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Nếu hỏi narrative nào tôi sẵn sàng theo dõi đến 2027–2028, câu trả lời của tôi là: RWA — Real World Assets. Ý tưởng rất đơn giản. Thay vì blockchain chỉ chứa: BTC
ETH
Meme
NFT hãy đưa lên blockchain: Treasury. Money-market fund. Bonds. Private credit. Stocks. Real estate. Commodities. Reuters Breakingviews từng dẫn dự báo của Standard Chartered cho rằng thị trường tokenized RWA — không tính stablecoin — có thể đạt khoảng $2T vào năm 2028. Nhưng chính phân tích đó cũng cảnh báo rằng hệ thống backWhen the Brent crude oil curve suddenly surges like a castle whose foundation has been pulled out, what I see is not the market, but a chess game where someone has already shattered the king's wing pawn chain before the opening is even halfway through.
A grandmaster calculates only one move ahead: the real money makers don’t play step by step, but have already figured out the position twenty moves ahead before making a move. The new US sanctions on Iran, superficially a conventional exchange limiting crude oil exports, are essentially a sacrifice to lure away — feeding a rear wing pawn to the C4 square in the Strait of Hormuz, enticing the opponent to trade the entire king’s wing position for that single barrel of oil. Tehran’s threat of “support equals war” sounds like a check, but it’s actually a feint exposing the king from cover. The gradual release of Iraqi oil tankers is not a signal of full reopening, but a rare “draw by force” illusion on the board: you are not pushed off a cliff, but every step costs you more.
Last week Brent rose 6.4%, WTI rose 5.7%, this is not natural fluctuation but a group of strong central pawns advancing in the midgame. They occupy space and buy time, but leave their own rear squares completely vacant. The real killer move is always hidden on the rear diagonal: diesel is the quiet passed pawn advancing to the baseline, able to navigate all the narrow alleys cut off by sanctions, ultimately transforming into the inflation queen in the pockets of ordinary consumers. Once this pawn promotes, all the safe king squares the Fed relies on will vanish — interest rates will no longer be defense but forced sacrifices. Treasury yields will be repriced, equivalent to the opponent using a double attack to pin your rook: you dare not leave the baseline, nor abandon the king’s wing defense. Gold, this ancient castle, is pulled out from the corner seeking refuge on the panic diagonal; BTC is the crazy bishop lurking on the rear wing — it ignores the opening book, only crossing the dual diagonal of geopolitics and inflation when oil prices tear open a gap, rushing into all the squares uncovered by traditional positions.
As for $xAMD, remember its current position: a pawn on the flank not yet engaged in the central battle. Many players permanently ignore flank pawns, but there are no useless pieces in the endgame. Once the central pawns are locked, the flank pawn is the decisive step. It is not the focus in the midgame, but the variable in the endgame.
In my training room, I never play blitz — slowing down is the only way to see every illusion your opponent exposes under time pressure. In this game, someone has pulled the energy inflation rook to the fourth rank, someone is holding the interest rate bishop in place, afraid to move, and someone is waiting for the next move outside Hormuz. Twenty moves ago, if you didn’t see this kill; now there are only two kinds of people on the board — those who have calculated the endgame thoroughly, and pawns discarded from the opening. #IranOilRiskEscalates Just a week ago, these positions were underwater.
Bernstein expects that as profit margins expand, Strategy is very likely to restart its buying strategy in the future.
On the other hand, economist Peter Schiff warned that artificial intelligence might compete with Bitcoin miners for electricity, capital, and data center infrastructure.
Schiff believes that AI companies and Bitcoin miners are competing for speculative capital and computing power, rather than being complementary technologies.
It took the industry one week to go from "losing money on every mine" to "floating a $2 billion profit."
But the real question is whether this surge, driven by fiscal policy and short liquidations, is supported by sustained spot buying.
If $78,000 holds, the direction may really have changed; if it doesn't hold, profit-taking could be the starting point of the next wave of the market. $BTC Brothers, today let's look at BTC and ETH together.
Just checked the data, $BTC is currently at $77,222, $ETH is currently at $2,442. Over the past week, BTC once touched above $79,000, ETH followed with a synchronous rise breaking through $2,400, but now both have entered a short-term adjustment phase.
📊 What happened? Three forces are pulling the market
Institutions are buying, leverage is being cleared
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion this week, and the Ethereum spot ETF also continued its net inflow trend. But in the past 24 hours, about $300 million was liquidated across the market, with long positions accounting for 62.56%, and Ethereum liquidations leading at $127 million. The real spot buying from ETFs is supporting the market, but high-leverage long positions are being passively cleared—after these two forces offset each other, the price has stabilized.
Macro support exists, but expectations are fully priced in
The US Treasury expanded the scale of long-term Treasury repos, and Bridgewater's Ray Dalio publicly advised "underweight bonds, allocate 10%-15% to gold, and a small portion to Bitcoin." This is a positive catalyst on the macro level. However, the market may have already priced in the good news sufficiently; Kalshi prediction platform data shows traders are betting on BTC around $75,000 by year-end, implying expectations for sideways consolidation for the remainder of the year.
Geopolitical risks are suppressing risk appetite
The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated "any country participating in economic restrictions against Iran will be regarded as an enemy." Rising geopolitical uncertainty may cause some funds to temporarily withdraw from risk assets.
📊 Current market status: digestion period after a sharp rise
BTC: Around $77,200, slightly retreating from the $79,000+ high. $75,000-$76,000 is the first support zone; $80,000 is a psychological barrier, a breakout with volume is needed to open the $82,500-$85,000 range.
ETH: Around $2,442, recently performing slightly stronger than BTC, with the ETH/BTC ratio showing signs of slight strengthening. $2,350-$2,400 is key support below; $2,500-$2,550 is short-term resistance above.
Analyst view: Eugene Investment & Securities analysts point out that even if the CLARITY Act is delayed, it will not limit the current uptrend cycle, as the SEC and CFTC are advancing institutionalization through their respective rulemaking processes.
💰 Opinion: The trend is intact, but watch for pullbacks
The driving force behind this rally comes from macro policy shifts plus real ETF buying, which is much more reliable than pure leverage-driven moves. But from $63,000 to $79,000, a sharp rise of over 25%, short-term volatility and digestion is a normal movement.
📌 Trading suggestions (for reference only)
· Long BTC: Buy on a pullback to $75,000-$76,000 with support, stop loss at $74,000, target $80,000-$82,500
· Long ETH: Buy on a pullback to $2,350-$2,400 with support, stop loss at $2,300, target $2,500-$2,550
· Short: Light short positions can be tried near $80,000 (BTC) or $2,500 (ETH) if rebounds are weak, keep stop loss tight
· Leverage: Within 3x, as sharp rallies have high volatility
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 $SPCX slowed down after rebounding above $136, with resistance around $140 and 32% short positions creating a tug-of-war.
On the 4-hour chart, the high points have been declining since falling back from $149.72. Although it has rebounded 30% from the early August low, selling pressure above the $135 issue price has not eased.
Fundamentally, Q2 revenue reached $7.814 billion, but quarterly capital expenditures of $18.369 billion and a $541 million loss have kept the $25 billion nominal short positions betting on cash flow pressure.
The large short volume has made the market extremely elastic; fundamental spending pressure suppresses valuation, while the dense short positions form potential short squeeze fuel.
If bulls can break through and hold the $140 to $144 range with volume, it will directly break the downtrend of lower highs, potentially triggering large-scale short covering and initiating a recovery path toward the $228 consensus target.
If the rebound fails to surpass resistance and falls below the $132 support line, the downtrend will continue, and the price will likely retest the previous low of $130.13 to seek liquidity.
The huge divergence among institutions on target prices between $100 and $228 means the establishment of a one-sided trend fully depends on key level breakthroughs or failures.
The most important variable to watch in the coming days is whether the volume can support a structural breakout when the price reaches the $140 threshold.
#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%BTC Morning Report｜August 24
Last week, BTC once surged close to $79,500, with a weekly gain of over 20%. Meanwhile, market statistics show that since midweek, more than $4.3 billion in crypto short positions have been liquidated.
So now, "massive short liquidation" can no longer be taken as a reason for unlimited continued rallies.
The reason is simple:
The first wave of the rally has already cleared out many shorts.
To continue rising, the following is needed:
Spot buying > new leveraged longs.
If in the next few days we see:
Rapid increase in OI + overheated funding + ETF inflows starting to decline
I will consider it a clear short-term risk.
CoinGlass's real-time derivatives data remains the key area I recommend focusing on.In the five U.S. trading days ending August 21, BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw their strongest weekly capital inflow this year. First, distinguish the timing: The data corresponds to the trading results from August 17 to 21. The Block completed its weekly summary on August 22, not the $2.6 billion new buying order on the weekend of August 24. Based on daily data from Farside Investors, BTC ETFs saw a five-day net inflow of about $1.918 billion, while ETH ETFs saw about $693 million, totaling about $2.61 billion. The Block's weekly results based on SoSoValue show BTC about $1.9 billion and ETH about $697.2 million, with consistent directions but slight decimal differences, indicating that data source update times and classification standards differ, so tail digits should not be considered absolutely precise. Capital was most concentrated during the week: BTC ETFs saw inflows of $517.2 million and $606.3 million on August 19 and 20, respectively; on the 20th, BlackRock's IBIT alone saw inflows of $503 million, accounting for about 83% of the day's net BTC ETF inflow. There are three main paths of influence. First, ETF subscriptions allow authorized participants to create and hedge shares through spot, derivatives, or inventory, creating marginal demand, but net ETF inflows cannot be mechanically equated with spot buying orders of the same amount. Second, The Block reported that the combined weekly turnover of the two ETFs rose to about $29 billion, more than doubling from the previous week, indicating a high level of trading activity$TRUMP The project team just made a major move: an hour ago, the team transferred 2.62 million TRUMP tokens to the exchange, which is worth as much as $6.21 million at current prices, and then directly deposited them into OKX. On-chain data is clear at a glance—this isn't a regular transfer, but a clear transaction on the exchange. 🤔 The project team put a large number of tokens on the exchange—if not for sale, then for charity? The answer is obvious. Looking at the token unlock mechanism, about 904,100 TRUMP tokens are still being unlocked linearly every day, which means about $2.04 million in selling pressure out of thin air every day. On one hand, the team publicly transfers tokens to exchanges; on the other, there is a continuous stream of daily unlocks—this dual pressure is compounding, and the market is under obvious pressure. From on-chain behavior to unlock structure, the supply-side pressure on this project is objectively real. For holders, it is important to closely monitor whether more tokens will be transferred to exchanges in the future; For traders, following the trend and rationally assessing risks is more important than blindly taking over. The market will not change the supply and demand logic just because of a token's name; data is the most honest signal. This is not investment advice, but it is worth everyone's consideration: when project teams begin large-scale transfers on exchanges, will retail investors still be willing to be the last to take the baton? 🚨 Risk warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. The above content is only on-chain data analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make independent decisions based on your own risk tolerance and pay attention to position management $TRUMP $BTC $ETH $SOL Today's market is focused on the new U.S. sanctions package against Iran, which is scheduled to be announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at 2 p.m. EDT on August 24. Iran has warned that the measure will fail, while tensions around Hormuz continue to disrupt global oil flows. Positives: Brent fell about 1% to $93.45 ahead of the announcement, suggesting the market is taking profits and has not yet priced in a new oil shock. But if sanctions cause Hormuz to continue to stagnate: Oil ↑ → inflation ↑ → Fed is difficult to ease → l过去24小时，市场出现了一个值得关注的变化：价格没有继续暴涨，但资金也没有明显撤退。 BTC连续守在7.7万美元附近，ETH略强、SOL回落；与此同时ETF维持净流入、稳定币供应继续扩张，但全市场成交量明显下降。 这意味着行情正在从此前的“逼空 + 快速反弹”，进入新的阶段： 高位消化 + 资金轮动 + 等待新一轮现货资金确认。 1️⃣ 📊 BTC连续横盘，反而比继续暴涨更健康 截至08:00 HKT： BTC：$77,212｜24h +0.04%
ETH：$2,446｜+0.77%
SOL：$94.62｜-1.51% 加密总市值约： $2.63万亿｜+0.32% BTC市占率： 59.18%｜下降0.08个百分点 从表面看，今天行情很无聊。 但结合过去几天的走势，这种横盘其实非常重要。 BTC此前从6万美元中后段迅速突破至7.7万美元附近，如果市场仍然处于纯粹的Short Squeeze阶段，逼空结束后通常容易出现明显获利回吐。 但现在BTC已经连续在高位消化涨幅，没有快速跌回原来的突破区间。 所以目前的结构更接近： 快速上涨 → 高位横盘 → 等待新的资金方向 而不是： 快速上涨Wow, just yesterday they were talking about $TRUMP continuing to pump, and today we see the team starting to sell.
Yesterday, 3,837,000 $TRUMP tokens worth about $9.33 million were transferred to OKX, and early this morning, they sold 1,100,000 tokens through one-sided liquidity, exchanging them for 2.94 million USDC at an average price of $2.68.
This is interesting.
On one hand, the coin price has risen nearly 86% in a week, and market sentiment is high; on the other hand, the team has already started cashing out.
To put it plainly, retail investors are still studying how much more it can rise, while the team is already figuring out how to convert their holdings into USDC.
Of course, selling 1.1 million tokens doesn’t mean they’re dumping immediately, since there are still plenty of tokens left. But seeing the team continuously releasing selling pressure at this level, you still have to be cautious #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注 BTC 在 8 万门前跳了一整周的踢踏舞，合约市场却先替大家把冷汗流完了。 你有没有那种感觉，明明价格没怎么动，但盯着清算地图，心跳已经替仓位做了好几轮俯卧撑？ 今天这份清算数据，表面是数字，底下全是人性。SNDK 这个合约，24 小时清算总额 61 万美元，不算夸张，但结构很有意思。1 小时级别空头被揍得很惨，空单清算量是多单的 10 倍还多；到了 4 小时窗口，空头更是被碾压到 74 倍的比例，那基本是单边绞杀。然而把镜头拉远，12 小时和 24 小时维度，多头的清算量反而开始压过空头，比例来到 1.7 到 2 倍左右。 这说明什么？短线空头被定向爆破，但中长线追多的杠杆也在悄悄出清。这个时间差里的对手盘互换，就是典型的波动阶段特征：方向未定，先杀杠杆。特别值得注意的是，12 小时清算量占了全天 66.7%，意味着大部分痛苦集中在欧美时区，亚洲时段反而相对平静。这种时间上的不均匀，往往预示真正的方向选择还没来，眼下只是前菜。 再叠加大盘的状态看，BTC 冲到 79,555 后回落，现在 77,000 附近磨蹭。ETF 周流入 19.2 亿美金，BlackRock 单日就干了 5 亿Why do I think the best investment targets in the past two years are short selling and cash?
Although dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin is always a safe bet, at the current stage, I won’t chase buying spot due to temporary news stimuli.
Because the global economy, led by the US, is clearly in a stagflation phase. This phase will be marked by a bubble burst triggered by an AI-led crash in the US stock market, leading into a depression period.
Why stagflation? The overall economy is not growing, but US inflation remains persistently high. Also, there is a severe local bubble in AI (none of the US AI giants have massively leveraged debt, and debt is the most essential sign of a bubble). The US stock market has risen for 20 years, even more exaggerated than my previous house price, so the bubble will inevitably burst, and AI will be the trigger for this burst.
When the US collapses, all risk assets will fall together. Currently, gold and Bitcoin are too expensive. Although they have pulled back somewhat, compared to historical gains, they are still too pricey.
Although Bitcoin will ultimately be the last to survive due to its global liquidity, at the start of an economic collapse, it will also be squeezed out of the bubble due to its risk attributes.
Of course, the risk of short selling is hitting the top and getting liquidated or stopped out, so what should be done now is to short during market fluctuations.
$TRUMP #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% According to reports, $NVDA Nvidia has already informed some major clients that the prices of certain AI servers delivered in early 2027 may increase by more than 15%, involving the Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell systems. One of the main reasons is the rapid rise in Memory costs. Data center clients such as Microsoft, Google, and Oracle have already started receiving new price information from server manufacturers.
The real impact of this issue may not be whether Nvidia can continue to make money, but that downstream players are beginning to face a reality: AI is becoming increasingly expensive.
In the past two years, the market has seen Microsoft and Google spend tens of billions of dollars annually on CAPEX, with the initial reaction being positive for Nvidia, storage, and data centers. However, as server prices continue to rise and long-term U.S. Treasury yields hover around 5%, the question becomes: how much cash flow can these AI assets ultimately generate?
For Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung, rising Memory prices mean increased bargaining power; but for cloud providers, it also means the ROIC threshold for AI projects is getting higher.
Therefore, the real turning point for the AI market ahead will depend on who can recoup the cost of expensive GPUs the fastest. This round of BTC market has evolved from a short-term panic rebound to a trend recovery driven by both spot buying and short covering. However, there is a sell wall accumulating at the $80,000 level, and short-term profit-taking is also occurring.
In the past 5 days, BTC surged violently by 26.81%, rushing from 62.7K to 79.5K.
This level of increase corresponds to the week marking the end of the 2019 bear market and the early 2023 recovery bull, representing a cycle-level recovery signal.
The real core bullish factor has been underestimated by the entire network:
✅ US BTC+ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.6 billion in a single week (the highest since October 2025)
✅ BTC had a weekly inflow of $1.9 billion, ETH nearly $700 million, both setting the largest net inflows of 2026
✅ ETF trading volume tripled, with institutional investors putting real money in
The derivatives market is far from overheated:
BTC funding rates are neutral, ETH is mildly bullish, with no signs of the crazy leverage bubbles typical of late bull markets.
On-chain data is even more critical:
Short-term funds are moving coins to exchanges. About 53,000 BTC flowed into trading platforms in the past 3 days, with 17,800 going to Binance, all from short-term accounts holding less than one day; meanwhile, long-term holders with over 6 months of holding did not transfer a single coin to Binance. This is the largest short-term inflow since February 2026.
Short-term profit-taking is happening, but long-term main holders have not left at all.
Early signals of the altcoin season have also appeared: total market cap has returned to trillions, and over half of altcoins have bounced back above their 200-day moving averages.
This is not a market top, but a high-level divergence and consolidation phase after a big rally.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% ETH 2500 달러, 지금이 사이클의 반등인지 재평가 구간인지 갈리는 지점이다 만약 2025년 하반기 상승장이 이미 종료됐다면, 현재 ETH의 2500 달러 저항은 단순한 조정이 아니라 새로운 레인지의 상단일 가능성은 없는가? 원문 게시물이 제기한 핵심 논점은 단순한 가격 전망이 아니라, 시장 참여자들이 아직도 '상승장 연속'이라는 기대를 가격에 반영하고 있는지, 아니면 이미 '장기 횡보'로 기대를 수정했는지에 관한 것이다. 이 글에서는 이벤트와 기대 차이(Expectation Gap)라는 렌즈로 해당 논리를 재구성한다. 현재 확인된 사실은 두 가지다. 첫째, BTC는 고점 도달 후 횡보 구간에 진입했고, ETF 자금은 여전히 순유입 상태다. 둘째, ETH는 2500 달러까지 도달한 뒤 추가 상승 동력을 확인하지 못한 채 등락을 반복하고 있다. 이 두 가지 사실이 동시에 존재한다는 점이 이번 관찰의 출발점이다. 시장 구조적으로 보면, ETF 순유입은 기관 자금의 위험선호가 완전히 #银行业支持CLARITY，稳定币奖励成争议
This time, the banks are playing the game of "I support it, but I need to change it."
The American Bankers Association has expressed support for the CLARITY Act, but with one condition — the stablecoin rewards must be strictly restricted.
Why are banks nervous? Because the 2025 GENIUS Act already prohibits stablecoin issuers from directly paying interest, but the current loophole is whether platforms and wallets can circumvent this by calling it "rewards." Banks fear that stablecoin wallets will use rewards to siphon off deposits, leaving them with no money to lend. Small business loans, mortgages, and agricultural financing will all suffer as a result.
Banks are defending their deposit base, while the crypto industry is fighting for the legitimacy of user earnings. On one side is a $25 trillion banking system, on the other is a stablecoin market worth hundreds of billions — this is a battle over trillions in capital flow.
Here’s my take. The banks’ approach is essentially regulatory arbitrage — verbally supporting the bill while actually using the threat of "deposit outflows" to pressure Congress into shutting down the earning potential of stablecoins. The earnings stablecoin holders make through on-chain protocols are fundamentally different in nature from bank deposit interest; the banks equating the two is itself a struggle for narrative control.
The CLARITY Act is a long-term positive for the crypto industry, but don’t expect it to happen overnight. Everything will be clear on September 15.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Bitcoin $BTC surged from 62,800 to 79,500 USD in a single week, an increase of over 23%, marking the best performance in more than three years. This violent rally is not just hype within the crypto community but a precise resonance of macro liquidity and policy expectations.
The U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases, pushing down long-term U.S. bond yields. Capital quickly shifted, and Bitcoin, as a highly elastic liquidity sponge, was the first to be snapped up. Shortly after, Trump summoned Coinbase executives to the White House to advance legislation, instantly igniting expectations of looser policies.
However, the core fuel driving the price surge was the shorts' flesh and blood. Previously, the market was overloaded with short positions, and breaking key levels triggered a chain of forced liquidations. Nearly 190,000 people were liquidated within 24 hours, with over $1.3 billion in positions cleared, the vast majority being shorts. This short squeeze essentially meant shorts were carrying the longs. Coupled with U.S. stock spot ETFs attracting over $1 billion in inflows in a single week, institutions put real money on the line to support the bottom.
Amid the frenzy, one must stay clear-headed.
Currently, the price is still nearly 40% below the all-time high of 126,000 USD. While the surge repairs sentiment, it also plants the seeds for a pullback. The high-leverage longs piled up on the chart are no different from the previous shorts. If there is any change in U.S. bond supply or the Federal Reserve signals hawkishness causing a reversal in the liquidity narrative, these high-leverage longs will also be liquidated.
"The strongest weekly gain" has never been a safety cushion but rather an alternative measure of risk density. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 BTC Strength Does Not Mean Altcoins Are Ready
$BTC touched $79.5K and $ETH broke above $2.5K, yet $H, $LAB, $KAITO, $BEAT, and $SNDK remain weak. This reflects capital rotation, not a lack of momentum. Liquidity remains concentrated in large-cap assets, while altcoins face new supply, thin liquidity, and insufficient spot demand. $KAITO also faces supply pressure following a major unlock. The message is clear: the market is selective, and broad Altseason still needs confirmation. $COIN US stock common shares surged 8.20% in a single day, while the on-chain token only rose 1.16%, narrowing the cross-market premium to 0.86%. The current core conflict lies in the weekend's insufficient risk appetite in the broader market and the strong resistance at the $193.60 Bollinger upper band.
The token is currently priced at $188.10, maintaining a 0.86% positive premium compared to the common stock at $186.49. The Nasdaq 100 token rose only slightly by 0.29% during the same period, indicating that the macro risk appetite weighted in US stocks did not fully spread to the crypto market over the weekend.
In terms of driving factors, the US stock common shares' gains on Friday were not continuously confirmed by the weekend's on-chain spot market, with a buying vacuum caused by the macro market closure dominating. Technically, the RSI14 is at a neutral 53.0, the MACD death cross has not yet turned bullish, and the green bars are shortening, reflecting that selling pressure has only temporarily eased rather than a momentum reversal.
The bullish scenario requires the US stock common shares to continue strong high openings on Monday. If the token is effectively pushed by a short squeeze to break through the 30-period high of $192.55 and hold above the $193.60 Bollinger upper band, the premium rate will be lifted, and the technical structure will shift to bullish dominance.
The bearish scenario triggers if the US stock common shares face profit-taking or open high but close lower after the market opens. If the token falls below the MA7 and MA25 moving average supports, the current 0.86% premium space will be quickly compressed, and the token price will fall back to the common stock anchor zone at $186.49.
If the common shares open high and the on-chain premium rate breaks above 2.00%, or the four-hour MACD completes a golden cross confirmation above the zero line, the bearish premium squeeze judgment will be invalidated.
The most important observation variables in the next 24 hours are the actual opening price of the common shares after the US stock market opens on Monday and whether the 0.86% cross-market premium rate undergoes mean reversion.
#SPCX本周解禁3.19亿股，抛压能否被承接？ #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战ZEC 20x in One Year: A Carefully Arranged Harvest Scheme for Retail Investors On August 23, 2026, ZEC closed at around $856. On the same day a year ago, it was less than $41. 12 months, about 20 times the usual amount. From August 21 to 23 alone, the increase exceeded 50%. Social media was buzzing: "Privacy coin renaissance," "Institutions entering," "The next Bitcoin." This article wants to do something buzz-killing: break down every building block of this surge for you and explain why—whether ZEC rises to 1000 or 2000—retail investors have only one correct move: not to participate. 1. First, let's look at what the price itself says. The chart above shows ZEC's real price movement over the past year (Yahoo Finance daily data). Note its shape: In October 2025, the "privacy revival" narrative ignited, surging from $74 to $292 in less than a month; After peaking at $698 on November 16, 2025, it has dropped 67% over four months, returning to around $230; In May 2026, news of the SEC's termination of the investigation pushed the price to $660, but then fell back again; From August 21 to 23, 2026, Grayscale's ETF filings combined with the headline "DCG plans to purchase 200,000 ZEC," surging 50% in three days. This is a typical event-driven pulse curve: every round of rally is ignited by news, and every peak is followed by a long period of bearish decline. The meaning of this curve is straightforward—upward supportScumbag Weekend Special on OKB
Image 1: OKB Daily K-Line
Currently, OKB is above the annual moving average, and the other moving averages are also arranged in order, showing a very strong trend.
The OKB that Scumbag previously held was cleared near the annual moving average. Now waiting for an opportunity to get back in.
So let's look at the entry points.
From the trend line, the 92~95 range is a relatively good entry zone, and under extreme market conditions, around 70 is an excellent entry point.
Image 2: OKB 4-Hour K-Line
From this chart, we can see that since the 4-hour Vegas tunnel line golden cross, the price of OKB has not fallen below the tunnel line.
OKB's current status is similar to the early hype stage; 60% of its future performance depends on the growth of on-chain transaction volume, and 40% depends on OKX exchange's support for its traffic.
From a valuation perspective, OKB is currently priced at 110, with a fully diluted market cap of $2.31 billion.
Looking at Hype, currently at 81, circulating market cap around $2.05 billion, fully diluted market cap about $7.7 billion.
In terms of on-chain transaction volume,
OKB's current on-chain transaction volume is around 40 million to 100 million,
while Hype's on-chain transaction volume has reached the billion level.
The transaction volume difference is about 10 times, but the market cap difference is only 3 to 4 times, which is due to OKX's premium on OKB.
Overall, OKB still has considerable room for growth; a market cap of 20 to 50 billion is not a dream.
Corresponding price would be 950~2380 The recent performance of OKB perfectly exemplifies the saying "It doesn't follow the bull market frenzy, nor does it panic during a market crash." In the extreme market conditions where BTC surged 15% in just a few days and then sharply plunged, OKB consistently traded sideways within a narrow range of $105-$112. As of August 23, the current price is about $110, with a cumulative increase of only around 6% over the past 7 days—neither keeping up with BTC's gains nor falling sharply with mainstream coins, it has established an independent "stable" trend. This is the result of the combined effects of its asset characteristics, capital rhythm, and fundamentals.
1. Why does OKB remain stable within a range while $BTC fluctuates wildly?
1) Major positive catalysts have already been priced in, entering a short-term catalyst void
The two core upward logics for OKB over the past year have been fully priced in, with no new unexpected stimuli:
- Deflationary base clearly stated: A one-time burn of 65.25 million OKB in August 2025, permanently locking the total supply at 210 million, and the smart contract removing the minting function. The scarcity logic comparable to BTC has been implemented, representing a "long-term positive but no short-term increment";
- Valuation benefits digested: The news in March 2026 that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) took a stake in OKX, valuing the platform at $25 billion, once pushed OKB from $77 to $120 rapidly. Since then, no further capital moves have occurred, and the sentiment boost has been exhausted.
In the past month, there have been no unexpected burn announcements or explosive progress in the X Layer ecosystem, lacking a trigger for an independent rally. Capital has no reason to actively push the price up and naturally chooses to trade sideways and observe.
2) Capital seesaw effect: drained during rises, sought as a safe haven during falls
This is the core reason for OKB's divergence from the broader market, perfectly matching the previously observed pattern of "mainstream coins spiking and platform coins fluctuating":
- During BTC's surge: speculative funds inside the market collectively sell platform coins, withdrawing capital to chase BTC and highly volatile altcoins. OKB experiences capital outflow and underperforms the market;
- During BTC's sharp drop: funds exit high-volatility assets to seek safety, with some flowing into OKB, which has real performance backing and less selling pressure, as a temporary safe haven. Combined with its prior lagging gains and limited profit-taking, it doesn't fall deeply and may even show slight counter-trend fluctuations.
The opposing forces of rise and fall offset each other, resulting in the current sideways balance.
3) Pricing anchor returns to fundamentals, with lagging performance transmission
OKB's core value support is always tied to OKX's trading fee revenue and buyback burns. Although BTC's recent volatility caused a short-term surge in trading volume, the market is still watching whether the "high heat can be sustained"—only when spot and futures volumes remain high for a long time, platform performance genuinely improves, and market expectations for next quarter's buyback burns rise, will OKB's price receive sustained fundamental support.
Currently, it is still in the transmission gap of "market fluctuation → performance realization → price feedback," and the market is reluctant to overextend expectations prematurely, opting to digest positions through oscillation.
4) Technical chip balance with clear boundaries above and below
The current price is exactly in the comfort zone for both bulls and bears, making it difficult to break without incremental capital:
- The upper $115-$120 range is a high point lock-in zone brought by the previous ICE positive news. Every time the price rebounds to this range, it faces selling pressure from unlocking positions;
- The lower $100-$105 range is a long-term strong support and a recognized accumulation zone for long-term capital. When the price dips here, spot buy orders step in to support.
Without new catalysts, neither side can break through the other's defense line, resulting in repeated turnover within the $105-$112 small range.
2. What’s next for OKB? Two key breakout signals to watch
OKB's current "stability" is not stagnation but a buildup phase before market rotation. Breaking the balance requires two core conditions:
1) The broader market enters a high-level sideways phase, with capital rotating outward: If BTC stabilizes around $75,000 without violent surges or drops, market sentiment shifts from "clustering on BTC" to sector rotation. FOMO capital will gradually flow into platform coins like OKB, which have lagged behind, opening a catch-up window. The first target resistance is the $120 zone.
2) Sustained trading heat validates and performance expectations rise: If the entire network's futures volume remains high for a long time, combined with OKX releasing better-than-expected quarterly burn data or a significant increase in X Layer ecosystem TVL, the fundamental logic will be repriced, driving OKB into an independent upward trend.
Conversely, if BTC continues to fall sharply, breaking the core support at $70,000, overall market liquidity contracts, and OKB will eventually follow with a supplementary drop. However, due to fundamental and long-term capital support, the decline will be significantly less than mainstream coins and altcoins.
3. Operational reference
- Holders need not trade frequently; OKB's downside is limited at the current level, making it a relatively defensive asset in the market. Patience to wait for sector rotation is advised;
- Prospective buyers can accumulate spot positions gradually in the $103-$105 range, with stop-loss set below $98 for a better risk-reward ratio;
- High leverage short-term trading is not recommended, as the narrow oscillation increases the probability of stop-loss triggers. Spot trading offers much better cost-effectiveness than futures.
Risk warning: This article is for market logic analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; please assess risks rationally and make decisions cautiously.这一周的宏观市场，其实比单纯看美股或BTC涨跌更值得研究。 短短不到一个月，政策层面已经出现多次稳定市场的动作：从汇率干预，到增加国债回购规模，核心目的都是缓解金融市场压力。但市场给出的反馈并不算积极——长端美债收益率依然维持高位，30年期收益率再次逼近 5.2% 区域，说明真正的问题并不是短期流动性，而是庞大的债务与融资成本。 美国政府债务规模已经超过 $39T，过去一年继续快速增加；与此同时，海外投资者对美债的配置也出现变化。 更值得注意的是资金流向： 🟡 黄金继续站在历史高位附近，成为传统避险资金的重要去处。 🟠 BTC在近期快速反弹后，一周涨幅超过 20%，重新成为全球流动性交易的重要资产。 🔵 长债却没有因为政策支持而出现持续性强势。 这释放了一个很重要的信号： 市场现在越来越在意的，不只是“利率会不会下降”，而是货币购买力以及主权信用本身。 如果未来通胀、债务扩张和财政赤字继续维持高位，那么单纯持有现金和长期债券未必是最优解。资本自然会寻找那些无法被政府无限增发的资产。 这也是为什么黄金和BTC同时受到关注。 BTC的逻辑正在从单纯的“高风险资产Beta”，逐渐向数字Monday morning session once again captured the wave ✅
Predicted resistance zone at 4625‑4635 with stagnation and pullback, the market moved exactly as expected, smoothly hitting the target range.
The market is rising all the way, and bullish sentiment is strong, but it's precisely at times like this that you need to stay clear-headed.
The rally won't last forever; recognizing high-level signals and avoiding chasing the highs allows me to be cautious while others are greedy. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% If $OKB is the "rock-solid" in this round of market turbulence, then $ZEC is the completely detached "lone warrior"—while BTC oscillates between $76,000 and $78,000 and mainstream coins jump up and down, ZEC has launched an independent main upward trend, with a cumulative increase of over 74% in the past 7 days and nearly 70% in 30 days. Its current price has surged to around $830, and its market capitalization has directly entered the top 11 among cryptocurrencies, becoming the most anomalous dark horse in this round of differentiated market conditions.
1. Why does ZEC surge against the trend while the overall market is sideways and volatile?
Its upward logic is completely different from BTC and OKB. The core is the breakthrough in compliance expectations plus valuation repair in its sector, combined with the leverage amplification effect of its small-cap nature, making it a typical "narrative-driven independent market."
1. Direct trigger: Grayscale advancing spot ETF, breaking regulatory taboo expectations
This is the core catalyst for this round of rise. Grayscale recently officially submitted an application to convert the Zcash Trust into a spot ETF, allowing the market to see for the first time the possibility of "privacy coin compliance."
Before this, privacy coins have always been a key target of regulatory crackdowns, blocked from institutional compliance doors, and their valuations have long been suppressed. Once the ETF is launched, it effectively opens the door for institutional funds to enter tokens with privacy attributes, directly reconstructing the valuation logic, with funds entering early to position for this zero-to-one expectation.
2. Regulatory environment shift, overall valuation repair in the privacy sector
With the advancement of the U.S. "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," the market's overall expectation for crypto regulation has shifted from "comprehensive crackdown" to "classified regulation." The privacy sector, which was previously most heavily suppressed by regulators, is now experiencing systemic valuation repair.
ZEC, as the largest Grayscale holding with the best compliance foundation among leading privacy coins, naturally becomes the preferred target for capital speculation in this sector, simultaneously driving the entire privacy coin segment including DASH and ZEN to strengthen collectively, creating a sector trend completely unrelated to the overall market.
3. Small-cap low liquidity + leverage boost, amplified gains
ZEC has a total supply of only 21 million coins, with a current circulating supply of about 16.8 million coins. It has long been a niche asset with high concentration of holdings and a very light market depth, so a small amount of incremental funds can leverage a large price increase.
Combined with leverage from the derivatives market, the current open interest of ZEC contracts is close to $2 billion, with contract holdings accounting for over 13% of the circulating market value, far higher than BTC's leverage level. After high-leverage funds enter, a short squeeze forms, further amplifying the gains—this explains why its rise is much more intense than BTC, essentially a result of small-cap plus high speculative leverage.
2. Risks of this rally: the faster it rises, the faster it can fall
ZEC is nicknamed the "Doomsday Vehicle" in the community, historically known for "violent rises and falls, coming and going like the wind." The risk points of this rally are very prominent:
1. Excessive leverage concentration, high risk of a crash
Currently, there is a large accumulation of high-leverage long positions in the market. Once sentiment turns and profit-taking concentrates, it can easily trigger a chain reaction of forced liquidations and a cascading long liquidation event. Its market depth is far shallower than BTC, so its ability to absorb selling pressure is much weaker, and the decline speed is often faster than the rise. Past trends show that short-term halving of price is not uncommon.
2. ETF is only an expectation, with high uncertainty for approval
It is currently only at the early stage of "application submission," and there is still a long process before the SEC officially approves it. Negative news such as rejection or delays can occur at any time. Privacy coins are much more sensitive to regulation than BTC, so whether the ETF can ultimately be launched is highly uncertain. If expectations are dashed, the rally will quickly fade, and everything will return to dust.
3. No substantial fundamental improvement, purely narrative-driven
On-chain data shows that the proportion of shielded address transactions in ZEC has long been low, and the real network usage demand has not increased in line with the price rise. This rally is entirely driven by compliance expectations plus speculative sentiment, without real business growth support. Once the narrative fades, the price can easily fall back quickly.
3. Subsequent trend and operational reference
In the short term, ZEC will maintain a relatively independent trend with low correlation to BTC: as long as BTC does not experience a market-wide liquidity crisis with a sharp crash, market hotspots will continue to spread to small-cap sectors, and ZEC, as the privacy coin leader, will still enjoy sentiment premium; but if BTC breaks key support and triggers a market-wide sell-off, ZEC will fall much more than BTC and mainstream coins due to poorer liquidity, and it does not have true downside resistance.
The current price is already close to the short-term strong resistance at $860, with technical indicators in the overbought zone, indicating a need for a technical pullback. The first strong support below is near $760.
- Holders: It is recommended to take profits in batches and set trailing stop losses. It is not advisable to hold stubbornly until the end, as narrative-driven market turning points often come very quickly.
- Interested participants: Absolutely do not chase the high. If you want to participate, wait for a pullback to support and stabilize before trying small positions, and strictly avoid high leverage.
- Long-term allocation: Not suitable as a value asset for long-term holding. Its nature is more of a sector speculative tool, with volatility and risk far higher than mainstream coins. #ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估
Risk warning: This article is only a market logic analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please assess risks rationally and make decisions cautiously.⚠️Why it is by no means "steady" and carries great risk
1. Large unlocking pressure from the team and investors
50% of the total tokens are allocated to the team and investors, unlocking starts at the end of 2026, which will create potential selling pressure later, and the market will price in this risk in advance.
2. Highly dependent on trading volume
The foundation of the price increase is fee buybacks; once DEX trading volume shrinks, buyback support weakens, and the price is prone to losing support. Historically, there have been phases where a sharp drop in trading volume was accompanied by a steep price decline.
3. Crowded leveraged derivatives
LIT derivatives positions are very high, with a large amount of leverage. Once the market turns bearish, it will trigger a chain of liquidations, causing single-day drawdowns of 20-40%.
4. Intense competition in the sector
Fierce competition with leading DEXs like Hyperliquid; if market share is taken away, revenue will be directly affected.
Summary
The essence of LIT's price rise: fee buyback and burn bring continuous passive buying + small circulating supply, allowing a small amount of capital to pump the price + narratives, whales, and external partnerships bring active buying.
But this is a high-risk speculative token, with no truly "steady rise," and the market can reverse very quickly. In the past week, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded a combined net inflow of $2.6 billion, marking the strongest weekly performance since October 2025. Among them, Bitcoin ETFs contributed $1.918 billion, while Ethereum ETFs attracted $697.2 million. Bitcoin once approached the $80,000 mark; it's hard to imagine a week ago people discussing a drop below $60,000 and a crash toward $50,000. $BTC Last week, we discussed that if this round of rally lacks sustained capital, another wave of capital is likely to follow, but now the data temporarily overturns that judgment. Moreover, this round of capital inflows has a notable feature: it is not evenly distributed but is highly concentrated among leading ETF products. For example, IBIT contributed about $1.09 billion over four trading days, representing a significant portion of total inflows. This concentration indicates that large institutional funds with clear allocation needs are entering the market, rather than retail investors buying. Previously, demand for Bitcoin ETFs had been weak for most of the year, and the decline at the start of the year left this key buyer out of the market for a time. This week's $1.9 billion inflow means this channel has reopened. Additionally, signals from the derivatives market are also worth watching. While Bitcoin's price rose by 10% to 11%, open interest increased by only about 4%, with funding rates remaining close to neutral. Analysts point out that this means the rebound is mainly driven by spot buying and short covering, rather than new leveraged funds entering the market. Leverage-driven rallies are usually accompanied by open interest rising in sync with prices, but this time it did not$MORPHO 不是普通借贷协议，它是DeFi信用基础设施。当前价格大致在$2.1–$2.8区间波动（近期曾单日涨超20%），市值约$1–1.5B，FDV更高，ATH约$4.17（2025年1月）。TVL维持在$8–9B+水平，Base链贡献突出，稳定币借贷活跃。 核心定位清晰：Permissionless市场（Morpho Blue）+ 策展Vaults，成为Coinbase ($COIN )、Robinhood ($HOOD )、Uniswap等的后端借贷引擎。它不追求自己拉流量，而是被大平台嵌入，获客成本低、粘性高。 最新动态方面，机构与分发持续落地：Robinhood Earn、Uniswap Earn、Coinbase加密抵押贷、Bitget合作、隐私协议集成（Zama）等。固定利率产品Midnight在Base上线，进一步打开信用市场。6月完成$1.75亿融资（Paradigm、a16z、Ribbit领投，估值约$20亿）。链上信号积极——8月中旬单日5.59M MORPHO离开交易所（自2024年可交易以来最大流出），7月也有4.35M流出，鲸鱼积累明显，浮筹减少。同时P$BTC $ETH #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 As of 08:36 on Monday, August 24, 2026, BTC was quoted at $77,697 (up +23% week-on-week, approaching 79,520 intraday), ETH at $2,458 (up +30%, once above 2,500). After the weekend insertion, the Asian session opened with the 77k midline, not a bearish turn, but a shift from "first wave of short squeezing" to "depreciation trading + second wave of continued ETF inflows." 🌍 Latest International News (morning of 8/24): US Treasury 'hidden QE' lingering momentum: Becent will repurchase 2 billion → 4 billion yuan per long-term bond contract, 10-year returns 4.74%, 30-year 5.27% remain high, US dollar index 98.8—unable to suppress long terminology but ignites 'de-dollarization' expectations, gold at 4600+ and BTC both in currency depreciation trading. Jackson Hole countdown: 8/27 (Thursday) Walsh will make his debut speech, market pricing in a 25bp December rate hike; Doves hint → push to 85k, neutral → grind to 78k, hawkish → return to 70.8k. Regulatory candy keeps the market alive: Trump urges for CLARITY bill vote in September, SEC issues 60-day call for Reg Crypto comments, Nomura Laser Digital receives Japan's first institutional license in four years, Standard Chartered raises its year-end BTC target to 126,000. ETF real money: 8/17–8/21 BTC ETF saw weekly net inflows exceeding 1 billion, BTC+ETH totaling 2BTC and ETH: Relative Capital Strength Difference Hides the Divergence Code of This Rally
In this rally, ETH significantly outperformed BTC with a weekly gain of over 30% compared to BTC's 20%, with the price gap widening to more than 10 percentage points at one point. The market generally attributes this to ETH's high elasticity, but overlooks the core divergence logic behind it: the relative inflow strength of ETF funds and the degree of supply contraction are on completely different scales for the two. In absolute capital terms, BTC leads by a wide margin, but in terms of capital inflow intensity relative to their market caps and supply contraction strength, ETH holds the advantage. This difference is the fundamental code behind the divergence in this rally.
First, looking at BTC, it is the absolute capital king but relatively weaker in strength. On the capital side, last week the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of about $1.92 billion, marking the highest single-week record since October 2025. The absolute volume accounts for more than 70% of the total inflows of the two ETF types, with a very distinct feature of concentrated accumulation by leading institutions. However, looking over a longer timeframe, BTC spot ETFs have still seen a cumulative net outflow of about $2.9 billion so far in 2026. This week's massive inflow appears more like a corrective replenishment after continuous outflows in the first half of the year, rather than a trend reversal with comprehensive new capital entering.
More importantly, the relative capital strength: BTC's total market cap is about 5.3 times that of ETH, but the ETF inflow scale is only 2.7 times that of ETH, corresponding to a capital inflow intensity per unit market cap of only about half that of ETH. This means from the perspective of capital-driven effects, BTC's upward efficiency is lower and requires more capital to drive the same price increase. This is reflected in the market as a typical institutional rally characteristic: a gentle pace of rise, each step accompanied by sufficient turnover, small intraday pullbacks, and solid support below. When the price approaches the $80,000 psychological level, the trapped positions between $78,000 and $82,000 formed at the end of 2025 are released in concentration, creating strong resistance. This determines that BTC is unlikely to break new highs in one go and is more likely to gradually digest selling pressure through a choppy upward trend. Technically, $75,000 is the core cost line for institutional positions in this rally and also a strong support level; holding this level keeps the medium-term bullish bias intact.
Next, ETH, although smaller in absolute capital, benefits from a dual resonance of relative strength and supply contraction, becoming the core driver of its outperformance. On the capital side, last week the spot ETH ETF had a net inflow of about $700 million, also hitting a nearly ten-month high. The absolute volume is only about one-third of BTC's. But ETH's total market cap is only 18.8% of BTC's, and the ETF capital inflow intensity per unit market cap reaches about twice that of BTC, significantly amplifying the capital-driven effect. This is the direct reason for ETH's larger gains in this rally.
Structural supply contraction further amplifies the upward elasticity. On-chain data shows that Ethereum staking has surpassed 41.4 million coins, accounting for 34.4% of the total supply, a new all-time high, with more than one-third of circulating tokens locked long-term in staking contracts. Meanwhile, ETH balances on exchanges have dropped about 10% year-to-date, reaching lows not seen since 2015. A large amount of tokens have moved from exchanges to staking contracts and self-custody wallets, continuously reducing the tradable supply in circulation. Enhanced capital inflows on the demand side combined with shrinking circulating supply on the supply side jointly drive rapid price increases, naturally giving ETH much higher elasticity than BTC. However, this rally also has a clear emotional component, with a high proportion of derivative leverage funds. Once upward momentum slows, profit-taking leads to larger pullbacks, as evidenced by ETH's weekend decline nearly twice that of BTC. Technically, the $2380-$2400 range is a short-term dense support zone; a decisive break below this will open up room for correction.
Overall, the essence of this rally's divergence lies in the difference in capital strength and supply structure: BTC follows an absolute capital-driven institutional allocation repair logic, steady and persistent; ETH follows a relative capital plus supply contraction elasticity game logic, more volatile but with stronger pulses. With the Jackson Hole global central bank conference approaching, the market is entering a policy wait-and-see period, and this divergence is likely to continue.
In terms of strategy, the two require different approaches: BTC is suitable for a mid-term allocation mindset, continuing to hold the base position, buying in batches on pullbacks to support zones, avoiding blind chasing or easy shorting; ETH suits a swing trading approach, taking profits in batches at resistance zones, waiting for pullbacks to stabilize before considering buying dips, strictly controlling position size and leverage to avoid catching tops in highly emotional phases. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #ZEC hits a new all-time high on the site, privacy asset revaluation
$ZEC is very strong, but leverage has also gone crazy, don’t use your own principal as fuel for the shorts!
ZEC is really fierce this round: on August 22, it surged to $855 at one point, a new high since 2018. The 24H contract trading volume even reached $9.54 billion, while spot volume was only about $1.06 billion, and open interest was about $1.8 billion, indicating a strong presence of leverage in this rally. A bigger catalyst is that Grayscale has advanced the Zcash Trust towards a “Zcash ETF,” expected to seek trading on NYSE Arca around August 25; meanwhile, Cypherpunk has acquired about 18% of the total network hash rate.
My strategy: don’t chase above $800, observe support between $780–$800 on pullbacks; if volume increases and it stabilizes above $855, then look towards $900–$1000. The ETF launch would confirm the trend; if it doesn’t happen, it’s just “expectations driving the price up first.”The line between the US and Iran has escalated again #美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元
US Treasury Secretary Bessent is preparing to announce a new round of sanctions on Iran, describing this action as an "economic D-Day" against Iran. The focus is not only on continuing to sanction Iranian companies but also on further tracking and targeting countries, companies, and financial networks still trading with Iran.
Iran's response is also very direct: if the US continues to increase economic pressure, it may take measures to block oil exports from the Gulf region.
Interestingly, Brent $BZ is still around the $90 mark and has not priced in the worst-case scenario.
I think this is actually where the risk lies.
Because the Strait of Hormuz has already seriously affected global energy transportation, if the US next expands secondary sanctions to Iran's trade partners, the issue will escalate from "whether ships can pass" to "who still dares to buy Iranian oil, who still dares to help settle and transport it."#美国PMI创四年新高，9月加息分歧升温
The impact on the crypto space is twofold.
First, the macro headwinds are accumulating. A stronger PMI means the Federal Reserve will find it harder to pivot to easing, and expectations for rate cuts are slow to build. For BTC to break through 80,000, it will have to rely on its own narrative, the CLARITY Act, ETF inflows, and Trump’s policies, rather than the macro environment.
Second, the economy not entering a recession itself is a support. A strong PMI indicates corporate profits haven’t collapsed, so risk appetite won’t be too poor. BTC’s current sideways movement is largely related to the fact that the US stock market hasn’t crashed. But a stronger PMI also means the window for rate cuts is pushed further out, blocking short-term valuation expansion.
In short, a PMI exceeding expectations is a double-edged sword for risk assets. A strong economy supports profits, but no rate cuts suppress valuations. For cryptocurrencies, this means continued high-level volatility in the short term, and the direction needs more catalysts. The vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15 is the next key milestone. Be patient; a big opportunity is coming soon.
$BTC $ETH $DOGE BTC's strength does not mean altcoins are ready yet
$BTC reached $79.5K, $ETH broke through $2.5K, but $H, $LAB, $KAITO, $BEAT, and $SNDK remain weak. This reflects capital rotation, not a lack of momentum. Liquidity is still concentrated in large-cap assets, while altcoins face new supply, thin liquidity, and insufficient spot demand. $KAITO also faces supply pressure after a major unlock. The message is clear: the market is selective, and a broad altcoin season still needs confirmation. BTC went from 64K to 79.5K, covering what others did half a year in two weeks, and then what? Have you noticed that when everyone starts discussing the same thing, it's often already halfway through? Let me start with some data: BTC surged over 24% in two weeks, ETH surged 25% in a single week but then began to pull back. This is not an ordinary rally; it is the result of a triple force of bond market liquidity, sustained ETF inflows, and repeatedly squeezed short sellers. But the problem lies precisely here—when all three positive factors are on the surface simultaneously, the market has already priced in the most optimistic scenario. My own feeling is that the current plate surface is like a glass of water poured too full—one more step and it will overflow. BTC's journey from 64K to 79.5K saw almost no significant pullback. This move was sentimentally strong but structurally fragile. Because a rapid rally means the cost of chips is highly concentrated at the top, and once momentum slows, the take-profit and high-chasing stamps will look very bad. So I'm not in a hurry to chase; I'm looking at a few more critical positions. - Whether BTC can hold between 74K and 76K depends on whether the framework of the medium-term trend still exists. - Whether ETH can hold around 2.3K to 2.35K depends on the breathing rhythm of altcoins — selling pressure during pullbacks is decreasing; this speaks better than increased volume during rallies. If BTC can break through 80K with volume and ETFs, I also tend to agree with Bitfinex's assessment. $BTC has risen over 20% this week, but the contract funding rate only briefly spiked during the breakout and then quickly dropped back down. There hasn't been a situation where the price rises and the leveraged longs become increasingly crowded. Normally, if this rally was mainly driven by contract funding, the funding rate would stay at a relatively high level, but this structure clearly isn't like that.
Two other data points are also worth noting. Spot CVD has remained relatively strong during this period, indicating that there are indeed buyers continuously absorbing supply on the spot side; Coinbase Premium had been significantly negative for a long time but has recently been narrowing quickly, now hovering near zero and occasionally turning briefly positive, though it hasn't formed a sustained positive premium yet.
So, I think the structure of this BTC rally is still relatively healthy: the price has risen a lot, derivatives are not obviously overheated, and spot buying has actually remained quite strong. If Coinbase Premium can continue to turn positive, it would indicate that spot buying in the US has truly returned.The rise of BTC from 64K to 80K has already been priced in, and the market is now repricing the direction of the next capital deployment rather than the sustainability of that rise. The key question in this range is who holds on and who exits, but where is the capital moving now? The original text illustrates the post-Bitcoin surge consolidation around 77K, ETH's sluggish trend, the typical profit-taking pattern of altcoins, and the relative strength of exchange coins in one picture. To summarize the facts: - BTC surged sharply from 64K to 80K in the short term and has since been consolidating around 77K. - ETH showed a relatively slower pace during BTC's rise and experienced more pronounced declines during the consolidation phase. - Some altcoins (such as BICO) exhibited a pattern of rising, attracting inflows with positive news, then gradually declining. - OKB defended the 110 support level and rose to 180, while BNB held the 700 support level with a mid-to-long-term target of 1200 suggested. - St🗓 Bitcoin Weekly Outlook｜PCE + Jackson Hole Set the Tone, Focus on the 80,000 Level!
Brothers and sisters, BTC rose more than 22% last week, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2024. It surged from 62,800 straight toward 80,000, with shorts liquidated over $3 billion.
However, after the rally, this week is the real test for the bulls. A series of important events and data releases this week could cause significant price volatility for Bitcoin.
1. Key Financial Events This Week
Three events will directly determine BTC's short-term direction this week:
🔥 Event 1: August 26 (Tuesday) US July PCE Inflation Data + Q2 GDP Revision
On Tuesday evening Beijing time, the US will release July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the second estimate of Q2 GDP. This is the Fed's most closely watched inflation indicator.
Market impact path:
🔶 Moderate PCE (in line with expectations) → Rate cut expectations consolidate → Positive for BTC, likely to retest 80,000;
🔶 PCE exceeds expectations → Inflation stickiness concerns rise → May trigger profit-taking.
🔥 Event 2: August 28 (Thursday) Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting
Fed Chair Wash will deliver a keynote speech on August 28. A Bank of America survey shows 69% of fund managers expect Wash's tone to be neutral.
TD Securities analysts note that if Wash emphasizes inflation credibility, support for the dollar will be limited; but if he fails to adequately address inflation concerns, the dollar may face significant downside pressure. A weaker dollar is bullish for BTC.
🔥 Event 3: August 26 After US Market Close Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia's Q2 earnings will also be released after Tuesday's market close, with options markets expecting about ±10% volatility post-earnings. As a core indicator of AI computing power, its earnings may influence tech stock sentiment, which could then affect BTC risk appetite.
2. BTC Price Analysis and Projection This Week
Core observation range this week: 75,000-80,000
Resistance above:
🔶 78,500-79,500: Short-term pressure zone, the level where price pulled back on Friday;
🔶 80,000: Key psychological level + near the 50-week moving average, an important resistance widely watched by the market.
Support below:
🔶 75,000-76,000: First line of defense; if held, the high-level consolidation structure remains intact;
🔶 72,600-73,000: Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level, deeper pullback support.
Price path projections:
Path 1 (50% probability): Moderate PCE, test 80,000 then pull back.
If PCE meets expectations, the market prices in rate cuts, and BTC retests the 80,000 level. However, the 50-week moving average and trapped positions create heavy resistance, so after the rally, a pullback to 75,000-76,000 to confirm support is likely.
Path 2 (30% probability): PCE exceeds expectations, pull back to 73,000-74,000 first.
If inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, the market reprices rate hike expectations, and BTC pulls back near 73,000-74,000. If 73,000 holds, the pullback could be a buying opportunity for spot positions.
Path 3 (20% probability): Wash dovish, volume breakout above 80,000.
Moderate PCE + Wash signals dovish tone, BTC breaks above 80,000 with volume and weekly closes above the 50-week moving average, confirming a phase D breakout, targeting 82,000-83,000.
3. Strategy Reference
This week is data-heavy, with volatility expected to increase significantly. Position management is more important than directional judgment.
Bullish strategy:
Light buying on volume contraction and stabilization in the 75,000-76,000 range, stop loss below 74,000, target 79,000-80,000. If volume breaks above 80,000 and holds, add on the right side.
Bearish strategy:
If resistance signals appear near 79,500-80,000 (long upper shadow/solid bearish candle), light short positions can be tried, stop loss at 81,000, target 77,000-75,000.
Conservative strategy:
Wait for both PCE (August 26) and Jackson Hole (August 28) data to be released and direction to become clear before acting. Missing the start is not scary; making the wrong move is.
This week is a macro validation week: PCE and Wash's speech will decide whether this 22% rebound is the end of a short squeeze or the start of a bull market. The verdict will be at 80,000.上周美债收益率飙了一波，整个市场被吓了一跳
这周（8月24–28日）更刺激
AI 财报和美联储态度，同一周摊牌
我把几个关键节点捋一下
//
周三晚上，英伟达（NVDA）盘后出财报
这是本周最重要的一个事件，没有之一
华尔街预期营收 910–950亿美元，同比接近翻倍
但数字本身不是重点
大家真正紧张的是三件事：
➢ 芯片换代顺不顺——Blackwell 到下一代 Vera Rubin 的过渡
➢ 数据中心的订单还在不在爆
➢ 毛利率能不能继续撑在 75% 附近
（解释一下：毛利率就是每卖 100 块钱能剩多少毛利。75% 已经非常高了，市场怕它往下掉。）
如果英伟达给的下季度指引超预期→大家会觉得AI投资还远没到头，继续买
如果指引保守哪怕一点点→高估值的科技股可能一起跌
同一天 Salesforce、CrowdStrike 也出成绩
等于整条AI软件赛道一起被检验：你们到底靠 AI 赚到真金白银没有？
//
宏观数据也在这周扎堆
核心PCE和GDP修正值前后脚公布
PCE你可以理解成美联储最看重的通胀指标
如果这个数偏高→说明通胀还没降下来，利率可Thị trường vừa đảo chiều bất ngờ, khiến phe bán không kịp trở tay. $ETH được kỳ vọng sẽ giảm xuống dưới 2.350 USD trong phiên sáng để mang lại lợi nhuận cho vị thế short, nhưng diễn biến thực tế lại đi ngược dự đoán. Đến chiều, giá bật tăng trở lại mạnh mẽ, biến lệnh đang xanh thành đỏ lòm chỉ trong tích tắc. Không chỉ Ethereum, $BTC cũng đồng loạt leo dốc. Cặp đôi song sinh một lần nữa cho thấy sự đồng thuận hiếm có khi cùng lúc đẩy giá lên, khiến phe bán gần như không thể ngẩng đầu. Tâm lý bị $ETH Ethereum has recently surged strongly, breaking through $2500 and maintaining a high level above $2400, with on-chain whales voting with their positions.
Currently, among the top ten contract holding addresses on the Ethereum chain, excluding the short hedge addresses of Abraxas Capital and Fasanara Capital, and excluding the market-making address of Wintermute, the remaining six major whales are collectively bullish, with a total long position reaching $359 million.
Notably, the "819 ETH Insider Whale" who precisely opened a long position before the 819 surge still holds their position, with a position size of $48.85 million, unrealized profits exceeding $10 million, and has not reduced their holdings.
Additionally, after the 819 rally on the 19th, the on-chain open contracts for ETH slightly declined on the 22nd, but today they have again surpassed $2 billion. Further significant volatility is expected. The on-chain liquidation map shows that bulls and bears are evenly matched, with resistance levels close between an upward breakout at $3000 and a drop to $2000.Full-day Review
In the past 24 hours, BTC moved from $77,121.10 to $77,546.10, closing up +0.55%, with a volatility range of 3.25 percentage points.
The highest point was $78,065.70, the lowest point $75,559.50, with a trading volume of $413.33M, featuring at least 3 rounds of long and short battles.
Across the market, 107 assets rose while 27 fell, with rising assets accounting for 79.9 percentage points, showing clear profit-taking sentiment.
Sector Overview:
GameFi sector average 0.00%, representative tokens: $AXS flat, $SAND flat
Privacy coin sector average 0.00%, representative tokens: $XMR flat, $ZEC flat
Exchange token sector average 0.00%, representative tokens: $OKB flat, $BNB flat
Legacy/Litecoin sector average 0.00%, representative tokens: $LTC flat, $BCH flat
Total market trading volume was $1.86B, with a volume change of +5 percentage points compared to the previous 24 hours.
Strongest token $SPK +31.48%, weakest token $AEON -10.97%, with a strength gap of 42.5 percentage points.
Summary: BTC closed positive, sectors showed some divergence but overall sentiment is not bad. Next, we will see if trading volume can continue to keep up.
Public market data, not investment advice, please judge for yourself.
That's all for the market overview, handle it as you see fit. $BTC consolidation after surge, continuous inflow of ETF funds The biggest change in this market cycle is not the price increase, but the structure of the buying side
After $BTC quickly broke through $70,000 and surged to above $72,000 at its peak, it has now entered a high-level consolidation phase.
If you only look at the price, it’s easy to interpret this as weakness after the surge. But what I’m more focused on is not the short-term candlesticks
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 #BTC consolidation after surge, continuous inflow of ETF funds The biggest change in this market cycle is not the price increase, but the structure of the buying side
After BTC quickly broke through $70,000 and surged to above $72,000 at its peak, it has now entered a high-level consolidation phase.
If you only look at the price, it’s easy to interpret this as "weakness after the surge." But what I’m more focused on is not the short-term candlesticks, but the changing source of funds behind this rally.
In the past few days, BTC’s initial rise was indeed accompanied by a clear short squeeze. During the breakout, there was large-scale liquidation of short positions, which temporarily accelerated the upward momentum. However, if the rally was purely driven by a short squeeze, normally after the shorts are cleared, the buying pressure should quickly diminish.
What’s noteworthy now is:
The price is consolidating, but ETF funds continue to flow in.
Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.9 billion, and the ETH ETF recorded a net inflow of about $697 million during the same period, attracting a combined total of approximately $2.6 billion, marking one of the strongest weekly capital inflows this year. ETF trading volume also noticeably increased. (The Block)
On August 19 alone, the US spot BTC ETF had a single-day net inflow of about $517 million, the highest in three and a half months. (The Block)
This is why I believe the current BTC consolidation at high levels should not be simply interpreted as a market top.
Because there are actually two forces in the market now:
On one side, short-term profit-taking after BTC rapidly rose from around $64,000 to above $72,000; on the other side, ETFs, spot, and longer-term funds are continuously absorbing the supply.
Short-term funds want to cash out, but long-term funds are accumulating.
So the price stalling temporarily doesn’t necessarily mean demand has disappeared; it could just mean the market needs to complete a reshuffling of positions after a rapid rise.
Previous analysis also pointed out that although this BTC breakout above $72,000 was driven by large-scale short liquidations, spot and ETF demand also participated, and whether the $70,000 level can hold will be an important criterion to judge if the rally can evolve from a "short squeeze rally" into a sustained trend. (The Block)
Next, I will focus on two key levels.
If BTC can maintain above $70,000 after a pullback and ETF inflows continue, I am more inclined to interpret this as strong consolidation rather than the end of the trend.
But if ETF inflows start to noticeably decline and BTC falls back below the breakout zone, then a reassessment is needed: how much of the previous rise came from genuine incremental funds, and how much was just short covering creating short-term liquidity.
The real danger in the market is never that the price is too high, but that the price remains high while marginal buyers start to disappear.
At least from the current capital flow perspective, this signal has not appeared yet.
So rather than guessing whether BTC’s next candlestick will go up or down, I want to continue observing one thing:
After the short squeeze ends, can ETF funds truly sustain this rally?
If yes, then the nature of this market cycle might be completely different from an ordinary rebound. $BTC 现在不是追涨的时候，是时候想想谁在偷偷下车了。 你有没有发现，行情越热闹，反而越让人心里发毛？ 先给这轮走势定个调：这不是趋势加速，这是杠杆清理前的最后狂欢。从衍生品结构看，市场正在走一段"强弩之末"的博弈行情，越往上，承接越虚。 BTC从64,000一路冲到80,000，涨了16,000点；ETH从1,800爬到2,500，也有700点空间。看起来是牛市叙事，但合约市场的未平仓量已经堆到让人不安的高度。涨得越陡，清算序列就越长，这个道理在衍生品市场从来不会失效。 - 现在多头杠杆成本在快速抬升，资金费率持续偏高，说明新进场的仓位大多是借来的勇气。 - 空头不是没有，但64,000附近的空单已经被套得很深，他们不是不想跑，是跑不掉。 - 真正危险的是那些中途上车的多头，一旦价格开始回调，最先被扫掉的就是这群人。 我自己的感受是，这个位置更像是"多空都在赌对方先撑不住"的僵局。表面上是ETF资金持续流入的利好，实际上衍生品市场已经进入高波动预备状态。涨的时候有多凶，回头修正的时候就有多疼，这不是玄学，是杠杆结构的物理定律。 ETH触及2,500之后开始震荡，SOL也跟着缩量，说明资金开始#ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500; the real test is just beginning
The strength of this round of ETH rebound has clearly exceeded many people's expectations. From around $1900 in mid-August, it surged all the way up, approaching $2500 again within just a few days. This week's increase once exceeded 20%, and market sentiment quickly shifted from extreme caution to chasing gains. (FinanceFeeds)
However, I believe that the area around $2500 is actually the key position to observe in this rally.
This rise is not just a technical oversold rebound. After the U.S. Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, the market resumed trading on improved liquidity and a weaker dollar logic, with BTC, gold, and ETH all strengthening simultaneously; meanwhile, the U.S. spot ETH ETF recorded nearly $700 million in net inflows in the week ending August 21, indicating institutional funds are returning to ETH. (Reuters)
The problem is: after positive factors push prices up, the market ultimately has to face the chip structure.
ETH quickly rose from around $1900 to near $2500, with almost no sufficient turnover in between. The faster the rise, the more short-term floating profits accumulate below. Therefore, $2500 is not only a psychological integer barrier but also an important level to test whether this rally is a "trend reversal" or a liquidity-driven rapid recovery.
Next, I am more focused on two signals:
First, whether the price can hold near $2400 after a pullback. If the high-level consolidation digests profit-taking but the price remains above the breakout zone, this would be a healthy and strong consolidation.
Second, whether $2500 can truly convert from a "resistance level" into a "support level." Only if it breaks through and holds steady can the market have conditions to further open up upside space. Conversely, if repeated attempts to break $2500 fail and the price falls back into the previous breakout range, then caution is needed as this rapid rise may be entering a realization phase.
So now I won’t immediately call a new bull market just because ETH reached $2500, nor will I turn bearish just because of high-level fluctuations.
What’s truly worth trading is not the number "2500" itself, but the answer the market gives around $2500.
The rise proves funds have returned; the pullback will prove whether these funds are willing to stay.
What do you think? Is this ETH rally the start of a trend reversal or a strong liquidity-driven rebound?BTC Strength Does Not Mean Altcoins Are Ready
$BTC touched $79.5K and $ETH broke above $2.5K, yet $H, $LAB, $KAITO, $BEAT, and $SNDK remain weak. This reflects capital rotation, not a lack of momentum. Liquidity remains concentrated in large-cap assets, while altcoins face new supply, thin liquidity, and insufficient spot demand. $KAITO also faces supply pressure following a major unlock. The message is clear: the market is selective, and broad Altseason still needs confirmation. The Bloomberg All Metals Total Return Subindex (BCOMAMT) and the S&P 500 (SPX) have just recorded their highest 100-day correlation ever, with beta also on the rise. This unusual coupling may be a key signal for where commodities head next. 📉 My chart overlaying BCOMAMT and SPX on the same scale highlights what I call the "same-chart syndrome"—the metals index is now retreating from a valuation premium similar to the one seen at the 2022 highs. For context, in the first half of 2022, the correlLast week's market was very strong, with Bitcoin rallying from 63,000 along the Belt and Road to a high of 79,600, an increase of over 20% in one week, making it the strongest week in recent months. On the 23rd, there was a slight pullback, but the price still firmly held above 75,000.
There are four key points behind this surge:
First, after the price broke through the range, a large number of short leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated, and the forced buying further pushed the market higher;
Second, adjustments related to U.S. Treasury bonds, with U.S. bond yields falling, created a favorable macro environment for risk assets;
Third, a significant inflow of spot ETF funds, with institutional capital re-entering the market;
Fourth, news related to crypto regulation emerged, making market sentiment optimistic.