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OKX Wallet has put X Layer's RWA liquidity incentives to the forefront: from August 24, 15:00 to September 7, 15:00 (UTC+8), they will provide liquidity to designated Uniswap pools on X Layer, with a reward pool of $220,000 according to the rules. This is worth discussing, not because of the word "giving money," but because it straightforwardly states the direction X Layer wants to promote recently: RWA, stablecoins, and on-chain trading depth. The official page clearly states that this time 53 Uniswap V3 qualified pools are covered, including 50 xStocks RWA-related pools and 3 BTC, ETH, and SOL pools. The reward pool consists of 70,000 USDC and 150,000 USDG. The distribution method isn't just random clicking, but about your LP's position accounting for a share of all participants' fee earnings. Positions must be added and maintained valid after the event starts, and the final test is how much effective liquidity you actually provide. This is not the same as a regular check-in airdrop. Many people's first reaction when seeing a reward pool is to calculate APY and then rush in. But Uniswap V3's LP is not essentially a fixed deposit, especially when pairing RWA assets with stablecoins, where price range, trading activity, and one-sided exposure all affect itQCP said this week's focus shifts to three major macro variables. My first reaction wasn't to guess which three, but to ask: what was that 20% last week? Only after the rise do they say to watch macro — is this trading ahead of time, or has it already been fully priced in?
The Ministry of Finance's repurchase doubling, ETF funds coming in, these are all events that have already happened, so it's fine to use them to explain the past week's performance. But then immediately shifting the focus to macro data that hasn't been released yet feels off to me. This is looking for reasons for the next market move, and the reasons are for things that haven't happened yet.
If macro really dictated direction, last week shouldn't have gone up so smoothly. Now bringing up macro feels like adding a pass after the rise.
I'll step back for now. I don't buy this explanation. Brothers, the bull is back! BTC touched the 80,000 mark. Is this rebound a reversal or just a buildup?
Brothers, the bull is back! In August, BTC rose from a low of $64,000 to a high of $79,400, with a single-week maximum increase of over 24%. The total liquidation of shorts across the network exceeded $2.7 billion, sweeping away much of the pessimism that had clouded the market in the first half of the year. The community is once again buzzing with talk of a "bull market restart." But amidst the excitement, the real money market must be examined for its essence: Is this wave truly the start of a trend reversal bull market, or just a corrective rebound after overselling? The 80,000 mark has been tested for a week without holding firm—does this mean the rise is stalling or is it a consolidation and shakeout? We use solid data to clarify the current real situation.
The core driving force behind this rise is a triple resonance of macro expectation recovery + ETF capital replenishment + short squeeze, not a market emerging out of nowhere. On the macro level, U.S. core inflation in July fell more than expected, pushing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in Q4 from 40% to 68%. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem, leading to a collective valuation recovery in risk assets. On the capital side, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion in a single week, hitting a new high for the year and nearly 10 months. BlackRock’s single product contributed over 60% of this increase, with top institutions putting real money in to support the bottom. On the trading side, a large number of short positions accumulated near $60,000 were liquidated, triggering a chain reaction of forced buy orders that further amplified the upward momentum, creating a classic short squeeze scenario.
But to be honest: this is essentially a recovery rally, not a full-scale bull market with new capital flooding in. Looking at a longer timeline, since 2026, BTC spot ETFs have still seen a net outflow of about $2.9 billion. This week’s massive inflow looks more like a replenishment to cover the continuous outflows in the first half of the year, rather than a trend reversal driven by large-scale new capital entering. Moreover, funds are highly concentrated in top institutional products. Grayscale GBTC is still undergoing continuous redemptions. Essentially, this is a shift of existing chips from short-term investors to long-term institutions, not a broad-based industry-wide rally. Institutional funds are still in a tentative allocation phase, not yet fully all in.
The current inability to break through the $80,000 mark is mainly due to three layers of selling pressure stacking at the high level, creating precise suppression. The first layer is the concentrated release of historical trapped positions. The $78,000–$82,000 range is a dense chip zone formed at the end of 2025. Many retail investors bought at this level and got trapped. Now, as the price approaches, they release selling pressure, which is the most direct reason for the quick pullbacks near $79,000. The second layer is miners’ structural liquidation. After the price returned above $70,000, mining companies moved from loss to profit zones. The closer to $80,000, the thicker the marginal profit. Recently, miners’ daily transfers to exchanges have tripled compared to June lows, representing continuous and stable selling pressure. The third layer is existing funds distributing at highs. Previously, a whale address sold over 7,700 BTC in three days, precisely at the peak. Grayscale also steadily releases redemption pressure weekly, creating a turnover pattern between inflows and outflows.
Fortunately, the bottom support remains solid with no signs of deterioration. On-chain data shows that in the past two weeks, over 13,000 BTC have been net withdrawn from exchanges. Large holders and institutions continue moving coins to cold storage for locking. The proportion of chips controlled by long-term holders has reached a new high since December 2023, indicating strong stability of underlying chips and narrowing the downside from the supply side. The $75,000 level is the core cost zone for institutional accumulation this round. Every dip to this level sees clear buying support, making it a key short-term strength/weakness dividing line.
The core short-term variable is the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the month, which is also the debut of the new Fed Chair, Powell. Under the baseline scenario, a neutral and ambiguous speech will likely keep BTC oscillating between $75,000 and $81,000, digesting selling pressure and raising holding costs over 2-3 weeks. Under an optimistic scenario, a dovish signal hinting at a Q4 rate cut could help break through the $80,000 mark and test the $82,000–$83,000 chip gap zone. Under a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance could pull back to $72,000–$73,000, but deep drops are unlikely due to institutional bottom support.
In the medium term, if the Fed officially starts a rate cut cycle in September and ETFs maintain a weekly net inflow pace above $1 billion, Q4 could challenge the previous high near $88,000. If either condition is missing, the market will enter a wide-range consolidation. So brothers, the bull is truly warming up, but it’s not yet time for a full-blown rally. Hold your core positions firmly, accumulate in batches near $75,000 on dips, avoid blindly chasing highs or shorting lightly, and patiently wait for policy confirmation. Existing sell pressure influences future market liquidity
The reason this sell-off has attracted significant market attention is due to its stark contrast with the public statements made by related parties. Previously, the WLFI project associated with the Trump family had loudly announced plans to massively increase holdings of TRUMP tokens; however, the core team is currently showing continuous actions of offloading inventory into the market.
This contradictory combination of "publicly releasing positive claims of buying while quietly distributing chips on the market" greatly intensifies speculation among market funds about the issuer's true intentions. Since the market valuation of meme coins heavily depends on emotional consensus and the issuer's inventory management constraints, once the issuer initiates a continuous sell-off mode, it will inevitably cause a severe liquidity drain on the micro market.
The current core market contention focuses on the team's inventory of 3,837,000 tokens stored in the OKX account. If this nearly ten million dollar market value of chips is dumped entirely into the secondary market, it will impose a significant downward pressure on TRUMP's spot price and investor sentiment in the short term. The core conclusion of today's market is: **Risk appetite continues to diverge rather than weaken across the board.** Overnight, the US expanded secondary sanctions against Iran as a deterrent, but oil prices noticeably fell, and long-term US Treasury yields also slightly declined, which is generally favorable for risk assets; the real drag on the market was tech stocks, especially the chip sector, which saw significant reductions ahead of Nvidia's earnings report. Meanwhile, the US dollar rebounded from a three-month low, and BTC remains in the high range following its recent surge. Today's market focus shifts to US consumer confidence, new home sales, and more importantly this week, PCE, Nvidia's earnings, and Jackson Hole. 1. What happened overnight? 1. US stocks showed clear divergence: tech stocks fell, while the Dow rose against the trend. Facts: On August 24, US stock market close: Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.26% to 53,417.16; S&P 500 fell 0.28% to 7,652.86; Nasdaq Composite fell 0.76% to 25,980.19. The tech sector was the main drag. Nvidia fell 2.9%, Micron fell 5.8%, Broadcom fell 2.6%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was under overall pressure. Meanwhile, the financial sector performed relatively well, with JPMorgan up 1.4% and Visa up 3%, helping the Dow maintain gains. Market reaction: This was not a broad risk asset sell-off but more like a deliberate reduction of exposure to tech and AI sectors. One reason is that Nvidia will report earnings this weekBTC and ETH rise, altcoins remain differentiated
$BTC reached $79.5K, $ETH exceeded $2.5K, but $H, $LAB, $KAITO, $BEAT, and $SNDK remain weak. Capital continues to favor large-cap assets, while altcoins face liquidity shortages, weakened spot demand, and supply pressure on specific tokens. BTC and ETH ETFs attracted about $2.6 billion in weekly inflows, reinforcing preference for market leaders. The current situation shows capital is rotating selectively rather than a broad altcoin season.In the previous six articles, we discussed the principles, technologies, and trends of hosting. But when it comes to practical operations, the question many readers are most puzzled by is still this question: Should I manage it myself, or put it on an exchange? In this article, we set aside technical jargon and won't talk about ideals, but will focus on a practical judgment—what kind of person is suited to custody a wallet? If you meet most of the following criteria, a custodial wallet is most likely your better choice. Rule 1: Your amount of money is not large. This may sound counterintuitive—many people think, "It doesn't matter if you have little money, you can put it anywhere." But looking at it from another angle: is it worth spending 5,000 yuan on a hardware wallet for 50,000 yuan in assets, and spending a week researching private key management, firmware verification, and multi-signature? Whether it's worth it is a mathematical question. Professional self-custody solutions come with costs—hardware wallets cost hundreds to thousands of yuan, mnemonic templates cost tens to hundreds of yuan, learning time costs and psychological burdens during operation. If these costs account for a proportion of your assets beyond what you can accept, custodial wallets are a more rational choice. Additionally, mainstream exchanges have certain safeguard mechanisms for retail assets. Take Binance as an example: the SAFU fund provides extra protection for users in extreme situations. While it may not cover every scenario, it is already an important safety net for small and medium funds. Rule 2: You're not familiar with the technology. Be honest with yourself: Do you understand what "firmware signature verification" means? Do you know how to distinguish between real wallets and fake wallets? Do you carefully check the number of characters before each transfer? One detail is quite worth noting:
The trading volume surged to 123.93 billion, expanding 40.86% in 24 hours, but the market did not experience a true broad rally.
There are 123 assets rising and 263 falling, with the declines mainly concentrated between -2% and -4%.
This indicates that the current market is more like capital accelerating turnover rather than a full-scale long.
Many people see the surge in trading volume and their first reaction is "the market is about to take off." But I tend to be more cautious—volume expansion is good, but if most coins can't hold up, it means capital is still picking directions.
What’s truly worth watching next is not whether the trading volume can continue to hit new highs, but whether the number of declining assets can significantly shrink and whether strong coins can start to spread.
Volume is there, but the profit-making effect hasn’t kept up,
this kind of market is the easiest to trap people.
Watch first, don’t rush in. $BTC $XAU
First, take a look at this chart—
The expansion of U.S. debt has no necessary connection with the previous president's portrait. Whoever replaces him probably won't be able to fill the huge U.S. debt hole, let alone someone like Trump who actively digs it deeper!
In the past, the traditional textbook logic was:
Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset; the higher the real interest rate on U.S. debt, the less worthwhile it is to hold gold, so gold prices fall;
When interest rates fall, gold prices rise.
Now the logic has changed:
When debt reaches a certain level,
the market is no longer just trading "interest rates",
but the credit risk of the dollar and U.S. debt.
———Central banks around the world increase gold purchases and reduce U.S. debt holdings.
Now, add four more words to this sentence:
———Central banks around the world increase gold purchases, increase Bitcoin holdings, and reduce U.S. debt holdings. #BTC fluctuates after a surge, ETF funds continue to flow in
#ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500
Breaking down the driving forces behind this rally: After the short squeeze bonus fades, how much buying power remains in the market?
At the early stage of the rally, a large part of the upward momentum came from short squeeze pressure. Prices rose rapidly, causing a large number of short contracts to liquidate. The buy orders generated from these liquidations further pushed prices higher, creating a positive feedback loop. This short squeeze rally has strong explosive power, but it is a consumptive type of upward momentum. Once a large number of short positions are cleared from the market, the passive buying from liquidations disappears. For the rally to continue pushing to new highs, it must switch to incremental spot funds entering the market to take over. Currently, at the high level phase, more of the activity is contract leverage funds competing with each other, while spot fund inflows have noticeably weakened. Without continuous inflows of spot funds, relying solely on contract leverage to drive the rally will significantly reduce the quality of the upward movement and increase volatility.The U.S. Treasury Department has recently indeed sent a signal worth noting: it is considering using approximately $950 billion from the Treasury General Account (TGA) to provide funding support for further expanding U.S. Treasury repurchase operations. At the same time, the Treasury has already doubled the scale of some Treasury repurchase operations compared to previous levels. If large-scale use of TGA funds for Treasury repurchases continues, it could improve liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market, ease pressure on long-term yields, and provide certain macro liquidity benefits to risk assets such as gold, stocks, and BTC. What is truly noteworthy is that the U.S. Treasury is taking a more proactive approach in managing the Treasury market and financial liquidity. A signal that is easy to overlook but closely related to this round of AI narrative: Meta is launching a consumer-facing AI assistant, with premium subscriptions reportedly costing up to $199.99 per month; almost simultaneously, Nvidia is negotiating to invest in Perplexity, aiming for a valuation of 30 billion. To translate—after burning money for years, AI giants are starting to figure out how to monetize their investments and deliver results. This main storyline is now driving the sentiment across the entire risk market, and $BTC is no exception. So Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday is the real switch for this week: the focus isn't on EPS but whether the AI capex story can still hold up. Don't just stare at the coin's K-line; look up to see where the bigger trend is heading. Not going against the cycle is the most important lesson I learned from the last round. Without a super cycle, don't blindly trust the big players. Every round has several big players sacrificed. After reviewing these past few days, the current bear market is basically following the same pattern as the previous bear market. Last cycle (May 2022): $30,000 was considered the iron base of the supercycle at the time, as it was the starting point after the May 19 disaster in 2021 and supported the weekly moving average at 120. What left a particularly deep impression was that when it broke below $30,000, the fear index was already below 10, and many bottom-fishing funds believed the price couldn't fall or that a rebound was coming. Current Cycle (February 2026): $80,000, once a strong support, has now become a strong weekly resistance level at MA120. $80,000 is also the cost price for Bitcoin mining companies. The current $76,000 is like a brief struggle after the previous drop below $30,000. The market is likely to see another move that completely shatters confidence, such as hitting the previous cycle's top of 69,000. If it falls below $70,000, it will trigger larger stop-loss orders and liquidation orders, possibly surpassing the massive volume bar from November 2025. Without extreme panic, rebounds often only attract bulls. During cycles, never let emotions lead you astray; in extreme trend markets, sentiment indicators can become distorted. A panic index of 10 indicates that retail investors have lost hope, but the main players may still be using this despair for one last squat. The trend line is more direct than any indicator, onlyA reminder: this rally from 60,000 to 78,000 is fueled by fiscal liquidity, not a fundamental reversal. On the Besent side, they are focusing on the general fiscal account approaching 1 trillion USD, with the US Treasury repo operation window locked on September 9 — the market is trading ahead on the expectation of "liquidity injection." I don't oppose riding the liquidity wave, but don't mistake a liquidity-driven rally as a reason to go all-in: where the money comes from and when it will be withdrawn is far more important than how the candlesticks look. At the table, you need to first figure out whose money is backing the pot to know if this hand is worth playing. At $BTC's current position, ask yourself if you're holding a trend or just emotions. AI data centers are driving the NAND flash memory boom, with stock prices having surged sharply earlier and now entering a high-level digestion phase, showing significantly increased volatility.
In the short term, stock prices are in a profit-taking phase; although large long-term contract orders support performance, the market has already priced in optimistic expectations, making positive news easy to realize and then decline.
Holding key support levels still offers opportunities for rebound speculation; once a decisive breakdown occurs, a deeper pullback will begin.
From a mid- to long-term perspective, the biggest risk is the release of new production capacity in 2027-2028. Storage is a strongly cyclical industry, and the boom will not last forever.
💡 Trading reminder
Do not chase highs; heavy speculative positions are strictly prohibited. Manage position sizes carefully, set stop losses, and closely monitor flash memory prices and capital expenditure changes of major manufacturers. Spot gold has again touched 4670, continuously hitting historical highs, and the world's largest gold ETF continued to increase its holdings yesterday. On one side, devaluation trades and safe-haven funds are pouring into gold, while on the other side, $BTC remains in a high-level overbought consolidation, not keeping up with this wave. People who constantly talk about "digital gold" should think: when it really comes to fiat currency devaluation and a bunch of geopolitical risks, the money fleeing to safe assets first goes into gold, not crypto. This is not to say BTC is no good, but a reminder not to mix the two logics—this wave of rising crypto prices is driven by liquidity and short squeezes, not by safe-haven funds coming in to support the bottom. Understanding what is driving it is how you roughly know when it might stop.This Friday (August 28), Kevin Walsh's "debut" as the new Federal Reserve Chair at Jackson Hole is indeed the biggest variable in the current global capital markets. Based on historical patterns and Walsh's own policy stance, this meeting will almost certainly trigger intense volatility. But whether it marks the "start of a bull market" or a "plunge" depends not on the meeting itself, but on Walsh's statements regarding the "inflation targeting framework." #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
Walsh's "hawkish tone" is the greatest risk (trigger for a plunge): Walsh is a typical "inflation hawk" who has strongly criticized the aftermath of QE (quantitative easing). If he emphasizes on Friday that "a recession must be used to cool inflation" or mentions "raising the long-term interest rate center," the market will directly price in continued tightening. Considering that current U.S. stock valuations remain at historically high levels, this is highly likely to trigger a "Walsh plunge," with tech growth stocks hit first.
The only possible $BTC "bull market start" signal is very unlikely: Unless Walsh unexpectedly pivots, explicitly acknowledges that "real interest rates are too high and harming the economy," and releases strong forward guidance for "preventive rate cuts" or "ending quantitative tightening (QT)." But this contradicts his past stance and is unlikely; if it happens, the dollar will plummet, gold and emerging markets will surge, and the third wave of the bull market will begin.
The true meaning of historical experience: Jackson Hole is scary because the market is betting on "expectation gaps." Currently, the market prices Walsh as "neutral to hawkish," so as long as his wording is not harsher than the market's worst expectations (such as implying rate hikes), the decline is controllable The recent market rhythm is actually quite intriguing. $BTC and $ETH are trading sideways at high levels, neither continuing to surge nor immediately turning downward. Some think this is a sluggish rally, but another interpretation is that it's more like a deliberate "bullish inducement" posture, gradually lowering the guard. From the perspective of position structure, when the price is around 64,000, the bears are most concentrated, and most people feel the price can't rise. But when the price gradually approaches 80,000, it's actually the period when bullish sentiment is strongest. This stark contrast often shows that market sentiment is always half a beat behind, and the real profits are always the few who stay ahead of sentiment. A detail worth noting is BNB's Smart Money data. Since the price entered a sideways range, long-term long positions have consistently been more than three times the short positions. What does this indicate? It shows that beneath the surface of volatility, some funds have been patiently accumulating directional positions rather than being swept up and down by short-term ups and downs. This structural tilt often explains the issue more clearly than one or two candlesticks. Many times, we tend to attribute price movements to technical patterns or sudden news, but what truly determines the outcome is the distribution of positions and public sentiment. Don't go where there are many people; when the ship is heavy, it sinks faster. This principle has almost become an iron law in the crypto market. When everyone is crowded on the same side, the market's scales tend to tip in the opposite direction. $SOL's current performance is also worth paying attention to; it hasn't kept up比特币在快速拉升触及78800美元附近后，回落到77000美元区间震荡，整体仍维持在高位运行。这种冲高后的整理，并没有破坏近期的强势格局，更多是市场在消化前期涨幅。从资金面看，上周ETF净流入总额约为26亿美元，其中比特币贡献了19亿，以太坊也有6.97亿入账，创下自去年10月以来单周最强劲的流入纪录。机构在77000美元上方持续承接，这对市场信心是较为实在的支撑。 这轮上涨的节奏，其实已经出现了一些微妙变化。早期主要由现货买入推动，而随着价格走高，部分空头头寸开始被动回补，形成了多空力量共振的格局。也就是说，这波行情不再是单纯的逼空，而是逐步向趋势修复过渡。价格在急涨之后进入高位横盘，是市场从单边情绪转向多空博弈的正常过程，不必过度解读为见顶信号。 眼下77000美元这个位置，是买卖双方争夺的关键区域。如果价格能在此处稳住，上行结构依然完好；一旦有效跌破75000美元，则意味着短期调整的力度会比预期更深，需要重新评估节奏。目前来看，市场更倾向于在高位反复换手，而不是立刻选择方向。 接下来的核心变量，依然是ETF资金能否持续消化高位获利盘。只要增量资金保持稳定流入，市场就有能力把逼空行#BTC fluctuates after a surge, with continuous inflows into ETFs
#ETH fluctuates after reaching $2500
Don't just focus on the crypto market candlesticks; the US dollar and US Treasury yields will limit Bitcoin's upside ceiling. Bitcoin is a highly elastic global risk asset, and its movement cannot escape the constraints of the macro environment. When real US Treasury yields rise and the US dollar index strengthens, global risk appetite cools down, and capital prefers to flow into safe-haven assets. Even if the cryptocurrency candlestick patterns look good, the upward space will be suppressed. Conversely, when Treasury yields fall and the dollar weakens, the market liquidity environment loosens, which is more favorable for risk assets to continue rising. Macro indicators may not determine intraday price fluctuations but will set the upper limit and duration of a market cycle. When reviewing Bitcoin's market trends, it is essential to simultaneously monitor the movements of the US dollar and US Treasuries. If you only look at crypto charts behind closed doors, it is easy to overlook potential risks coming from external markets.If BTC really has passed the bottom area, then it will no longer be the sole core asset in the future.
This week, BTC's highest price reached around 80,000. If this round's 57,800 is truly the bottom, the drop from the peak is about 54%. If it reverses from now on, the next cycle likely won't see much growth. Even if it reaches 150,000, that's basically just a 2x return. I don't really believe there will be a 5x return in 2-3 years.
My personal thought is, if BTC really behaves like this this round, expectations for BTC need to be significantly lowered. It might become more like a large-cap asset similar to a crypto index.
If that's the case, then more attention should be paid to other assets. BTC might no longer be one of the high-growth assets, and this is what I need to start preparing for.
The above is just one possibility. I don't know if it will become reality, but we need to be prepared for it.
I personally did not get on board during this rise because my system did not signal me to buy. Since I also have a BTC bottom-fishing panel, my panel has been indicating a slightly undervalued position. Neither time, drop percentage, nor data triggered my system.
My system's strategy is to start buying when the panel score exceeds 60, but it only reached 59 at its highest. So far, no buy signal has been triggered.
Also, my judgment on the ma120 is that only a breakout after a long sideways movement in the bottom area or a breakdown after sideways movement in the top area can be considered a reference strategy.
I initially wondered why I didn't buy when ma120 broke out, but my current answer is that precisely because I followed my own strategy, I didn't buy.
However, I really didn't consider the possibility of a direct bull market at this time, which is an area where my strategy can improve.
The reason I set 60 points as the buy threshold is not arbitrary. Based on the last cycle, it would have been around 20,000 to start buying.
Although I do feel a bit afraid of missing out, I rationally believe that based on the data, there is still a chance my system's alert will be triggered. It's just that this time I didn't expect a direct surge.
Currently, I think there are roughly a few possible scenarios:
1: This time is a true reversal.
2: This time is a bear market rebound.
3: A completely unexpected market breaking the 4-year cycle, turning into a model similar to the US stock market.
From the perspective of time, data, and cycle, it doesn't really look like a reversal now, but from the current facts and technicals, it does look like a reversal. This is the contradictory part.
To be honest, I haven't figured out a specific strategy yet, but the general direction is to prepare countermeasures for various situations and always assume I might be wrong, because the market is always right. Being prepared with countermeasures is the most important.I strongly agree with Brother Murphy's on-chain analysis, which is also similar to my previous forecast for Bitcoin's future trend.
Combining the on-chain chip distribution with the current market situation, let me share why I also expect a healthy correction wave of $68,000–$70,000 next:
1️⃣ Underlying chips loosen, upward momentum slows down
The largest chip peak at $63,000 dropped from 1.22 million to 985,000, indicating that profit-taking from low-level accumulation has begun to exit. As the rule goes: "Once chips loosen, prices often consolidate or even correct," which is a sign of increasing resistance to the rise.
2️⃣ Intense turnover at high levels, pressure on the receiving funds
When it surged to $77,000–$78,000, the market triggered the strongest profit-taking in nearly 6 months. Although 320,000 BTC were absorbed between $76,000–$77,000 within just 3 days and the price temporarily held, large-scale turnover at high levels inevitably requires time to digest the volatility.
3️⃣ "Double anchor structure" established, the middle area becomes a natural gravity zone
Once $76,000–$77,000 is firmly established as a new upper chip concentration peak, together with the lower $62,000–$63,000, it forms a classic "double anchor structure." According to chip game theory, after the high-level turnover is completed, the price is highly likely to seek a pullback support and liquidity rebalancing around the structure's central axis — the $68,000–$70,000 area.
💡 Summary:
Profit-taking at high levels does not mean the bull market has peaked, but the market needs a washout and consolidation toward the central axis. Patiently wait for the turnover results at $76k–$77k; if it pulls back to $68k–$70k, it is actually an excellent structural opportunity to add positions.ZEC 这轮行情的名字，在中文社区里被戏称为“大零币”，听上去确实带着几分随性，但市场表现却一点也不含糊。从 550 附近启动，一路推升到 880 上方，短短时间里接近翻倍，市值排名也顺势挤进了前十。这样的涨幅，放在任何一个板块里都足以引起注意，更何况它属于隐私币这个相对小众的赛道。 如果我们把时间轴拉长一点看，会发现类似的剧本并不陌生。上一轮周期里，XRP 也曾在一段时间内领涨全场，气势如虹地冲高之后，同样迎来了幅度不小的回落。历史不会简单重复，但市场情绪的运行节奏，往往有着相似的脉搏。当前 ZEC 的位置，恰好就处在一个“还能不能继续创新高”的观察窗口。 今天盘面再度突破前高，说明多头力量还没有完全衰竭。但一个值得留意的细节是，如果明天无法延续这种破顶的势头，那么短线资金可能会选择兑现利润，价格也就有了进入整理阶段的可能性。这种判断并不激进，更多是基于动能衰减的常规推演——没有哪个币种能永远保持单边强势，即便是最热门的标的，也需要喘息。 从基本面看，ZEC 这轮上涨并非孤立事件。隐私赛道整体回暖，加上市场对合规化、匿名性需求的重新关注，给了它额外的支撑。但也要看到，市值前十的位置历Just when you thought the tech stock sell-off would drag down the entire risk asset market as usual, $BTC and $GLD closed higher at the same time. The VIX Panic Index is rising, but funds are not leaving, but are redrawing safety boundaries. Outline - Where the Money Went Away 🔍: Cross-Asset Rotation - 📈 BTC's Standalone Market: Institutions Are Still Buying - ⚠️ The Trap Within Volume Tokens: Who Is Being Abandoned - 🧭 Macro Undercover: Interest Rates, Geopolitics, and Banking Licenses Today's Snapshot $BTC 78,922, +1.76% $ETH 2,483, +1.06% $QQQ -1.00%, $SPY -0.29%, Dow 53,417.16, +0.26% $DXY 0.00%, $GLD +0.79% $ IBIT +2.20% VIX 15.84, +4.62% $USO 132.21, -1.80% 1. Where the 🔍 money went Tech stocks fell, but the market did not see risk-off sell-offs; instead, there was a split flow of funds. $QQQ fell 1.00%, $SPY fell 0.29%, but $BTC rose 1.76%, $ETH rose 1.06%, and $GLD rose 0.79%. The US Dollar Index $DXY remained unchanged, with the VIX at only +4.62%, indicating that this is not a full-blown panic, but rather a withdrawal of funds from high-valuation tech stocks toward alternative assets like gold and crypto. $IBIT（B$BTC & $ETH: Why Has the Rally Avoided a Major Correction?
The rally is supported by strong spot ETF demand, renewed institutional buying, and heavy short liquidations. U.S. spot $BTC ETFs attracted $1.92B last week, while $ETH ETFs added $697M.
Short covering amplified the move, while improved liquidity, Treasury buybacks, and a friendlier regulatory outlook strengthened risk appetite.
With spot demand absorbing selling pressure, pullbacks have remained shallow. 79999.8! Just $0.2 short of 80,000, is the market maker teasing me?
Brothers, last night's market was truly a rare sight.
$BTC surged all the way, reaching a high of 79999.8 USD—just 0.2 away from 80,000. Just this 0.2 short, is the market maker deliberately leaving suspense like a TV series?
🎯 Why just 0.2 short?
First, 80,000 is a “sell wall.” According to traders' analysis, about $100 million worth of sell orders are stacked near 80,000, making it the largest selling pressure zone currently. Additionally, Binance has about $31.98 million in sell orders hanging around 79,945 USD. A large amount of capital has pre-placed take-profit orders at this psychological threshold, forming a natural barrier.
Second, a double squeeze from options and trapped positions. 80,000 is not only a psychological watershed highly watched by global investors but also concentrates a large number of bullish options positions and historical trapped positions needing to break even. When the price hits this level, profit-taking and break-even selling flood out simultaneously.
Third, short squeeze fuel is exhausted. Previously, over $3 billion in shorts have been liquidated, and the forced buying “passive demand” is fading. Next, it will rely on real spot demand to take over.
🚀 Can it break 80,000?
It can, but with conditions.
The market generally believes that once a breakout above 80,000 is confirmed, the next target range will open to 85,000–90,000 USD. Some analysts even predict closing near 80,000 in 2026 and breaking 120,000 next year.
But several conditions must be met:
First, ETF funds must continue to flow in. Last week, ETF net inflow was about $1.9 billion, the real support for this rally. But if inflows slow, the rally may stall.
Second, Coinbase premium must turn positive. Currently, US spot demand remains weak; this rally is largely driven by leverage rather than spot buying.
Third, Friday’s Jackson Hole meeting is a key catalyst. This is the first appearance of Powell as the new Fed Chair—if dovish, it could push 80,000 and beyond; if hawkish, it might crash back to 73,000. Since 2022, BTC has always experienced sharp volatility around this meeting, without exception.
⚠️ Where are the risks?
Above 82,000, about $4 billion in short liquidity is stacked. If 80,000 breaks strongly, it could trigger a new wave of short squeezes, possibly pushing directly to 82,700. But if 80,000 fails to hold, there is almost no decent support before 71,000, and the drop could be very fast.
In summary: 80,000 is a psychological barrier; holding it means 82K–87K, failing means a major correction.
💎 My view
The number 79999.8 will be etched in many people’s memories. The market maker left the suspense until the last moment; the real answer may come after Friday’s Jackson Hole meeting.
Before then, chasing highs is not cost-effective. Better to wait and see—will 80,000 turn from resistance into support, or be completely rejected?
Discuss in the comments: Do you think it will break 80,000 this week?
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The above content is only a market information summary and personal opinion sharing, not any investment advice. Trading involves risks; decisions should be made cautiously.$BTC is currently priced at about $78,900, up over 22% for the week, showing a strong rebound.
Institutional capital inflow is the main driver: the US spot ETF recorded the strongest weekly inflow in nearly 10 months (about $1.9 billion), combined with the US Treasury expanding bond repurchases to suppress yields, a weakening dollar, and short squeeze pressure, BTC has strongly broken through the $60-67k range, approaching the $80k psychological level. BTC dominance has risen to about 59%, highly correlated with gold, intensifying the narrative of scarce assets.
Technically, the bullish structure remains intact (above key moving averages), but the daily RSI is overbought (around 78-82), with sentiment entering greed/extreme greed zones, posing short-term correction risks. Key support is at $75-76k, resistance at $79.5-80.8k.
Next week’s Jackson Hole Fed speech (August 28) is an important catalyst.
In short: institutional inflows plus macro tailwinds ignite the rebound, approaching 80k but with clear overbought signals; the recommendation is to wait and watch, not chase the highs.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 BTC: Triple Selling Pressure Approaches the 80,000 Threshold, Rebound Enters the Most Testing Deep Waters of Patience
In August, BTC staged a desperate counterattack, surging from a low of $64,000 to a high of $79,400, with a weekly gain exceeding 24%. The total short liquidations across the network surpassed $2.7 billion, setting the highest single-day liquidation record since 2021. As of August 25, BTC was oscillating narrowly around $78,900, just a step away from the $80,000 integer mark. Behind this seemingly smooth rise, the market is entering the most testing deep waters of patience—triple selling pressure from historical trapped positions, miner sell-offs, and institutional unwind is stacking near the $80,000 level, while the short squeeze momentum that drove the rally has been fully exhausted. The next phase will truly test the quality of the capital.
The first layer of selling pressure comes from the concentrated unwinding of historical trapped positions. The $78,000–$82,000 range is a dense chip zone formed at the end of 2025 and was previously recognized by the market as the "policy bottom" expectation area. A large amount of retail capital entered here to bottom-fish but then got deeply trapped due to policy shifts. Glassnode data shows that the average holding cost for US spot BTC ETF holders is about $82,465, and BlackRock's IBIT holders have an even higher cost of $82,206. This means the current price level is exactly the critical point for large-scale trapped positions to unwind; the closer the price gets to $80,000, the more concentrated the unwinding pressure becomes. This is the core reason why every rally near $79,000 recently has quickly pulled back.
The second layer of selling pressure comes from miners' structural liquidation. After the price rose above $70,000, mining companies moved from loss to profit zones, significantly increasing their motivation to cash out. Data shows that the weighted average cash cost of listed mining companies falls between $76,000 and $80,000. The closer the price is to $80,000, the thicker the miners' marginal profits, and the larger the scale of transfers to exchanges for liquidation. Unlike retail investors' emotional trades, miner selling pressure is a long-term, stable structural sell-off that continuously releases during the rally, precisely suppressing the price's upward slope. During this rebound, miners' daily transfer volume to exchanges has tripled compared to the June low, becoming the most stable short force.
The third layer of selling pressure comes from early institutional funds distributing at highs. During this rebound, while leading ETF funds concentrated their entries, existing institutions have been cashing out at highs. In the past three days, a whale address has cumulatively sold over 7,700 BTC, precisely hitting the $79,000 level; Grayscale's GBTC continues to redeem, steadily releasing hundreds of millions of dollars in selling pressure weekly. This creates a turnover pattern of "new institutions building positions at lows to support the market, old institutions distributing at highs to take profits," which also determines that BTC is unlikely to experience a one-sided violent surge but will more likely digest selling pressure gradually through oscillating upward movement.
Fortunately, the capital support remains solid, providing a safety cushion for the market. On August 21, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $307 million, with BlackRock's IBIT single product contributing $239.3 million, accounting for over 70%. The logic of leading institutions concentrating their positions remains unchanged. On a weekly basis, net inflows reached $1.92 billion, the highest single-week record since October 2025, showing strong institutional capital support. On-chain data also shows that long-term holders control 83% of BTC chips, the highest proportion since December 2023, indicating very stable underlying chips.
The core short-term variable is the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting from August 27 to 29. Under the baseline scenario, the new Fed Chair Wash maintains a "data-dependent, no forward guidance" communication strategy, and BTC will likely continue to oscillate and turnover between $75,000 and $81,000, taking 2-3 weeks to digest the triple selling pressure and steadily raise the market's average holding cost. Under an optimistic scenario, a dovish signal hinting at rate cuts in Q4 could help BTC break through the $80,000 threshold with capital relay, reaching the $82,000–$83,000 chip gap zone. Under a pessimistic scenario, an unexpectedly hawkish stance might trigger a pullback to $72,000–$73,000, but deep drops are unlikely due to institutional base support.
From a mid-term perspective, if the Fed officially starts a rate-cut cycle in September and ETFs maintain weekly net inflows above $1 billion, the triple selling pressure will gradually be digested amid oscillations, and BTC is expected to challenge the previous high of $88,000 in Q4. Overall, BTC is currently in the middle stage of valuation repair, entering a deep zone of concentrated selling pressure in the short term, making oscillations inevitable, but the mid-term logic of oscillating upward remains intact. The recommended strategy is a mid-term approach: hold base positions, accumulate in batches near $75,000 on pullbacks, avoid blindly chasing highs or shorting lightly, and patiently wait for direction confirmation after turnover is complete. $BTC $ETH $DOGE #杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径
This week, the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting officially begins, and Warsh's public debut this time will be a key variable affecting the entire market.
After the July FOMC meeting, Warsh did not release a clear policy direction, and the market's doubts about the Fed's subsequent path have not dissipated. The market most wants to get an answer from this speech: on which core indicators does the Fed base its adjustments to the subsequent interest rate trajectory. If the statement remains vague, the entire market will continue to fluctuate amid uncertainty about rate hike expectations.
This week will also see the release of a batch of key economic indicators such as the PCE price index, GDP revision data, and durable goods orders, used to verify the stickiness of inflation. The market will not be determined solely by the speech; data and officials' remarks will resonate together, jointly influencing risk asset pricing.
On the chart, $BTC has repeatedly hit resistance and fallen back in the 79500‑80000 range, currently fluctuating around 77500. The price has already reflected reality: above the 80,000 mark, incremental chasing funds have already run out of steam.
Two scenarios can be simply deduced: if Warsh's overall tone leans hawkish, then around 80,000 is very likely to become a phase high for this round of the market, with a pullback target of 74000‑75000; if a more dovish signal is released, then after breaking through 80,000, the upside space will be fully opened.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 The deadliest illusion in a bull market is not a K-line breakdown, but the collective cerebral climax of "this time the logic is flawless."
When liquidity floods the market and prices defy gravity, the market spontaneously generates countless sophisticated narratives—metaverse new paradigms, Web3 value internet, zero-knowledge proofs reconstructing trust. Each argument is so self-consistent it’s suffocating, as if the technological shackles of the old era have been completely shattered. But history repeatedly proves: bubbles never burst amid doubt, only quietly peak amid unanimous conviction.
The faith in BTC has transformed from the romantic imagination of "digital gold" into cold numbers on sovereign fund balance sheets. Its ultimate moat is not technology, but the "compliant options" in the world’s largest liquidity pool—this is a double-edged gift. ETH’s crossroads lie in that the more successful the Rollup-centric roadmap is, the more diminished the mainnet’s presence as a settlement layer becomes. SOL’s do-or-die battle is whether Firedancer can turn theoretical maximum throughput into hard metrics in real-world scenarios, rather than another testnet show mocked for congestion. If it cannot support real-world order books and high-frequency demands, its high speed will ultimately be just a roller coaster in an amusement park.
My portfolio has only one iron rule: when the industry enters a glacial period and everyone is questioning roadmaps and mocking milestones, does this ecosystem still answer everything with code? Only survivors who have endured the deep bear market of 2018 and the crash season of 2022 are qualified to discuss the coordinates for the next decade. I've also held this kind of position — all indicators say it should drop, yet it just stays flat 🧊
Holding a short position until now, I can understand your current state — all indicators say it should fall, RSI oscillates between 78-86 in the overbought zone, the fear and greed index is at 79, just one point shy of extreme greed, the long-short ratio is 4:1, BNB whales have unrealized profits of $120 million, and there are four times more shorts than longs. The logic and reasons for the drop you want are all readily available; you could even say the market has given enough "time to correct" signals, but the price still remains high, like a mountain unmoved by any reason.
Why won't it drop?
Because the pricing power is currently in the hands of the bulls, and indicators are lagging. An overbought RSI doesn't necessarily mean a drop; it can stay overbought for a long time — at the end of 2020, BTC's RSI stayed above 80 for several consecutive weeks, during which the price rose from 20,000 to 40,000. The fear and greed index staying above 75 often lasts longer than most expect. In a bull market, FOMO is not a risk, it's fuel. A long-short ratio dominated by shorts is often proven wrong in trending markets — the more shorts, the more rocket fuel.
Technically, the answer has already been given: as long as EMA30 isn't broken, the trend hasn't changed.
Since last week's rebound, BTC has been walking above EMA30. As long as this line holds, the current sideways movement is a consolidation, not a top. The correction you're waiting for will most likely come, but not now. The real top doesn't appear during sideways consolidation at a high level; it appears when everyone thinks "this time it really broke out," then volume surges and reverses.
If you're reluctant to close your short stop loss now and are waiting for a correction to reduce losses or make a profit — then wait.
But while waiting, you need to think clearly about one thing: if this correction really comes, where will it likely pull back to? EMA30 is roughly in the 68,000-70,000 range, which is also the range Jiang Zhuoer mentioned: "If it falls back to 67,000-72,000, I will buy all in." If your short stop loss space can cover this range, you can hold on a bit longer; if not, the current sideways movement might just be slowing your losses, not helping you break even.
Don't fight the structure, don't fight the trend. Instead of holding shorts and repeatedly doubting your judgment, wait for the structure to give you an answer — EMA30 breaks, or price surges with volume again. Until then, the trend is on the bulls' side.
#BTC #ETH #shorting #tradingpsychology $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 When semiconductors crash and $BTC surges to 80,000, what exactly is the market trading?
Tuesday's market sent a split signal to everyone: Bitcoin hit $80,000 again after 101 days, soaring nearly 30% in a week; meanwhile, Nvidia fell 3%, $MU dropped 5.8%, and the Nasdaq closed down 0.76%.
The same pool of capital, the same macro environment, yet crypto assets and tech stocks moved in completely opposite directions.
This situation itself is worth pausing to consider.
The direct trigger for this round of movement is geopolitical. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the launch of the "Economic Pariah Action," further cutting off Iran from the global financial system. The U.S.-Iran conflict has lasted nearly six months, the Strait of Hormuz remains not fully reopened, and nuclear deal negotiations are deadlocked. The most immediate consequence of escalating sanctions is a tightening of crude oil supply expectations, potentially pushing oil prices higher again, adding uncertainty to inflation and thus affecting the Fed's rate cut path.
Interestingly, the market gave two completely different price reactions to the same news: Bitcoin rose, semiconductors fell.
Optimists will tell you that the more the U.S. dollar-dominated financial sanctions system expands, the stronger the demand from non-dollar economies for alternative stores of value and settlement tools becomes. Bitcoin's "de-sovereign" narrative gains unprecedented support under this logic. Last week's $2.6 billion ETF inflow seems to confirm this — institutions are viewing Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge.
But if you truly believe this logic, the next question is: if rising oil prices push inflation expectations back up and U.S. Treasury yields rebound, can Bitcoin still hold up on the "digital gold" story? Bitcoin's rise over the past week largely relied on interest rate declines driven by U.S. Treasury repurchases. Once this external condition reverses, the foundation supporting the $80,000 level will weaken. More directly, Bitcoin has yet to be tested in any real stagflation environment.
Another detail worth noting: after reaching $80,000, Bitcoin quickly retreated to $77,898, with a 24-hour gain narrowing to 1.25%. Selling pressure at the 80,000 mark is real, and trading volume did not significantly increase. This price action indicates a lack of consensus on the breakout, with market participants still divided at the current price level. Whether last week's $2.6 billion ETF inflow continued in the first two trading days of this week remains unverified. If inflows slow down, combined with geopolitical risk aversion, $80,000 may only be a short-term peak rather than the start of a trend breakout.
A deeper contradiction lies in the fact that institutional signals are not unified. BlackRock and Morgan Stanley increased positions against the trend in Q2, while Harvard and Citi retreated. One side is bottom-fishing, the other is reducing holdings; even professional institutions differ greatly in pricing the same asset. This shows the market currently lacks a widely accepted valuation anchor. Bitcoin's rise reflects more the capture of liquidity premium than the establishment of a fundamental narrative.
So the core question now is not "Can Bitcoin reach 100,000?" but "What exactly is the current price pricing in?"
If it prices in geopolitical hedging and dollar substitution, this rally's logic is long-term; if it only prices in short-term liquidity overflow from U.S. Treasury repurchases, it may just be an arbitrage within a macro window.
How long will U.S.-Iran sanctions last? Will oil prices push inflation higher again? Can ETF inflows be sustained? Can Bitcoin complete turnover and volume breakout near 80,000?
The answers to these three questions will determine the nature of this rebound. And the nature of this rebound will decide whether Bitcoin becomes a new anchor in global asset allocation over the next six months or just another bubble fueled by liquidity excess.
What’s your take? What exactly is the market pricing in?
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 $ETH BTC surged close to $80,000 in this wave, but open interest actually dropped to a two-month low.
This signal isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Price is rising while contract positions are decreasing, indicating that a large number of shorts have already been cleared out, and the market hasn't immediately piled on a large batch of high-leverage longs. Compared to "the higher the price rises, the more leverage stacks up," the current structure is actually much cleaner.
But on the other hand, it's also clear: the fuel for the short squeeze has been largely burned.
If BTC wants to keep pushing higher, it can't rely solely on short liquidations to drive the price; it depends on whether spot and ETF funds can continue to support it.
What’s more important than watching liquidations next is to see if the price can continue to strengthen in sync when open interest starts rising again. $BTC Many people are curious why Trump suddenly became the "number one promoter" of Bitcoin $BTC. Actually, there's a big game behind this, and the answer lies entirely in the bond market.
Simply put, the U.S. urgently needs to find buyers for its massive debt, and cryptocurrency is their new tool.
Think about it: when interest rates rise in Japan, the money that used to buy U.S. bonds flows back, reducing buyers of U.S. bonds, and interest rates are about to become uncontrollable. What to do? The U.S. government steps in directly, not only expanding bond repurchases but also preparing to use cash from the treasury to inject liquidity.
The most critical step comes next: who will buy these short-term debts? The answer is stablecoin companies. Because by law, for every 1 dollar of stablecoin issued, they must buy 1 dollar of U.S. Treasury bonds. In other words, the hotter the crypto market, the more stablecoins are issued, and the easier it is to sell U.S. Treasury bonds.
This forms a perfect closed loop: the government floods the market to save the bond market, the crypto market rises accordingly; the more crypto rises, the easier it is for the U.S. to borrow.
So, Trump's strong support for Bitcoin is not about faith but about maintaining the dollar's hegemony and solving the U.S. debt crisis. When confidence in U.S. debt wanes, Bitcoin $BTC becomes the "digital gold" the U.S. uses to hedge risk. Understanding this logic reveals just how deep the waters are behind this market trend!→ Bitmine now holds about 5.85 million ETH, which is nearly 4.8% of the total Ethereum supply. The company thus remains the largest corporate treasury in ETH. → Tom Lee's strategy is clear: to gradually approach his goal of 5% of the ETH supply while staking a significant portion of the holdings. ► Why is this important? → A company controlling nearly 1 ETH out of 20 becomes a major institutional player in the ecosystem. → This strengthens egHaving been involved in the crypto circle for several years, I've come to realize that "slow" is actually the fastest way.
When I first entered, I was eager to double my money in a day, but nearly lost my principal.
Later, I changed my approach: I buy a little spare money every month and treat it as if it's lost.
When I buy $BTC, I put it in a cold wallet, write the password on a note, tuck the note inside a book, and stash the book on top of a cabinet.
Want to sell? You have to get a ladder, flip through the book, find the note—it's so troublesome that I just don't sell.
This trick helped me survive several big crashes, and in the end, my returns were better than constantly trading around.
I haven't even tried simulated contracts because I know I can't afford to lose.
I quit all the news groups except one, and that's only because the group owner is my cousin.
Now he posts health videos there every day, which is much better than posting coin price links.
My current judgment method is simple: when the market vendors are all talking about stocks, it's time to sell a bit.
When no one mentions making money, it's time to slowly buy a bit.
I staked a little $ETH, and the interest I earn is enough to buy two milk teas every month.
Though not much, that's a real sweet treat you can actually enjoy, more tangible than floating profits in an account.
I only add to my position under one condition: when the price keeps falling until even the complaints stop.
At that time, I close my eyes and add a little, then turn off the computer and go to sleep.
I set my stop loss at 15% below cost; when it hits, I cut losses and then go run a couple of laps downstairs.
After running and sweating, it's much better than staring at a losing screen.
When I make money, I first take out half and convert it into something tangible.
Last month, I took some out to buy a new fridge for my family; now it's much easier to enjoy chilled watermelon.
That cool, sweet reality can't be matched by any number of zeros in an account.
I only have a tiny bit of $SOL left, bought at a high point years ago, now just a little bookmark in my notebook.
Every time I open it and see it, it reminds me not to get carried away; good things also need to wait for a good price.
Now I spend no more than two minutes checking the market daily, set alerts, then shut down the computer.
The time saved I use to learn hand-pulled noodles—kneading, rolling, cutting—which is much more relaxing than watching K-line charts.
A bowl of hot noodles down the hatch beats any price rise or fall for comfort.
Finally, one sentence: treat the crypto circle as a piggy bank, not a gambling table, and life will steadily move forward. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡
#OKX预言家：F1与TI15赛果揭晓
#杰克逊霍尔临近，沃什能否明确政策路径 2.6 billion USD flowing back, what exactly are institutions buying?
In the past week, $BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 1.9 billion USD, and $ETH ETFs nearly 700 million USD, totaling 2.6 billion. BTC returned to 80,000 USD, ETH surpassed 2,500 USD, and short liquidations exceeded 4 billion USD. The data looks great, and market sentiment has quickly warmed.
But looking over a longer period, in Q2 these two ETFs had a combined net outflow of about 3.5 billion USD. The current 2.6 billion inflow fills most of that gap but hasn’t fully covered it. In other words, this looks more like previously exited funds re-entering rather than entirely new incremental capital coming in.
What’s more intriguing is the trigger. The spark for this rebound was the U.S. Treasury announcing at least a doubling of long-term bond repurchases, causing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to drop from 5.34% to 5.19%, the dollar weakened, and liquidity overflowed. Bitcoin’s rise is largely a byproduct of macro policy changes rather than a fundamental shift in crypto.
Another often overlooked factor is short liquidations. Forced closure of 4 billion USD in shorts created passive buying that amplified gains in the short term, but this is fundamentally different from institutions’ active strategic allocations. Price discovery driven by short squeezes usually requires subsequent genuine buying to confirm.
Institutions themselves haven’t reached consensus. In Q2, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley increased positions against the trend, but Harvard University liquidated its Ethereum ETF and significantly cut Bitcoin holdings, while Citi lowered target prices under outflow pressure. Buying on one side and selling on the other shows even professional institutions have clear disagreements on current price levels and long-term logic.
Therefore, the true quality of this rebound depends on the coming weeks: how long will the liquidity bonus from Treasury repurchases last? Can Bitcoin hold steady near 80,000 USD and attract new long-term holders? If the answers are yes, then this 2.6 billion could mark the start of a new trend; if liquidity recedes and prices quickly fall back, it will ultimately be just an arbitrage event within a macro window.
Markets always speak through price, but the nature of the capital behind the price determines how far the rebound can go.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入 比特币重新站上七万七千美元关口，以太坊也逐步靠近两千四百美元，这轮反弹背后是现货ETF资金流入与空头回补的双重推动。过去一周，现货比特币ETF净流入达到十六亿美元，机构资金的回归让市场情绪明显回暖，这是当前行情最扎实的支撑点。📈 不过，如果我们把视线从两大龙头身上移开，会发现山寨币的处境依然微妙。BEAT、BICO、KAITO、LAB、SNDK这些代币并没有跟上主要资产的步伐，缺乏持续买盘，价格表现参差不齐。这种分化本身就在提醒我们，当下的上涨并非全面开花，而是带着明显的选择性。 真正值得思考的问题是，资金会不会从比特币和以太坊向外扩散。如果仅仅依靠ETF通道的机构买盘，那么流动性的传导路径其实是有限的，因为这部分资金大多集中在主流资产上。山寨币想要真正走强，需要看到现货市场成交量的整体放大，以及更多代币在回调中形成更高的低点结构，而不是被动跟随龙头波动。 从目前的市场结构来看，这更像是一场由比特币主导的修复行情，而非山寨季的前奏。空头回补带来的上涨往往来得快，但也容易在情绪降温后出现反复。如果我们看不到成交量持续配合，那么对山寨币的期待仍应保持耐心。🪙 风险提示：加密市场波动较大Saylor's latest disclosure shows that as of August 23, Strategy holds approximately 840,447 BTC, about 4% of the total BTC supply, with net leverage close to 0; meanwhile, the company has increased its USD Reserve to $5.1 billion, newly established $1.59 billion USD Cash, and repurchased about $136 million STRC. Strategy did not add any new BTC in the past week.
More notably, Saylor added that this new USD Cash can be used for future BTC purchases, paying preferred stock dividends and interest, repurchasing MSTR/preferred stock, repaying convertible bonds, and continuing to expand the USD reserve. In other words, this is not simply "bearish BTC to cash," but more like actively increasing capital allocation optionality.
Why I think this is worth attention: Strategy now holds a total of about $6.69 billion in USD liquidity reserves, and it has historically been one of the most aggressive corporate BTC buyers globally. The market used to interpret "Saylor Monday updates" as continued coin buying, but now with consecutive pauses in adding BTC, while increasing cash and repurchasing STRC, it indicates that Strategy's capital allocation logic is clearly becoming more flexible. #FinancialReportObserver: Led by NVIDIA, AI returns enter the validation phase
NVDA current price $208.48, down 2.91% in a single day, earnings data is impressive but stock price weakens, market logic has changed.
The past two years were about frantically investing in expanding computing power, now officially entering the input-output validation stage. Cloud providers will not buy chips endlessly; whether AI projects can make money will determine the intensity of future computing power procurement.
Positive factors: NVIDIA's computing power orders remain full, Blackwell chip shipments are stable, data center revenue still contributes 90% of income, the fundamentals are very solid.
Risks: Marginal growth slows, customers begin to develop their own chips, competitive pressure gradually increases, purely exceeding earnings expectations is already hard to trigger a big surge.
Market linkage
$BTC｜$76710, resistance at 79000, support at 73800. AI sector sentiment decline will indirectly affect computing power concept coins in the crypto space.
$ETH｜$2445, resistance at 2500, support at 2390. Overall market trend is still primarily constrained by US Treasury yields.
Key focus going forward: Whether cloud providers show signs of capital expenditure contraction; if AI profits fall short of expectations, the risk of correction in high valuation sectors increases.
Personal market record only, does not constitute any investment advice. CORE 的走势让我想起很多年前玩过的 YOUChain，那种熟悉感不是来自某个单一指标，而是K线形态、社区氛围、项目方行事风格叠在一起之后形成的整体气质。项目方不拉盘，只埋头做事，社区在漫长的横盘里反复煎熬，偶尔有人喊单，但更多时候是沉默。等到某个外部条件成熟，突然来一波凌厉的拉升，随后又缓慢归零。如果你也记得 YOUChain，那你大概能理解我在说什么。CORE 给我的感觉，就是 YOU 的某种翻版，不是技术上的复制，而是命运轨迹的重演。 我并不是在唱衰它，恰恰相反，这种“不拉盘”的状态反而让我觉得项目还活着。真正危险的是那些上线即巅峰、随后一路阴跌再无动静的币。CORE 至少还在维持某种节奏，像是等待一个契机。只是这种等待对普通持币者来说，考验的是耐心，更是对项目方意图的信任。 另一个让我反复权衡的是 ASTER。市场对它评价普遍不高，在 DEX 生态里它甚至算不上主流，和 HYPE 相比，它更像是边缘角色。但我还是选择买入，理由听起来有点反直觉，因为它弱得不太正常。背后明明有 BNB 的支持，又是 WLFI 官方公布的唯一合作伙伴，流动性也持续注入。这么多利好叠加，价格却始终横The most glaring thing on the chessboard is not the checkmated king, but the sudden crack in what you thought was an impregnable pawn chain. This week, tech earnings reports are like a series of forced moves, with every piece shouting: Look at me! But what you really need to listen to is the breathing behind the throne.
NVIDIA is the queen, applying pressure to the center with every move; Synopsys is the bishop, quietly controlling the flanks along the long diagonal of chip design; Salesforce is the rook, charging straight into the open lines of enterprise orders; CrowdStrike is the knight, leaping through the jungle of security defenses; Okta and Marvell, one like a nimble pawn, the other like a rook on standby. The pieces are all gathered, but they don’t necessarily make a good game.
The key in the middle game is coordination. The demand for computing power in hardware is the central pawn chain. As long as this pawn chain keeps advancing, the market is willing to give the king’s valuation some room. But if you find that in the software camp’s earnings reports, those so-called “customers paying for intelligent features” stories only show costs without revenue—that’s like your bishops and knights standing on the eighth rank, looking fierce but actually controlling not a single square.
True masters will choose to sacrifice pieces here. For example, giving up a quarter’s profit margin to gain a strategic central square. But conversely, if all players use “infrastructure investment” as a defensive shield, the game turns into a prolonged exchange of pieces—no one wants to move first, and no one has a real killer move.
Endgame thinking tells us: the winner is never the fastest rook, but the one who prepared a path for the endgame right from the opening. Position management is the same—when signals show strong hardware but weak software, the dumbest response is to push all pawns into enemy lines; the smartest is to adjust the formation, giving yourself enough time to wait for that delayed e5 from software.
So, don’t ask who the winner is this week. What you really need to ask is—your opponent has already revealed the posture of the rear flank, and your minor pieces are still gathering dust in the corner. How are you going to respond to this move? #aiearningswatchThe 10-year government bond yield has hit 4.7%, yet the market still claims liquidity is ample? It's like standing under a supertall building that's not yet topped out, watching the core tube's steel rebar groan with metal fatigue in the wind, while the general contractor holds a walkie-talkie and tells you: "Don't worry, the concrete pump truck is still operating normally."
Kashkari's message is clear: the load-bearing walls haven't cracked, the tower crane hasn't tilted, so there's no need to adjust the grout mix. But any real structural engineer knows—when the wind vibration frequency starts approaching the building's natural frequency, what you need isn't reassurance, but to check whether the dampers are actually working.
The Ministry of Finance raised the 10-30 year repo limit from 2 billion directly to 4 billion—what kind of move is this? It's like installing an active mass damper on a skyscraper. It doesn't change the structural system or reduce the total height; it just places a huge pendulum on the top floor to swing in the wind, absorbing the sway that makes residents dizzy. The 30-year yield immediately fell back, indicating the damper did absorb some wind energy—the building sways less, but it's still the same building, with the same load.
What does the repo program solve? Market liquidity, smoothing the debt management curve. It's not an elevator, not a tower crane, and certainly not a red pen changing the design plan. When the three pile drivers of deficit, issuance volume, and inflation expectations simultaneously hammer underground, the repo on the surface is just painting the fence around the foundation pit—looks good, safe, but doesn't change the soil conditions deep in the foundation.
**The real structural problem is: if the wind field has permanently changed, the damper can keep the building upright, but can it reduce costs? Can it shorten the construction period?**
The capital market target now is a linked observation: to see if the repo operation can act like temporary support, giving the front end of the yield curve some breathing room. But support is support; it is neither prestressed steel strands nor a giant transfer beam that changes the load-bearing system.
A 4.7% yield is the inherent frequency of the current structure. A 4 billion repo makes this frequency sound less harsh. But what really determines whether this building can stand firm in a once-in-a-century storm has never been the damper—but the foundation, cross-sectional dimensions, and material strength.
This building is still growing taller, and the wind is still getting stronger. Dampers are necessary, but don't mistake them for new pile foundations. #treasurybuybacktest$ETH last night BTC touched 79,870, just shy of breaking 80,000, ETH peaked only around $2,530 (intraday on 8/24), hitting a new high since February but not surpassing the pre-rebound high on August 19, nor touching the all-time high of 4,953 on 2025/8/24. Daily gains were about 2%–3.7%, clearly lagging behind BTC's short squeeze rhythm—not because ETH is weak, but because this rally wasn't originally meant for ETH.
Breaking down last night's market:
BTC's rise was driven by a "macro + short squeeze" dual engine: the US Treasury extended long-term bond repos to suppress long-end yields, spot BTC ETFs absorbed $1.92 billion in a single week (the strongest since last October), and over $4 billion in short positions were liquidated in three days. BTC surged from 62,800 to 79,800, pushed by institutions and short-covering.
ETH's rise was "brought along": ETH's weekly gain in the same period was about 29% (BTC about 21–24%), seemingly not bad, but when BTC surged to 79.8K last night, ETH did not simultaneously break its previous high. The ETH/BTC ratio only returned to 0.0318, far from the August 2025 high of 0.043, and even further from 0.085 in 2021—still crawling at a low relative to BTC.
Capital is "doing subtraction": The Fed maintains 3.5%–3.75%, 30Y US Treasury near 5.3%, institutions want assets that can be explained "in one sentence" = digital gold BTC; ETH's narrative (staking yields + L2 + RWA + AI settlement) is too complex, fund managers hear "higher risk, more variables," so ETF inflows into BTC are about 2.7 times that of ETH ($1.92 billion vs $697 million).
ETH itself has "internal injuries": After Dencun, L2s siphoned off mainnet Gas and burn volume, breaking the "ultrasound money" deflation logic; mainnet usage is lively but value doesn't flow back to the circulation layer; plus, early August saw net outflows from ETH ETFs, on-chain whales transferred tens of thousands of tokens adding selling pressure, high elasticity but weak absorption.
So why was ETH "weaker than BTC" last night?
BTC is running an independent "macro hedge + short squeeze repair" rally, ETH is still waiting for its catalysts (continued net inflows in spot ETFs, L2 value flowing back to mainnet, RWA volume increase, Glamsterdam upgrade).
Until then, ETH is a high Beta follower: when BTC rallies, short covering pulls ETH up; when BTC consolidates, ETH weakens first; when BTC dips, ETH falls harder.
In the early bull market, watch BTC solo; mid-term, ETH catches up.
Now if ETH/BTC doesn't break the 0.035 weekly lifeline, don't take "ETH weakness" as a bottom-fishing signal, but as a sign that capital preference hasn't shifted yet.
Key levels (actionable):
ETH USD: Hold above 2,400 to keep bulls intact; break 2,300 to revisit 2,150–2,200 consolidation zone; surpass 2,530 last night's high to qualify for testing 2,700.
ETH/BTC: Current at 0.0318, weekly close above 0.035 means "rotation truly begins"; break below 0.029 to revisit recent lows and continue to be under pressure.
Rhythm judgment: BTC stands firm at 80K weekly close → ETH will be led to break 2,530; BTC falls back to 74K → ETH first drops below 2,300 $ETH 🚨 $BTC IS APPROACHING $80K BUT THE NEXT MOVE MATTERS MORE THAN THE PUMP
Bitcoin has pushed through the $78K–$79K region and is now getting dangerously close to the psychological $80,000 level.
The move has been impressive.
$BTC is up roughly 22–24% over the past week, marking one of its strongest dollar moves in recent history.
But what makes this rally different is that it isn't being driven by just one factor.
🟠 ETF DEMAND IS BACK
One of the biggest catalysts has been institutional demand.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly attracted around $1.92B in inflows last week.
That is significant because ETF flows represent a much different source of demand than leveraged futures positioning.
Short liquidations can push price higher quickly.
But sustained spot demand can help keep the market elevated after the initial squeeze.
That’s exactly what traders need to watch now.
Does the money continue coming in after BTC reaches $80K?
If yes, the current rally could have more foundation than a simple short squeeze.
📜 REGULATION IS ADDING ANOTHER CATALYST
Regulatory optimism surrounding the CLARITY Act is also improving sentiment.
For institutional investors, regulatory clarity can be just as important as price.
The more uncertainty decreases, the easier it becomes for larger players to consider increasing exposure to digital assets.
So the current environment has several supportive factors working together:
ETF inflows + improving regulatory sentiment + strong momentum.
That combination deserves respect.
⚠️ BUT BTC IS GETTING EXTENDED
This is where things become more complicated.
The RSI is around 78, which indicates that Bitcoin is entering strongly overbought territory on the relevant timeframe.
That doesn't mean:
“BTC must crash.”
Overbought markets can remain overbought during powerful trends.
But after a move of more than 20% in a week, expecting some consolidation or profit-taking isn't unreasonable.
The $79.5K–$80K region is now the key battlefield.
If BTC reaches $80K and immediately gets rejected, we could see a healthy pullback.The market closed on August 24 Eastern Time (morning of August 25, Beijing time), with a focus on the storage industry chain analysis. 1. Overnight Overview of US Stocks The three major indices showed significant divergence: the Dow closed higher against the trend, while the Nasdaq led the decline. The core driver came from an extreme shift in market style: before Nvidia's earnings report, tech stocks continued to take profits, with funds flowing out from high-valuation AI tracks to traditional value blue chips for safe havens; Combined with Samsung Electronics' plunge affecting global memory sentiment, the semiconductor sector has become the hardest-hit area. • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.26%, closed at 53,417.16, with consumer goods and financials leading the support index • S&P 500: -0.28%, closing at 7,652.86; eleven major sectors showed mixed gains, with consumer discretionary, utilities, and financials rising over 1%, while information technology fell 1.59%, leading the decline. • Nasdaq Composite Index: -0.76%, closing at 25,980.19; semiconductor and AI hardware sectors pulled back sharply, dragging the index down • Fear Index VIX: Edged up to 17.8, pre-event risk aversion remains high. • Trading characteristics: Sector rotation is extreme, with capital flowing out of the tech growth sector sharply, semiconductor ETFs falling 2.43% in a single day; Value blue chips saw net capital inflows, and the divergence between the Dow and Nasdaq reached its highest level in recent times. Core feature of the market: A style switch with strong value and weak growth has been fully executed. Nvidia has fallen for seven consecutive days, marking the longest losing streak since 2022, putting pressure on the AI industry chain as a whole; Samsung Electronics Korean stocks#ZEC hits a new all-time high on the site, privacy assets revalued
Latest data
$ZEC has reached a new phase high, with short-term RSI overbought; resistance at $880‑920, support at 750. This has driven the same sector's XMR to strengthen in sync, with sector trading volume exploding, and the overall trend tied to the $BTC market.
Market consensus
The privacy narrative is booming, the sector is undergoing value revaluation, and the main upward trend is expected to continue.
Underlying logic analysis
The rise is driven by intensified on-chain monitoring, halving supply contraction, and institutional attention resonance. ZEC offers an optional privacy mode, balancing some compliance space; XMR enforces mandatory privacy by default, with higher privacy purity but greater regulatory risk. This is a theme rotation market, with huge short-term gains, and privacy coins also experience sharp pullbacks during market corrections.
Personal view (personal preference for a gradual bull market return, personal opinion only, not investment advice)
The sector narrative logic holds, but short-term bubbles are obvious. Do not chase highs in ZEC and XMR, limit to small positions for speculation, closely watch the $750 support, and reduce holdings first if the market weakens. lstBTC Institutional Version Officially Released: Technical Interfaces Connected, Capital Inflow Pending On-Chain Verification
CORE's lstBTC institutional version has been officially released, achieving technical integration with leading crypto custodians BitGo, Copper, and Hex Trust.
This news quickly spread throughout the community, with many interpreting it as a sign that large institutional BTC inflows will immediately flood the ecosystem.
However, in the crypto industry, product launches and interface integrations are completely different stages from actual institutional capital deployment and business operations; these should not be conflated.
I. Established Objective Facts
1. The lstBTC institutional product development is complete, with technical integration finalized with top custodians and an official announcement made. Institutions now have the technical capability to stake BTC and mint lstBTC within the existing custody framework.
2. Addresses a core institutional pain point: BTC assets do not need to leave the custodian to participate in BTC-Fi staking and earn yields, completing the ecosystem’s product puzzle for B2B clients.
3. This marks an important milestone in the CORE BTC-Fi roadmap.
II. Realistic Boundaries to Consider
1. Technical integration completed ≠ Custodians have opened this service to their institutional clients.
Interface connection means technical readiness only; custodians still need to complete internal risk control, compliance reviews, and product listing processes before offering it to their asset management and fund clients. The project-side announcement does not mean commercial availability to end institutional clients.
2. Currently, the vast majority of on-chain staked BTC comes from retail users; no large-scale or bulk lstBTC minting records from custodians have been observed.
Theoretically, the potential market is large, but potential scale does not equal existing on-chain supply. Future growth must be verified by on-chain data.
3. Even if institutional BTC staking scales up, the protocol’s revenue conversion mechanism into CORE token buyback and burn remains in the planning stage.
Institutional business growth benefits the entire BTC-Fi narrative; however, increased business volume does not automatically or directly translate into rigid token value capture.
4. Competition in the sector objectively exists; similar solutions like Babylon are also competing for custodians and institutional clients, and institutions have diverse choices.
III. Three Verifiable Signals to Track (Rely on Objective Evidence, Not News)
① Large-scale lstBTC minting on-chain, corresponding to incremental BTC staking at the thousand-coin level;
② Custodians themselves issue announcements officially opening lstBTC financial services to their institutional clients;
③ Protocol revenue buyback mechanisms are actually executed on-chain, not just documented or roadmap plans.
News announcements can be made instantly, but institutional business commercialization often follows a quarterly timeline. Positive news can trigger short-term market pulses, but true trend momentum requires confirmation from on-chain incremental data. $BTCBTC is repeatedly testing the 80,000 level, ETH is quietly rallying, and SanDisk is repaying debt—three streams of capital, three different logics.
$BTC has risen from 63,000 to 79,000 this round, driven mainly by short squeeze. Shorts were liquidated over 3 billion, and forced liquidations pushed the price up, but this is not genuine buying demand. Whether it can surpass 80,000 depends on whether spot buying can hold, not on how many shorts can still be liquidated.
ETH rose 31% this week, outperforming BTC. Capital is rotating from BTC to ETH, with ETFs seeing a net inflow of 220 million over four consecutive days. The market is betting on the arrival of altcoin season.
SanDisk dropped over 6%, with the entire storage sector hit. Rumors that Apple might source Chinese chips are suppressing the sector, and with SanDisk up over 500% this year, high-level chips are loosening and easily sold off.
Three streams of capital, three destinies. BTC is driven by short liquidations, ETH by ETF inflows, and SanDisk is repaying debts from the first half of the year.
Will it break 80,000? It depends on spot demand, not on how many shorts can still be liquidated.
#BTC冲高后震荡，ETF资金持续流入
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Ethereum's Historical Cycle Rate Projection
⚠️For historical review only, not investment advice. Past cycles cannot be simply replicated, DYOR
Ethereum does not have a fixed four-year halving supply cycle like Bitcoin. It follows Bitcoin's macro long-term cycle and is internally driven by three variables: narrative, technical upgrades, and ecosystem explosions. Its volatility beta is significantly higher than Bitcoin's: bull markets see larger gains, bear markets deeper retracements, with historical bear market maximum drawdowns ranging from 70% to 94%.
I. Review of Three Complete Historical Cycles
Cycle 1: ICO Cycle (2016-2018)
- Bear Market Bottoming: DAO event crash, late 2016 bottom, market trust collapse, ecosystem depression
- Bull Market Driver: ICO wave, explosive demand for ERC20 token issuance
- Bull Market Peak: January 2018, approximately $1420
- Bear Market Decline: ICO bubble burst, regulatory crackdown, massive project sell-offs of ETH, bottoming near $82, maximum drawdown 94%
- Cycle Characteristics: purely narrative-driven, many technical issues, price driven by external financing demand.
Cycle 2: DeFi-NFT Cycle (2019-2022)
- Bear Market Bottoming: prolonged bottoming from late 2018 to mid-2020, DeFi underlying protocols quietly developed
- Bull Market Driver: DeFi summer, NFT explosion; EIP-1559 burn mechanism implemented
- Bull Market Peak: November 2021, $4891
- Bear Market Decline: aggressive Fed rate hikes, Terra and FTX chain collapses; despite completing the Merge upgrade and moving through "buy the rumor, sell the fact," bottomed at $879, drawdown 82%
- Cycle Characteristics: real ecosystem use cases landed, fundamental upgrades, but macro rate hikes overshadowed positives.
Cycle 3: ETF and Institutional Cycle (2023-2025)
- Bottoming and Recovery: 2023 banking crisis bottom, staking ecosystem continues expanding, L2 scaling rapidly developing
- Bull Market Driver: expectations for BTC spot ETF and ETH spot ETF, institutional capital entering
- Bull Market Peak: August 2025, $4953, setting a new all-time high
- Current Bear Market Phase: after peaking in August 2025, entering a correction cycle, ETH/BTC ratio continues declining, underperforming Bitcoin, L2 liquidity diversion and US regulatory uncertainty suppress valuations.
II. Repeated Cycle Patterns of Ethereum (Cycle Rate)
1. Follows Bitcoin's major cycle but with a time lag
Bitcoin halving is the master switch for the entire crypto market; historically, ETH's main upward wave starts 6-12 months after BTC halving; bear markets also follow BTC but ETH's retracements are generally deeper and more elastic.
2. Each bull market requires a new narrative to ignite the ecosystem
2017: ICO; 2021: DeFi+NFT; 2025: Institutional ETF;
Without a new story, it's hard to have an independent major rally; relying solely on old logic makes new highs difficult.
3. Major technical upgrades often follow "buy the rumor, sell the fact"
The Merge is an epic fundamental innovation, involving burn issuance and eliminating miner sell pressure, but after implementation, the price fell instead of rising.
After full positive expectations are priced in, the event's realization leads to a sell-off—this is a classic ETH cycle phenomenon.
4. Two necessary conditions for bear market bottoms
① Extreme market panic occurs, with large on-chain staking losses and thorough chip exchanges;
② ETH/BTC ratio falls to historically low levels, relatively devalued against Bitcoin.
Historical bottoms are accompanied by long-term weekly-level bottoming; rapid V-shaped reversals rarely form true major bottoms.
5. Bear market retracement range
ETH typical bear market retracement: 70%-83%; extreme black swan events can reach 90%+;
A full bull-bear cycle, from top to bottom and bottom consolidation, spans about 2-2.8 years.
III. Projection Based on Historical Cycle Rate for the Present
History does not simply repeat but rhymes.
1) Time Window
If August 2025 is the cycle peak, referencing history, the full bear market bottoming window likely falls between late 2026 and early 2027.
Even if a price low is hit earlier, time is needed for weekly bottoming; panic sentiment and chip clearing are both essential.
2) Two Key Observation Indicators
- ETH/BTC Ratio: only when it returns to historically very low percentiles is it a major opportunity zone for ETH's relative value;
- Narrative Catalyst: the next major ETH rally requires a new engine: RWA tokenization of real-world assets, large-scale L2 explosion, clear US regulation, or large-scale institutional capital inflow—at least one must materialize.
3) Two Scenario Projections
- Pessimistic Scenario: continued regulatory suppression, ongoing L2 liquidity diversion, ETH underperforms BTC long-term, bear market bottom further declines.
- Neutral Scenario: Fed rate cut cycle begins + regulatory clarity, after sufficient time for bottoming, a new main upward wave arrives in 2027-2028.
4) Practical Insights
Do not mistake a quick rebound for the end of the bear market;
Without immersive bottoming and extreme panic, even if a price low appears, it is likely a rebound bottom, not a cycle major bottom.
IV. Biggest Variables: What Could Break This Historical Cycle
1. US SEC classifying ETH as a security, regulatory risk is the biggest black swan;
2. Continued L2 ecosystem liquidity diversion, weakening mainnet value capture ability;
3. Large-scale institutional allocation to Bitcoin, capital continuously favoring BTC, ETH/BTC weakening long-term.
$BTC $ETH