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The stronger Nvidia's earnings report, the more AI trading enters a "nitpicking stage"
In the past, the market only needed one phrase: demand explosion. Now that's no longer enough. Revenue beating expectations, strong orders, and continued growth in data centers—these have all been anticipated. What truly affects valuation are the less glamorous details like gross margin, memory costs, customer concentration, and #PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
The latest core PCE inflation remained flat compared to last month, with inflation stickiness still stubborn and a clear gap from the 2% target; the resilience of the US economy and employment exceeded expectations, leaving the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.
The biggest change since Wash took office is the complete weakening of forward guidance, cancellation of the dot plot forecast, and refusal to give future interest rate commitments, advocating that policy decisions rely entirely on real-time economic data at each meeting. This is also the market's biggest concern: the lack of clear guidance will amplify volatility in the bond market and risk assets.
Three speech scenarios simulation
Scenario 1: Hawkish stance (low probability)
Emphasize the slow decline of inflation, keep the option of rate hikes within the year, and do not release easing signals. US Treasury yields rise rapidly, the US dollar strengthens, BTC faces pressure at high levels, and is likely to retest the key support at 77,500‑78,000.
Scenario 2: Neutral and pragmatic (highest probability)
Reaffirm the 2% inflation target without change, continue to downplay forward guidance, only explain the Federal Reserve's framework reform ideas, and make no hints about the September rate decision meeting. The market maintains high-level oscillation, BTC continues to range between 78,000‑81,000, awaiting subsequent nonfarm payroll and inflation data releases.
Scenario 3: Dovish and reassuring (very low probability)
Acknowledge marginal cooling of inflation, signal that high interest rates can be maintained gradually, dispelling market fears of aggressive rate hikes. US Treasury yields fall, risk asset sentiment warms, and BTC is expected to challenge the 80,000 level again.$PURR ’s report explains why $HYPE is attracting attention. PURR holds ~29.3M HYPE worth ~$1.9B, with no debt, but its $30.55M profit includes unrealized gains; actual staking and validator income was ~$9.5M.
The bigger story is the flywheel: Hyperliquid fees → HYPE buybacks → higher HYPE value → stronger PURR NAV → more financing → more HYPE purchases.
PURR could become a “stock-ification” vehicle for HYPE. But with mNAV near 1.35x. #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware NVIDIA's earnings report far exceeded expectations, with data center revenue surging significantly and pushing the stock up after hours. Initially, it was expected that the storage sector would benefit as well, but instead, the leading stocks gained while the smaller ones suffered.
Micron, SNDK SanDisk, and Western Digital all plunged collectively, with only SK Hynix barely holding the red zone thanks to HBM orders. SanDisk's highest gain this year has already exceeded 500%, with a large amount of profit-taking piled up at high levels. Once positive news is realized, funds cash out and exit. Additionally, with the news of a ¥31 billion expansion in Japan, the market has started to worry about subsequent oversupply. Coupled with NVIDIA's warning about rising memory costs, capital has directly withdrawn from the high-level storage sector and flowed back into the computing power mainline.
After a sharp rise to 1585, the price quickly fell back and is now fluctuating around 1460. The 15-minute trend has already weakened, with resistance above at 1489-1494, which is a previous dense chip area. If it can't break through, selling pressure will continue to be digested. The first support below is at 1462; if that doesn't hold, it will test the low at 1440.
Many are still hoping for a surge to 2000, but in this differentiated market, one must be wary of an A-shaped drop. All the positive earnings news has already been priced in, and before high-level chips are sufficiently cleared, blindly chasing highs is very likely to catch the last leg down. Don't be misled by market illusions; in this storage rally, it's not about being bullish but about respecting profit-taking. Be especially cautious with high-level contract leverage, as a single spike can directly wipe out positions. Be patient and wait for the consolidation to end before discussing a new round of rallies.
$SNDK Grayscale CEO made a bold statement: Don't just look at the price, institutions are entering the market.
The data indeed looks good—Bitcoin ETP daily flows have repeatedly exceeded $500 million, which is 12 times the daily output of miners; 73% of institutional investors plan to increase their holdings, and 60% of Fortune 500 companies are advancing blockchain projects.
But there is a subtle narrative shift here: from "Bitcoin versus traditional finance" to "traditional finance embracing Bitcoin." Mintzberg's phrase "entering the existing regulatory framework" translates to—crypto is becoming part of TradFi.
Is this a victory or a compromise? When EY's survey becomes a source of industry confidence, and institutional allocation becomes an argument for a bull market, this industry is no longer the rebellious youth "bypassing banks."
The complementary theory of AI + blockchain is also intriguing: one is responsible for computing power, the other for trust, together forming the story template Wall Street loves the most.Caught the falling knife at 1500 on SanDisk, quick and decisive
Last night’s SanDisk scenario, I’m familiar with it, so familiar I want to slap myself.
Opened high, turned red, then plunged—three moves as smooth as Dove chocolate. I was right at the 1500 mark, watching the market, my mind racing with calculations: dropped from 2382, a deep 35% pit, earnings multiplied several times, gross margin hit 84%, there should be a rebound, right? So I hesitated briefly and went long.
Then the market schooled me, lesson after lesson.
1460 broke like it was made of paper, I was stunned. Why the drop? Not some earth-shattering bad news, just two points: first, the guidance didn’t satisfy Wall Street’s hungry wolves—they wanted 10.8 billion, you gave 10.55 billion, just a bite short, and they turned on you faster than flipping a page; second, rumors that Apple might buy storage from another supplier sent the market into a panic, as if NAND prices were about to crash like cabbage. Simply put, it had risen too much before, who doesn’t have some floating profits? When the wind shifts, they run faster than rabbits.
Do you think 1500 was a bad spot? I don’t. PE, buybacks, fundamentals, none of those are weak, but the entire storage sector is tanking, and no matter how strong SanDisk is, it can’t withstand the collective collapse of its weak teammates.
This time, consider it tuition paid to the market. Now I’m watching the show around 1440, waiting for volume to shrink and the drop to stall before making a move. Catching a falling knife too early means the knife is still falling and your hand is still bleeding. Next time, I’ll wait for it to bounce on the ground a couple of times before picking it up. $SNDK Up 25% in a week, SOL has crushed 100 underfoot, the wildest in the market
$SOL current price 107.5, up nearly 7% in 24 hours, soaring 25% in a week, rising 36.5% from 77.18 on August 18 — 9 days, directly becoming the second hottest in the top ten by market cap.
Why so strong? Three words: real money.
First, ETFs are crazy. Net inflows totaled a record 1.22 billion, with Monday’s single-day 33.5 million being the largest this year; Bitwise’s BSOL alone absorbed 950 million, who wouldn’t love a free annualized 5.7% staking yield? Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab have also joined — this is no longer retail coins.
Second, on-chain is pumped. Last week, 1.3 billion non-voting transactions set a record, DEX trading volume has beaten Coinbase and Bybit globally for 9 consecutive weeks, with 16 billion stablecoins lying on-chain waiting for the wind.
Third, supply is about to unleash a big move. Governance proposals SGP-0002 and SGP-0003 are voting; if passed, 18.9 million fewer SOL (about 1.7 billion USD) will be issued over the next 6 years, the deflation narrative is really coming.
But don’t get carried away: RSI once surged to 84, contract positions at 7.1 billion, leverage piled high, one fall could trigger a chain explosion.
Key levels: above 110, hold to see 120-135; below 100, 94.4, break down to watch the 200-day line at 81.
In short: institutional bull + deflation expectations + on-chain explosion, SOL is serious this round, but overbought is overbought — chasing highs feels good for a moment, liquidation is a funeral pyre. I’m waiting for a pullback near 100, not chasing, got it?
#Solana mainnet acceleration, will node thresholds rise?
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SOL has traded around $100 six times over the past five years, but its valuation kept changing:
2021 → $29B
2022 → $34B
2023 → $43B
2025 → $52B
2026 → $57B
Aug 2026 → $59B
Same $100 price, completely different market cap. While the chart may look similar, Solana’s valuation has nearly doubled. That’s the key point: $100 $SOL today represents a much larger network and market than the $100 $SOL of previous years.
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware SOL's community snapshots provide both popularity and tone, but not necessarily on the same side. As of 06:00 on August 28, OKX Onchain OS recorded 71 mentions of SOL in one hour, including 69 x mentions and 2 news articles; The total for 24 hours was 652. The latest hour is 2.61 times the long-window hourly average, which is about 161% higher than the 24-hour average, which can be classified as "clearly accelerating." This speed describes new discussions and is not necessarily related to market fluctuations. The text tone is 72% bullish, 7% bearish, and about 21% neutral, currently classified as "clearly bullish dominance." 55% bullish and 7% bearish in 24 hours; If there is a gap between the two windows, it should first be understood as a change in discussion structure, rather than directly defering the price target. I would separate these two lines. If the tone is excessive but mentions slow down, it means the current discussion is more positive, but new attention hasn't accelerated; If mentions increase and the bias is bearish but dominant, it may be a risk or faulty message attracting people. Even if the buzz and tone are in the same direction, it still cannot be directly equated with genuine buying. Sources are another limitation. Currently, SOL is "almost entirely driven by X." Social channels respond fastest, and the same topic can be repeatedly shared; The more concentrated the sources, the more the next window needs confirmation. An increase in news mentions does not automatically mean the event is true; the original announcement remains the final verification standard. Within 24 hours, SMorning of August 28 BTC Futures
Entry: Short around 2535-2555, stop loss at 2575, first target 2490, second target 2460.
From the 1-hour BTC Futures chart, the price has strongly rebounded from the low of 2431, surged to around 2566, then faced resistance and pulled back, currently consolidating near 2508. The short-term moving averages on the hourly chart have turned downward, exerting clear pressure on the price. The 2535-2555 zone above is a dense area of previous high-volume chips from the earlier surge and pullback, gathering many short-term profit takers and trapped positions, making it easy for the rebound to be resisted again here. MACD shows a high-level death cross downward, with bullish momentum rapidly weakening. After continuous rallies, the market needs further correction and consolidation. This is a pullback consolidation after a strong rise.
Do not chase longs; wait for a rebound to the resistance zone before entering short positions. Place stop loss at 2575; if volume breaks through this level, it indicates continuation of the bullish structure, and the strategy should be adjusted promptly. First target is 2490; after reaching it, reduce positions in batches; if 2490 is effectively broken down, continue holding and look toward 2460. During this high-level consolidation phase, operate with light positions and set stop losses properly. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ I really like and am optimistic about Axis Robotics. Unfortunately, I'm naturally clumsy, and I can never get the robotic arm tasks right. It's not for lack of trying; I sincerely gave it a shot, but still no success... This feeling is like in Sun Ge's new-new-new concept essay "My Girlfriend Jing Tian" — clearly loving deeply, yet ultimately unable to be with her. I asked ChatGPT and got a calm response: Give up and do what you're good at. Helplessly, I painfully let go and can only tearfully say to Princess @0xsexybanana: Sorry, Mom, let me love you one last time! @axisrobotics --- Back to the main topic, let's seriously talk about Axis Robotics. Recently, Axis Robotics got listed on Katalyst and announced a partnership with Binance Wallet, so the hype has definitely picked up, causing many to mistakenly think: Axis Robotics is the leader in Physical AI. But I have to pour cold water: Axis Robotics is still just a small player, somewhat like Sun Ge before he rose to fame. Next, with an objective attitude, without hype or bashing, let's re-examine Axis Robotics' position in the industry. Axis Robotics is actually the "shovel seller" in Physical AI; they don't build robots but solve what robots lack: training data. Teleoperation, task generation, simulation, data collection, quality verificationEURR begins with distribution, not scale. Public issuance started Aug 20, followed by Revolut's phased rollout to eligible users in Denmark, Poland and Portugal on Aug 26. Bridge Building legally issues the stablecoin, redeemable 1:1 for euros on Ethereum and Polygon.
The early reserve snapshot of roughly 374 euros confirms little beyond testing. The real signal will be whether Revolut can convert its 80M-plus retail users and 16M crypto users into repeat trading, transfer and payment activity. Reach creates an unusually strong launch channel, but utility must still earn demand. Not advice, just analysis.
#RevolutLaunchesEURRI am quite optimistic about Xiaomi developing its own chips.
However, the market's overall perception of Xiaomi's chips is currently negative, and many understand that Xiaomi's chips are not on the same level as Apple or Qualcomm. But honestly, Xiaomi's deep ARM customization is not as bad as people say online.
Investing often falls into a trap of comparing directly with industry leaders at the top. Comparing Xiaomi to Apple is like comparing Tsinghua or Peking University to an ordinary university—the starting points and accumulations are completely different. Those optimistic about Apple can invest in Apple, but with Apple's current valuation, I personally dare not touch it.
My logic for Xiaomi is straightforward: the stock price is low, and the company's fundamentals are basically sound. I choose to hold a low-leverage large position, betting on a future market expectation recovery and reversal.
If we objectively compare Xiaomi, Huawei, OPPO, and vivo, the strengths and weaknesses of each domestic manufacturer become clearer.
Among these, Xiaomi's relative advantages are also very prominent: compared to Huawei, it is not restricted externally, can obtain the latest ARM licenses and top-tier foundry processes, and does not have to compromise on iteration; compared to OPPO and vivo, it is one of the few domestic manufacturers that truly implements flagship main SoCs, not just imaging co-chips; meanwhile, its ecosystem in phones, cars, and home devices is larger, with chips landing in smartphones, automobiles, and IoT, and its finances are stable enough to withstand long-term costly trial and error.$COIN stock price rebounded 4.92% in 24 hours to $190.72, with an 8.3x P/S and $6.04 billion annualized revenue solidifying its valuation base, but macro high interest rates and SEC regulatory lawsuits still suppress valuation upside.
In a horizontal comparison of related US stock targets, Coinbase, with a 24-hour trading volume of $9.19M, has a market cap of $50.32B and annualized revenue of $60.4B. This outperforms MSTR, which has a $54.59B market cap corresponding to $498.35M revenue supporting cash flow, and its price elasticity is higher than HOOD, which has a $98.68B market cap and $4.93B annualized revenue.
The trading desk ranks the driving factors as follows: the Federal Reserve's interest rate path limiting risk asset valuation preferences, revenue growth determined by fees and custody fees, and compliance premium disturbances caused by SEC and DoL lawsuits.
The bullish scenario is based on the assumption of a 20% to 50% expansion in P/S valuation. If compliance advantages translate into increased trading frequency, the market will lean toward optimism. It is necessary to observe increases in 13F institutional holdings and buyback disclosures; if institutions significantly reduce holdings, the upside conditions fail.
The bearish scenario assumes a prolonged macro high interest rate environment and concentrated release of negative regulatory lawsuit news. There is a risk of market cap adjustment downward from $50.32B to a halved level. Signals to watch include slowing revenue growth and AI capex investment falling short of expectations. If trading volume expands and trading fees rebound, the bearish logic fails.
The consolidation scenario corresponds to a neutral macro preference and no major surprises in financial reports. Valuation will settle around an 8.3x P/S, with subsequent verification of gross margin and net profit through 10-Q and 10-K reports.
Core focus for the next 7 days includes changes in US macro interest rate expectations, the release of 13F institutional holdings reports, and volume support performance at the $190.72 level.
#OpenAI自研芯片亮相，推理成本成关键 #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配JPMorgan is about to launch a stablecoin. Who will win between banks and crypto-native routes?
JPMorgan is evaluating issuing its own stablecoin. Meanwhile, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Santander are forming a global stablecoin alliance.
Interestingly, there is a divergence in routes: one side is "deposit tokens" (on-chain deposits recorded on bank ledgers), and the other is "stablecoins" (1:1 pegged tokens issued by independent entities). JPMorgan wants to pursue both.
Its Kinexys platform already processes over $7 billion daily, with a cumulative total exceeding $4 trillion — this is not a newcomer entering the market, but a veteran expanding its reach.
Impact on our choice of U cards: the underlying settlement network is being reshaped by traditional banks. In the future, choosing a card will not only depend on cashback but also on which settlement channel the card uses and whether it meets compliance standards. When I compare on PayAll, I prioritize whether the settlement network is bank-grade infrastructure.TGA buybacks are just robbing Peter to pay Paul; fiscal concerns are the long-term shackles.
The U.S. Treasury is using TGA account funds to conduct Treasury buybacks. Many in the market interpret this directly as monetary easing and a positive signal, but essentially this is just a debt maturity structure adjustment, a temporary fix that does not solve the root problem. The deep fiscal pressure in the U.S. has not been alleviated.#PCEToJacksonHole #AIMonetizationBroadens #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Why do I still have confidence in storage?
The most extreme issue with storage right now is that the shortage has lasted for more than just one quarter. The CEO of $SKHYNIX Hynix recently assessed that the global memory shortage could continue until 2030; the company currently holds about 58% of the HBM market share and is preparing to invest $4 billion to build an advanced HBM4E packaging base in the United States.
$MU Micron focuses on HBM+DRAM, Hynix benefits from leading HBM dividends, while $SNDK leans more towards NAND and enterprise-grade SSDs. SanDisk's latest quarterly revenue was $8.97 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase, with data center revenue doubling; more importantly, about two-thirds of this 51% growth came from price increases, not just selling more products.
This is why I continue to be bullish on storage now: AI servers are being built more and more, and there is not only a shortage of GPUs but also a need for more HBM, DRAM, and SSDs. SanDisk and Kioxia even recently announced plans to jointly invest over $31 billion in Japan by 2032 to expand storage technology and capacity.
If I were to invest in only one company, it would undoubtedly be Hynix. But storage is ultimately a cyclical industry, so the key concern going forward is not the AI story but whether storage prices can hold steady and whether expansion speed can catch up with demand. As long as the shortage does not significantly ease, storage is far from over.
#JaneStreet持有闪迪5%，AI存储估值再受审视 Many traders are still judging current market trends based on the experience of four-year halving and old cycles. But after spot ETFs launched and traditional finance flooded in, the underlying logic of the crypto market has undergone structural changes. Some of the lessons summarized by past bull and bear markets have become invalid. Understanding the rules that have been rewritten is the only way to avoid holding onto old maps and seeking new paths in the world. This article compiles seven repetitionable market patterns, covering capital, market rotation, risk, valuation, and currency differentiation, suitable for collecting, sharing, and benchmarking the market. Rule 1: A large-scale upward trend does not equal a broad bull market; structural differentiation becomes the norm. In the old cycle market, $BTC once activated, capital flows out fully, with most coins rising in turn, and thousands of coins soaring simultaneously. The logic of the institutional era has completely changed: incremental funds prioritize allocation to compliant leading BTC, followed by small amounts flowing into ETH. A large amount of capital is locked in the ETF system, with no downward penetration into small and mid-cap coins. BTC often hits new highs, and many altcoins fluctuate or even fall negatively. A bull market doesn't necessarily mean the coins you hold will rise. A rise in total market capitalization doesn't mean wealth is distributed equally. Market dividends are concentrated in a few assets; most coins can only wait for liquidity spillover windows; if they don't arrive, they will be marginalized for a long time. A broad rally bull market has become a low-probability event; structural rallies are the market mainstream. Rule 2: ETF funds only determine the bottom, not the top. Don't equate net inflows with inevitable rises. Many people simply treat net ETF inflows as a mindless signal to go long. The purpose of institutional funds is to provide support during downturnsFor those who keep thinking about shorting, take it easy.
As mentioned in previous posts,
after this big market rally,
the first to activate is ETF capital.
The nature of ETF capital is that the more it rises, the more it buys,
and the more it falls, the more it sells.
Recently, both BTC and ETH have been very strong.
By strong, I mean I haven't seen obvious negative feedback,
mainly thanks to the continuous big bullish candles last week, and strong ETF buying power every working day this week.
On Monday and Tuesday this week, there was a net inflow of over 300M each day.
This capital effectively absorbed those who wanted to short.
This round is particularly strong for ETH, SOL, and HYPE.
HYPE's ETF capital yesterday (14.7M) was twice that of the previous day,
and HYPE also hit a new all-time high yesterday.
Under the market conditions of rising volume and price, the unlocking on the 29th may not cause a big pullback.
SOL and ETH have also seen very strong ETF net inflows in recent working days,
and this momentum is vividly reflected in the candlestick patterns.
When BTC falters a bit, ETH, SOL, and HYPE can all hold steady at high levels.
The overall candlestick pattern shows higher highs and higher lows continuously.
I believe this story is not over yet.
So don't short, don't short. #BTC突破80000美元，能否站稳新关口 #BTC surges then falls back, options expiry amplifies the key level battle
BTC has been tugging back and forth around the 80,000 level these past few days, surging up only to be pushed down again. It's clear that both bulls and bears are fighting hard at this level.
This surge and fall is closely related to the options expiry on Friday.
📌 What happened?
On August 28, Bitcoin options worth $6.44 billion expired on Deribit, involving 81,700 contracts, with 44,639 calls and 37,061 puts, overall leaning bullish.
The key strike prices are concentrated around $75,000 and $80,000, with nominal value exceeding $500 million within 5% of Bitcoin's current price. This means market makers need to hedge positions intensively before settlement, amplifying short-term volatility.
🔍 Why the surge then fall?
① Gamma hedging: the “magnetic effect” of key price levels
When Bitcoin’s price approaches strike prices with dense open interest, market makers’ hedging causes two effects — prices get “pinned” near the strike price, or once broken through, accelerate past it. BTC surged to around 80,700 then started falling, indicating selling pressure near $80,000 indeed exists.
② Max pain point far from spot price
This expiry’s max pain is in the $68,000–70,000 range, while spot Bitcoin is near $79,000–80,000, a difference of about $9,000–11,000. This divergence means market makers are motivated to guide prices toward the max pain point before and after settlement, suppressing bulls.
🎯 Key takeaway
Options expiry is a short-term disturbance, not a trend driver.
Large expiries themselves don’t determine direction; they mainly amplify the ongoing trend. The CEO of New Market Trading also mentioned expiry weeks “always sound scarier than they actually are.” About 62% of contracts will expire worthless this time, and September’s expiry size is nearly double this one.
In the short term, $75,000–80,000 is the core battleground for bulls and bears, with prices likely to fluctuate repeatedly. Medium to long term depends on ETF capital flows and macro policy trends.
For ordinary people, just knowing what’s going on is enough — don’t heavily bet on direction before or after options settlement; wait until the market passes this hurdle.
$BTC 📌This Week's Crypto Market Recap｜Short Squeeze Surge Followed by High-Level Tug of War
BTC surged 26% from 62,400 on a short squeeze, reaching a 5-month high of 81,200.
ETH rose 31% in a week, holding steady above 2,500; XRP nearly 50%, ZEC soared 70% hitting an 8-year high; total market cap increased by 474 billion in a week, with the greed index peaking at 81, indicating extreme greed.
Bears suffered heavy losses, BTC broke through 80,000 triggering 1.06 billion in liquidations; bears lost 3 billion USD over the week, with multiple instances of both longs and shorts being wiped out.
Underlying market logic: ETF net inflow of 2.6 billion in a week, with BlackRock accounting for 80%; US crypto regulatory policy shift; US Treasury repo + weak dollar supporting risk assets.
From Wednesday, whales started reducing positions at highs, causing a market pullback. Now 80,000 is the critical line: continued ETF inflows could push towards 85,000-90,000; if funds retreat, a retest of 73,000 is possible.
It's options expiry week, volatility will continue to intensify, so manage position risk accordingly.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
$ETH $SNDK $BTC Assassin Wu Liuqi
【Assassin Market Watch】
ETH current price $2519.6, Aqi's short assassination plan is as follows:
🎯 Short entry range: 2545～2555
(The short pain point wall above is near 2549, a squeeze-out level; strike as soon as it touches the wall)
🔴 Stop loss: above 2582
(Breaking the wall with a gap buffer; if it passes this line, Aqi admits defeat and won't stubbornly hold)
🎯 Target 1: 2489 (bullish pain point, take profit at the wall, first cut in the bag)
🎯 Target 2: 2450 (breakdown to watch for a deep pullback, second cut depends on fate)
⚖️ 50x light position 3% (=1.5x leverage), risk-reward ratio about 1:2, worthwhile.
---
Why does Aqi dare to strike at this position?
· Funding rate +0.235% turned positive and relatively high, bulls start squeezing to pay rent, crowded.
· LSR Trader 4.31 / Whale 4.19, both extremes biased bullish, retail investors unanimously bullish—Aqi's favorite reverse harvesting signal.
· 15m/1h spike just hits the short liquidation wall near $2549, high probability of squeeze-out realization, Aqi is just waiting for this.
⚠️ Note!
1h/4h/1d all timeframes show strong uptrend; this is a counter-trend short at the wall, only aiming to catch the spike pullback. Must exit at 2489, strike and run, never hold or fight.
Don't chase if it doesn't reach 2545, no naked shorts without touching the wall; Aqi doesn't do uncertain trades. On the morning of August 28, $BTC repeatedly spiked above 80,000, reaching a high of about 80,800-80,850; 81,500 was not a valid breakout but rather a wick sweep in the 81K-81.2K resistance zone.
Causes of the spike:
① On 8/26, about 270 million long positions were liquidated, leverage clearing was not complete;
② On 8/28, about $6.4 billion BTC options expired, with major players using the expiry date to create volatility and clear chasing longs;
③ NVDA's earnings exceeded expectations, boosting risk appetite, but after nine days of ETF net inflows, the initial value on 8/27 dropped to 42.6 million, and spot buying slowed marginally.
Technical positioning: 81.2K-81.3K is this week's dense high zone plus the 30-day high; only a breakout here opens the way to 83K-85K; below, 79.6K-80K is the first support, and losing 78.5K targets 76.5K-77K.
Intraday judgment: 80,000 was regained but not broken through, indicating healthy high-level rotation rather than a trend reversal. Holding above 81.2K → follow longs targeting 83K; breaking below 78.5K → deep correction begins. Tonight at 22:00, Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is the macro trigger for directional choice.
⚠️ Options expiry + macro events overlap, volatility expands; avoid heavy chasing orders, wait for a breakout above 81.2K or a breakdown below 78.5K to follow on the right side.
$ETH $SOL
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ Core PCE didn't drop; will Warsh suddenly turn hawkish tonight?
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
July core PCE year-over-year is 3.3%, exactly the same as last month; month-over-month it actually rose from 0.1% to 0.2%.
This data set is quite awkward: it's not like inflation is out of control; but saying it's already contained is clearly too early.
So the most important thing about Warsh's speech at 10 PM tonight isn't whether he says "hawkish" or "dovish," but whether he draws a clear line on a rate hike in September.
My personal feeling is that he probably won't close the door on it and will continue to leave a "wait for further data" stance.
For BTC, this kind of ambiguous attitude is actually the most torturous, likely causing wild swings and shaking out leverage on both sides.
$BTC 🚨 POLYMARKET’S LATEST MOVE COULD BE BIGGER THAN IT LOOKS
Polymarket’s U.S. platform withdrew its NFL player participation contracts on August 26 just one day after they had been certified.
On that same day, something else happened:
The platform certified new Bitcoin, Ether and Solana price contracts with the CFTC.
The CFTC’s own registry shows the BTC, ETH and SOL products as certified binary-option swaps, while the NFL participation contracts were marked withdrawn.
That contrast is what caught my attention.
It suggests the platform is becoming increasingly selective about which event-contract products it wants to take forward within the U.S. regulatory framework.
And crypto appears to be one of the areas moving forward.
🟠 WHY THIS MATTERS FOR $BTC
Bitcoin price exposure is increasingly being integrated into regulated financial infrastructure.
This doesn't mean more people buying spot BTC tomorrow.
But it does create another regulated avenue for market participants to express views around Bitcoin prices.
That matters as crypto continues moving deeper into traditional financial markets.
🔵 ETH & SOL ARE PART OF THE STORY TOO
What's even more interesting is that this isn't Bitcoin alone.
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
All three received certified price contract products on the same day.
That potentially signals a broader shift from treating crypto as a niche market toward building regulated financial products around multiple major digital assets.
Ethereum and Solana being included alongside Bitcoin is especially worth watching if this category continues expanding.
⚖️ BUT DON'T OVERHYPE IT
The important distinction is that CFTC certification of contracts doesn't mean the agency is endorsing the assets or predicting their prices.
It's a regulatory/product-development milestone, not a guaranteed bullish catalyst.
And Polymarket's withdrawal of the NFL contracts also shows that regulatory boundaries around prediction-market products remain complicated. Jackson Hole Speech: The Crossroads of BTC
Key Points: PCE is just the appetizer; Wash's speech is the main course. Uncertainty is the biggest risk, don't bet on direction before it emerges.
---
1. PCE: Neutral to Hawkish, No Clear Direction
July core PCE year-over-year at 3.3%, stuck just above the target and not coming down. The data itself hasn't changed much—September rate hike probability still hovers around 40%. The market isn't waiting for this data, but for Wash's interpretation of it.
2. Wash: The Biggest Unknown
Wash doesn't play by the rules—scrapped the dot plot, no forward guidance, holds 192 million in crypto assets. Will he treat Bitcoin as a risk or part of the system? No one knows. This is the biggest uncertainty.
3. Three Possible Paths
Hawkish (40%) → Emphasize inflation risk, keep rate hike option → BTC may drop below 77,000
Tai Chi (40%) → Say a lot of "watch the data" nonsense → Continue oscillating around 80,000
Dovish (20%) → Downplay rate hikes, friendly to innovation → BTC may break above 83,000
4. Conclusion
The "hawkish" nature of the data is certain, but Wash's "words" are uncertain.
Don't bet on direction before it emerges. Reduce positions, wait and see, wait for clarity—staying alive is more important than getting rich quick.
$BTC
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ 今天这盘，先把结论放前面，略强。 这会儿。BTC来到8.1万美元附近，ETH约2529美元。真正抢镜的是SOL，24小时涨幅接近12%，直接冲到109美元。XRP涨到1.46美元，HYPE来到84美元附近，OKB也站上114美元。连DOGE和TRUMP都开始加速，市场情绪明显比前几天兴奋。 这波上涨不是突然冒出来的。 美国现货比特币ETF已经连续八个交易日净流入，期间累计买入约28亿美元。前几天BTC冲击8万失败时，场外资金并没有跟着撤退。卖盘反复压，ETF资金反复接，价格才一点点磨回来了。 但今天有点特殊。 北京时间16:00左右，约63亿美元BTC期权集中到期。8万美元附近堆着大量仓位，结算前价格容易被对冲盘拉来扯去。所谓6.9万美元“最大痛点”也不用太当回事，它只是持仓结构推算出来的数字，不代表BTC今天必须跌回去。 盘面真正要看的是结算之后。 BTC如果还能守在8万美元上方，说明这次突破不是单纯的期权行情。往上先看81,300美元，放量过去，82,500—83,000美元会成为下一段目标。要是重新掉回8万下方，79,300—78,800美元附近很可能再被测试。 ETH还是老毛病$BTC & $ETH :HISTORY IS ECHOING, BUT THIS CYCLE IS DIFFERENT
In 2022, $BTC rallied after the June selloff, only to revisit nearly $16K before confirming the cycle bottom. $ETH followed a similar path.
Now, $BTC has pulled back toward $78K after briefly reaching above $81K, while $ETH remains near $2.5K. The key difference is institutional demand: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $2B in weekly inflows, supporting the recovery
Is this healthy consolidation—or another warning before volatility returns?Fundamental + breakout resonance trend market, $HYPE surges to new highs again
Current price is about $84.3, up 3.38% in 24H, previously broke through the $83 high and created a new high of $86.77; currently up about 14% in 7 days, the price has entered the historical price discovery zone. More importantly, 24H contract trading volume is about $5.1 billion, OI about $3.73 billion, leverage funds are very active, but 24H liquidation is only about $6.12 million, no uncontrolled forced liquidations occurred, indicating the rise has not been completely over-leveraged for now.
Fundamentals are also fueling the fire: AQAv2 officially launched on August 26, about 90% of USDC reserve yields will be used to buy back and burn HYPE; meanwhile, on August 27, a fee discount market went live, HyperEVM ecosystem continues to expand.
My strategy: wait for a pullback, do not chase $86. $82–83 is the first support, hold to target $90–92; a volume breakout above $92 targets $100. Reduce positions if it falls below $80, and if it breaks below $76, the trend is judged to weaken. TGA buybacks are just robbing Peter to pay Paul; fiscal concerns are the long-term shackles.
The U.S. Treasury is using TGA account funds to conduct Treasury buybacks. Many in the market interpret this directly as monetary easing and a positive signal, but essentially this is just a debt maturity structure adjustment, a temporary fix that does not solve the root problem. The deep fiscal pressure in the U.S. has not been alleviated.
From the perspective of the crypto market, this can be viewed in two layers of logic:
First layer: Only a short-term liquidity breather, not money printing or easing.
The nearly 935 billion TGA fund size looks huge, but the Treasury's use of cash to buy back Treasuries is a debt swap operation, not equivalent to the Fed's QE money printing. The total money supply in the financial system has not increased.
It merely temporarily releases the stock of funds locked in the Treasury account, optimizing the maturity structure of U.S. debt and briefly improving bond market liquidity. The risk appetite boost from this positive signal is just a pulse of short-term sentiment and cannot directly support BTC and other crypto assets to start a new round of trend-driven rallies. Blindly chasing highs based on this is unwise.
Second layer: The U.S. debt problem is a long-term constraint; the interest rate ceiling is hard to break.
U.S. federal debt has surpassed 40 trillion, with the debt scale continuously expanding. The IMF has clearly issued fiscal risk warnings, and global authoritative institutions have publicly highlighted the risks, indicating that the drawbacks of a debt-driven growth model have become apparent.
High interest expenses force ongoing fiscal pressure, and inflation stickiness combined with debt pressure will significantly limit the Fed's room to cut rates. The pace of interest rate declines is constrained, so risk asset valuations naturally have a ceiling. High Beta crypto assets will find it difficult to enter an independent bull market detached from liquidity fundamentals.RFI and Safeheron launched a post-quantum digital asset pilot this week. Participating institutions will test wallet generation and on-chain transfers on the NEAR testnet. Its signature layer uses ML-DSA-65 from the NIST FIPS 204 standard and integrates with multiparty computation (MPC) processes.
The technical focus of this test is not to prove that quantum computing can already break existing wallets, but to verify whether wallets can switch cryptographic algorithms without rebuilding the entire custody system.
Traditional wallets usually bind address, private key format, transaction encoding, and signature verification rules to the same elliptic curve system. After migrating to ML-DSA, the public key and signature sizes increase significantly, requiring hardware security modules, MPC nodes, transaction parsers, and on-chain verification logic to adapt synchronously. Simply replacing the signature function in the client does not complete the migration.
MPC does not automatically provide quantum security. It addresses the issue that private keys do not appear fully at a single point; if the parties jointly execute a traditional signature algorithm, the underlying mathematical assumptions remain unchanged.
This pilot directly incorporates post-quantum signatures into the distributed generation and signing process, testing the complete key lifecycle, including key generation, shard custody, joint signing, and on-chain verification.
Post-quantum wallets need to have "cryptographic agility": accounts can upgrade signature schemes, migrate old assets, allow coexistence of old and new algorithms during the transition period, while maintaining effective recovery and audit processes. NVIDIA #美国核心PCE持平上月, How will the Jackson Hole speech set the tone? Optical modules & high-speed interconnects (indirect conduction)
AI server internal bandwidth expansion and cluster interconnection demand are rising simultaneously. Large-scale HBM expansion corresponds to increased computing power density per server, with synchronized growth in the usage of high-speed optical interconnects and high-speed interfaces. The expansion of computing clusters will continuously drive demand for 800G/1.6T optical modules, which is a supporting benefit of computing power expansion.
💡 Market Thoughts
The main theme of the past AI market was NVIDIA GPUs; now the logic is shifting upstream: HBM storage has officially become the new bottleneck for AI computing power.
NVIDIA sacrifices short-term gross margin to lock in upstream capacity, essentially buying certainty for computing power expansion over the next 1-2 years.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Locking in a prosperous long-term contract does not mean the stock price will immediately rise unilaterally. The valuation of upstream targets, inventory cycles, and Federal Reserve interest rate fluctuations will still cause disturbances; tonight's liquidity statement at the Jackson Hole annual meeting will determine the sustainability of the semiconductor sector's rebound.现在BTC市场，两拨人在打架。 一拨是华尔街的ETF玩家，6月砸了40.6亿美元跑路，创下ETF上市以来最惨纪录。 另一拨是链上的老鲸鱼，同一时间段扫货167亿美元，扫了27万枚BTC。 两边看的都是同一个BTC，做的却是完全相反的决定。 你说，谁错了？ 我把多空双方的核心逻辑都摆出来，你自己判断： 🐻 空头的核心证据： 美联储维持鹰派，年内还可能加息 ETF连续5天净流出，累计18亿美元 短期持有者95%以上处于亏损 美元指数DXY 30天涨2.1%，10年期美债收益率站上4.5% Strategy可能卖币12.5亿美元筹资 🐂 多头的核心证据： 鲸鱼两周扫货27万BTC，超过ETF全月卖出量 长期持有者7月开始净增持 7月3日ETF重新净流入2.21亿美元，抛压熄火 EMC Labs判定市场进入"周期级熊市后期" 历史规律：ETF-鲸鱼背离出现后，60天内平均反弹20-30% 我的判断（人话版）： 现在不是"牛熊之争"，是"最后一洗"。6万美元从支撑变成了心理阻力，短期内BTC会在5.8万-6.3万反复磨。真正的趋势反转信号只有一个——ETF连续净流入+稳定币开始进场扫货。在那While Nvidia itself is strengthening, upstream sectors such as memory and optical modules are collectively rising, which is not a coincidental emotional follow-up but supported by solid order logic behind the scenes.
The earnings call revealed core hub data: Nvidia's multi-year supply commitments surged from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion, a single-quarter increase of 134%, with the vast majority of the new increment used to lock in long-term memory (HBM) capacity agreements.
CEO Huang is not merely forecasting downstream demand but is directly stepping in, using massive long-term contracts to pre-purchase and lock in upstream core capacity. The bottleneck for AI computing power expansion has shifted from GPUs to HBM high-bandwidth memory.
📌 Industry chain transmission breakdown, two main logical lines diverge:
✅ Memory (the most direct beneficiary)
Nvidia's CFO clearly stated: memory has entered an extreme price increase cycle, and prices will continue to rise next year.
Nvidia is willing to sacrifice profitability and actively accept cost increases, guiding Q4 gross margin down to 71-72%, effectively using its own gross margin as official endorsement for memory price hikes.
Large long-term contracts locking capacity + tight supply and demand price hike expectations, shortages bring pricing power; Micron MU, SK Hynix SKHY, SanDisk $SNDK all strengthened simultaneously after hours, significantly enhancing the certainty of the memory cycle uptrend. To be honest, when BTC fell below 60,000 on June 30 and touched the 21-month low of 58,075 USD, I panicked too. The Fear and Greed Index was 15, extremely fearful. My social circle was full of "bull market is over" and "zero warning". But after staying up late to analyze on-chain data, I actually calmed down. Because the data shows: the real whales didn’t sell a single drop; instead, they were buying frantically. Let me share some counterintuitive facts: Fact 1: The US Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of 4.06 billion USD in June, the worst ever. Sounds scary? But the day after June 30 (July 3), the ETF saw a net inflow of 221 million USD—selling pressure instantly extinguished. Fact 2: In the past two weeks, whale wallets have scooped up 270,000 BTC, worth 16.7 billion USD. These wallets hold 1000+ BTC and are among the most informed players in the market. Fact 3: Glassnode’s definition of "long-term holders" (wallets that haven’t moved coins for over 155 days) started net increasing holdings in July, in the range of 50,000 to 100,000 BTC. In plain terms: retail investors sold at 59,000 USD, whales built positions at 59,000 USD. Chips transferred from the weak to the strong—this is the most typical pattern at cycle bottoms. EMC Labs’ cycle model also gives the same judgment: after the big drop in June, BTC officially entered the "late cycle bear market" phase. What does late phase mean? It means the clearing is near the end, but the turning point is not confirmed yet. If you didn’t sell in June, give me a 👍 so I can see it. If you sold at 59. Sun Yuchen is trending again, this time because of Jing Tian.
But more intriguing than the gossip is this: why is the first reaction of the crypto community whenever a big figure in the space gets into trouble always "Is my coin okay?"
This reflexive panic precisely reveals one thing—the crypto market still hasn't escaped the narrative trap of "personal worship." The success or failure of projects hinges on one person, and the industry's reputation is tied to KOLs.
Will Sun Yuchen's TRX, HT, USDD, and the entire Tron ecosystem be affected? Most likely not. But the very question of "will it be affected" is the biggest irony in a decentralized world.
True DeFi shouldn't ask "What if the boss gets into trouble?" but rather "Does it even matter if there's a boss or not?".$BTC being stuck at 80k for several days is expected.
After August 17, the US $BTC ETF saw very strong capital inflows consecutively, with daily inflows of approximately 298 million, 189 million, 517 million, 606 million, 308 million, 338 million, 314 million, and 232 million USD respectively, only noticeably cooling down on the 27th.
BTC adds 450 new miners daily, which at 80k USD amounts to only 36 million USD per day, but this is not the main pressure point.
Nearly 8% of BTC circulating supply has its last moved price concentrated between 80k–82k, with nearly 5% just around 80k, making this one of the largest single cost-intensive zones currently.
Even the average cost of historical ETF investors is concentrated between 80k–82k.
Many might think that with such large ETF inflows, BTC would easily break through 80k, but my judgment is completely the opposite. If over 2 billion USD in ETF buying continues, and BTC really surges to 90k, I would actually worry that the market has been prematurely overextended.
80k can be seen as the most critical turnover zone in this bull cycle’s correction; the moment macro sentiment warms up, BTC will quickly break through upwards.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
$HYPE $ENA $TAO ETH at $2540—do you want to chase it? Let's look at the surface: 34% rise in 30 days, retail investors shout "ETH rises" From mid-August around 1800-1900 to 2540, it rose 12% in 7 days and 34% in 30 days. Market value returned to the top two, with 24-hour trading volume surging. The time to tackle challenges has arrived: hold firm and take off, fail to pull back. First thing: ETF is buying like crazy, but you might have been fooled by a short squeeze Stock net inflow of 180 million on August 25, 192 million on the 26th, nearly 700 million USD for the entire week — the strongest inflow week since 2026. BlackRock ETHA was the main force. BitMine bought another 32,400 coins, pushing its holdings to 5.847 million, close to 4.8% of circulating supply. It jumped from 1900 to 2540, and a long squeeze has already wiped out a large amount of short positions. To go further up, it's not about explosive short selling, but about real cash buying. Institutions are buying, but the pace is slowing. Second: supply is tightening, which is the toughest bottom in the medium term. The staked amount is 42 million tokens, accounting for 33%-35% of circulating supply. Combined with ETF custody and corporate treasuries, the available spot on exchanges is shrinking. Staking ETFs have already been launched (BlackRock ETHB, Grayscale ETHE). Institutions buying ETH are no longer just betting on price swings—they can also enjoy net returns just above 2%. Circulating supply is shrinking, selling interest is drying up. Institutions buying ETH offers "rental income + price increases," making it more attractive. Q4 GlamsterdaTo be honest, I was stunned when I saw this set of data—BlackRock has been buying $BTC and $ETH for 8 consecutive days, pouring in a total of $3.16 billion,
27,700 BTC plus 385,600 ETH. This is not something retail investors can do; this is institutions "stockpiling."
What concerns me even more is that BlackRock's overall crypto holdings surged from $53.3 billion to $68.4 billion in August, a monthly increase of $15 billion, or 28%.
Last week, IBIT's trading volume hit the highest positive weekly record since its launch in January 2024, with gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracting a combined $7 billion last week, directly breaking the 5-day cycle historical record.
But I also remind myself not to get carried away. Researchers at HashKey said that using single-day ETF inflows to predict BTC price movements the next day has weak predictive power; continuous inflows are more of a "trend confirmation" rather than a "leading indicator."
So my view is: this looks more like institutions systematically building positions after "bottom confirmation" in the $60,000 to $70,000 pullback range, rather than short-term speculation.
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？
#财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 最近链上巨鲸的挂单数据引起了不少讨论，四笔大额委托在比特币、以太坊、HYPE 和 ZEC 上合计接近 2.5 亿美元，乍看之下颇有几分山雨欲来的意味。不过与其被数字吓到，不如先冷静拆解这些大资金到底在表达什么。 比特币这边，一位巨鲸在 77,833 美元附近开了 46.8 枚的多单，40 倍全仓，杠杆并不低。更值得留意的是他下方 72,222 至 77,522 美元区间挂了 1,176 枚买单，上方 81,504 至 108,888 美元挂了 928 枚卖单。从挂单结构看，这位玩家其实是在赌价格围绕 77,500 到 81,500 美元做区间震荡，并没有单边看涨或看跌的强烈倾向。上下两头都留了余地，典型的区间交易思路。 以太坊那边则有另一番姿态。一位巨鲸以 25 倍全仓做空 3,000 枚 ETH，均价在 2,460 美元附近。他的买单挂在 2,000 至 2,400 美元区间，卖单则在 2,533 至 2,900 美元之间。这组数据透露出他对短期走势偏谨慎，甚至认为 2,400 美元这个位置未必守得住，愿意等更低的价格再接回来。做空的同时下方又挂着买单，说明他并不是纯粹看衰，而是想在Guys, watching the market today really made my heart race and a bit wistful. BTC finally broke above the $80,000 mark again, with US spot ETFs seeing net inflows for eight consecutive days. This money was definitely a big buy. ETH also followed suit, climbing back above $2,500. The worst off were the bears, who were liquidated nearly $370 million in the past 24 hours, nearly 70% of which were short positions. In this market, short selling is really licking blood on the edge of a knife. 📈 But excitement aside, as a seasoned veteran who has been navigating the market for years, I tend to watch the undercurrents during the celebration. There are a few news pieces today that I think are even more worth reflecting on than BTC breaking 80,000. You may not have noticed that global regulators have recently taken action on "stablecoins" and "RWAs." Domestically, seven major financial associations issued risk warnings, clearly defining stablecoins, mining, and RWA tokenization as illegal. This is the largest crypto crackdown since 2021. Even more interestingly, in judicial practice, courts have clearly defined the exchange of USDT for RMB and US dollars as "disguised foreign exchange trading," establishing a "four-layer blockade" that blocks mining, blocks payments, blocks RWA, and eliminates fraud. But the magic is that while mainland China has completely banned it, neighboring Hong Kong has introduced a stablecoin license system and allowed RWA tokenization pilots, reportedly with 80 institutions already applying. This bittersweet situation actually illustrates a core logic: regulation is not about completely eliminating the crypto industry, but about "incorporation" and "acceptance."#BTC surges then falls back, options expiration amplifies key level battles 1. Upward driving force: largely short squeeze covering, not entirely new long entries; ETFs have continuous net inflow increments, but there is strong profit-taking pressure at high levels.
2. Short-term disturbance: $6.44 billion BTC options expire concentratedly, fierce long-short battles in the $75,000–$80,000 range, volatility will be amplified.
3. Macro variables: PCE inflation stickiness remains, Jackson Hole speech sets rate expectations, a hawkish tilt will directly suppress risk assets.
——Current period is an intense event window, avoid full positions, avoid all in, keep cash buffer to cope with options expiration + macro speech induced spikes.
✔ In the volatile market phase, prioritize allocating BTC, ETF funds mainly flow into BTC, liquidity is best; $BTC
✔ $ is currently in a rebound verification phase, not a blind bull market. Hold the base position, play event-driven positions lightly with position isolation, focus on whether ETF buying can absorb high-level selling pressure, and respect the macro risks from Jackson Hole. Almost became the one chasing the high price...
Last night Micron $xMU opened +3%, I admit, my hands itched at that moment. Nvidia's earnings were so explosive, HBM is Micron's home turf, the logic loop was textbook perfect—orders at $967 were all filled.
Before submitting the order, I did one thing: I looked at the gap-up opening position, then asked myself, "If this order fills, where do I set my stop loss?" The answer was below 940, while the current price was $967. The stop loss space was 2.7%, and the position chasing in couldn't even withstand a normal fluctuation. The order was canceled.
Then came the drama: the intraday low was 911.50, closing at 914.64, down 2.53%. The brothers who chased the high at open are now starting with a 5% floating loss, and this is on a "good news realization" day.
This trade that didn't happen is worth more than most trades that did. It reminded me of three things:
1. Event-driven gap-ups are the thinnest liquidity slaughterhouses;
2. Stocks up 213% this year, the day of good news realization is the day of concentrated selling pressure;
3. Positions without a settable stop loss are equivalent to having no stop loss.
$xMU is still on my watchlist, the HBM story isn't over. But when it comes to entry points, better to wait three days than to rush a second. Going to sleep now
#美国核心PCE持平上月，沃什杰克逊霍尔讲话如何定调？ #伊阿敲定临时航道，美对伊制裁加码 August 28 ENA Observation | Stablecoin mechanisms are hot, but that doesn't mean governance tokens are risk-free
ENA returns to a high-interest area today. Rather than just looking at price fluctuations, it's better to first clarify the relationship among the Ethena protocol, USDe, and ENA. The Ethena official documentation defines USDe as a crypto-native synthetic dollar: the protocol holds spot underlying assets while simultaneously establishing short derivative positions of equal nominal scale, attempting to hedge and reduce the price volatility of the underlying assets. The underlying assets are custodied through an over-the-counter settlement scheme and diversified among multiple service providers, but this does not eliminate risks such as negative funding rates, liquidity, custody operations, and counterparty risks. When funding rates remain deeply negative for a prolonged period, the protocol design requires the reserve fund to bear the related costs, which is a factor that cannot be ignored when assessing stress scenarios. ENA itself is primarily a governance token used to elect the risk committee and participate in protocol decisions; it is not USDe, nor does it automatically gain equivalent value backing just because the USDe scale expands. Going forward, more attention should be paid to how the hedge positions, reserve fund, governance execution, and token supply change synchronously. Popularity is a topic, not a proof of safety. $ENA #ENA
For informational purposes only, not investment advice.$BTC $DOGE
Who is Sun Ge? A big shot in the crypto circle, a gray-market tycoon under border control. In the past, this kind of matter could never have spread on mainstream domestic media platforms because the demographic of people who love gossip basically ranges from teenagers to those in their 40s. Most people's first reaction when seeing this content is "Who is Sun Yuchen?" and "What does he do to make tens of billions of dollars?" When this group learns that Sun Yuchen got rich quickly through the crypto circle, it will inevitably lead some of these gossip lovers to understand or even enter the crypto space. Obviously, this runs counter to the previous suppression policies. Don't just focus on how much BTC and ETH have risen; it's interesting to dig down along the on-chain positions—who's still holding long positions, secretly trying short at high levels? After Nvidia's earnings report, what expectations are xyz:NVDA trading on-chain. To get straight to the point: looking at prices and high-performing address samples over the past 30 days, the dominant direction remains bullish, but the market is no longer in the stage of blindly buying everything to rise. The daily gains are large enough, and short-term indicators have entered a hot zone. The trend in the past few hours has already started to diverge. In the past two weeks, BTC has risen 23.66%, ETH 30.43%, and HYPE has surged even more sharply, reaching 49.21%. Just looking at these numbers, it's easy to conclude that "risk appetite has fully returned," which is what people commonly call a bull recovery. Has the bull really returned? The market has actually been uneven these days: in snapshots, BTC is at $78,826, down 0.13% intraday; ETH is at $2,491.9, up 1.33% intraday; HYPE is at $81.573, down 0.49% for the day. The strong trend remains, but the coins have already gone their separate ways. Smart money on the chain shows exactly the same divergence. We scanned 150 candidate accounts selected from the Hyperliquid leaderboard, then filtered out samples that were profitable over the past 30 days and still hold positions. In this sample, BTC and ETH are the most common#BTC surged then pulled back, options expiry amplifies the key level battle $BTC surged from around 62,000 to 81,000 in one go this week, reaching a high of 81,200 on August 25 before pulling back. Yesterday it surged again to around 80,800 but couldn't hold, then retracted to fluctuate between 80,200–80,500. This is not a crash, but a surge followed by a pullback.
Today the real volatility is in options. On Deribit, about 81,700 contracts with a notional value of $630–640 million expire at 4 PM. Calls outnumber puts, with a PCR around 0.83. Positions cluster at 75,000 and 80,000 strikes: calls at 75,000 have a notional of about $236 million, at 80,000 about $157 million, with over $500 million within 5% of the current price. The biggest pain point remains between 68,000 and 70,000, far from the current price, so don’t use that as a reason for a dump.
My view: 81,000 is the first solid resistance in this rebound. Bears are unloading here, while call options are stuck at 80,000. Market makers hedging will keep pressing the price repeatedly at this threshold. This is not evidence of a trend ending, but friction due to expiry. To be blunt: tonight is also the Jackson Hole symposium. Options expiry combined with macro speeches is likely to cause swings both ways. If 80,000 breaks, look to 78,500; only a real break above 81,200 confirms this rebound. Don’t max out leverage before expiry; the key level battle is about who cracks first, not who shouts louder.On August 26, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released July personal income and expenditure data: the overall PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year; Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Overall, year-on-year was higher than the market general expectation of 3.6%, while the core data was roughly in line with expectations. Let's clarify the timing: the data corresponds to July, which was only released on August 26; Reuters and the Associated Press conducted independent verification based on BEA data that day. The key point of these figures is not just "0.1 percentage points higher." BEA also shows that real consumer spending in July showed almost no month-on-month increase, and the personal savings rate fell to 3.0%. In other words, inflation remains significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, but real consumer momentum is weak. Policy faces the dilemma of "price pressures remaining, demand is slowing," rather than a single direction of boom or recession. The next observation point is Jackson Hole. The Fed's official website schedule shows that Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver a keynote speech at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on August 28, which is 10 p.m. Beijing time tonight. At the time of this article's release, the speech had not yet taken place, and any specific judgments about rate hikes, cuts, or asset purchases are merely speculation and should not be considered confirmed policies. Why is the crypto market paying attention? First, if the speech emphasizes lowering inflation, the market may raise expectations for how long interest rates will remain high. U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar would increase the opportunity cost of holding interest-free risk assets. Second, if the speech is more concerning,60,000 USD, broken. Bitcoin dropped to 58,995 USD, a retracement of about 52% from last year's high, and the market sentiment index officially fell into the "extreme fear" zone. But strangely — whales have stopped selling. Data from CoinShares shows that the whale selling pressure that dominated the sell-off in October last year has significantly cooled this time. So the question now is not "will it fall further," but: do these big holders know something we don't? First, why did it fall so badly? Three culprits: 🔪 Culprit one: The Federal Reserve won't cut rates The new chairman Kevin Warsh has taken a hawkish stance; although core PCE met expectations, consumer data exceeded expectations, and the market is now even pricing in a possible rate hike in July. The strengthening dollar naturally leads to selling of "zero-yield assets" like Bitcoin. 🔪 Culprit two: ETF funds are fleeing Net outflows of $1.4 billion from all-asset digital asset ETPs this week. IBIT options trading volume surged to twice the 30-day average, with put options nearly twice the call options, as traders bet Bitcoin will fall another 4.5%-10%. 🔪 Culprit three: Strategy may sell coins Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), holding about 847,000 BTC, announced it might sell coins to raise up to $1.25 billion in cash to pay preferred stock dividends and debt interest. Saylor's long-standing "never sell" narrative is shaken, causing a bigger psychological impact on the market than the actual amount sold. But! Reversal signals have also appeared: BTC community heat update: 2.03 times is just attention, not buying pressure
OKX Onchain OS recorded 146 mentions of BTC in one hour at 06:00 on August 28, including 127 from X and 19 from news.
Compared to the 24-hour hourly average, this round's speed is 2.03 times, classified as "significantly accelerated"; the sentiment is 54% bullish and 7% bearish. There is no need to force these two lines into the same conclusion: heat reflects how many people are talking, sentiment reflects the text's bias, and neither can directly substitute for trading volume and capital flow.
If the next round continues with speed, news sources, and actual market transactions together, confidence in judgment will increase; if it quickly returns to the average, this change is more like short-term noise.