Orbit Post Sitemap
Samsung is wildly distributing 80 billion, why is the stock price being crushed?
Today the South Korean stock market is unusually lively, KOSPI plunged, Samsung Electronics once sharply dropped, but SK Hynix remained relatively firm
Clearly Samsung just released the largest shareholder return in history, so why is the capital not buying in?
The core contradiction is that there is plenty of money, but not enough certainty
🚩Samsung Electronics $SAMSUNG
Although a huge return plan was launched, the exact amount of funds that can actually be used for buybacks and cancellations remains to be determined
🚩SK Hynix $SKHY
Directly announced a 4 trillion KRW buyback and cancellation of treasury stock, and promised a return exceeding 50% of FCF over the next three years, with an extremely clear fulfillment path
💰Capital choice
Samsung = phones + foundry + storage + AI
SK Hynix = purely an AI memory flexible play
The market currently prefers targets with high AI purity and thorough stock cancellation in the short term
✍️
Fundamentally, Samsung's HBM4 has entered mass production with a clear catching-up momentum, this looks more like a repricing of capital style
💡Key focus going forward
The real implementation strength of Samsung's subsequent buybacks and cancellations
The sustained support of SK Hynix's 4 trillion KRW buyback on the stock price
If the AI memory boom continues, with profit growth, massive cash inflows, and the HBM4 catching-up logic all realized simultaneously, Samsung might actually create interesting opportunities by being sold off
The core divergence in South Korean semiconductors now is not whether AI has a market, but whether the money earned should continue to be invested in capacity expansion or be fully returned to shareholders?
#三星股东回报落地，最高约800亿美元 $SNDK ended its previous sharp attack toward 1827 USD and is now narrowly hovering along the neckline edge near 1541 USD after a continuous pullback of over 15%.
The price quickly dropped nearly three hundred dollars from the high point within a week, and the downward pressure is fully testing the dense trading platform between 1540 and 1570 USD.
The NAND price increase in Q3 sharply dropped from over 70% in the previous quarter to about 20%, and the expected terminal order cuts accelerated the high-level profit-taking of previous gains.
The market has detached from the one-way drive of historical performance and is now dominated by the slowdown in price increase slope and high-level escape selling pressure, jointly leading the short-term structural rebalancing.
If bulls stabilize in the current area and recover the 1654 USD resistance with volume, the upward channel will regain support, and the market is expected to retest the 1725 to 1828 USD range.
If the 1542 USD support is confirmed broken and cannot be quickly recovered, a structural breakdown will open a downward correction space toward 1500 USD and even 1380 USD.
Before the price effectively stands above the key turning point of 1600 USD, any small-scale rallies still belong to resistance within the downward channel.
The most critical variable in the coming week is whether a volume-supported stop-fall signal can appear at the 1540 USD level.
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡$UNITREE Why can the market give $$TSLA a high P/E ratio of over 300 times but not $UNITREE? Setting aside the progress in robotics technology of both companies, Tesla, although having a high P/E ratio, has a price-to-book ratio of only about 16 times, indicating it has a large amount of net assets supporting its stock price, whereas $UNITREE has both high price-to-book and P/E ratios; secondly, Tesla has mature electric vehicle products as revenue support, along with an energy business that can serve as the infrastructure for future robotics AI new business, which $UNITREE lacks. Musk's involvement in digital currency, commercial aerospace, and social software can create an ecological advantage for the robotics business (knowledge payment - model token payment, data resources, aerospace scenarios for robot applications and aerospace technology feedback, and natural overlap between automotive autonomous driving and robotics technology, such as SLAM). Moreover, Tesla and $UNITREE's R&D investments are not even on the same scale, and robotics requires continuous iterative investment. Tesla has mature product market revenue as a funding source, while the latter can only rely on scam-like fundraising or government subsidies. Comparing the two, the market definitely votes with its feet on $UNITREE's valuation! Biden tries to rescue the bond market, saving gold and $BTC
The U.S. Treasury stepped in, but the market was not convinced.
Last week, Treasury Secretary Biden doubled the scale of 10- to 30-year Treasury buybacks to at least $4 billion each time, attempting to put the brakes on long-term yields. The 30-year yield did plunge more than 9 basis points in a single day, but this "effect" lasted less than a day before quickly rebounding. Meanwhile, the dollar index fell below 99, gold broke through $4600, and Bitcoin surged over 25% in a single week.
Biden wanted to save the bond market, but the market funneled money into gold and Bitcoin instead.
Why didn't it stick?
First, the scale is vastly different. U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the buyback increment accounts for less than 0.05%. As the head of fixed income at DWS said: "It's like throwing a paper towel into a tsunami."
Second, the tool is mismatched. Buybacks are essentially "borrowing short to buy long," with no reduction in total debt. The Treasury cannot create funds out of thin air and cannot truly change long-term supply and demand.
Third, policy conflict. The Treasury wants to suppress interest rates, while the Federal Reserve aims to curb inflation; these two forces cancel each other out.
Fourth, credit overextension. The Treasury Secretary personally stepping in is equivalent to admitting anxiety to the market. This buyback came only two weeks after the last quarterly refinancing report, breaking the Treasury's "regular and predictable" principle upheld since the 1970s. Jefferies' chief economist warned that investors may demand higher risk premiums when holding Treasuries in the future.
Biden wanted to put a band-aid on the bond market, but the market sees a structural wound. The surge in gold and Bitcoin is not a flight to safety but a vote on the dollar's credit. The real test will be Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole this Friday.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $ETH $TRUMP BTC and ETH: In the era of stock competition, capital is voting with its feet to choose direction
After the recent rebound and surge, the crypto market has fallen into a high-level oscillation stalemate. BTC has been tugging repeatedly between $75,000 and $79,000, while ETH fluctuates widely around $2380-$2580. The market is generally waiting for the Jackson Hole meeting to provide direction, but it overlooks a core fact: this is not a full-scale incremental bull market, but a typical stock competition scenario. Limited capital is making clear choices between the two leading coins, with funds of different attributes diverging, creating seemingly synchronous but actually differentiated market trends. Understanding the logic behind the stock capital's choices allows one to grasp the likely direction of subsequent market movements.
First, look at BTC, which is the preferred choice for "allocation-type capital" among stock funds, following a steady recovery path. In the past month, the US spot BTC ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of over $3.7 billion, with top institutional products contributing more than 70% of the increment. The core logic for this type of capital entering the market is the clarity of regulatory compliance combined with rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, positioning BTC as an alternative hedge asset in large-scale asset allocation, seeking mid-to-long-term valuation recovery gains rather than short-term speculative arbitrage. This is reflected in the market as typical low volatility and strong support characteristics: intraday pullbacks are generally controlled within 3%, and every dip is supported by buying, with rare extreme price swings.
However, due to the conservative nature of the capital, BTC's upward explosive power is relatively limited. When the price approaches the $80,000 integer mark, the trapped positions formed between $78,000 and $82,000 by the end of 2025 are released in concentration, creating strong resistance; meanwhile, early stock whales sell off at highs, further suppressing the pace of the rally. Without large-scale incremental capital entering, it is difficult for stock allocation funds alone to quickly break through strong resistance zones, and it is more likely to gradually digest selling pressure through oscillating upward movement. Technically, $75,000 is the core cost line for institutional positions in this round and also the dividing line between strength and weakness; holding above it maintains a mid-term bullish pattern.
Next, look at ETH, which is the main battlefield for "speculative capital" among stock funds, following a flexible market path. Compared to BTC's institution-led structure, ETH's capital composition is more diverse: at the base are long-term fundamental funds locked in staking, with total network staking exceeding 42.6 million coins, accounting for 35.3%, supporting the price floor from the supply side; on top are large amounts of short-term speculative funds, derivatives leverage funds, and retail follow-up funds, which pursue short-term excess returns, driven by speculative narratives and sentiment inflection points, pushing prices to rise and fall rapidly.
This creates ETH's characteristics of high elasticity and high volatility: during rebounds, gains outperform BTC, and during corrections, losses are also greater. On the capital side, the past month has seen a cumulative net inflow of about $1.1 billion in spot ETH ETFs, only about 30% of BTC's, and highly concentrated in a single top institutional product, indicating much lower participation of institutional allocation funds compared to BTC. Supporting short-term large fluctuations are more the sentiment funds brought by the warming AI+Crypto narrative and the leverage amplification effect in the derivatives market. This kind of market pulse is strong but short-lived; once narrative heat fades or macro expectations shift, profit-taking tends to trigger rapid corrections. Technically, $2380-$2420 is a short-term sentiment support zone; once effectively broken, the adjustment space will open up.
Overall, the core feature of stock competition is capital stratification and market differentiation. BTC earns money from valuation recovery, steady and solid, suitable for mid-to-long-term funds with lower risk tolerance; ETH earns money from sentiment speculation, highly elastic, suitable for short-term funds with higher risk tolerance. Neither is absolutely better or worse; it depends on whether it matches your trading cycle and risk preference. Whether the subsequent market can shift from stock to incremental depends on the Federal Reserve policy signals after the Jackson Hole meeting and whether ETF funds can continue to flow in and spread across the industry.
In terms of operation, the two require different strategies: BTC is suitable for a mid-term allocation approach, holding the base position, buying in batches at the support zone on pullbacks, not blindly chasing highs nor shorting lightly; ETH is suitable for swing trading, taking profits in batches at resistance zones on rallies, waiting for pullbacks to stabilize before considering low entry opportunities, strictly controlling position size and leverage to avoid catching tops in sentiment peaks. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level This time, don't translate “财政部回购美债” as "the US started flooding the market" again.
It's more like a traffic jam in the bond market, with the Treasury sending out a few more tow trucks: transactions go smoothly, old bonds sell better, but the number of cars on the road hasn't decreased.
The US continues to issue new bonds afterward; deficits, supply, and inflation can't be suppressed every time by a $4 billion buyback.
Kashkari said US Treasuries haven't malfunctioned, with a very clear subtext: as long as trading can run normally, no matter how ugly long-term yields look, the Fed won't step in specifically to rescue, and policy still focuses on inflation.
This is a breather for $BTC and $ETH, not a get-out-of-jail-free card.
Yields falling eases valuation pressure a bit, so BTC can still hold around 77,000, and ETH hovers near 2440; but if auction demand weakens or inflation heats up, long-term rates will rise again, and these two highly elastic assets will take the hit first.
On the other hand, $XAU is more interesting. Gold topping above 4640 indicates that funds are enjoying the yield decline on one hand, but on the other, they don't really believe the US fiscal issues are truly resolved.
The more the bond market needs "maintenance," the easier it is for gold's monetary credit story to find buyers.
What we really need to watch next isn't how much prices rise on buyback day, but whether new bond auctions find buyers and if overseas demand is willing to return.
So I don't treat buybacks as QE, only as a painkiller.
In the short term, watch if yields can stabilize; in the long term, watch if deficits and bond issuance converge.
Painkillers can make the market comfortable for a few days but can't cure the root problem.
#卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ $TRUMP TRUMP 2.5 — down 4%, team dumping weighs on price.
Rallied to 3.60 on fake new-token rumors, now fading back to 2.50.
The real pressure: team-linked wallets moved 3.837M tokens (~$9.33M) to OKX yesterday, then sold 1.1M at $2.68 avg this morning for 2.94M USDC. Over $10M in total selling hitting the market.
Eric Trump already called the new token rumors "completely untrue" and warned of scams.
Key levels: support 2.45 / 2.22, resistance 2.52–2.54.Trump is the world's number one scammer. Yesterday, the Trump team transferred 3,837,000 TRUMP tokens (worth $9.33 million) to OKX. Since early this morning, the TRUMP token team address has sold 1,100,000 $TRUMP by adding unilateral liquidity, exchanging it for 2.94 million USDC.
Their team first stirred up attention among the community by spreading fake news that Trump was about to issue new tokens. Damn, once Trump pumped the price up, they started dumping. The president of a country is really shameless to this extent.
Do not touch coins like $TRUMP and $WLFI; they are all products of the Trump family. In the future, brothers, avoid anything related to the Trump family!#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
The recent geopolitical game between the US and Iran has heated up again. The US has implemented the strictest sanctions against Iran in history, blocking Iran's oil maritime exports, directly impacting global energy supply. Energy-driven inflation expectations have risen again, with far-reaching effects on the macroeconomic landscape.
This round of sanctions is unprecedented in intensity, causing a cliff-like drop in Iran's crude oil exports. The current daily loading volume is only one-seventh of the pre-war level. Coupled with increased shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and tight global crude oil inventories and refining capacity, oil prices have continued to strengthen in the short term, creating rigid inflationary pressure.
The core market logic has changed: previously, the market was betting on cooling inflation and easing expectations, but now geopolitical disturbances have brought a risk of a second rebound in energy inflation. Energy is the cost source for the entire industrial chain; rising oil prices will suppress the global pace of interest rate cuts. US Treasury yields are easier to rise than fall, directly tightening overall market liquidity.
Personal view: This is one of the most critical macro variables recently. The return of energy inflation is unfavorable for a unilateral surge in risk assets. BTC and ETH will enter a hedged oscillation pattern with both bullish and bearish factors.
Bullish side: Geopolitical risk aversion supports the market floor, limiting downside space;
Bearish side: Inflation stickiness strengthens, delaying the Federal Reserve's easing cycle and suppressing the height of the bulls.
Practical approach: At this stage, abandon the logic of chasing unilateral gains and adopt an overall cautious oscillation view. Short-term volatility will be amplified; avoid heavy positions chasing highs. Prefer low-leverage range operations in contracts, focusing on waiting for inflation data and oil price trends to confirm direction.
Key follow-ups: Oil price sustainability, US inflation data, and whether the US-Iran situation further intensifies."Ceffu Withdraws 120 Million USDC in a Single Day, Ethena's Market Making Strategy and Yield Shift"
Custody giant Ceffu withdrew 120 million USD from Ethena in one day.
The largest single transaction hit 30 million directly, sparking rumors of a potential run on the market.
But looking deeper reveals the truth: the network-wide funding rate has been suppressed to 5%.
Previously, earning funding fees yielded an easy 18% annualized profit, but now it no longer covers costs.
Major market makers decisively redeemed and took profits, converting real money back into cold wallets for risk avoidance.
Even injecting a 1 billion credit patch can't stop the on-chain spot pools from being continuously drained. $BTC ETH breakout? But Er Gou advises you not to rush in! The big environment is brewing a major move!
Brothers, ETH has something going on today!
The daily candle closed above the 2400 resistance level, directly breaking the previous bearish structure of "lower highs and lower lows." While BTC is still hovering around 77000, ETH has already taken the lead in breaking out on the daily chart.
But don’t get excited yet, the external environment is preparing a big move.
First, the US and Iran are getting serious. Basent officially announced today the "strictest sanctions in history" against Iran, and Iran responded bluntly: if you dare to wage economic war, not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz! Last week, Brent crude oil rose 5.7%, and if this really escalates, oil prices will surge further.
Second, US Treasury bonds are warning. The 10-year Treasury yield soared to 4.73%, and the 30-year is nearing its highest level since 2007. Kashkari tried to downplay it saying "the market is normal," but funds are already flowing into gold and BTC.
Third, Nvidia AI servers are reported to have price increases over 15%. Storage chip costs are soaring, AI hardware prices are rising across the board, and inflation pressure hasn’t eased yet.
Er Gou’s bold take: ETH has broken out on the daily chart, but the macro environment is full of landmines—oil prices, US bonds, inflation, any one of these could drag the market down. Structural reversal ≠ a one-way rally; expect intense shakeouts at any time.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升 Everyone is waiting for Wash this week.
On August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole. Wall Street calls it "Wash's most critical window to reshape the Fed's credibility."
Everyone is guessing: hawkish or dovish? Will there be a rate hike in September?
But I have an immature opinion——
What he says isn't actually that important.
Why?
Because the market has already told you with real actions:
Last week, Basset intervened to save the bond market—expanding long-term bond repos, trying to suppress U.S. Treasury yields.
And the result?
The dollar dropped nearly 1% that week, gold broke through $4600, and Bitcoin rose over 25% in a single week.
The Treasury Secretary personally intervened, but it was in vain. Instead, it triggered a "currency depreciation trade" for gold and Bitcoin.
Charlie McElligott from Nomura Securities directly pointed out: the strong rise in gold and Bitcoin reflects the market turning anxiety into a chase for currency depreciation and safe-haven assets.
This is the market's vote—it no longer trusts the Federal Reserve.
Three signals prove the Fed is "losing power":
Signal 1: Three dissenting votes at the July meeting—the sharpest internal split in nearly 10 years
On July 30, the Fed held rates steady at 9 to 3.
Cleveland Fed President Harker, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Logan all voted against, demanding a 25 basis point hike.
This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed had three dissenting votes in the same decision.
The June meeting was unanimous; just over a month later, it went from "unity" to "division."
What credibility does a central bank have if it can't even convince its own people?
Signal 2: No clear guidance after the meeting—not even pretending anymore
Since taking office in May, Wash has adhered to a "quieter Fed"—deliberately avoiding forward guidance, shortening policy statements, and being vague in press conferences.
The market interprets this as "insufficient determination to fight inflation."
Wash clearly stated that the Jackson Hole speech might focus on "macro framework reflection" rather than short-term rate guidance, implying "more likely to reshape policy narrative than to signal rate cuts."
What does that mean?
"I'm not going to tell you what I'm going to do; you guess yourself."
Signal 3: Top capital is voting with its feet
A June survey by Invesco shows that global sovereign funds managing about $29 trillion are shifting allocations away from U.S. Treasuries toward energy and physical assets.
Sixty percent of central banks explicitly state—the scale of U.S. debt is unsustainable, and the dollar's reserve status is being eroded.
Bridgewater founder Dalio directly said last Friday: investors should reduce bond holdings, allocate 10% to 15% to gold, and buy a "small amount" of Bitcoin.
The founder of the world's largest hedge fund says—don't trust U.S. debt, buy Bitcoin.
BTC is completing an "identity switch"
It is no longer just a "Fed-sensitive index."
Data from K33 Research shows: Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq is bottoming out, and Bitcoin's sensitivity to FOMC rate decisions is significantly below historical cycle levels.
Bitcoin's correlation with the global easing index changed from +0.21 before ETF approval to -0.778—this is not a gradual change but a structural reversal.
It is transforming from a "risk asset" into a "dollar credit hedge tool."
VanEck also said: fiscal-led concerns and structurally weakening dollar are providing institutional narrative support for Bitcoin as a hedging tool.
So, does it really matter if Wash is hawkish or dovish?
Hawkish? Continue raising rates—the economy can't bear it, and dollar credit continues to crack.
Dovish? Shift to easing—inflation keeps burning, and dollar purchasing power keeps falling.
Both paths point to the same direction: dollar credit is depreciating.
What Wash says only affects short-term volatility.
The trend of de-dollarization determines long-term pricing.
$BTC $XAU $CL #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
The boss has something to say
US-Iran sanctions have escalated again.
The US is preparing to announce a new round of sanctions on Iran, potentially extending to Iran's major trading partners. Iran's response is even tougher, equating support for sanctions to an "act of war," and threatening to restrict Gulf oil transport routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Although Iran allows some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the strait, these are individual authorizations and do not represent a full resumption of navigation. Brent and WTI rose 6.4% and 5.7% respectively last week, and diesel supply tensions are also intensifying.
This directly impacts macro expectations. Rising energy prices will push up inflation expectations; if inflation doesn't come down, the Federal Reserve won't ease up, long-term bond yields won't fall, and the ceiling for risk assets remains. This signals the same direction as the PMI hitting a four-year high—strong economy plus rising energy prices means the logic for rate hikes is accumulating again. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
On the market, Bitcoin dropped from 77,000 to fluctuate around 75,000. After all long positions are closed, wait for a pullback; stabilize between 73,000 and 74,000 before re-entering. Geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations are rising, so the cost-effectiveness of chasing longs in the short term is indeed low.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop-loss orders. Good luck.$SPCX fell from $136 to $133 in pre-market trading. The core issue lies in the risk appetite contraction triggered by the plunge in AI and semiconductor sectors, combined with the position battle involving 207.8 million shares short and a 20% unlocking wave.
After the pre-market price tested $136, it quickly retreated to $133, continuing the pattern of giving back gains after a pre-market spike. The $133 level serves as a short-term dense trading range, and whether this level holds or breaks directly determines if the short-term technical support fails.
The primary driver currently pricing the stock is the systemic risk appetite decline caused by the semiconductor and AI sector plunge; the second driver is the compression of valuation premiums due to intensified peer competition; the third driver is the upcoming release of the 20% unlocking portion following the Q2 earnings report.
The 207.8 million shares short position alters the continuity judgment of the downward price space. The extremely crowded short position means that positive news can easily trigger a short squeeze and covering. Meanwhile, the 20% unlocking portion changes the mid-term supply-demand balance judgment, establishing liquidity pressure on the supply side.
The trigger condition for the bullish breakout scenario is an unexpectedly positive progress in the Starship launch and a halt in the AI sector's decline. At this time, watch for a volume-backed breakout above the $136 pre-market high. If the price rebounds without volume and is blocked again at $134, this scenario is invalidated.
The trigger condition for the bearish scenario is Q2 earnings underperforming expectations combined with the 20% unlocking wave pressuring the market. Watch for a valid break below the $133 support level with increased volume. If the price recovers above $134 and triggers a covering wave, this scenario is invalidated.
In the next 24 hours to 7 days, focus on the turnover characteristics at the $133 support level, the covering rhythm of the 207.8 million shares short position, and the changes in order book depth as the 20% unlocking period approaches.
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径Brothers, I just saw a set of data, quite interesting.
According to River statistics, there are currently 49.6 million adults in the US holding Bitcoin, accounting for 18.6% of the adult population. Those holding gold number 28.8 million, accounting for 10.8%. Bitcoin holders exceed gold holders by 21 million.
The key point is that this growth rate is really fierce. At the beginning of 2026, it was only 14.3%, and it has increased by more than 4 percentage points in half a year. A 16-year-old asset with a penetration growth rate crushing that of 5,000-year-old gold—this data is honestly a bit outrageous.
Another point: Americans hold about 42% of the globally circulating Bitcoin. US-listed companies hold about 1.24 million BTC, accounting for 92.7% of the total corporate Bitcoin holdings worldwide. The US government itself holds 328,372 BTC, worth over 23 billion USD. Globally, 37.5% of the mining power is also in the US.
Behind the data, there is actually one thing—Bitcoin is no longer just a toy for the geek circle. With ETFs paving the way, regulatory frameworks gradually becoming clear, and Americans being accustomed to managing their own money and investments, this penetration rate continues to rise.
For the market, the potential buying pool is expanding. 49.6 million means 1 in every 5 adults has touched BTC. Of course, many may have just bought 0.001 BTC to try it out, but once the base is formed, combined with ETF channels, institutional funds will push it up along this slope.BTC hovers in the $77,000 range, altcoins remain in a 'selective rebound' zone. What the market is really waiting for isn't BTC's next level, but rather confirmation of the path for funds leaving BTC and ETH heading toward altcoins. The facts confirmed in the original text are as follows. BTC is trading between $77,000 and $78,500, while ETH is testing the $2,400 to $2,500 range. ETH has steady demand through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On the other hand, altcoins such as BEAT, BICO, KAITO, LAB, and SNDK have yet to show trading volumes that would guarantee a recovery. From a valuation perspective, the current price already largely reflects BTC's range holding and ETH's ETF-based downward support. On the other hand, there are two variables that have yet to be reflected. One is whether the 'rotation' of funds withdrawing from BTC and ETH moves to altcoins, and the other is whether that rotation is actually#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
This Jackson Hole, I think the market might be disappointed again — everyone wants to hear a "future interest rate roadmap" from Wash, but he most likely won't provide one.
Recently, the market has been oscillating between cooling employment and sticky inflation. When data is weak, it trades easing; when inflation expectations rise, it immediately trades higher rates for longer. What’s really missing isn’t a new set of data, but the logic behind the Fed’s decisions since Wash took office.
So this time, I’m not too concerned about how many "hawkish" or "dovish" words he uses.
I want to hear three questions: how he views the current inflation level, how much further employment weakness he can tolerate, and under what conditions rates would change.
Especially now that $BTC has just experienced a rapid rally, market risk appetite has clearly returned. At this point, betting on whether he’s hawkish or dovish seems less meaningful.
I used to think CPI, FOMC, and Jackson Hole events were must-catch moments, but later realized the market often trades expectations before the speech, experiences volatility during it, and only starts trading the real logic afterward.
So this time, I’m prepared to be a spectator. Patience is also part of macro trading.$BTC Bitcoin once approached $80,000.
It wasn't because an ETF was approved. It wasn't because the Federal Reserve loosened monetary policy.
It was because Washington surrendered.
From August 18 to August 20, within 72 hours — SEC proposals, CFTC taking action, the White House stepping up. The three-stage rocket of U.S. crypto policy ignited simultaneously.
This is not an ordinary positive news event. This is a watershed moment for U.S. crypto policy.
The enforcement era is over. The era of system building has begun. ETH’s stronger 24-hour gain while BTC holds near $77.5K looks more like selective rotation than a broad risk-on breakout. A test of $2,500 matters, but confirmation requires ETH to keep outperforming without BTC losing its footing.
Macro conditions still argue for restraint. Treasury buyback signals may support liquidity at the margin, while renewed Iran oil risk could revive inflation pressure. For now, I would treat crypto strength as constructive but tactical, not a clean regime shift.
Just my read, not advice.Bitcoin surged 25% in a single week, instantly splitting the community into two camps.
One camp claims the halving cycle is dead: ETF funds, corporate treasuries, and sovereign buyers have taken over the halving narrative. CZ and others have also mentioned a super cycle, believing that after the first wave of the rally, only shallow pullbacks will occur, rendering the old script obsolete.
The other camp sneers: this surge is driven by retail chasing the rally, while shorts have surrendered. Almost no one is bearish in the market. According to the principle that the contrary moves the way, if a major macro negative event hits in October, leveraged longs will be liquidated, the panic index will crash to extreme levels, marking the final washout. The old four-year cycle might actually close around October.
Two different judgments, but the same operational approach: never use contracts, only spot dollar-cost averaging. Those who believe in the super cycle should start buying evenly over 4 months now, holding for 2–3 years to wait for the top.
Those who believe in the old cycle should save their firepower to double down after October 4. If a terrifying waterfall comes, it’s like free money; if the market holds and grinds up, don’t move your original position. Don’t aim for a crazy double in the next cycle; steadily earning a 3x recovery is enough to adjust your position.
Whether the bull market has arrived or not is not important. What matters is that you are not liquidated by leverage during the cycle switch and that you are still on board. Dollar-cost averaging spot, controlling your impulses, and saving bullets for October is more reliable than betting on whether the cycle lives or dies.
$TRUMP $ETH $BTC
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 The trade talks between the US and Canada completely broke down at the final stage, and the cooperation agreement that was originally expected to be implemented was declared void. Starting in the early hours of August 22 Eastern Time, the United States officially imposed a high 50% tariff on Canadian imports worth $20 billion, covering a wide range of products including alcoholic beverages, furniture, textiles, and electronic devices. Canadian Prime Minister Carney quickly responded firmly, directly halting all subsequent trade negotiations and introducing reciprocal countermeasures, planning to impose tariffs on US goods of the same scale starting September 8, covering categories such as steel, dairy products, agricultural machinery, and electronic devices. The incident has five core impacts: 1. U.S. inflationary pressures rise again: Canadian import costs have risen sharply, and manufacturers are likely to pass on tariff costs to end consumers, further pushing up domestic prices and exacerbating inflation risks. 2. Canada's export industry under pressure Canada's economy is highly dependent on the U.S. export market, and high tariffs will directly impact domestic manufacturing and export companies, significantly damaging revenue and order volume. 3. Risks in the North American automotive supply chain intensify. Steel, aluminum, complete vehicles, and parts have long been core conflicts in negotiations. If tariff conflicts continue to escalate, the entire North American automotive industry chain will face dual pressure on cost and delivery. 4. Global risk assets under pressure: Rising trade confrontations will suppress market risk appetite, and US stock volatility may increase; Funds will naturally flow into safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold. 5. Soaring uncertainty in the North American free trade system: This conflict has significantly disrupted the stability of the USMCA framework, and continued tightening of restrictions may be possibleThe ultimate rotation rule in the crypto circle: ETH sets the temperature, DOGE sets the frenzy
Looking back at the two super bull markets in 2017 and 2021, the capital rotation rhythm in the crypto market was almost completely replicated, never deviating.
The first phase of the bull market is always Bitcoin monopolizing liquidity.
The market's base holdings are solidified, the market emerges from the despair of the bear market, and capital prioritizes the safest, deepest, and most stable BTC to complete the valuation repair of the entire market.
In the second phase of the bull market, Ethereum takes the baton and becomes the true signal for the altcoin season to start.
After BTC stabilizes the overall trend, incremental risk capital begins to seek premium space. As the leading public chain and the mother of altcoins, ETH is the barometer of the entire small-cap coin market.
As long as ETH starts to continuously warm up, oscillate upward, and strengthen its trend, it means: market risk appetite is fully opened, and the altcoin season is officially unlocked.
The final and most violent phase of the bull market is always the acceleration of sentiment coins like DOGE.
History is always consistent:
When ETH continues to rise, the main force's chip profits are full, gains blunt, and upward space compresses.
A large amount of profit capital overflowing from mainstream coins is no longer satisfied with steady gains and begins to frantically chase high elasticity, pure sentiment, and fundamentally unbound targets.
And DOGE is the best liquidity relief valve in the entire market. $BTC $ETH $DOGE [Stablecoins are evolving from trading tools into real everyday currency]
In July, crypto payment card spending reached approximately $1.04B, more than tripling year-over-year, with $USDC and $USDT accounting for over 70%. Visa currently has more than 160 stablecoin card projects launched or in development.
What’s truly noteworthy is that consumers can directly spend on-chain assets while merchants still receive fiat currency, with no need to understand wallets, private keys, or blockchain. This effectively leverages Visa’s existing global network to integrate stablecoins directly into daily life.
For Circle ($CRCL), the increase in USDC use cases is indeed positive, but growth in card transactions may not directly translate into proportional revenue. The focus should next be on USDC’s circulation, market share, and how much revenue partners will take.
If USDC can be used worldwide directly, would you still consider it a "cryptocurrency" or the next form of the US dollar?[Data Update] Young chips / new capital recovery has lasted for 25 days. There are 5 days left until the 30-day key node after the historical bear market bottom. The plate surface is like a cup of cooled hot cocoa—calm on the surface, but full of unmixed, thick emotions underneath. BTC is grinding back and forth around 77,000, ETH is stuck above 2,400, and only a few scattered spikes appear on the counterfeit side; the rest are waiting for signals. 🫧 Have you noticed that recently everyone says "wait for a pullback before getting in," but their fingers are honestly placing orders? This hesitation itself is part of the market. Let's start with the sector strength line. The most obvious feature of this round is that money is only going toward top assets, and with very decisive action. BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion this week, the strongest week since October last year; ETH spot ETFs also saw net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling about 697 million. BlackRock's IBIT attracted 503 million in a single day—a scale not something retail investors can build—institutions are seriously allocating. But on the flip side, the liquidity on the counterfeit side is as thin as paper. Looking at SK HYNIX's contract data, the total liquidation amount in 24 hours was only $120,000, and the buyer's liquidation dropped from 8x to 3x. This kind of market cannot support any trend in any direction. It's not that no one watches, but that no one wants to build positions inside. Funds are fleeing low-liquidity targets, and this move itself is a signal—risk appetite hasn't truly opened up, but is just concentrated in a few 'safe' containers. BTC repeatedly tested below 80,000, Coin#BTC fluctuates after a surge, ETF funds continue to flow in
I believe this is the end of the short squeeze phase and a gear shift to spot funds taking over. The mid-term trend is still intact, but short-term you must not chase the highs; a pullback is a safer entry point.
Last week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a combined net inflow of $2.6 billion in a single week, marking the largest weekly inflow since October last year. This data is crucial: the rally previously driven by short squeeze is now genuinely supported by institutional long-term capital. Large funds continuously entering at this level indicate the mid-term bottom has been raised, making a deep drop unlikely.
However, market signals are clear: after surging to 79,500 and then retreating, prices have been consolidating around 77,000. The 80,000 psychological resistance with trapped positions and short-term accumulated long leverage need time to be digested. It's unrealistic to expect a direct rally upwards; most likely, the price will oscillate between 75,000 and 79,000 to shake out floating positions before choosing a direction.
I have held my base position without moving. For the positions I reduced at high levels earlier, I plan to gradually buy back near the 75,000 support on pullbacks. With ETFs continuously flowing in, there's no fear of missing out; chasing highs is actually the easiest way to get shaken out during volatility.
Are you holding your positions steady now, or waiting for a pullback to add more?
$BTC $ETH #美财政部扩大长债回购，30年美债高位回落
The 5.34% 19-year high is not the market pricing in "rate hikes," but the market saying "no one is buying U.S. government debt." The Treasury is forced to step in and take over; this is not a market rescue, it's self-rescue.
Since the Treasury urgently announced doubling the 10-30 year Treasury buyback scale from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. Effective from September 9 until November 4. Just the day before, the 30-year yield hit 5.34%, the highest since 2007. The 10-year yield also reached 4.74%. The total U.S. debt officially surpassed $40 trillion.
Once the news broke, the 30-year yield instantly dropped 9 basis points to 5.19%. The 10-year fell to 4.64%.
But the problem is—the effect only lasted one day. On August 20, the 30-year yield bounced back to 5.25%. The market is voting with its feet: a $4 billion buyback at once is just a drop in the bucket against $40 trillion in debt. Besent said it might continue to increase, but Goldman Sachs was very straightforward—"a temporary fix, not a fundamental solution."
This is not quantitative easing; it is a "quasi-reversal operation"—the Treasury personally buying long-term debt to suppress its own borrowing costs. For BTC, falling yields plus a weaker dollar are positive. But with $40 trillion in debt, a $4 billion buyback at once cannot provide the answer. $ETH 2500 Battle: Don't Rush to Call a Bull Run, First Secure 2400
Damn, $ETH really crushed the shorts this round. A nearly 30% surge in a week, peaking near 2500, now pulling back to 2400 and moving sideways. It looks like it can't push higher, but I think holding the high without crashing and digesting sideways is much healthier than another big bullish candle.
Many don't understand that the institutions buying $BTC and those buying $ETH are not the same group. The $BTC crowd treats it as digital reserve capital, valuing scarcity and hedging; they buy slowly when macro conditions stabilize, without researching on-chain gimmicks. $ETH follows a completely different logic: staking yields, Layer2, RWA — you have to understand these before betting big. So when macro conditions improve, money flows into $BTC first; only when risk appetite fully opens do funds willing to play "productive assets" flood into ETH.
This round isn't just pure sentiment. Although $1.1 billion in short liquidations helped push the price, last week spot ETF net inflows were close to $700 million, indicating real money is stepping in, not just shorts being forced to buy.
What matters most now isn't $ETH itself, but whether capital will spread into the ecosystem. AAVE up 12% in a day, UNI up 6% — these aren't just riding the hype: when ETH rises, the value of on-chain collateral and lending demand increase first, benefiting AAVE; the hotter the market and the faster the turnover, $UNI benefits from trading activity and fee expectations. If capital continues to spill over from ETH, AAVE acts like a high-elasticity offensive position, $UNI more like a DeFi thermometer. But catch-up plays also rise faster than ETH, so don't get too carried away.
Traders on X say it plainly: holding $ETH at 2400 is more important than chasing 2500. Sideways movement is needed for the next leg; if it can't hold, it's just the afterglow of a short squeeze.
My own judgment: the key isn't whether it breaks through now, but if 2500 can turn from resistance into support. A quick rebound near 2500 with higher lows means bulls haven't retreated; continued ETF net inflows show funds are accumulating during the shakeout; as long as BTC isn't weak, ETH still has a chance to test higher ranges after consolidation. Conversely, a volume-driven break below, sustained ETF outflows, and BTC weakening would end the party — don't get stubborn.
According to the crypto four-year cycle theory, I still believe the real big bull market hasn't awakened yet. But before it wakes, profit-taking needs to be cleaned out. Don't rush to guess the top; first watch how this week's consolidation closes.
This is my personal view and not investment advice, but I'll be watching these signals closely. Thông tin Iran siết chặt hoặc áp dụng các biện pháp kiểm soát/thu phí qua eo biển Hormuz (tuyến đường huyết mạch vận chuyển khoảng 1/5 lượng dầu mỏ và khí đốt toàn cầu) có tác động nhiều chiều đến $BTC và thị trường crypto chung. Việc này ảnh hưởng qua các kênh chính sau đây: 1. Tác động qua lạm phát và giá năng lượng (Vĩ mô) Áp lực lạm phát và chi phí đẩy: Khi eo biển Hormuz bị siết chặt, lưu lượng tàu chở dầu bị cản trở sẽ khiến giá dầu thô (Brent, WTI) có xu hướng biến động mạnh hoặc leo than$ETH rose more than 25% last week, returning above $2300, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate also broke the long-term downtrend. Its rebound logic is similar to Bitcoin's, but the capital structure is essentially different.
Short-term logic: stronger short squeeze, but overbought signals have appeared
Like Bitcoin, this Ethereum surge was also driven by a "short squeeze." Since August 19, Ethereum contract liquidations have exceeded $1.33 billion, with shorts accounting for as much as 88.4%. However, Ethereum's "spring" is tighter — it had previously underperformed Bitcoin but shows greater elasticity during rebounds.
Key risk: Currently, Ethereum's daily RSI is as high as 85.62, extremely overbought. Technical analysis shows $2440-$2510 as a strong resistance zone, with key support below at $2070-$2210. Trader Doctor Profit believes that the first time it stands above the weekly "golden line" is an important signal, but a sharp short-term shakeout could happen at any time.$BTC experienced a nearly 50% drop from its all-time high of $126,000 to $57,000, then violently surged over 20% within a few days, approaching $80,000. Behind this is a short-term rebound triggered jointly by a shift in macro expectations and extreme position liquidations.
Short-term logic: short squeeze dominance, sentiment-driven,
The core engine of this rebound is a "short squeeze." Before the rebound, the market had accumulated an enormous amount of leveraged short positions. The U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchase operations, combined with the Trump administration releasing favorable crypto regulatory signals, directly igniting the fuse. Over $1.3 billion in short positions were liquidated in just a few days, creating a positive feedback loop of "forced liquidation - price surge." But it should be noted: this is a technical short squeeze, not a demand-driven trend reversal. The price has already shown a pullback, and a mysterious large whale sold $570 million worth of BTC above $77,000, indicating that $80,000 is a strong resistance zone. $ENA rose 48% in a single week, just breaking through the bottom neckline, with a pullback support at 0.14U.
The $1 billion warehouse financing credit tool announced on 8/19 (led by Ethena as lender / Cayman SPV / $USDe underlying asset support / FalconX responsible for initiation and management) continues to ferment, with $ENA up 48% weekly (the largest weekly gain among 20 tokens).
Interpretation: The revenue source of $USDe has diversified for the first time from pure perpetual basis to loan ledger — this is a risk type substitution rather than risk elimination; current protocol yield is 4.80% / $sUSDe staking yield is 4.00% (average 10.66% since launch), with a total $USDe supply of $4.11 billion.
⚠️ Not investment advice | Personal observation record | Crypto is highly volatile | Invest at your own risk Today, Chinese tech stocks plummeted, and $SPCX seems to be affected as well, opening around 136 and now about 133. The US stock market is expected to open with a similar trend today.
Right now, the hype around AI is too intense. When asked about AI and whether to buy, everyone is hesitant.
If SPCX was simply focused on space technology, it would be fine, but it wants to do everything, which makes its scope too broad.
Industry volatility has a big impact: China launched Zhuque-3, competing with SPCX, causing SPCX to drop; the AI sector's semiconductor stocks plunged, SPCX fell further; Tesla dropped, and SPCX continued to decline.
If this situation continues, SPCX's Q2 earnings report will probably look very bad. Plus, with the 20% unlocking after the earnings report, what can you do in this short-term round? #SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 $BTC $ETH #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 As of August 24, 2026, 12:05, BTC is quoted at $77,697–77,729 (24h +0.83%~+0.86%, daily range 75,560–78,051), ETH is quoted at $2,463 (24h +1.67%, early session tested 2480 but was hammered back to 2435 then recovered to 2450+). After the weekend's "liquidity meat grinder" from 79,516 stabbing down to 75,800, the Asian session midday welded the price back to the 77k midpoint. This is not a bearish reversal but a short squeeze first wave (covering shorts) switching to the second wave (ETF + devaluation trading) turnover. 🌍 Latest international news (snapshot before 12:00) • US long-term bonds capped: 10Y at 4.74%, 30Y at 5.27%–5.28%, Besent long bond repo 4B per transaction with dividends flat, USD DXY slightly strong at 98.84, gold back to 4,676 but weekly broke 4,600 — BTC moves with "de-dollarization" and does not follow US stocks. • Jackson Hole countdown: 8/27 (Thursday) Wash debut, market pricing in 25bp rate hike in December; dovish → surge to 85k, neutral → grind at 78k, hawkish → retreat to 70.8k. This week also features 8/26 Nvidia earnings + PCE double stabbing. • Regulatory candy: SEC released proposed framework "Reg Crypto Assets" (fundraising 5M/75M dual exemptions), White House continues to push CLARIT $SNDK's recent performance has left many people baffled: earnings surged dramatically, yet the stock price nearly halved; however, once the investor day started, the stock price jumped nearly 14%. Behind this is actually a fundamental shift in market logic.
Short-term profit realization narrows upward momentum. According to the Q2 financial report, SanDisk's revenue soared 372%, and profits increased 135 times, but the stock price dropped more than 13% after the report. The core issue lies in the quality of growth: two-thirds of the growth came from NAND price increases, and only one-third from shipment volume growth. More critically, the price hike momentum is fading fast—the NAND price increase in Q3 dropped sharply from 70-75% in Q2 to about 20%. End products like PCs and smartphones can no longer bear the high prices and have started cutting orders. As a result, institutions like Jefferies have sharply lowered their target price from $3000 to $1750. 最近我越来越觉得，在加密市场里，防守其实比进攻更难。你辛辛苦苦靠挖矿或者交易赚来的钱，很可能在一夜之间就化为乌有。😔 这轮 $BTC 强势上涨的行情中，包括我自己在内，身边不少人都习惯了做空，结果就是亏掉几万美金，甚至有人损失超过一百万美金。而这些本金，都是无数个熬夜挖矿、守在链上熬出来的血汗钱，实在令人唏嘘。 在我看来，挖矿依然是风险最低的资产积累方式。用时间换 token，不需要投入太多资金，运气好的话还能博取一笔可观的收益。⛏️ 不过，挖矿的逻辑早就变了。那种随便做个交易就能领钱的时代已经过去。现在你需要适应并思考：未来的项目到底会奖励谁？如果看不清楚，就不要盲目冲进去。 以即将 TGE 的 TermMax 为例，虽然市场对它褒贬不一，但相比很多其他项目，它对散户还算友好。我并不是在给项目洗白，而是因为我比大家参与得早，一直鼓励群里的朋友去参与，赚取免费的 MP。因为不管你在 XP 和 AP 上怎么努力，都很难拼过那些头部巨鲸，他们用大资金刷积分，会把大家的收益稀释得很厉害。 实际结果也正如我所料，很多坚持参与 MP 的朋友都拿到了几万个 $TMX 空投（除了那些被“女巫”筛掉The market is not waiting for Wash's answer, but for confirmation that the Federal Reserve can no longer provide an answer.
Bitcoin surged over 25% in a week, surpassing $78,000.
The 30-year US Treasury yield was pushed to its highest point since 2007. Gold hit a three-month high.
Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver the most important speech since taking office this Friday at Jackson Hole.
But guess what? The market might not care at all about what he says.
Let's rewind to July 29.
The Fed announced for the fifth consecutive time that it would keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%.
Among the 12 voting members, 3 voted against, demanding a 25 basis point hike. This was the first time since 2016 that the Fed had three dissenting votes in a single decision.
Then what happened? Wash's performance at the press conference was hard to describe.
The statement was only about 115 words, shorter than June's 130 words, whereas previous meeting statements generally exceeded 300 words.
When asked if there would be a rate hike in September, he refused all predictions, only saying "judgment will be based on the latest data," without providing a timeline.
What was the result?
The US stock market crashed that day. The Dow plunged 1,153 points, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2025.
But interestingly—Bitcoin did not crash.
Not only did it not crash, it surged 25% a week later.
What does this indicate?
Five years ago, if the Fed had 3 dissenting votes to forcibly hold steady and the chair was ambiguous, the market would have already collapsed.
But this time, BTC held steady.
The market is not afraid of rate hikes. It just no longer treats the Fed's words as "decrees."
Since taking office in May, Wash has pursued a "speak less" strategy. He believes frequent Fed communication weakens monetary policy impact and causes the market to overly rely on central bank information.
The result? Nearly 60% of academic economists believe it is now harder for the Fed to bring inflation back to 2% than at the time of his nomination. Former Boston Fed President Rosengren bluntly said: "This communication strategy is eroding the Fed's credibility."
And Wash's last appearance after a rate decision already triggered a large-scale market sell-off.
The data is even more painful.
PCE inflation remains high at 3.7%, far exceeding the Fed's 2% target. US federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion. The fiscal deficit is close to $2 trillion.
Meanwhile, the AI boom is driving tech giants to aggressively issue bonds for financing. The Treasury wants to suppress long-term bond yields, and Bessent announced doubling the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks.
The effect?
It lasted less than a day. After a brief drop, the 30-year yield came under pressure again.
The Treasury can adjust supply but cannot eliminate demand for capital.
Capital is voting with its feet.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $1.92 billion over five trading days, marking the strongest week since October 2025.
Year-to-date in August, Bitcoin ETFs have net inflows of $2.07 billion, making it the strongest month this year.
The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold is at its highest level since the pandemic.
The market is sending a signal: the fiat currency system itself is the biggest risk asset.
So does what Wash says on Friday still matter?
TD Securities says if Wash continues to withhold information as usual, the market will be disappointed and may exacerbate long-term bond sell-offs.
HSBC says if he is willing to make judgments on inflation pressure, it might soothe the market.
But the problem is—Wash's entire management philosophy is "say nothing."
The market is fundamentally not waiting for hawkish or dovish signals. It is waiting for a set of judgment criteria that connect economic data and policy actions.
This set of criteria, Wash cannot provide. The Fed probably cannot provide it anymore.
This is Bitcoin's "Independence Day."
BTC's script has changed. It is no longer "Fed easing = rise, tightening = fall."
Because more and more people realize—when the largest central bank can't even clearly say what it is doing, why would you stake your wealth on its credit?
In recent years, BTC followed macro data and the Fed's words. But this round, no matter what Wash says, capital is running ahead.
Running to gold. Running to Bitcoin. Running to anything that doesn't require the Fed's "explanation."
The market is not waiting for Wash's answer, but for confirmation that the Fed can no longer provide an answer.
That moment is BTC's Independence Day.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Trade Log
$SPK short closed at 20x leverage, banking 125 points.
The setup was a classic volume-contraction pump. It looked like a whale move designed to lure buyers in, but the volume couldn’t sustain the push, so a pullback was the natural outcome.
And that’s exactly what happened. Entry was followed by a drop, and I closed at 0.02117 without getting greedy.
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #OKXOutcomeF1TI15Recap $OKB has some real good news today, but brothers, don't catch the peak.
On 8/24, OKX CEO Star announced the launch of a $1 billion X Layer ecosystem fund. Circle's USDC + CCTP also officially launched on X Layer, directly opening stablecoin liquidity channels. This is a rare independent catalyst among the 6 coins:
Once the news broke, OKB surged to $212, but the ATH created on 8/21 was $239.91. Afterwards, it retraced to around $110 and hovered there. Today it bounced again on the back of the good news. The cross-source price difference is huge (OKX converter shows ~110, news-driven surge to 212), indicating a massive divergence between bulls and bears. Messari is even more interesting: since the 2021 bull market peak, only 22 tokens have outperformed BTC, and OKB is the only one that has maintained a lead since the 2021 peak, with a solid foundation of 21 million hard cap (65.25 million burned) + ICE strategic investment (valued at $25 billion).
However, the retracement after the $239 high is not over yet. Today's wave is a news-driven pulse, not a trend restart. The key for the $1 billion fund is whether it can convert into real on-chain activity, not the money itself.
Compared to other coins, OKB is one of the few among the 6 coins that has its own story (deflation + ecosystem + compliance endorsement), but in the short term, it is pushed too high by the good news. Chasing now is just carrying the news hype.Recently, there has been a saying circulating in the market: the next Bitcoin cycle might be the strongest ever. The logic behind it is not complicated: the purchasing power of the US dollar is being diluted over the long term, and with AI improving production efficiency, capital will be more willing to pay for truly scarce, non-replicable assets; if BTC continues to strengthen against gold, the inflow of funds could even form a self-reinforcing cycle.
I do not oppose this direction. The real narrative of Bitcoin has long been more than just the four-year halving; it is increasingly being regarded by more capital as a global liquidity and monetary credit observation window. Especially as traditional assets become more crowded, BTC’s high volatility has instead become a feature that attracts risk capital.
However, using the dilution of the US dollar’s purchasing power to deduce a one-sided surge in BTC is still too linear. A weaker dollar does not mean all risk assets will rise; interest rates, dollar liquidity, ETF funds, regulatory expectations, and leverage crowding can all push prices back to their original state in the short term.
I prefer to focus on the BTC/gold ratio rather than just the BTC/USD price. If the ratio can still raise its lows after a pullback, it indicates that capital is willing to pay a higher premium for digital scarcity; if gold is strong but BTC continuously lags, the so-called super cycle is just a grand narrative. Long-term optimism is possible, but in trading, positions must still be respected—don’t throw away risk control just because of a claim of the strongest cycle $BTC #英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%
A 15% price increase in servers is not just a simple cost pass-through; it represents a reallocation of pricing power upstream in the AI industry chain. The real beneficiaries are not Nvidia but the storage manufacturers.
Reports say the new generation of AI servers will see price hikes exceeding 15%, mainly due to rising costs of core components like memory. Many people's first reaction is that this benefits Nvidia, but I think that's mistaken. Nvidia GPUs are already in short supply, and their ability to raise prices has always been there. The key variable this time is the soaring cost of HBM and DRAM, indicating that storage manufacturers' bargaining power is rapidly increasing.
The logic is clear: the bottleneck in AI computing power has shifted from GPUs to HBM and high-bandwidth memory. The three major storage manufacturers have all locked in HBM production capacity, with a supply gap exceeding 50%, and prices continue to rise. Server manufacturers are forced to raise prices, essentially passing storage cost pressures downstream, with profits shifting from system integrators to upstream core component suppliers.
I personally hold multiple positions in Hynix and SanDisk because I believe in this logic. The AI market has already priced in GPU expectations fully; the next phase of outperformance will come from storage's earnings elasticity and increased pricing power.
There may be short-term volatility driven by news, but the industry trend remains unchanged. Don't just focus on Nvidia; profits in the AI industry chain are being redistributed, and storage is the core beneficiary in the next phase.
Do you think the next breakout in this AI market will be storage?
$NVDA $SKHYNIX $SNDK #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？
Yushi Technology clearly exhibits a tech bubble. Driven by the hype around humanoid robots, the market has assigned the company an extremely high valuation, with an issuance P/E ratio far exceeding the industry average. After listing, sentiment further amplified this, largely overextending the commercial growth expectations for many years to come. The company's revenue structure has obvious weaknesses: the vast majority of orders come from university research procurement and commercial exhibitions. Industrial business that actually lands in factories and generates real production value accounts for a very small proportion. The products mostly serve as laboratory experimental equipment, with revenue highly dependent on research funding. Once related budgets tighten, orders will face direct pressure, and the foundation for long-term business growth is not solid. Financially, signs of revenue growth without profit growth have appeared. Despite continued revenue expansion, net profit excluding non-recurring items has started to decline, and subsequent R&D and sales investments will continue to increase profit pressure.
Meanwhile, industry competition is intensifying. Many manufacturers such as Tesla and Xiaomi are entering the humanoid robot track, which is very likely to trigger price competition in the future, squeezing the currently high gross margins. Although the company has strong capabilities in motion control hardware, it still has shortcomings in general embodied intelligence and dexterous manipulation. If the subsequent industrial application falls short of market expectations and the capital market's optimistic sentiment toward humanoid robots gradually fades, this bubble driven by thematic hype risks bursting, and valuations will return to a reasonable industry range. Beware of lending rate traps.
When the market is good, the lending rates on exchanges also rise accordingly. Previously, during a dull market, I pledged $BTC and $OKB to borrow a batch of USDT for wealth management and dual-currency operations, with a lending rate of 2.5% at that time.
However, with the recent market improvement, the lending rate for USDT has risen from 2.5% to a high of 5.9%.
In past bull markets, lending rates of 41% or higher have even been seen.
So if you, like me, borrow stablecoins through pledging for wealth management, remember to monitor the lending rates in real time to avoid interest costs exceeding your investment returns.
With the market improving, I have repaid the borrowed funds and am preparing to sell BTC at a high price to gain some profit.
Currently, selling $BTC at 81500 yields a pretty good profit of 20.34%.$BTC BTC 76,940 — 80K rejected, now cooling off.
Weekend tagged 80K (May high), then pulled back to 76,940. Still up 20%+ from 63K this week.
Three drivers behind the run:
· Macro: Treasury doubled buyback cap to $4B — debasement trade activated
· Short squeeze: $4B+ crypto liquidations in 2-3 days, BTC shorts ~$2.75B
· ETF bids: ~$1.6B net inflow this week — IBIT alone pulled $500M in a day
Pullback triggers: geopolitical jitters + profit-taking — 179K traders liquidated ~$900MOn August 24, global markets opened the week with a new risk: the US and Canada are approaching a round of trade war, after negotiations broke down and the US imposed a 50% tariff on some Canadian goods; Canada announced that it will impose retaliatory tariffs from September 🌍 8. Why is this noteworthy for Crypto? High tariffs can increase costs → persistent inflation → the Fed is difficult to ease, while trade uncertainty makes businesses and investors more cautious. That's a drag on BTC/Altcoin. But there's another side: the USD is $BTC Is there still a final drop? $58,000, could this be the bottom of this bear market?
Personally, I tend to believe that around 58,000 is very likely already an important low point in this cycle.
The logic of Bitcoin's four-year cycle hasn't completely disappeared; it's just that as the market matures, overall volatility is gradually decreasing. Every halving is accompanied by overheated sentiment, capital outflows, and significant corrections—essentially, human nature is at play.
Every time, people say "this time is different," but looking back, history often repeats itself in different ways.
Currently, the MA200 has reached above $65,000. As long as no black swan events occur, I think the probability of falling below $60,000 again is quite low. If BTC can consolidate above $60,000 for a few months, it would actually align more with the late bear market phase of gradually building a bottom and digesting selling pressure.
As for how high the next rally can go, I remain optimistic—at least 4x, even 5x growth is not impossible. After all, only with enough upside space can BTC continuously attract new funds and users into the market.
However, technically speaking, before the 19th, there is indeed a possibility of a "final drop."
But this time, the market rhythm has clearly changed. Market makers jumped ahead, and many technical traders got a harsh lesson, plus Trump keeps creating new variables. You may not like him, but you can't ignore his impact on the market.
Starting from $64,000, BTC has consecutively broken through two important resistance levels above. Now, what really deserves attention is around $82,000.
There will definitely be resistance at $80,000, but it may not be enough to truly hold back the market. If the price reaches around $81,000, this round of liquidity cleaning might be nearly complete.
Of course, I don't think BTC will keep rallying straight up like this. A more likely scenario is a few days of sideways consolidation to digest short-term profits before choosing a direction to break through.
If $82,500 can hold firmly, that would truly open up a larger upside space.
But I think this step might not come quickly, since BTC is best at sideways movement, and such consolidation often lasts for months.
Comparing the 2026 and 2023 trends, this cycle also saw a volume breakout above the 200MA. The current position is somewhat like the $25,000 stage after the 2023 breakout.
So when is the real time to be cautious?
I actually think it’s when altcoins start going crazy collectively.
When the market's rally spreads from BTC to altcoins, even triggering a full FOMO, that’s when caution should increase. Short-term pullbacks are actually a normal market rhythm.
The last truly comfortable buying opportunity was after the Silicon Valley Bank crash in March 2023. BTC once dropped near $19,000; market risks hadn’t fully cleared, but the rally had quietly started.
So this time, we still have a chance to see BTC below $70,000.
The question is, when it really drops below $70,000, will you dare to buy?
The so-called "final drop" often comes from major risk events in the late bear market. But so far, there are no signs of systemic crashes at major exchanges of that scale.
Therefore, at this stage, I lean towards: the bottom may have already appeared, and even if there are further pullbacks, they are more about digesting positions rather than starting a new big bear market.
$SOL $ETH #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ The market is wildly betting on currency devaluation; Wash's speech on Friday will determine the fate of US Treasuries and the crypto space
Last week, Treasury's Bassett stepped in to buy US Treasuries to rescue the market, doubling the bond purchase amount from 2 billion to 4 billion. However, this not only failed to suppress Treasury yields; after yields rebounded, it actually pushed gold and Bitcoin to the sky.
Bassett buying tens of billions more in government bonds is just a drop in the bucket for the massive debt market and doesn't really count as printing money. But big money sees this as an official disguised market rescue and immediately rushed into gold and Bitcoin for safety.
Everyone is pressuring Wash to reveal his hand. Now prices won't come down, and US debt keeps increasing. Since Fed Chair Wash took office, he hasn't given a clear stance; everyone is watching on Friday to see whether he intends to prioritize inflation control or economic support.
If Wash continues to dodge, US Treasuries and the market will be brutally hammered. If Wash can't deliver a tough solution on Friday, long-term Treasuries will be wildly sold off, and soaring yields will shock both the stock market and the crypto space.
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 Next Week's Gold Market Review | How the Market Will Operate from 8.24 to 8.28, and How to Manage Positions
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓