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$ETH If someone told me five days ago that Ethereum could hold steady at 2400, I would have laughed at them for being crazy about money.
But now it's at 2445.
From mid-April, it dropped from 2400 all the way down to 1500, consolidating for a full four months. So many people sold at the brink of dawn. Then in just a few days, it recovered all the losses, and now it’s retesting 2400 without breaking it — this script is even more dramatic than a TV drama. Today it’s down -0.82%, fluctuating narrowly around 2445, basically a turnover after the rise, bulls catching their breath.
The ETH/BTC rate has returned above 0.031, a three-month high. What does this mean? This round is no longer a solo BTC dance; funds are starting to price ETH. ETF fund flows have turned positive, discussions about L2 returning to the main chain are heating up, and the narratives are all coming alive.
But honestly, now it’s scary to chase longs, even opening a short position risks getting trapped. Every step above 2400 is the corpse of trapped positions from April this year, 2485 is today’s high, and 2500 is a psychological barrier.
My simple approach: don’t try to guess the top or bottom, hold a base position above 2400, cut half if it breaks below 2350, admit the mistake if it breaks below 2200. Leave the rest to time. Why am I always the one losing money? Because I always want to be smarter than others. Now I just hope to hold on better than others. ETH’s stronger 24-hour performance while BTC holds around $77.5K looks more like selective rotation than a broad risk-on breakout. The $2,500 level for ETH is important, but real confirmation would require ETH to continue outperforming while BTC maintains its footing. Macro conditions still call for caution. Treasury buyback signals could provide some liquidity support, but renewed Iran-related oil risks may bring inflation pressures back into focus. For now, I’d view the crypto strength as cons🔥BTC surged to 79,500 then pulled back, holding steady at 77,000; the move before 80K is not a buildup but a chip shuffle $BTC
At 17:45 on August 24, BTC was priced at $77,455, up 1.17% in 24h, with a market cap of $1.55T; weekly gains are about 22%–23%, marking the best August performance in nearly a decade and the strongest single week since 2026. Last Friday, intraday highs reached 79,286–79,516 but failed to hold above 80K, then dipped to 75,800 over the weekend before recovering above 77K. This is a classic "high-level chip shuffle before 80K."
The strongest support in this wave is ETFs, not retail FOMO. From 8/17 to 8/21, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive days, totaling +$1.918 billion, the strongest single week since October 2025; notably, 8/19 +$517 million, 8/20 +$606 million, 8/21 +$308 million, with IBIT taking the lion's share. Coinbase premium index also turned positive for the first time since 5/19, ending 97 days of negative values—US spot demand has truly returned.
But cracks have appeared:
About 53,000 BTC flowed back to exchanges in the past 3 days, mainly from short-term holders (STH), indicating profit-taking is underway.
Futures open interest remains high at about $55.4 billion, with the 4-hour RSI dropping from above 90 to around 69, indicating "high-level overbought digestion," not a "deep correction release." $BTC #财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
Nvidia's earnings report is out, and the market followed a completely unexpected script.
The impact on the crypto space is twofold.
In the short term, sentiment transmission: Nvidia fell after hours, and AI concept stocks dropped across the board. Crypto, as a high-beta asset, faces short-term risk aversion pressure. If US tech stocks continue to be hammered, BTC will also struggle to stay strong in the short term.
The long-term narrative remains, but the market is starting to nitpick. The $41.1 billion data center revenue is not due to weak demand but overly high expectations. For the crypto AI track and DePIN projects, this means the market's tolerance for "storytelling" is decreasing, and it is beginning to demand solid revenue realization. Purely speculative concepts are increasingly hard to sustain; only those with real business support will remain.
Here’s my take.
Nvidia's after-hours plunge suppresses sentiment in the short term. The 80,000 integer level won't be broken in one go; it's normal to consolidate and digest profits.
The direction is correct; capital expenditure on AI infrastructure is still rising, and Nvidia itself says the market space is 3 to 4 trillion. But the market's tolerance for high valuations is indeed declining, so don't get too carried away with the pace. Waiting for a pullback before acting is better than chasing highs.
Simply put, patiently waiting for a correction to go long is fine.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $CRCL common stock rose more than five points in a single day, but the on-chain token recorded a negative premium against the trend in pre-market trading of U.S. stocks, showing hesitation in cross-market capital flow.
The token price hovered around $87.56, with the daily RSI reaching 79.6, approaching the overbought zone, and the upward momentum clearly converging below the Bollinger upper band at $91.52.
The Nasdaq 100 token fell 0.36% in pre-market trading, and the overall cooling of preference for tech assets weakened the willingness of on-chain capital to chase the common stock's rise.
The weakening sentiment in the U.S. stock market and the overbought technical condition on-chain combined to quickly generate a -0.48% discount on the token side, swiftly erasing the sentiment premium brought by the common stock's rally.
If tech sector buying strengthens after the U.S. market opens and drives the token to recover from the negative premium, the price will have a chance to retest the resistance at the Bollinger upper band.
If the U.S. market continues to decline and the RSI turns down from a high level, the discount pattern may trigger a more severe technical pullback on the token side.
If the common stock continues to increase volume and effectively drives on-chain buying after the open, the current judgment of stagnation will be directly disproved.
The real strength of Nasdaq's support after the U.S. stock spot market opens in the next 24 hours is the key to determining whether this round of cross-market price differences can converge.
#英伟达AI服务器或涨价超15% #特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注Term Labs vault suffers governance attack · About $8.5 million $BTC
On August 23, Term Finance's Meta Vaults were hit by a governance attack, with approximately 2,843 ETH (about $6.87 million) and 1.68 million USDC withdrawn.
According to PeckShield, the attacker gained 100% voting control over 4 of the 5 USDC strategy vaults, and about 91% control of the Meta Vault; according to GoPlus, about 0.5 ETH was exchanged for tmvETH, then gtmvETH was minted to vote, followed by proposals to withdraw funds. Yearn stated that Term's self-built governance layer was involved.
The initial 2 ETH came from Tornado Cash, only the source of funds, not identity attribution; assets were consolidated to 0xD518…Fc13, USDC was swapped for about 1.6–1.68 million DAI, accounting for about 68% of the vault's assets.
On August 24, the official response was to shut down all Meta Vaults, revoke DAO governance roles, and permanently ban new deposits, while withdrawals remain possible; the underlying lending markets are reportedly unaffected according to current investigations.
Governance rights equal withdrawal rights; when the price is far below the controlled assets, attacks require no code vulnerabilities. Before depositing, be clear about who can move the funds and the time locks, distinguish between underlying protocols and wrapped vaults, and beware of phishing.[Aheng on Duty Today | August 24] After a sharp rise, entering high-level digestion; today's focus is on whether funds can continue to support
1. Market Snapshot
BTC: $77,339, 24h +0.98%, 7d +22.09%
ETH: $2,461, 24h +2.00%, 7d +29.90%
SOL: $94.43, 24h +1.20%, 7d +25.49%
Total market cap approximately $2.62 trillion, up 0.87% in 24h; trading volume about $93.4 billion. BTC dominance remains at 59.2%, market sentiment index rises to 78.
Today's keyword is not "continued surge" but "high-level digestion." Prices remain high, but intraday gains and volume are clearly lower than during the breakout phase on August 20.
2. Last Week's ETF Funds Confirmed Strongly
From August 17 to 21, cumulative net inflows into US spot ETFs were approximately:
BTC: $1.918 billion
ETH: $693 million
SOL: $28.7 million
Among them, BTC and ETH spot ETFs combined net inflows totaled about $2.61 billion, with BTC maintaining net inflows for five consecutive trading days.
This confirms the previous condition that "rises require continuous fund confirmation" and indicates last week's market was not driven solely by short-term sentiment.
3. Review of August 20 Judgments
Three verification conditions were proposed at that time:
Can BTC stabilize around $70,000: confirmed, currently about $77,300;
Can ETFs continue net inflows: confirmed, continued inflows on Thursday and Friday;
Can ETH maintain relative strength: confirmed, 7-day gains exceed BTC.
Not yet confirmed is whether "funds are spreading continuously to a broader range of altcoins." Although ETH, SOL, and XRP showed strong gains, BTC dominance remains at 59.2%, indicating core market funds are still concentrated in top assets.
4. Most Important Macro Event This Week
The US will simultaneously release on August 26 at 20:30 (Beijing time):
Second quarter GDP revision;
July personal income and spending data;
July PCE inflation data.
Previously, the US Q2 GDP preliminary value was an annualized growth of 1.5%, while the latest FOMC minutes show several officials remain concerned about persistent inflation and believe further tightening may be necessary.
Therefore, what really needs observation this week is not how the market guesses the data, but after the data release:
How US Treasury yields and the dollar react;
Whether BTC can maintain its high level;
Whether ETF funds continue to absorb profit-taking.
5. Aheng's Phase Judgment
The current market structure can be defined as:
Price trend: moderately strong
Spot ETF funds: clearly strengthening
Market sentiment: entering high-level greed zone
Macro conditions: still restrictive
Sustainability: awaiting this week's fund and PCE data verification
If ETFs continue net inflows, BTC maintains the post-breakout price range, and ETH remains relatively strong, it indicates the market is shifting from short-term recovery to more stable fund-driven movement.
If prices fall back, volume contracts, and ETFs turn to continuous net outflows, then the current judgment should be downgraded from "fund-driven" to "a phase rebound after a sharp rise."
Watch the funds first, then listen to the story; write invalidation conditions first, then opinions.
This post is for market research and information exchange only and does not constitute investment advice. $TRUMP
TRUMP remains below its MA10 and MA20, while each rebound has struggled around 2.49–2.51. The bounce from 2.379 is visible, but it has not yet changed the bearish 1H structure.
Short setup where available:
Entry: 2.49–2.51 after rejection
TP1: 2.43
TP2: 2.38
TP3: 2.30
Stop-loss: 2.55
A clean 1H close above 2.55 would invalidate the bearish continuation idea.
Shared for informational purposes, not financial advice. Meme coins can move sharply.
#BTCETFInflowsSurge #ETHTests2500 BTC surged but didn't continue to rally, but ETF funds kept flowing in. Let me first distinguish: strong turnover or selling through liquidity. The most interesting thing today isn't whether you managed to get a higher price. It broke the trend after reaching $78,066, and the current price has fluctuated back around $77,478. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $1.92B over five trading days last week. Money hasn't stopped, but prices haven't accelerated—I'll see who's selling first. 5-day inflows are not single-day pulses: continuous net buying from 8/17 to 8/21, $606M on 8/20, $308M on 8/21. This kind of money isn't made by watching 5-minute candlestick candlesticks. But if you only buy and don't sell, BTC won't immediately stabilize after a rally. So now it's more like: ETFs are taking over chips, short-term profit-taking and pre-high trapped positions are also selling off by borrowing liquidity. On the contract side, it can also rule out a misunderstanding: OKX BTC perpetual OI is $2.31B, with a fee rate of +0.01%. This is not like a typical short-squeeze mad bull—the leverage is not out of control. Spot funds are buying, and selling pressure at high levels is also real. Hard Data (OKX BTC/USDT): · Current price $77,478 · 24h $76,498–$78,066 · 24h +1.3% · ETF 5-day approx. +$1.92B · Cumulative net inflow of approximately $53.7B · AUM approximately $96.1B · 8/20 SingleCL and BZ both plunged this morning, already up 5% last week. Once the news arrives, all the good news is out, profit-taking positions are dumped and running. This is the standard buy expectation and sell reality. What's even worse is the liquidity side: CL's long-short ratio is 422%, BZ 633%. Six bulls play one short. The average cost for bulls is 85.97 and 87.84. Now the price has fallen below or is approaching. Out of 251 CL longs, only 39% are profitable, with an unrealized loss of 670,000 dollars. This structure is like a ticking time bomb. If the price drops again, the bulls will be forced liquidated, and chain liquidations will create even deeper pits Technically, RSI is already oversold, but the price is falling on high volume. Bottom-fishing funds are still rushing in. Volume-price divergence. Steady fans entered long positions around 82. Avoid crowded places. Crowded bull positions fall harder than anyone else. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡, ETF funds continue to flow in. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家: F1 and TI15 results revealed Watched $CRCL all night, the underlying stock rose 5 points yesterday, but the token barely moved, and the premium even turned negative. This market situation is quite interesting.
📰 News: The underlying stock closed up 5.16% yesterday, but the media is still digging up old issues, saying it has dropped over 70% from its historical high and questioning whether to update the investment logic; Cathie Wood keeps adding positions as it falls, Wall Street is confused, and the disagreements are messier than the candlesticks.
🔧 Technicals: The daily RSI14 is already at 79.6, clearly overbought; MACD has a golden cross but the red bars are shrinking, price is above MA7/MA25 but hugging the upper Bollinger band at 91.52, short-term momentum is lagging a bit.
🌍 Macro: Nasdaq 100 tokens are down -0.36% pre-market, risk appetite hasn't picked up, tokens are clearly not buying into the underlying stock's recent rally.
🎯 Today's view: I'm bearish. Overbought conditions plus token premium at -0.48% not keeping up with the underlying stock, and a weak pre-market overall, it's hard for me to be bullish at this level, at least not today.
📊 Token 87.56 (-0.10%) | Underlying stock 87.98 (+5.16%) | Premium -0.48% | US stock pre-market
#USStockTokens
#StablecoinSector
#CRCLToken Matt Cole, Chairman and CEO of Strive, recently made an interesting assessment: he believes the next Bitcoin cycle could become "the strongest cycle we've ever seen." His logic is not simply bullish on $BTC, but rather linking AI to "scarcity." The faster AI develops, the lower the marginal costs of content, software, and productivity may become, making many things increasingly accessible. But the more "supply increases" in this world, the more truly scarce assets tend to be repriced. This is also why Cole is optimistic about $XAUT, silver, $XAG, and Bitcoin. His logic can be simply understood as: AI makes many things cheaper ↓ Scarcity becomes more precious ↓ Capital is more willing to chase limited supply assets ↓ Gold, silver, and Bitcoin benefit Moreover, BTC has not only risen against the US dollar but also strengthened against gold, indicating that the market may not just see Bitcoin as a high-volatility risk asset but is re-examining its "scarcity asset" attributes. Of course, short-term risks cannot be ignored. This round of rally involves short covering and leveraged driving; the faster the rise, the greater the short-term pullback pressure. What really deserves discussion is: If AI really makes more and more things cheap in the future, will "scarcity" become the most expensive asset? Bitcoin may be one of the most typical digital assets in this logic. #CZ stated that 20.07 million bitcoins have been mined, with only 4.4% remaining unmined. Considering 10%-20% are permanently lost, it is essentially a deflationary asset. In terms of figures: the current annual issuance is about 164,000 coins, an annualized rate of 0.85%, so supply is still expanding; the remaining 4.4% spread out until 2140 means the annual marginal supply approaches zero. Lost coins are part of the existing stock and have long been factored into historical prices. The overlooked opposite side is: this week's approximately 22% price increase is unrelated to supply. The drivers come from long bond repurchases and regulatory progress, with over $4.3 billion in short liquidations triggering buybacks, and spot ETFs seeing a net inflow of about $1.6 billion during the week. Scarcity is a constant backdrop but cannot explain these five days. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. Besides focusing on whether the $BTC market trend will continue,
it's also crucial to pay attention to the trends in Web3 primary market financing amounts and deal counts, which have currently dropped to a six-year low.
Historically, these figures tend to rise in sync with the recovery of the secondary market.
In recent months, there has been a divergence between financing amounts and financing events, indicating that a few projects are receiving more capital support.
After several cycles in the industry, narratives still dominate, and verifiable business models remain lacking.
Meanwhile, AI has become the new technological narrative center in the capital market, with substantial funds flowing into computing power, models, and application layers.
This shift has caused Web3 to lose the capital attention advantage it had in the previous cycle.
Some might say that concentrated capital bets signify industry maturity, but I believe this is not the scenario for an industry still in development.
Because it means a significant space for innovation and trial-and-error is shrinking.
Looking at the funding distribution by sector this year, the answer is clear: VCs no longer buy into "narratives."
Large primary investments are mainly concentrated in the CEFI and DEFI sectors, both characterized by "verifiable business models."
Various paradigms and applications that were discussed in the past no longer appear on my timeline.Xiaomi launches three chips simultaneously, loosening the monopoly of storage giants
Xiaomi $XIAOMI has released three Xuanyuan chips at once: self-developed mobile SoC, AI acceleration, and intelligent driving chips, with O100 and D100 officially commercialized next year.
AI companies are collectively developing chips—$ANTHROPIC recruited the father of Google's TPU, $OPENAI partnered with Broadcom to develop inference ASICs, and Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are all developing their own. Inference costs account for over 80% of the total model cost, and self-developed chips have energy efficiency far surpassing general-purpose GPUs. Leading players will inevitably develop their own chips.
What does this mean for Micron and SK Hynix? Short-term orders won't disappear, but the long-term logic has changed. When customers start making their own chips, the bargaining power of storage giants will be weakened. All positive factors have already been priced into the stock, so only exceeding expectations can drive the price up.
The shovel sellers are being undermined by their biggest customers themselves. 📉Jackson Hole Countdown: Wash Faces a "Transparency Test" — The Market Wants More Than Just Hawks or Doves, It Wants a Clear Policy Logic
This week, Wash will deliver an important speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting for the first time as Federal Reserve Chair, with the market expecting him to explain how inflation, employment, and economic growth will influence subsequent policy.
The July FOMC meeting maintained interest rates unchanged by a 9-3 vote, but three officials supported a rate hike, revealing clear internal divisions. Wash did not fully explain the rationale for holding steady after the meeting, nor did he provide clear rate guidance, sparking doubts about policy transparency and the decision-making framework.
What the market awaits is not a simple hawkish or dovish stance, but a set of judgment criteria that can connect economic data with policy actions. The clarity of this "policy framework" will directly impact: September rate hike expectations; the US dollar index trend; the US Treasury yield curve; and the pricing of risk assets such as gold and BTC.
Jackson Hole is the Federal Reserve's "annual stage for ideas." The market is tired of "data dependence" as a catch-all answer — what Wash needs to answer is: dependent on which data? To what extent? When will action be taken?
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $BTC surged to 79,500 last Monday, then fell back to around 77,000, up 23%. The market erupted in debate: is this a true bull market return or the largest short squeeze in history?
Those calling it a bull market have solid reasons: the dollar is weakening, the US is set to massively repurchase Treasury bonds, and funds are flowing into devaluation trades; ETFs saw a net inflow of $2.6 billion this week, institutions added positions against the trend during Q2 declines, and major holders increased their $BTC holdings by over 40,000 coins in two months. Regulatory signals are also warming up, with Trump meeting crypto leaders and new SEC rules released.
But don’t celebrate too soon. The trigger for this surge was actually short liquidations—$1.4 billion closed out in one day. How long can this forced rally last? The Fed’s rate hike shadow looms, with over a 30% chance of a hike in September. If expectations shift again, BTC will be hit first. Geopolitics remain unstable: US-Iran talks collapsed, North Korea is acting up again. Plus, the CLARITY Act may not pass when the Senate reconvenes in September.
My feeling: the rebound rides on currency devaluation and short squeezes, but the old problems suppressing $BTC remain. Can 80,000 hold? So it’s too early to call it a bull market; first, we need to see if these pressures truly ease.
#贝莱德重申BTC仍具配置价值 #美伊制裁升级，能源通胀风险回升
The U.S. has launched its "most devastating economic action" against Iran, with Iran threatening to block Gulf oil — oil prices rise, inflationary pressures increase, making the Federal Reserve's job even harder.
The U.S. plans to announce a new round of sanctions on Iran, described as the "most devastating economic action," with potential impacts possibly extending to Iran's major trading partners.
Iran has warned that supporting these measures could be seen as an "act of war" and has threatened to restrict Gulf oil shipping routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
The key question for the market is:
Will the new round of sanctions cause actual supply losses, or will it remain mostly at the deterrence level? If the sanctions have limited effect, oil prices may give back gains;
If Iran takes substantive countermeasures (such as expanding shipping restrictions), oil prices could rise further, and inflationary pressures will once again become the market's main theme.
The U.S.-Iran standoff returns to the old "sanction-countermeasure" script, with oil prices surging on the news. For the Federal Reserve, the variable in the September decision has increased — it's not CPI, not nonfarm payrolls, but whether oil tankers can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz.Before opening the position, I monitored the DEX liquidity pool of $SPK. At around 0.02271, the token reserves in the pool suddenly increased by 25%.
The slippage also increased accordingly, indicating that a whale was dumping tokens into the pool preparing to sell. After seeing the pool depth surge, I entered a 20x short.
Currently at 0.02149, floating profit is 107.44. The stop loss has long locked in the cost. For those who missed it, wait for the next time the DEX pool depth suddenly increases. $BTC $ETH ❗️The U.S. has started rescuing the bond market
Yesterday, the yield on 30-year U.S. government bonds soared to 5.34% — its highest level since 2007.
And then, unexpectedly, the U.S. Treasury stepped in and announced that it was ready to increase the volume of its bond buybacks — from $2 billion to $4 billion.
And then it added that this might not even be the limit, and the amount could be even higher.
Why does this matter?
It’s pretty simple. When U.S. government bonds are yielding more than 5% with almost no risk, investors naturally start asking themselves: why should I even bother getting into stocks and crypto?
Well, the outcome is obvious.
And now the U.S. is trying to push those yields down: it creates additional demand for bonds → their prices rise → yields fall.
When that happens, money starts looking for higher returns again.
That’s exactly how the market reacted to the news today. As soon as bond yields dropped sharply, gold moved higher, while Bitcoin gained around 4.5% and climbed back above $71,000.
The most interesting part is that the Treasury hasn’t actually carried out those promised buybacks yet. For now, the market has simply heard the promise and has already started pricing it in.
And if those promises do turn into even larger buybacks, it could be a very positive scenario for stocks — and especially for crypto 👀Michael Burry这次对阿里的态度变化，很值得看。 这位《大空头》原型已经退出Alibaba（$BABA），转而持有JD.com。更关键的是，阿里这次融资后，他直接表达了不满，甚至表示股价可能还要再跌一大截，才会重新引起他的兴趣。 一、Burry为什么不满？ 阿里宣布发行7.1亿股新股，融资约102亿美元，资金主要投入AI基础设施、芯片和模型。 问题在于： 发展AI没错，但增发意味着现有股东被稀释。 所以Burry真正质疑的，不是阿里做AI，而是： 为什么要让现有股东为这场AI投入买单？ 二、阿里也有自己的理由 站在阿里的角度，现在AI竞争已经进入重投入阶段。 如果现在不扩建算力、不做芯片和模型，未来可能直接掉队。 所以双方分歧其实很简单： 阿里认为，不砸钱可能失去未来；Burry认为，再好的未来，也不能无限稀释股东。 三、这件事给投资者什么启发？ 看AI公司，不能只看“投入多少钱”。 更重要的是： 这些钱最后能不能变成收入、利润和现金流。 Burry这次真正质疑的，不是AI有没有未来，而是： AI的未来，值不值得今天的股东先承担这么大的成本。 如果一家你长期看好的公司，为了A#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期
NVIDIA, Marvell, and Salesforce are releasing earnings this week — the market is no longer satisfied with "AI storytelling," it wants "compute power turning into cash"
This week marks a dense earnings period for the AI industry chain:
August 27 (early morning) NVIDIA, Synopsys, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, Okta covering both hardware and software
August 28 (early morning) Marvell semiconductor/network connectivity
The performance of NVIDIA and Marvell will be key to testing: whether demand for compute power is still accelerating; whether network connectivity (optical communication/interconnect) can keep pace with GPU iterations; chip design activity and gross margin performance; statements on next-generation products and customer capital expenditures — all of which will impact global semiconductor supply chain expectations
Salesforce, Okta, and CrowdStrike will test: whether AI capabilities can bring new orders and revenue; or if they only increase R&D and compute costs without converting to profit
Strong chip sales represent AI's "present tense," while strong software sales represent AI's "future tense." This week's earnings will tell the market: how long the AI return cycle really is. $BTC $ETH #OKX预言家: F1 and TI15 results revealed. As of 17:23 on August 24, 2026, BTC was quoted at $77,719 (24h +0.83%, intraday range 75,560–78,051), ETH at $2,463 (24h +1.67%, after inserting 2,546 pins at the weekend, rebounding to 2,450+). On the weekly chart, BTC +23.6% and ETH +31.3%, marking their best weekly performance since March 2023. However, the first wave of short squeezing (3 billion short) has stalled, entering the second wave of "ETF + depreciation trading" with high-level turnover. 🌍 International Latest (before 17:00): US long-term Treasuries at the top: 10Y 4.74%, 30Y 5.28%. Besen's long-term bond buyback was 4 billion RMB per dividend and flattened, DXY 98.9, gold 4,661—BTC is moving toward 'de-dollarization' and not following US stocks. Wednesday's thunderstorm this week: Nvidia earnings report on 8/26 + Wash-Jackson Hole debut around 8/27 + PCE on 8/29, market pricing in a 25bp rate hike in December; Pigeons → 85k, mid-→ 78k, eagle → 70.8k. Regulatory sweets: SEC's proposed 'Reg Crypto Assets' framework (5M/75M dual exemptions) + CLARITY bill vote in September + White House strategic BTC reserves, compliance discounts continue to shrink. ETF hard data: Last week, BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of 1.92 billion yuan over 5 days (August 19 alone).Trump is the number one scammer in the world. After transferring 3.837 million TRUMP (9.33 million dollars) to Oklahoma X yesterday, the Trump token team sold 1.1 million $TRUMP tokens by adding one-sided liquidity early this morning, exchanging them for 2.94 million US dollars.
Their team first spread false news that Trump would issue tokens again, attracting attention to the Trump tokens. Once Trump was pulled, they started dumping them repeatedly. How audacious for a head of state to dream of such a thing.
$TRUMP $WLFI Do not touch these coins—they are all produced by the Trump family$ETH This market rally really caught people off guard. If someone had told me a few days ago that ETH would surge from around $1,900 to $2,500+ in a short time, I would probably have thought it was too exaggerated. That's exactly how the market moved—ETH surged nearly 30% in a single week, at one point reaching around $2,546, clearly outperforming BTC over the same period. What's even more interesting is that this round of rally is not driven solely by retail investor sentiment. Recently, BTC and ETH spot ETF funds have clearly rebounded. On August 19, BTC ETF net inflows were about $517M in a single day, and ETH ETFs were about $186M; Subsequently, on August 20, BTC ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of about $606M. Institutional funds have re-entered the market, combined with short squeezes, which has accelerated this rally. So what's the most embarrassing thing now? When prices rise, they don't dare to chase; when pullbacks happen, they're afraid of missing out. Just as they are about to short, the price suddenly jumps for a while. In the end, it becomes: no one dares to chase long, no one dares to open a short position, and can only watch the price go up. $BTC After briefly breaking above $79,000, the market pulled back, and the market is currently fluctuating at high levels; ETF funds remain one of the most noteworthy variables in the short term. After such a rapid rally, the real question to watch is no longer whether it can continue to rise, but whether the $2,400 resistance level can shift from resistance to new support. The market never rewards "guessing the most accurately."The fact that ETH is first targeting $2,500 suggests that the order of capital attacks has shifted in this cycle. During the last period when Bitcoin hit $83,000, ETH stayed at $2,400, so what does it mean that ETH has reached resistance before BTC recovers $80,000? The key facts are clear. BTC has yet to break through $80,000, while ETH has already approached the psychological resistance level of $2,500. This is not just a simple simultaneous rise, but rather a signal that ETH, which had been relatively overlooked, is attracting buying momentum first. The structural difference in this move is that the target of 'chase buying' has changed. In the previous rally, funds moved to ETH after confirming BTC's strength. However, right now, instead of waiting for BTC to rise further, funds are proactively moving to cover ETH's price discount first. This marks the early phase of risk appetite expanding into altcoinsToday's top gainers list feels off.
The overall market isn't crazy, but DeFi is going wild.
SPK surged over 26% in a single day, MORPHO up 20.84%, AAVE up 16.76%, PENDLE up 14.34%, ENA up 13.64%.
This isn't the mindless pump of meme season. Capital is selectively choosing targets, and the picks are very sharp.
Three signals tell you this round is different:
Signal one: The gainers are all "revenue-generating and governance-enabled" protocols, not air coins.
AAVE—the lending leader with real interest income. PENDLE—in the yield trading sector with real protocol revenue. ENA—a synthetic dollar protocol with real business use cases.
It's not meme coins leading the rally, but DeFi blue chips taking the lead.
Signal two: ENA surged 96% weekly, whale positions remain untouched.
ENA's one-week gain reached 96%, far exceeding the sector average.
The key point? In March 2025, whales massively increased holdings in AAVE, MKR, and ENA, a year and a half ago—and their positions haven't moved since.
This is not short-term speculative capital. It's long-term positioning.
Signal three: The market transmission path is extremely clear
ETH → DeFi blue chips (AAVE, PENDLE) → emerging protocols (SPK, MORPHO).
The rhythm is clear, the layers distinct. Very similar to the broad rally in May 2024.Behind ETH Leading the Rally, Understanding the Market Funds' Preference Shift
In many previous market trends, Bitcoin would lead the market rally, with ETH passively following. However, this round is completely reversed: ETH has become the main offensive force, while BTC fluctuates to provide support.
This reflects the market funds' mentality: during the rebound cycle, funds are no longer satisfied with Bitcoin's low-volatility returns and begin to pursue the elastic premium brought by Ethereum. In terms of trading volume, ETH's transaction scale also exceeds BTC's, indicating higher fund activity.
But the reality must be seen clearly: BTC's weak rise indicates that the overall incremental funds in the market remain limited. This is an internal rotation of existing funds, with some funds flowing out of Bitcoin into ETH.
This rotation market has two sides: ETH can become stronger, but once funds flow back, the leading coin's correction will also be more significant. In terms of operation, avoid chasing the rally; waiting for a pullback to support before considering opportunities is much safer.
#TradingInsights #CryptoMarket
$BTC
$ETH
$DOGE 1. On August 23, industry research showed that SanDisk and Kioxia's NAND remains at 218 layers, lower than Micron's 276 layers, Samsung's 286 layers, and SK Hynix's 321 layers, and they are not listed among manufacturers that have clearly shifted to molybdenum word line technology, creating pressure from the technological generational gap.
2. As of the week ending August 21, the AI high-beta portfolio fell 12%, the AI hedged portfolio fell 10%, semiconductors entered a short-term momentum bearish portfolio, with deleveraging and capital rotation dragging down memory stocks.
3. On August 21, Fortress Investment disclosed that it had disposed of over 80% of the risk exposure of the acquired portfolio through more than 100 block trades; the portfolio was originally heavily weighted in SanDisk, and the concentrated risk reduction increased supply pressure on related stocks.
4. On August 24, the memory industry cycle downturn and ongoing AI bubble concerns continued to suppress SanDisk, Micron, and Western Digital; SanDisk has risen 572.37% year-to-date, and profit-taking at high levels further amplified the correction #卡什卡利称美债未失灵，长债回购能否治本？
Indeed, Kashkari believes the U.S. Treasury market is functioning normally and does not require Federal Reserve intervention, which sharply contrasts with the Treasury Department's expanded repurchase "rescue" efforts. The mainstream market consensus on whether long-term Treasury repurchases can "solve the root problem" is clear: they cannot. This is more like a tactical intervention that cannot address deep structural issues.
Kashkari's stance of "no rescue" versus the Treasury's "rescue" actions precisely reveals the essence of the current dilemma: the root cause lies in fiscal policy, not monetary policy or market technical failures.
With the Federal Reserve unwilling to coordinate intervention through balance sheet expansion, the Treasury's repurchases are like "using a credit card to pay a mortgage"—using new debt (short-term debt) to pay off old debt (long-term debt), which does not solve the fundamental debt burden. As long as fiscal discipline is not restored, global capital does not return, and structural supply and demand remain imbalanced, the upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields will be difficult to truly alleviate. #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
Interestingly: what the market really lacks now is not an answer about rate cuts, but a policy framework that can be priced in advance.
I actually think the most valuable part of Warsh's speech this time is not whether he is "hawkish or dovish."
What the market really wants to know is: what exactly is the Fed looking at next.
If employment continues to cool down but inflation remains sticky, will interest rates be adjusted early due to employment pressure? If data like PCE and GDP continue to conflict, which side will policy prioritize?
This is what will determine BTC's future trajectory.
My habit is not to bet on a direction ahead of such major events.
I'd rather miss the first candlestick than lock myself into a viewpoint before the speech.
The easiest way to lose money in macro trading is to mistake "expectations" for "facts."
This time, I’m more focused on whether Warsh can clearly explain the future judgment framework.
If he only gives the market a vague answer, volatility might actually increase.
Will you position in advance, or wait for the speech to land before making a move?
$BTC $ETH The overall market is broadly down, BTC -0.9%, SOL -2%, DOGE -3%, while $OKB bucks the trend, rising 4 points to stand at 113. This pace definitely makes it an outlier among exchange tokens.
Why is it like this? I've broken it down into three logics:
First, the compliance narrative is taking hold. Licenses from Dubai, Bahrain, and Australia have been obtained one after another in the past six months. The market is re-pricing OKX from a "Chinese exchange" to a "global exchange," and this revaluation is not yet complete.
Second, the on-chain ecosystem is picking up. OKX Chain's TVL has doubled this quarter. OKB, as the Gas and governance token, has for the first time gained substantial on-chain fundamental support, no longer just a fee discount coupon.
Third, and most tangible, is the buyback and burn. The circulating supply is only 21 million tokens, with a historical high of 257, now at 113, a halving level. Quarterly buybacks with real cash and the deflationary logic of burning fewer tokens over time is especially favored in a market of fixed supply competition.
But to pour cold water: a 10% rise in 7 days means there are many profit-taking positions in the 108-116 range. Above 116 is a previous trapped zone, and breaking through requires volume. The fact it can still rise today despite the weak overall market shows the buying is solid, but chasing the high is not cost-effective.
My approach: continue holding the base position as ballast, and add more on dips to 105-108. The alpha of exchange tokens lies in platform fundamentals, not short-term speculation. $TRUMP It is difficult for a sustainable surge to survive. Why? Because every time the price rises, members of the Trump family go to sell the coins. With this continuous stream of selling, what can it use to keep rising? Moreover, the short-selling power in the market remains very strong. So I think it's okay to keep emptying now. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its current contract open interest has slightly decreased, while the long-short ratio has slightly increased. However, its current contract open interest remains high, and the long-short ratio remains low. This means that the number of short positions taking profits in the market is still relatively small, and the air force still holds a significant advantage. Let's take a look at its longer-term data. It can be seen that data from longer and shorter periods are similar. This means that, both in the short and long term, the market is bearish. —————————————————— Moreover, according to on-chain data feedback, the $TRUMP team has been selling tokens. In the past two days, they have already sold tokens worth around ten million US dollars. In this situation, I don't believe $TRUMP can sustain its rise. —————————————————— At this point, you can definitely short $TRUMP. Shorting it is safer than shorting other coins, because the team behind this coin doesn't trust it.Seeing the Iranian official currency drop like this this afternoon, I have a feeling that at 2 a.m. tonight, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will say something bearish about Bitcoin $BTC. I've been speculating a lot recently, but I hope it's true, hahaha.
With the devaluation of the Iranian currency, some funds will definitely be transferred into cryptocurrencies. Because the U.S. dollar can't be used in Iran and is not officially recognized, they will turn to cryptocurrencies. I feel it will mainly be stablecoins, but recently, USDT and USDC have had source-level risk controls and froze some Iranian accounts, making stablecoins unstable for use in Iran. So I think they will shift more funds toward Bitcoin.
And since the U.S. is going to impose economic sanctions on Iran, they will control funds from the source, which means they will definitely sanction Iranian cryptocurrency exchanges and even the channels for cryptocurrency liquidity. What actually convinced me to examine $DOGE was its connection to a gaming-focused blockchain ecosystem rather than treating the token as isolated. Gaming networks can use blockchain infrastructure for transparent ownership, transferable digital assets, and programmable interactions between applications. Most projects usually deliver only one or two capabilities, so combiningWhat actually convinced me to examine $OG was its connection to a .The Trump family holds 37.5% of the WLFI token shares through related entities, with the early circulation rate long maintained in the 20%-30% range. The vast majority of tokens are concentrated in the hands of the core founding team and early institutions.
2. Potential Impact Logic of Trust-Related Factors on WLFI Token Price
1. Indirect Transmission of Offshore Trust Tax New Regulations
The offshore trust pass-through taxation policy, effective August 2026, significantly increases the tax cost of cross-border asset transfers. Some offshore trust entities holding WLFI may adjust their holdings for compliance needs, causing minor short-term selling pressure. However, due to the high concentration of WLFI tokens, such selling pressure has very limited actual impact on the token price.
2. Chip Locking Effect of Family Trusts
The Trump family places large amounts of WLFI tokens into family trusts for long-term holding, which can greatly reduce selling pressure from circulating market supply, decrease the risk of large short-term dumps, provide implicit support for the token price, and prevent extreme irrational price crashes.
3. Market Sentiment Disturbance from Trust-Related Information
If rumors spread that large amounts of WLFI tokens are being transferred or reduced through trusts, it will directly trigger panic selling by retail investors, causing a rapid short-term price drop; conversely, if positive news emerges about long-term holdings locked through trusts, it will help push the token price into a phase of impulsive gains.
3. Core Observation Points for Future Trends
• The key focus is on the unlocking schedule of WLFI tokens held by the Trump family through trusts, which is a critical variable affecting the medium- to long-term token price trend. After ETH's weekly rise of 30%, it is stuck at 2460 — is this the second throttle, or a high-level turnover from "ETF single-day outflow"? $ETH
First, let's set the market context
On August 24, ETH fluctuated around $2451–2463, with a weekly gain of about 29%–30%. During the week, it surged from 1890 all the way to a high of 2524–2546 before pulling back. The Fear & Greed index surged to an extreme greed zone of 73–79. The 4-hour MACD has shown a death cross, and the daily RSI is around 66–72, typical of a "sharp rally followed by digestion."
This wave is not just a pure altcoin catch-up rally; it’s a combination of ETF, short squeeze, and supply tightening.
From August 17 to 21, the US spot ETH ETF had a weekly net inflow of about $697 million, the strongest single week since October 2025, with BlackRock ETHA taking the lion’s share; total AUM returned to around $14.3 billion, accounting for about 4.85% of ETH’s market cap.
On August 19, ETH surged 17.5% in a single day. During the same 24-hour period, ETH accounted for $265 million in total network liquidations, clearly showing shorts being forced out and followed by buying pressure pushing prices up.
Exchange reserves have dropped about 15% from early June to mid-August, with approximately 1.15 million ETH moved off centralized exchanges; staked ETH is about 41.7 million, accounting for one-third of the total supply, with BitMine alone locking up 5.81 million — the spot market available for dumping is much thinner than it appears.
$ETH $OKB surged today, but don't stand guard at the peak.
On August 24, OKX CEO Star announced two major highlights: a $1 billion X Layer ecosystem fund was launched, and Circle USDC + CCTP officially joined X Layer, opening the floodgates for stablecoin liquidity. This is a rare independent narrative among the six major tokens. Once the news broke, OKB instantly pulsed to $212.
But stay clear-headed—the all-time high of $239.91 set on August 21 still looms overhead. Afterward, the price once retraced to around $110 and fluctuated. Today's surge is a typical news-driven "spike," not a trend reversal. The cross-platform price gap is extremely exaggerated (OKX converter shows about $110, while the news-driven price reached $212), highlighting the intensity of the bulls and bears battle.
Looking at the solid fundamentals: Messari data shows that since the 2021 bull market peak, only 22 tokens outperformed BTC, and OKB is the only one maintaining a lead over its peak from that year. The total supply is capped at 21 million (with 65.25 million already burned) + ICE strategic investment (valued at $25 billion), so the foundation is indeed solid.
However, the correction structure after the $239 high is not yet complete. Today's rally is a pulse-like stress reaction with questionable sustainability. Whether the $1 billion fund can truly translate into on-chain activity is the key variable; slogans alone can't support a second leg.
Comparatively, OKB uniquely enjoys a triple narrative of "deflation + ecosystem + compliance" among the six major tokens, making its scarcity undeniable. But the short-term price has already been pushed to a high by positive news. Buying in now is tantamount to carrying the news-driven rally. Wait for a pullback, then talk about conviction.
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战
A brief chat about gold~
Gold has risen above $4650, hitting a three-month high, with New York futures touching $4700 intraday, and domestic gold futures surging 2.86% to break above 1000 yuan again. Four days ago, gold prices were still hovering around 4500; this $150 acceleration is entirely driven by safe-haven funds.
US Treasuries are now being questioned for their "risk-free" status. Last week, Bassett attempted a "Treasury version of twist operation" to suppress long-term yields, but it only worked for a day. Long-term bond yields rebounded, with the 30-year yield stuck above 5.2%. The market is starting to worry that administrative measures distort pricing, ultimately eroding the dollar's credit. As a result, capital is voting with its feet: selling US Treasuries and buying gold. Even Asia has shifted from "capital flowing back to Europe and the US during crises" to becoming a "local safe-haven pool," shaking the dollar's traditional strongholds.
Gold and bonds are competing for the same "safe-haven" label, and this time the competition is fierce. Bonds remain bonds, but the definition of "safety" is being rewritten. $XAU gold leads the reversal, $BTC is replicating a similar rhythm
Recently, gold has completed a full bottoming and rebound trend, shifting from weak to strong, while Bitcoin's current market structure is slowly replicating gold's recovery path.
Influenced by the liquidity easing from U.S. Treasury repurchase operations, the correlation between gold and BTC is strengthening, with both gradually moving in an inverse pattern to the U.S. dollar. Their safe-haven and inflation-hedging attributes are being recognized by the market simultaneously.
Gold continues to hit new highs after stabilizing above 4600, while BTC opts for high-level sideways consolidation to digest previous large gains, which is a very healthy accumulation adjustment.
Currently, the market focus continues to rise, and without sudden negative news, a deep short-term drop is unlikely.
The overall rhythm going forward is expected to be volatile with upward surges, with the biggest variable in the market still depending on external news disturbances.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#黄金突破4600美元，债券避险地位受挑战 At 2 a.m. Beijing time on August 25, U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent officially announced the "harshest sanctions in history" on Iran. Bescent stated that this is the largest coordinated economic isolation operation in human history, with the core being to force all countries and companies worldwide to take sides between the U.S. and Iran. The sanctions focus on three types of economic and trade activities: purchasing Iranian oil, transferring remittances to Iran, and transshipping Iranian crude oil by sea. Any country or company continuing to do business with Iran will face secondary sanctions from the United States. Rezai, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that if the U.S. continues its economic war, Iran will block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and stated that not a drop of oil will be exported through the Strait of Hormuz or even the Persian Gulf region. Any country participating in or supporting the U.S. economic war against Iran will be regarded as an enemy by Iran. This sanction was announced by Trump on August 19, when he stated that Iran would be launched as "the most devastating economic action ever against the country." U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent soon confirmed the details, and the specific measures will be officially announced on August 24-25. Now, with the strictest sanctions about to be lifted, short-term uncertainty has basically disappeared. Interestingly, some funds have re-entered the market. So even if the specific operation is announced at 2 PM tonight, the impact on BTC prices should be limited. And oil prices are the real hidden danger. Brent crude has now reached $92 per barrel, and Iranian oil exports have plummeted from 2 million barrels before the war to 287,000 barrels. IfNVIDIA reported earnings after the market close on the 26th, with expected revenue of 92 billion and EPS of 2.09. Last quarter they hit 81.6 billion; whether they can beat expectations again, the whole market is watching.
AI has been burning money for nearly two years, and it's time to settle the accounts. Cloud providers are aggressively spending capital this year—Google 200 billion, Amazon 220 billion, Meta 130 to 145 billion.
When will the money be made back? Morgan Stanley says AI's ROIC in the inference era can reach 25%-50%, but the reality is a severe imbalance between input and output. Tencent's free cash flow turned negative for the first time, Alibaba's net profit plummeted by over 70%, and no company dares to say they've closed the loop successfully.
However, storage in the AI chain is even more profitable than NVIDIA. SK Hynix's Q2 operating margin reached 76%, with an HBM market share of 58%, and revenue exceeded 100 trillion Korean won in the first half. Micron's FQ3 revenue increased by 346% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 84.6%. This year, all HBM capacity is sold out, and over 60% of next year's capacity is already locked in. SanDisk is even more impressive, with Q4 revenue up 372% year-over-year, data center revenue surging 13 times, holding 8 long-term orders guaranteeing at least 93.9 billion, and announcing a 14 billion buyback.
Risks also exist. Jensen Huang said Rubin Ultra memory was cut in half, and Hynix's stock plunged 19% that day. SanDisk's Q4 sequential growth of two-thirds relied on price increases, and next quarter's guidance is below the market's very high expectations, raising doubts about whether the price hike momentum can be sustained. The 6% HBM supply gap is real, and customer order cuts are also a genuine concern.
AI returns have entered the verification period: the boasting is over, it's time to talk numbers
#财报观察员：英伟达领衔，AI回报进入验证期 $BTC and $ETH: A New Market Phase
From the intense volatility over the past week, $BTC and $ETH may indeed have entered a new phase driven by macro liquidity and regulatory expectations. In the short term, market sentiment has shifted from extreme fear to greed, but the medium- to long-term logic has fundamentally changed.
This is reflected in three specific aspects:
📈 Core Drivers: From "Narrative Speculation" to "Policy Market"
The trigger for this surge is very clear, entirely ignited by the shift in U.S. macro policy:
· Liquidity Valve Loosened: The U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of long-term bond repurchases to $4 billion, interpreted by the market as a signal to start "fiat depreciation trades."
· Regulatory Shackles Loosened: Trump pushed the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," with $SEC and $CFTC successively releasing compliance pathway signals, clearing the biggest market uncertainty.
📊 Capital Transmission: Classic "$BTC Sets the Stage, $ETH Performs"
Capital flows perfectly replicate the typical bull market transmission path, with $ETF becoming the absolute indicator:
· Massive $ETF Inflows: Last week, U.S. $BTC and $ETH spot $ETF net inflows totaled $2.6 billion, hitting a multi-month high.
· $ETH Catch-Up Rally: After $BTC rose over 26% in a single week, $ETH launched a violent catch-up rally with a weekly gain close to 30%, and exchange $ETH supply dropped 15% within the month, showing chips are accelerating from selling to staking lock-up.
⚠️ Short-Term Battle: The Long-Short Decisive Battle at the $80,000 Level
Although the medium- to long-term bottom seems established, short-term risks cannot be ignored:
· Technical Overbought: $BTC is approaching the $80,000 psychological level, also facing strong resistance between $80,600 and $82,850, likely entering a high-level consolidation in the short term.
· Divergent Expert Views: Some analysts are 90% certain the bear market is over and bullish on $ETH outperforming $BTC, but others point out this is only a rebound wave with pullback risks. #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓 $SOL entered Devnet at 200ms, mainnet account is still empty
Checked RPC at 17:05 on August 24: Devnet 200ms account activated at 14:53, average of 5 samples over 60 seconds is about 216ms/slot.
The same account on mainnet is still null. SIMD-0525 is progressing in 4 tiers; testnet speedup does not mean mainnet is twice as fast.
I will only consider it live if the mainnet account appears and consecutive samples are close to 200ms.
Would you count testnet activation as going live, or wait for the mainnet account to appear? Why?
Source: SIMD-0525, Solana RPC (17:05).
Crypto assets are high risk; this article does not constitute investment advice and is purely personal opinion.
#OKXPlanet #SOL #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
Since taking office as Fed Chair in May, Waller has systematically overturned his predecessor's communication paradigm—significantly shortening policy statements, eliminating explicit forward guidance, and no longer submitting individual interest rate dot plot forecasts. After the July FOMC meeting, he neither deeply analyzed the economic situation nor provided forward guidance on rates, which the market interpreted as a lack of determination to control inflation, causing long-term bond yields to rise to a twenty-year high.
Meanwhile, U.S. inflation has remained above the 2% target for over five consecutive years, public debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the 30-year Treasury yield once rose to 5.34%—the highest since 2007. A survey by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business shows that nearly 60% of economists believe the Fed will take longer than expected to achieve its inflation target, and over 60% of respondents think Waller's communication strategy has had an "extremely significant or quite substantial" upward effect on long-term Treasury yields.
Against this backdrop, market expectations for Waller's Friday speech are unprecedentedly focused: can he provide a clear policy path?
It is unlikely that Waller will provide explicit policy path guidance from September to December at Jackson Hole.
The speech is scheduled for 10:00 AM Eastern Time on August 28 (Friday) (10:00 PM Beijing Time on August 28). Regardless of the outcome, this will be a critical moment to test whether the "Waller-style Fed" can stand firm under pressure. What Basent did last time was digested by the market in less than a day.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced doubling the long-term Treasury buyback scale from 2 billion to 4 billion, the 30-year Treasury yield briefly fell then returned to a high level, basically flat for the week.
Basent himself said the market "overreacted a bit."
As a result, the dollar fell nearly 1% that week, gold surged to $4600, and Bitcoin rose more than 25% in a single week.
Basent failed to suppress long bonds; instead, he ignited the "currency depreciation trade" in gold and Bitcoin. The market voted with money—the dollar fell, gold rose, Bitcoin rose.
Now the baton has passed to Wash.
He is scheduled to speak this Friday at Jackson Hole. Since taking office in May, Wash has hardly given any clear forward guidance, and the market is extremely sensitive to what he says.
HSBC interest rate strategists put it bluntly—if Wash can provide a qualitative judgment on potential inflation pressures, it would be enough to reduce uncertainty. If it’s the same old approach, long-end selling will only intensify.
One is adjusting the debt maturity structure, the other is setting inflation expectations. The Treasury’s operation only lasted a day; next, we look to the Federal Reserve. $ETH Bitcoin consolidated near the $77,000 high over the weekend, briefly dipping below $77,000 early Monday before rebounding above $78,000.
It has risen about 23% over the past week, hitting an intraday high of $79,500 on Friday, marking the best weekly performance since March 2023.
Coinage founder Zack Guzman offered an assessment: Bitcoin "has established itself as a depreciating trade," with this rally mainly driven by direct purchases rather than leverage.
Data supports this view—Bitcoin's 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 index plummeted from about 0.43 last Friday to near zero, while its correlation with gold climbed above 0.5.
This is the seventh weekly occurrence since 2015 of the combination "stocks down, gold up, dollar down, Bitcoin surging," and the only time it happened alongside a rise in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields.
The bond market almost fully absorbed Wednesday's 9 basis point drop in Treasury yields, but Bitcoin and gold did not pull back—Bitcoin rose over 10% again on Friday, and gold gained another 2%. $ETH $BTC ETH’s stronger 24-hour gain while BTC holds near $77.5K looks more like selective rotation than a broad risk-on breakout. A test of $2,500 matters, but confirmation requires ETH to keep outperforming without BTC losing its footing. Macro conditions still argue for restraint. Treasury buyback signals may support liquidity at the margin, while renewed Iran oil risk could revive inflation pressure. For now, I would treat crypto strength as constructive but tactical, not a clean regime shift.#BTCETF#SPCX 319 million shares unlocked this week, can the selling pressure be absorbed?
The leader has something to say
Another batch of SPCX shares is unlocked, with 319 million shares becoming tradable. This is the second wave after the 912 million shares unlocked on August 6.
But this time is different from last time. The last time was the first batch unlocked after the IPO, the most panic-stricken moment in the market. The result was that the price dropped as expected, but SPCX rose from 105 to 133, proving that the bottom support was strong enough.
This time the scale is much smaller, 319 million shares, less than one-third of the first batch. The previous round didn’t crash the price, so this round is even less likely to. Moreover, SPCX rose from 110 to above 150, now falling back to around 135, still much higher than the IPO price, indicating that the fundamental support logic is stronger than the unlocking pressure.
Institutional holdings are tightly locked. Harvard’s holdings account for 51.8% of the 13F portfolio, Nvidia holds 21 billion, Alphabet, Fidelity, and BlackRock are all on the main holders list. These top institutions are not here for short-term speculation; the higher the lock-up ratio, the more limited the actual circulating selling pressure.
I started accumulating SPCX from 110 gradually, and the profits are quite substantial. The unlocking window is a short-term disturbance, not a trend reversal. I will keep my base position, neither adding nor reducing, and wait for the unlocking sentiment to be fully digested. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
The above analysis is time-sensitive, orders must have stop-loss set, good luck.$OKB CEO Star announced the launch of a $1 billion X Layer ecosystem fund to support global developers in building applications on-chain. On the same day, Circle's native USDC and the cross-chain protocol CCTP officially went live on X Layer.
These two events should be viewed together. The ecosystem fund is the ammunition, and native USDC is the infrastructure. Previously, X Layer used a cross-chain version of USDC, not officially issued by Circle, so liquidity was naturally discounted. Now with official integration, the stablecoin channel is fully opened. A DeFi developer said: official USDC integration is more substantial than signing ten small project partnerships.
The transmission logic for OKB is very clear: X Layer ecosystem expansion → increased on-chain Gas consumption → rising demand for OKB as the Gas token. Coupled with exchange staking, buyback, and burn, the deflationary loop is tightening.
Conclusion: bullish in the mid-term. The progress of the $1 billion fund implementation is a key observation indicator. X Layer TVL breaking through 200 million is a signal to increase positions. Buy OKB in batches below $105.
#特朗普披露千笔证券交易，透明度受关注