains optimistic mid-to-long term.
The whale group holding over 1,000 ETH collectively reduced about 1.7 million ETH (a 2.9% decrease) from May to August. This indicates that above $2400, some large funds are orderly reducing their positions.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 The bull hasn't arrived, so don't get excited blindly.
After a few days of rising, some people are already shouting bull market. I sincerely advise you to stay calm. To put it simply, this wave is just the short sellers from before getting squeezed out, forced to cover their positions and buy back, which pushed the price up. Look at the weekly chart, ETH is still where it was. A 30% jump in a week is good, but if it can't hold around 2500 to 2600, don't even talk about a bull market, it can't even be called a rebound.
So what if the big whales add more long positions? We've seen whales get liquidated before, don't treat big players as faith.
My own trading idea: You can get some OKB, but don't chase near 110, wait for a pullback to around 105 and buy in batches. The volume has shrunk a lot, just test the waters with a small position. BEAT has dropped more than 60% in seven days, with a market cap left of just over 40 million USD, funds are still running away, don't itch to catch a falling knife. ZEC surged 70% in a week, contract positions are nearly 2 billion, you can't short or chase this coin, watching is the safest. TRUMP is fierce, doubling in a week, if 2.5 doesn't break there's a second wave, but only treat it as a short-term quick trade, don't get attached.
The whole market looks lively now, but it's actually a short squeeze holding up, not new money coming in. If ETH can't hold 2600, I absolutely won't admit it's a bull market. Just watch that level, if it can't break through, everything is in vain.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX Prophet: F1 and TI15 Results Revealed
Latest Objective Information
TI15 Grand Finals: Team Spirit made a 3-2 comeback to defeat Team Vision and claim the championship, with Yatoro achieving a triple crown. F1 Grand Prix race results are in, OKX Prophet betting settlements completed, and participants' outcomes determined. In the crypto market, BTC is oscillating at a high level, OKB as the platform token is slightly influenced by platform traffic events, with $BTC and $ETH leading the overall market direction.
Market Consensus
Those who guessed correctly are bullish on the platform token, believing $OKB will continue to strengthen due to the event; users who guessed incorrectly are more pessimistic.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Event betting is a platform marketing activity that only brings short-term emotional heat and cannot change the overall trend of the coin price. OKB's fundamentals rely on platform revenue, and its market performance remains highly correlated with the BTC market; do not mistake event hype as the core driver for the token's price increase.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally inclined to a gradual bull market return, this is solely a personal opinion and not investment advice)
The pulse effect of event hype is limited. $OKB depends on the overall market and its own support, and should not be blindly chased up due to events; betting speculation and coin price investment should be distinguished, with strict position control. $BTC
Last night BTC OI was about 106,861 BTC, ETH about 2.397 million ETH. Now the price is rising but OI is actually decreasing.
This is a good signal, not driven by new leverage pushing prices up, but rather deleveraging while prices rise. However, if the price momentum weakens due to the OI decline, then this is a bad signal, indicating a lack of sustained buying momentum in the market.
On the other hand, large holders' positions have clearly become more bullish. CMC currently shows total market Perp OI at about $473.1 billion, Volmex reference IV is about BTC 44.5, ETH 60.3.
So the current structure is:
Trend health is improving, but the crowd chasing longs is also increasing, and high leverage is still unnecessary. TRUMP team cashes out large amounts! One-sided sell-off of 1.1 million tokens, cashing out $2.94 million
Latest on-chain monitoring: The TRUMP team address acted again, selling 1.1 million TRUMP tokens through one-sided liquidity, cashing out a total of 2.94 million USDC at an average price of about $2.68.
Notably, this is a consecutive action! Yesterday, the team transferred 3.837 million TRUMP tokens (worth $9.33 million) to exchanges, and today immediately followed up with a dump to cash out. The project team's selling rhythm is very clear.
Many people don’t understand the harm of one-sided liquidity selling: this method involves the team directly withdrawing market liquidity without placing orders or probing the market, which is a definite bearish signal and more damaging than retail sell-offs.
The core logic of MEME coins is sentiment plus chip consensus; the biggest risk is always the project team’s uncontrolled cashing out. This round of continuous selling directly erodes market bullish confidence and greatly amplifies short-term selling pressure.
Personal practical view:
1. TRUMP is currently purely a sentiment-driven token with zero fundamentals, driven entirely by news. The team’s continuous cashing out indicates the official side does not recognize the current price level, so absolutely do not chase at highs.
2. Holders must lower expectations and be prepared for secondary dumps and sharp pullbacks; do not blindly hold through.
3. If the market quickly absorbs the bearish news and holds key support, it will only be an oversold rebound, not the start of a new uptrend.
Overall, the popular political MEME is currently entering a team selling cycle. Short-term speculative value is very low; it is best to wait and avoid taking over main force chips. $TRUMP #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
$BTC
The US-Iran sanctions have escalated again, essentially pushing the conflict that has lasted about half a year from "military + blockade" further into "comprehensive economic strangulation." The risk of energy inflation is indeed rising, but the extent and duration depend on enforcement and the actual navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz, not slogans.
The current background is clear: Since the US-Iran conflict began at the end of February 2026, there was a 60-day memorandum of understanding window (including temporary allowance for some Iranian oil transactions), but after the window expired, neither side made substantial progress toward a final agreement. US Treasury Secretary Bassett will announce the so-called "strongest financial offensive/economic D-Day in history," focusing on stricter secondary sanctions, threatening to cut off economic relations with any country "transfusing" Iran (especially naming buyers like China); Iran responded strongly, saying that continuing the economic war could lead to "not a drop of oil exported" from the Persian Gulf and threatened to seize violating vessels. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has shrunk significantly (pre-war daily flow was about 18 million barrels, recently far below normal levels), and Iranian oil exports have also dropped sharply. 
Oil prices have reacted: Brent recently fluctuated above $90 (once close to $94), WTI ranged between $85-$88, with a noticeable weekly increase followed by a pullback before sanction details were announced. The market is pricing in a "supply disruption risk premium" rather than pure demand. Downstream products like gasoline and diesel have clearly risen in the US and other places, and global logistics, chemical, and agricultural costs will also be affected through transmission. Fundamental Research Report $POL / Polygon (L2/Sidechain) $3.20
Essentially: Polygon ($POL) overall score 60/100, rating narrative outweighs execution. Breaking down the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture is realized.
First, the project: Polygon (token $POL), L2/sidechain track. Focuses on ZK+AggLayer upgrades. Competitors include ARB, OP. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, Gas spikes, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price $50-500/month, requires USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven track, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product deployment: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal natural person monthly active users; large addresses concentrated holdings may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by tech VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (accounts for +3.50% of circulating), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-track comparison): circulating market cap: Polygon $3.00B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. FDV: Polygon $4.20B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Annual revenue: Polygon $2.00M, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Polygon undisclosed, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots, some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. Ultimately: fundamentals solid (score 60/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraged expectations, FDV moderate. Potential risks: short-term large unlock dumping, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Next focus on these metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. The above judgments are based on public data and do not constitute any investment advice. Conclusions should be revised if key indicators deviate significantly.
Logic provided, decision is yours.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit$BTC Bitcoin is oscillating within a range waiting for direction!
On August 19, the Ministry of Finance extended long-term bond repos + ETF net inflow over 5 days was 1.918 billion, BTC rose 22% in 5 days touching 79.5K, shorts were liquidated for 1.44 billion;
On 8/22–23, whales dumped 7,700 coins, longs gave back gains, 24h liquidations hit 880 million (longs accounted for 750 million), price returned to the 77K midpoint. The rise is not due to lack of strength, but no one is stepping up to buy the second leg; the drop is not a bear turn, 75.5K weekend low still sees ETF buying.
Right now this machine is doing three things:
Leverage washout: OI still high at 55.4 billion USD, stabbing back and forth between 74–78K, both long and short chasers get shaved.
Waiting on macro: 8/26 Core PCE, NVDA earnings, 8/27–29 Jackson Hole (Warsh's debut)—if these three bombs don't go off, the main players won't reveal their cards.
Testing support: 75.5K hold = ETF spot base effective; 78K repeated tests = probing 80K psychological resistance; only after breaking and closing above 80K weekly can we talk about a bullish turn, breaking 74K means retesting 68–70K.
In short:
After a surge, it's "high-level rotation," not "trend end"; sideways is "macro pricing power handover," not "main players running."
BTC's current state = left hand locking in short squeeze profits, right hand waiting for Fed's direction, filtering out the undecided between 74–78K.
The most costly emotion in a range market is impatience. 74K is the bulls' lifeline, 78K is the bears' defense line, 80K is the narrative switch—before 80K, all "trend change" moves are just false signals within the range. $BTC BTC is approaching 80,000.
More and more people in the community are starting to say:
"The bull market is back."
But I think this statement is still premature.
Because we must distinguish between two concepts:
A strong rebound
and
a new long-term bull market.
This round of BTC is indeed very strong.
It quickly surged from over 60,000 to nearly 80,000,
and the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.61 billion last week,
indicating that institutional funds are indeed showing a clear return.
But at the same time:
More than $4.3 billion in short positions were liquidated.
Short squeeze itself also generates a large amount of passive buying.
So this rally includes simultaneously:
Real buying
+
Macro catalysts
+
Short squeeze
This is why the price could rise so sharply in such a short time.
So I won’t shout now:
"$100,000 is just around the corner."
But I also won’t try to top-pick and short just because BTC rose over 20%.
I prefer to let the market answer:
Can BTC truly hold above 80,000?
Can ETH and SOL continue the relay?
Only if both conditions are met,
will I further increase my confidence in a trend reversal.
If BTC breaks through 80,000 but quickly falls back,
then we must guard against a sharp pullback after the short squeeze ends.
In trading, prediction is not the most important thing. $BTC The momentum of this "currency devaluation trade" short squeeze started to fade over the weekend. How many friends are still chasing in at 79,000:
On 8/19, the Treasury doubled the long-term bond repurchase, the US dollar weakened accordingly, gold directly hit a historic high of 4,419, and the 90-day correlation coefficient between BTC and gold soared to the highest since the pandemic. This wave of iShares BTC ETF rose 22.6% in a single week, with three consecutive days of +6% daily gains. The spot ETF had a net inflow of over 1 billion dollars from 8/19 to 8/20. The short squeeze was real.
Yesterday afternoon, the spot price fell below 76,000, reporting 75,545, down 2.4% in 24h, and RSI has already dropped into the oversold zone. After the short liquidation ended, profit-taking began to sell off; the short squeeze day is over, and without new catalysts, only profit-taking remains.
Below, 74,200 is the 50-day moving average, 72,500 is a solid support level from February consolidation, and further down is the 70,000 round number. The mid-term "currency devaluation trade" narrative remains intact (weak dollar + strong gold + Treasury repurchase), but the short-term gains were already eaten up last week.
Now back to the 77,000 range, with a short-term breakout above 78,000, these days are expected to be slight fluctuations, but in the long term, I still feel bearish. Everyone, please operate cautiously Walsh's debut at Jackson Hole on Friday! One sentence could make $BTC swing 3,000 points—are you taking this bowl of noodles?
Federal Reserve Chair Walsh will make his first appearance at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bankers' Symposium this Friday. The market expects him to "ease the pain" for U.S. Treasuries—clearly explain the policy framework after significantly reducing forward guidance, so the bond market doesn't continue to collapse. But his previous moves to reduce rate guidance and hint at adjusting the inflation target have already spooked the market, with over 60% of economists believing the Fed's credibility crisis has directly pushed up long-term bond yields.
What's more troublesome is that Treasury Secretary Yellen wants to suppress long-term bond yields, but Walsh tacitly allows them to rise—there's a fight between the two sides. If Walsh continues to be cryptic on Friday, U.S. Treasuries will be hammered again, risk assets will fall along, and Bitcoin will struggle to stand alone; if he gives a clear signal, it will be a short-term positive.
Retail investors have one piece of advice: don't bet on direction. Wait until Walsh clarifies his stance before making a move. Those rushing in now are just paying tuition for Powell's successor. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $SPK liquidity lock-up is restructuring valuation support, with on-chain funds gravitating towards stablecoin infrastructure. SparkLend has about $3.55 billion TVL locked, combined with $1.15 billion in the Liquidity Layer and $2.36 billion in Savings. If the B2B stablecoin flow in August triggers amplified net inflows of altcoin funds, the chip lock-up effect will boost liquidity premiums. The key observation point is the Savings side lock-up; if there is a sustained net outflow of over 10%, this scenario will be invalidated.
#卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%#卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？
The boss has something to say
Kashkari has spoken out. He said the 10-year US Treasury yield is close to 4.7%, market trading and liquidity are normal, and the Federal Reserve does not need to directly respond to long-end rate fluctuations; it can continue to focus on inflation.
This statement carries significant information. After the Treasury expanded repos, the 30-year yield dropped from 5.33% to around 5.18%, and the market once thought it was a signal of policy shift. Kashkari directly interpreted this as "just liquidity management, not a signal of rate cuts or QE."
The question is what exactly is driving the rise in long-end yields. If it is just short-term trading pressure, expanding repos can suppress volatility. But if fiscal deficits, bond supply, and inflation expectations are driving structural repricing, repos can only temporarily ease it and cannot hold down the real financing cost increase.
The effect of the long-term bond repos lasted only one day; the 30-year yield returned to around 5.27%, indicating structural pressure remains. After Kashkari's statement, the market needs to reassess the direction of long-end rates.
On the market front, Bitcoin fell from 77,000 to oscillate around 75,000. All long positions were closed waiting for a pullback; stabilize between 73,000 and 74,000 before re-entering. PMI hit a four-year high combined with Kashkari's hawkish tone, making short-term chasing less cost-effective. $ETH $BTC $TRUMP
SPCX base positions continue their pattern with sufficient profits. The fundamentals of storage are fine, but wait for a pullback before acting.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; orders must have stop-losses set. Good luck.