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The stablecoin market is entering a different phase. For years stablecoins were mainly viewed as the cash layer of crypto: a way to move capital between exchanges park liquidity during volatility or interact with DeFi. That description is becoming incomplete. The bigger development is that stablecoins are increasingly being treated as payment and settlement infrastructure. The Scale Is Already Significant Stablecoin supply has expanded dramatically over the past few years reaching roughly $300B+❓Will $XRP replicate BTC's corporate treasury market?
Many people are still only focused on the XRP spot ETF, but an easily overlooked variable has emerged.
Evernorth (the main entity for XRP treasury) has its SEC registration effective, taking another step toward Nasdaq listing.
In the past, corporate treasury allocations were almost exclusively $BTC, but now the game has changed:
Public companies are specifically setting up vehicles to hold XRP.
Once this model works, it won't just be short-term speculative funds from exchanges; long-term institutional allocation funds might enter.
⚠️ But there is a huge trap here:
Registration effective ≠ smooth listing; listing ≠ guaranteed continuous buying of XRP.
The treasury narrative is just a new story, not necessarily a price rally.
Crypto assets are gradually evolving from pure trading chips to corporate asset allocation tools, and this trend is worth tracking.
👉 Key point to watch: whether they will continue to increase XRP holdings after listing.
Do you think this narrative can drive XRP to an independent market trend? Feel free to discuss.Walsh's appearance at Jackson Hole tonight: can he clarify the policy framework?
I believe what Walsh truly needs to provide the market this time is not the answer to "whether to raise rates in September," but a clear policy reaction function.
This is his first Jackson Hole speech since taking office. The market is highly focused because he has not given a clear interest rate path since the July meeting; meanwhile, three officials advocated for a rate hike at the July FOMC, significantly widening the market's divergence on future policy direction. 
What the market really lacks now are three answers:
First, is inflation currently the top priority?
Core PCE remains around 3.3%, clearly above the 2% target.
So if Walsh clearly emphasizes tonight:
As long as inflation does not consistently return to the 2% path, the Fed will not easily shift to easing.
Then the market will interpret this as a hawkish tone.
But he does not need to directly say "a rate hike in September is certain."
Second, under what circumstances will rate hikes resume?
This might be the most important sentence tonight.
Previously, Walsh's biggest problem was that the market did not know his "reaction function."
Investors do not necessarily want him to predict September rates but want to know:
At what level of inflation will a rate hike be triggered?
How weak must employment be to prevent a rate hike?
Are the already high long-term Treasury yields considered part of financial tightening?
Currently, the market generally believes Walsh needs to provide a clearer framework on these issues than before. 
Third, and often overlooked: U.S. Treasuries
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at a very high level.
If Walsh continues to emphasize tonight:
High long-term yields themselves are tightening financial conditions
Then the market might interpret this as:
The Fed may not need to tighten further immediately through rate hikes.
This could be a dovish signal for risk assets.
But if his logic is:
High long-term yields are a fiscal issue, not a monetary policy issue, and the Fed still needs to use rates to tackle inflation.
Then it is a completely different story.
In this case, the market might reprice:
Rate hike expectations ↑ → 2-year yields ↑ → Dollar ↑ → BTC under pressure.
So tonight I divide Walsh's speech into three scenarios:
Dovish:
Inflation remains high but emphasizes no recent acceleration; employment faces downside risks; financial conditions are already tight.
→ September rate hike expectations decline
→ Dollar and Treasury yields fall back
→ Gold and BTC benefit.
Neutral-hawkish:
Insists on the 2% target, clearly states that if inflation remains stubborn, rate hikes remain an option but does not predict September.
→ Market short-term volatility
→ Increased probability of BTC rallying then falling back, but no change to medium-term trend.
Clearly hawkish:
Directly emphasizes inflation risks remain high, believes current policy is not restrictive enough, and hints at the necessity of further tightening soon.
→ Dollar and short-term yields rise
→ BTC faces significant pressure at high levels.
Which do I lean toward?
I lean toward "neutral-hawkish but no stamp on September rate hike."
The reason is simple:
Walsh cannot ignore the 3.3% core PCE now, nor does he have enough reason to confirm a rate hike based on one or two months of data.
Moreover, he has tended to reduce forward guidance, hoping the market prices more based on economic data itself. 
So the most likely core statement tonight is:
"We are firmly committed to the 2% inflation target, but future policy depends on the combined changes in inflation, employment, and financial conditions."
If this is the direction, the market may initially feel "not clear enough."
But as long as he further explains "what conditions will trigger rate hikes and what conditions will maintain the status quo," he is effectively providing a policy framework.
For BTC, don't just listen to the speech content.
What really matters tonight is how the market trades:
Walsh's speech → 2-year Treasury → Dollar → BTC
If the speech is hawkish but 2-year yields do not continue to rise, it means the market has already priced it in.
If after the speech:
2Y yields rise rapidly + Dollar strengthens + BTC breaks key support
Then it means the market truly accepts the hawkish policy framework.
Conversely, if Walsh emphasizes the inflation target but the market sees long-term yields fall and the Dollar weaken, then BTC's high-level volatility might regain funding support.
In short: Walsh does not need to tell the market "whether to raise rates in September" tonight, but he must tell the market "what data will make the Fed hike rates and what data will make it wait." If he can clearly explain this reaction function, Jackson Hole will have achieved its purpose; if he only emphasizes the 2% target without giving policy trigger conditions, market uncertainty may continue. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Putting BTC's short-window numbers together with the full-day average makes the picture much more complete than looking at the popular rankings alone. On August 28 at 15:00, OKX Onchain OS recorded 39 mentions of BTC in one hour, including 36 times x and 3 news articles; The total volume for 24 hours was 1870 times. After calculation, the latest hour is 0.50 times the long window hourly average, which is about 50% lower than the 24-hour average. This ratio only answers whether the discussion has heated up, not whether buying has increased. If you write it directly as a breakout signal, you go a step further and make an inference that the data does not support. The tone structure is a different line. One hour is slightly bullish by 54%, bearish by 10%, neutral by about 36%, which is a "bullish clearly dominant" category; Within the 24-hour period, the trend is slightly bullish by 50% and bearish by 11%. The gap between the short and long windows is the part worth tracking going forward. In terms of sources, BTC is currently mainly driven by X. When a message is widely shared, mentions increase quickly, but independent information may not increase year-on-year. The trending list cannot tell us whether each piece of text comes from different participants, nor is it weighted by account influence or fund size. The long window can be used as background: BTC has 1,613 times in 24 hours, and 257 news reports. If the proportion of sources in one hour suddenly deviates sharply, it could mean new news first broke out on a certain channel, or it could just be that news updates haven't caught up yet. Both explanations are valid"The top of a bull market always comes with new, unexpected ways or narratives that convince you it will go even higher, breaking past lessons."
In March 2024, Bitcoin broke through 73,000. At that time, no one was talking about a bear market anymore; everyone believed Bitcoin would reach 100,000.
At the same time, people also thought that once Bitcoin broke its all-time high, altcoins would take off, because that was the pattern in past bull markets.
So many people exchanged Bitcoin for altcoins, waiting for a change of fortune.
But 73,000 was actually the peak for both Bitcoin and altcoins at that time. Later, the crypto market turned bearish, and all the profits from altcoins in the bull market were fully retraced.
The past patterns and experiences were broken once again.
The best approach is to build a trading system that does not rely on predictions.
When everyone is consensually discussing that higher peak, start reducing positions in batches, executing mechanically.
This also applies in a bear market. In June this year, everyone was discussing Bitcoin at 50,000 or 40,000; everyone was in consensus, preparing to buy the dip at 50,000 or 40,000.
This is a typical signal. When the signal arrives, don’t analyze whether it will reach 50,000 or 40,000 — it’s meaningless and has no answer.
This bull market will be the same. At the end of the bull market, completely different, unexpected new stories will appear to push the price higher.
At that time, don’t study whether the story is true or false.
Quickly sell and lock in profits.In mid to late August, BTC quickly rose from just over $60,000 to nearly $80,000; market statistics show a five-day increase of about 23.6% during this period. Afterwards, the price once surged to $81,000, then retreated to around $78,000 after some PCE indicators exceeded expectations. The price fluctuated around $80,000, resembling a market shift from chasing a breakout to testing whether the high-level sell orders could continue to be absorbed.
As of August 27, the US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days totaling approximately $3.044 billion. The single-day net inflow has noticeably declined from the phase high of $606.3 million on August 20, with $242.3 million on August 27. The continued inflows indicate that the spot capital channel is still active, but this alone cannot prove the next market phase; whether the new funds are sufficient to absorb profit-taking is a more direct observation point. For holders, $80,000 is not a conclusion; more attention should be paid to whether funds continue to absorb during pullbacks.
#BTC #比特币ETF💭Looking Back at History｜After Terra's Collapse, the Crypto World Was Completely Rewritten
The 2022 Terra/LUNA crash was a major watershed moment for the crypto industry.
Before this, the market was flooded with high-yield algorithmic stablecoins and unchecked leveraged carry trades. Capital was frantically chasing mindless high APYs, and everyone was used to earning passively with their eyes closed.
Terra's collapse triggered a chain reaction: tens of billions in market value evaporated instantly, causing a domino effect that led to the bankruptcy of institutions like Celsius and 3AC, wiping out countless investors' assets.
After the storm, industry rules quietly changed:
✅ The market began to be wary of the systemic risks of uncollateralized algorithmic stablecoins
✅ Institutional risk control standards tightened, and leverage use became more conservative
✅ Regulatory attention increased significantly, raising the importance of compliance narratives
✅ Investors stopped blindly believing in “perpetual motion machine” style high yields and started scrutinizing the underlying logic
Markets may cycle, but the lessons from the pain are hard to erase. Every time the bull market party rages, don’t forget the warning Terra’s collapse left us: behind ultra-high yields often lurk devastating risks. $LIGHT I went long on this coin. This coin currently has a circulating market cap of about 9.3 million USD, but the total contract open interest across the network reaches as high as 23 million USD, more than twice the market cap. The big players have established a large number of long positions to manipulate it. The last time a coin had contract open interest more than twice its spot market cap was $TRB. Those who experienced TRB in 2024 know how wild it was.
Coins with small market caps and high control are the easiest to spawn wild coins, so I decided to take a gamble and get in. There's a lot of upside potential; if it doesn't work out, I'll cut losses at 20%.$BTC
1. Bearish for bulls: A large amount of spot buy orders above 81.3K failed to push the price higher, showing clear absorption.
2. Bearish for bears: As shown in Figure 3, aggregated spot Delta and large holders' Delta above 100K show a strong upward trend, indicating bullish momentum remains strong.
3. Expected consolidation range is 78.6K~81.5K (Figure 1), and the price action at the SP (79.6K) left during last night's US session will determine the short-term market direction.
The bullish trend remains strong; be cautious when shorting. $BTC
First signs of weakness.
So far, this rally was driven by spot buying.
This, however, has now changed.
Spot CVD is declining while perps are pushing price higher.
This makes the move less sustainable and more vulnerable to leverage flushes.
We might see a pullback soon.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest bitcoin:native Monthly
Only 4 trading days remain until Bitcoin locks in a monthly close above the key monthly 10-day moving average and sets a new monthly closing high.
This massive reversal erased all the selling pressure from June and then some. It occurred after the first-ever monthly tweezer bottom pattern, located at the 50-day moving average, within the tightest Bollinger Bands squeeze ever, nested inside a descending wedge, which itself is nested within a larger expanding wedge.
Analysts with large followings not only missed this reversal, but their expectations for the next move were far below reality. This extremely bullish technical pattern appears against a macro backdrop of runaway government debt and an accelerating business cycle.
Infinity/21M is not just a meme, and the magnet is not the target. Breaking *above* the megaphone pattern is where things start to get interesting, and I expect this rally to destroy diminishing marginal returns. "BTC Dressed as Gold, ETH Still Playing the Loyal Follower"
The market has been looking more and more surreal lately—BTC has broken up with the US stock market and turned to hug gold's leg. Its correlation with stocks dropped from 60% to 33%, while with gold it surged from 'stranger' to 0.53, fully embodying the "digital gold" persona.
And ETH? It still maintains a 0.95 "conjoined twin" relationship with BTC—when BTC rises, it rises; when BTC falls, it drops faster than anyone else. Its correlation with gold is only 0.23, making it a total "tech stock die-hard fan."
Grayscale's research head confirms: BTC is trading on the "fiscal hedge" narrative, with US debt surpassing 40 trillion and long-term yields soaring, pushing funds to seek safe havens; ETH is still telling the "industry story," totally on a different wavelength.
I still hold long ETH positions, but seeing the data made my heart skip a beat—I realized I was betting on a "tech stock," not "gold." I've set a take-profit at 2600; once it hits, I'll exit. The rest of the profits will be left to fate, but my running shoes are already on.
⚠️ Risk: The crypto world changes faster than internet celebrities. The above is purely self-comfort; please fasten your seatbelt when trading.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Brothers, today let's talk about $DOGE.
For the bulls, there really is some solid stuff. On Binance, 78% of the smart money is long, and retail is even more extreme, with 72.8% bullish. It's rare to see retail and smart money on the same side; such consensus is uncommon for a token like Dogecoin. Plus, in early August, whale addresses bought heavily, accumulating 180 million DOGE within two weeks, propping the price around $0.07.
However, bearish signals can't be ignored either. The RSI has already surged to 77, clearly overbought. What's more interesting is that although everyone is bullish, the spot market taker buy/sell ratio is only 0.79, with selling pressure stronger than buying—someone is quietly offloading. Think about it, with longs so crowded, if the $0.09 level doesn't hold, a stampede could happen fast, and those leveraged long liquidations could crash the price.
The technicals are also awkward. $0.09 itself is a triple resistance point combining SMA 7, SMA 200, and the pivot point. With these four technical indicators stacked at one price, it will either surge or crash—no middle ground. Above, $0.10 is the upper Bollinger Band plus a psychological barrier, a tough nut to crack; below, support is layered at $0.08 and $0.07.
So this level is a gamble on size. What do you guys think? Bet on it riding the meme sentiment up, or wait for a pullback to $0.08 before jumping in? Show your positions in the comments so I can copy your homework.#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
Looking at this AI earnings season, a very core change has emerged.
The data remains solid. Nvidia's Q2 revenue doubled, with data centers accounting for over 90%. Marvell also exceeded expectations, and next quarter's guidance looks good.
Interestingly—software side has started delivering results in volume.
CrowdStrike's revenue grew 26%, new ARR increased by 51%, and they raised their full-year forecast. Salesforce's AI product annualized revenue is close to $4 billion. Okta also saw growth. AI is no longer just a concept in PPTs; it can truly generate cash flow.
Of course, not everyone is laughing last. Synopsys's stock price came under pressure after its earnings report; the market no longer treats all AI companies equally. Whoever can build a repeatable recurring revenue model will continue to enjoy a high premium; otherwise, it's no different from hype.
After this earnings season, the market's core question has shifted—from "Is there really demand for AI?" to "Who can convert AI investments into real money?"
This is crucial for the crypto space. The US stock market has already started eliminating companies that only tell stories; AI projects in crypto are no different. Pure hype will be accelerated in cleansing, and funds will concentrate on projects with real revenue. Once recurring revenue on the software side is established, it improves the profitability quality of the entire tech sector. As crypto is a high-volatility asset, it will benefit in the long term.
AI has moved from "who burns money faster" to "who can make money." $ETH's trading volume today is even stronger than Bitcoin's, but the price is like a deflated balloon. I've been watching the 2500 level for three days, and it just can't hold. So all the trading volume is for nothing. Bitcoin, you need to move; if you don't, I won't dare to move on my own.
TRX is stuck at 0.34, moving slower than my grandma walks, completely stuck both up and down. Watching it is less interesting than watching ants move; at least ants know where they're going.
$SOL has reached 110, up 44% this month. The base position in hand can finally stand tall, but the sharp rise makes me nervous, a pullback could come anytime. For those who haven't gotten on board, don't rush; wait for a pullback near 100. Wouldn't it be better to save the money for a hotpot dinner with me instead of chasing highs?
$BTC is playing tug-of-war around 80,000 today. The problem is that purchasing power in the US can't keep up; Coinbase premium is negative, and without US buyers stepping in, even pushing to 81,000 is tough. The good news is the macro environment is strong, supported by the logic of a weakening dollar. ETFs have had a net inflow of 2.6 billion USD over the past 8 days, so the drop isn't deep.
In the short term, focus on the 79,000 to 81,300 range for consolidation. Only when volume breaks through the upper edge or ETF inflows accelerate again is it a signal to add positions.$BTC
First signs of weakness.
So far, this rally was driven by spot buying.
This, however, has now changed.
Spot CVD is declining while perps are pushing price higher.
This makes the move less sustainable and more vulnerable to leverage flushes.
We might see a pullback soon.Brothers, don't sleep tonight. At 10 p.m. Beijing time, Fed Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole. It's been three months. Since taking office, this guy has done three things: canceling forward-looking guidance, stopping updates on bitmap plots, and refusing to explain policy logic at press conferences. The market has gone crazy. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries has surged to its highest level since 2007. Gold is approaching a three-month high. BTC is fluctuating around $80,000. Every word Washi says tonight is pricing the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin. First, why the Fed's credibility has collapsed. First, a communication vacuum. At the July FOMC meeting, 9 votes to 3 remain unchanged. At the press conference, Wash refused to explain why—he directly said, "Let the market raise rates on behalf of the Fed." When asked under what circumstances a rate hike would happen. He didn't answer. He was asked if the inflation target would be adjusted. He didn't answer. What was the result? The bond market experienced the most severe sell-off in years. Second, the Treasury Department added to the chaos. Treasury Secretary Bescent announced last week to expand the scale of long-term Treasury repurchases. The 30-year yield fell 10 basis points that day, but rebounded the next day. The market was completely stunned: who really calls the shots between you two? The FX director at Toronto Silver Gold Bull quoted: "Walsh wants to cut back on intervention to make market signals clearer, but the Treasury is distorting these signals. If Walsh doesn't clarify his position on Friday, the dollar could drop sharply." Third, the market is "raising rates" for the Federal Reserve. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries once broke through 5.3%, the lowest since 2007Crypto momentum is waking up.
$BTC above $80K is pulling risk back into the market, with $ETH and $SOL joining the move. Hyperliquid and Stellar are also showing strength as liquidity returns.
But the real test is next: can alts keep running without Bitcoin losing support?
I’m watching volume, resistance, and macro closely.
#WalshPolicyFramework #IranOpensHormuzLane #GoldVsBTCETFFlows "Waller's Night Banquet at Jackson Hole: Hawkish Talk, Dovish Action"
Waller takes the stage tonight with a set script: hawkish rhetoric in words, no rate hikes in action—it's an election year, who dares to really poke the interest rate hornet's nest? Most likely, he'll play the "debt swap magic," exchanging long-term debt for short-term debt to suppress long-end yields, then after the election, stage the "rate cut timing is ripe" act.
Market signals: ETF funds for BTC and ETH continue net inflows, with buying pressure holding strong; U.S. stocks are internally divided, Nvidia stands alone, AI smaller players are already weak. If AI can't drive momentum, overflow funds might rush into the crypto space to stir things up.
Short-term script: BTC and ETH will first undergo a shakeout to clear floating positions, then leverage policy expectations plus incremental funds to push upward.
⚠️ Risk: Macro speeches are even more volatile than predecessors' promises; the above is pure speculation, please prepare quick-acting heart medicine for your trades.
$BTC $SOL
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Just now, mysterious funds dropped 21 million euros! After this French company received the money, the first thing it did was to buy Bitcoin... With this batch of funds landing, its potential total holdings will rise to 3,415 BTC. In the current crypto asset narrative, this position is already enough to make it a highly benchmarked “Bitcoin proxy stock” in the European market. French listed company Capital B raised 21 million euros through a directed share issuance (ABSA) and increased its Bitcoin holdings, essentially replicating the U.S. stock MicroStrategy’s “equity financing—coin hoarding—market cap expansion” capital flywheel. This is far from an ordinary announcement; it is another landmark event of the European capital market incorporating Bitcoin into the core treasury assets of enterprises. $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Institutional funds currently dominate; identifying sector rotation quality from the perspective of capital structure
BTC remains the ballast stone of the entire market, determining the overall market safety cushion; ETH is used to gauge the risk appetite of institutions versus retail investors. When $BTC enters a high-level consolidation phase without continuous unilateral rallies, focus should be on whether funds continue to cluster at the top or are willing to spread out into niche sectors. This round focuses on tracking the directions of liquid staking + on-chain real yields + derivative tools to observe the possibility of collective sector rallies.
🟠BTC｜Market foundation and institutional capital benchmark
🔵ETH｜Risk appetite calibration scale
🟣LDO｜Leader in liquid staking
🟢EIGEN｜Core of the re-staking sector
Two sets of observation criteria to identify effective rotation
First, look at relative strength and capital background.
Do not only watch BTC price fluctuations; focus on whether the ETH/BTC ratio can steadily rise, while also observing if spot ETF funds maintain continuous net inflows. A rising price ratio combined with sustained institutional capital inflows is the prerequisite for opening risk appetite; if the rise is merely driven by contract leverage pulses, the sustainability of the market will be greatly reduced.
Second, distinguish between independent speculation and sector resonance.
Avoid chasing single-day violent rallies of individual tokens; many token surges are just short-term switches of existing funds. Real sector opportunities require multiple targets within the sector to simultaneously increase volume, on-chain business data to improve synchronously, rather than relying solely on news-driven stimuli.
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 $6.4 billion in options have settled, BTC didn't crash: The real directional choice is at 22:00 tonight
BTC surged to around 81,500 last night then pulled back to 80,000, indicating that selling pressure between 81,200 and 81,500 remains heavy, but there is also support below.
More importantly, about $6.44 billion in BTC options have settled today. With 81,700 contracts and a maximum pain point around 68,000–70,000, the spot price was not dragged to the so-called "pain point," proving again that the maximum pain point is not necessarily a price target.
Now the only real variable left is 22:00 tonight—the debut of Wash at Jackson Hole.
If the speech is hawkish and US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen in sync, BTC could fall below 79,000 and may need to defend 78,000 or even 76,800; if the tone is restrained and 80,000 is regained with volume, the market still has a chance to challenge 81,500 again.
The derivative pressure this afternoon has been released; the macro pricing tonight is the main event. No need to rush into the first spike—wait for US Treasury yields, the dollar, and BTC to give the same direction. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ 🇨🇳 BTC is currently hovering around $78,000
The current market panic is more due to BTC falling back from the $81,250 high rather than a clear trend reversal in the market.
In my view, this looks more like a normal capital rotation and profit-taking after a rapid rise.
BTC has temporarily pulled back after the surge, but institutional funds have not significantly withdrawn. Recently, spot ETFs still maintain inflows, indicating that the core market demand remains.
📌 So what really needs attention now is not a single pullback, but whether funds are continuously exiting.
If ETF inflows continue and BTC can stabilize in the key support area, then this pullback may just be a normal correction within an uptrend.
🔥 Price pullback ≠ trend reversal.
Next key focus: whether BTC can regain and hold above $80K, and whether institutional fund inflows can continue.
#WalshPolicyFramework
#AIShiftsToSoftware
#BTCOptionsExpiryTestAt 10 PM tonight, the real test for BTC arrives: 9 consecutive days of capital inflow—can it withstand the Wash test?
A significant signal is emerging in the crypto market: On August 27, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $242 million, and the ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of about $235 million, both marking the 9th consecutive trading day of net inflows. The capital flow indicates that institutional support has not noticeably waned despite BTC approaching the $80,000 mark.
But the real factor deciding short-term volatility tonight is Wash.
Inflation remains above the 2% target, multiple Fed officials continue to warn of inflation risks, and the dollar remains near a one-week high. The market needs to judge whether Wash will continue to emphasize "higher rates for longer" or leave room for future policy easing.
Key BTC levels to watch:
**Holding above 80,000:** Continue to challenge 81,200–81,500;
**Breaking previous highs:** Further observe 84,000 above;
**Falling below 78,000:** Short-term structure weakens, first look for support near 76,800.
So don’t just focus on the first spike tonight.
ETF inflows determine if there’s money to catch the downside; Wash determines if capital dares to push higher. The true direction depends on macro expectations and spot capital giving the same answer. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件
NVIDIA and Marvell continue to validate the rigid demand for hardware computing power and network connectivity. Marvell's revenue surged 37% year-over-year, and its guidance for the next quarter also exceeded Wall Street expectations. But the more intriguing signals come from the software side: CrowdStrike's quarterly revenue grew 26%, net new annual recurring revenue soared 51% to $333 million, and it raised its full-year outlook. Salesforce and Okta also won a surge in market performance with solid results and improved guidance.
Putting these data points together releases an extremely critical turning signal.
The market discussion focus has completely shifted from whether AI demand exists to who can truly convert AI investment into new orders, recurring revenue, and free cash flow.
In the previous phase, as long as a company was associated with the AI concept, hardware shipments could drive a market frenzy—this was a crude expectation race. But today, investors no longer treat all AI stocks equally. Hardware procurement always faces the pulse and digestion of capital expenditure cycles, while once the software side forms subscription stickiness based on workflows and security entry points, it brings a growth curve that is far more stable and lasting than one-time hardware purchases.
The next phase to truly enjoy valuation premiums will not be companies with AI visions written all over their PPTs, but those commercial winners who can consistently generate real cash flow on the books.
After reviewing this round of earnings, do you think the main capital flow in the second half of the year will accelerate the rotation from hardware to software?No surprise from PCE, so why did BTC still drop?
Before the data release, the market had already priced in the scenario of "moderate inflation and expected rate cuts." Core PCE stayed flat at 3.3%, and consumption even exceeded expectations — the economy hasn't collapsed, so rate cuts can't come quickly. With expectations unmet, funds naturally took profits first.
Additionally, the contract leverage artificially pushed a false breakout at 81,500, which spot couldn't hold at all, so the surge and subsequent pullback was inevitable.
From a technical perspective, there is support in the 78,000-78,500 range, and a stronger chip zone at 77,000-77,500. As long as this area isn't broken, the structure remains intact.
What do you think about Jackson Hole tonight? Is Wash leaning hawkish or dovish? Is your position set according to this expectation?
$BTC 全球市场今晚迎来关键定价时刻。 美联储主席凯文·沃什将在杰克逊霍尔发表上任后的首次核心演讲。当前BTC徘徊在8万美元附近，美债市场高度敏感，黄金、美股与加密资产都在等待同一个答案： 面对仍然顽固的通胀，美联储准备容忍多久？ 最新7月PCE同比3.7%，核心PCE维持3.3%，距离2%目标仍然明显偏高。数据公布后，利率期货一度将9月加息25BP的概率从约36%推升至44%。与此同时，Schmid、Hammack等联储官员近期连续释放鹰派信号，说明内部关于“是否需要进一步收紧”的争论并没有结束。 因此，我认为今晚的基准剧本并不是“突然大鸽”，而更可能是： 措辞偏鹰，但不给明确加息承诺。 沃什需要维护美联储对抗通胀的可信度，但又未必愿意提前锁死9月政策路径。市场真正需要观察五件事： ①他是否认为当前3.50%-3.75%的利率已经足够限制经济；
②是否明确提出再次加息的触发条件；
③如何评价近期长端美债收益率的快速上行；
④是否仍坚持减少前瞻指引；
⑤通胀、就业、增长三者中，下一阶段谁拥有最高政策权重。 Reuters指出，沃什上任三个月以来一直采取“少即是多”的沟通方式，而今晚最大的压力，#AIShiftsToSoftware AI hardware proved companies are willing to spend. Software now has to prove they're willing to pay. Strong results from CrowdStrike, Salesforce and Okta suggest monetization may finally be moving beyond GPUs and data centers into recurring software revenue.
That's important because infrastructure built the AI boom, but applications need to create the returns. If ARR, margins and FCF keep improving, the next AI winners may be the companies monetizing compute, not selling it刚刚盘面突然加速下杀。 BTC、ETH同步跳水。 这种时候，群里最先出现的往往不是分析，而是两个字： 跑吗？ 但越是这种突然加速的行情，我越不愿意第一时间跟着情绪做决定。 因为你必须先搞明白： 这到底是趋势反转，还是一次集中释放风险？ BTC刚刚经历了一轮非常猛烈的上涨 别忘了，BTC此前从大约 62,000美元一路冲到80,000美元上方，一周时间完成了极其夸张的反弹。 昨夜甚至一度摸到约 81,280美元。 这么快的上涨之后出现急跌，本身并不奇怪。 真正值得注意的是： 这轮上涨并不完全是“新增多头疯狂进场”。 数据显示，BTC上涨过程中，期货未平仓量反而下降到了近五个月低位。 这意味着此前的大涨，很大一部分动力来自： 空头平仓 + 空头爆仓。 也就是我们经常说的： 逼空。 空头被迫买回来， 价格快速上涨， 又触发更多空头止损， 最终形成连续上涨。 但问题也随之出现： 当该爆的空头基本爆完以后，谁来继续追？ 所以今天这波下跌，我认为至少有三股力量同时存在 第一：80,000—81,000本身就是压力区 BTC冲上80,000以后，并没有真正完成有效突破。 现在市场真正需要攻克的，What truly determines BTC's direction tonight is not how hawkish Waller is, but whether long-term U.S. Treasury yields can be suppressed.
Jackson Hole has entered a critical moment; the real "pricing anchor" for global assets is no longer just the policy interest rate, but the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields.
Recently, the 30-year Treasury yield briefly rose to about 5.3%, the highest since 2007. Long-term financing costs are directly suppressing valuations of tech stocks, gold, and crypto assets.
Tonight, focus on two scenarios:
**Optimistic:** Waller remains hawkish on inflation but acknowledges that current financial conditions are sufficient to restrain it and ease pressure on long-term rates. If the 10-year and 30-year yields fall together, the dollar weakens, and BTC reclaims $80,000, there is a chance to challenge $82,000–$85,000.
**Pessimistic:** Policy communication fails, the market continues to price in "higher rates for longer," the 10-year yield returns above 4.7%, the 30-year pushes back to 5.3%, and high-duration tech stocks and BTC may face concentrated profit-taking.
So don’t just watch BTC tonight.
What Waller says is superficial; how Treasury yields move is the real answer for the market. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SNDK
Just now, we were talking about South Korea's KOSPI hitting a historic high
Then suddenly KOSPI dropped
Tech has been constantly releasing good news these days
Sometimes Nvidia exploded
Sometimes Okta and CrowdStrike exploded again
Sometimes South Korea's KOSPI hit a historic high again
Damn, with so many tech positives coming out
Logically, these AI chip sellers in South Korea should collectively take off, right?
But they didn't
South Korean investors thought it would take off today
So why is it still falling?
South Korea's KOSPI weakened today
At one point in the morning session, it fell below 6900
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also retreated
I now seriously suspect
All those positives earlier were just manipulations by big players to cut this wave of retail investors 😂
But we also need to reflect
Why?
It feels like the beautiful prospects of AI
Suddenly cooled down
This shows the market is starting to doubt whether AI capital expenditure can keep surging
Funds collectively fled the Korean tech stock sector
This indicates one thing
The market is no longer easily excited
AI is indeed impressive
But has the stock price already peaked ahead of time? 😂
Once this news came out
Storage tokens like SanDisk and on-chain AI concept coins will directly face pressure
SanDisk has been dropping like crazy these past two days
The market has been acting like a lunatic these days
#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙 Shorted at the 81500 resistance level, successfully captured the wave pullback profit
On the 4-hour chart,$BTC repeatedly tested the previous high at 81520, facing continuous resistance. The bullish momentum gradually weakened as the upper Bollinger Band formed strong suppression. The price touched the high multiple times but failed to break through effectively.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest #AIShiftsToSoftware The latest earnings season suggests that AI monetization is expanding from hardware into enterprise software. Nvidia’s strong results confirmed continued demand for computing infrastructure, but Salesforce, CrowdStrike and Okta also delivered better-than-expected results. Salesforce raised its full-year revenue guidance, while CrowdStrike highlighted stronger demand for protecting AI systems and Okta reported dozens of deals involving AI-agent identity security.
This broadening matters because the AI investment cycle cannot depend permanently on chip purchases alone. Businesses must eventually earn returns through software, automation, security and customer-facing applications. The strongest platforms may successfully replace traditional per-user pricing with charges based on agent activity or completed work. However, investors should separate genuine recurring revenue from temporary enthusiasm. Software companies still need to prove that AI products improve customer retention, margins and cash flow rather than simply increasing computing expenses.Net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, with over $3 billion accumulated in August — the $BTC ETF's capital curve is drawing a textbook-level upward trend.
On August 28, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $242.3 million, extending the consecutive net inflow record to the 9th trading day. BlackRock's IBIT contributed $277.6 million in a single day, leading the inflows, followed by Ark's ARKB with $29.7 million and Bitwise's BITB with $21.7 million.
Looking at a longer perspective, the numbers are even more impressive. The cumulative inflow over 9 trading days is about $2.8 billion, and the total inflow so far in August has surpassed $3 billion, making it the strongest month since 2026, roughly double the scale of April. The total net assets have risen to $100.9 billion, with a historical cumulative net inflow reaching $54.832 billion.
The relationship with price deserves a separate look. BTC has rallied from around $78,000 to above $81,000 in the past week, with an August gain exceeding 28%. The continuous inflow of ETF funds provides stable buying support but is not the sole driver — short squeeze and improved macro expectations are also simultaneously at work. What truly matters is sustainability: 9 trading days, $2.8 billion, the second strongest monthly performance in history — this is not a retail sentiment-driven spike but institutional capital systematically building positions.
When ETFs shift from "occasional inflows" to "almost daily inflows," the market's pricing logic has been rewritten. On the directional front, there is reason to be more optimistic.$BTC is moving with $XAU, $ETH is still moving with BTC
Lately, I've been feeling more and more strongly that BTC and ETH seem to be taking two different paths.
BTC is becoming less and less related to the US stock market and more and more like gold. The 90-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from 60% at the beginning of the year to 33%, while the correlation with gold has risen from nearly zero to 0.53#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest 现在这盘面，我反而不想继续追着$BTC 喊“突破”。BTC刚冲到 $81,326附近后又回到$80K下方，说明$80K以上的获利盘确实不轻。 但有意思的是，资金并没有明显撤退。 截至现在，全球加密市场总市值约 $2.68T，24小时成交额接近 $99B，而且成交量环比明显放大；稳定币24小时成交额超过 $103B。 更重要的是，BTC现货ETF昨天又流入约 $242M，连续第9天净流入。过去7个交易日累计流入已经达到约 $2.5B。 所以我现在的判断是： 这不是一个“没人接盘的暴拉”，而是一边突破、一边换手。 接下来真正值得看的反而是山寨。 $ETH已经重新站上$2,500附近，如果它能够把这个位置从压力变成支撑，我会开始关注$2,800。ETH整个8月的ETF流入也明显改善，月度流入已经超过$1B。 $SOL则是另一条线。 BTC如果继续在$80K附近横盘，而SOL还能保持强势，这就是资金开始主动寻找Beta的信号。现在市场已经出现资金从BTC向SOL扩散的迹象。 然后我会继续盯： $HYPE——看链上衍生品交易量； $XRP——看ETF和支付叙事； $LINK——看RWA和预言机；Hormuz exports have recovered to 70%! $CL back to 83, how much longer can the geopolitical premium hold?
Brothers, oil tankers in Hormuz are moving again—Kuwait and Qatar's export volumes have recovered to 70% of pre-conflict levels, combined with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, about 7-8 million barrels per day are transported through the strait, higher than the 4 million barrels in mid-July. This is the most direct sign of easing on the supply side.
News of Russia escalating the conflict gave a brief boost, but supply recovery is the dominant force. The geopolitical premium is fading; oil prices can't be sustained by rhetoric alone.
Looking at the K-line: 83.15 is near the Bollinger middle band, MACD shows a death cross, RSI has fallen below 50. Resistance is at 85-86 above, support is at 80-81 below. Short-term bearish bias, but limited room below 80.
Gongming's view: Hormuz recovering 70% is a solid supply return; the Russian conflict can only hedge short-term and won't change the direction. At 83, it's easier to go down than up, but this decline has already covered most of the way, with limited space near 80.
Trading strategy:
Short: enter shorts on rebounds near 84.5-85.
Long: enter longs on pullbacks near 81-81.5.
Remember, the geopolitical premium is dissipating; don't expect it to hold much longer. Follow Zhao Gongming to understand the struggle between geopolitics and supply-demand. #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 风险提示：本文仅为市场客观复盘，不构成任何投资建议，加密资产波动极大，务必注意风险。 进入机构深度参与的阶段后，市场评判资产的标准不再单纯依赖共识与叙事，而是转向更务实的价值捕获能力。比特币和以太坊的价值来源完全不同，BTC依靠稀缺性与储备资产定位捕获流动性溢价，ETH则需要依靠网络生态的经济活动捕获价值，二者定价锚的差异，会在震荡行情中持续拉开强弱差距，也是后续资金分配的核心依据。 比特币的价值捕获逻辑十分清晰，总量恒定2100万枚的通缩属性，叠加全球另类储备资产的定位，使其成为宏观流动性的直接受益标的。ETF资金持续流入，本质是全球资本对冲通胀、分散资产风险的配置行为，机构不需要BTC产生现金流，只需要它具备稀缺性和可交易性。价格下跌时，长期配置资金会分批承接；价格快速冲高，机构会基于风险收益比止盈，这种行为模式让BTC的波动更趋于理性，极端暴涨暴跌的幅度相比过往有所收敛。上方历史套牢盘依旧是短期压力，但长期筹码结构稳定，回调的底部支撑力度较强。即便宏观流动性出现阶段性收紧，BTC的下跌空间也会因为机构底仓的存在被限制，它的定价锚绑定全球大类资产的风险溢价。 以太坊的价值捕获逻辑，Wash's Jackson Hole speech at 10 PM tonight! BTC's critical 80,000 level life-or-death battle, three trend scenarios predicted in advance
At 22:00 tonight, Wash will appear at Jackson Hole. The market's biggest concern: can BTC hold the 80,000 level?
First, clarify the current market anxieties:
Since Wash took office, he directly removed the FOMC forward guidance, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke 5.3%, and three Fed officials have supported rate hikes, maximizing policy uncertainty. The industry generally believes: this speech is unlikely to give a clear interest rate commitment or directly set policy tone.
Three scenario simulations directly correspond to market trends:
1. Highest probability: continue evasive tactics
Avoid interest rate topics, only discuss AI, productivity, and Fed framework reform without short-term guidance; the market remains in a volatile tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
2. Hawkish stance (bearish for BTC)
Emphasize inflation resilience releasing rate hike signals; the 80,000 level will likely fail, with a downside retest in the 77,000-78,000 range.
3. Unexpected dovish stance (bullish for BTC)
Acknowledge that high long-term bond yields have partially replaced the tightening effect of rate hikes; BTC holds above 80,000 and attempts to test 81,000-82,000.
⚠️ Core reminder: do not bet unilaterally on bulls or bears!
This speech itself is unlikely to provide a clear conclusion; the market will ultimately rely on economic data for validation. Short-term volatility will only intensify, so manage risk well and avoid heavy speculative positions.
$BTC $ETH #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #财报观察员: AI demand spreads from hardware to software. After reading Nvidia's financial report, my biggest feeling isn't that Nvidia is rising again. Rather—the AI capital spending game isn't over yet. Nvidia's latest quarterly revenue reached $96.2 billion, with data center revenue about $89 billion, and the company's next quarter revenue guidance is even more than $108 billion. At the same time, the company expects revenue growth of about 70% in the next fiscal year, clearly above previous market expectations. After the earnings report, Nvidia's stock price rose about 8.7% in a single day. This is not an ordinary company's financial report. Nvidia now is increasingly like a risk appetite thermometer for the entire tech market. Why is the whole market focusing on Nvidia? Because the market's real concern is no longer whether AI is powerful. No one has debated this question for a long time. What the market really worries is: how much longer can such crazy AI capital spending last? Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and more AI labs, enterprises, and sovereign capital are all continuing to purchase computing power. As long as these companies are still willing to invest aggressively in data centers, there will still be demand for NVIDIA's GPUs. And as long as NVIDIA's orders continue to grow, the market will believe that the AI investment cycle has not yet ended. The most important aspect of NVIDIA's earnings report this time is that it temporarily dispels this doubt. Reuters revealed that NVIDIA expects revenue to grow by about 70% in the next fiscal year ending January 2028The entire market is waiting for BTC to break through, but tonight we must be more cautious of a “hawkish surprise.”
What is most worth being wary of now is not the lack of bullish sentiment, but the overconcentration of bullish expectations.
BTC is approaching $80,000 again, with ETF funds flowing back, short covering, and improved liquidity expectations, leading the market to generally anticipate a dovish signal from Walsh at Jackson Hole.
But on the other hand, we cannot ignore that July’s PCE year-on-year is still at 3.7%, core PCE at 3.3%, clearly above the 2% target; meanwhile, Fed officials such as Schmid, Hammack, and Goolsbee have recently expressed concerns about inflation.
Interest rate futures previously indicated about a 40% chance of a rate hike in September, showing that the market has not formed a consensus on rate cuts.
So the real risk tonight is the expectation gap.
If Walsh leans dovish and $80,000 holds, BTC may continue to be squeezed higher;
but if he clearly emphasizes inflation stickiness and endorses higher rates for longer, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may strengthen simultaneously, and high-level long positions will face rapid repricing.
More importantly, many funds have already bet in advance on a “positive speech.”
When everyone is waiting for the same bullish candle, the biggest risk is often not the negative itself, but that the outcome is not as dovish as the market imagines.
Don’t just focus on BTC tonight. After Walsh’s speech, whether U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and BTC move in the same direction is the true confirmation of the trend. $BTC #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SOL outperforms most altcoins, fueled by record‑high Solana ETF volume & institutional inflows.
As a high‑beta asset, it rallies sharply on risk‑on sentiment yet drops much harder than blue‑chips on liquidity fears.
The Korea rate‑hike reminds us risk appetite can fade fast. Trade high‑beta tokens short‑term, avoid heavy long‑term holdings.July's capital flow gave a clear signal: Ethereum became the preferred choice among institutions. Spot ETF data showed a net inflow of about $365 million for $ETH that month, more than twice the size of Bitcoin's. However, entering August, the narrative quickly shifted, with funds flowing back into Bitcoin. In the past seven trading days, Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted about $2.5 billion cumulatively, marking the strongest consecutive inflow since last October.📊
This rotation is not accidental. Bitcoin currently holds steady near $80,000, and Ethereum has rebounded above $2,500, with both assets receiving bottom support from institutional funds. But the market's short-term momentum clearly favors Bitcoin. Behind this rotation lies both an adjustment in macro liquidity expectations and a re-evaluation of risk-reward ratios by different capital sources.💡
It is worth noting that sustained net inflows through ETF channels usually reflect allocation behavior rather than short-term speculative buying. This means the attitude of funds is relatively firm, and if the macro environment does not change drastically, the trend may have some continuity. However, institutional behavior can also quickly shift due to data fluctuations, as history has shown multiple times. Currently, observing the inflow pace for the remainder of August is more meaningful than focusing on daily price swings.
Risk warning: Crypto assets are highly volatile, and ETF capital flows do not represent future returns. Please view market changes rationally and manage risks properly.This morning $BTC held above the 80,000 mark, surged to 80,844 intraday before pulling back, with a weekly gain of 23%, marking the best August since 2017! $ETH held above 2,500, and $SOL led altcoins with a 24% weekly rise.
This round is very solid: spot ETFs have seen eight consecutive inflows totaling $2.8 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT alone taking $2.02 billion; gold + BTC ETFs attracted a record $7 billion in five days, signaling a full return of "currency devaluation trades." More importantly, futures open interest dropped to a two-month low while prices rose 24%, driven by spot non-leveraged demand, making the structure healthier than in the first half of the year. Coinbase's premium over Binance returned for the first time in three months, with U.S. institutional funds flowing back.
However, the Fear & Greed Index at 82 has entered the greed zone, resistance at 80,820–82,500 is stuck at the ETF cost line and the 50-week moving average, combined with tonight's speech by Powell with uncertain hawkish or dovish tone. When sentiment reaches extremes, it signals phased profit-taking rather than an all-in entry for chasing the rally.So... back to storage, here’s what we have now:
$SKHY CEO stated: “We expect [storage] shortages to continue until the end of 2030.”
$SNDK stated: “We see structural huge demand for NAND continuing through 2030.” Non-GAAP gross margin will remain around 80%.
$NVDA stated supply commitments increased from $119 billion to $279 billion, mainly driven by storage procurement... Meanwhile, storage pricing is at an “extreme” level and still rising.
Winbond is discussing quota extensions with multiple customers through 2029-2030.
I’ve said before, storage demand looks structural, and now from traditional DRAM to HBM, demand visibility has extended into the coming years...
So I do believe the entire sector’s forward P/E multiples have further upside potential.Market Sentiment Summary (Overall Cryptocurrency Trading Mindset)
On one side, the Hong Kong Crypto Summit plus entertainment trending searches bring a frenzy of traffic across the entire network; on the other side, the macro uncertainty from Jackson Hole creates a very divided market sentiment.
$BTC holds steady above 80,000; longs dare not chase, shorts are frequently proven wrong, and the anxiety of missing out easily triggers revenge trading: continuously adding to short positions against the trend, trying to recover losses from missing out.
The most dangerous move in a bull market is guessing the top driven by emotions.
During the rally phase, wait for a volume breakout before entering with the trend; during the consolidation phase, trade within the range.
Remember: missing out itself is not a loss; the biggest trading trap is heavy positions against the trend to recover losses. Respect the trend and strictly follow trading discipline.Fallen again, the green hair really is a reverse indicator of the market
But it is indeed unlucky, continuous liquidations right after starting the stream, a lightning-fast shameful end.
At this stage, BTC and ETH are highly volatile, with frequent spikes and dips, making the market hard to predict. Position size and leverage must be strictly controlled.
Yesterday, during the stream, a violent market move hit, resulting in a double kill on both longs and shorts.
Short BTC at 79440 faced a rapid surge, losing over four thousand dollars in one trade.
Short ETH around 2500 was on the brink of forced liquidation after just a few dollars' rise.
Heavy ZEC positions also suffered severe losses; even with an ETF launch, blindly shorting is not advisable.
Excessive leverage leaves almost no room for error.
Even if you are right most of the time, one spike can wipe out all profits.
High win rate does not guarantee survival; in the futures market, longevity is far more important than just winning more. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 Hidden Impact of South Korea's Interest Rate Hike on the Crypto Market
The Bank of Korea has raised interest rates for the second consecutive time, increasing the benchmark rate to 3%, with a significant upward revision of GDP expectations, representing a proactive tightening driven by economic overheating.
South Korea is one of the most active markets globally for crypto trading, with the iconic indicator being the Kimchi Premium.
With rising deposit rates and increased local risk-free returns, retail investors' willingness to rush into the crypto market may decrease, making it possible for the Kimchi Premium to converge and decline.
The impact on the market is relatively indirect and will not directly change the long-term trend of $BTC in the short term, but it can serve as a reference indicator for observing Asian retail investor sentiment.
Tightening monetary policies across global economies during a bull market can potentially become a trigger for market corrections.
#CryptoMacro #KimchiPremiumH #MainstreamCoinTradingInsights
Short Post 4｜$TRUMP MEME Coin Trading Review (Lessons from BICO's Past)
TRUMP has recently experienced a short-term violent surge, with trading volume sharply increasing. Many traders in the market are hoping it will replicate LAB's crash from $25 down to 0.07.
This reminds me of the trading lesson BICO taught me: I once closed a short position near $0.07 at breakeven, missing out on the full subsequent downtrend.
But the biggest risk with MEME coins is a forced short squeeze driven by traffic, like the traffic effect that went viral during the recent Hong Kong summit. Hot topics can quickly attract capital clustering, leading to brutal short squeezes.
Historical price movements will not simply repeat.
If you are trading short positions, remember not to stubbornly hold onto target levels. Strictly use trailing stop-loss risk control and never heavily position against the trend.
#TRUMP #MEMETradingReviewBTC Macro Perspective (Jackson Hole)
Tonight at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Fed's Waller's speech is the biggest macro variable for the current crypto market.
$BTC has reclaimed the $80,000 level, and the market is speculating whether it can break through the $83,000 resistance.
At this stage of the bull market, short-term trends are driven by summit narratives and trending topics, but the long-term US Treasury yields are the fundamental liquidity switch.
No need to heavily bet on the speech outcome in advance; focus on the 10-year Treasury yield: a decline in yield is positive for risk assets; if the yield sharply breaks above the warning line, the risk of a high-level pullback must be taken seriously.
In a bull market, news-driven sharp fluctuations will become more frequent. Use trailing stops to protect unrealized gains and avoid blindly holding positions.