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Got offered Anthropic IPO. I said only if it’s all free trading stock. They said it’s locked up for 6 months. I said then it needs to be a big discount to IPO.
“You really don’t want Anthropic IPO!!!?”
“If I want it, I’ll buy it when it round trips below IPO price and it’s all free trading. Most of the time that’s what happens”
SPCX and CBRS back at IPO levels.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Everyone is shouting, "BTC breaks 80,000, the bull market is here!" But one data point sends chills down the spines of veteran investors: futures open interest volume coin standard dropped 11%, while funding rates remain neutral. To translate: prices have risen, but leveraged funds haven't kept up. What does this mean? It means this rally isn't a leveraged mad bull, but it also means that the above 83,000-86,000 is truly a "hard nut." There's concentrated selling pressure from long-term holders, which is the most critical supply zone for BTC this round. Laying the truth out: Good news: ETFs have seen net inflows for nine consecutive days, with August cumulative over $3 billion; The on-chain 7-day EMA has posted a net profit of about $752 million, with profits of about $1.1 billion. Spot demand is truly entering the market, not just inflating. Bad news: 83,000–86,000 is a dense cost zone for long-term holders, with a large number of "uneven positions" waiting to be unlocked. Futures leverage has dropped 11%, indicating professional funds dare not leverage above 80,000—they know there is selling pressure above. Key watershed: Three indicators to watch closely (recommend watching): This rally is healthy but not easy. Health lies in "spot market-driven and leverage not crazy"; Not easy because "83,000-86,000 is a hard nut." In the short term, it will likely be repeatedly grinding between 76,600 and 83,000, waiting for ETF inflows to continue and Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting to set the direction. Don't go all-in on every rally, and don't cut losses every time it falls—this is a chip swap period, not a one-sided trend period.The next round of AI is most likely to have unexpected outcomes not from GPUs, but from Google's self-developed chips.
A key change this week is that $GOOGL has officially brought Marvell into its self-developed AI chip supply chain. If their cooperation meets the target, it could bring $MRVL $120 billion in revenue by fiscal year 2033, and Google has even obtained Marvell stock warrants worth up to $12.2 billion. On the day the news broke, MRVL surged 8% at one point, while $AVGO, deeply tied to Google's TPU, dropped over 5%.
This shows that big companies are no longer satisfied with buying more Nvidia GPUs. The larger the model and the higher the inference volume, the more outrageous the chip bill becomes. Self-developed ASICs can optimize performance and cost specifically for their own models. OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic are all moving in this direction. Anthropic is even reaching out to chip startups to strengthen its hardware capabilities.
But this does not mean $NVDA is doomed. Nvidia just reported $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, with data center revenue up 117% year-over-year, and next quarter guidance at $108 billion. Demand for general-purpose GPUs remains very strong.
What I’m more focused on now is the differentiation among NVDA+AVGO+MRVL: GPUs continue to take the largest share, ASICs start to capture specific workloads, and those designing chips for tech giants are beginning to profit. The next phase of AI chips is not about who replaces Nvidia, but about a market large enough to support multiple winners.Last night, something "strange" happened in the US stock market: Nvidia's CFO expects revenue growth of about 70% for fiscal year 2028, far exceeding analysts' forecast of 44%; Jensen Huang personally said, "Actual demand growth is nearly 100%, just being blocked by supply." Nvidia surged 5% in after-hours trading. That same night, Bitcoin broke through $80,000 and rose another 2% in 24 hours. Many people didn't understand: AI chips and Bitcoin have nothing to do with each other, so why did they surge simultaneously? The logic behind this is even tighter than you think: the same pipeline: AI concept stocks and BTC are simultaneously benefiting from rising market risk appetite. Previously, the market believed "AI rise = BTC fall" (capital rotation), but now it's "AI rise = BTC rise" (liquidity resonance). BTC correlates with the S&P 500 at 44.8%: this figure hits a recent high. This shows BTC is no longer an "independent market" but a "leveraged version" of tech stocks' risk appetite—tech stocks rise 1%, BTC rises 2-3%. Liquidity is the source: The U.S. Treasury expanded its long-term bond buyback from $2 billion to $4 billion, the dollar weakened, and money flowed into AI stocks, gold, and BTC. This is a "fiat credit hedging transaction," with both AI and BTC beneficiaries. Data confirms: BTC correlated 44.8% with the S&P 500 this week, with a Fear and Greed Index of 82, indicating that risk assets are recovering across the board, and BTC is not the only one rising. For the past three years, people have debated whether BTC is a safe-haven asset or a risk asset; now the answer is revealed:ATOM is showing signs of recovery in this wave, with cross-chain and modular narratives being picked up by funds again after the overall market sentiment improved. However, the core issue long discussed about Cosmos remains unchanged: how to more effectively channel ecological value back to ATOM itself. The short-term rebound can be understood as a correction under rising market risk appetite, but to form a sustained trend, it still depends on substantial progress in cross-chain applications, inter-chain security, and the activity level of ecosystem projects. Relying solely on conceptual hype usually has limited sustainability. $ATOM🐮🐻 Many people still don't believe: the bear market has ended, and the bull market has started❗️
My personal prediction: the bottom of this Bitcoin bear market is at 57,800, the bear market most likely ended at 57,800, and the bull market is in its initial stage.
However, I believe the prediction "the bear market has ended, the bull market has started" is basically correct but requires two prerequisite conditions.
My judgment is based on three levels:
1. Technical structure: Natural trading theory and weekly-level confirmation of market and structural reversal.
The price dropped to the 0.618 level of the large cycle Fibonacci retracement between 126,800 and 15,500, which is around 58,000 USD, very precisely at the 0.618 level.
According to natural trading theory, the 0.618 level near 58,000 USD is a strong gravitational point, traditionally considered a strong support level.
The weekly close has risen above the 50-week EMA (around 77,000-78,000), the first time since November 2025.
Combined with the weekly RSI forming a bullish divergence near 57,800 and the price rebounding more than 25% from the bottom, the technical aspect has upgraded from a "rebound" to a "preliminary reversal."
57,800 precisely touched the 200-week moving average area, which historically marked bear market bottoms accurately in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022.
The very standard 5-wave downward correction structure at the weekly level has been completed, but the expected final drop and extended wave did not appear; the price surged directly under the calls from Trump and the White House!
2. On-chain and capital flow: funds are continuously flowing in.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have had net inflows for 8 consecutive trading days, with over $3 billion inflow in August, marking the strongest monthly performance since 2026. The CryptoQuant Bull Score index jumped from 30 to 80, with 8 out of 10 indicators bullish. Whale wallets have accumulated an additional 222,000 BTC since their historical highs. This is not retail behavior; large funds are continuously buying.
3. Macro and regulation: the worst phase is over.
Although PCE exceeded expectations, it is no longer out of control; while rate cut expectations have softened, the rate hike cycle has been confirmed to have ended, and the tightest monetary policy phase has passed.
The SEC compliance framework proposal marks a shift in US crypto regulation from "enforcement as regulation" to clear rules. Although the CLARITY Act is delayed, the direction is clear.
Unless a global financial crisis occurs and the US stock market continues to crash, the Bitcoin bull market will not be cut short!
To be 100% certain that a new BTC bull market has started, two prerequisite conditions can add confidence:
Prerequisite one: The 82,000-83,000 level needs volume confirmation.
Galaxy Research's standard is a weekly close above 82,470 (50-week moving average), which is the final technical signal confirming the end of the bear market.
Currently, 79,000-80,000 is about 3-5% away from 82,000; this breakthrough needs to be completed. If 82,000 is broken with volume and confirmed by a weekly close, the conclusion of "bull market start" upgrades from "high probability" to "confirmed."
If repeatedly resisted, a period of consolidation may still be needed.
Prerequisite two: "Bull market start" ≠ "main upward wave."
A typical feature of the early bull market is "two steps forward, one step back," repeatedly retesting and confirming the bottom rather than a vertical surge. There is a large amount of trapped and profit-taking positions near 82,000 that need to be digested; this process cannot happen overnight.
Short-term pullbacks to 77,000-78,000 or even 73,500-75,000 are possible, which is a normal retest confirmation in the early bull market and does not change the medium-term direction.
57,800 is the bottom of this bear market; the bear market has ended. The bull market has started but is in its initial stage. A true full bull market requires a volume breakout at 82,000-83,000 for final confirmation.
Before confirmation, short-term pullbacks are normal structure and also opportunities to enter!
There is still a way to go between "bear market end" and "main bull wave," a phase called "repeated confirmation."
The bull market ends in euphoria and is born in doubt!$NVDA $BTC Last night Nvidia made a sharp reversal, surging 8.74% to close at $227.98, with its market cap soaring nearly 3 trillion RMB in a single day, a very strong move.
But those who understand know this rebound is not purely driven by positive earnings; it’s a typical case of bad news being priced in and sentiment recovering.
This earnings report is particularly interesting. Although the performance clearly exceeded expectations across the board, the stock initially dropped 3% after hours because market expectations had already been overheated, and Nvidia has broken the "earnings curse" for four consecutive quarters, with positive news being priced in and then sold off. The violent rally at the end was entirely due to the official long-term revenue guidance, which stabilized institutional and market confidence.
From a short-term market perspective, Nvidia’s overall gain in the past two weeks has exceeded 12%, with short-term momentum fully recovering. However, the current position is awkward, very close to the previous high of $236, facing heavy pressure from both trapped sellers and profit-taking.
Therefore, I believe the long-term trend is still upward, with no fundamental issues, but short-term chasing of the rally blindly is not advisable. Right now, it’s a high-level consolidation and accumulation phase, suitable only for buying on dips to capture swings. Chasing highs at this level will only lead to being repeatedly harvested. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #财报观察员：AI demand is spreading from hardware to software
The AI narrative is undergoing a shift "from selling shovels to mining gold" — the market is no longer satisfied with the computing power story on the hardware side, but is starting to evaluate whether the software side can truly turn AI investment into real money
· The hardware logic remains the strongest, but expectations are fully priced in: Nvidia and Marvell's earnings have indeed exploded (Marvell's revenue up 37% year-over-year), and their stock prices have long been priced accordingly ~ these stocks will be extremely sensitive to "exceeding expectations" going forward, and even slightly missing the most optimistic expectations could cause drastic fluctuations ~
· The software side is the next source of "expectation gaps": the rise of CrowdStrike and Salesforce indicates that capital is beginning to recognize the logic of AI improving renewal rates and average revenue per user ~ compared to the one-time hardware purchase boom, subscription-based recurring revenue (ARR) can indeed provide a more stable valuation premium. This is a direction worth focusing on next ~
· Differentiation is intensifying, you can't "blindly buy AI": Synopsys fell after its earnings report, indicating that even within the AI sector, the visibility of earnings guidance and competitive landscape are key variables. The market is shifting from Beta to Alpha stock selection
Mapping this to the crypto market, this is actually a very similar stage — AI-related tokens (such as FET, TAO, etc.) have also experienced a broad rally driven by hardware/computing power narratives, and the next step is to screen for projects with real-world applications and revenue models. The risk of purely riding the concept is increasing$SAMSUNG Samsung Crash Truth! A Mountain of Positive News, Why Is Capital Fleeing Frenziedly?
Candlestick charts can deceive, but capital cannot—when positive news piles up, smart money is quietly retreating.
The news is all positive (NVIDIA HBM4E, Vietnam investment promotion), but the stock price fell instead—positive news realized is negative; NVIDIA's earnings report yesterday was already priced in.
Technical: $SAMSUNG 1-hour RSI at 38.9 near oversold, volume shrinking on the decline, but MACD shows a bearish alignment, trend not reversed.
Capital: Whale short positions hold 12.19 million USDT, with 90% profit; longs only 7.29 million USDT, currently at a loss. Capital flow score -78, 7-day net outflow -1630%, mid-to-long-term capital continuously withdrawing. However, the company repurchased 1.96 trillion KRW, foreign and retail investors are selling, intense long-short battle.
Liquidation map: The dense long liquidation zone below is about 18 million USDT, much larger than above; if the decline continues, cascading liquidations will accelerate the drop to 170-171, resistance at 196-197. Similar structure on August 3, price fell from 190 to 170.
Dayu's operation advice: Aggressive fans enter long positions now; conservative fans enter short positions near 196.
Conclusion: Short-term bearish, mid-term bullish. Watch closely for support at 170 and whether capital flow recovers above -50. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 A bit hard to understand, Nvidia's guidance exceeded expectations, logically the biggest beneficiaries should be those selling storage and optical modules. The day before, Micron even rose over 5% pre-market, SanDisk, Micron, and SK Hynix also rose more than 4%, a total celebration.
But the next night, it all gave back, Micron fell over 7% after hours, Micron, SanDisk, and Seagate fell over 1%.
Micron still holds Google's $120 billion big order, custom chip orders until 2033,
And it still got smashed like this, what can I say? I can only say the market sentiment now is "take profits after a big rise," good news is already bad news, good news is treated as selling, hilarious.
Let it fall, let it fall, I'll keep accumulating Cai Ju as it drops.
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 The script for each BTC bottom cycle is always the same few pages: first, a violent surge with a big bullish candle of 20%-30%, then a sideways consolidation that grinds on for two to three months. Even if you catch the real bottom, without some resolve, you’ll most likely give up your position during that sideways phase — after the shakeout is when the real takeoff happens.
The next two to three months, I estimate, will be the trash time for crypto. Strong altcoins might swing back and forth within a large range, but most altcoins will just steadily decline; BTC and ETH will also fluctuate randomly within a small range, with no clear direction. During this phase, I definitely won’t do small-scale swing trades, and I certainly won’t short.
For spot holders, be patient; for contract traders, don’t fight the trend. The best window for shorting has already closed, and trying to scalp small moves during this sideways phase is honestly pointless.
Lying low might be the least bad choice.🛌 #BTC #CryptoMarket #TradingStrategy#Warsh to debut tonight at Jackson Hole, can he clarify the policy framework? Warsh's stance on AI itself is one of the core highlights of this speech:
His core argument ("AI deflation theory"):
Warsh has consistently argued that AI will ultimately be deflationary — that is, AI improves productivity and will lower inflation in the long term.
This argument is an important support for his "pause rate hikes" stance: if AI can continuously suppress inflation, the Fed has reason to be more patient with the currently elevated inflation data.
But this argument is now facing self-contradictory pressure:
In the short term, AI infrastructure construction (data centers, computing power) requires huge capital expenditures, and this funding demand itself is pushing up inflation and long-term interest rates — because tech giants issuing bonds and U.S. Treasuries are competing for the same pool of institutional funds, which is one reason why the 30-year yield remains at a 2019 high.
In other words: the logic he uses to support "AI will ultimately be deflationary, so we can hold steady" is being counteracted in the short term by the reality of "AI capital expenditures pushing up interest rates."
A conflict of interest detail worth noting:
Reports mention that Warsh has had a 30-year private relationship with Silicon Valley investor Andreessen, who publicly supported Warsh's nomination. Andreessen's company a16z manages a large portfolio of AI and crypto asset investments — if the Fed's "AI deflation theory" is adopted and supports maintaining low interest rates, it objectively benefits the valuation of such assets.
The Fed has not yet publicly responded to this potential conflict of interest issue $HYPE current price $84.90, 24h +0.23%, market cap $18.88B. The key is not whether it has risen, but that it is only 2% away from the all-time high of $86.75, making it the coin closest to a new high in the entire market.
Sentiment thermometer: boiling hot. But something boiling hot will either keep boiling or burn your hand. HYPE’s foundation is the fee dividends from the Hyperliquid perpetual contract protocol; if on-chain trading volume shrinks, the valuation logic wobbles. RSI is repeatedly testing around 70, MACD is dulled at a high level, and the technical indicators are already signaling "don’t chase."
My stance is very clear: don’t treat it as your main position. Keep your position under 5%, treat it as a "high Beta speculative" satellite position; if you profit, it’s luck, if you lose, it won’t hurt much.
The closer to the new high, the more you should be cautious. Beginners die chasing highs, veterans die from greed, experts die from being fully invested. Capital flows often reveal the true intentions of institutions earlier than price fluctuations. Just as market sentiment wavers, the spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum have delivered a substantial report 🟠 — $BTC-related ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $245 million, with a weekly total reaching $1.89 billion; $ETH is not far behind, with a single-day inflow of $155 million and a weekly total of $842 million. Such sustained buying at this scale is clearly not driven by scattered retail investors.
What is even more intriguing is Ethereum's catching-up momentum. Although the absolute amount is still lower than Bitcoin's, the weekly proportion is quietly rising, suggesting a subtle rebalancing of capital preference toward risk assets 📈. When institutions shift their focus from a single leader to the second-largest asset, it often means their confidence in the entire digital asset category is strengthening, rather than just betting on a single coin.
However, it remains prudent not to simply define every dip as a "golden pit." ETF inflows represent long-term allocation demand, which does not fully align with the short-term derivatives market's game logic. If macro data surprises or option expirations trigger volatility expansion, capital flows may also reverse in a short time. The key observation should not be the single-day figures but whether this inflow rhythm can continue for several weeks — that is the critical factor in judging the trend's quality. Risk warning: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. The above content does not constitute any investment advice.#Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
Strategy is increasing cash through additional issuance, and the BTC allocation pace is under scrutiny.
Strategy continues to expand its USD cash reserves by issuing more shares, steadily increasing the cash pool size. The market's full attention is on this Bitcoin-leading company's subsequent coin purchasing rhythm. Unlike the previous aggressive model of "raising funds and immediately increasing BTC holdings," this time the raised funds are primarily used to pay preferred stock dividends and optimize the capital structure, without immediately buying Bitcoin, keeping holdings stable.
From an optimistic perspective, ample cash serves as ammunition for future dollar-cost averaging. The company has established a disciplined buying strategy: increase BTC accumulation when it is below the long-term moving average, and hold cash defensively at high levels, effectively reserving room to buy the dip during market pullbacks, maintaining a firm long-term Bitcoin reserve strategy.
Personal view: Additional issuance essentially dilutes equity and cannot be directly equated with positive news. The company currently faces significant fixed interest payment pressure, so cash reserves are first used to stabilize finances rather than blindly hoard coins. If the coin price remains high for a sustained period, the pace of accumulation will likely slow; only a deep correction would trigger large-scale purchases. Do not habitually assume that BTC rising means Strategy will simultaneously increase holdings.
For the crypto market, this company's allocation moves are medium- to long-term supply and demand signals and cannot influence short-term trends. Short-term BTC price movements are still dominated by ETF funds and macro interest rates, so one should not blindly chase highs based solely on Strategy's capital actions.#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
The Fed's most hawkish man makes his debut tonight; will the U.S. stock market, just having rallied, face a setback?
At 10 PM Beijing time tonight, Jackson Hole, the global central bank annual meeting.
Fed Chair Wash's first keynote speech since taking office, the hottest topic No.1, with 5.73 million views.
First, let's talk about this guy's status: personally appointed by Trump, Wall Street privately calls him "Volcker 2.0," the tough guy who crushed inflation with rate hikes, even if it meant crashing the economy.
The market has long been saying: on his first day in office, he dared to confront the White House; hawkish genes are in his bones.
Look at the data, all contradicting him: Core PCE still above the 2% target, inflation sticking like glue; initial jobless claims down to 203,000, employment very stable.
Rate cuts? The Fed has no reason at all.
Before the meeting, Schmid and Hamarak have already taken turns to speak out: inflation risks are not gone, don't expect easing.
The most critical is the timing.
The U.S. stock market just had a rally: Nasdaq +1.57%, Nvidia surged 8.74% in one day, market cap +$442 billion, oil prices back to $90, everyone betting AI will save everything and rate cuts are coming soon.
But tonight, the most hawkish person will stand under the global spotlight to speak.
Think about it, really think about it: the market is popping champagne, the Fed is sharpening knives.
If Wash says tonight that the policy framework is undecided and high rates will be maintained, how many people will wake up tomorrow morning silent in front of their accounts? $BTC #Strategy增发扩充现金，BTC配置节奏受关注
Is Saylor no longer buying coins? MSTR issued over $2 billion in August, piling up a cash pool to $6.69 billion. The BTC acquisition rhythm has completely changed. Many are still waiting for Saylor's old script of "buying on every dip," but the Strategy delivered in August 2026 is completely the opposite:
Holdings stopped at 840,447 BTC (average price about 75,400), with zero purchases since 6/22, and even sold several thousand coins during this period.
Where did the money go: $300 million to replenish reserves, $136.4 million to repurchase STRC preferred shares, and the rest put into a cash pool "that can be used to buy coins or repay debt in the future."
The meaning is very straightforward:
Previously it was issuing shares → buying BTC → pushing up mNAV → then issuing shares again.
Now it is issuing shares → keeping cash → repurchasing preferred shares to suppress dividends → waiting for volatility → then deciding opportunistically.
Net leverage has dropped close to 0%, STRC is near par value, financing channels are fixed, but the gun has no bullets; they are waiting for a target.
I think this is not bearish on BTC, but temporarily shelving the "infinite bagholder" persona, switching to a treasury bond-style long position with capital structure management.
The focus going forward is not "whether he buys or not," but:
Will he act if BTC dips below the 75,000 cost line? Or will he wait until the preferred share dividends are covered before buying?
What do you think—Saylor's current inaction, is it fear of a high position, or is he washing out retail investors to buy at a low price himself?Nvidia's earnings report landed, with the after-hours stock price first falling then rising, ultimately settling at about a 4% gain. The market sentiment shift mostly stems from Jensen Huang's statement that "AI has reached a turning point." This statement carries more weight than the numbers themselves.📊
Looking closely at the data, data center revenue for Q2 reached $89 billion, a year-over-year increase of 117%, and the Q3 guidance is as high as $108 billion. This indicates that, at least at the current stage, giants like Microsoft and Meta have not cooled their enthusiasm for GPU purchases, and capital expenditures remain high. The previously feared "enough buying" scenario seems not to have occurred yet.
However, I do not believe this 4% after-hours gain means the AI rally has restarted. Before the earnings, the options market had already priced in about ±5% volatility, so the actual performance is within the expected range and not particularly surprising. What is truly worth paying attention to is the diffusion effect across the entire AI hardware chain. Nvidia benefits directly, and supporting manufacturers like AVGO, MRVL, MU, and SNDK will also gain.🤔
My next focus will be on MRVL. AI infrastructure has never been Nvidia's alone; the deeper changes in the industry chain often reveal trend shifts earlier than a single leading company.
Risk reminder: The market is highly volatile, and short-term movements after earnings do not represent long-term trends. Please view rationally and make decisions cautiously. $NVDA单季营收 962 亿美元，同比增长 106%。数据中心业务收入 890 亿美元，同比增长 117%，依旧是绝对增长主力。
三季度营收指引 1080 亿美元，高于市场预期。更关键的是下一财年营收增长约 70% 的展望，直接缓解了此前市场对 AI 资本开支见顶的担忧。
英伟达明确说预测受限于供应，而非需求不足。我觉得摩根大通认为指引偏保守，有一定道理。
财报发布后，华尔街集体上调目标价。高盛调至 300 美元，花旗到 315 美元，摩根大通到 320 美元，Bernstein 大幅上调至 400 美元。
多家机构跟进上调，卖方对 AI 芯片需求延续性的分歧，正在快速收窄。
周四英伟达股价上涨 8.7%，创 2025 年 4 月以来最大单日涨幅。单日市值增加约 4420 亿美元，为全球个股历史第二高单日增长纪录，仅次于微软不到一个月前的 4500 亿美元。
目前公司总市值约 5.5 万亿美元，仍是全球市值最高的上市公司。
几个月前市场还在争论 AI 交易过热、云厂商资本开支回报存疑，一份财报就把整体情绪扭转过来。
之前市场在炒预期，现在慢慢进入业绩验证阶段，定价逻辑已经发生变AI infrastructure earnings reports are incredibly strong, but why are the stock prices still falling?
NVIDIA's Q2 revenue hit ¥96.2 billion, a year-over-year surge of 106%. Marvell's revenue was ¥2.74 billion, up 36.5% year-over-year, and it just signed a ten-year big deal with Google, expected to bring in ¥120 billion in revenue by 2033.
But the problem is—Marvell won't see contributions from this money before 2028, and the market can't wait, so it dropped 7% in after-hours trading. NVIDIA is the same; the performance is solid, but the stock price has already risen too much.
It's interesting, let's talk back to our side.
The AI infrastructure sector is still accelerating, and RNDR, AKT, WLD continue to be logically validated. But be careful not to let expectations run too fast; projects that need time for benefits to materialize shouldn't be rushed into.
#财报观察员：AI需求从硬件扩散至软件 The latest core PCE inflation remained flat compared to last month, with inflation stickiness still stubborn and a clear gap from the 2% target; the resilience of the US economy and employment exceeded expectations, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma.
The biggest change since Waller took office is the complete weakening of forward guidance, the cancellation of the dot plot forecast, and the refusal to give future interest rate commitments, advocating that policy decisions rely entirely on real-time economic data at each meeting. This is also the market's biggest concern: the lack of clear guidance will amplify volatility in the bond market and risk assets.
Three speech scenario simulations
Scenario 1: Hawkish stance (low probability)
Emphasize the slow decline of inflation, retain the option of rate hikes within the year, and do not release easing signals. US Treasury yields rise rapidly, the US dollar strengthens, BTC faces pressure at high levels, and is likely to retest the key support at 77500‑78000.
Scenario 2: Neutral and pragmatic (highest probability)
Reaffirm the 2% inflation target without change, continue to downplay forward guidance, only explain the Federal Reserve's framework reform ideas, and make no hints about the September rate decision meeting. The market maintains high-level oscillation, BTC continues to range between 78000‑81000, awaiting subsequent non-farm payroll and inflation data releases.
Scenario 3: Dovish and reassuring (very low probability)
Acknowledge marginal cooling of inflation, signal that high interest rates can be maintained gradually, dispelling market fears of aggressive rate hikes. US Treasury yields fall, risk asset sentiment warms, and BTC is expected to challenge the 80,000 level again.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Recently, SOL has started to get interesting again.
But this time, I don't really want to talk about:
"Can SOL rise to $200?"
I'm more focused on what Solana has been up to lately.
200ms slot time.
Transaction v1.
Higher transaction processing capacity.
AI Agent payments.
Tokenized equities.
RWA.
Looking at these things together, you’ll find Solana’s direction is becoming clearer:
Transactions + Payments + Asset issuance + AI Agent.
Especially the AI Agent.
If in the future AI is not just chatting but actually starts buying data, calling APIs, and paying for services, it will need a real usable wallet and payment network.
And Solana is already positioning itself ahead for this.
So now when I look at SOL, I’m not just looking at the price.
I want to see:
Is there real growth in on-chain transactions?
Is there continuous inflow of stablecoins?
Is RWA continuing to expand?
Is the AI Agent truly generating on-chain transactions?
Because if all these happen, the story of SOL will no longer be just:
"The next hot coin in the bull market."
It might become:
The on-chain settlement layer for AI and internet economic activities.
So the current SOL, I think, is worth paying attention to, but not worth blind FOMO. 1. Economic data as a foundation, traders price dovish in advance US inflation has recently declined and employment data has weakened, and CME rate futures have priced in a high probability of a rate cut in September. The market assumes the chairman's speech will not completely overturn this expectation; as long as hawkish language is not used, it is considered to lean toward easing. Transmission chain: Rising rate cut expectations→ falling US Treasury yields and weakening dollar → improved liquidity of risk assets, $BTC as highly elastic risk assets will directly benefit. 2. This year's conference theme leans toward financial innovation This year's conference theme is "Financial Innovation: Payments and Policy Implications," covering discussions related to stablecoins and digital assets. Even without directly discussing Bitcoin, as long as the Fed does not make tough statements to suppress crypto assets, it is marginally positive for the crypto sector, and the market will interpret it positively. 3. The unwritten rule of "not hawkish or dovish" trading. Market expectations are currently very high: as long as the chairman doesn't emphasize "inflation is making a comeback and rate cuts should be postponed," and only maintains the neutral rhetoric of "policy depends on data," in the current environment, capital will interpret neutrality as biased positive. In other words: as long as no one pours cold water on the market, it's considered positive for risk assets. 4. The market already has long positions to build the groundwork. BTC rebounded in August, and bullish funds are positioning themselves in advance to play this macro catalyst. Market sentiment is already bullish, which amplifies the potential for positive news. 5. Crypto bill in September: Although the chances of passing are low, market expectations have already emerged. Trump's strong recommendation for a clear bill is actually one thingMarvell’s 37% revenue growth and stronger guidance continue to support the AI infrastructure buildout, while CrowdStrike’s 26% revenue growth, 51% increase in net new ARR to $333 million, and upgraded full-year outlook provide a clear example of what successful AI-driven monetization can look like.
My view is that the next major divide will be between companies simply benefiting
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Tonight, I am actually not very eager for Walsh to give the market a "clear rate cut" answer.
My expectation is: no rate hike, but hawkish wording.
The reason is simple — core PCE hasn't returned to 2%, and employment hasn't significantly deteriorated, so the Fed has no need to rush to release easing signals now.
For $BTC, this kind of environment is more likely to produce a very interesting trend:
The market has already priced in quite a bit of "easing expectations" earlier, so if Walsh tonight only confirms no rate hike for the time being while emphasizing inflation risks, BTC is very likely to be hit short-term, possibly even triggering a quick long squeeze.
But I won't turn bearish just because of a single down candle.
What really matters is whether there is buying support after BTC pulls back.
If after the news, BTC breaks key support but quickly recovers, it indicates this drop is more like a deleveraging washout; conversely, if US Treasury yields and the dollar both strengthen, and BTC breaks support with sustained volume, then the bullish structure needs to be reassessed.
So my approach tonight is very clear:
Don't bet on the direction before the speech; wait for the market to give the answer first.
Hawkish doesn't necessarily mean BTC will fall; the key is how much the market has already priced in.
Sometimes, the real bearish signal isn't the hawkish speech itself, but that — after the hawkish speech comes out, BTC doesn't actually fall.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Everyone is waiting for the last waterfall of $BTC. But the question is, when will it come?
Just pay attention to these 3 indicators:
1. ETF fund flows: Currently, BTC's US spot ETF has had net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, and August has become the month with the highest capital inflow this year, indicating the market is still buying.
2. Coinbase premium: Coinbase currently has a premium, indicating that buyers in the US regulated market are willing to pay, even at a higher cost.
3. Seven-day exponential moving average of net realized profit and loss: The current seven-day average is positive, about $752 million, indicating more profitable positions and that enthusiasm remains.
Among these 3 indicators, if 1 deteriorates, caution is needed; if 2 deteriorate, a market reversal is highly likely.Since the Fed entered a new policy cycle, Powell's statements have left considerable room for interpretation, and the market increasingly relies on wording details to determine the next policy direction. This policy uncertainty is being transmitted to the bond market, with US Treasury yields continuing to rise, and some term yields reaching levels not seen since 2007. In a high interest rate environment, dollar liquidity and risk asset valuations are under greater pressure. Tonight's Jackson Hole speech is especially noteworthy. If a hawkish signal is issued, it could further push US Treasury yields higher, putting short-term pressure on BTC and the entire crypto market; If policy statements are dovish, it could ease market concerns about tightening liquidity. Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $79,000, while ETH is holding around $2,500. ETF capital flows remain an important support for the market, but macro interest rates and policy expectations are becoming key variables determining the next market move. What we really want to watch tonight is not just the content of the speeches, but the immediate responses of US Treasury yields, the US dollar, and BTC to key price levels #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #GoldVsBTCETFFlows #Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoActually, the BTC bottoms in each cycle are quite similar, with a sharp 20-30% spike from the bottom, followed by 1-3 months of sideways consolidation to shake out weak hands. Even if you catch the absolute bottom, without some patience, you’ll likely sell your position during those few months of sideways movement after the initial 20% rise, and then it just goes up steadily.
I think the next 2-3 months will most likely be a trash period for crypto. A few strong altcoins will fluctuate widely within a large range, most altcoins will keep declining, and BTC and ETH will have small, irregular oscillations within a narrow range. During this phase, I won’t be doing small-scale swing trades in crypto, and I definitely won’t be shorting.
If you hold spot, be more patient. If you’re itching to trade short-term, look for opportunities in the US stock market. If you’re a futures trader, don’t fight the trend. The best time to short has passed, and trading the sideways fluctuations during crypto’s trash period is pointless.#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
I think Wash will most likely "hawk openly but dove secretly" tonight, verbally calling for a rate hike while actually leaving the door open for a pause in September.
Although the core PCE is still high at 3.3%, the initial jobless claims dropping to 203,000 is a crucial data point — indicating the job market is already starting to subtly cool down.
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest By the end of September 2026, the crypto market fully entered a cycle of stock capital competition. Bitcoin fluctuated narrowly between $74,000 and $80,000, Ethereum repeatedly tested the price between $2,300 and $2,500, and the sentiment premium from previous short squeezes has basically cleared away. The market no longer relies on news speculation but instead is dominated by institutional capital flows, changes in US Treasury yields, and on-chain fundamental strength. The divergence in capital preferences between BTC and ETH is becoming more pronounced, and the market tone for Q4 is gradually becoming clearer. From the perspective of capital structure, the inflow rhythm of Bitcoin spot ETFs has stabilized, leading institutions continue regular investing, further increasing capital concentration, and small ETF shares continue to concentrate at the top. On-chain exchanges maintain Bitcoin reserves at historic lows, whale addresses continue to hoard offline, and long-term chip lock-in is highly effective. Selling pressure below is generally controllable, but trapped interest above $80,000 remains heavy, trading volume continues to shrink, and stock fund exchanges struggle to drive effective price breakouts, leaving bulls lacking incremental buying support. On Ethereum, spot ETF funds have become more volatile, net inflows are insufficient, and institutional allocation is clearly weaker than Bitcoin. Although Layer 2 network activity remains stable, staking unlocking continues to release circulating supply, the DeFi ecosystem lacks blockbuster applications to drive revenue growth, ETH/BTC prices continue to decline, and funds tend to prioritize Bitcoin allocation, making it much harder for Ethereum to strengthen independently. Speculative sentiment in the derivatives market continues to cool, perpetual contract funding rates hover near the zero axis for a long time, long and short positions are becoming more balanced, and leveraged positions are generally being reduced. Fear$BTC warriors, don't sleep tonight
At 22:00 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole.
It's been three months. Since he took office, this guy has done three things: canceled forward guidance, stopped updating the dot plot, and refused to explain policy logic at press conferences. The market is going crazy.
The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to the highest level since 2007. Gold is approaching a three-month high. BTC is jumping around near $80,000. Every word Wash says tonight is pricing the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin.
BTC is currently stuck near $80,000. Up? Down? The answer is not in the candlesticks but in Wash's speech.
BTC is currently in a tug-of-war between "dollar credit vs. rate hike expectations." If Wash is vague—the market will continue to trade policy uncertainty, and gold and BTC as "anti-fiat" assets may benefit.
If Wash is hawkish—it could end the recent rise in gold prices and BTC. But there's a logic, folks, think it through yourselves: gold is already speaking with its price—the rate hikes no longer scare it.
What about BTC? It's waiting for a confirmation signal.
After tonight, there will only be two types of people:
One who has thought it through in advance.
One who asks "what happened" only after the market moves.
Every word Wash says tonight is pricing the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin. He's not just giving a speech—he's drawing lines for global assets.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
#BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 MRVL's latest earnings report is actually not bad; it can even be said to be very good.
Q2 revenue was $2.739 billion, a year-over-year increase of 37%; data center revenue was $2.17 billion, up 46% year-over-year; Q3 guidance is $3.15 billion, also above market expectations.
But the stock price still plunged.
The reason is simple: the performance beat expectations but did not beat imagination.
A few days ago, Google just painted a $120 billion picture for the market, and everyone was waiting for MRVL to directly blow up the expectations for the next few years.
As a result, the FY2028 revenue target was only raised from $16.5 billion to $18 billion, and management clearly stated that some of Google's revenue was already included in the original target before FY2028, so the real significant incremental growth might have to wait until FY2029.
The $120 billion story only resulted in a $1.5 billion increase for FY2028.
It's not that MRVL's growth isn't fast enough, but the market is thinking too fast.
Moreover, the stock price had already nearly tripled before the earnings report, so expectations were already maxed out.
The biggest negative for MRVL this time is not poor earnings, but that the future has been overdrawn too much in advance.
This is also the most dangerous aspect of high-expectation tech stocks:
you not only have to grow, but you must always grow faster than the market imagines.After BTC surpassed 80,000, the market experienced a strange split: On one side are retail investors—up 28% since August, with many choosing to take profits at relatively high levels. On the other side are institutions—ETFs have seen net inflows exceeding $3 billion for 8 consecutive days, with BlackRock alone buying over $2 billion. Retail investors are selling, institutions are buying. It's a familiar pattern again. This time, which side do you choose? Lay your bullish and bearish cards on the table: 🐻 Bearish logic: BTC rose from 64,000 to 81,000 in just over a week, technically severely overbought; 80,000-82,500 is a dense on-chain cost zone with huge selling pressure; Warsh's speech tonight may be hawkish. 🐂 Bullish logic: Eight consecutive positive days for ETFs mark the strongest monthly inflow in 2026; Coinbase premium reappearing indicates the return of domestic US buying; Wall Street heavyweights like Dalio publicly support BTC; the US debt crisis ignites the "de-dollarization" narrative. Key indicators (recommend closely watching these 3): Daily close above 82,500 = selling pressure digested, next target 85,000; break below 76,600 (short-term holder cost line) = this rebound ends. At the current position, it's neither suitable to go all in nor to panic sell.$BTC 又重新站上 8 万美元附近，但这一次，重点已经不是“8 万能不能守住”，而是今晚的宏观变量会不会把市场彻底带出震荡区间。 过去几个小时，BTC 在 7.9 万—8.1 万美元附近反复拉扯。此前一度冲上 8.1 万美元，随后快速回落，说明多空双方都在等一个更明确的催化剂。 而这个催化剂，大概率就是今晚的杰克逊霍尔。 🔥 今晚真正值得盯的，不是沃什会不会直接宣布加息，而是他会不会给出一套更清晰的“反应函数”。 目前美国通胀依旧高于 2%目标，7 月 PCE 通胀达到 3.7%，而美联储内部对于是否需要进一步收紧政策也出现明显分歧。市场目前定价的 9 月加息概率大约在三成左右，到 12 月则明显升高。 这意味着： 📌 如果沃什释放明显鹰派信号—— BTC 可能重新测试 7.8 万甚至更低位置，美元和美债收益率走强也可能进一步压制风险资产。 📌 如果沃什强调就业、金融条件以及未来数据依赖—— 市场可能重新交易“政策不会过度收紧”的逻辑，BTC 有机会重新挑战 8.1 万—8.2 万美元区域。 📌 如果讲话依旧非常模糊—— 那反而可能成为今晚最大的风险。因为市场最怕的不是鹰，也$XAU Gold has surged above 4600 this round, but BTC is still stuck at the 80,000 threshold: what exactly is the money afraid of?
Gold has pushed steadily from below 4200 up to 4600–4650, a strong rise indeed, but I’m not chasing it at this level. After continuous gains, there are already many short-term profit takers; once Wash’s speech comes out tonight, it wouldn’t be surprising to see either a rally or a sell-off first.
Currently, the upper resistance for gold is at 4650; only a strong volume close above this level will give a chance to test 4700. On the downside, support is at 4580, and if weaker, then 4550–4500. Breaking below 4550 means short-term risk of profit-taking.
This round of gold strength isn’t just about safe-haven demand. The US fiscal deficit, high long-term bond yields, repo plans, and concerns over dollar credit are all pushing funds to seek non-sovereign assets. Last week, global gold ETFs saw inflows of about $6.38 billion; institutions are putting real money in, not just retail shouting slogans.
Looking at $BTC around 79,870 and $ETH at 2502, neither 80,000 nor 2500 have been fully secured yet. If gold continues to hit new highs while BTC and ETH don’t keep up, it shows funds prefer to hold safe-haven assets first; only when BTC reclaims 80,000 and ETH holds above 2500 can risk appetite be considered back.
Brothers, what do you think? Will Wash push gold higher tonight, or will he pour cold water on the bulls first?
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #黄金ETF大额吸金，避险资金如何重配 #伊朗开放临时航道，美拒恢复旧协议 A nuclear-level signal ignored by many: US national debt surpasses $40 trillion, 30-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2007. Bridgewater Fund founder Ray Dalio publicly calls to buy Bitcoin, prioritizing BTC and gold over bonds. Immediately after, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announces expansion of long-term bond repurchase program, market interprets this as a "dollar devaluation trade" restart. The result? Gold nears $4700, Bitcoin surges 28% in a single month, breaking $80,000. This is no coincidence; these are two main threads of the same risk-hedging movement. To explain the current macro situation in plain terms: US debt crisis: the government owes $40 trillion and can't even cover the annual interest. The market begins to doubt the long-term purchasing power of the dollar. Dalio's signal: the founder of the world's largest hedge fund urges you to hold BTC, which is a formal endorsement of the "digital gold" narrative by traditional finance. Yellen's "masterstroke": on August 19, she announced an expansion of long-term bond repurchases, intending to lower yields, but the market interpreted it inversely as "the government printing money to backstop" → dollar weakens → Bitcoin and gold surge simultaneously. $7 billion in 5 days: ETF inflows into Bitcoin and gold hit a 5-day record, a true reflection of the "de-dollarization trade." My judgment: the fundamental driver of this rally is not technical but macro. Once the narrative of "fiat credit hedge" is established, BTC's medium-term potential will be fully unlocked. But in the short term, the $80,000-$82,500 range needs to be digested; don't chase the highs, wait for a pullback. #财报观察员：AI demand spreading from hardware to software
$MRVL This is explosive, revenue up 37%, guidance also exceeded expectations, but the stock plunged 10% after hours, a typical case of good news fully priced in.
This is how the market plays now—good earnings are expected, and anything slightly below expectations gets hammered hard. Nvidia can still hold around 226, but MRVL dropped straight from 260 to 219.
AI demand is indeed spreading from hardware to software, with software players like CrowdStrike and Salesforce also delivering. But the market has already priced hardware too fully, even for MRVL which truly exceeded expectations, capital prefers to exit first.
AI is still AI, but valuations have already moved ahead. What matters next is not whether demand exists, but whether the price is reasonable. $BTC
Actually, the bottom of each BTC cycle is quite similar, with a sharp 20-30% spike from the bottom, then a sideways consolidation for 1-3 months to shake out weak hands. Even if you catch the absolute bottom, without some patience, you’ll likely sell your position during those few months of sideways movement after the initial 20% rise. After that, it’s a steady upward trend.
I think the next 2-3 months will most likely be a trash period for crypto. A few strong altcoins will fluctuate widely in a large range, most altcoins will keep dropping, and BTC and ETH will have small, irregular oscillations. During this phase, I won’t do small-scale swing trades in crypto, and I definitely won’t short.
If you hold spot, be more patient. If you’re itching to trade short-term, look for opportunities in the US stock market. If you’re a futures trader, don’t fight the trend. The best time to short has passed, and trading the sideways fluctuations during crypto’s trash period is pointless. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切
Strategy trading, sharing three pitfalls and a survival method with brothers
Conclusion first: Strategy is not "set and forget," but dynamically monitoring parameters. I've tried grid, dollar-cost averaging, and Martingale; in the end, only dollar-cost averaging + conditional orders survived.
Pitfall 1: Mindlessly opening grids, losing everything on one-sided breakouts. When BTC oscillated between 60,000-70,000, I opened a grid with 1% spacing, but news pushed it beyond the upper boundary, and all positions were at the high point. Lesson: Grids are only for clear oscillation ranges, leaving 20% margin at upper and lower boundaries, and decisively exit on breakout.
Pitfall 2: Martingale doubling down, funds exhausted and liquidation. Add once after a 5% drop, increase position by 1.5x, after a 15% continuous drop the sixth amount was already 11 times the initial, margin was directly liquidated. Lesson: Must set a maximum number of add-ons; my current limit is 4 times, total investment ≤ 30% of principal.
Pitfall 3: Dollar-cost averaging without price consideration, blindly buying weekly. Changed to "moving average deviation method" — buy double when below 10% of the 200-day moving average, halve when above 20%. Execution reduced cost by 12% compared to blind dollar-cost averaging.
My steady portfolio: 70% weekly dollar-cost averaging (with deviation rules), 20% grid (only placing orders in large ranges, 2% spacing, 5% profit take per grid), 10% cash waiting to buy the dip.
There is no universal strategy; first ask yourself what market it is now — use grids for oscillation, dollar-cost averaging for downtrends, trend following for one-sided moves. The core is risk control, not returns. Only by surviving can you compound. August is almost over. Looking back, $BTC rose from 64K to 81K, an increase of 28%. $ETH also climbed from around 1900 to over 2500. Those who went long in this wave probably all profited. Honestly, this monthly gain is the highest in nearly three years, and those who missed out are probably feeling pretty bad.
The main driver was the Treasury's action on August 19, doubling the scale of long-term bond repurchases. The market directly interpreted this as a disguised liquidity injection, the dollar weakened, and BTC and gold both pushed higher. ETH saw a net inflow of $2.6 billion over eight days, with strong institutional buying. After shorts were liquidated for $2.7 billion, there wasn’t much resistance; the price was pushed steadily upward.
The Fear & Greed Index has returned to "Extreme Greed," a level last seen at the end of 2024. BTC’s daily RSI is at 73, and ETH has been hovering in the overbought zone for over a week. Tonight, with Wash speaking, if he leans hawkish, profit-taking could surge without mercy.
My view is that the trend isn’t broken, but chasing now isn’t cost-effective in the short term. Waiting for a pullback to confirm at 83K or to catch near 77K is better than chasing now.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ #BTC冲高回落，期权到期放大关口博弈 #Bitcoin has climbed back above the $80,000 mark, which is not surprising in itself; what truly deserves attention is the pace of capital behind it. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, with the most recent day absorbing about $232 million. Institutional funds are not a one-time impulse but a steady, long-term flow, and this persistence is often more meaningful than a single day surge. 🌿 Ethereum is currently holding steadily around $2,500, without particularly outstanding performance, but also showing no signs of falling behind. Overall market sentiment has clearly warmed up, and the rebound in risk appetite has given more assets breathing room. At times like this, market structure often matters more than short-term prices—Bitcoin plays the role of trend leader, Ethereum is gradually consolidating its position, and altcoins are still waiting for broader rotation signals. 📊 Liquidity is returning, which is almost universal consensus. But where the market goes after the return will be the key to determining the next phase of market dynamics. Whether funds continue to concentrate in leading assets or begin to spread outward will directly affect the performance rhythm of different sectors. Current data shows that institutional capital preferences remain clear, and the continued inflows of ETFs indicate that traditional funds prefer to allocate Bitcoin through compliant channels. However, the return of liquidity does not mean a broad rally. The market usually first repairs the most certain assets before gradually extending outward. Bitcoin, as a barometer, its stability determines the confidence foundation of the entire market; Ethereum's follow-up reflects the extent of risk appetite spread;At 10 PM tonight, Walsh should be ready to answer an increasingly hard-to-avoid question
At 10 PM Beijing time tonight, Walsh will appear at Jackson Hole for the first time as the Federal Reserve Chair.
This will be especially intriguing!
Because Walsh originally didn’t like the market constantly chasing him with "Will the next move be a hike or a cut?" He prefers to talk about long-term issues.
But the problem now is that reality may not allow him to continue discussing the "big picture."
Core PCE is still above the 2% target, employment hasn’t shown obvious signs of slowing down yet, but stronger hawkish voices have already started to emerge within the Fed.
On the other hand, long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the boundary between fiscal and monetary policy is increasingly being brought up for discussion.
So tonight’s speech is very likely not just an ordinary policy statement.
What everyone really wants to hear is:
If inflation continues to stick, what will he do?
If employment suddenly drops, what will he do?
If short-term interest rates fall but long-term U.S. Treasury yields keep rising, what will he do?
Of course, Walsh can continue not to tell everyone how he will vote in September.
But what he finds increasingly hard to avoid is another question—
Under what circumstances are you actually prepared to change policy?
This is the most important part to listen for tonight.
Because if even this isn’t made clear, then Walsh himself might become the biggest variable for the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, gold, and even BTC going forward.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
$BTC $XAU #Will Walsh's appearance at Jackson Hole tonight clarify the policy framework?
Jackson Hole coincides with options expiry, tonight definitely won't be calm
Federal Reserve Chair Walsh will speak tonight at Jackson Hole, coinciding with a large BTC options expiry. Macro sentiment and derivatives settlement overlap. The short-term trend is driven by these two factors together, making a one-sided move unlikely, with violent fluctuations very probable.
First, Bitcoin is currently tightly linked with US Treasury yields and US stocks. The Fed's tone directly determines the tightness of dollar liquidity. A hawkish stance means rising Treasury yields and a strong dollar, pulling money out of risk assets; a dovish stance means rising rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and money flowing into crypto, which aligns with ETF buying pushing prices up.
The most troublesome thing about Walsh is that since taking office he hasn't provided a clear policy framework. The market is guessing, and one sentence tonight could completely disrupt expectations.
Three possible scenarios:
Hawkish: Continue fighting inflation, even keeping rate hike options open. Treasury yields rise, BTC faces dual pressure from options short hedging and macro risk aversion. Watch if 77,500 holds; if broken, it could drop to 76,800. Altcoins and MEME tokens will suffer much more, with high leverage longs and shorts easily liquidated.
Dovish: Acknowledge inflation is falling, hinting the rate hike cycle is over. Risk sentiment improves, the dollar weakens, fueling ETF inflows, giving BTC a chance to push toward 80,000 again. But the biggest pain point remains; a one-sided surge is still unrealistic.
Neutral: The usual "data-dependent, no pre-judgment" rhetoric. The market finds no direction, trading range-bound between 77,500 and 79,500, with chasing highs getting trapped and bottom-fishing getting crushed, repeatedly taking hits.
With options expiry overlapping, volatility will further increase
Today is a large options expiry day, market makers need to rebalance hedges, so volatility is naturally high. The emotional impact of Walsh's speech will be amplified by leverage—market makers chase buys to push prices up when rising, and passively dump to push prices down when falling. Volatility tonight through early morning will definitely be much higher than usual. Contracts with 20x or 50x leverage have very low tolerance for error; even if the direction is right, a sudden spike could liquidate positions.
Different coins will perform differently
BTC is the bellwether, supported by ETFs, so it won't fall deeply—mainly a shakeout. ETH is more sensitive to interest rates; it will bounce more strongly if dovish, but fall harder if hawkish. MEME and altcoins purely follow sentiment and are controlled by whales; even a slight market tremor can cause huge spikes and crashes. Heavy high-leverage positions are essentially giving money to the market.
Some practical reminders
The mid-term structure hasn't changed; ETF inflows continue, and the Fed only affects short-term rhythm, not the big trend. But don't bet on direction tonight; reduce leverage and trade less. Avoid heavy positions before the speech lands; wait for clear macro signals, options expiry completion, and a clear direction before acting. This is much safer than holding through the noise now.
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP The most divisive thing in the crypto world right now: institutions are fighting among themselves. Bearish Cit (Citi) warns: BTC will fall to the 39,000-53,000 range. Bullish Fundstrator Tom Lee directly counters: BTC will V-shape and surge to 200,000-250,000. One says BTC will be halved, the other says it will double. Same data, completely different conclusions. Who do you believe? Core bearish evidence: the Fed remains hawkish, ETFs continue to bleed, short-term holders lose 95%, and the dollar strengthens. Core bullish evidence: whales stop selling, long-term holders increase their holdings, institutional target prices (Standard Chartered see 100,000, Ark see 300,000) have not collapsed. Don't let extreme predictions lead the narrative. BTC is now repeatedly grinding between 77,000 and 83,000, which is a typical feature of the "final wash." There is only one real turning point signal: ETFs are seeing continuous net inflows again. Until then, don't rush or panic and cut losses.#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？
I think Wash will most likely "hawk openly but dove secretly" tonight, verbally calling for a rate hike while actually leaving the door open for a pause in September.
Although the core PCE is still high at 3.3%, the initial jobless claims dropping to 203,000 is a crucial data point — indicating the job market is already starting to subtly cool down
#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest The idea is clever, but this path won't work. The reason is straightforward:
**You will always be slower than him.**
1. **The time lag is irreversible.** The wallet you track on-chain buying, the data recorded on-chain that you can see, takes at least several minutes to tens of minutes. By then, he has already completed building his position and is waiting to pump.
2. **He has an information advantage, you don't.** As mentioned clearly earlier—his team was already positioning the day before the White House summit, and when the policy news was released, the price was pumped directly. By the time you see the on-chain data, he is already selling. This is not the same starting line.
3. **98% of people are losing money.** 1.48 million wallets bought TRUMP, among which over 980,000 are still at a floating loss, totaling a loss of $3.8 billion. Do you think these people bought by watching on-chain data? They think they are following, but in reality, they are the ones taking the losses.
4. **You can't see how he unloads his position.** He doesn't directly transfer coins to exchanges to dump; instead, he quietly withdraws USDC on Solana's DEX by "adding/removing liquidity." On-chain, his TRUMP balance doesn't change much, but the USDC in the pool has already been moved by him. By the time you notice, he has already left.
5. **80% of the coins are in his affiliated entities' hands.** He can dump or pump at any time. Following his trades means you are opposing a market maker who has information, capital, policy, and technical advantages.
6. **Legal risks.** Trading against the president's wallet, if he is investigated for insider trading, the money connected to you might be frozen directly.
**To put it bluntly:** Trump is a market maker in the crypto market, not a player. Retail investors following the market maker, 99% of the time, end up being eaten by him. He earned $1.4 billion from crypto in 2025; where did that money come from? From those 98% of retail investors losing money.
If you want to make money in crypto, your BTC/SOL spot holdings are the right path—follow the macro trend, not the market maker's gamble. $BTC
BTC follows liquidity, not slogans. When the treasury buys long bonds and the dollar eases a bit, the coin bounces; if interest rates steepen further and risk appetite tightens, 80,000 will still be broken through. AI and macro are both pricing in expensive money. Position sizing should be based on the worst week, not the best week. It's not that we're not bullish, but first we need to distinguish between a rebound and a trend.The following content is purely speculative and baseless guesses; just take a look and rely on the actual situation.
My personal view combination for Wash tonight is:
No rate hike + hawkish speech
Due to the window of Trump's midterm elections, the rate hike operation needs to be restricted.
But the market's ideal expected combination is:
Rate hike + hawkish speech
The next steps I think the US will take are:
1. Redeem long-term US Treasury bonds with short-term US Treasuries
(Splitting long into short)
2. Release rate hike news and expectations, then cut rates at the critical moment of Trump's midterm elections
(Trump wins theory, stock market and crypto frenzy)
3. When the AI sector cannot drive the US stock market and the market experiences a deep V-shaped recovery, use the crypto sector to boost the market
(Trump wins theory ×2, and recently there was indeed such a market boost)
4. Use stablecoins as an asset to increase the amount of pledged US Treasuries through US stock market on-chain methods
(Borrowing method, and short-term debt increases)
5. Wait until the rate cut cycle, the crypto circle is in chaos, entering a bear market
(Tools are discarded after use, consistent with crypto circle rules)
So in summary, this round of DeFi and RWA sectors seem to deserve special attention 🤔.
$BTC $SPY $QQQ
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SOL 's the clear leader right now — up sharply, tagging $110.64, comfortably clear of $100. ETFs just posted their best single day in eight months ($33.49M), and spot volume has beaten derivatives for nine straight weeks. Real demand, not just leverage. But RSI is sitting near 86 — the hottest of any major coin — and the network's fee-burn vote already wrapped, not still pending. Momentum's real. Chasing isn't.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest $SNDK Can you still short or long at the current position?
NVIDIA's earnings prove that the AI direction is sound, but SanDisk's earlier gains were too large, and funds chose to buy on expectations.
The current decline is more due to:
Profit-taking at high levels
Fund adjustments after positive news
Short-term sentiment cooling down
This does not mean the AI storage logic is over.
Key points to watch going forward:
Whether funds in the AI sector will flow back
Whether SanDisk's key support can hold
Whether trading volume decreases during the decline
If volume shrinks and stabilizes, it leans more toward a shakeout after a rise; if volume expands and breaks important support, then beware of a phase trend adjustment.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $SOL