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$BTC broke through $79,286 today. If you only look at the price, this week has already been crazy. BTC has risen from around $63,000 to nearly $80,000, with a weekly increase of nearly 23%.
But I think the most important thing now is no longer "whether it can break $80,000."
Instead, this rally is about to face several consecutive tests: Nvidia's earnings report, US inflation data, and Jackson Hole.
Last week, $BTC's rise was mainly driven by ETF capital inflows, a weaker dollar, and US fiscal pressure. However, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 4.7%, and the 30-year Treasury yield is still near a 20-year high. Market expectations for a September rate hike have not completely disappeared.
This means BTC now faces a very real question: can it continue to rise in a high interest rate environment?
If Nvidia's earnings are strong, inflation continues to cool, and Powell's speech is less hawkish, there may still be room above $80,000.
But if inflation rebounds and long-term yields continue to surge, the large amount of accumulated profit-taking and leveraged funds could easily cause volatility to suddenly increase.
So at this point, I wouldn't just focus on the $80,000 whole number level.
BTC rose from $63,000 to $79,000 in just one week, but what really determines how far this rally can go might not be news from the crypto world itself, but the upcoming days in the US stock market and the Federal Reserve.Tonight the market shows a rather strange combination:
Gold continues to surge to about $4,600+, BTC remains near recent highs, but the US and Asian stock markets are relatively weak. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield is still around 4.7%.
I think the market is actually saying one thing right now:
"I want assets, but I don't really believe the future will be easy."
This is different from the usual risk-on scenario where everything rises.
So what I most want to see next is not whether BTC can immediately surge to $80K.
But rather:
Whether gold and BTC can continue to rise together.
If they can,
then the market trading might not just be a "bull market."
But a re-pricing of money itself.According to Lookonchain monitoring, this wave of rise may have basically cleared most of the previously significant directional shorts in the market.
Currently, the large short positions still visible on-chain are mainly concentrated in market makers' hedging accounts, which do not necessarily indicate they are purely bearish on the market. Among them, Abraxas Capital, Fasanara Capital, and Wintermute collectively hold about 138,600 ETH short positions, valued at approximately $338 million; additionally, there are 3,425 BTC short positions, valued at about $265 million.
This means that the previous force driving the price up by forcing a large number of shorts to cover and stop losses may be gradually weakening. Simply put, the short fuel is almost burned out, and what comes next is the real test of whether the market has sustained buying power.One week ago, it violently surged from 1.37 to 3.68, a 168% spike, with the White House crypto summit igniting FOMO — but just now, the team address transferred 3.837 million tokens to OK, then sold 1.1 million tokens cashing out $2.94 million, causing the price to instantly crash from 3.6 back to 2.4. Is this wave a "political bull" golden opportunity, or a classic script of insiders precisely selling at the top?
Technically, after the August 22 peak at 3.68, a clear pullback formed, with RSI cooling down from overbought 80+ to neutral. The current price at 2.4 is in the digestion phase after the rebound.
But meme coins don’t need fundamentals — they only need hype. And Trump’s hype won’t disappear in the short term.
The TRUMP coin is a microcosm of the entire meme market —
When it surges, you think "this time is different," but when it crashes, you realize "it’s always the same."
The team sold at 2.68, retail investors chased at 3.6. Who’s making money, who’s paying the price?
The biggest risk of meme coins isn’t the price drop, it’s that you think you’re investing, but you’re actually handing insiders their year-end bonus.
At TRUMP 2.4, do you dare to bottom-fish? Compared to $ZEC
$DASH is much weaker
The pullback is significant, and last night ZEC hit a new high
Dash surprisingly didn't move, which I didn't expect
If, as many say, the spring of privacy coins is coming
Then how could Dash, the second in command, not move
It should be more volatile than its leader ZEC
There is only one situation: this rise in privacy coins
is related to ZEC going for an ETF, but mostly it's hype
So everyone must not get carried away chasing highs, it will be difficult$2.4 TRUMP, do you dare to bottom-fish?
On August 19, at the White House Crypto Summit, Trump convened crypto executives from Coinbase, Ripple, and others along with the SEC and CFTC chairmen, publicly calling on Congress to pass the CLARITY Act, stating that it "has once and for all ended the crypto war." The token reversed in a V-shape from a low of 1.37, reaching a high of $3.68 on August 22, with a weekly increase of up to 80%. Shorts were liquidated for $30 million, and whales bought 100% — but then? It dropped back to 2.4 in three days, a decline of over 30%.
First: The team precisely sold near $3, while retail investors took the bags.
On-chain analyst Yu Jin monitored that the TRUMP team address transferred 3.837 million tokens to OKX yesterday, worth $9.33 million. Starting early today, the address sold 1.1 million tokens by adding unilateral liquidity, receiving 2.94 million USDC in exchange, with an average selling price of $2.68.
This selling method has become a fixed routine: swapping from the Meteora unilateral liquidity pool to USDC, then transferring through BitGo custody wallets to CEXs like OKX. The same path, the same script, from December last year until now.
Second: The halo effect of the White House summit is rapidly fading.
The August 19 summit was the core catalyst for this rally. Trump's pro-crypto stance, expectations for the CLARITY Act, and the CFTC pushing Hyperliquid into the U.S. — each was like a nuclear-level positive news. AAVE at $135, are you going to chase it?
Let's look at the surface first: from $85 to $144, a 70% surge in two weeks.
Up 50-60% in the past week, 45-50% in a month, TVL broke through $30 billion (Q3 growth 30%), deposits in V4 soared from 50 million to hundreds of millions. The price stands above all medium and long-term moving averages, the structure has completely turned bullish. The spring of DeFi is back, don't miss out. While you're hesitating whether to chase or not, it fell back from $144 to $135.
First thing: the founder said "Liquidity is back," this time he might not be lying.
Stani Kulechov said a word, and the market went wild. But slogans alone are useless—the data is verifying him:
Aave protocol total deposits exceeded $30 billion, Q3 growth so far 30%
Active loans about $10 billion, V4 deposits surged from 50 million to hundreds of millions in a few months
Clearing low-yield chains and markets ($98 million deposit optimization), capital efficiency is improving
The team confirmed they are developing an automated buyback mechanism—protocol revenue + GHO stablecoin revenue, part of which will be used to buy back AAVE
Aave itself is making money (lending spread, liquidation fees, GHO interest)
Previously, the profits went to the treasury, now part will be used directly to buy tokens
This is the Web3 version of "stock buybacks," and it is automatically executed at the protocol level
If implemented, AAVE will transform from a "governance token" into an "asset supported by real buy-side demand" The average oil price in August has clearly risen above that of July.
If energy prices push inflation up again, what should the Federal Reserve do?
Cut interest rates? No way.
Goldman Sachs previously said the Fed would not raise rates this year, on the condition that "oil prices fall below $70 per barrel."
Now oil prices are around $90. Do you think the Fed still dares to cut rates?
The U.S. Treasury market is already voting with its feet—the 10-year Treasury yield closed last week near 4.73%, and the 30-year is close to the highest level since 2007.
Yields rising means money is getting more expensive.
When money gets more expensive, liquidity tightens. When liquidity tightens, risk assets come under pressure.
And BTC, in this chain, is first a "risk asset."
The Strait of Hormuz is the "throat" of global energy transportation.
Before the war, one-fifth of the world's crude oil and refined products passed through here, about 20 million barrels per day.
What about now? On the 23rd, Iran played the "oil export countermeasure card": if the U.S. wages an economic war, there will be no more oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf region.
The same geopolitical conflict, the same Strait of Hormuz—
Some see "safe haven," others see "inflation → rate hikes → liquidity tightening."
Two directions, worlds apart.
Don't be fooled by the "war safe haven" narrative.
Bitcoin has indeed risen alongside gold during certain periods of geopolitical tension. $BTC pulled back from 76.6K to 78.6K overnight, and the dilemma of "chasing longs or missing out" on the timeline is back. My answer remains the same: after a 24% push in a week, repeated highs are the easiest to get hit from both sides. On the contract side, I'd rather stand aside empty-handed and watch; real money expressions should be placed on understandable spot markets and built up slowly. Most experienced players spend most of their time waiting, not jumping around on buttons. Are you traJust now $BTC quickly surged from 78,000 to 79,450 again, but as I mentioned before, I don't know if anyone saw my content, this is a bull trap, a rise without volume will basically be hit back!
Last week, ETF net inflow was $1.92 billion, buying for five consecutive days, but the price never broke 80,000. Over the weekend, it once dropped to 75,800; when liquidity thinned over the weekend, profits were taken back and the price couldn't hold.
Coinbase premium just turned positive, indicating US buying is returning, but 53,000 BTC flowed into exchanges within three days, all short-term holders selling.
75,600-76,000 is short-term support, 78,800-80,000 is a tough resistance. Jackson Hole is this week, the market is waiting for Chairman Powell's statement. ETF buying is real, but short-term profit-taking is also real. If it can't break 80,000, it will continue to consolidate in this range.
Ku strongly advises, don't chase just because it went above 79,000! If you didn't get in earlier, wait a bit longer; better to keep your ammo than chase highs! #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Note a divergence: Tonight, the US stock Nasdaq dropped nearly 1%, the S&P turned red, while $BTC and $ETH reversed and surged upward. When risk assets are out of sync, don't rush to create a bullish story solely for the crypto price. The strength of crypto this week is mainly driven by a short squeeze combined with fiscal liquidity narratives, with little relation to fundamentals. When encountering such divergence, I usually become more cautious—the leader may not necessarily be right, and the laggard may not necessarily be wrong. The real alignment of stocks and crypto will come with Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday. Until then, don't mistake the rebound for a trend. The decline in the storage sector has further expanded
SanDisk dropped from -9% to -10.3%, the semiconductor index fell to -4%, with no support during the session, indicating a trend-driven sell-off rather than a short-term emotional overreaction.
Reviewing historical volatility: In mid-July, the sector experienced a sharp correction, with SanDisk repeatedly dropping more than 11% in a single day, and then surging 23% on July 30. The recent decline in August is a continuation of the high volatility seen in July, not driven by new developments.
Market differentiation is very clear: Nvidia only fell 2.3%, outperforming the sector; heavily hit SanDisk and Micron have the highest exposure to HBM and enterprise SSD businesses.
The market is grappling with expectations of a peak in the storage cycle and AI capital expenditure shifting towards computing power, which is not a systemic risk.
SanDisk's over 10% drop this time is a rare single-day volatility in this round; attention should be paid to whether any fundamental events will validate this.
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15%
#ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估
$SNDK Trump just announced: starting in 2027, tariffs on Canadian cars and steel will be raised to 50%, adding "We don't need Canada." The steel index immediately rose 4%, while the Nasdaq on the US stock market dropped nearly 1%. Such big headlines easily tempt people to chase the market—but the tariffs won't take effect until 2027, so their impact on today's $BTC is more of an emotional disturbance than a trading trigger. The usual rule: first distinguish what is noise and what truly changes capital flows before deciding whether to act. Do you think this news is bullish for the coin price or just pure noise? #BTC surges then consolidates, ETF funds continue to flow in
"Strategy surges then stops buying BTC, sells 2 billion USD in stocks, sets up 1.59 billion USD cash defense to reveal financial reserve cards"
Bitcoin touched a high of 78,000 USD, but the global crypto giant Strategy did not add a single BTC last Monday.
Not only did the buying volume instantly drop to zero, the giant also sold 18.26 million shares of stock at the high, net withdrawing 2.0065 billion USD in a single week. The cashed-out funds were not used to buy any BTC but were used to repurchase preferred shares and inject capital reserves. Among them, 1.59 billion USD was allocated to an independent cash account. Its fiat cash reserves have soared to 6.69 billion USD.
During the bull market's critical phase, the giant is accumulating an enormous amount of cash in reverse, with a very pragmatic plan behind it.
It holds 840,000 BTC at a cost of 63.36 billion USD, with an average price of about 75,385 USD. The market is fiercely fluctuating around 77,000 USD, leaving less than a 4% safety margin from the cost line. Cashing out 2 billion USD in liquidity at the high essentially builds a firewall for the balance sheet. The 75,000 USD average cost line below has become the lifeline that institutions fiercely defend.
Accumulating 6.69 billion USD in cash breaks the illusion of unlimited buying pressure, leaving all the game pressure to the bulls in the market. $BTC #BTC surges then consolidates, ETF funds continue to flow in
"Strategy surges then stops buying BTC, sells 2 billion USD in stocks, sets up 1.59 billion USD cash defense to reveal financial reserve cards"
Bitcoin touched a high of 78,000 USD, but the global crypto giant Strategy did not add a single BTC last Monday.
Not only did the buying volume instantly drop to zero, the giant also sold 18.26 million shares of stock at the high, net withdrawing 2.0065 billion USD in a single week. The cashed-out funds were not used to buy any BTC but were used to repurchase preferred shares and inject capital reserves. Among them, 1.59 billion USD was allocated to an independent cash account. Its fiat cash reserves have soared to 6.69 billion USD.
During the bull market's critical phase, the giant is accumulating an enormous amount of cash in reverse, with a very pragmatic plan behind it.
It holds 840,000 BTC at a cost of 63.36 billion USD, with an average price of about 75,385 USD. The market is fiercely fluctuating around 77,000 USD, leaving less than a 4% safety margin from the cost line. Cashing out 2 billion USD in liquidity at the high essentially builds a firewall for the balance sheet. The 75,000 USD average cost line below has become the lifeline that institutions fiercely defend.
Accumulating 6.69 billion USD in cash breaks the illusion of unlimited buying pressure, leaving all the game pressure to the bulls in the market. $BTC Midnight on August 24! Spot reached 4680 with an engulfing pattern, currently at 4676, multiple upper shadows on the hourly chart unable to break through
Around midnight 8/24, control near 4686-4700, looking towards 4655-4625.
Note: The idea is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice $XAU How will the Federal Reserve manage long-term U.S. Treasury yields??? #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高 #ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 $BTC $ETH
Option 1: Forward guidance to stabilize market expectations, but currently, Walsh has clearly indicated abandoning this.
Option 2: QE. Under the current circumstances of rate hikes in Europe and Japan, implementing QE would relieve significant pressure on the equity and bond markets from the buyers' side. However, the global market not only requires pricing of carry trade spreads but also conflicts with Walsh's earlier balance sheet reduction plan. Currently, with the blockade in the Holmes Strait unresolved, QE could raise inflation levels and potentially affect the midterm elections.
Option 3: Implement YCC, a distortion operation that can control long-term U.S. Treasury yields in the short term but would damage the Federal Reserve's independence and the confidence index of the U.S. dollar.
So, what do you think the Federal Reserve and the U.S. should choose? From the bullish perspective, $ETH's current movement is seen as a consolidation phase after a new high. Holding the 2480‑2490 support and digesting selling pressure around 2520 could allow further upward expansion; however, a volume-driven break below the 2420 defense would weaken the current bullish momentum. Aggressive long positions are not recommended at present; wait for a pullback to support signals and volume confirmation before engaging in a new round of upward movement. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 I almost misunderstood one aspect of this SOL upgrade.
The mainnet slot time has been reduced from 400ms to 350ms.
The first reaction is often:
"Does that mean TPS also directly increased?"
Actually, no.
This upgrade mainly speeds up confirmation,
not just a blunt increase in network throughput.
And 350ms is only the first step; the goal is to push it down to 200ms later.
These tech news headlines sound impressive,
but you still need to clearly understand what exactly has improved.
$SOL#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
NVIDIA's earnings report after the market close on Wednesday is the toughest stress test in this AI bull market. Microsoft and Amazon prove AI is profitable through cloud growth, while Google and Meta's soaring capital expenditures have the market on edge again. NVIDIA is the starting point of the entire chain; its data determines the market's final answer to the question "How long can AI capital expenditures be sustained?"
What are market expectations? Bloomberg consensus expects revenue of $92 billion, a 96% year-over-year increase. Data center revenue is expected to exceed $85.4 billion, up 107% year-over-year, with hyperscale customers accounting for about $43.5 billion and industrial and enterprise AI about $41.7 billion. Adjusted EPS is $2.09, doubling year-over-year. The company's official guidance is $91 billion with a gross margin of 75%. The market has already pushed expectations to the ceiling; the $92 billion figure itself is a very high bar.
What is the market afraid of? Cloud providers developing their own chips are eroding NVIDIA's moat. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are all making their own AI chips, which is the biggest long-term structural threat to NVIDIA. NVIDIA has committed up to $105 billion in credit and computing power support for OpenAI's Ohio data center—adding a huge contingent liability to its balance sheet. Regarding valuation, the stock price is $214.72, down 9% from the 52-week high of $236.54, with a market cap that has evaporated by $236 billion in a week. The options market prices post-earnings volatility at about 6%, corresponding to a two-way fluctuation of $313 billion in market cap.On-chain data is often more honest than sentiment. Late last night, a series of actions by the TRUMP project team tore open a thin layer of calm in the market. On-chain records show the team first transferred 3.837 million TRUMP to OKX, which was about $9.33 million at the time; After midnight, another 1.1 million tokens were sold directly through a one-sided liquidity pool, exchanging for 2.94 million USDC, with an average transaction price of $2.68. When these numbers are put together, the picture is actually very clear: the project team is accelerating the cash-out of their holdings. What's even more noteworthy is that the batch of tokens transferred to exchanges is much larger than the sold portion, meaning that as long as this batch of tokens continues to be released into the market, selling pressure won't easily dissipate. Price pressure is only superficial; the deeper impact lies in participants' psychology—when everyone realizes the team still holds a large amount of inventory that could be dumped at any moment, any rebound will feel insecure. Meanwhile, the contracts market reacted more intensely. In the past 24 hours, BTC saw about $100 million in liquidations across the network, ETH at $140 million, and even TRUMP's own contract liquidations surpassed $12.94 million, with large amounts of funds forcibly liquidated on both sides of the board. The frequent occurrence of such two-way liquidations indicates that the market is in a period of intense strategic maneuvering before direction selection, with leveraged funds rapidly withdrawing and volatility pushed to quite high levels. Put these two lines together and see where the current TRUMP isZEC’s fundamentals still have a major trust overhang: the Orchard flaw was real and existed for years, while cryptographic proof that it was never exploited wasn’t possible. The emergency fix addressed the vulnerability, but the supply-integrity question remains important.
Bearish take: a strong price rebound doesn’t erase the unresolved trust issue. ZEC can stay volatile, and chasing the rally purely on momentum is risky.#财报观察员: Nvidia Leads as AI Returns Enter Verification Phase This week, Nvidia will release its latest quarterly earnings report. As the global leader in AI computing power, this performance officially marks the critical verification stage for investment returns in the AI industry. Previously, the market had long traded on the narrative of high growth in AI computing power, with funds generally betting on sustained high growth in data center business and strong demand for Blackwell chips. The current market expects Nvidia's revenue this quarter to approach $92 billion, with data center revenue accounting for over 90%, and gross margin remaining stable at a high level.
However, the current market logic has shifted. The focus is no longer solely on whether earnings exceed expectations but on verifying the sustainability of growth: including the capital expenditure rhythm of downstream cloud providers, HBM storage cost pressures, the ramp-up progress of the new generation Rubin chips, and whether AI inference demand can sustain the prosperity of the training side. Nvidia has previously reported impressive earnings but seen its stock price fall, reflecting that positive news has been priced in early, and funds are beginning to worry whether AI's high prosperity is nearing a cyclical turning point.
Nvidia's earnings performance will directly influence the sentiment of the entire AI sector. If earnings and guidance meet expectations, it will strengthen the long-term logic of the computing power track and drive recovery in the semiconductor and server industry chains; if growth slows marginally and gross margin is pressured, it will trigger profit-taking at high levels and intensify valuation corrections in tech stocks. This earnings test essentially marks the capital market's watershed moment as the AI industry shifts from "concept speculation" to "fundamental realization," determining the overall direction of the global technology growth sector going forward. $BTC $ETH $SNDK I'm Ci Ge. From 79,888 to 80,888, I short BTC. This level isn't drawn out of thin air—it's a combination of technical, capital, and macro signals all pointing in the same direction. What does this range mean? BTC rose from 63,000 to above 79,000 in a week, with a weekly gain of over $15,000, setting a record for the largest weekly gain in US dollars. But after reaching around 79,500, it never broke through 80,000. The price repeatedly fell back and was stuck again, now fluctuating around 77,000. The short squeeze cleared over $4 billion in short positions, but that fuel was already burned out. Going any higher, new spot buying is needed, not by bear stamping. From the perspective of long-short structure, 80,000 is the concentration zone for many options execution prices and also a psychological threshold for historical trapped positions to uneven, with selling pressure piling up. From 79,888 to 80,888, it is stuck at the upper edge of this threshold, representing the rebound's limit but not the starting point for a breakout. Technical signals: The 4-hour RSI was severely overbought during the rally, with new highs but momentum indicators not keeping up. After rising to around 79,000, the price quickly pulled back, indicating real selling pressure at high levels and not a fake drop. Technical analysis lists the 78,800 area as a key short-term resistance level; above 79,888 to 80,888, this is a more extreme emotional extension zone. Liquidity signal: Wintermute's short positions on Hyperliquid increased from 146 million to 190 million, with about 30 BTC short positionsHeard that the US-Canada trade agreement talks have collapsed? Is the crypto market going to crash?
If the US-Canada trade agreement talks fall through, Trump's midterm elections are basically doomed. If his midterms fail, the stock market will have a major correction.
But if the midterms fail, the ones really doomed are the crypto markets; the stock market has its own fundamentals.
If the election fails and regulatory legislation is blocked, does the crypto market still have good days ahead? But imagine if the US stock market crashes and creates a golden opportunity, wouldn't that be great? We could add more to QQQ and buy quality low-priced stocks. Let's cheer up!
$BTC $QQQ Don't move yet, this week is full of landmines.
On Wednesday, the core PCE and Nvidia earnings report come out on the same day.
On Friday, Jackson Hole—three major catalysts packed into one week.
If the direction is right, you can turn things around in a week; if wrong, the crash continues. Betting ahead in a week like this is no different than crossing the street with your eyes closed.
First, let's talk about Wednesday, the main event.
Core PCE is the Fed's most watched inflation indicator. If the data is below expectations, yields cool down, and tech stocks get a breather. If it's above expectations, the market keeps crashing.
After the market closes the same day, Nvidia's earnings report comes out. This might be the most important earnings report in the entire AI trade. Not because Nvidia alone is that important, but because the whole market's faith is pinned on AI right now. If Nvidia beats, chip stocks rally together, and the Nasdaq could rebound directly. If Nvidia misses, cracks appear in the AI faith, and what happens next is scary to imagine.
Then on Friday, there's Jackson Hole.
Fed officials will send signals at this meeting about how they view inflation, interest rates, and the next policy direction. The market will dissect every word. Even one wrong word can trigger big swings.
Three catalysts, all detonating within five days.
So my plan is simple: no moves on Monday and Tuesday.
The Nasdaq has fallen six days straight, and oversold signals are very clear. There's interest in going long. But betting ahead in such a catalyst-heavy week is not brave, it's reckless.
I need to see bottom confirmation.
If the PCE data is friendly, Nvidia's earnings strong, and yields cooperate by cooling down #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 Good evening everyone! Have you eaten?
The recent rebound of BTC, ETH, and SOL is jointly driven by the decline in long-term US Treasury yields, improved regulatory expectations, and the return of ETF funds. However, there are obvious differences in their capital structure, supply constraints, and narrative fulfillment.
$BTC As the market's ballast stone, spot ETFs have seen a phase of large net inflows, with the price standing above key resistance levels. Institutional funds mainly allocate to base positions, with short-term rises amplified by short-covering. But note, US Treasury inflation constraints have not been fully lifted, and historical trapped positions above still exist. BTC has no intrinsic cash flow; its price fully depends on external funds and consensus. This round is a liquidity recovery rally, not a fundamental change. Once rate cut expectations fluctuate, the market will quickly face pressure.
$ETH ETH has a higher beta than BTC, with ETFs simultaneously attracting capital inflows. The staking lock-up ratio remains high, and a large number of tokens have exited exchange circulation. However, Layer 2 networks continue to divert mainnet transactions, reducing Gas consumption and weakening the token deflation effect. The ETH/BTC ratio has not achieved a strong breakout. Institutional funds are more tentative entrants; if ETF staking functionality cannot be implemented, the core selling point of staking rewards will be lost. Although the ecosystem continues to iterate, it lacks phenomenally popular applications. The market still highly follows the broader market, lacking independent drivers.
$SOL SOL has the highest beta among the three, with the market simultaneously playing on SOL-ETF approval, network upgrades, and Meme ecosystem heat. On-chain transaction activity is warming up, and network performance upgrades add narrative value. However, the chips are mainly speculative funds, and continuous token unlocking brings selling pressure. The ecosystem's liveliness mostly comes from short-term speculative activities; the proportion of real sustainable business is limited, and fee income is hard to offset inflation. The upward breakout power is strong, but the chip structure is fragile. Once positive news is realized or risk appetite declines, the pullback will be significantly greater than BTC and ETH.
Currently, we are in a rebound verification window. BTC tracks the sustainability of ETF funds; ETH focuses on the ratio and staking-related regulatory progress; SOL closely watches ETF approval and ecosystem quality. If US Treasury yields rise again, all three asset types will face correction pressure. The market has emerged from a fragmented structural rally. Mainstream coins like BTC and ETH have bucked the trend and strengthened, with funds flocking to leading assets, while most small and mid-cap altcoins have been in a tough and bitter situation, with widespread declines. Funds no longer flow into smaller coins after Bitcoin rises as in the old cycle. Incremental funds are tightly held onto mainstream coins, with no spillover to narrative small coins. $CORE Deeply trapped in this structural bear market. Even as BTC's market recovers, it still fails to attract capital. Repeating the grand narrative of BTC-Fi, SatPay and AMP's long revenue plans remain stuck in the roadmap, with no real business returns on-chain. Daily trading volume is sluggish, buying opportunities are scarce, and even if Bitcoin shines, it can't illuminate its market. No matter how much Bitcoin aura is leveraged, it cannot change the reality of lacking capital to take over. $BICO Although it has already implemented BTC security business and offers real on-chain returns, it is not a leading mainstream and has been abandoned by the market, continuing to decline along with the altcoin sector. Only $OKB, backed by real cash flow from exchanges, has maintained its resilience amid divergent markets, with declines far smaller than the other two holdings. Many in the community suddenly realized that the old cycle logic of all coins rising once when Bitcoin rose was no longer effective. Some people see the structural reality: small coins without solid business implementation or real cash flow are unlikely to wait for a broad-based bull market, so they choose to be short and focus only on top assets. Many holders are still living in old cycle fantasies, stubbornly waiting for the knockoff season to arrive,Crypto Market Outlook for Next Week
$ETH $BTC
First, it’s important to understand that this rally is a violent rebound driven by Treasury liquidity intervention + short squeeze + spot ETF accumulation, not by interest rate cuts.
On the macro side: Federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, July CPI at 3.4%, market expectations for the September meeting are about 68% chance of no change, about 31% chance of a 25bp hike, and almost 0 chance of a rate cut.
Sentiment shifted from fear to greed in just five trading days, which is very risky. Historically, this combination of “unconfirmed macro + technical overbought + ETF pulse” often means the first wave of profits needs to be partially given back before it’s clear whether it’s a continuation or a false breakout.
👉 So for now, it’s best to wait for a pullback.
Next, focus on three key things:
1. Statements from Waller on August 27–29
Waller has replaced Powell, and August 27–29 will be his first major speech since taking office. Watch to see if he raises the probability of a rate hike in September.
2. Net inflows of spot ETFs
After the short squeeze ends, whether ETFs can maintain daily net inflows is a core indicator to judge if real money is buying #BTC after the rally, ETF funds continue to flow in #ETH after reaching $2500, then consolidating $BTC has indeed reached a very critical position on the weekly chart this time. Historically, this area has often served as a resistance zone for bear market rebounds, so the 80,000 level is not just an arbitrary number but a position that the market truly needs to break through with volume and capital.
However, the biggest difference this time is that off-exchange funds have clearly started to participate. Spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, combined with a weakening US dollar and a decline in long-term US Treasury yields, the funding environment BTC faces is indeed better than in previous rebound rounds. Therefore, it is not appropriate to simply assume based on historical trends that "reaching this level must lead to a drop."
Technically, the weekly RSI has not yet entered extreme overbought territory. If volume can increase and hold above 80,000, the area between 85,000 and 88,000 USD can continue to be observed; conversely, if the rally fails and the weekly candle closes below 74,000, it indicates another failed breakout, and the market may re-enter a larger-scale consolidation.
So the best strategy now is not to guess but to wait for the market to provide answers: break through and hold above 80,000 before considering following; wait for a pullback to key support to stabilize before considering buying the dip.
Currently, a bullish bias is acceptable, but there is no need to heavily bet on a breakout at resistance. Going forward, focus on the weekly close, ETF capital flows, and macro data—these three signals are more important than one or two short-term candlesticks.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 #财报观察员: NVIDIA Leads, AI Returns Enter Validation Phase Family, Wednesday night is the real highlight — Nvidia's earnings report. Some even believe this is more noteworthy than Fed Chair Walsh's debut at Jackson Hole. Since the AI investment boom began, Wall Street has been waiting for this moment every quarter. The Bitcoin market jumped from 65,000 to 75,000, and AI chip stocks also rebounded accordingly. But why did chip stocks fall before? Because the market has begun to seriously ask one question: after investing hundreds of billions of dollars into AI, when will it actually be recouped? This earnings report has already pushed expectations to the ceiling. Bloomberg consensus forecasts that Nvidia's Q2 revenue will reach $92 billion, a 96% year-on-year increase; Adjusted EPS was $2.09, nearly doubling. Data centers are expected to contribute $85.4 billion, up 107% year-on-year. Among them, hyperscale cloud providers accounted for 43.5 billion, and AI cloud and enterprise enterprises accounted for 41.7 billion. The company's official guidance is 91 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 75%. Institutions like Wade Bush predict 92.18 billion. The options market fluctuated about 6.2% after betting on earnings. But what the market truly worries about are these three things. First, exceeding expectations has become standard, but simply beating expectations is not enough. Morgan Stanley bluntly stated that simply beating expectations may not be enough to drive the stock price higher. The market should look at medium- to long-term logic. Second, major clients are developing their own chips. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are buying chips from you while manufacturing them themselves, which is a long-term headwind. Third, storage costs are soaring. AI server prices have risen by more than 15% due to memory costs, and cost pressures persistAfter BTC surged and then consolidated, ETFs continue to flow in. How should we view this market movement?
I believe the current consolidation leans more towards a strong accumulation phase rather than a topping signal.
Previously, after BTC's rapid rise, it moved sideways at a high level, which is essentially the market digesting profit-taking positions. What truly deserves attention is: the price hasn't significantly dropped, yet ETF funds keep flowing in.
This indicates a very important change:
Selling pressure is increasing, but buying demand is also continuously absorbing it.
Why is the continuous inflow of ETFs so important?
Part of the earlier rise came from short covering and sentiment-driven momentum.
But if BTC no longer rises rapidly and instead starts to move sideways while ETF funds still keep flowing in, it means the market is undergoing a high-level rotation.
Simply put:
Short-term funds → Taking profits
Medium to long-term funds → Absorbing the chips
If this process continues, it actually benefits the next upward move.
The most critical factor now is to watch the "sideways position."
If BTC can hold above the previous breakout zone:
Surge → Sideways → Pullback without breaking → ETFs continue to flow in
This is a healthier structure.
Because it means bulls have not clearly retreated despite the price rise.
Conversely, if we see:
Price sideways → ETFs start continuous outflows → Volume shrinks → Break below breakout level
Then we must be cautious that high-level funds are starting to take profits.
So, we cannot simply conclude the market is over just because it "can't rise further."
Three key signals to watch going forward:
① Whether ETFs continue net inflows
This is currently the most important capital indicator.
As long as ETFs keep absorbing spot chips, the nature of BTC's high-level consolidation leans more towards accumulation.
② Whether the previous breakout level can hold
The biggest fear after a breakout is falling back into the original consolidation range.
As long as key support is not effectively broken, the trend structure remains intact.
③ The direction of the next volume surge
High-level low-volume consolidation is not scary.
What truly determines the next phase is:
Whether volume surges upward or downward.
If volume breaks above the previous high again and ETFs continue to flow in, a new upward rally is likely to start.
My judgment:
Currently, I lean towards:
High-level consolidation ≠ Market end.
It can rather be understood as the market digesting the profit-taking from the earlier rapid rise.
If ETF funds can keep flowing in, after BTC completes the high-level rotation, there is still a chance to challenge higher again.
But blind chasing of the rise is not advisable here.
The most comfortable structure is not BTC continuously surging, but "rise—sideways—shakeout—rise again."
In short:
The price surged without a significant pullback, yet ETFs keep buying, indicating the market's absorption capacity still exists. What will truly determine the market's height next is not whether BTC can still rise, but whether institutional funds are willing to continue absorbing chips during the high-level consolidation. $BTC #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #沃尔玛在美销售放缓，消费压力受关注
The boss has something to say
Walmart's earnings report superficially exceeded expectations, but the details tell a different story.
Revenue was $187.9 billion, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.81, both higher than market expectations. The numbers look flawless.
However, U.S. same-store sales only increased by 2.6%, while the market expected 3.7% to 3.8%. That's a full percentage point short. The Q3 EPS guidance was also below expectations, causing the stock to drop 9% that day.
Walmart said nearly $3 billion in tariff refunds will be used to lower prices and improve customer experience. To translate: consumers can't bear it anymore, and Walmart has to use price cuts to retain customers.
Previously, Walmart benefited from inflation. Now it is starting to cut prices itself, indicating that the underlying consumer spending power is weakening. Retail sales in July fell 0.6% month-over-month, the largest drop since May 2025, which aligns with Walmart's data.
The PMI hitting a four-year high while Walmart's consumer demand is weak presents conflicting macro signals. A strong economy but weak consumption makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to make decisions.
For crypto, Bitcoin is still oscillating around 75,000. All long positions have been closed, waiting for a pullback. Weak consumer data is a reason for rate cuts, but strong PMI supports rate hikes. These two forces are pulling in opposite directions. Before PCE data and speeches from Fed officials, avoid heavy directional bets. Macro data continues to clash, so wait and see. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop losses on your trades. Good luck.Account Position Divergence Radar
The side with more people does not necessarily have heavier positions; this chart specifically separates quantity and weight.
$SOXL bullish accounts have already formed the majority, yet the top holdings ratio is still below 1, indicating a clear misalignment between faction and position weight. Price fell over 15 minutes while OI increased, showing that market pressure was not relieved by the decline. The next step for the bullish side is not more accounts, but confirmation of the top position weights.
$DOGE accounts lean bullish, but top holdings lean bearish; the side with more people is temporarily not the side with heavier top positions. Price and OI are falling in sync, with deleveraging currently the core focus. Exiting parties cannot rely solely on OI for judgment. If price rises but top holdings remain bearish, position measurement conflicts are likely during pullbacks.
$ZEC all accounts and top accounts lean bearish, but top holdings size leans bullish, showing account direction and position weight are opposite. A 15-minute rise with reduced positions looks more like short covering or overall withdrawal driving the move; new longs have not yet been confirmed. Until the top holdings ratio falls below 1, the bearish account advantage remains an incomplete consensus.抛清4.63亿枚狗狗币、流通股暴涨120%：卖狗砸钱搞AI，究竟是绝地求生还是资本游戏？ 把账面上的4.63亿枚DOGE全卖了，套现约3340万美元——表面看，CleanCore是在把“空气币”变成AI时代的基础设施算力。但如果你只看到“抛狗换AI”这个吸睛的标签，就完全低估了这家公司在资本市场上的杀伐果断，或者说，狡黠。 DOGE只是垫脚石，真正的大动作是“开闸放水” 卖狗狗币套现3340万美元听起来不少，但对于烧钱如流水、动辄千万甚至上亿美元购买GPU和建数据中心的AI业务来说，这点钱连门票都嫌贵。 真正支撑这场AI豪赌的，是它在二级市场上的疯狂融资： 增发股票：直接通过发行股票砸进了约1亿美元现金。 股本暴增：截至8月20日，公司的流通股从2.26亿股直接暴涨到5.02亿股，增幅高达121.9%。 潜在核弹：背后还悬着5.24亿股的认股权证。一旦这些权证全部行权，意味着公司总股本将突破10亿股——相当于把老股东的股权稀释了接近四分之三。 换壳拉估值：MEME过时，AI才是通关密码 为什么非要在这个节骨眼上清仓DOGE？ 在上一波加密热潮里，持仓Meme币或许能给股价添彩；但到了现BTC and ETH: Both Are Bull Retracements, But Which One Has a Healthier and More Sustainable Pullback?
Recently, the crypto market collectively pulled back after a rally. BTC dropped from a high of $79,000 to around $76,000, while ETH retreated from $2,550 to near $2,400. Market opinions quickly diverged: some shouted that the bull market was ending and rushed to sell at the top, while others saw it as a healthy consolidation during an uptrend. The core of judging the nature of a pullback has never been about how much it fell, but about the quality of the pullback: whether volume and price align, whether support holds, and whether funds are fleeing. Although both are bull retracements, the health of BTC’s and ETH’s pullbacks differ greatly, and the subsequent momentum of their markets is worlds apart.
First, looking at BTC, this round of pullback shows typical characteristics of "volume contraction, solid support, and no fund outflow," indicating a healthy consolidation during an uptrend. In terms of magnitude, the maximum retracement from peak to trough is about 4%. Compared to the over 20% rebound in this rally, the pullback ratio is less than one-fifth, which falls within a normal technical correction range. More importantly, volume and price coordination: daily trading volume gradually shrank during the decline, only about 60% of the peak volume during the rally. Price falling with shrinking volume indicates selling pressure is gradually weakening, with no signs of panic-driven heavy selling.
The fund flow data further clarifies the situation. Although the inflow slope of spot BTC ETFs has slowed, the overall trend remains net inflow. Leading institutional products have not shown any single-day large net outflows; instead, when the price dipped to the $75,000-$76,000 range, clear institutional absorption appeared. On-chain data confirms this: the large trend of net BTC outflows from exchanges over the past two weeks has not reversed due to the pullback. Whales and institutions continue moving coins to cold storage addresses for locking, indicating that the mid-to-long-term bullish logic of funds remains unchanged. The pullback is merely short-term profit-taking by floating chips, not a main fund exit.
The core reason for price pressure is the concentrated release of historical trapped positions in the $78,000-$82,000 range, combined with short-term profit-taking from low-entry positions. This is normal selling pressure during an uptrend, not a top signal. Technically, $75,000 is the core cost line for institutional accumulation this round and a short-term strong support level. As long as it is not effectively broken, the mid-term consolidation and upward trend pattern will remain intact.
Now looking at ETH, the pullback quality is clearly weaker than BTC, showing characteristics of "volume expansion on the decline, testing support, and loosening chips," leaning more toward profit-taking and rotation after an emotional peak. In terms of magnitude, the maximum retracement exceeds 6%, nearly 1.5 times that of BTC, with significantly larger volatility. The volume-price structure is also weaker: the decline is accompanied by volume expansion, with single-day peak volume close to the rally peak, indicating concentrated selling pressure, intense bulls vs. bears struggle, and poor chip stability.
The fund flow divergence is even more obvious. The net inflow scale of spot ETH ETFs is only about one-third that of BTC, with inflows further slowing during the pullback and highly concentrated in a single leading institutional product, lacking systemic industry-wide fund support. The derivatives market better reflects sentiment changes: during the pullback, the total ETH long liquidations across the network exceeded $600 million, accounting for over 70% of total crypto market liquidations, indicating clustered leveraged long positions were liquidated, and short-term speculative funds fled quickly. On-chain data also shows a slight net inflow of ETH to exchanges in the past week, contrasting with BTC’s continued net outflow, indicating short-term profit-taking chips are moving to exchanges preparing to sell on rallies.
Fortunately, the underlying staking fundamentals still provide a floor, with total network staking surpassing 42.6 million tokens, accounting for 35.3%, limiting deep downside from the supply side. However, the loosening of emotional chips at the top is a fact. Technically, the $2,380-$2,400 range is a short-term dense chip support zone; if effectively broken, the adjustment space will further open.
Overall, although both are bull retracements, their quality and momentum differ completely: BTC’s pullback is a normal consolidation led by institutions, with shrinking volume, support, and stable funds. The mid-term bullish logic remains intact, with hope to break new highs in consolidation. ETH’s pullback is a sentiment-driven profit-taking rotation, with volume expansion, large volatility, and loose chips, posing higher short-term adjustment risks. It will need new narrative catalysts to restart the uptrend.
In terms of strategy, BTC can continue to be treated with a mid-term allocation approach: hold the base position, accumulate in batches at support zones during pullbacks, and avoid changing direction lightly due to short-term volatility. ETH is more suitable for swing trading: take profits in batches at resistance levels, wait for pullback stabilization before considering buying dips, strictly control position size and leverage to avoid passive losses amid volatility. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S.-Iran tensions are escalating as Washington imposes new sanctions targeting Iranian oil buyers, traders, and financial channels. Secondary sanctions could further disrupt global oil flows. 🚨 Hormuz traffic has reportedly fallen sharply, with just 7 ships passing Friday and no large oil tankers or LNG carriers. Brent gained 6.4% last week to ~$93. For $BTC, the key risk is inflation: higher oil prices could delay rate cuts and pressure risk assets. The real test is whether sanctionsBitcoin’s 7% Pump Isn’t the Real Story
Bitcoin just ripped 7% to nearly $69.8K —its biggest one-day move since March.
But here’s the catch: this looked more like a short squeeze than a clean demand-driven breakout.
Nearly $1.37B in shorts were liquidated in 24 hours, with over $1B wiped out in a single hour. Then Treasury stepped in with plans to at least double long-end buyback support, pushing 30Y yields lower and making non-yielding assets like BTC relatively more attractive.
#DailyOrbit $xSPCX 136.97, only 1.5% above the IPO price of 135, down 39% from the peak of 226. In early August, it once dropped to 104.83, breaking below the issue price. The storyline of this stock is even more thrilling than a SpaceX launch.
Review: Listed on June 12 with an opening price of 150, surged to 226 four days later with a market cap touching 3 trillion, then the Colossus 2 lawsuit threatened a 45 billion Anthropic contract, leading to a continuous decline. The first financial report on August 4 showed TTM revenue of 23 billion +122%, but a net loss of 8.9 billion, with a forward PE of 105. The market voted with its feet, directly breaking through the issue price.
Now at 137, it sits right in the middle of the "faith zone." Bulls and bears are fiercely debating:
Bulls say: Starlink subscriptions have surpassed 10 million, growing at 2-3 million per quarter; launch business holds 90% market share; Starship entering orbit in H2 this year is a turning point in human spaceflight history; 35 analysts have an average target price of 213, with 56% upside.
Bears say: A company losing 8.9 billion annually, with a 1.86 trillion market cap and a forward PE of 105, is propped up only by narrative; the Anthropic contract lawsuit is unresolved; what if Starship explodes again?
My view: SPCX is not a short-term stock, but a faith holding for three to five years. If you believe in Starship, slowly accumulate around 135; if not, don’t touch it. There is no middle ground for this stock. Pre-market today is down 1.72%, don’t catch a falling knife in the short term. $ZEC Clearly Bearish: $850 is the absolute top for this round; chasing higher means taking the bag.
Four hardcore logics, all verifiable facts:
Core value is nominal and hollow
Zcash started with zero-knowledge privacy payments. Among the 13.61 million ZEC circulating on the network, only 1.31 million are actually using shielded addresses, accounting for less than 10%. The main feature's adoption rate is extremely low, the privacy narrative is just a marketing slogan, and the fundamentals lack substantial growth support.
Technical advantages completely lost
Once a benchmark project for zero-knowledge proofs, ZK technology is now widely adopted. ZK Layer2 and next-generation privacy public chains continuously divert users and funds. In recent years, aside from the Orchard upgrade, Zcash has had no landmark technological breakthroughs, development pace lags behind, and its influence in the sector continues to weaken.
Structural inherent bearish factors
The protocol takes a fixed cut from block rewards to fund ecosystem development, continuously releasing selling pressure into the market; meanwhile, the privacy sector has long been marginalized, lacking incremental capital inflows, and the market is purely a game among existing players. The volume of this rebound is decreasing step by step, with no new capital supporting high prices.
Strong technical resistance cannot be broken
$850 is a historically dense area of trapped positions; previous multiple rallies have been blocked and pulled back at this level. This round's rise lacks fundamental catalysts and is only passively driven by sector linkage, fundamentally unable to absorb the huge trapped positions above. Price reaching this level marks a phase top. If Musk were to promote Dogecoin now, the market would likely get lively for a while, but it probably wouldn't be easy for it to develop a truly independent trend.
First, let's talk about why there would still be a reaction in the short term. Musk is deeply tied to Dogecoin, from early Twitter memes to SpaceX accepting Dogecoin payments for merchandise. He is almost like an "unofficial spokesperson" for this coin. Whenever he speaks, retail investor sentiment, social media buzz, and short-term capital can instantly ignite, making it entirely possible to see a decent price surge within a few hours. This celebrity effect remains a rare trigger in the crypto market.
However, the problem is that the impact of his promotions has clearly diminished over the years. At the peak in 2021, a single tweet from him could send $DOGE soaring by dozens of percentage points, but later on, similar statements usually only cause brief spikes followed by rapid declines. The reason is straightforward: experienced retail investors have learned their lesson after several rounds of losses, institutional funds focus more on fundamentals rather than influencer effects, and the regulatory environment is much more sensitive than before. Promotion can create volatility but cannot generate sustained buying pressure.
As for an independent trend, Dogecoin itself needs strong logical support, such as real-world payment adoption, expansion of on-chain ecosystems, or favorable macro liquidity conditions. These are not things a single tweet can solve. Musk can bring traffic, but turning that traffic into a trend requires the right timing and conditions.
So the conclusion is clear: promotions cause spikes, but after the spikes, the market most likely returns to calm. Instead of treating it as a trading signal to chase, it's better to view it as a sentiment indicator to observe. This week's macro framework reference citation, today only need to focus on one thing — US-Iran dynamics
1. Whether the US economic sanctions on Iran will be implemented
2. How the Pakistani military's feedback in Tehran on the 1st is
This week's PCE reflects past inflation, while energy prices represent future inflation. At the current stage, the fluctuation function between energy prices and PCE is oil price 5%± fluctuation = core PCE ± 0.03%~0.05%
Therefore, this week's PCE and current crude oil prices should be viewed with the same weight, especially today. If the US imposes economic sanctions on Iran (TACO), crude oil prices will return to a downward trend, and inflation will shift toward optimistic expectations.
Conversely, if sanctions on Iran are implemented, and secondary economic sanctions on countries like China are designed, crude oil prices will rise, increasing inflationary pressure expectations.
Currently, after the US stock market opened, the intraday decline in energy prices stimulated bond yields to weaken, easing inflationary pressure in the short term. However, gold remains strong, US stock risk appetite contracts, and the market is still in a relatively cautious phase! This indicates that uncertainties remain high this week! #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 🚀"DeFi Leader AAVE: Deposits Surpass 30 Billion, Returning to Growth Track" --- Worth watching the DeFi sector at the start of the bull market.
AAVE rose over 60% this week, breaking $140, hitting a new high since February. Founder Stani Kulechov announced at the 30 billion deposit milestone: "Liquidity is back."
This is not hype; fundamentals are speaking.
1. Deposits at 30 Billion, DeFi Leader is Reviving
Aave's total deposits surpassed $30 billion, with Q3 growth at 30%. TVL rebounded from the annual low of $11.86 billion in June to $17.69 billion, a 21.6% increase in 30 days.
The protocol dominates the decentralized lending market with a 62.8% share of transaction volume, and cumulative lending volume exceeded $1 trillion, making it the first DeFi protocol to reach this milestone.
2. Aavenomics 3.0: Auto Buyback, Tokenomics Upgrade
Aavenomics 3.0 officially launched, with the core change being an automatic buyback mechanism — 100% of all protocol and GHO revenue is directly allocated to the DAO treasury, automatically executing AAVE buybacks.
Annualized protocol revenue is about $402 million, with historical cumulative fees exceeding $2.21 billion. The DAO can buy back approximately 292 AAVE tokens daily.
3. Institutional Funds Are Flowing In
V4 deposits grew from about $50 million in early May to over $400 million by mid-August. Institutional clients are served through the Horizon permission framework, with partners including VanEck, Ripple, Franklin Templeton, and others.
Grayscale's report points out that AAVE's current price is below fair value, with a baseline 12-month target price of about $175.
4. Technicals: Breakout Confirmed, But Short-Term Overbought
Price stands above all major moving averages; breaking $130 is interpreted as the start of a new upward wave. However, RSI has risen above 71, indicating an overbought region and increasing the probability of a short-term correction. Support levels are at $130 and $120-121, resistance at $142-150.
5. My View:
This AAVE rally is a narrative of DeFi fundamental recovery, not a speculative pulse. Long-term outlook is supported by institutional positioning plus Aavenomics 3.0 as dual catalysts, but short-term chasing is risky.
Consider entering after a pullback to $128-130 or $120-121 to confirm support, which is safer than chasing $140.
#AAVE #DeFi #Aavenomics3.0 #InstitutionalPositioning #Crypto$SPCX is repeatedly tugging below the $135 IPO price, with derivative sell pressure above $140 still clearly evident.
319 million shares of early restricted stock are set to enter circulation this week, putting spot liquidity through its first concentrated test since listing.
A massive capital expenditure of $18.369 billion this quarter has heightened caution over cash burn, while over $25 billion nominal short positions accumulated on the derivatives side simultaneously establish hedging locks above.
The market's weak risk appetite resonates with early shareholders' low-cost cash-out needs, gradually pushing the originally limited on-exchange support depth toward a vacuum.
If buying can complete sufficient turnover at the $135 level and recover with volume, the channel to test the $140 resistance zone will reopen; otherwise, a low-volume pullback will directly signal a failed rebound.
If selling pressure breaks through the $130 to $132 support band, forced liquidation of leveraged long positions may drive prices further down to the $125 area, but a quick rebound after breaking would temporarily close the downward channel.
As long as the spot price fails to form new share accumulation above the IPO price, derivative shorts' suppression of rebound space is unlikely to be disproved.
The most important variable to watch in the coming week is the net buy order absorption capacity at the $130 level amid ongoing release of unlocking selling pressure.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战Market Viewpoint: At this stage, heavy BTC holdings require extra caution
Many investors still hold large positions in Bitcoin, but considering the ETH/BTC exchange rate trend, this allocation logic deserves a fresh review.
Why am I not choosing to hold Bitcoin right now?
The core judgment is that in the next two to three years, Ethereum is very likely to outperform Bitcoin.
Observing the annual ETH to Bitcoin exchange rate, after years of continuous decline, the drop has significantly narrowed this year, with the candlestick pattern close to a doji, indicating a potential reversal.
Even if Ethereum cannot significantly outperform Bitcoin in the short term, the room for further significant underperformance is quite limited.
The price correlation between the two coins is very high, so pursuing a higher risk-reward ratio by prioritizing Ethereum allocation is a more reasonable approach.
Looking at Bitcoin’s own market, the price was around 62,000 at the beginning of August, then quickly surged to 80,000 in a short time; this rally’s foundation is not solid.
It’s like rapid weight loss relying on laxatives—most of what is lost is water, not actual fat. After the short-term appearance, there is a possibility of price retracement.
From a macro perspective, it’s hard to expect Bitcoin to enter a true bull market by 2027.
The underlying logic is not complicated: the overall risk asset environment next year is not optimistic. The annual signal for the US stock market is becoming clearer. I made a judgment in Q2: the US stock market can maintain high-level oscillation in Q3, with repeated tug-of-war from July to September; starting Q4, it will face downward pressure, and 2027 will see a larger-scale correction $BTC Arthur Hayes promotes Flop Network as bringing strong narrative premium, but the token FLOP is currently facing a direct conflict between the timing of machine settlement demand implementation and the liquidity barriers of general stablecoins.
The founder's black-or-white stance of either zeroing out or ranking in the top two for pricing has boosted high-risk appetite funds' willingness to gamble on this binary game token, with speculative positions concentrated on the tail premium driven by celebrity effect. This highly narrative-dependent chip structure is very vulnerable to shocks from macro liquidity tightening and risk asset deleveraging.
The key transmission mechanism for assessing FLOP's pricing power lies in the marginal buy-side support from market risk appetite for off-chain settlement assets, which takes priority over the specific penetration rate of agent computing power payments. The network effect of general stablecoins squeezing machine micropayment channels is a secondary transmission factor determining whether the chips are thoroughly settled.
The bullish scenario is based on the assumption of overall valuation expansion of the AI concept and early realization of silicon-based payment demand. When the share of transactions settled on-chain by decentralized high-frequency micropayment protocols rapidly breaks through warning thresholds, the market will prioritize re-pricing dedicated settlement currencies, with funds concentrating from general stablecoin liquidity pools into FLOP chips.
If general stablecoins seamlessly penetrate and occupy the vast majority of transaction shares in machine micropayment scenarios on high-performance public chains, or if on-chain machine transaction volume continuously shrinks, this bullish logic will be invalidated.
The bearish scenario is driven by risk appetite decline and position liquidations triggered by inflation/release pressure. Once the celebrity effect marginally diminishes causing speculative funds to settle profits, and the real on-chain micropayment demand from AI Agents cannot fill the expanding chip supply, the token will face a binary downside risk of liquidity exhaustion and rapid collapse of the valuation system.
If the token secures large-scale long-term locked funds at the lower bound of the binary valuation, and the computing power network's high-frequency settlement capital continues to increase, the downtrend will be halted accordingly.
In the next 7 days, close monitoring is required on changes in on-chain micropayment transaction counts, the degree of general stablecoin share squeeze in similar micropayment channels, and the net inflow rate of high-risk appetite funds into binary game chips.
#Anthropic拟8月底公开IPO文件，募资或追平SpaceX #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？ #ZEC创站内历史新高，隐私资产重估On the chessboard, sacrificing the queen is never about conceding defeat but setting a trap; however, OpenAI's move here sacrifices the initiative for the entire midgame.
I am a grandmaster who doesn't focus on single moves but on the endgame twenty moves ahead. Q2 revenue of 6.7B, an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase, is impressive; but the operating loss expanding from 9.3B to 12.3B is like charging forward with half your pawns only to find your king's wing leaking. Even more glaring is that Anthropic's revenue in the same period was 11.6B, doubling and even generating a small profit—using the opening theory you abandoned, they executed a beautiful Spanish Exchange.
The real key in this game isn't OpenAI's loss figures but the cautious step of "going public in 2027." Every grandmaster knows that caution isn't retreat but waiting for the opponent to reveal a flaw first. Yet by conceding space in the midgame, you effectively open the c-file for the opponent's heavy pieces to invade. An 18% quarter-over-quarter growth rate versus a 32% expansion in losses is a classic "kingside attack, queenside on fire" scenario. Every player has faced moments like this—you calculated a sacrifice attack but didn't anticipate the opponent had a low-tier Siberian Hedgehog defense ready.
Now look at the XPL token. The most dangerous piece on the board isn't the queen but the seemingly immobile knight—it jumps over obstacles to bite your hidden weaknesses. XPL's linked reaction is like the highly controversial a6 move in the Sicilian Defense, ostensibly a preparatory pawn but actually baiting the opponent into a draw. Now all the coordinated funds on the board are waiting for one signal: will OpenAI go public early? If growth accelerates and the timeline shortens from 2027 to sooner, it's like suddenly gaining a passed pawn—but remember, a passed pawn well-used becomes a queen; misused, it becomes a live piece gifted to the opponent.
Anthropic's small profit is even more lethal. It's like the opponent gaining a minor piece advantage, seemingly trivial but in the endgame, a minor piece advantage translates to 62 winning variations out of 128. What else can you hope for? Technical dominance built on losses? That's an opening trick, fooling only those spectators who watch the game through GIFs.
The chess clock is ticking. The CFO's all-hands letter essentially tells all watchers: we are still in deep thought. But grandmasters know deep thought often leads to bad moves. When the "strategic piece exchange" you spent forty minutes devising in the midgame is just a well-memorized variation to your opponent, you should realize—this game has already lost the kingside.
Now it's XPL's turn to move. Is the money behind it ready to exchange another piece or settle for a draw? There is no draw on the chessboard, only winners or deadlocks. #openaiq2losswidens2026.8.24: Summary of thoughts, I don't believe the crypto space here can produce a major trend market. Why? Even the US stock market can't produce a major trend, it's oscillating in a high-level range. Liquidity doesn't support staying in the crypto space continuously. I am more inclined to believe this is a wave of emotional capital harvesting orchestrated by interest groups around Trump, including Wall Street. They harvested and then retreated. They already knew what Trump was going to say at the meeting that night. Moreover, companies like Nvidia are also working hard to issue bonds. Do you think liquidity can support funds staying in $BTC $ETH here continuously? This is a wave of emotional short squeeze! Recording the planet, recording real trading!Scaffolding was dismantled halfway, the load-bearing wall didn’t collapse—but the floor slabs creaked.
On August 6, the first batch of 912M shares were unlocked. The market watched like spectators waiting for concrete to set, expecting cracks to immediately spread across the exterior walls. What happened instead? Prices didn’t fall but rose, climbing back above the $135 issuance price. It’s like a supertall building that, after removing temporary supports, still has its core tube standing straight, with settlement monitoring data better than expected. As someone who entered with the blueprints, I have to say: real structural testing is always done with staged loading, not a one-time press.
On August 20, these 319M shares are the second set of jacks.
To understand this level, you first need to grasp the load-bearing logic of unlocked shares. The chips held by early investors and employees aren’t ordinary bricks but prestressed steel strands embedded at the structure’s base. Their confidence in the company is the initial tension force of this building. When the first batch was released, the market assumed they would sell off like breaking down walls, but no one did—indicating these steel strands are well anchored, and owners have no impulse to withdraw funds overnight.
But this level isn’t my focus.
Going further up, the real load test is ahead. The remaining batches are still hanging on the tower crane hook; the locked inventory is like uninspected floor slabs—each waiting for its load date. Now the market asks, "Can AI, Starlink, and launch business absorb the floating shares?" This question is actually a false proposition. Have you ever seen a building collapse just because the floor area is large? Floor slabs only transfer loads; the real life-or-death factors are the stiffness of beams and columns and the bearing capacity of the foundation layer.
Back to the $XCH tokenized shadow asset, it’s like the architect’s model sandbox—all force analyses are simplified but enough to let you see the main load paths. Coupling effects won’t show on the blueprints but appear in the data cracks from wind tunnel tests. What you can read from the candlestick chart is the market’s aesthetic vote on facades and curtain walls, not structural safety.
The first batch didn’t break through, the second batch hesitated, and the third batch is still being poured.
Each unlocking layer is a redesign of stiffness for the existing structure. You can never use the previous load test results to predict the next failure load. Construction techniques, material batches, and environmental temperature and humidity are all changing. It’s like two towers with identical facades—one can withstand an 8-magnitude earthquake, the other shows glass curtain wall vibrations in a level 6 wind.
The only difference lies in the node design you can’t see. #spcxunlocks319m $2.6 billion entered the market, yet Bitcoin stalled at 79,000 — what’s next to watch?
$BTC 79,000, $ETH 2,500. A week ago, BTC hovered around 60,000, now it’s up 23% — Ethereum even surged 31%. The trigger is clear: the Fed doubled the scale of Treasury repos, directly pushing down US bond yields and the dollar, seen by the market as a form of "stealth QE." But the policy effect lasted only one day, with long-term bond yields rebounding immediately. The market is pricing in not a "problem solved," but "government forced to intervene."
On the capital side, last week ETF net inflows were $2.6 billion, but IBIT alone accounted for $1.1 billion, indicating institutional allocation rather than retail FOMO. Over $4 billion in shorts were liquidated; the rebound was driven by spot buying and short covering, but on the year, Bitcoin ETFs still saw a net outflow of $2.9 billion — a strong week isn’t enough to change the trend.
Technically, ETH is the only asset to break through key resistance at $2,371, while BTC stalled below the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level at $78,500. Short-term support lies at 73,300 and 71,250, with ETH support at 2,268. If volume contracts and stabilizes, turnover is healthy; a volume-driven breakdown calls for caution.
Next, watch three variables: whether the US Dollar Index can hold the 200-day moving average (99.1), whether long-term bond yields are truly controlled after September repos start, and progress on the CLARITY Act.
The trend hasn’t been falsified, but the risk-reward has shifted from "excellent" back to "neutral." The direction hasn’t changed; rhythm matters more than direction — let the market take a couple more steps, don’t rush to bet. 😌
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入